3SOF

Another potential short for me.. PHM broke 50sma  ;)


My shorts list:
UTHR, LEN, CVTX, WAG

Quote from: Terliso on May 03, 2006, 01:04:36 AM
Another potential short for me.. PHM broke 50sma  ;)

When the trend is down they will continue to go down... especially when a stock broke the 50(sma) in the downside ;) (WEEKLY SCALE)

Very good ;) :D

Distribution is just keep going ;)

nice@! We need some more good shorting picks like that. Residential Construction sector down -8% last 5 days

Still looking good (hold short) ;)

Sold short on 05.03.06 @ $35.78
Current close price 05.30.06 $32.66
Gaining: 8.72%

Continue hold short PHM ;)

Quote from: Terliso on May 30, 2006, 04:22:16 PM
Still looking good (hold short) ;)

Sold short on 05.03.06 @ $35.78
Current close price 05.30.06 $32.66
Gaining: 8.72%

Gaining over 16% ----->hold short ;)

Hey terliso still hold BRCD? Im still in that sucker just seems to be hesistant on going down. I covered my DHI a day ago in the low 26s :( i missed out on todays gain

terlisso was right on in this one, could have had at least a double in jan 35 puts.  Don't recall what hey where when Terlisso posted this in the mid 30's but at least a double I would think.  so look for break of 50 sma and macd negative, anything else?

Quote from: catrader on June 06, 2006, 11:55:06 AM
terlisso was right on in this one, could have had at least a double in jan 35 puts.  Don't recall what hey where when Terlisso posted this in the mid 30's but at least a double I would think.  so look for break of 50 sma and macd negative, anything else?

I wish you could have entered catrader.... ;)
I'm Gaining over 27%

--> HOLD SHORT <---

I'm looking to cover PHM this week or possibly tomorrow...
It may found support there @ 200SMA weekly scale ;)

Quote from: Terliso on June 07, 2006, 02:23:48 AM
I'm looking to cover PHM this week or possibly tomorrow...
It may found support there @ 200SMA weekly scale ;)

I Change my mind ... HOLD short PHM ;)

I'm still holding PHM a break from 200sma will put this stock in an uglier situation.
It's already breached the 200ema weekly scale. ;)

covered @ $27.22 ;)

Just shorted some PHM today up over 5% today and the recent few days of rebounding seem to be over done. When the market turns PHM is going right back to 26-29 range. The same grim outlook still stands for residential construction.

Not sure where you see the short opportunity here... this thing just crossed the 50dma on increased volume... good MACD and RSI.  Resistance at between 32 and 34 will definitely slow it down... but that's another 8-10%...

You could still be right though... we shall see.

I dont believe PHM will run much more above the 50dma. Earnings are due tomorrow lets see where it will go from here, strong chance it will sell off with neutral to bad earnings and outlook news. Market also might have some problems tomorrow.

I did not know earnings were tomorrow  ;D  It is probably a good play then.... just technically the chart looked very nice for longs and not so nice for shorts... but earnings tend to stop stocks in their tracks.

Earnings released today after hours. I may cover my position in After Hours if it gets wild enough on the downside. So far up over 2.5% ;).

http://www.smartmoney.com/news/PR/index.cfm?story=PR-20060726-003121-1705

Earnings are released PHM just lowered guidance again! Doesnt look pretty for PHM good for shorting though  >:D

Earnings released were horrible so was conference call... and what does PHM do go up 2%! lol I suppose its because the market is up today pretty big. Good time to short this dead dog is going to fall soon.

Looking good down over -3% now! on high volume  >:D

Was a neutral day today for PHM. It was bearish in the morning and then made an unexpected comeback and closed slightly neutral. Im at about 5% profit in PHM still holding, PHM is still a good short and looks extremely bearish. >:D >: Most likely the 50 dma on the *daily will act as a strong resistance and the 5 dma will drop again under the 20 dma and lead to another sell off . The MACD is heading into negative territory the RSI is at 50 ready for a drop again.

PHM

GYI broke the 200sma & 200ema (weekly scale) & never look back.

On a mid to long term short PHM looks even better :). The last few days have been perfect entries for shorting.

Good day to short some PHM its heading back upto 30 excellent time to short I believe.

I am by no means a chart expert but PHM looks bullish to me.  It broke the 50 dma, MADX, RSI, and ADX all positive, and it is at the high of the day.   Nullzero what am I missing?

It looks good techincally but its a short on fundamental reason. The home builders are doing horrible and more bad news is most likely soon to pour in. PHM released lowered earnings outlook way below expectations. Foward PE is still high for a company that is likely to start doing land write offs.

