3SOF

May take out 10,600 today.  Huge break out from last weeks consolidation.

What do you guys think about DOW right now? I think it will rise towards 10500 and if it brakes that, it will also brake 10700 in the coming weeks.

I appreciate opinions.  ???

Goozman

It hit ~10060 today. Ouch, that hurt me a bit  :o

Goozman

Based just above 10200 for a good few sessions now Thursday saw bottom shadow test just under 10200 which was the bullish prelude to Friday move. I think it set to test recent highs again 10600 region (top bollinger band)

Isn't it interesting how the DOW has worked completely opposite the price of Crude Oil (which has been in an uptrend since the middle of 2003). Oil goes up, DOW goes down.

Might be interesting to see how the market reacts to Crude Oil in the next few weeks. But what has interested me the most, is how many stocks work their way  up on a given day, seemingly nomatter what the market does. I always heard that, but never really saw it till I came to 3SF. I haven't figured yet how to find those which are ready to break out before they do, but I'm sure if I keep my ears open on 3SF, I will eventually figure it out. Or someone will email me and set me straight :'(

The DOW found support at the lower TL (10,350) and has now made a nice 200 dollar move too the down TL. It will be interesting too see where we continue the move up or have met ressistance at the TL ??

Has been painful lately.

Nice 2 day move up from the lows, but, closing right against the median trendline which could be some major ressistance. Good report from IBM and not so good economic??? Which way do we go form here ??????

The broad markets have had a great run the last several years though 2005 was not as great it was still pretty good

The NYSE index that is made up of all the stocks listed there is close to an all time high and up over 7% for 2005 but up over 350% in the last 14 years or average of 25% a year.

one year daily chart

(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/nya21005.jpg)

14 year weekly chart

(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/nyaweekly.jpg)

The S&P 500 stocks are also closing not too far off the all time high made recently. This is the total index made of all the stocks and not the phony one quoted by the media

(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/rspyear05.jpg)

The Value Line is made up of 1700 stocks and shows how strong the market has been. This also though shows that the 4-year cycle high is to be reached in the next quarter and this is watch buy most chat followers. We cannot know if it will follow the same pattern but if it does expect a pullback before April to last until the last Quarter when the 4-year cycle low is due.

(http://xs61.xs.to/pics/05524/vlelt05.jpg)

These may or may not come about but interesting to watch. But the safest thing to do is wait for a trend to be obvious. Tight now some charts show negative divergence but they are all still in a nice uptrend and the trend is your friend.

The economy is doing well with increasing corporate profits and they may not push the market but better to wait before being too bearish.

Funny thing the bears make less profit on the same move. If a $21 stock goes to $2 a long makes 100% profit but if a short then sells it at $2 and it goes to $1 he makes only 50% profit. So the money is in being long as long as you can find good stocks to buy.

Metro,
I really appreciate your analysis!
Thanks for your great postings


наилучшие пожелания и с новым годом


(Hope my translation was correct  ;) )
cheers
Oliver

Спасибо  la-onda С Новым годом к вам также

I put a post on market highs I guess on wrong place - maybe does not matter

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4213.new#new

Profit Taking in USA Markets or something more ?

The market's move lower was unsurprising after the major indexes reached new 4 1/2-year highs Wednesday for the second time in a week. Also the crude still showing some resistance to fall, the futures prices remained elevated and worries about the resumption of Iran's nuclear research program weighed on the market. Iran is "not worried" about its possible referral to the UN Security Council over its nuclear programme, a senior nuclear official told state television on Thursday. The market also was pressured by downgrades for Coca-Cola Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase and earnings uncertainty.  ::)

If, this were the end of the month.  Todays close would be the highest close ever recorded.

Congratulations! New Dow High   ;D

Theres no conspiracy. Its the will of the people.  ;)
Consumer confidence is after all, at or near highest levels.
Ride em up, though it does get scary when the market keeps hitting the Moving average ,like today.

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
1.16%above 13-day EMA
2.95%above 50-day EMA

Dow Sets Intraday Record

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a milestone Tuesday, setting an all-time intraday high, as crude prices plummeted below the $60 level.

After opening to the downside, the Dow recently was adding 83 points, or 0.7%, to 11,753, surpassing the old record that had been reached in January 2000.

The Dow was aided by gains of 1.5% or more in Boeing (BA:) , United Technologies (UTX:) and Honeywell (HON:) . Overall, 24 of the 30 components were in positive territory.

The other major indices were moving higher, as well. The S&P 500 was adding 3 points to 1332, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 11 points at 2248.

On Monday, a back-and-forth day started the fourth quarter, but ultimately the Dow lost 8.72 points, or 0.07%, to 11,670.35. Last week, the Dow was tantalizingly close to establishing a new high mark, but it couldn''t quite get it done.

"It''s not just that the Dow is going to an all-time high," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial. "A lot of sectors are breaking out to records, giving us some good rotational activity. When you drop almost $2 in one day on crude prices, we should expect this type of huge move."

Lately, crude futures were losing $1.90 to $59.13 a barrel. Oil''s two-day decline has brought prices down $3.78, or 6%. Lehman Brothers downgraded the oil and gas sector to negative, and Merrill Lynch cut the energy sector to underweight.

Combined with oil''s slide, the downgrades pulled the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index lower by 2.7% and the Amex Oil Index down by 1.9%.

With no economic data on the docket, Treasuries were unchanged. The benchmark 10-year note was flat in price to yield 4.60%. The dollar weakened against the euro and rose against the Japanese yen. Elsewhere, gold was tumbling by $15.60 to $587.70 an ounce. Silver was losing 44 cents to $11.20 an ounce.

After the close of trading Monday, chipmaker Marvell (MRVL:) said its third-quarter revenue will be lower than expected and indicated that it will restate its past financial results because of discrepancies in its prior stock-option grants. Still, shares were adding 2 cents, or 3.1%, to 67 cents.

Those developments sent the shares sliding nearly 14% to $16.42, putting the stock below its 52-week low.

Also providing a forecast was bankrupt carrier Northwest Airlines (NWACQ:) , which said it should have a modest profit for the full year despite a softening in revenue since September and an expected loss for the last four months of 2006.

Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG:) posted a third-quarter profit of $207 million, or 86 cents a share, up 1% from last year. Results included a 4-cent-a-share loss from stock-based compensation and a 5-cents-a-share gain from changes to its taxes. Revenue rose to $3.46 billion, up 7.7% from a year ago.

The Thomson First Call consensus was for EPS of 81 cents on revenue of $3.41 billion. However, Pepsi Bottling was dropping $2.10, or 6%, to $33.13 on weak guidance and a downgrade by Deutsche Bank.

The phone-record snooping scandal at Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:) had CEO Mark Hurd in the headlines again, this time in the form a Wall Street Journal report that said he might have known about the program being used to plug boardroom leaks as early as July 2005.

However, citing a memo from an outside law firm, the report said Hurd doesn''t appear to have known that H-P investigators were using potentially illegal techniques. H-P was recently losing 41 cents, or 1.1%, to $37.25.

Retailers began posting same-store sales results for September. Walgreen (WAG:) said comp sales rose 8.5% in September, while Kohl''s (KSS:) said same-store sales were up 16% for the month.

Kohl''s also raised its third-quarter earnings estimate to a range between 56 cents and 59 cents a share. Currently, the average estimate stands at 56 cents a share. Kohl''s was recently higher by 75 cents, or 1.2%, to $66.24.

Department store chain Federated (FD:) said it has completed the sale of its Lord & Taylor division to NRDC Equity Partners for the final adjusted sale price of $1.08 billion, down from the initial sale price of $1.2 billion. Federated was falling by 21 cents, or 0.5%, to $42.93.

On the research front, Credit Suisse upgraded RF Micro Devices (RFMD:) to outperform from neutral and lifted Skyworks (SWKS:) to neutral from underperform. Stifel Nicolaus also raised its rating on Skyworks.

Overseas, Europe''s equities were falling. London''s FTSE 100 was losing 0.4% to 5937, and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX eased 0.1% to 5992. Asia''s shares were mixed, with Tokyo''s Nikkei ending off 0.1% to 16,242 and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng higher by 0.4% to 17,606.

Dow Continues Historic Run...... 8)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rewrite the record book, hitting a new all-time intraday high Thursday and crossing above 11,900 for the first time ever.

Lately, the Dow was gaining 70 points, or 0.6%, to 11,922. The index touched a fresh intraday record high of 11,934.73 earlier in the session. Of the 30 stocks on the index, 22 were up and eight were down.

Bear trap!
There has never been a market that can sustain a vertical move like this one. All of them crushed their investors when they least expected it.

Bears are now in hibernation! Meanwhile the Dow is heading for a breakout at 11,955. Target 12,328. Stop 11,824.

One incredible statement........ :D..... :-\..... :-X...... ::)....... :o


CHUCK JAFFE
Dow 116,200
It'll be there -- in 2040 -- if historic returns hold
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:05 AM ET Oct 11, 2006


BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- As the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirted with 12,000 last week, it reminded me of my all-time favorite expert market prediction. It was made in the fall of 1995, as the Dow was first approaching the 5,000 mark, by the late Bill Berger, the legendary investor who started the now-extinct Berger family of mutual funds.
At the time, investors were concerned that 5,000 would be a big psychological barrier and that the market could not handle the prosperity of that level without some significant setback.
   
   
Berger, a gentle giant of a man with an impish sense of humor, said he could not predict precisely what would happen when the magic 5,000 line was crossed, but said that he was fairly positive that the Dow would hit 116,200 in the year 2040.
The logic was simple: a Dow (DJIA : Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 11,960.51+12.81+0.11%

4:30pm 10/13/2006

11,960.51, +12.81, +0.1%) move to 116,200 over 45 years would be the same rate of growth he had seen as the Dow moved from 200 to 4,800 in his first 45 years as an investor.
Five years later, the Dow was in five-digit territory when the bear market arrived and threw investors for a loop.
Even as the Dow was stretching toward record highs this week, much bigger, broader indices remain well below their peak levels. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 is down 9% from its record level, with the Standard & Poor's 500 off 12% and the Nasdaq more than 50% removed from its all-time high.
It has been almost 11 years to the week since Berger made his forecast and a six-figure Dow would seem even more unlikely today than it did to an audience that was laughing at the man back then. Run the numbers, however, and it's not so silly. In spite of the bear market, the Dow actually is ahead of the pace needed for Berger's prediction to come true.
For the Dow to move from 4,800 in October of 1995 to 116,200 in October of 2040 would require an average annualized gain of roughly 7.3%.
By moving to within the shadow of 12,000 in 11 years, the Dow has posted an annualized average gain of roughly 8.6%. Moving from where the benchmark stands today to the 116,200 number over the next 34 years will require a gain of 6.7%, well below the Dow's annualized average return over time.
No big deal
The Dow may be the most quoted and recognized stock-market benchmark, but it is also one of the least useful. It's 30 component stocks represent less than 25% of the value of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 and less than one-third of the S&P. It's not a great indicator for the broad market -- and hasn't been used as such by anyone in the industry for years now -- as it represents mostly the biggest of the big stocks.
If anything, news that the Dow is near a record high is confirmation of what many market analysts have been expecting to see, namely a rally among large-cap stocks.
Look more closely, however, and even that conclusion is still a bit hard to draw. The Dow is a price-weighted index, meaning that gains in its highest-priced stocks will have the greatest impact; that allows the index to reach new highs even when most stocks in the index are not at peak levels. More than two-thirds of the Dow stocks are below all-time highs and more than half of the Dow components are still off 20% -- and as much as 70% -- from their pre-bear-market tops.
And the news that the Dow is ahead of schedule for Berger's big goal may not be quite as good as it seems. Last week, a Washington think tank called The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noted that if the Dow is adjusted for inflation, it's still down 17% from its all-time high.
Ultimately, the Dow continues to holds its place of high esteem mostly because it's the brand name that average investors recognize. Investors shouldn't get too amped up or turned down based on its daily fluctuations, new highs or temporary lows. If the broad market is going in a long-term direction -- and until making his unique call on the Dow, Berger always said his long-term forecast always was "Up" -- the Dow will go with it.
But more than a decade after Berger's initial projection, his principal point still holds true: Buying high-quality, big-name stocks -- a small subgroup of a much larger market -- and holding onto them for long periods of time can be a solid underpinning of an investment portfolio, a steady and consistent part in the often-confusing task of building a nest egg.
The Dow's recent history also underscores the importance of diversifying a portfolio. For the last 20 years of the 20th century, investors came to learn that the stocks of big companies were the only sure ticket to a rich future. Berger's prediction came in the 13th year of an epic run; he didn't suggest the run would continue forever -- in fact he predicted a return to more historic norms -- but was making the point that investors would not need eons of enormous gains for the Dow to make huge progress.
Since the peak of the market, investors in the Dow have clearly learned that exposure to value stocks, small-cap stocks and international issues would have rounded out that base portfolio of mega-stocks, making for a smoother outcome and a healthier investment outlook.
Chances are that by the time 2040 rolls around, everyone but me will have forgotten Berger's unusual call. Increasingly, however, it looks like the people who heeded his call will get to 2040 feeling pretty good about their core investment decisions. 
Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in dozens of U.S. newspapers.

 

Interesting article......

The first part of this article is interesting. It looks at the current rally in terms of sentiment and momentum and compares to the 1997 crash. Because the S&P has rallied to new highs compared to a lower high in 1987 I think the comparison is flawed, but it's still interesting.


Link...... http://equitrend.com/equinews.aspx?week=mZCq3BRvphA=

I'm wearing my party hat........ ;) :D ;D




Dow Fights to maintain gains..............


The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above the 12,000 mark for the second consecutive session Thursday, but once again it was struggling to hold that level.

After bouncing around the break-even line, the Dow was recently up 9 points at 12,001. The S&P 500 was fractionally lower at 1365, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 3 points, or 0.1%, at 2334.

On Wednesday, the Dow hit an intraday record high of 12,049.51 before pulling back to settle up 42.66 points at 11,992.68, its eighth record close in the past two weeks.

"While the longer-term trend remains up, yesterday''s trading is a sharp warning," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "Yesterday began with an upside burst. The failure of that burst to carry forward was not surprising, but the tepid afternoon rally that couldn''t rise above even the bounce high is worrisome."

Earnings continue to arrive at a furious pace, with results from both tech names and old-economy stocks arriving in force.

After the close of the prior session, Apple (AAPL:) posted fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $546 million, or 62 cents a share, up 27% from the same quarter a year ago. Revenue surged to $4.84 billion from $3.68 billion last year. Results handily beat estimates, sending shares of Apple higher by $4.48, or 6%, to $79.01.

eBay (EBAY:) also opened higher after the Internet auctioneer posted a third-quarter profit of $280.9 million, or 20 cents a share, up 10% from a year earlier. Sales and adjusted earnings topped estimates. eBay was recently gaining $2.09, or 7.3%, to $30.58.

To view Farnoosh Torabi''s video take on today''s premarket action, click here.

On the other hand, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) dropped more than 11% after posting a significant decline in margins. Third-quarter earnings came in at $134 million, or 27 cents a share, up 76% from a year ago. AMD was down $2.73 to $21.50.

As a new day unfolded, several Dow components rolled out their numbers. McDonald''s (MCD:) said it had third-quarter earnings of $843.3 million, or 68 cents a share, meeting expectations. Revenue rose 10% to $5.8 billion. McDonald''s was sliding 62 cents, or 1.5%, to $40.85.

Pfizer (PFE:) posted third-quarter net income of $3.36 billion, or 46 cents a share, more than doubling the year-ago results. On a continuing operations basis, the drugmaker earned 44 cents, a penny short of estimates. However, revenue of $12.28 billion in the quarter beat expectations.

After announcing it will buy back up to $10 billion in shares next year, Pfizer warned that revenue levels for the next two years would be equal to that of 2006. Shares were off 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $28.01.

Shares of Coca-Cola (KO:) were up 2.3% after the company reported third-quarter net income that exceeded the Thomson First Call forecast by 3 cents a share. Coca-Cola was recently higher by $1.01 to $44.97.

Meanwhile, Citigroup (C:) was off 1.1% after posting a 23% decline in third-quarter earnings. Though earnings from continuing operations beat the Thomson First Call average estimate, third-quarter revenue missed targets. The stock was losing 56 cents to $49.63.

Honeywell (HON:) was also trading lower after the company said it had third-quarter earnings of $541 million, or 66 cents a share, up more than 16% from the same quarter last year. The company''s profits and sales were ahead of estimates, but the industrial giant cautioned of lower economic growth next year. Honeywell was off 98 cents, or 2.3%, to $41.65.

At Nokia (NOK:) , sales were better than expected, but profits were a bit light, while Ericsson''s (ERIC:) revenue rose 12% in the latest quarter.

Outside of earnings, crude futures were higher as OPEC convened in Qatar. The oil-exporting group is expected to cut output in order to halt the recent tumble in prices. Recently, oil was gaining 85 cents at $58.50 a barrel.

The economic docket was sparse, but in one report the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 299,000 last week. Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the leading economic indicators for September rose 0.1%, shy of expectations for a 0.3% increase.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve''s manufacturing index for October was weaker than expected for a second month, coming in at negative 0.7 vs. the forecast of positive 6.5. The number is based on a survey and is calculated by taking the difference in the percentage of respondents who report business improving and those who see it declining.

Overseas, European indices were little changed. London''s FTSE 100 added 0.1% to 6156, and Germany''s Xetra DAX was off 0.1% at 6177. Stocks fell in Asia, as Japan''s Nikkei finished 0.6% lower at 16,551 and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng was down 0.3% to 17,987.

Dow Extends Record Climb

10/23/2006 3:39 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another milestone Monday as Wall Street headed higher following a slew of earnings reports from Old Economy companies.

After opening to the downside, the Dow was surging 108 points, or 0.9%, to 12,110. The index reached a new intraday record high of 12,125.16 earlier in the session. Components Wal-Mart (WMT:) , General Motors (GM:) , 3M (MMM:) and Caterpillar (CAT:) were leading the charge with gains of 2% or more.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 was up 7 points, or 0.5%, at 1376, and the Nasdaq Composite was higher by 12 points, or 0.5%, to 2354.

"We''re overbought but we keep going higher," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "Earnings are coming in nicely, as we''re looking at 15% growth, so the momentum is taking the market wherever the bulls want it to go. We may also be seeing money coming in from overseas fueling this move."

The strength comes after stocks closed narrowly mixed Friday, when a selloff in Caterpillar kept the bulls from celebrating Google''s (GOOG:) huge quarter.

"More earnings this week and a Federal Reserve meeting are likely to dominate trader attention," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "Longer-term traders may continue to sit back and enjoy the rally as the number of New York Stock Exchange stocks reaching 52-week new highs rose for the fourth straight week."

As the new week got started, earnings reports were rolling in. Among them was Ford (F:) , which reported a third-quarter loss of $5.8 billion, or $3.08 a share, and said it would restate its results back to 2001. Excluding items, the automaker had a loss from continuing operations of $1.2 billion, or 62 cents a share. Ford was falling 11 cents, or 1.4%, to $7.90.

Halliburton (HAL:) earned $615 million, or 58 cents a share, from continuing operations for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from the year-ago''s $492 million, or 49 cents a share. Sales rose 19% from last year to $5.8 billion.

Analysts were looking for a 54-cent profit on sales of $5.54 billion. Halliburton was recently gaining 18 cents, or 0.6%, to $28.96.

Dow component AT&T (T:) posted a third-quarter profit of $2.17 billion, or 56 cents a share, up 74% from the same quarter last year. Excluding items, the company had adjusted earnings of 63 cents a share. Analysts expected the telecom giant to report EPS of 58 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call. AT&T reversed early weakness and was recently adding 26 cents, or 0.8%, to $34.70.

Toymaker Hasbro (HAS:) had a profit of $100 million, or 58 cents a share, for the quarter ended Oct. 1, compared with last year''s $92 million, or 47 cents a share. Sales rose to $1.04 billion from $988 million a year earlier. Sales and earnings topped estimates. Hasbro was higher by $2.26, or 9.7%, to $25.56.

American Express (AXP:) posted third-quarter earnings of $967 million, or 80 cents a share, down 6% from a year ago. Excluding items, the company earned 78 cents a share, beating estimates by 2 cents. Still, the stock was tumbling $1.18, or 2%, to $56.86.

After the closing bell, Texas Instruments (TXN:) will also release third-quarter results. Shares were up 1.2% to $31.75 ahead of the report.

IBM (IBM:) said it is suing Amazon.com (AMZN:) for infringing on some of its patents. The computer maker alleges that Amazon has illegally built its online retail store on technologies that IBM developed. Shares of IBM were gaining 1.3% to $91.61, and Amazon was unchanged at $32.74.

Outside of stocks, traders are bracing for the next interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Members of the policy making Federal Open Market Committee are gathering for the first day of a two-day meeting Tuesday, with their rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures continue to price in virtual certainty that policymakers will hold the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%.

Crude prices traded lower, as the newly benchmarked December contract extended Friday''s decline. Oil fell 52 cents to end the session at $58.81 a barrel. Gold dropped $13.50 to close at $582.90 an ounce, and silver lost 30 cents to $11.67 an ounce.

Overseas, European indices were moving higher, and stocks were mixed in Asia.

Dow Makes History Again...................


After an uneven session marked by a deluge of earnings, a spike in oil prices and no surprises on the rate front, Wall Street ended slightly higher Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose only 6.80 points, or 0.06%, to 12,134.68, yet that was enough for another record closing high. The index had been lower by as many as 43 points earlier, pressured by a decline in General Motors (GM:NYSE) .

The S&P 500 added 4.84 points, or 0.35%, to 1382.22, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 11.75 points, or 0.5%, to 2356.59. Big gainers included Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) .

Volume improved from Tuesday''s levels. About 2.96 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq was roughly 2.15 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 9 to 7.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its federal funds target unchanged at 5.25% for the third straight meeting, an outcome that had been widely anticipated.

"The Fed didn''t do anything out of the ordinary and the statement was balanced," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "Everything stays in play. We got what we expected, and the market likes that."

The FOMC said in its policy statement that recent indicators showed "economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market." Looking forward, the Fed said "the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace."

To view the latest market video, click here

However, "inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand," the statement said.

The FOMC reiterated its views on the possibility of further hikes, and for the third straight time, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker registered a dissenting vote, saying he preferred a rate increase of 25 basis points.

Following the announcement, the 10-year Treasury bond was up 13/32 in price to yield 4.76%. The dollar fell against the yen and euro.

In other economic news, the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales fell a greater-than-expected 1.9% to 6.18 million annualized units in September, giving the Fed further evidence regarding the slowdown in the housing market. Economists expected that sales would only fall to 6.25 million annualized units from 6.30 million in the previous month.

"High and rising inventory is killing prices," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "In September, the month''s supply was unchanged, but this is not good news. Supply usually falls in September, so, seasonally adjusted, the inventory picture is getting worse."

Oil prices jumped above $61 a barrel after the Energy Department posted its weekly inventory report. Crude stocks unexpectedly fell by 3.3 million barrels last week. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories dropped by 2.8 million barrels and distillates fell by 1.4 million barrels.

The December crude contract surged $2.05 to close at $61.40 a barrel. Gold futures reversed early weakness and were higher by $3.20 to $590.80 an ounce, and silver was up 4 cents to close at $11.89 an ounce.

As for earnings, GM posted a third-quarter loss of $115 million, or 20 cents a share, compared with a loss of $1.7 billion, or $2.94 a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue rose to $48.8 billion from $47.2 billion a year ago.

Excluding items related to the company''s restructuring, GM said it had adjusted earnings of 93 cents a share, well ahead of the consensus profit estimate of 49 cents. At the same time, the Dow component significantly narrowed the range of its potential liability related to Delphi''s (DPHIQ:) bankruptcy filing. Still, shares of GM finished lower by $1.48, or 4.1%, to $34.71.

Meanwhile, rival Ford (F:NYSE) ended higher by 2.3%, and DaimlerChrysler (DCX:NYSE) rose 4.5% after its quarterly report.

Dow member Boeing (BA:) reported third-quarter earnings of $694 million, or 89 cents a share, down 31% from the year-ago period. Excluding charges, the airplane maker earned $1.11 in the quarter. Revenue rose 19% to $14.74 billion. Shares of Boeing dropped $2.73, or 3.3%, to close at $80.86.

Meanwhile, Altria (MO:NYSE) lifted its profit forecast for 2006, but its earnings for the third-quarter were a bit short of Wall Street''s expectations. For the full year, Altria is projecting earnings from continuing operations of $5.48 to $5.53 a share, up from a previous range of $5.40 to $5.50. On average, analysts are looking for $5.31. Altria gained $2.28, or 2.9%, to $82.10.

After the previous session''s close, Amazon.com was there to support the bull case, beating earnings estimates and offering an optimistic forecast. Shares of the online bookseller surged 12%, up $4.05 to close at $37.68.

Dozens of other companies were on the schedule to post their quarterly results, and among them, RadioShack (RSH:) swung to a loss, while Monster (MNST:) was mainly in line.

Overseas markets were mostly higher, with London''s FTSE 100 adding 0.5% to 6214 and Germany''s Xetra DAX rising 0.3% to 6265. In Asia, Japan''s Nikkei fell 0.5% overnight to 16,699, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng edged higher by 0.1% to 18,157.

Thursday will bring another busy day of earnings. Reports are expected from Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE) , Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) , Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:NYSE) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW:Nasdaq) , among others.

Stocks Perk Up as Oil Drops



Stocks overcame a scare caused by a steep drop in new-home prices and headed higher as crude futures sold off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10 points, or 0.1%, to 12,144, having been down nearly 40 points earlier in the session. Among its components, Boeing (BA:NYSE) was losing 2.3%, while Disney (DIS:NYSE) was higher by 2.2%.

The S&P 500 was adding 5 points, or 0.4%, to 1387, having also reversed early losses. The Nasdaq Composite was gaining 16 points, or 0.7%, at 2372.

U.S. equities were having a back-and-forth session following several economic releases. The Commerce Department said that even as new-home sales rose 5.3% in September, the median sales price plummeted 9.7% from August, the biggest drop since 1970.

Economists anticipated no change from the previous month''s 1.05 million new-homes pace. Instead, they got an increase to an annualized rate of 1.075 million. On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales fell 1.9% in September.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, described the falloff in prices as startling. "Pressure on prices is, therefore, still down, and falling prices deter buyers," he said.

The seesaw movement on the major indices highlights the fickle nature of the market. Just a day before, the Federal Reserve''s decision to again keep rates steady in the absence of overwhelming evidence of inflation helped stocks close slightly higher.


For several months, economic reports that show modest growth, or in some cases outright slowdowns, have been welcomed on Wall Street because they improve the chances the Fed will stop tightening. However, when data have been overly weak, as was the case with housing prices, bulls have gone into hiding.

But as can happen, a slide in oil prices was providing buyers with a reason to move back in.

The December crude contract ended down $1.04, to $60.34 a barrel, reversing the prior session''s rise that put prices above the $61 mark. As for other commodities, gold futures Added $9, to $599.80 an ounce, and silver was up 35 cents at $12.24 an ounce.

Also on the economic docket, the government said durable-goods orders rose a greater-than-expected 7.8% in September. Economists thought orders would rise 2.3% after a revised 0.1% dip in August. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1%. The headline number was boosted by a 42% advance in defense capital goods.

Additionally, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 308,000 last week. The less volatile four-week moving average of claims fell by 2,750 to 305,250.

"There''s competing economic numbers today," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "Investors are looking at where the strength of the economy is. There''s a bit of uncertainty about the economy that''s resonating into stocks."

After the economic data were released, the 10-year Treasury was up 12/32 in price to yield 4.72%. The dollar fell against the yen and euro.

Earnings were again arriving at a brisk pace. Sprint (S:NYSE) missed analysts'' third-quarter earnings estimates, but revenue of $10.5 billion was a little better than expected. Sprint was adding $1.16, or 6.6%, to $18.88.

Dow member Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE) posted third-quarter earnings of $10.49 billion, or $1.77 a share, up from $9.92 billion, or $1.58 a share, last year. The Thomson First Call average estimate was for a profit of $1.59 a share in the September period. Revenue dipped to $99.59 billion from $100.72 billion a year ago. Exxon was rising by 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.34.

Wendy''s (WEN:NYSE) posted third-quarter earnings of $72 million, or 61 cents a share, nearly unchanged from the year-ago results. Revenue rose 2.5% to $623 million from last year. The Thomson First Call average forecast was for earnings of 64 cents. Wendy''s was tacking on 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $35.64.

Cereal maker Kellogg (K:NYSE) posted third-quarter net income of $281.1 million, or 70 cents a share, up 3% from the same quarter last year. Quarterly sales rose to $2.82 billion from $2.62 billion a year ago. Wall Street expected earnings of 65 cents a share on sales of $2.76 billion. Kellogg also raised its full-year guidance, and shares were up 87 cents, or 1.8%, to $50.51.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:NYSE) said third-quarter earnings dropped to $338 million, or 17 cents a share, down 65% from the year-ago quarter. However, Bristol-Myers reported adjusted earnings of 22 cents a share, beating the consensus for EPS of 20 cents. The stock was recently up 9 cents, or 0.4%, at $24.75.

Insurance giant Aetna (AET:NYSE) topped third-quarter consensus earnings expectations and raised its 2007 guidance, while Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE) exceeded estimates and disclosed plans for a $2 billion stock buyback.

Following the close of trading, software standard-bearer Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) will post its quarterly results.

European markets were mixed, with London''s FTSE 100 losing 0.5% to 6185 and Germany''s Xetra DAX rising 0.3% to 6284. In Asia, Japan''s Nikkei rose 0.7% overnight to 16,812, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng jumped 1.1% to 18.353.

The Chart.....

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
1.45%above 13-day MA
4.13%above 50-day MA

Merger Frenzy Lifts Market




U.S. markets started the week on a high note Monday as traders used a spurt in dealmaking to put the sluggishness of recent sessions behind them.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 119.51 points, or 1%, to 12,105.55, and the S&P 500 was up 15.48 points, or 1.1%, to 1379.78. The Nasdaq Composite gained 35.16 points, or 1.5%, to 2365.95.

Most sectors were in the green, led by a 4.2% gain in the Dow Jones U.S. Trucking index. The Amex Airline index was up 2.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index was higher by 1.8%. Gold and silver indices sat out the rally and declined about 1.2%.

As a new week unfolded, a spate of mergers brought in buyers. Among the tie-ups, Four Seasons (FS:) received a $3 billion takeover offer from a group that includes controlling shareholder Isadore Sharp, Microsoft (MSFT:) founder Bill Gates and Saudi Arabia''s Prince Alwaleed.

Four Seasons was up 29.2% to $82.50, easily setting a 52-week high.

Another acquisition will see Abbott Labs (ABT:NYSE) buy Kos Pharmaceuticals (KOSP:Nasdaq) for $78 a share in a $3.7 billion deal.

Kos surged 53.8% to $77.06, but Abbott ticked down 0.4% to $47.47.

Wall Street struggled last week amid a string of economic data that traders found unfriendly for stocks. On Friday, the Dow closed down 32.5 points to 11,986.04 -- its sixth straight decline and its first time ending below 12,000 since Oct. 18. For the week, the Dow lost 104 points, the S&P 500 shed 13 points, and the Nasdaq gave back 20 points. On a percentage basis, each index surrendered 0.9%.


But with mergers dominating the headlines, investors decided it was a good day to buy. OSI Restaurants (OSI:NYSE) , the owner of Outback Steakhouse, will be acquired by an investor group made up of its founders, Bain Capital Partners and others for $40 a share, and Swift Transportation (SWFT:Nasdaq) got a $29-a-share bid from former chairman Jerry Moyes, the company''s largest shareholder.

OSI climbed 22.6% to $39.75.

Elsewhere, buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts recently approached Vivendi about possibly acquiring the French media company, but talks have now ended.

Outside of the M&A arena, earnings, continued coming in, although the pace has slowed considerably. XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:Nasdaq) and Marvel Enterprises (MVL:NYSE) beat analysts'' estimates, while Northeast Utilities (NU:NYSE) affirmed its expectations.

XM was up 15.6%, and Marvel gained 5.8%.

Treasury prices edged higher, with the 10-year note rising 3/32 in price to yield 4.70%. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, and December crude futures rose 88 cents to $60.02 a barrel.

Overseas, stocks were higher across Europe. Asia was mixed. Equities were weak in Japan and Korea but stronger in Hong Kong and mainland China.

Bulls Win the Race..............



Stocks closed higher again Tuesday as the midterm elections and the possibility of a power change in Congress didn''t deter buyers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 51.22 points, or 0.42%, to 12,156.77, taking its two-day gain to 170 points following six straight declines. Nineteen of the Dow''s 30 components were in positive territory, led by a rise of 5.4% in Boeing (BA:) .

The S&P 500 was higher by 3.06 points, or 0.22%, to 1382.84, and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.93 points, or 0.42%, to 2375.88, boosted by gains of at least 4.8% in Altera (ALTR:) and Broadcom (BRCM:) .

"The market''s rise isn''t reflective of the election," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "The money just continues to pour into the equity market. There is a presumption that the earnings base of the market is still intact. I''m seeing some performance-chasing here, as well. It''s good to see the six consecutive down days on the Dow didn''t do any real damage."

About 2.73 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq was roughly 2.14 billion shares. Winners narrowly outpaced losers.

By sector, semiconductor stocks were the big winners of the session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index rose 1.9%. Housing stocks were among the hardest hit, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector index losing 0.7%.

With earnings winding down and the economic calendar bare, the focus of the new session was on the polls. Voters will be casting ballots on all 435 members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate and numerous governors and local officials.


Political pundits have for some time been predicting the Democrats would reclaim the House from Republican control for the first time since 1994 amid voter anger over the war in Iraq. However, in recent days, the GOP has been performing better in polls ahead of the election. The Senate is generally expected to remain in Republican hands.

On the corporate side, luxury-home builder Toll Brothers (TOL:) cut its 2007 forecast again, saying it now expects to deliver 6,300 to 7,300 houses next year. The company said fourth-quarter revenue dropped 10% from last year to $1.81 billion and was just short of the consensus estimate. Toll Brothers ended the session down by a penny at $28.04.

At Beazer Homes (BZH:) , fourth-quarter earnings were better than expected but the company cautioned that housing market fundamentals remain difficult. For the most recent quarter, Beazer earned $92 million, or $2.19 a share, down from $164 million, or $3.61 a share, a year ago. Revenue rose to $1.88 billion from $1.81 billion a year earlier. Beazer tacked on 13 cents, or 0.3%, to $42.07.

Nortel (NT:) posted a third-quarter loss of $99 million, or 2 cents a share, falling short of estimates. Nortel''s board also approved a reverse 1-for-10 stock split of its common shares, effective Dec. 1. Nortel fell by 26 cents, or 10.9%, to $2.13.

Sara Lee (SLE:) posted fiscal first-quarter earnings of $333 million, or 44 cents a share, up from $67 million, or 9 cents, a year ago. Earnings from continuing operations came to 34 cents a share, ahead of the Thomson First Call consensus of 25 cents a share. Shares gained 5 cents, or 0.3%, to $16.29.

Following the previous close, tax preparer H&R Block (HRB:) reduced its full-year profit forecast and said it hired Goldman Sachs to find a buyer for its Option One Mortgage unit. Block said Option One will close 12 branch offices in the next four months.

The company said it expects to make between $1.20 and $1.45 a share for the year ending April 30, down from the previous guidance for $1.60 to $1.85. H&R Block rose $1.39, or 6.4%, to $23.28.

Among analyst moves, Banc of America Securities downgraded Microsoft (MSFT:) to neutral from buy, citing the belief that earnings won''t begin outperforming expectations until 2008, rather than 2007. Still, Microsoft finished higher by 11 cents, or 0.4%, to $28.95.

Elsewhere, the benchmark 10-year note was up 10/32 in price to yield 4.66%. The dollar was slumping against the world''s other major currencies. Gold futures finished lower by 20 cents at $627.70, and crude oil futures dropped $1.09 to close at $58.93 a barrel.

Overseas, Europe''s equities moved higher. London''s FTSE 100 was up 0.3% to 6244, and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was rising by 0.5% to 6362. Asia''s shares also showed strength, after the Nikkei finished up 0.2% at 16,393.

Stocks Conquer Election Angst



Wall Street overcame morning selling pressure and closed to the upside Wednesday as traders shook off fears about the power shift in Congress.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to another all-time high, gaining 19.77 points, or 0.16%, to 12,176.54, after falling as many as 53 points earlier. The index, which beat the previous record close set on Oct. 26, was supported by gains of 1.3% in Altria (MO:) and Exxon Mobil (XOM:) .

As for the other indices, the S&P 500 was up 2.88 points, or 0.21%, at 1385.72, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 9.06 points, or 0.38%, to 2384.94.

"The reversal is pretty impressive," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "With the sense that maybe all that much won''t change, the market has an optimistic viewpoint for the next few months. We''ve now had a good couple of days, but we need some more guidance from the political standpoint."

About 2.88 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq was roughly 2.12 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

The market initially saw weakness a day after Democrats easily won control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 12 years, picking up at least 26 seats against Republicans in Tuesday''s midterm elections. Only 15 were needed for the Democrats to take a 218-seat majority.


In the Senate, a close race in Montana was determined by midday to have been won by the Democratic challenger, meaning five slots have transferred from the GOP to Democratic hands. A race in Virginia, which remains the deciding factor in the balance of power, is still too close to call.

With earnings winding down and the economic calendar bare, the focus of the trading session was on the election results.

"Investment implications have been bandied about. However, in the long run, the economy wins out, and on that score we continue to look rather slow," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "If not for a robust employment report, investors would be fretting about recession."

In addition to the Congressional moves, there also will be a change at the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will resign from his position, President Bush said. Former CIA chief Robert Gates will take Rumsfeld''s place.

By sector, oil stocks were the big winners of the session. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index finished higher by 2.2%, and the Amex Oil Index gained 1.4%. Airline stocks were among the hardest hit, with the Amex Airline Index losing 1.5%.

Before trading got underway, several earnings reports rolled in. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI:) narrowed its quarterly loss, and Barr Pharmaceuticals (BRL:) had strong profits, but sales were a little light. Sirius closed higher by 0.7% to $4.12, while Barr lost 3.6% to $49.79.

Among analyst moves, JPMorgan Chase upgraded Whole Foods Market (WFMI:) to overweight from neutral, boosting shares by 3.3% to $49.04. Through the previous five sessions, shares of Whole Foods had dropped 25.6% amid worries about its growth prospects.

Wachovia downgraded homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL:) to market perform from outperform, and Lehman Brothers cut Pulte Homes (PHM:) to equal-weight from overweight. Toll Brothers slumped by 1.9% to $27.50, and Pulte fell by 3.4% to close at $28.94.

Away from equities, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 7/32 in price to yield 4.63%. The dollar was slumping against the world''s other major currencies. Gold futures were down $9.40 to close at $618.30.

Elsewhere, the Energy Department released its latest data on weekly crude inventories. Oil stocks were up by 400,000 barrels. Gasoline stores were down by 600,000 barrels and distillate inventories dropped by 2.7 million barrels. Following the number, crude futures closed up 90 cents at $59.83 a barrel, nearly reversing the entire decline from the prior day.

Overseas, European markets were lower. London''s FTSE 100 was down 0.1% to 6239, and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was off 0.2% to 6349. Asia''s markets also showed weakness. The Nikkei dropped 1.1% at 16,216, and the Hang Seng fell 0.7% to 18,811.

On Thursday, earnings reports are expected from Disney (DIS:) , JCPenney (JCP:) , Kohl''s (KSS:) , Nvidia (NVDA:) and Viacom (VIA:) .

Dow Runs to New Record.......



Stocks enjoyed a solidly higher session Wednesday, albeit amid somewhat light trading action, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a new record close.

The Dow was strong all day and finished ahead by 102.94 points, or 0.8%, at 12,510.57, driven by gains of more than 2% in Alcoa (AA:NYSE) , Citigroup (C:NYSE) and General Motors (GM:NYSE) .

Also picking up ground were the S&P 500, rising 9.94 points, or 0.7%, to 1426.84, and the Nasdaq Composite, which collected 17.71 points, or 0.7%, to 2431.22.

Only one of the 30 industrials, United Technologies (UTX:NYSE) , faltered.

U.S. stocks began the holiday-shortened week in an upbeat manner Tuesday, as the major averages advanced throughout the session and closed higher. The Dow rose 64.41 points to 12,407.63, and the S&P 500 climbed 6.14 points to 1416.90. The Nasdaq tacked on 12.33 points to 2413.51.

For both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, the past two days have been marked by fairly low volume. About 1.50 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE, and 1.26 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. Winners beat losers roughly 7 to 3.

Two days remain in 2006 for Wall Street. However, though the NYSE hasn''t announced its plans, trading could potentially be canceled one day this week because of the death of former President Gerald Ford.

The 38th U.S. president died at the age of 93, and the Big Board has a tradition of closing on the nationally recognized day of mourning following the passing of a president.

Turning to the economy, the government said new homes were sold at an annual rate of 1.047 million in November, up a bit from the pace of right at 1 million in October. The pickup in housing sales was better than the 1.02 million rate analysts had expected.

Energy prices were generally lower. A day after falling 2%, crude oil futures were down another 76 cents to $60.34 a barrel. Precious metals were higher, led by a gain of $3.40 in the price of gold to $630.30 an ounce.

Treasuries were sinking. The 10-year note was dropping 13/32 in price and yielding 4.65%, and the 30-year bond was down 23/32 and yielding 4.78%.

Big Year Ends With a Fizzle.......



Stocks closed the last trading day of 2006 near their session lows, but the modest selling pressure couldn't put a dent in what has been a very successful year overall for the bulls.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday at 12,463.15, down 38.37 points, or 0.31%. The S&P 500 was down 6.43 points, or 0.45%, at 1418.30, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 10.28 points, or 0.42%, to 2415.29.

Only seven of the Dow's 30 components escaped losses. JP Morgan Chase (JPM:) was the biggest decliner, finishing down 1.3%. Intel (INTC:) , the average's biggest loser this year with an 18% drop, was down 0.8% to $20.25.

The major indices started this holiday-shortened week on a high note, surging the first two sessions before edging lower on Wednesday.

During the previous day, the Dow slipped 9.05 points, or 0.07%, to 12,501.52. The S&P 500 lost 2.11 points, or 0.15%, to 1424.73, and the Nasdaq was off 5.65 points, or 0.23%, at 2425.57.

All told, the Dow jumped 120 points during the week, and the S&P 500 was higher by 7 points. The Nasdaq rose about 14 points. Volume was light to end the week, with 1.68 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners beat advancers by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.42 billion shares, with losers beating winners 3 to 2.

Traders can look back on this year as a successful one, as the Dow surged 16.3% and the S&P 500 advanced more than 13.6%. The Nasdaq was higher by 9.5% for the year.

As the session wrapped up, New York trading won't get under way again until next Wednesday. The market will be closed Monday for the New Year's holiday and Tuesday for the funeral of former President Gerald Ford.

By shutting Jan. 2, the Nasdaq and the NYSE will both be closed for four consecutive days for the first time since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

On the corporate side, Apple (AAPL:) remained in the news. The company filed its delayed quarterly report and admitted to falsifying documents on its stock options, but it said that none of its current executives knew about the issue and that CEO Steve Jobs didn't benefit financially.

Shares of Apple rose 4.9% to finish at $84.84. For the year, the stock gained roughly 18%.

Elsewhere, Delta (DALRQ:) reported a narrower loss for November than it had in the same month a year ago, and Marsh & McClennan (MMC:) is planning to unload its Putnam Investments unit for $3.9 billion, according to a published report.

Meanwhile, phone giant AT&T (T:) has offered regulators new concessions in a bid to get its merger with regional carrier BellSouth (BLS:) approved before the year ends. The deal is now valued around $85 billion.

Shares of AT&T added 25 cents, or 0.7%, to $35.75. BellSouth gained 31 cents, or 0.7%, to close at $47.11.

In the absence of any major economic release, Treasuries ticked lower. The benchmark 10-year lost 4/32 in price to yield 4.70% and the 30-year eased by 1/32, yielding 4.81%. The dollar was mixed against the world's major currencies.

Crude futures were higher in Nymex floor trading, extending the previous session's gain. The February contract added 52 cents to close at $61.05 a barrel. Gold rose $1.10 to $638 an ounce, while silver was off by a half-cent to $12.93 an ounce.

Overseas, the Tokyo Nikkei was unchanged at 17,225, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was lower by 0.2% at 19,965. London's FTSE was down 0.3% at 6220, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX eased 0.2% at 6596.

Apple Inspires Wall Street.......


Stocks steadied themselves after taking a tumble at the open, and by the end of trading Wednesday the major indices had finished with modest gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25.56 points, or 0.21%, to 12,442.16, and the S&P 500 was up 2.74 points, or 0.19%, at 1414.85. The Nasdaq gained 15.50 points, or 0.63%, at 2459.33.

A 4.8% rise in Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) , which continued to hit record highs a day after CEO Steve Jobs unveiled an all-in-one phone and iPod device, supported the Nasdaq''s advance. Apple jumped $4.43 to $97.

Volume remained strong, with 2.68 billion shares changing hands at the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.29 billion shares traded. Losers matched winners.

New York stocks have had rocky sessions all week. On Tuesday, the action in the oil market flummoxed investors, and the first corporate earnings began to appear. At the end of it all, the Dow had slipped 6.89 points, or 0.06%, to 12,416.60, and the Nasdaq had gained 5.63 points, or 0.23%, to 2443.83.

During the prior day, crude plunged more than $2 a barrel at one point before recovering most of the loss. Sellers were back again, though, and the February contract dropped $1.62 to close at $54.02 a barrel.

According to the Energy Department''s weekly inventory report, crude stores fell by a greater-than-expected 5 million barrels last week. However, the drawdown wasn''t giving prices any support, as distillate supplies climbed by 5.4 million barrels and gasoline stocks rose 3.8 million barrels.

"The $55 level was broadly seen as key technical support," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "The warm-weather forecasts are certainly a part of the bearish pressure on crude, but there is more to it. Even with cold on the way, inventories are likely to stay strong through winter."

Lower oil prices have mixed effects. While good for consumers, which can help lift the overall stock market, falling crude tends to put pressure on shares of companies in the energy complex. That can lead the equities market lower.

Along with crude, most other energy contracts were weaker, as were precious metals. Gold futures eased $1.60 to close at $613.40 an ounce, and silver fell 15 cents to finish at $12.44 an ounce.

The Amex Oil Index lost 1.7%, and the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index dropped 1.3%. Meanwhile, chip stocks were again among the winners of the session, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index adding 1.8%.

The market also wrestled with comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow, who provided his economic outlook at a business luncheon in Iowa.

"My predominant concern remains the risks to the inflation outlook," said Moskow. "We''ve seen some welcome easing in inflation in the past couple of months, and I''m hopeful this development will continue. But there is still the risk that resource pressures or other factors, such as elevated inflation expectations, could prevent actual inflation from falling in a timely fashion."

On the corporate side, US Airways (LCC:) raised its bid for bankrupt airline Delta (DALRQ:) to $10.6 billion from around $8 billion. Delta has thus far said it wants to remain independent, but US Air has repeatedly indicated it planned to continue pursuing the offer.

Delta rose 10 cents, or 7.7%, to $1.40. US Airways finished higher by $1.03, or 1.8%, to $58.93.

Elsewhere, Chevron (CVX:) said fourth-quarter earnings would be hurt by lower commodity prices and reduced downstream margins. Chevron gave back $1.22, or 1.7%, to $69.41.

Staying with earnings, Alcoa (AA:) reported after the previous close, saying its profits and revenue for the fourth quarter topped analysts'' estimates. Alcoa jumped $1.71, or 6%, to $30.23 and was the Dow''s best performer. Genentech (DNA:NYSE) slipped 95 cents, or 1.1%, to close at $83.74 ahead of its quarterly results.

Shares of Guitar Center (GTRC:) slid 1.6% after the retailer said fourth-quarter income will miss its previously projected range of $1.14 to $1.20 a share. The Thomson First Call analysts'' consensus is for earnings of $1.16 a share. Guitar Center blamed the shortfall on weaker-than-expected sales. The stock ended down 67 cents to $42.58.

Sears Holdings (SHLD:Nasdaq) said it expects to make $4.87 to $5.39 a share for the fourth quarter ending this month, up from $4.03 a year ago. Analysts were looking for $4.86. Shares gained $5.86, or 3.5%, to $172.09.

Away from equities, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $58.2 billion in November, the lowest level since July 2005, from $58.9 billion in October. Economists expected the deficit to widen to $59.8 billion.

Treasuries eased following the data. The 10-year fell by 5/32, yielding 4.68%. The 30-year bond slipped 15/32 to lift the yield to 4.77%. The dollar was rallying against other major currencies.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei fell 1.7% to 16,942, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng sank 1.7% to 19,568. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 slid 0.6% to 6161. Germany''s Xetra DAX was off 0.7% to 6566.

Tech Stocks Lead Rally.......




Buyers were having their way on Wall Street Thursday, and the major indices were rallying, albeit down from earlier highs, led by the tech sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 82 points, or 0.7%, at 12,524, and the S&P 500 was adding 9 points, or 0.7%, at 1424. The Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 22 points, or 0.9% at 2482.

On the Dow, Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Honeywell (HON:NYSE) were higher by at least 1.8%.

Gains of 3.6% or more in eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and Level 3 (LVLT:Nasdaq) helped boost the Nasdaq.

"The bulls have a very good chance to break the market out on the upside, but the Dow, S&P and other important market averages are lagging well behind the Nasdaq," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "These averages need to catch up, which is another way of saying that the rally has been quite narrow so far and needs to broaden."

Crude oil prices turned lower in a choppy session, extending the recent downtrend. The February futures contract was recently down $1.75 to $52.27 a barrel. Through Wednesday''s close, crude prices had fallen 11.5% for the year.

The dollar was mixed against the world''s other major currencies. The news of the day in the foreign-exchange market was coming out of Europe, where the European Central Bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged but the Bank of England raised rates by a quarter point.

Both the euro and the pound fell against the greenback. Gold was up slightly, adding $2 to $615.40 an ounce.

Treasuries eased. The 10-year note was down 8/32 in price and yielding 4.72%, and the 30-year bond was off 15/32 and yielding 4.81%.

The Federal Reserve was in the news again, this time to announce that Boston Fed President Cathy Minehan will be retiring. Minehan was to be a voting member of the FOMC in 2007 beginning in January.

On the corporate side, several firms raised their stock price targets for Genentech (DNA:NYSE) after the biotech company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $594 million, or 55 cents a share, up 75% from a year ago.

Excluding items, Genentech earned 61 cents a share, beating the consensus by a nickel. Shares were adding 4.4% to $87.45.

Analysts also had positive comments on Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) , where Goldman raised its price target and revenue forecast, and Banc of America reiterated a buy rating on the stock.

BofA also affirmed its opinion that Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) is a buy.

Elsewhere in the tech space, Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) is suing Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) , saying it infringed on Cisco''s trademark for the iPhone name.

On Tuesday, Apple CEO Steve Jobs unveiled the company''s own iPhone, a name that Cisco has owned since acquiring Infogear in 2000. Shares of Apple, up 14% this week, were recently down 82 cents, or 0.9%, to $96.18.

Altria (MO:NYSE) shares reached an all-time high of $90.50 after UBS raised its price target to $94 from $81. Altria was recently up $1.07, or 1.2%, to $90.26.

In M&A activity, Six Flags (SIX:NYSE) will sell seven of its theme parks to Parc 7F-Operations in a deal worth $312 million. The stock was higher by 47 cents, or 8.7%, to $5.90.

Turning to the economic docket, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell last week by a greater-than-expected 26,000 to 299,000. Economists expected a small decline to 320,000. The less volatile four-week moving average was lower by 1,750 to 314,750.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei fell 0.6% to 16,838, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng dropped 0.9% to 19,385. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 jumped 1.1% at 6230. Germany''s Xetra DAX was up 1.8% to 6687.

Bulls Back for More.......


1/12/2007


Stocks started sluggish amid tech sector warnings and higher oil prices, but a steady rally from late morning helped the major indices close higher again Friday.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it was another record finish, its 24th since October. The Dow gained 41.10 points, or 0.33%, to 12,556.08, and the S&P 500 added 6.91 points, or 0.49%, at 1430.73. The Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 17.97 points, or 0.72%, to 2502.82.

"We have another long weekend, so people have hit the exits early today," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "As we get to more earnings and economic numbers next week, the market will take its cue from there."

The market will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. observance.

All told, the Dow was higher for the week by 158 points, or 1.3%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, surged 69 points, or 2.8%.

Volume was strong to end the week, with 2.70 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.16 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

By sector, oil stocks were the big winners. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index jumped 2.8%, and the Amex Oil Index added 3.1%. Utility stocks were hit hardest, with the Philadelphia Utility Index slumping 0.8% and the Dow Jones Utilities Index finishing lower by 0.7%.

Technology led the market''s advance during the previous session, as the Nasdaq gained 25.52 points, or 1.04%, and the same happened again.

Even late warnings by SAP (SAP:) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) failed to keep the bulls stuck on the sidelines.

Software giant SAP slumped in Germany but rose 3.3% in U.S. trading despite its poor forecast. Rival Oracle (ORCL:) tacked on 0.6%. AMD dove 9.5% to close at $18.26 following its own disappointing numbers, but the overall market shrugged off the cautious comments.

Crude oil prices gained ground after a four-day drop that has seen the near-month futures contract fall to a 19-month low. OPEC announced it will consider an emergency meeting to discuss the recent drop in crude and ponder new production cuts. The group has already set plans to reduce output by 1.7 million barrels.

For the year, oil has fallen roughly 15%. February crude was stronger by $1.11 to close at $52.99 a barrel. Other energy contracts were higher, as well.

On the economic docket, the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.9% in December. Excluding autos, retail sales were higher by 1%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said retail sales "had been weak as the housing crunch depressed sales of appliances, but the combination of the plunge in gas prices and the holidays has generated a sudden surge, which we do not expect to last."

Separately, the government said U.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in November, above estimates. Elsewhere, the Labor Department said import prices increased 1.1% in December, above economists'' forecasts. Compared to a year ago, import prices have risen 2.5%. The increase was blamed on rising petroleum prices, which were up 4.8%, the largest gain in seven months.

Treasuries dropped following the data. The 10-year was falling by 10/32, yielding 4.77%, and the 30-year bond slid 20/32 to lift the yield to 4.86%.

The dollar eased against other major currencies. Meanwhile, gold jumped $13 to $626.90 an ounce, and silver surged by 42 cents at $12.88 an ounce.

Investors also welcomed a speech from Boston Federal Reserve President Cathy Minehan, who said that while inflation remains a challenge for the Fed to grapple with, price pressures may be easing. On Thursday, Minehan, who is set to become a voting member of the Fed''s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, announced her retirement.

Returning to corporate news, Cablevision Systems (CVC:) fell 4.1% after the Dolan family raised its final buyout offer to $9.8 billion in order to take the company private. Shares shed $1.21 to $28.39.

Among analyst moves, Banc of America Securities upped its price target for Apple (AAPL:) to $105 from $93 and raised IBM''s (IBM:) price target to $110 from $100.

Still, Apple was lower by $1.18, or 1.2%, to close at $94.62. IBM gained 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $99.28.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei rose 1.3% to 17,057, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng added 1.2% to 19,613. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 was up 0.1% to 6239. Germany''s Xetra DAX was higher by 0.3% to 6705.

New High for Dow Industrials....... ;D

1/16/2007


Stocks were sluggish for much of the session and closed narrowly mixed Tuesday, but for the Dow Jones Industrial Average it was another record finish.

The Dow rose 26.51 points, or 0.21%, to 12,582.59, thanks to gains of 1.5% or more in components IBM (IBM:) and DuPont (DD:) .

The S&P 500 added 1.17 points, or 0.08%, to 1431.90, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.04 points, or 0.2%, to 2497.78.

Volume was strong to start the abbreviated week, with 2.68 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.22 billion shares traded. Losers edged winners.

Wall Street is coming off a week in which the Dow gained 158 points, or 1.3%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq jumped 69 points, or 2.8%.

However, Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that many technical indicators "have deteriorated over the past couple of weeks as the major averages close at multiyear highs, indicating that forces pushing stocks higher are waning."

One of the top stories of last week was the downtrend in crude oil prices, and that decline spilled over as the new week began. February futures shed $1.78 to finish at $51.21. Other energy contracts were mixed.

"The decline in commodity prices has temporarily been halted as economic growth has shown some life," said Nolte. "However, whether the short-term rise is merely a correction in a larger declining pattern remains to be seen. The reaction of the markets to the normal winter conditions this week will be interesting to watch. Inventories still remain well above normal."

By sector, oil stocks were the big losers of the session. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index fell 0.9% and the Amex Oil Index slumped 1.5%. Transportation stocks were best performers, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumping 2.1% and the Nasdaq Transportation Index finishing higher by 1.1%.

On the corporate side, another disappointment came from the homebuilding sector, where Centex (CTX:) said writeoffs would lead to a third-quarter loss. Excluding items, Centex said its adjusted earnings will still probably miss analysts'' consensus forecast. The stock fell by $1.55, or 2.9%, to $51.61.

A number of notable analyst actions captured investor attention, including a double downgrade of networking giant Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) . Prudential cut its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight, and Banc of America lowered its rating to neutral from buy. Even so, BofA kept its $30 price target. Cisco lost 88 cents, or 3%, to $28.04.

Elsewhere on the research front, Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Motorola (MOT:NYSE) with a neutral rating, and JPMorgan upgraded Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq) and XM (XMSR:Nasdaq) to overweight from neutral.

Meanwhile, Banc of America downgraded XM to neutral from buy. Shares of XM finished 0.1% higher, while Sirius gained 1.2%.

Among early reporters, Symantec (SYMC:Nasdaq) cut its third-quarter earnings outlook, citing a weaker-than-expected performance by its data-center management business and higher deferrals than anticipated. The company also offered a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast. Symantec dropped $2.69, or 13.1%, to $17.79.

Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $2.18 billion, or 64 cents a share, up 13% from the year-ago quarter. Revenue jumped 11% to $9.4 billion. The Thomson First Call average estimate was for earnings of 64 cents a share on revenue of $8.96 billion. Wells Fargo added 72 cents, or 2%, to $36.23.

