3SOF

BUSINESS SUMMARY  
Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. provides semiconductors of analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded microprocessor integrated circuits worldwide. Its product portfolio comprises switching, transceiver, wireless, PC connectivity, gateways, communications controller, storage, and power management solutions that serve various applications used in business enterprise, consumer electronics, and emerging markets. The company's storage products are used for hard disk drive and tape drive electronics, and storage interconnect technology. Its switching solutions are used for the enterprise networking, carrier access, and small office/home office (SOHO)/residential networking markets that enable voice, video, and data traffic carried through the network. The company's physical layer transceiver solutions are used for demanding networking applications in the enterprise and storage networking markets. Its wireless products include Libertas family of chipsets, a solution for the SOHO/residential, enterprise networking, and consumer electronics markets. Marvell Technology's VoIP products are used for ultra-low power Voice over WLAN handsets with other members of our WLAN solutions targeted at VoIP residential gateways. The company's Orion products are used to enable media vault platforms that allow users to access multimedia and data content throughout the home. Its PC connectivity products consist of the Yukon Gigabit Ethernet controllers for volume deployment of Gigabit PC connections. Its integrated gateway router devices are used for business, SOHO, and residential gateway solutions. The company's communications controller products are used in a various applications, including routers, switches, digital subscriber line access multiplexers, access concentrators, wireless base stations, VoIP gateways, and storage area networks. Marvell Technology Group was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.


Looks like there is some more downside with this stock.
I'm looking to sell some shares tomorrow morning ;)

MRVL2

MRVL3

MRVL4

Ok analysis is finished... I'm looking for 20% to 30% gain on this one.

wish me luck!! ;)

Excellent.  A falling IBD darling.  These often fall hard when the institutions bail.  I lost track of this one over the past year but think I will join you.  Thanks for pointing it out.  Good luck to the both of us.  >:D

Shorted MRVL @ $48.77

Holding 5 stocks now
PPHM - long
PHM  - short
BRCD - short
COGN - short
MRVL - short

terliso is right on again here, his short is up like nearly 6%.  For the sake of asking what position do you take on this one.  Again almost pulled the buy trigger but did not.  Thought about the aug 50 mrvl put for like 5.20.  So 1 contract would have cost $520.  that is up  like 25% with today's action.  I mean you have been right a lot lately and it makes sense to make more money in options no?  Well just a thought.

I shorted this guy today near 47.30.

Goodluck guys!! ;)

Quote from: catrader on June 08, 2006, 11:52:31 AM
I mean you have been right a lot lately and it makes sense to make more money in options no?  Well just a thought.

I still consider myself a newbie in stock market it will be my 3 years anniversary trading the market this coming november & never tried options before, but I know about options I've been reading & researching a lot & who knows maybe someday we will be trading options together with Leaira ;) :D ;D ;D  ;D

Everything is in place ...MRVL is getting weaker every session ;)
though the price came down from 73.67 to 45.44 that was already over -38% blood bath.

another -20-25% beating that would be fine....;)

im in mrvl too ;) excellent picks btw terliso I been playing alot of your picks as well.

Always patience pays off....always........... ;) :D ;D

I'll take profit just above $35.00...  :D ;D

Quote from: Terliso on June 12, 2006, 04:27:50 PM
Everything is in place ...MRVL is getting weaker every session ;)
though the price came down from 73.67 to 45.44 that was already over -38% blood bath.

another -20-25% beating that would be fine....;)

Look at that MRVL is down 15% on massive volume.....yihaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ;) :D

Ohhh My My..... -16.50% blood is all over on MRVL...

Where are my fellow shorters? Nullzero & Catrader, don't tell me you guys got stop out ;)

Chart 06-06-06
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5928.0

Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 06:58:19 PM
I'm looking for 20% to 30% gain on this one.

wish me luck!! ;)

Gaining over 13% so far

nope, unfortunately did not have free funds to trade this as tied into positions which hope to come back, which might never do so.  Well guess that happens when you are not such good trader.  Terlisso guess is right on again here.  That Intc news guess sure helped in this mrvl short.  good trading!

MRVL is now flirting under $40  :D

Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 06:58:19 PM
Ok analysis is finished... I'm looking for 20% to 30% gain on this one.

wish me luck!! ;)

Shorted $48.77
Current price $38.95

I got stopped out Terliso :(. Congrats Terliso on another good short :). I got stopped out at 50.35 a couple weeks ago I had about a 6% stop loss I should of had a loose stop :(.