Thank you very much.  I now know why I lose money in the market; I get tunnel vision.  I see one side of the story that I like and run with it.  At least my wife tells me that I am good looking, because we all know that I am not a smart man.  Good looking boy but dumb!

All HBs are up pretty big today on the better then expected retail sales news. These days HBs will find any excuse to rally because they have been so bearish for a while. However check out the other news today that was skipped over... very important news I think for the real estate market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1075F84E%2D0DCE%2D4484%2DB8D2%2D024F9E64D029%7D&siteid=

California the leader in the economy for the U.S. and the leader in the real estate boom.

"The number of defaults on mortgage payments rose to a three-year high in the second quarter in California, a 67% increase from the year earlier period"

More supply is hitting the market... supply was already at record highs for housing inventory this will just add more fuel to the fire for the decline in HBs. Simple supply and demand will lead the housing market down with a rapid growing amount of supply from over building and defaulting homes and a decrease in demand.

Next week is going to be very important for the direction of PHM. Today PHM gapped slightly up and then continued to run up high just shy of 32.00. The rest of the day it sold off, I suppose today we saw a short squeeze in the morning and then people came to there senses and bag holders sold it off and shorts entered when the HOV news came in on slashing earnings outlook. This short position is almost purely on the outlook of the industry and weakness in real estate and home building. RSI is near 60 and the MACD is in green I expect next week we should see some major pullback action. Though tuesday can be somewhat unpredictable on how the stock will respond to the pause in interest rates. I think if they pause interest rates this may lead to a slight rally or may be neutral, I say neutral because I believe the market has already fully priced the pause of interest rates into the current market levels and this is why we have seen some buying and covering the last 3 weeks.  I dont think a pause in interest rates will help the situation builders face anytime soon, they over built plain and simple and the current situation in real estate doesnt look good.

Quote from: nullzero on August 04, 2006, 10:23:02 PM
Today PHM gapped slightly up and then continued to run up high just shy of 32.00. The rest of the day it sold off, I suppose today we saw a short squeeze in the morning and then people came to there senses and bag holders sold it off and shorts entered when the HOV news came in on slashing earnings outlook.

nullz,

That's a nice read of the day's action.  Applause.

Quote
This short position is almost purely on the outlook of the industry and weakness in real estate and home building.

That's fine, but we want to tie that in with the technicals, and then set up a good trading plan.

Analyzing a stock fundamentally and technically is the easier part, in my opinion.  Actually playing the trade is much more difficult.

For example, July 18, and again on July 21, PHM made new lows for the year.  Anyone shorting those new lows based on the lousy fundamentals (DHI lowered guidance by a whopping 44%!!) had a terrible enty short into the stock, although we can understand their reason for wanting to short it, fundamentally.

PHM rallied about 22% from the July 21 low to Friday's 31.94 high.  Yeeks.  :o

As they say, "Timing is everything," eh? 

When GIGM reported great earnings in May, it tanked more than 40% thereafter.  "Sell the good news...it's already is factored in."

The builders have had a nice rally the past two weeks.  "Buy the bad news.  Who doesn't know that earnings estimates are being slashed?" 

Just some T2T discussion for those following your thread, because the market can be so counter-intuitive, at times, and it can be difficult for us to undertand. 

That said....

Technically, it's interesting where Friday's rally ended.

If we begin at the July 21 low (#! on the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern in purple), the first rally attempt (purple #2) ended right at the bottom of the prior Bear Flag (June-July pattern in red).  Failed re-test.  PHM sold off to a secondary low (#3 in purple).

Thursday morning, the bottom rail of the Bear Rising Wedge was at 27.98.  PHM gapped down to 28.10, and made a low of 28.08.  In this price range, that was "close enough" to be a validation of that trendline being support.  Confirmation of that fact was the upside takeout of Wednesday's high of 29.01, right at the 50DMA.

The short squeeze was on when PHM printed 29.02...29.03...29.04....and took off to 30.44, closing at 30.20.

The shorts remained under pressure on Friday, as you said nullz, and technically, we're looking to see where next data point is going to be (it's #4 in purple) to complete a Bear Flag or a Bearish Rising Wedge off the July 21 low.

Quote
Technically, it's interesting where Friday's rally ended.

Interesting because:

1. The 31.33 gap from June 2 got filled.  Gaps don't always get filled, but often they do.

2. The bottom of the June-July Bear Flag came in on Friday at 31.68.  PHM went a little above that, to 31.94, before selling off.

3. The top of the Kumo (Cloud), which often serves as resistance when a stock rallies from below it, came in on Friday at 31.99.  The 31.94 high just missed it, by five cents.  I'll post that chart next.