Elsewhere, TD Ameritrade (AMTD:Nasdaq) posted fiscal first-quarter earnings of $145.6 million, or 24 cents a share, surging 69% from last year. Revenue rose to $535.2 million from $277.3 million last year. Analysts were calling for earnings of 22 cents a share on revenue of $517 million. Shares were higher by 65 cents, or 3.8%, to finish at $18.

Away from equities, the New York Federal Reserve said its Empire State Index unexpectedly fell to a reading of 9.13 in January from a revised 22.2 in December. The index now sits at its lowest level since May 2005. Economists had expected the January reading to slip to 20.0.

"In short, a clear weakening, but it''s far from clear that there is any predictive power here," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "The Empire State survey has been persistently stronger than most other regional surveys and the national ISM manufacturing index over the past year or so, but this report goes some way towards closing the gap."

Treasuries were rising. The 10-year note was up 5/32 in price and yielding 4.75%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 7/32 to yield 4.84%.

The dollar was easing against the world''s major currencies. Gold eased $1 to close at $625.90 an ounce. Silver lost 25 cents to $12.62 an ounce.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei sank 1.5% to 17,091, while Hong Kong''s Hang Seng added 0.9% to 20,211. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 was down 0.8% to 6216. Germany''s Xetra DAX dipped 0.2% to 6717.


Below are the 6 Month, 1 Year and 3 Year Charts...

Early Weakness for Tech Sector.......


1/17/2007



Tech stocks were set for an early decline a day after Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) said it expected to continue feeling the effects of a price war with rival chipmaker AMD (AMD:NYSE) .

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 2.3 points at 1853.50 and were 3.5 points below fair value Wednesday. S&P 500 futures were up 1.6 points at 1440.30 and were 1.2 points ahead of fair value.

Following the prior session''s close, Intel said its fourth-quarter profit sank 39% year over year, but topped analysts'' estimates. Sales in the three months ended Dec. 30 totaled $9.7 billion, at the high end of the company''s guidance.

Shares of Intel fell 4% in early trading.

A decline in the chip giant can put pressure on both the broad tech sector and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, of which it''s a member.

During Tuesday''s action, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 5.04 points to 2497.78. The Dow, meanwhile, rose 26.51 points, or 0.21%, to 12,582.59, another record close. The S&P 500 added 1.17 points, or 0.08%, to 1431.90.

Among the companies reporting their results ahead of the new session, JPMorgan (JPM:NYSE) said fourth-quarter profits rose to $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share, from $2.70 billion, or 76 cents a share, last year. Earnings easily exceeded analysts'' expectations.

Elsewhere, homebuilder Lennar (LEN:NYSE) posted a quarterly loss, and earnings fell at Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE) .

Away from stocks, oil prices continued their downtrend, with the near-month futures contract falling below $51 a barrel. Lately, crude was down 23 cents at $50.98. Most other commodities were dropping as well.

Intel Takes Down Tech Sector.......

1/17/2007



A selloff in shares of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) dragged the tech sector lower Wednesday, while strength in energy and mining stocks minimized the losses for blue chips.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, coming off its latest record close, slipped 5.44 points, or 0.04%, to 12,577.15, and the S&P 500 gave back 1.28 points, or 0.09%, to 1430.62. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer of the major indices, dropping 18.36 points, or 0.74%, to 2479.42.

Volume was again strong, with 2.76 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers narrowly edged decliners. Nearly 2.34 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq, and losers outpaced winners 9 to 7.

After the prior session, Intel said its fourth-quarter profit sank 39% year over year but topped analysts'' estimates. Sales in the three months ended Dec. 30 totaled $9.7 billion, at the high end of the company's guidance.

However, what proved unsettling to investors was word from the chipmaker that its pricing battle with AMD (AMD:NYSE) isn't letting up. Shares of Intel slumped $1.26, or 5.7%, to $21.04.

Intel was the biggest drag on the Dow industrials, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index, of which it's also a component, lost 0.8%. On the plus side, the Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 0.6%, and the Amex Oil Index was up 1%.

Edgar Peters, chief investment officer with Pan Agora, said the market should take its future direction from economic data, not earnings releases.

"The problem is that earnings don't say much about the future," said Peters. "Those reports have already been priced in. Investors are worried about what the Federal Reserve will do. We could see a lot of sideways activity because of this."

Wall Street was somewhat hemmed in by the release of the Labor Department's producer price index for December. The headline index was up 0.9%, higher than expectations for an increase of about 0.5%.

The so-called core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, also ahead of expectations. The core rate rose 2% year over year.

The data swung the pendulum back toward the hawks in the debate about the Fed's next interest rate move. Policymakers have said incoming economic data are their primary focus in the run-up to the next two-day Fed meeting, which begins Jan. 30.

"The Fed looks to be on hold indefinitely," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "There hasn't been a deterioration of inflation that would make the Fed comfortable yet. The lower energy prices will certainly help the inflation story, but there currently isn't enough data for the Fed to believe inflation has come down far enough."

Separately, the central bank said that December industrial production rose 0.4%, above estimates for a 0.1% increase. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% to 81.8, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace between mid-November and December, according to the Fed's regional business survey known as the beige book. The report said most districts characterized growth as moderate. Labor market conditions tightened in a number of districts, while home and auto-related producers were a drag on manufacturing and sales.

During a speech Wednesday afternoon, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said that her view on inflation is more benign than worrisome because "inflationary pressure may be easing" because of lower oil prices.

Back to equities, JPMorgan (JPM:NYSE) said fourth-quarter profits rose to $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share, from $2.70 billion, or 76 cents a share, last year. Earnings easily exceeded analysts'' expectations. Shares edged higher by 4 cents, or 0.1%, at $48.43.

Fellow Dow component McDonald's (MCD:NYSE) was trading higher after the restaurant chain said it expects fourth-quarter earnings of 61 cents a share. The forecast is ahead of the Thomson First Call average estimate of 58 cents a share. McDonald's tacked on 29 cents, or 0.7%, at $44.86.

Elsewhere, homebuilder Lennar (LEN:NYSE) posted a quarterly loss, and earnings fell at Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE) .

This afternoon, Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) will report its latest numbers. Apple finished down $2.15, or 2.2%, at $94.95 ahead of the release.

Away from stocks, oil prices halted their downtrend ahead of Thursday's weekly inventory report, as the near-month futures bounced after falling below $50.50 a barrel. Crude finished the session higher by $1.03 at $52.24. Most other energy contracts also rebounded.

According to Bloomberg, crude inventories are expected to have eased by 900,000 barrels last week. Distillate supplies probably rose by 1.5 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are expected to have climbed by 2.5 million barrels. The Energy Department will release its report one day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.

Precious metals also gained ground. Gold added $7.40 to close at $633.30 an ounce, and silver was higher by 15 cents to $12.78 an ounce.

The benchmark 10-year note was down 6/32 in price, yielding 4.78%. The dollar fell against the world's major currencies.

Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei added 0.3% to 17,261, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.2% to 20,064. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.2% to 6204. Germany's Xetra DAX was easing 0.2% to 6701.

Hi All
I find it really interesting that oil is down and gold is going up!
Those two usually move in the same direction.....makes me think something big is up.

I read something about the new US troops being sent to Iraq are possibly for preventing a retaliation against Israel after they take out Iran's nuclear facilities. ING actually did an "Economic Impact" study on this.

I hope I'm all wet.

Peace
GMan

Yeah I share the same feeling... Something big is about to happen. I loaded up with AUY a few weeks ago so far im only slightly up but I expect gold to skyrocket if the conflict with Iran blows up into war. Oil will also skyrocket if such a event happens... the export of oil from Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait will be disrupted greatly. Right now I am long on AUY and holding some QID (ultra short QQQQ fund). The QID I am under about -6% but I believe we are near the top of the bull run and waiting for the next correction. If the nasdaq drops about 60 points from where it stands now I will be back in green on that position. I dont think the run in the Dow and Nasdaq has anymore steam left. INTC, DELL, GOOG, and even AAPL are showing technical weakness and are extremely overbought which will lead the nasdaq lower. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has not been able to break over the resistance in the 490s and go into the 500s, without this I doubt we will see the nasdaq climb much higher. The big money may be rotating the money out of tech and into safer more recession proof stocks (gold, utilites, etc.).

I think today's action in the Nasdaq will set a strong tone going forward.  If we close anywhere -0.2% below yesterday's close (and it looks that way currently) then I think a correction may start in the Nasdaq that will eventually be able to work its way to the other indices. 

Interesting.
Nice to hear how the technicals are reflecting the news.

I've recently joined Davids Premium service and have started buying his picks but I'm still holding all my precious metal stocks (NXG, SLW, ECPN, SDRG, PCFG, SWC, Natural Gas is where I have my energy investments and I like XSNX long term!
Setravis posted a really interesting article about an attack on the dollar - that's worth reading if you haven't already. I'm pretty sure that the US printing the RED $100 will be how they intend to purge N. Korean counterfiets.

Best
GMan

This is definately a turning point at least in the short term. I think we are going to move under the 50dma on the Nasdaq and settle around the low 2300s. The DOW is going to hold up better because its made up of less tech and more recession proof stocks. But eventually the Nasdaq is going to drag the other indices down like the DOW just like toyo has said. DELL, CSCO, INTC all have shot through their 50DMAs on strong bearish volume. AAPL and GOOG are about to breakdown below their 50dma as well, from the looks of it friday or next week we may see this play out. This is looking very bad for the Nasdaq in the short term. I think we are seeing big money exit tech in large amounts.

Quote from: nullzero on January 18, 2007, 02:09:04 PM
This is definately a turning point at least in the short term. I think we are going to move under the 50dma on the Nasdaq and settle around the low 2300s. The DOW is going to hold up better because its made up of less tech and more recession proof stocks. But eventually the Nasdaq is going to drag the other indices down like the DOW just like toyo has said. DELL, CSCO, INTC all have shot through their 50DMAs on strong bearish volume. AAPL and GOOG are about to breakdown below their 50dma as well, from the looks of it friday or next week we may see this play out. This is looking very bad for the Nasdaq in the short term. I think we are seeing big money exit tech in large amounts.

You are definitely right about the big money leaving Nullzero. 

The kind of volume we are seeing today doesnt happen unless institutions are selling.  I am almost all in cash after selling most my stocks this AM because I heard on CNBC that the move down was on higher volume, which was going to basically ensure 2 distribution days for the Nasdaq in a row, making it 3 distribution days in the last 4 weeks.  That coupled with Cramer talking about how tech stocks are weak at this time of the year made me feel it could well lead to a correction.  Didnt much enjoy getting caught in the last correction, dont want to experience that again!

I am considering buying some SLV or GLD here though...

Buy some AUY today Toyo you will be rewarded greatly soon I believe. It dropped today on no news for no reason, Its on discount right now. I think medical REITs are a good place to place money in for the long term.

Quote from: cumulina on January 18, 2007, 03:33:43 PM
Have you guys considered QID, SDS, DXD and MZZ?

Those are ProShares Ultra Short Funds, and they are geared.

Interesting picks cumulina, I hadnt thought of those.  Can you buy in without a margin account?  I mean, in essense you are still shorting if you buy these funds right, and could lose more than your initial investment, so I would assume you need a margin account? (I dont have one presently).

That QID did well today, but its funny to look at the chart, their fund started right when the market started to rally last summer, it looks like an inverse of the market since then sure enough!

QID is nice I have some :). Nice 3% gain today... I would stick to QID, shorting, and gold to play the market weakness. Interesting enough the $VIX index didnt have much movement today. However it is about to break through its 50dma and the chart is showing a reversal from its bottom. The QID is very close to breaking through the 50DMA today. Looking at all the charts and info I would say that we are seeing a big shift in directions now on the markets.

Perfect week for me to be taking a vacation (no computer and no cell in Costa Rica!)! :P LOL
Everything I've read seems to indicate that 07 should still be a decent year with a little US recession around the fringes. I'm going to keep holding David's picks (the undervaluation factor is too compelling).
Maybe they move sideways for the next few to 6 months and I'll sell some covered calls where I can. I'm going for the big swings.
If gold really jumps, I'll sell some of my more volatile/speculative stocks.

This has been lots of fun!
See you next week.
All the Best
GMan

Here is some chats and my take on some of the heavy weights in the nasdaq and in tech. Its not looking pretty atm.

AAPL-  High volume sell off close near the LOD. Chart is shows a strong chance of a break of the 50dma tomorrow or next week. Dissapointing foward guidance released yesterday.

CSCO- High volume sell off last three days and strong bearish break of the 50dma.

DELL- High volume sell off last few days and strong bearish break of the 50dma.

INTC- Very high volume sell off last 2 days and strong break of the 50dma. Bad fundamental news recently.

MSFT- Neutral on this one very little movement slightly down on average volume. I think this is one of the least risky of the tech stocks because lower growth is already expected at this stage of Micrsoft and also it has a nice sizable dividend.

YHOO- Average volume sell off last 3 days still at support at 28 about 1.00 above the 50DMA. YHOO is looking to be on the stronger side of the bunch, but a couple days of a sell off could change that and send YHOO breaking down below the 50dma.

GOOG- Average volume sell off last 3 days. GOOG is close to its 50dma, one or more trading sessions It may breakdown below it.

EBAY- High volume sell off last 2 days. Has been below the 50dma for a few weeks, bearish trend looks like it will continue.

AMZN- High volume sell off last 2 days. Has been below the 50dma for a few weeks, breaish trend looks like it will continue.

TXN- High volume sell off today. Unable to go above 50dma, drifting lower weak techincally. Today broke through strong support at 28.50 which is not a good sign techincally.

RIMM- High volume sell off today, Broke 50dma two days ago. Techincally RIMM looks very weak atm. I would expect it to test support at 115 soon.

HPQ- Average volume small sell off last 3 days. Neutral on this one unless a break of 41 occurs.

I could add several others to the list but I think we can clearly see a trend here and technical weakness across the board. It is only a short time from now I believe the nasdaq will be trading under the 50dma and below.

Here is the rest of the charts.

And finally the chart of the Nasdaq and DOW. Nasdaq sitting right above the 50dma looking bearish and the DOW is sitting above the 50dma by a comfortable amount.

Nice
Thanks
Check out this article I just received.
Looks like a big game of chicken is going on between the US and Iran.
Something big (geopolitically) might not happen after all.
Fear and Greed......
It's very interesting.
Best
GMan

Wow, Nullzero,  that chart on RIMM looks like a great short setup to me. What do you chartists think? Could it go back to $86 to fill the big gap left from late Sept? I think I might short RIMM at open tommorrow, have to study some more first. Any advice from the technicians?

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=RIMM&data=A&date=011807&den=MEDLO&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=C&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=013&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=021&argd=20&arge=50&argf=200&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk

It may very well be possible. I think with the increased competition in the cell phone industry and losing its competitive edge (use to be the only one with email on the go.) there is not much difference between a blackberry, samsung blackjack, or apple iphone. The only difference is the price, chassis, and interface. The technology all cellphones have like cameras, wifi, broadband internet, storage, etc. So I would say the cellphone industry should see profit margins shrink with increased competition. On the fundamental outlook I would short RIMM, with a P/E of 49 that is on the high side... AAPL has a trailing P/E of 39. Technically it doesnt look good for RIMM. 50 dma was recently broken on the downside. The 20 dma and 9 dma are heading to breakdown below the 50 dma (This is a good indicator of a bearish change in the stock, not to mention breaking the 50 dma is a clear bearish signal.) Also the bearish cross on the MACD and the change from positive to negative MACD territory. I would say 110 is a good bet and 80s could even be possible.

Thanks, Nullzero. I intend to short near the open.

Put a 7% stop loss in just incase. Looks like today RIMM is taking a breather on the downside atm. I think we are going to see the Nasdaq in red again soon however.

Nullzero, you ever check out Robert News' charts on the indices? Many pages, check it out.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936

Thanks, I havent seen that area before. It looks useful thanks for the link.

Just shorted some RIMM a minute ago. Shorted 100shrs @ 124.53 the second I spoted some intraday weakness on the QQQQ and RIMM slowing down on its small runup I shorted. The 9dma and 20dma are both going through the 50dma today on the weeky chart. More then likely we will see a continuation of the bearish trend for RIMM.

I thought this was the Major World Indices Board,  ???
and this was the Look at the DOW Thread. ???
Excuse me, but you guys turned this into your own personal short picks of stocks thread.You should have created a thread for this on The Personal Logs Board. Do that and I will move these post to that thread.

Yeah sorry about that got off topic there after I brought in the tech stock charts part of the nasdaq. I made a thread a while back called "Short Thread!" you can add the posts under there for RIMM. Have to get use to using PMs more often hehe thats why its there.

Anyway here is an updated chart of the DOW. Nothing much happened on the DOW today more of a neutral day however some interesting reaction to earnings news. GE reported nice earnings but got hit today for -%2.76. IBM also got hit for -3.3% from earnings news. Those two stocks were the two big ones dragging down the DOW today. While XOM, GM, and AA helped counter the losses. The DOW is still very much in a bullish uptrend channel. It will be interesting how the indies act next week they seem to be wanting to sell off on any news even good.

That Short Thread is located here.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6366.75
Go there to continue this discussion on short picks in stocks,
after all, This is "Look at the DOW thread"
Thanks

DOW is looking increasinly bearish. Market seems to have turned in the short term to medium term with the trend.

Blue Chips Stage Rally.......

1/23/2007


Gains in energy, mining and housing stocks helped the market overcome a slow start and rally to a higher close Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.64 points, or 0.45%, to 12,533.80, and the S&P 500 tacked on 5.04 points, or 0.35%, at 1427.99. The NASDAQ Composite eked out a gain of 0.34 points, or 0.01%, at 2431.41.

Roughly 3.03 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the NASDAQ topped 2.04 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

"The market is back in a trading range, or perhaps it never left," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "The S&P [has been] buoyed no doubt by this week's strength in energy shares. The longer-term rally remains intact."

Supporting the advance was a 4.7% climb in the Amex Gold Bugs index, a 2.9% rise in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index and a 2.4% gain in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Housing Sector index.

Commodities prices surged. The newly benchmarked March crude oil futures contract was up $2.46 at $55.04 a barrel. Natural gas gained 28 cents to $7.60 per million British thermal units.

Gold jumped $11.80 to close at $645.90 an ounce, and silver was up 26 cents at $13.26 an ounce.

Meanwhile, Wall Street had plenty of corporate earnings to digest, including several from Dow components.

Among them, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income of $2.17 billion, or 74 cents a share, up more than 13% from the year-earlier quarter. Before items, the health care giant earned 81 cents a share, beating the Thomson First Call average estimate. J&J slipped 68 cents, or 1%, to $66.50.

Elsewhere, United Technologies (UTX:NYSE) exceeded fourth-quarter estimates and reaffirmed its outlook for this year, while fellow industrial DuPont (DD:NYSE) met estimates. United Tech shares added 3.2%, while DuPont closed down 0.9%.

In the banking sector, Wachovia (WB:NYSE) saw fourth-quarter earnings rise 34% from a year ago, beating Wall Street estimates. Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income that jumped 47% and was also ahead of the Thomson First Call consensus.

Wachovia tacked on 0.7% to $56.65, and Bank of America dipped 0.6% to finish at $53.32.

As for those that disappointed, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU:NYSE) warned that it will miss analysts'' fourth-quarter sales estimates by a significant margin. The company expects to have revenue of around $5.02 billion, falling short of the consensus target by about $300 million. Alcatel tumbled 7.3% to $13.15.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE) said fiscal first-quarter earnings dropped to $109.7 million, or 35 cents a share, down 65% from a year ago. Still, results trumped the average estimate by 2 cents. Shares rose $1.24, or 4.6%, to close at $28.37.

Xerox (XRX:NYSE) said fourth-quarter income fell 24% from the year-ago quarter to $214 million. Excluding restructuring-related charges, the company earned 38 cents a share, beating estimates by a penny. Still, Xerox was off 17 cents, or 1%, at $16.53.

"The reports from the technology sector have been generally upbeat; however, comments regarding the future are much darker, taking many of the stocks lower," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "However, their impact has not been felt marketwide as would an employment report or a wider-than-normal inflation release. While the bulls and bears have been battling to gain the upper hand, the markets have frustrated both."

The economic docket was light for a second straight session. In the Day's only release, the Conference Board said that leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in December, above economists'' expectations of a 0.2% rise. However, October's number was revised down by 0.2% and November by 0.1%.

Treasuries were losing ground. The 10-year note was off 10/32 in price to yield 4.80%, and the 30-year bond was down 23/32, yielding 4.90%.

Overseas, European shares were mixed. The London FTSE 100 was higher by 0.2% at 6227, while the Frankfurt Xetra DAX was falling 0.1% to 6678. Asia's stocks eased overnight. Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.1% at 17,408, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 0.01% to 20,769.

Very nteresting article, "Trouble with the Transports"

http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/070123/opt_16551.html?.v=1

DXD (DOW 30 ultra short) looks good chart shows a bottom and a reversal it seems.

DOW got slammed yesterday and it looks like the trend to the downside may continue today. CAT may drag the DOW down with it if the earnings come in below expectations. Also the durable good numbers and new home sales may add to the downside if the market does not like what it sees.

Stocks End Rocky Week Mixed.......


1/26/2007



Wall Street closed mixed Friday as traders waded through the latest data on the economy, another string of corporate earnings and word that a blockbuster merger could be in the works in the financial sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded from its session lows and finished down 15.54 points, or 0.12%, at 12,487.02. Earlier, the Dow fell by as many as 70 points. The S&P 500 was off 1.72 points, or 0.12%, at 1422.18.

The Dow faced pressure from losses of 1% or more in Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) , AT&T (T:NYSE) , Disney (DIS:NYSE) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) .

On the plus side, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite overcame early weakness and added 1.25 points, or 0.05%, to 2435.49, benefiting from a 3.9% rise in KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) .

All told, the Dow was lower for the week by 78 points. The Nasdaq lost 16 points, and the S&P 500 was off by 8 points. In percentage terms, all three dropped about 0.6%.

Roughly 2.72 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.06 billion shares. Winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

After struggling for much of the day because of concerns about the Federal Reserves stance on rates, stocks were energized late by speculation that Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) and Countrywide Financial (CFC:NYSE) are talking about joining forces.

The Financial Times reported that the discussions were at an early point but could ultimately lead to BofA taking over Countrywide. Shares of Countrywide rose 4.2% to close at $42. BofA was off 0.7% at $52.04.

"The market performed admirably today, given the technical damage the indexes face," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "The perception of higher interest rates is spooking investors. It's not surprising to see this type of cautious trading ahead of a Fed meeting. If we don't reestablish the uptrend, we could be in trouble next week."

Central bank policymakers meet Tuesday and Wednesday, but no change in the target fed funds rate is expected.

The market was hit early by word that new homes were sold at a faster-than-expected annual pace in December, ending the year at 1.120 million. Analysts were expecting around 1.050 million.

Last month's reading was 4.8% above November's revised rate of 1.069 million, but 11% below the December 2005 pace of 1.259 million, the Census Bureau said.

The fact that stocks lost ground on the strong report -- relative to estimates -- underscores the difficult time investors are having with the current market. On Thursday, a somewhat soft reading on existing-home sales contributed to a selloff in the major averages.

However, home sales weren't the only data point traders had to consider. Before the session began, the government said durable-goods orders rose 3.1% in December, lower than expectations of a 3.5% increase. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.3%. November's headline number was revised upward to 2.2% from 1.6%.

Yields on Treasuries rose. The 10-year note fell 1/32 in price to yield 4.88%, and the 30-year bond lost 4/32 to yield 4.98%. The dollar was mixed against the world's other major currencies.

"Rising rates are an expression of economic strength, or increasing demand for funds," explained Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "That's bullish for corporate profits, but counter to the Fed's ''soft landing'' scenario."

Earnings were again in the spotlight as the week ended. Following Thursday's close, tech giant and Dow component Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) beat analysts'' estimates for earnings and revenue.

The software maker said it earned 26 cents a share on sales of $12.54 billion for the fiscal second quarter, topping forecasts of 23 cents and $12.08 billion. Shares of Microsoft added 15 cents, or 0.5%, to finish at $30.60.

Before the new session got started, fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income of $882 million, or $1.32 a share, higher by 4% from a year ago. Results missed the Thomson First Call average estimate by 2 cents.

However, Caterpillar said it expects full-year revenue for 2007 between $41.5 billion and $43.6 billion, higher than analysts'' forecasts. Shares finished higher on the news, rising $1.46, or 2.5%, to $61.09.

Among ratings moves, Citigroup downgraded Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) to hold from buy, citing the difficult balance between revenue growth and operating margin expansion. However, Cisco climbed 13 cents, or 0.5%, to $26.35.

Commodities were mixed. Crude oil futures climbed $1.19 to close at $55.42 a barrel, and natural gas gained 27 cents to $7.17 per million British thermal units. Gold was lower by $3.40 at $644.70 an ounce, and silver was off by 11 cents at $13.37 an ounce.

Equities were weaker overseas. London's FTSE was easing 0.7% to 6228, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was down 0.4% at 6690. Tokyo's Nikkei dipped 0.2% at 17,422, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 1.9% to 20,281.



What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading ?   ;)  ;D

Bullish
Bearish
Neutral




     

Wall Street Ends With Gains.......

1/30/2007


Stocks ticked higher Tuesday, but investors weren't inclined to make big bets with the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, more blue-chip earnings and surging oil prices to consider.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32.53 points, or 0.26%, to 12,523.31, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 7.55 points, or 0.31%, at 2448.64. The S&P 500 tacked on 8.20 points, or 0.58%, at 1428.82.

The Dow benefited from gains of 1.8% in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) . The Nasdaq got help from Activision (ATVI:Nasdaq) and Juniper Networks (JNPR:Nasdaq) , which each advanced 2.8%.

Roughly 2.73 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 12-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.84 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

Key action was taking place in Washington, D.C., where the Fed gathered for the first day of a policy meeting. The central bank will meet again Wednesday and release its policy statement at 2:15 p.m. EST.

No change is expected in the target fed funds rate for the fifth straight time. Even so, the Fed's comments on the economy will factor heavily in traders'' plans, at least for the near future.

James Park, managing director with Rodman & Renshaw, that the conundrum investors face in evaluating the Fed's moves is finding the balance of earnings expansion weighed against economic growth.

"The environment has been fairly encouraging," said Park. "Technology earnings shook a lot of confidence out of investors, but when you're seeing steady economic data investors should feel somewhat confident following the Fed announcement tomorrow."

Many are hoping to see a rate cut at some point this year, but the Fed has been noncommittal, saying it will rely on incoming data to determine whether the economy is slowing enough to drop short-term rates.

"Earnings reports should be supporting a bullish sentiment, but the question is whether the Fed gives us the same rhetoric or not," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "With a Fed meeting and a slew of economic data the rest of the week, we'll be cautious. Fears of inflation will be the stumbling block."

On the commodities front, oil prices jumped after a Saudi oil official said his country is committed to implementing production cuts in an effort to prop up crude. Futures added $2.96 to end at $56.97 a barrel. On Monday, crude slid $1.41 to $54.01.

Natural gas also surged, finishing up 80 cents to $7.74 per million British thermal units. Gold was higher by $1 to close at $644.20 an ounce, and silver tacked on 12 cents at $13.37 an ounce.

Turning to earnings, three components of the Dow were reporting their quarterly results. At 3M (MMM:) , earnings missed analysts'' fourth-quarter estimates, and its projections were on the light side. Procter & Gamble (PG:) edged past quarterly estimates and offered in-line guidance. 3M shed $4.26, or 5.4%, to $74.70. P&G lost 29 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.59.

Meanwhile, drugmaker Merck (MRK:) posted a fourth-quarter profit of $473.9 million, or 22 cents a share, down 58% from a year ago. Excluding items, the company earned 50 cents a share, matching estimates. Quarterly revenue of $6.04 billion exceeded expectations.

At the same time, Merck reaffirmed its full-year 2007 guidance, but analysts'' estimates have climbed since last month when the company offered the same forecast. Merck is anticipating a profit of $2.51 to $2.59 a share for 2007, whereas Wall Street's consensus is now $2.61. Shares were off 60 cents, or 1.3%, finishing at $44.91.

In other earnings, UPS (UPS:) reported fourth-quarter income of $1.13 billion, or $1.04 a share, up 7.5% from the year-ago quarter. Results matched expectations. However, full-year guidance fell short of analysts'' forecasts, and UPS sank 95 cents, or 1.3%, to $72.70.

JetBlue (JBLU:) said it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $17 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $42 million, or 25 cents a share. Excluding items, the airline earned 9 cents a share, falling short of the Thomson First Call consensus of 11 cents a share. JetBlue dropped 65 cents, or 4.5% to $13.85.

Among analyst moves, JPMorgan upgraded Starbucks (SBUX:) to overweight from neutral, and Goldman Sachs boosted its rating for RadioShack (RSH:NYSE) to buy from neutral.

Starbucks, which reports earnings Wednesday, finished unchanged at $34.56. RadioShack rose $1.04, or 5%, to $21.86.

Elsewhere, UBS raised its stock price target for retail giant Target (TGT:) to $78 from $70, and Banc of America Securities increased its price target for Time Warner (TWX:) to $25 from $24 and Disney (DIS:) to $34 from $32.

Target gained 0.6% to $60.44. Time Warner climbed 1.2% to $22.04. Disney ended up 1% to $35.04.

In the Day's only economic release, the Conference Board said that consumer confidence rose to 110.3 in January, the highest reading in nearly five years. The data came in slightly higher than December's revised reading of 110.0, and was above analysts'' estimates for 109.5.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said the rise wasn't a surprise.

"The increase in expectations was largely a lagged response to the plunge in gasoline prices in the fall," he said.

However, Shepherdson warned that gas prices "have now stopped falling so there will likely be no further up shift in expectations."

Treasuries were rising following the report. The benchmark 10-year note was up 4/32 to yield 4.88%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 8/32, yielding 4.98%.

Equities were mostly stronger overseas. Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was tacking on 0.9% at 6788, while London's FTSE was unchanged at 6242. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.1% overnight to 17,490, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.1% to 20,460.

Going to have a neutral stance on the markets atm. Shorts are not panning out moving down very little or rebounding back up. Most the shorts I have covered for a 2% profit or so. I dont think we are going to see some real bearish action till late spring early summer. If the housing market doesnt pick up this spring and summer I suspect we will see the backlash on the markets and DOW.

I am not worried about the DOW too much, but the $COMPX chart looks a bit toppy to me:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2002-01-29&id=p69663617056&a=96399436&listNum=1

 NYSE.......Chart...Bullish
Just look at this bullish chart.
99.99% chance the Market will be up tomorrow. Market has made its move and it's up.
Amazing, Don't know how but you can't fight the Power. Just try to make money off it.

Cisco Energizes Tech Sector.......

2/7/2007


Tech stocks were roused from their recent languor Wednesday, getting a boost from gains in networking giant Cisco (CSCO:) .

Not as fortunate were blue chips. After touching an intraday record high of 12,700.28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated and ended up 0.56 point at 12,666.87. The index was pressured by 2.1% loss in Alcoa (AA:) .

The S&P 500 added 2.02 points, or 0.14%, to 1450.02, but the big winner of the day was the Nasdaq Composite, ahead by 19.01 points, or 0.77%, to 2490.50.

Tech shares finally found a little buying interest thanks to a 3% increase in Cisco. The company said after the prior close that its sales for the third quarter would be better than previously thought. Cisco added 81 cents to $28.09.

Roughly 2.65 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq topped 2.23 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

For the most part, this week has been lackluster. On Tuesday, the Dow was up 4.57 points at 12,666.31, and the S&P rose 1.01 points. The Nasdaq added 0.89 point to 2471.49.

The market was also bogged down Monday, when the Dow gained just 8.25 points and the Nasdaq slipped 5.28 points.

"The very narrow trading ranges in the Dow [and] S&P ... show that supply and demand are in balance," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader "The afternoon rallies show that the bears can''t hold prices down. This suggests an upside resolution to the current trading range."

Meanwhile, traders shrugged off comments from Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser, who said he is "not convinced that underlying inflation is on a downward trend."

"Inflation stopped accelerating in the last few months, but whether it will continue to recede in the coming year is not yet clear," said Plosser. "Additional monetary policy action may be needed to keep us moving along the path to price stability. We may simply be seeing the temporary effect of recent declines in the price of oil, which seems just as likely to rise as to fall in the future."

On the economic front, the Labor Department said that fourth-quarter productivity rose at an annualized rate of 3%, a faster clip than expected. Unit labor costs rose at a 1.7% rate, below the consensus 2.1%. Third-quarter unit labor costs were revised upward to 3.2%.

"This solid performance indicates the growth potential of the U.S. economy remains formidable and greater than economists and policymakers have been inclined to acknowledge," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "Profits and stock prices should continue to surge higher."

Treasuries were on the rise. The 10-year note was up 6/32 in price, yielding 4.75%, and the 30-year bond was tacking on 8/32 to yield 4.85%. The dollar rose against the yen and euro but fell against the British pound.

Commodities retreated following a strong start. Crude oil futures dropped $1.17 to close at $57.71 a barrel, while natural gas tacked on 9 cents to $7.70 per million British thermal units. Gold eased by $1.40 to $657.30 an ounce.

The latest inventory report from the Energy Department contributed to weakness in energy prices. Crude inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels last week, distillate supplies fell by 3.7 million barrels, while gasoline stocks climbed by 2.6 million barrels.

In other earnings news, News Corp. (NWS:) posted fiscal second-quarter earnings that eased from a year ago but still came in higher than estimates. Shares added 55 cents, or 2.3%, to close at $24.70.

DirecTV (DTV:) , in which News Corp. owns a big stake, said fourth-quarter earnings rose to $356 million, or 29 cents a share, nearly tripling from the year-ago results. Analysts expected it to earn 30 cents a share. DirecTV jumped $1.38, or 5.8%, to $25.35.

Sara Lee (SLE:) swung to a fiscal second-quarter loss of $62 million, or 8 cents a share, compared with a profit of $438 million, or 57 cents, a year ago. One-time charges weighed down Sara Lee by 29 cents a share, making adjusted profits about 21 cents. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 16 cents a share. Still, shares were off 37 cents, or 2.1%, to finish at $17.

Stocks gained in Europe, where London''s FTSE 100 was higher by 0.4% to 6369 and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was up 0.6% at 6915. As for Asia, Tokyo''s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% to 17,292, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng was up 0.1% to 20,680.

Rough Day for Tech Sector.......

2/9/2007


Stocks had a strong start Friday but the gains wouldn''t hold, and the market closed lower amid a selloff in the tech and financial sectors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 56.80 points, or 0.45%, at 12,580.83, having been up by as many as 37 points earlier. The blue-chip index was pressured by a 2.6% decline in Disney (DIS:NYSE) . Overall, 26 of the Dow''s 30 components finished with losses.

The S&P 500 was lower by 10.25 points, or 0.71%, at 1438.06. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 28.85 points, or 1.16%, to 2459.82.

Seeing losses of 3% or more were Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) , SanDisk (SNDK:Nasdaq) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:Nasdaq) .

All told, the Dow finished a lackluster week lower by 72 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq slumped 16 points, or 0.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 10 points, or 0.7%.

Roughly 2.76 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners beat advancers by a 12-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.21 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 2 to 1.

By sector, financials suffered some of the worst losses for the day. The S&P 500 Financial Sector Index lost 1%, and the Nasdaq Financial 100 sank 1%. Other losers included the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index, down 1.4%, and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, off 1.5%.

The Nasdaq started selling off sharply in midsession, following news reports of comments by Micron (MU:NYSE) about price declines at its annual briefing with financial analysts.

Micron projected that the average price of NAND flash memory -- used in consumer electronics gadgets like MP3 players and cell phones -- would plummet 30% to 40% sequentially in the current quarter, according to a Reuters report. And the company doesn''t see any major demand drivers on the horizon to soak up all the supply of flash chips flooding the market.

Micron shares closed down 2.6% to $12.56.

"Investors should also be aware that the stock market is overdue for a short-term correction," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke. "However, barring a major unforeseen event that impacts the U.S. or global economy, 2007 is likely to end up with another year of moderate stock market gains."

The market also had to absorb midafternoon comments from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, who said the current direction of inflation was pleasing, but that he wouldn''t rule out another rate hike "if inflationary winds gain the upper hand."

Before the session began, St. Louis Fed President William Poole said that "the inflation rate is likely to fall into a reasonable range this year." Poole warned that "if, however, core inflation seems to be settling at a rate above 2%, then such an outcome would be unacceptable to me."

In his speech, Poole also said that the housing market is still not out of the woods, adding that "at a minimum we can say that we do not have evidence as yet that home prices have stabilized."

Among stocks, the debut of Fortress Investment Group (FIG:NYSE) was one of the day''s big events. Fortress priced its initial public offering Thursday evening at $18.50 a share, the top of its expected range.

Fortress finished its first trading session at $31 a share. Its IPO was the most eagerly anticipated deal since the Nymex (NMX:) came to town back in November. That deal doubled at the opening and went on to post a 125% gain in its first day of trading.

Another key issue was the fourth-quarter earnings from MasterCard (MA:NYSE) , which swung to a profit of $40.9 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with a loss of $52.9 million, or 39 cents a share, last year. Revenue jumped 17% to $839.2 million. MasterCard''s results beat the Thomson First Call consensus estimate of 17 cents a share on revenue of $826.9 million.

Additionally, the credit card outfit raised its quarterly dividend to 15 cents a share from 9 cents. After reaching a 52-week high of $118.07, euphoria faded and MasterCard shed $11.14, or 9.7%, to close at $103.60.

Shares of Lear (LEA:) ended lower after the auto-parts maker said it will accept a $5.3 billion offer from billionaire investor Carl Icahn''s American Real Estate Partners (ACP:) . The deal values Lear at $36 a share. Shares slipped 1.7% to $39.39.

Staying in the auto sector, Deutsche Bank upgraded Ford (F:) and General Motors (GM:) . The firm upped each to buy from hold, citing the possibility that negotiations on health care could improve the automakers'' ability to restructure.

Ford gained 18 cents, or 2.1%, to $8.73. GM jumped by $2.21, or 6.5%, to close at $36.01.

Broadcom (BRCM:) was up modestly after posting solid fourth-quarter numbers and setting a $1 billion buyback. Coldwater Creek (CWTR:) and BMC Software (BMC:) were lower on weak earnings news.

In the absence of any economic data, Treasury prices lost ground. The 10-year note was down 13/32 in price and yielding 4.78%, and the 30-year bond was diving 1-2/32, yielding 4.86%.

Turning to commodities, energy prices were mostly higher on worries about production outages in North America. Oil added 18 cents to close at $59.89 a barrel, while gold tacked on $9.50 to $672.30 an ounce.

Stocks rose in Europe, where London''s FTSE 100 was higher by 0.6% to 6383 and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was up 0.5% at 6911. In Asia, Tokyo''s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to 17,504, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng was down 0.3% to 20,677.

Dow Trend.......
The DOW remains the most positive index. A dip below the 50 day for whatever reason could be significant.  ;)




Stocks Close Modestly Lower

2/12/2007

The recent sluggishness for U.S. stocks continued Monday, and the major averages started a new week by closing modestly to the downside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 28.28 points, or 0.22%, to 12,552.55, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 9.44 points, or 0.38%, at 2450.38. The S&P 500 slipped 4.69 points, or 0.33%, to 1433.37.

Last week, the New York market had trouble keeping momentum, and the Dow and the Nasdaq each lost about 0.6%. Friday was especially tough for tech, as the Nasdaq slumped nearly 29 points, or 1.2%, to 2459.82.

One of the key stories of the session was a selloff in energy. Crude oil futures dropped $2.08 to $57.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and natural gas plunged 60 cents to $7.23 per million British thermal units.

The steep drop came after Saudi Arabia's oil minister indicated OPEC probably wouldn't try to implement new production cuts when its member nations meet again in March.

Prominent players like Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE) , ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) , Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) and Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) all dropped.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Services Sector index lost 1.4%, and the Amex Oil Index declined 1.3%.

As is not uncommon after a weekend, several companies were making M&A news. Among the deals, India's Hindalco will buy Novelis (NVL:) in a deal worth about $6 billion, and Tenaris (TS:) will acquire Hydril (HYDL:) for $2.16 billion.

Meanwhile, two other potential unions appear to be finished. Nasdaq Stock Exchange's (NDAQ:) $5.3 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange has failed, and rumored talks between Sanofi-Aventis (SNY:) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:) have come to an end, according to a published report.

Dow component Home Depot (HD:) added 1.1% to $41.44 after the seller of home-improvement goods said it might consider a sale or spinoff of its supply unit. The division has roughly $12 billion in annual sales.

Turning to the day's research calls, Keefe Bruyette upgraded MasterCard (MA:NYSE) to market-perform from underperform, and Southwest Air (LUV:NYSE) was upgraded by Bear Stearns to outperform from peer-perform.

Elsewhere, Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup, Credit Suisse raised its price target on Nike (NKE:NYSE) by $15 to $125, and Banc of America moved GM (GM:NYSE) to its list of least favorite stocks.

Roughly 2.4 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and on the Nasdaq, about 1.9 billion shares traded. Losers beat winners 3 to 2.

Treasury prices were on the decline. The 10-year note was down 5/32 to yield 4.80%, and the 30-year bond was falling 10/32 in price, yielding 4.89%. The dollar was weaker against the euro and the pound but up vs. the yen.

April-dated gold contracts eased $5 to close at $667.30 an ounce.

Overseas, major equity measures were lower in Europe. London's FTSE 100 was down 0.5% to 6354, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was off 0.8% at 6859. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.4% to 20,593. Tokyo's market was closed.

U.S. markets are technically stronger than they appear.
Despite pullback, the primary uptrend's intact.

Over the past several sessions, each major U.S. benchmark has pulled in from recent highs.
In fact, both the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials have pulled back from multi-year highs, and now hold within view of important support.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has dropped to test its 50-day moving average, closing Monday just three points above that level.
Yet despite recent sluggishness, the U.S. markets' path of least resistance, technically speaking, remains higher.


The S&P violated support on Friday for the first time in a week.
And after breaking below support, it's moved straight to a test of the December high, bottoming two straight sessions within a point of that level.
Yet despite its recent pullback, the S&P is still holding the middle of its three-week range.

In a similar move, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has violated its former breakout point of 12,623.
After breaking lower, it's established support around 12,540, bottoming two straight sessions within five points of that level.
Like the S&P, the Dow now holds the middle of its three-week range.

Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq has also pulled in along with the other benchmarks.
And with its recent pullback, the index has moved straight to a test of its 50-day moving average, which currently holds at 2,447.
The Nasdaq closed Monday just three points above that level, at 2,450.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective to the Nasdaq's recent price activity.
While the Nasdaq is still struggling to clear resistance around the December high, its full six-month view remains bullish.
The index staged a steep rally from the July low, and the subsequent three-month consolidation phase has been orderly, allowing the index to digest its gains.
Again, from Monday's close of 2,450, the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average holds at 2,447 and the late-January low rests at 2,418.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials have pulled in modestly from all-time highs.
From Monday's close of 12,552, the Dow's 50-day moving average holds at 12,454, and is followed by the late-January low of 12,431.
A close under the late-January low would mark a "lower low" raising the prospect of more pronounced consolidation.

And the S&P 500 has also pulled in recently, closely observing the December high as support.
For two straight sessions, the S&P has bottomed within a point of the 1,432 December high, and the index closed Monday just a point higher, at 1,433.
On further weakness, the S&P's 50-day moving average holds at 1,424, while the late-January low rests at 1,417.


The bigger picture:
With the recent market pullback, each major U.S. benchmark has two nearby support points worth tracking.

The first area of interest holds at the 50-day moving averages.

> The S&P 500's 50-day rests at 1,424, or nine points under Monday's close.
> The Dow's 50-day holds at 12,454, or 98 points under Monday's close.
> The Nasdaq's 50-day rests at 2,447, or three points under Monday's close.

Since the current uptrend took hold in mid-August, neither the Dow nor the S&P have closed under their respective 50-days.
And over that same span, the Nasdaq hasn't closed more than six points under its 50-day.

The second support point is a more important area at the late-January lows. Specifically:

> The S&P 500's late January low holds at 1,417.
> The Dow's late January low holds at 12,431.
> The Nasdaq's late January low holds at 2,418.

Looking ahead, a decisive break below those levels would mark a "lower low" placing the current uptrend in question.
Yet with those levels designated, the U.S. markets' path of least resistance remains higher. Each index holds within striking distance of multi-year highs, and the recent breaks to the upside remain more impressive than the corresponding downside weakness.

Deal Talk Energizes Stocks.......

2/13/2007

Stocks were smartly higher Tuesday as talk of a takeover for a U.S. industrial stalwart and fairly solid earnings reports brought in buyers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 102.30 points, or 0.81%, to 12,654.85, with 28 of the Dow's 30 components finishing with gains. The Nasdaq Composite gained 9.50 points, or 0.39%, to 2459.88, and the S&P 500 added 10.89 points, or 0.76%, to 1444.26.

"Investors welcomed today's corporate news while ignoring economic data and oil prices," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Today's move indicates that favorable news will continue to bring money in from the sidelines. Any positive news extends the bullish sentiment."

Leading the way higher was a report from overseas that two Australian companies, Rio Tinto (RTP:NYSE) and BHP Billiton (BHP:NYSE) , could be working on separate $40 billion offers to acquire Dow component Alcoa (AA:NYSE) .

Shares of the Pennsylvania-based aluminum giant added 6.4% to close at $35.

The Dow also got a boost from gains in components General Motors (GM:NYSE) and 3M (MMM:NYSE) .

GM finished with a gain of 2.5% to $36.59 after Merrill Lynch upgraded the automaker to buy from sell, assigning a stock price target of $50. The firm also downgraded Ford (F:NYSE) to sell from neutral, based on valuation. Ford shed 2.3% at $8.45.

Meanwhile, 3M shares were climbing after the conglomerate announced a $7 billion buyback plan. Shares rose $1.84, or 2.5%, to $76.43.

"Today looks better than it really may be, due to a few Dow components accounting for a lot of the return," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "A lot depends going forward as to how we perceive the interest rate policy. The perception of interest rate cuts has diminished greatly."

Roughly 2.68 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by an 8-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.88 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

Among earnings, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE:NYSE) posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.71 billion, or $3.59 a share, swelling from a loss of $57 million, or 12 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned 20 cents a share, topping estimates.

The Coke bottler also said it plans to cut 3,500 jobs, roughly 5% of its workforce. Shares finished up 42 cents, or 2.1%, to $20.95.

Homebuilder KB Home (KBH:NYSE) swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit of $304.4 million, or $3.44 a share, due to higher cancellation rates and big charges related to land impairments. The Thomson First Call estimate was for a loss of $1.14 a share. KB Home added $1.49, or 2.9%, to $53.43.

Elsewhere, shares of Applebee's (APPB:Nasdaq) surged after the restaurant operator said it will explore strategic options, including a possible sale or recapitalization of the company. Applebee's jumped $2.09, or 8.6%, to $26.32.

Away from equities, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit widened to $61.2 billion in December from $58.1 billion in November. Economists expected the trade deficit would widen to $59.5 billion.

Treasury prices were lower. The 10-year note was off 3/32, yielding 4.82%, and the 30-year bond was down 7/32 to yield 4.90%.

Crude futures reversed a steep decline from the previous session as the northeastern U.S. dealt with a flurry of winter weather. The near-month contract finished up $1.25 at $59.06 a barrel. Natural gas tacked on 13 cents to $7.36.

Prices for precious metals firmed. Gold finished the session with a gain of $1.20 to $668.50 an ounce, and silver added 20 cents to $13.91 an ounce.

Overseas, European shares rebounded. London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% to 6366, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX added 0.3% to 6878. Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.7% to 17,621, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.2% to 20,132.

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak Wednesday about the U.S. economy before a Senate panel. His testimony will conclude with a speech Thursday before a House of Representatives committee.

Earnings reports are expected Wednesday from Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE) , Office Depot (ODP:NYSE) and Genzyme (GENZ:Nasdaq) , among others.

New High for Dow.......

2/14/2007


Positive remarks from the Federal Reserve chairman lifted stocks Wednesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached yet another record high.

The Dow advanced 87.01 points, or 0.69%, to 12,741.86, its best-ever close. The S&P 500 added 11.04 points, or 0.76%, at 1455.30, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 28.50 points, or 1.16%, to 2488.38.

Of the Dow's 30 components, 25 finished the day in positive territory, led by gains of 2.2% in Caterpillar (CAT:) and Honeywell (HON:) .

Roughly 2.72 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.22 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

During his address to the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank is comfortable with interest rates and that some tentative signs of stabilization have recently appeared in the housing market.

"Inflation pressures appear to have abated somewhat," Bernanke said in his prepared testimony, before adding that the "monthly data are noisy, however, and it will consequently be some time before we can be confident that underlying inflation is moderating as anticipated."

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC, said that Bernanke's speech is exactly what the markets were looking for.

"His outlook includes solid growth in 2007 along with diminishing inflation concerns," said Sheldon. "He did highlight that housing will be a drag for some time, but that sector is starting to stabilize. It's what the markets wanted to hear."

Treasury prices also got a boost from Bernanke. The 10-year note rose 20/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 1-3/32 and yielding 4.83%. That action suggests the bond market is seeing less of a chance for rate hikes anytime soon.

Bernanke will continue his congressional testimony on Thursday when he addresses the House of Representatives.

U.S. equities continued their run from Tuesday, when talk of a takeover for Alcoa (AA:) and an upgrade of GM (GM:) helped spur buying. The Dow posted a triple-digit gain to 12,654.85, and the Nasdaq gained 9.50 points, or 0.39%, to 2459.88.

Before the new session, the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat last month, compared with a 0.9% rise in December. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. Excluding autos, January sales rose 0.3%, also less than anticipated.

On the corporate side, automaker DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) announced a restructuring plan that will see it terminate roughly 13,000 jobs in the U.S. Earlier, the company said fourth-quarter earnings fell 40% from a year earlier due to an operating loss out of its Chrysler Group. Shares rose $5.33, or 8.3%, to finish at $69.78.

Among earnings, soft-drink giant and Dow member Coca-Cola (KO:) posted fourth-quarter adjusted profits of 52 cents a share on revenue of $5.93 billion. Both numbers topped the analyst consensus, but Coca-Cola was off by 31 cents, or 0.6%, to $47.90.

Farm-equipment maker Deere (DE:) got past Wall Street's first-quarter estimates and said its second quarter and full year should be in line with the current forecasts. Deere shares jumped $9.24, or 9%, to close at $111.91.

Retailer Jones Apparel (JNY:) swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $269.5 million, or $2.51 a share, compared with a year-ago profit of $55.7 million, or 48 cents a share. Excluding items, Jones earned 53 cents a share and beat the Thomson First Call consensus of 46 cents a share. Still, the stock slid 38 cents, or 1.1%, to $33.78.

Crude futures eased following the latest weekly inventory report from the Energy Department. The near-month contract ended down $1.06 at $58 a barrel. Natural gas fell 12 cents to $7.24 per million British thermal units.

Last week, crude inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels. Distillate supplies fell by 3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks slipped by only 2 million barrels.

Metals prices firmed, with gold gaining $3.50 to $672 an ounce and silver higher by 5 cents to close at $13.96 an ounce.

Overseas, London's FTSE 100 was up 0.6% at 6421, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was adding 1% to 6961. Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.7% to 17,752. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 20,210.

While the earnings calendar is light Thursday, a plethora of economic data is on deck. Before the market opens, traders will sift through reports on export prices, initial jobless claims, manufacturing data in the New York region, as well as industrial production and capacity utilization.

Following the opening bell Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's data on manufacturing activity in the area is due.

AP
Dow Reaches New High on Bernanke Remarks
Wednesday February 14, 6:57 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer 
Dow Reaches New Closing High of 12,742 on Ben Bernanke's Comments About Economy, Inflation


NEW YORK (AP) -- The Dow Jones industrials set new highs Wednesday when stocks extended their gains for a second day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a Senate panel the economy should grow modestly this year and that he expects inflation will continue to ease.


The combined gains Wednesday and Thursday were the Dow's biggest since Aug. 15-16.

Wall Street, which had faced some concern about whether Bernanke might sound a hawkish note on inflation, welcomed his benign remarks. While investors might debate whether the Fed will lower short-term interest rates later this year, Wall Street appeared more confident the central bank was at least likely to leave rates unchanged, as it has in recent meetings.

Investors pleased by a sense that the overall economy is doing well managed to look past a Commerce Department report that retail sales were essentially flat in January amid slumping automobile sales. It was the weakest showing in three months and below what Wall Street had forecast.

News that DaimlerChrysler AG plans to chop 13,000 Chrysler workers under a plan to restore the U.S. operations' profitability by next year pleased investors. But Coca-Cola Co.'s earnings disappointed Wall Street.

"I think what we're having is a victory lap. So far the Fed's forecasts have been almost been spot on," said Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. "So what this tells us is that the Fed is most likely not in any hurry to move rates in either direction."

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 87.01, or 0.69 percent, to 12,741.86. The Dow set an intraday high of 12,759.40, eclipsing a high of 12,700.28 set Feb. 7. The blue chip average also finished at a new high, its 28th record close since the start of October. The previous record, set Feb. 1, was 12,673.68.

Wednesday marked the first time since March 17, 1998, the Dow industrials, transportation and utilities averages have closed at simultaneous highs. Such an alignment has now occurred only 20 times since 1929. The New York Stock Exchange Composite index closed at a record high 9,427.31.

Other stock indicators also climbed Wednesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 11.04, or 0.76 percent, to 1,455.30. The large-cap index is trading at its highest level in more than six years.

The Nasdaq composite index gained 28.50, or 1.16 percent, rising to 2,488.38.

Bonds rose sharply following Bernanke's testimony, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.74 percent from 4.81 percent late Tuesday. The dollar was lower versus most major currencies, except the yen. Gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude settled down $1.06 at $58 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after weekly domestic inventory data showed stores of distillates such as home heating oil fell by less than analysts had been expecting. A brush of cold weather across much of the nation had led forecasters to expect a larger decline.

But much of investors' attention remained on Bernanke's testimony. He didn't rule out the possibility of rate hikes, saying interest rates remain "somewhat elevated." Investors were receptive to his assessment that a precipitous slowdown in the housing sector was showing early signs of easing.

Matus said the Fed appears mostly happy with where the economy stands and that a rate hike would likely come only after the economy gave off strong inflationary signals.

"Given what we heard from him there would need to be some pretty good evidence that inflation was moving in the wrong direction," Matus said. "There's no sense in rocking the boat if the boat is going in the right direction."

The Fed left short-term interest rates, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, at 5.25 percent in late January. It was the fifth straight time the Fed had stood pat on interest rates and followed a string of 17 consecutive increases that began in 2004.

The flurry of news Wednesday follows a day in which stocks showed sharp gains -- the Dow Jones industrial average added 102 points -- after news that two companies were vying for aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. helped drive a notion that Wall Street would see an uptick in acquisition activity. Alcoa fell 43 cents to $34.57.

In corporate news Wednesday, Coca-Cola's fourth-quarter profit fell 22 percent despite higher sales. Excluding one-time items, profits at the world's largest beverage maker topped Wall Street's forecast. Coca-Cola slipped 33 cents to $47.88.

DaimlerChrysler rose $5.33, or 8.3 percent, to $69.78 after announcing its plan to slash costs.

Deere & Co. rose $9.24, or 9 percent, to $111.91 after the maker of farm equipment said profits increased as sales overseas made up for declines in the U.S. and Canada.

Garmin Ltd., which makes navigation devices that use global positioning systems, saw fourth-quarter profits more than double amid strong sales. Garmin advanced $4.29, or 8.1 percent, to $57.

Solar cell maker First Solar Inc. surged $9.44, or 27.5 percent, to $43.72 after its fourth-quarter earnings topped Wall Street's forecast.

Daktronics Inc. fell $8, or 21 percent, to $30.09 after company, which makes electronic scoreboards and video displays, predicted fourth-quarter revenue would come in below Wall Street's expectations.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 2.71 billion shares compared with 2.64 billion shares traded Tuesday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 1.46, or 0.18 percent, to 813.99. The Russell also set a new intraday high of 818.19, edging past a high of 817.01 set Friday.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.74 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.62 percent, Germany's DAX index gained 0.95 percent, and France's CAC-40 increased 0.76 percent.

New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com

Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com

Dow Claws Way to Record....... ;D

2/15/2007


Stocks extended their rally to a third session Thursday as an abundance of benign economic data and rate-friendly comments from the Federal Reserve chairman quashed any worries about new central bank tightening.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 23.15 points, or 0.18%, to 12,765.01, establishing a new all-time closing high. The S&P 500 was 1.51 points, or 0.1%, higher at 1456.81, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 8.72 points, or 0.35%, at 2497.10.

Of the Dow's 30 components, only 13 finished the day in positive territory, led by gains of 2% or more in Caterpillar (CAT:) and Boeing (BA:) .

"You need a broad-based rally in order to say that we have an uptrend, so we seem to be struggling more than anything else," said Edgar Peters, chief investment officer with Pan Agora. "We did get some good news for interest rates, but that's not necessarily good news for earnings. We should probably be in store for some consolidation."

Roughly 2.49 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 10-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.98 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 8 to 7.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrapped up his congressional testimony as he testified before the House of Representatives. During his remarks Wednesday, which were echoed Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank is comfortable with interest rates and that some tentative signs of stabilization have recently appeared in the housing market.

Those benign comments gave stocks a boost Wednesday. The industrials climbed 87.01 points, or 0.69%, and the S&P rose 11.04 points, or 0.76%, to 1455.30. The Nasdaq gained 28.50 points, or 1.16%, to 2488.38.

During the last three sessions, the Dow has surged 212 points and the Nasdaq has jumped 47.

"Mr. Bernanke's testimony continues the incremental reduction in hawkishness evident in the past few months'' FOMC statement, though there is nothing here that could be legitimately described as outright dovish," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, in a written message. "We don't think this represents a real change in stance, so the market reaction looks overdone."

Meanwhile, the economic docket was filled to the brim. The New York Fed said its Empire State Manufacturing index unexpectedly surged to a reading of 24.4 in February, up from 9.1 in January. Economists anticipated a slight increase to a reading of 11.

On the other hand, data from the Philadelphia Fed showed that manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell dramatically in February. The index came in at a reading of 0.6, down from 8.3 in January. Economists expected a slight decline to 4.0.

