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Public 3SOF Boards => Stock Picking => Topic started by: AustinPowers on June 09, 2005, 09:56:38 PM

Title: ELN - Sector: Healthcare - Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs
Post by: AustinPowers on June 09, 2005, 09:56:38 PM
Does anyone think the Elan chart looks good right now ??? It had some positive news and a nice rally today.  Sorry, I don't know how to copy the chart here.  Fantastic site, very new at this but learning so much.  There are some very experienced traders here.
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: calven on June 09, 2005, 10:40:48 PM
Wow I think I like this trade! Nice ascening triangle forming...I will look to buy in tomorrow on any weakness ($6.40-6.50) . However I willl have a stop loss in place just below that green support line($6.10). It could drop fast should that support break.

Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: AustinPowers on June 09, 2005, 10:50:33 PM
Cal-

Thanks for posting the chart.  How do you cut and paste from stockcharts into th the email?
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: stocky on June 09, 2005, 10:58:52 PM
" Porges reiterated his stance that for Tysabri ever to return, it would have to conduct several years of additional trials and would be suitable for far fewer patients. He estimates the probability of the drug ever returning to the market at 35%. "We view any gains for Biogen Idec or Elan stock on this news as unwarranted, and would advise clients to sell on the strength," Porges wrote. "

If ELN crosses 8.5 on large volume then there may be some good news in the waiting. However, at the moment its quite risky.
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: eliteG on June 09, 2005, 11:02:16 PM
I agree with stocky...there are better plays out there..but if you must, be light on your feet, imo.
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: calven on June 09, 2005, 11:04:50 PM
I definately agree with that analysis...thats why i advise a tight stop loss. Go to additional options below to post charts.
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: calven on June 09, 2005, 11:50:27 PM
ELN has come to far to fast in my opinoun. From 3.00 to 8.00 . That resistance of 8.40ish seems to be pretty heavy. I still do like the trade but would like it even more if ELN broke up to 8.75-9.00 on good volume...Again I emphasize a tight stop loss just below that green line on the chart.

Good luck. Ill be buying in tomorrow...
Title: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: bula on June 15, 2005, 11:43:53 AM
ELN just spiked from $6.75 to $7.18 on very heavy intraday volume.  Bought at $6.95 and watching close for any news.  Could be the next runner.

FYI.
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: bula on June 15, 2005, 02:23:52 PM
ELN is an erratic trader and only for those with quick triggers. But ELN is moving nicely today.  Great momo now at $7.20. 

Biogen (it's Tysabri partner) has a big investor conference tonight and although I hate rumors, many are speculating that the recent study on the Tsyabri debacle is complete.  Good news is anticipated soon. 

So as the old saying goes .. "buy the rumor"

Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: bula on June 16, 2005, 09:24:00 AM
Well well  ;D  ;D  ;D  Gapping premarket $7.3.  Should see nice gains today.  Looking for $8 this week.

DJ UK PRESS: Elan Parkinson's Vaccine Works On Mice-Research   
06/16/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

LONDON (Dow Jones)--A Parkinson's disease vaccine being developed by Elan Corp. (ELN) works well in mice, according to research conducted at University of California, San Diego, the Financial Times reported Thursday. The news might help ease downward pressure on the Irish biotechnology company's share price, the paper says.   The researchers said the vaccine might also work for Alzheimer's, which produces clumps of the same protein in the brain. The research will be published this month in the journal Neuron.
Title: ELN
Post by: JMoney on June 29, 2005, 12:27:51 PM
ELN is moving on high volume.
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: bula on August 09, 2005, 07:52:33 AM
Well it looks like the Tysabri results may finally be coming in.  Those that held and were patient will see some nice rewards.   Premarket bids opened at 10 today.  Could be an enormous day.  A joint Biogen and Elan conference call is scheduled this morning prior to the open.  If Tsyabri is cleared from issues related to past deaths, this one could see 15-20 quickly .. particularly since Elan was 27 before the drop to 3 six months ago.