Friday's rally was capped at the top of the Kumo (Cloud).

Next week is going to be fun and volatile  >:D. Well im hoping my PHM trade goes my way. Nice work on the technicals Melf  ;D. Friday would of been a great spot to jump in short in the high 31.00s.

Looking stron on PHM today, my short stop limit is set at next resistance 32.22  time will tell

Short PHM at 31.42.  Stop: The top of the Rising Wedge, at 32.10 today.  Risk: a loss of under 3%.

Nice entry MELF! Hehe I didnt time mine as good but we should all profit in the end ;). Glad to see you in on this one.

Quote from: nullzero on August 07, 2006, 01:49:02 PM
Nice entry MELF! Hehe I didnt time mine as good but we should all profit in the end ;). Glad to see you in on this one.

Thanks, nullz.   So far, so good, but 1½ hr. to go.  ;)

Quote from: Terliso on June 07, 2006, 02:23:48 AM
I'm looking to cover PHM this week or possibly tomorrow...
It may found support there @ 200SMA weekly scale ;)

Lucky that I covered PHM @ 27.22 for over 23% profit & it did found support @ 200sma (weekly scale) ;)

Goodluck to both of you nullzero & melf ;)

I forgot you had a thread going on PHM short :(. Shucks I should of merged it in oh well I guess we can tell the admistrators to do it.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 07, 2006, 01:39:24 PM
Short PHM at 31.42.  Stop: The top of the Rising Wedge, at 32.10 today.  Risk: a loss of under 3%.

Covered ½ my PHM at 31.05 ahead of the FED.  Didn't get the selloff that I wanted today.  Gain: 1.2%

merged...

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 07, 2006, 03:59:12 PM

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 07, 2006, 01:39:24 PM
Short PHM at 31.42.  Stop: The top of the Rising Wedge, at 32.10 today.  Risk: a loss of under 3%.

Covered ½ my PHM at 31.05 ahead of the FED.  Didn't get the selloff that I wanted today.  Gain: 1.2%

friday was a reversal candle off 3 levels of resistance.  i shorted intraday strength yesterday, expecting phm to sell off and go red on the day, following thru on friday's reversal candle.  instead, phm held the better part of its gains on the day, showing some strength.

i will cover remaining ½ position if phm shows more strength today by printing 31.45, a penny above yesterday's high, for ½% gain on the entire trade.

sorry about typing.   have to type with one hand.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 08, 2006, 05:27:21 AM
i will cover remaining ½ position if phm shows more strength today by printing 31.45, a penny above yesterday's high, for ½% gain on the entire trade.

covered at 31.45.

PHM showing weakness down -2% currently and it looks like its heading lower.

PHM continuing its weakness into the FED meeting lets see what happens after the FED announces what it will do.

PHM heading for new LODs as I type. I expect by the end of this month PHM should be trading at new 52wk lows. The FED news just confirmed that rates will most likely need to be raised in the future. PHM is currently down over -3.5% trading at 29.96.

Nice day for the short side  >:D. PHM closed at 30.00 down -3.51%

Here are some Important dates to note that may move PHM lower...

Aug 16 8:30am   Building Permits
Aug 16 8:30am   Housing Starts

Aug 22 XXXXX   [TOL] Toll Brothers Q3 2006 Earnings Release 

Aug 23 10:00am   Existing Home Sales

Aug 24 10:00am   New Home Sales

I expect that TOL's earnings, existing home sales, new home sales will slam the HBs stocks including PHM into the ground. The HBs love moving together all in the same direction. The week of 8/21 will be espically important for this short position. I believe the HBs will get slammed during this week but just incase I will set a generous stop on those days. I may cover this short position sometime during the week of 8/21 maybe friday depending where I am at on this short position.

Here is some extra bearish info on what to expect from TOL's earnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD78FFF30%2DA7D6%2D4A08%2DADB5%2DF341A029043E%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

Covered PHM for about a 1.2% profit... PHM has been down over 10% the last 3 days on no news. Planning to re short closer to 30.

The downside on Homebuilders continues, weaker then expected home sales data was released today and its not looking pretty! Keep shorting those Homebuilders on every bounce we have just started the real estate bubble burst I believe.

Decided to short this at 28.85. The recent housing reports looked dismal, at best. Figured a day where the stock is up 3% for no good reason is a good place to short  >:D

Nice entry today nutsterrt! I think we are going to continue the downside and make some new 52wk lows soon until we see any kind of strength on the upside bounce.

The chart looks like PHM is ready to make a big move down. The moving averages are bunched together ready to make a move. Still looks like a good time to enter short on PHM , shorting as close to 30 would be a good risk reward with a cover at 28 or below.

