3SOF

Profile: Bodisen Biotech, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of pesticides and compound organic fertilizers in China. The company manufactures approximately 60 packaged products in 4 product categories: organic compound fertilizer, organic liquid fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides, and agricultural raw materials. Its products address grains, vegetables, and fruit crops. Bodisen Biotech sells its products to wholesalers. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Yang Ling, China.
Website: http://www.bodisen.com

Trading Idea:
BBC is a growth company, operating on the world's biggest market for its products: China. The company looks solid, with interesting numbers to show and great prospects.... But the reason we found BBC was primarily its technical outlook, which is very strong right now, and just plotted an interesting buying signal and trend reversal.

BBC has been trading inside a large descending channel during all 2006, yesterday and after some consolidation, BBC had a breakout with strong volume, opening the way to a large upside potential. For short term, BBC has an ascending trend line near $13, creating an attractive risk / potential ratio for a short term trade. The natural projection of the broken channel is something like $20.50, so we'll set a conservative target of $18 for this trade and a stop near $12. BBC can still retest the breakout level near 13.50, which would be normal, but we'll buy it today.

Trading Plan:
Buy BBC today at or near the open, setting a stop @ $12.00

Regards,

I am heavily invested in BBC and have been for a bit.  I had a position prior to a price crash in May (based on false statements on a website and a news article) and tripled it when the stock hit single digits.  I presented it to G-Force at $9 and change, and elite said steer clear at the time.  Glad I ignore the technicians when there is an amazing fundamental story.  I started tracking this stock, and then buying, a long time ago based on a post by Michael (long before he was an administrator on this site).  This stock will make serious money over time.  Management has been straight, there is 100% top and bottom line growth, and great expansion plans.  BBC just reaffirmed that its guidance has legs by signing an order that exceeds one year's previous gross revenues.  A great post from the yahoo message boards (yes, it seems an oxymoron, but is not) from marvelmeister2002 (thanks whoever you are) is cut and pasted below.  Dave
_________________
Bodisen Biotech (BBC) represents a rare combination of growth and value...with a likely "kicker" in the form of tremendous IBD-driven momentum buying moving into the stock.

BBC markets organic and liquid fertilizers as well as pesticides.China is the largest fertilizer market in the world, using about 35% of the world's fertilizer, or roughly double what the U.S. consumes. The total fertilizer market in China is about a $17 billion (U.S.) opportunity, and about a $1 billion (U.S.) opportunity for organic fertilizer, which is BBC's area of emphasis.

International companies are also targeting the Chinese market, but mostly with chemical fertilizers. BBC's products are scientifically proven to create between 15% to 35% higher crop yields while also improving soil conditions. Additionally, farmers who use BBC's products can sell their products as "certified organic green foods", which are typically sold at 50%-200% price premiums at the retail level.

The Chinese government has placed great emphasis on the development of its agriculture industry by providing agriculture subsidies, eliminating tax burdens and supporting the development of an open market-driven agricultural product industry. And there is a major push in China toward environmentally conscious agricultural development. The government is mandating support of "green" products because a history of intensive farming using chemical fertilizers has destroyed soil quality, depleted soil nutrients, decreased crop yields, and created large scale water pollution.

With this favorable market backdrop, channels including 150 wholesale distributors and 500 nationwide distribution centers, and strong brand recognition with local presence among loyal target customers, BBC is extremely well positioned for continued robust revenue and earnings growth.

Now let's look at BBC's numbers. The company reported a 75% increase in net income for 2005 to $8.8 million/ $.56 EPS, from $5.0 million/ $.33 EPS in 2004. Revenues surged to $31 million, up 91% versus the prior year.

This tremendous growth has been accelerating into 2006. For the Q1 (March) just released, EPS earned $.20 (excluding a $.05 non-cash one-time warrant charge) against $.05 last year, while revenues exploded 124% from $4.7 to $10.5 million. CEO Karen Wang commented: "We're very pleased with our continued momentum and growth moving into 2006. During the quarter, we continued to see strong demand for our products, even as we raised prices twice. Although historically our Q1 is the slowest quarter in a year, we achieved a robust gross margin of 40% and a net margin of exceeding 30% excluding the non-cash warrants issuance charge. Q2 is on track to achieve strong year-over-year revenue and earnings growth."

BBC management expects to "at least double" 2005 sales volume this year while targeting net margins of 30%. This translates into revenues for 2006 in the $62 million range with EPS knocking at the $1 plateau.

BBC's 2007 guidance is equally jaw dropping, as the company expects to again double sales year-over-year, while targeting roughly 30% net margins.

BBC has already announced a $45M contract for FY07, which is greater than their TTM revenues of $37M and strongly suggests that they will meet their lofty 2007 goals. If so, the company will be earning somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 EPS for 2007. How many other companies have you seen with 100% year-over-year revenue and EPS growth two years running that trade at a forward PE of 6.5?

BBC also has a stellar balance sheet with $26 million in cash and no long term debt- as a result, BBC has indicated that it will be able to carry out its 2007 expansion without diluting current shareholders.

BBC will be added to the Russell 2000 index this Friday, which should result in institutional buying from funds that track the Russell index. Additional institutional accumulation will further diminish the stock's already small float (which is in the 10.7 million share range). This could set the stage nicely for the real catalyst for BBC: inclusion in the IBD top 100 stock rankings.

IBD ranks stocks based on their EPS score and relative strength. EPS is the most important category. It is unclear how IBD weights the two measurements, but a 99 EPS score will always beat a 99 RS. BBC currently has a 99 EPS score and should maintain that score for the foreseeable future, thanks to very impressive year-over-year earnings growth.
BBC's RS score now stands at 83. BBC will need a 99 RS score to achieve the all-important IBD #1 rank. IBD also has a floor price for inclusion in IBD: $15. If/when BBC crosses $15, its RS score will likely be in the mid 90s. At that point, BBC would probably not be the #1 IBD stock. However, it would almost certainly be in the top 10 and I believe that simply reaching the top 10 will be enough to push the stock higher and therefore improve its RS score such that it will eventually achieve a 99 EPS and 99 RS score (for an example of how much momentum buying even a top 5 IBD berth can generate for low float stocks, take a look at IFO's performance while it held the #3 spot on the IBD list from May 15 through June 9 of this year). At that point, BBC would be the new IBD #1 stock.