We'll see soon.
Bula
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: TVandenbosch on August 09, 2005, 09:26:37 AM
Am in @$9.25, way too late I am afraid.  ???
Let's sit, relax and wait...  :-\
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: cumulina on August 09, 2005, 10:27:38 AM
I'm with you...couldn't resist.

Got in at 9.19

Still doing fine in Europe: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ELA.L&d=t

Good luck to us ;)
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: pollax on August 09, 2005, 10:58:38 AM
Hi - im in from 6 and sitting and waiting to take my profit. Stupid or what? Should i aim for more? Anybody who has a target - how high is possible for this one to go?

pollax

Yes im danish  ;D
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: Tirebldr on August 09, 2005, 11:54:30 AM
Am I correct in assuming there is a strong resistance at that gap at at $9.75?
If it ever busted that resistance, what's the chance of it surging to the top of the gap at $26.75?  Good question for those who can figure it all out. Is the pullback (if there is one)  a good time to buy in and continue to wait?
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: phabrux on August 13, 2005, 06:37:46 PM

ELN is not far from the support line

and could rebound very quickly IMHO!
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: Melf Elf on August 14, 2005, 04:43:32 AM
Quote from: phabrux on August 13, 2005, 06:37:46 PM

ELN is not far from the support line

and could rebound very quickly IMHO!


Thanks for the alert.  Applause.

If it weren't for the fact that ELN gaps around on news about Tysabri, I'd rate this as a very high confidence, low-risk trade.  However, we know that this stock is at higher risk for a gap down than usual.

That said, barring a gap down, the chart is shaping up very nicely for a rally.   For a stop, I'd use any convincing close below the up trendline off the March 31 low. Buyers repeatedly have stepped up to the plate any time the stock goes near the up trendline off that low, including the black candle on Friday.

If on Monday, for example, we get a bullish hammer with a close right near the up trendline, say 7.88...7.89...7.90...7.91...I wouldn't be convinced that it's a sell.  But, if Monday is a black candle that closes near the low of the day, and closes below the up trendline (for Monday, it comes in at 7.917), I UNFAILINGLY would sell it.

The chart is telling us that the up trendline has been validated THREE TIMES as support.  If that's no longer the case, I'd get out of there.  Sell.

What I'd like to see on Monday, is for the stock to head down agian in the morning toward the up trendline at 7.91, then close higher.  Or, a just a little bit lower, with a bullish hammer.  Something like that.

Good luck to anyone who trades it, and to those already in it.  ELN is on my watch list for Monday.
Title: Re: ELN catching intraday momo (ALERT!)
Post by: phabrux on August 14, 2005, 05:52:26 AM

Melf_Elf thanks for the precision

in this analysis.

Applause.
Title: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on August 28, 2005, 11:16:25 AM
Ready to roll. CEO says Tysabri will be back by the end of summer. Similar to EYET only much better.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on August 28, 2005, 11:22:07 AM
I also think BIDU and NTES are going to do well this week.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: oicpecnoc on August 28, 2005, 11:24:46 AM
Unless someone dies from PML.  A possibility one cannot rule out.  Yes, all drugs run this risk, but this one is higher because it has already happened MULTIPLE times.  I get a long term risk/reward investment, but I have always thought the "trading" rewards on this stock are outweighed by the potential risk/loss.  When a PML death occurs, try to get a sell order filled.  Not easy.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on August 28, 2005, 11:32:06 AM
Tysabri was not the cause of PML. Avonex in combo or alone is the cause. I saw 100,000 and 200,000 buys on Thursday and Friday. Buy out is a strong possibility.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: 422fwhp on August 28, 2005, 04:58:33 PM
Hey Goldie!

There is a main thread for ELN (link below)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1660.msg18144#msg18144

I just posted some recent news.  Please comment.

