3SOF

Excellent chart, consolodation at higher levels.  OBV way up.  Looks ready for a serious move.  Opinions?

There is a buyout rumor & u can look at the volume last few days.

that Full STO is negatively diverging with price...be cautious

Actually the fast Stoch is crossing back over the slow and gaining strength.  Stoch showed the momo traders overbought this, but it price and stoch both retraced nicely yet the OBV remained very strong.  Bullish signs I think.

this is what I see...negative divergence

this doesnt make a long trade bad.. nothing in the markets is 100%... but just wanted to point it out to you  ;)

also...

I want to learn more about your comment.  I would think this situation happens a lot with stocks, especially small caps that get daytrader runs even when technically they are legitimately showing strength.  In your opinion, if a stock is continuously hitting higher highs and higher lows yet has a full stoch that peaks into overbought territory (like XOMA did), you consider this a higher probability of a top than continued momentum?   For example, a run happens, traders hop on, the full stoch flies over 80.  Doesn't it seem likely that this "divergence" or "head and shoulders" is likely - and a bit bogus technically?  How do you discriminate and objectively determine if the run is legit and not a top when this excess trading happens?  (hopefully you understood my question)

Quote from: bula on June 10, 2005, 12:22:46 PM
I want to learn more about your comment. I would think this situation happens a lot with stocks, especially small caps that get daytrader runs even when technically they are legitimately showing strength. In your opinion, if a stock is continuously hitting higher highs and higher lows yet has a full stoch that peaks into overbought territory (like XOMA did), you consider this a higher probability of a top than continued momentum? For example, a run happens, traders hop on, the full stoch flies over 80. Doesn't it seem likely that this "divergence" or "head and shoulders" is likely - and a bit bogus technically? How do you discriminate and objectively determine if the run is legit and not a top when this excess trading happens? (hopefully you understood my question)

first off you must understand that price and volume do not lie.
indicators are a derivative, so you must always be careful.

now to answer your questions:

Quoteif a stock is continuously hitting higher highs and higher lows yet has a full stoch that peaks into overbought territory (like XOMA did), you consider this a higher probability of a top than continued momentum?

absolutely not.  the divergence is the key.  the peaks and the valleys and how they match with price's highs and lows...many times a stock will stay in overbought territory.  that is because the stochastic is an oscillator and better used on a ranged stocks and not on trending positions.

QuoteFor example, a run happens, traders hop on, the full stoch flies over 80. Doesn't it seem likely that this "divergence" or "head and shoulders" is likely - and a bit bogus technically?

just bring up a bunch of charts and look for divergences... they dont always work but a high percentage do.  I dont use the fullSTO for my divergence trading but I noticed it and wanted to point it out

QuoteHow do you discriminate and objectively determine if the run is legit and not a top when this excess trading happens?

easily...volume increases...strong candles...support held

8)

Just hit another hod.  This one is on fire.  Next week may be huge if we can clear $2 again.

its got a heavy bid there...interesting but it needs some dramatic volume to get over that resistance and 200ema... wish you luck though.

Doesn't it worry you that XOMA has just completed a $60.0 million convertible senior note financing to qualified institutional buyers. The notes, which mature in 2012, are convertible into XOMA common shares at a price of approximately $1.87 per share. Not only can they be converted into 32 million shares but would the management have accept the conversion rate if they considered the company to be worth signifcant more?

IMHO the management seems to lack confidence in the company (COO sold 11K at 1.39 - 1.43 in May). If they don't believe in the company why should we?

Mike

You don't sound like a trader - more like an investor which can get you into real trouble in a small cap trading room like this.   Believe me, stocks posted here are for short term swings, not buy and holds.  Your concerns may be valid especially for any stock trading at under $2.  But in reality, for short term movements, follow the momentum not the iffy fundamentals.   

Following the chart (and only the chart) I was able to buy in at 1.60 Thursday and sell at the close at $1.95 - a $16,000 gain in about 30 hours.  I only sold Friday to protect cash, as most traders do.  Monday morning, if momo continues I buy back in.

Trade it, don't marry it.

Bula

I guess you are right. I would never buy a stock based only on the chart. On the other hand I would never by a stock on fundamentals if it wasn't supported by the chart.

That is why I like GIGM and BNT. I guess I am quite hard to please  ::)

Traders, Investor all are welcome here. I am myself part trader/ part investor. Ppl do have different styles. Also some ppl do have different time frames for a percentage of portfolio. Few pros that I know, keep even completely different accounts for the purpose. However, its true that most of us are here for qucik buck. Some picks are though suitable for only medium to long term holders. :)

And if you have following this board then most of the picks here are normally meant for SWING TRADING then DAY TRADING. Any style is ok as long as you are making money.

Nice play bula.  :o  Have to applaud that.

Just to say that XOMA came up on a strong market filter I made for tomorrow, where I dumped 99.8% of all 11k stocks. So XOMA is on my Watch list now ;)

regards

This is not the first time XOMA appears on my screen. I had all the motives to buy the stock, specially fundamental. But one thing kept me from buying it:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=856;image)

XOMA had a profound resistance area at the $1.90-$1.94 zone. Now the stock crossed over and I have to buy it. If a stock persistently appears on my screen which eliminates about 99% of the entire US stock market, it is because something's happening with that stock, something bullish.

Fundamentally we have this news to consider:

Xoma swings to a quarterly profit (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=&dateid=38481.7234754977-835175678)

When the news came out there wasn't much movement, it was on May 9:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=857;image)

The stock wasn't technically ready to advance. But now it is, and I don't mind buying higher but with fundamentals and technicals in tandem. And $2 or so is not so high price to pay for XOMA, look at this all history chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=858;image)

Everyday I will analyze XOMA after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.

Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 105% since May 2005 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php). We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks instead of criticizing those movements.

If you want to join our community and receive our free newsletter, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

David, you are buying at the Open ??

Yes, I'll probably buy at the open. I'll let you know with an answer to this post. Lets do this: if I say nothing it is because I'll buy at the open. If I say something, for example «the pre-market is too hot» or «there was this news» or something that might change my attitude toward the stock I'll answer this post. If I say nothing you know nothing has changed so I'm buying XOMA's open.

