3SOF

GV(amex) - Goldfield Corp.

Sector:    Industrial Goods
Industry:    Heavy Construction
Mkt Cap:       35.34M
Float:            23.53M

Profile:  The Goldfield Corporation provides electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Its principal lines of business include electrical construction and real estate development. It constructs transmission lines, distribution systems and substations, and other electrical installation services for utility systems, and industrial and specialty projects. The company also installs fiber optic cable for fiber optic cable manufacturers, telecommunication companies, and electric utilities. It also engages in the development of residential condominium projects on the east coast of Central Florida. The company was incorporated in 1906 and is based in Melbourne, Florida.

website: http://www.goldfieldcorp.com/

News and Fundamentals

Goldfield just released amazing results on for its 4th quarter and full year 2005:
Links:
Goldfield Swings to 4Q Profit on Sales  (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060327/earns_goldfield.html?.v=1)
Goldfield Records Strong Results for 2005  (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39)

----------------
MELBOURNE, Fla., March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced strong results for the year ended December 31, 2005:

   - Revenue increased 20.4% to $39.3 million from $32.7 million in 2004.
   - Operating income increased to $4.0 million from a $0.5 million loss in
     2004.
   - Net income rose to $2.3 million ($.09 per share) from a $0.4 million
     loss ($.01 loss per share) in 2004.

Results for the fourth quarter of 2005 mirrored the markedly improved yearly results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2005 (compared to like period in 2004):

   - Revenue increased 85% to $10.4 million from $5.6 million.
   - Net income reached $0.9 million ($.03 per share) from a $0.7 million
     loss ($.03 loss per share).
-------------

Crazy! GV has more revenue this year than mkt cap and is growing strong.  This makes GV an amazing value!!  Annualizing the quarter eps gives GV a forward PE of 11.5 not accounting for any growth.  There is even more!  Growth is backed up by a backlog of over 40million!

Looking ahead to 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "We start 2006 on a very solid footing. At January 31, our electrical construction backlog had increased over four-fold to $24 million from $5.8 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog had almost doubled to approximately $16.9 million from $8.4 million at the same point last year. The first phase of our new Pineapple House project is now under construction, with binding sales contracts for approximately two-thirds of the units. We expect to start recognizing revenue from this project during the first quarter of this year."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39

Technicals

A stock with this kind of fundamentals.. and superb technicals.  ;)  Notice on the Long-term chart  what a solid company we are dealing with.  How can we tell this from the chart?  Notice how there is a consistent rise and support with increasing volume on the 10yr chart.  Only really great management can pull that off.  Investors who are holding this stock must be in love.  :-* (they bought in 1999 @ .20 and the stock is 1.38  >:D)  These are investors who will not sell their position.

Long
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19715)

Medium
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19716)

Short
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19717)


Trade Plan

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.

We have a breakout on GV and it will most likely attack the 52-week high soon.  We will place our initial stop around 15-20% away and will look to make a great return.  This stock is set to explode as soon as the word gets out.. right now it is definately a hidden wonder.

We will buy GV @ limit 1.50

GV(amex) - Goldfield Corp.

Sector:    Industrial Goods
Industry:    Heavy Construction
Mkt Cap:       35.34M
Float:            23.53M

Profile:  The Goldfield Corporation provides electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Its principal lines of business include electrical construction and real estate development. It constructs transmission lines, distribution systems and substations, and other electrical installation services for utility systems, and industrial and specialty projects. The company also installs fiber optic cable for fiber optic cable manufacturers, telecommunication companies, and electric utilities. It also engages in the development of residential condominium projects on the east coast of Central Florida. The company was incorporated in 1906 and is based in Melbourne, Florida.

website: http://www.goldfieldcorp.com/

News and Fundamentals

Goldfield just released amazing results on for its 4th quarter and full year 2005:
Links:
Goldfield Swings to 4Q Profit on Sales  (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060327/earns_goldfield.html?.v=1)
Goldfield Records Strong Results for 2005  (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39)

----------------
MELBOURNE, Fla., March 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced strong results for the year ended December 31, 2005:

    - Revenue increased 20.4% to $39.3 million from $32.7 million in 2004.
    - Operating income increased to $4.0 million from a $0.5 million loss in
      2004.
    - Net income rose to $2.3 million ($.09 per share) from a $0.4 million
      loss ($.01 loss per share) in 2004.

Results for the fourth quarter of 2005 mirrored the markedly improved yearly results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2005 (compared to like period in 2004):

    - Revenue increased 85% to $10.4 million from $5.6 million.
    - Net income reached $0.9 million ($.03 per share) from a $0.7 million
      loss ($.03 loss per share).
-------------

Crazy! GV has more revenue this year than mkt cap and is growing strong.  This makes GV an amazing value!!  Annualizing the quarter eps gives GV a forward PE of 11.5 not accounting for any growth.  There is even more!  Growth is backed up by a backlog of over 40million!

Looking ahead to 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "We start 2006 on a very solid footing. At January 31, our electrical construction backlog had increased over four-fold to $24 million from $5.8 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog had almost doubled to approximately $16.9 million from $8.4 million at the same point last year. The first phase of our new Pineapple House project is now under construction, with binding sales contracts for approximately two-thirds of the units. We expect to start recognizing revenue from this project during the first quarter of this year."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060327/nym042.html?.v=39

Technicals

A stock with this kind of fundamentals.. and superb technicals.  ;)  Notice on the Long-term chart  what a solid company we are dealing with.  How can we tell this from the chart?  Notice how there is a consistent rise and support with increasing volume on the 10yr chart.  Only really great management can pull that off.  Investors who are holding this stock must be in love.  :-* (they bought in 1999 @ .20 and the stock is 1.38  >:D)  These are investors who will not sell their position.

Long
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19715)

Medium
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19716)

Short
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19717)


Trade Plan

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.

We have a breakout on GV and it will most likely attack the 52-week high soon.  We will place our initial stop around 15-20% away and will look to make a great return.  This stock is set to explode as soon as the word gets out.. right now it is definately a hidden wonder.

We will buy GV @ limit 1.50

update GV:

Wow!  GV maybe came up on some scans yesterday but today it sent out a beacon.. HUGE volume.. and a tall white candle gaining 14.33%!!  You can be sure traders and investors are now doing their DD and cant wait to buy(they will be our support on dips)

I will not set a stop on this just a hold which we will evaluate every night for now.  The same order will be given on the 3SOV portfolio as well(so far).  I just wish GV would slow a bit.. I chose it for the stock picking contest and we start with the opening price Monday.  >:D

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

Wow!  GV maybe came up on some scans yesterday but today it sent out a beacon.. HUGE volume.. and a tall white candle gaining 14.33%!!  You can be sure traders and investors are now doing their DD and cant wait to buy(they will be our support on dips)

I will not set a stop on this just a hold which we will evaluate every night for now.  The same order will be given on the 3SOF portfolio as well(so far).  I just wish GV would slow a bit.. I chose it for the stock picking contest and we start with the opening price Monday.  >:D

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Great pick G. This popped up on my filter as well yesterday and I was in the middle of analysing this one when i checked my email and saw 3sof noticed this gold mine as well  >:D I hopped in at the open as well.

Haha yah you better hope for it to slow down or you might be buying at the peak of this first wave for the contest ;)

Good luck on the contest 8)

-fous

G - today's high was precisely equal to the Sep 6 high of 1.59 which sets up a double-top scenario. Also today's volume was ~1/3 of volume compared to September which makes a breakthrough more difficult. It will be interesting to see if it can get above and then stay above 1.60.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p10887599459&a=74900752

Quote from: fous on April 21, 2006, 02:28:50 AM
Great pick G. This popped up on my filter as well yesterday and I was in the middle of analysing this one when i checked my email and saw 3sof noticed this gold mine as well  >:D I hopped in at the open as well.

Haha yah you better hope for it to slow down or you might be buying at the peak of this first wave for the contest ;)

Good luck on the contest 8)

-fous

It will be above 3 by contest end.  >:D

Quote from: Lucas Scott on April 21, 2006, 02:34:27 AM
G - today's high was precisely equal to the Sep 6 high of 1.59 which sets up a double-top scenario. Also today's volume was ~1/3 of volume compared to September which makes a breakthrough more difficult. It will be interesting to see if it can get above and then stay above 1.60.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p10887599459&a=74900752

good point, just what I need for a handle dip.. into the contest  ;) but I would argue this move is higher up in the price pattern with a rise in volume starting before this move.. looks very strong to me.

This means I can patiently wait to buy this one when it touches the support line. :)  >:D
- Dhiraj

I just got a limit order filled at 1.48.  I hope it does get past $3!   ;D

Leaira

Quote from: Leaira on April 21, 2006, 10:01:50 AM
I just got a limit order filled at 1.48. I hope it does get past $3! ;D

Leaira

Me too! 

G, looks like somebody wants to spoil your monday contest timing. I am sure you won't be to disappointed. G, I do hope you win the contest though. Some volume just coming in and a 6 cent lift.

uc.

Volume and money coming in quick. Up .18 cents with almost a million shares traded. :o

uc

Very nice pop here. I wonder if news is about to be released. Was looking weak earlier, but this makes my day a lot better.

Coming through strong in the pm!!!!
Woohoo!!!! ;D

Monster move traders!   :o

The market is down heavy.. and GV is up huge.. on big volume again!  >:D

And I dont think this puts me out of the contest.. but it does give everyone else a shot.. maybe.. hehe.  :D  ;)

I am really proud of this one guys... I worked on it longer than usual.. from scan to filter to digging..  This is a clear breakout now and is heading for a blue sky breakout once $2 is reached.  I think it should finally rest @ 5 in 2-3 months.  We will see though..  ;)

wow!! nice day today :o

Man, I missed then enrty for this one!
Hopefully I'll catch up with a good entry soon,

As always, great job G! applause

Bought yesterday! Thanks eliteG!

This reminds me of HOM (a home re-build & restoration company in Southeast US). Bought last year at Dave's recommendation at ~$3, and still holding some of it and closing to $9.

E ....nice pick, I committed $50k @ 1.47 on this, had a very pleasant evening on Fri.......will hold for at least 3 months, like has already been mentioned, this reminds me of HOM



nice one, I've held on to MSPD also, seems to be getting back to my buy in price so disaster averted


cheers all :-)

Hi

This is a great pick. This came up in IBD highly rated stocks under $10!

http://www.investors.com/member/trunder10/

Ths site is free today.

Lalitha

update GV:

Just great!  :o  Rising everyday since we bought and now we are up 28.14% in 4 days!  I would say that GV is rewarding us for sticking with it... but we are not nearly satisfied!  >:D  This type of run seems like a discovery phase for this stock.. new investors are buying in and they dont care how much the stock has risen..they must have a position.  We were counting on that!

So now we have our position way below.. able to withstand a retrace.  I know its hard to believe(after seeing this play) but stocks dont usually go straight up.  ;)  The pattern looks great for continuation but a bit of a pause also looks healthy.

For now we continue to trade this the same on both 3SOF and 3SOV portfolios.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Thx guys  ;D.. glad you are enjoying this one.  It does remind me of HOM valueseeker!  ;)  I mentioned that to the team before we made this selection and they were drooling!  :D


update GV:

Just great!  :o  Rising everyday since we bought and now we are up 28.14% in 4 days!  I would say that GV is rewarding us for sticking with it... but we are not nearly satisfied!  >:D  This type of run seems like a discovery phase for this stock.. new investors are buying in and they dont care how much the stock has risen..they must have a position.  We were counting on that!

So now we have our position way below.. able to withstand a retrace.  I know its hard to believe(after seeing this play) but stocks dont usually go straight up.  ;)  The pattern looks great for continuation but a bit of a pause also looks healthy.

For now we continue to trade this the same on both 3SOF and 3SOV portfolios.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

up 17% ah.  something must be going right.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gv

update GV:

GV is still looking great!  Consolidating high in the pattern.  I drew in the magenta channel in case we need it for support.. that 1.60-1.70 area should show great support and would be nice for a pickup.  ;)

For now we continue to trade this the same on both 3SOF and 3SOV portfolios.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

GV is still looking great!  Consolidating high in the pattern.  I drew in the magenta channel in case we need it for support.. that 1.60-1.70 area should show great support and would be nice for a pickup.  ;)

For now we continue to trade this the same on both 3SOF and 3SOV portfolios.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

What do u think G, am I late for the ride?

Please advice, second opinion would be great for me;)

Quote from: Terlisa on May 02, 2006, 05:32:36 PM
What do u think G, am I late for the ride?

Please advice, second opinion would be great for me;)

As you know Terlisa.. I love GV  ;)  Me and Ramsburg have begun to call it a <<white candle factory>>  :D

Today it broke out of a high and tight consolidation.. and the volume is not extreme(so not a climax move)  As I mention on G-TA GV wll be able to move now on any volume.. the path is clear.  Tomorrow morning early if we dont get too big a gap may be a good place to buy.  I think GV is eyeing $3 and will achieve it steadily.. I will take another look at the fundamental valuation there but eventually GV looks to want 4-5.


update GV:

Come on guys.. Are you loving this?  We are up 43.73% on GV!!  Huge move today.  Here is an updated chart.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

hi,
i also entered late at 1.89 yesterday with a tentative position . would like to add more ,.
maybe if there is a drop close to 2.00 would be a good place
maxi

Quote from: eliteG on May 02, 2006, 07:17:59 PM





Today it broke out of a high and tight consolidation.. and the volume is not extreme(so not a climax move)  As I mention on G-TA GV wll be able to move now on any volume.. the path is clear.  Tomorrow morning early if we dont get too big a gap may be a good place to buy.  I think GV is eyeing $3 and will achieve it steadily.. I will take another look at the fundamental valuation there but eventually GV looks to want 4-5.


update GV:

Come on guys.. Are you loving this?  We are up 43.73% on GV!!  Huge move today.  Here is an updated chart.

I am LOVIN IT. I went in with a double position(13%) since your 1st (and very confident)post. I have been on board with 3SOF for a year now and sooooo happy to have found this place.The site has changed my mentality in the market and no longer afraid to let go of the losers. You win some , you lose some...just learn to win more!

Thanks for this one G.

Also a thanks to Frederick and David for their early diligence to get this thing running. Hopefully the site will be alive and well for some time!

Cheers

Elite G, I'm loving GV and all the great advice you and your peers bestow on us.  Keep up the great job. ::)
EllieMae

Quote from: Terlisa on May 02, 2006, 05:32:36 PM
What do u think G, am I late for the ride?

Please advice, second opinion would be great for me;)

As you know Terlisa.. I love GV  ;)  Me and Ramsburg have begun to call it a <<white candle factory>>  :D

Today it broke out of a high and tight consolidation.. and the volume is not extreme(so not a climax move)  As I mention on G-TA GV wll be able to move now on any volume.. the path is clear.  Tomorrow morning early if we dont get too big a gap may be a good place to buy.  I think GV is eyeing $3 and will achieve it steadily.. I will take another look at the fundamental valuation there but eventually GV looks to want 4-5.


update GV:

Come on guys.. Are you loving this?  We are up 43.73% on GV!!  Huge move today.  Here is an updated chart.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Quote from: basanlas on May 02, 2006, 07:36:42 PM

Quote from: eliteG on May 02, 2006, 07:17:59 PM

update GV:

Come on guys.. Are you loving this?  We are up 43.73% on GV!!  Huge move today.  Here is an updated chart.

I am LOVIN IT. I went in with a double position(13%) since your 1st (and very confident)post. I have been on board with 3SOF for a year now and sooooo happy to have found this place.The site has changed my mentality in the market and no longer afraid to let go of the losers. You win some , you lose some...just learn to win more!

Thanks for this one G.

Also a thanks to Frederick and David for their early diligence to get this thing running. Hopefully the site will be alive and well for some time!

Cheers

Thats great news basanlas!  A double position..hehe.. good eye!  Very glad you have learned to "let go".  ;)

Quote from: elliemae on May 02, 2006, 07:42:35 PM
Elite G, I'm loving GV and all the great advice you and your peers bestow on us. Keep up the great job. ::)
EllieMae

Thank you EllieMae  8)  Hopefully more GV's on the way.  ;)

Hi eliteG:

  I still have NAPS (I palced a stop order @ 4.3, but it's not sold). Today's range is
  4.30-4.66, last trade is 4.31.

  Do you think I should hold it or sell it tomorrow?
 
   Thanks!



 
   

Quote from: learnstock on May 02, 2006, 09:24:51 PM
Hi eliteG:

  I still have NAPS (I palced a stop order @ 4.3, but it's not sold). Today's range is
  4.30-4.66, last trade is 4.31.

  Do you think I should hold it or sell it tomorrow?
 
   Thanks!
   

I dont think NAPS has too much downside left.. but momentum has really been crushed.. unless this bounces hard tomorrow I would be a seller.

The NAPS thread is located here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5437.0

please post any NAPS questions there.  ;)

excellant pick G.....
still hollding strong on this one...
thanks for the good work....
B

Quote from: eliteG on May 02, 2006, 07:17:59 PM
I think GV is eyeing $3 and will achieve it steadily.. I will take another look at the fundamental valuation there but eventually GV looks to want 4-5.

I know I shouldn't start dreaming until the money is in the bag...but I like this kind of prospects  :)

Quote from: eliteG on May 02, 2006, 07:17:59 PM

As you know Terlisa.. I love GV  ;)  Me and Ramsburg have begun to call it a <<white candle factory>>  :D

Hey G ! I just heard «the factory» will increase production level >:D They can't seem to fill the current demand for big whites ;)

Great call G !

well all i can say is a big thanks, i sold my last position in mspd with a loss of 6k may look to buy again at 3.10, GV has made me a packet, i looked at from original post and felt good, bought at 1.52 and currently up 23k, intend to hold for at least 3 months, I had HOM at 3.50 last year and new it was a winner but i sold at 4.80 and never got on it again, i tried to buy on the last dip @ 6.30 couple of weeks ago but my order never got filled, what a shame look at it now, if i had held my 25000 shares 3.50 i'd be very well rewarded right now, looking GV to do similar

good luck guys

Also check out TAGS it's on my radar for 2 weeks now and had a healthy run yesterday

G, I am definitely love'n it. Great call. Thanks!
Up pre-m another 8%.

uc.

