3SOF

TWGP(nasdaq) - Tower Group Inc.

Mkt Cap:           600.25M
Float:                  17.01M

Profile:  Tower Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of specialized property and casualty insurance products and services to small to mid-sized businesses and individuals principally in the New York City. It operates in three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Insurance Services. The Insurance segment offers commercial multiple-peril, monoline general liability, commercial umbrella, monoline property, workers' compensation, and commercial automobile policies. This segment's personal lines products consist of homeowners, dwelling, and other liability policies. The Reinsurance segment accepts or assumes reinsurance directly from issuing companies or indirectly from reinsurers that provide reinsurance coverage directly to these issuing companies. The Insurance Services segment produces premiums on behalf of its issuing companies, as well as provides claims administration and reinsurance intermediary services. Tower Group was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in New York City.

website: http://www.twrgrp.com/

Fundamentals and News

TWGP has been upgraded 3 times since February:
10-May-06   KeyBanc Capital Mkts - Buy
6-Apr-06    Friedman Billings - Outperform
28-Feb-06   Piper Jaffray - Outperform

The company released strong earnings on May 2nd:

QuoteTower Group, Inc. Reports a 75.1% Increase in the First Quarter 2006 Net Income
Tuesday May 2, 8:50 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060502/20060502005664.html?.v=1

1st quarter 2006 showed stellar growth and the company also gave a guidance for strong growth for the remainder of the year.

Technicals

TWGP has a very bullish chart.  The company is trading in a broadening wedge pattern and has recently bounced off the bottom channel with volume.  All moving averages are heading up aggressively to support the price.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/stockcharts/TWGP%2005-16-2006%20001.JPG)


We will buy TWGP in the morning on 5/17

Nice pick, rated number one in its industry sector by IBD.

G, can you elaborate a little on the TA of how a stock's price movement might jump channels in the way you describe, and how to look for that?

Quote from: tokyopua on May 17, 2006, 01:04:34 AM
Nice pick, rated number one in its industry sector by IBD.

G, can you elaborate a little on the TA of how a stock's price movement might jump channels in the way you describe, and how to look for that?

I'm glad you like the pick toky  ;)... on the channel jumping I'm not sure I understand the question.. it is just a theory for this play  ;)

fyi:
TWGP: KeyBnc/McDonald Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $34; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, May 10, 2006 08:17 ET
Issuer: Tower Group, Inc. (NasdaqNM: TWGP)
Analyst Firm:  KeyBanc Capital Markets/McDonald
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $34.00
Analyst Comments: The firm is positive on TWGP's robust earnings growth and its ability to leverage its relationship with newly formed CastlePoint.

&

TWGP: Short Interest UP 13.5% to 777.7K in Apr 2006
Tuesday , April 25, 2006 16:26 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Tower Group, Inc. (NasdaqNM: TWGP) INCREASED 13.5% to 777,702 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2006.

SYMBOL         MARCH           APRIL          CHANGE       %CHANGE      DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
TWGP             684,997         777,702         +92,705       +13.53%           3

Based on TWGP's 20-day average daily share volume of 262,133, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

can someone post the link for the ibd top 100 please. i can't seem to find it without a subscription

Quote from: eliteG on May 17, 2006, 01:30:37 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on May 17, 2006, 01:04:34 AM
Nice pick, rated number one in its industry sector by IBD.

G, can you elaborate a little on the TA of how a stock's price movement might jump channels in the way you describe, and how to look for that?

I'm glad you like the pick toky  ;)... on the channel jumping I'm not sure I understand the question.. it is just a theory for this play  ;)

Ah, OK, I read too much into it lol.  ;D

Quote from: hermanpu on May 17, 2006, 09:13:05 AM
can someone post the link for the ibd top 100 please. i can't seem to find it without a subscription

http://www.investors.com/tr10/trsuform1.aspx

#1 AOB
#2 GIGM

thanks a lot.

The opening few minutes should have given everyone a nice entry opportunity as it dipped down to the 9ema. Wouldn't be surprised to see it closing somewhere around $30, however, what happens now is up to Mr Market and not me ;)

Piper Jaffray Downgraded TWGP from  Outperform to Market Perform  >:(

Isn't this going to hit this stock for a while??

jorgegr

NEW YORK, May 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Piper Jaffray downgrade Tower Group (ticker: TWGP) from "outperform" to "market perform." The target price is set to $30.

Seems 2007 earnings estimates are only a possible maybe?

update TWGP:

TWGP was downgraded by Piper J.. seems this analyst is quite active in this stock.. almost like he's swing trading a position.  TWGP gave us what we hope is a nice entry today and we will place a traditional 7% stop to protect us in this bloody market.

------
Position: bought TWGP @ 28.26 on 05/17/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 26.28
Target: n/a
------

Quote from: eliteG on May 18, 2006, 12:02:05 AM
update TWGP:

TWGP was downgraded by Piper J.. seems this analyst is quite active in this stock.. almost like he's swing trading a position.  TWGP gave us what we hope is a nice entry today and we will place a traditional 7% stop to protect us in this bloody market.

------
Position: bought TWGP @ 28.26 on 05/17/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 26.28
Target: n/a
------

I messed up and got in at 29 because I didnt see the downgrade and had a limit order put in before market open.  Live and learn.  :-[

It's now official - every stock I own is in negative territory!   :-\

i'm pretty sure you're not alone. I don't remember the last time i saw green. I've been in GV since 2.40
HAH, ya i'm screwed. Gonna hold for 10 years until it comes back over 2.

update TWGP:

Highest close since we entered TWGP 3 days ago.  Nice bounce from the channel bottom although on weaker volume... yet still in the right direction.  Time to move the stop up to 7% away from this close price.

------
Position: bought TWGP @ 28.26 on 05/17/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 26.95
Target: n/a
------

update TWGP:

Nice little climb from TWGP last week.  We do have a possible bearish rising wedge forming on the stock chart which did make us consider selling but we have chosen to hold through and raise our stop to just above break-even.  Due to the sustained above average volume and the strong growth that TWGP is showing... it can run-away here.  Lets see what the market decides.  ;)

------
Position: bought TWGP @ 28.26 on 05/17/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 28.33
Target: n/a
------

Wow, what happened, that was a fast drop of over $1.00 ???

update TWGP:

Poor performance today from TWGP when the market actually went up... we considered selling here but instead we will move our stop aggressively higher and let the market decide.  The trendline(thick blue) and horizontal support(dashed blue) may create a powerful bounce here shortly.

------
Position: bought TWGP @ 28.26 on 05/17/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 28.85
Target: n/a
------

G,

Our daily email from June 5th says "unless it prints our stop @ 28.33" and this shows $28.85????????

Which one are we using?

basanlas

Quote from: basanlas on June 05, 2006, 08:26:08 AM
G,

Our daily email from June 5th says "unless it prints our stop @ 28.33" and this shows $28.85????????

Which one are we using?

basanlas

Sorry for the mixup basanlas.. the absolute final say is here in the portfolio board(the last update).. also it would be very rare to see a stop moved down(that would be against stop rules)