Jody
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on August 28, 2005, 05:31:21 PM
If it goes down buy more, if it goes up buy more. Tysabri is coming back very soon.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on September 01, 2005, 11:58:46 AM
DJ ) 09/01 01:51AM DJ Biogen Idec To Seek Stronger Warning Label For MS Drug
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP)--Biogen Idec Inc. will ask federal regulators to allow
it to resume sales of a multiple sclerosis drug linked to a brain disease with
additional warning labels, the company's CEO said in an interview.
James Mullen said Wednesday that Biogen Idec will likely recommend that
Tysabri include warnings about three cases of an often-fatal brain disease
that were confirmed after clinical trials of the drug, which was withdrawn
from the market Feb. 28 despite hopes that it would become an important new
tool in treating MS.
Mullen said the revised label that the company will propose to the U.S. Food
and Drug Administration also will warn about risks for patients who have weak
immune systems and therefore could be more susceptible to contracting the
disease, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML.
However, Mullen said the label language his company will suggest to FDA when
it seeks permission to resume marketing Tysabri will acknowledge that
scientists don't yet understand precisely how the bioengineered drug put the
three patients who contracted PML at risk of contracting the rare disease. Two
of those patients died.
"I think it's important for us to not overstate what we know," Mullen,
Biogen Idec's chief executive and president, said in an interview with The
Associated Press at the company's Cambridge headquarters. "We want to be
concrete about what we know and what we don't know."
Mullen said Biogen Idec and its Irish partner on Tysabri, Elan Corp., plan
to submit findings from their review of the drug's safety to the FDA by the
end of September.
The companies had previously said the report would be submitted sometime in
the fall so the FDA could review whether Tysabri can safely return to the
market. Some industry analysts have said strong warnings on Tysabri's label
could ruin the drug's chances of becoming a commercial success.
Mullen said it is "highly unlikely" the FDA will complete its own review by
year's end, but he said the regulators are "interested in a thorough but
expeditious review of determining whether this can brought back to the market
in the near future or not."
FDA spokeswoman Lenore Gelb declined to comment Wednesday.
Biogen Idec and Elan said Aug. 9 that more than 2,000 patients with multiple
sclerosis who took Tysabri in clinical trials had been screened for PML as
part of the companies' safety review, but no new cases were found.
The companies are close to finishing a similar review of about 1,500 people
who took Tysabri in clinical trials to test its effectiveness in treating
Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.
After reviewing one year of data from planned two-year trials, federal
regulators in November approved Tysabri for sale to the 350,000 American
sufferers of MS, a debilitating and incurable disease in which the body's
immune system turns rebellious, attacking, inflaming and damaging its own
nerve tissue.
The drug was withdrawn about three months after its approval, causing Biogen
shares to plunge more than 42% the day of the announcement while Elan's stock
fell 70%.
"We hope there is a pathway back to the market," Mullen said. "We think that
unless we see some new surprises, that the risk-benefit profile for this
product certainly warrants it being used for MS.
"We've got probably hundreds of letters from patients saying, 'Tysabri
changed my life. I've got no other options. I'll sign whatever waiver I need
to get access to this product."'
Title: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on September 18, 2005, 01:01:53 PM
Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) said it will cut its workforce by 17% by the end of the year; that means some 650 workers will be chopped worldwide in order to save $200 million to $300 million in expenses. The biotechnology firm expects to take a pre-tax charge of between $30 million to $40 million related to severance and associated staff restructuring costs. Biogen Idec and partner Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) halted sales of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri last February after reports of a rare and potentially fatal central nervous system disease in patients. Data related to a completed safety review for Tysabri is expected to be handed over to the FDA by Sept. 21.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: goldieboox56 on September 18, 2005, 01:06:52 PM
May be a big week for ELN if the data goes through. It could get bought out just as well at this low price.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: rocket8 on September 20, 2005, 09:17:56 PM
there is an ELN thread already but i guess i will post here.
these threads are sometimes confusing.
do u post on an old thread that might be long but has died months ago or do you start a fresh new thread ?
problems exist both ways...

anyway....

ELN looks good.  what do you think about resistance?  where do you see resistance?