Elsewhere, the Labor Department said its import price index fell 1.2% last month, mostly in line with expectations. Imported petroleum prices fell 7.3% last month, and natural gas prices tumbled by 12%. Excluding petroleum, import prices were flat for the month.

Jobless claims rose last week by a greater-than-expected 44,000 to 357,000, according to a separate report from the Labor Department. The sharp increase was blamed on inclement weather across the U.S. The less-volatile four-week moving average climbed by 17,500 claims to 326,250.

In another report, industrial production fell 0.5% in January, well below the consensus of an unchanged reading. Capacity utilization fell to 81.2% last month from 81.8% in December, also below consensus.

In equities, the pace of earnings reports has slowed dramatically in the last couple of weeks, but influential names continue to appear. Ahead of the opening bell, oil-services outfit Baker Hughes (BHI:) said its quarterly revenue rose more than 20% year over year but its profits fell short of analysts'' forecasts. Shares dropped $6.75, or 9.4%, to $65.19.

As for the day's research calls, Goldman Sachs downgraded AMR (AMR:) , parent of American Airlines, but upgraded low-fare carrier JetBlue (JBLU:) .

AMR lost 1.2% to $38.05, while JetBlue gained 4.7% to close at $13.85.

AG Edwards raised its rating on American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS:) to buy from hold, and Prudential cut its rating on Schering-Plough (SGP:) to neutral from overweight.

American Eagle finished higher by 1.2% to $32.11, and Schering-Plough was off 1.2% to end the session at $24.46.

Treasury prices continued to rally. The 10-year note was up 9/32 in price, yielding 4.70%, and the 30-year was rising 17/32 to yield 4.80%.

Commodities lost ground. Oil futures dipped by a penny to close at $57.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and gold lost 60 cents at $671.40 an ounce.

Stocks were mixed in Europe but rose in Asia. London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% to 6433, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was 0.1% weaker at 6957. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.8% at 17,897, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.6% to 20,538.

Signs of a Top, or Just Noise?

In the current scene, one indicator I follow is the Weekly MACD...so far, it remains positive on the Dow, QQQQ and the Transports.I also watch the P-SAR trip on the weekly for any changes, there have been few.

If there is one early tipoff to a significant correction, it is in the PVO (Price Volume Oscillator). I try to correlate the PVO with MACD on the weekly charts.I have found that PVO begins its descent and goes negative before the MACD falls in many cases. Currently, the PVO is in negative territory and falling further on QQQQ and DJIA even as MACD continues to run above neutral, this could be the early tipoff, watching it closely for now.

PVO looks especially weak in comparison to rising MACD (in a divergence) on the following "stock leaders":

GOOG
AAPL
INTC
AKAM
GM*
XOM

*GM in some people's eyes is not a market leader, yet it led the Dow 30 in 2006.

So, the above big name stocks have all had negative, sinking PVO readings on the weekly charts for the past month or two, even as their MACD remain in positive territory.

What this says to me is that the "smart money" is slowly pulling out of these stocks, and not much fresh money is coming in...these stocks may have topped already!!

Among the indices:

QQQQ has a sinking PVO right at zero, with divergent (positive) MACD
$INDU is a negative and falling PVO with MACD flat-lining at a lofty 300.
SPY's PVO is really getting ugly, even as its MACD flat-lines at a lofty 3.7 reading.

(Try running SDS on the same weekly view, it's just the opposite divergence of SPY, though only a brief reading is available on the weekly chart because it is still a new issue.)


In summation, though a sinking/ negative PVO with divergent MACD is not always a signal of a top, it does give me concern that dollar in-flows are slowing into the key stocks of this market, and in some cases, when PVO diverges from the direction of MACD, a downturn may not be too far off. The sell signals have not tripped yet, but I am keeping a close eye on P-SAR for a trip on the weekly charts...that will be the signal to sell almost everything except ETFs like SDS and QID...and possibly hold on to any gold stocks you may have.

Wall Street Finds Footing.......

2/28/2007


Stocks in New York endured a back-and-forth morning Wednesday before enough bargain hunters emerged to lift the market solidly into positive territory following the prior session's mammoth selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 58 points, or 0.5%, to 12,274, but was still below its highest level of the day.

At its worst, the Dow was lower by 28 points and, at its best, the blue-chip index was better by more than 130 points. Out of 30 components, 21 were trading higher. Procter & Gamble (PG:) was the best performer, up 3.6%.

The S&P 500 was adding 8 points, or 0.6%, at 1407, and the Nasdaq Composite was gaining 11 points, or 0.5%, to 2419.

On Tuesday, a global selloff sent the major U.S. averages to some of the worst single-day point losses they've ever seen. The Dow plunged 416.02 points, or 3.29%, to 12,216.24, its biggest one-session decline since the market reopened six days after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Briefly, the Dow was down as much as 546 points.

The Nasdaq sank 96.65 points, or 3.86%, to 2407.87, and the S&P 500 tumbled 50.33 points, or 3.47%, to 1399.04. Sellers unloaded shares with conviction, and the New York Stock Exchange traded record volume.

"The market lost some $600 billion in valuation yesterday," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Yesterday's losses were real. Technical levels were broken. The fundamentals may not bail this pullback out."

A large part of the blame for the huge drop went to a selloff in overseas equities, particularly in mainland China, that preceded the U.S. session. Markets around the world were deep in the red again, with the notable exception of a bounce in China.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, coming off a 9% dive, closed up 3.5%.

Elsewhere, however, traders were contending with heavy losses. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 lost 2.9% to 17,604, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 2.5% to 19,652. South Korea's Kospi gave up 2.6%, and Singapore's Straits Times Index surrendered 3.7%.

That weakness spread to Europe, where the London FTSE 100 was down 1.8%, the Frankfurt Xetra DAX was off 1.5% and the Paris Cac 40 fell 1.3%.

"The market was overdue for a shakeout," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "We had gone eight months without a correction. The magnitude of the correction was overdone, however. The Chinese market that precipitated the decline has come back, so the question is whether we can follow suit."

Treasury prices were faltering after the prior Day's surge. The 10-year note was off 13/32, yielding 4.57%, and the 30-year bond was slumping more than 29/32, yielding 4.69%.

While no relief was found in the prepared testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who spoke before the House of Representatives about long-term fiscal challenges, the question-and-answer session yielded soothing comments regarding the central Bank's outlook.

"The Fed has been closely monitoring the markets. They seem to be working well, and working normally," said Bernanke in response to his reaction to the previous Day's decline. "My view is that taking all the new data into account, there is no material change in our expectations for the economy since I last reported to Congress."

Meanwhile, fresh government data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a weaker rate during the fourth quarter than previously reported. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose 2.2% last quarter, up from the advance reading of a 3.5% annual pace. The latest reading matched expectations.

Core consumer price inflation rose 1.9%, annualized, during the fourth quarter, revised lower from 2.1%.

The GDP report is the second of three that will ultimately be released on the fourth quarter.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Chicago purchasing managers'' index showed a decline to 47.9 in February from 48.8 in January. Though the Chicago PMI specifically discusses manufacturing activity in the Midwest, it's closely watched for clues about the overall stability of the nation's factory sector.

Additionally, the Census Bureau said new-home sales plummeted 16.6% to 937,000 annualized units. Economists had anticipated a slight decrease to 1.09 million annualized units from 1.12 million in December.

"We got two tests for the market since the open in the form of the Chicago PMI index and new-homes sales data," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist with A.G. Edwards. "After yesterday's extreme bloodletting, the market will hopefully continue to show resilience. We're testing the mettle of this market."

On the corporate news front, Home Depot (HD:) offered disappointing sales guidance for fiscal 2008, saying the residential housing market probably won't improve until at least the second half of this year.

Home Depot was losing 34 cents, or 0.9%, to $39.48. Rival Lowe's (LOW:NYSE) was falling by 53 cents, or 1.6%, to $32.73.

Sprint Nextel (S:) posted quarterly results that were in line with estimates, and the phone company said this year's revenue should also be around what analysts are expecting. Shares of Sprint were jumping by $1.29, or 7%, to $19.74.

As for the Day's research calls, JPMorgan upgraded Boeing (BA:) to neutral from underweight but cut its rating on Lockheed Martin (LMT:) to underweight from neutral.

Boeing was adding 0.8% to $87.90. Lockheed was recently up 0.4% to $97.92.

ThinkEquity raised Research In Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) to buy from accumulate, and Merrill Lynch downgraded Deutsche Bank (DB:NYSE) , Lehman (LEH:NYSE) and other brokers to neutral from buy.

RIM was higher by 1.8%, and Deutsche was tacking on 0.4%. Lehman, on the other hand, was losing 0.9%.

Crude futures eased following the latest weekly inventory report from the Energy Department. Lately, the near-month April contract was down 59 cents at $60.87 a barrel. Natural gas was losing 25 cents to $7.28 per million British thermal units.

Last week, crude inventories increased by 1.4 barrels. Distillate supplies fell by 3.8 million barrels, while gasoline stocks slipped by 1.9 million barrels.

Metals prices were also losing ground. Gold was falling by $16.40 to $670.80 an ounce, and silver was lower by 43 cents at $14.26 an ounce.

With many believing that the stock market had gotten ahead of itself, it appears Tuesday's drubbing may have been the long-overdue consolidation that had been talked about for some time. As a result, a sense that yesterday's corrective activity was an overreaction, which plays into our reiteration that market fundamentals overall remain moderately bullish, triggered enough bottom-fishing interest to help stocks bounce back.

Even though the market was poised for a rebound before Fed Chairman Bernanke began speaking before the House Budget Committee at 10:00 ET, there's no question that his ensuing thoughts about Tuesday's sell-off helped provide the reassurance investors needed to stay the course long enough to recoup some of the market's meltdown.

After all, the spate of economic data hitting the wires before Bernanke even took the podium today was disappointing on the whole. At 8:30 ET, Q4 GDP was revised lower, as expected, checking in at 2.2%. The advance read a month earlier showed the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% pace. At 9:45 ET, the Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (47.9%) in February since April 2003, serving as a reminder that the manufacturing sector is struggling. Then at 10:00 ET, new home sales in January plunged 16.6%, the biggest drop in 13 years, adding insult to the ongoing injury that is housing.

Be that as it may, Bernanke surprisingly answered questions pertaining to yesterday's plunge and did so with a slew of remarks that helped participants look past the day's disappointing economic reports, rising interest rates and higher energy prices. Nine out of 10 sectors posted gains.

Bernanke reassured investors, saying "there didn't seem to be any single trigger'' for Tuesday's sell-off. He also noted that financial markets "seem to be working well" and there has been "no material change" in the Fed's expectation for the U.S. economy. In fact, he said today's downward revision to Q4 GDP is "more consistent with our overall view of the economy'' than the original report and that there's a "reasonable possibility" that the economy will show signs of strengthening as the year progresses.

The Fed Chairman also put to rest concerns about sub-prime mortgage lending spreading into the broader economy and said he sees no liquidity problem. Both items contributed to yesterday's widespread panic, and have provided an added sense of comfort for bargain hunters believing the sell-off was overdone.

Further underscoring renewed bullishness were notable declines of 15.5% and 11.5% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively. Both "investor fear gauges" erasing some of the heightened anxiety priced into yesterday's session, amid aggressive put buying, suggests a short-term bottom is being formed as sellers began to cover some of their short positions. DJ30 +51.91 NASDAQ +8.27 SP500 +7.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1370/1685/2.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1123/2181/1.96 bln

Stocks Come Off the Mat.......


3/1/2007



Stocks in New York overcame an ugly start to finish only modestly lower Thursday as an upbeat factory report helped entice buyers to the market.

The major indices dropped sharply at the open after new selloffs overseas and found enough strength to ever-so-briefly edge in to positive territory late in the day. After a short stay in the green however, shares retreated back below the flat line.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a loss of 34.29 points, or 0.28%, at 12,234.34. At their worst, the industrials sank more than 200 points.

Of the Dow's 30 components, 20 finished negative. Citigroup (C:) was the best performer, up 1.4%, while Intel (INTC:) slumped 1.4%.

The S&P 500 erased most of its earlier loss and ended lower by 3.65 points, or 0.26%, at 1403.17. The Nasdaq Composite shed 11.94 points, or 0.49%, at 2404.21.

"We've stopped the bleeding, and now we're just trying to regain a sense of calm," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "Now, we're tied to all of the markets overseas, and we'll be constantly watching them."

Roughly 3.89 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners beat advancers by a 10-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.80 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 2 to 1.

Most of the selling pressure was relieved at 10 a.m. EST after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index for February rose to a reading of 52.3. Economists had expected the index to advance to 50 from January's 49.3.

Numbers above 50 represent an expansion in factory activity, while those below the mark point to a contraction.

Even though the major indices bounced from session lows following the ISM data, the Dow remains lower by 553 points, or 4.3%, from its all-time closing high set last week. The index is also down by 229 points, or 1.8%, for the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen 3.9% since its six-year high last week and 1.1% for the year. The Nasdaq is down 4.8% from its 2007 high, but is off only 0.5% for the year.

The erratic trading in the U.S. followed another decline in Asia and suggested that the effects of the plunge in global equities two days ago remains on the minds of investors. Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 1.6%, and China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 tumbled 2.8%.

Meanwhile, markets across Europe were generally weaker. Frankfurt's Xetra Dax was down 1.1% the Paris Cac 40 fell 1.1%, and London's FTSE 100 was off 0.9%.

On Wednesday, New York stocks stabilized after plunging during the prior session. The Dow gained 52.39 points, or 0.43%, to 12,268.63, but finished well below its highest level of the day.

The S&P 500 rose 7.78 points, or 0.56%, to 1406.82, and the Nasdaq was up 8.27 points, or 0.34%, to 2416.13.

"If Tuesday was just an aberration, then we should have gained back half of the loss," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Being up 50 points [on the Dow] when we should have been up 200 or more means that the economic data and investor sentiment was worth 150 points of downside pressure."

"We had effectively wiped out all of the gains made since Dec. 4," added Pado. "There has been significant technical damage in this decline."

Little relief was found in the remainder of Thursday's economic data. The Commerce Department said that personal income rose a greater-than-expected 1% in January. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditure price index is now higher by 2.3% over the past year, outside of the Federal Reserves comfort zone range of 1% to 2%.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 338,000 last week. The less volatile four-week moving average increased by 7,500 claims to 335,250.

Treasuries were recently clinging to gains. The 10-year note was up 6/32 in price, yielding 4.55%, and the 30-year bond was gaining 7/32 to yield 4.67%.

Commodities were mixed. Crude oil reversed losses and was higher by 21 cents, finishing at $62 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gold was lower by $7.40 to $665.10 an ounce. Natural gas slipped 2 cents to $7.28 per million British thermal units.

On the corporate side, a battle could be brewing for Texas utility TXU (TXU:) . A report out of the U.K. said that Credit Suisse (CS:) is trying to put together a debt deal that would fund a competing offer for the company. Earlier this week, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Texas Pacific said they would take over TXU for $45 billion. TXU added 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.50.

Oracle (ORCL:) agreed to buy Hyperion Solutions (HYSL:) for $3.3 billion, and both stocks were trading higher. Oracle gained 2.1% at $16.77, and Hyperion surged 20.4% to $51.57.

As for the Day's earnings, Viacom's (VIA:) quarterly results were better then expected, as were the numbers at Sears (SHLD:) . Viacom shed 2.4% to $38.61, and Sears slipped by 2.3% and closed at $176.07.

Elsewhere, Staples (SPLS:) edged past estimates and boosted its dividend, and Ciena (CIEN:) guided its revenue targets higher. Staples fell 2.6% to finish at $25.35, and Ciena dropped 10.1% to $28.28.

SunTrust Banks (STI:) revised its fourth-quarter earnings results lower to $1.39 a share from $1.46 a share. The previous earnings data had matched the Thomson First Call consensus. Still, SunTrust finished with a gain 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.74.

On the research front, Lehman Brothers upgraded Apple (AAPL:) to overweight from equal-weight. The stock added $2.45, or 2.9%, to $87.06.

Bulls Make Their Comeback.......


3/6/2007


Wall Street was in full rally mode Tuesday as a rebound in overseas bourses emboldened buyers, giving the major U.S. indices their biggest single-day gains so far this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 157.18 points, or 1.3%, to 12,207.59. The S&P 500 added 21.29 points, or 1.55%, to 1395.41.

The Nasdaq Composite was the strongest gainer, rising 44.46 points, or 1.9%, to 2385.14.

Nearly every Dow component finished in positive territory, led by gains of 2.7% in Citigroup (C:) , Altria (MO:) and American Express (AXP:) . Only Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:) finished in the red.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, benefited from gains in Apple (AAPL:) , Google (GOOG:) , Oracle (ORCL:) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW:) .

Many subdivisions of the market improved. The Amex Oil Index added 1.9%, both the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index gained 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average finished 1% higher.

"This was a relief rally that started overseas and shouldn't be surprising," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "Now we have some short-term support areas and we have something to work off of. We'll continue to trade off the technical picture and the global market environment."

Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities, cautioned that stocks still may not be out of the woods. "We will have to watch out for selling into strength," he said.

Nearly 3.36 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers beat decliners by a 14-to-3 margin. On the Nasdaq, volume reached 2.14 billion shares, as winners trampled losers 4 to 1.

Stocks had floundered over the past five sessions after a massive selloff a week ago unnerved investors around the world. Despite Tuesday's rally, the Dow is still down 256 points, or 2.1%, for the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen 23 points, or 1.6%, for the year. The Nasdaq has given back 30 points, or 1.2%, for 2007.

Tuesday's climb followed a rally in Asian markets. Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said during a visit to Tokyo that the global economy is strong and that reforms in China would help mitigate market volatility.

Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 2.1%, and China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 climbed nearly 2%.

The rebound overseas came as the Japanese yen posted the biggest drop against the dollar in three months and had the largest decline against the euro in 17 months.

A rising yen in recent days had prompted market worries that carry trades, in which investors borrow money in low-yielding securities like the yen and invest it in higher-yielding assets, were unwinding. Such an unwinding could present a liquidity crisis.

Markets across Europe mirrored the rise in Asia. Frankfurt's Xetra Dax rose 0.9%, the Paris Cac 40 was higher by 1%, and London's FTSE 100 tacked on 1.3%.

Back in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addressed the Independent Community Bankers Association in Hawaii, but he didn't make any comments on the markets or the economy.

Earlier, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg that he sees a one-third probability the U.S. economy will fall into a recession this year. His comments follow remarks last week that while "it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008."

Traders were reviewing Tuesday's economic releases for more clues on the direction of the U.S. economy. The Labor Department said fourth-quarter productivity rose by a revised 1.6%, in line with projections. Unit labor costs, however, doubled expectations, with a 6.6% rise for the quarter.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said he views the data as "another reason to worry about stocks, because rising [unit labor] costs and slower growth mean downward pressure on margins."

Also on the economic docket, the Census Bureau said factory orders fell 5.6% in January, steeper than expectations for a 4% decline. Elsewhere, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales dropped 4.1% in January.

Treasuries lost ground. The 10-year note was down 9/32 in price, yielding 4.53%, and the 30-year bond fell 13/32 to yield 4.66%.

Commodities reversed some of the previous session's losses. Crude oil was higher by 62 cents to close at $60.69 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange, and gold added $7 to $646.20 an ounce. Natural gas was tacking on 22 cents to $7.47 per million British thermal units.

In corporate news, Citigroup offered to buy Japanese firm Nikko Cordial for nearly $11 billion. Shares of Citigroup ended up $1.33, or 2.7%, to $50.58.

Michael Eisner's investment company Tornante and private-equity group Madison Dearborn Partners said they will acquire Topps (TOPP:) for $385 million, or $9.75 a share. The trading-card company's stock jumped 90 cents, or 10.1%, to $9.81.

CBS (CBS:) said it will buy back 47 million shares for $1.4 billion under an accelerated repurchase program. The move is part of a plan announced last week. The stock was higher by $1.32, or 4.5%, to close at $30.94.

Shares of Novartis (NVS:) finished higher after the Food and Drug Administration gave approval for the company's high blood pressure drug Tekturna. The stock climbed $3.31, or 6.2%, to $56.85.

On the research front, Bear Stearns upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN:) to outperform from peer perform. Also, Deutsche Securities upped Dow component Altria to buy from hold.

Texas Instruments added 45 cents, or 1.5%, to $31.35. Altria was higher by $2.21, or 2.7%, to $84.42.

One week ago
fears that the market was getting ahead of itself, after running virtually unabated since bottoming in July, caught the bulls off guard, resulting in the biggest one-day point decline since the U.S. markets reopened on September 17, 2001. The Dow slipped into negative territory for the year as all 30 components suffered losses.

Today, those overbought concerns were thrown out the window, for the time being anyway, as a sense that a bottom has finally formed following a week of aggressive selling pressure gave stocks a sizable boost right out of the gate. The Dow soared 1.3%, logging its best one-day gain since last July; 29 of 30 components finished with gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had their best performances of the year as sellers ran for cover.

Market internals were decidedly bullish as advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by a 5-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq held a 4-to-1 advantage.

Further underscoring the change in sentiment were declines of 19% and 14% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index). Known as the "investor fear gauges," both indexes spiking lower suggest investors were actively buying call options in anticipation that investors are growing more cognizant of the fact that recent events have simply had little to no bearing on the fundamental picture.

With a possible unwinding of the yen carry trade potentially leading to a liquidity crunch acting as an overhang, some profit taking in the Japanese currency helped to quell such concerns and prompted a rebound in Asian markets overnight. Japan's Nikkei index rose 1.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 2.1%. With the U.S. markets also extremely sensitive to any good news,
participants used the rally in overseas markets as a springboard to pick up bargains across the board.

All 10 economic sectors posted solid gains and, in stark contrast to the action early yesterday morning, when 144 of 147 S&P industry groups were in the red, only three groups failed to participate in today's broad-based recovery. More notably, the most influential sector of them all -- Financials -- also turning in the best performance lent even more conviction on the part of buyers' optimism about the health of the economy.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson saying that sub-prime lending will not have a major impact on the financial sector or the global economy kicked things off on a positive note. Paulson also saying that, "The global economy is more than sound... it's as strong in the last couple of years as I've seen in a lifetime... I see no downturn" also helped to offset former Fed Chairman Greenspan's latest assertion that there is a "one-third probability" of a U.S. recession this year.

Dow has been in a trading range for most of the session...look at the intraday, oscillating back and forth between 12270 and 12300.

Of course a minute after saying that the bottom would fall out  >:(

Time to watch.......
The Dow has bounced of it's resistance level. All could be well. However a close below 12000, could mean another 800 point drop. 



Global Rally Spurs Wall Street.......


3/8/2007


Stocks in the U.S. surged early following upbeat sessions overseas, then survived a brief afternoon scare before managing to close moderately higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 100 points during the morning before losing momentum. Around 2:30 p.m. EST, it showed a gain of only around 30 points. However, the Dow recovered and finished up 68.25 points, or 0.56%, at 12,260.70.

The S&P 500 rose 9.92 points, or 0.71%, to 1401.89, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 13.09 points, or 0.55%, at 2387.73.

Twenty-six of the Dow's 30 components finished in positive territory, with Verizon (VZ:) , AT&T (T:) , American Express (AXP:) and Honeywell (HON:) leading the gains.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, benefited from rises in KLA-Tencor (KLAC:) , Nvidia (NVDA:) , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI:) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM:) .

Many subdivisions of the market improved. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index climbed 1.8%, the NYSE Financial Index gained 1%, and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index was higher by 0.6%.

About 3.03 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers beat decliners by an 8-to-3 margin. On the Nasdaq, volume reached 1.75 billion shares, as winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

Last week, stocks took a nosedive amid a massive selloff around the world, but the major indices are performing better this week. Over the past four session, the Dow is higher by 1%, the S&P 500 has risen 1.1%, and the Nasdaq has added 0.8%.

"We're trading very well today on tempered optimism," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "We've had sideways trading for the last few days, and after stabilizing we're now higher ahead of tomorrow's employment number."

The Labor Department will post February's jobs data on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST. Economists expect that the U.S. economy added 100,000 workers last month.

In the final report before the jobs data, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 last week to 328,000. The less volatile four-week moving average rose by 4,750 to 339,000.

"Today's jobless claims number doesn't change our view on tomorrow's payroll number, which is good," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "The number was in line with expectations, so tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls number shouldn't stray too much from expectations. Friday's report will return our focus to fundamentals, away from global markets, which is what we need to do."

The global markets helped spur Wall Street's buying Thursday, as bourses across Asia posted solid gains overnight. China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index climbed 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1.4%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was ahead by 1.9%.

Europe was also on the ascent, with London's FTSE 100 better by 1.2% and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX up 1.4%. The Cac 40 in Paris rose 1.3%.

"Global markets look to be stabilizing, which should put us back in a positive trend," said Hogan.

Headlining the U.S. session were the nation's retail stores, which posted their February sales results. The world's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart (WMT:) , said same-store sales rose an anemic 0.9% in February. Analysts had expected Wal-Mart to post a 1.5% rise, and the stock finished down 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $47.88.

On the other hand, rival Target (TGT:) beat expectations after posting a 5.7% increase in same-store sales last month. The retailer said it expects March comp sales to surge 11% to 13% because of the earlier Easter holiday. Target gained $1.09, or 1.8%, to $61.69.

Among others, Pier 1 (PIR:) said its February comparable sales dropped 8.4%. Same-store sales were down 5.7% at Pacific Sunwear (PSUN:) .

Limited's (LTD:) comps were up 3% last month, while Gap (GPS:) posted a better-than-expected 4% decline.

Both Costco Wholesale (COST:) and Federated Department Stores (FD:) reported same-store sales growth that came in below estimates, while Nordstrom (JWN:) blew away the forecast.

As for earnings, TiVo (TIVO:) posted a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss after the prior close, but still traded lower. TiVo fell 5 cents, or 0.8%, closing at $6.09.

Later, homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV:) is expected to report a fiscal first-quarter loss of 69 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call. Hovnanian was 0.3% higher ahead of the report, up 8 cents at $30.48.

On the research front, Ford (F:) was lifted to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse. Ford rose 31 cents, or 4.1%, to end at $7.93.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, energy futures were falling. Crude oil was down 18 cents to close at $61.64 a barrel, and natural gas was off 12 cents at $7.24 per million British thermal units.

Metals prices inched higher. Gold rose $2.60 to close at $655.50 an ounce, and silver tacked on 1.5 cents at $13.12 an ounce.

Bond prices were under pressure. The 10-year note was down 10/32 in price, yielding 4.52%, and the 30-year was losing 15/32 to yield 4.66%.

Mixed End To The Trading Week,
A Flat Finish for Wall Street.......


3/9/2007


Stocks had an upbeat start after government employment data was right in line with estimates Friday, but the early gains gradually faded and the market ended little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.62 points, or 0.13%, to 12,276.32. The S&P 500 was up 0.96 point, or 0.07%, at 1402.85, and the Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.18 point, or 0.01%, at 2387.55.

On the Dow, only 14 of its 30 components finished with gains, led by a 2.2% rise in Alcoa (AA:) .

Meanwhile, losses in Amgen (AMGN:) , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI:) , XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:) and CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW:) combined to sink the Nasdaq.

Roughly 2.68 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 3-to-2 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.93 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 8 to 7.

Over the last five sessions, the Dow added 1.3% and the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, compared to heavy losses the previous week. The Nasdaq rose 0.8% for the week.

The jobs report, one of the most important pieces of data the government releases every month, showed that 97,000 workers were added to U.S. payrolls in February. Economists had expected 95,000 positions to have been created, according to a Bloomberg poll.

The jobless rate eased to 4.5% from 4.6%. No change had been anticipated. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation metric, rose a greater-than-expected 0.4%.

"The stock market has been fairly volatile, as it appears investors are divided between an optimistic growth forecast and a pessimistic one," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "Today's jobs report is a perfect example of where you can see a positive and as well as a negative. That gave us this very choppy trading."

Meanwhile, in what is becoming common, job growth for the prior two months was revised upward. The government now says 55,000 more employees were put to work in December and January than had been first thought.

"We were expecting far more weakness," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial. "To come in on target and have upward revisions to previous months, it shows that the ''Goldilocks'' scenario is still in place. This takes a lot of the fear out of the market."

Fixed-income traders sent yields soaring, as the report showed a stronger economy than previously thought. The 10-year note fell 19/32 in price, yielding 4.59%, and the 30-year bond sank 1 2/32 to yield 4.72%.

"Bond yields had been coming down on anticipation we were headed for an economic slowdown," added Mendelsohn. "Today's reading shows, from an employment point of view, that the economy is still strong and on track. It should be expected that bond yields would rise."

The report comes less than two weeks before the next Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank will meet for the second time this year on March 20 for the start of a two-day meeting, but no change in the target fed funds rate is expected.

Additionally, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $59.1 billion in January from $61.2 billion in December. Economists expected the trade deficit would shrink to $60 billion.

Turning to global markets, Asia was mixed overnight. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 was ahead by 0.4% to 17,164, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave back 0.2% to 19,135. Mainland China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index was weaker by 0.6% at 2611.

On the corporate side, Procter & Gamble (PG:) reaffirmed its forecast for the March quarter, including its call for a profit of 72 cents to 74 cents a share. Analysts are expecting P&G to hit the high end of its guidance. P&G was off by 15 cents, or 0.2%, to finish at $62.16.

Embattled New Century (NEW:) dropped more than 17% after the company said it has stopped accepting new loan applications. The move adds fuel to the rumors that the subprime mortgage lender will file for bankruptcy.

Shares fell by 66 cents to $3.21. New Century has now dropped 90% from its 2006 close of $31.59.

Yahoo! (YHOO:) faced pressure after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Internet giant may scale back its partnership with AT&T (T:) . Yahoo! sank $1.59, or 5.2%, at $29.12.

Among ratings changes, Stifel Nicolaus upgraded FedEx (FDX:) to buy from hold, and the stock was higher by $1.08, or 1%, to close at $114.67.

The firm also raised Texas Instruments (TXN:) to buy from hold, saying the chipmaker's overstock inventory has been reduced. Shares rose 76 cents, or 2.4%, to $32.46.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, energy futures were lower. Crude oil slid $1.59 to $60.05 a barrel, and natural gas was off 15 cents at $7.08 per million British thermal units.

Metals prices slipped. Gold was off by $3.50 to $652 an ounce, and silver eased 15 cents to $12.97 an ounce.

Looks to me that we may see a negative week next week.  After spending the whole of this week rallying the Dow, COMPEX and S&P 500 all broke down in the last few hours of trading on Friday.  Technically, on the dow INDU 30 minute chart we can see that after the previous week's breakdown, a bottom was formed on Monday, and we have had a market rally since then, which developed into a rising wedge.  This wedge broke down on Friday afternoon, approaching 12,225 support and then rallying towards the close.  However, often wedges like this result in a rally back to resistance before the second wave of selling kicks in.  This is what I think we may see next week. 

Take ATI's 5 minute chart from Friday as an example.  The stock gapped up first thing, gave up all its gains and then proceeded to rally for most of the morning, developing a rising wedge.  When that wedge broke down, it made a sharp downward move, and then rallied back up to last resistance at 103.65.  From there it developed a small flag, which then broke to the downside, and the stock gave up all of its gains before finding support at the previous day's close.  I is currently unclear whether ATI has more in the tank to make a second rally above 103 on Monday, or will break below 102.30 support.

With the Dow, the chains are clearly set.  Support sits at 12,225 and if that breaks, it will likely drop to 12,185.  Below that support levels sit at 12,160 and 12,090.  A break below this level would probably signal the next significant bear move for the markets.  On the upside, resistance comes in at 12,300 and 12,325-30.  If the Dow manages to break above 12,330, which is significant, this could fuel a rally up to next resistance at 12,475, 12,540 or even as high as 12,610, whien the Dow really cratered.  There is the possibility that technically, this wedge breakdown is actually forming the handle of a cup n handle formation.  But from the technicl perspective, the Dow chart looks dangerous now, and Friday might be the highest we will see in a while.

Right now, I'm just trying to figure out what the market is going to do now, next week, short term.  But it also helps to take a longer term perspective and see where we might get to.  Obviously, as I said in the last post, my my short term reading of the situation suggests that we may have a bearish breakdown on our hands, and a breakdown below 12,090 and also crucially 12,000 may well lead to a move to last significant resistance at 11,670.  The daily chart also supports this hypothesis, with a rising wedge forming over the last week and a spinning top candle yesterday suggesting market indecision.

However, if we look at the long term weekly chart, there appears to be a rising channel that dates back to 2004, which the Dow broke out of in October last year.  The top of that channel comes in right now, right below we are sitting, and so may provide some support for the markets.  If it does, and we get a rally from this level, I could see 2007 developing into a distributional year, something like 2004 as the general market absorbs 2006's gains.  This would develop as a falling wedge or flag, probably ranging between 11,600 and 12,600.  This doesn't mean we have hit a market top, but would mean we would see a lot more rallies and breakdowns than we have in the last 6-9 months.

Obviously, I am only basing these thoughts on my read of the Dow chart as I see it, and I may be totally wrong.  I'd also very much like to hear from anyone who has any other thoughts.  Obviously the general direction of the market for 2007 is very important for us all, and  while technical analysis may have less validity for an instrument as huge as the dow it may give us at least some heads up on what to expect in the months ahead.

Late Climb Lifts Wall Street.......


3/12/2007


Stocks had a choppy session but found their footing late Monday and closed higher, spurred on by another round of merger news and lower oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 42.30 points, or 0.34% to 12,318.62. The index had spent much of the day near the flat line, and earlier was down as much as 30 points.

Nineteen of the Dow's 30 components finished in the black, led by gains of 1.9% or more in Intel (INTC:) and Boeing (BA:NYSE) .

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended up 3.75 points, or 0.27%, at 1406.60, and the Nasdaq Composite added 14.74 points, or 0.62%, to 2402.29.

Roughly 2.57 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.60 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 9 to 7.

Market subsector winners included the Amex Airline Index, which was higher by 1.3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index rose 0.9%, and the S&P Retail Index tacked on 0.5%.

Among losers, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index fell 2.2%. The Amex Oil Index slid 0.4%, and the Philadelphia/KBW Bank Index dipped 0.1%.

"The market ''shake-up'' of the past couple of weeks has done little to the top industry groups," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "We expect there may be more declines ahead that are likely to force money from the top-performing sectors toward the bottom. It has happened repeatedly in the past, and we expect the future to at least rhyme."

As is often the case, the new week started with the announcement of several takeover deals. The biggest will see New Jersey's Schering-Plough (SGP:) pay $14.5 billion for the Organon BioSciences unit of the Netherlands'' Akzo Nobel (AKZOY:Nasdaq) . Schering-Plough added 10 cents, or 0.4%, to $23.95.

Staying in the health care sector, UnitedHealth (UNH:) will acquire Sierra Health Services (SIE:) in a deal worth $2.6 billion. Sierra, which is valued at $43.50 a share in the transaction, jumped 15.8% to end at $41.57.

Another big arrangement will see acquisitive buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts take over Dollar General (DG:) for $7 billion, before the assumption of debt. Shares of Dollar General surged 25.6% to close at $21.07.

Elsewhere, Ford (F:) confirmed that it will sell its Aston Martin business in a deal that values the brand at $925 million. Ford will retain a $77 million stake in the business. The automakers shares eased 11 cents, or 1.4%, at $7.82.

As for earnings, video-game maker Take-Two (TTWO:) posted a narrower-than-expected fiscal first-quarter loss. Earnings and revenue for the quarter topped the Thomson First Call consensus. Still, the stock reversed earlier strength and finished down 20 cents, or 1%, at $20.07.

Among analyst moves, UBS downgraded embattled New Century Financial (NEW:) to reduce from neutral. The firm joins those who believe New Century will be forced to declare bankruptcy.

Shares of New Century, which started the year at $31.59, were halted for the session at $3.21 on the NYSE as the exchange reviewed the situation.

UBS also upgraded retailers Kohl's (KSS:) and J.C. Penney (JCP:) to buy from neutral. Kohl's was 0.3% higher, and J.C. Penney gained 1.5%.

Away from stocks, commodity prices were weaker. Energy was on the decline, with oil slipping $1.14 to finish at $58.91 a barrel. Natural gas fell 17 cents to $6.91 per million British thermal units. Gold gave back $1.70 at $650.30 an ounce.

Treasury prices edged higher in the absence of any economic releases. The 10-year note was up 10/32 in price, yielding 4.55%, and the 30-year bond was adding 17/32 to yield 4.69%.

Overseas, Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.8% at 17,292, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.6% to 19,442. London's FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX were each lower by about 0.1%.

Dow Looks sketchy with today's move lower.  Just bounced off Key support at 12,180.  My thoughts are that with the chart as it stands, a move below this level would signify a very negative tone for the week, and we will see further selling as the week progresses.  nex support below that is at 12,090.

Emerging markets are going to put the nail in the coffin for the markets. I expect a very bad day for the emerging markets starting soon... watch them closely when they open up later today.

Stocks Ease in Rally's Wake.......

3/22/2007


Stocks in the U.S. slipped early Thursday as traders digested their gains of the last three days and continued to comb over the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 30 points, or 0.2%, at 12,418, and the S&P 500 was off 3.5 points, or 0.3%, at 1431. The Nasdaq Composite was slipping 12 points, or 0.5%, to 2444.

Thus far this week, Wall Street has closed higher each day. First a string of mergers was responsible, then it was fairly solid housing news, and on Wednesday the driver was the hope that the Fed might push interest rates lower this year.

During the previous session, stocks were sluggish until the two-day Fed meeting wrapped up, and that spurred the Dow to a 1.3% gain and the Nasdaq to a 2% climb. Now, the Dow is just below the flat line for the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are back in positive territory.

The Fed ignited the prior Day's advance by leaving its target fed funds rate unchanged and removing comments about possible "additional firming" from its policy statement.

Though the central bank warned that core inflation measures have been somewhat elevated, and it expressed concern about weakness in housing, traders focused on the notion that any more rate increases aren't even on the Fed's radar.

After 17 consecutive hikes between mid-2004 and last June, the fed funds target has been steady at 5.25% for six meetings.

Earlier, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 316,000 last week. The less volatile four-week moving average also declined, dropping by 3,750 to 326,000.

Additionally, the Conference Board said its February index of leading indicators fell 0.5%, slightly below expectations. January's figure was revised to a decline of 0.3% from a rise of 0.1%.

Treasury prices were lower following the economic releases. The 10-year was down 3/32, yielding 4.55%, and the 30-year was losing 12/32 to yield 4.74%.

On the corporate side, Motorola (MOT:) was shedding 5.2% a day after saying that it would post a first-quarter loss and fall short of analysts'' sales targets by a wide margin.

Homebuilder KB Home (KBH:) fell after reporting a first-quarter profit of $27.5 million, or 34 cents a share. While earnings topped the Thomson First Call consensus, results were down 83% from a year ago, and the stock was recently falling 67 cents, or 1.4%, to $47.12.

On the research front, Bear Stearns upgraded Procter & Gamble (PG:) to outperform from peer perform, citing valuation. Meanwhile, JPMorgan reduced both GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:) and AstraZeneca (AZN:) to underweight from neutral.

Procter & Gamble was rising 1.1% to $63.62. GlaxoSmithKline was off 1.4% at $55.44, and AstraZeneca was down 1.3% at $55.95.

Elsewhere, commodities prices were higher. The front-month May crude contract was jumping by $1.49 to $61.10 a barrel. Natural gas tacked on 7 cents at $7.23 per million British thermal units.

Precious metals were rising. Gold was up $5 at $665 an ounce, and silver was higher by 13 cents at $13.45 an ounce.

Overseas markets followed U.S. indices higher. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% to 17,419, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.9% to 19,690. London's FTSE climbed 0.6% to 6293, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX jumped 1.7% to 6827.

Bull / Bear / or in the Middle

Been reading a lot lately on this subject and finding lots of interesting stuff on both sides.  Many are looking at past corrections, correlating the charts to the current situation and coming to the conclusion that this is really no different than past corrections and healthy for the market.

Well in most situations I would agree, but I'm currently in the camp that thinks things are a little different this time.  A popular recent correction was the Dow in Oct 1997, below are a couple of charts showing that correction and then what happened later in 1998.  Is it similar to todays situation or not.  I know the US debt is much higher now than it was then and the printing presses have been working overtime.  So I think it is a little different, I can't put the debt on the chart but I did add the USD as an indicator.

Now you will see that in 97-98 the dollar was strong and uptrending, the current situation is a little different and thus I think the outcome may be a little different over the long term.

Uptrend continuing, I will wait and see, best case is we go sloppy sideways for many months, worst case Bear is confirmed.

Mostly trying to sit on hands and wait for the dust to settle.

JMHO and subject to change without notice.

Quasi

Wall Street Cheers Deals.......

4/16/2007


Stocks jumped Monday as a stream of buyouts and solid earnings greeted the bulls to begin a new trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 108.33 points, or 0.86%, to 12,720.46, with 26 of the 30 components ending the day with gains. The S&P 500 advanced 15.62 points, or 1.08%, to 1468.47, reaching a 6 1/2-year high. The Nasdaq climbed 26.39 points, or 1.06%, to 2518.33.

The rise allowed the market to build on last week's gains, when the Dow was up 0.4%, the S&P added 0.6% and the Nasdaq increased 0.8%.

The major indices have now rebounded from losses suffered on Feb. 27, when a benchmark index in mainland China sank more than 9% and pressured U.S. markets. The Dow had its worst single-day pullback since the market reopened after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, dropping by as much as 546 points at one point.

"For now investors are enjoying the ride," Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "There's a lot of liquidity in the system. It says a lot towards the strength of the global economy. Now we have to look for the next catalyst. If this rally is going to continue, we need to see a pickup in some lagging sectors, such as consumer cyclicals."

About 2.69 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by an 8-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.78 billion shares, with winners outpacing decliners 7 to 3.

Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, noted that volume has been lighter than usual, so the market may not be gaining as much traction as it seems.

"What is happening is the market rises, but on little volume, but declines occur on heavier volume -- to us an indication that investors are more willing sellers than buyers," he said.

Though corporate earnings are starting to flood in, a round of dealmaking dominated the early headlines. The biggest takeover will see student lender Sallie Mae (SLM:) acquired by an investor group led by J.C. Flowers in a $25 billion transaction.

Shares of Sallie Mae soared 18.4% to close at $55.35 after the $60-a-share offer was disclosed.

Elsewhere, Google (GOOG:) set plans late Friday to pay $3.1 billion for Internet ad outfit DoubleClick in a bid to tap into the market for graphics-based advertising. Google rose $7.98, or 1.7%, to $474.27.

Meanwhile, the Day's earnings were generally positive for the top names on the schedule.

Citigroup (C:) said it earned $5 billion, or $1.01 a share, in the latest quarter, down from $5.56 billion and $1.11 a share a year earlier, but adjusted earnings of $1.18 were 9 cents better than estimates. Citigroup added $1.33, or 2.6%, to $52.93.

Drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY:) topped analysts'' first-quarter expectations and said it should earn $3.30 to $3.40 a share for the full year, up from its earlier target of $3.25 to $3.35. The stock ended up $1.52, or 2.7%, to $58.40.

Wachovia (WB:) posted a first-quarter profit of $2.3 billion, or $1.20 a share, an increase of 33% from the year-ago period. The Thomson First Call consensus was for earnings per share of $1.16. Shares of Wachovia climbed $1.08, or 2%, to $55.06.

Other reporters included toymaker Mattel (MAT:) , which posted a first-quarter profit that beat expectations. Excluding items, Eaton (ETN:) reported a first-quarter profit of $1.62 a share, topping estimates. Mattel dipped 0.9% to $28.10, while Eaton closed higher by 2.8% to $87.50.

Among ratings changes, Friedman Billings and Prudential downgraded shares of MedImmune (MEDI:) to market perform and neutral, respectively. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs upgraded Dow component Merck (MRK:) to neutral from sell.

MedImmune gained $1.25, or 2.8%, to $45.44, after billionaire investor Carl Icahn said he would not oppose a sale of the company. Merck tacked on 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $50.32.

Away from stocks, commodities finished mixed following a volatile session. Crude oil futures slipped by 2 cents at $63.61 a barrel. Gold finished up $4.60 to $694.50 an ounce.

"Once the initial dust settles, investors will have to keep an eye on oil and interest rates," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Those are two bearish pulls on the market. While they are not on the front burner at the moment, they are simmering in the background. If one or the other begins to boil over, it will be a negative distraction for investors."

On the economic front, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.7% last month, slightly above economists'' expectations. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.8% in March, also ahead of forecasts.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said business inventories rose 0.3% in February, in line with estimates.

Also, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said its Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a reading of 3.8 in April from 1.9 in March. The index was expected to jump, however, to 10.0.

Treasuries were higher for the day, as the 10-year note rose 8/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond added 20/32 to yield 4.89%. The dollar weakened against the world's major currencies.

Overseas, markets were in positive territory. Tokyo's Nikkei surged 1.5% to 17,628, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng soared 2.1% to 20,758. London's FTSE was up 0.8% at 6516, and Frankfurt's DAX gained 1.8% at 7338.

On Tuesday, earnings reporting will pick up, as results are expected from Intel (INTC:) , Yahoo! (YHOO:) , IBM (IBM:) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:) , among others.

Quote from: setravis on April 16, 2007, 08:47:01 PM
Though corporate earnings are starting to flood in, a round of dealmaking dominated the early headlines. The biggest takeover will see student lender Sallie Mae (SLM:) acquired by an investor group led by J.C. Flowers in a $25 billion transaction.

Shares of Sallie Mae soared 18.4% to close at $55.35 after the $60-a-share offer was disclosed.

I saw this yesterday and was wondering, does this not mean you could pick up shares of Sallie Mae right now for an easy $5 gain???   Why if th market knows the buyout is at $60 is the stock trading at $55??  Seems strange to me.

As for the Dow, I think we could see it test 12800 highs this week, but I would be careful, as I think doing so could be the catalyst for a bit of a sell-off.  The market has been clearly bullish, but may now be a bit extended (and as everyone has been saying, this rally has been on lower volume.  Two ineterpretations of the hourly chart below of the Dow: one is a rising wedge that just broke to the upside (light blue line) the other is a rising channel/wedge that comes in right around 12800 just now.  I'm not saying we couldn't see new highs in th near future, but it seems to me that there will probably be a bit of a struggle between 12600 and 12800 in the next week or two.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on April 17, 2007, 07:14:16 AM

Quote from: setravis on April 16, 2007, 08:47:01 PM
Though corporate earnings are starting to flood in, a round of dealmaking dominated the early headlines. The biggest takeover will see student lender Sallie Mae (SLM:) acquired by an investor group led by J.C. Flowers in a $25 billion transaction.

Shares of Sallie Mae soared 18.4% to close at $55.35 after the $60-a-share offer was disclosed.

I saw this yesterday and was wondering, does this not mean you could pick up shares of Sallie Mae right now for an easy $5 gain???   Why if th market knows the buyout is at $60 is the stock trading at $55??  Seems strange to me.

Seems Strange to me also.... :-\
I guess some things that take place in the market ,"I know I'm not wise enough to enlighten you the story"! ;D


Dow's Record Bid Stalled.......

4/17/2007

Gains in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:) and Coca-Cola (KO:) lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average within striking distance of its all-time closing high Tuesday, but the blue-chip average came up just short of a record.

At the end of trading, the Dow had added 52.58 points, or 0.41%, to 12,773.04, having briefly topped its best-ever finish of 12,786.64 earlier in the session. Of the 30 members of the index, 20 were higher, led by increases in J&J and Coke, both of which rose following their quarterly earnings reports.

Coke climbed $1.30, or 2.6%, at $51.57, and J&J advanced $1.53, or 2.4%, to $64.55.

Before the opening bell, Coke said first-quarter earnings topped analysts'' estimates by a penny on revenue that jumped 17% from last year to $6.1 billion.

J&J's first-quarter earnings fell to $2.6 billion, or 88 cents a share, from $3.3 billion, or $1.10 a share, a year ago. However, adjusted results topped the Thomson First Call analysts'' consensus of $1.05 a share.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 3.01 points, or 0.2%, to 1471.48, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 1.38 points, or 0.05%, at 2516.95.

Volume and breadth painted a different picture of the session. About 2.95 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 9-to-8 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.95 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 3 to 2.

"The lack of breadth was poor, so leadership in this case has narrowed," warned Edgar Peters, chief investment officer with Pan Agora. "In the near-term, that's a sign that we're close to a top. It may lead to nothing, but it's something to be concerned about."

Still, the major indices have completely rebounded from losses suffered on Feb. 27, when a benchmark index in mainland China sank more than 9% and pressured U.S. markets. The Dow had its worst single-day pullback since the market reopened after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, dropping by as much as 546 points at one point.

For the year, the Dow has now added 2.5%, the S&P 500 has risen 3.7%, and the Nasdaq has pieced together a gain of 4.2%.

Helping the overall mood were positive data on inflation and the housing sector. The Labor Department's consumer price index for March showed no big surprises. The CPI was up 0.6%, matching expectations. The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, slightly below estimates.

Core inflation, a closely monitored figure, is now up 2.5% over the past 12 months, down 0.2 percentage points from February's level. The data follow the recent producer price index, which rose a greater-than-expected 1% last month. The core PPI was unchanged.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the government said U.S. housing starts jumped 0.8% in March to 1.518 million annualized units. Building permits also rose 0.8%, to 1.544 million, last month. On average, economists expected March starts to total 1.50 million, and for permits to dip to a 1.51 million annual pace.

"The March up tick is a bit of a surprise, but the trend is still clearly downward, and we expect a renewed softening in April," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "With a huge inventory overhang, there is no reason for homebuilders yet to do anything but cut back further."

Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, noted that core consumer price inflation remains above Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's target range of 1% to 2%, adding that relief from this inflation isn't likely before fall of this year.

"The Federal Reserve will not likely be able to accomplish both moderate inflation and reasonable [gross domestic product] and employment growth," he said. "Faced with choosing between instigating a recession or an inflation spiral it cannot much slow, the best policy course will be to do nothing."

In other economic news, the Fed said industrial production fell 0.2% in March, compared with estimates of a 0.1% rise. Capacity utilization declined to 81.4% from a revised 81.6%, also below expectations.

Treasury prices rose following the data. The 10-year note ended up 13/32, yielding 4.68%, and the 30-year bond was adding 22/32, yielding 4.84%. The dollar was lower against the world's major currencies.

Traders digested the latest torrent of earnings reports. Aside from Dow members, many financial names were also out with results. Wells Fargo (WFC:) , SunTrust Banks (STI:) , KeyCorp (KEY:) and Regions Financial (RF:) all topped estimates.

U.S. Bancorp (USB:) , however, came in below the consensus target. Shares lost 34 cents, or 1%. to $34.56.

After Tuesday's close, three tech heavyweights released their results. IBM (IBM:) posted a first-quarter profit of $1.84 billion, or $1.21 a share, up 8% from the year-ago quarter and in line with expectations. Intel (INTC:) also matched forecasts for first-quarter earnings.

Yahoo! (YHOO:) posted stronger-than-expected earnings, but a revenue miss sent shares sliding after hours.

Away from stocks, commodities lost momentum and finished lower on the day. Crude oil futures fell 51 cents at $63.10 a barrel, and gold gave back $1 to $693.50 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks were mixed in Asia and in Europe. Tokyo's Nikkei shed 0.6% to 17,527, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.2% at 20,789. London's FTSE lost 0.3% at 6499, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was up 0.2% at 7349.

Dow Claws Way to Record.......

4/18/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high Wednesday, as component stocks JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) and United Technologies (UTX:) ran up after their latest quarterly earnings reports.

The Dow rose 30.80 points, or 0.24%, to 12,803.84, and exceeded its old best-ever finish of 12,786.64 set on Feb. 20. Still, of the 30 members of the index, only 11 finished with gains.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was hit by a slump in Internet heavyweight Yahoo! (YHOO:) and fell 6.45 points, or 0.26%, to 2510.50. Yahoo! disappointed investors with its earnings report after the previous close, and its shares dropped 11.8% to close at $28.31.

The S&P 500 was higher by 1.02 points, or 0.07%, to close at 1472.50.

"Obviously, the market continued to focus on the good news, which is the strong earnings so far," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "The market is ignoring some of the negatives, such as the price of oil and the falling dollar. Somewhere along the line, we'll start to reflect on the negatives, but for now the mood is strong."

Despite the losses suffered on Feb. 27, when a benchmark index in mainland China sank more than 9% and pressured U.S. markets, the major indices are higher for the year. Thus far, the Dow has added 2.7%, the S&P 500 has risen 3.8%, and the Nasdaq has pieced together a gain of 3.9%.

Helping lift the Dow was JPMorgan, who beat estimates by a wide margin and set plans for a $10 billion stock buyback. Fellow Dow member United Technologies topped analysts'' earnings and revenue expectations for the latest quarter and reaffirmed its forecast for the fiscal year.

JPMorgan added $1.89, or 3.8%, to $52.07. United Technologies tacked on 74 cents, or 1.1%, to finish at $66.92.

While volume was strong, breadth still remained an issue for bulls. About 2.97 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.08 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 3 to 2.

"That tells me we're setting ourselves up for a fall," said Cardillo. "We had a fairly substantial correction and then made that back over a short amount of time. The odds are piling up towards a vivacious pullback."

Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management, said that despite the market's rally, traders need to be cautious for the near term.

"The recent market strength can be attributed to traders focusing too much on first-quarter earnings reports," he said. "The market will have to face the reality that we're in a softening economy, with stubborn inflation, weaker manufacturing, a weaker housing market, slowing business spending, a weak U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices."

Aside from Yahoo!, another stock that finished lower was IBM (IBM:) , who said first-quarter profits met estimates as revenue rose 7%. However, IBM was downgraded by Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, and the stock lost $2.32, or 2.4%, to $94.80.

Providing something of an offset was Intel (INTC:) , whose shares rose 37 cents, or 1.8%, to $21.35 after its own quarterly numbers. Both IBM and Intel are in the Dow.

As a new day dawned, the earnings parade continued to gather steam. Among them, Motorola's (MOT:) first quarter was in line with expectations, but the company warned that its current quarter results could fall short of the consensus target. Still, shares added 27 cents, or 1.5%, to $18.22.

Other reporters included The Bank of New York (BK:) , whose adjusted first-quarter earnings of 59 cents a share beat estimates by 2 cents. Netflix (NFLX:) missed targets by 2 cents a share and offered weaker-than-expected guidance.

Shares of The Bank of New York slipped 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $41.45. Netflix tumbled $2.26, or 9.4%, to end the day at $21.70.

Away from stocks, Treasuries were on the rise. The 10-year note was up 7/32 in price, yielding 4.65%, and the 30-year bond was ahead by 16/32, yielding 4.81%. The dollar continued to soften against the euro and the yen.

Energy prices inched higher following the latest weekly report on inventory levels. Crude futures rose 3 cents to close at $63.13 a barrel, while natural gas ended up 8 cents at $7.50 per million British thermal units.

The Energy Department's latest weekly inventory figures showed a decline of just 1 million barrels in crude inventories. Gasoline stocks fell by a greater-than-expected 2.7 million barrels, while distillates were lower by only 800,000 barrels.

Metals prices were little changed. Gold added 80 cents to $693.30 an ounce, and silver was off 5 cents at $13.97 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were mixed in Asia and dropping in Europe. Tokyo's Nikkei added 0.8% to 17,667, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.06% to 20,777. London's FTSE shed 0.6% to 6460, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was losing 0.9% to 7282.

The earnings torrent will continue at full force on Thursday. Among those scheduled to report are Google (GOOG:) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) , American Express (AXP:) , homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI:) and Merck (MRK:) .

Dow Storms to New High....... ;D

4/20/2007


The New York market bounced Friday, led by a 1.2% surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at a record high for the third straight session.

After two days of minor advances, the Dow caught a bid and jumped 153.35 points to 12,961.98. Overall, the index recorded its seventh consecutive gain, and just two of its stocks declined.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 was up 13.62 points, or 0.93%, at 1484.35, and the Nasdaq added 21.04 points, or 0.84%, to 2526.39.

Upbeat profit news, especially from Internet search provider Google (GOOG:) , had the bulls in charge from early on.

"We've had incredible earnings that have blown away targets, which is definitely driving the market," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "Expectations were so low and results are coming in so much higher. So far, the internals look pretty good. This is the first day all the sectors have really kicked in."

Among subsector indices, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index added 2.1%, the Amex Gold Bugs Index gained 1.2%, and the S&P Retail Index climbed 1.1%. On the losing side, the Amex Airline Index tumbled 1.5%.

For the week, stocks rose. The Dow added 2.8%, the S&P 500 was up 2.1%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.

About 3.16 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 3-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.11 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 2 to 1. That broke a three-day streak where more stocks fell than climbed.

"With the market breadth lagging the last three days, the question now is if the headwinds will still hit us," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "It's hard for me to believe we're going to continue going up and up in this overbought condition."

Even so, Google provided the market with plenty of momentum. After the previous session's close, the company said it had first-quarter earnings, before items, of $3.68 a share on revenue of $2.53 billion. Both the figures were much stronger than analysts had been forecasting.

Shares of Google climbed $10.83, or 2.3%, to finish the day at $482.48.

Not nearly as fortunate was chipmaker AMD (AMD:) , whose quarterly loss was well off the mark. However, the company gave investors a bit of a good news after saying it wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a private equity deal if the right transaction came along. AMD shed 12 cents, or 0.8%, to $14.16.

As for the new Day's reports, Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) beat earnings targets and raised its guidance for the full year, noting strength in overseas economic conditions. The news sent the construction giant's shares surging 4.7% to $71.82, making it one the Dow's best performers.

Fellow Dow component Pfizer (PFE:) posted earnings that were better than expected, but the drugmaker took down its full-year forecast for profits, the low end of which would be more than 10 cents short of what Wall Street wanted to see. Pfizer finished lower by 10 cents, or 0.4%, at $26.97.

Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON:) handily topped estimates, while another Dow member, McDonald's (MCD:) , matched the first-quarter earnings target.

Honeywell rose 4.8% to $51.40. McDonald's joined Pfizer as the only other Dow decliner, finishing down 0.9% at $48.36.