An IBD history lesson illustrates how explosive this ranking can be. Look at past #1s such as TZOO, TASR, ERS, ESMC, LWAY, NGS, HRT, FORD, CUTR etc. Each of those stocks went parabolic when they hit IBD #1. ERS is the latest example. ERS is a simple aluminum distribution company that I recommended as a short at $44. The IBD momo crowd ran it from $15 to $60 in 6 weeks just because of its IBD #1 ranking. To put it mildly, BBC is a much faster growing company with vastly better prospects then ERS. In addition, I believe that BBC's EPS score is much more secure then ERS's, which is why it should remain the IBD #1 stock for a much longer time than ERS managed to. Think TZOO for an example of an IBD momo stock that was able to keep its 99 EPS score quarter after quarter.


Catalysts:

1) Inclusion in the Russell 2000 index, along with accompanying institutional buying.

2) Increased investor awareness of this undiscovered, undervalued company.

3) Inclusion in the top 10 of the IBD 100 list, and ultimately a probable #1 IBD berth.

Thanks for sharing bigdogs99999, we are also pretty bullish about BBC now ;)

Update:
BBC had a nice start during the morning setting a new short term high, but during the afternoon it followed the general market slow down, closing negative.  Some good news about one of its holdings went out, nothing much relevant:
China Natural Gas Expects to Report Record Earnings for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2006 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060706/20060706005285.html?.v=1)

Trading Plan:
Hold BBC with a stop @ $12

Regards,

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060710/20060710005192.html?.v=1

News has BBC up 3.4% in pre-market trade :)

Update:
Some good News:
Bodisen Expects Better 2Q Sales Growth (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060710/bodisen_outlook.html?.v=1)

BBC moved pretty well on the pre market and early session, but the overall pessimism on the broad market forced BBC down. The technical outlook changed with the last 2 sessions, BBC is now trading below the breakout level, but we'll keep the same plan since the ema50 and ema200 are slightly above our stop level and we expect them to act as support.

Trading Plan:
Hold BBC with a stop @ $12

Regards,

I decided to stop out early on this one at 12.6, as I was looking at previous gap support of 12.73, and when the price went below 12.7 on the 5 minute chart today the price drop accelerated.  hope it bounces, but in this market I am erring on the side of caution.

Update:
So far, our stop looks to be in the right spot, BBC had a positive reaction right on the ema-50 and just made what seems to be a very bullish candlestick. We expect BBC to run up above the descending resistance line and continue it's ride to new short term highs, for now we'll let the stop at the same level.

Trading Plan:
Hold BBC with a stop @ $12

Regards,

Some news out about one of BBC holdings:
China Natural Gas Adds Two New Natural Gas Filling Stations (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060712/20060712005120.html?.v=1)

Update:
BBC chart is not looking so great with the last few sessions, not being able to breakout again the resistance level, but taking into consideration the dimension of the general market sell off, BBC is not behaving so bad. BBC is still trading above the ema50 and ema200, and above Tuesday lows, which is a good sign for now, and so far we'll hold it and keep the same stop level.

Trading Plan:
Hold BBC with a stop @ $12

Regards,

I keep telling you guys -- sometimes you have to put your short term trendlines in the garbage can and grab hold of a superstar stock.  That is exactly what this one is!   ;D


Second Half of 2006 and 2007 Growth Outlook Positive With Strong Product Demand and Company's Expansion Into New Markets


NEW YORK, NY--(MARKET WIRE)--Aug 14, 2006 -- Bodisen Biotech, Inc. (AMEX:BBC - News) (AIM: BODI) (website: www.bodisen.com) the first China-based environmentally friendly bio fertilizer company listed on a US stock exchange, and dually listed in London, today announced that it achieved record revenue and earnings growth from the production and sale of organic fertilizer and pesticide products during the second quarter ended June 30, 2006.
The following are some of the financial highlights for the second quarter from the company's Form 10-Q filed with the SEC:

SECOND QUARTER FINANCIAL & OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

--  Revenues grew 95% to $16.4 million from $8.4 million in the same
    period of 2005.
--  Gross profit increased to $6.4 million from $3.3 million in the same
    period last year.
--  Net Income grew 118% to $5.9 million from $2.7 million in the same
    period of 2005.
--  Net income margin of approximately 36% due to strong sales in high
    margin liquid fertilizers.
--  Fully diluted EPS increased to $0.32 from $0.17 in the same period
    last year.
ADVERTISEMENT


Mr. Bo Chen, President of Bodisen, commented: "We experienced another record quarter of revenues and earnings growth during the second quarter of 2006. Our results for the second quarter and for the first half of 2006 reflect strong demand for our environmentally friendly, high yield organic fertilizer solutions and the growing awareness of the Bodisen brand among China's farmers. Our earnings per share of $0.32 again exceeded analyst estimates of $0.25 for the quarter. Our third quarter has historically been the strongest quarter and we look forward to a great year of record growth in 2006."

REVENUES

Bodisen achieved record revenues of $16,382,189 for the second quarter of 2006, up 95% from the prior year period when the company reported revenues of $8,416,805. The growth in revenue was primarily attributable to the increase in the customer base as the company continued to aggressively market their products and the growing awareness in the agricultural industry in the markets in which they do business of the efficacy of their products.

GROSS PROFIT

Bodisen achieved a gross profit of $6,411,936 for the second quarter of 2006, up 97% from the prior year period gross profit of $3,255,664. Gross margin increased to 39.1% in the second quarter of 2006 from 38.7% in the same year ago period. The increase in gross margin was primarily attributable to the increase in the prices of main products.

NET INCOME

Bodisen achieved net income of $5,879,678 or fully diluted EPS of $0.32 in the second quarter of 2006 compared to net income of $2,692,014 or fully diluted EPS of $0.17 in the same quarter last year. The increase was attributed to a successful targeted marketing campaign to further saturate its existing markets and to also further penetrate new markets and regions throughout China.