Quote from: stocky on June 12, 2005, 03:57:10 PM
Few pros that I know, keep even completely different accounts for the purpose. However, its true that most of us are here for qucik buck.

I am by no means a pro, but I do have separate accounts for trading and investing.  I have a regular taxable account for short-term trading, and a Roth IRA for longer-term investing.

Could't agree more, XOMA has been hovering around my watch list for a few a while.  For those that want confirmation befoore entry, taking out the 200ema at $2.04 will do nicely ;)
Mike

Nice to see that XOMA is getting a mention. 

Bought @ $2

In at pre as it spiked the 200ema.
Mike

Dave...

I bailed on IFLB... will keep tabs on it and look for an entry point later on... In the meantime got XOMA as it came down from $2.09... got in a $2. I like the drug industry and think it is one of the major forces in the economy. Thanks for your help and a great board....  Good Luck to all of us !

Have a Super Day !

Steve   ;D

Stock currently trading at 1.98.... We have a negative divergence w/ acc./distr. curve... Got in at 2.00...

 ;D

2.02

;D

Dear Randolf,

Now is 1.97-1.98.  I am not so technical.  Do you think it will close above 2.03, which is the near resistance?  Please kindly advise as I bought at 2.02 this morning   :'(

Thanks in advance.

Posted this Friday as most of you know and got out at Friday's close for a nice profit.  Would have been a great sell this morning instead, but a trader can't hold over the weekend except for very special circumstances.   Cash is king. 

XOMA is breaking down now, which I thought could happen after seeing each attempt get sold early this morning. I never bought in.  Not yet.  It's now red for the day and looks to possibly fall further.

I still love this stock to run, but not today imo.  It should get some sellers as some $2+ traders get nervous, but a light washout wouldn't hurt.  It's healthy volume.  If it hits the mid 1.8s, i'll look to get back in if volume dictates.  If it breaks 2.11 on volume, i'll look to get back in.  But in between or no follow through volume, i'll watch it only.

Good luck.   

eulogia, try not to watch the intraday moves, it's no use, you shouldn't change opinions during the session anyway.

I think XOMA came down to make a retest to the broken descending trendline (now support) and now is ready to run with the bulls again.

I'll update my analysis after the close, have a nice day !

I am in on this.

Filled a position at 1.94  Good Luck to us all.

I took a small position at $2.05 (3000 shares). Wish I got in at $2 like DAVE but at the
time it was bouncing off that $2 rather quickly.

In at 1.92-shoulda waited a couple more minutes

I am in on this

Oh well, I'm in @ $1.98... I thought we were going to go up. Whats happening here.  

It happened with XOMA what happens with most technical breakouts: a pullback. Old resistance line is now support and this healthy pullback will only make the following advance stronger.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 13, 2005, 07:08:59 PM
It happened with XOMA what happens with most technical breakouts: a pullback. Old resistance line is now support and this healthy pullback will only make the following advance stronger.

After hours quote is now 1.83.... Would you consider this retreat a normal consolidation move...??? Thank you and GOOD LUCK ALL...!!! 

Donot trust AH too much especially on low volume. Yahoo now shows AH XOMA at 1.92 :)

Thanks, stocky....!!! Now that I think about it, I believe DR said not to pay too much attention to pre-market or after-market movements.... THANKS AGAIN...!!!

Im amazed with the lack of basic trading knowledge among 1200 members here. Some of the guys are totaly clueless of whats going on, but thats ok, it makes the stock market what it is today, so some of the other guys can make the easy money.

XOMA was technically set to advance. If all of you noobs who bought it premarket just because it was another 3stocks call would maybe wait to get a clear buy signal this would probably move a lot better. If its moved few cents from your entry theres no need for panic just yet. Hope you all realize its at $2.00, while on 1st April 2005, which btw was just 50 trading days ago was at $1.00. Now if the stock is moving few cents theres no need to ask questions of whats going on, just set your stops to reasonable price and wait. In meantime I suggest you visit a bookstore and learn yourself some basics.

If institutions have sold 6.87 million shares [i.e. 43.7% reduction in position] and insiders are dumping the shares below 1.45 as near as May, 2005

Ref: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=XOMA

Then I don't understand what would drive the share price up for XOMA.

It looks like I've got a problem with XOMA. I was considering one resistance line, the oblique line, which XOMA crossed perfectly. But there was another resistance, an horizontal one, at around $1.94 and we're below that one now.

XOMA needs desperately to go up today. If it goes down and stays down by the close I'm forced to recognize the mistake and sell the stock. Cut the losses, let the profits run, as true today as it was 100 years ago ... such a simple strategy and yet so difficult to follow.

I still like the trend on this stock. XOMA was down small % the last 2 days. Next level of resistance is at $1.94. If it doesn't hit that by end of week, I'll probably sell before the close of Friday.

Thanks for the heads up.

David:
  That's why I held off. Did you also over look the "triple"(even stronger) resistance at 2.18. I've traded for a number of years, simialr methodology with larger cap stocks. Have you considered SLR or ADPT?
  Great forum. Who knows? Maybe we can bust through both resistance levels, but I agree...it's not promising.

Eric

XOMA got in at 1.90 and sold this morning at 1.91. Will take getting out today and look for  the next Bullish Stock. Thanks for your help David. Good Luck to all who stay in...
New to your site and new to trading. Learning a lot from you guys. When i make some money look for me becoming an Honorable Member.  8)

Here's my novice question if you do not mind please:
    Doesn't the upward trend of the cup say there is a good potential to continue trending up to finish the cup? That is - isn't it a good chance that resistance will be broken? And if this is so??? Then why would one wish to take a loss and move on? This is the part of trading which confuses me. Could someone please straighten me out. TIA!!!

I think that is why so many people lose money in the market... I would rather lose a small percentage take my investment back and reinvest in a better looking chart and maybe make 20% on my next investment which will make up for my very small loss....I am sure you have been investing longer than my self but with volatile stocks especially those below $4 a share the risk is higher so i think i would be taking a better risk by cutting my small loss now with a less than great looking chart and Financials and look for the next winner...