American Express (AXP:) said after the prior close that profits rose 21% from the previous year and beat the Thomson First Call consensus. American Express climbed $2.05, or 3.5%, to $61.

Oil-services concern Schlumberger (SLB:) had earnings and revenue that exceeded analysts'' estimates, while software maker SAP (SAP:) had operating income and total sales that were a bit shy of consensus targets. Schlumberger was higher by 1.2% at $75.23, and SAP added 2.5% to close at $50.39.

Away from earnings, H&R Block (HRB:) set plans to sell its Option One mortgage business to a Cerberus Capital affiliate in a roughly $1 billion deal. Shares of H&R Block rose 73 cents, or 3.3%, to $22.56.

Turning to the bond market, Treasuries lost ground in the absence of any economic data. The 10-year note was down 1/32 in price, yielding 4.67%, and the 30-year bond was falling 6/32, yielding 4.85%.

As for commodities, the May crude oil contract, trading for the last time, added $1.55 to close at $63.38 a barrel. Gold gained $7.50 to $695.80 an ounce, and silver was higher by 22 cents to $13.96 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were stronger in Asia and in Europe. Tokyo's Nikkei added 0.5% to 17,452, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.3% to 20,566. London's FTSE rose 0.7% to 6486, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX jumped 1.4% to 7342.

Oil Decline Perks Up Dow.......

4/24/2007


A slide in crude futures helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average overcome a pair of cooler-than-expected economic reports and move toward 13,000 Tuesday, but the index ultimately came up short.

When trading ended, the Dow had a gain of 34.54 points, or 0.27%, at 12,953.94. The index fell as many as 18 points before rising briefly to a record intraday high of 12,989.86.

Even so, only 14 of the blue-chip measure's 30 components were in positive territory, led by a rise of 3.5% in IBM (IBM:) .

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite had rocky sessions and closed little changed. The S&P slipped 0.52 point, or 0.04%, to 1480.41, and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.87 point, or 0.03%, to 2524.54.

Partly responsible for the Dow's advance was a selloff in oil. The new front-month June contract pierced the $66 level for a time, but reversed ground and finished lower by $1.31 at $64.58 a barrel. Other energy prices were mixed.

On the New York Stock Exchange, about 3.06 billion shares changed hands, and decliners edged advancers by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.25 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 8 to 7.

Among subgroup indices, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index jumped 2.9%, and the Philadelphia Utility Index rose 0.6%.

On the losing side, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index sank 1.3%, the S&P Retail Index eased 0.4%, and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index was lower by 0.3%.

When the market opened, a number of solid corporate earnings reports led to early gains. However, the buyers headed for the exits after the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales fell 8.4% in March to 6.12 million annualized units, the largest drop in more than 18 years.

Analysts had been planning on a decline, but only to a 6.50 million pace from 6.69 million in February.

"This looks awful but it is surely just the reversal of the favorable weather effects, which boosted January and February sales," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "In the wake of the subprime blowup, it seems reasonable to expect a higher application-rejection rate and tighter terms."

Meanwhile, another disappointment came when the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 104.0 in April, down from 108.2 the previous month. Economists had expected a reading of 105.0.

Treasury prices were higher following the data. The 10-year note climbed 5/32 in price to yield 4.62%, and the 30-year bond added 10/32 to yield 4.80%. The dollar dropped against the yen and the euro.

Among the earnings, DuPont (DD:) topped analysts'' first-quarter estimates and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, while AT&T (T:) was also better than expected.

DuPont gained 67 cents, or 1.4%, to $49.86. AT&T ended down 67 cents, or 1.7%, to $39.10.

Texas Instruments (TXN:) , whose shares rose 7.7% to $34.92 a day after the company lifted its second-quarter projection, wasn't able to provide much support for the tech space.

Also in tech, telecom-equipment maker Alcatel Lucent (ALU:) continues to act like its former stand-alone U.S. component, cautioning that it will likely post a first-quarter operating loss on sluggish sales. Still, shares rose 59 cents, or 4.7%, to $13.16.

Elsewhere, Whirlpool (WHR:) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.55 a share, handily beating the Thomson First Call consensus. U.S. Steel (X:) also blew away estimates, but revenue came in below expectations.

Whirlpool jumped 13.8% to close at $102.85, a new 52-week high, but U.S. Steel slumped 3.7% to $103.04.

Away from earnings, Toyota (TM:) said first-quarter sales rose 9% from a year ago to 2.35 million vehicles, allowing it, for the moment, to surpass General Motors (GM:) as the world's biggest carmaker by volume. Toyota lost 98 cents, or 0.8%, to $123.89. GM ended up 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $30.77.

Turning to the Day's research reports, A.G. Edwards cut its rating on oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM:) to hold from buy, in part based on the stock's valuation. Shares edged down 60 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $78.60.

Citigroup upgraded chipmaker SanDisk (SNDK:) to buy from hold, taking its stock price target to $52 from $44. Shares of SanDisk gained $1.68, or 4%, to $43.54.

Overseas, markets were mixed in Asia, where Tokyo's Nikkei ticked lower by 0.02% to 17,452 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.08% to 20,573. Europe was generally weaker, with London's FTSE giving back 0.8% to 6429 and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX losing 0.9% at 7270.

Another Milestone for Dow....... ;)

Close above 13,000 for the first time in its history !  ;D


4/25/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average thundered to yet another record Wednesday, as an upswing in Alcoa (AA:NYSE) and a string of strong corporate earnings helped the index close above 13,000 for the first time in its history.

The Dow jumped 135.95 points, or 1.05%, to 13,089.89, and earlier hit an intraday record of 13,107.45. Overall, 29 of the average's 30 members finished in positive territory, with 3M (MMM:NYSE) the only weak spot.

Boosting the index was news that component stock Alcoa will consider selling its packaging and consumer segment, along with another unit. Alcoa jumped 5.3%, making it the Dow's best performer.

As for the other major indices, the S&P 500 climbed 15.01 points, or 1.01%, to 1495.42, and the Nasdaq Composite was better by 23.35 points, or 0.92%, at 2547.89.

"The market is looking for the good news in things and is ignoring the bad news," said Jim Dunnigan, chief investment officer for PNC Wealth Management. "There's been a lot of overall enthusiasm, thanks to liquidity, positive earnings, M&A activity and economic data. As long as we keep getting positive news, we have a shot to hold these gains."

Volume and breadth improved greatly. About 3.19 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners edging advancers by an 11-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.70 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 3 to 2.

Among the market's subindices, the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index jumped 3.4% and was one of the Day's top performers. Elsewhere, the S&P Retail Index added 1.3%, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index finished higher by 1.2%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index gained 0.8%.

Supporting the tech space was a terrific set of results from Internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN:) , whose shares surged 27% to $56.81. Amazon said after the prior close that its first-quarter results were much better than had been expected, and it also lifted its revenue forecast for the year.

"We continue to receive better-than-expected earnings reports along with some encouraging economic news and more M&A activity," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "Earnings are coming in much better than expected, and the market is feeling pretty positive on this news."

The Federal Reserves regional business survey, known as the beige book, also helped to boost the indices following its 2 p.m. EDT release. The report said that U.S. economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace between late February and April. Consumer prices remained generally stable or increased modestly, and consumer spending was generally positive, according to the report.

This being the heart of earnings, dozens of companies reported results. Among them, Boeing (BA:) and General Dynamics (GD:) beat estimates, and WellPoint (WLP:) met Wall Street's targets. Boeing shares added 1.1% for the session, while General Dynamics slid 0.9% and WellPoint sank 4.1%.

Becton Dickinson (BDX:) raised its projections, and Corning (GLW:) guided in line. PepsiCo (PEP:) topped analysts'' consensus views and reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2007. All three finished the session with gains.

Following the closing bell, Apple (AAPL:) reported a huge quarter, and Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq) offered an improved outlook.

Turning to the Day's research reports, both Bear Stearns and Calyon Securities reduced their ratings on airline JetBlue (JBLU:) to peer perform and neutral, respectively. Shares of JetBlue shed 40 cents, or 3.7%, to $10.31.

Elsewhere, Citigroup upgraded Whirlpool (WHR:) to hold from sell, a day after the company reported solid quarterly results. Jefferies raised its rating for apparel retailer Limited (LTD:) to buy from hold.

Whirlpool, which jumped nearly 14% during the prior session, advanced another $4.55, or 4.4%, to $107.40. Limited finished up 44 cents, or 1.5%, at $29.30.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods increased a better-than-expected 3.4% in March, compared with a revised rise of 2.4% in February. Economists had anticipated a 2.5% gain. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% in March, also better than forecasts.

Separately, the Commerce Department said new-home sales rose 2.6% last month to 858,000 units. However, the number came in below estimates for an increase to 885,000 units.

Treasuries were weaker. The 10-year note lost 4/32 in price to yield 4.64%, and the 30-year bond was off 9/32 to yield 4.83%.

Meanwhile, energy prices soared after the Energy Department's weekly inventory report. The front-month June contract ended higher by $1.26 to $65.84 a barrel, and natural gas was up 9 cents at $7.69 per million British thermal units.

The report showed a rise of 2.1 million barrels in crude inventories. Gasoline stocks fell by a greater-than-expected 2.8 million barrels, the 11th straight weekly decline, while distillates were nearly unchanged.

Metals prices were little changed. Gold ended down 30 cents to $687.40 an ounce, and silver eased by a penny at $13.77 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were down in Asia, where Tokyo's Nikkei lost 1.2% to 17,236 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.2% to 20,536. Europe was generally stronger, with London's FTSE gaining 0.5% to 6462 and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX adding 1% at 7343.

Providing a lift for Europe was an announcement that the Royal Bank of Scotland will lead a $98 billion effort to keep Barclays (BCS:) from buying Dutch bank ABN Amro (ABN:) .

Barclays and ABN struck a $91 billion agreement earlier this week, but a competing buyout proposal wasn't entirely unexpected. Barclays gained 3% at $58.58, and ABN was higher by 5.2% at $49.86.

The Market Story
Profits Trump Weak Growth, Dollar in Rally.......

4/26/2007


Asian and European economies are growing like weeds, while the U.S. may register its weakest quarter yet in this economic slowdown.

But the combination of weak U.S. economic growth, a weak dollar and better-than-expected profit growth are turning out to be the perfect recipe for U.S. stock investors.

The recent bullish attitude toward positive earnings surprises continued to trump any economic concerns Thursday. Stocks again rallied as traders awaited both Microsoft's third-quarter earnings report and the Commerce Department's first stab at first-quarter GDP.

"Bulletproof is the mindset of the markets right now," says Randy Diamond, trader at Miller Tabak. Diamond says investors expected Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) to surprise to the upside, and they expect the Commerce Department to deliver a weak report.

So far, Microsoft has delivered. The technology company reported a 32% year-over-year rise in its earnings and beat Wall Street expectations. Shares were up 4.5% in after-hours trading. Others delivered strong reports as well. Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) blew past expectations late Wednesday, while 3M (MMM:NYSE) , Ford (F:NYSE) and Exxon (XOM:NYSE) also posted better-than-expected reports Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average screamed past the 13,000 mark Wednesday and didn't look back. The Dow closed up 0.1% at 13,105.50 while the Nasdaq Composite finished 0.3% higher Thursday at 2554.46. The S&P 500 closed down 0.8% at 1494.25.

"If the markets get a positive Microsoft and an in-line GDP number, the bulls will cast their eyes toward another record," says Diamond, referring to a record high close in the S&P 500. The broad index's record high is 1527.46, registered on March 24, 2000, and it is just a little more than 30 points away.

Halfway There

Microsoft has delivered its end of that bargain. Now it's the government's turn.

Analysts expect the Commerce Department's first of three estimates of first-quarter output to register 1.8%, well below trend growth of 3% and lower than the fourth quarter's 2.5% growth.

The pace of consumer spending, which comprises about 70% of GDP, is likely to remain a positive, says John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service. He believes spending will grow at about 3% year-over-year in the quarter.

But on the other side of the ledger, housing -- or residential construction spending, about 8% of GDP -- will remain weak, and business investment spending may be softer than in recent quarters, says Lonski. Likewise, economists say trade, or exports -- which had been a driver of higher-than-expected GDP estimates in prior quarters -- may not see another big gain in the first quarter.

Some say the government has measurement problems, and that traders should not pay too close attention to this first estimate. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at IDEAglobal, notes that the Federal Reserve warned that flaws in estimating auto sector industrial production would mean the initial GDP estimate will underestimate the true rate of growth.

But Lonski notes that quibbling over 1.2% or 2.2% may not be so useful. Rather, the GDP report will tell us about the consumer, about inflation in the core PCE deflator, and about the soft business spending that Federal Reserve officials have mentioned in recent speeches and testimony. Whatever the number, "below-trend is practically a foregone conclusion," says Lonski.

What it may finally say is that while investors certainly don't cheer weak growth forever, as long as it is bringing down inflation, staving off rate hikes, and not threatening profits too much, it's just fine.

Dow Still Goes Pow....... ;D

4/27/2007


Wall Street endured a lackluster session Friday after a mixed batch of economic data, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average ultimately edged up to finish a strong week with yet another all-time closing high.

The Dow advanced roughly 15.44 points, or 0.12%, to 13,120.94. Despite the gain, only 12 of its 30 components finished in positive territory, helping to overcome a 2.7% decline in General Motors (GM:) .

The S&P 500 ended lower by 0.18 point, or 0.01%, at 1494.07, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.75 points, or 0.11%, at 2557.21.

After setting three consecutive record closing highs, the Dow gained 1.2% over the five sessions. The S&P 500 was ahead by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq added 1.2%.

The major averages pieced together gains amid an earnings torrent of several large-cap names, as well as mixed data that have left many traders still unsure about inflation and economic growth.

Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, doesn't especially like what he sees. "The market isn't trading well at all lately," he said "The advance-decline line has been terrible. Volume has been higher on down days, and there's been a persistence of that. At worst, we're setting in a short-term top, so we're going to see the market come down."

Indeed, volume and breadth ended the week worse than Thursday's levels. About 2.73 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.13 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 3 to 2.

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial, said that the market is now at an overbought level after another strong week, which means it has now been on the rise for the fourth week in a row.

"It's a matter of when we pull back and from what point do we start the decline," said Mendelsohn. "The market has been acting so strange. Traders just keep buying, and they have no fear."

The Dow opened lower after new government data showed that the domestic economy grew at a much weaker rate during the first quarter than expected. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose 1.3% last quarter, down from a 2.5% annual pace in the fourth quarter.

Economists expected the reading to show a rise of 1.8%. The year-over-year change in inflation remained at 2.2%, a figure that's still a bit outside the Federal Reserves comfort zone.

The advance GDP report is the first of three that will be released on the quarter.

Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, said that the housing sector and the trade deficit were the main reasons for the lower-than-expected number.

"The trade deficit subtracted 0.52 [points] from growth," he said. "This loss was held down by a dramatic drop in crude oil and refined petroleum product imports in February that cannot be sustained. The trade deficit will subtract from GDP growth for the balance of 2007."

At the same time, the employment cost index rose 0.8%, a bit below the 0.9% forecast. Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8% in the first quarter, compared with a rise of 4.2% in the fourth.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's revised consumer sentiment report for April showed a bigger-than-expected rise to 87.1, up from the preliminary 85.3. Analysts expected a reading of 85.5.

Treasuries were little changed following a volatile morning. After starting lower, the 10-year note was flat in price to yield 4.70%, and the 30-year bond was down 1/32 in price to yield 4.88%. The dollar was weakening against the euro and the yen.

Following the last session, Dow component stock Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) helped the industrials continue their climb, saying revenue for its third fiscal quarter ended March 31 jumped 32% to $14.4 billion, topping estimates of $13.9 billion.

The software giant also easily exceeded analysts'' profit estimates, and its shares finished up $1.02, or 3.5%, to $30.12.

Elsewhere, earnings continued to roll in before the new session got under way. Among them, ITT Industries (ITT:) , Waste Management (WMI:) and Burger King (BKC:) all beat estimates.

Chevron (CVX:) posted a first-quarter profit that rose 18% from a year earlier, easily topping Wall Street's targets. Still, Chevron gave back 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $78.08.

The chip sector was under pressure following cautious comments from SanDisk (SNDK:) . The company swung to a first-quarter loss, compared to a profit from a year ago, and warned that tough market conditions will weigh on margins into the summer.

SanDisk shares lost $1.19, or 2.6%, to $43.83, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index slumped 1.5%.

On the research front, UBS upgraded XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:) and Sirius (SIRI:) to buy from neutral. XM added 1.7% to close at $11.98, and Sirius rose 2.7% to $3.04.

At Stifel, Amazon.com (AMZN:) was downgraded to hold in the wake of the big run-up that followed its terrific quarterly report earlier this week. Shares dipped 18 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $62.60.

Elsewhere, commodities ended the day higher. Crude oil retraced early losses and jumped $1.40 to finish at $66.46 a barrel. Among precious metals, gold added $3.80 to $681.80 an ounce, and silver was higher by 12 cents to $13.44 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were lower in Asia, where Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.2% to 17,400 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.7% to 20,526. Europe was generally weaker as well, with London's FTSE losing 0.8% to 6418 and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX off 0.1% at 7378.

Dow Hits Another Record....... :P

5/1/2007


The New York market was aimless for much of the session Tuesday, but stocks came to life in the afternoon and closed to the upside.

By rising 73.23 points, or 0.6%, to 13,136.14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its fourth record finish in the last five days. The S&P 500 gained 3.93 points, or 0.3%, to 1486.30, and the Nasdaq Composite ended up 6.44 points, or 0.3%, at 2531.53.

Before running up, stocks had struggled for several hours after the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales fell 4.9% in March, compared with a 0.7% rise the previous month. Sales are now down 10.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that the drop in pending home sales caught the market by surprise, as many were anticipating that sales would rise 0.5%.

"The warm March weather ought to have persuaded more people to go house-hunting, and that in turn ought to have increased the number of contract signings, which is what the pending sales index measures," he said. "This might therefore be the first sign that existing sales will undershoot mortgage applications, perhaps as a result of tighter credit."

At the same time, positive data came from the Institute for Supply Management, who said its factory sector index rose to a reading of 54.7 in April. Economists expected the index to have inched higher to 51 last month from 50.9 in March. April's reading was the highest for the index in nearly a year.

Treasuries were mostly lower. The 10-year note was losing 3/32 to yield 4.64%, and the 30-year bond was down fractionally, yielding 4.81%.

The new session began with a boost from more generally positive earnings reports. Since the first quarter ended March 31, most of the companies offering their results have been better than analysts had been expecting, a fact that helped inspire Wall Street's substantial rally last month.

Among those out with numbers, Sirius (SIRI:) and Qwest (Q:) both beat estimates. However, Sirius eased 1.9% to $2.90, while Qwest gained 2.6% to $9.11.

Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG:) met the consensus profit estimates and said the current quarter should also be in line with forecasts. Still, the stock shed $1.57, or 2.4%, to $62.83.

Also on the losing side was Liz Claiborne (LIZ:) , which posted a big earnings shortfall and said its 2007 profits will be weak. Shares of the apparel maker slid $8.37, or 18.7%, to $36.35.

Agricultural giant Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:) also pulled back after the company beat sales forecasts for the quarter but missed estimates on the bottom line. The stock was down $2.10, or 5.4%, to $36.60.

Meanwhile, shares of Circuit City (CC:) dropped 5.3% after the electronics retailer said following the prior close that it now expects a first-quarter loss due to weak big-screen television sales. Circuit City also withdrew earnings guidance for the first half of fiscal year 2008, prompting five separate firms to downgrade the stock.

Away from earnings, shares of Dow Jones (DJ:) soared 55% to $56.20 after News Corp. (NWS:) made an unsolicited offer for the company.

News Corp.''s bid is worth $60 a share, a 65% premium above Dow's last closing price.

U.S. automakers were in focus after posting auto and truck sales for April. Ford (F:) said sales dropped 13% last month, while DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) reported a 1.6% rise in sales.

General Motors (GM:) sales were down 2.2%.

On the research front, Credit Suisse upgraded Research In Motion (RIMM:) to neutral from underperform, while Prudential downgraded Sprint (S:) to underweight from neutral and cut its price target on the stock by $1.

RIM was off 0.8% to $132.68. Sprint lost 0.8% to $19.88.

Elsewhere, Prudential upgraded Dow component Verizon (VZ:) to neutral from underweight. The firm also raised its stock price target for Verizon to $37 from $32. The stock was up 33 cents, or 0.9%, to $38.51.

UBS cut several airline names, including Continental Airlines (CAL:) , JetBlue (JBLU:) , Southwest Airlines (LUV:) , US Airways (LCC:) , UAL Corp. (UAUA:) and AMR (AMR:) .

As for commodities, June crude futures dropped $1.31 to close at $64.40 a barrel ahead of the Energy Department's weekly inventory report on Wednesday. Gold futures eased $6.20 to $677.30 an ounce.

Most overseas markets were closed for the May Day holiday. Among those open, Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.7% and London's FTSE was down 0.4%.

Dow Refuses to Quit.......

5/3/2007


A raft of encouraging economic data provided Wall Street with the fuel to continue its rally Thursday, and when the closing bell rang the Dow Jones Industrial Average had again reached a new all-time high.

The Dow rose another 29.50 points, or 0.22%, to 13,241.38, giving the index its sixth record finish in the past seven days.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 6.47 points, or 0.43%, to 1502.39, putting it above 1500 for the first time since 2000. The Nasdaq was better by 7.62 points, or 0.3%, at 2565.46.

Helping to spur the latest advance was news on the economic front. The Institute for Supply Management released its monthly services index, which showed an increase to a reading of 56 from 52.4 in March. Economists were expecting the index to rise slightly to 53.

The report comes two days after the ISM manufacturing index for April was also stronger than expected, going to 54.7 from 50.9 in March. On average, economists were looking for 51.

Elsewhere, the Labor Department said its preliminary read on first-quarter productivity indicated a rise of 1.7%, above projections of a 0.8% gain. Unit labor costs came in far below expectations, with only a 0.6% increase for the quarter.

Separately, the government said initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 305,000 last week. The less volatile four-week moving average increased by 4,500 claims to 328,750.

The claims report is the last before Friday's nonfarm payrolls data. Analysts believe the U.S. economy added 100,000 jobs during April and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% in March.

Before regular trading got underway, quarterly profit reports were again rolling in. Among those with results, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A:) and CBS (CBS:) both exceeded analysts'' estimates.

Royal Dutch rose 76 cents, or 1.1%, to $71.45. CBS gained 25 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $32.06.

Elsewhere, European drug giant Sanofi-Aventis (SNY:) raised its guidance for this year, while General Motors'' (GM:) first-quarter profit was roughly one-tenth of what it was a year ago after the carmaker took a big loss at its lending division GMAC.

Sanofi-Aventis fell 61 cents, or 1.3%, to $45.86. GM finished lower by $1.75, or 5.4%, to $30.69, making it the worst performer of the Dow's 30 components.

Among ratings changes, HSBC Securities upgraded MasterCard (MA:) to neutral from underweight, a day after the credit card provider handily beat first-quarter earnings targets. The firm also upped its stock price target to $132 a share from $77. The stock jumped $8.47, or 6.7%, to $134.82.

One day after the cable company said it will be taken private by its controlling family in a $10.5 billion transaction, Oppenheimer downgraded its rating for Cablevision (CVC:) to neutral from buy. The firm reiterated its stock price target of $34 a share. Still, Cablevision added 29 cents, or 0.8%, to $36.19.

Government bond prices in the U.S. lost ground. The 10-year Treasury was down 8/32 in price, pushing the yield up to 4.68%, and the 30-year bond fell 15/32, yielding 4.84%.

Commodities were mixed, as crude slid 49 cents to $63.19 a barrel, while gold climbed $9.30 to $684.40 an ounce.

Stocks were mostly higher overseas. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.4% overnight, and South Korea's Kospi added 0.4%. London's FTSE climbed 0.8%, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX and the Paris Cac 40 were a bit stronger.

Volume and breadth were weaker compared to Wednesday's levels. About 2.88 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 3-to-2 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.17 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 8 to 7.

Among subsector indices, the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index finished with a 1.3% gain, the Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 1%, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index added 0.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index gained 0.4%.

Dow Keeps Streak Alive.......

5/4/2007


Stocks in the U.S. edged to the upside Friday as a new round of deal talk, including a potential bid for Internet giant Yahoo! (YHOO:) , let traders look past a slightly soft employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23.24 points, or 0.18%, to 13,264.62, giving the index its seventh record close in the last eight days. The Dow set an all-time intraday high of 13,283.31 earlier, buoyed by a 2.2% gain in component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:) .

The S&P 500 added 3.23 points, or 0.21%, at 1505.62, and the Nasdaq tacked on 6.69 points, or 0.26%, at 2572.15.

The market ended yet another week solidly higher. While collecting four consecutive record finishes, the Dow gained 1.1% over the five sessions. The S&P 500 was higher by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq added 0.6%.

About 2.81 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 3-to-2 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.29 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 8 to 7.

Leading the news was a spate of merger speculation in the media and publishing space. Headlining the various chatter was a report that Microsoft (MSFT:) is preparing to go after Web search concern Yahoo! in what could be a blockbuster tie-up of tech titans.

According to the New York Post, Microsoft wants Yahoo! to enter formal discussions for what the report said could be a $50 billion transaction. Yahoo! surged nearly 10% to end at $30.98, while Microsoft dipped 41 cents, or 1.3%, to $30.56.

Elsewhere, the U.K.''s Reuters (RTRSY:) news service said it has been approached by a potential buyer it didn't name. The stock soared $15.84, or 26.9%, to end the day at $74.76.

Meanwhile, Britain's EMI climbed in London trading after it said it has received buyout offers. According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan's (JPM:) private-equity division is one of the potential acquirers.

Already this week, Dow Jones (DJ:) , the publisher of The Wall Street Journal, said it's being courted by Rupert Murdoch, the media mogul behind News Corp. (NWS:) .

The family that controls Dow Jones has been split on the possible transaction, and the company's board said it wouldn't take any action for the time being.

Separately, benign employment numbers from the Labor Department suggested the Federal Reserve could be less inclined to push through new rate hikes, but at the same sparked some concern about the state of the economy.

The jobs report, one of the most important pieces of data the government releases every month, showed that 88,000 workers were added to U.S. payrolls in April. Economists had expected 100,000 positions to have been created.

The jobless rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, as had been anticipated. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation metric, rose a less-than-expected 0.2%.

In what is becoming fairly normal, job growth for the prior two months was revised, except this time the changes were to the downside. The government now says 26,000 fewer employees were put to work in March and February than had been first thought.

While jobs growth slowed, the small rise in wage growth could provide inflation comfort to the Fed. The central bank will meet for third time this year on May 9, but no change in the target fed funds rate is expected.

Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, said that the somewhat slower employment growth in April is consistent with the recent pickup in productivity and a modestly expanding economy.

"Moderate growth and rising labor productivity should keep wage inflation in check," he said. "Surging corporate profits, moderate growth and steady interest rates at home, and more robust foreign demand for U.S. equities should power up U.S. stock prices."

Among subsector indices, the Amex Airline Index finished with a 1.7% gain, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index climbed 1.1%. On the losing side, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index dipped 0.2%, and the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index ended with a 0.1% loss.

Bond prices moved higher after the data. The 10-year note was up 10/32 in price, yielding 4.64%, and the 30-year bond was advancing 17/32 to yield 4.80%.

As for commodities, June crude futures dropped $1.26 to $61.93 a barrel, a decline of 6.8% for the week. Gold was higher by $5.30 to finish at $689.70 an ounce, and silver tacked on 2 cents to end the week at $13.53 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks in Europe and Asia were on the rise. London's FTSE gained 1% to 6603, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was up 0.5% at 7517. The Paris Cac 40 added 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.8%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.5%.

Deal Talk Juices Dow.......

5/7/2007


Blue chips climbed again Monday as buyers cheered the continuation of Wall Street's merger frenzy to start the new week.

;D"The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its fifth straight all-time closing high" ;D, rising 48.35 points, or 0.36%, to 13,312.97. By ending to the upside, the Dow tied an 80-year-old record with 24 gains in 27 sessions.

So far in 2007, the industrials have racked up 20 best-ever finishes, and they've added 6.5% for the year.

As for the other major indices, the S&P 500 closed up 3.86 points, or 0.26%, to 1509.48, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped late in the session and finished lower by 1.20 points, or 0.05%, to 2570.95. The tech-laden index was pressured by Amazon.com (AMZN:) and Activision (ATVI:) , which fell 3.8% and 5.2%, respectively.

About 2.42 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.66 billion shares, but losers outpaced winners 8 to 7.

Among subsector indices, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index and the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index both ended with a 0.4% loss, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index eased 0.3%.

On the winning side, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Sector Index added 0.9%, and the Philadelphia Utility Sector Index finished up 0.8%.

Providing a boost for the old economy was word that a blockbuster merger could be set to take place in the industrial sector, where Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant Alcoa (AA:) said it was launching a bid to buy Canada's Alcan (AL:) for $27 billion. Alcoa finished higher by 8.3% at $38.63, and Alcan surged 34.5% to $82.11.

Alcan appears to be playing hard to get, but at any rate, the potential deal would be the latest in a host of takeouts and tie-ups this year, which is shaping up to be a mammoth one for M&A.

"We're awash with M&A activity, and that's clearly the focus," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "We have a positive bias because of that today, with little on the economic calendar to shift that focus."

However, Hogan said that focus could change on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will meet for third time this year. No change in the target fed funds rate is expected, but the language contained in the accompanying statement will be subject to close scrutiny.

"The key is going to be what they have to say about both the economy and inflation," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "Given the market's belief that the economy is doing just fine and inflation is coming down, the commentary from the Fed could key a large market move in either direction."

In other M&A news, shares of Armor Holdings (AH:) ended with a 5.4% gain after the U.K.''s BAE Systems said it would acquire the security and defense company for $4.1 billion, or $88 a share. The price tag represents a 7.1% premium from Armor's Friday closing price.

The latest round of deals comes following a big week for merger talk. Last week, News Corp. (NWS:) bid for Dow Jones (DJ:) , Reuters (RTRSY:) and Thomson (TOC:) were said to be exploring a merger, and rumors indicated that Microsoft (MSFT:) might pursue Yahoo! (YHOO:) .

While the earnings and economic calendars were light Monday, several firms made changes on stock ratings. On the upside, Bear Stearns raised its rating for Darden Restaurants (DRI:) to outperform from peer perform. Darden rose $2.29, or 5.3%, to $45.51.

Among downgrades, Prudential cut its rating for chipmaker Linear Technology (LLTC:) to underweight from neutral. The firm also lowered its stock price target to $33 a share from $37. Linear ended down 63 cents, or 1.6%, to $38.11.

Away from stocks, government bond prices crept higher. The 10-year Treasury was up 1/32 in price to yield 4.64%, and the 30-year bond added 7/32 to yield 4.79%.

In commodities, the energy complex gave up ground. Crude fell 46 cents to end the day at $61.47 a barrel, and gasoline slipped 3 cents to $2.18 a gallon. Gold edged higher by 70 cents to $690.40.

Overseas, markets in Asia rose, including a 1.6% gain for Tokyo's Nikkei and a 0.3% rise for Hong Kong's Hang Seng. Europe was little changed, with the Paris Cac 40 flat and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX tacking on 0.1%.

Bulls Hit Back Hard.......

5/11/2007


Stocks bounced back from their worst selloff in two months and returned to their rallying ways Friday, recovering a big chunk of the territory they surrendered during the prior session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 111.09 points, or 0.84%, to 13,326.22. Twenty-eight of the Dow's 30 components were in the black, led by 2.3% advance in ExxonMobil (XOM:) .

The S&P 500 was better by 14.38 points, or 0.96%, at 1505.85, and the Nasdaq added 28.48 points, or 1.12%, at 2562.22.

For the industrials, it was another positive week. This time, they gained 0.5% over the five sessions. However, the S&P 500 was higher by only a fraction of a point, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.4% for the week.

About 2.73 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 13-to-4 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.78 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 3 to 1.

Helping the market was a report from the Labor Department, whose producer price index for April showed that inflation was being contained at the wholesale level. The headline index rose 0.7%, which was slightly above projections, but the core index, excluding food and energy, was unchanged.

Economists had expected core PPI to rise 0.2%. The core rate advanced 1.5% year over year, down from March's 1.7% rise and within the Federal Reserves comfort range of 1% to 2%.

"Overall, this is a decent number," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "This is a little softer on the inflation front and, based on the Fed's statement on inflationary pressure earlier this week, this helps to abate fears."

On Monday, the consumer price index, viewed as the more important of the two measures, will be out.

However, all wasn't rosy on the economic front. The Commerce Department said that retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.2% last month, compared with forecasts of a 0.4% increase. Excluding autos, retail sales were flat in April, also well below forecasts.

"One bad month does not make a trend, especially when that month is April, when Easter seasonals can distort the real picture," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "But weakness in core sales is consistent with the surge in gas prices and the accompanying drop in consumers'' confidence."

The previous day, U.S. stock measures fell amid concerns about the pace of economic growth and a poor showing from the nation's chain-store operators.

The Dow dropped 147.74 points, or 1.11%, to 13,215.13. Only four of its 30 members escaped the sellers. Partly to blame for the decline was a report showing a much bigger trade gap for April than analysts had been expecting, which fueled worries about the strength of the economy.

For others, the damage was even worse. The S&P 500 plunged 21.11 points, or 1.40%, to 1491.47, and the Nasdaq tanked by 42.60 points, or 1.65%, to 2533.74.

Treasuries lost early momentum and settled lower late. The 10-year note was down 7/32 in price, yielding 4.67%, and the 30-year bond was off 13/32, yielding 4.85%.

Many subsector indices finished with gains. The Amex Gold Bugs Index added 1.8%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index gained 1.2%, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index tacked on 0.7%, and the Philadelphia/KBW Bank Sector Index finished up 0.6%.

The S&P Retail Index was one of few decliners, finishing with a loss of 0.2%.

Corporate news was on the light side. One of the names making headlines was Alcatel-Lucent (ALU:) , who said its first-quarter revenue fell 8% year over year. However, second-quarter sales should climb 10% sequentially, the company said. Alcatel rose 57 cents, or 4.4%, to end the day at $13.57.

Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN:) was hit with several downgrades, including moves by Citi and JPMorgan, a day after a group of advisers to the Food and Drug Administration said its anemia drugs needed more clinical tests and restrictions on their use.

The biotech company's stock fell hard after the recommendation, but Wachovia said the reaction was overly harsh. Amgen, which dropped 9.1% in the previous session, lost another 1.8% to $56.30.

Meanwhile, UBS upgraded chipmaker Applied Materials (AMAT:) to buy from neutral, while Citigroup cut its rating for Wendy's (WEN:) to hold from buy.

Applied Materials ended higher by 59 cents, or 3.1%, to $19.77. Wendy's added 79 cents, or 2%, to $40.58.

Among commodities, crude futures were better by 56 cents to close at $62.37 a barrel, and gold added $5.30 to $672.30 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks were weaker in Asia, while Europe saw gains. Tokyo's Nikkei lost 1% to 17,553, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave back 1.3% to 20,468. London's FTSE was 0.6% higher, and Frankfurt's DAX was up 0.9%.



Below are the 6 Month, 1 Year, 2 Year and 3 Year Charts

Stocks Wobble to Mixed Close.......

5/14/2007


Big buyout news in the automotive sector helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gains Monday, but tech stocks lost ground in a shaky session on Wall Street.

The Dow clawed back from a midsession selloff to rise 20.56 points, or 0.15%, to 13,346.78. The blue-chip average fell by as many as 29 points before rebounding.

The S&P 500 slipped 2.70 points, or 0.18%, to 1,503.15. The Nasdaq Composite shed 15.78 points, or 0.62%, to 2546.44, pressured by a 2.5% decline in Yahoo! (YHOO:) .

"The markets look like they're running out of gas, at least on a short-term basis," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "Technology stocks never really saw too much buying, and it appears that some profit-taking has started to build up."

Phillip Roth, chief technical market analyst with Miller Tabak, said it was encouraging that the market didn't tumble further after the Dow touched its low of the day.

"The early weakness was not followed by any accelerations, so we didn't really see a big price loss," he said. "The relatively poor action in small stocks continues. The market is hanging on, but there's deterioration. We're trying to make progress until we get a much weaker message."

Once again, a new week started with a big private-equity deal. In the latest one, Germany's DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) agreed to sell an 80% stake in its Chrysler Group unit to private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management.

The Chrysler Group buyout, worth $7.4 billion, unravels the 1998 mega-merger of Daimler-Benz and Chrysler, the No. 3 U.S. automaker. Shares of DaimlerChrysler gained 2.6% and finished at $84.12, while Ford (F:) added 4.1% and General Motors (GM:NYSE) jumped 3.9%.

Elsewhere in Germany, Merck KGaA's generic-drug business will be acquired by Mylan Laboratories (MYL:) for 4.9 billion euros ($6.63 billion). Mylan beat out Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA:) in the deal. Mylan tumbled 12.1% to $19.70, while Teva tacked on 0.1% at $39.98.

In the health care sector, shares of Viasys (VAS:) surged 36.9% to $43.18 after Cardinal Health (CAH:) said it will purchase the company in a deal worth $1.5 billion. The per-share price of $42.75 values Viasys at a 35% premium over Friday's closing price.

About 2.62 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.96 billion shares, as winners outpaced losers 2 to 1.

Many subsector indices finished with losses. The Amex Gold Bugs Index slumped 2%, the Philadelphia/KBW Bank Sector Index finished down 0.6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index fell 0.1%.

The Amex Oil Index was one of few advancers, finishing with a gain of 0.4%.

While U.S. indices finished mixed last week, Friday's session saw a bounce-back from the worst decline in two months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday up 111.09 points, or 0.84%, to 13,326.22. The S&P 500 was better by 14.38 points, or 0.96%, at 1505.85, and the Nasdaq added 28.48 points, or 1.12%, at 2562.22.

"Everyone is combing their favorite screens to ferret out the next possible takeover candidate," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "The continued increase in stocks is flying in the face of a decidedly weakening economy. The flip side to the economic numbers has been the huge amount of merger news."

The earnings and economic calendars were bare Monday, so traders were looking ahead to Tuesday's government's report on consumer price inflation for April. Economists expect that the headline number will rise 0.5%, while the core number, which excludes food and energy, will increase 0.6%.

The CPI data follow the latest read on producer prices. On Friday, the Labor Department said the headline index rose 0.7%, which was slightly above projections, but the core index was unchanged. Economists had expected core PPI to rise 0.2%.

"This should be the start of the summer doldrums," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor-Fitzgerald. "It usually takes the entire month of May to see the trend established, but the market appears poised to start a small top and then the much-anticipated pullback."

Government bond prices declined. The 10-year Treasury was down 4/32 in price to yield 4.69%, and the 30-year bond was off 5/32, yielding 4.86%.

Among commodities, the energy complex gained ground. Crude rose 9 cents to $62.46 a barrel, and natural gas added 5 cents to $7.93 per million British thermal units. Gold lost $2.20 at $670.10.

Overseas, Germany's Xetra DAX slid 0.3%, despite the Daimler headlines. Meanwhile, London's FTSE 100 eased 0.2% and the Paris Cac 40 dipped 0.4%. Overnight, Tokyo's Nikkei climbed 0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 2.5%.

On Tuesday, earnings reports will be back in the spotlight. Among companies expected to report are Wal-Mart (WMT:) , Home Depot (WMT:) , and Applied Materials (AMAT:) .

M&A Fires Up Stocks.......

5/18/2007


Stocks climbed anew Friday and led to another record for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the latest dealmaking got Wall Street's rally back on track.

The Dow rose 79.81 points, or 0.59%, to 13,556.53, putting it at yet another all-time closing high. The S&P 500 also made an attempt at a new benchmark, jumping 10 points, or 0.66%, to 1522.75, leaving it just short of its best close of 1527.46 set back in 2000.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was better by 19.07 points, or 0.75%, at 2558.45.

"Traders want to short this rally but aren't getting a break," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Technically, we are overbought. The momentum indicators are clearly diverging, heading down as price heads higher. Sooner or later, the bulls will have to come up for air, but the odds favor that it won't be for long."

About 2.89 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.02 billion shares. Winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

While the major averages finish the week strong, it has been anything but an easy ride. Lopsided trading has dominated. The Dow added 230 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% over the five sessions. The Nasdaq, however, lagged behind and ended the week slightly lower.

Merger and acquisition news supported the blue-chip averages, while semiconductor names have combined to sink the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Deals were struck for DaimlerChrysler's (DCX:) Chrysler Group, Reuters (RTRSY:) , and Alliance Data Systems (ADS:) , among others.

On the other hand, poor earnings from Applied Materials (AMAT:) sank the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index, which dropped 2.6% in total.

The last day of the week was no different on the M&A front. Leading the corporate news was word that General Electric (GE:) could be close to selling its plastics division for roughly $11 billion to Saudi Basic Industries. The report appeared in The Wall Street Journal, and it lifted shares of GE by 43 cents, or 1.2%, to $36.96.

Elsewhere, aQuantive (AQNT:) soared 77.8% to $63.79 after Microsoft (MSFT:) said it will acquire the Internet marketer for $6 billion in cash. The deal values shares of aQuantive at $66.50, an 83% premium over its close on Thursday.

Another key story came from overseas, where the government of China said it will modestly expand the trading band for the yuan against the dollar to half a percent above and below the so-called central parity rate. The current band allows for 0.3% fluctuations.

Critics of China's trade policy have long argued that the nation's officials intentionally keep their currency undervalued relative to the greenback, giving their export industries an unfair advantage over American companies. Lately, the dollar was lower against the yen and higher against the euro.

Few earnings reports were on the calendar, but British Airways (BAIRY:) said earlier that it had a loss in the fourth quarter, reversing a profit a year earlier.

On the research front, Citigroup upgraded Verizon (VZ:) to buy from sell and took Priceline.com (PCLN:) to buy from hold. The firm also downgraded Juniper Networks (JNPR:) to hold from buy.

Separately, JP Morgan lifted its rating on NYSE Euronext (NYX:) to neutral from underweight. The stock ended higher by 44 cents, or 0.5%, at $82.44.

Two European drugmakers received good news from the Food and Drug Administration, as the agency granted extended approvals for Lovenox from Sanofi-Aventis (SNY:) and Seroquel from AstraZeneca (AZN:) .

The lone release on the economic calendar was the University of Michigan's preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in May, which unexpectedly rose to 88.7 from 87.1 last month. Economists had anticipated the index would decline to 86.2.

As for commodities, energy prices ended up following a volatile session, with oil tacking on 8 cents to $64.94 a barrel. Elsewhere, Gold rose $4.80 to $662 an ounce, and silver gained 12 cents to $13 an ounce.

Shares in China ticked down in the wake of the decision on the yuan, with the CSI 300 Index losing 0.05% to 3777. Tokyo's Nikkei surrendered 0.6% to 17,400, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.4% at 20,905.

The FTSE 100 in London increased 0.9% at 6640, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX advanced 1.4% to 7607.

Crude Surge Hinders Rally.......

5/21/2007


The S&P 500 traded through its all-time closing high Monday, but a sharp increase in oil prices kept the big-cap index from holding on and making history.

At the end of trading, the S&P was up 2.35 points, or 0.15%, to 1525.10. Earlier, it pushed above its best-ever finish of 1527.46, set in March 2000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved deeper in to record territory, rising by as many as 30 points, before pulling back. The Dow ultimately lost 13.65 points, or 0.1%, at 13,542.88.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was the best performer of the bunch, better by 20.34 points, or 0.8%, at 2578.79.

For a time, the bulls appeared to be taking control of the session, but a steady advance in crude cut the rally short. June dated oil futures ended with a gain of $1.33 at $66.27 a barrel.

"The market was strong early, following last week's strength, but the shoot up in oil prices took the edge off," said Phillip Roth, chief technical market analyst with Miller Tabak. "I view this as an uptrend that is intact, but a lot of stocks are struggling. We'll continue to be choppy, and we probably will have a week without any progress."

About 3.31 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.93 billion shares, as winners outpaced losers 2 to 1.

On the corporate side, the newest round of takeovers was making headlines, including a roughly $25 billion deal for Alltel (AT:) . TPG, formerly Texas Pacific Group, will team up with the private-equity arm of Goldman Sachs (GS:) to acquire the wireless carrier, and Alltel rose $4.39, or 6.7%, to finish the day at $69.60.

Elsewhere, General Electric (GE:) confirmed that it will sell its plastics division for $11.6 billion to Saudi Basic Industries. GE, which said it expects the deal to close during the third quarter, was higher by 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $37.10.

Another transaction will see Hologic (HOLX:) purchase Cytyc (CYTC:) in a $6.2 billion combination that will unite two sellers of health care products for women. Cytyc surged $7.95, to 22.7%, to close at $43.

Lastly, Olin (OLN:) agreed to acquire fellow chlorine and caustic soda maker Pioneer (PONR:) for $35 a share, or $413 million. Shares of Pioneer jumped $4.81, or 16.4%, to $34.19.

"While just a bit fanciful, the markets are not interested in stopping or even slowing down for economic reports that conflict with the view that all is well in the world of investing," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "While the current euphoria over stock investing will likely last for a while longer, we are surprised at the few actual declines in the markets over the past two months."

A growing string of mergers and acquisitions, many of them led by private equity, has spurred an increase in the U.S. stock market in 2007. The Dow has collected more than 20 record highs.

On Friday, the Dow gained 79.81 points, or 0.59%, to 13,556.53, its loftiest close of all time, and the S&P advanced 10 points, or 0.66%, to 1522.75. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose 19.07 points, or 0.75%, at 2558.45.

"M&A and short-covering have kept this train chugging along, despite higher crude," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "The attention had been on the odds of a rate cut surrounding the last FOMC meeting. Since then, the economic news has looked stronger coming out of April, especially on the industrial side."

Several firms were altering stock ratings. Citigroup upgraded both Comcast (CMCSA:) and Time Warner Cable (TWC:) to buy from hold. Comcast was higher by a penny, or 0.1%, at $27.54. Time Warner Cable added 41 cents, or 1.1%, to $38.31.

Among downgrades, Bear Stearns cut its rating for Clear Channel (CCU:) to peer perform from outperform. The stock was off 16 cents, or 0.4%, to end at $38.07.

Away from equities, government bond prices were slightly higher in the absence of any economic releases. The 10-year Treasury was up 3/32 in price to yield 4.79%.

Precious metals dealt with a volatile session. Gold declined early but finished up $1.80 to $663.70 an ounce. Silver gained 13 cents to $13.13 an ounce.

Stocks were mostly higher overseas, where Tokyo's Nikkei climbed 0.9% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged up 0.1%. Frankfurt's DAX was better by 0.2%, while London's FTSE slipped 0.1%.

S&P Record Proves Elusive.......


5/22/2007


The S&P 500 made another push past its all-time closing high Tuesday, but once again the index wasn't able to hang on through the end of trading.

When the final bell rang, the S&P had surrendered 0.98 point, or 0.06%, to 1524.12, leaving it just shy of its best finish at 1527.46 set on March 24, 2000.

Much like the previous session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average see-sawed between positive and negative territory, and ultimately lost 2.93 points, or 0.02%, at 13,539.95. The Nasdaq drew buying interest and was higher by 9.23 points, or 0.36%, at 2588.02.

On Monday, a spike in oil prices got in the way of the S&P's attempt to close above the record. This time, crude dropped $1.30 to settle at $64.97 a barrel, but it wasn't enough to keep blue chips afloat.

"There's little in the way of economic data impacting the markets," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "Investors have been tentative in terms of buying, considering bond yields and energy prices have remained higher."

Sheldon added that the S&P 500 should continue to flirt with all-time highs for the immediate term, but that activity will likely trail off and profit-taking could set in as the Memorial Day holiday weekend approaches.

About 2.72 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.96 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 5 to 3.

As for major sector trackers, the Amex Gold Bugs Index fell 1.8%, the Amex Oil Index slumped 0.6%, and the S&P Retail Index slid 0.5%. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index jumped 1.9%, and the Amex Airline Index rose 2.6%.

Corporate news was on the light side, but several retailers were out with their quarterly results. Among them, BJ's Wholesale (BJ:) was in line with estimates, and AutoZone's (AZO:) profits were a bit better than expected.

Staples (SPLS:) had earnings that met the consensus forecast, though revenue was a little on the light side. The stock was off 62 cents, or 2.4%, at $25.05.

Computer Sciences (CSC:) said it would delay its earnings report to finalize its accounting methods. However, it offered preliminary results that essentially matched analysts'' targets.

That announcement came just hours after the company named President and Chief Operating Officer Michael Laphen to the position of chief executive, effective immediately. Laphen succeeds Van Honeycutt, who will remain chairman through the end of July. Computer Sciences added 68 cents, or 1.2%, to $57.74.

Elsewhere, networking giant Cisco (CSCO:) , known well for niche acquisitions, agreed to buy BroadWare Technologies, a privately held maker of video surveillance software. Cisco ended the day lower by 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $26.37.

Several firms were altering stock ratings. Citigroup upgraded Elan (ELN:) to hold from sell, a day after the drugmaker updated its plans for an Alzheimer's drug candidate. Elan was up 35 cents, or 1.9%, to $19.04.

Among downgrades, Matrix Research cut its rating for SanDisk (SNDK:) to hold from buy. The stock slid 73 cents, or 1.7%, at $43.54.

Away from equities, government bond prices were lower in the absence of any economic releases. The 10-year Treasury was down 10/32 in price to yield 4.83%, and the 30-year bond was falling 21/32, yielding 4.98%.

Overseas, stocks were mixed. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.7%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.4%. London's FTSE slipped 0.5%, and Frankfurt's DAX advanced 0.5%.

Retail earnings will be in focus again on Wednesday, with reports due from Target (TGT:) , Limited (LTD:) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:) , among others.

Stocks Fail to Hold Gains.......


5/23/2007


Blue-chip stock measures had their sights set on records for much of the session Wednesday, but a sudden southward detour late in the afternoon derailed the rally.

When the final bell rang, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a loss of 14.30 points, or 0.11%, at 13,525.65. The Nasdaq surrendered 10.97 points, or 0.42%, to 2577.05, and the S&P 500 slipped 1.84 points, or 0.12%, to 1522.28.

Earlier, the Dow touched an intraday record high of 13,609.76, and the S&P reached 1532.43. The Nasdaq went to just under 2601.

Breadth weakened from the previous session while volume ramped up. About 2.91 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.03 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 8 to 7.

The market was enjoying fairly solid gains until right after 2 p.m., when the major U.S. averages tumbled. A warning from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that Chinese equities could be gearing up for a sharp pullback appeared to be at least partly responsible for the slide.

Both during his time at the central bank and since he left the Fed early last year, Greenspan has shown considerable ability to drive down shares anytime he even hints that investors should exercise restraint, beginning with his famous caution against "irrational exuberance" in late 1996.

The lower close was a disappointment for the market watchers who wanted to see the broad S&P index settle at a new all-time high, especially considering that for a large part of trading it seemed to be a foregone conclusion.

Each day this week, the S&P has pushed above its best finish of 1527.46 set in March 2000, but it hasn't been able to stay there. On Tuesday, the measure slipped nearly 1 point to 1524.12.

As has been the case for several weeks, mergers and acquisitions propped up the market before it ultimately fell back. Shares of Alcan (AL:) rose 6% to end at $85.89 after published reports said the Canadian aluminum company has held merger talks with Australia's BHP (BHP:) .

Following the last close, Alcan said it was urging shareholders to reject the $27 billion hostile offer from Alcoa (AA:) and suggested it was seeking a different partner.

Among other deals in the news, Crescent Real Estate Equities (CEI:) reached an agreement to be bought by a unit of Morgan Stanley (MS:) in a $6.5 billion arrangement. A large chunk of the total value includes assumed debt. Shares of Crescent ended higher by 3.2% at $22.31.

Elsewhere, shoe peddler Payless ShoeSource (PSS:) said it will acquire Stride Rite (SRR:) , the shoemaker, for roughly $800 million, or $20.50 a share. Stride Rite soared nearly 31% to $20.21 after the takeover was announced.

Edgar Peters, chief investment officer with Pan Agora, said that M&A activity has been good for individual stocks, but will not benefit the entire market over the long term.

"This isn't the environment where you'd want to see the market rallying to new highs," said Peters . "There's a certain amount of resistance at this point, and there aren't too many reasons to believe that everything is wonderful. Most of what's going on now is being tied to M&A. That's a liquidity issue and it is not tied to fundamentals, which are poor."

Several retailers were reporting earnings, including Target (TGT:) . The chain retailer posted a first-quarter profit of $651 million, or 75 cents a share, up 18% from the previous year. Results beat the Thomson First Call average consensus of 71 cents a share, although revenue came in slightly below estimates. Target gained 56 cents, or 1%, to finish at $58.60.

Additionally, Wet Seal (WTSLA:) topped first-quarter estimates by a slim margin. However, it indicated that second-quarter profits could miss the consensus. Still, Wet Seal was higher by 35 cents, or 6.3%, to $5.93.

Dillard's (DDS:) posted a 30% decline in first-quarter earnings, and the stock ended down $2.60, or 6.6%, at $37.05.

As for commodities, energy prices were stronger in the wake of the Energy Department's weekly inventory report, which showed a rise of 2 million barrels in crude inventories. Gasoline stocks added 1.5 barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 500,000 barrels.

The new front-month July crude contract climbed 26 cents to $65.77 a barrel, and gasoline tacked on a fraction of a penny to $2.31 a gallon.

Metals prices were higher. Gold added $2.70 to close at $662.60 an ounce, and silver gained 12 cents at $13.10 an ounce.

Treasuries were falling on the long end. The 10-year note was down 9/32 in price, yielding 4.87%, its highest yield since January, and the 30-year lost 15/32 to yield 5.01%.

Europe's markets were on the rise. London's FTSE was up 0.2% at 6616, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was better by 1% at 7735. In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei tacked on 0.1% at 17,705, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2% to 20,799.

Top is not in....... 8)

I hope. Pushed all the chips back in today. No cash.
I think we have a lot further to go. Realize that this is still the 3rd highest close ever!

From xfactor.com
"...the current market environment is in all out bullish
mode with money chasing yields without regards to valuations or
investment risk. This is very common as markets move into what
is known as the third phase of a bull market where the markets
in essence "melt up".

...all of this is happening as the economy slows (most
likely the recent report of GDP will be revised down to less than
1%) and consumers are finding it harder and harder to obtain
credit to support their lifestyle.

The point here is simply this; the market is disregarding all
negative implications of a highly liquid market and the demand
by hedge funds and institutions to place capital is going to
drive the market to higher levels. How high is anyone's
guess....but when it ends the correction will be significant and
unexpected."

We shall see... :D

Good trading to all...Make some $Bucks$  ;)

Rate Jitters Undo Rally.......


5/24/2007


Wall Street's brief morning rally was a distant memory by the close of trading Thursday, as worries about interest rates put an end to any celebrating over the strength of the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 84.52 points, or 0.62%, to 13,441.13, a swing of 183 points from its session high.

A gain of 1.9% in component Boeing (BA:) was outweighed by losses in Intel (INTC:) , IBM (IBM:) and Disney (DIS:) .

The Nasdaq plunged 39.13 points, or 1.52%, to 2537.92, and the S&P 500 was off 14.77 points, or 0.97%, at 1507.51.

Breadth weakened dramatically compared to the last session. About 3.14 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 5-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.35 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 3 to 1.

Contributing to the confusion was a Commerce Department report that new-home sales rose 16.2% last month to an annual rate of 981,000 units. Economists were looking for only an 860,000 pace.

The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, which jumped more than 2% after the release, finished the day 0.3% lower. Among individual names, Pulte Homes (PHM:) rose 1.4%, Centex (CTX:) gained 1%, and KB Home (KBH:) was up 0.7%.

For a time, the numbers gave a boost to broader stock measures, but they also led to selling in bonds and a corresponding increase in yields. The report is something of a two-edged sword. While it suggests growth in the economy, it also potentially reduces the chance of the Federal Reserve rate cut that many traders want to see.

By late in the day, Treasuries had recovered. The 10-year note was up 2/32 in price to yield 4.84%, having touched a high of 4.90% earlier. The 30-year bond was ahead by 6/32, yielding 4.99%.

"The bond market took the wind out of equities, as the move today is telegraphing the signal that an interest rate cut is off the table," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "We need confirmation before we can really believe that a rate cut is no longer an option, though. It's still a question whether housing has bottomed."

Pavlik added that, if a report Friday shows existing home sales tick up and inventories come down, it will give further credence to the belief that an easing is increasingly unlikely.

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial, said stocks might have been awaiting a reason to pull back.

"We're due for a little correction in the leader sectors, such as utilities, energy and materials," he said. "They're very overbought, and it's presenting a problem. Going into a three-day weekend, there's definitely some caution coming from that."

Among the worst declining subsectors of the market, the Amex Gold Bugs Index dropped 3.2%, the Philadelphia Utility Index lost 2.7%, the Amex Oil Index slumped 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average slid 1.2%.

Thus far this week, stocks have tried to rally each day, only to lose momentum before the close. On Wednesday, as on the two days before, the market climbed before relinquishing its gains late.

The last session's shift appeared partly due to comments from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who warned that China's equities are overvalued and getting primed for a correction. Even though Greenspan hasn't been in charge at the Fed since January 2006, his views still carry tremendous weight, and this wasn't the first time he has prompted a selloff with cautionary remarks.

Corporate news was again on the slow side. Homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL:) said its second-quarter earnings sank year over year, and Jabil Circuit (JBL:) affirmed its guidance, as did AnnTaylor (ANN:) .

Separately, General Motors (GM:) said it expects to unload its Allison transmission unit and indicated that its exposure to Delphi's restructuring will probably cost around $7 billion. GM was lower by 96 cents, or 3.1%, finishing at $30.47.

Aside from the housing numbers, traders were also reviewing other economic releases, the first of the week. The Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods increased 0.6% in April, compared with a revised rise of 5% in March. Economists had anticipated a 0.9% gain.

Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% in April, unchanged from the previous month.

"The headline number was depressed by declines in both auto and aircraft orders," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "Core orders were better, with core capital goods orders up for the second straight month."

However, Shepherdson warned that the rise in durable goods orders is not a recovery. "It is more a reversal of unsustainable weakness, probably seasonal or weather distortions, in prior months," he said.