Since NXXI has dropped in the last few days, GV is now my best stock!  I'm up 58% on it since buying it at 1.48.  Thanks, G!   ;D

Leaira

Elite,

Any target price for this stock? if not - when would you sell?

Thanks!
Ohad

Quote from: DannyOhad on May 04, 2006, 12:29:13 PM
Elite,

Any target price for this stock? if not - when would you sell?

Thanks!
Ohad

Hey Ohad - For all of our picks if we post no stop and no target.. it means we are really really bullish and want to hold this stock.. as soon as we know of a target or stop our members always.. always know about it before mkt open.  :)

Thanks G.

I am just asking about those stcosk in which we are up by tens of percents - when is your strategy with these stock? Are you putting a stop/limit only when it starts going back down?

Thanks!
Ohad

Quote from: DannyOhad on May 04, 2006, 01:04:35 PM
Thanks G.

I am just asking about those stcosk in which we are up by tens of percents - when is your strategy with these stock? Are you putting a stop/limit only when it starts going back down?

Thanks!
Ohad

I see what you mean.. our analysis and trade plan is based on our entry or entry nearby but even at our huge % gain we are not satisfied and the chart hasn't shown any weakness.. so we dont want to cap it.. nor be stopped out.  So remember to adjust for your risk tolerance.. our plays are 6.66% of capital only.

update GV:

Technical update on the chart.  ;)  We continue to trade this play without a stop or target.. no evidence of weakness.. plenty of support.  81% gain in 12 trading days on the portfolio  :o 

There is a saying I follow: "Take care of your losers, the winners will take care of themselves."  8)

We continue to trade this in the same manner on both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

Technical update on the chart.  ;)  We continue to trade this play without a stop or target.. no evidence of weakness.. plenty of support.  81% gain in 12 trading days on the portfolio  :o 

There is a saying I follow: "Take care of your losers, the winners will take care of themselves."  8)

We continue to trade this in the same manner on both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Yippeeeeee ...applaud once again for the pick G man ;)  I Took my profit today.. thanks ;)

I think it might pullback soon... 3 BIG white candles that's too much excitement for GV, so I took my profit ;)

Good man (or girl) Terlisa! I had greed take over and now it is time for the pain to set in. :)
GV has had some panic attack... falling like a rock. Teaches a good lesson about profit taking.
Cheers to all.

I just took a stab at catching this falling knife. Will $2.25 will prove to be a good pick up point?

Hope it's a chance to pick up or to add.
I'm in @ 2.325 - I missed 2.25 :(

I'm also in but couldn't sell anything quick enough to get closer to the low like you guys.  I know this has had quite a run but that was an impressive shakeout!  Would have been nice to pick up the shares on the retest....

If you look at the charts, this stock is now just above the 5-EMA.  It made a correction down to bounce off what looks like the 10-EMA, then back up above the 5.  But it would have been nice to sell when it was in the 2.80's, then buy back on the shake-out.

Leaira

Well... I put in an order for 10000 shares at $2.25 this morning, after I saw that GIGM took a correction, I was certain GV will also correct.  Guess what?  I got those 10000 shares.  However now that I am back home looking at the chart I am not so sure.  This chart right now is bearish engulfing unless it can move up in the next couple of hours I will sell these 10000 shares before the close.

Funny thing is in both of these stocks the charts were so solid, no sign of weakness at all.  You have 3 white soldiers on one hand and the other makes 3 consecutive 52 week highs, oh well... I think with the help of 3SOF it's the same people into both stocks now, and I expect them to trade alike.


UPDATE:  Looking better now... will probably hold into next week.
UPDATE AGAIN:  Sold 10000 at $2.35  can't stand the engulfing candle.  Will try to pick it up < $2

I sold this morning at $2.79 ::) GV looks like it wants to fight backup.. we may see a hammer today... Looking to buy back close to close if it looks bullish....
Good luck longs.....
Cheers
B

Quote from: berloga on May 05, 2006, 11:33:29 AM
Good man (or girl) Terlisa! I had greed take over and now it is time for the pain to set in. :)
GV has had some panic attack... falling like a rock. Teaches a good lesson about profit taking.
Cheers to all.

I am MAN!!... real man with BIG biceps & triceps ;)
How about changing my name to TERLISO.. so people won't get confuse ;)

Hope you made good money ;)

GV looks a lot like GNBT did on the day it topped out at $5. If it goes the same way, we would get a bounce next Monday and Tuesday to sell into.

GV seems to have bounced off of a support that used to be a resistance and is hovering above the EMA9. GV has earnings (P/E=25) and cash flow. GNBT is a pure speculation that makes money on selling stocks in the open market. I sure hope GV outperforms GNBT, so I'll hold.

Quote from: Terlisa on May 05, 2006, 02:19:03 PM
I am MAN!!... real man with BIG biceps & triceps ;)
How about changing my name to TERLISO.. so people won't get confuse ;)

Hope you made good money ;)

Haha i thought for a while you were a girl too because of the "Lisa" in your name. What is Terlisa anyways?

Sold GV near the open at 2.72 locking in my profits :)

-fous

Quote from: fous on May 05, 2006, 05:55:00 PM

Quote from: Terlisa on May 05, 2006, 02:19:03 PM
I am MAN!!... real man with BIG biceps & triceps ;)
How about changing my name to TERLISO.. so people won't get confuse ;)

Hope you made good money ;)

Haha i thought for a while you were a girl too because of the "Lisa" in your name. What is Terlisa anyways?

Sold GV near the open at 2.72 locking in my profits :)

-fous

Fous, I just reversed my real name ALISTER to TERLISA... simplicity ;)

update GV:

Friday GV continued straight to new highs and then suddenly dropped from 2.70 to 2.30 in a 5-minute span.  This was undisciplined selling, perhaps some tight stops were triggered but investors were wounded after that and the stock could not make much headway.

GV is above all major support.. and has shaken out weak hands very violently.  A violent move up now is not out of the question but the stock may need to consolidate first.  Last week GV had huge range days.. very volatile.. now lets see if it settles down.

We continue to trade this in the same manner on both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

Friday GV continued straight to new highs and then suddenly dropped from 2.70 to 2.30 in a 5-minute span.  This was undisciplined selling, perhaps some tight stops were triggered but investors were wounded after that and the stock could not make much headway.

GV is above all major support.. and has shaken out weak hands very violently.  A violent move up now is not out of the question but the stock may need to consolidate first.  Last week GV had huge range days.. very volatile.. now lets see if it settles down.

We continue to trade this in the same manner on both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Ok...
who has access to a Fibonacci retracement tool.... I'd be interested to see waht the current retrace is... (is there a site that I could get that for free :D)

Thanks in advanced...

B

Quote from: netfishmademerich on May 05, 2006, 01:15:33 PM
UPDATE:  Looking better now... will probably hold into next week.
UPDATE AGAIN:  Sold 10000 at $2.35  can't stand the engulfing candle.  Will try to pick it up < $2

Arrrhg...  I bought a buch earlier at $2.15 and now regretting it.  I have this "caught a falling knife" feeling now.  Should have stuck to my guns and wait for < $2  Oh well... if I don't get green on this position by end of day I will have to sell again only this time, at a loss.

UPDATE:  Looking good towards the close!!!  Tomorrow probably a solid rebound.

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 08, 2006, 01:15:08 PM
who has access to a Fibonacci retracement tool.... I'd be interested to see waht the current retrace is... (is there a site that I could get that for free :D)

I searched on download.com just now and found  "Track n Trade High Finance 0.0.1.26"  (http://www.download.com/Track-n-Trade-High-Finance/3000-2057_4-10530308.html?tag=lst-0-9).

Quote from: Maestro on May 08, 2006, 01:37:26 PM

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 08, 2006, 01:15:08 PM
who has access to a Fibonacci retracement tool.... I'd be interested to see waht the current retrace is... (is there a site that I could get that for free :D)

I searched on download.com just now and found  "Track n Trade High Finance 0.0.1.26"  (http://www.download.com/Track-n-Trade-High-Finance/3000-2057_4-10530308.html?tag=lst-0-9).

Thanks man....

Stockcharts.com has a fib tool as part of the free charting.  The 38.2% level is at 2.06 and so far we have a low of 2.10 for today so that's pretty close.  Volume picked up a little at that point so let's see if it turns into a bounce.

I have a feeling we might see a 50% or more retrace.. let's see... waiting for a bullish close to reenter :P
thanks for the chart basonista
Good luck all
B....

Oh so that's what it is.  This is the tool from Power E*Trade Pro

$2.00 is the 50% retrace and also a good area for support. Maybe catch an early dip at $2.01 and ride it back up to $2.50 later this week.

update GV:

GV is still hanging around after profit taking.. volume is still coming in nice and heavy.  We got a tiny candle inside day today so we will be on the watch for an expansion move.  GV has great fundamentals and strong support 2 and below.. I am thinking GV is due for some kind of  news/pr release.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

GV is still hanging around after profit taking.. volume is still coming in nice and heavy.  We got a tiny candle inside day today so we will be on the watch for an expansion move.  GV has great fundamentals and strong support 2 and below.. I am thinking GV is due for some kind of  news/pr release.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

Have the employees at the White Candle Factory gone on strike? Damm unions! >:(

We are getting some after hours action! Lucas, I think the white candle factory is on an afternoon shift.

uc.

(http://z16.org/forum/images/smiles/PDT_au.gif)

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060510/flw008.html?.v=56

Goldfield Records Strong First Quarter Results

Wow!  Another earnings surprise!  I guess these AMEX stocks don't keep the market informed as well as NASDAQ stocks when they plan to release earnings.  But anyway, this should get things going again!  See you at $3+!!   ;D

Leaira

Quote from: usedcasting on May 10, 2006, 04:23:50 PM
We are getting some after hours action! Lucas, I think the white candle factory is on an afternoon shift.

The union busters showed up ;D

Quote from: eliteG on May 09, 2006, 09:20:56 PM

update GV:

I am thinking GV is due for some kind of  news/pr release.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

G,

I think you were right. Just released record earnings. Hope to make some green!

wow ur like an oracle... f"ing A man.... talk about JIT....
oh wait... i loaded up today from the money i had left from my TMTA loss :'(
Good work......
>:D ;D

.

Quote from: basanlas on May 10, 2006, 06:23:39 PM

Quote from: eliteG on May 09, 2006, 09:20:56 PM

update GV:

I am thinking GV is due for some kind of  news/pr release.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

G,

I think you were right. Just released record earnings. Hope to make some green!

awesome news out:
Goldfield Records Strong First Quarter Results
Wednesday, May 10, 2006 16:13 ET

MELBOURNE, Fla., May 10, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (AMEX: GV), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced, for three months ended March 31, 2006, the strongest operating results in many years:

* Revenue increased 70% to $14.0 million from $8.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Operating income increased to $1.9 million from $0.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Net income rose to $1.1 million ($.04 per share) from $0.1 million ($.01 per share) in the like period of 2005.

Commenting on the first quarter results, John H. Sottile, president of Goldfield, said, "Both our electrical construction and real estate development segments contributed to our strongest operating results in many years. In the electrical construction segment, revenue increased to $10.5 million from $7.1 million and operating income more than tripled to $1.8 million from $.6 million. In the real estate development segment, revenue increased to $3.5 million from $1.1 million and operating income almost tripled to $0.9 million from $0.3 million. Electrical construction results benefited from the efficiency of larger projects, and real estate development results benefited from the commencement of revenue recognition for the first phase of our new Pineapple House project."

Looking ahead in 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "First quarter results get us off to a strong start. At March 31, our electrical construction backlog has increased nearly three-fold to $21.7 million from $7.7 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog has increased to $12.7 million from $10.5 million at the same point last year. During the balance of 2006, it is currently estimated that substantially all of the electrical construction backlog and approximately 70% of the real estate segment backlog (approximately $9.0 million) will be recognized as revenue. Actual timing of revenue recognition may vary as the result of project delays and other factors."

&
AH action:

GOLDFIELD CP (RT-ECN)    
Symbol: GV
Last Trade: 2.53 May 10
After Hours Change: Up 0.28 (12.44%)
Today's Change: Up 0.26 (11.45%)
Bid:  2.50
Ask: 2.53

Positive outcome or not, I don't think I will trade amex again. Do not like earnings surprises.
Would a truly reputable company not give notice. GV reported it's prior quarter only a month and a half ago  :-\. Maybe I am fooling myself. Any opinions.

uc.

one think i do believe, nobody new what the figures would be prior to company release....I like that, very cleanly done

Why no volume?  Anyone know?

Quote from: signpro on May 11, 2006, 09:56:49 AM
Why no volume?  Anyone know?

I was just posting that as you were... it almost seems like it is halted, but I dont see news to that effect yet.

I read on yahoo that the AMEX is having problems.

Low volume. I think what we are seeing is a real fight between the bulls and the bears. The two sides are holding strong. Go bulls Go

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on May 11, 2006, 10:18:34 AM
Low volume.

But a nice gap up that hopefully won't be closed today.

Quote from: signpro on May 11, 2006, 10:07:55 AM
I read on yahoo that the AMEX is having problems.

Ah, that makes the most sense, I saw some other stocks also behave a bit odd after GV, but it seems to be trading again now.  Go GV!!! >:D

i forgot to place a tight stop, i'm undisciplined. boo 15% gain gone

market is down.. this should rally up as soon as we see green on the index....
booya... hold strong boys...

Too bad GV had to report great earnings on such a bad market day. Just can't predict the market sometimes.
I sold my entire position early on at 2.46 with the hopes of buying back in later at a lower price.
In fact, i've sold everything this morning and am sitting on cash waiting for the markets to turn.
Some are saying this could be the start of a major market correction. Could be time to think short.

I sold too. The White Candle Factory churned out a big Black candle today, which indicates there may be a defect in their production equipment. Either that or the scabs aren't doing as good a job as the regular employees.  I think they'll get the problem fixed, but GV could retrace to $2.00 in the meantime.

Quote from: calguy on May 11, 2006, 01:47:47 PM
Some are saying this could be the start of a major market correction. Could be time to think short.

Well, some people have been saying that every time the market corrects 1 - 2% over the last 4 years. If they are right for the first time in 100 predictions, I can't give them any credit.

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 10, 2006, 08:55:09 PM
wow ur like an oracle...

I better be!  Certified Wing Chun Stock Oracle 3rd degree.  Only $19.99 for 4th degree but with the market move today .. it may take some time.


prophecy GV:

GV closed up 5.78%.. sure it was higher today but lets attempt to throw that out as weak hands, that needed to be disposed of for the stock to go higher, got out.  The market had a huge down day.  2% down is serious and most everybody was in pain.  We will not let go of such a quality play so easily.  We are looking for GV to get its second wind.

I know a lot of you have been short-term trading GV.. thats great.. as long as you are making money  ;) that is our main goal.. finding opportunity for you guys. 

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: n/a
Target: n/a
------

2.09 LOD at this point. This is were it bounced last time, hopefully will do the same here of markets improve on Monday.
Bought back in a little too early at 2.26, but only half of my position. Will add more later depending on how things shake out.
A great pick and great potential, just dealing with terrible market conditions right now.

Ok - so anyone know why the 20% drop in 1 minute?

No news on Yahoo or my etrade screen, hope this is an error, it sucks cause this was the one stock proppoing up a sucky day for me...

That quick drop shows undisciplined selling.. or perhaps selling on purpose to create cheaper shares(stop level triggered).. GV should soon find some strong support.

So do you think it is manipulation or just some moron selling 100K shares at market?

please remember:
Goldfield Records Strong First Quarter Results
Wednesday, May 10, 2006 16:13 ET

MELBOURNE, Fla., May 10, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (AMEX: GV), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced, for three months ended March 31, 2006, the strongest operating results in many years:

* Revenue increased 70% to $14.0 million from $8.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Operating income increased to $1.9 million from $0.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Net income rose to $1.1 million ($.04 per share) from $0.1 million ($.01 per share) in the like period of 2005.

Commenting on the first quarter results, John H. Sottile, president of Goldfield, said, "Both our electrical construction and real estate development segments contributed to our strongest operating results in many years. In the electrical construction segment, revenue increased to $10.5 million from $7.1 million and operating income more than tripled to $1.8 million from $.6 million. In the real estate development segment, revenue increased to $3.5 million from $1.1 million and operating income almost tripled to $0.9 million from $0.3 million. Electrical construction results benefited from the efficiency of larger projects, and real estate development results benefited from the commencement of revenue recognition for the first phase of our new Pineapple House project."

Looking ahead in 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "First quarter results get us off to a strong start. At March 31, our electrical construction backlog has increased nearly three-fold to $21.7 million from $7.7 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog has increased to $12.7 million from $10.5 million at the same point last year. During the balance of 2006, it is currently estimated that substantially all of the electrical construction backlog and approximately 70% of the real estate segment backlog (approximately $9.0 million) will be recognized as revenue. Actual timing of revenue recognition may vary as the result of project delays and other factors."

Quote from: Loffigus on May 15, 2006, 10:00:45 AM
So do you think it is manipulation or just some moron selling 100K shares at market?

The symptoms are the same regardless.. and in both cases we want the antidote(support)

Nobody at Yahoo MB has seen any news, and the only theory over there is that it could be related to the comodities drop (either due to program selling for stocks with "gold" in the name, or people who actually bought GV because they thought it was a gold stock).  TGB, Taseko mines, got clocked with a similar quick drop almost at the same time, so maybe there could be some validity to this.