-rocket8
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: rocket8 on September 21, 2005, 02:00:31 AM
September 21, 2005
Move to Reinstate Multiple Sclerosis Drug

Biogen Idec Inc. and the Elan Corporation said yesterday that they would seek federal regulatory approval to resume sales of the withdrawn Tysabri drug for multiple sclerosis.

A safety evaluation of the drug for use against Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis will be completed "in the coming weeks," the companies said in a joint statement.

They said that they completed a safety evaluation of the drug for use in multiple sclerosis patients in August.

Biogen, which is based in Cambridge, Mass., and Elan, which is based in Ireland, withdrew Tysabri from the market Feb. 28 after three patients developed a rare neurological disease.
Title: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on October 21, 2005, 01:00:13 PM
Buying large position at $8.08 and accumulating dips into Wednesday.  We'll see if this pays off, but the price is off its highs so risk seems worthwhile.

/Bula



DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Elan Corp. PLC (ELN) is hoping a U.S. Federal Drug Administration decision due next week at the earliest will give priority review for its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, observers said Friday.

Elan and joint partner Biogen Idec PLC (BIIB) last month requested priority review status for Tysabri, which could result in action by the FDA 6 months from last month's submission date, rather than 10 months.

This could see Tysabri back on the market by March, rather than mid-summer 2006, say analysts, who expect the FDA to make a response by Wednesday though the FDA could also take another 30 days, an Elan spokeswoman said.

NCB Stockbrokers analyst Orla Hartford, who has a buy on Elan, said she's "hopeful" that the FDA will grant a priority review aimed at fast-tracking Tysabri's return to market "due to the unmet medical need in MS."

Elan and Biogen Idec suspended Tysabri in the U.S. Feb. 28 after two patients contacted the rare neurological disease PML. A third case was confirmed later. All affected patients were on combination therapy.

Before Elan's third-quarter results next Thursday, NCB's Hartford said focus will remain firmly on Elan's approximate $870 million net debt and, crucially, on priority status for Tysabri by the FDA.

In August, Elan said a safety study found no new PML cases in MS Tysabri patients and, this week, confirmed no new cases in those with Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis, completing its safety review of 3,000 patients.

Still, while most analysts who hold the stock are betting on Tysabri returning to market, some fund managers are still skeptical, saying Tysabri needs to be the much-hoped for blockbuster drug.

Anne Marieke Ezendam, who runs the global healthcare fund at Threadneedle Investments in London, said she's "convinced" Tysabri will come back to market, "but to a smaller market and not before summer of 2006."

"Elan's underlying cash burn on sales force and research is very high," she said. "Tysabri needs around $550 million per year in sales to offset Elan's current spending. I'm not sure if the market will support that."

Elan has also submitted Tysabri's two-year Phase III data, safety review data and its proposals for labelling/monitoring of Tysabri patients to the European Medicines Agency. No timeline has yet been given.

At 1626 GMT, Elan's shares were down 27 cents, or 3.8%, at EUR6.73 on the Irish Stock Exchange. The ISEQ Overall Index was down 1.2%. The shares have fallen from EUR20.30 after Tysabri was suspended in February.

After a volatile few years, the company seems to be continuing a focus on reducing costs and simplifying its business model and balance sheet, while also focusing on its key drugs, Tyasbri and pain drug Prialt, analysts say.

The safety review comes after a long and arduous recovery, which began with a change of senior management in 2002, when Elan's late former CEO and Chairman Donal Geaney resigned amid accounting troubles and a falling share price.

Company Web site: http://www.elan.com

-By Quentin Fottrell, Dow Jones Newswires; +353 1 676 2189; [email protected]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-21-05 1229ET

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on October 24, 2005, 09:42:01 AM
Now $8.27 and climbing.  ELN should continue to rise into BIIB earnings on Wednesday.  I expect $8.5-$9.  Expectations that Tysabri will get some good news from FDA or Biogen.If FDA gives fast track return to market, ELN will be $15 by Friday.

Tracking the bidders closely for insider moves.  But so far, I love my buy in.