POSITIVE OUTLOOK

Mr. Bo Chen, Bodisen's President, commented: "The market opportunity in China for environmentally friendly fertilizer products remains largely untapped and Bodisen is well-positioned to benefit from China's rising standards of living and end user consumers' demand for natural and organically grown foods and produce. With solid visibility, we are on track to reach our projections for 2006 and 2007. As Chinese farmers continue to shift from chemical fertilizers to our environmentally friendly, higher crop yield bio compound fertilizers, Bodisen will continue to reap the benefits as a leading premium organic fertilizer brand throughout China."

Quote from: bigdogs99999 on August 14, 2006, 08:56:56 AM
I keep telling you guys -- sometimes you have to put your short term trendlines in the garbage can and grab hold of a superstar stock.  That is exactly what this one is!   ;D

bigdogs,

since you didn't say that we also had to put our intermediate-term trendlines in the garbage can, i noticed that bbc bounced yesterday off the blue one from the january high.  :D

strange reaction to the good earnings, though.  opened at 13.60, tanked 15% to 11.50 at the blue trendline, then rallied to close at 12.49, but it was down slightly on the day on fairly heavy volume for this stock.  looks like they basically sold the good news, and bbc did have an 80% parabolic rally off the 8.11 June 13 low, so okay.

Quote
Second Half of 2006 and 2007 Growth Outlook Positive With Strong Product Demand and Company's Expansion Into New Markets

but, the outlook at the release of earnings in may also was excellent, and the market's reaction back then was to tank the stock 46% from a high of 15.20 at the failed trendline and 50 DMA re-test on May 10, to that 8.11 June 13 low. 

there's "sell the good news," but that reaction to may earnings that was more like a second crash in the stock than it was just "selling the good news."

:o   

after seeing the wicked reaction to may earnings, i wonder if they're going to take bbc down again, and fill those june gaps.  i dunno.

near term resistance is 13.75, printed on july 27, july 31, and again yesterday morning.  a print of 13.76 would take that out to the upside, which should be a plus for the stock, technically.  i didn't put a short-term trendline there.  it was too far for me to reach to the garbage can to get one. 

:D  >:D

applause for your post on the earnings.  bbc is an interesting stock.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 15, 2006, 03:40:35 AM
there's "sell the good news," but that reaction to may earnings that was more like a second crash in the stock than it was just "selling the good news."

The reaction to August earnings hasn't been any better.  :P 

Quote
after seeing the wicked reaction to may earnings, i wonder if they're going to take bbc down again, and fill those June gaps. i dunno.

The June gaps are filled now.

Near-term technicals:

1. September 27 - gap down below the channel (blue)

2. October 4 - failed re-test of the broken channel, at 9.74

3. October 10 - closed at 8.67, below the May 1 Crash low.

4. "Possible" little W-bottom here if it can hold, and knock out 9.74, but it's a skimpy pattern.

Technically, I'm not surprised to see this stock back at this level, but given what seemed to be very good fundamentals, I am surprised.

Due to the extremely thin volume, I wouldn't consider it for a trade, but I think it's worth considering for an investment if/when the chart shapes up.

Anybody still following news/fundamentals on BBC?  Has the outlook worsened? 

Quote

Quote

BBC reversal on Q3 guidance:

NEW YORK, Oct. 18, 2006 (PRIMEZONE) -- Bodisen Biotech, Inc. (AMEX:BBC)
(LSE:BODI) (website: www.bodisen.com), the first China-based environmentally
friendly bio-fertilizer company listed on a U.S. stock exchange, and dually
listed in London, today announced that the company expects to report strong
year-over-year revenue and net income growth for the quarter ended September 30,
2006. The company expects to report its third quarter financial results by
November 15, 2006. 
"We continue to make progress on all of our strategic initiatives, which
include the build out of additional factories in China's northwest agricultural
province, and we look forward to discussing our final third quarter results and
progress by November 15, 2006," said Bo Chen, president of Bodisen Biotech. 
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2005, the company recorded $10.5
million in revenues and net income of $2.9 million, or $0.19 fully diluted EPS.

Thanks for the update, Aussie.  Applause.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 11, 2006, 06:38:14 AM
Due to the extremely thin volume, I wouldn't consider it for a trade, but I think it's worth considering for an investment if/when the chart shapes up.

I gave strong consideration to buying BBC in the mid-8.00s after my post last week, with a stop below 8.11, especially seeing those little Bullish Inverted Hammers and Bullish Hammers show up on the chart, but the thin volume put me off it. 

MACD ticked above the signal line on October 17, prior to yesterday's Bullish Semi-Island Reversal (the island is circled in green) back into the channel, on very heavy volume for this stock.

Quote
2. October 4 - failed re-test of the broken channel, at 9.74

The key 9.74, where BBC got rejected on the channel re-test, got taken out.  That looks very nice.  Wasn't watching it, though, again due to the low average daily volume.  :P

It will be interesting to see how BBC responds to earnings this go round.  The last two responses were awful.

Good luck if you have it, Aussie!

I still have it...  Missed the 3SOF sell mail and figured I might as well sit it out after that... :-[ :-[ :-[not so smart.

So, only 40% more to go :P :P

Good luck,
Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on October 19, 2006, 10:29:04 AM
I still have it...  Missed the 3SOF sell mail and figured I might as well sit it out after that... :-[ :-[ :-[not so smart.

So, only 40% more to go :P :P

Good luck,
Amarens

Amarens,

Applause for your honesty, and for sharing that.  We've all done a "not so smart."

What's in your favor with this one is the fundamentals appear to great, and even if that changes a little, they've still got earnings and what would seem to be great prospects.

The problem is that the technicals have been trumping the fundamentals since the Crash.  There's an overhang of supply from those who didn't get out, and they've sold the reflex rallies back into the teens.

The stock getting smashed on the last two excellent earnings reports is evidence of that.  When players buy a stock at, say, $14.00 on great fundamentals, then see the stock go into the $8s on THREE occasions, the great fundamentals cease to matter.  The Fear Factor begins to dominate when players are sitting on that kind of paper loss.

Yesterday, BBC gave back 43% of the prior day's white candle, which was good news about Q3 guidance.  There's certainly no reason for that kind of give back when the fundamentals are so strong. 