Elsewhere, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 last week to 311,000, topping estimates of 305,000 claims. It was the first increase in more than a month. The less volatile four-week moving average fell by 3,500 to 302,750.

Commodities were mostly weaker. The front-month July contract dropped $1.59 to $64.18 a barrel, and natural gas was down 8 cents at $7.68 per million British thermal units. Gold lost $9.30 to close at $653.30 an ounce, and silver was off 18 cents at $12.92 an ounce.

Stocks were under pressure across much of Asia overnight, but the declines were fairly modest. China's CSI 300 Index lost 0.5% to 3920, and Tokyo's Nikkei slipped 0.05% to 17,697.

Sluggishness was also being seen in Europe, where London's FTSE and Paris'' Cac were fractionally lower. Frankfurt's DAX was higher by 0.3%.

On the way to 14000.......
Last time we hit the 13-day MA we started back up.
Doesn't look like sellers are banging down the exit doors.
The other indices look good.The Chinese don't give a s#*# what Alan thinks.

Stocks Grind Out Gains.......


5/29/2007


Stocks struggled to find solid footing at the start of a short trading week, but after an unsteady session Wall Street managed to finish with modest gains Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for a time better by 57 points, ended up 14.06 points, or 0.1%, at 13,521.34. The S&P 500 rose 2.38 points, or 0.2%, to 1518.11, and the Nasdaq was higher by 14.87 points, or 0.6%, at 2572.06.

Any traders worried that the long holiday weekend might slow the torrid pace of merger-and-acquisition activity awoke to find those fears misplaced, as once again dealmaking was dominating the headlines.

The biggest potential combination had a group led by Royal Bank of Scotland saying it will pursue the acquisition of ABN Amro (ABN:) for more than $95 billion. The offer exceeds a competing bid from Barclays.

Elsewhere, Tishman Speyer Properties and Lehman Brothers (LEH:) are going after the real estate investment trust Archstone-Smith (ASN:) in a takeover worth more than $22 billion.

Meanwhile, a combination of two engineering firms has also been set, with URS (URS:) agreeing to acquire Washington Group (WNG:) for $2.6 billion. And Avaya (AV:) , whose market value is around $6.1 billion, is considering selling all or part of the company, reports indicate.

One of the biggest stock movers was Peru Copper (CUP:NYSE) , which slumped almost 20% after the company said a deal couldn't be reached with a potential buyer. The mining concern will continue to evaluate its alternatives.

Economic data were light, but one report was out that showed positive attitudes among consumers. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index for May rose to 108 from 104 the prior month.

The consensus estimate called for a reading of 104.5.

Among the Day's ratings changes, Merrill Lynch cut three Internet names, downgrading eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) , Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) and Expedia (EXPE:NYSE) to neutral from buy.

HSBC upgraded Merck (MRK:NYSE) to neutral from underweight and lifted its price target to $57.75 from $45.

Energy prices were on the decline. Crude was down $2.05 at $63.15 a barrel, and gasoline was off 11 cents at $2.29 a gallon. Precious metals rose, including a $2 advance for gold to $663.40 an ounce.

Yields were rising on government bonds. The 10-year was down 7/32 in price, yielding 4.89%, and the 30-year was weaker by 7/32, yielding 5.02%.

Overseas, stocks were mixed. Tokyo's Nikkei added 0.5% to 17,673, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.3% to 20,470. London's FTSE and Frankfurt's DAX each tacked on 0.5%, while the Cac in Paris declined 0.3%.

S&P Gets Its Record....... ;D


5/30/2007


Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at all-time highs Wednesday, as the assumption that the Federal Reserves next rate move would be a cut propelled blue chips upward.

After falling as many as 64 points earlier, the Dow turned around and finished ahead by 111.74 points, or 0.83%, at 13,633.08, its 25th record of the year.... ;D

Only five of the Dow's 30 components finished with losses. Among the winners were Caterpillar (CAT:) , up 3.6%, and Alcoa (AA:) , higher by 2.2%.

The S&P 500 rose 12.12 points, or 0.8%, to 1530.23, finally topping the record of 1527.46 set in March 2000. The broad blue-chip index had flirted with the new high several times over the past week, but each time had failed to push through to a record close.

The Nasdaq, meanwhile, gained 20.53 points, or 0.8%, to 2592.59.

The major indices'' climb came after the 2 p.m. EDT release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from its May 9 meeting. At that gathering, policymakers left the fed funds target rate -- the rate banks use to charge each other interest for overnight loans -- unchanged at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.

The Fed's minutes indicated that members of the FOMC judged that the risks to economic activity were weighted to the downside, "although with turmoil in the subprime market appearing to have remained relatively well contained and business spending indicators suggesting a more encouraging outlook, these downside risks were judged to have diminished slightly."

The FOMC also reiterated inflation concerns, saying that "considerable uncertainty attended the prospects for inflation, and the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as desired remained the Committee's predominant concern," and that members felt "that it was appropriate to emphasize that core inflation remained somewhat elevated."

After taking a few minutes to digest the remarks, traders decided that on balance, the Fed is poised to lower rates the next time it makes a change.

Treasury prices relinquished most of their early gains following the release of the minutes. The 10-year note edged up 1/32 in price to yield 4.88%, having fallen to a yield of 4.86% earlier, and the 30-year bond added 4/32 to yield 5.01%.

"There is a lot of liquidity in this market, so selloffs have become buying opportunities," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "We're more concerned about the economic numbers still to come this week, and their effect on interest rates."

U.S. indices opened lower after equities in Asia endured a punishing session their last time out. Worst hit was Shanghai, where the benchmark stock measure sank 6.5%. The pullback came after word from officials there that they would dramatically increase the taxes on trading.

The decline in China's markets did spill over -- Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9% and Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.5% -- but the damage was somewhat contained, because the reason for China's weakness owed to what was perceived as an onerous regulatory decision rather than concerns about economic growth.

Markets in Europe were also in red, with London's FTSE and the Paris Cac each giving back about 0.9%. Frankfurt's DAX surrendered 1%.

"The news from China is irrelevant to the U.S. market, so we had a knee-jerk reaction down and then we snapped back," said Phillip Roth, chief technical market analyst with Miller Tabak. "It's a little over 1% swing from down to up, which isn't an extraordinary movement. This is telling us that there is a bid underneath. There wasn't anything surprising in what the Fed had to say, so it'll take something big to knock us out of this trend higher."

Edgar Peters, chief market strategist with Pan Agora, said that investors are comfortable looking past China, as U.S. stocks already managed to rally back following a 9% drop in the Shanghai index in late February.

"It seems as though there is a lot of complacency after the market came back after Shanghai markets fell apart the first time," said Peters. "Meanwhile, the Fed really hasn't changed its message. The report today wasn't good news, but there's so much liquidity thanks to mergers and acquisitions."

About 2.93 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.03 billion shares, with winners outpacing decliners 8 to 7.

The day brought word of news of more deals, including a takeout for technology products reseller CDW (CDWC:) , which will be acquired by private-equity firm Madison Dearborn for $7.3 billion. CDW added $2.06, or 2.5%, to $85.17.

Elsewhere, bond dealer Cantor Fitzgerald said it will join its BGC Partners and eSpeed (ESPD:) divisions in a merger that's valued at $1.22 billion. eSpeed closed higher by 4 cents, or 0.4%, to $9.23.

Also in the headlines was Ford (F:) , which told Reuters that it expects sales in the U.S. to have risen in May. Ford tacked on 10 cents, or 1.2%, to $8.50.

Earnings have slowed to a crawl, but a few retailers are still posting their quarterly numbers. Among them, Williams-Sonoma (WSM:) said its profits for the latest quarter beat estimates. Revenue, however, was a bit light, and the company lowered its forecast for the current period. Shares eased by 43 cents, or 1.3%, to $33.53.

Energy prices were mixed. The front-month July contract finished higher by 34 cents to $63.49 a barrel while gasoline was off by 2.5 cents at $2.27 a gallon.

Metals prices lost ground. Gold was down $4.10 to $653.10 an ounce and silver shed a fraction of a penny to $13.22 an ounce.

Quote from: setravis on May 28, 2007, 12:40:59 PM
On the way to 14000.......
Last time we hit the 13-day MA we started back up.
Doesn't look like sellers are banging down the exit doors.
The other indices look good.The Chinese don't give a s#*# what Alan thinks.

DOW in a new up trend ;)
Even though it could have the possibility to return to some 12900 or even 12000, it has started a new journey to the north. ;D
What say yoy ?



Stocks Run to New Records.......


6/1/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 again reached new records Friday, as stocks rose following a flood of positive data on the U.S. economy.

At the close of trading, the Dow had a gain of 40.47 points, or 0.3%, at 13,668.11, marking its 26th record of the year. A 3.9% rise in Wal-Mart (WMT:) led the way.

The S&P hit a third consecutive all-time high, tacking on 5.72 points, or 0.37%, to 1536.34. The Nasdaq was better by 9.40 points, or 0.36%, at 2613.92.

For the holiday-shortened week, the Dow rose 1.2%, rebounding from a loss the previous week. The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% over the four sessions, and the Nasdaq ended higher by 2.2%.

About 2.95 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.92 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

"The economy is doing better, so we have higher interest rates, but we're flush with liquidity, and equities keep going higher." said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co.

Enthusiasm sprang from the closely watched monthly jobs report, which showed that 157,000 workers were added to U.S. payrolls in May. Economists had expected 135,000 positions to have been created.

Additionally, the unemployment rate remained at 4.5%, and average hourly earnings, a key inflation metric, rose 0.3%. Both matched consensus estimates.

Meanwhile, job growth for the prior two months was revised downward. The government now says 10,000 fewer employees were put to work in March and April than had been first thought.

"On the positive side, the economy continues to show it can add jobs," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "There were some negatives, in that the economy continues to lose manufacturing and retail jobs. Temporary employment declined for the fourth straight month.

"However, this was generally a reassuring report, and it's unlikely this report will bring the Federal Reserve in off the sidelines to take any sort of action," he added.

Traders also welcomed more positive inflationary data, after the Commerce Department said that personal income eased 0.1% in April, compared with estimates of a 0.3% increase. Personal spending was up 0.5%, slightly above expectations.

Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditure price index is now higher by 2% over the past year, down from 2.1% in March. The number is now within the Fed's comfort zone range of 1% to 2%.

"When you consider the Fed minutes from earlier this week, it looks like they are likely to remain on hold for some time," said Sheldon. "The key factors that will lead the Fed to cut rates will be accelerated weakness in the housing market, a rise in the unemployment rate, as well as a decline in income."

At 10 a.m. EDT, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to a reading of 55.0 in May from 54.7 in April. Economists expected a slight decline to 54.0.

"It does now appear there has been a real improvement in the state of the manufacturing sector," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "Whether this can last in the face of rising inventory and slowing retail sales growth is another question, but for now the sector looks much healthier than in the early part of the year."

Also after the opening bell, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index was revised to 88.3 from a previous reading of 87.1, slightly better than estimates. On the downside, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales unexpectedly fell 3.2% in April.

Treasury prices dropped after the economic reports. The 10-year note tumbled 16/32 to yield 4.96%, and the 30-year bond fell 23/32 in price, yielding 5.06%. The dollar rallied against the world's major currencies.

Helping boost tech shares was a 1.5% increase in Dell (DELL:) , which said after the last close that it would cut 10% of its employees. At the same time, the PC Maker's quarterly numbers were better than had been expected.

Also on the rise was publisher Dow Jones (DJ:) , whose stock jumped 14.8% to $61.20 following word that the company's controlling family would be willing to hold talks with News Corp. (NWS:) and other potential acquirers. The announcement was a turnaround for the Bancrofts, a majority of whom had been opposing a $5 billion offer from News.

Several firms were altering ratings on stocks. Among upgrades, UBS raised its rating for auto-parts maker Lear (LEA:) to neutral from reduce. Elsewhere, Lehman Brothers downgraded Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ:) to equal-weight from overweight.

Lear tacked on 7 cents, or 0.2%, to finish the week at $35.74. Shares of Nasdaq eased 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $33.21.

Automakers posted vehicle sales results for May. Ford (F:) said sales fell 6.8% last month, while DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) posted a 3.9% rise. General Motors (GM:) reported a 9.6% gain in sales.

Crude oil jumped $1.07 to $65.08 a barrel. Precious metals also moved ahead. Gold advanced $10.20 to $676.90 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks were mostly stronger. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.5%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.2%. The FTSE in London added 0.8%, and the Frankfurt DAX climbed

Gold made a good move Friday.
The trend sure seems up!

Stocks rally looks like it's got legs.......
Next week's menu of U.S. economic statistics is not expected to pose any great challenges for U.S. stocks, suggesting that momentum can carry market indexes to still more record highs...

Absent any exogenous shocks, it seems like the market is still going to march higher.
There isn't anything (in the coming week's data) that would heavily impact the market in my opinion.

"Brandon Thomas,chief investment officer at Envestnet Asset Management in Chicago.
believes the U.S. economy is reasonably healthy, inflation is benign and corporate profitability is good, a combination that suggests the Fed will continue to leave interest rates where they are".

Better-than-expected profits, along with a wave of buyout activity, have been driving the U.S. stock market to record levels this spring.
it wouldn't be a surprise to see more buyout deals announced on Monday.
But for now, equity investors seem to be in a "don't worry, be happy" frame of mind...

Is this irrational exuberance? Remember, Greenspan was a little early with this observation. And don't forget, it takes awhile before the cab driver and shoeshine guy get caught up in the Tulip mania.

I'm trying to avoid getting greedy.
I added a little to cash yesterday. June and the weekend are here, but I will sleep peacefully tonight.
I should really have a martini tonight.

Wine is fine,
But a martini is fini.

Good trading to all.

Stocks Keep Advance Going.......


6/4/2007


Stocks in the U.S. spent much of Monday struggling with losses, but late in the session buyers emerged and put the blue-chip indices deeper into record territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 8.21 points at 13,676.32, and the S&P 500 was higher by 2.84 points at 1539.18. The Nasdaq tacked on 4.37 points to 2618.29.

Only 13 of the Dow's 30 members posted gains. Still, the pullbacks were limited. Alcoa (AA:) , with a 1.1% decline to $40.99, was the biggest loser. Wal-Mart's (WMT:) 3.5% increase to $51.21 buoyed the index.

For the S&P, the climb marked its fourth straight all-time high. The Dow set a new standard for the 27th time this year.

A new day brought another series of deals, but selloffs overseas made the domestic market a bit jittery early. Europe fell after Russian's president, Vladimir Putin, said his country's missiles would be aimed at the continent if the U.S. moved ahead with plans to install an antimissile system there.

China's CSI 300 was battered again, plunging 7.7% amid reports that the nation's government isn't inclined to intervene to stop the local market's recent slump. However, Hong Kong and Tokyo both escaped the downturn and ended to the upside.

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions were continuing to make headlines. One pact will see Flextronics (FLEX:) spend $3.6 billion for fellow electronics manufacturer Solectron (SLR:) .

Flextronics was down 1.4% to $11.54, while Solectron jumped 15% to $3.88.

Also in the tech sector, Palm (PALM:) is selling 25% of itself to the private-equity firm Elevation Partners, and reports indicate that TPG and Silver Lake Partners are near a deal to take over Avaya (AV:) .

Palm surged 9.2% to $17.57, and Avaya was up 4% at $16.72.

Elsewhere, Qiagen (QGEN:Nasdaq) said it will buy Digene (DIGE:Nasdaq) for $1.6 billion, and Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:Nasdaq) will be acquired by Lone Star Funds for $400 million.

Digene soared 27%, and Accredited was better by nearly 10%.

A pair of energy transactions have also been signed, with Dominion (D:NYSE) agreeing to sell most of its U.S. onshore natural gas and oil exploration and production operations for roughly $6.5 billion, and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL:NYSE) saying it will pay $1.85 billion to assume control of Anadarko's (APC:NYSE) interests in the Chaney Dell and Midkiff/Benedum natural gas gathering and processing systems.

Additionally, Reuters said American Express (AXP:NYSE) might sell its private banking business sometime in the coming weeks, and AXA (AXA:NYSE) has reached a preliminary arrangement to unload its Dutch insurance operations to SNS Reaal.

On the research front, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, HSBC and Wachovia upgraded Wal-Mart, and Bear Stearns lifted its rating on Sirius (SIRI:) .

CIBC took Motorola (MOT:) up to sector outperformer from sector performer.

Sirius edged ahead by 0.4%, but Motorola eased 0.3%.

The economic calendar was practically empty. One report that did come in showed that factory orders for April rose only 0.3%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had been looking for a 0.7% increase.

Treasury prices were on the rise. The 10-year note was up 5/32, lowering the yield to 4.93%, and the 30-year bond was advancing 14/32, yielding 5.03%.

As for commodities, precious metals and energy futures were mixed. Oil gained $1.13 to $66.21 a barrel. Gold slipped 60 cents to $676.30 an ounce.

Bears Take a Round.......


6/5/2007


Stocks in the U.S. were pressured from the start and closed lower Tuesday as a rise in bond yields and the belief that the Federal Reserve won't be rushing to cut rates kept the market weak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 80.86 points, or 0.6%, to 13,595.46 and was led lower by DuPont (DD:) and Home Depot (HD:) .

Of its 30 components, only Procter & Gamble (PG:) , Caterpillar (CAT:) and Exxon Mobil (XOM:) were in positive territory.

The S&P 500 gave back 8.23 points, or 0.5%, at 1530.95, and the Nasdaq was down 7.06 points, or 0.3%, to 2611.23.

By ending lower, the S&P snapped a four-day streak of record closes. On Monday, the S&P was up 2.84 points at 1539.18.

Contributing to the softness were comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that in the coming quarters the economy will probably advance at a moderate pace that will be close to or slightly below the "trend rate of expansion."

However, he added that while core inflation has gradually ebbed, its level remains somewhat elevated. Many of his statements were similar to those found in the Fed minutes released last week.

During prepared remarks to the International Monetary Conference in South Africa, the central bank chief noted that real gross domestic product has increased at an average rate of about 2% in the past four quarters.

" [The] adjustment in the housing sector is still ongoing, and the slowdown in residential construction now appears likely to remain a drag on economic growth for somewhat longer than previously expected," but there haven't been major spillovers to other parts of the economy, he said.

All told, he didn't say anything to suggest policymakers might be planning to ease anytime soon, and many market participants have been hoping to see the fed funds target rate lowered this year from 5.25%.

Meanwhile, bond prices were slumping, and that was pushing up yields. The 10-year note was losing 11/32 in price, yielding 4.98%, and the 30-year was down 21/32, yielding 5.07%.

Overnight, stocks in China recovered from the prior session's selloff, with the CSI 300 Index gaining 3.5% to 3635. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Tokyo's Nikkei each were up about 0.5%.

Europe declined. London's FTSE surrendered 0.5%, and Frankfurt's DAX and the Paris Cac shed around 0.7%.

Ahead of the Day's session in New York, a deal that had been reported as likely was confirmed. Avaya (AV:) said it would be acquired by Silver Lake Partners and TPG Capital for $8.2 billion, or $17.50 a share.

Elsewhere, Moody's (MCO:) raised its growth forecast for the year, and FuelCell Energy (FCEL:) topped Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimates. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:) indicated that its first-quarter results could miss estimates.

Among the research calls, Friedman Billings Ramsey boosted its price targets on a number of refiners, including Frontier Oil (FTO:) , Holly (HOC:) , Sunoco (SUN:) , Tesoro Petroleum (TSO:) and Valero (VLO:) .

CIBC and JPMorgan downgraded Openwave Systems (OPWV:) , and UBS lowered its rating on Juniper Networks (JNPR:) . Also, Bank of America raised its price target on Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) to $79 from $62.

Rate Worries Slam Stocks.......


6/6/2007


Stocks in New York took more losses Wednesday as continuing worries about the current interest rate environment kept the sellers in charge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 129.79 points at 13,465.67, and the S&P 500 was off 13.57 points at 1517.38. The Nasdaq lost 24.05 points to 2587.18. All the pullbacks equated to declines of around 0.9%.

Only five stocks, including Verizon (VZ:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) , escaped the damage on the Dow.

IBM (IBM:NYSE) , Intel (INTC:NYSE) and DuPont (DD:NYSE) were the biggest drags, each dropping more than 2%.

The downturn marked the second consecutive rough session for U.S. shares. On Tuesday, stocks fell as bond yields rose and concerns mounted that the Federal Reserve doesn't have plans to ease in the immediate future.

Previously, the Dow surrendered 80.86 points to 13,595.46, and the S&P fell 8.23 points at 1530.95, breaking a four-day streak of record closes. The Nasdaq gave back 7.06 points to 2611.23.

Bonds steadied as the new day arrived, but the fears about rates carried over. The 10-year note was up 6/32 in price, yielding 4.97%, and the 30-year added 2/32 to yield 5.08%. Higher yields lead to jitters about liquidity and also make fixed-income securities more competitive against stocks.

Just a handful of economic data are being released this week, and that has given market forces the freedom to drive trading.

The latest report, revised government figures on productivity, showed a 1% gain in the first quarter, in line with expectations. That was down from the preliminary reading of 1.7% growth. At the same time, labor costs jumped 1.8%.

Meanwhile, the White House's Council of Economic Advisers is now predicting that gross domestic product will climb 2.3% from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period this year. The administration had been expecting a 2.9% expansion.

Globally, stocks were generally weaker. Tokyo's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng each lost around 0.1% overnight. London's FTSE was down 1.4%, while Frankfurt's DAX plunged 1.9%. The Paris Cac fell 1.6%.

The European Central Bank, as had been expected, lifted its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%. The hike was the ECB's eighth in the last year and a half. At the same time, the Bank's chief said the eurozone's inflation outlook for next year hasn't been altered.

After the move, the euro lost ground to the dollar, declining to $1.35 from $1.352 previously. However, the greenback was softer against other major currencies, including the yen and the pound.

Domestic corporate news was a bit on the slow side. Dell (DELL:) was up 0.3% after the Financial Times reported that Michael Dell is hoping to make a series of purchases that would help make the company stronger in computer services, rather than just hardware.

Prudential Financial (PRU:NYSE) set plans to close down its Prudential Equity research, sales and trading business, effective immediately, and is stopping coverage of the sectors and companies it covers. Shares were down 1.1%.

Elsewhere, sandwich seller Panera Bread (PNRA:) took a 14% dive after it cut its second-quarter profit forecast.

Among the Day's research calls, Thomas Weisel downgraded Boyd Gaming (BYD:) , and Credit Suisse upgraded Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA:) . Morgan Stanley lifted its rating on Moody's (MCO:) , but it cut Whole Foods (WFMI:) .

Oppenheimer reduced its fiscal 2007 earnings estimates for Motorola (MOT:NYSE) by 2 cents to 29 cents a share, and the stock slipped 0.8%.

The firm said it's concerned about the production pace of the company's new phones, Apple's (AAPL:Nasdaq) upcoming iPhone and new offerings from Nokia (NOK:NYSE) .

As for commodities, crude futures were better by 35 cents to $65.96 a barrel after the Energy Department's weekly inventory results. Gold lost 50 cents at $674.60 an ounce.

Stocks Break Out of Funk.......


6/9/2007


Bond yields finally stopped rising Friday and oil prices tumbled, giving stocks in New York an opportunity to come out of their three-day slump.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 157.66 points, or 1.2%, to 13,424.39, and the S&P 500 added 16.95 points, or 1.1%, at 1507.67. The Nasdaq was higher by 32.16 points, or 1.3%, at 2573.54.

That marked quite a turnaround from the prior three sessions, when the Dow gave away roughly 400 points, including a decline of 198.94 points, or 1.5%, to 13,266.73 on Thursday. The S&P fell 49 points since Tuesday, and the Nasdaq dropped 77 points over the same span.

Largely responsible for the recent selloff were traders resetting their expectations about inflation and interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was lately at 5.11%, as the price for the note ticked ahead 5/32. Earlier, the yield hit 5.24%, its highest level in five years. The 30-year bond was better by 6/32 in price, well off its nadir, and yielding 5.22%.

As fixed-income securities saw their downturn halt, equities gathered upside momentum. Also aiding the recovery was a plunge of $2.17 in crude futures to $64.76 a barrel.

However, even with the bounceback to end the week, yields will likely remain in focus for the foreseeable future.

Pimco's Bill Gross, one of the most influential bond market observers on the planet, now believes the 10-year could climb all the way to 6.5% sometime in the next five years. Previously, he had seen 5.5% as the most likely top.

Central banks worldwide have been tightening rates in their effort to keep prices stable. This week alone, the European Central Bank and policymakers in New Zealand have hiked. The Federal Reserve in the U.S. has kept its fed funds target at 5.25% since last June.

When 2007 began, many investors were looking for at least one Fed easing this year, but the hopes of such a move have been gradually fading.

While the domestic housing sector has been soft, most other areas of the economy have remained at least somewhat solid. As a result, the Fed has repeatedly indicated that it's more concerned about the outlook for inflation than it is for a slowdown.

Now, fed funds futures are pricing in odds above 40% that officials will actually lift rates by a quarter point before 2008 arrives, whereas last month they carried a 0% chance.

Bloomberg reported that the experts it polled believe the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.6% annual pace in the current second quarter, up from the consensus forecast of 2.2% in May. Growth should then accelerate to 2.9% by the last quarter of the year, the survey revealed.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow, who's retiring in August, remarked before the open that the recent move in rates hasn't affected his economic outlook. He said during a televised interview that "inflation expectations are well-contained," but he suggested the Fed will remain on guard about excessive price increases.

On the economic calendar, the lone report showed a narrower trade gap than analysts had been expecting. The government said the April deficit fell more than 6% from March to $58.5 billion. Estimates had been for a gap of around $63.5 billion.

Among companies in the news, Tyco (TYC:) said it would split into three separate publicly traded firms, spinning off its health care and electronics operations to stockholders. Shares of Tyco gained 3.6%.

McDonald's (MCD:) posted global same-store sales that rose 8.7% in May, and it also got an upgrade from Deutsche Bank to buy from hold. The stock, a component of the Dow, advanced 2.4%.

Elsewhere on the research front, Bank of America downgraded Nike (NKE:) and Foot Locker (FL:) to neutral from buy.

JMP Securities lifted its rating on Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq) , and Deutsche took Genentech (DNA:NYSE) to a buy from a hold.

National Semiconductor (NSM:NYSE) gained 14.7%, leading other chips stocks higher, following its latest quarterly results and outlook. National predicted after the last close that sales for the current quarter could be above Wall Street's targets.

Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) rose 4.6%, and STMicroelectronics (STM:NYSE) tacked on 2.5%.

Higher Yields Hem In Stocks.......


6/11/2007


The major averages in New York bounced back and forth Monday and finally closed little changed as another rise in bond yields again had traders rattled.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.57 point to 13,424.96, and the S&P 500 gained 1.45 points at 1509.12. The Nasdaq slipped 1.39 points to 2572.15.

Last week, the U.S. market was crushed Tuesday through Thursday as a sharp rise in yields sidelined the bulls. The Dow lost 400 points during the three-session span, while the S&P sank 49 points and the Nasdaq plunged 77.

On Friday, stocks were able to recover part of the losses, with the Dow jumping 157.66 points to 13,424.39, and the S&P 500 adding 16.95 points to 1507.67. The Nasdaq rose 32.16 points to 2573.54.

Considering the action of the past few days, traders were keeping a close eye on the movement of the fixed-income market. Lately, the 10-year Treasury was down 10/32 in price, yielding 5.15%, and the 30-year bond was dropping 21/32, yielding 5.26%. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Pimco bond expert Bill Gross, who last week said the yield on the 10-year could reach 6.5% in the next five years, was out with new comments to Bloomberg, saying this time that it might take six months or more before the Federal Reserve moves to cut rates.

The fed funds target has been 5.25% since last June, and coming into this year many traders were looking for at least one reduction. However, those hopes have taken repeated blows in recent months as signs of economic strength and the potential for inflation have persisted.

Meanwhile, among stocks, a handful of small deals were making news on the merger front, but the day was absent any of the giant private-equity takeouts that have become almost commonplace.

IBM (IBM:) said it will acquire Sweden's Telelogic in a transaction worth about $745 million, and Back Yard Burgers (BYBI:) agreed to be taken private in an arrangement worth around $38 million.

Meanwhile, another bidder for Dow Jones (DJ:) could eventually be a possibility after all, according to a published report. The Wall Street Journal said General Electric (GE:) and Microsoft (MSFT:) discussed a way to combine some parts of the publishing company with NBC/Universal by countering News Corp.''s (NWS:) $5 billion offer, but they couldn't reach a pact.

Nucor (NUE:NYSE) fell 6% after saying its second-quarter profit will miss analysts'' estimates, citing lower shipments from its bar mill group. Other steel stocks slid as well.

On the research side, Credit Suisse initiated coverage of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE:) with an outperform rating and New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX:) with a neutral. The firm downgraded MarketAxess (MKTX:) to underperform from neutral and CBOT Holdings (BOT:NYSE) to neutral from outperform.

Elsewhere, Friedman Billings upgraded Wachovia (WB:) , and HSBC lifted its view on Nike (NKE:) . Also, UBS upgraded H&R Block (HRB:) .

Calyon took United (UAUA:NYSE) down to add from buy and slashed its price target by $21 to $38. Additionally, it cut AirTran (AAI:NYSE) to neutral from add and reduced its target by $1 to $12.

Stock indices were generally stronger overseas. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.5%. London's FTSE and the Paris Cac each rose 1%, and Frankfurt's DAX was better by 1.5%.

As for commodities, crude oil climbed $1.21 to $65.97 a barrel, and gold increased $8.70 to $659 an ounce.

Bulls Refuse to Yield.......


6/13/2007


Positive economic data and a decline in bond yields propelled stocks sharply higher in New York Wednesday, providing some relief to investors who've been pummeled by the fixed-income market in recent sessions.

After a brief midday hiccup, the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared back to close up 187.34 points, or 1.41%, to 13,482.35, its best single-biggest point gain for the year. Still, the blue chip average remains down more than 1% for the month thus far.

Twenty-nine of the Dow's 30 components finished in the black, with a 2.9% rise in Alcoa (AA:) leading the way. Only Verizon (VZ:) sat out the rally.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 rose 22.67 points, or 1.52%, to 1515.67, and the Nasdaq was up 32.54 points, or 1.28%, at 2582.31.

Contributing to the change in mood was the fact that bonds have settled down, at least for the moment. At 4:10 p.m. EDT, the 10-year Treasury was up 21/32 in price, dropping the yield to 5.21%, just below the current fed funds rate of 5.25%. The 30-year was advancing 1-21/32, lowering the yield to 5.29%.

Though that still leaves yields higher than some traders want to see, any sign that they're leveling off is welcome news for the equity markets. With only rare interruptions, stocks have been repeatedly pounded since early last week as yields have soared.

The Federal Reserves regional business survey, known as the beige book, helped to boost stock prices following its 2 p.m. EDT release.

The report said that U.S. economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace between late April and early June, without an increase in price pressures. Consumer spending was generally positive, and most districts reported an increase in manufacturing activity, according to the report.

"The beige book gave us a nice up tick as there was no evidence of pricing pressure," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "We can't make progress lately unless the bond market allows us to. As long as the bond market behaves, we should be able to recover."

A stronger-than-expected reading on retail sales also gave stocks strength. Before the bell, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.4% last month, the largest gain in over a year and double what economists had anticipated. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 1.3% in May, also well above forecasts.

"This is a much stronger report than seemed likely in the face of the clear slowdown in chain store sales," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "Given that chain store sales have weakened further in early June, this cannot be sustainable, but for now the data will certainly add to the view that consumers are not being badly affected by the jump in gas prices."

Separately, the Labor Department said its import price index rose 0.9% in May, higher than expectations. Petroleum prices rose 2.7% for the month, boosting the headline number. Over the past year, import prices have risen 1.1%.

The data gave bulls confidence to jump back in the market after surging yields sent stocks tumbling in the prior session. On Tuesday, the Dow lost 129.95 points, or 0.97%, at 13,295.01, and the S&P 500 was lower by 16.12 points, or 1.07%, to 1493. The Nasdaq fell 22.38 points, or 0.87%, to 2549.77.

Among the corporate names in the news, a judge in Italy has reportedly indicted Citigroup (C:) , UBS (UBS:) , Deutsche Bank (DB:) and Morgan Stanley (MS:) for not doing enough to prevent the collapse of dairy giant Parmalat in 2003.

Novartis (NVS:) received approval from European regulators for the flu vaccine Optaflu, and Jones Apparel Group (JNY:) is close to reaching a pact to sell Barneys to the government of Dubai, the New York Post reported.

Novartis was higher by 0.9% to $54.80, and Jones tacked on 1.1% to $29.20.

As for the Day's research calls, RBC upgraded Sapient (SAPE:) , and Bear Stearns downgraded Alcan (AL:) . UBS put Prudential (PRU:) on its strategic stock list and removed Costco (COST:) .

Sapient rose 6.5% to $8.03, and Alcan closed up 1.3% at $83.49. Prudential added 2.5% to $100.81, and Costco gained 1.5% to $55.97.

Other moves saw JPMorgan initiate coverage of Nokia (NOK:) with an overweight rating, and Citigroup lifted Blockbuster (BBI:) to buy from hold.

Nokia ended higher by 59 cents, or 2.2%, to $28.09. Blockbuster jumped 32 cents, or 8.1%, to $4.27.

As for commodities, energy prices crept higher in the wake of the Energy Department's weekly inventory report, which showed a meager gain in crude inventories. Gasoline stocks were unchanged from last week, and distillate stocks rose by only 300,000 barrels.

The front-month July crude contract finished up 91 cents to $66.26 a barrel, and gasoline added 2 cents at $2.15 a gallon.

Metals prices were little changed. Gold dipped by 40 cents to end the day at $652.70 an ounce, and silver was lower by 3 cents at $13.06 an ounce.

Markets overseas were mixed. London's FTSE added 0.6%, but Frankfurt's DAX was unchanged. Tokyo's Nikkei was weaker by 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.3%.

Stocks Extend Recovery Effort.......


6/14/2007


Stocks in New York rallied for a second straight session Thursday as a stabilizing situation in the bond market kept buyers interested in equities.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71.38 points, or 0.53%, to 13,553.73. Twenty-three of the Dow's 30 components were positive, led by a 4.7% jump in General Motors (GM:) .

At the same time, the S&P 500 added 7.30 points, or 0.48%, to 1522.97, and the Nasdaq climbed 17.10 points, or 0.66%, to 2599.41.

Helping the move were hopes that the rate-related plunge of recent days is over, or at least moderating. The 10-year Treasury was down 3/32 in price, yielding 5.21%, and the 30-year bond was off 7/32, yielding 5.30%.

On Wednesday, yields sank, and that, along with upbeat economic data, gave the U.S. market a lift.

The Dow surged 187.34 points, or 1.41%, to 13,482.35 and recorded its best point gain of the year. The S&P climbed 22.67 points, or 1.52%, to 1515.67, and the Nasdaq was up 32.54 points, or 1.28%, at 2582.31.

"Bonds rallied in the face of retail sales growth of up 1.4%, a better-than-expected beige book report, and rising import prices," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "You can't say that the economic data favored bonds, which made the rally all the more notable."

Both stock and bond traders pored over the latest incoming data for clues about inflation and the overall health of the economy. Before the opening bell, the Labor Department said its producer price index for May showed that inflation ticked higher at the wholesale level.

The headline index rose 0.9%, which was slightly above projections. The core index, excluding food and energy, rose an expected 0.2%. The core rate has increased 1.6% year over year, up from April's 1.5% rise, but is within the Federal Reserves comfort range of 1% to 2%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that the overshoot in the headline number was due to energy, while the core rate was benign.

"In the energy component, gasoline prices rose 10.2%, rather more than we expected," he said. "The lagged effect of the rise in core materials prices a year ago still points to upside risk for core finished goods in the next few months, but any acceleration will not last long."

Peter Cardillo, chief economic strategist with Avalon Partners, said that it was impressive that the market managed to hold on to gains as oil pushed above the $67-a-barrel level.

Crude oil jumped $1.39 to end the day at $67.65 a barrel, its highest level since late April. Meanwhile, precious metals overcame early weakness. Gold rose $3.20 to $655.90 an ounce, and silver was up 10.5 cents at $13.16 a barrel.

"The PPI data gave the market some relief, and investors continued to buy," said Cardillo. "Today's rise is worrisome because bond yields are still high and energy is continuing to rise. We're closing our eyes to that, and I think these danger signs will give us trouble."

On Friday, the consumer price index, viewed as the more important of the two inflation measures, will be out.

"Tomorrow's headlines will be all about the CPI," Cardillo said. "Any negative news out of that report will reverse investors'' enthusiasm."

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the government said initial jobless claims were unchanged from last week at 311,000. The less-volatile four-week moving average rose by 3,750 to 311,250.

Meanwhile, among stocks, shares of Sanofi-Aventis (SNY:) dropped 4% to $41.33 following the news that advisers to the Food and Drug Administration said the agency should reject the company's weight-loss drug Zimulti. The stock also fell hard in Europe.

On the deal-making front, Liberty Media (LCAPA:) and EchoStar (DISH:) are joining forces to bid for satellite-communications provider Intelsat, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. The report also said an auction for Intelset could get bids exceeding $5.5 billion. Liberty rose 1% to close at $117.76, while EchoStar finished unchanged at $44.93.

As for earnings, Goldman Sachs (GS:) posted a second-quarter profit of $2.33 billion, or $4.93 a share, up 1% from the year-ago quarter. Analysts expected earnings of $4.79 a share, according to Thomson First Call. Still, worries about the subprime market sank shares by $7.89, or 3.4%, to $225.75.

Bear Stearns (BSC:) also posted second-quarter results before the open but said that profits fell to $361.7 million, or $2.52 a share, down 33% from last year. Excluding items, the investment bank earned $3.40 a share, falling short of estimates. After falling by 2.3%, the stock rebounded to rise 11 cents, or 0.1%, at $149.60.

Goldman and Bear Stearns are among several investment banks reporting this week. Lehman Brothers (LEH:) topped estimates on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley (MS:) is set to report next week.

Overseas, stocks were uniformly stronger. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.4%. The FTSE in London added 1.4%, and the Frankfurt DAX gained 2.2%.

Stocks Get Another Lift.......


6/15/2007


Stocks closed higher again Friday as investors cheered positive inflationary data, and Wall Street heads in to the weekend with three straight days of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 85.76 points, or 0.6%, to 13,639.48, as 25 of its 30 components were positive, led by a 4.4% surge in Intel (INTC:) .

The S&P 500 climbed 9.94 points, or 0.7%, to 1532.91, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 27.30 points, or 1.1%, to 2626.71.

All told, the Dow added 1.6% this week and the S&P 1.7%. The Nasdaq was the best performer, increasing 2%.

Giving stocks a boost was a benign report on consumer-level inflation. The Labor Department's consumer price index climbed 0.7% for May, slightly ahead of expectations. However, the core index, which excludes food and energy prices, was below estimates with a 0.1% rise.

The closely monitored core inflation figure is now up 2.2% over the past 12 months, down from 2.3% in April.

The data follow Thursday's producer price index, which rose a greater-than-expected 0.9% in May. The core PPI rose 0.2%, as expected. The PPI report measures inflation at the wholesale level.

The CPI is considered the more important of the two when it comes to influencing Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates, but both are factored into the central Bank's planning.

"The core [CPI] number is something the market is comfortable with, despite the fact that the headline number remained strong," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "First-quarter data were fairly weak, but there's a clear trend of improvement. Second-quarter growth is likely to be more positive than previously thought."

For the past few sessions, the bond market hasn't been nearly as punishing as it was last week and early this week, and that helped stocks regain their footing. Around 4 p.m. EDT, the 10-year Treasury was up 17/32 in price, yielding 5.15%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 25/32, yielding 5.25%.

"The interest rate picture is still driving equity markets, and that's likely to continue," said Sheldon. "The rise in interest rates has taken investors by surprise because of the strength in the move and how quickly rates rose. Investors had previously expected multiple rate cuts, but that theory is now changing. The Fed may be out of the picture for the rest of 2007 or may even raise rates."

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the New York Fed said its Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a reading of 25.8 in June, compared with 8.0 in May. The index was expected to jump to 12.0.

Economic headlines were not free of disappointment, though. Industrial production was unchanged in May, below the 0.2% forecast. Capacity utilization fell to 81.3% from 81.5%, also missing estimates. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 83.7 in May from 88.3 the previous month, short of the target of 87.8.

Meanwhile, new speculation about dealmaking was giving investors a chance to think about something besides interest rates. According to Bloomberg, Nymex Holdings (NMX:) might seek a sale to NYSE Euronext (NYX:) , Deutsche Boerse or Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME:) .

The report cited people who were close to the matter and said Nymex could be valued at $14.3 billion.

Additionally, the same news service said Home Depot (HD:) is poised to get offers worth around $10 billion for its contractor-supplies division from separate private-equity groups.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Google (GOOG:) is planning an R&D center in Shanghai for later this month as it bids to take on Baidu.com (BIDU:) , the search market leader in China.

Away from stocks, oil prices reversed early weakness to reach a high of $68.30 for the day. Crude oil closed with a gain of 35 cents at $68 a barrel. Precious metals also rebounded to finish higher. Gold was up $2.80 at $658.70 an ounce, and silver tacked on 9.5 cents at $13.26 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks were uniformly stronger. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also climbed 0.7%. The FTSE in London added 1.2%, and the Frankfurt DAX climbed 2.3%.

Quote from: setravis on May 28, 2007, 12:40:59 PM
On the way to 14000.......
Last time we hit the 13-day MA we started back up.
Doesn't look like sellers are banging down the exit doors.
The other indices look good.The Chinese don't give a s#*# what Alan thinks.

Someone really lit the bulls tail on fire this time !
On the way to 14000.......and I still feel this way...If it will pass 13850 we are good to go !

Technicals
Record Volume....... ;)

Last Price Quote is:
1.08%above 13-day EMA
3.02%above 50-day EMA

Stock Rally Takes a Break.......


6/18/2007


U.S. stocks closed slightly to the downside Monday, as an upturn in oil markets and volatile bond prices had investors taking a breather after three straight sessions of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surrendered 26.50 points, or 0.19%, at 13,612.98. The S&P 500 was off 1.86 points, or 0.12%, at 1531.05, and the Nasdaq was only 0.11 point lower at 2626.60.

About 2.53 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.77 billion shares, and losers outpaced winners 8 to 7.

The New York market ended last week with three days of big rises. The Dow finished at 13,639.48, up 1.6% for the five sessions. The S&P went out at 1532.91 after its 1.7% gain, and the Nasdaq closed at 2626.71, a climb of 2% for the week. The gains came as bond yields cooled down after surging in the prior week.

"It was a relatively quiet day after a big run-up last week, and it's encouraging there wasn't a selloff after that," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "With all that's gone on, the stock market will keep an eye on oil and bonds and any [Federal Reserve comments] for the rest of the week, as it doesn't look like we're going to get much else."

In the new session, bond prices swung back and forth. After initially rising and then falling, the 10-year Treasury was again up 3/32 in price, yielding 5.15%. The 30-year bond was unchanged in price, yielding 5.26%.

" [Interest rates] are going up, as the economy seems to be regaining momentum and the first quarter was the only rest the economy was going to get," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "The yield curve, for the first time in over a year, is actually ''normal,'' with higher rates for each maturity out to 10 years."

Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald, said "investors are willing to tolerate higher rates if they come with the benefit of stronger growth. The initial surge pushed rates up to 5.33%, causing the market to shift its focus away from a Federal Reserve rate cut."

The economic docket is empty and will be light for the next four sessions. The next report comes Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, when the Commerce Department will post housing starts and building permits for May.

Elsewhere, July crude topped $69 a barrel to close at its highest mark since September 2006. Oil finished higher by $1.09 to $69.09 a barrel. Metals were also stronger, including a gain for gold of $1.20 to $659.90 an ounce.

Corporate news was light. Among the names in the headlines, Alcoa (AA:) is reportedly being eyed by Australia's BHP Billiton (BHP:) . Alcoa has been pressing to acquire Alcan (AL:) , but it hasn't been able to reach a deal to this point.

Alcoa rose 0.7% to $41.88, and BHP Billiton was higher by 1.3% to $58.60. Alcan shrugged off early weakness and finished up 0.8% to $83.55.

One confirmed merger will see Finish Line (FINL:) buy Genesco (GCO:) for $54.50 a share, or $1.5 billion. Finish Line shed $1.10, or 8.7%, to $11.53. Meanwhile, Genesco jumped $4.15, or 8.4%, to $53.75.

Also on the deal front, Wendy's (WEN:NYSE) said it is pursuing a possible company sale. The fast-food chain also cut its guidance for the year, and shares slid $1.47, or 3.7%, to close at $38.26.

Cephalon (CEPH:) said U.S. regulators approved its drug Nuvigil for treating excessive sleepiness associated with three disorders. However, the development failed to lift shares, and Cephalon was off by $1.22, or 1.5%, to $82.64.

Several firms were issuing upgrades. Citigroup raised its rating for both Blockbuster (BBI:) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:) to buy from hold. Blockbuster tacked on 2 cents, or 0.4%, to $4.60. Bristol-Myers was lower by 45 cents, or 1.5%, to $30.31.

UBS raised Molson Coors Brewing (TAP:) to buy from neutral, and RBC Capital Markets upgraded Sapient (SAPE:) to outperform from sector perform. Molson was higher by $1.29, or 1.4%, to $93.22. Sapient slumped 37 cents, or 4.6%, to $7.66.

Overseas, stocks rose in Asia, where the Tokyo Nikkei advanced 1% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng surged 2.7%. Europe, however, was mixed. London's FTSE and the Paris Cac were fractionally lower, and Frankfurt's DAX was better by 0.1%.

Stocks Eke Out Gains.......


6/19/2007


Stocks in New York, coming off their first decline since early last week, struggled to find their footing Tuesday but ultimately did close slightly to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.44 points, or 0.16%, to 13,635.42. The index benefited from a 3.2% increase in General Electric (GE:) , which put the stock at a five-year high.

The S&P 500 was up 2.65 points, or 0.17%, at 1533.70, and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.16 point, or 0.01%, to 2626.76.

"We're consolidating close to the highs of last week, but volume has been light and volatility has been low," said Phillip Roth, chief technical market analyst with Miller Tabak. "There's not a lot of upside, but it's not over. There is typical laggard stock participation, including General Electric today, showing that investors are still out there hunting."

About 2.71 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.89 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 8 to 7.

On Monday, the U.S. market took a break from the three-session surge that ended last week, edging lower as oil again became part of the equation with a climb past $69 a barrel.

The Dow slipped 26.50 points, or 0.19%, to 13,612.98, and the S&P 500 lost 1.86 points, or 0.12%, at 1531.05. The Nasdaq was fractionally weaker at 2626.60.

Crude prices inched even higher in the new session amid more violence in Nigeria, which hurts the country's oil output. After trading lower, crude rebounded to add a penny and finish at $69.10. Gasoline, meanwhile, was lower by 2 cents at $2.23 a gallon.

Long-term Treasuries, which also have been a main focus for traders, rallied. The 10-year note was up 13/32 in price, yielding 5.08%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 26/32, yielding 5.19%.

In the week's first economic release, the Census Bureau said U.S. housing starts fell a greater-than-expected 2.1% in May to 1.47 million annualized units. On average, economists were looking for new construction to total 1.48 million units.

The report did have a silver lining, as building permits rose 3% to 1.50 million last month, above the anticipated 1.48 million annual pace.

Still, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said there was little solace in the housing report.

"The downward trend remains firmly in place, and there is no prospect of any near-term relief, given the huge inventory overhang in the new-home market," Shepherdson said. "Both starts and permits were supported by increases in the multifamily home sector, which tends to be much more volatile than the single-family numbers."

On the corporate side, Yahoo! (YHOO:) said after the prior session's close that Terry Semel is stepping down as CEO and giving up the post to co-founder Jerry Yang. Still, that wasn't enough for Deutsche Bank, which cut its price target on the stock to $26 from $28. Yahoo! shares ended the day lower by 49 cents, or 1.7%, to $27.63.

Best Buy (BBY:) lost ground after the electronics seller posted first-quarter earnings of $192 million, or 39 cents a share, down 18% from a year ago. Results fell short of the Thomson First Call target of 49 cents a share, and the retailer cut its profit outlook for the year. Best Buy fell $2.83, or 5.9%, to $45.18.

On the flip side, shares of Expedia (EXPE:) surged after the Internet travel company said it would buy back $3.5 billion of its own stock. The shares jumped $3.64, or 14.3%, to end the day at $29.14.

Elsewhere, News Corp. (NWS:) and Time Warner (TWX:) received buy ratings at Bank of America, while the firm gave Viacom (VIA.B:) and Disney (DIS:) neutral ratings.

News Corp. added 0.3% to $23.68, and Time Warner rose 1.7% to $21.24. Viacom tacked on 0.2% to $42.94, and Disney finished up 0.6% to $34.76.

Overseas in Asia, the Tokyo Nikkei advanced 0.1%. In Europe, London's FTSE was 0.3% lower, and Frankfurt's DAX was worse by 0.8%.

Are you ready for the long hot summer?
My area we are already in a severe drought...



Stocks Manage Modest Gains.......


6/21/2007


Stocks in New York were all over the map early Thursday, but by the afternoon they had gone positive and stayed that way through the close, recapturing some of the ground they lost during the previous session.

After falling by as much as 90 points earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned around and rose 56.42 points, or 0.42%, to 13,545.84. The S&P 500 was up 9.35 points, or 0.62%, at 1522.19. The Nasdaq advanced 17 points, or 0.65%, to 2616.96.

"Volatility certainly reigned today," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "There's a level of volatility that will give us this type of action because the market can't find its way. With concern over higher interest rates and the subprime mess, there will be this uncertainty that will plague the market for some time to come."

On Wednesday, the market took a late tumble as Treasury prices fell, driving up yields. The Dow sank 146 points, or 1.07%, to 13,489.42, and the S&P 500 lost 20.86 points, or 1.36%, to 1512.84. The Nasdaq dropped 26.80 points, or 1.02%, to 2599.96.

Lately, government bonds were softer. The 10-year note was down 8/32 in price, yielding 5.16%, while the 30-year bond was losing 18/32, yielding 5.28%.

About 2.96 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.99 billion shares, and winners matched losers.

Energy stocks, which suffered during the prior session, rebounded strongly. Chevron (CVX:) , Hess (HES:) , Marathon Oil (MRO:) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY:) all finished higher by 2.2% or more.

Meanwhile, several deals were in the works or being struck. Canada's BCE (BCE:) , who has talked with potential partners for several weeks, said it has been discussing the chance of a merger with its fellow communications company Telus (TU:) .

BCE added $1.12, or 3.1%, to $37.89, while Telus slid $1.83, or 3%, to close at $58.90.

Luxottica Group (LUX:) is planning to acquire Oakley (OO:) in an arrangement worth $29.30 a share, or a little over $2 billion in total. Luxottica jumped 9.1% to $38.02, and Oakley surged 12.8% to $28.45.

Following the prior close, Dow Jones (DJ:) said its board would take control of negotiations about a possible sale to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NWS:) . Until now, Dow's controlling shareholders, the Bancroft family, have had the lead role in the matter. Dow Jones was lower by 1.6 % to $59.71, and News Corp. tacked on 0.5% to $23.71.

General Electric (GE:) , which said shortly after the midday mark that it would not pursue an acquisition of Dow Jones, finished higher by a penny at $38.80.

Among the Day's research calls, Piper Jaffray downgraded Home Depot (HD:) to market perform from outperform, and Citigroup cut its rating on Prudential (PRU:) to hold from buy. Home Depot closed down 0.2% to $39.95, and Prudential lost 0.8% to $99.51.

On the economic front, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 10,000 last week to 324,000. Economists had expected claims to come in at 311,000. Elsewhere, the Conference Board said leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in May, slightly above the consensus. The gain helped reverse a 0.5% decline in April.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its manufacturing index for June jumped to a reading of 18.0, more than double expectations.

As for commodities, the front-month August crude contract lost 21 cents to $68.65 a barrel. Gasoline was up by a penny at $2.24 a gallon. Precious metals were weaker. Silver futures fell 16 cents to $13.09 an ounce. Gold futures lost $8.60 to $651.40 an ounce

Overseas, stocks climbed in Asia but eased in Europe. Tokyo's Nikkei tacked on 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.3%. London's FTSE slipped 1.2%, and Frankfurt's DAX shed 2.1%.

Stocks Awash in Red.......


6/22/2007


Stocks follow the path of least resistance, and in the absence of much news on the economy and the corporate side, that path was to the downside Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 185.58 points, or 1.37%, to 13,360.26, and the S&P 500 fell 19.63 points, or 1.29%, to 1502.56. The Nasdaq slumped 28 points, or 1.07%, at 2588.96.

An entire week of uneven trading reversed the gains from the previous week. After adding 1.6% last week, the Dow fell 2% over the last five sessions. The S&P 500 lost 2%, and the Nasdaq finished the week down 1.4%.

"One-hundred-point swings on the Dow have become the standard, it seems," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "The entire month of June has been following this norm. This is part and parcel of a bull market that has been rallying but is overextended and overbought. There's a lack of catalysts, and within this thin atmosphere we're bound to have these swings."

About 3.89 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 3-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.74 billion shares, and losers outpaced winners 2 to 1.

Bond prices jumped in the absence of economic data. The 10-year Treasury was up 9/32 in price, yielding 5.16%, and the 30-year bond was adding 22/32 to yield 5.25%.

Rising energy futures pressured the major indices. Oil was higher by 49 cents to $69.14 a barrel, and gasoline gained 4 cents at $2.28 a gallon.

Precious metals were mixed. Gold was up $2.80 to $657 an ounce, while silver dipped 7 cents at $13.02 an ounce.

Aside from oil-related measures, most subsector indices ended in the red. The Philadelphia/KBW Bank Sector Index was lower by 1.6%, the Nasdaq Biotech Index finished down 1.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index lost 1.5%, and the Amex Airline Index was off 0.9%.

The S&P Retail Index was also lower, despite a jump in shares of Macy's (M:) on speculation the retailer was an acquisition target. Macy's finished up $2.56, or 6.6%, to $41.43.

Among other names in the news, BP (BP:) is near an arrangement that would see it surrender its interest in a $20 billion natural gas project in Russia to a government-controlled concern. BP ended up 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $69.76.

Back in the U.S., investors finally got a chance to trade private-equity firm Blackstone Group (BX:) , which priced its initial public offering at the high end of the expected range after the prior close. Shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange, rising as high as $38. Blackstone finished its first day at $35.06, up 13%.

Meanwhile, on the research front, Gap (GPS:) was initiated with an outperform rating and a $24 price target at Friedman Billings Ramsey. At the same time, the firm downgraded Starbucks (SBUX:) to market perform from outperform, took it off the Top Picks list and slashed its target by $18 to $26.

Gap off by 12 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $19.34. Starbucks fell 72 cents, or 2.7%, to $25.54.

Elsewhere, ThinkEquity upgraded Crocs (CROX:) to buy, and Lehman cut Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:) to equal weight from overweight.

Crocs rose 99 cents, or 2.2%, to $46.91, while Abercrombie lost $2.87, or 3.8%, to $73.71.

Most markets overseas were in the red, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.2%. Tokyo's Nikkei slipped 0.3%. London's FTSE and Frankfurt's DAX both eased 0.2%.

More Struggles for Stocks.......


6/26/2007


Stocks in New York closed slightly lower again Tuesday, as a session marked by wild swings through positive and negative territory ended on a down note.

After rising as much as 100 points earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 14.39 points, or 0.11%, to 13,337.66.

"Headwinds affecting the market continue to be energy prices and interest rates, as well as housing woes," said Michael Sheldon, chief investment strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "The more recent concern has been the problems in the subprime market and spillover into other sectors, and that's making investors very nervous."

The S&P 500 was down 4.85 points, or 0.32%, at 1492.89, and the Nasdaq was lower by 2.92 points, or 0.11%, at 2574.16.

Sheldon added that traders should keep an eye on the June lows for the market, which would be 1490 on the S&P 500, 13,259 on the Dow, and 2541 on the Nasdaq.

"If we move below those levels on a closing basis, we're likely to see a pick-up in selling among jittery investors," he said.

About 3.30 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with decliners beating advancers by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.05 billion shares, and losers outpaced winners 8 to 7.

Lower energy prices tempered the pullback, as traders turned their attention away from the Nigerian strike to questions involving Venezuelan production. Crude ended down $1.41 to $67.77 a barrel, and gasoline lost 5 cents to $2.25 a gallon.

Earlier, the Commerce Department said new-home sales fell 1.6% last month to an annual rate of 915,000 units, below economists'' expectations. A hefty downward revision was made to April's figure, which was changed to 930,000 units from 981,000.

In other negative news on the housing front, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed that prices in 10 major U.S. cities fell 2.7% in April, while homebuilder Lennar (LEN:NYSE) reported an unexpected loss for its recent quarter.

The news comes a day after the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales for May fell slightly to an annual pace of 5.99 million from a revised 6.01 million in April. The inventory of homes on the market reached a 15-year high.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said there is no evidence the housing market will recover anytime soon.

"We think the underlying rate of decline has slowed, but the direction of sales is still downwards," he said. "The supply problem may now be stabilizing, but it remains huge. The three-month average level of sales has bounced a bit in the past couple of months, but we doubt this marks the start of any sustained recovery."

The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index was lower by 2%. Among individual names, Hovnanian (HOV:) dipped 4.1%, Pulte Homes (PHM:) slid 3.1%, and Centex (CTX:) lost 2.3%.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 103.9 in June from 108.0 last month. The latest reading was a 10-month low for the index. Economists had expected a slight decline to 106.0.

Government bond prices eased after the Day's economic releases. The 10-year note was down 5/32 in price, yielding 5.10%, and the 30-year bond was off 8/32, yielding 5.21%. The dollar was losing ground against the world's major currencies.

The market's wobbliness came after a day of wild swings in the prior session. On Monday, stocks rallied in the first half of trading, but it all fell apart in the afternoon. The Dow, for a time up more than 100 points, surrendered its gains and closed with a loss of 8.21 points, or 0.06%, to 13,352.05.

The S&P 500 dropped 4.82 points, or 0.32%, to 1497.74, and the Nasdaq fell 11.88 points, or 0.46%, to 2577.08.