Quote from: nullzero on July 14, 2006, 01:25:28 AM
I got stopped out Terliso :(

Sorry to hear that nullzero :(

Quote from: nullzero on July 14, 2006, 01:25:28 AM
Congrats Terliso on another good short :)

Thanks ;)



Another down day for MRVL
Shorted $48.77
Current price $37.71

Great pick Terliso

Been reading and watching but never entered...  Curious if you have been shorting more as it drops?  Would you consider an entry short here as it broke the year low?  (PS I shorted NTRI today at 63, risky play but i hope to get $2-4 to the down side before earnings are out, thoughts?)

Do you prefer shorts that are already low, say RSI <30 as the long momentum players buy when RSI >70??

cheers Joe

Quote from: Terliso on July 14, 2006, 12:15:22 AM
Shorted $48.77
Current price $38.95

Alister,

Nice job on MRVL and on the overall market since May.  Applause.

Quote from: joet on July 14, 2006, 03:18:27 PM
Do you prefer shorts that are already low, say RSI <30 as the long momentum players buy when RSI >70??

joe,

Focus more on the chart, in terms of pattern breaks and re-tests of broken support, and use the indicators to confirm.  For instance, MACD failing below zero on a re-test of broken support.

Examples of a few good places to short, using MRVL: (see arrows)

1.  The break of the H&S Top near $61, in early March

2.  The Bear Flag rally back to the broken neckline, in April (I forgot the arrow there)

3. The breakdown of that Bear Flag

4. The break of the H&S-like Top in the mid-53.00s

5. The re-test of that break, that gapped above the neckline, but failed at the declining 50DMA

6. THE PERFECT SHORT (if there is such a thing) was June 19, right below the broken neckline in the mid-53.00, and right at the declining 50DMA (dotted green line) again.

It takes some discipline to follow the stock and look for those opportunities, but they're good risk:reward trades if you pick your spot, and you're trading breaks of support, and re-tests of broken support, so the trade is favored to win. 

"Former support should be resistance." It was in a few of those examples.

If we jump in and short "in the middle of No Man's Land," we've not only given away a lot of profit, it's very difficult to figure out a logical stop that isn't too much percentage risk.

Shorting MRVL here is "shorting into the hole," meaning that a lot of profit already has been made on the downside, and our chances of success are diminished. 

Traders like Alister, who have a big gain on the short side, begin to think about taking profits, and on a rally, new buyers come in, as well.   We could become victims of a vicious short squeeze in the stock.

While MRVL looks lousy and easily could continue straight down here, I tend to leave these alone.  I've missed the trade. 

Just my opinion, of course.  Good luck!

Quote from: joet on July 14, 2006, 03:18:27 PM
Great pick Terliso

Thanks Joe ;)

Quote from: joet on July 14, 2006, 03:18:27 PM
Do you prefer shorts that are already low, say RSI <30 as the long momentum players buy when RSI >70??

I don't pay attention much to that indicator it gives me premature buying & selling point 8)

I'm using MACD Histogram & MACD Lines & combining it with moving averages 5,9,50,200 (SMA) & 200(EMA), force index & weekly chart ;)

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 14, 2006, 04:06:31 PM
Nice job on MRVL and on the overall market since May.  Applause.

I appreciate that melf-elf ;)
& a perfect advice right there for Joe ;) Applause.

Quote from: Terliso on June 27, 2006, 01:34:16 PM
I'll take profit just above $35.00...  :D ;D

Quote from: Terliso on June 06, 2006, 06:58:19 PM
I'm looking for 20% to 30% gain on this one.

Shorted $48.77
Current Price $36.66
Gaining: 24.83% & i'll take it tomorrow morning ;) :D ;D

The trendline comes in for tomorrow just below $35.00 ;)

covered @ 36.25 ;)

The $34.00 target MADE today.  Great pick, Alister, and nice trade.  Applause.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 21, 2006, 04:02:16 PM
The $34.00 target MADE today.  Great pick, Alister, and nice trade.  Applause.

And, the stock made a short-term bottom the very next session, July 24, at 16.74.

Technically, this is an interesting chart (well, they all are interesting, really  :D)

1. After the Symmetrical Triangle (almost an Ascending Triangle) was established, MRVL, gapped down below it, and looked headed a lot lower.  13.18 was IN PLAY.

2. Instead,  that gap down was THE LOW, so far.

3. After that, MRVL put in a "W"-Bottom (red channel and green channel), then broke out above the middle of it (18.24), which is the "buy pivot."  The print of 18.25 was the actual "buy signal."

That put a target of 20.28 IN PLAY, and it CANCELLED the downside target of 13.18, because a BULLISH pattern broke out.

4. MRVL rallied to 20.16, missing the 20.28 target by twelve cents.  It's still IN PLAY.

5. On the recent selloff, look where MRVL has found support, TWICE!  Right at the bottom of the Symmtrical Triangle (Trendline #1 and #3) that "should have been support" in the first place, but failed.