It was more technical selling of good news, right at the down-trending 50DMA near 10.80.  The high, prior to the channel break, was 10.82, so that was DOUBLE resistance there.

9.74 is next support.  That's where the re-test of the broken channel failed, and it was short-term bullish for that number to get taken out to the upside on Q3 guidance.  It would be additionally bullish if 9.74 becomes support here. 

If it isn't support, BBC likely is in for a re-test of the bottom of the channel, which comes in today at about 9.33.   Also bullish if it can hold that this time, and if BBC can then knock out 10.80-10.82 DOUBLE resistance.

Good luck, Amarens!  ;)

Forgot to post the chart.  :D

I've been think about a bullish scenario.  See next post.

Bullish Scenario:

1. The Gap Up Island Reversal, back into the Channel, looks bullish.

2. We have a flat top in place for an Ascending Triangle, at 10.82 - 10.80

3. Now go down and re-test the bottom of the channel that was broken, and establish that, "Yes, it's support this time," while at the same time, establishing a "higher low" for the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle.

4. Go up and knock out 10.82- 10.80, putting Target: 13.20 IN PLAY.

Math:

High: 10.80 (I always use the more conservative of the two highs

Low: 8.40

10.80 - 8.40 = 2.40 points, added to 10.80 = Target: 13.20

Then continue to act bullish...bullish...bullish  ;D

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 20, 2006, 05:28:42 AM
If it isn't support, BBC likely is in for a re-test of the bottom of the channel, which comes in today at about 9.33.    Also bullish if it can hold that this time, and if BBC can then knock out 10.80-10.82 DOUBLE resistance.

Bought BBC at 9.35, on the channel re-test.  The low so far this morning is 9.33 exactly. Hopefully, that will hold

Hey Melf, nice analysis as always. Coincidentally I had similar entry plan and in fact have taken a position today around $9.50. The prior move got capped at the 50sma and this pullback on lower volume is nice and as you say will confirm the new resistance / support change.
The fundamental soundness of BBC is great, and sooner or later that will get rewarded in the stock price. If it doesn't then I'll stop out as per my trade plan.

Quote from: AussieTrader on October 20, 2006, 10:13:51 AM
Coincidentally I had similar entry plan and in fact have taken a position today around $9.50.

Aussie,

Coincidentally ?   ???  ???

Did you notice that our posts both hit at 10:13:51AM exactly, and that we both were posting that we bought it?

doo doo doo doo...doo doo doo doo....  :D  >:D

Good luck, buddy!

LOL, damn it now I have to average down as you got a better entry than me :D

That is kinda spooky hey. Where is Mulder and Scully when you need them, well Scully for sure, Mulder can stay at home, I think Scully can handle it.

Well after that collective back slapping lets hope BBC does what it should.

Good Trading

I've decided to throw my shoe into the ring on this one too. Hopefully third time lucky on earnings momentum. It is very oversold so hopefully we can catch a break. Thanks for your reviews Melf and Aussie, great stuff, cheers.

uc.

Quote from: AussieTrader on October 20, 2006, 10:35:33 AM
Well after that collective back slapping lets hope BBC does what it should.

Aussie,

So far it is. ;) 

It's held the bottom of the channel, at 9.33, twice more, at 11:30 and 11:31 AM.  I'd really like to see that hold on this selloff.  If it doesn't, we might have to fill that gap.  :P

I'll hold unless we take out 8.11.

Quote from: usedcasting on October 20, 2006, 10:43:30 AM
I've decided to throw my shoe into the ring on this one too.

uc,

Great!  Good luck!

Quote
Hopefully third time lucky on earnings momentum.

Amen! 

I'll have to grow some fingernails so I have something to bite on release of earnings.  :D

I'm with you guys, bought some BBC @ 9.36$.

Ok, we have had our full retreat (9.33), now lets get it on!

Currently Bid 9.46  :)

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on October 20, 2006, 01:55:30 PM
Ok, we have had our full retreat (9.33), now lets get it on!

uc,

The 9.33 held.  ;)   

While we can't expect exactitude from TA, it's mighty nice when we get it, or get close to it.

About this channel:

We can connect any two data points and call that a trendline, but we haven't any idea whether or not it's valid unless we get confirmation of that from the market. 

Let's look at the bottom of our channel, connected by Blue #2 and Blue #4.

1. It broke on a Gap Down on September 29.  The gap below it suggested that it was valid, but we still had only two data points, so we weren't quite sure.

2. On the rally back to the channel the data points were:

9.7596 on October 4 (white candle).  High on the day: 9.74 , two cents below it.

9.7236 on October 5 (black candle). High on the day: 9.71 , a penny below it.

BBC subsequently sold off to the 8.40 low, which was when I posted that I like this stock fundamentally, but that I didn't like the technicals.  That failure right below the channel was a vailidation of these two things:

"Yes, the break of the channel on the gap down was meaningful, technically, and No, the stock isn't getting back through it on a re-test!"  UGH...

Aussie then posted the rally back into the channel.  Hmm-mm....interesting.  Does that mean that the channel break was meaningless?  No.  We already know that the channel was validated on the two failures, October 4 and October 5, so it was meaningful alright.

So, the channel breakdown probably means:

A. It was downside Bear Trap fakeout, and the stock would continue higher (Nope)

B. That the 9.74 failure high would get re-tested, and hold (Nope)

C. That the bottom of the channel would get re-tested

Answer: Yep...C ...re-test of the bottom of the channel, which came in on Friday at 9.32712.  Low on the day: 9.33.

That's a THIRD validation, that the bottom of the channel is meaningful.  October 4 and 5 were the first two validations, on the two failures to regain it.

"If" the bottom of the channel holds, and BBC rallies, we'll have:

Bull Move #1 - Bullish Island Reversal

Bull Move #2 - Regaining the broken channel, and an Ascending Triangle set-up at 10.82 - 10.80.

Bull Move #3 - A successful re-test of the bottom of the broken channel, and validation of the fact that it is support this time.

As a trader, I normally would sell a meaningful break of this channel because that represents some technical damage, and we'll likely test the gap (8.66-8.77) and who knows what else on the downside.