"Technically, the market took a big blow on Friday, [and Monday''s] snapback bounce proved to be little more than a trade and not a major market turn," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Now we have to focus on what will make this decline accelerate. If we break below these levels, we could see acceleration to the downside."

Back on the corporate side, Lennar tumbled 3.1% after the builder said it lost $244.2 million, or $1.55 a share, for the quarter ended May 31, reversing a profit of $324.7 million, or $2 a share, in the year-earlier period. The latest quarter includes a charge of $1.33 a share. Revenue slumped 37%, and the company also forecast a loss for the third quarter.

Dow Jones (DJ:) could be closer to being taken over, as it's believed to be near a deal with News Corp. (NWS:) that would be aimed at ensuring its editorial operations have certain guarantees under any acquisition. Dow Jones rose 2.2% to $58.77, while News Corp. closed down 0.8% to $23.31.

Altria (MO:) expects to record a charge of $325 million in the second quarter as part of its plan to improve global cigarette production, which will include moving some output overseas. Altria added 88 cents, or 1.3%, to $69.63.

Shares of Target (TGT:) were lower after the retailer said it expects June comp sales to be near the lower end of its previous forecast of a gain of 3% to 5%. Target lost $1.25, or 2%, to close at $62.91.

Among metals, gold dropped $9.40 to $645.30 an ounce, and silver ended down 59 cents to $12.41.

Overnight in Asia, markets were slightly weaker. Tokyo's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng each shed 0.1%. As for Europe, London's FTSE slipped 0.4%, and Frankfurt's DAX gave back 0.9%.

Wednesday will feature earnings from retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:) and food giant ConAgra (CAG:) .

Fed Statement Leaves Stocks Flat.......


6/28/2007


Stocks ended little changed Thursday after traders dissected a Federal Reserve policy statement that came with a tempered view on inflation but overall few surprises.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially spiked after the statement, but it wavered and ultimately closed down 5.45 points, or 0.04%, at 13,422.28. The S&P 500 was off 0.63 point, or 0.04%, at 1505.71. The Nasdaq added 3.02 points, or 0.12%, to 2608.37.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, as expected, kept its fed funds target rate at 5.25% for the eighth straight meeting.

While the FOMC reiterated in its policy statement that the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing, the Fed altered language when referring to economic growth, now saying that recent indicators showed that "growth appears to have been moderate during the first half of this year."

The Fed also removed the term "elevated" in describing inflation. It said that readings on core inflation "have improved modestly in recent months," but that "a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated."

Any future rate changes, the Fed said in repeating past comments, will depend on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as indicated by incoming data.

"It's no big surprise, but there are a few interesting points," said Steven Sheldon, CFA and principal of SMS Capital Management. "They are aware that housing is a problem, but that the economy is holding up pretty well. It looks as though they're going to continue to be on hold, until the housing sector gets worse or the labor market gets tighter."

Richard Yamarone, director of economic research with Argus Research, said that investors shouldn't expect a change in interest rates from the Fed "for a while."

"If you are a Fed official with the ability to influence monetary policy, you really have to have a compelling argument to increase rates at a time when the most interest rate-sensitive sector is mired in recession," Yamarone said. "Furthermore, the latest developments in the subprime arena and the unknown effect on the hedge fund and financial markets are also good reasons to adopt a wait-and-see approach to policymaking."

Government bonds slipped following the Fed's announcement. The 10-year note was down 9/32 in price, yielding 5.11%, and the 30-year bond fell 9/32 to yield 5.21%. The dollar was little changed against the world's major currencies.

Dampening enthusiasm was a sharp increase in energy prices, as questions swirled around Venezuelan production. Exxon Mobil (XOM:) and ConocoPhillips (COP:) still have not come to an agreement with Venezuela's state-run oil firm allowing the companies to continue to pump there.

After topping $70 a barrel earlier, crude ended the day higher by 60 cents at $69.57 a barrel. Gasoline added a penny to $2.27 a gallon. As for precious metals, gold was higher by $5.60 to $650.40 an ounce, and silver was up 17 cents to $12.37.

Investors also digested new government data that showed the domestic economy performed slightly better during the first quarter than initial reads had indicated. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose 0.7% last quarter, up from a preliminary 0.6%, but was still below the 2.5% annual pace in the fourth quarter.

Economists expected a revision to 0.8%. The year-over-year change in inflation was raised to 2.3%, up from 2.2%.

The GDP report was the last of three that will be released on the first quarter.

In another report, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 last week to 313,000. The less volatile four-week moving average rose 1,000 to 316,000.

To date, the Dow has gained 7.7% for the year, the S&P 500 is up 6.2%, and the Nasdaq has risen 8% in 2007. However, for the month of June, the Dow is down 1.4% and the S&P 500 has lost 1.6%. The Nasdaq is flat for the month.

Breadth in Thursday's session weakened a bit and volume was also lower compared to earlier in the week. About 2.79 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers beating decliners by a 10-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.93 billion shares, as winners outpaced losers 8 to 7.

In corporate news, Capital One (COF:) gained 1.1% after the company said it would eliminate 2,000 positions and restructure some of its operations in a bid to save around $700 million on a pretax basis. The stock rose 87 cents to $79.67.

Elsewhere, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:) and Red Hat (RHT:) posted better-than-expected earnings, and LSI (LSI:) offered a disappointing forecast and said it will cut jobs. Bed Bath & Beyond fell 3.9% to $36.09, and Red Hat slumped 7.5% to $22.37. LSI dropped 11.5% to $7.65.

When the new day arrived, so did more earnings. Constellation Brands (STZ:) beat estimates on an adjusted basis and named Rob Sands as CEO, while General Mills (GIS:) was short of Wall Street's targets and guided lower for the year. Constellation finished up 3.5% to $24.98. General Mills lost 2% to $58.27.

On the research front, Cisco Systems (CSCO:) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Merrill Lynch, with a $31 price target, and Lehman upgraded Intel (INTC:) to overweight from equal weight, lifting its target by $4 to $28.

Cisco added 58 cents, or 2.1%, to $27.85. Intel was higher by 13 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $23.92.

JPMorgan took action on a number of airlines, upgrading Southwest (LUV:) , Alaska (ALK:) , Continental (CAL:) , UAL (UAUA:) , AMR (AMR:) and US Airways (LCC:) .

The firm downgraded small carriers Republic Airways (RJET:) and SkyWest (SKYW:) .

Overseas, stocks rose. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.1%. London's FTSE was higher by 0.7%, and Frankfurt's DAX rose 1.5%.

Merger Deals Boost Stocks.......


7/2/2007


Stocks in the U.S. started a new week and a new quarter on an upbeat note, as blue chips and tech shares benefited from the latest merger activity and economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.81 points, or 0.95%, to close at 13,535.43, and the S&P 500 added 16.08 points, or 1.07%, to 1519.43. The Nasdaq was better by 29.07 points, or 1.12%, at 2632.30.

Monday marked the beginning of trading for the year's third quarter, and investors were happy to escape, at least for a day, from some of the recent volatility. Helping the mood was the M&A action.

The biggest deal was taking place north of the border, where Canada's BCE (BCE:) reached an agreement to go private in a transaction worth more than $30 billion, excluding debt. The company is being bought by the private investment arm of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, Providence Equity Partners and Madison Dearborn.

BCE advanced $1.66, or 4.4%, to $39.45.

After the last session, AT&T (T:) said it would buy rural wireless carrier Dobson Communications (DCEL:) in a $2.8 billion arrangement, paying a 17% premium to the stock's closing price. Shares of AT&T tacked on 35 cents, or 0.8%, to $41.85.

Several other private-equity deals were announced, including GSO Capital Partners'' $1.1 billion buyout of ice and bottled-water producer Reddy Ice (FRZ:) . Additionally, Carlyle Group said it will buy Manor Care (HCR:) for $67 a share, making the deal worth $6.3 billion.

Reddy Ice jumped 6.9% to $30.48, but Manor Care slipped 1.8% to $64.10.

Virgin Media (VMED:) surged nearly 18% after Carlyle Group was said to have bid $11.1 billion to take the company private. The stock finished up $4.30, or 17.6%, to $28.67.

Treasury prices jumped after the release of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index. The index rose to a reading of 56.0 last month from 55.0 in May, slightly above expectations. On Thursday, the ISM will post its services index for June.

The 10-year note rose 10/32 in price to yield 4.98%, its lowest level in nearly one month. The 30-year bond added 15/32, yielding 5.09%. The dollar declined against the world's major currencies.

Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management, said that stocks had plenty of help from two major sources during an active day.

"Strong manufacturing data showed that the economy continues to move at a moderate pace. Lower interest rates made it a win-win situation today," he said. "The M&A headlines were another plus for stocks on this fairly normal day. Everyone will be leaving tomorrow ahead of the holiday, and I would imagine it'll quiet down the rest of the week."

The Day's session was one of only three full trading sessions this week. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Independence Day holiday after closing early at 1 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.

About 2.60 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 3-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.85 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 2 to 1.

Meanwhile, crude prices were higher after falling below $70 a barrel earlier. Oil gained 41 cents to close at $71.09 a barrel, its highest finish since September. Natural gas lost a penny to $6.76 per million British thermal units.

Among metals, gold was up $8.30 to $659.20 an ounce, and silver gained 26 cents to $12.74 an ounce.

Several homebuilders were under pressure after Citigroup cut its rating to hold from buy for Toll Brothers (TOL:) , Pulte Homes (PHM:) , Lennar (LEN:) , Ryland Group (RYL:) , KB Home (KBH:) , DR Horton (DHI:) and Hovnanian (HOV:) .

As for other ratings changes, Deutsche Securities upgraded Tribune (TRB:) to buy from hold, while CIBC World Markets downgraded SanDisk (SNDK:) to sector perform from sector outperform.

Tribune rose 51 cents, or 1.7%, to $29.91. SanDisk lost 54 cents, or 1.1%, to $48.40.

Overseas, equities fell in Europe after a weekend car bomb at Glasgow's airport set off terrorism fears throughout the U.K. The attack came a day after police in London found two cars rigged with explosives in the city.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.1%, and Frankfurt's DAX eased 0.6%. Tokyo's Nikkei was fractionally higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.8%.

AP
Stocks Rally As Bond Yields Dip
Monday July 2, 6:58 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer 
Wall Street Soars, Boosted by a Decline in Treasury Yields and a Rise in June Manufacturing


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street soared Monday in the first day of trading for the third quarter, boosted by a decline in Treasury yields, a rise in June manufacturing activity and a spate of buyout news.


The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 120 points after the Institute for Supply Management's June manufacturing index came in at 56.0, slightly higher than the market expected and indicating stronger expansion than May's reading of 55.0. The report also showed a decrease in its prices paid index, suggesting inflation pressures lifted a bit last month and easing some of the market's worries about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note's yield fell below 5 percent from 5.03 percent late Friday, dampened as investors flocked to the safe-haven assets amid ongoing jitters about subprime lending. In mid-June, Bear Stearns & Cos. had to bail out a hedge fund with investments tied to subprime mortgages.

Investors were also enthusiastic about new takeover activity, involving such targets as Canadian telecommunications company BCE Inc., rural wireless provider Dobson Communications Corp. and British telecommunications company Virgin Media Inc.

"There's favorable economic news and continuing merger talk. That's a pretty good recipe for the market," said Stuart Schweitzer, managing director and global markets strategist for JPMorgan Private Bank. He added, though, that the market has been seesawing in recent weeks and trading volumes are light, so the market's gain should not be interpreted as a turnaround just yet.

"I think the movie's going to end well this year, but there are still going to be some scenes where we'll have to take our eyes away from the screen," Schweitzer said, pointing to persistent sluggishness in the housing market and nervousness over credit problems.

The Dow rose 126.81, or 0.95 percent, to 13,535.43.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 16.08, or 1.07 percent, to 1,519.43, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 29.07, or 1.12 percent, to 2,632.30.

The combination of retreating yields and reports of fresh buyout activity gave some relief to investors who were worried about business slowing down due to high rates.

"There's a little positive to the subprime woes, that being that interest rates are dropping now," said Steven Goldman, chief market strategist at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn. The 10-year Treasury note's yield breached the 5 percent level in early June for the first time since last year, hit a peak of nearly 5.30 percent, and have since retreated. High rates can hamper deal making.

BCE rose $1.66, or 4.4 percent, to $39.45 after a $32.6 billion buyout offer over the weekend -- the biggest Canadian takeover ever -- from a consortium led by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board.

The news followed AT&T's announcement Friday that it agreed to buy Dobson for $2.8 billion. Dobson rose $1.31, or 11.8 percent, to $12.40 Monday, while AT&T rose 35 cents to $41.85.

On Monday, Virgin Media confirmed it received a buyout offer, following reports that private equity firm the Carlyle Group bid more than $11 billion for the company. Virgin Media soared $4.30, or 17.6 percent, to $28.67.

The Carlyle Group also made an offer for nursing home chain Manor Care Inc., valued at $4.9 billion. Manor Care slipped $1.19 to $64.10.

Investors appeared unfazed Monday by high oil prices. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange initially fell, but then rebounded to rise 41 cents to $71.09 a barrel -- closing above $71 for the first time in 10 months.

The dollar fell against most other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 2.50 billion shares, down from 3.10 billion shares Friday.

Trading volumes are low ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, when U.S. stock exchanges will be closed. The markets are also closing early on Tuesday.

Two big pieces of data this week include the ISM's index of the service sector in June, to be released Thursday, and the Labor Department's jobs report, scheduled to come out Friday.

No major earnings reports are scheduled to be released this week, but investors will keep an eye out for profit warnings ahead of the second-quarter earnings season, which starts the third week of July.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 11.36, or 1.36 percent, to 845.06.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.04 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.26 percent, Germany's DAX index declined 0.61 percent, and France's CAC-40 lost 0.46 percent.

Rally Continues for Stocks.......


7/3/2007


Stocks in the U.S. marched higher in a shortened session Tuesday, giving the major indices a two-day winning streak to start the third quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 41.87 points, or 0.31%, at 13,577.30, and the S&P 500 added 5.44 points, or 0.36%, to 1524.87. The Nasdaq was ahead by 12.65 points, or 0.48%, at 2644.95.

New York trading ended early at 1 p.m. EDT, and Wednesday will be a day off in order to observe the Independence Day holiday.

Volume was meager for the abbreviated session. Only 1.57 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.07 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 8 to 7.

"There's not too much to say about today's session, even though there was a little buying ahead of the holiday," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC.

"Historically, the two days following the July 4th holiday haven't been positive for markets, so we could see profit-taking at the end of this week," he added. "Whatever traders that will be around will be focusing on Friday's important nonfarm payrolls report."

The latest rise marked a continuation of the previous session's advance, when merger activity and economic data lifted the market.

The Dow ended the prior day up 126.81 points, or 0.95%, to 13,535.43. The S&P rose 16.08 points, or 1.07%, to 1519.43, and the Nasdaq increased 29.07 points, or 1.12%, at 2632.30.

"With the start of the third quarter, investors have an opportunity to take on new riskier positions and have three months to see if they pan out," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald.

On the corporate side, more deals were being contemplated, including a move by Kraft (KFT:) , who said it plans to buy the cookie business of France's Groupe Danone (DA:) for more than $7 billion. Kraft shed 87 cents, or 2.5%, to close at $34.66. Groupe Danone gave back 20 cents, or 1.2%, to $16.65.

Elsewhere, Teck Cominco (TCK:) made an offer for fellow Canadian miner Aur Resources worth C$4.1 billion in cash and stock, extending a trend toward consolidation in the group. Teck Cominco fell by $1.40, or 3.2%, to $43.06.

Meanwhile, a study showed that Merck's (MRK:) painkiller Vioxx, which was pulled off the market in 2004, might have been dangerous sooner than the company believed, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper, which reviewed the so-far unpublished study, said heart problems could emerge soon after people started on the drug. Merck has said risks only began after 18 months of use, and that has been one of the keys of its defense against the thousands of Vioxx-related lawsuits it's facing. Merck added 26 cents, or 0.5%, to $49.83.

Shares of Movie Gallery (MOVI:) plunged 65.1% after the movie renter said it will default on certain financial requirements due to weak second-quarter earnings. The stock dove $1.23 to close at 66 cents.

As for research calls, UBS upgraded Business Objects (BOBJ:) to buy from neutral, and the firm downgraded Caterpillar (CAT:) to reduce from neutral. Business Objects was higher by 2.2% to $40.32, while Caterpillar sank 3.1% to $77.99.

Automakers were also posting vehicle sales results for June. Ford (F:) said sales fell 8.1% last month, and DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) posted a 2% decline.

General Motors (GM:) will post results later in the day.

Oil had been lower, but it turned around and rose 3 cents to $71.12 a barrel. Natural gas was off by 3 cents to $6.72 per million British thermal units. Among metals, gold was lower by $3.40 to $655.80 an ounce, and silver was down 4 cents to $12.70.

Treasury prices tumbled after the 10 a.m. EDT reports on pending home sales and factory orders. The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales slid 3.5% in May, slightly more than expectations.

The Commerce Department said that factory orders fell 0.5% in the month, better than expectations for a 1.2% decline. Excluding transportation, factory orders were higher by 0.7%.

The 10-year note was down 14/32 in price to yield 5.05%, and the 30-year bond eased 25/32 in price, yielding 5.15%, The dollar was lower against the world's major currencies.

Overseas, stocks were generally stronger. Tokyo's Nikkei was unchanged, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 1.7%. London's FTSE was up 0.8%, and Frankfurt's DAX climbed 1.2%.

Rising Yields Knock Down Stocks.......


7/5/2007


Stocks in the U.S. were retreating Thursday as an advance in bond yields overshadowed more news on the deal front.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was losing 40 points to 13,537, and the S&P 500 was off 3 points at 1521. The Nasdaq was lower by only a fraction of a point at 2645, as both Apple (AAPL:) and Google (GOOG:) rose to all-time highs and helped keep the index afloat.

For the first two days of a holiday-shortened week the New York market traded higher, but buyers were a bit more reluctant as the new session arrived.

Giving the bears a hand was a sharp decrease in Treasury prices. The 10-year note was down 20/32 in price to yield 5.13%, and the 30-year bond was dropping 1 2/32 to yield 5.22%.

At the same time, an increase in energy prices was also putting pressure on the major indices. The front-month August contract was higher by 36 cents to $71.77 a barrel, and gasoline was tacking on a fraction of a penny at $2.26 a gallon.

The energy complex was rising even after the Energy Department's weekly inventory report showed an unexpected build of 3.1 million barrels in crude inventories last week. Distillate stocks added 1.2 million barrels, and gasoline stores rose by a greater-than-expected 1.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose 0.6 percentage points to 90% last week.

Since the previous close, private equity has been busy in the M&A arena, including a giant deal in the hotel space, where Blackstone Group (BX:) has set plans to buy Hilton Hotels (HLT:) for $26 billion.

Shares of Hilton were soaring 26% to $45.42. Other hotel stocks were jumping as well. Starwood Hotels (HOT:) rose 7.4%, Marriott (MAR:) was adding 7.2%, and Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG:) gained 4.1%.

Elsewhere, Huntsman (HUN:) , which has already agreed to one takeover bid, has received a competing offer from an affiliate of Apollo Management, and reports say Coca-Cola (KO:) has had talks about possibly buying the Snapple and Mott brands from Cadbury Schweppes (CSG:) .

Huntsman was surging 12.7% to $27.49. Coca-Cola was down 0.6% to $52.57, and Cadbury Schweppes was off 0.2% to $53.72.

As for ratings changes, Bear Stearns downgraded Dow component General Motors (GM:) to peer perform from outperform. The downgrade comes after GM said late Tuesday that auto sales dropped more than 20% in June compared with the year-ago period. Shares of GM were losing $1.40, or 3.7%, to $36.58.

Among the Day's economic news, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 last week, to 318,000. The less-volatile four-week moving average rose 1,750 to 318,500.

The report is the last before the government releases its all-important nonfarm payroll numbers for June at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday. It is expected that the U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs last month.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Institute for Supply Management said its services index for last month rose to a reading of 60.7 from 59.7 in May. Economists expected the index would dip to a reading of 58.0.

Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald, said that the latest read on the ISM services index is a gift to traders looking for an idea what to expect as earnings season unofficially kicks off on Monday when Alcoa (AA:) posts second-quarter results.

"A number above 55 should support optimism over second-quarter earnings expectations," Pado said. "Earnings will be the key to the market's performance in July. Any data that supports earnings in excess of the 4.3% [expansion] anticipated should be warmly received."

Metals prices turned lower. Gold was recently down $4.20 to $651.20 an ounce, and silver was lower by 16 cents at $12.52 an ounce.

Overseas, Tokyo's Nikkei advanced 0.3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2%. London's FTSE was lower by 0.6% after the Bank of England raised its key rate by 25 basis points. Frankfurt's DAX lost 1.1%.

Wall Street Shows Mettle.......


7/6/2007


Stocks shook off early weakness and closed higher Friday, as traders overlooked another climb in bond yields and the continuing advance in crude prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45.84 points, or 0.34%, to 13,611.68. The S&P 500 was up 5.04 points, or 0.33%, at 1530.44, and the Nasdaq tacked on 9.86 points, or 0.37%, at 2666.51.

Despite an abbreviated trading session Tuesday and the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, the major averages managed modest gains for the week. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 added 1.8%, and the Nasdaq finished the week higher by 2.4%.

The news of the day was the employment report, one of the most important pieces of data the government releases every month. The numbers showed that 132,000 workers joined nonfarm payrolls in June, whereas economists had expected 125,000 positions to have been created.

The jobless rate remained at 4.5%, and average hourly earnings, a key inflation metric, rose 0.3%. Both matched consensus estimates.

However, job growth for the prior two months was revised sharply upward. The government now says 75,000 more employees were put to work in April and May than had been first thought.

"This report is quite strong, when adding in the revisions to previous months," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "This is good momentum for the economy as we leave the second quarter. This report shows solid growth."

Bond yields jumped early before pulling back slightly, although they still indicated that fixed-income traders view the jobs data as diminishing the chance of a near-term rate cut. The 10-year Treasury was down 13/32 in price, yielding 5.20%, and the 30-year bond was lower by 20/32, yielding 5.27%.

"Initially, the revisions to previous months pushed bond yields higher. This was an issue early on, but now traders are looking at this and considering that it's not necessarily due to an inflationary problem but instead a stronger economy," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "There's light volume following the holiday, and that might have something to do with the volatility today."

Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that while the Fed has remained on the sidelines instead of raising or cutting rates, the move in the bond market has essentially done the work for them.

"After a bit of a swoon late in February, stock prices took flight through May, under the impression that as long as nothing happens, prices should rise," he said. "However, the rumblings of the first half may turn to all-out shouting in the second."

The data came just hours after Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said during a speech that the central Bank's main concern should remain inflation, continuing the theme that other officials have stressed for months.

She also indicated that keeping rates steady would allow for growth and at the same time prevent prices from rising too far, too fast.

The Fed has left its target fed funds rate at 5.25% since June 2006. When this year started, many on Wall Street were looking for at least one reduction, but six months of data have failed to show convincingly that the economy has been suffering because of the current interest rate environment. Therefore, policymakers have been in a holding pattern.

Breadth improved from the prior Day's weak levels. About 2.45 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.65 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

Crude prices were on the rise again. Oil added $1 to close the week at $72.81 a barrel, its highest close since September. Natural gas lost 18 cents to $6.44 per million British thermal units after the latest inventory report.

Gold was higher by $4.20 to $654.80 an ounce, and silver added 18 cents to close at $12.75 an ounce.

As for the corporate side, Microsoft (MSFT:) said it would record a pretax charge of up to $1.15 billion in order to expand the warranty coverage for its Xbox 360 game consoles.

The company made the move because it has seen an "unacceptable number" of calls for repairs, and it said the warranty will go from one year to three years. Shares of Microsoft eased by 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $29.97.

Elsewhere, Advanced Medical Optics (EYE:) has offered to buy Bausch & Lomb (BOL:) for $75 a share, or more than $4 billion in total. The proposal is higher than a deal Bausch signed with private equity firm Warburg Pincus earlier this year.

Advanced Medical Optics dipped 0.1% to close at $35.85. Bausch & Lomb finished flat at $72.

Among analyst actions, Deutsche Bank upgraded Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A:) to buy from hold. Several firms cut their ratings on Hilton (HLT:) , saying they don't expect competing bids to emerge for the hotel chain.

Royal Dutch Shell added $2.29, or 2.8%, to $85.18. Despite the downgrades, Hilton managed to gain 32 cents, or 0.7%, to $45.71.

Overseas, Tokyo's Nikkei gave back 0.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.3%. London's FTSE rose 0.8%, and Frankfurt's DAX was better by 0.7%.

Stocks Get Pre-Earnings Boost.......


7/9/2007


Stocks in the U.S. logged modest gains Monday as traders geared up for the start of the second-quarter earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38.29 points, or 0.28%, to 13,649.97. The index is now only 26 points below its record close of 13,676.32 set on June 4.

Sixteen of the Dow's 30 components were higher, led by a 1.7% gain in Alcoa (AA:) , whose second-quarter earnings report after the bell unofficially kicked off earnings season. Boeing (BA:) was also up after the company officially unveiled its new 787 Dreamliner plane.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 edged up 1.41 points, or 0.09%, to 1531.85. The Nasdaq added 3.51 points, or 0.13%, to 2670.02.

In addition to Alcoa, this week will also feature names such as GE (GE:) , Genentech (DNA:) and Yum! Brands (YUM:) .

However, the number of reporting companies won't be as extreme in the next few days as it will be in the coming weeks.

"There's a generally positive feeling to the market, as people are expecting that second-quarter earnings will be better than expected," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "There was some resistance as we got near record highs, as investors are cautious of buying at this level. With big names releasing earnings, though, we might see a trend where people push stocks to all-time highs."

Volume rose from Friday's levels. About 2.51 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.82 billion shares, with winners matching losers.

For stocks, Monday was a return to full-time trading after an abbreviated week that was marked by the Independence Day holiday. Last week, the Dow rose 1.8%. The S&P was up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.4%.

Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that the upcoming earnings season will see "investors focused upon company's comments about the future, not so much of the past.

"The trading range that has existed over the past two months has been a boon to traders, however investors have been frustrated by the ''treadmill'' activity, running fast but going nowhere," he added. "The market internals have been deteriorating for a while; however so far, the ultimate arbiter of breaking down -- prices -- has not done so yet."

Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald, argued that there are some positive signs as investors brace for the torrent of earnings.

"There is an air of optimism out there. The averages are moving quietly under their 2007 highs," said Pado. "The Nasdaq has consistently led this rally and is in new rally high ground. This is the type of leadership we want to see for the July rally. If investors are willing to reach out for returns and take on added risk, then that bodes well for broader market."

Among the names in the news, Sony (SNE:) finished lower on word that the company will cut the price of its PlayStation 3 game console by $100 to $499. Sony gave back 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $53.04.

Printer maker Lexmark (LXK:) fell after warning on its second- and third-quarter results. The stock slid $3.15, or 6.4%, to $46.25.

Buybacks were back in focus, as Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) said it will repurchase up to $10 billion of its stock. ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) followed suit by announcing a $15 billion buyback. Johnson & Johnson rose 59 cents, or 1%, to $62.72, while ConocoPhillips jumped $3.01, or 3.7%, to $84.05.

As for the Day's research calls, Home Depot (HD:) was upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachs, and Tyco (TYC:) was downgraded to sell at Citigroup. Still, Home Depot dipped 0.2% to $40.23, and Tyco slipped 3.6% to $51.25.

ThinkEquity lifted its price target on Google (GOOG:) to $700, and at the same time the firm cut its rating on Yahoo! (YHOO:) to accumulate from buy. Google tacked on 0.6% to $542.56, and Yahoo! finished up 0.4% at $27.20.

In the absence of any data on the economic docket, Treasury prices were rising slightly, pushing yields downward. The 10-year note was up 7/32 in price to yield 5.15%, and the 30-year bond added 9/32 to yield 5.24%.

Energy prices finished mixed. The front-month August contract eased 62 cents at $72.19 a barrel, while gasoline rose 3 cents at $2.34 a gallon.

Meanwhile, metals prices gained ground. Gold rose $7.70 to finish the day at $662.50 an ounce, and silver was higher by 6 cents at $12.82 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were higher. Tokyo's Nikkei climbed 0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.3%. London's FTSE edged ahead 0.3%, and Frankfurt's DAX was rising 0.6%.

Stocks Take a Beating.......


7/10/2007


Stocks in the U.S. slid sharply Tuesday as profit warnings, a record low for the dollar and subprime-market concerns combined to create a jittery atmosphere.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 148.27 points, or 1.09%, to 13,501.70, its worst point decline in nearly three weeks. The S&P 500 fell 21.73 points, or 1.42%, to 1510.12, and the Nasdaq dropped 30.86 points, or 1.16%, to 2639.16.

Breadth crumbled from the previous levels. About 2.46 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as decliners topped advancers by a 3-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.17 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 11 to 4.

The declines came amid warnings from retail giants Home Depot (HD:NYSE) and Sears Holdings (SHLD:Nasdaq) , as well as rising oil prices. In addition, the dollar descended to an all-time low against the euro.

A warning from Standard & Poor's that it could cut its rating on $12 billion in securities backed by subprime residential loans also raised concerns about the ongoing effects of the housing meltdown.

"That's a tremendous negative for the market, as it's the other shoe we've been waiting to drop," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "People have started to liquidate, and the trend has accelerated. This subprime problem could really drain liquidity from the system, as $12 billion could be lost in loans. We don't know what the ramifications are."

Similarly, late in the day Moody's downgraded 399 residential mortgage-backed securities and placed an additional 32 securities under review for possible downgrades.

Among financials, Lehman Brothers (LEH:) fell 5%, Bear Stearns (BSC:) was down 4.1%, Merrill Lynch (MER:) gave back 3.5%, and Morgan Stanley (MS:) was lower by 3%.

The other big losing sector was retail, with the S&P Retail Index slumping 2.4%. Lowe's (LOW:) , Macy's (M:) , Kohl's (KSS:) and Wal-Mart (WMT:) all fell 1.9% or more.

The decline came after Home Depot lowered its earnings targets for the second half, saying that the weak housing market continues to hurt its results. The company expects earnings for the year to slide 15% to 18% from a year earlier, in part because of the recent sale of its supply business.

Sears Holdings also warned of weak second-quarter results, noting a soft performance in June. Sears'' shares dropped $17.20, or 10%, to finish at $154.21.

"After these earnings warnings, the market was set for a dismal day," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck. "There's a lot of negativity out there today. The market is near some record highs, and after this negative news we're re-evaluating positions."

Meanwhile, homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI:) added to ongoing concerns about the housing market. The company said that third-quarter home orders tumbled 40%, and it forecast a loss for the period. The stock shed 39 cents, or 2%, to finish at $19.40.

The major indices'' slide began to steepen after a 1 p.m. EDT speech in Massachusetts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But although Bernanke discussed inflation, no clear indications of Fed rate policy were discussed.

"Nothing Bernanke said had a direct impact on equities," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC. "Instead, for whatever reason, investors decided there were enough negative factors to turn everyone cautious. The negative earnings news created a cautious mood to start the day, and it's not surprising to see us back off further."

Treasury prices rose following Bernanke's remarks. The 10-year note was up 23/32 in price to yield 5.03%, while the 30-year bond was adding 1-12/32 and yielding 5.13%.

Crude oil continued its climb, spooking investors. August light sweet crude gained 62 cents to close at $72.81 a barrel. Gasoline rose 3 cents to $2.37 a gallon.

"When we got near $73 to $76 a barrel last time, the market came under tremendous pressure," said Mendelsohn. "We're now entering that very dangerous level for equities as oil keeps rising."

The market is coming off a day in which stocks rose modestly ahead of the earnings release from aluminum giant Alcoa (AA:) , whose report is viewed as the kickoff to earnings season.

The Dow rose 38.29 points, or 0.28%, to 13,649.97 Monday, ending just 26 points below its record close set on June 4. The S&P 500 inched up 1.41 points, or 0.09%, to 1531.85, and the Nasdaq added 3.51 points, or 0.13%, to 2670.02.

After the bell, Alcoa reported a 4% drop in second-quarter profits, meeting expectations. However, sales rose only 3% and missed Wall Street's target, and shares were off by 70 cents, or 1.7%, to close at $41.66.

Also late Monday, shareholders of the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT:) approved a planned buyout by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME:) , ending IntercontinentalExchange's (ICE:) quest to trump the deal with its own offer for the CBOT.

CBOT was lower by 1.5% to $219.45, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 1.7% to $560.80. The IntercontinentalExchange dipped 0.7% to $155.73.

Among the Day's research calls, JPMorgan upgraded General Motors (GM:) to overweight from neutral. The firm also upgraded GM rival Ford (F:) to overweight from underweight. JPMorgan speculated that unions will help the automakers deal with rising costs from health care benefits.

GM added 64 cents, or 1.7%, to $37.41. Ford gained a penny, or 0.1%, to $9.09.

Among metals, gold was up $1.90 to $664.40 an ounce, while silver was higher by 15 cents to $12.97 an ounce.

Overseas, markets mostly lower. Tokyo's Nikkei dipped 0.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.3%. London's FTSE fell 1.2%, and Frankfurt's DAX was losing 1.4%.

Mergers Give Stocks a Boost.......


7/11/2007


Stocks in New York rose Wednesday as new merger activity and lower oil prices helped traders take the first steps toward recovering from the prior session's steep decline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 76.17 points, or 0.56%, at 13,577.87, and the S&P 500 added 8.64 points, or 0.57%, to 1518.76. The Nasdaq was better by 12.63 points, or 0.48%, to 2651.79.

That helped the market recover some of Tuesday's losses, when the Dow sank 148.27 points to 13,501.70, and the S&P gave back 21.73 points to 1510.12. The Nasdaq was worse by 30.86 points to 2639.16.

"We shook out yesterday and have recovered a bit today, so the basic trend looks intact," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "The problems are still there, as questions on the subprime market and higher energy costs still linger. However, we are coming into earnings season, and we're expecting an underpromise-overdeliver period."

Breadth and volume improved from Tuesday's levels. About 3.06 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers matched decliners. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.99 billion shares, with winners topping losers 8 to 7.

One thing domestic stocks had going in their favor was more news on the buyout front, including a report that Canadian aluminum concern Alcan (AL:) has started talks with Rio Tinto (RTP:) . Alcan is fighting a takeover bid from Pittsburgh's Alcoa (AA:) .

Rio Tinto climbed 2.4% to $323.07, Alcoa ended up 1.5% to $42.28, and Alcan rose by 3.9% to $89.53.

Aside from that potential blockbuster, a number of small deals were also in the headlines. Chaparral Steel (CHAP:) agreed to be acquired by Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA:) for $86 a share. Chaparral jumped 10.4% to close at $83.59, while Gerdau slid 7.3% to $14.55.

Elsewhere, Megasoft set plans to buy Boston Communications (BCGI:) for $3.60 a share, or $65 million in total, and Digital Music Group (DMGI:) struck a merger arrangement with Orchard Enterprises. Boston Communications soared 70.4% to $3.39, and Digital Music Group surged 12.5% to $4.49.

But other potential tie-ups have hit snags. Student lender Sallie Mae (SLM:NYSE) said its private-equity acquirers have warned that pending legislation may lead them to pull out of a planned $25 billion buyout. Shares tumbled $5.65, or 9.8%, to $52.15.

Earlier, Ventana Medical (VMSI:) said its board has rejected Roche's unsolicited $75-a-share takeover bid. Ventana finished higher by $2.03, or 2.5%, to $82.28.

Earnings got under way this week, and among the Day's early reporters, Infosys (INFY:) beat estimates for the second quarter and lifted its guidance. Wolverine (WWW:) was in line with expectations, and AAR Corp. (AIR:) topped analyst targets by a penny.

As for the Day's research calls, UBS upgraded Yum! Brands (YUM:) to buy from neutral. JPMorgan downgraded video-game maker Activision (ATVI:) to neutral from overweight.

Yum! Brands added $1.61, or 4.9%, to $34.41 ahead of its earnings report after the bell. Despite the downgrade, Activision gained 7 cents, or 0.4%, to $19.24.

Treasury prices fell hard, reversing the previous session's gain. The 10-year note was down 14/32 in price to yield 5.09%, while the 30-year bond was losing 30/32 and yielding 5.19%.

As for commodities, energy prices finished lower in the wake of the Energy Department's weekly inventory report, which showed an unexpected build of 1.2 million barrels in gasoline inventories last week. Distillate stocks rose 800,000 barrels, and crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose to 90.2%, but was below estimates.

The front-month August contract lost 25 cents to $72.56 a barrel, and gasoline ended down by 6 cents to $2.30 a gallon.

Metals prices were little changed. Gold eased by $2.30 at $662.10 an ounce, and silver was flat at $12.97 an ounce.

Overseas, markets were uniformly lower. Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 1.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 1.2%. London's FTSE fell 0.2%, and Frankfurt's DAX was losing 0.8%.

Quote from: setravis on June 16, 2007, 04:10:32 PM

Quote from: setravis on May 28, 2007, 12:40:59 PM
On the way to 14000.......
Last time we hit the 13-day MA we started back up.
Doesn't look like sellers are banging down the exit doors.
The other indices look good.The Chinese don't give a s#*# what Alan thinks.

Someone really lit the bulls tail on fire this time !
On the way to 14000.......and I still feel this way...If it will pass 13850 we are good to go !

I still believe, we will see 14,000 ;) :D ;D........What say you ?  ???
Oh, I think we closed @ 13,861, that's above that 13,850"We are good to go" in the quote up there...now don't let me down !!


Stocks Hurtle to New Records.......


7/12/2007


A host of corporate news, from retail sales to a giant merger in the metals patch, sent stocks surging Thursday and lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the record books.

The Dow Jones soared by 283.96 points, or 2.09%, to 13,861.73, marking the first time the index has passed the 13,800 mark and shattering the old high of 13,676.32 that was set on June 4.

For the industrials, it was the biggest single-day point gain in more than four years. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 gained 28.94 points, or 1.91%, to 1547.70 and also hit its best-ever point. The Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 49.94 points, or 1.88%, at 2701.73.

The big jump came after mostly stronger-than-expected monthly chain-store sales and a deal in the raw-materials space, where mining concern Rio Tinto (RTP:) reached a deal to buy aluminum producer Alcan (AL:) for $38 billion. Alcan climbed 9.9% to $98.45, while Rio Tinto lost 2.1% to close at $317.71.

Earlier this year, Alcoa (AA:) began an effort to acquire Alcan, but the target company didn't like the terms and rejected the approach. Shares of Alcoa, a Dow component, jumped 6.7% to $45.29 on speculation it may be a buyout target itself. After the closing bell, Alcoa confirmed it would drop its hostile bid for Alcan.

Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management, said it was more than just retail and M&A activity powering the market, "although it gave us a good start."

"Investors believe the economy is doing a lot better than they initially expected," he said. "We saw the intense chasing of stocks. People want to be fully invested, and they are getting out of safe havens and pouring into this very strong market."

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners, argued that the focus on M&A activity and earnings drove the market, despite a few disappointments in retail news and earnings results.

"Those companies that have issued weaker earnings and guidance have already been built into expectations, so we're still hoping that earnings will be strong and will drive this market," he said.

Cardillo said, though, that the two spoilers that could weigh on stocks would be continuing declines in the dollar and higher oil prices.

Earlier, crude marched past the $73-a-barrel level before retreating. The front-month August contract ended with a loss of 6 cents at $72.50 a barrel. Gasoline shed 4 cents to $2.26 a gallon.

Retailers got a boost from June sales reports that topped analysts'' lackluster expectations. Among the winners was Wal-Mart (WMT:) , which surprised analysts after it said comp sales climbed 2.4% in June. Wall Street had expected a 0.8% rise. The company also backed its second-quarter guidance and said it expects same-store sales to climb 1% to 2% in July. Wal-Mart closed higher by $1.15, or 2.4%, to $48.83.

Rival Target's (TGT:) same-store sales rose 3.3% last month. The retailer also said it expects July comp sales to be up 5% to 7%. Target added $4.44, or 6.8%, to end the day at $70.04.

Among other retail winners, Costco (COST:) said June same-store sales increased 6%, and Nordstrom's (JWN:) rose 2%. J.C. Penney (JCP:NYSE) recorded a 1.5% decline, but that was better than Wall Street's expectation for a 3.6% drop.

Department-store operator Macy's (M:) , formerly known as Federated, said last month's same-store sales declined 2.7%, and the company predicted that its second-quarter results would probably fall short of expectations. Gap (GPS:) posted a greater-than-expected 5% decline in comp sales last month.

The market's breadth and volume improved from Wednesday's levels. About 3.41 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 7-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.17 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 7 to 3.

The Day's gains mark a big comeback from a sharp drop Tuesday. On Wednesday, that recovery began with the Dow gaining 76.17 points to 13,577.87. The S&P 500 was up 8.64 points to 1518.76, and the Nasdaq climbed 12.63 points to 2651.79.

The week's wobbliness came after a rather uninspiring start to earnings season, but the latest round of reports showed strength. Marriott International (MAR:) said its second-quarter profit rose 11.2% from a year ago, beating Wall Street's estimates. Following the previous session's close, Genentech (DNA:) posted a 41% rise in second-quarter earnings and exceeded expectations.

Despite the earnings beat, Marriott finished lower by 2.8% at $45.04 after it reduced the upper end of its revenue growth forecast. Genentech, meanwhile, lost 0.9% to close at $75.26.

Investors were also facing the first major economic reports of the week. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 308,000 last week. The less-volatile four-week moving average decreased by 1,500 claims to 317,750.

At the same time, the Commerce Department didn't surprise analysts when its report on the U.S. trade balance showed that the country's deficit came in at $60 billion in May, up from a revised $58.7 billion in April.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that trade should add about 1% to headline second-quarter gross domestic product growth.

"Both exports and imports rebounded after their unexpected April declines, by 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively," said Shepherdson. " [May''s number] reversed only a quarter of the April drop in the core deficit, so the downward trend remains, thanks mostly to the slowdown in import demand."

Following the data, Treasuries were subdued. The 10-year note was down 9/32 in price, yielding 5.12%, and the 30-year bond was off 10/32, yielding 5.21%.

Overseas, markets were mostly higher, but Tokyo's Nikkei shed 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.9%, London's FTSE added 1.3%, and Frankfurt's DAX climbed on 2%.


Below are the 6 month, 1 year, 2 year and 3 year Charts.......

Stocks Roll to New Records....... ;D
On the way to 14,000 Baby... ;)


7/13/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 pushed farther into record territory Friday as stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data helped lure in more buyers after a session of giant gains.

The Dow was up 45.52 points, or 0.33%, at 13,907.25, and the S&P gained 5.27 points, or 0.2%, to 1552.50. The Nasdaq Composite added 4.80 points, or 0.31%, at 2707.

Blue-chip indices opened little changed but quickly turned higher after the 10 a.m. EDT release of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The preliminary July reading for the index came in at 92.4, up from 85.3 in June and well above economists'' expectations.

Following the data, Treasury prices were on the rise, lowering yields. The 10-year note added 5/32 in price, yielding 5.10%, and the 30-year bond was up 17/32, yielding 5.17%.

Breadth and volume weakened from the last session's impressive levels. About 2.81 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers barely edged decliners. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.77 billion shares, with losers topping winners 8 to 7.

On Thursday, the Dow jumped 283.96 points, or 2.09%, to 13,861.73, its first time above 13,800 and its biggest one-day advance in four years. The S&P soared 28.94 points, or 1.91%, to 1547.70 for its own record.

The Nasdaq rocketed up 49.94 points, or 1.88%, to 2701.73.

"It was a market melt-up yesterday," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "All sectors participated, and everything moved higher. The market has shrugged off the subprime issue, and while earnings are decelerating, they're still coming in better than expected."

After a steep decline Tuesday, the major averages managed to bounce back strong. Over the five sessions, the Dow rose 2.2%, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished higher by 1.5%.

"The market loves to climb a wall of worry, and that's what happened this week," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "As long as people are worried about the market going up, it'll keep going. I'm surprised by this week's action, and as we go into a rich week of earnings on Monday, we'll see how we trade off of that."

Several other economic reports influenced the tone. In one of them, the Labor Department said business inventories rose 0.5% in May, ahead of estimates.

However, not all of the data points were rosy. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.9% last month, the largest decline in nearly two years and triple what economists had anticipated. Excluding autos, retail sales were down 0.4% in June, compared with expectations of a 0.2% rise.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said the report shows that rising gas prices are hurting the sector, and there's more pain to come.

"June sales were depressed by a 2.3% drop in building materials, which had jumped 4.7% in May," he said. "There were declines in furniture, electronics, clothing and department stores, too. The trend in the level of sales is still rising, but at a slowing pace."

Separately, the government said its import price index rose 1% in June, higher than expected. Petroleum prices climbed 4.7% for the month, boosting the headline number. Over the past year, import prices have risen 2.3%.

Turning to stocks, mergers and acquisitions have been a key component to the market's rally in the past few months, and the pace of deals appears to be holding steady.

According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the Dutch Supreme Court has ruled that ABN Amro (ABN:) may sell its U.S.-based LaSalle Bank to Bank of America (BAC:) without shareholders having to vote. Shares of ABN rose 3.9% to $50.50, while Bank of America slipped 0.1% to $49.50.

Elsewhere, Energizer Holdings (ENR:) reached an agreement to acquire Playtex Products (PYX:) for $18.30 a share in cash and the assumption of debt. The total value of the transaction is roughly $1.9 billion. Playtex surged 15.8% to end the day at $17.97, and Energizer was higher by 0.9% to $107.67.

The prior session saw Rio Tinto (RTP:) come in with a $38 billion bid for Alcan (AL:) , trumping a rival offer from Alcoa (AA:) . After the close, Alcoa said it would end its pursuit of the Canadian company.

Rio Tinto slumped 4.3% to $304.14, and Alcan fell 1% to $97.50. Alcoa jumped 4.6% to $47.35.

Meanwhile, General Electric (GE:) posted second-quarter earnings of 52 cents a share and revenue of $42.3 billion. At the same time, the company increased its buyback to $14 billion for 2007. Analysts were looking for a profit of 52 cents and a top line of $41.7 billion for the quarter.

GE projected third-quarter earnings from continuing operations of 54 cents to 56 cents a share, up 15% to 19% from last year and in line with expectations. The company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year, and shares climbed 50 cents, or 1.3%, to $39.50.

Another company with a sizable repurchase was Amgen (AMGN:) , which said it will increase its own program by $5 billion. Amgen added 98 cents, or 1.8%, to finish the week at $56.93.

Among commodities, crude pushed closer to $74 a barrel. The front-month August contract was up $1.43 to close at $73.93 a barrel. Gasoline prices were down 4 cents at $2.22 a gallon.

Overseas, markets were higher. Tokyo's Nikkei added 1.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was better by 1.3%. London's FTSE tacked on 0.3%, and Frankfurt's DAX was up 0.5%.

I smell that 14,000... :P ;D :D ;) Don't let me down Markets... >:D

People want a summer rally and they are going make it happen.
Yesterday and today they ignored oil prices, weak dollar, gold, and debt. Even financials were up?
I suspect people will set around this weekend thinking and buy again next week.
It as been my experience; "the best way to spot a true bottom of a dip is when buyers start ignoring bad news." Well Wednesday was the dip.

The rally was across the board, all 3 markets.......
Very important, notice the buy/sell volume at the peaks.
Wednesday, buyer volume was up! This tells me the up pressure is there.
That means this rally may have legs. More up side than down side coming.

The tiny PPO chart says you ain't seen nothing yet. 1000 more? :D 8)

The only way we can protect ourselves is to watch the charts to detect massive selling.

I don't mean to sound sure about this, but that appears to be a continuation pattern in the Dow chart. This is a very strong bull market until you see the big high volume reversal where the shorts capitulate. that seems to be a long way off to me. Ive heard some cycle predictions of January 08 for the start of a meaningful slide.

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
2.07%above 13-day MA
3.68%above 50-day MA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 

Index Value: 13,907.25
Trade Time: 4:03PM ET
Change:  45.52 (0.33%)
Prev Close: 13,861.73
Open: 13,859.86
Day's Range: 13845.88 - 13932.29
52wk Range: 11,255.90 - 13,982.90

Bulls Take a Step Back.......


7/16/2007


Stocks came under pressure Monday as higher crude oil prices dampened some of the recent enthusiasm, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average did manage to work its way to yet another record-setting close.

The Dow added 43.73 points, or 0.31%, to 13,950.98, helped by gains of more than 2.2% in Verizon (VZ:NYSE) and United Technologies (UTX:NYSE) . The blue-chip average had climbed as high as 13,989.03, a gain of 82 points, before pulling back.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite relinquished early gains and moved lower. The S&P was down 2.98 points, or 0.19%, to 1549.52. The Nasdaq lost 9.67 points, or 0.36%, at 2697.33.

About 2.76 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.78 billion shares. Losers topped advancers 2 to 1.

On Friday, the Dow rose 45.52 points, or 0.33%, to 13,907.25, and the S&P advanced 5.27 points, or 0.2%, to 1552.50, putting both at all-time highs. The Nasdaq gained 4.80 points, or 0.31%, at 2707, its best point in more than six years.

However, crude's push above $74 a barrel weighed on sentiment when the new week began. The front-month August contract added 22 cents to close at $74.15 a barrel. Gasoline prices, meanwhile, were off 10 cents at $2.13 a gallon.

Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald, said that the Day's action is some position-squaring ahead of earnings, but that the market has a solid base for support and downside risk should be minimal.

"It may be a bit disconcerting that the market has ignored some fairly obvious warning signs, such as the run in crude, but there are also some technical factors that we are likely to start hearing about," he said. "The low volume on the rally is one negative issue, although I would be willing to discount the volume on this rally because it is the heat of the summer. Trading is always lighter than normal during vacation months."

As a new week unfolded, a host of earnings news was on tap. Eaton (ETN:) beat estimates by a wide margin and raised its full-year guidance, and Mattel (MAT:) was roughly in line with analysts'' targets.

Eaton climbed 2.8% to $100.87, and Mattel was higher by 2.5% to $27.20.

Shares of Dow component McDonald's (MCD:) gained 0.4% to close at $52.10 after the restaurant chain said June same-store sales rose 8.4%. McDonald's also said that it expects a second-quarter loss of 60 cents a share due to a license transaction in Latin America and the Caribbean, but that earnings should top analysts'' estimates once the charge is stripped out.

Later this week, quarterly reports are due from the likes of Microsoft (MSFT:) , Intel (INTC:) , Merrill Lynch (MER:) and Citigroup (C:) .

More deals were making headlines.

IHOP (IHP:) has agreed to buy fellow restaurant chain Applebee's (APPB:) in a $2.1 billion deal, and a group led by Royal Bank of Scotland said it still wants to top Barclays (BCS:) in the bidding for ABN Amro (ABN:) .

IHOP jumped 8.9% to $61.24, and Applebee's was higher by 2.2% to $24.91. Barclays eased 0.02% to $59.24, while ABN Amro gained 1.1% to $51.03.

Meanwhile, Ford (F:) is said to be mulling the sale of its Volvo division, while Vodafone (VOD:) spent the morning refuting rumors that it has been considering the acquisition of Verizon.

Ford finished down 1.2% at $8.86. Vodafone shed 1.1% to $33.15, while Verizon rose 2.4% to end the day at $42.76.

Elsewhere, the Financial Times said BHP Billiton (BHP:) is exploring a possible offer for Alcoa (AA:) in the wake of Rio Tinto's (RTP:) plan to buy Alcan (AL:) .

Separately, London's Times newspaper said shareholders want to see Alcoa pursue a deal with either BHP or CVRD (RIO:) . BHP Billiton finished down 1.8% to $66.76, and CVRD fell 2.3% to $50.76. Alcoa was off 1.2% to end at $46.77.

Investors were also digesting the first of many economic reports this week. The New York Federal Reserve Bank said its Empire State survey rose to a reading of 26.5 in July from 25.8 in June. Economists had expected a decline to 18.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said the survey is so volatile that it's hard to give much weight to a single observation.

"It has manifestly not been a leading indicator of the [Institute for Supply Management's factory survey] in recent months," he said. "Moreover, even the medium-term relationship between the headline index and the ISM appears to have changed over the past couple of years, making it even harder to draw any robust conclusions from the survey."

Treasuries were showing gains. The 10-year note was up 13/32 in price, yielding 5.04%, and the 30-year bond added 27/32, yielding 5.13%.

Overseas, stocks were mixed. Tokyo's Nikkei was closed for a holiday, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.6%. London's FTSE ticked down 0.3%, and Frankfurt's DAX was up 0.2%.

 ;D  14002.36........+51.38  ;D

Open.........13951.96
High.......... 14011.79
Low...........13942.85
Prev Close.13950.98   

Dow Stymied at 14,000.......


7/17/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly got through the 14,000 mark Tuesday -- less than three months after it first crossed 13,000 -- but the index was having trouble holding on to the newest big round number.

Lately, the Dow was gaining 42 points, or 0.3%, to 13,993. The S&P 500 was up 3.5 points, or 0.2%, at 1553, and the Nasdaq was better by 11.5 points, or 0.4%, at 2709.

Jay Suskind, head of institutional trading with Ryan Beck & Co., said that while breaking the 14,000 seems like it's only a headline grabber, the market's movement over the last three months should be acknowledged as impressive.

"Dow 14,000 shows the underlying strength of the market, but I don't think it's that big of a deal if we don't close above that level," he said. "It's certainly more a psychological level for traders than anything, and it may even take several tries before we can close above this level, but these gains are pretty remarkable."

Even though the industrials got jittery just after hitting their most recent record intraday high, the bulls still had the upper hand thanks to solid earnings and another round of merger activity.

The Dow, which only achieved 13,000 April 25, is coming off its third straight best finish of all time. On Monday, the index rose 43.73 points, or 0.31%, to 13,950.98.

Also during the previous session, the S&P reached an intraday record before retreating, ending down 2.98 points, or 0.19%, to 1549.52. The Nasdaq slipped 9.67 points, or 0.36%, at 2697.33, but remains near its strongest point in more than six years.

Energy prices again were on the rise, as crude made its push above $75 a barrel. The front-month August contract was higher by 99 cents to $75.14 a barrel. Gasoline prices were up 3 cents at $2.15 a gallon.

Meanwhile, earnings were beginning to flow in at full force, but dealmaking news managed to steal some of the spotlight.

Late Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that News Corp. (NWS:) has reached a tentative deal to buy the paper's parent company Dow Jones (DJ:) for $5 billion. However, the report said some of the Bancrofts, the family that controls Dow, still had reservations.

News Corp. was higher by 42 cents, or 1.8%, to $24.05. Dow Jones was dipping by 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $56.86.

Elsewhere, Basell of the Netherlands, whose offer for Huntsman (HUN:) was recently turned down, agreed to acquire Lyondell (LYO:) for $48 a share, or more than $12 billion. Lyondell was surging $6.69, or 16.7%, to $46.81.

In the energy sector, Plains Exploration (PXP:) said it would take over rival Pogo Producing (PPP:) in a cash and stock deal valued at $3.6 billion. Plains Exploration was falling 4.7% to $48.81, while Pogo Producing jumped nearly 14% to $57.51.

As for earnings, Coca-Cola (KO:) topped analysts'' second-quarter estimates and said revenue jumped to $7.73 billion from $6.48 billion a year earlier. The stock was shedding 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $53.63.

Merrill Lynch (MER:) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:) were also better than expected, as were KeyCorp (KEY:) and State Street (STT:) .

Novartis (NVS:) , though, lowered its forecast. Shares were recently losing $1.11, or 2%, to $54.34.

On the research front, UBS upgraded three major airlines, taking AMR (AMR:) , Delta (DAL:) and United Airlines (UAUA:) to neutral ratings from reduce.

Even with the abundance of corporate news, both stock and bond traders also had to contend with incoming data for clues about inflation and the overall health of the economy. Before the opening bell, the Labor Department said its producer price index for June showed that inflation ticked higher at the wholesale level.

The headline index fell 0.2%, below projections for a 0.2% rise. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose a greater-than-expected 0.3%. The core rate has advanced 1.8% year over year, up from May's 1.6% rise, but within the Federal Reserve's comfort range for inflation of 1% to 2%.

"The May and June surges in core producer prices indicate higher energy prices and slower productivity growth are filtering through to the wholesale prices businesses pay," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "This bodes poorly for [keeping] core consumer price inflation down below Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's target."

On Wednesday, the consumer price index, viewed as the more important of the two measures, will be out. The report will come just as Bernanke heads to Capitol Hill for two days of Congressional testimony.

Also on the economic docket, the Fed said industrial production rose 0.5% last month, matching estimates. Capacity utilization climbed to 81.7% from 81.4%, slightly above the consensus target.

Following the data, Treasury prices were slightly lower. The 10-year note was down 7/32 in price, yielding 5.07%, and the 30-year bond was losing 10/32, yielding 5.15%.

Markets overseas were mostly weaker, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.5%. Tokyo's Nikkei slipped 0.1%. London's FTSE lost 0.5%, and Frankfurt's DAX shed 0.9%.

Dow Fails to Hold 14,000.......

7/17/2007


The Dow Jones Industrial Average marched past the 14,000 mark for the first time ever Tuesday -- less than three months after it crossed 13,000 -- but it wasn't able to hold on.

Several times during trading the Dow went above the milestone. However, by the close it was showing a gain of just 20.57 points, or 0.15%, at 13,971.55. Still that was good enough for a fourth straight record finish.

The Nasdaq was better by 14.96 points, or 0.55%, at 2712.29. The S&P 500 lagged, easing by 0.15 point, or 0.01%, to close at 1549.37.

Jay Suskind, head of institutional trading with Ryan Beck & Co., said that while breaking 14,000 seems like merely a headline grabber, the market's movement over the last three months should be acknowledged as impressive.

"Dow 14,000 shows the underlying strength of the market, but I don't think it's that big of a deal if we don't close above that level," he said earlier. "It's certainly more a psychological level for traders than anything, and it may even take several tries before we can close above this level, but these gains are pretty remarkable."

The Dow, which achieved 13,000 in late April, was coming off a day in which it rose 43.73 points, or 0.31%, to 13,950.98. Also during the previous session, the S&P reached an intraday record before retreating, ending down 2.98 points to 1549.52. The Nasdaq slipped 9.67 points, or 0.36%.

