Profile: Syntax-Brillian Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of high-definition televisions (HDTVs) in liquid crystal display (LCD) and liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS) formats, as well as other digital entertainment products.
Website: http://www.syntaxbrillian.com
Market Cap: 132.82M
Trading Idea:
This is technical trade, where we estimate to have about 10% risk and 40% profit potential, in case of failure BRLC will probably trigger our stop very fast.
BRLC is performing a BARR pattern (Bump And Run Reversal) and is now close to trigger up the «Run». BRLC just had a few nice sessions over increasing volume and touched its descending resistance yesterday, this is the risk factor on this trade, the potential is a target above $4.00 if it breakouts these levels ($2.80).
Trading Plan:
Taking the calculated risk of a fake breakout, we'll try something different for this entry plan:
We'll Buy BRLC only if it prints $2.82, if it doesn't prints $2.82 we just keep this plan in standby for further instructions.
If we buy BRLC at $2.82 we'll use a stop at $2.52 for this position (about 10% loss).
Regards,
Looks like news is out
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060712/20060712005205.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060712/20060712005081.html?.v=1
off to the races until August 15th... when they annouce earnings
Ramsburg,
BRLC is up more than 11% in pre market.
What is the entry strategy according to that?
Hi Danny,
Sorry for the late reply, I was out of the office and unable to reply about this.
Wow ! we bought BRLC with a stop buy order, and we got filled at $3.05... what an excelent surprise ;)
My take is that BRLC has a chance of filling the gap, but will must likely fly above $4 very soon.
my best regards,
BRLC: Brean Murray Starts @ Strong Buy; Sets Tgt @ $6; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 09:26 ET
Issuer: Syntax-Brillian Corporation (NasdaqNM: BRLC)
Analyst Firm: Brean Murray
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Strong Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $6.00
Analyst Comments: The firm is forecasting that BRLC"s LCD business will soon be profitable, and when this occurs or its China opportunity is more apparent, they believe the Street could double the stock's valuation.
&
BRLC: Shares Up 16.4% On Positive Guidance For Q4
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 09:54 ET
Syntax-Brillian Corp. (BRLC) has raised its revenue guidance for Q4 and fiscal year 2006. BRLC expects to be at or above its prior Q4 revenue guidance of $50-$58 million; ABOVE the consensus estimate of $53 million. Additionally, BRLC believes that gross margins will be at or above the range of 10% to 12% that it previously forecasted. On this surprise, the analyst firm, Brean Murray, rated BRLC as a strong buy and stated that it is forecasting BRLC's LCD business to soon be profitable. BRLCs' shares are up 16.4% on positive guidance for Q4.
&
bellwetherreport.com: BWR: Releases Coverage for Syntax-Brillian Corp. and Up and Coming Clothing Manufacturer
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 10:22 ET
Jul 12, 2006 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Bellwether strives to bring true growth opportunities to investors before the markets are aware that a company's market even exists, thus allowing for optimal entry points and profitable exit points. Our focus is not necessarily on individual companies, due in part to the fact that if you look at the majority of true success stories, they typically have one thing in common, they are in a sector which as a whole is considered to be undervalued! Syntax-Brillian Corp. (NASDAQ:BRLC), is responding positively and is continuing to attract attention from investors. We have also identified a company engaged in international garment manufacturing for well-known middle to high-grade casual, outer, and sportswear brands. Ever-Glory has strategic business partners in countries including China, Europe and the U.S. The Company cooperates with well-respected garment retailer chains such as Itochu, Abercrombie & Fitch, Shinko, Debenhams, Next, OTTO, C&A, I.Y., etc. in handling high and middle grade casual-wear and sportswear.
Syntax-Brillian Corp. (NASDAQ:BRLC), a manufacturer and marketer of LCD and LCoS(TM) HDTVs and digital entertainment products, announced details of a sweeping marketing agreement with ESPN and ABC Sports that will feature the company's Olevia brand throughout ESPN media properties including television, radio, print, and online outlets.
The agreement will run from September 2006 through March 2007 and leverage the breadth of ESPN and ABC outlets, including TV networks ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN HD, ESPN2 HD, and ESPNews as well as ESPN Radio, ESPN.com, and ESPN the Magazine, to highlight the Olevia brand of LCD HDTVs. Additionally, Syntax-Brillian will create new Olevia advertisements, specially produced in high-definition, to be shown on ESPN HD.
Olevia will be presented alongside a broad range of sports programming including Major League Baseball, college basketball, and football, as well as ESPN's signature sports news and information program SportsCenter. The brand will enjoy broad exposure to the 122 million Americans watching, reading, surfing or listening to ESPN and ABC Sports media properties each week.