But as I said in earlier posts, BBC is pretty illiquid (although volume has picked up qute a bit lately), so I'm not going to trade it, but rather, hold unless 8.11 gets broken, because of the good fundamentals. (Exception: I'd sell if, for example, the stock gapped down big on bad news and on heavy volume...UGH...I'd sell). 

Out of character for me to give this much consideration to fundamentals, but I like this stock's chances.  I like the improvement in the technicals, and I'm willing to take the risk, even if this channel fails to hold. 

Data points next week for the bottom of the channel:

October 23 - 9.2901
October 24 - 9.2504
October 25 - 9.2144
October 26 - 9.1783
October 27 - 9.1423

A violation by a penny or three is fine.  We can't expect exactitude.  But, we'd want to see it reverse higher off a violation, and not CLOSE below the channel.

Quote from: Se7en on October 20, 2006, 01:01:55 PM
I'm with you guys, bought some BBC @ 9.36$.

Good luck to all of us, Se7en!  ;)

We need volume and I think we just may get it. Hopefully!
Up 6% :)

uc.

BBC came back down today ...  :(




(http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/9020/bbczb0.jpg)

Quote from: Se7en on October 24, 2006, 04:42:06 PM
BBC came back down today ... :(

uc and Se7en,

We've got a lot of ANGRY Bulls, who:

1. Didn't get out before the Crash

2. Didn't sell the broken neckline re-test on TRIPLE earnings, in May

3. Didn't sell DOUBLE earnings in August

We  can't blame them.  They're bagholders, and many of them have big paper losses.  And, they're using any rally to sell.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 21, 2006, 07:07:32 AM
October 23 - 9.2901
October 24 - 9.2504
October 25 - 9.2144
October 26 - 9.1783
October 27 - 9.1423

We violated channel support, intraday...

...but, it held above it, at the close.

I'm out of my element as a trader, playing this "longer-term...based on fundamentals," yet based the improved technicals.  I very likely will get spanked for doing this, so please be aware of that.

I'm going to have a difficult time NOT pressing the SELL buzzer, if we CLOSE below the channel.

I committed to this "offbeat" trade at the outset, however, and I will stay, as long as 8.11 doesn't get broken.

Stupid of me, I admit, to "like" a stock, which is completely against my nature, as a trader.

I plain "like" this one.

We need a "STOOPID Face" on the toolbar.  :D  ;D

Looks like BBC is basing here around 9.10-9.20, preparing itself for the next leg up?!

BBC stays in a tight range, earnings are at 15 Nov!

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/061102/107984.html


They also filed a Form 8-K yesterday but not much news on that!
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061102/bbc8-k.html




(http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/617/bbcgj0.png)

Looks like we're getting some play in our BBC.  The volume already is equal to 100-day average volume, so the run rate is at least two times ADV, even if interest subsides a bit. 

It's nice to see that buyers are willing to step in, ahead of earnings.

A close above the 50MA would be sweet! :)
Do you have a target in mind Melf Elf or are you planning to ride it through earnings?

Quote from: Se7en on November 06, 2006, 12:02:33 PM
A close above the 50MA would be sweet! :)

Se7en,

Yes, that would be nice.  We haven't had one of those in three months.

Quote
Do you have a target in mind Melf Elf

I don't have a pattern target, but I'm thinking at least 11.50, then 13-ish.

My play in BBC is a rare exception for me, because I'm playing it primarily on the fundamentals, but also on the improved technicals, per my post when I bought it.

Back in May, when BBC was at 11.18, one of our 3SOF members named yukiii gave a very nice presentation on BBC's fundamentals, which I liked very much.  I didn't like the chart at all, though. 

I kept an eye on it and decided to go ahead and "take a flyer" on the pullback after Aussie's nice white candle on October 18, when the technicals looked to have improved a bit.

Quote
or are you planning to ride it through earnings?

Yes, I've grown some fingernails, so I have something to chew on through earnings.  :D 

I'll hold.  My stop is below 8.11.  I would sell at the market price if BBC is called to gap down below that at earnings (or at any other time, for that matter).

2X average 100 day volume is 518,000 shares.  Today's volume, a little ahead of the close, is 545,000 shares, and BBC is up about 12%, and holding most of the gains.  That's a nice day for BBC.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 06, 2006, 03:55:42 PM
2X average 100 day volume is 518,000 shares.  Today's volume, a little ahead of the close, is 545,000 shares, and BBC is up about 12%, and holding most of the gains.  That's a nice day for BBC.

Yeah, with a nice close!  :)




(http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/1183/bbcsd0.png)

Yes nice day. I sold 1/3rd of my position at the 50sma area just as an insurance against it proving too tough a resistance point. A close above 50sma on decent volume should provide continuation momentum. Melf I hope this 'unusual play' for you is working out OK ;)

Quote from: Se7en on November 06, 2006, 04:51:44 PM
Yeah, with a nice close!  :)

Se7en,

It sure was, and I especially liked seeing some volume come in.  Last Thursday and Friday were only 91,000 and 100,000 share days.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 06, 2006, 10:31:45 PM
Yes nice day. I sold 1/3rd of my position at the 50sma area just as an insurance against it proving too tough a resistance point. A close above 50sma on decent volume should provide continuation momentum.

Aussie,

I like those "insurance" plays.  :D  ;)

Quote
Melf I hope this 'unusual play' for you is working out OK ;)

Thanks, Aussie.  It's going better than I expected.  Knock on wood, and all of that.  :D

We got minor violations of the bottom of our channel, on October 25, 26, and 27, so I figured that we might be in for a gap fill of 8.77-8.95.  All three of those candles, however, were little Bullish Inverted Hammers, and BBC hung onto the bottom of the channel, then rallied yesterday. 

I like that.

I view it as more bullish if the 8.77-8.95 gap doesn't get filled, indicated that traders are shut out from having the stock that cheaply again.

My only expectation out of earnings is that they not trash BBC for THIRD time.  :D

After the May Day crash...

May was an earnings TRIPLE.  BBC got trashed from 15.20 to 8.11.