In any case, with no news and this kind of drop, I added at 1.93.

I have also taken advantage of this sudden selloff to get back into GV.  Sometimes you have to take advantage when stocks are put on sale to such an extent.   :)  Also bought NXG although I'm not as confident there.  ;)  I know gold will start moving up again after this correction but this one could really be volatile (like GV hasn't  ;).

Quote from: tokyopua on May 15, 2006, 10:11:42 AM
Nobody at Yahoo MB has seen any news, and the only theory over there is that it could be related to the comodities drop (either due to program selling for stocks with "gold" in the name, or people who actually bought GV because they thought it was a gold stock).  TGB, Taseko mines, got clocked with a similar quick drop almost at the same time, so maybe there could be some validity to this.

In any case, with no news and this kind of drop, I added at 1.93.

"In any case, with no news and this kind of drop, I added at 1.93."

very cool under pressure toky.. have to applaud that  8)

Quote from: tokyopua on May 15, 2006, 10:11:42 AM
people who actually bought GV because they thought it was a gold stock

You mean this is not a gold stock!?!?  Oh.. the deception!!!

and I just collected another 10K shares thinking it WAS a gold stock.  Oh well...

I'll have to sell some body parts soon to buy more GV.
Who needs an extra kidney when you have a billion dollars :)

The quick drop was not so steep if you measure it from Friday's close rather than the gap open. There was no reason for a gap up. That was just undisciplined buying. Followed by undisciplined, but predictable, selling. Makes the chart messy.

Quote from: eliteG on May 15, 2006, 10:20:15 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on May 15, 2006, 10:11:42 AM
Nobody at Yahoo MB has seen any news, and the only theory over there is that it could be related to the comodities drop (either due to program selling for stocks with "gold" in the name, or people who actually bought GV because they thought it was a gold stock).  TGB, Taseko mines, got clocked with a similar quick drop almost at the same time, so maybe there could be some validity to this.

In any case, with no news and this kind of drop, I added at 1.93.

"In any case, with no news and this kind of drop, I added at 1.93."

very cool under pressure toky.. have to applaud that  8)

Thanks G, looks like I could have gotten a slightly better price as its now at 1.90, but down this much I have to try to get back up when good stocks are discounted.   Have a bid in for CHID at 0.82, and also trying for a bounce play that I got into today on news from ESCL, working nicely so far.  

Just trying to get out of this crazy hole the last few days has created, good luck to everyone else who is undoubtedly in the same situation!

i have the same bad habit of catching falling knives. I thought GV at 2.25 was too good to pass up. I'm going to hold GV and hope that when gold prices rise, it will bring in some people who havn't done their research on what the company actually does tehee

Off Topic, but is anyone else besides me playing ESCL? 

I saw it last week and put it on my watch list because it got hammered down horribly on an investigation for fraud.  Today they came out with a written statement negating that, and I got in at 7.7 and its now at 10.87.  If it can get back to where it was before the news it would be at 28, but I have never played a rebound that has been this successful, so I dont know where to get out.  All I know for sure is that this is my one blessing in this otherwise crazy ugly day.

Update:  Sold today for a quick $2K profit, have no idea where this thing goes from here...

i get the impression the MM's are just walking this down because there is no buying pressure, the latter i don't understand, it's a waiting game, i think the next thing we might see it an upgrade or coverage which should draw attention here again.

Quote from: netfishmademerich on May 15, 2006, 10:25:15 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on May 15, 2006, 10:11:42 AM
people who actually bought GV because they thought it was a gold stock

You mean this is not a gold stock!?!?  Oh.. the deception!!!

and I just collected another 10K shares thinking it WAS a gold stock.  Oh well...

GV is not a gold stock!
As Always, do ur own DD before buying & selling ;)


GV DETAILS   
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Heavy Construction
Full Time Employees: 123

The Goldfield Corporation, incorporated in 1906, is a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the Southeast United States. The company specializes in installing and maintaining electrical transmission lines for a wide range of electric utilities. Goldfield is also involved in the development of high-end waterfront condominium projects on Florida's east coast

I think we just got off on the topic of gold stocks because it was brought up about the yahoo  MB posts.  I'm sure everyone here knows it is not a gold stock.  Although, it has a nice name for a gold stock (http://z16.org/forum/images/smiles/slap.gif)  (slap me)

Anyone think  people are afraid of this stock because of real estate exposure (they are doing well there currently)?

This sell-off is way, way, ridiculously overdone to say the least!   :P

I would be willing to bet that many people trading this stock actually think that it is a gold stock, judging from the name of the company.  A 30% drop after reporting record earnings makes absolutely no sense.  I will continue to ride this stock up and down because I think it will eventually trade for what it's worth.

Leaira

An upgrade would be really nice to bustout to a new high..... ;D

Quote from: Leaira on May 15, 2006, 04:57:09 PM
This sell-off is way, way, ridiculously overdone to say the least!   :P

I would be willing to bet that many people trading this stock actually think that it is a gold stock, judging from the name of the company.  A 30% drop after reporting record earnings makes absolutely no sense.  I will continue to ride this stock up and down because I think it will eventually trade for what it's worth.

Leaira

Buy the rumor, sell the news? The stock did almost triple in a 6 week period.

I'd bet a lot of traders of this stock are technical traders who don't know what the company does nor do they care.  They bought the breakout and sold the breakdown. Also momo-riders who bought high and sold higher. I think there were probably more of these types than traders thinking it was a gold play. JMHO!

update GV:

Well GV is not making it easy.. this has been a 50% pullback on its run and we are expecting support to come in.  The market may not have support in mind so we need a stop just in case something is going on behind the scenes.  We'll start off right around our entry and hopefully get to move this up soon.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: STOP @ 1.55
Target: n/a
------

update GV:

Well GV is not making it easy.. this has been a 50% pullback on its run and we are expecting support to come in.  The market may not have support in mind so we need a stop just in case something is going on behind the scenes.  We'll start off right around our entry and hopefully get to move this up soon.

------
Position: bought GV @ 1.475 on 4/20/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: STOP @ 1.55
Target: n/a
------

unfortunately with my stupidity and some bad luck and poor choices i have managed to loose 35k on this stock, last week i was up 38k when the stock was trading at 2.80, i was going to sell but decided not too, i went out to shop came back 10 mins later and it had dropped to the 2.20 area, in my wisdom i bought another 60,000 at 2.25, the money came from my broker allowing me (T3) 3 days to settle, the stock rebounded to the 2.50 area but i still didn't sell, another stupid move, then the market crashed when i was out shopping, I have now had to cover the borrowed money as the 3 days where up, my broker is being unforgiving and is forcing me to sell some 80,000 shares at to cover the 151k i owe them at an average price of 1.84, i shifted most of them yesterday as the stock moved down and down, I have another 40k to sell today................total loss approx 35k from being up 38k a week ago a swing of almost 90,000 dollars


yes this is a nightmare and has caused me great pain, I have nobody to blame but myself.

you can all imagine i am devestated right now, how can anyone be so stupid.


my only hope is that the stock will go up slightly today allowing me a litte loose change, but when you put so many shares up for sale it has the effect of driving the price down, the MM's when not helping either, every time I placed an order they dropped the price down below it with a couple of hundred shares, I keep hoping I'm going to waken up from this nightmare.

I screwed up

just thought i'd share


PS I wouldn't have been worried if it had been my own money, I'd have just held and waited for the rebound, but my broker wanted their money back after 3 days

so if anyone would like to drive the price up a little today, it would be very welcome


PS PS, I also think the AMEX traders are crooks lining their own pockets, i believe they somehow new my predicament and played me, i placed orders yesterday at 2.03 when the level 2 bid and ask was 2.04 and 2.05, my 2.03 never got filled........go figure


sorry for the long post but i just needed the share my stupidity with the world.

any possibility of an update with charts on this stock to give me a better idea of where it's at today, it seemed to have strong support at around 1.75.

This is a cruel game and lessons seem to be learnt only the hard way. I am sorry for your loss.

Take it easy on yourself

uc.

Quote from: gharknes on May 17, 2006, 08:41:14 AM

sorry for the long post but i just needed the share my stupidity with the world.

Gharknes, if you are still in the market following this situation I suggest you read up on position sizing and risk and money management. Look at Alexander Elder Trading for a Living he details a very good money mangement approach. Also re-read some of your posts as I remember earlier posts of yours detailing how many shares you had bought and how much money that was in terms of profit etc etc. Basically you were trading with big position sizes which were an extension of your ego (a very common thing for private traders, hey me included every one gets seduced by that dark side). That is always a recipe for disaster in the market.

Well good luck.

not sure what you mean about my ego, my original order got filled at 1.52 just under 50k



i held a total of 97100 shares as of monday, still own 44k, the figures in previous post where off the top of my head (which is in my ass right now hiding from the world

i will come out of this still holding around 20,000 shares

Risk management is one of the first things I learned before starting to trade.  Except for the beginning when I only had a little bit of money to invest, I was making risky daytrades to build capital.  I could have lost everything on those trades.  But now I have enough to apply the rules.  I never invest any more than 8% of my entire account on any one stock, no matter how bullish everything appears to be.  I also never use margin.  In fact, I always thought you couldn't even buy a stock on margin if it was under $5. 

I'm still holding this stock from $1.48 on the same day 3SOF bought it.  I'm long-term bullish on it, and I will ride it out.  Good luck!

Leaira

When the markets are down so much, it pulls down so many stocks with it, that people forget the value of them.  I think when the carnage is over and people realize how undervalued some stocks have become, they will rush to buy them and the prices will be back up rather quickly.  If you are still holding, it's probably not a good idea to sell here unless something has changed fundamentally with the stock.  All of the 3SOF stocks have not changed fundamentally, yet.   So they should all rebound (this is the hope!)

But this stock did change fundamentally last week, remember?  We reported record profit for the quarter.  Something is definitely wrong if after a company reports good earnings, guidance, growth, etc., we are able to buy shares at a better price than before such an announcement.  In my opinion, this stock is a screaming buy down at this level!  Not to mention that it's at support.  I will hold.

Leaira

Quote from: Leaira on May 17, 2006, 04:52:16 PM
Something is definitely wrong if after a company reports good earnings, guidance, growth, etc., we are able to buy shares at a better price than before such an announcement.

Yes... and that is why I did not hold.  I had sold out yesterday whatever remaining shares I had.  I think the real estate exposure of GV makes people nervous with the preceived cooling of housing from rising interest rates.

SOURCE: Form 4

ISSUER: GOLDFIELD CORP
SYMBOL: GV

FILER: MARINO AL M
TITLE: Director

DATE               TRANSACTION             SHARES       PRICE            VALUE
5/15/06-5/16/06    Sale                   220,000       $1.96         $432,168

OWNERSHIP: 280,000 (Direct)  440,000 (Indirect)

  The Form 4 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by insiders
  to report transactions in their companies' shares.  Open market purchases
  and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

Insider Data Source: The Washington Service
                     ([email protected] or 301-913-5100)


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  05-17-06 1640ET

16:40 051706

Another bad day for GV, though you have to figure it was due in part to the overall market, no question about that.  I cut my position in the AM as part of an overall slash and burn, but still holding the rest.

Fib retracement to 61.8% would be $1.75 (as measured from the short term run from the 1.16 base to the 2.7 apex), so that should serve as the next support, as to some weak extent it did today.  Next support after that is 1.64 .

Unfortunately,
I really think there is toooo much stupid money in this stock... i think there are a majority of holders that think GV is gold related.. I honestly don't blade the .. come on now goldfeild(GV)...  simply confused with gold feiilds(GFI)....

It was obvious... especially today when I had some free time at work, i monitored gold activity closly, in the morning... gold was showing + movemnet... GV held... then sometime in the evening... GV started tanking... so did BGO and GOLD and other gold stock...

despite this... I think GV has finally touched its support... it closed rigth at it's support today... tomorrow will be the day that will test its support.. only time can tell...

If it closes green tomorrow after a bounce from its support I will be back in....

Today, the qqqq closed slightly above or rigth at its support.... Tomorrow will be the day we find out if this is indeed the support or not..
Goodluck all...
B

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 17, 2006, 09:35:34 PM
Unfortunately, I really think there is toooo much stupid money in this stock... i think there are a majority of holders that think GV is gold related..

Well here's the thing.  If there really are these many people who think this is a gold stock, then probably without them the stock price would not have climbed as high as it did.  This works both ways I think.

True.. maybe not...
The heavy construction sector in placed #1 in all industries... that said, I dont think so...


cheers...
B

hi,
gv chart has broken down with lower tops lower bottoms. i could be wrong but i see more down side for this issue,
maxi

lower tops lower bottoms... i am interested to learn... could u pls explain...

thanks
B

I no longer think the price action here is due to people thinking this was a gold stock.  Doubtless there were some of those people, but the stock would not have risen so high so fast just on account of that.   Even the gold stocks I follow didnt really move as fast as GV did.  I feel guilty for bringing up this theory from the Yahoo MB, but I feel that Lucas Scott explained things more correctl in his post in this thread, the big drop that day was due to GV getting opened up too high for no reason, then dropping with the rest of the market. 

What is clear to me now is that almost all stocks that rose fast recently are getting clocked by this market.  And its just a matter of speed.  I think we would all panic less if the stock hit its 62.8 Fibonacci retracement after 3 weeks instead of one week (as per my post below, that is basically where we are).  Same thing to some extent with CHID, BTW, also close to a fib retracement level.

The fundamentals of these companies have not changed in the last week, but those wilth profits chose to take them, and likely we should have as well.  I did the intermediate step and trimmed positions to more manageable sizes.

I believe that if the market bounces tomorrow, this stock will bounce right with it.  To me, its more of a gamble on what the market will do. 

None of this is to say the stock wont go down more soon, the market is always right, and there may be too much technical damage done.  That part I will look forward to hearning about from EliteG soon  :)

                open                close

17-May-06 1.89  2.08 1.73  1.75    532,500  
16-May-06 1.95 2.05  1.74  1.83    813,200
15-May-06 2.38 2.38  1.86  1.92    1,184,600  
12-May-06 2.40 2.41  2.0 9  2.16   929,900  
11-May-06 2.62 2.62  2.31  2.38     1,105,700  
 
lower tops lower bottoms refers to the open and the closing price. since the 11th may we have seen the stock   open lower than the previous day and close lower than the previous day. in the chart above you can see it stepping down.
tomorrow will show if it can rally but as i said above it looks to be breaking down.
maxi

Quote from: gharknes on May 17, 2006, 08:41:14 AM
unfortunately with my stupidity and some bad luck and poor choices i have managed to loose 35k on this stock, last week i was up 38k when the stock was trading at 2.80, i was going to sell but decided not too, i went out to shop came back 10 mins later and it had dropped to the 2.20 area, in my wisdom i bought another 60,000 at 2.25, the money came from my broker allowing me (T3) 3 days to settle, the stock rebounded to the 2.50 area but i still didn't sell, another stupid move, then the market crashed when i was out shopping, I have now had to cover the borrowed money as the 3 days where up, my broker is being unforgiving and is forcing me to sell some 80,000 shares at to cover the 151k i owe them at an average price of 1.84, i shifted most of them yesterday as the stock moved down and down, I have another 40k to sell today................total loss approx 35k from being up 38k a week ago a swing of almost 90,000 dollars

Ghark - one thing that caught my attention is that you seem to do a lot of shopping. As for the $35k, seems like it should not be a big deal. That's a relative figure. On a percentage basis, you're down no more than 10%. You bought at $1.47 and added another position or two at $2.25, right? Which puts your average price somewhere between $1.85 and $2.00. A 10% loss isn't bad.

Quote from: Leaira on May 17, 2006, 04:52:16 PM
But this stock did change fundamentally last week, remember?  We reported record profit for the quarter.  Something is definitely wrong if after a company reports good earnings, guidance, growth, etc., we are able to buy shares at a better price than before such an announcement.  In my opinion, this stock is a screaming buy down at this level!  Not to mention that it's at support.  I will hold.

Leaira

It's not all that unusual for this to drop after a nice earnings report. We have to remember that GV has more than doubled in price and profit taking can and should be expected. When a stock rises fast before earnings then a lot of the value has already been "priced in" to the stock. Unless they posted totally blow out numbers in a surging market, the stock is not going to explode any more. I sold my entire position after earnings were released when GV started to go down after gapping up. I bought half back at 2.26, thinking it would turn. It didn't and i ended up selling again yesterday at 1.88 for a loss. I bought back at the close at 1.75, so selling ealry and buying back later cut some of my losses. GV has been gapping up every morning and fading out as the day goes on, so my plan is to sell for a small profit if that is the case today. Also keep in mind that the next dollar level, $3 in this case, is a natural psycological resistance point in the minds of many traders. Long term this stock looks great, but good traders should take profits when they are there and buy back when the opportunity presents itself.

Well, I've had it with this one if it goes lower than 1.60...there are better plays out there.

In at a 1.62, I'll give this a short leash

3Stocks stop got taken out. GV bounced off the 50 dma and is at 1.60x1.61. It looks like a speculative buy at this level. $1.64 puts me in. That price pops it above the trading range it's been in since 10 am EST.

I thought the stop is 1.55??

I decided to sell at 1.70 today.  At least I have a little profit.  Better than the losses I've been taking on everything else I've been trading lately.

Leaira

Quote from: Lucas Scott on May 18, 2006, 11:36:08 AM
3Stocks stop got taken out. GV bounced off the 50 dma and is at 1.60x1.61. It looks like a speculative buy at this level. $1.64 puts me in. That price pops it above the trading range it's been in since 10 am EST.

I don't think 3OF stop got taken out; I haven't seen this trading below $1.58; the $1.50 LOD is incorrect.....so far.