"Not only do ESPN and ABC Sports' broad audience reach and popular programming present Syntax-Brillian with a fantastic showcase for our award-winning Olevia brand," said Hope Frank, vice president, marketing for Syntax-Brillian, "but teaming up with such iconic and powerful brands enables us to introduce Olevia to an important market segment on a grand stage with flawless execution."
Olevia's advertising media schedule includes spots in high-profile programming across five television networks -- ABC, ESPN, ESPN HD, ESPN2, and ESPNews -- as well as an exclusive sponsorship position of ESPN and ESPN2's HD programming during the highly influential fourth-quarter holiday shopping period. This critical fall and winter selling period coincides with increased interest in HDTVs ideally suited for the ESPN sports fan.
Olevia will also be the Presenting Sponsor of the premier college basketball pay-per-view package in the country, ESPN Full Court, which offers more than 450 college basketball telecasts to cable, satellite, and online subscribers nationwide.
Additional details of the agreement include:
ESPN HD and ESPN2 HD: Olevia is the premier sponsor of ESPN's high-definition live-sports coverage of college basketball, NBA, NHRA, SportsCenter, and other studio shows, plus ESPN's HD programming partner from October 2006 through January 2007.
ESPN Radio: Olevia will be featured in a full schedule from September 2006 through March 2007 with heavy tie-in to ESPN.com promotion and high-profile, in-show sponsorships of ESPN Radio's flagships: Mike & Mike in the Morning and The Dan Patrick Show.
ESPN the Magazine: Olevia will be featured in three popular issues including the NFL Preview issue, NBA Preview issue, and "NEXT" -- the Super Bowl Preview issue.
Olevia will also be featured with the ESPN Golf Schools and point of sale programs at select retail locations.
"Olevia is working across the ESPN and ABC brands in the perfect manner," said Bryan L. Burns, ESPN's vice president, strategic business planning and development. "Our collaboration with Syntax-Brillian, which is dynamic, fast-growing, and has global reach, is designed for Olevia to take very thoughtful advantage of the wide selection of ways we can assist companies in reaching their goals. And with the centerpiece of the effort being Olevia HDTV, the wide range of high-definition programming covered by this agreement will look spectacular on an Olevia HDTV."
Following this announcement Syntax-Brillian Corp. (NASDAQ:BRLC) continued to trade well, shares are up today on higher than average volume.
WHY YOU BOUGHT IT?
IT DID NOT PRINT 2.82.
"We'll Buy BRLC only if it prints $2.82, if it doesn't prints $2.82 we just keep this plan in standby for further instructions."
GOGO
Quote from: GOGO on July 12, 2006, 12:47:14 PM
WHY YOU BOUGHT IT?
IT DID NOT PRINT 2.82.
"We'll Buy BRLC only if it prints $2.82, if it doesn't prints $2.82 we just keep this plan in standby for further instructions."
GOGO
Hi Cogo,
I'm sorry about any misunderstanding; probably the syntax of the trading plan was not the best from my side, and may have generated some confusion. The main idea was to buy it if it started to trade above the descending trend line, the operational way for the entry was a stop buy order triggered at $2.82 (or above), that was executed @ $3.05.
Once again, I'm sorry about any inconvenience :(
Regards,
I think your words were clear since you said: "Taking the calculated risk of a fake breakout ...", which means you wanted to make sure this is a real breakout before entering.
Now, I am really in pain: I entered the buy-stop order at $2.82 before market. But after the morning news I decided not to chase and changed it to buy limit at $2.88 ... the rest is history. Ah!!!
Ramsburg, do you look at Bollinger Bands at all? The main reason I changed my mind was because I saw it was gonna gap up way beyond the then upper BB. How should one use BB?
Thanks.
Quote from: Ramsburg on July 12, 2006, 12:57:37 PM
Hi Cogo,
I'm sorry about any misunderstanding; probably the syntax of the trading plan was not the best from my side, and may have generated some confusion. The main idea was to buy it if it started to trade above the descending trend line, the operational way for the entry was a stop buy order triggered at $2.82 (or above), that was executed @ $3.05.
Once again, I'm sorry about any inconvenience :(
Regards,
For me it was quite clear, the entry-point was if it traded at or behind that point, the graphic was quite clear.
I also didnt get in on this one because of the intstructions, but more than anything I am interested in learning about the concept of bump and run, since clearly it worked well in this case!
Can you elaborate on this TA concept some more Ramsburg?
Quote from: tokyopua on July 13, 2006, 01:05:49 AM
I also didnt get in on this one because of the intstructions, but more than anything I am interested in learning about the concept of bump and run, since clearly it worked well in this case!
Can you elaborate on this TA concept some more Ramsburg?
Hi tokyopua,
The BARR pattern can be described almost as a usual descending support breakout... but it's not so linear... The best way to be familiarized with this pattern will probably to read the Bulkowski «bible» for chart patterns (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471668265/3stocksonfire-20?creative=327641&camp=14573&adid=0XDMGMWR1C0JV5QEC3XV&link_code=as1) on the BARR chapter, I believe he was the one starting with the BARR concept, and to start tracking this patterns when they appear on sight.