This DOUBLE validation of that trendline here, on November 9-10, and again on November 17, now is indicating:

"Okay, I screwed up breaking that trendline in early October on the gap down, but now I'm telling you TWICE that I've gone back down from almost making the 20.28 target IN PLAY, and that I've 'gotten it right' this time.  That trendline  it really is support now."

6. If MRVL is lying to us, and if that trendline isn't support, that's an easy, low-risk stop out.

At this interesting juncture in MRVL's chart, on Friday night, Cramer gave it the BOOYAH!!  >:D
(see post on the BOOYAH in Melf's Workshop, if interested). MRVL boosted guidance on Thursday.

Hmmm-mmm...(we need a face on the toolbar, licking its chops)  :D

Technically, MRVL is giving us signs of bullishness, and now some bullish news on the fundamental front.

Hmmm-mmmm...

The top of this pattern comes in on Monday at 20.833. A breakout above it this week would put a target of roughly 25.30 IN PLAY, which is in the June gap area.

MRVL almost assuredly will gap higher at Monday's open on the BOOYAH.  It closed on Friday at 9.05.  The high was 19.50, so the open likely will be above 19.50.  If it isn't much above it, say 19.60, I'll buy the open. 

I might even loosen up the wallet for 19.70.  :D

Stop below the DOUBLE validation of trendline support (and, it better be support!).  >:(

Bought MRVL at 19.48.  Stop: 18.10.  Risk: a loss of 7%.

MRVL currently is BID 19.43...ASK 19.44

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 19, 2006, 03:09:05 PM
The top of this pattern comes in on Monday at 20.833. A breakout above it this week would put a target of roughly 25.30 IN PLAY, which is in the June gap area.

Sold 10% MRVL yesterday near the close, at 20.82.  Gain: 6.9%
Sold 10% MRVL at today's open, at 21.23, near the previous 21.25 high. Gain: 9.0%

Hoilding 80% long.  Sorry that I couldn't post it.  The 3SOF was down.

Quote
4. MRVL rallied to 20.16, missing the 20.28 target by twelve cents.  It's still IN PLAY.

Since the 20.28 target MADE yesterday, I'm raising the stop to 18.29, below the low of the last trendline validation.  Risk is reduced to a loss of 6.1%.

Quote
This DOUBLE validation of that trendline here, on November 9-10, and again on November 17, now is indicating:

"Okay, I screwed up breaking that trendline in early October on the gap down, but now I'm telling you TWICE that I've gone back down from almost making the 20.28 target IN PLAY, and that I've 'gotten it right' this time.  That trendline  it really is support now."

The improved technicals helped MRVL to bounce on the BOOYAH.  It's pulled back a bit today from the upper trendline, which looks fine.

A little Symmetrical Triangle breakout today, and a new high for the move out of the larger breakout on November 20.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 21, 2006, 02:43:04 PM]The top of this pattern comes in on Monday at 20.833.  A breakout above it this week would put a target of roughly 25.30 IN PLAY, which is in the June gap area.

Sold 10% MRVL yesterday near the close, at 20.82.  Gain: 6.9%
Sold 10% MRVL at today's open, at 21.23, near the previous 21.25 high. Gain: 9.0%

Hoilding 80% long.  Sorry that I couldn't post it.  The 3SOF was down.

The chart looks fine.  It's actually 25.33 that is IN PLAY.  Still holding 80% long.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 21, 2006, 02:43:04 PM
Sold 10% MRVL yesterday near the close, at 20.82.  Gain: 6.9%
Sold 10% MRVL at today's open, at 21.23, near the previous 21.25 high. Gain: 9.0%

Hoilding 80% long.

Sold my remaining 80% of MRVL at 19.97.  Gain: 2.5%.  Gain on the trade: 3.6%.

I've held MRVL for almost one month.  Since breaking out on the chart in my last post, MRVL has been trading back below the breakout, and "could be" forming a H&S Top here.

Mainly, I don't like all of the candles on the daily chart that are back below the breakout, so I sold it.

would you try to analyse this one for going long just now????

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070619/1479421.html?.v=1

Mikes Market blog:
I still think MRVL options and stock are a thing to keep an eye on.  In the company's last SEC filing, they stated that they have until June 26th (tomorrow), to file their late financial reports.  No news is out at the moment, and this may keep a bid in the options (which started midday Friday, shortly after being mentioned on MM), as there may be some uncertainty on whether the company can maintain its listing on the Nasdaq...

SEC deadline 28.6.07

 ;D
updated chart look...