Time to look again.  Nulz, your downside happened but support at 27.70 held and bounced hard.  The Value in home builders may be getting some attention this week.

today it closed at or just above the channel top, and resistance at 31.27 on decent volume and a close at HOD!  If 31.27 holds in the morning i see the first target at around 33.70 and hopefully the stronger resistance at 36.50 (that would be nice for longs!)

I think that i see an inverted H+S pattern trying to finish with that target of 36.50 being in play as the end of the H+S pattern that started on the big market down move May 11.

Anyone have thoughts on PHM.  If it does not hold the up move the channel short trade should be in play with a target of 27.70

If i play it long 31.10 seems like a logical stop loss point

Cheers joe

Time to reshort PHM? I reshorted today near 34... this bounce I believe is over.

Quote from: nullzero on October 10, 2006, 02:24:57 PM
Time to reshort PHM? I reshorted today near 34... this bounce I believe is over.

nullz,

I was thinking of you this morning when PHM hit its 200 DMA, which also is the top of the channel off the 26.02 low.

34.4062 - was yesterday's 200 DMA

34.389 - is where the top of the channel comes in today.

34.41 - is today's high.

NOTE: A Falling Wedge is nested within the channel.  The target of 34.22 MADE today.

Good luck with your short.  It this channel gets taken out to the upside, you might want to cover.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 10, 2006, 02:51:18 PM
It this channel gets taken out to the upside, you might want to cover.

nullz,

Be careful here, my friend. 

PHM is back at the top of the channel (34.545 for today), it made a new high for the move by a penny yesterday, and it closed above its 200DMA.

Wall Street analysts seem to be getting behind the builders, citing that they're trading a only 1 times book value, which historically, has been a low in the sector with only a couple of exceptions.

Regardless of the fundamentals, this could run on the upside on a short squeeze and on new buyers coming in on the channel breakout, ala BRCD, APPL, ZMH, etc.

Good luck!  I hope it sells off right here for you.  ;)

Centex fundamental news brought down all the HBs big today :).

Quote from: nullzero on October 13, 2006, 04:04:13 PM
Centex fundamental news brought down all the HBs big today :).

nullz,

Yes, I was glad to see PHM come off the upper trendline for you.  ;)

You've got a nice entry short near the top of the channel, so you're in great shape on a risk:reward basis.

Good job!  Applause.

The Bullish Falling Wedge target of 34.22 MADE, just as the stock got to DOUBLE resistance at the top of the channel, and at the declining 200 DMA.

Yesterday, PHM put in a Bullish Doji Star hammer at the 50DMA, which also is the top of  Kumo (Cloud) support.  Additionally, the 34/55RSIs have returned to Bullish Synchronicity.

Yesterday's high of 31.49 is the buy pivot.  A print of 31.50 today is a 34/55RSI Buy Signal. 

Bought PHM at 30.92.  Stop: A close below 30.15.  Risk: a loss of 2.5%

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 08:48:14 AM
Yesterday's high of 31.49 is the buy pivot.  A print of 31.50 today is a 34/55RSI Buy Signal. 

There's the 31.50 Buy Signal. 

I'd like to see yesterday's low of 30.79 hold and a close of 31.67, or better, for a Bullish Morning Star at the 50DMA.

EDIT: Sorry, I forgot the chart.  :D

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 09:48:21 AM
There's the 31.50 Buy Signal. 

PHM closed above the 31.50 Buy Signal.

Quote
I'd like to see yesterday's low of 30.79 hold and a close of 31.67 , or better, for a Bullish Morning Star at the 50DMA.

The 31.76 close is good for a Bullish Morning Star off the 50 DMA.

I'm raising my stop to 30.78, a penny below yesterday's low (which is the low of the Bullsih Morning Star). 

Risk on the trade now is reduced to a loss of about a ½%.

PHM 3rd quarter results are in they came in below expectations. Lets see how this trades tomorrow. Im still holding my short position up roughly 5%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061025/earns_pulte_homes.html?.v=3

Quote from: nullzero on October 25, 2006, 10:47:36 PM
PHM 3rd quarter results are in they came in below expectations. Lets see how this trades tomorrow.

nullz,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

Quote
Im still holding my short position up roughly 5%.

I'm still holding my long position up roughly 4%.

Recently, housing stocks have rallied like yesterday, or at least held up, on bad news.

"It isn't the news that matters...it's the reaction to news that matters."

Trading Strategy:

If PHM gaps down below the Bullish Morning Star low of 30.79 (or trades below that at any time), I will sell at the market, no questions asked.