I just draw you a small synthetic chart for you, and I copied the first page from Bulskowski about this pattern (I'm not sure I can do this ;)).
Regards,
Once again, my apologies for any misunderstanding on yesterday's entry plan, next time we use an irregular entry strategy we'll try to leave a clear order instruction.
Update:
News:
Syntax-Brillian Ups 4Q Sales Outlook (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060712/syntax_brillian_outlook.html?.v=1)
Wow !... BRLC exceeded our expectation for the first day on this position... We were searching for a confirmed breakout and we got a Breakaway Gap ;) ... this was to be a 100% technical trade and now we got great news about fundamentals ;) ...
Not even a plunging Nasdaq session messed up with this move, and BRLC closed near the highs of the day, approaching the $4 barrier.
On yesterday's chart I had a small mistake on the ema-200, it was the sma-200 instead, and it's corrected now. BRLC closed above the ema-200 with strong volume, a breakout and a runaway gap... This is extremely bullish, taking also into consideration the improved fundamental guidance, but we'll not change our first idea about this trade which was technical: The target of the BARR pattern is $4.40, if it goes there we'll have another breakout, this time of a long term resistance line, but we'll ignore that and focus only on the short term move that motivated us in first place.
The Nasdaq had an extremely bearish session, and the general broad market outlook is now in a very danger situation, so even if I personally believe this will turn up into a great general buying opportunity, we'll play safe and tight up our stance on this position, trying to take advantage of this bullish news and demand.
Trading Plan:
Hold BRLC with a stop @ $3.20 and a Limit Sell order @ $4.30
Best regards,
Hi Ramsburg,
Thank you very much for the VERY detailed explanation, it far exceeded my expectation of an answer, applause to you for that! I think I may buy that book now that I see how powerful it is and how detailed.
And for any of us that felt we missed the ride yesterday, it seems the market has decided to bring BRLC currently to within about 15 cents of the 3SOF buy price...
Quote from: tokyopua on July 13, 2006, 03:32:26 PM
Hi Ramsburg,
Thank you very much for the VERY detailed explanation, it far exceeded my expectation of an answer, applause to you for that! I think I may buy that book now that I see how powerful it is and how detailed.
And for any of us that felt we missed the ride yesterday, it seems the market has decided to bring BRLC currently to within about 15 cents of the 3SOF buy price...
No problem tokyopua ;) It was not very detailed, just a small draw ;)
Yes, you must buy the «bible», see it as an investment ;) Its probably the best book about technical patterns around, Bulkowski also published another book a few years ago, and it's like a complement on the first one.
Unfortunately we got stopped on BRLC, this ugly move on the markets didn't helped at all, and probably our stance was too tight with that stop level, since BRLC recovered a lot near the closing bell... But we made the plan and we followed it, locking down a profit during a major market sell off. For those still holding BRLC I would suggest a stop a bit bellow today's low price and the same limit sell order.
Regards,
Managed to hold it until now, looking great so far, @3.8 - closing half of my position and holding the other part to the 4$ attack!
Quote from: Dracull on July 18, 2006, 09:59:38 AM
Managed to hold it until now, looking great so far, @3.8 - closing half of my position and holding the other part to the 4$ attack!
Dracull, are your still holding ?
One of the basic principles of successful trading is that one needs to rapidly correct mistakes. Perhaps "mistake" is a strong word with a negative connotation, maybe it would be better to call this "perceptions not confirmed by reality", since, in trading, as in life, there are no mistakes, only lessons.
And reality doesn't confirm perceptions not only when a stock goes down after we buy it, but also when it goes up after we decide not to buy it !
Let's take BRLC as an example: I analyzed the stock and concluded it was both technically and fundamentally attractive. But I thought it would pullback and close a huge gap it had open. But reality was that, after some consolidation, it broke out to new highs:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28417;image)
Now here's my initial analysis and a trading plan in the end of this post:
«1. Introduction
Oh, I miss saffeysite1, what a wonderful trader he is. I just wrote him a private message to see if I get him back to writing on 3 Stocks on Fire. The man was in BRLC @$3 :) (well, then the stock went up to $6 plus, back to $2.5 and now almost $8 - amazing volatility).
2. Profile
Syntax-Brillian Corporation (BRLC) (www.syntaxbrillian.com) is one of the world's leading manufacturers and marketers of LCD and LCoS(TM) HDTVs and digital entertainment products. The company's lead products include its Olevia brand (www.olevia.com) of widescreen HDTV-ready and HD-built-in LCD TVs -- one of the fastest growing global TV brands -- and its next-generation Gen II LCoS(TM) 720p and 1080p rear-projection HDTVs for the high-end video/audio market. Syntax-Brillian's global supply chain, Asian operations, and North American sales channels position the company as a market leader in consumer and high-end HDTVs and digital entertainment products.