Bula
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: akclide on October 24, 2005, 09:58:45 AM
I do not think it will move that high that fast,as this fda decission will only confirm the results in 6 months or 10 and not weather the drug is back in or not.
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on October 24, 2005, 10:49:12 AM
from the article I posted above ..

"This could see Tysabri back on the market by March"

That would be huge news and justify a big pop.
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on November 11, 2005, 03:54:19 PM
ELN hitting $9.5+ now.  FDA review due within a week or 2.  This has been a great 3 week hold for me (up +1.5).  I still say $15 will happen quick if the FDA given a positive output on Tysabri.

Bula
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on November 18, 2005, 08:51:23 AM
NEWS - FDA gives Tysabri a priority review .. as I mentioned would occur. This was EASY money folks. I hoped to see a bigger pop on the news AH - ELN got to about $11.50.   Not bad for a 4 week play.

We may still see a nice move at the open, but in any case.  Selling the news is always best.  I'll watch close and if it doesn't pop to yesterdays AH highs, i'll take my profits.

Happy trading all,
Bula
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: calven on November 18, 2005, 08:58:32 AM
There was already an ELN thread created in the forum...

Please go to SEARCH on the top of this page and type in "ELN" you should be able to find it from there....

That is why nobody is replying to you, its because there is already a 7 page thread on ELN - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1660.90

Thanks,
Cal
Title: Re: Grab ELN for FDA review next week
Post by: bula on November 18, 2005, 09:40:36 AM
Sold at $11.02 almost +3

Thanks for the info on the other thread.  Didn't know that.

I'm out so this thread is done.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 12, 2006, 01:28:06 PM
After a few months of consolidatin ELN is breaking out of an ascending triangle.  Volume is slowly picking up, ahead of likely re-introduction of MS blockbuster drug Tysabri.

Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 15, 2006, 05:01:00 PM
ELN continues to move up on good volume.  ELN printed 16.87, a 52 week high.  It broke an ascending triangle last Friday and appears to have formed a 5 month cup.  Could we see a handle form??  News about FDA re-introduction of MS drug,Tysabri, is right around the corner and will be out, at the latest, by mid-June.  This one has a huge gap to fill up to $25 from just over a year ago.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 16, 2006, 05:27:01 PM
Updated chart on ELN.  Broke a 52 week high today with increasing volume and 3 consecutive white candles.  Still waiting FDA news regarding MS drug, Tysabri, re-introduction.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 18, 2006, 10:45:04 AM
ELN...would be nice to get a nice big white candle surrounding the red one from yesterday  ;D
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 19, 2006, 11:23:31 PM
ELN has held up well, even against adverse market conditions.  Is something up??  Waiting on FDA re-intro of blockbuster MS drug Tysabri.  Question is what will the pre-cautions be??
Gap to $26.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 22, 2006, 06:11:27 PM
ELN started off very promising this morning, even when the stock market with going negative, ELN hit a 52 week high at 18.47 in high volume.  Unfortunately it fell in afternoon trading there fore it may start negative tomorrow AM but it may provide a buying opportunity.  A small triangle is setting up and the ascending line will be around 17.10.  Still an open gap to $25 from last year.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 22, 2006, 06:12:31 PM
ELN started off very promising this morning, even when the stock market with going negative, ELN hit a 52 week high at 18.47 in high volume.  Unfortunately it fell in afternoon trading there fore it may start negative tomorrow AM but it may provide a buying opportunity.  A small triangle is setting up and the ascending line will be around 17.10.  Still an open gap to $26 from last year.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: kslifka on May 26, 2006, 01:40:22 PM
ELN continues to do well.  Price action holding above breakout point with above average volume.
Title: Re: ELN
Post by: setravis on May 21, 2007, 01:21:58 PM
Elan Surges on Drug Trial.......
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: setravis on May 21, 2007, 01:36:19 PM
"ELN" Threads have been Merged......."Again"
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;D                                                 
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.   ;)                                                   
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.    :( ::)                                             
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$    ;)

 
Title: Re: ELN chart
Post by: setravis on August 02, 2008, 03:16:24 PM
Look out below.......