Quote from: bocasva on May 18, 2006, 12:15:30 PM

Quote from: Lucas Scott on May 18, 2006, 11:36:08 AM
3Stocks stop got taken out. GV bounced off the 50 dma and is at 1.60x1.61. It looks like a speculative buy at this level. $1.64 puts me in. That price pops it above the trading range it's been in since 10 am EST.

I don't think 3OF stop got taken out; I haven't seen this trading below $1.58; the $1.50 LOD is incorrect.....so far.

Our stop has not been taken out yet.  I see the 1.50 trade but it seems to be an error.  ;)

Hi G, before 3sof is taken out here (hopefully not) could you please review what you see at this point. You said the other day that a drop like this may indicate a problem behind the scene. Is there still a possibility that this is the great value that you once thought. That long term chart shows great support at about 50 cents.

Thanks for your help!

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on May 18, 2006, 12:58:14 PM
Hi G, before 3sof is taken out here (hopefully not) could you please review what you see at this point. You said the other day that a drop like this may indicate a problem behind the scene. Is there still a possibility that this is the great value that you once thought. That long term chart shows great support at about 50 cents.

Thanks for your help!

uc.

Hey UC -  at this point the stock has to be run on a technical basis because fundamentals may have changed behind the scenes and we have to protect ourselves.  I hope we get to stay in GV today.. I think the volume is acting correct for a support type move.  It is going to be close.  C'mon GV!  :)

Quote from: Leaira on May 18, 2006, 12:05:02 PM
I decided to sell at 1.70 today.  At least I have a little profit.  Better than the losses I've been taking on everything else I've been trading lately.

Leaira
[/quote

I didn't get the opening gap I was looking for so I too sold at 1.70 before I took any more losses on this. A great 1st trade and then 2 losing trades. I think this goes lower before going higher. All in all I made a nice profit from this pick and hope to profit more in the future. Just going to stay away from it for now until it starts another run.

It's sad that just about a week or so ago, this was a 50% gain in the portfolio, and now they may have to sell it dirt cheap.

Quote from: Loffigus on May 18, 2006, 02:15:07 PM
It's sad that just about a week or so ago, this was a 50% gain in the portfolio, and now they may have to sell it dirt cheap.

Not just 50%.... GV went high @ $2.84 that should have been a 91% profit for 3SOF that's a BIG gain & they let it slipped away from their hands.... :(

Quote from: Terliso on May 18, 2006, 02:24:11 PM

Quote from: Loffigus on May 18, 2006, 02:15:07 PM
It's sad that just about a week or so ago, this was a 50% gain in the portfolio, and now they may have to sell it dirt cheap.

Not just 50%.... GV went high @ $2.84 that should have been a 91% profit for 3SOF that's a BIG gain & they let it slipped from their hands.... :(

From what I understood from EliteG's post this baby hasnt been sold yet.

Never fall in love with a stock..... 8) ....i am out of the market since monday...i am on a holiday next week. We go to cyprus...well nice swimming lying on the beach.....get the head free from the stock market.....i won t touch a computer for 1 week...Cheers

I am also disappointed about the price action, but has something changed the last 8 days?

Goldfield Records Strong First Quarter Results

MELBOURNE, Fla., May 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (AMEX: GV), a leading provider of electrical construction services in the southeastern United States and a developer of condominiums, today announced, for three months ended March 31, 2006, the strongest operating results in many years:

* Revenue increased 70% to $14.0 million from $8.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Operating income increased to $1.9 million from $0.2 million in the like period of 2005.

* Net income rose to $1.1 million ($.04 per share) from $0.1 million ($.01 per share) in the like period of 2005.

Commenting on the first quarter results, John H. Sottile, president of Goldfield, said, "Both our electrical construction and real estate development segments contributed to our strongest operating results in many years. In the electrical construction segment, revenue increased to $10.5 million from $7.1 million and operating income more than tripled to $1.8 million from $.6 million. In the real estate development segment, revenue increased to $3.5 million from $1.1 million and operating income almost tripled to $0.9 million from $0.3 million. Electrical construction results benefited from the efficiency of larger projects, and real estate development results benefited from the commencement of revenue recognition for the first phase of our new Pineapple House project."

Looking ahead in 2006, Mr. Sottile commented, "First quarter results get us off to a strong start. At March 31, our electrical construction backlog has increased nearly three-fold to $21.7 million from $7.7 million at the same point in 2005 and our real estate segment's backlog has increased to $12.7 million from $10.5 million at the same point last year. During the balance of 2006, it is currently estimated that substantially all of the electrical construction backlog and approximately 70% of the real estate segment backlog (approximately $9.0 million) will be recognized as revenue. Actual timing of revenue recognition may vary as the result of project delays and other factors."

hi,
fundamentals of a company do not matter if there is fear in the market.
people take their money out and wait. there is quite a few traders here doing the same so you can imagine this is happening all over the world . so the market must go down if traders are going to cash.
maxi

Isn't this "Sell in May and Stay Away"?

Quote from: Terliso on May 18, 2006, 02:24:11 PM
GV went high @ $2.84 that should have been a 91% profit for 3SOF that's a BIG gain & they let it slipped away from their hands.... :(

I can understand holding on in the Value portfolio, but profits should have been taken in the Fire portfolio, either through use of a trailing stop or the morning after the 3 White Soldiers formation completed (which would have been an exit at $2.70). What's done is done though.

Quote from: Lucas Scott on May 18, 2006, 11:36:08 AM
3Stocks stop got taken out. GV bounced off the 50 dma and is at 1.60x1.61. It looks like a speculative buy at this level. $1.64 puts me in. That price pops it above the trading range it's been in since 10 am EST.

Stockcharts shows a low of $1.50 but appears to be a bad print. Yahoo Finance shows $1.56. I have emailed Stockcharts to fix it, so it should be corrected tomorrow. They go by Yahoo Finance in these matters. 3Stocks is still long and so am I. Per my post I bought at $1.64. 

Lucas, glad to see you are a believer  ;). I do like that for the first time in a while there are bids at a decent size at around $1.60 this mornings. Hopefully we have found some support.

This is the chart I have been clinging to.

uc.

Price hit 1.55 a number of times, has the 3SOF position been sold?

I'm pretty sure it is.  I don't even see any $1.55 bids anymore.

And to think, a week ago they almost had 100% gain on this stock, and today they are selling with just around 5%.   There has got to be a better way to protect profits, I can understand a long-term trading strategy to hold through a big correction, but short term trading should never allow the loss of that much profit.  Just my opinion.

seems like the market wants to bounce back, i don't really see the point of selling now, i'm going to wait it out another week and hope hurricanes damage a lot of electrical lines.

Absolutely guys.  This trade was mishandled and this was severly amplified by a market top.  Looking back on it(hind sight is 20/20) I would have liked to sell for the 3SOF portfolio after the 3 white candles and maybe 1/2 for 3SOV.  This stock had a severe cutback and did not respond to any support levels.  Again the market fell dramatically during this time and this could not be accounted for. 

Profit should have been protected differently but we took a risk and it did not pay off.  With 6.66% of our portfolio in this play we thought this risk might pay off.  Instead of dwelling on how this play was mishandled we should concentrate on what we can learn from this.  And so this trade going from over 90% to a small gain will make us better traders(better big portfolio traders).

The atmosphere after the market dives is not pleasant.  I am hoping this community can now concentrate on what we should do.. and not what we shouldn't have done.  This will not be the last +90% trade.

3SOF will be unveiling some new things in the near future(new and improved services).. I think you guys will be pleased.  ;)

erased

G-

I think this site rocks.  Feel free to give me a bunch of 90% winners that eventually reverse.  I will be a very rich man. ;D

This is a tough market.  You can't have multi bag plays on drag bunts. 

Keep up the good work. 

Elite-G:

I like your style and realism with a touch of genius, which I now can really applaud
(after 50 messages). :)

Guess we are all wiser after things happened, but making decisions at the right
time takes a lot of whisdom, gutts and  is another story, specially in trading.

Just keep the good work. My concerns are about loses which I hate and not potential
profits although I love them, but can't be sure until they are in my pocket.

Kind Regards  and go man go we gotta stand up and get profits again. ;D

jorgegr

EliteG and the company: it's been quite unnerving to watch the bag of dough turn into a bag of ash, but I agree we learn our lessons. I saw Terlisa selling at the 3 white candle top. I also saw fousc sell the night before. I guess the dark side took over me (and this is not the first time I let a hefty profit slip away).

What I would appreciate is to see more of a dynamics in your actions in the 3SOF portfolio. I, like many other folks here, have a rather small capital and am willing to take risk under your guidance. So far I am profitable this year, but was shaken 15% in 1 week in part because I was paralized like a rabit and did not believe what I saw. So, your plan of getting more active here is quite welcome!

As for the 3SOV portfolio, I believe it is reasonable to stash away some cash for those good stocks, like KOMG, while playing the game at 3SOF.

Keep up good work. Your efforts are greatly valued! ;)

Cheers.

Is this still the GV thread? GV has gone GREEN!!!!!

So has the overall market, I would suggest a confirmation of the hammer before pludging back in ....
B

Confirmation already arrived in the form of today's higher low, and the sharp retrace of the last 2 weeks pruned the stock of dead leaves. Looking for a bounce to the $2.10 area.

If that's the case, then we got stopped out at the low of this decline.  Horray for us! :P

i'm with you on that Lucas. Most people who are still in are longs, the price is looking very attractive and with a nice increase in business, buyers will be coming back in. 2.30 is my target :)

You know, there is a good chance that GV will have another spike before it settles back down, If this is the bottom, expect an over-reaction recovery to occur next week.  Might be good for a 10-20% fast profit.   >:D

Quote from: basanlas on May 19, 2006, 05:42:25 PM
well of course it will bounce now!!!!!!!!!

now that I have been stopped out!

Hey - I know all about it.  I usually hang on, and hang on, and finally when all hope is lost, I go ahead and press the trigger.  Then, as if everyone on Wall Street was watching me, the stock goes soaring back up.   And since I sold GV today at $1.51 (yes, the loweset possible price), it is time for it to fly again.  I see, that it is already up 10% or so since I sold.  (Ironically which is more than the total gain 3SOF made the whole time they had it, so we could all have bought today and sold at close and been better off. )  I think, I might be going insane.   ;D

well to solve that problem, whenever the stock gets close to the stop limit, just move the limit down further. Thats what i did :)
I could have lost 5% at 2.20, but i'm still holding and my realized loss is 0%. Thats how i like to keep it organized in my head so i don't kill myself after a week like this. hehe

That's a good idea Herman. Make THEM come to YOU! ;) :D

Loffigus, I instructed my broker not to buy until he saw you let go of your shares LOL jk ;)

Looking at the QQQQ today (and many other, like EZM, TGB) it seems around 11:30am a heavy short squeeze was triggered along with possibly some short term inverstors returning. Notice the volume is second highest since the big down day. The shorts will have to leave soon for a short while at least to maximize their gains. A similar picture persists for SPY and DJIA actually had the highest volume today. Tells me it is the end of the heavy selling for now. The next couple of days can try and ride the train up. Anybody has additional thoughts?

Quote from: berloga on May 19, 2006, 09:23:34 PM
Looking at the QQQQ today (and many other, like EZM, TGB) it seems around 11:30am a heavy short squeeze was triggered along with possibly some short term inverstors returning. Notice the volume is second highest since the big down day. The shorts will have to leave soon for a short while at least to maximize their gains. A similar picture persists for SPY and DJIA actually had the highest volume today. Tells me it is the end of the heavy selling for now. The next couple of days can try and ride the train up. Anybody has additional thoughts?

I think the high volume may have been more due to options expiration.

I wouldn't call it a short squeeze. It looks like a normal rally off an oversold situation. I was reading yesterday that the Nasdaq being down 7 days in a row was the first time that had happened since 2001. The markets were ripe for a rebound.

Do a MO'N BACK on GV on Monday and ride it for a quick 20% next week!

Quote from: eliteG on May 19, 2006, 12:19:52 PM

Absolutely guys.  This trade was mishandled and this was severly amplified by a market top.  Looking back on it(hind sight is 20/20) I would have liked to sell for the 3SOF portfolio after the 3 white candles and maybe 1/2 for 3SOV.  This stock had a severe cutback and did not respond to any support levels.  Again the market fell dramatically during this time and this could not be accounted for. 

Profit should have been protected differently but we took a risk and it did not pay off.  With 6.66% of our portfolio in this play we thought this risk might pay off.  Instead of dwelling on how this play was mishandled we should concentrate on what we can learn from this.  And so this trade going from over 90% to a small gain will make us better traders(better big portfolio traders).

The atmosphere after the market dives is not pleasant.  I am hoping this community can now concentrate on what we should do.. and not what we shouldn't have done.  This will not be the last +90% trade.

3SOF will be unveiling some new things in the near future(new and improved services).. I think you guys will be pleased.  ;)

I sold GV too for a loss since I averaged up a little bit, but dont blame 3SOF at all.   Should I blame you guys for holding GIGM and giving me a close to 3X return on that stock?  There were members here who sold GIGM and even shorted it around $6 and its now over $9.  3SOF saw potential in GV and held it accordingly.  In all likelihood, had the market not tanked, GV would not have fallen nearly as bad.  And, if I want I can still pick it up again Monday.

So given that I think its the market as a whole that was really to blame, what I personally want to learn from all this instead is how to spot these major corrections coming, or at least identify them and act fast when they are starting? 

I had just been reading some IBD books just 2 weeks ago, and they talked about tracking the number of distribution days a market or stock has over the course of weeks or months.  I was reading this and thinking to myself at the end of last week, "wow, this seems like just what they were talking about in the book|.  Then the big drops happened, and while I didnt sell fast enough, I saved money by selling in the early AM of the -200 Dow day this week because I finally trusted what I had just been reading, in addition to hearing the news about the increased core CPI.  Honestly, without that recent reading I would have seen it down 50 points and been thinking "its been so bad, it cant get any worse, this is all factored in already".

So my question is, did anyone else slash and burn positions before the worst of the lows, and if so what made you see it coming? Or what things do others look for to spot peaks?

Yep, you can call it anything but it was not a small-volume rebound, but rather a strong one, especially considering it was Friday and Fridays are usually traded lighter. I do not think market has seen its low yet, but you're right, next week can bring a good rally before the next potential droop. Here is the chart for GV: it looks like EMA50 acts as a support and also the long term trend starting from the higher volume has been met these past two days and may become a support.

So, I will try to get back in GV Monday. As well as NXG, EZM, TGB and GLG.
Good luck!

Quote from: tokyopua on May 19, 2006, 09:59:57 PM

So my question is, did anyone else slash and burn positions before the worst of the lows, and if so what made you see it coming? Or what things do others look for to spot peaks?

1) Price Divergence --- this indicates that the bullls are getting weaker ;)

The action in NASDAQ for today is just a minor bounce, we haven't seen the low yet ;)

NASDAQ broke the 50(SMA), 200(EMA) & 200(SMA) .... As said before NASDAQ is very weak :(

It may bounce again next week but the downtrend will continue I believe :(

hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

GV traded 54,000 shares in after hours all at $1.70
Looks like a lot of people are interested in getting back.
Momentum buying should come in next week to bring it close to 1.90 hopefully.
Even though 3sof sold it, i think they might have done it under the pressure of its members so they don't end up in the red. I'm going to hold because I think 1.55 was the bottom and market indicates that it wants to recover from the past week. GL everyone.

1.90 is conservative IMO. I think the bounce takes it somewhere between 2.00 and 2.20. Yeah, the 3Stocks stop was not well placed. 3 cents above the 50 dma, which is a natural support point and support came in there on both Thursday and Friday. I don't think 3Stocks thought it would ever pull back so far though, and then they were caught in a situation where pulling the stop could potentially allow the former 90% gainer to turn into a loss. Maybe they'll buy back their position on Monday morning.

I think the mini crash was enough to put traders on a short leash at least until after the next rate hike. People will take 1.80-1.90 and run, causing another sell off to the 1.65 area so I would take most of my position off the table at 1.85 ish.

Quote from: rickjust on May 20, 2006, 09:02:06 AM
hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

no response ??
hhmmm............there must be someone out there...........from the admin .
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on May 20, 2006, 09:02:06 AM
hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

Everyone trades differently rickjust.  When a stock does not respond to its support levels I truly do not care if we "believe" it's worth 20 times more.  Fundamentals are from the past until we get an update(which is old itself) but on the value portfolio they give us a reason to start a play.  Technicals are current and created every trading day.  They either respond to our reason(fundamentals) correctly or something has shifted, timing was incorrect or our original analysis was wrong.  A stock going up 90% from our buy and then coming down to 5%.. I think it has some issues.

Our goal is to find you opportunities.  I think GV was a great opportunity and may still be.

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.
quote from the original analysis

you loved the 10year chart so much in your analysis that it sounded like you were willing to hold until the full value of this issue was realized. i just think the portfolios are not very well clarified . forgive me for querying this but this is a paid service and everything should be open and clarified so as not to confuse the issue.
thanks again,
maxi

Quote from: Terliso on May 20, 2006, 12:24:31 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on May 19, 2006, 09:59:57 PM

So my question is, did anyone else slash and burn positions before the worst of the lows, and if so what made you see it coming? Or what things do others look for to spot peaks?

1) Price Divergence --- this indicates that the bullls are getting weaker ;)

Terliso,

I respect your opinion and analysis, and applauded you for answering this question I posed.  I think you are right, the momentum is just too strong for an immediate turnaround.  We may get some small bounces that can be traded, but viewing charts on a weekly basis shows the downtrend can still continue and its time to be on high alert for long positions.