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28140;image)
Nothing special on this all history chart for BRLC. The stock price is below its IPO price back in 2003.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28141;image)
Jesus, this stock is up 300% in just 4 months :o. What a catch. It looks very overbought now, but who cares about that? It was overbought already at $6. Huge gap on the beginning of November, we'll get to that in a moment.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28142;image)
There's no doubt the trend is bullish. I really have to read the 3rd quarter numbers and put them into historical context to get a better feeling if the stock will continue to push higher or just correct to the ascending trendline.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28143;image)
Ouch, big dilution started on 4Q 2005. The number of shares issued and outstanding rose from 7 million in 3Q 2005 to the current 51,446,695. This alone makes the market cap grow seven fold without any share price appreciation. This happened because of a merger between
BRLC and Syntax, as you'll see below. Anyway, the share count has been rising rapidly over the last 3 quarters.
The current market cap is 51,446,695*$7.66 = $394.1 M.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28146;image)
These $27 M in working capital on the balance sheet mask a not so pretty reality. Check the inventory build up:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28147;image)
Green are inventories and blue are accounts receivable. As you see there was a build up in inventories in this latest quarter. Also, receivables are growing rapidly. The current ratio, which is current assets/current liabilities = 1.24, which is below the 2 minimum threshold level. But if we subtract from this the inventories and receivables the number gets a lot worse. But probably the inventory build up is the company preparing for the Christmas season.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28148;image)
The November 2005 merger completely changed BRLC. Let me check the news for this information:
«On November 30, 2005, we completed our merger with Syntax Groups Corporation, a privately held California corporation ("Syntax"), whereby a wholly owned subsidiary of our company was merged with and into Syntax and Syntax became a wholly owned subsidiary of our company (the "Merger"). As consideration for the Merger, Syntax shareholders received 1.5379 shares of our common stock for each share of Syntax common stock held by them on November 30, 2005 (the "Exchange Rate"). In the aggregate, shareholders of Syntax received approximately 34.3 million shares of our common stock. The Exchange Rate was calculated so that former shareholders of Syntax owned approximately 70% of the fully diluted shares of the combined company at the closing of the Merger. Therefore, the Merger has been accounted for as a reverse merger wherein Syntax is deemed to be the acquiring entity from an accounting perspective. As such, the historical financial statements of Syntax became the historical financial statements of the combined company upon completion of the Merger.»
So, comparisons between what the company is now and what it was a year ago are futile. I should consider just the latest 4 quarters. Analysts expect sales in 4Q to come in at $186.33 M, which is 3.1 fold more than in the same period of last year. Indeed, sales are growing very rapidly on BRLC.
Estimates for the 12 months until Jun 07 are for $583.5 M in revenues, and for Jun 08 are for $797 M. The current market cap is $394 M and the industry's price to sales ratio is 1.22 (so, exclusively according to this, market cap should be about $711 M in Jun 07 to be at market average. This means an 80% rise in the share price (or say, 50% on the share price plus 30% on the share count looks more realistic).
Let's check the net income (now I'll forget about the period before November 05).
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28149;image)
Please note that the last 3 bars represent the expectation for full fiscal years 2006, 2007 and 2008. For fiscal 2007, which ends in June 07, the estimate is for $0.48, so the current earnings multiple is 15.9. For Jun 2008, if estimates are met, the earnings multiple is 11.
5. General Overview
Man, this stock is hard to analyze. Analysts are seeing incredible growth here, and if they're right BRLC is trading at a huge discount.
Let's see, by parts:
- Technical analysis is very bullish, but the stock is up 300% in just 4 months or so. It may correct a chunk here.
- The increase in the number of shares outstanding is after all, normal. The big jump in the end of 2005 was because of the merger with Syntax, and the share count growth since then is the company financing itself to ramp up production, as demand is building.
- Probably the problems I see on the balance sheet are a seasonal thing. Inventories and receivables building up for the Christmas shopping season.
- Revenue and EPS growth is impressive, but even more impressive are estimates going forward
My general overview goes to this idea: wait for a pullback to get in. Probably the stock will come down to fill the gap at $6.38 or touch some of its ascending supports. I would buy then.»
Current Trading Plan:
Buy BRLC below $8.51 today. 6.66% of capital as usual.[/size]
[/font]
Stocklemon updates Syntax-Brillian
Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) - A Roadmap for a Money Losing Business
As Black Friday approaches, it is no surprise that the must have item of the year is an LCD -Television. This known fact has caused the recent run up in stock price of low cost LCD middleman Syntax- Brillian (BRLC). We can only hope that the picture given off by the televisions of Syntax is brighter than the picture given by their most recent balance sheet.