I am sure you use this site for a reason. If you look at the open and closed boards on this site i think you will see that the owners do not wait to lose 20% then ask why.... they take a small loss and look for the next Bull. I personally do not see this stock increasing much in the next few weeks..I actually see it maybe dropping close to it's 50MA or 200MA then it may be a good time to get back in, based on some of the charts i have seen recently posted 8)... Thank you for your response. Like I said before i am new to this and would like to hear from other investors....

Woops!!!! I think I'm seeing a ugly demo of what I was just taught. Thanks for your answer jonathanchill.

No more excuses!!!
XOMA hits the 10day trading at 1.76. Its definatly a buy now!


Sell at the 200day. Dont look back!

Looks like a 3 Black Crows resting on the 10ma (not too smart on this, but just remember studying on it yesterday  :-\ ) . I agree!! IF it follows through tomorrow (& it probably will), a definite buy.  I'm wondering (those of you who are savvy) am I reading the chart correctly?

XOMA is making a last minute comeback to the green, I'll hold the stock.

Glad you held Mr.David Randolph, AH up .05.

Insider trades.....baa humbug! Insignificant amounts.
We're breaking the 200day! Add that to your coffee.

you sure up after hours?  it shows -0.15 ah's in yahoo.  how accurate are ah quotes?

AH are certainly not accurate if they do not carry meaningful volume. I have seen that Yahoo AH quotes are more latest then MSN.

Not bullish on this stock due to resistance near 2.0. I sold my position yesterday for breakeven.

Bigcharts.com  Guess it really doesnt matter,  its always been accurate though.

Good luck!

After hours on XOMA was tiny volume and it bounced at a low of $1.65 and a high of $1.85 (just a few hundred shares though. Basically not much difference in price to the actual close $1.80.
Miike

Open buy order at 1.80 hit today for an initial position.  Placed another at 1.55 as technically a test back to that level is possible prior to resumption of the new uptrend.  Stop loss for entire position will be 1.40.  Will also add on continuation above 2.00.  Will partial out at 3.00 if and when.  That is my trading plan...any thoughts?  TIA

My chart:
http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-14/TOC11.png

tradinoncoffee  :) I applauded you for the chart.. It is a work of art  8)

I don't know about your XOMA play though.  As stated in the stock picking section, I believe it will take a while to bust 2, or volume.  But wish you luck on this play.

Lookin forward to more artwork  ;)

Quote from: kekec on June 14, 2005, 03:18:54 AM
Im amazed with the lack of basic trading knowledge among 1200 members here. Some of the guys are totaly clueless of whats going on, but thats ok, it makes the stock market what it is today, so some of the other guys can make the easy money.

XOMA was technically set to advance. If all of you noobs who bought it premarket just because it was another 3stocks call would maybe wait to get a clear buy signal this would probably move a lot better. If its moved few cents from your entry theres no need for panic just yet. Hope you all realize its at $2.00, while on 1st April 2005, which btw was just 50 trading days ago was at $1.00. Now if the stock is moving few cents theres no need to ask questions of whats going on, just set your stops to reasonable price and wait. In meantime I suggest you visit a bookstore and learn yourself some basics.

kekec,maybe some of the ppl that are new to trading come here to learn.dont criticize any "n00bs" you were new to this at one time yourself.Your time would be better spent in posting your "amazing buys " that are superior to all other traders on the planet.

I really don't feel like it, but I have to sell something today in order to buy my three stocks on fire for today (I don't leverage my account - don't need additional risk).

When I have to sell I always sell the losers in my portfolio. That's a hard thing to do, but after many years and many books read I know that's the right attitude globally, although it might be wrong in some case or another. Perhaps I'll be wrong in selling XOMA today, but I said it had to go up yesterday and it didn't. XOMA unfortunately failed to cross the $1.94-$2.00 resistance zone and perhaps now people will be giving up the stock for the short term.

I'm selling at the open to buy more short term promising stocks, I wish good luck to the holders of the XOMA.

Sold XOMA @$1.84

HOTDAM!  $1.89 now were rolling. 200d gonna bust you up!

David sold XOMA and I fully understand why, but I am giving it a little more room and time. It needs to take out resistance at the 200ema, right now it is in a continuation flag pattern which is bullish and I am looking for it to resolve out that flag through the resistance. I am trailing the 9ema with a tight stop in case it decides to fall out of the flag.
Mike

Hi Everyone...

My outlook is probably a little longer than some of you... I am also giving XOMA a little room. Have a Great Weekend All !

Steve

will be high this tuesday.

Hope your right.  I am down 10% at this point on the stock.  Will hang in a couple more days.

Xoma - 20 by end of 2006
06/17/05 12:07 pm

slow & steady climb will start early next year on positive annoucements with current trials. patient investors will be rewarded.
***************************************************************
The talking heads at CNBC said that Power Lunch would be at the BioConference starting Monday....the place Xoma and dozens of other biotechs will be presenting. They also mentioned that Jack Welch said the place to invest now for big returns is biotech.

Who knows with all the rumors posted here(mainly by daytraders) maybe we will see a press release from Xoma Monday, the first day of the conference, in an attempt to get some attention.

Wham Bam Thankyou Mam!   200day TKO

On to the next one.

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/news.asp?newsid=2810849&tick=XOMA

BERKELEY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 17, 2005--XOMA Ltd. (Nasdaq:XOMA - News) today announced that it has granted Merck & Co., Inc. (Merck) a non-exclusive, worldwide license for XOMA's antibody-related intellectual property. Under the agreement, Merck receives a license to use XOMA's bacterial cell expression intellectual property for phage display with potential use in the discovery of antibody products.

OK... you chart readers..... what does the week coming have in store. It doesn't make sense that we had such a great spike but it quickly fell away. What's up?

I think Tirebldr is right....  I saw a chart of the biotechs and it did look to my untrained eye (well a little trained  ;)  ) that the biotechs have bottomed out.

I hope not to step on anybodies toes here as  I am the new guy...  All of us have different time frames and reasons for purchasing a stock.  I have, what I think, is a longer time frame and therefore I have a little more leaway when the price drops. I really don't want a stock to shoot straight up... cause it very well comes straight back down. I am quite happy with a nice slow even advance. A little here a little there. Since I have a longer time frame, I have done my research, and I believe in the company  I am OK with a 15% - 20% drop. If it drops a lot I will research again and check that nothing important has changed with the company. If everythings cool then it must be something technical in the chart or normal volatility... I would be inclined to purchase some more. I think the patient ones here will be rewarded very nicely...