Another Murdered stock !
on possible overreaction, as the market often does.

See what happens after 2 days of disaster news!

52wk Range: 9.55 - 37.45
Volume: 137,626,089
Avg Vol (3m): 9,570,360
Market Cap: 4.70B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.696
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Record Price Low
Most Actives
Gap Down
Percentage Loser
Price Loser

Last Price Quote is:
-63.33%below 13-day MA
-66.46%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 3 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $4,707.40 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 10/23/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Sell

Title: Re: ELN
Post by: setravis on January 16, 2011, 07:45:53 PM
Biogen's Business Update
Zacks Equity Research, On Thursday January 13, 2011, 11:45 am EST

Biogen Idec (NasdaqGS: BIIB - News) recently provided an update on its pipeline and "Framework for Growth" program at the J. P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.

Business Update

Biogen had initially announced its "Framework for Growth" program in November 2010. With this program, Biogen is looking to streamline its operations and increase efficiencies. The program includes initiatives like streamlining of operations, shutting down of facilities, and workforce reduction.

Biogen reported that it has closed its San Diego facility and is consolidating sites in Massachusetts. The company has reduced its workforce by about 13% and expects to realize annual cost savings of about $300 million.

Tysabri Update

In December 2010, Biogen and partner Elan Corporation (NYSE: ELN - News) submitted applications in the US and the EU seeking approval for updating the label of their multiple sclerosis therapy, Tysabri. The companies are seeking permission to include anti-JC Virus antibody status as one potential factor that could help stratify the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) occurring in patients treated with Tysabri. A response should be out later this year.

Biogen said that it continues to work on expanding Tysabri's utilization across the world. The company estimates that as of the end of Dec 2010, about 56,600 multiple sclerosis patients were on Tysabri therapy worldwide. The company estimates new patient additions stood at 1,700 in the fourth quarter of 2010.

We note that new patient additions declined on a sequential basis. The company had reported new patient additions of 2,300 in the third quarter of 2010.  With new patient additions declining to 1,700 in the fourth quarter of 2010, we remain concerned that an increase in the number of PML cases associated with the use of the drug could hamper new patient additions.

Pipeline Update

Besides providing an update on Tysabri, Biogen provided an update on its pipeline. Biogen announced that it no longer intends to focus on the development of oncology and cardiovascular products. The company is looking to divest these products/candidates, which should allow it to focus on neurology and biologics instead. Biogen is developing candidates for neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson's, Alzheimer's and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

Biogen expects to launch five new products by 2015. Key pipeline candidates include dexpramipexole (phase III scheduled to commence for the treatment of ALS), BG-12 (phase III oral multiple sclerosis candidate), daclizumab (phase II ongoing for relapsing multiple sclerosis), and rFVIIIFc (global registrational trial ongoing in previously treated hemophilia A patients).

Biogen is yet to gain EU approval for fampridine for improving walking in patients with multiple sclerosis. The company reported that it received a letter of deficiency in Canada for the candidate.  A response from the EU regulatory authority should be out later this month.

Day's Range: 6.71 - 6.91
52wk Range: 4.35 - 8.24
Volume: 1,963,046
Avg Vol (3m): 2,826,790
Market Cap: 4.01B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.54
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
5.26%above 13-day EMA
14.97%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 68 
Title: Re: ELN - Sector: Healthcare - Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs
Post by: setravis on January 16, 2011, 07:49:44 PM
Xoma and Elan: A Tale of Two Mismanaged Biotech Companies, Part 2

ELAN

Although investors' fury at Elan's management is understandable and legitimate, the management's mistakes should not blind them to fairly assessing this firm, which has contributed to science and drug development more than most other drug developers, small and large. There is reason to believe that this contribution to science is the main reason behind the firm's financial debacle. Nevertheless, Elan's science, scientists, their discovered disease pathways, and the technologies they created have advanced the understanding of neurological diseases and made possible the management of diseases yet to find treatments. While drug companies design, discover and develop drugs that target validated pathways of diseases, Elan, itself, discovered the pathways of diseases for the drugs it designed and developed. In neuropathology, Elan's research and findings have enriched the medical libraries with breakthrough knowledge about the pathophysiology of diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis.