As CBS Marketwatch just reported,
"Many analysts had been forecasting that flat-screen TV prices this holiday season would be down 25% to 30% from last year, said Joe Feldman, managing director and the senior retailing analyst at research firm Telsey Advisory Group."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5EA2CB3D-2DF3-4B12-9012-E263F2287DBA%7D
The drop in LCD Prices has become a hot topic as the holiday Season Approaches.
http://www.digitimes.com/displays/a20061113PR205.html
Yet, we are supposed to believe that Syntax-Brillian can maintain 18% gross margins as just a reseller of LCD Televisions. Let us look into the recent Q and get a "clearer picture" of the company.
Cash Does Not Lie
As of Syntax's most recent filing, their net cash position was (30.2 million) yes that is negative $30 million
This is cash plus long term investments minus total debt and converts. Compare this to their last filing as of September 13, when the stock was trading at $4.5 a share and their net cash was ($29.95 million)
So the market cap increased by $150 million but net cash decreased by 300k.
The future of Syntax-Brillian is not so bright. Just look at what we found in the recent 10Q filing:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232229/000095015306002765/p73129e10vq.htm
1. Price Protection from Kolin (largest shareholder) was $4.3 million which is larger than their net income.
2. Kolin's price protection is no longer guaranteed so they might not be able to enjoy its protection in future quarters. This was never discussed by management in the conference call and extremely relevant considering price protection for the year ending June 30, 2006 was $61 million
3. The company wrote up inventory $5,319,000. Yes, that is not a misprint they wrote it up, not down. In a time when LCD prices have been slashed by up to 30% over the past 6 months, Syntax-Brillian wrote up their inventory
4. If you reverse all the charges for costs of goods sold (price protection, warranty accrual, and inventory writeup) BRLC is LOSING MONEY on every television sold.
5. One Asian customer accounted for 54% of revenue ($47 million dollars). This can only be the same customer that was responsible for the $53.4 million accounts receivable. So basically, this customer is taking televisions and not paying so fast. The amazing thing is that it appears as if the customer actually owes more money than the amount of product they bought in the entire quarter.
*Note this receivable could not even be factored because of the difficulty in repatriating money from China. Nothing is to say we will even see this cash in the next Q.
The CEO would like us to believe that in the future, price protection might come from other avenues besides Kolin. We are sorry to say that even LG Phillips, the panel provider to Syntax-Brillian will not provide price protection as stated in their most recent 20-F.
""...the company does not offer any form of price protection or a returns policy..."
It is the opinion of Stocklemon that BRLC stuffed their channel in order to put a good top line number and used accounting tricks to attempt to produce a healthy bottom line number. All of this to take the stock up in the short term and allow the company to do an equity raise from one of the many cheerleaders (Brean Murray, Utenberg)
Why would a company go through all these measures to get the stock higher? On January 5, 2007 the company has a loan payable to Preferred Bank for $13.8 million. This is more than the cash position of the company. More noted, this loan is personally guaranteed by certain of the officers and directors of BRLC.
We are not doubting the Syntax-Brillian can sell televisions. What we are doubting is if they can make a business selling televisions at a loss, not to mention a $400 million business.
Maybe the insiders were keen to this as they have been unloading stock on the investing public. In a marketplace where low priced flat panel televisions are becoming commodities and margins are decreasing, Syntax-Brillian has need to worry. This one trick pony is undercapitalized to compete in the space and when the accounting tricks and price protection run out, so will the investors.
As Jim Cramer said on November 6 about BRLC.... time to ring the cash register.
Cautious Investing To All.
i havent read it yet that precise because i am at work....but if a stock is on stocklemon site people will get nervous and start to think about the stock....so mostly those stocks mentioned there were good shorts...like hom...
Quote from: ket1390 on November 16, 2006, 04:35:33 AM
i havent read it yet that precise because i am at work....but if a stock is on stocklemon site people will get nervous and start to think about the stock....so mostly those stocks mentioned there were good shorts...like hom...
Well, although I enjoyed reading Stocklemon's due diligence, I believe the market is proving him wrong too. The analysis was written on November 14th just before the stock broke out to a new high yesterday.
Time will tell who's right, but I would never consider shorting a stock with a chart like BLRC. In fact, I'll buy it today.
BRLC opened with a small gap up that was followed by profit taking. Profit taking did last until the stock exactly touched it's support, prior resistance, at $8.18. Then a recovery unfolded.
The plan was to buy below $8.51, so I bought at $8.40 when the stock was coming down after the small gap up. Finished the day in the green as it closed at $8.47.
BRLC will be selling flat panel TV's this Christmas for $499. I bet it will be a huge success. Also, it will give much more investor awereness to this small $435 M market cap company.
I'll continue holding BRLC.
David, you said: :)
"since, in trading, as in life, there are no mistakes, only lessons."