What can be better than a good company in a group that has bottomed out ?

Have a Great Weekend !

Steve

I believe daytraders jumped in at 2 thinking 2.30 was possible but it was too late in the day for it to shake out and regroup..so many exited on lower volume but i believe many are also holding through the weekend. Watch for much higher volume on monday from institutional buyers and Merck investors who check the weekend papers and who stepped out early friday -summer hours. Its going to be a very green week after so much consolidation.

I am holding until the 50 crosses the 200 in a few weeks that will be a big signal to more cautious investors and another big volume increase. I wont make predictions but there is a lot of room for XOMA to move up. May follow VPHM's action

>>I think Tirebldr is right....

Twernt my words friend. I had been watching Yahoo list all day long and simply pillaged a few of their posts thinking they were very pertinent.  I mustn't take credit for being to market-smart yet. Not till I make my first million that is ;)

Have a great weekend yu-uns!!
Art

Jumping in again monday for another 200day hurdle. I like this one, XOMA. Gonna keep it on the radar for a possible daily-daytrade. Thanks everybody!

Should start in green in pre market on Tuesday

Did everyone sell ?

Hey Stravis,

I'm still with it, a significant close under the 9 ema and I'm out, its bouncing support $1.80 - resistance $2.00 and soon one of them will give way. I think $1.80 support is the stronger.
Mike

David Randolph is a very good trader but after I bought XOMA, and XOMA fell, I simply continued to buy as it fell....now I'm in the Black and think XOMA has upside potential to $2.20 in the next week or so.  But even at $2.00 I'd have a nice little profit for a week's trouble...so my question is, why did D.R. sell XOMA at a loss when he liked the fundamentals?  Sometimes, you don't trade out of a lost position, you simply love it lower.  That worked well for me with CYOS when it fell from .03 to .007 (and then I rode it back to .06), and more recently with XIDE, buying as it fell from the low 5s to the high 4s and taking profit yesterday at $5.41...XIDE will be a great in-and-out stock for weeks or months now...nothing like a giant turnaround play....I don't see any reason not to buy even more XOMA if it falls below 1.80....Buy below there and sell above $2.00 is my short term strategy--although it might move quickly above $2.20 in which case I might be tempted to see if there's more to such a rally.  GL 2 1 & All

I'm stil in. Like it or not. :-\

For me it was more a matter of better horses to ride.  Moved my XOMA to GLGS, which is climbing much faster.

Lexicon Collaboration
by: faithinxoma (58/M/NY)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    06/21/05 07:58 am
Msg: 115332 of 115346

Lexicon Genetics and XOMA Establish Collaboration for Antibody Drug Development and Commercialization
Tuesday June 21, 7:30 am ET


THE WOODLANDS, Texas; BERKELEY, Calif., June 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lexicon Genetics Incorporated (Nasdaq: LEXG - News) and XOMA Ltd. (Nasdaq: XOMA - News) announced today the formation of a collaboration to jointly develop and commercialize antibody drugs for certain targets discovered by Lexicon. The collaboration is designed to combine Lexicon's target discovery and biotherapeutics capabilities with XOMA's antibody generation, process development and manufacturing expertise to accelerate the development and commercialization of novel therapeutic antibodies.
ADVERTISEMENT


During the three-year initial term, Lexicon will select for submission to the collaboration targets from among those discovered and analyzed in its Genome5000(TM) program. In this program, Lexicon is using its gene knockout technology to discover the physiological functions of 5,000 potential drug targets. XOMA will generate or engineer antibodies that modulate the collaboration's targets using phage display libraries and its proprietary Human Engineering(TM) technology. Lexicon and XOMA will jointly develop and commercialize novel antibodies directed at these targets and will share the responsibility and costs for research, preclinical, clinical and commercialization activities. Costs and profits will be allocated 65% to Lexicon and 35% to XOMA. XOMA will have principal responsibility for manufacturing antibodies for use in clinical trials and commercial sales.

Lexicon and XOMA have already selected an initial target for inclusion in the collaboration. This target is a secreted protein that, when knocked out, results in leanness, resistance to diet-induced obesity and enhanced insulin sensitivity. Antibodies to this target may have utility in the treatment of type II diabetes, obesity and metabolic diseases. Lexicon has agreed to submit at least two other targets for consideration by the collaboration during the initial term.

"XOMA's broad array of antibody technologies and its strong intellectual property position in this area provide the collaboration a range of options for the development of Lexicon's promising antibody targets," said Arthur T. Sands, M.D., Ph.D., president and chief executive officer of Lexicon. "In addition, XOMA's process development and manufacturing capabilities will enable us to move more rapidly through development and to the commercialization of our future therapeutic products."

"Lexicon's validated antibody targets create a strong foundation for developing new and unique therapeutics based on novel mechanisms of action," said John L. Castello, president, chairman and chief executive officer of XOMA. "Combining these targets with XOMA's antibody expertise should create a formula for successful drug development."

XOMA at 1.75 or 2.20 is an amazing buy...I'm expecting a return to the two year high $10 range by next summer and i will swing it along the way at various levels. I'm in at 1.38 and plan first sale at 3.00 This is the first time i have held any XOMA since 2002-3 when i did very well with it.

Quote from: biobuy on June 21, 2005, 10:28:55 AM
XOMA at 1.75 or 2.20 is an amazing buy...I'm expecting a return to the two year high $10 range by next summer and i will swing it along the way at various levels. I'm in at 1.38 and plan first sale at 3.00 This is the first time i have held any XOMA since 2002-3 when i did very well with it.

A good friend told me his dad, a few years ago, sent his sister through college on XOMA. This is the kind of long range tutorial a guy as myself can learn from.  Thanks for the input.

I also monitor the Yahoo lists, but I find a tremendous amount of hype on there as longs and shorts are trying to hype up everyone to their way of thinking. None of that on 3StocksOnFire. Just good, honest folks helping and learning. I appreciate you folks so much.

art

Quote from: biobuy on June 21, 2005, 10:28:55 AM
XOMA at 1.75 or 2.20 is an amazing buy...I'm expecting a return to the two year high $10 range by next summer and i will swing it along the way at various levels. I'm in at 1.38 and plan first sale at 3.00 This is the first time i have held any XOMA since 2002-3 when i did very well with it.