August was an earnings DOUBLE.  BBC got trashed from 14.65 to the recent 8.40.

As we've all discussed,  that crashing and trashing has nothing to do with the fundamentals, but has everything to do with the fact that we're dealing with three groups of angry Bulls who are trapped at higher prices. 

Even if BBC reports an earnings QUADRUPLE next week, we still have to work off that overhang of supply as we go into end-of-year tax loss selling.

What "could' millitate against a lot of selling would be if BBC rallies, then stabilizes going into the end of the year.   Bulls who got in at higher prices might then be encouraged to hang onto their stock, going into 2007.

We'll see.  I'm not expecting much for the remainder of the year, so anything more on the upside would be a nice surprise.

Good luck, everybody!

Good day for BBC! :)




(http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/7135/bbc1ah2.png)

Pre earnings run shaping up by the looks. A nice reaction off the 50sma BBC has taken back all it lost in that 4 day end Sept sell off. Technically I'd like to see it break and hold $10.82 and then I wouldn't be surprised to see it in mid $12's before Wednesday. The real interesting thing though will be what happens after earnings. History would suggest sell off, chart (to me at least) suggests recovery.

Looks good Aussie,

I like the new look ;)
Super Speculator with a little flare of red!

How about another applauds to your already huge amount ;)

Keep listening, And keep gettin paid!

-fous

After yesterday's "Gap To Crap" Reversal in GIGM on the reporting of earnings, I thought I'd better post my earnings strategy for BBC, in case this site is down again when earnings come out (must be terribly frustrating for David and Frederick!).

I responded to Se7en that I will hold into earnings, and that I would sell at the market price if BBC gaps down below my 8.11 stop.

I also will sell at the market price if BBC has a huge gap up on earnings, like GIGM did yesterday.  There is a boat load of resistance overhead from the May Day Crash, as well as from the last two "Gaps To Crap" at May and August earnings, which both were good, just like GIGM's earnings were yesterday. 

Technically, I have difficulty envisioning any big gap up as a "Gap And Go."  It "could be," but I'll play it for a "Gap To Crap," and I'll sell into strength.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 07, 2006, 04:53:59 AM
Even if BBC reports an earnings QUADRUPLE next week, we still have to work off that overhang of supply as we go into end-of-year tax loss selling.

I shouldn't have said that.  GIGM's Q3 net nearly QUADRUPLED. 

Market Response to GIGM: "Gap To Crap Reversal."  :P

Good luck, everybody!

Quote

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 20, 2006, 05:59:07 AM
Bullish Scenario:

1. The Gap Up Island Reversal, back into the Channel, looks bullish.

2. We have a flat top in place for an Ascending Triangle, at 10.82 - 10.80

3. Now go down and re-test the bottom of the channel that was broken, and establish that, "Yes, it's support this time," while at the same time, establishing a "higher low" for the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle.

4. Go up and knock out 10.82- 10.80, putting Target: 13.20 IN PLAY.

Math:

High: 10.80 (I always use the more conservative of the two highs

Low: 8.40

10.80 - 8.40 = 2.40 points, added to 10.80 = Target: 13.20

Then continue to act bullish...bullish...bullish  ;D

That Bullish Scenario that we looked at the morning we bought BBC has played out beautifully.

We established support at the bottom rail of the channel (refer to the chart in my last post to see that), then  an Ascending Triangle did, in fact, form, and we're poised right at the top of it, champing at the bit for an upside breakout, heading into earnings.

Very nice.

We broke out "technically," on Friday, printing 10.84, but didn't hold it on a close, although it was nice to see BBC hang onto most of the day's gains.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 10, 2006, 01:29:25 AM
Technically I'd like to see it break and hold $10.82 and then I wouldn't be surprised to see it in mid $12's before Wednesday.

Yeah, the pattern is there alright, Aussie, so this could run some into earnings if we get a solid breakout above the 10.80s on Monday or Tuesday, in anticipation of good earnings.

If it rallies into to earnings, then gaps up anywhere near our 13.20 that would be IN PLAY, I'll sell some or all of my position into it.

Quote
The real interesting thing though will be what happens after earnings. History would suggest sell off, chart (to me at least) suggests recovery.

Right.  I'm thinking a selloff on anything "gappy" near the target, or near the 200DMA (about 12.79) then a pullback for a re-entry.  Or, gap up to 12.79...run to/near the 13.20 target... then fizzle...

Just conjecture, or course.  Fun to watch, huh?

I don't know if BBC reports before or after the bell (or during the session), but we only have two or three days of trading at the most for BBC to rally hard toward the 13.20 target on a breakout Monday, then to have a "Sell The News" response to earnings.

We'll have to see how the chart stands at Tuesday's close.  Right now, it looks prett-ty!  ;)

My favorite scenario would be for BBC to selloff a little Monday and Tuesday.  Two little Black Candles, like the two that finished this last Wednesday with a tag of the 8-Day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and a close at the 50 DMA.

Then at release of earnings...

"BBC is called higher...indicated at BID 10.85...ASK 10.90"

Oooo-ooo...a BREAKAWAY GAP out of the Ascending Triangle, but not a big one.  Then a nice heavy volume SUSTAINED rally, that doesn't fizzle, encouraging our 3 groups of Angry Bulls to stay long through end-of the-year tax loss selling.

It doesn't hurt to fantasize, does it?   :D  ;D

Hmmmmm  :-\

This no doubt will cause downward pressure for Monday. Results will still be released, but conf call won't. Can't decide if this is just an admin type of thing that presents a dip buy opportunity or whether it is just another issue that keeps plaguing BBC adding another group of Melf's depressed bulls.

Hmmmm indeed...

Bodisen Biotech Receives a Letter From American Stock Exchange
Sunday November 12, 11:00 pm ET
Company Postpones Q3 Earnings Conference Call

SHAANXI, China, Nov. 12, 2006 (PRIMEZONE) -- Bodisen Biotech, Inc. (AMEX:BBC - News), (London:BODI.L - News), (http://www.bodisen.com), today announced that, on November 6, 2006, the Company received a letter from the American Stock Exchange (``Amex'') stating that the Staff had determined that the Company was not in compliance with certain of the Amex continued listing standards, specifically Sections 132(a), 132(e), and 403 of the Amex Company Guide, and need to be improved in the future.