I would do that anyway, but in this particular case, that kind of gap down would suggest that PHM put in a H&S Top here, and a target of 27.00 would be IN PLAY.  Math is on the chart.

If that should eventuate, I also would look to reverse and go short near 30.79-30.86, the Bullish Morning Star low and the broken neckline, respectively.  Stop: a penny above yesterday's 32.76 high.

Good luck!

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 08:04:43 AM
[Recently, housing stocks have rallied like yesterday, or at least held up, on bad news.

"It isn't the news that matters...it's the reaction to news that matters."

VERY Bullish Reaction to the bad earnings news:

1. Gap down to 31.99, then made a low at 31.61.

2. Printed 32.00, above the gap down opening, indicating strength.

3. Turned green on the day

4. Went up and printed a penny below yesterday's high, despite the earnings disappointment

If the Bulls change their minds today, however, and take out this morning's 31.61 low, I would view that as very wimpy, and at least a short-term "vote of no confidence."  I'll sell, and take a 2% gain.

Sold at 31.93 on the break of the Bear Flag, which also is the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top on the Minute chart.  Gain: 3.3%

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 10:41:08 AM
If the Bulls change their minds today, however, and take out this morning's 31.61 low, I would view that as very wimpy, and at least a short-term "vote of no confidence."  I'll sell, and take a 2% gain.

Bulls ended up wimping.  :P

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 11:18:50 AM
Bulls ended up wimping.  :P

The Bulls wimped in the very short-term...they've brought it back to UNCH. 

Good performance, on the disappointing earnings. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 01:20:48 PM

The Bulls wimped in the very short-term...they've brought it back to UNCH. 

nullz,

Man, they got me gooood on that minor blip below 31.61, to 31.50.

The Bulls came roaring back.

Curses!  >:D  >:D  >:D

Frustrating.  My impatience is one of my demons, and I got punished for it today.  >:D

It's a demon because, more often than not, I get rewarded for selling breaks of support, and for NOT "hanging on," and " hoping" that the market will bail me out of a bad situation.

Not today.  I got bested.   >:D  ;D  >:D

Oh, well....  A 3.3% gain still is a gain.

Sigh.

It ain't easy, is it?  ???  ;)

Good luck with your trade, my friend.

Yeah im all short right now last week or so. Shorting ERTS, AEOS, ANF, PHM, GS. Im up on PHM slightly down on the rest 1-6%  :-\. This crazy market is going to turn sometime maybe after the elections who knows. I played the market up on in the last 3 months but didnt reap the rewards enough hehe.

nullz,

You might get some help from Cramer today.  ;)  >:D

Pulte Sees Stability

Cramer welcomed Pulte Homes (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) CEO Richard Dugas to the show and asked him if only the homebuilder's low-end homes were moving well.

"No, we're having a slowdown across the board," Dugas responded.

When Cramer asked if he sees any areas that have bottomed," Dugas said, "I wouldn't call it a bottom yet."

"We have seen signs of stabilization," Dugas went on to say. "As an example, our cancellation rate was steady for the entire three months of the quarter, which is a positive trend."

"We are hopeful that certain markets have bottomed, but cannot call it for certain yet," Dugas said.

Because there's been a very big run in the homebuilder, Cramer advised viewers to "take a little off the table."
   
   

Yeah PHM is taking a hit its around 31.90s now. Looks like you made a good move selling at 31.93 PHM wants to move lower from what it looks like.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 11:18:50 AM
Sold at 31.93 on the break of the Bear Flag, which also is the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top on the Minute chart.  Gain: 3.3%

nullz,

Selling there turned out alright.  I would have been stopped out today for a loss.  The " Bullish Morning Star" low of 30.79  got taken out this afternoon.  :P

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 26, 2006, 08:04:43 AM
I would do that anyway, but in this particular case, that kind of gap down would suggest that PHM put in a H&S Top here, and a target of 27.00 would be IN PLAY. Math is on the chart.

At earnings, PHM failed by a penny to take out 32.76, the high of the Right Shoulder, then this afternoon, took out the Bullish Morning Star low of 30.79, and on the  print below 30.94775, it also took out the neckline, which is the data point for today. 

Today's low is 30.71. 

PHM has rallied back, slightly above the neckline break, currently BID 30.99...ASK 31.00

You're in nice shape here, nullz, as long as the 32.76 high of the Right Shoulder doesn't get taken out to the upside.

Good luck!  ;)

nullz,

Cramer must have bought the selloff, after he said "take some."   >:D

"Short sellers on Toll Brothers (TOL - news - Cramer's Take - Rating), KB Home (KBH - news - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Pulte Homes (PHM - news - Cramer's Take - Rating) "are all about to get rolled over if they stay short," Cramer said. 