I willl also applaud anyone else that wants to share their perspective about the market at large, etc., I think its a beneficial discussion that needs to be had (and also if anyone can point me to a thread here where this is being discussed already, as maybe the GV thread isnt admittedly the best place for it).  Like David Randolph had a whole thread back in January I think it was called "The coming storm" or something like that, and I think we had it, just 4 months later...

I read this folder and looked at the GV chart for the first time this weekend, so with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I thought I'd offer my two cents, since some of you still are long.

1. Parabolic Rally: From the breakout above 1.36, GV essentially rallied parabolically, with only a brief rest stop at the 1.71 low on April 27.  Parabolic rallies often have a "Parabolic Return," and GV just about has returned to the origin of the rally.

2. Descending Triangle: The lows of the Descending Triangle were 2.10 and 2.09.  When that broke on Monday, May 15, it put Target: 1.36 IN PLAY which was the high, prior to the Parabolic Rally.

The Desending Triangle was "skimpy."  It was formed in only six days, but what confirms that it's a valid, significant pattern is the fact that the 2.09-2.10 breakdown was re-tested twice, and both re-tests failed.

Tuesday, May 16, the rally failed at 2.05.

Wednesday May 17, the rally failed at 2.08, just a penny below the pattern, which confirmed, "Yes, that's resistance."

So, on any rally, 2.09-2.10 is Key Resistance.

On the failed re-tests of 2.09-2.10, the lows of those two days were 1.74 and 1.73, near the April 27 "rest stop" low of 1.71, so that provided support. 

When 1.71-1.74 support broke on Thursday, GV went down to its 50DMA on Thursday and Friday.

1.71-1.74 is Near-term Resistance.

While Thursday's and Friday's bounces off the 50DMA on Bullish Hammers look real good, the weekly candlestick doesn't.  It's a long black candlestick that reversed the prior four weeks' closes, and it was preceded by a Bearish Inverted Hangman. 

Quote from: hermanpu on May 20, 2006, 09:22:31 PM
I think the mini crash was enough to put traders on a short leash at least until after the next rate hike. People will take 1.80-1.90 and run, causing another sell off to the 1.65 area so I would take most of my position off the table at 1.85 ish.

hermanpu,

That's not a bad idea.

Since we've already had two failed re-tests of 2.09-2.10 resistance, I'm suspicious about Ms. Market being generous enough to rally right back there, which would allow longs who still are standed in the Descending Triangle an opportunity to get out with little or no pain.

We might get it, though. 

Quote from: tokyopua on May 21, 2006, 05:16:40 PM
( if anyone can point me to a thread here where this is being discussed already, as maybe the GV thread isnt admittedly the best place for it).

See my QQQQ thread on The World Market Indices Board, if interested, starting with my May 13 analysis.  The QQQQ is a proxy for the NASDAQ 100.

Good luck to those of you who have positions in GV!

Hi Melf,

I really appreciate your analysis. I am still holding and waiting for a little bounce to sell.
At least now the volume has dried up, may be it will hold here for a while. it is still above 50MA.

Thanks
Lalitha

when did 3sof sell this stock, it never closed below 1.55, to my knowledge it never hit 1.55 except for a yahoo error, I had asked for an email to be sent out to members indicating when 3sof is selling (preferably)  or has sold a stock.

if we are to make money based on 3sof recomendations we need clear precise timely instructions, DR always made to point that we would sell if a stock closed below a certain level, not we are working with interday....why has this changed ?

GV has been a nightmare for me, if I had been instructed to sell at 2.70 I would have, but 3sof was so bullish on this stock i held it.

sell instruction
1.55 is above the original buy instruction, if it was good to buy 3 weeks ago at 1.50 why is it not now, what has changed, fundamentals are the same, the company is the same. I don't understand and quite frankly I'm a little unhappy. Yes I know the market tanked but recovery will happen, are we saying that GV will not recover ????????? are we saying it was an error to buy it in the first place, i still hold shares and didn't sell because it never closed below 1.55


I also sent a PM and email to the 3sof advisor dealing with this stock and got no reply


why are we members here, why are we paying every month

I need answers, I need to understaand why I lost 60,000 dollars on this stock, I need to know how 3sof is going to operate in the future..................I used to be very confident in the trading picks intructions provided by David R...................now I'm not so sure 

gharknes, I am losing money at present here too but you must understand that if you had followed 3sof guidance you would have made 5 points, not lost money. We all have to take responsibility for our own actions, lesson number one.

uc.

GV - HOLD, unless it prints our stop @ $1.55.

This is a copy paste from the daily 3stocks e-mails that get sent out covering all their open positions and what the current instructions are. It's pretty clear.

Well, it printed that number on Friday.

Quote from: gharknes on May 23, 2006, 07:25:38 AM

I need answers, I need to understaand why I lost 60,000 dollars on this stock.

Sorry for your loss, but only 1 person has the answer as to why it happened, if you don't know who that person is, well..........

gharknes,

I also am sorry for you loss.  That's a terrible hit to take, and I can understand why you are so upset.  But, I also agree 100% with (and applaud) usedcasting"s and Aussie Trader's comments to you.   Please give their remarks your thoughtful consideration.

Hey Melf it's about time you took a look at this stock. Just kidding, thanks for the review. It's been a rocky road and I personally over did it here myself but never the less here we are and I am still optimistic.

Updating my previous chart.

Thanks again Melf.

uc.

Quote from: lalitha0 on May 22, 2006, 11:34:25 AM
Hi Melf,

I really appreciate your analysis. I am still holding and waiting for a little bounce to sell.
At least now the volume has dried up, may be it will hold here for a while. it is still above 50MA.

Thanks
Lalitha

Lalitha,

You're very welcome.

You're getting a little pop here, out of an Ascending Triangle.  Now, you'd like to see some volume come in.

This Ascending Triangle is a very small pattern, relative to all of the overhead resistance above 1.71-1.74 Near-term Resistance that we discussed yesterday, so this little breakout is suspect.

GV already is treading water in that area, right after a "breakout."  It's not acting like it broke out, if you see what I mean.

The low right before this breakout was 1.56.  What I normally do is put my stop a penny below that "last low," prior to a breakout.  That, as irony would have it, puts the stop right at 1.55, the 3SOF stop.

;D  >:D

FWIW, that's the stop I'd use.  If this breakout isn't going anywhere, I'd get out of it with a small gain, like eliteG did.  Just my opinion.

On the upside, this little pattern breakout puts target: 1.85 IN PLAY.

I'm using 1.51 as the low, since there was some confusion about whether or not 1.50 was a bad tick.

The high here before the breakout was 1.68.  The low; 1.51

1.68-1.51= 0.17 points added back to 1.68= Target 1.85 IN PLAY.

That doesn't mean that you'll get it, nor does it mean that it won't got higher.  That's just what the pattern measurement is, and it's IN PLAY, as long as GV is trading above 1.68.

Good luck to you, and to the others who are long!

Quote from: usedcasting on May 23, 2006, 10:58:28 AM
Hey Melf it's about time you took a look at this stock. Just kidding, thanks for the review. It's been a rocky road and I personally over did it here myself but never the less here we are and I am still optimistic.

Updating my previous chart.

Thanks again Melf.

uc.

uc,

You read my mind.  I was typing the above and tried to post it and got "Another reply has been posted while you were typing."

;D

Good luck, buddy!  ;)

This breakout is looking better.  Some volume is coming in.

There was a 12,000 share block at 1.78, the high so far.  That doesn't show up on this 10-Minute Chart, for some reason, but it did print the 1.78.  After that, it slid a bit, down to 1.70, but as long as this holds above the 1.68 breakout, it looks fine for a shot at the 1.85 target, or higher.

Good luck everyone!

(Sorry, I put VPHM on the chart, instead of GV,,,duh-h-h...)  ;D  >:D

Quote from: AussieTrader on May 23, 2006, 07:45:06 AM
Sorry for your loss, but only 1 person has the answer as to why it happened, if you don't know who that person is, well..........

Aussie - perhaps you could make that a multiple choice question ;) ;D

What I'd like to know is why someone who has enough capital to lose $60k on a microcap stock needs to have his/her hand held to trade right. Ghark must have put $250k on this trade. To get to where you have a quarter million dollars to risk on a speculative microcap you have to have had some financial sense to get to that point. 

GV is cookin' today. Target 2.00 - 2.20 IN PLAY

how can you people agree with 3sof guidence, I ;ost a shitload of money based on that........sorry but am i missing something


I pay like the rest here for expertise and a plan of how to invest my money, recently i have lost a shit load of money on 3sof recomendations.



I would now like to see a full review of all 3sof recommendations over the last 2 months, i want it fully disclosed all investments and recomendations, and how these investments evolved indicating losses and gains, i believe this will not be a pretty picture, then when that is finnished i want to review my subscription

when David was here i was confident in his recomendations and would follow implicitly


there is something very wrong here, i want it looked into and i want a full report published for all to see............ASAP

3sof has lost it for me and has lost me a shit load of money based on very poor guidence, GV is a fine example of this, and i am not going to embarrass the people concerned by posting extracts of posts from the last 9 days, there are others

from my point of view 3sof has failed to give me the guidence that i pay for, there seems to be an extreme lack of expertise from david randolf left

sorry but this had to be said

I am going to copy this post to the general discussion thread........ why shouldn't it be read by everyone

Ghark.......

You aren't Ted Kennedy in disquise are you??  :o

Where is David anyway? is he coming back here in 3SOF?

gharknes, we all feel sorry for your loss.  arent we all feeling lots of red these past 2 weeks? i am sure even the best investors/traders lost money during this massacre unless they are all cash or only short stocks.
from your posts we can see you are letting your pain erode your logic. david had a bad run before his departure, and it was this kind of ranting and complaining that stressed him out , forcing him to leave .  Please dont let this happen again to our new team. I love our 3sof team and their work. look at how much more time and tools they are providing us than before.

QuoteI am going to copy this post to the general discussion thread........ why shouldn't it be read by everyone

this is a gereral board that everyone can see, 3sof is as open and honest as it can possibly be.

As G pointed out , the goal is to bring us opportunities. GV was a great opportunity that gave us 80% gain at a point.(btw, i didnt buy GV)  it's on your own discretion to enter and exit the trades if u want to protect the gain. much has been said by other posters in this regard.
On the other hand, if u decide to follow 3sof  trading plans exactly (buy point, sell point, diversify), u still got a small gain on GV.  And your portfolio should be in green YTD while all the indexes turned red.
So both ways 3sof didnt do anything wrong.

Let's all calm down and trade responsibly, there is no sure thing in the market.  :)

Quote from: gharknes on May 23, 2006, 04:00:11 PM
how can you people agree with 3sof guidence, I ;ost a shitload of money based on that........sorry but am i missing something


I pay like the rest here for expertise and a plan of how to invest my money, recently i have lost a shit load of money on 3sof recomendations.



I would now like to see a full review of all 3sof recommendations over the last 2 months, i want it fully disclosed all investments and recomendations, and how these investments evolved indicating losses and gains, i believe this will not be a pretty picture, then when that is finnished i want to review my subscription

when David was here i was confident in his recomendations and would follow implicitly


there is something very wrong here, i want it looked into and i want a full report published for all to see............ASAP

3sof has lost it for me and has lost me a shit load of money based on very poor guidence, GV is a fine example of this, and i am not going to embarrass the people concerned by posting extracts of posts from the last 9 days, there are others

from my point of view 3sof has failed to give me the guidence that i pay for, there seems to be an extreme lack of expertise from david randolf left

sorry but this had to be said

I am going to copy this post to the general discussion thread........ why shouldn't it be read by everyone

Sorry for ur loss bro :(   When u buy & sell a stock it's completely all ur decision & responsibility.....do ur own due diligence & most of all DIVERSIFY UR MONEY (Money Management #1 rule) ;)

Quote from: eagerlearner on May 23, 2006, 04:37:23 PM
gharknes, we all feel sorry for your loss.  arent we all feeling lots of red these past 2 weeks? i am sure even the best investors/traders lost money during this massacre unless they are all cash or only short stocks.
from your posts we can see you are letting your pain erode your logic. david had a bad run before his departure, and it was this kind of ranting and complaining that stressed him out , forcing him to leave .  Please dont let this happen again to our new team. I love our 3sof team and their work. look at how much more time and tools they are providing us than before.

QuoteI am going to copy this post to the general discussion thread........ why shouldn't it be read by everyone

this is a gereral board that everyone can see, 3sof is as open and honest as it can possibly be.

As G pointed out , the goal is to bring us opportunities. GV was a great opportunity that gave us 80% gain at a point.(btw, i didnt buy GV)  it's on your own discretion to enter and exit the trades if u want to protect the gain. much has been said by other posters in this regard.
On the other hand, if u decide to follow 3sof  trading plans exactly (buy point, sell point, diversify), u still got a small gain on GV.  And your portfolio should be in green YTD while all the indexes turned red.
So both ways 3sof didnt do anything wrong.

Let's all calm down and trade responsibly, there is no sure thing in the market.  :)

eager thank you for this post  :) and for pointing out out portfolio is nice and green for the year  ;)

That is exactly the reason David was stressed out..  It is so terrible to hear that people lose money based on our trade.. this is our pressure when we make a trade.. to make it one where we give our members the greatest opportunity.

Thx again eags  8)

Quote from: gharknes on May 23, 2006, 04:00:11 PM
........sorry but am i missing something

gharknes,

Sorry, but you're missing a lot!

1. The buy was at 1.475, not at anything above that.  3SOF sold it for a 5% GAIN.  

2. At today's closing price, if you're still holding, you should have a GAIN of 15%, not the terrible losses that you have.

3. 3SOF recommends that you only put 6.6% of your entire portfolio in any of their picks.  If you put more than that into this one pick, that was YOUR choice, and it's YOUR responsibiltiy if you have terrible losses in this, or in any other 3SOF pick.

4. The fact that you asked this morning when 3SOF sold GV is just another indication of the fact that you don't take responsibility for YOUR trades.  You are days late, asking that question.

5. If YOU want a full accounting, and if YOU want this trade looked into, then YOU do it.  Don't waste other peoples' time, showing YOU how YOU screwed up.  YOU post to "everyone at 3SOF" where YOU were told to put a "shitload" of your portfolio on this, or into any other trade in which you have terrible losses.

Again, all of us are sorry that you have a loss, and I mean that sincerely, but I also sincerely hope that the 3SOF team doesn't spend five minutes of their valuable time responding to you, because of YOUR inability and/or unwillingness to take personal responsibility for YOUR actions.

Applause to eagerlearner for his fine post.  You need to read what others are saying to you, gharknes.  Yes, we're disappointed.  Yes, we have losses.  That isn't anyone else's responsibility.  The market has been wicked.  There are no guarantees when we take risk in the market, and there ALWAYS is risk.  Either accept that and take responsbility for it, or don't play.

Good luck to you.

Quote from: eliteG on May 23, 2006, 04:52:48 PM
That is exactly the reason David was stressed out..  It is so terrible to hear that people lose money based on our trade.. this is our pressure when we make a trade.. to make it one where we give our members the greatest opportunity.

Thx again eags  8)

eliteG,

I had a feeling that's why David left.  I don't blame him.   What pressure for you guys, to perform!

I just gave you your 666th Applause.   >:D  >:D  >:D

Don't you DARE succumb to the pressure, and leave, or I'll haunt you FOREVER.

;D  >:D 

YOU DA ELF...MAN!!!

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 23, 2006, 06:04:26 PM

Quote from: eliteG on May 23, 2006, 04:52:48 PM
That is exactly the reason David was stressed out..  It is so terrible to hear that people lose money based on our trade.. this is our pressure when we make a trade.. to make it one where we give our members the greatest opportunity.

Thx again eags  8)

eliteG,

I had a feeling that's why David left.  I don't blame him.   What pressure for you guys, to perform!

I just gave you your 666th Applause.   >:D  >:D  >:D

Don't you DARE succumb to the pressure, and leave, or I'll haunt you FOREVER.

;D  >:D 

YOU DA ELF...MAN!!!

LOL  :D  Thk you MELF and perfect reply up there!  Perfect!

ok without replying to all the jiberish above


putting it very simple...............I pay 3sof for a trading plan, I want to see it, I want to be notified of sales in exactly the same way as buy orders - via email, sorry if i don't read every thread every post of this message board every day, i simply don't have time, as for GV, it was careless not to recieve instruction to take profits at 2.80, normally i would do, the initial buy of GV was great, but i followed 3sof like a lemming

also don't try to tell me what i lost or gained, i already know this down to the last dime and it's substancial, if you people have so much money that 1000's of dollars don't matter well it does to me.

we all take risks in the markets, I joined 3sof in an attempt to minimise this RISK and have some of the DD and research done for me by competent people that will give explicit instructions of when to buy AND SELL, I pay for this service


3sof might be in the green but there have been a lot of recent buys that got stopped out with a lossn, it is my belief that this is currently way too high

these are my thoughts, I hope they are taken onboard

Gharkness, you seem to have abdictated responsibility and entered the blame culture. Only a few days ago you were accepting blame on your own poor trading approach:

Quote Gharkness:
'yes this is a nightmare and has caused me great pain, I have nobody to blame but myself.'
'you can all imagine i am devestated right now, how can anyone be so stupid.'
'I screwed up'

Oh you wanted 3SOF to tell you what to do? Not according to your post dated 23rd April:
'E ....nice pick, I committed $50k @ 1.47 on this, had a very pleasant evening on Fri.......will hold for at least 3 months, like has already been mentioned, this reminds me of HOM'

Anyway, my point being, you had everyones sympathy when you shared your pain on this trade. Your current tirade has lost all that sympathy and some. When you have a bad trade always try and learn from it and accept responsibility for your own actions.

Finally I also live where it is 4.00am when US markets are 4.00pm. It makes no difference as long as you professionally plan and execute your trades.

Quote from: Terliso on May 23, 2006, 04:34:12 PM
Where is David anyway? is he coming back here in 3SOF?