The firm developed several products for Alzheimer's disease based on its understanding of the disease pathways. In addition to its small molecule inhibitors of beta secretase and gamma secretase, the firm developed small molecule drugs that target neurotrophic receptors that could protect vulnerable people's neurons. It identified unusual forms of alpha-synuclein, a major component of Lewy bodies, which is a signature characteristic in the brain tissue of Parkinson's disease patients. This finding has led to therapeutic targets that are the focus of Elan's new drug discovery efforts.

It was Elan's scientists who discovered the role of the selective adhesion molecule, alpha 4 integrin protein, in the etiology of multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune diseases, including Crohn's disease. Alpha 4 integrin has a role in the movement of immune cells from the bloodstream into the tissues in response to inflammation. Elan's breakthrough selective adhesion molecule inhibitor Tysabri® (natalizumab) is approved for the treatment multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease. Yet, Elan's scientists continue to investigate new small molecule inhibitors that block alpha 4 integrin and may selectively block immune cell traficking. The firm's scientists are also studying signaling molecules that may be involved in the brain inflammation characteristic of secondary progressive MS. The firm aims at disrupting the pathway of chronic inflammation-neurodegeneration that causes permanent disability in advanced MS.

In addition to illuminating the molecular pathological pathways, selecting therapeutic targets, and designing evidence-based drugs, Elan created state-of-the-art technologies that enhance the safety and efficacy of products and, even better, make possible the development of products that lacked the physicochemical requirements of therapeutics. Elan's two important technologies, NanoCrystal technology and drug delivery technology have contributed to improving the actions, effects and side effects of several drugs.

That said, the question remains: does the resentment of the management's mistakes prevent us from trying to determine a fair value for this firm at the current stage?

Final word: Again, we prefer to be objective and do our homework, including taking into consideration the harm that resulted from the management's miscalculations. This harm, which has been financial, has reached a stage where it had to slow, if not halt, the firm's scientific ambitions, which, together with other unexpected circumstances, like the unexpected risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) as a side effect of Tysabri, caused the accumulation of large dept. Elan had to downsize. It did. It had to reform. It did. Still finding itself in a disagreeable territory, it had no option left but to relinquish most of its Alzheimer's disease programs. It did. It then thought to dispose of its drug delivery technology to get rid of the rest of its dept. It did not.

This surprising hesitation of Elan to execute its own plan has probably been the firm's belief that Tysabri's sales could do the financial miracle now that the firm has already filed to include the anti-JC Virus antibody status test in Tysabri's product labeling. The decrease, or elimination of the risk of PML, which has prevented the breakthrough drug from becoming a blockbuster drug, will, indeed, produce the miracle that would resurrect this firm.

Elan has marketed products that bring to its coffers over $1.1 billion. Around 60% of this revenues comes from Tysabri, which it partnered 50-50 with Biogen Idec (BIIB). The firm is still offering its services for other firms through its technologies, and will continue to cash in royalties on products that have been approved and marketed for other firms. The latest apparent blockbuster drug Ampyra for MS leg walking difficulties was developed for Acorda (ACOR) Therapeutics with Elan's technology; it had an excellent market penetration.

Tysabri is still the most effective MS drug on the market. Further diminishing the risk of developing PML would lead to sales that would generate between $2.5-$3.0 billion a year. The drug is approved in more than 45 countries; for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the U.S. and for relapsing-remitting MS in Europe. It is not unrealisted to expect that both the U.S. and EU would expand their approval of the drug to both indications. Elan's current revenue increase was driven by the growth of Tysabri and the launch of Ampyra.

To make the story short, Elan is insured by Tysabri. We believe Elan will either be resurrected by Tysabri, or be taken over because of Tysabri. Either way would be rewarding to the shareholders.