Could you explain, please, why you decided to get >> in at 1.38 ti $3 ??   TIA!!

Hang in there folks.... these shakes are just that shakes for shares we will bounce very well off this level. everytime the price and the 5 and 10 day average converged shot up after.

XOMA is fighting with the weekly 50 SMA.

I think a consolidation to the daily 50 or 38 SMA is likely.
That would be about 1,50 to 1,60.
At these levels there is also a horizontal support-line.
That will be my entrypoint.

Good luck to the longs.

News still to come by this Weekend , I guess.

seadog, your a genius!

XOMA LTD. STARTED AT BUY AT WELLS FARGO SECURITIES  6/23

They keep shaking and dropping it quickly although the ask gets chewed on for twenty straight minutes. I'm getting the feeling this will go on for one more week and in July it will finally run again. We have had a very good June and its best if it paces itself. below approximate monthly moves and general guessing on my part.

april 1.00 to 1.20...20%
may 1.20 to 1.40...20%
june 1.40 to 1.80...30%
july 1.80 to 2.34...30%
august 2.34 to 2.80..20%

I would look for it to bounce once the price nears the 20 day moving average. Its getting very close. Not sure if it can wait till July. We shall see.

Heer Heer!
Another pop to da top,
this is turning out to be clockwork!

It's hard to know which direction XOMA will take, short term. The $2 resistance level has been a hard barrier to the stock, and it seems distribution is taking place below that level. I hope it breaks the $2 resistance with strong volume, since so many of you guys hold the stock, I will probably be a buyer if that happens.

go XOMA

Genentech (DNA) has earnings tonight after the bell.  XOMA is a large royalty partner with DNA on Raptiva.  Slowly today you can see that XOMA is gaining momo on speculation that the Raptiva sales were strong.  If XOMA clears 1.8 on volume, it may be worth a swing trade for a couple of dimes if DNA shows raptiva sales were strong.

Good Luck,
Bula

DNA reported Raptiva sales were up 59%, much higher than expected.  Could pop XOMA a bit tomorrow.   PR is likely too if the company has any sense about them.  That is a large royalty for this company.

Bula

Any speculation on what XOMA could do medium/long-term?

I was wise enough :-\ to get some at 1.93. I know, I know :D.

Do you suppose there would be any chance it could be any good longer term if I were to hold it.  Or would I be hopeful just to get my bucks out if I can?   

TIA!!!

Is any one watching this?  The chart is great and the next leg is set-- very tight bollies.
The gap is completely back filled from that first move over 2.00 that david bought. This next time it will stick and and move up from there.

The chart is copying the move back in 2003 see the price has moved to the left of the 50 and created a mirrored valley but it still has a way to go. Maybe resisitance at $5-6.

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=charting&mode=basics&intraday=off&timeframe=3y&charttype=mountain&splits=off&earnings=off&movingaverage=50day&lowerstudy=rsi&comparison=off&index=&drilldown=off&symbol=XOMA&selected=XOMA

It is gaining strength and I believe has turned the corner. 2 of my 3 signals turned to buy last week, the 3rd (MCAD) looks to make the crossover (buy) this week. I am anxiously awaiting the climb. Good luck to All,

Steve

XOMA lookin like its time to buy again. I feel a run before earnings and the result of that Adams Harkness 25th Annual Summer Seminar in Boston, MA on Thursday, August 4.

good luck!

Glad to hear that. Been holding since the last buy (1.95).  :'(
Anybody want to contribute to my retirement fund. ;D

Hi Guys,

XOMA post a significant drop from opening price of 1.61 to last trade to 1.48.

After hours it drops further to 1.44.

pls see chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOMA&t=1d

Also observe there is a volume spike up after trading hour. It could be a last minute buy up.

Any comment folks

thks n rgds

MARCH 9, 2006

Xoma swings to profit, revenue jumps in 2005
Thursday March 9, 2:38 pm ET

Xoma Ltd. said Wednesday that it posted a profit in 2005 on higher revenue, which jumped more than 400 percent since last year mainly due to royalty payments.
The Berkeley biotechnology company (NASDAQ: XOMA - News) reported net income of $2.8 million, or 3 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $78.9 million, or 93 cents a share, in 2004.

ADVERTISEMENT


Revenue jumped 409 percent in 2005 to $18.7 million, compared with $3.7 million in 2004.

The increase was due to royalty revenue from the sale of Genentech Inc.'s (NYSE: DNA - News) Raptiva and revenue from arrangements with Chiron Corp. (NASDAQ: CHIR - News) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Also, the company benefited from upfront and milestone payments related to the out-licensing of Xoma's products and technologies.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at the end of 2005 were $43.5 million, up from $24.3 million at the end of 2004.

Published March 9, 2006 by the East Bay Business Times



XOMA broke the resistance @ 2.09... looking good hits a new 52 week high with above average volume of more than 10 times ;) :D ;D

--I believe XOMA will continue trending up next week ;)
--The breakout of Ascending Triangle confirms with more than 5 Mil volume yesterday session ;)

Moving Average Analysis
Type     Price     %         Slope
10 Day   1.89   117.7      UP 
21 Day   1.83   121.8      UP 
50 Day   1.72   129.3      UP 
200 Day 1.71   130.3      UP  




Second Opinion® Weekly - XOMA LTD (XOMA)
Exchange: NMS 
Close as of week ending
3/24/2006
         
Recommendation
Stock is a Buy.

Comment
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 1.80

short squeeze coming??

XOMA: Short Interest UP 2.7% to 2.5M in Mar 2006
Friday , March 24, 2006 16:23 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for XOMA LTD (NasdaqNM: XOMA) INCREASED 2.7% to 2,514,683 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.