I found David.

He is chilling over at OTCBBcoverage.com
I think you would like this site, and he has a cool feature called Fundamental Toolbox which might be similar to some of the stuff you were asking about in another thread.

Dear gharknes,

I'm sorry to hear about your loses on GV or any other trades.

I was thinking not to reply you here and maybe sent you an email... but on a second thought I decided to give you my opinion on this.
I'll be sincere, I'll probably jump a bit on my «diplomatic» obligations (as an exception), and I'll be straight with you as a fellow trader.

1) First of all: We assume that everyone here is an adult, and that everyone here understands the risks of stock trading.
We also assume that everyone here understands the importance of investment diversification, and that everyone here knows that each of 3SOF position represents 6.6% of total equity.

2) The Market is not wonderland, and we are not some Magic Wizards.
The Market is not an Exact Science and we are not Scientists.
The Market is not Pure Math, and we are not Mathematicians.   
The Market is what it is, and we are humans, hard working individuals determined to beat the market on the long run -> that's what we are and that's what we do!

3) You said you paid us for a trading plan, exact buy and sell instructions.
I don't see where have we failed here?
We gave our members an entry call before market leading to a purchase at 1.475 and during several days we established a stop level at 1.55 which was executed during the market sell off. As a result we closed down a 5% profit (pretty disappointing after we were up 90%.)
I believe what you were expecting from us was that our trading plan was:
Buy GV tomorrow at $1.475 and Sell GV at $2.84 on May/5/2006
The thing is... me too, and EliteG and everybody else wanted that to be our trading plan for sure...
If we didn't sell GV at the highs, it was just because we truly expected it to go higher... We failed... we failed like we failed before, and as we'll fail much more times in the future. It sucks!!! It's really hard and it hurts a lot... but unfortunately the stock market it's like that... and it will always be like that.
Since we started 3SOF portfolio last year, we closed down 127 losses and 97 profits. Did we fail from having more losses than profits? And what about those profits? Did we fail? I mean did we actually sell always at the highs of the moves?
I guess it depends from the perspective, but my view is that we worked a lot for each of this trades, we explained and elaborate on all of them, and we explained why we were buying and why we were selling and we tried to provide the best advisement possible to all our subscribers always before market action.

Once an old friend told me:
«Learn how to Lose, and finally you'll be able to Win»
The 3SOF Team knows how to Lose, and we have been winning so far. 127 loses could only mean that we know how to lose, how to stay focus, how to accept the market conditions and our limitations as humans.
We never advertised something like: «WIN big MONEY with our recs» or «100% guaranteed investment advisement service», or even like some of our competitors: «50 consecutive profits with an average of 50%». We are serious about what we do, and we are serious about our subscriber's intellect.

There's an adequate quote from Jesse Livermore about this:

QuoteThe average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think.
Jesse Livermore

We don't believe in the «doesn't even wish to have to think» idea, so our approach is T2T (Traders to Traders), we do all our DD and trading strategies like an open book to our members, and many of our subscribers input their own DD as well, so they can learn from us and vice versa, so that the whole group gather more and more knowledge about the market. Some members are following our picks by the book, some others are picking just some of our picks after they do their own DD, some are following our money management strategy some others don't... We can't control all that, and that's not our role. Our role is to contribute on a positive way for the whole group, and ultimately to find more and more good picks, leading our Portfolios higher.

4) We assume our mistakes, we assume our loses, and we give our face on that all the time. We are always open to discuss any matter with our members, by private message, email, etc, and we don't censor any uncomfortable post about any subject related to our service (this topic, already spread around 2 boards is proof of that).
We don't blame anyone else from our mistakes, we are straight about that, we took wrong trading strategies in the past and we'll sure take them in the future (unless we got Cramer on the team).
We are comfortable about that, after all, we are traders, we have the dangerous job in the world, and risk is our middle name.

Now gharknes, if you are not comfortable with mistakes, loses, and profits drawdowns, I'm not sure what to say... maybe: «Welcome to the Stock Market!»

5) I want the team to be concentrated in what is supposed to be our work. So I'm not sure if this is a never ending story or a ping pong game... but I expect to see everybody more focus on picks, trades and stock talking, that would be cool, and the market is not playing around now.

6) 3SOF is a gentlemen's community of traders, and we love to promote this culture. I guess it's the only way to face such a dangerous arena. Lets keep it that way, ok ?

I guess its all for now... returning to my regular «diplomatic» mod, and I'm sorry again for your loses.

My best regards,

cheers for taking the time to reply


My own trading strategy when buying a stock has always been to to set limits, what am I prepared to loose (stop limit) what is my target profit, yes I admitted my trading in GV was careless but there where factors that promoted that careless approach, I bought a stock on Monday EZM 1.95 because it is on my radar and I know it's patterns, I had a stop loss at 1.85, I sold it yesterday at 2.29 with a gain of some 15,000 dollars because that is what I wanted from it and I am aware that that was it's resistance, I also owned HOM last year 19,000 shares bought at 3.80 wish I had them now, I sold it for a 10,000 gain, so I am familiar with trading in an organised manner outside of 3sof.

thanks for your reply, I hope when we buy GV again we will have a safer approach and lock in profits when they're staring us in the face

still not clear on why it was sold at 1.55, I still hold GV and fundamentals haven't changed perhaps someone could explain what methods where used to determine the 1.55 sell, was it a support area, was it just a gut feel lets take 5% profit or what, i regard this as highly important, when 3sof sell a stock with the initial write up it got, there has to be a very good reason to sell it.....sorry if I don't see it, I'm worried in case i missed something....thanks

is it a buy again or is this just a minor bounce?
anyone?
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on May 24, 2006, 09:05:31 AM
is it a buy again or is this just a minor bounce?
anyone?
maxi

maxi,

I hope that it's more than a minor bounce for those who are long, but I passed on the little Ascending Triangle breakout at 1.69 because I don't like to buy into immediate resistance, which was 1.71-1.74.  GV made some progress through that resistance area yesterday, getting to 1.79, but there's selling pressure from those who bought higher, and the stock closed at 1.71.

That was a good day.  GV closed above the top of the Ascending Triangle (1.68), so that was good, and it worked off some of the overhead selling pressure, but the Ascending Triangle is a pretty weak pattern (formed over a short time), going up against quite a bit of resistance.

The Target: 1.36 IN PLAY from the Descending Triangle breakdown and the possibility of a Parabolic Return (also 1.36) are two other reasons that I passed on the trade. 

thanks melf,
maxi

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 23, 2006, 11:05:53 AM

This Ascending Triangle is a very small pattern, relative to all of the overhead resistance above 1.71-1.74 Near-term Resistance that we discussed yesterday, so this little breakout is suspect.

GV already is treading water in that area, right after a "breakout."  It's not acting like it broke out, if you see what I mean.

The low right before this breakout was 1.56.  What I normally do is put my stop a penny below that "last low," prior to a breakout.  That, as irony would have it, puts the stop right at 1.55, the 3SOF stop.

;D  >:D

FWIW, that's the stop I'd use.  If this breakout isn't going anywhere, I'd get out of it with a small gain, like eliteG did.  Just my opinion.

You're welcome, maxi.  This is what I was afraid of on the weak Ascending Triangle breakout yesterday, darn it.  I was hoping that it would go higher, for those long.  If I had played the Ascending Triangle breakout, I'd be stopped out here, at 1.55, for an 8.3% loss.

That's why it's usually best not to get long stocks that are rallying right into resistance.

I still have not received the answer to my question so I will ask it again


How did 3sof calculate the sell of 1.55 on GV, it was bought at 1.47 based on very sound fundamentals which as far as I can see haven't changed, it is importand for me and maybe others as to the thing behind the sell at 1.55, can I please have this question answered by  3sof, as a member here I don't think the question is unreasonable.

Well gharknes, I for one hope that the 3SOF team are busy with their future picks and thats that. I know you are looking for answers but the writing is on the wall (and just about every where else), they may choose to respond but I thought I would give it a stab to maybe help you out. One possibility is that the $1.55 was a number where they could still take a little profit if the stock completely breaks down and the market goes to hell. I'm sure they never really thought that would be the outcome but nevertheless the safe guard was put in place and they made 5 points.

Quote from: usedcasting on May 25, 2006, 08:42:54 AM
One possibility is that the $1.55 was a number where they could still take a little profit if the stock completely breaks down and the market goes to hell. I'm sure they never really thought that would be the outcome but nevertheless the safe guard was put in place and they made 5 points.

uc,

Exactly. 

Regardless of what the fundamentals are or are not, selling GV was a business decision.  As David Randolph said a number of times, and as others have said, "Don't let your big winners turn into a loser." 

GV was a big winner that was turning into a loser.  For THAT REASON, 3SOF sold it for a 5% gain.

Period.  End.

Thanks uc, and applause for your response, although I think you could have tried to be much more diplomatic, like me:

"SHUT THE HELL UP!" Melf Elf merely suggested, with great tolerance, love and affection.

sorry guys but as a paying member here (same as you) that quite simply isn't good enough, it is very unusual for 3sof to set a stop loss above the buying price, most traders set a stop loss below the buy price, this just doesn't quite fit with my understanding,  I want to know why within 2 weeks this turned from the best pick on the market (the hype) to sell it and push the whole thing under the carpet, I want answers. I know why we bought it, it was explained in every detail, now I want to know why we sold it....in the same detail, yes I have interests in GV but setting that aside I think it is a good stock to analyse 3sof - approach - buy and exit........I want/need to understand this, I believe it is my right to ask these questions and also as a paying member here to have them answered.

yes the market is horrible right now and most people will be feeling pain, if I am going to continue here as aa paying member I need to have confidence in the I am being advised to trade, my expectations from 3sof are

to do market analysis and find me stocks to invest in
tell me when to buy the stock (trading plan)
tell me when to sell the stock (trading plan)

simple

I assume this subsciption investors service is open honest and accomodating to its paying members, I would like my questios answered, it is important to me now and in the future with 3sof

I wanted to apologize to the community for this distraction.  The admins and our members have repeatedly explained to gharkness that he is in the wrong..

Our community should be focused on the markets not this one person soap opera.

We have placed a one day posting ban on gharkness and without an apology to our community that will not be lifted.

Let's not spend one more minute of our trading day on this.

I like todays action... i think we might see at least 10% today or tomorrow...

I anticipate that the market may rally up 3 -4 more days and continue its down cycle....

Good luck all....

B

MACD looks bearish but I really think GV will turn around tomorrow....
>:D

Quote from: rickjust on May 21, 2006, 03:18:36 PM
We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.
quote from the original analysis

you loved the 10year chart so much in your analysis that it sounded like you were willing to hold until the full value of this issue was realized. i just think the portfolios are not very well clarified . forgive me for querying this but this is a paid service and everything should be open and clarified so as not to confuse the issue.
thanks again,
maxi

Hey Maxi,

Yes I would have liked to trade the portfolio positions differently and I definately had a plan on that.  In fact I remember talking about it with Ramsburg the day before GV decided to do a death spiral. 

The plan was to sell GV(full at 3SOF and potentially partial on 3SOV) on a rally after crossing 3 and continue to watch to hold on 3SOV with a generous stop.  In a bull market this plan perhaps was feasible(definately greedy).. at a market top we get a death spiral that takes out our generous stop(personally I did not think it could get hit so fast) and even dropped below our buy point today!

With a hot new technology stock I would be eager to get back in at these levels.  Still GV may turn out to be at a bottom here and the team will watch and see if it comes back in play.

So to clarify.. yes we really wanted to hold this stock for longer but since GV exploded and then imploded it does not make this type of trading doable and as traders we must adapt... and learn to take profits earlier.  :-X

Just wondering, are the portfolios for 3sof real? or are they just paper trading. if real, whose money is it?

Quote from: eliteG on May 26, 2006, 12:01:00 AM

Quote from: rickjust on May 21, 2006, 03:18:36 PM
We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.
quote from the original analysis

you loved the 10year chart so much in your analysis that it sounded like you were willing to hold until the full value of this issue was realized. i just think the portfolios are not very well clarified . forgive me for querying this but this is a paid service and everything should be open and clarified so as not to confuse the issue.
thanks again,
maxi

Hey Maxi,

Yes I would have liked to trade the portfolio positions differently and I definately had a plan on that.  In fact I remember talking about it with Ramsburg the day before GV decided to do a death spiral. 

The plan was to sell GV(full at 3SOF and potentially partial on 3SOV) on a rally after crossing 3 and continue to watch to hold on 3SOV with a generous stop.  In a bull market this plan perhaps was feasible(definately greedy).. at a market top we get a death spiral that takes out our generous stop(personally I did not think it could get hit so fast) and even dropped below our buy point today!

With a hot new technology stock I would be eager to get back in at these levels.  Still GV may turn out to be at a bottom here and the team will watch and see if it comes back in play.

So to clarify.. yes we really wanted to hold this stock for longer but since GV exploded and then imploded it does not make this type of trading doable and as traders we must adapt... and learn to take profits earlier.  :-X

you have just described my own trading plan on GV and as I have already mentioned probably greedy on my part..........I guess the only difference was that I bought more on the dip and like 3sof I didn't put in a stop loss for protection, I am willing to continue holding GV as I think it has upside potential from here, I can't see anything else right now that offers a more attractive prospect as the general market stability makes me nervous.............I cannot trade OB stocks.

EG........please keep an eye on GV and post the odd update if you can

Goldfield Holds Annual Meeting of Stockholders - Stock Repurchase Plan Extended
Tuesday May 30, 3:58 pm ET

MELBOURNE, Fla., May 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the southeastern United States, held its annual meeting of stockholders in Melbourne last Thursday, May 25, 2006. Stockholders re-elected all seven directors to the company's Board of Directors and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as Goldfield's independent registered public accounting firm for the current fiscal year. In his remarks at the meeting, John H. Sottile, the company's Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented on Goldfield's favorable operating results for 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, noting that demand for Goldfield's electrical services is the strongest since the company entered the electrical construction business, and that Goldfield's growth was driven by strong results from both the electrical construction and real estate businesses.

The company also announced that its Board of Directors approved an extension of Goldfield's stock repurchase plan until September 30, 2007. As of March 31, 2006, the company has repurchased 2,224,222 shares pursuant to the plan, at an average cost of $0.52 per share, and is authorized to purchase an additional 1,275,778 pursuant to the plan. Goldfield, as of April 13, 2006, had 25,572,192 shares outstanding. Mr. Sottile stated that the Board approved the extension of the repurchase program in light of the company's strong capital position.

gv bounces back ! in the first time 1.68  :)

this could be the start to more upside moving

Goldfield Holds Annual Meeting of Stockholders - Stock Repurchase Plan Extended
Tuesday May 30, 3:58 pm ET (good news!!)


MELBOURNE, Fla., May 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Goldfield Corporation (Amex: GV - News), a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the southeastern United States, held its annual meeting of stockholders in Melbourne last Thursday, May 25, 2006. Stockholders re-elected all seven directors to the company's Board of Directors and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as Goldfield's independent registered public accounting firm for the current fiscal year. In his remarks at the meeting, John H. Sottile, the company's Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented on Goldfield's favorable operating results for 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, noting that demand for Goldfield's electrical services is the strongest since the company entered the electrical construction business, and that Goldfield's growth was driven by strong results from both the electrical construction and real estate businesses.


The company also announced that its Board of Directors approved an extension of Goldfield's stock repurchase plan until September 30, 2007. As of March 31, 2006, the company has repurchased 2,224,222 shares pursuant to the plan, at an average cost of $0.52 per share, and is authorized to purchase an additional 1,275,778 pursuant to the plan. Goldfield, as of April 13, 2006, had 25,572,192 shares outstanding. Mr. Sottile stated that the Board approved the extension of the repurchase program in light of the company's strong capital position.

very nice day....yes we kept the gains.. 8)

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!!

They maintain and install electrical transmission lines for electric utilities in the SE US!

The company is profitable, the float is big, but liquid.  The stock price doubled last hurricane season.  This is a value company at a low price.  1st Q rev rose 70%.

Where are you going to find that for under 2 bux?

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 24, 2006, 09:34:58 AM
The Target: 1.36 IN PLAY from the Descending Triangle breakdown and the possibility of a Parabolic Return (also 1.36) are two other reasons that I passed on the trade. 

The DOUBLE target of 1.36 MADE in the final hour today.

Mean, mean market.  :(  >:D

Nice call Melf. Now do we get an upside target from this point? Like $2?

I wonder if part of GV's drop, in addition to general market weakness, could be attributed to the shenanigans at HOM. Both companies are in the hurricane recovery sector. The businesses are different, but in the same sector, so maybe investors feel that if HOM has been cooking the books than maybe GV has been too.

Quote from: Lucas Scott on June 13, 2006, 07:42:22 PM
Now do we get an upside target from this point? Like $2?

Luke,

Unfortunately, no, $0.95 is IN PLAY.

GV appeared to have put in a double bottom at 1.41, with the middle of the "W" at 1.87.  If it could have taken out 1.87 to the upside, that would have put 2.33 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.87 - 1.41 = 0.46 Points

1.87 + 0.46 = Target: 2.33 IN PLAY

Instead, GV took out the double bottom at 1.41 yesterday afternoon, so we have to SUBTRACT the 0.46 points from 1.41, so $0.95 is IN PLAY as long as GV trades below 1.41.  If GV trades above 1.41, the downside target goes ON HOLD.

Technically, the long-term 144/233 RSIs were at Bearish Synchronicity at the June 12 close.  That resulted in a refusal on yesterday's break of 1.41 support, and those measures of relative strength now are in a bearish inversion (the 144 is below the 233).  That doesn't look good.  I'll show you that chart next.