But believe me... if you step out in front of a speeding autobus: its a mistake! >:D you gotta "live" to "learn"! I hope tomorrow's open will help confirm the strength of the gap up.
I was sorry to see our site down this morn but since I'm only smart enough as to follow instructions, I followed orders and picked up my BRLC a little under yours! :D
regards, m
QuoteI was sorry to see our site down this morn but since I'm only smart enough as to follow instructions, I followed orders and picked up my BRLC a little under yours!
Good job anvilring :)
Usually I'm not very good at intraday timing, but I really don't care about a few dimes. Trying to grab the big moves.
Stocklemon made reports on just 17 companies this year, IIG and BRLC being two of them :-\. I think he's right on IIG, but I believe he's missing the big picture on BRLC.
It's not that what he writes (http://www.stocklemon.com/11_14_06.html) isn't true, it is, but it is a partial truth. He talks a lot about the relationship between Syntax Brillian and Kolin, but that is in direct conflict with this Brillian's move for production in the US:
TV manufacturer moves operations to U.S. plant (http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=ustvfactory28&date=20061028&query=flat-panel+TV)
Unit volume growth is staggering, as this is the only company making LCD's and LCoS in the United States.
Let me quote just this:
QuoteThe upstart TV maker introduced its first Olevia sets in 2004, selling them only online at 20 to 30 percent below name-brand prices. It's now the 10th-largest maker of LCD TVs as measured by units shipped, according to market researcher iSuppli.
Now, Olevia TVs are also sold at two dozen retail chains, including Circuit City, Kmart and CompUSA.
And this:
QuoteOverall sales of LCD TVs in North America are predicted to rise from 10.9 million units to 17.8 million in 2007, according to iSuppli. That number is expected to rise to 32.6 million by 2010.
Sollitto said the savings will add 5 to 7 percentage points to the company's gross profit margin.
Look at the company's products (http://www.olevia.com/jsp/home.jsp), don't you think they will sell well this shopping season, since they are much cheaper than other brands? If you live in America you can go to a shop near you (http://www.olevia.com/jsp/where_to_buy/wtb_usa.jsp) and compare prices and quality.
I think BRLC can be worth $12 before the year's end. I'll continue holding the stock.
hi,
in at 847
maxi
Nothing new on BRLC today, the stock is holding fairly well above the $8.18 support level. As soon as we digest recent gains it will push higher again, as this is probably one of the best plays on this Christmas shopping season. I'll continue to hold BRLC without restrictions.
We had this news before the open on BRLC: Syntax-Brillian Completes Acquisition of Vivitar (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061121/20061121005229.html?.v=1)
I believe this acquisition makes sense, especially because of Vivitar's distribution channels:
«The company has a diverse portfolio of intellectual property assets and patents and maintains a variety of international distribution channels in the U.S., France, the United Kingdom and Hong Kong.
Syntax-Brillian expects to leverage Vivitar's existing distribution channels to create new outlets, notably in Europe, for its LCD televisions as well as any new Olevia or co-branded digital entertainment products that the company may develop.»
This means Europe, currently the biggest LCD market in the world, will have access to Olevia's LCD and LCoS.
After the close some details on the acquisition were disclosed:
«Upon the closing of the merger, we issued 4,565,141 shares of our common stock to the sole shareholder of Vivitar, and Vivitar became our wholly owned subsidiary.»
This increases the number of shares outstanding, from 51,446,695 to 56,011,836. This means the market cap increased $38.4 M due to this acquisition, even without any share price rise. It's hard to know, but I expect the value Vivitar brings in terms of revenues, profits and assets is at least these $38.4 M, hopefully more.
The stock is up about 0.8% after hours, so the market is taking the news well.
Volume is declining as BRLC consolidates recent gains. I'm expecting a powerful white marubozu anytime soon and I'll continue holding without restrictions.
hi,
volume and price action, a good combination. :D
maxi
Quote from: rickjust on November 22, 2006, 09:51:25 AM
hi,
volume and price action, a good combination. :D
maxi
and a little long term resistance ::)
Thanks for that long term chart rickjust :)
I don't think that resistance level is relevant, though, look at the volume traded on that area, it was insignificant.
www.smartmoney.com has a bullish article on BRLC today: Big-Picture Potential (http://www.smartmoney.com/Techsmart/index.cfm?story=20061122&afl=yahoo)
I think nothing will stop the tape now, not until Black Friday. By the way, when is that?