ADVERTISEMENT
Among other things, Amex believes that the Company made insufficient or inaccurate disclosure in its public filings with regard to its relationship with, and payments to, a consultancy firm and its affiliates both prior to and subsequent to its listing on the Amex. Additionally, in the context of the Company's relationship with the consultancy firm, Amex expressed concern that the Company has internal control issues related to its accounting and financial reporting obligations. Prior to receipt of the letter from Amex, the Company publicly announced that it had terminated its relationship with the consultancy firm.

To meet Amex requirements, the Company intends to submit a plan to Amex indicating what actions it has taken and will take to bring the Company into compliance with the Amex Continued Listing Standards. If the plan is accepted, the Company will continue its cooperation with Amex during the plan period, during which time it will be subject to periodic review to determine whether it is making progress consistent with the plan.

``We value our Amex listing and we intend to ensure that we maintain that listing,'' said Karen Qiong Wang, Chairwoman and CEO of Bodisen Biotech. ``We are working diligently to communicate and work cooperatively with the American Stock Exchange to resolve their concerns as quickly as possible.''

The Company also announced that, accordingly we will need to communicate with Amex and will file its Form 10-QSB for the third quarter ended September 30, 2006 on time, it is postponing its previously scheduled November 15, 2006 conference call. After the Company has resolved its Amex compliance issue, the Company will have the conference call

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 13, 2006, 04:56:59 AM
Hmmmm indeed...

Aussie,

Yes, Hmmmm, indeed!

Quote
Amex expressed concern that the Company has internal control issues related to its accounting and financial reporting obligations. Prior to receipt of the letter from Amex, the Company publicly announced that it had terminated its relationship with the consultancy firm.

I don't know what to make of that. 

Is the emphasis on "financial reporting obligations," meaning that BBC only has to do a bunch of paper work, and get it over to the AMEX, or is the emphasis on "internal contol issues related to its accounting," possibly meaning that the great earnings that have been reported aren't as great as they appeared to be?

Just when the chart was looking sooo-oo good, too! 

Curses!   >:D

Quote
Can't decide if this is just an admin type of thing that presents a dip buy opportunity or whether it is just another issue that keeps plaguing BBC adding another group of Melf's depressed bulls.

Exactly.

Curses!!  >:D  >:D

I appreciate your posting this news, Aussie.  Applaud.   I'll have to give this a think over before the open, and decide whether or not I want to hold.

Aussie,

Here are some support levels, assuming they're going to gap it down on us:

9.94-9.96 - That's the 8-day Tenkan-sen and the 50DMA, respectively.  My guess would be that they'll gap it down at least to there, minimum.  Anything above that would be encouraging.

9.82 was last Wednesday's Bullish Hammer low, at the 8-day Tenkan-sen.  That was a nice candle. 

9.485 is the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), so we will have "fallen below the cloud support," on a gap down below that.

9.347 is the Ascending line.  It hasn't been validated by a third hit, so a gap down tag of that trendline, then a bounce at least would be encouraging.  A gap below it blows our Ascending line, as it stands.

9.05 was the recent low.  A gap below there.... UGH.   :P

At least we've got some cushion from our entries in the mid-9s, so hopefully, we won't get hurt on this one. 

A gap down below the recent 8.40 low sure would be an OUCH, though.

 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 07:25:18 AM
Aussie,

Here are some support levels, assuming they're going to gap it down on us:

9.05 was the recent low.  A gap below there.... UGH.   :P

BBC currently is indicated at BID 8.90...ASK 9.07, which likely will change by the open.

I'll sell this morning.

 :( >:(



Form 8-K for BODISEN BIOTECH, INC


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

13-Nov-2006

Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standa



Item 3.01. Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Delisting
On November 6, 2006, Bodisen Biotech, Inc. (the "Company") received a letter
(the "Deficiency Letter") from the staff of the American Stock Exchange ("AMEX")
indicating that it is not in compliance with certain continued listing standards, specifically Sections 132(a), 132(e), and 403 of the AMEX Company Guide.

Among other things, AMEX believes that the Company made insufficient or inaccurate disclosure in its public filings with regard to its relationship with, and payments to, a consultancy firm and its affiliates both prior to and subsequent to its listing on the AMEX. Additionally, in the context of the Company's relationship with the consultancy firm, AMEX expressed concern that the Company has internal control issues related to its accounting and financial reporting obligations. Prior to receipt of the letter from AMEX, the Company publicly announced that it had terminated its relationship with the consultancy firm.

The Company has already contacted AMEX to confirm receipt of the Deficiency Letter. To meet AMEX requirements, the Company intends to submit a plan to AMEX indicating what actions it has taken and will take to bring the Company into compliance with the AMEX Continued Listing Standards. If the plan is accepted, the Company will continue its cooperation with AMEX during the plan period, during which time it will be subject to periodic review to determine whether it is making progress consistent with the plan.

Prior to filing the plan and, if a plan is timely filed, while the plan is under review by AMEX, the Company expects that its common stock will continue to trade without interruption on AMEX.

Concurrent with filing this 8-K, the Company is distributing a press release announcing the receipt of the Deficiency Letter. The press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1.





Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press release dated November 12, 2006.


http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061113/bbc8-k.html

Sold BBC at 9.00.  Loss: 3.9%.

Not as bad as I expected.

Glad I had my insurance sale a week or so back. Also off loaded some at the $9 area, I decided to leave some over the close today as I wanted to just keep a small position to see if earns news or resolution of this AMEX notice may bounce the stock straight back up again. Must admit it looks unlikely, there were some crazy low AH sales in the $7's, seems some big guns are aiming square at BBC, the whole timing and reaction just seems far to manipulative than coincidental.

Here are the Q3 results:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061113/bbc10qsb.html

To coin Melf's phrase, here is another gap into crap i mean fertilizer ;)

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 13, 2006, 10:16:29 PM
To coin Melf's phrase, here is another gap into crap i mean fertilizer ;)

Aussie,

Yeah, I'd say that we got a little "fertilizer" thrown our way yesterday.  :D

Quote
Glad I had my insurance sale a week or so back.