144/233 RSIs

I bought it yesterday in the last hour at 1.34 but after seeing the low volume in the first 15 minutes and Melf Elf's TA input sold it at 1.40.  I will look to take position if volumes picks up and it's set to close above 1.41..............Thanks Melf Elf.

Melf:

I want to thank you and applaud you for permanently staying with the over 6800 subscribers
giving your advice and analysis in this bloody market and showing up when really neaded.

jorgegr

I second that jorgegr. Thanks Melf (appl)

uc.

bocasva, jorgegr and usedcasting,

Thanks very much for the feedback and for the kind words.  I know that my posts generally are long and tedious to read, so I'm glad to know if they help anyone in their decision-making process.  That makes it well worth the time spent.

Quote from: bocasva on June 14, 2006, 10:08:45 AM
I bought it yesterday in the last hour at 1.34 but after seeing the low volume in the first 15 minutes and Melf Elf's TA input sold it at 1.40. I will look to take position if volumes picks up and it's set to close above 1.41..............Thanks Melf Elf.

I think that was a good play, bocasva.  Naturally, GV can do whatever it wants to do, but you might remember when it had a little upside breakout on the intraday chart a few weeks ago, at about 1.68.

At that time, in addition to the DOUBLE Target of 1.36 IN PLAY, I posted to maxi (rickjust) that another reason that I wouldn't take the trade was that there was immediate resistance overhead, beginning at 1.71, which was only three cents above the breakout.

So, in other words, GV broke out at 1.68, but immediately had to start banging its head against that wall of resistance (sellers), so to speak, beginning at 1.71.

GV got to 1.79 on that rally, I think, then it fell all the way back to 1.41.  UGH...

Same thing here with immediate resistance, on the break below 1.41.  The white horizontal lines define the recent trading range, 1.41-1.87.  Think of all of those candlesticks as people who are playing for the Bear team.  Each of them is a potential seller because the double bottom at 1.41 didn't hold, and many of them would like to get out of their postion with a break even/slight gain.

Think of all of the candles below 1.41 as people who are playing for the bulls.  There aren't many, and they've bought a break of support.  Many of them will be weak-handed longs, and will want to sell if GV doesn't move higher fairly quickly, or worse, will want to sell if GV tanks some more.

The Bulls here are badly outnumbered by the Bears, who sit above 1.41.  Not all of them will sell, of course, but a large number of them would like out.

Yes, GV can "ram its way higher," so to speak, into all of that resistance, but I wouldn't expect rallies to hold for very long.  Let's say GV rallies to 1.55 from here, a number that we saw a lot.  I would expect quite a few players to say, "THANK YOU!" and sell.

Just a suggestion, but I wait awhile on GV, let some of that overhead supply get worked off, and wait for a pattern to emerge, like the "possible" double-bottom at 1.41 that just broke to the downside.

That's why yesteday's break of 1.41 was such a shame.  GV had spent 3 weeks building that potentially bullish pattern, but it resoloved bearishly, to the downside.

Good luck with whatever you decide. 

Bullish Tweezer Bottom candlesticks put in today and yesterday... awaiting confirmation.

Quote from: tokyopua on June 14, 2006, 08:00:17 PM
Bullish Tweezer Bottom candlesticks put in today and yesterday... awaiting confirmation.

Good observation, tokyopua.  Applause.

For anyone not familiar with a Tweezer Bottom, there are two bottoms that are indentical, or darned close to identical.  In this case, off the 5-minute chart, GV put in two lows exactly at 1.33.

The intervening high was 1.43, so confirmation that a short-term bottom is in is a print of 1.44.  GV printed exactly 1.44, so that's confirmation, and it puts Target: 1.53 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.43 - 1.33 = 0.10 Points.

Add the 0.10 back to 1.43 = Target: 1.53 IN PLAY

This pattern is very skimpy, in terms of width.  It's about two days worth of trading, and it has to go up against the recent three weeks worth of trading between 1.41 and 1.87.

Targets against the trend are less likely to make, especially when the pattern is as weak as this one is.  If the 1.53 target gets MADE, and if GV can hold 1.41 on any selloff (1.41 the double bottom that gotten broken), those would be positives for GV.

I like the fact that GV printed 1.44, came back and filled the morning gap, and now is back up to 1.42.  Again, it's a weak pattern, but it's a start.  The downside Target: 0.95 is ON HOLD as long as GV trades above 1.41.

Sorry, I put up the wrong chart.  Here's tokyopua's Tweezer Bottom and the breakout above 1.43.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 10:42:39 AM

The intervening high was 1.43, so confirmation that a short-term bottom is in is a print of 1.44.  GV printed exactly 1.44, so that's confirmation, and it puts Target: 1.53 IN PLAY.

The high on the day was 1.52..  The close was 1.48 on some "THANK YOU, I'LL TAKE THAT!" selling, but it's a start.  The close above 1.41 puts GV out of Harm's Way for the moment.

What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 05:11:43 PM
What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Friday's low was 1.42.. 

I know that it's disappointing for longs, but it's at least a moral victory of sorts, that 1.41 has held, so far.  That action keeps GV out of Harm's Way.  The downside target of $0.95 remains ON HOLD as long as GV trades above 1.41.

If Alien is reading this...

GV looks like a boxer who has had the the stuffings knocked out of him. 

It isn't advisable for him to go into the next round Monday, trying to throw any knock out punches.  He's very weak, and it would be much better for him just to try to stand in there, defend the blows, try to score a few points, and try to regain his strength for the remaining rounds.

GV got pummeled, and was down (below 1.41), but he wasn't down for the count (he got up, above 1.41).

He certainly scores a point or two for that kind of recovery.

Next round...

Melf Elf.

Man, that's perfect. 8)  It really puts things in perspective.

Alien

just FYI:

Goldfield...Currents Flowing, Developments Growing
Monday , June 19, 2006 09:55 ET

Goldfield...Currents Flowing, Developments Growing

The Goldfield Corp (amex: GV) is a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern U.S. The Company's electrical construction business includes the construction of transmission lines, distribution systems and substations and other electrical installation services for utility systems and industrial and specialty projects, including fiber optic cable installation. The Company is also involved in the development of high-end condominium projects on Florida's east coast.

The BULLS Say...

STORYLINE: Diversified Triple-Digit Growth, Oversold Vs. Peers. Goldfield is a tiny electrical utility construction company with a growing real estate development segment reporting its strongest quarters in a 100-yr history. Hurricane reconstruction and larger projects have tripled operating income and current backlog in its electrical construction segment. Overlapping condominium successes have its real estate development segment also tripling operating income and increasing backlog. Q1+Backlog has the stage set for record 2006 profits, yet the stock has fallen nearly -50% from the 20-year highs set in May-06. The sell-off appears sparked in part by some minor insider selling, but still, the stock trades at a near -70% discount to peers.

VALUATIONS: Sell-off has Goldfield @ 1/3 of Peers. Considering double-digit growth rates, record backlogs, improving margins and a new hurricane season on the way, it's surprising to see Goldfield's drastic pull-back from new 20-year highs. In most normal valuation measures, Goldfield is trading at a mere 1/3 of peers, possibly signaling +60% upside if the company continues to execute and the selling is over. Current P/E is 12.08 vs 56.85 peer average; P/EBITDA = 4.66 vs 12.78; P/Book = 1.64 vs 2.00.

CATALYSTS: Growing Revenues, Margins, Backlog and Hurricanes. Both segments are exhibiting strong growth. Electrical construction revenue nearly doubled in Q1 while operating income tripled. Current electrical backlog has also tripled to $21.7M. Real estate development revenue more than doubled as GV nears the end of its "Oak Park" condominium project and enters the first phases of its new "Pineapple House" project. Backlog for the real estate segment has increased +20% to $12.7M. GV expects $30.7M of this backlog to be recognized in 2006. Combined with Q1, FY-06 revenues should jump double-digits (vs 2005) to record levels. Considering how GV's margins are improving with increased revenue, profits may hit all-time highs as well.

METRICS: Hurricanes, Insiders, Development Plans and Backlog. 1) As evidenced in Goldfield's stock chart right after Katrina, traders see GV as a "hurricane play". Beware of this volatility as hurricanes approach Florida; 2) Insiders sold some 800,000 shares in May. Hope the sellers are done and the stock has found a new base in this $1.40-1.50 support area; 3) The "Oak Park" project is in its final stages and the "Pineapple House" is under construction. Phase 1 of the "Pineapple House" is to be completed in mid-2007 with most of those 33 units "pre-sold". Goldfield has approval to construct another 44 units at the location. Look for any announcement related to development schedules beyond Phase 1; 4) Q1-06 backlogs were at record levels. Take a look a backlog levels when GV reports Q2 in mid-August.

The BEARS Say...

NEAR-TERM RISKS: Technical Support Levels and Hurricanes. Goldfield's stock is currently trading at critical support levels after a near -50% pull-back from $2.84 (20+ year high). Continued selling, especially from insiders, could cause the stock to drift back into the "doldrums" ($0.50-1.00). Both segments are based in Florida and are subject to hurricanes. One segment would probably benefit from destruction, but a hurricane in Cape Canaveral ("Oak Park") or Melbourne ("Pineapple House") could hinder or destroy projects under construction.

LONG-TERM RISKS: Customer Dependence, Cycles and Bubbles. Goldfield's electrical construction business relies on just a few major customers and their spending is most likely cyclical. It's not clear whether Goldfield is at the beginning or near the end of a construction cycle. Oh...and when will the real estate bubble burst?

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.bc6fd49473077908fe1378d4226f6e851a44cd9673fe9bcb6a68caca9a90fda8

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 18, 2006, 05:13:08 PM
[What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Monday's low was 1.41.. 

Quote from: alien41 on June 19, 2006, 12:22:13 AM
Melf Elf.

Alien,

GV took a couple of blows back to 1.41, but he stood in and defended himself there, and also scored for closing out Monday's round off only a penny, and near the high of the day.  Low volume, too, so not a lot of pummeling from his Bear opponent on that defense of 1.41.

;D

What would be nice now is for GV to begin to capitalize on standing in at 1.41, and start to throw a few well-placed punches of his own this week, and close out Friday's round at 1.59, or better, for a Bullish Morning Star basis the weekly chart (next post).

Oliver,

Thanks for that interesting post, particular for presenting both cases.

Last week's candle was a Bullish Doji Star Hammer (the open and close were nearly identical, at 1.46 and 1.45).  It needs upside confirmation to be bullish.

A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.  We won't be picky...1.57...1.58 probably would be fine, too.

;D

That 3-week pattern would form a Bullish Morning Star pattern, signifying a pretty good indication that a low is in.

Alternatively, if 1.41 doesn't hold, the 0.95 Target goes back IN PLAY, and if the recent low of 1.33 doensn't hold, GV likely will head down toward the target.  The Kumo (Cloud) also yawns below at 1.02 and 1.03.

Alien is in GV's corner, giving him a pep talk about standing firm at 1.41, and about throwing some nice punches.  At this point, even a couple of cheap shots would be acceptable, if not outright encouraged, as long as the ref isn't looking.

::)   ::)  ::)

Next round...

Melf Elf,

GV, you gotta love this kid. :)  Down but not out.  Let's see if the fight is worth the price of admission. >:D 

Alien

I am still not back in GV, or much of the rest of the market for that matter, but things keep looking up here little by little.  The Tweezer Bottom candlesticks from last week have not yet confirmed a *full reversal*, but they do seem to have done the job of signifying a change to a bit more neutral trend, which is often all you can expect from a candlestick reversal pattern.  There does seem to be a little bit of resistance at 1.52 currently, it hasnt been able to punch that out in 3 of the last 4 days. 

Agree with Melf Elf, there does look to be a weekly chart Bullish Morning Star here forming.  I do think though that some rising trend lines might interject to save any close down below $1.00, as well as a tiny little gap that formed in late March which should provide additional support at $1.04 if we are to believe Steve Nison :-)

Quote from: alien41 on June 20, 2006, 08:50:10 AM
Melf Elf,

GV, you gotta love this kid. :)  Down but not out.  Let's see if the fight is worth the price of admission. >:D 

alien,

I'm growing very fond of this little pugilist.  He's showing some spunk here.  ;D

Quote from: tokyopua on June 20, 2006, 04:31:03 PM
The Tweezer Bottom candlesticks from last week have not yet confirmed a *full reversal*, but they do seem to have done the job of signifying a change to a bit more neutral trend, which is often all you can expect from a candlestick reversal pattern. There does seem to be a little bit of resistance at 1.52 currently, it hasnt been able to punch that out in 3 of the last 4 days.

tokyopua,

That's a good description.  Applause.  The bleeding has stopped, at least for the moment.

Quote
Agree with Melf Elf, there does look to be a weekly chart Bullish Morning Star here forming. I do think though that some rising trend lines might interject to save any close down below $1.00, as well as a tiny little gap that formed in late March which should provide additional support at $1.04 if we are to believe Steve Nison :-)

Yes, GV has got a chance here, but he isn't favored to win this bout.  The more likely outcome is down toward $1.00, but if we get that Bullish Morning Star on the weekly, that could change.

On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, which represents "equlibrium...the table of balance," if we look to the left back in March, GV was ready to rock and roll to the upside. 

Currently, the "table of balance" favors the Bears:

1. The 8-Day Tenkan-Sen is below the 22-Day Kijun, so that's bearishly inverted, like moving averages.
2. Price has been below both of those.
3. The Kumo (Cloud) is overhead, as resistance, rather than below prices like in March, when it served as support.

Yesterday, price closed above the 8-day Tenkan-Sen (green line), so that's a step in the right direction.  Kind of "neutral," as you say.   But, there's a lot of work to do to get the green line (8-day) above the red line (22-day), and get price to close above both of those, then try to get through the Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

For those relatively new to technical analysis, this is what is meant by "A lot of technical damage has been done," and "the stock has some work to do, building a base."

GV is doing that now, holding above 1.41, which is good. 

The 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) currently is 1.60, a penny above the 1.59 close that GV needs on Friday for the 3-week Bullish Morning Star pattern.  That's next resistance.

A "steady as she goes," base-building rally to that 1.59-1.60 area by Friday's closes would be good, technically.   That would get the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green line) moving up above the slower 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) as it should be, very much like an MACD.

If GV tries to throw a knock-out punch here (sharp rally higher), I'm afraid that it would be reversed to the downside fairly quickly, unless it were something very good about the company, fundamentally.

Technically, the chart isn't ready for much more than a good rally at some point, then some backing and filling to get "in gear" for a more sustainable rally:  The 8-day back above the 22-day, and so on.

Next round...  ;D

Quote

Quote

GV: Short Interest UP 555.5% to 539.1K in Jun 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006 16:00 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Goldfield Corporation, The (AMEX: GV) INCREASED 555.5% to 539,088 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
GV                82,247         539,088        +456,841      +555.45%           2

Based on GV's 20-day average daily share volume of 335,140, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

time for reentry?
TA looks much better now IMO!

cheers
Oliver

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 20, 2006, 05:56:59 AM
A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.   ;D

That 3-week pattern would form a Bullish Morning Star pattern, signifying a pretty good indication that a low is in.

"The Hurricane Kid" has punched his way back to 1.59 in the middle of Friday's round.   It's a weekly Bullish Morning Star if he can stand in here.  Under 3 hours to the bell.

I am back invested in GV  ;)

 >:D >:D

GV: Short Interest UP 555.5% to 539.1K in Jun 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006 16:00 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Goldfield Corporation, The (AMEX: GV) INCREASED 555.5% to 539,088 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
GV                82,247         539,088        +456,841      +555.45%           2

Based on GV's 20-day average daily share volume of 335,140, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

GV up almost 10%. no news. any thoughts?

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 20, 2006, 05:56:59 AM
A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.  We won't be picky...1.57...1.58 probably would be fine, too.

Last week's close was 1.57, "close enough" for the Bullish Morning Star on the weekly close.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 04:49:01 AM
A "steady as she goes," base-building rally to that 1.59-1.60 area by Friday's closes would be good, technically.   That would get the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green line) moving up above the slower 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) as it should be, very much like an MACD.

Very nice "steady as she goes" action this week.  Up Monday...down Tuesday and Wednesday...up Thursday and Friday. 

The faster 8-day Tenkan-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-Sen yesterday, June 30, so that's gotten "in gear."  The Kumo (Cloud) is overhead resistance, at 1.8825 - 1.995 (I'll post that next).

Quote from: winner919 on June 30, 2006, 01:49:14 PM
GV up almost 10%. no news. any thoughts?

winner,

Players might be recognizng the nice job of base-building the "Kid GV" has done recently, although given the fact that we now know that  he turned 100 years-old this week, "Old Man GV" might be a more appropriate appellation.

:D  >:D

Volume on Friday was better than half a million shares, which was good.  Volume on several days during this base-building period was well under one hundred thousand shares.

"Old Man GV" now has a chance of an Ascending Triangle breakout (pattern in purple), or an Inverse H&S breakout (pattern in green),  either of which would put the 2.30s or 2.40s IN PLAY, depending on the point of the breakout.

A little more pullback here would be nice.  "The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next...

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart shows "At a glance...the table of balance."

Generally speaking, if price is above the Kumo (Cloud), which is the vertical lines, the Bulls are in control.  Bears are in control below the Kumo (Cloud).

Remember a week ago, when the Kijun-sen at 1.60 was resistance?

This week, the Kijun-sen at 1.60 was good support.

Tuesday's low: 1.60.
Wednesday's low: 1.60.
Wednesday's close: 1.60
Thursday's open: 1.60
Thursday's low: 1.60

After establishing that strong support at 1.60 , GV moved up smartly on Thursday and Friday, and we can see that on Friday, June 30, the 8-day Tenksen-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen.  That's good.  It "suggests" a change in trend from Bearish to Bullish. 

Now we need to see GV get through the Kumo (Cloud), which is overhead resistance, at 1.8825-1.995.  Good base-building, like we're seeing, is helpful in getting through that resistance.