Of course I like this company and the stock, but back in my head I still worry about dilution. I don't think I'll hold this for more than a month, but I'm not selling now ... wait a few more days. By the way, the market is probably giving headaches to StockLemon, never fight the trend is his lesson.
thanks david,
for pointing out the volume discrepancy. that does make a huge difference. two other things i noticed about the resistance on the long term chart. back in sept 04 where the stock met resitance today, brlc was trading under the 200 day and as you can see on the chart was about to take a dive. so this situation is different.
it finished nicely today.
black friday is this friday. no trading tomorrow because of thanksgiving.
max
Quoteblack friday is this friday. no trading tomorrow because of thanksgiving.
max
Really, Thanksgiving is tomorrow? Sorry, since I'm not an American I don't even know what Thanksgiving is :-[
Well, now I know: Thanksgiving definition (http://www.answers.com/topic/thanksgiving-day)
You guys have a nice party :D
hi,
a new 52 week high today, by one penny.
max
I think this picture says it all about how BRLC's sales are going on this shopping season:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28958;image)
But, don't forget the stock is up 260% over the last 5 months, partially discounting this revenue surge. Do you know that very old Wall Street saying "buy the rumour, sell the fact"?
It is 200 years old and it still makes sense.
I don't have a big profit to take on BRLC, just a small one, but it is better than nothing and much better than taking a loss. I need to trade right and the market doesn't know what was my entry price, he doesn't care. Anyway, I want to take profits only if people rush in to buy the fact. If they don't, it means "buy the rumour" will continue, perhaps until the 24th of December.
So here's the trading plan:
1) Take profits if BRLC is up 5% on Monday, that is, sell at $9.30 - $9.35.
2) If you don't have this chance, continue holding the stock.
Something I found on The Big Picture....
Retail Sector Market Performance
Historically, retail stocks run up in anticipation of the holiday season. Once its finally here, many of the gains amy be built in already.
MarketBeat Breaks it down for us:
"Analysts at Birinyi Assoc. looked at the historical performance of various retailers after [BLack Friday] through the end of the year and found that, though shoppers are buying goods in their stores, investors are selling their stocks. During this bull market, which began in 2002, all six groups of retailers Birinyi examined have negative returns from Thanksgiving through year-end, underperforming the S&P 500, which is generally flat during that time period.
The worst-performing stocks have been consumer-electronics names, which have lost, on average, 9.1% in the post-Thanksgiving period. The best are clothing retailers, which have lost a mere 1.4%. Going back to 1996, the picture looks a little better. Clothing retailers, general merchandisers and home-improvement stocks have shown positive returns in the Thanksgiving-to-New Year's period, with gains of 1.75%, 2.74% and 6.31%, respectively, beating the S&P 500's 0.82% return during that time. But consumer-electronics stores, department stores and specialty retailers have all posted negative returns. Electronics retailers have done the worst, with average losses of 4.39%.
I dont know about others but I could not get a hand on low priced HDTV at Walmart and then ended up buying one at COSTCO.COM [b/w they still have the sale till 27 Nov]. The results of HDTV reminded me of watching color TV for the first time and you do have big Wow!
I dont own BRLC. Goodluck BRLC holders.
hi,
sold at 9.
maxi
That's an excellent information basonista, thanks a lot :)
Quote from: stocky on November 26, 2006, 10:35:02 PM
I dont know about others but I could not get a hand on low priced HDTV at Walmart and then ended up buying one at COSTCO.COM [b/w they still have the sale till 27 Nov]. The results of HDTV reminded me of watching color TV for the first time and you do have big Wow!
I dont own BRLC. Goodluck BRLC holders.
Thanks for the info stocky, will you consider buying it after the current correction?
Quote from: rickjust on November 27, 2006, 10:50:08 AM
hi,
sold at 9.
maxi
Good trade Maxi !
Unfortunately I missed the selling point for 10 cents, the high of the day was $9.20 and I said "sell at $9.30 - $9.35". If it wasn't for the general market weakness I'm sure BRLC would have hit the selling target.
I'm undecided with this position, don't know what to think of it (you can read about my doubts on this entire thread). And in doubt, stay out.
I'll take a small profit on BRLC around tomorrow's open and will look to buy it back around support, say at TL2 or the 50 SMA. I think the pullback on this stock can get really nasty (because it is up so much from July lows in anticipation of strong sales this shopping season) and I want to protect the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Positive outlook may take BRLC higher.
Syntax-Brillian Lifts 2Q Sales Outlook
Monday December 4, 5:19 pm ET
Syntax-Brillian Lifts 2nd-Quarter Sales Outlook, Thanks to Strong Holiday Sales
TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) -- High-definition television set maker Syntax-Brillian Corp. said Monday it expects second-quarter revenue to come in ahead of a previous forecast, thanks to strong holiday sales over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The company now expects quarterly sales to come in at, or above, its previous guidance for $178 million to $190 million in revenue.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to post $185.7 million in second-quarter revenue.
Separately the company said it reached an agreement to raise $10 million in financing.
Under the terms of the deal, John Jung-Jyh Wu, president and chief executive of TCV Group, a supplier of plastic injection molded parts used in some of Syntax-Brillian's television sets, and John Huang, chairman of Premier Image Technology Corp., a contract manufacturer of some of Syntax-Brillian's digital cameras, will receive 1.3 million shares of common stock priced at $7.73, with three-year warrants to purchase 64,683 shares at an exercise price of $9.276 per share, exercisable beginning on June 1, 2007.