That was a real good move. 

Normally, I would have taken some profits when we got back up to the 10.80 resistance, but I had committed NOT to trade this stock because of the illiquidity, and because I bought it primarily for the great fundamentals, looking for a big gain by holding it into 2007.

Sigh...

I'm grateful only to have a small loss in BBC, but it's disappointing to have gotten spanked for trying to pay attention to what I thought were great fundamentals.

Regardless of how good a job BBC is doing at "fertilizing China," there's something wrong here.  In addition to the problem about the payments to the consultancy firm...

Quote
To meet AMEX requirements, the Company intends to submit a plan to AMEX indicating what actions it has taken and will take to bring the Company into compliance with the AMEX Continued Listing Standards.

There needs to be "a plan" to get back into compliance?  That sounds a lot more involved than "You forgot to get some paper work in on time...send it over here."

Quote
If the plan is accepted

Excuse me, but did that say "if" it's accepted?  ???

IF??   :o  :o  :o

Quote
the Company will continue its cooperation with AMEX during the plan period, during which time it will be subject to periodic review to determine whether it is making progress consistent with the plan.

I'm not sure that married couples even have as much contact as BBC is going to have with the AMEX.  :D

Bottom line for me: The Gap Down Crash opening, below all levels of recent support that I listed before the open, was all that I needed to see.  I don't know enough to understand the extent of BBC's problems here, but I recognize a Crash opening when I see one.  SELL.  :P

Good luck with the rest of your shares, Aussie.  You're in good shape, having sold what you did.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 13, 2006, 10:16:29 PM
Must admit it looks unlikely, there were some crazy low AH sales in the $7's, seems some big guns are aiming square at BBC,

Aussie,

It would seem so.  Looks like another crash opening on tap.  :(

BBC currently is indicated at BID 6.80...ASK 6.98.

It looks like they halted trading at 11:44AM.  Last trade was 5.98, down another 30% on 2 million shares, which is huge volume for BBC.  I don't if it's the 4 groups of Angry Bulls, or if something else is going on. 

Anybody see anything?

Okay, trading resumed at 12:13PM.

Auch I got crashed.  :'( :'( :'( :'(

Moved with my company and was unable to do anything about my shares for almost a week. Looks like it was an expensive week. WHAT HAPPENED?????? ??? ??? ???

Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on November 15, 2006, 09:35:51 AM
Auch I got crashed.  :'( :'( :'( :'(

Moved with my company and was unable to do anything about my shares for almost a week. Looks like it was an expensive week. WHAT HAPPENED?????? ??? ??? ???

Amarens,

I'm sorry that you were unable to get out of it   :(

What a terrible beating BBC has taken this week.  The market doesn't like the uncertainty about a possible delisting if the company doesn't come up with an acceptable plan to get into complaince with AMEX requirements (see Aussie's post, and our discussions).

I didn't think that BBC ever would see the 5.31 target that's been IN PLAY on the chart since the May Day crash, but it MADE at yesterday's 5.29 close. 

so 5.31 is the low of the longterm down trendline...right?......bbc is on watchlist...waiting for signs of life... :D

Quote from: ket1390 on November 16, 2006, 03:11:07 AM
so 5.31 is the low of the longterm down trendline...right?....

Hey, ket!

No, that target has nothing to do with trendlines, or with any support.  5.31 simply was the target IN PLAY that I derived from taking a measurement off that big top in the chart below (all of the trading above the red trendline) when yukiii and I discussed BBC back in May on the Stock Picking Board.  Here's the chart from that discussion:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=21480;image
.

Quote
.bbc is on watchlist...waiting for signs of life... :D

I'd suggest putting this one on the back burner for quite awhile, ket.  Yes, it will have a reflex rally to the upside at some point,  probably a good one, and it could be as soon as today.

But, if you look to the left of the chart and follow the horizontal black line, BBC is back to prices when the stock traded as little as 800...1,000 shares in an entire day! 

So, that means that literally everyone who bought this stock after it started to get buying interest currently has a loss in the stock if they're still holding, and most of them have BIG losses.  Even if there is a very clear statement that BBC is back in compliance with AMEX requirements,  BBC likely would have a strong rally on that news, but there is a tremendous overhang of sellers,  and they will be selling into rallies. 

Yesterday's low "could be" the absolute low in the stock, but I avoid stocks like this, that have crashed.  They need time to build a new base and recover, technically, and that can take awhile.

Meanwhile, "cheap can get a lot cheaper."  It's possible that BBC will be delisted, which is why it has crashed so badly.  If it doesn't get delisted, then there's probably going to be shareholder lawsuits because it seems that payments to the consultancy firm weren't disclosed (or not properly disclosed?).

thanks melf elf for the rapid and good comments. ;D

nice call on the 5.31 !

this is a dead cat bounce....in the last time i tried to trade stocks that were missing earnings and were falling out of the bollinger band (mostly overreaction).....with forming of the right candle i was able to get good trades.....here are no signs of reversal yet but as you said it can change with the right news...or the right candle  ;D

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 16, 2006, 03:58:14 AM
If it doesn't get delisted, then there's probably going to be shareholder lawsuits because it seems that payments to the consultancy firm weren't disclosed (or not properly disclosed?).

The Ambulance Chasers didn't waste any time.  I got a  letter at 11:00AM this morning, by Federal Express, no less!

It's from a firm called Schriffrin & Barroway, announcing that a class action complaint has been filed in the Southern District of New York on behalf of anyone who bought BBC between August 26, 2005 and November 14, 2006.

If anyone is interested, and didn't get the letter, their toll free number is 888-299-7706.  You can call and have them send you the information.

BBCZ.PK ... after months of troubles, filed a real 10-K and reported its capital structure and EPS of $0.76 for 2006.  No surprises - in all material respects, it is what the company said all along.  I have taken a personal beating in this puppy, but still hope that the facts will translate into a FMV on the shares of a company that is rapidly growing, is now trading a 4 times earnings, and has a good balance sheet.....

Changed Ticker Symbol
'BBC' is no longer valid. It has changed to BBCZ.PK