Next, I'll post the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart from early 2006, to show how GV was "in gear" for a rally.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.  Early, 2006.

Melf:
Thank you very much for your wonderful analysis. Applaud

winner,

You're very welcome.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2006, 06:35:45 AM
we can see that on Friday, June 30, the 8-day Tenksen-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen.  That's good.  It "suggests" a change in trend from Bearish to Bullish. 

Nice upside follow-thru on Monday, after the Bullish Cross.

QuoteNow we need to see GV get through the Kumo (Cloud), which is overhead resistance, at 1.8825 - 1.995.  Good base-building, like we're seeing, is helpful in getting through that resistance.

The close was 1.89, right at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

Often, stocks have a difficult time ramming their way through that resistance on the first attempt.

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) has risen a hair, to 2.00.  The Descending Triangle breakdown was 2.09-2.10.  Although that wasn't a very large pattern, there was a lot of volume during that topping pattern.

So, 2.00-2.10 should offer some resistance.  I'd like to see a pullback, either here at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), at 2.00, then an assault on that resistance.

"The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

"Old Man GV" has done a good job lately.  So far, he's up 42% off that 1.33 low.  :o

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 04, 2006, 09:25:35 AM
I'd like to see a pullback, either here at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), at 2.00, then an assault on that resistance.

"The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

I very much like the fact that yesterday's pullback came from the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud).  That gives us a fairly flat neckline for a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout (pattern in green), or a flat top for a Bullish Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

For the Bullish Inverse H&S, the low of the Right Shoulder traditionally is higher than the low of the Left Shoulder, which was 1.41, so there's a lot of room between yesterday's close of 1.79 and that low of 1.41 to go down and form a Right Shoulder.   We also would like to see low volume in this Right Shoulder, indicating that while the stock is selling off, sellers are pretty much done, and that the stock is ready to move to higher ground.

We want to watch the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).  Thus far, there only are two data points on that trendline, so we don't know whether or not it's meaningful.  We can connect any two data points on a chart, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's an important trendline. 

If we go down and tag that trendline, then bounce higher, that's called a trendline validation.  The market would be telling us that players are well-aware of the trendline, and that they aren't going to allow the stock to go below it.  Players, in that circumstance, view the trendline as support, and as a place to enter the stock long when that occurs.

NOTE: if it violates the trendline only nominally (by a half penny, or a penny), then the stock rallies, that's fine.  It's still a validation.  We can't require exactitude.

The slope of that trendline is +0.02286 per day.  Here are the data points for the next few sessions:

Thursday, July 6 - 1.696

Friday, July 7 - 1.719

Monday July 10 - 1.741

Possible Bullsih Technical Scenarios for "Old Man GV":

1. We knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance right now, on some bullish fundamental news...or news of hurricanes, etc.

That wouldn't be my preference.  I'd like to see more backing and filling to strengthen the chart.

2. We get the Ascending Triangle validation that I just described, then breakout.

3. We break the ascending line that I just described, but make a low just below it, then rally.  We'd have to do a trendline "redraw," but it still would be a valid Ascending Triangle breakout if GV takes out 1.87-1.90 resistance afterwards.

4. We get the Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green) with the low on this selloff somewhere above 1.41, which is the low of the Left Shoulder.

5. We double-bottom at/near 1.33, then go up and knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance.

In other words, the underdog, "Old Man GV," by rallying 42% off the 1.33 low, has given himself a lot of chances here, pattern-wise and technically, to have a nice upside breakout.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart coming up next...

In addition to being rejected at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines, yesterday's candlestick was a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so both of those factors suggest further correction of the recent 42% rally.

The 8-day Tenkan-sen (green) and the 22-day Kijun-sen look like dots yesterday on the chart.  They're disconnected because of the holiday.

Remember all of those tags of 1.60 that we had last week, at the red Kijun-sen?  We can "see at a glance...the table of balance" (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo), that the stock was temporizing there, and finding support at 1.60 smack on the Kijun-sen (red) while the faster 8-dayTenkan-sen played catch-up, prior to the June 30 Bullish Cross (green line went above the red line).

The Kumo (Cloud) proved to be resistance this week, which we expected.  What would be very nice now, after seeing the 22-day Kijun-sen provide support last week, would be for the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green dot) to provide support on this selloff.  It's currently at 1.69, right near the ascendling line (purple) on the last chart, at 1.696.

It isn't necessary for that to occur, of course, for the outcome still to be bullish, but it would be nice to see that.  We've already seen the 22-day Kijun-sen (red) provide support last week, at 1.60.  Now let's see if the Tenkan-sen can provide support.

Melf Elf,

I love reading your analyses. You really help me to think hard about the technical behavior of a stock and it makes me realize just how little I know. When I first started reading your posts on 3SOF, most of the time I had no idea what you were talking about...I was clueless. Now I can at least follow along a bit.

Anyhow, thank you, and please keep it up. You're an invaluable asset to this board.

I don't know much about Tenkan-sens or Kijun-sens, but I do know Ichiro is hitting .350 ;)

Regarding GV, I see a cup and handle on the chart with an implied target of ~$2.20 on a breakout.

Quote from: wchankent on July 06, 2006, 04:57:14 PM
When I first started reading your posts on 3SOF, most of the time I had no idea what you were talking about...I was clueless. Now I can at least follow along a bit.

wchankent,

I greatly appreciate the feedback.  I sometimes wonder if the amounnt of detail that I post is way-y too much, or if it helps anyone to understand what's going on, technically.  Thank you.

Quote from: Lucas Scott on July 06, 2006, 05:47:29 PM
I don't know much about Tenkan-sens or Kijun-sens, but I do know Ichiro is hitting .350 ;)

:D

Quote
Regarding GV, I see a cup and handle on the chart with an implied target of ~$2.20 on a breakout.

Luke,

That's another possibility.  I'm also thinking that GV might already have broken out above a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern (pattern in blue on the chart below), in which case 2.165  is IN PLAY, very near your 2.20.  (On the patterns that I posted yesterday, I get a target of 2.40-ish).

The neckline of this pattern has a steep, downward slope, but several things would seem to give it validity:

1. The volume looks right.  Heaviest in the Left Shoulder.  Next heaviest at the low.  Volume dried up in the small Right Shoulder on those tests of 1.60.  Good volume (for this stock) on the June 30 breakout.  Over half a million shares.

2. The faster 8-day Tenkan-sen made of Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen on the breakout.

3. 34-55 RSIs also  had a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout on June 30. (I'll post that next)

In any case, GV is acting well here.  ;)

Before I post the 34/55RSIs, I'll post the 13/21RSIs, which is where I start.  (We'll skip the sequential 21/34 RSIs).

13/21 RSIs:

34/55RSIs:

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 06, 2006, 07:08:17 AM
In addition to being rejected at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines, yesterday's candlestick was a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so both of those factors suggest further correction of the recent 42% rally.

We got more correction.  At Friday's close, GV is 9.5% off Monday's 1.90 high.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 06, 2006, 06:48:06 AM
If we go down and tag that trendline, then bounce higher, that's called a trendline validation.  The market would be telling us that players are well-aware of the trendline, and that they aren't going to allow the stock to go below it.  Players, in that circumstance, view the trendline as support, and as a place to enter the stock long when that occurs.

The slope of that trendline is +0.02286 per day.  Here are the data points for the next few sessions:

Friday, July 7 - 1.719

Friday's close was 1.72, smack on the Ascending line of the possible Bullish Ascending Triangle.

Quote
Possible Bullsih Technical Scenarios for "Old Man GV":

2. We get the Ascending Triangle validation that I just described, then breakout.

Friday's low and close of 1.72 close brings Bullish Scenario #2 to the fore.   Note also that 1.72 was the June 27 high, prior to the move to 1.90.  "Former resistance should become support."

Quote
NOTE: if it violates the trendline only nominally (by a half penny, or a penny), then the stock rallies, that's fine.  It's still a validation.  We can't require exactitude.

No, we can't, but we also can't can't allow too much sloppiness.

Here's the problem with Friday's ascending trendline validation:  the trendline rises 0.02286 per day, so on Monday, July 10, the trendline will be at 1.741.  If GV opens unchanged at 1.72, it automatically will be in violation of that trendline.

:(

That doesn't mean that all is lost (we've got other bullish scenarios), but if we start seeing prints on Monday  of 1.71...1.70...1.69...we can forget about that trendline validation, and we also can forget about "former resistance at 1.72 becoming support."

:(

Three weeks ago, coming off the 1.33 low after the break of 1.41 support, we discussed wanting to see "Old Man GV' just stand in there...defend himself...throw a few well-placed punches, and try just to get back in the bout.  No attempts at a knockout punch.  Nice and steady.

Wow!  GV's performance since then has been near-perfection.  As the chart stands, we've got the possibility of a Bullish Inverse H&S...or a Bullish Ascending Triangle...or Lucas Scott's Bullish Cup & Handle.  Have what you will, the chart structure is impressive, as it stands.

Obviously, we need a BREAKOUT, though.  Preferably, NOW.  ;D

The reason that I say that is because the work is done.  The chart looks beautiful, and the technicals also are beautifully positioned for a breakout.  1.60, as we discussed, clearly was established as support, prior to the move to 1.90.

If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

Next, a few RSI charts that demonstrate what I mean about the chart being "technically ready" for the breakout, and the problem that we'd have if "Old Man GV" doesn't break out here.

On Friday, the 34 RSI fell back below its shadow, the 55RSI.  That isn't fatal, but it's a WARNING.  "Do you want to sell?"

My answer in this case would be "NO" because GV is sitting at 1.72, which is smack on the ascending line, and which also is a re-test of a prior high (June 27).

Sometimes, one Fibonnaci measure of realive strength goes "out of sync" in order for one or more other measures of relative strength to come into synchronicity.

It's a judgment call, based on the chart, and based on other technicals that we look at, whether or not we want to take a signal.  But, this is what I mean by,  "We don't want to see too much sloppiness."

What are other measures of RSI indicating?

Next, we'll look at the 13/21 RSIs, then the longer-term 144/233 RSIs (that's as far out as I go.  233, roughly, is one year's worth of trading).   

EDIT: Sorry, I had to delete an repost that last chart.  I had my Fibonacci sequences out of sequence.  :D

The 13/21 RSIs are coming back into synchronicity, and they have a little more "room" on the downside.  This looks fine.

The 144/233 RSIs have come into Bullish synchronicity, right at the 233 day exponential moving average. 

Observe back in June, when the 144 RSI went below its 233 RSI "shadow." (red arrows).  That was "We've got problems, Houston!"  and it took awhile to repair that technical damage, and to get the 144/233 "back in sync."

This one is READY!  If we draw a trendline across the 1.87-1.90 highs (I didn't want to make the chart unreadable), it's also a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.

We don't want to see a failure here (144 going back below its 233 "shadow").

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 08, 2006, 07:36:47 AM
Here's the problem with Friday's ascending trendline validation:  the trendline rises 0.02286 per day, so on Monday, July 10, the trendline will be at 1.741.  If GV opens unchanged at 1.72, it automatically will be in violation of that trendline.

:(

That doesn't mean that all is lost (we've got other bullish scenarios), but if we start seeing prints on Monday  of 1.71...1.70...1.69...we can forget about that trendline validation, and we also can forget about "former resistance at 1.72 becoming support."

:(

1.72 support is broken.  :(

Quote
If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

1.60 is next support.   

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 10, 2006, 10:54:07 AM
If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

1.60 is next support.   

Quote

GV has printed 1.59.  That's TWO breaks of support in one day.  UGH...

Don't panic Melf. Get ready to do a mo'n back!

Quote from: Lucas Scott on July 10, 2006, 01:45:21 PM
Don't panic Melf. Get ready to do a mo'n back!

Luke,

I don't own GV.   I just would like to see this work out, but these breaks of support make it difficult for those of you who are long.

My Bullish Inverse H&S scenario (shown below) also is blown.  The neckline comes in today at about 1.65, so the break below that level suggests either that the neckline re-test failed, or that the pattern wasn't valid, as I had thought.

The 22-day Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which acted as strong support at 1.60, currently is at 1.615, and we're below that also.

The 34/55 RSI that gave us the WARNING at Friday's close will head down some more on any negative close today.

:(

There's still the Inverse H&S possibility (neckline 1.87-1.91) and the Double Bottom possibility at/near 1.33, but that's a lot of drawdown, and makes it tough on you guys.

:(

I'd sure like to see it at least close at 1.60, or better. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 04, 2006, 09:25:35 AM


5. We double-bottom at/near 1.33, then go up and knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance.

Melf:

do you think we get double bottom now?

Thanks

winner

Quote from: winner919 on July 19, 2006, 05:23:00 PM
Melf:

do you think we get double bottom now?

Thanks

winner,

After the nasty breaks of support on July 10, beginning with the break of 1.72 support right at the open, GV went all the way down to 1.25.  That's a big drawdown, which was my concern that afternoon for any of you holding. UGH.

MACD didn't confirm the new low, however, so a double bottom certainly is possible (I'll show you that chart next).  But, bullish divergences are meaningless without price confirmation. 

GV, currently at 1.42,  is well below resistance.

Remember back in late June, when 1.60 was solid support at the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line)?

The price area just below 1.60 now is solid resistance.   >:(

1. 1.575 - the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line)

2. 1.53 - the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)...the vertical red lines.

3. 1.49 - the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line)

All of the nice base-building that GV did in June has been blown, so GV has to start all over again. 

Looking at this Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart "table of balance...at a glance" below, we can see at a glance that the table of balance strongly favors the Bears.  The Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical red llines, extends from 1.53 to 2.035.  It looks more like a mountain of resistance, or a brick wall than it does a cloud.

:(

Technically, GV has got some work to do.

MACD didn't confirm the recent low and is turning higher, so that's at least encouraging that GV possibly has made a double bottom here.

As I said in the last post, though, bullish divergences in a bearish trend are meaningless without price doing something bullish, as well, and GV has some work to do on the upside, so we don't want to make too much of a bullish divergence.

"Bear markets descend on a cushion of hope."

Thank you for your analysis, Melf. I am still holding it and I hope next hurricane can drive it up.

Quote from: winner919 on July 20, 2006, 10:48:54 AM
Thank you for your analysis, Melf. I am still holding it and I hope next hurricane can drive it up.

winner,

You're welcome.  It looks like GV is going to need something on the fundamental front.  Technically, it's looking pretty lousy here.

In addition to the stacked resistance beginning at 1.49 that I outlined in my post this morning, near-term resistance, basis the 10-minute chart below, is at 1.44.  GV has been trying to get through there for the past few days, and repeatedly has gotten refused.

GV needs to hold the recent 1.25-1.26 lows, then print 1.45.  Good luck with this one, winner.  I hope that it turns higher for you.

Up 5% today, I assume due to the possiblie hurricande in the Carribean.  Anyone still holding or thinking of getting in?

Nothing too exciting with GV yet.

I bought last month and holding through the Hurricane Season.  The chances of hurricanes really picks up through the month of August into September.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 20, 2006, 02:42:34 PM

In addition to the stacked resistance beginning at 1.49 that I outlined in my post this morning, near-term resistance, basis the 10-minute chart below, is at 1.44.  GV has been trying to get through there for the past few days, and repeatedly has gotten refused.

On August 2, GV made it to the low end of stacked resistance, 1.49, and has been holding at solid 1.25 - 1.26 support since then.  Unfortunately, that support was taken out this morning, and if GV doesn't reverse this afternoon and close at least at 1.25, all of the trading for nearly six weeks, between 1.25 and 1.49, will become additional resistance.

GV currently is BID 1.17...ASK 1.18

Sorry, guys.  This has been a tough play for some of you.  I've had many of them over the years, and I think that the best that we can do is to learn from our mistakes.

1. Honor Thy Stops

2. Don't Let A Loss Become A Disaster

3. Don't Double Down On A Loser

There will be other trades, so "Live to play another day."

I am averaged in at 1.18 so am still losing money on this trade so far, but GV is starting to run on the hurricane potential, up 8% today.

so, tok, you are starting to make money on GV now. congratulations. Sell it at 5? ;)

Quote from: winner919 on August 25, 2006, 02:04:55 PM
so, tok, you are starting to make money on GV now. congratulations. Sell it at 5? ;)

Heh, a little early to start thinking about that, I will be happy just to see it trade above its 50sma again.  And if it gets even half of your $5 projection I will do cartwheels and backflips in celebration  ;D

Just to give an input:

GV broke its long term support a few weeks ago, had a reactive sell off and is trying to rebound now. The mid term resistance (descending) is $1.28, but the main technical factor in my opinion is GV getting above $1.40 ASAP to invalidate the recent support breakdown.

Good luck !  ;)

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 29, 2006, 02:22:48 AM
Just to give an input:

GV broke its long term support a few weeks ago, had a reactive sell off and is trying to rebound now. The mid term resistance (descending) is $1.28, but the main technical factor in my opinion is GV getting above $1.40 ASAP to invalidate the recent support breakdown.

Good luck !  ;)

Rams, I agree with you about needing to get above $1.40, specifically above 1.41 which is the 50sma now.

Today was a good step in that direction, up 7.26% to close at HOD at 1.33 on decent volume.  It was somewhat slow until it went above 1.26 (the 200sma) then it really took off.  1.26 should serve as strong support now, 1.40 is easily in sight, its just a question if it can go above that.  I will be thinking about selling half around that area, depending on the chart and the weather at that time, etc.

noticed that gv reported good earnings. up from here?

The GV Threads in Previous 3SOF Picks
Have been merged.
Got the go ahead to do so from Ramsburg.
I will be working here on this board to merge other threads also.

I will leave you Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread....... 

Good trading to all !   

Regards,
Your fellow trader @3SOF
setravis