"The homebuilders are ready to come back," he said. "Homebuilders are sitting at their lows because things aren't getting worse."

"It's time to ride the bull and for shorts in the homebuilding sector to declare victory" and not be piggish bears, Cramer said."

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 31, 2006, 02:44:15 PM
You're in nice shape here, nullz, as long as the 32.76 high of the Right Shoulder doesn't get taken out to the upside.

The close was a few pennies above the neckline, so that held on a closing basis.  If 32.76 gets taken out to the upside, watch out for a Cramer short squeeze.  :o

Good luck!

I covered today with about a 9% profit. May reshort PHM if it gets into the 33s again. Enter a long position in DIVX.

Quote from: nullzero on November 01, 2006, 02:02:37 PM
I covered today with about a 9% profit.

nullz,

Congratulations!  You worked very hard on this trade.  Applause.

I had to laugh when I saw the long-tailed Bullish Hammer close above the neckline again , by a couple of pennies.  I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it would seem that "they" dost conspire to take this higher.

"They" being defined as "Cramer."  :D

Just kidding.  :D  >:D

Quote
May reshort PHM if it gets into the 33s again.

You might give that some more thought.

If PHM hangs on here, and if the high of the Right Shoulder, 32.76, gets taken out to the upsdie, it could be a Bull Trap, and you'd be fine shorting it.  But, ESLR, at April earnings, is the ONLY example that I can think of in recent memory where the takeout of a Right Shoulder was a Bull Trap.

The rest of them resulted in at least short-term short squeezes (like Boatman's NGA), and some of them got quite nasty, particularly NTRI, GIGM, SWIR and most recently, NVEC.

I've been meaning to discuss "The Takeout of Right Shoulders" in Melf's Workshop.  Haven't gotten around to it.

Anyway, nice trade, nullz!  ;)

PHM is looking nice to reshort again soon.

Quote from: nullzero on December 01, 2006, 12:04:59 PM
PHM is looking nice to reshort again soon.

nullz,

There's a TRIPLE Short Squeeze on in PHM, so be careful about shorting it.

Short Squeeze #1: The "mini" Bearish H&S Top (in red).  It looked like that pattern was going to fail right at the neckline (blue) of the Blue H&S Toip.

Instead, that "bearish" pattern broke out to the UPSIDE yesterday, so the pattern measurement is IN PLAY on the UPSIDE.

Short Squeeze #2: The Breakout of the BULLISH Inverse H&S (Green Trendline).  The Blue Right Shoulder of the Blue Bearish H&S is the Left Shouder....the Right Shoulder is in the pattern in red.  (Sorry, that's complicated to see that on the chart).

Short Squeeze #3: I've had that on this chart for quite awhile.  That's the takeout of the Right Shoulder of the Blue H&S Top.

When those get taken out to the UPSIDE, it can presage a horrific short squeeze, like we saw in NVEC, GIGM, NTRI,

Yesterday's white candle in PHM was on 6 milliion shares, and was very tough on the shorts.  PHM gave back a little today, but not much, and it's now rallying, squeezing the shorts again.

PHM currently is BID 34.07...ASK 34.08,  up $0.34, and printing new highs on the day.

I am watching it to see if it over extends itself to the upside, if it starts showing weakness soon it may be a good short after existing shorts get squeezed out. The stock shouldnt have much upside left... the stock is trading up but the fundamentals and housing situation gets worse.

Quote from: nullzero on December 01, 2006, 12:50:32 PM
I am watching it to see if it over extends itself to the upside, if it starts showing weakness soon it may be a good short after existing shorts get squeezed out. The stock shouldnt have much upside left... the stock is trading up but the fundamentals and housing situation gets worse.

Nullz,

Yeah, you might want to hang about a bit, and let it play it.  CNBC is going to do a piece in a minute about how bad the housing market is, but "What's up with the rally in the housing stocks?"

"What's up" is a nasty short squeeze.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 12:36:28 PM
PHM currently is BID 34.07...ASK 34.08, up $0.34, and printing new highs on the day.

Now at 34.51.  The bears have been under constant pressure the past two days on the squeeze.

just shorted PHM again at 34.23

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 12:36:28 PM
There's a TRIPLE Short Squeeze on in PHM, so be careful about shorting it.

Short Squeeze #1: The "mini" Bearish H&S Top (in red).  It looked like that pattern was going to fail right at the neckline (blue) of the Blue H&S Toip.

Instead, that "bearish" pattern broke out to the UPSIDE yesterday, so the pattern measurement is IN PLAY on the UPSIDE.