SYMBOL     FEBRUARY           MARCH          CHANGE       %CHANGE       DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
XOMA           2,448,113       2,514,683         +66,570        +2.72%           5

Based on XOMA's 20-day average daily share volume of 560,940, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

XOMA : just wanted to add my comments. Chart is weekly for two year period you'll notice when  it broke it's muti-year downtrend in April 05 and went up to 2.0 and has been in sideways trading ever since till now and has broken it's sideway's trend with the MACD crossover of the centerline and positive convergence of MACD has been happening ever since Sep.04. This stock is getting ready to break out of a muti-year downtrend and is starting to form a new uptrend from the sideway trend that had formed after breaking the downtrend.
Goodluck trading to all :)

Strong volume for XOMA ;)

XOMA chart update:

update:
1)
XOMA initiated with "hold"
Monday, September 25, 2006 9:27:26 AM ET
BWS Financial
NEW YORK, September 25 (newratings.com) - Analysts at BWS Financial initiate coverage of XOMA Limited (XOM.FSE) with a "hold" rating. The target price is set to $3.28.
2)
Zacks 11 page XOMA analysis, please download
3)
Chart

AP
Schering-Plough, Xoma Deal Continues
Wednesday January 17, 10:18 am ET 
Schering-Plough Chooses to Continue Antibody Collaboration With Xoma


BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) -- Biopharmaceutical company Xoma Ltd. said Wednesday Schering-Plough Corp. exercised its right to continue its collaboration on developing antibody products.
Xoma said it received additional payments for each of the new programs and will receive research funding for each projects. The company did not release details on the additional programs or the amount paid upfront.


The companies started the collaboration May 23. Xoma is responsible for discovering antibodies selected by Schering-Plough. Additionally, Xoma is expected provide preclinical studies.

Shares of Xoma rose 14 cents, or 6 percent, to $2.49 on the Nasdaq in morning trading. Earlier in the session, shares traded as high as $2.55, topping a previous 52-week high of $2.50.

Shares of Schering-Plough fell 13 cents to $24.26 on the New York Stock Exchange, but earlier set a fresh year high of $25.17. The shares have traded between $17.88 and $25 over the past year.

"XOMA" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   ;)           
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.      ;)       

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$      ;D

XOMA going for the 3rd wave. ;)

3 year chart. ;)

Nice close for XOMA, something is cookin' ;)

new 52week high for XOMA ;)

Quote from: Terliso on April 13, 2007, 01:33:04 PM
XOMA going for the 3rd wave. ;)

3rd wave is in....  $4.50 should be a good reasonable target selling price for this pattern ;)

update:
XOMA Gives Pfizer Rights to Patented Bacterial Cell Expression Technology


XOMA Ltd. (XOMA) announced that it has licensed to Pfizer Inc. nonexclusive,
worldwide rights to XOMA's patented bacterial cell expression
(BCE) technology for phage display and other research, development
and manufacturing of antibody products. Under the terms of the
agreement, XOMA will receive an upfront, non-dilutive cash payment
of $30 million and milestone, royalty and other fees on future sales of
all products subject to this license, including products currently in latestage
clinical development.

Xoma rocket !  ;) Busted through the 200-day MA... ;D

Xoma Ltd. (XOMA:xoma ltd
Last: 3.07+0.30+10.83%

3.07, +0.30, +10.8%) shares soared... The biotech company said it has licensed its bacterial cell expression technology to Pfizer Inc. (PFE:Pfizer Inc
Last: 25.08+0.24+0.97%

25.08, +0.24, +1.0%) for use in developing antibody-based treatments.
Under the deal, Xoma will receive $30 million upfront and royalties on sales of any future products that utilize the technology, including those currently in late-stage development.
Pfizer shares were fractionally lower at $24.69.

INITIATES PHASE I CLINICAL STUDY: XOMA Ltd. (XOMA) announced the start of a second
Phase 1 clinical study of XOMA 052, a potent monoclonal antibody targeting Interleukin-1 beta,
in patients with Type 2 diabetes.

travis-

How many stocks do you own?

Do you ever sell anything?

I don't understand how you can follow all these stocks. 

Quote from: bjc on September 14, 2007, 02:09:06 PM
travis-

How many stocks do you own?

Do you ever sell anything?

I don't understand how you can follow all these stocks. 

I thought I seen this question on a thread...
I own at this time 30 stocks.
Yes, I do sell from time to time.
I'm not a day trader, very seldom I may try my hand at this.
I hold short term 1 to 3 months
Mid term 3 to 6 months
Long term over 6 months to years.
How I follow all these stocks , much hard work !

Back with the closing chart on XOMA today....
Looks like we may have a Pennant (continuation) Pattern here
May get the bounce off the 13-day MA....watch err...
JMHO of course.... ???

Holding this one for a week or two, long at 0.84... hopefully this pulls an 'AGEN', and hits 2+ tomorrow... but we'll see.

g

somewhat disappointing action friday, but news out this weekend and still holding...

g

uy now traget 2$


break 1.50$ than 2$

 ;D

Xoma now looks ready for an entra hee 90 cent is a big support here volum now comes down...

Buyes will get in monday we could se a hammer candle or a white one!

we got a bullish reversal here lok at the cadle and the 50 retrace...

bullish engulfing

;D

at example:

(http://stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/candlestick_bullish_reversal_patterns/bullrev-50corr-jnpr.png)

Downtrend Break volume comes in
read the news investor got in last week at 1.15$ so
lets go up!

MACD bullish bounce
RSI bullish up

Stochastic show as u negativ Differgence so should go up soon!!

and differgence said uptrend is still weee in trend

updated chart look...

Missed the pop north...I guess we got a bunch of readers..no posters  :(
Back above the 200-day ma

InPlay
5:02PM XOMA Limited announced that it has conducted an interim review of three-month data; XOMA 052 was shown to be well-tolerated (XOMA) 6.78 +0.11 : Co announced that it has conducted an interim review of three-month data from a Phase 2a clinical trial of XOMA 052 in a small group of 74 patients with Type 2 diabetes focused on evaluating safety where XOMA 052 was shown to be well-tolerated, the primary goal of the study. This Phase 2a trial was designed as an exploratory trial focused on overall safety and kinetics and was not designed to show statistically significant differences in measures of biological activity. XOMA 052 is being studied in an ongoing 420 patient, six month Phase 2b dose-ranging clinical trial where results are expected by the end of this quarter and the primary goal of the study is reduction in levels of hemoglobin A1c. The primary goal of the Phase 2a trial was to gain additional XOMA 052 safety information in Type 2 diabetes patients on a background of stable metformin monotherapy. In this study, XOMA 052 was well tolerated with no significant differences in adverse events, lab abnormalities and vital signs between XOMA 052 and placebo and no drug-related adverse events. At the time of this three month interim review, evidence of biological activity was observed, including a reduction in C-reactive protein levels and a modest reduction in hemoglobin A1c levels. XOMA 052 is designed to inhibit the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 beta that is believed to be a primary trigger of pathologic inflammation in Type 2 diabetes. XOMA is jointly developing XOMA 052 in collaboration with Servier.