Volume rose compared to the previous session. About 3.02 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as decliners topped advancers by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.20 billion shares, with losers matching winners.

Energy prices made a push above $75 a barrel, but the front-month August contract took a turn south and was down 13 cents to $74.02 a barrel. Gasoline prices fell 2.5 cents to $2.10 a gallon.

Meanwhile, earnings were beginning to flow in at full force, but dealmaking news managed to steal some of the spotlight.

The Wall Street Journal reported that News Corp. (NWS:) has reached a tentative deal to buy the paper's parent company Dow Jones (DJ:) for $5 billion. However, the report said some of the Bancrofts, the family that controls Dow, still had reservations.

News Corp. was higher by 62 cents, or 2.6%, to close at $24.25. Dow Jones eased 50 cents, or 0.9%, to $56.45.

Elsewhere, Basell of the Netherlands, whose offer for Huntsman (HUN:) was recently turned down, agreed to acquire Lyondell (LYO:) for $48 a share, or more than $12 billion. Lyondell surged $6.93, or 17.3%, to $47.05.

In the energy sector, Plains Exploration (PXP:) said it would take over rival Pogo Producing (PPP:) in a cash and stock deal valued at $3.6 billion. Plains Exploration fell 6.5% to $47.88, while Pogo Producing jumped 13.9% to close at $57.50.

As for earnings, Coca-Cola (KO:) topped analysts'' second-quarter estimates and said revenue jumped to $7.73 billion from $6.48 billion a year earlier. The stock shed 68 cents, or 1.3%, to $53.17.

Merrill Lynch (MER:) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:) were also better than expected, as were KeyCorp (KEY:) and State Street (STT:) .

Novartis (NVS:) , though, lowered its forecast. Shares ended the day with a loss of $1.32, or 2.4%, to $54.13.

The earnings torrent continues Wednesday, with releases expected from Altria (MO:) , eBay (EBAY:) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) and Pfizer (PFE:) , among others.

On the research front, UBS upgraded three major airlines, taking AMR (AMR:) , Delta (DAL:) and United Airlines (UAUA:) to neutral ratings from reduce.

Even with the abundance of corporate news, both stock and bond traders also had to contend with incoming data for clues about the overall health of the economy. Before the opening bell, the Labor Department said its producer price index for June showed that inflation ticked higher at the wholesale level.

The headline index fell 0.2%, below projections for a 0.2% rise. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose a greater-than-expected 0.3%. The core rate has advanced 1.8% year over year, up from May's 1.6% rise, but within the Federal Reserve's comfort range for inflation of 1% to 2%.

"The May and June surges in core producer prices indicate higher energy prices and slower productivity growth are filtering through to the wholesale prices businesses pay," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "This bodes poorly for [keeping] core consumer price inflation down below Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's target."

A day from now, the consumer price index, viewed as the more important of the two measures, will be out. The report will come just as Bernanke heads to Capitol Hill for two days of Congressional testimony.

Also on the economic docket, the Fed said industrial production rose 0.5% last month, matching estimates. Capacity utilization climbed to 81.7% from 81.4%, slightly above the consensus target.

Following the data, Treasury prices were slightly lower. The 10-year note was down 10/32 in price, yielding 5.07%, and the 30-year bond lost 15/32, yielding 5.16%.

Markets overseas were mostly weaker, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.5%. Tokyo's Nikkei slipped 0.1%. London's FTSE lost 0.6%, and Frankfurt's DAX shed 0.8%.

Closing Bell Halts Late Rally.......


7/18/2007


Stocks closed to the downside Wednesday, but a late rush of buying interest allowed the market to finish well above its session lows.

After falling by as many as 148 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pared its losses and ended off 53.33 points, or 0.38%, to 13,918.22. The S&P 500 declined 3.20 points, or 0.21%, to 1546.17, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 12.80 points, or 0.47%, at 2699.49.

"A 100-point pullback on the Dow would've been nothing after the strong rally we've had," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "If investors were willing to walk away with that loss, they must feel positive the market came back some before the close. This tells me that liquidity is still out there and people are still seeing value on the dips."

About 3.63 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as decliners edged advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.26 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 3 to 2.

Throughout the day, investors sorted through a crush of earnings news, much of it from big tech names and from components of the Dow, plus a variety of economic data and testimony on Capitol Hill from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

After the previous close, Intel (INTC:) said its second-quarter profit jumped 44% and surpassed Wall Street's targets, but gross margins were weaker than had been anticipated. Yahoo! (YHOO:) also let down its fans, reducing its third-quarter and full-year forecast.

Both stocks gave back nearly 5%.

Those two reports came after a session in which the Dow got past the 14,000 mark for the first time in its history. However, by the end of trading the gains had been trimmed and the industrials finished up 20.57 points, or 0.15%, at 13,971.55. Still, that was its fourth straight record close.

Among those reporting earnings ahead of the open, Pfizer (PFE:) missed analysts'' estimates but reaffirmed its guidance for 2007 and 2008. The stock slid 83 cents, or 3.2%, to close at $25.13.

Fellow Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) , United Technologies (UTX:) and Altria (MO:) were better than analysts were expecting.

"There are problems out there as we've been going to new highs, including energy prices and housing worries. Earnings were powering us, and people were happy until we got the Intel and Yahoo! reports. It's a bump in the road for the time being," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial.

Also weighing on sentiment was news that Bear Stearns (BSC:) has told investors that investments in two subprime-related funds are nearly worthless. Shares of Bear Stearns dipped 57 cents, or 0.4%, to $139.34.

Fed Chairman Bernanke discussed the detrimental effects of a subprime slump when he appeared in front of the House financial services committee in the first of two days of congressional testimony.

Although Bernanke acknowledged that conditions in the subprime sector have deteriorated significantly, he pointed out that "credit spreads remain near the low end of their historical ranges, and financing activity in the bond and business loan markets has remained fairly brisk."

He also reiterated his belief that inflation remains the biggest risk to the U.S. economy, and that the upside risk keeps the Fed's core personal consumption expenditure forecast for the fourth quarter at 2% to 2.25%.

"In short, Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues seem determined not to offer even a hint that they might be considering any change in policy in the near future," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency. "Only if their projections prove substantially incorrect, and growth and inflation a lower than they expect, and the labor market loosens, will they ease."

Energy prices remained another sticking point for investors, as crude continued to hover near $75 a barrel following the Energy Department's weekly inventory report.

The data showed an unexpected draw of 2.3 million barrels in gasoline inventories last week. Distillate stocks eased by 200,000 barrels, while crude inventories fell by 500,000 barrels.

The front-month August contract was higher by $1.03 to end at $75.05 a barrel, and gasoline rose 9 cents to $2.19 a gallon.

Little relief was found on the economic docket. The Labor Department's consumer price index climbed 0.2% for June, slightly ahead of expectations. However, the core index, which excludes food and energy prices, matched estimates with a 0.2% rise.

The closely monitored core inflation figure is now up 2.2% over the past 12 months, unchanged from May.

The data follow Tuesday's producer price index, which fell a greater-than-expected 0.2% in June. The core PPI rose 0.3%, slightly above estimates. The PPI report measures inflation at the wholesale level.

The CPI is considered the more important of the two when it comes to influencing Fed decisions on interest rates, but both are factored into the central Bank's planning.

At the same time, the Census Bureau said U.S. housing starts rose a greater-than-expected 2.3% in May to 1.47 million annualized units. On average, economists expected new construction to total 1.45 million units.

The report did have some soft points, as building permits dropped 7.5% to 1.40 million last month, below the expected 1.49 million annual pace.

Following the data, Treasuries gained ground. The 10-year note rose 10/32 in price, yielding 5.01%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 19/32, yielding 5.10%.

Meanwhile, more deals were in the works, including a potential play for one of the nation's biggest retailers.

According to a report, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is working with Goldman Sachs (GS:) on a way to take Macy's (M:) private in a $24 billion transaction. The department store operator has been the subject of buyout rumors for several weeks. Macy's jumped $3.06, or 7.6%, to finish at $43.09.

Later in the day, a source told TheStreet.com that Goldman isn't involved.

Elsewhere, Dow Jones (DJ:) said its board has given its blessing to a $5 billion takeover by News Corp. (NWS:) , but the Bancroft family will have to sign off before the deal can get done. Dow Jones eased 80 cents, or 1.4%, to $55.65. News Corp. added a penny to $24.26.

Another proposal has Imperial Tobacco (ITY:) making an offer worth nearly $18 billion for Spain-based cigarette maker Altadis.

Overseas, stocks were mostly lower. Tokyo's Nikkei declined 1.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9%. London's FTSE was off 1.4%, and Frankfurt's DAX gave back 1.8%.

Following the close, more tech giants were posting quarterly results, including eBay (EBAY:) , IBM (IBM:) and Juniper Networks (JNPR:) .

History Baby....... ;)

Dow Closes Above 14,000 for First Time....... ;) ;D


7/19/2007


A series of solid earnings reports supported a rebound in the U.S. market Thursday, and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at record highs.

The Dow finished above 14,000 for the first time ever, rising 82.19 points, or 0.59%, to 14,000.41. The S&P 500 was up 6.91 points, or 0.45%, at 1553.08, and the Nasdaq was ahead by 20.55 points, or 0.76%, to 2720.04, its best level in more than six years.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies, said that finishing above 14,000 on the Dow is "not necessarily a breakthrough in technical terms, although it's an important psychological one.

"Now we'll have to see if we can hold on to these gains to end the week," he continued. "The important thing about passing this milestone is that it reminds us that we've had a really good year. It also serves as a great reminder that perhaps it's time for investors to reassess their positions."

About 3.26 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers beat decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.24 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

The major indices fell to session lows after the 2 p.m. EDT release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting before rebounding.

At that gathering, policymakers left the fed funds target rate -- the rate banks use to charge each other interest for overnight loans -- unchanged at 5.25% for the eighth consecutive meeting.

In the statement accompanying the rate decision, the central bank said it would remain on guard against inflation, but it expressed some worry that the housing market downturn would persist for longer than previously expected.

The minutes indicated that members of the FOMC judged that the risks to economic growth were more balanced than at the May meeting, although some members pointed to "rising mortgage delinquency rates and related difficulties in the subprime mortgage market as factors that could crimp the availability of mortgage credit and the demand for housing."

The panel also reiterated its inflation concerns, saying "consumer prices were viewed as favorable, but were not seen as convincing evidence that the recent moderation of core inflation would be sustained."

The release came after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared for his second day of congressional testimony, this time before a Senate panel on Capitol Hill.

A day ago, he touched upon the detrimental effects of the subprime slump. He also repeated his case that inflation remains the biggest potential trouble spot for the U.S. economy, and that the upside risk keeps the Fed's core personal consumption expenditure forecast for the fourth quarter at 2% to 2.25%.

Following the second round of his testimony, Treasury prices were little changed. The 10-year note was static in price, yielding 5.03%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 4/32, yielding 5.11%.

On Wednesday, the major indices ended lower, but a rally near the close kept the selloff from being much worse. The Dow had been down more than 140 points before cutting into the losses and finishing off 53.33 points, or 0.38%, to 13,918.22.

Similarly, the S&P and the Nasdaq went out well ahead of their weakest points of the day.

Helping draw in the bulls was the latest crush of earnings. After the prior close, eBay (EBAY:) topped estimates and guided its profits higher for the full year, and IBM (IBM:) , a Dow component, was also better than expected.

However, concerns about online operations hampered eBay's stock, which lost 1.6% to $33.50. IBM, on the other hand, advanced 4.3% to $115.86.

Another winner was Juniper (JNPR:) , which saw its shares climb after the networker raised its sales forecast. Juniper jumped $3.25, or 12.2%, to $29.98.

Following the most recent close, even more tech giants were posting numbers, including Google (GOOG:) , Microsoft (MSFT:) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) .

Dozens more companies posted their results before the open. German business software giant SAP (SAP:) said second-quarter revenue and operating income jumped 10%, and Dow stock Honeywell (HON:) easily beat the Thomson First Call consensus.

Bank of America (BAC:) , UnitedHealth (UNH:) , Continental Airlines (CAL:) and Bank of New York (BK:) all exceeded targets, as did Wyeth (WYE:) and Motorola (MOT:) .

Elsewhere, Hershey (HSY:) was in line with expectations, but offered sluggish guidance, and PNC Bank (PNC:) was one of the few notables missing their estimated quarterly results. Hershey fell 3% to $48.45, and PNC Bank slipped 2.5% to $71.37.

A raft of economic data also influenced trading. The Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 last week to 301,000 claims. The less-volatile four-week moving average decreased by 6,250 to 312,000.

Other economic releases were slightly disappointing. The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators for June fell an unexpected 0.3%. Also, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its July mid-Atlantic manufacturing survey fell to 9.2 from 18.0 in June, well below consensus.

Meanwhile, traders ignored crude prices that remained stubbornly strong. The front-month August contract rose 87 cents to finish at $75.92 a barrel and is now roughly $2.50 from its all-time intraday high. Gasoline prices were unchanged at $2.19 a gallon.

"Investors are willing to tolerate higher rates and higher oil prices if the cause is expanding economic growth," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "They are a little less happy if we have to deal with these issues and face an economy still languishing below trend."

Among analyst actions, Bank of America had a broad call on the energy sector, initiating coverage of a number of names.

Baker Hughes (BHI:) , Schlumberger (SLB:) , Halliburton (HAL:) , Weatherford (WFT:) and Grant Prideco (GRP:) all received buy ratings. Each stock gained 1.7% of more.

Getting neutrals were Basic Energy Services (BAS:) , BJ Services (BJS:) and National Oilwell (NOV:) . All three finished higher by at least 1.3%.

At the same time, Bernstein downgraded the U.S. refining industry to underperform and cut its ratings on Sunoco (SUN:) and Valero Energy (VLO:) . Sunoco fell $2.03, or 2.5%, to $77.82. Valero slid $1.41, or 1.9%, to $74.52.

Overseas, stocks were uniformly higher. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.8%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.8%. London's FTSE was up 1.1%, and Frankfurt's DAX added 1.2%.

The economic docket is empty Friday, and the earnings torrent looks to be more manageable. Among those due to report are Citigroup (C:) , Caterpillar (CAT:) and Boston Scientific (BSX:) .

Profit Misses Slam Stocks.......


7/20/2007


Stocks in New York sank Friday as investors fretted about a stumble at search giant Google (GOOG:) and a wide earnings miss at industrial-equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT:) .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 149.33 points, or 1.07%, to 13,851.08. The S&P 500 was down 18.98 points, or 1.22%, at 1534.10, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 32.44 points, or 1.19%, at 2687.60.

At its worst, the Dow fell more than 200 points.

The steep decline ensured that the major averages would finish the week with losses. Over the five sessions, the Dow slipped 0.4%, the S&P 500 slumped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq finished the week lower by 0.7%.

"We can't tell if the rally earlier this week was a breakout or a fake-out," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "Despite hitting records, we're stuck in a trading range now. Any disappointment to this market will be an expensive one. However, when you look at the declines this week, they weren't much in the grand scheme of things."

About 3.66 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.37 billion shares. Losers outpaced advancers 3 to 1.

Weighing on the mood was Google, whose earnings shortfall after the last close stunned investors and analysts. Shares plummeted by $28.47, or 5.2%, to $520.12 in the wake of the numbers.

Another trouble spot was Cat, which reaffirmed its earnings and revenue forecast for the year, but reported that last quarter came in well shy of what had been anticipated. Despite keeping its outlook intact, Cat tumbled $3.78, or 4.4%, to $83.20 and was the biggest loser on the Dow.

The weakness came just a day after the market rode a wave of strong earnings to the upside, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at record highs.

The Dow finished above 14,000 for the first time ever, tacking on 82.19 points, or 0.59%, to 14,000.41. The S&P advanced 6.91 points to 1553.08, and the Nasdaq surged 20.55 points to 2720.04, its best reading in more than six years.

Other earnings were positive, but they weren't able to offset the pressure from Google and Cat. Citigroup (C:) beat Wall Street's profit estimates, and Schlumberger (SLB:) and Whirlpool (WHR:) also got past expectations.

Citigroup slid 0.8% to $50.73, and Whirlpool dropped 5.3% to close $110.43. Schlumberger added 3.5% to $96.68.

Elsewhere, wireless-gear maker Ericsson (ERIC:) had light numbers, while at Microsoft (MSFT:) , fourth-quarter revenue jumped 13% from a year ago and earnings met analyst targets. Ericsson fell 5.4% to end the day at $39.84, and Microsoft lost 1.1% to $31.16.

"Obviously, there are quite a few disappointing earnings reports that [were] holding us back," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Still, the earnings that have come out so far have been strong, and there have been no major surprises. The trend still looks good and, when it's all said and done, it should still be a positive earnings season."

In the absence of any economic data, Treasury prices rallied to their weakest levels in more than a month. The 10-year note rose 15/32 in price, yielding 4.96%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 21/32, yielding 5.06%.

Meanwhile, crude retreated yet remained stubbornly close to its all-time high. Oil prices shed 35 cents to close $75.57 a barrel, but finished with a gain of 2.2% for the week. Gasoline prices were off by 2.5 cents at $2.16 a gallon.

"In terms of inflationary pressures, oil is now near that limit," said Cardillo. "It could have a negative impact on the market if we get near $80 a barrel. Anything above that level could really spook the market, as higher energy and a falling dollar would be long-term negatives."

On the research front, UBS upgraded both Yum! Brands (YUM:) and Forest Labs (FRX:) to buy from neutral. Still, Yum! closed down 16 cents, or 0.5%, to $34.13. Forest Labs was lower by $1.65, or 3.7%, to $42.98.

Among downgrades, JPMorgan cut video-game maker Activision (ATVI:) to neutral from overweight, and Stifel Nicolaus reduced its rating for Hilton Hotels (HLT:) to hold from buy.

Activision gave back 29 cents, or 1.6%, to $18.19. Hilton, which agreed to a $20 billion buyout by Blackstone Group (BX:) earlier this month, slipped 24 cents, or 0.5%, to $44.91.

Overseas, markets were mixed. In Europe, Frankfurt's DAX decreased 1.5% and London's FTSE eased 0.8%. In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei edged up 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was better by 1.2%.

Merger Monday Lifts Stocks.......


7/23/2007


Stocks in New York opened the week on a high note, as a string of buyouts and upbeat earnings reports had traders moving to scoop up equities Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a gain of 92.34 points, or 0.67%, to 13,943.42. The S&P 500 was up 7.47 points, or 0.49%, to 1541.57, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.98 points, or 0.11%, to 2690.58.

Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management, said the rebound from Friday's selloff should give investors confidence in the market.

"This earnings reporting season has been very decent, and traders are now hopeful that the negative reports we've had will be the exceptions rather than the norm," he said.

About 3.14 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as decliners matched advancers. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.06 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 8 to 7.

Brightening the mood were several mergers, including a mammoth combination that will see oil drillers Transocean (RIG:) and GlobalSantaFe (GSF:) join forces. The combined company will have an enterprise value of $53 billion, and shareholders will receive cash totaling $15 billion.

Transocean climbed 5.5% to $115.96, and GlobalSantaFe added 4.8% to $78.33.

Another deal had Cerberus, a private-equity firm, setting plans to acquire United Rentals (URI:) for $2.83 billion, and Barclays (BCS:) has raised its bid for ABN Amro (ABN:) to more than $93 billion.

Barclays rose 2.9% to $60.35, and United Rentals added 1.9% to $32.98. ABN Amro dipped 0.1% to $50.78.

Elsewhere, Arrow International (ARRO:) agreed to be bought by Teleflex (TFX:) for $2 billion, and ev3 (EVVV:) and FoxHollow (FOXH:) will merge in a $780 million transaction.

The profit reports were also solid for the most part. Merck (MRK:) easily beat analysts'' estimates and raised its guidance, while Schering-Plough (SGP:) and Halliburton (HAL:) also topped expectations.

Merck gained 6.8% to $52.33, and Halliburton was higher by 3.2% to $37.74. Schering ended the day lower by 0.6% to $31.30.

Additionally, Hasbro (HAS:) and Taser (TASR:) exceeded Wall Street's targets. Still, Hasbro sank 5.4% to $30.80, and Taser lost 3.4% to finish at $16.56.

"It's going to be all about earnings this week," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "With one-third of the S&P reporting this week, it's going to be the main driving force. Now that options expiration is behind us, we can catch our breath."

The market's rebound came after a drubbing in the previous session. Weak numbers from Google (GOOG:) and Caterpillar (CAT:) slammed the market last time out, and the Dow fell 149.33 points, or 1.07%, to 13,851.08. The S&P 500 declined 18.98 points, or 1.22%, at 1534.10.

At the same time, the Nasdaq dropped 32.44 points, or 1.19%, at 2687.60. All three major averages were lower for the week.

In the absence of any economic data, Treasury prices were little changed. The 10-year note was down 3/32 in price, yielding 4.97%, and the 30-year bond was off 5/32, yielding 5.07%.

Meanwhile, the September crude contract traded as the front-month benchmark for the first time. Oil dropped 90 cents to close at $74.89 a barrel, and gasoline prices were lower by 6 cents at $2.10 a gallon.

On the research front, Citigroup upgraded both Amgen (AMGN:) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD:) to hold from sell. Amgen gained 62 cents, or 1.1%, to $56.80. Anheuser-Busch added 59 cents, or 1.2%, to $50.22.

Among downgrades, Banc of America Securities cut ConocoPhillips (COP:) to neutral from buy, and Matrix Research reduced its rating for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX:) to buy from strong buy. ConocoPhillips was lower by 67 cents, or 0.8%, to $85.63. Freeport-McMoRan was off by 4 cents at $98.99.

Overseas, markets were mostly higher. London's FTSE added 0.6%, while Frankfurt's DAX was up 0.9%. In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei slid 1.1%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was better by 0.3%.

Following the close, Texas Instruments (TXN:) and fellow chipmaker Altera (ALTR:) were reporting second-quarter results.

The earnings barrage will continue before Tuesday's open, when such names as AT&T (T:) , McDonald's (MCD:) , UPS (UPS:) and DuPont (DD:) are due to report.

Amazon.com (AMZN:) and homebuilder Centex (CTX:) will post quarterly results later in the day.

Credit Worries Wallop Stocks.......


7/24/2007


Stocks slid hard Tuesday as new worries about the credit arena and a profit shortfall at DuPont (DD:) overshadowed another round of mostly solid earnings reports elsewhere.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 226.47 points, or 1.62%, to 13,716.95. The S&P 500 fell 30.53 points, or 1.98%, to 1511.04, and the Nasdaq plunged 50.72 points, or 1.89%, to 2639.86.

Traders were focusing on the negatives, including the fact that DuPont, a component of the Dow, missed second-quarter expectations. The chemicals concern kept its full-year forecast, but shares slid $3.36, or 6.3%, to end at $49.90.

A disappointment from Texas Instruments (TXN:) , which reported after the previous close, hit tech stocks. The chipmaker said its second-quarter earnings were in line with consensus targets but down from a year ago, and its sales outlook was on the light side. TI fell $1.72, or 4.5%, to $36.46.

Weighing further on the market were renewed concerns about debt, which have popped up several times in recent months. After the previous close, American Express (AXP:) topped analysts'' profit estimates, but the financial services giant said it had to increase its loan-loss reserve because of a higher rate of delinquencies.

The Dow component's stock lost $3.49, or 5.4%, to close at $61.17.

Meanwhile, lender Countrywide (CFC:) missed by a wide margin, citing increased credit-related costs, and lowered its 2007 guidance, saying the second half will be challenging. It also said liquidity for mortgage securities has been reduced. Shares of Countrywide tumbled $3.56, or 10.5%, to $30.50.

"There's fear entering certain parts of the market, and we're seeing a risk adjustment taking place," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "This shift could be foreshadowing something bigger, as everyone could run for the door at the same time. Once markets start picking up momentum, they tend to keep moving because everyone's on the same side."

Virtually every sector finished with losses. Among the worst decliners, the Amex Oil Index dropped 3.5%, the Philadelphia Utility Index slumped 3.5%, the Nasdaq Financial Index fell 3%, and the KBW Bank Index lost 3%.

Apple (AAPL:) , which will post earnings late Wednesday, contributed to the tech sector's slide amid speculation the iPhone maker will miss sales targets for the new gadget. Shares tumbled 6.1% to $134.89.

Trading curbs were put into effect on the New York Stock Exchange for the first time since March 13, when subprime fears surrounding New Century (NEWCQ:) and Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:) first became a force and sank the major averages.

About 3.91 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE, as decliners toppled advancers by a 9-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.46 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 5 to 1.

Another setback came from General Motors (GM:) , which, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, is having trouble raising debt for its Allison engine unit. The division is trying to raise funds to complete a leveraged buyout. GM shed 47 cents, or 1.3%, to $34.65.

However, it wasn't all bad, despite the pullback. AT&T (T:) was better than expected on the profit line, as were Lockheed Martin (LMT:) and CME (CME:) . While AT&T and CME declined, Lockheed Martin shot higher by 3.6% to $103.09.

British oil major BP (BP:) said earnings rose 1.5%, and Eli Lilly (LLY:) exceeded estimates and lifted its projections. BP dipped 2.9% to $72.30, while Eli Lilly finished the day unchanged at $57.17.

Pepsi (PEP:) , EMC (EMC:) and McGraw-Hill (MHP:) were also better than expected, as were UAL (UAUA:) and Northrop Grumman (NOC:) . UAL was the only name in the group to finish with gains, ending higher by 4.2% for the session.

Dow stock McDonald's (MCD:) posted only its second-ever quarterly loss. Excluding items, the restaurant chain matched the forecast for a profit of 71 cents a share. Shares slipped 95 cents, or 1.8%, to finish at $51.55.

On the research front, Citigroup upgraded Wachovia (WB:) to buy from hold, citing valuation. Still, shares closed lower by 41 cents, or 0.8%, to $48.41.

Among downgrades, Jefferies cut both United Rentals (URI:) and GlobalSantaFe (GSF:) to hold from buy. United Rentals was off by 56 cents, or 1.7%, to $32.42. GlobalSantaFe ended down 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $77.60.

On Monday, both stocks made M&A headlines and gave the major averages a boost. Transocean (RIG:) said it will combine with GlobalSantaFe to form a driller with an enterprise value of $53 billion. Private-equity firm Cerberus said it will acquire United Rentals for $2.83 billion.

Away from stocks, the front-month September crude contract sank for a second session. Oil dropped $1.33 to $73.56 a barrel. Gasoline prices were lower by 5 cents at $2.05 a gallon.

"Because oil prices were down so much today, a lot of oil stocks were under pressure," said Mendelsohn. "There is no sector to pick up the slack today. Unless something causes the financial sector to bottom, I don't see any other sector big enough to pick up the slack and carry this market."

With the economic docket vacant, Treasury prices were little changed. The 10-year note tacked on 2/32 in price, yielding 4.95%, and the 30-year bond was flat, yielding 5.06%.

Overseas, stocks rose in Asia and declined in Europe. Tokyo's Nikkei added 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.5%. London's FTSE shed 1.9%, and Frankfurt's DAX was off 1.7%.

Following Tuesday's close, Amazon.com (AMZN:) and homebuilder Centex (CTX:) will post quarterly results.

The earnings torrent will continue before the next open, when such names as Boeing (BA:) , ConocoPhillips (COP:) , Corning (GLW:) , and WellPoint (WLP:) are due to report.

Reuters
Futures jump on Boeing, Amazon.com optimism
Wednesday July 25, 8:17 am ET
By Ellis Mnyandu


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures rose on Wednesday as solid profits and positive outlooks from plane maker Boeing Co (NYSE:BA - News) and Web retailer Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN - News) overcame worries about the housing slump.


The recovery followed stocks' worst one-day performance in four months on Tuesday after disappointing earnings and increased concern about the impact of housing losses on the economy.

Shares of Boeing, a Dow component, rose 6 percent to a record in electronic trading before the bell, while Amazon.com shot up 23.8 percent as several brokerages raised their ratings on the stock.

"The earnings picture is really driving day-to-day activity here. One day you have misses, the market gets beaten up, and the next day you have good news, they raise it," said Peter Dunay, investment strategist at Leeb Capital Management in New York.

"It's looking like earnings will be ahead of estimates on the overall quarter, but it probably won't be a blow-away quarter, which is why you're seeing volatility."

S&P 500 futures were up 6.7 points, above fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 61 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 7.50 points.

Investors may also get direction from data on existing-home sales in June due at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT). The data will be scrutinized for signs of further deterioration in the real estate market.

Existing-home sales are forecast to have fallen to a 5.87 million-unit annual rate from 5.99 million in May, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

In other earnings news, office printer supplier Xerox Corp (NYSE:XRX - News) posted a quarterly profit that beat Wall Street's estimates by a penny.

Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE:CL - News), maker of personal care products, also posted a higher quarterly profit, driven by improvements from its continuing restructuring plan and higher sales. (ID:nN25297913).

Boeing shares rose to $110, while those of Amazon.com rose to $85.75. Other earnings reports due on Wednesday include those of iPod and iPhone maker Apple Inc (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) and oil company ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP - News).

Financial results of the largest U.S. mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC - News), and a gloomy outlook from building materials maker USG Corp (NYSE:USG - News) on Tuesday helped trigger the market sell-off.

How about this?

Contrarian analysis says Tuesday's drop not start of bear market
12:01 a.m. 07/25/2007 By Mark Hulbert
Commentary: Contrarians see little evidence major bear market has begun

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- When I filed my previous column late Monday night, I of course had no idea that the stock market would have such an awful day on Tuesday.

I wrote in that column that the stock market was showing signs of fatigue, and that this wasn't good news.

As fate would have it, of course, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 226 points on Tuesday, turning in its worst one-day performance since March.

Is the market still tired? Or will Tuesday's rout be enough to re-energize the market into mounting a fresh assault on new highs?

For insight, I turn to the investment newsletters. Taking a contrarian perspective, I am eager to see where we stand on the spectrum that ranges from excessive optimism (which would be very bearish) to excessive pessimism (which would be bullish).

Interestingly, I don't see much evidence of the exuberance and enthusiasm that is typically seen at major tops.

Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HSNSI stood at 44.5%.

To put that in context, the historical range for the HSNSI extends from 79.7% on the high side to minus 81.8% on the low end. (Negative values mean that the average short-term market timer is net short the market.)

So while the editor of the average market timing newsletter is closer to the optimism end of the spectrum than the pessimism end, he is still a long way away from that extreme of optimism - some 35 percentage points, in fact.

This in itself is an encouraging sign. But even more encouraging is where the HSNSI stands relative to where we would normally expect it to be, given the strength in the market in recent months.

Imagine where we would have forecast the HSNSI to stand today if, at the beginning of the year, we were told that the Dow would close above 14,000 in late July. The Dow at the time was trading at 12,463, and the HSNSI stood at 65.3%. I don't know about you, but I would have guessed that the HSNSI would also be higher - perhaps at or above its previous all-time high of 79.7%.

Yet, far from rising in the wake of the market's impressive strength, the HSNSI has dropped markedly.

Another comparison that is bullish: In late February, the day before the so-called Shanghai Surprise that shed 416 points off the Dow, the HSNSI stood at 62.4%. The editor of the average market timing newsletter is a lot more subdued today, and yet the market relatively quickly recovered from that correction.

A number of you have written in recent weeks to press about how much confidence one should place in contrarian analysis in general, and the HSNSI in particular. So let me say a few things that I think you should keep in mind:

The bottom line? Anything can happen. But, from the perspective of a contrarian analysis of sentiment among investment newsletters, odds favor that the market will soon recover from Tuesday's decline and will trade at new all-time highs sometime in the next three months.

Stocks End Rocky Day Higher.......


7/25/2007


Stocks closed a volatile session to the upside Wednesday, as optimism following a big quarter at Amazon.com (AMZN:) overcame a disappointing report on housing and a sharp rise in oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which swung between a range of nearly 150 points, finished with a gain of 68.12 points, or 0.5%, at 13,785.07. The S&P 500 tacked on 7.05 points, or 0.47%, at 1518.09. The Nasdaq Composite rose 8.31 points, or 0.31%, to 2648.17.

The gains came amid a solid round of earnings reports, with Internet giant Amazon leading the way. The company's results, reported after the prior close, easily exceeded analyst estimates, and Amazon sounded optimistic tones on the rest of the year.

Several research firms raised their ratings on the stock, including Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Lehman and Bear Stearns. Amazon soared by $16.93, or 24.5%, to end the day at $86.18.

The major averages ran into trouble, though, after the release of the National Association of Realtors'' report on existing-home sales for June. Sales dropped 3.8% to 5.75 million annualized units, the lowest level since November 2002. Following the report, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index slid 0.5%

" [The data] is just horrible," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "Second-quarter sales fell at a 28% annualized rate, the fastest decline so far in this crunch. Housing is contracting at an accelerating pace, taking out with a vengeance the brief stabilization at the turn of the year, when mild weather and plunging gas prices supported activity."

Also adding to volatility was word that Chrysler's investment bankers are delaying a $12 billion debt sale for the automaker. That news appeared in The Wall Street Journal and cited a source close to the situation.

Though the report said the postponement shouldn't affect the plan by Cerberus to buy most of Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler (DCX:NYSE) , it did ensure that investors remain on edge about the credit market. Despite the news, shares of the automaker rose $3.57, or 4%, to close at $93.02.

Worries about the debt arena helped drive stocks lower Tuesday, and the Dow plunged more than 225 points. The S&P 500 lost 30.53 points, or 1.98% on the day, to 1511.04, and the Nasdaq sank 50.72 points, or 1.89%, to 2639.86.

Energy prices were in focus in the new session, as the Energy Department posted its weekly inventory report. The data showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels from crude inventories last week. Distillate stocks rose 1.5 million barrels, and gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels last week.

Meanwhile, news of a Canadian oil pipe rupture raised supply concerns. The front-month September crude contract jumped $2.32 at $75.88 a barrel. Gasoline prices added 4 cents to $2.08 a gallon.

"We had some real good earnings today, and that has now outweighed the housing report in investor's mind," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Oil tried to be the spoiler today, but traders are not paying attention to it."

Despite the strong finish, breadth remained negative. About 3.97 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as decliners topped advancers by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.49 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 8 to 7.

While virtually every market sector finished with losses Tuesday, many recovered and closed with advances Wednesday. Among the winners, the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index added 2.1%, the Nasdaq Biotech Index was higher by 1.6%, the Amex Oil Index climbed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Financial Index rose 0.4%.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies, said the major averages ultimately finished higher because there was so much good news on the earnings front.

"It would take a pretty big disappointment to bring us down, as I think we are oversold following yesterday's decline," he said. "There's not much that will slow down this recovery."

Aside from Amazon, the rest of corporate America generally was continuing to offer numbers that were better than expected. Boeing (BA:) , Hess (HES:) and General Dynamics (GD:) were among the early reporters that beat Wall Street's targets.

Boeing was the top performer on the Dow, finishing higher by 3.3% to $107.23. General Dynamics gained $2.79, or 3.5%, to $83.09, boosting the defense sector.

Also topping estimates were Xerox (XRX:) and Corning (GLW:) . Both of those companies issued forecasts that were in line with analysts'' views, while WellPoint (WLP:) edged up its projections.

Likewise, two major names from Japan, Nintendo (NTDOY:) and Honda (HMC:) , raised their outlooks.

The market also digested the 2 p.m. EDT release of the Federal Reserves regional business survey, known as the beige book.

The report said that U.S. economic activity continued to expand in the 12 districts at a modest or moderate pace between late June and July, with many regions describing higher input costs due to petroleum prices. Consumer spending was generally positive, and most districts reported an increase in manufacturing activity, according to the report.

Treasury prices were little changed. The 10-year note was up 3/32 in price, yielding 4.90%, and the 30-year bond was flat, yielding 5.03%.

Metals prices were giving up ground. Gold was down $11 to $673.80 an ounce, and silver ended lower by 29 cents at $13.15 an ounce.

Overseas, stocks were mostly lower. Tokyo's Nikkei fell 0.8% overnight, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5%. Frankfurt's DAX was off 1.5%, while London's FTSE eased 0.7%.

After the bell, computer and music-player giant Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) weighed in with its second-quarter results. The company blew by estimates with earnings of 92 cents a share, compared with Wall Street's forecast of 72 cents.

The earnings torrent will continue before Thursday's open, when such names as ExxonMobil (XOM:) , D.R. Horton (DHI:) and Ford (F:) are due to report.

Stocks Slammed on Wall Street.......

7/26/2007


Stocks in the U.S. trading session were sharply lower Thursday as weak economic data and ongoing credit concerns overshadowed more positive news on the earnings front.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was sinking 357 points, or 2.6%, to 13,428. The S&P 500 was down 45 points, or 3%, at 1473, and the Nasdaq was losing 68 points, or 2.6%, to 2581.

All three were off their worst levels.

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC, said that it is important for investors to separate the short-term from the long-term picture during a session in which the major averages were getting walloped.

"A number of factors have contributed to this unattractive investment environment, with risk levels on the rise," said Sheldon. "However, the intermediate- to long-term picture remains positive, and this will continue to be the case as long as the U.S. economy avoids recession in the months ahead."

Traders were also monitoring the Treasury market, as prices were rallying and pushing long yields below the 5% level. The 10-year note was up 24/32 in price, yielding 4.80%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 30/32, yielding 4.96%.

John Canavan, market analyst with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, said that growing problems in the credit and subprime markets are lifting Treasury prices.

"This impact is causing merger deals to be delayed or postponed, so the liquidity in the secondary spread market is drying up," said Canavan. "It's making it more difficult to trade this issues, so traders are seeking a safe haven until credit markets sort everything out. This is a straight flight to the Treasury market."

The shock was felt in overseas markets, as London's FTSE dropped 3.2% and Frankfurt's DAX was off 2.4%. Overnight, Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.9%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.6%.

Bulls couldn't find much good news in the Day's economic releases. The government said that durable goods orders rose 1.4% in June, below the 1.9% consensus. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.5%, compared with estimates for a 0.6% rise.

"Overall, manufacturing is not in crisis, but neither is it charging ahead," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "This supports our view that the strength in the ISM is due more or less entirely to a temporary surge in auto production and does not indicate broad or deep strength in most of the manufacturing sector."

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 301,000 last week. The four-week moving average eased by 4,000 to 308,500.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Census Bureau said new-home sales dropped a greater-than-expected 6.6% in June to 834,000 annualized units. The data come a day after the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales for June dropped 3.8% to 5.75 million annualized units, the lowest level since November 2002.

"The credit markets are in a state of chaos, and that's where all of this is emanating from," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "The takeover premium that's been built into the market is falling apart. We have the stock market repricing the possibility that mergers or takeovers will not happen now.

"So far, the Federal Reserve hasn't drained the liquidity of the system, but that's happening now on it's own as the stock market corrects," he added. "Now the yen carry trade is unwinding along with this debt and stock problem. This should be specific to the financial side, but it's crossing into every sector."

Indeed, virtually every subgroup was saddled with losses. Among the worst decliners, the Amex Airline Index dropped 6.4%, the Dow Jones Transportation Average slumped 3.6%, the Nasdaq Financial Index fell 3.6%, and the KBW Banks Index lost 3.3%.

Stocks in New York have had an up-and-down week thus far. The major averages fell hard Tuesday but recovered some of that lost ground on Wednesday.

Last time out, the Dow rose 68.12 points, or 0.5%, to 13,785.07. The S&P 500 added 7.05 points, or 0.47%, at 1518.09, and the Nasdaq was better by 8.31 points, or 0.31%, to 2648.17.

Following the close, Apple (AAPL:) took center stage, and its earnings report had its shares on the move higher.

The stock jumped nearly 7% and was approaching $150 after it said third-quarter net income was 92 cents a share, topping estimates by 20 cents. Revenue rose 24% to $5.41 billion.

Elsewhere, Ford (F:) had an unexpected profit for the second quarter, with earnings from continuing operations of $258 million, or 13 cents a share. Analysts had been calling for a loss of 35 cents.

Ford was climbing 29 cents, or 3.6%, to $8.26. Rival General Motors (GM:) slid 4.2%, and DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) eased 3.7%.

Among other companies with quarterly results, 3M (MMM:) raised its full-year forecast, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A:) said second-quarter profits climbed 18%. 3M was higher by 81 cents, or 0.9%, to $90.43. Royal Dutch gave back $1.48, or 1.8%, to $79.62.

Dow Chemical (DOW:) got by analyst earnings estimates, as did Aetna (AET:) and AstraZeneca (AZN:) .

Dow was giving back $2.14, or 4.7%, to $43.53, and AstraZeneca was off by $1.99, or 3.6%, to $53.01. Aetna was higher by 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $50.76.

Sony (SNE:) said its first-quarter sales and revenue climbed more than 13% from last year with operating income that more than tripled. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil's (XOM:) second-quarter net income fell slightly and missed estimates.

The stock was losing $1.25, or 2.4%, to $51.06. ExxonMobil was falling $4.14, or 4.5%, to $88.65.

Crude prices reversed ground after early gains. The front-month September contract was down $1.11 at $74.77 a barrel. Gasoline prices were off 1 cent at $2.08 a gallon.

Bears Keep Firm Grip.......


7/27/2007


Stocks in the U.S. struggled for most of the session Friday, and a late acceleration in the rate of selling meant another round of steep losses for the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 208.10 points, or 1.54%, to 13,265.47, bringing the two-day decline to 519 points. The S&P 500 fell 23.71 points, or 1.60%, to 1458.95. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 37.10 points, or 1.43%, to 2562.24.

"This was an ugly finish, and Monday morning might not be better," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "The fact that we sold heavily at the end and finished on our lows shows that no one wanted to carry anything over the weekend. Instead of ''Merger Monday,'' there are fears that finance issues will bring ''Break-up Monday.''

Buyers weren't enticed by the latest report on U.S. gross domestic product, which showed that the economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the second quarter. That narrowly topped expectations for 3.2% growth. First-quarter GDP, however, was revised to 0.6% from 0.7%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, argued that "trade will continue to improve, thanks to the weak dollar and soft domestic demand, but not at this pace. The relative strength of the labor market is now even more of a mystery. Despite consumption slowing to just 1.3% from 3.7%, growth was boosted by foreign trade, which added 1.2 percentage points to growth."

Meanwhile, a near-record close for crude further exacerbated buyers'' fears. The front-month September crude contract surged $2.07 to close at $77.02 a barrel, just a penny shy of its all-time closing high.

Disappointing economic readings and continuing worries about the credit market took New York stocks down during the previous session, with the Dow tumbling 311.50 points, or 2.26%, to 13,473.57. The S&P 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 2.33%, to 1482.66, and the Nasdaq surrendered 48.83 points, or 1.84%, to 2599.34.

Earlier in the day Thursday, the losses had been even worse. At one point, the Dow had a decline of more than 400 points, the S&P had fallen 50, and the Nasdaq plunged over 80.

The two-day decline resulted in the worst week for the major averages since early March. Over the five sessions, the Dow tumbled 4.2%, the S&P 500 slid 4.9%, and the Nasdaq gave back 4.7%.

On the New York Stock Exchange 4.89 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topped advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.75 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 7 to 3.

Markets overseas also lost value. Overnight, Tokyo's Nikkei fell 2.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.8%. London's FTSE dropped 0.6%, and Frankfurt's DAX was off 0.8%.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index for July was revised to a reading of 90.4, up from June's revised 85.3. The latest reading, however, was below forecasts of 91.5.

Treasury prices rose for a second-straight session, as investors moved into so-called safe havens. The 10-year note was up 1/32 in price, yielding 4.78%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 3/32, yielding 4.94%.

Following the close of the previous session, biotech giant Amgen (AMGN:) said its second-quarter adjusted earnings expectations surpassed Wall Street's estimates. The new day brought more quarterly reports, among them Medco (MHS:) , which topped estimates and lifted its full-year projections.

Oil giant Chevron (CVX:) posted second-quarter results that topped the Thomson First Call forecast, but the stock shed $2.26, or 2.6%, to end the day at $85.20.

Away from earnings, Medtronic (MDT:) said it will buy medical-device maker Kyphon (KYPH:) in a $3.27 billion deal. Medtronic was off by 11 cents, or 0.2%, at $50.81. Kyphon surged 24.2% to $66.65.

Also, antitrust regulators in Europe are reportedly accusing Intel (INTC:) of unfair competition against its main microprocessor rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) and could take action against the company.

Bargain-Hunters Boost Stocks.......


7/30/2007


Stocks in the U.S. closed firmly higher Monday as traders overcame their early tentativeness and looked for bargains in the wake of last week's selloff.

The major averages alternated between positive and negative territory before going to the upside for good around midday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92.84 points, or 0.7%, to 13,358.31, and the S&P 500 added 14.96 points, or 1.03%, at 1473.91.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 21.04 points, or 0.82%, to 2583.28, helped by gains of 2% or more in Applied Materials (AMAT:) , Sirius (SIRI:) , SanDisk (SNDK:) and Qualcomm (QCOM:) .

For the bulls, who watched Thursday and Friday as mounting worries about the credit market crushed stock indices, the ascent was a welcome development. The Dow lost 208.10 points, or 1.54%, to 13,265.47 on the final day of trading last week -- a pullback that followed a decline of more than 300 points the day before.

Also last time out, the S&P 500 dropped 23.71 points to 1458.95, and the Nasdaq sank 37.10 points to 2562.24.

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial, said that traders had to look to the charts for buy signals in the absence of any major news headlines.

"We're seeing a technical bounce just above the 200-day moving average, which is very normal," said Mendelsohn. "We're correcting some of Friday's excess decline, and I think that's all it is. Also, there's going to be a lot of volatility we'll see leading up to [this week''s] jobs report. Now, the critical thing is that we see more buying instead of dropping down further."

Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities, argued that it wouldn't be easy to rally back following last week's plunge.

"The problems that dragged us down are still there, so we could definitely be in for another clobbering," said Wachtel. "We've been beaten down and we could use a bounce, but we had a declarative slide."

Wachtel was concerned about one subsector in particular. "The major financial stocks are the worst performers, and that has to stop," he said. "We can't have a market rallying when the major financials are getting killed."

The financial sector did in fact rebound, aiding the rally. After both fell by more than 5% over the previous five sessions, the KBW Bank Index was higher by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Financial Index rose 1.3%.

Many other groups also recovered and closed up. Among the winners, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index added 3.3%, the Amex Oil Index was higher by 1.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index also rose 1.7%.

About 4.07 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.36 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 9 to 7.

The new week brought another round of earnings reports, including results from Dow component Verizon (VZ:) , whose second-quarter sales and profits were in line with estimates. The company also said it will acquire Rural Cellular (RCCC:Nasdaq) . Verizon shed 49 cents, or 1.2%, to $41.51.

Humana (HUM:) reaffirmed its full-year forecast and offered a third-quarter projection that should top analysts'' current estimates. The stock closed up 27 cents, or 0.4%, at $65.08.

Elsewhere, RadioShack (RSH:) said its second-quarter sales slid 15%, but the company still had positive earnings, reversing the loss in the year-earlier period. Shares of RadioShack tumbled $3.25, or 11.3%, to $25.55.

On the merger front, Ingersoll-Rand (IR:) said it plans to sell its Bobcat, utility equipment and attachments businesses for $4.9 billion. Ingersoll-Rand jumped $3.63, or 7.5%, to $51.77.

Meanwhile, a report in The Wall Street Journal said that News Corp. (NWS:) would be "highly unlikely" to proceed with its $5 billion bid for Dow Jones (DJ:) at the current shareholder vote tally. Dow Jones'' controlling shareholders face a 5 p.m. EDT deadline to turn in votes for the deal.

Shares of Dow Jones slid 5.3% to end the day at $51.56, while News Corp. gained 0.8% to $22.84.

Amazon.com (AMZN:) lost ground after the stock received a negative mention in Barron's this past weekend, owing to the giant run-up in price in recent months. Amazon fell by $1.34, or 1.6%, to close at $82.70.

Among the research calls, AG Edwards upgraded Exxon Mobil (XOM:) to buy from hold, and JMP Securities raised Motorola (MOT:) to market perform from market underperform. Exxon climbed 0.5% at $86.01, and Motorola tacked on 0.1% at $16.97.

In the absence of any economic data, Treasury prices lost ground. The 10-year note was down 10/32 in price, yielding 4.80%, and the 30-year bond lost 18/32, yielding 4.97%.

After finishing a penny shy of its record close during the last session, the September crude contract gave back 19 cents to $76.83 a barrel. Gasoline prices were off by a penny at $2.08 a gallon.

The earnings parade will continue before Tuesday's open, when such names as Coach (COH:) , General Motors (GM:) , Marathon Oil (MRO:) and Valero (VLO:) are due to report.

Whole Foods Market (WFMI:) and Lincoln National (LNC:) will be out with earnings results later in the day.

Credit Scare Sinks Futures.......


8/1/2007 7:57


The U.S. market was facing more losses at the open Wednesday as worries about subprime mortgages and bad debt in general continued to drive traders and investors to unload equities.

Futures on the S&P 500 were down 5 points at 1456.90 and were 3.43 points under fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures were losing 5.75 points to 1940 and were 4.81 points below fair value.

On Tuesday, the session started promising enough, and for a brief time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead by more than 130 points. However, the gains wouldn't hold, and by the afternoon lingering fears about the credit market had left the bears firmly in control.

At the end of it all, the Dow gave back 146.32 points, or 1.10%, to 13,211.99. The S&P 500 sank 18.64 points, or 1.26%, to 1455.27, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 37.01 points, or 1.43%, to 2546.27.

Markets overseas were having an even worse time. Tokyo's Nikkei dropped more than 2%, and Hong Kong and Shanghai stock trackers declined over 3%. Korea and Taiwan plummeted 4%.

Losses for many of Europe's major markets were between 1.5% and 2.5%.

Elsewhere, crude oil pulled back slightly from a historic high and was lately down 64 cents at $77.57 a barrel. Treasuries were little changed. The 10-year note was up 2/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond was losing 2/32, yielding 4.91%.

On the corporate side, Time Warner (TWX:) topped analysts'' second-quarter profit estimates and said it would buy back up to $5 billion of its own stock. Revenue for the quarter rose 6% from the same period last year to $11 billion.

Also in the media space, Dow Jones (DJ:) has finally reached an agreement that will see it be acquired by Australia's News Corp. (NWS:) after enough members of the Bancroft family said that they would sign off on the deal.

Chaos Ends With Bulls Ahead.......


8/1/2007


Stocks in New York endured a wild back-and-forth trading session Wednesday, but at the end of it all the bulls were able to claim the victory.

After falling as many as 80 points in the morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied late in the afternoon, scaling nearly 200 points in the last hour. The index closed higher by 150.38 points, or 1.14%, to 13,362.37, completely reversing the previous session's losses.

The S&P 500 added 10.54 points, or 0.72%, to 1465.81, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 7.60 points, or 0.3%, to 2553.87.

"On a relative basis this really wasn't more than a dead-cat bounce, as a 150-point recovery isn't much compared to our recent slide," cautioned Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "This type of action should be expected, especially after the Dow fell nearly 800 points from its record high. When valuations are taken down by that extreme, this snap-back was due."

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC, said the most likely reason stocks had such a strong finish was due to computer program-related trading.

"Based on the fact that 75% of the S&P 100 closed higher today vs. just 55% of the Russell 2000 and only 32% of a Bloomberg index of recent IPO's, the late-day rally on Wall Street most likely reflects strong late-day buy programs along with short-covering by investors betting on a continued slide in stock prices," he said.

Breadth was decidedly negative. About 4.93 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where decliners beat out advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.89 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 3 to 2.

Continuing worries about the potential for lending-related blowups kept traders on guard early, and for a time appeared set to sink the market.

Beazer Homes (BZH:) plunged as much as 40% and dragged down the rest of the homebuilding sector amid rumors the company was facing a liquidity problem. Beazer quickly moved to deny the speculation, but investors unloaded positions at the mere hint of trouble.

Beazer finished down nearly 18%, and others in the group, such as Hovnanian (HOV:) and Meritage Homes (MTH:) , were lower as well, but finished off their worst levels.

The erratic action wasn't unlike the previous session. On Tuesday, the day started promisingly enough, and for a brief time the Dow was ahead by more than 130 points.

By the afternoon though, lingering nervousness about the credit market had left the bears firmly in control. Last time out, the Dow gave back 146.32 points, or 1.10%, to 13,211.99, and the Nasdaq plunged 37.01 points, or 1.43%, to 2546.27.

More woes at Bear Stearns (BSC:) compounded the uncertainty. The investment bank lost 2.4% on reports that it's facing losses in a third mortgage-related fund.

Several other financials were similarly weak. Countrywide Financial (CFC:) , which has dropped nearly 20% over the past two weeks, was lower by another 3.4%. Lehman Brothers (LEH:) shed 1.9%, and Merrill Lynch (MER:) slid 1.1%.

For the time being, the market doesn't know whether to focus on debt problems or on strong profit reports and government and industry data, according to Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies.

"There's a real dichotomy that's creating this tug-of-war, shifting the market between positive and negative ground," he said. "On one end of the spectrum, we have a fear of the credit markets and how deep the subprime problem is. On the other end, the market rallies when it focuses on earnings and economic data. It depends on whether investors are fearful or greedy."

Energy prices were also in focus, as the Energy Department posted its weekly inventory report. The data showed an unexpected draw of 6.5 million barrels from crude inventories last week. Distillate stocks rose 2.8 million barrels, and gasoline inventories increased by 600,000 barrels last week.

The front-month September crude contract set a record intraday high of $78.77 a barrel before pulling back. Oil dropped $1.68 to end at $76.53 a barrel.

Treasury prices eased following the release of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index. The index rose to a reading of 53.8 last month from 56.0 in June, slightly below expectations. Anything above 50 is considered growth. On Friday, the ISM will post its services index for July.

The 10-year note was down 3/32 in price, yielding 4.75%, and the 30-year bond lost 4/32, yielding 4.90%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that the decline in the ISM data signals the end of the surge in auto production.

"As the auto boost fades from the survey we expect the headline index to slip back to 50 or so," Shepherdson said. "After that, much will depend on whether the current gyrations in the market morph into a sustained credit crunch. For now, this report should at least sow some doubt among growth bulls."

More clues about the health of the automotive sector came from July auto sales data. General Motors (GM:) said auto sales fell nearly 19% last month, yet the Dow component climbed 1% to close at $32.73.

Ford (F:) reported a 19.1% drop in last month's sales, and DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) posted a 9.1% decline in sales.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose an unexpected 5%, the biggest increase in three years.

Metals prices finished with losses. Gold was off $3.40 to end at $675.90 an ounce, and silver was lower by 6 cents at $12.95 an ounce.

Among earnings, Time Warner (TWX:) topped analysts'' second-quarter profit estimates and said it would buy back up to $5 billion of its own stock. Revenue for the quarter rose 6% from the same period last year to $11 billion. The stock ended down 62 cents, or 3.2%, at $18.64.

Clothing maker Jones Apparel (JNY:) swung to a second-quarter loss and missed expectations. It also cut its full-year forecast, citing a weaker retail environment. Shares tumbled $3.10, or 12.4%, to $21.86.

On the other hand, Kraft Foods (KFT:) posted a second-quarter profit that beat the consensus, and OfficeMax (OMX:) also surpassed estimates. Kraft was lower by 35 cents, or 1.1%, at $32.40. OfficeMax jumped $2.23, or 6.8%, to $35.11.

Dow Jones (DJ:) has finally reached an agreement that will see it be acquired by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NWS:) after enough members of the Bancroft family said that they would sign off on the deal. Shares of Dow Jones finished with a gain of 72 cents, or 1.3%, at $58.10.

On the research front, Citigroup upgraded Apple (APPL:) to buy from hold, assigning a stock price target $160. Shares added $3.24, or 2.5%, to $135.

Credit Suisse upgraded PetSmart (PETM:) to outperform from neutral, while William Blair downgraded Amgen (AMGN:) to market perform from outperform. PetSmart added 0.5%, but Amgen gave back 3.1%.

Markets overseas had a tough time. Tokyo's Nikkei dropped more than 2%, and Hong Kong and Shanghai stock trackers declined over 3%. Korea and Taiwan plummeted 4%. Losses for many of Europe's major markets were between 1.4% and 2%.

Stock Futures Head Higher.......


8/2/2007


Stocks in the U.S. were heading for a slightly higher open Thursday, but investors who've been paying any attention over the last few days know that doesn't necessarily have much to do with where they'll finish.

Futures on the S&P 500 were up 2 points to 1471.90 and were 1.17 points above fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures were gaining 2.50 points at 1963 and were 5.47 points ahead of fair value.

Recent sessions have seen the major indices in New York swing back and forth between positive and negative as investors tried to get a handle on their worries about the credit market, and Wednesday was no exception.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as many as 80 points early in the prior day, but it closed up 150.38 points, or 1.14%, to 13,362.37 and reversed the losses from Tuesday.

At the same time, the S&P 500 was better by 10.54 points, or 0.72%, to 1465.81, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 7.60 points, or 0.3%, to 2553.87. Both of those measures had also been in the red earlier in the day.

Among the new Day's stocks making headlines, Nokia (NOK:) said its second-quarter revenue jumped 28% and earnings beat expectations. The stock jumped 7% in European trading.

Nortel (NT:) lost 7 cents a share in its most recent quarter, but that was a penny less than analysts anticipated. Revenue declined slightly year over year to $2.56 billion.

Viacom (VIA:) , Starwood Hotels (HOT:) , CVS (CVS:) and NYSE Euronext (NYX:) also had profit numbers that were better than expected.

Overseas, stocks were generally posting gains. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.7%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.1%. London's FTSE rose 0.6%, and Frankfurt's DAX climbed 0.8%.

Another Late Run Lifts Stocks.......


8/2/2007


Stocks in the U.S. once again shook off early jitters and made a late surge in the last hour of trading to close solidly higher, mimicking the prior session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell near the flat line in afternoon trading, but when the closing bell rang it was ahead by 100.96 points, or 0.76%, to 13,463.33. Twenty-five of the Dow's 30 components finished in the black, led by a 3.3% increase in shares of Honeywell (HON:) .

The S&P 500 rose 6.39 points, or 0.44%, to 1472.20 after spending much of the day wavering. The Nasdaq Composite added 22.11 points, or 0.87%, to 2575.98.