Short Squeeze #2: The Breakout of the BULLISH Inverse H&S (Green Trendline).  The Blue Right Shoulder of the Blue Bearish H&S is the Left Shouder....the Right Shoulder is in the pattern in red.  (Sorry, that's complicated to see that on the chart).

Short Squeeze #3: I've had that on this chart for quite awhile.  That's the takeout of the Right Shoulder of the Blue H&S Top.

nullz,

Be careful, buddy.  The TRIPLE Short Squeeze still is on.  PHM has taken out last Friday's high in today's down market, and is marching higher on the squeeze.

Im under 2% right now but im pretty confident the market is not thinking clearly on this one. PHM should be trading low 30s soon once reality sets back in, im going to hold through the squeeze.

Quote from: nullzero on December 06, 2006, 11:40:25 AM
Im under 2% right now but im pretty confident the market is not thinking clearly on this one. PHM should be trading low 30s soon once reality sets back in, im going to hold through the squeeze.

nullz,

Okay, just wanted to make sure that you understood the TRIPLE short squeeze.  Good luck!

UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Time right to buy into homebuilders-Citi

Wed Dec 6, 2006 12:45PM

Dec 6 (Reuters) - Citigroup recommended that investors buy shares of homebuilders now as order trends are expected to turn positive in the first quarter of 2007.

"While many wait for an improvement in fundamental data such as prices or inventory to signal an 'entry point' in the stocks, we urge investors to look back to prior cycles, when the group rallied far ahead of fundamentals," Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim said in a research note.

The brokerage firm raised its price targets on the following companies: COMPANY NAME PRICE TARGET

Current Prior
Pulte Homes Inc (PHM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $45 $39
D.R.Horton Inc. (DHI.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $48 $39
Lennar Corp. (LEN.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $88 $68
Centex Corp. (CTX.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $83 $68
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $42 $36
KB Home (KBH.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $92 $75
MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $85 $63
Ryland Group Inc. (RYL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $95 $66
Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $80 $57
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $63 $48
Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $43 $32
Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $87 $66
Technical Olympic USA Inc. (TOA.N: Quote, Profile , Research) $18 $17

(Reporting by Deepti Chaudhary, Aditya Phatak in Bangalore)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

PHM is pulling back, I think we are going to see 30-31 next week.

Bought PHM at 31.94.  Stop: 31.54.  Risk: a loss of 1.3%.

This morning's 31.55 low was an exact hit to the Inverse H&S neckline that broke out on November 30.  (see daily chart, next post).  PHM now has gone green on the day by a few cents.

If 31.55 wasn't a low, I'll stop it out. 

The neckline of the Inverse H&S (green line) that broke out on November 30 came in today at 31.554.  This morning's low: 31.55.

The pattern (in blue) off the December 6 high of 35.31 (Blue #1) is a Falling Wedge, a bullish continuation pattern if the top of it (Blue #1 and Blue #3) is taken out to the upside.  This morning's 31.55 low "should be" Data Point #4 of that pattern.

The 50/200DMAs will make a Bullish Cross on any decent rally.

Seems worth a risk of 1.3% on the trade on a stop out at 31.54.

I like the fact that PHM managed a positive close in a down market, especially given the fact that two hours after I bought it, CNBC did a piece in which they said that analysts expect the stock to be one of the WORST performers in the S&P in 2007.

You have to love that kind of thing, right after you bought the stock!  :P

At any rate:

1. Yesterday's low of 33.55, which was an exact hit to the Inverse H&S neckline (in green),  held up as the low on the day.

2. The 33.55 simultaneously provides Data Point #4 (in blue) for a Bullish Falling Wedge if it continues to hold up, which "should be" a bullish continuation pattern.

3. The 50 DMA is at 31.895 and rising; the 200 DMA is at 32.12, and falling.  They'll make a Bullish Cross on any decent rally.

4. Friday's high of 32.12 was right at the 200DMA. It would be a plus if PHM can knock that out, and close above it.

5. A takeout of the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge would be a THIRD Bullish pattern breakout in a Rising Channel (see Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, next post).

6. Always excluding a gap down, of course, I like the fact that the risk is only a 1.3% loss in this trade, which is a buy at what "should be" support.  That remains to be seen.

In the Rising Channel (red), there are three Bullish Patterns:

#1 - Bullish Falling Wedge (green) - it broke out on September 11, putting 34.22 IN PLAY.  The target MADE at the top of the Rising Channel (red) on October 10.

#2 - Bullish Inverse H&S (blue) - it broke out on November 30, putting 36.44 IN PLAY.  The high of that breakout is 35.31, but PHM never has closed below the neckline (it tagged it exactly, at Friday's 31.55 low), so 36.44 still is IN PLAY.