Shares of Syntax-Brillian were trading at $9 in the aftermarket session, up 44 cents, or 5.1 percent, from Monday's closing price of $8.56 on the Nasdaq.
Quote from: David Randolph on November 27, 2006, 05:07:15 PM
Unfortunately I missed the selling point for 10 cents, the high of the day was $9.20 and I said "sell at $9.30 - $9.35". If it wasn't for the general market weakness I'm sure BRLC would have hit the selling target.
Hi David and all still holding. (Sorry I'm lausy on updates right now, moving with my company and it just takes all the energy out). $ 9,30 was in play yesterday and I think today it'll trade around that level. Will try to sell today at $ 9,35.
B.t.w. David, it's great to read your updates again!
Thanks,
Amarens
BRLC found support at the 50ma and it's ascending trendline, MACD improving and both STOs have crossed. Looks ready to move up again. :)
This was definitely ready to move! Too bad it did it without me. :(
Up 10% pre-market on record revenues... :o
Syntax-Brillian Corporation Announces Preliminary Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2006
(http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005679.html?.v=1)
Wow, talk about selling the news! I really feel for anyone that bought this morning. I have been on that end of the trade before. :(
It may take a little longer to recover from the "sell the news" day and ensuing weakness but BRLC is approaching the 50ma again. The stock is still bullish so hopefully we will see some consolidation around this level before another move up.
Selling the News may be coming to an end just hit 50 dma. Should start it's up leg if not today Tuesday.
Actually, it's not quite to either the 50ma nor the 50ema. BRLC did match yesterday's low of 8.80 so we have a potential tweezer bottom coming in. For a more secure trade, I would wait for some upward movement before buying. That selloff was so severe that it BRLC may not recover as easily as we hope.
Not much time for updates this morning...
BRLC found support at the 50ma once again and reacted nicely with a high volume spinning top which could indicate a change in direction. Better to buy on a strong break above yesterday's high to confirm trend change.
A lot of blood in the streets today.... :'(
Ugly, ugly day. >:(
Looks like it's ready for it's next move up. ;D
Great company. I was able to pick 1000 shares up at 8.87 this morning. Thanks for point it out!!
How far up do you think it will go? I'm thinking maybe 10.50? (Though fundamentally it looks very undervalued).
Lots of resistance in the 9.75 area. I bought 1000 @ 8.87 and 1000 @ 9.52 today.
Sold all shares at $9.77 for about 6% gain. Thanks for BRLC. It may still go up but I think I will watch for now.
This company has a bright future and should do well tomorrow...up 8% after hrs. Market must have drove it down today...strange?
(10:23 AM ET) SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Syntax-Brillian Corp. (BRLC :
BRLC6.99, -1.01, -12.6%) shares tumbled 15% to $8 in Thursday morning trade after the Tempe, Ariz.-based maker of HDTVs and digital entertainment products reported fiscal second-quarter net earnings of $14.8 million, or 25 cents a share. In the same quarter last year, the company posted a net loss of $1.23 million, or 4 cents a share. Revenue rose to $242.5 million from $60.2 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had forecast a per-share profit of 24 cents on revenue of $241.8 million. For the fiscal third-quarter, Syntax-Brillian expects revenue of $160 million to $170 million, and for fiscal 2007, the company expects revenue of $650 million to $700 million.
Hi,
bearish or bullish ?
we will see. You can see a triangle formation on chart.
For those who play "TRENDS", here is a bearish strategy :
buy at 6.32
stop-loss at 7.12
target at 5.00
Good trades
:)
Brillian Corp (NASDAQ: BRLC)
The threads on this pick in the Previous 3SOF Picks Board,
Have been merged.......
BRLC peaked early in the year and has been dogging it since.
It was looking good right up until their last earnings report in May, but it has come back.
It is sitting right on a 7 month down trend line and closing above 6.75 should convincingly break it.
The pullbacks are an organized MM activity, JMHO, due to the heavy short interest. Using them to add as we seem to be basing and holding at key support levels. Earnings are just around the corner and I anticipate some upward movement when the date is announced.
52wk Range: 3.33 - 11.70
Volume: 2,481,531
Avg Vol (3m): 3,692,820
Market Cap: 408.04M
P/E (ttm): 22.97
EPS (ttm): 0.28
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
2.52%above 13-day MA
4.29%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 94
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 31
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $555.77
P/E Ratio: 29.03
PEG Ratio: 0.44863
Next Earnings: 09/11/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Hold
I will leave you with Friday's closing chart while I'm in this thread.......
Changed Ticker Symbol
'BRLC' is no longer valid. It has changed to BRLCQ.PK