____________________________________________________________

Day's Range: 6.76 - 7.20
52wk Range: 2.24 - 12.60
Volume: 9,177,280
Avg Vol (3m): 3,296,330
Market Cap: 147.79M
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -2.88
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
25.00%above 13-day EMA
77.95%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 97 

XOMA  XOMA Presents XOMA 3AB Data at National Biodefense Meeting...  by GlobeNewswire  Jan 11 2011 8:30AM

BERKELEY, Calif., Jan 11, 2011 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- XOMA Ltd. (XOMA), a leader in the discovery and development of therapeutic antibodies, today announced several presentations that highlight advances in the company's biodefense program and particularly in the development of XOMA 3AB, a three antibody formulation that binds to distinct regions of botulinum toxin type A. Among these will be an invited oral presentation describing the successful lyophilization of XOMA 3AB and studies demonstrating the stability of this formulation over time stored at a wide range of temperatures. The presentations will be made at the Fifth Annual Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) Stakeholders Workshop and BARDA Industry Day, January 10 to 12, 2011 in Washington, DC.

XOMA 3AB has been shown in preclinical studies to neutralize botulinum toxin type A, which is among the most deadly bioterrorism threats. XOMA 3AB is being developed through funding provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health. To date, XOMA has entered into more than $100 million in U.S. government contracts for this program.

"The PHEMCE meeting is a leading venue for providing scientists and government leaders with up-to-date information on the excellent progress in our anti-botulinum toxin program. Our presentations at this conference clearly emphasize our expertise and technical leadership position in this strategically important space," said Steve B. Engle, XOMA Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The presentations are:


  --  Development of a High Temperature Stable Lyophilized Formulation for
      XOMA 3AB, a BoNT/A Triple Antibody Product

  --  Recombinant Monoclonal Antibody Co-mixture Based Monovalent Antitoxin
      Development for Treatment of Type A, B and E Botulism

  --  Nonclinical Safety Evaluation of XOMA 3AB, A Novel Triple Monoclonal
      Antibody Drug Product Targeting Botulinum Toxin Type A, in
      Sprague-Dawley Rats





These projects have been funded in whole or in part with funds from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services under Contract No. HHSN266200600008C, Contract No. HHSN272200800028C, and Contract No. HHSN266200600011C.

About the Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise

PHEMCE is a coordinated interagency effort that is responsible for defining and prioritizing requirements for public health emergency medical countermeasures; focusing research, development, and procurement activities on the identified requirements; and establishing deployment and use strategies for medical countermeasures in the strategic national stockpile. BARDA is the U.S. government's Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.

About XOMA

XOMA discovers, develops and manufactures novel antibody therapeutics for its own proprietary pipeline as well as through license and collaborative agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and under its contracts with the U.S. government. The company's proprietary product pipeline includes:


  --  XOMA 052, a potent anti-IL-1 beta antibody entering Phase 3 clinical
      development in Behcet's uveitis, for which it has been designated an
      orphan drug, and in Phase 2 clinical development for Type 2 diabetes
      with cardiovascular biomarkers, Type 1 diabetes, and with potential for
      the treatment of a wide range of inflammatory conditions. XOMA is
      developing XOMA 052 in collaboration with Les Laboratoires Servier.

  --  XOMA 3AB, an antibody candidate in preclinical development to neutralize
      the botulinum toxin, among the most deadly potential bioterror threats,
      under development through funding provided by the National Institute of
      Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

  --  A preclinical pipeline with candidates in development for autoimmune,
      cardio-metabolic, inflammatory, ophthalmic and oncologic diseases.





The company has a premier antibody discovery and development platform that incorporates an unmatched collection of antibody phage display libraries and proprietary Human Engineering(TM), affinity maturation, Bacterial Cell Expression (BCE) and manufacturing technologies. BCE is a key breakthrough biotechnology for the discovery and manufacturing of antibodies and other proteins. As a result, 60 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies have signed BCE licenses, and several licensed product candidates are in clinical development.

XOMA has a fully integrated product development infrastructure, extending from pre-clinical science to approval at its Berkeley, California location. For more information, please visit www.xoma.com .

The XOMA Ltd. logo is available at www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=5960

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained herein concerning product development or that otherwise relate to future periods are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements are based on assumptions that may not prove accurate. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated due to certain risks inherent in the biotechnology industry and for companies engaged in the development of new products in a regulated market. Among other things, results of early-stage clinical trials may not be supported by later findings, larger trials and/or other actions required for regulatory approval may not be economically feasible, and results of clinical trials may in any event not be consistent with preclinical or interim results.

These and other risks, including the generally unstable nature of current economic and financial market conditions; the results of discovery research and preclinical testing; the timing or results of pending and future clinical trials (including the design and progress of clinical trials; safety and efficacy of the products being tested; action, inaction or delay by the FDA, European or other regulators or their advisory bodies; and analysis or interpretation by, or submission to, these entities or others of scientific data); changes in the status of existing collaborative and licensing relationships; the ability of collaborators, licensees and other third parties to meet their obligations; XOMA's ability to meet the demands of the United States government agency with which it has entered into its government contracts; competition; market demands for products; scale-up and marketing capabilities; availability of additional licensing or collaboration opportunities; international operations; share price volatility; XOMA's financing needs and opportunities; uncertainties regarding the status of biotechnology patents; uncertainties as to the costs of protecting intellectual property; and risks associated with XOMA's status as a Bermuda company, are described in more detail in XOMA's most recent filing on Form 10-K and in other SEC filings. Consider such risks carefully when considering XOMA's prospects.

This news release was distributed by GlobeNewswire, www.globenewswire.com

SOURCE: XOMA Ltd.