#3 - Bullish Falling Wedge (purple) - it's only bullish if it breaks out, which would be a print of 33.16 on Monday, January 8.  It declines at the rate of 0.09375 per day.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 05, 2007, 12:21:18 PM
Bought PHM at 31.94.  Stop: 31.54.  Risk: a loss of 1.3%.

Stopped out at 31.54.  Loss: 1.3%

That was a very tight stop, and I'm suspecting that the early drop was a possible downside fakeout/shakeout, but I wasn't willing to pay to find out.

PHM had another bullish pattern breakout today, at 32.50, on more bad news in the sector.  The 50/200DMAs are at 31.877 and 31.882, respecitively, and likely will make a Bullish Cross today.

The TRIPLE Short Squeeze, explained in previous posts above, is back on.

I think I will shy away from going long on PHM. If PHM decides to climb higher I will watch for a good entry for a short. The fundamental situation in the real estate market is not going to get better anytime soon.

Quote from: nullzero on January 17, 2007, 05:09:34 PM
I think I will shy away from going long on PHM. If PHM decides to climb higher I will watch for a good entry for a short. The fundamental situation in the real estate market is not going to get better anytime soon.

nullz,

I understand your point, but what I find so interesting is that yesterday, PHM had a THIRD bullish breakout, despite the fundamentals, and despite analysts' expectation that this stock will be one of the worst performers in S&P 500 this year.

The 50/200 DMAs also had a Bullish Cross yesterday.

I tend to be very one sided in my viewpoint when I believe in something. This is one of the reasons I miss out on many good plays and also lose on others. PHM may very well be a good play for a short term long position. HBs are going to be volatile today with the Building Permits and Housing Starts data.

PHM slashed profit outlook afterhours today. PHM dropped over 3% in AH trading. I am curious to see where this will be trading tomorrow, I think it is going to continue downward in the low 30s.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b80B446E4-2428-439E-A612-6C8DDEEC6341%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Quote from: nullzero on January 19, 2007, 02:12:55 AM
PHM slashed profit outlook afterhours today. PHM dropped over 3% in AH trading. I am curious to see where this will be trading tomorrow, I think it is going to continue downward in the low 30s.

nullz,

Yeah, I'm curious, too.  The fundamentals look lousy, but the chart looks fine, although yesterday was a Bearish Gravestone candle. 

Support is roughly 32.34 - 31.32:

1. the top of the pattern breakout (blue)

2., the 50/200DMAs, which just had a Bullish Cross

3. the neckline of Bullish Inverse H&S (green)

If the bad news already if factored in, PHM should be able to handle it, and find support.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 19, 2007, 06:29:58 AM

Yeah, I'm curious, too.  The fundamentals look lousy, but the chart looks fine, although yesterday was a Bearish Gravestone candle. 

PHM has taken out the high of yesterday's Bearish Gravestone candle.  That's pretty impressive, given the lousy news.  The Street was expecting $0.37.  PHM is saying a loss of $0.05 to a gain of $0.05.

Normally, a stock would get whacked for disappointing like that.

Quote
Support is roughly 32.34 - 31.32:

1. the top of the pattern breakout (blue)

2., the 50/200DMAs, which just had a Bullish Cross

3. the neckline of Bullish Inverse H&S (green)

If the bad news already if factored in, PHM should be able to handle it, and find support.

The low so far is 32.78, well above the top of support.  The gain might not hold up, but early trading is indicating that the bad news already is factored in.

PHM currently is BID 33.75...ASK 33.76, up almost 3%, rather than being down 3%, like it was in after hours.

Quote from: nullzero on January 18, 2007, 04:49:00 AM
I tend to be very one sided in my viewpoint when I believe in something. This is one of the reasons I miss out on many good plays and also lose on others.

I forgot to applaud you for that, nullz.  Applause.

It's hard for us to admit that, and I admire you for doing it, but it really does hurt our trading when we get stuck in our opinions.

Wow im suprised it rallied... Nice job Melf on catching the bullish pattern.

Quote from: nullzero on January 19, 2007, 11:37:59 AM
Wow im suprised it rallied... Nice job Melf on catching the bullish pattern.

Thanks, nullz.

The 35.31 target MADE.

Miserable fundamentals...beautiful, bullish chart patterns. 

"When the fundamentals and the technicals disagree, defer to the technicals (or at least give the technicals strong consideration)."

Didnt play this one on the short side when it hit 35... I still believe its a good short play at 33. I can see this going back into the high 20s sometime in the summer.

Back to shorting......