CONTACT: XOMA Ltd.
Company and Investor Contact:
Carol DeGuzman
510-204-7270
[email protected]
Canale Communications
Media Contact:
Carolyn Hawley
619-849-5375
[email protected]

Is XOMA a Turnaround Stock?
January 12, 2011 

XOMA Limited (XOMA) has gone through many problems in the past, causing its stock to fall down, down, down. But could XOMA be at a turnaround.

They got $35 million upfront from a French pharmaceutical company. That is 28% of the company's market cap, which is $124 million. Plus, there is up to $470 million in milestone payments. That is about 3.8 times the current value of the stock.

The stock recently has been falling after a sharp rise. I am betting that XOMA will jump back up. The drop seems unwarranted.

Investors seemed to be disappointed on the news from its current study on 052 XOMA. However, the study was designed to evaluate safety, which it did, and "was not designed to show statistically significant differences in measures of biological activity." The study "showed the potential treatment, labeled Xoma 052, was well tolerated" and "the drug showed a clean safety profile and a promising C-reactive protein reduction."
This should be good news, right?

Coming to conclusions about something the study was not designed to test is irrational thinking. Basically, there must be a control, something a study was designed to test so it can be compared, on every study. With the absence of a control, the data is meaningless.

The odds are very high that XOMA will rise either today or tomorrow. The stock has an MFI and RSI of 60. A MFI of 60 is its one-month low, as shown below. So odds are high it will reverse higher.

A real move would be on fundamental analysis noted at the top half of the article.

Day's Range: 5.72 - 5.83
52wk Range: 2.24 - 12.60
Volume: 1,022,428
Avg Vol (3m): 3,750,910
Market Cap: 126.21M
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -2.88
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
2.58%above 13-day EMA
36.79%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 96 

Xoma and Elan: A Tale of Two Mismanaged Biotech Companies, Part 2

ELAN

Although investors' fury at Elan's management is understandable and legitimate, the management's mistakes should not blind them to fairly assessing this firm, which has contributed to science and drug development more than most other drug developers, small and large. There is reason to believe that this contribution to science is the main reason behind the firm's financial debacle. Nevertheless, Elan's science, scientists, their discovered disease pathways, and the technologies they created have advanced the understanding of neurological diseases and made possible the management of diseases yet to find treatments. While drug companies design, discover and develop drugs that target validated pathways of diseases, Elan, itself, discovered the pathways of diseases for the drugs it designed and developed. In neuropathology, Elan's research and findings have enriched the medical libraries with breakthrough knowledge about the pathophysiology of diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and multiple sclerosis.

The firm developed several products for Alzheimer's disease based on its understanding of the disease pathways. In addition to its small molecule inhibitors of beta secretase and gamma secretase, the firm developed small molecule drugs that target neurotrophic receptors that could protect vulnerable people's neurons. It identified unusual forms of alpha-synuclein, a major component of Lewy bodies, which is a signature characteristic in the brain tissue of Parkinson's disease patients. This finding has led to therapeutic targets that are the focus of Elan's new drug discovery efforts.

It was Elan's scientists who discovered the role of the selective adhesion molecule, alpha 4 integrin protein, in the etiology of multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune diseases, including Crohn's disease. Alpha 4 integrin has a role in the movement of immune cells from the bloodstream into the tissues in response to inflammation. Elan's breakthrough selective adhesion molecule inhibitor Tysabri® (natalizumab) is approved for the treatment multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease. Yet, Elan's scientists continue to investigate new small molecule inhibitors that block alpha 4 integrin and may selectively block immune cell traficking. The firm's scientists are also studying signaling molecules that may be involved in the brain inflammation characteristic of secondary progressive MS. The firm aims at disrupting the pathway of chronic inflammation-neurodegeneration that causes permanent disability in advanced MS.

In addition to illuminating the molecular pathological pathways, selecting therapeutic targets, and designing evidence-based drugs, Elan created state-of-the-art technologies that enhance the safety and efficacy of products and, even better, make possible the development of products that lacked the physicochemical requirements of therapeutics. Elan's two important technologies, NanoCrystal technology and drug delivery technology have contributed to improving the actions, effects and side effects of several drugs.

That said, the question remains: does the resentment of the management's mistakes prevent us from trying to determine a fair value for this firm at the current stage?

Final word: Again, we prefer to be objective and do our homework, including taking into consideration the harm that resulted from the management's miscalculations. This harm, which has been financial, has reached a stage where it had to slow, if not halt, the firm's scientific ambitions, which, together with other unexpected circumstances, like the unexpected risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) as a side effect of Tysabri, caused the accumulation of large dept. Elan had to downsize. It did. It had to reform. It did. Still finding itself in a disagreeable territory, it had no option left but to relinquish most of its Alzheimer's disease programs. It did. It then thought to dispose of its drug delivery technology to get rid of the rest of its dept. It did not.

This surprising hesitation of Elan to execute its own plan has probably been the firm's belief that Tysabri's sales could do the financial miracle now that the firm has already filed to include the anti-JC Virus antibody status test in Tysabri's product labeling. The decrease, or elimination of the risk of PML, which has prevented the breakthrough drug from becoming a blockbuster drug, will, indeed, produce the miracle that would resurrect this firm.

Elan has marketed products that bring to its coffers over $1.1 billion. Around 60% of this revenues comes from Tysabri, which it partnered 50-50 with Biogen Idec (BIIB). The firm is still offering its services for other firms through its technologies, and will continue to cash in royalties on products that have been approved and marketed for other firms. The latest apparent blockbuster drug Ampyra for MS leg walking difficulties was developed for Acorda (ACOR) Therapeutics with Elan's technology; it had an excellent market penetration.

Tysabri is still the most effective MS drug on the market. Further diminishing the risk of developing PML would lead to sales that would generate between $2.5-$3.0 billion a year. The drug is approved in more than 45 countries; for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the U.S. and for relapsing-remitting MS in Europe. It is not unrealisted to expect that both the U.S. and EU would expand their approval of the drug to both indications. Elan's current revenue increase was driven by the growth of Tysabri and the launch of Ampyra.

To make the story short, Elan is insured by Tysabri. We believe Elan will either be resurrected by Tysabri, or be taken over because of Tysabri. Either way would be rewarding to the shareholders.