Recent sessions have seen stocks swing back and forth between positive and negative, and in short time spans, as investors tried to get a handle on their worries about the credit market.

"The bears couldn't keep the market down today," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "That's telling me there's institutional buying around the end of the day, and that type of rally tells you that shorts are being squeezed. We've bounced off the 200-day moving average, but now we're hitting a little resistance."

About 3.99 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, as advancers topped decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.39 billion shares, with winners edging losers 8 to 7.

"We had a rally, but the volume and breadth wasn't as robust as it usually is on down days," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "There's a little buying ahead of what many think will be a decent jobs report. This may mean that people believe that the subprime borrowing issue is more contained than they previously thought."

Before the open, traders began digesting the latest round of economic data. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 last week to 307,000 claims. The less-volatile four-week moving average added 1,750 to 313,000 claims.

Also on the economic docket, the Census Bureau said factory orders for June increased 0.6%, compared to an expected 1% rise.

However, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report was looming over Wall Street. The report, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday, is expected to reveal that the U.S. economy created roughly 135,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.5%, and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3%.

Treasury prices gained ground. The 10-year note was up 9/32 in price, yielding 4.76%, and the 30-year bond added 13/32, yielding 4.90%.

Crude also moved higher, but remained below record levels. After setting a new intraday high of $78.77 a barrel before reversing sharply in the prior session, the September benchmark crude contract climbed 33 cents at $76.86 a barrel.

Earnings were in focus thanks to several solid reports. Following the previous close, Starbucks (SBUX:) reported in-line results but finished 1% lower to $26.92.

Disney (DIS:) and Electronic Arts (ERTS:) also posted results after the last close. Disney topped analysts'' estimates and announced the acquisition of Club Penguin, a virtual community for kids. Disney tacked on 53 cents, or 1.6%, to $34.36.

Meanwhile, Electronic Arts posted a loss that still beat expectations, but the video-game maker offered weak fiscal second-quarter guidance. Still, shares rose $3.46, or 7.2%, to $51.56.

Among the new Day's stocks making headlines, Nokia (NOK:) said its second-quarter revenue jumped 28% and earnings beat expectations. The stock jumped $2.49, or 8.8%, to $30.90.

Nortel (NT:) lost 7 cents a share in its most recent quarter, but that was a penny less than analysts anticipated. Revenue declined slightly year over year to $2.56 billion. Nortel tumbled $1.25, or 5.8%, to $20.49.

Viacom (VIA.B:) , Starwood Hotels (HOT:) , CVS (CVS:) and NYSE Euronext (NYX:) also had profit numbers that were better than expected.

As fears that M&A activity would dry up permeated throughout the market, Fiserv (FISV:) announced an all-cash bid to acquire Checkfree (CKFR:) for $4.4 billion, or $48 a share. Checkfree surged $8.57, or 23.3%, to close at $45.40.

Elsewhere, Dell (DELL:) said it will purchase the ASAP Software unit of Corporate Express (CXP:) for $340 million. Shares of Corporate Express gained 10 cents, or 0.7%, to $13.69.

Stocks Plunge Into the Weekend.......


8/3/2007


Stocks plunged into the close Friday as troubling debt-related comments from Bear Stearns (BSC:NYSE) sent the New York market spiraling downward.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked 281.42 points, or 2.09%, to 13,181.91. The S&P 500 tumbled 39.14 points, or 2.66%, to 1433.06, and the Nasdaq ended down 64.73 points, or 2.51%, at 2511.25.

"On a Friday during the summer months, you're going to see this type of large decline as the negative tone keeps feeding upon itself," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "The buyers packed up their bags once we picked a direction this morning, and there was no changing it."

Bear Stearns fell hard after finance chief Sam Molinaro said during a conference call that the credit market was "about as bad as I've seen it in 22 years." Following that observation, the stock indices went into a tailspin.

For Bear Stearns itself, it was a two-pronged skid. Earlier it was because Standard & Poor's cut its rating outlook for the broker to negative from stable.

Though the shares recovered, they sank again once the call got underway. Bear Stearns, which has lost 19% over the last month amid liquidity problems at some of its mortgage-related funds, finished down another 5.9% to $108.79.

Also weighing on the mood was the news that lender American Home Mortgage (AHM:) is slashing roughly 90% of its work force, and published reports now say the company will shut down after failing to find a buyer for its operations.

Earlier this week, American Home said its backers had cut off its credit and that one of the options that it would consider was liquidation. The stock plummeted 52.1% to 69 cents. American Home Mortgage lost 93.4% of its value this week.

A host of housing and mortgage-related stocks have seen punishing selloffs in recent sessions as investors fled at the first whiff of trouble.

Countrywide (CFC:) , Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:) and Beazer Homes (BZH:) are among those who have endured precipitous drops, regardless of whether the problem was more imagined than real.

Countrywide and Beazer dropped 6.6% and 13.3%, respectively, during the session.

As expected, the financial sector was creamed. The KBW Bank Index tumbled 4.1%, the Nasdaq Financial 100 Index spiraled 3.8% lower, and the NYSE Financial Sector Index dropped 3.1%.

"This problem is going to linger, and every headline is going to cause even more nervousness in the market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Hopefully, these fears will begin to wane. If the credit crunch story should begin to expand further past these related names, then we can say these fears aren't overblown."

For the market overall, the fear that an unraveling housing sector is threatening to take down the entire economy has meant incredible volatility for the major indices of late.

During the prior two sessions, the Dow rallied around 250 points, but almost the entirety of those gains were collected during the final hour of trading each day. Intraday swings have become the norm, and stock averages have repeatedly turned on a dime from positive to negative and back again.

Last time out, the Dow rose 100.96 points, or 0.76%, to 13,463.33. The S&P 500 was up 6.39 points, or 0.44%, to 1472.20, and the Nasdaq gained 22.11 points, or 0.87%, to 2575.98.

Friday's steep decline resulted in another poor weekly performance for the major averages. Over the five sessions, the Dow slipped 0.6%, the S&P 500 slid 1.6%, and the Nasdaq gave back 1.9%.

On the New York Stock Exchange 4.54 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topped advancers by a 5-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.53 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 4 to 1.

Meanwhile, the employment report, one of the most important pieces of data the government releases every month, showed that 92,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in July. Economists had expected 135,000 positions to have been created.

The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.6% from 4.5% in June. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation metric, rose 0.3%, matching estimates.

Job growth for the prior month was revised downward. The government now says 6,000 fewer employees were put to work in June than had been first thought.

While jobs growth slowed, the small rise in wage growth could provide inflation comfort to the Federal Reserve. The central bank will meet for fifth time this year on Tuesday, but no change in the target fed funds rate is expected.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that the trend in slowing payroll growth means that the Fed will have to cut interest rates further down the road.

"The household survey is volatile but the six-month average change in employment has slowed to just 26,000," he said. "If this persists, unemployment will rise further and the Fed, eventually, will have to ease."

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial, pointed out that the jobs number isn't showing a major disintegration in employment.

"I don't think this number has any effect on what the Fed will do in terms of their decision making," he said. "The market has many other issues to deal with, as the other shoe looks to be dropping in the credit market."

There was more trouble for investors on the economic docket. The Institute for Supply Management's services index fell to a reading of 55.8 in July from 60.7 the previous month. The data were well below consensus and hit the lowest point since March.

Elsewhere, consumer products giant Procter & Gamble (PG:) posted quarterly earnings that were a little better than expected. The company also set plans to buy back as much as $30 billion of its stock, and it affirmed its fiscal 2008 forecast. Still, shares lost 42 cents, or 0.7%, to end at $62.88.

Treasury prices were on the rise. The 10-year note was up 18/32 in price, yielding 4.69%, and the 30-year bond added 23/32, yielding 4.86%.

Lower oil prices offered bulls little solace. After setting a record intraday high of $78.77 a barrel earlier this week, the September benchmark crude contract has pulled back and finished down $1.38 at $75.48 a barrel.

Tech Leads Stock Surge.......


8/8/2007


Stocks surged Wednesday as tech buyers cheered a strong earnings report from Cisco (CSCO:) and investors shook off some jitters about the credit markets.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 51.38 points, or 2.01%, to 2612.98, bolstered by Cisco's earnings beat and strong outlook.

The other major averages rebounded from a late bout of volatility and ended solidly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which briefly plunged into negative negative territory in the last hour of trading, rose 153.56 points, or 1.14%, to 13,657.86. The S&P 500 added 20.78 points, or 1.41%, to 1497.49.

For the market, it represented the third straight day of gains after a massive selloff last week.

After the prior session's closing bell, Cisco posted profit and revenue figures that beat the Thomson First Call mean estimates. The networking-gear maker also raised its revenue guidance for the first quarter.

Bear Stearns upgraded Cisco to outperform from peer perform after the report, and the stock surged $1.99, or 6.7%, to close at $31.68.

"Cisco's news really gave us positive momentum," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "Even with the late day jitters from rumors, which gave us a lot of volatility, there is still money on the sidelines and there are some opportunities. No one wants to be left behind."

Roughly 5.35 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancers topping decliners by a 12-to-5 margin. About 3.54 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq, as winners outpaced losers 2 to 1.

The embattled financial sector, the biggest part of the S&P 500, also was in recovery mode Wednesday, despite a late-session hiccup in shares of Goldman Sachs (GS:) .

The Nasdaq Financial 100 Index added 2.6%, the NYSE Financial Sector Index was up 2.2%, and the KBW Bank Index was higher by 1.8%.

The financial stocks'' gains came as investors worried about the credit markets were somewhat soothed by the Federal Reserves statement Tuesday, which acknowledged recent credit market tightness but maintained that inflation remains the biggest threat to the economy.

The Dow fluctuated after the statement, but ultimately the index ended Tuesday's session higher by 35.32 points, or 0.26%, to 13,504.30. The S&P 500 rose 9.04 points, or 0.62%, to 1476.71, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 14.27 points, or 0.56%, to 2561.60.

"Post-Fed, the market seems to be a lot calmer," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Yesterday's announcement was what the market really needed to hear. Things are being monitored, but they're not bad."

Besides Cisco, Sprint Nextel (S:) beat estimates and offered guidance that was ahead of expectations. Sprint started higher but pulled back, ending lower by 45 cents, or 2.2%, to $19.77.

Ralph Lauren (RL:) traded sharply lower after missing fiscal first-quarter earnings targets. The apparel company also cut its full-year guidance for 2008. The stock was losing $10.98, or 11.8%, at $81.80.

Elsewhere, homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL:) said its fiscal third-quarter revenue fell 21%, and the company said home sales could continue to slide until the credit mess is cleaned up.

Still, Toll Brothers finished higher by $1.38, or 6%, at $24.33, because the revenue decline wasn't as bad as analysts expected. The gain helped lift the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, which rose 4.3%.

Railroad stocks were boosted by word that Warren Buffet's investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A:) purchased another 1.62 million shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI:) .

BNSF and rival CSX (CSX:) closed up 1.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

Broadcom (BRCM:) shares soared 9.8% on news that handset maker Nokia (NOK:) will be using the company's cell-phone chips.

Away from stocks, oil prices fell despite the Energy Department's latest inventory report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in supply. The front-month September crude contract, which has fallen 4% so far this week, shed another 27 cents to $72.15.

The Energy Department said that gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.7 million barrels last week. Crude stocks, meanwhile, fell by a greater-than-expected 4.1 million barrels, and distillates rose 1 million barrels.

Investors were also absorbing more economic data. Shortly after the opening bell, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in June. Economists expect a 0.4% rise, compared with 0.5% in May.

Treasury prices tumbled and finished lower. The 10-year note fell 22/32 in price, yielding 4.86%, and the 30-year bond lost 1 12/32, yielding 5.02%.

Overseas markets were rallying after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by a quarter-point to 6.5%, adding that recent credit market problems do not seem to have overflowed into the broader global outlook.

London's FTSE was 1.4% higher, and Frankfurt's DAX was up 1.2%. Overnight in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 2.9%.

Credit Worries Clobber Stocks.......


8/9/2007


Stocks were slammed Thursday as news of a fund freeze in Europe renewed fears about the tightening liquidity markets and a spread of the subprime meltdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 387.18 points, or 2.83%, to 13,270.68, ending at session lows as a triple-digit slide steepened near the close. It was the biggest one-day point loss for the Dow since Feb. 27, when a selloff in China contributed to a 416-point decline.

The S&P 500 slid 44.40 points, or 2.96%, to 1453.09, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 56.49 points, or 2.16%, to 2556.49.

The steep declines came after French bank BNP Paribas said it has suspended three of its funds that have exposure to U.S. credit markets because of the inability to accurately value the mortgage-backed securities. The bank is just the latest financial firm to warn about exposure to liquidity problems in the U.S. credit market amid widespread defaults of subprime mortgage borrowers.

"With fresh evidence of the exposure of credit risk, the market can't get any traction and drops," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "The response may be overdone, but no one wants to get in the way when the ball starts rolling. This is consistent with what we've seen over the last couple weeks. This is the other shoe we've been waiting to drop."

Despite the slide, the major averages are still higher for the week. For the year, the Dow is still up 6.5%, the Nasdaq has gained 5.8%, and the S&P 500 has added 2.5%.

Trading curbs were put into effect on the New York Stock Exchange for the fourth time in 2007. A record 5.48 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE, as decliners toppled advancers by a 13-to-4 margin.

Volume on the Nasdaq reached 3.51 billion shares, with losers outpacing advancers 2 to 1.

The latest credit concerns hammered the battered financial sector even further. The NYSE Financial Sector Index lost 3.5%, and the Nasdaq Financial 100 Index fell 2.9%.

Among individual names, JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) , Lehman Brothers (LEH:) , Citigroup (C:) and Bear Stearns all slid by 5% or more.

BNP's action also punished European bourses. Paris'' CAC 40 lost 2.2%, Germany's Xetra Dax was down 2%, and London's FTSE 100 fell 1.9%.

In an unprecedented move, the European Central Bank provided a loan overnight of 95 billion euros, or about $130 billion, to banks to help inject funds into the market. Back in the U.S., the Federal Reserve put $12 billion in reserves into the banking system.

Treasuries, viewed as a safe harbor in turbulent times, rallied, reversing the previous session's decline. The 10-year note rose 21/32 in price, yielding 4.78%, and the 30-year bond added 5/32, yielding 5.03%.

"This is more of the same continued uncertainty," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "The extent of this credit issue and exposure for the rest of the market is unknown at this time, and the market hates that."

Adding to the concerns was news that Home Depot (HD:) is in talks with the private-equity buyers of its supply unit to amend the terms of the deal, including a potential price cut. The retailer also cut the price of its Dutch tender offer, citing the financial market conditions. The Dow component fell $2.01, or 5.3%, to close at $35.79.

Before the latest setback, fears of a credit crisis had cooled this week, allowing the Dow to rally nearly 500 points over the past three days.

Last time out, the Dow was higher most of the session, briefly turned negative, then rallied to close up 153.56 points, or 1.14%, to 13,657.86.

The Nasdaq was the big winner Wednesday, jumping 51.38 points, or 2.01%, to 2612.98 following Cisco's (CSCO:) earnings beat and strong outlook. The S&P 500 finished higher by 20.78 points, or 1.41%, at 1497.49.

Retail reports flooded in to start the new session. The world's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart (WMT:) , surprised analysts after it said comparable-store sales climbed 1.9% in July. Analysts had expected a 1.5% rise. The company also said it expects same-store sales to climb 1% to 2% in August. Wal-Mart slid $1.97, or 4.1%, to end at $46.45.

Rival Target's (TGT:) same-store sales rose 6.1% last month, coming in just ahead of estimates. The retailer also said it expects August comp sales to be up 4% to 6%. Shares of Target shed $2.69, or 4.1%, to $62.52.

Among other retail winners, J.C. Penney (JCP:) , Saks (SKS:) and Macy's (M:) all reported comp-store sales that beat estimates.

On the losing side were specialty apparel chains, with American Eagle Outfitters (AEO:) , Limited (LTD:) and Gap (GPS:) all reporting weaker-than-expected July results.

Among earnings, Dow component AIG (AIG:) after the prior close posted a 34% jump in second-quarter profit, easily topping estimates. Still, AIG gave back $2.18, or 3.3%, to $64.30.

News Corp. (NWS:) also reported late Wednesday, matching the Thomson First Call average estimate, as strong cable network results outweighed weakness in the company's movie and television businesses. News Corp. lost 39 cents, or 1.7%, to $22.41.

Elsewhere, Urban Outfitters (URBN:) reported a second-quarter profit that was in line with expectations, and HealthSouth (HLS:) swung to a second-quarter profit and beat forecasts. Shares of Urban Outfitters were off 4.6% and closed at $23, while HealthSouth was higher by 5.9% at $17.52.

Away from stocks, oil prices continued their recent tailspin. The front-month September crude contract, which has fallen 4.4% so far this week, shed another 56 cents to $71.59 a barrel.

The Labor Department released the lone economic report for the day before the opening bell, which showed that initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 316,000. The data came in above expectations.

Wall Street Limits Damage.......


8/10/2007


Stocks rebounded from deep losses Friday to close near break-even and bring all three major stock indices into positive territory for a week that saw panic about the credit market roil the global financial system.

After being down more than 200 points on Friday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down just 31.14 points, or 0.2%, to 13,238.54. The S&P 500 eked out a gain of 0.55 points to close at 1,453.64. The Nasdaq Composite shed 11.6 points, or 0.4%, to 2,544.89.

Stocks battled back in a volatile session with heavy trading volume after plunging on Thursday, but not until the Federal Reserve moved in by injecting $38 billion in liquidity into the system to keep rates from rising above its target level.

"The Fed accomplished what it wanted to accomplish today, but we're not out of the woods yet," says Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial Services. "There are still major jitters in this market and there are serious problems in the credit market that still need to be worked out, so who knows what will happen on Monday."

With more signs of liquidity problems emerging from a variety of financial institutions, investors are essentially running scared and blind in an extended period of trading volatility, since no one knows the real extent of the problems. But while the credit-market worries sent Wall Street reeling Thursday and Friday, a rally in the first three days of the week provided enough gains to keep the averages in the black.

The Dow finished the week up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 added 1.4% and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%. The turmoil had the Dow closing with swings of more than 100 points in three out of five sessions.

In all, the Fed injected $62 billion in liquidity into the system Thursday and Friday. The central bank also issued a statement saying it would provide reserves as necessary to keep federal funds rate as close as possible to its target rate of 5.25%.

"In current circumstances, depository institutions may experience unusual funding needs because of dislocations in money and credit markets," the Fed said. "As always, the discount window is available as a source of funding."

Bill Hampel, chief economist with the Credit Union National Association, said the Fed was acting prudently.

"Not all the debt out there is bad debt, but this mortgage scare has people treating everything like it's junk," said Hampel. "The banks have stopped doing anything while they do the sort of due diligence on these complex securities (mortgage-backed securities and other derivatives) that they should have been doing all along."

Hampel believes the Fed will likely issue a rate-cut soon, since the outlook on the U.S. economy is shifting. Last week, the central bank opted to hold rates steady, citing the risk of inflation as its chief concern.

"The risk of a recession has gone up, because there is a real possibility that these credit problems will have a spillover effect on consumer spending and the broader economy," Hampel said.

Fears were stoked in Friday's session as Countrywide (CFC:NYSE) said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that "unprecedented disruptions" in mortgage securities markets will take their toll on the company over the short-term. The country's largest independent mortgage lender said that if liquidity continues to tighten it would hurt its financial condition.

Also, Washington Mutual (WM:NYSE) contributed to concerns, noting in its own SEC filing that the problems in the subprime market has spread into other types of nonconforming mortgages. The bank said liquidity in the secondary market has "diminished significantly."

"This is more evidence that the credit problems are not isolated to subprime," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "This again reminds us that we don't know the extent to which the subprime mortgage and credit derivatives issues are going to spill over into other parts of the financial system."

Concerns about a spillover became an issue in the prior session, when a wave of fear swept over investors after French bank BNP Paribas said it has suspended three of its funds that have exposure to U.S. credit markets. That spurred concerns that liquidity problems in the U.S., caused by increasing problems in the mortgage markets, were spreading globally.

The Dow plunged 387 points-- its biggest one-day point loss since the 416-point drop Feb. 27. The S&P 500 shed 44 points and the Nasdaq dropped 56.

Foreign stocks also tumbled, and after providing $131 billion in loans during the previous session, the European Central Bank offered another $84 billion to the bank system overnight. Both the Japanese and Australian central banks said they would follow the same lead and add funds to the banking system.

Back in the U.S., Treasuries, viewed as a safe harbor in turbulent times, rallied. On Friday, the 10-year note finished up 9/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond surged 24/32, yielding 2.97%.

In economic news, the government said Friday that U.S. import prices rose for a fifth-straight month, raising the possibility that cheap imports may not continue to keep a lid on inflation in the future. Import prices jumped 1.5% in July, according to the Labor Department, beating expectations on Wall Street for a 1% increase. In June, import prices climbed 0.9%, revised down from the previously reported measure of 1%.

Among stocks, EchoStar (DISH:Nasdaq) posted a 33% rise in second-quarter earnings, meeting expectations on Wall Street. Shares rose 1.2%.

Nvidia (NVDA:Nasdaq) after the prior close said that its second-quarter profit doubled from a year ago, beating expectations. However, the chipmaker said there were supply constraints due to strong demand for its products, prompting a downgrade from Merrill Lynch. Shares of Nvidia fell 4.6%.

Stock Futures in the Green.......


8/13/2007



Stock traders in New York were bidding up futures Monday as they aimed to open the week on an upbeat note following the market's recent credit scare-inspired volatility.

Futures on the S&P 500 were gaining 10.40 points to 1461.40 and were 3.78 points ahead of fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 10.25 points at 1939.25 and were 4.57 points above fair value.

To be sure, investors remain on edge about the state of liquidity in global markets, but central banks abroad were making more moves to ease the worries. The European Central Bank has injected another $65 billion into its markets and the Bank of Japan has given up an additional $5 billion.

Now the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve in Washington to see whether it will again intervene in an effort to reassure investors after it pumped in funds last week.

Also overseas, news reports out of China say the central bank there doesn't have plans to sell its dollar reserves despite pressure from the U.S. to revalue the yuan.

Global equity measures were gaining ground. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.5%. London's FTSE was better by 1.7%, and Frankfurt's DAX added 0.8%.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., Goldman Sachs (GS:) is reportedly planning to hold a conference call later to discuss the recent performance of its quantitative funds and detail their losses.

Elsewhere, department store giant Sears (SHLD:) was out with profit estimates, saying its second-quarter earnings should be roughly in line with analysts'' expectations. The company also said it would repurchase up to $1.5 billion more of its common stock.

Homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV:) said it delivered 3,179 homes in the third quarter, a decline of 31% from the year-ago period. More than 2,500 contracts were signed, but that was down 24% from last year.

Treasury securities were climbing. The 10-year note was higher by 4/32 in price, lowering the yield to 4.79%, and the 30-year bond was up 8/32, yielding 5.02%.

Bank Injections Lift Stocks.......


8/13/2007


Stocks in New York pared their gains but were still higher Monday as new injections of funds by central banks allowed the market to begin the week on an upbeat note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was adding 48 points, or 0.4%, to 13,287. The S&P 500 was up 7.5 points, or 0.5%, at 1461, and the Nasdaq Composite halved its gains, though it was still better by 14 points, or 0.5%, to 2559.

To be sure, investors remain on edge about the state of liquidity in worldwide markets, but policymakers abroad were making more moves to ease the worries. The European Central Bank has put another $65 billion into its system, and the Bank of Japan has contributed an additional $5 billion.

Global equity measures gained ground after the actions. Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.5%. London's FTSE surged 2.8%, and Frankfurt's DAX climbed 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was adding $2 billion in liquidity by way of a one-day repurchase of Treasuries and other securities.

"The Fed is buying securities from the banks in cash, taking them off the banks'' hands," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial. "It looks like $400 billion has been put into banks worldwide. That's a lot of money. It's hard to imagine what this market would be like without these injections. It would be an ugly picture."

At the same time, Goldman Sachs (GS:) said it has seen a "disappointing performance" at its quantitative funds of late. For instance, Global Equity, an equity long/short quant fund, has "suffered significantly" during the surge in volatility. Shares of Goldman were gaining $2.34, or 1.3%, to $182.84.

Elsewhere, Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:) sank 31% after the investment fund Lone Star pulled its $400 million offer for the company. Accredited said it would sue Lone Star for trying to back out of the deal.

Still, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners, said the new liquidity from the world's monetary authorities is helping to diminish fears of the credit problem and reassure market participants.

"Investors are starting to realize that what the central banks are doing is a long-term positive," he said. "Now, the market can focus on other things, such as earnings and economic data. It's all about stabilization now."

As for the economy, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.3% last month, compared with a revised 0.7% decline in June. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.4%. Both figures were slightly above forecasts.

The government separately said that business inventories for June rose 0.4%, meeting expectations.

Treasuries were little changed. The 10-year note was lower by 1/32 in price, raising the yield to 4.81%, and the 30-year bond was up 4/32, yielding 5.03%.

On the corporate side, department store giant Sears (SHLD:) was out with profit estimates, saying its second-quarter earnings should be roughly in line with analysts'' expectations. The company also said it would repurchase up to $1.5 billion more of its common stock. Sears was rising by $5.69, or 4.3%, to $138.79.

Homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV:) said it delivered 3,179 homes in the third quarter, a decline of 31% from the year-ago period. More than 2,500 contracts were signed, but that was down 24% from last year. Hovnanian was lower by 13 cents, or 0.9%, to $14.57.

Oil prices were higher following a 5.3% drop last week. The front-month September crude contract was climbing $1.40 to $72.87 a barrel.

Among ratings changes, Deutsche Bank upgraded JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) to buy from hold. The firm also raised its rating for U.S. Bancorp (USB:) to hold from sell. JPMorgan was higher by 0.8% at $44.62, and U.S. Bancorp was adding 0.6% to $30.14.

BEA Systems (BEAS:) gained more than 3% after its stock was upgraded by Bear Stearns, UBS and Banc of America. The stock was recently up 41 cents, or 3.6%, to $11.82.

Stocks Take Another Drubbing.......


8/14/2007


Stocks in the U.S. slid Tuesday, closing near their worst levels of the session, as disappointing comments from two retail giants and ominous news from a Midwestern fund manager put investors back on edge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 207.61 points, or 1.57%, to 13,028.92. The index was pulled down by a 5.1% decline in Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) , which cut its outlook for the full year amid soft consumer spending, and a 4.9% loss in Home Depot (HD:NYSE) .

Wal-Mart said that excluding items, it had second-quarter earnings of 76 cents a share, matching the Thomson First Call estimate, but the world's biggest retailer guided lower for the third quarter and full year.

Consumers, it said, have been hurt by "economic pressure," raising concerns that the housing market and credit strife are being felt by shoppers. Wal-Mart fell $2.35 to $43.82.

Meanwhile, Home Depot also warned of ongoing troubles in the housing market, though it backed its full-year outlook. For the second quarter, Home Depot had a profit of $1.59 billion, or 81 cents a share, down 15% from a year ago. On an adjusted basis, the home improvement retailer beat estimates by a nickel.

The stock dropped $1.72 to $33.52.

As for the other major averages, the S&P 500 fell 26.38 points, or 1.82%, to 1426.54. The Nasdaq Composite shed 43.12 points, or 1.7%, to 2499.12.

Wal-Mart and Home Depot reported on the same day that investors were treated to mixed inflation data. The Labor Department's producer price index for July rose 0.6% last month, doubling expectations. However, the so-called core number, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%, and was half of what was anticipated.

Still, the core PPI has now risen 2.3% over the last 12 months, the biggest gain in two years, something the Federal Reserve will have to keep a close eye on.

"The headline and the year-over-year core numbers was hotter than expected, and that indicates the Fed still has a lot to do on the inflation side," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial.

"The core reading was good, but this doesn't solve the problem for the Fed," he continued. "It still makes it tough for the Fed to ease."

On Wednesday, the consumer price index, which is arguably the more important of the two, is due.

"Without a redirection of focus back to fundamentals, the selling will continue and we may drop below the 13,000 level on the Dow," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "With the stabilization in the credit market yesterday the Fed thought their work was done, but it seems the market needs some additional hand-holding. They should have kept up the additional liquidity in the market."

Stocks took a further hit after Illinois-based Sentinel Management Group asked regulators for permission to stop redemption's to money-market fund investors. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was aware of the situation and would continue to monitor it.

Elsewhere in the financial space, Thornburg Mortgage (TMA:) , which saw shares plunge 46% after it said it won't accept new rate lock requests for four days. Earlier, five brokerage firms downgraded the stock, saying the company may be forced to sell assets to meet margin calls.

Banks and other lenders continued to suffer as worries over the recent credit crisis failed to abate. The NYSE Financial Sector Index finished down 2.4%, the Nasdaq Financial 100 Index was off 2.1%, and the KBW Bank Index lost 2.1%.

On the New York Stock Exchange 4.58 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topping advancers by a 5-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.70 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 3 to 1.

Treasuries turned higher, lowering yields. The 10-year note climbed 7/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond was up 5/32 to yield 4.99%. The dollar was holding steady against the world's major currencies.

Also on the economic front, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $58.1 billion in June from a revised $59.2 billion the previous month.

Overseas, European bourses declined in the wake of cautious remarks by UBS (UBS:) . London's FTSE lost 1.2%, and Frankfurt's DAX was down 0.7%. Overnight in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5%.

Switzerland's UBS dropped 4.8% after warning that earnings for the second half of 2007 would fall from year-ago levels because of the recent market conditions. The bank, however, did post a 79% jump in second-quarter earnings, topping estimates. UBS shed $2.60 to $51.49.

Another loser was Mattel (MAT:NYSE) , whose stock lost 2.4% following an announcement that it would recall millions of toys that were made in China, marking its second product recall in recent weeks. Mattel gave back 57 cents to $23.

One of the best performers was VMware (VMW:NYSE) , an EMC (EMC:NYSE) -owned software company that jumped more than 70% in its market debut.

Away from equities, the September front-month oil contract was 76 cents higher to finish at $72.38 a barrel. Gasoline tacked on 3.5 cents at $1.97 a gallon.

Wall Street Plunges Anew.......


8/15/2007


Stocks had another back and forth session Wednesday before ultimately closing with steep losses, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped under 13,000 for the first time in four months.

After recovering from an early swoon to rise by as many as 90 points, the Dow gave back all of those gains and more, surrendering 167.45 points, or 1.29%, to 12,861.47. The index last closed below the 13,000 mark on April 24.

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 lost 19.84 points, or 1.39%, at 1406.70, and now is in negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq Composite slid 40.29 points, or 1.61%, to 2458.83.

"The technical conditions are not relevant anymore, as we can't get past the fact that there is a crisis per day," said Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities. "Traders are simply trying to get through the day without an incident in financial stocks. The normal benchmarks, such as yearly gains, have to be thrown out the window."

The action wasn't exactly a surprise for daily market watchers considering the recent volatility, and at the forefront again were continuing jitters about credit.

"Each and every attempt [to go higher] is met with bad news that undermines confidence," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Now that the major global central banks have dumped liquidity into the market openly, they will be committed to keeping the spigot open."

Some of the ugliest action took place in Countrywide (CFC:) , where fears about its health sent the stock down 13% to close at $21.29. Merrill Lynch downgraded the shares all the way to sell from buy, citing the lack of liquidity in the mortgage market.

"The news about Countrywide's commercial paper issue was another debacle for the credit market," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "This just serves as a reminder that, with the country's largest mortgage originator in trouble, equities traders are pondering just how far this will reach."

Similarly, KKR Financial Holdings (KFN:) tanked 31.1% to $10.52 after the Kohlberg Kravis Roberts affiliate said trouble in the residential mortgage and commercial paper markets is forcing it to hold talks with investors in some of its asset-backed facilities regarding possible options for resolving potential funding issues.

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA:NYSE) was dropped to sell at Citigroup and A.G. Edwards, but it still had a 38.8% advance a day after sinking more than 40%.

Among subsector indices, the NYSE Financial Sector Index slumped 1.6%, the Nasdaq Financial 100 Index shed 0.9%, and the KBW Bank Index was off 0.8%.

"Given the continued weakness and pressure on funds that specialized in the subprime mortgages, the broader bank and brokerage stocks are getting pulled down right along with the specialized funds as investors panic out," Pado said.

Earlier, the Federal Reserve delayed a planned one-day repurchase agreement due to technical issues, only to later add $7 billion in reserves. One-day repos provide short-lived cash injections into the monetary system and are reversed the following day.

Central banks around the world have plowed in billions of dollars in liquidity in recent days, though the pace has slowed of late.

On the New York Stock Exchange 4.35 billion shares changed hands, as decliners crushed advancers by a 5-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.30 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 7 to 3.

On Tuesday, the domestic averages fell hard following disappointing earnings reports from Wal-Mart (WMT:) and Home Depot (HD:) and more lending-market setbacks.

By the end of the day, the Dow had tumbled 207.61 points, or 1.57%, to 13,028.92. The S&P 500 fell 26.38 points, or 1.82%, to 1426.54, and the Nasdaq gave up 43.12 points, or 1.7%, to close at 2499.12.

Global equity measures struggled in the wake of a decline in U.S. stocks last time out. Tokyo's Nikkei fell 2.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 2.9%. London's FTSE was worse by 0.6%, while Frankfurt's DAX managed to gain 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the economic docket was fairly crowded. The Labor Department's consumer price index climbed 0.1% for July and the core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2%. Both figures were in line with estimates.

The closely monitored core inflation figure is now up 2.2% over the past 12 months, unchanged from June.

The data came a day after the producer price index, which rose a greater-than-expected 0.6% in July. The core PPI was up 0.1% and was below estimates. The PPI report measures inflation at the wholesale level.

The CPI is considered the more important of the two when it comes to influencing Fed's decisions on interest rates, but both are factored into the central Bank's planning.

Also on the economic front, the Fed said that industrial production rose 0.3% in July as capacity utilization inched up to 81.9% from 81.8%. The data matched forecasts.

Separately, the New York Fed said its Empire State survey rose to a reading of 25.1 in August from 26.5 in July. Economists had expected a decline to 19.

Oil prices were higher for a third straight session. The front-month September crude contract jumped 95 cents to close at $73.33 a barrel, bolstered by a storm in the Gulf of Mexico and another system swirling in the Atlantic Ocean.

Treasury prices were mixed. The 10-year note rose 7/32 in price, yielding 4.70%, while the 30-year bond lost 8/32, raising the yield to 5.01%.

Among earnings, Deere (DE:) had much better than expected profits, and Sara Lee (SLE:) got past analysts'' quarterly estimates. Heinz (HNZ:) issued an optimistic forecast.

U.S. Market Set to Plummet........


8/16/2007


Stocks in the U.S. were set for another sharp slide Thursday, matching the declines in overseas markets as financial fears encircled the globe.

Futures on the S&P 500 were falling 17.70 points to 1396.70 and were 13.12 points below fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures were losing 23.75 points to 1854.75 and were 17.51 points beneath fair value.

Credit and housing worries took their toll on the markets again during the previous session. A 13% drop in shares of Countrywide (CFC:) Wednesday had investors continuing to fret about the extent and impact of the credit market crisis on corporate earnings and the economy.

Last time out, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 167.45 points, or 1.29%, to 12,861.47, the first time the index has closed below 13,000 since April 24. The S&P 500 lost 19.84 points, or 1.39%, to 1406.70, and is now negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite slid 40.29 points, or 1.61%, to 2458.83.

Selling at home begat selling overseas, as global indices struggled in the wake of declines in U.S. stocks. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 3.3%. London's FTSE was worse by 3%, and Frankfurt's DAX dropped 2.7%.

Treasury prices were rallying as investors scrambled for a safe haven. The 10-year note was higher by 18/32 in price, cutting the yield to 4.65%, and the 30-year bond was up 31/32, yielding 4.96%.

More bad news for the housing sector is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT, when the Commerce Department will post housing starts data for July. The report is expected to show drop-offs in both starts and building permits.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole told Bloomberg that subprime mortgage woes are still not a threat to the U.S. economy. Only a "calamity," he said, would prompt the Fed to cut interest rates.

Several big names are due to report earnings later. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:) , Fannie Mae (FNM:) , and Autodesk (ADSK:) will all release their quarterly numbers.

Retailers J.C. Penney (JCP:) , Kohl's (KSS:) , and Nordstrom (JWN:) are also set to report results.

Stocks Fly After Fed Cut.......


8/17/2007


A surprise cut in the Federal Reserves lending rate to banks sent stocks higher Friday as traders hoped the move would help bring some calm to the turbulent financial markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 233.30 points, or 1.82%, to 13,079.08, and the S&P 500 added 34.67 points, or 2.46%, to 1445.94. The Nasdaq Composite gained 53.96 points, or 2.2%, to 2505.03. Earlier, the Dow was up more than 300.

The Fed, reacting to a crisis in liquidity conditions that has roiled markets around the world, reduced the discount rate, or the interest rate it charges banks that want to borrow, 50 basis points to 5.75%.

Discount-window borrowing is intended to provide liquidity to individual institutions in the event of short-term funding needs. It differs from the better-known fed funds rate, which is used when banks lend to each other.

A statement from the Fed said that "financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward."

The central bank reiterated that it believes the economy is continuing to expand at a moderate pace, but "downside risks to growth have increased appreciably."

"The Fed's move to cut the discount will certainly help alleviate the liquidity problem," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "They left the fed funds rate unchanged, but they said they are monitoring the situation. They were concerned about growth faltering, they acted, and the markets like it."

Separately, the Fed injected another $6 billion of liquidity into the system by way of a three-day repurchase agreement.

Despite the rally, the major averages were still lower for the week. The Dow lost 1.2% over the five sessions, the S&P 500 dipped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq ended down 1.5%.

Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, questioned whether the gains will stick at the start of next week.

"If markets fail to respond positively today and hold those gains through next week, the economy will be in a crisis of confidence that is truly threatening to our prosperity," he said. "If not, we are in much bigger trouble than economists have conceded so far."

Breadth was decidedly positive for the only time this week. On the New York Stock Exchange 5.07 billion shares changed hands, as advancers topped decliners by a 7-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 2.61 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 8 to 3.

Overseas, Asia's indices were hit hard, but Europe bounced after the Fed cut. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.4% overnight. London's FTSE rebounded from early losses to jump 3.5%, and Germany's Xetra Dax added 1.5%.

The recent surge in the value of the Japanese yen was partly to blame for the heavy declines in Asia. The yen is at its highest against the dollar in over a year.

Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management, said the Fed's move may not be the end of the selling pressure.

"This has stemmed the downward pressure for now, but this is the discount window and not the fed funds rate," said Pavlik. "Mortgage loans are not tied to the discount window. This doesn't help the individual consumer because it doesn't completely straighten out the subprime mess. It's not necessarily going to bring back the market liquidity that helped finance all the leveraged buyout and private-equity deals."

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that traders can only speculate, but "the decision to move the primary discount rate rather than the fed funds rate may indicate that the Fed anticipates some institutional failure ... probably not a bank, but rather an institution that has substantial bank liabilities that may not be able to clear."

U.S. Treasury bonds, which had been a safe haven for investors as the major averages slid dramatically this week, were losing ground late. The 10-year note was lower by 2/32 in price, raising the yield to 4.67%, and the 30-year bond was down 22/32, yielding 5.00%.

Energy and commodity prices rebounded after falling hard last time. Oil prices dropped $2.33 during the previous session, but finished up 98 cents to close at $71.98 a barrel. Gold futures gained $8.80 to $666.80 an ounce, and silver was higher by 30 cents to $11.80 an ounce.

Among equity names, Countrywide (CFC:) was again making headlines. The stock tumbled earlier this week on worries about its health and its need to tap an $11.5 billion credit line.

However, Banc of America Securities upgraded Countrywide to neutral from sell, saying it believes that the decision to access credit should help the company weather the subprime storm. Shares rallied $2.48, or 13.1%, to $21.43.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:) was also in focus after the tech giant posted fiscal third-quarter earnings following the previous close that beat Wall Street's estimates.

H-P also raised fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and sales guidance, and the stock ended up $1.10, or 2.4%, to $47.15.

Fickle Market Ends Mixed.......


8/21/2007


Stocks in the U.S. endured another seesaw trading session Tuesday as questions and concerns about the credit markets and the role of the Federal Reserve continued to swirl.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 30.49 points, or 0.2%, to 13,090.86, and the S&P 500 added 1.57 points, or 0.1%, to 1447.12. The Nasdaq was better by 12.71 points, or 0.5%, at 2521.30.

New York's major averages rose to their short-lived session highs at midday after Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will take advantage of all the means he has to stabilize the markets.

He made his comments following a meeting with Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Some traders took that to mean a reduction in the fed funds target rate from the 5.25% level, where it has been for more than a year, could be on the horizon. Futures contracts indicate traders are uniformly expecting a cut in the near future.

Those hopes were stoked last week when the Fed unexpectedly lowered the discount rate, the rate it charges on loans to banks, by 50 basis points. The fed funds rate is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans. Dodd said he didn't ask Bernanke to cut the fed funds target.

However, the move up was quickly halted by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker. Speaking in Charlotte, N.C., Lacker, who has a reputation for hawkish views, said the recent volatility wasn't necessarily a reason for a rate cut and that there is still room to be worried about inflation.

"Even without a change in the interest rate target, the Fed has tools at its disposal that can help the market make necessary adjustments in times like these," he said, in prepared remarks.

Lacker currently isn't a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the policymaking body that votes on the fed funds rate, but because he is a Fed official, his words still carry considerable weight.

Earlier, in a televised interview, Paulson tried to sound a calming tone, saying that while there are liquidity concerns and stresses in the capital markets, the domestic and global economies remain strong.

"These things take a while to play out," he said, and eventually "liquidity will return to normal."

Meanwhile, signs of the credit crisis flared up again. Following the prior close, Capital One Financial (COF:) said it will shut down its wholesale mortgage business, eliminating 1,900 jobs in the process.

Shares of Capital One rose 2.6% in the wake of the announcement as investors hoped the move would mitigate the chance the company will be hurt by the troubles in the mortgage world.

Elsewhere, Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:Nasdaq) signed an agreement to swap about $1 billion of loans under a 90-day purchase agreement. The transaction will reduce the company's exposure to margin calls on the loans, Accredited said. Its shares rose 1.7%.

The homebuilders weren't as fortunate. Banc of America downgraded Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE) to sell from neutral and cut Hovnanian (HOV:NYSE) and Standard Pacific (SPF:NYSE) to neutral from buy, saying it believes cancellations have been increasing.

All three stocks traded lower.

Separately, RealtyTrac said the number of foreclosure filings in July soared 93% from the same month a year ago to 179,599, illustrating the difficulties facing the housing arena.

Treasury bonds were on the rise. The 30-year gained 9/32 in price, lowering the yield to 4.95%, and the 10-year note added 9/32 in price, yielding 4.59%. Yields on three-month bills rebounded to 3.62% after plunging during the last session.

As for the foreign-exchange market, the dollar was little changed against the yen and the euro.

Overseas, the People's Bank of China raised interest rates for the fourth time this year as the central bank aimed to control inflation. In Europe, the Bank of England said at least one lender used its lending facility, similar to the Fed's discount window, for the first time in over a month.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 1.1% overnight. London's FTSE was up 0.1%, and Germany's Xetra Dax tacked on 0.2%.

Away from the financial sector, earnings were out from several retailers. Target (TGT:) was in line with expectations and reaffirmed its outlook, and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ:) exceeded estimates.

Saks (SKS:) beat by a penny, and Staples (SPLS:) was in line. American Eagle (AEO:NYSE) topped the consensus but issued downside guidance, while Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS:NYSE) surpassed analysts'' targets and guided higher.

Crude oil was lower as Hurricane Dean made landfall in Mexico, sparing major oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico. The September benchmark crude contract shed $1.65 to $69.47 a barrel. Natural gas was soft again, losing 22 cents to $5.82 per million British thermal units.

Stocks Take Small Step Back.......


Thursday...8/23/2007


Stocks in the U.S. finished slightly lower Thursday as buyers took a breather after the prior session's rally and failed to embrace news of a handout for embattled lender Countrywide Financial (CFC:) .

After rising 40 points at the start of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back and ended down 0.25 point at 13,235.88. The S&P 500 eased 1.57 points, or 0.11%, at 1462.50. The Nasdaq Composite was moderately weaker, losing 11.10 points, or 0.43%, to 2541.70.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners, said the market "is now beginning to digest and stabilize. In spite of the recent situation in the credit market, the economy remains sound. That may be making investors a bit hesitant, especially if the Federal Reserve doesn't lower interest rates at its next meeting in September."

Before the opening bell, Bank of America (BAC:) said it has invested $2 billion in Countrywide in order to help the largest mortgage lender in the U.S. weather the current difficulties in the credit market.

However, Countryside's CEO Angelo Mozilo said in a televised interview that the credit environment is "not getting better" and that it is unclear when the housing cycle will bottom. He added that a steeper downturn could lead to a recession, and that the Fed should cut rates in order to inject liquidity into the market.

After soaring 20% in the premarket session, the stock finished with a small gain of 20 cents, or 0.9%, at $22.02. The shares have lost 22% this month.

"The market held up pretty well, as the credit system looks like it has started to work again," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial. "Some believe we've put in a bottom and some believe the worst is yet to come. The volatility has weakened, though, which is a good thing for investors that are looking to position themselves ahead of the next Fed meeting."

Meanwhile, a report on loans made through the Fed's discount window came out after the close, showing that an average of about $1.2 billion a day was borrowed by banks. Last Friday, the Fed reacted to a crisis in liquidity by reducing the discount rate, the interest rate it charges banks that want to borrow, 50 basis points to 5.75%.

Bank of America, Citigroup (C:) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) and Wachovia (WB:) have said they each borrowed $500 million from the Fed at that 5.75% interest rate.

"The move by the four major banks to go to the discount window and borrow $500 million apiece helped instill a sense of confidence," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "The amount isn't important. The banks were making an effort to validate the move by the Fed, and that proved to be a positive for the financials."

Breadth weakened from the prior day. On the New York Stock Exchange 3.10 billion shares changed hands, as advancers matched decliners. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.65 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 3 to 2.

Merger chatter in the sector put buyers in control Wednesday. The Dow gained 145.27 points, or 1.11%, to finish at 13,236.13. The S&P 500 was up 16.95 points, or 1.17%, at 1464.07, and the Nasdaq rose 31.50 points, or 1.25%, to 2552.80.

Global indices followed suit. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei climbed 2.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was better by 2.8%. China's Shanghai Composite tacked on 1%, sending it above 5000 for the first time.

Markets in the U.K., France and Germany were only slightly higher after coming off their best levels.

Elsewhere, Impac Mortgage (IMH:) said it is cutting back its mortgage origination business, eliminating 350 jobs. Shares lost 4 cents, or 2.4%, to close at $1.61. The move comes one day after Lehman Brothers (LEH:) said it is shuttering its subprime lender BNC Mortgage, resulting in the termination of 1,200 positions in 23 locations.

HSBC Holdings (HBC:) and Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:) have also said they would cut jobs.

Moody's Investors Service placed the ratings of three homebuilders, Centex (CTX:) , Lennar (LEN:) and Pulte Homes (PHM:) , under review for possible downgrades, and the stocks were mixed.

Lennar was higher by 2.2% and Pulte Homes gained 0.6%. Centex finished with a 0.5% decline.

On the ratings front, JMP Securities upgraded Toll Brothers (TOL:) to market perform from underperform. Shares tacked on 0.7% to $22.30.

Away from stocks, the front-month October crude contract added 57 cents and closed at $69.83 a barrel. Gasoline prices gained 3.5 cents to $1.92 a gallon.

On the economic front, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 last week to 322,000 claims, the first decline in a month. The less-volatile four-week moving average rose by 4,750 to 317,750.

Treasury bonds gained. The 10-year note rose 9/32 in price, reducing the yield to 4.62%. The 30-year bond was up 18/32 in price, yielding 4.92%.



The Dow 6 Month chart.......

Strong Data Spark Rally.......


Friday 8/24/2007


Stocks ended the week with solid gains Friday as traders cheered surprisingly positive data on the housing sector and the broader economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 142.99 points, or 1.08%, to 13,378.87, helped by a strong upswing in the last hour of trading. The S&P 500 added 16.87 points, or 1.15%, to 1479.37. After opening lower, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 34.99 points, or 1.38%, to 2576.69.

The market shrugged off early sluggishness after the Commerce Department said new-home sales unexpectedly rose 2.8% to 870,000 annualized units. Economists had expected that sales would decline 1% to 825,000 units. June's initial read of 834,000 units was revised upward to 846,000.

"These numbers tend to be volatile and are subject to revisions," pointed out Steven Sheldon, principal of SMS Capital Management. "It's hard to understand why home sales are surging right now. It will take months to unfold, so you can't take credence in one set of numbers. This is already dated information, but the Federal Reserve will be paying attention."

Also on the economic front, the government said durable goods orders jumped 5.9% in July, nearly six times the consensus target and triple the revised 1.9% advance in June. Excluding transportation, orders rose 3.7%, the largest climb in two years.

Both reports arrived a day after Countrywide Financial's (CFC:) CEO Angelo Mozilo rattled the market, saying in a televised interview on CNBC that the credit environment is "not getting better" and that it's not clear when the housing cycle will bottom.

Mozilo added that a downturn in housing could possibly lead to a recession, and that the Fed should cut rates in order to get new liquidity into the market.

Those comments contributed to the major averages'' inability to hold early gains last time out, when the Dow eased 0.25 points at 13,235.88. The S&P 500 slipped 1.57 points at 1462.50, and the Nasdaq shed 11.10 points to 2541.70.

Shortly after the last close, a report on loans made through the Fed's discount window was released, showing that an average of about $1.2 billion a day was borrowed by banks during the past week. Last week, the Fed cut the discount rate, the interest rate it charges to lend to banks, by 50 basis points to 5.75%.

Financial subsector indices started lower but finished with slight gains. The Nasdaq Financial 100 advanced 1%, the NYSE Financial Sector Index was up 0.7%, and the KBW Bank Index tacked on 0.5%.

The major averages finished higher for the week as the recent turmoil in the credit markets abated somewhat. The Dow rose 2.3% over the five sessions, the S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Nasdaq ended up 2.8%.

Breadth was decidedly positive, while volume was weaker compared to previous sessions. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.60 billion shares changed hands, as advancers topped decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.66 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 3 to 1.

Turning to stocks, Home Depot (HD:) may accept $1.2 billion less than the original $10.3 billion from three private-equity companies in a deal for its wholesale distribution business, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Home Depot added 66 cents, or 1.9%, to $34.68.

Marvell Technology (MRVL:) dropped 11.8% after it swung to a second-quarter loss. Marvell lost $2.10 to $15.75.

Brocade Communications (BRCD:) rose 4.3% after topping third-quarter estimates following the previous close. Brocade was higher by 30 cents at $7.26.

Apparel retailer Gap (GPS:) posted a better-than-expected 19% rise in second-quarter profits and raised its guidance for the year. Gap ended up $1.11, or 6.4%, to $18.51.

Meanwhile, fellow clothing seller AnnTaylor (ANN:) said second-quarter profits dropped 27% from a year ago but still topped expectations. The stock climbed $2.79, or 9.4%, to $32.43.

Gains in Gap and AnnTaylor boosted the S&P Retail Index, which finished with a gain of 1.9%.

Elsewhere, the front-month October crude contract rose $1.26 to end at $71.09 a barrel. Gasoline prices gained 6 cents at $1.99 a gallon.

Treasury bonds were gaining ground. The 10-year note was higher by 5/32 in price, yielding 4.63%. The 30-year bond added 26/32 in price, cutting the yield to 4.89%.

Global indices were mostly lower. Overnight, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei 225 shed 0.4%. In Europe, London's FTSE was up 0.4%, while Germany's Xetra Dax lost 0.1%.

         

Wall Street Drifts Downward.......


Monday 8/27/2007


Stocks in the U.S. opened the week with modest losses Monday as another report detailing the softness in the housing sector kept buyers from remaining interested.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a brief push into the green after midday, but it ultimately closed down 56.74 points, or 0.42%, at 13,322.13. The S&P 500 was off 12.58 points, or 0.85%, to 1466.79, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 15.44 points, or 0.6%, at 2561.25.

Shortly after the opening bell, the National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales dipped 0.2% to 5.75 million annualized units in July. The data came in higher than expectations but marked the lowest level of sales since November 2002.

Inventories of unsold homes, meanwhile, rose 5.1%, representing a 9.6-month supply.

"This [report] does not change the underlying trend, which is horrible," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "In particular, inventory continues to soar. In this environment, prices would be falling even if all was well in the mortgage market, so in today's troubled circumstances we have to expect steep declines for the foreseeable future."

Housing stocks Toll Brothers (TOL:) , Lennar (LEN:) , Centex (CTX:) and Pulte Homes (PHM:) all finished lower by 4.5% or more.

The report comes after separate data from Commerce Department on Friday showing that new-home sales unexpectedly rose 2.8% to 870,000 annualized units. Economists had expected that sales would decline 1% to 825,000 homes.

Those numbers helped boosted the major averages, which finished out another volatile week with gains.

The Dow rose 142.99 points, or 1.08%, to 13,378.87, aided by a strong upswing in the last hour of trading. The S&P 500 added 16.87 points, or 1.15%, to 1479.37, and the Nasdaq jumped 34.99 points, or 1.38%, to 2576.69.

Volume was sluggish to begin the new week. On the New York Stock Exchange, 2.39 billion shares changed hands Monday, as decliners topped advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.32 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 2 to 1.

Volume may continue to be light as the pre-holiday week progresses, though traders will have a torrent of economic data to digest. Minutes from the Federal Reserves policy meeting on Aug. 7 are due Tuesday, and reports on second-quarter gross domestic product and personal income and spending, among others, are expected later in the week.

"The economic calendar is full this week and there's certainly a lot of data to focus on," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "It's hard to tell, though, if there will be enough participants around this week to make anything exciting happen. This whole summer has been pretty surprising, in that there has been more activity than anyone expected."

Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that the unexpected increases in new home sales and durable goods orders to round out last week were "an indication that just maybe the economy remains on sounder footing than many believe and the fallout from subprime lending is relatively contained.

"What did disappear last week was the thought that the Federal Reserve was going to have to cut rates at their September meeting, although a rate cut still seems likely by year-end," Nolte added.

Though the turmoil in the credit markets has settled somewhat, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said over the weekend that the risks of a recession are at their highest since the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

Additionally, Summers said, efforts by Congress to restrict lenders Fannie Mae (FNM:) and Freddie Mac (FRE:) were badly timed, and that "we should be encouraging them to provide capital in the subprime space."

Among equities, Home Depot (HD:) will accept $1.8 billion less than the original $10.3 billion planned from three private-equity companies in a deal for its wholesale distribution business.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the home-repair retailer guaranteed $1 billion of the debt the buyers will take on to complete the transaction. Home Depot climbed 57 cents, or 1.6%, to $35.25.

Other M&A activity was making headlines, as well. Computer maker Gateway (GTW:) will be acquired by Taiwan's Acer in a $710 million deal. The bid values shares of Gateway at a 57% premium to its last closing price. Shares of Gateway soared 50.4% to close at $1.82.

Elsewhere, U.S. Steel (X:) will purchase Canada's Stelco for $1.04 billion. U.S. Steel dipped 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $93.01.

Away from stocks, the front-month October crude contract rose 88 cents to close at $71.97 a barrel. Gasoline prices advanced 6 cents to $2.03 a gallon.

Treasury bonds crept higher. The 10-year note added 5/32 in price, yielding 4.59%. The 30-year bond ended up 11/32 in price, reducing the yield to 4.86%.

In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 2.9% overnight, and Japan's Nikkei 225 tacked on 0.3%. Many overseas indices in Europe were closed for a holiday.

Stocks Find No Solace in Fed.......


Tuesday 8/28/2007


Stocks in the U.S. fell hard Tuesday after the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting failed to give investors any firm indication that the central bank is considering lowering interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 280.28 points, or 2.1%, to 13,041.85. The S&P 500 lost 34.43 points, or 2.35%, to 1432.36, and the Nasdaq Composite was weaker by 60.61 points, or 2.37%, at 2500.64.

The major averages were underwater early in the session amid more bad news on the financial and housing sectors, but they went deeper into the red after the 2 p.m. EDT release of the minutes of the Aug. 7 Fed meeting.

During that gathering, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its fed funds target rate at 5.25% for the ninth straight time. The Fed said it remained focused on inflation but it altered its statement to note the recent credit crisis.

In the statement accompanying the rate decision, the central bank noted that "credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing."

The minutes indicated that members of the FOMC judged that risks were on the rise, saying that "conditions in markets for subprime mortgages and related instruments, including segments of the asset-backed commercial paper market, deteriorated sharply toward the end of the period."

The Fed also said that the worsening mortgage situation could lead to a housing slump deeper and more prolonged than it had seemed earlier this year.

"Participants noted that investors had become much more uncertain about the likely future cash flows from subprime and certain other nontraditional mortgages, and thus about the valuation of securities backed by such mortgages," the minutes said.

But the panel also reiterated its inflation concerns. "Readings on core inflation had improved modestly in recent months but did not yet convincingly demonstrate a sustained moderation of inflation pressures, and ... the high level of resource utilization had the potential to sustain inflation pressures," the Fed said.

"Against this backdrop, members judged that the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as expected continued to outweigh other policy concerns," the minutes added.

The meeting came before credit worries significantly worsened, leading the Fed to cut its discount rate -- the interest it charges on loans to banks -- by 50 basis points. Many market participants are hoping in a reduction for the fed funds target, possibly as soon as Sept. 18, when the FOMC next meets.

"This Fed is very different from the Alan Greenspan-era in that they're dealing with a liquidity crisis through the discount window," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "It is this Fed's view that the economy is still OK and that the liquidity problem is restricted to the financial sector. These minutes have taken hopes of a rate cut at the September meeting away.

"The economy is still weakening and will warrant a cut eventually," added Nolte. "The Fed doesn't have tools to deal with this type of problem today, so it's hard to say the way they're dealing with this is the right way, and we won't know until six months to a year from now."

Elsewhere on the economic front, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slid to a reading of 105 in August, as expected, from a revised 111.9 in July.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that the drop in consumer confidence was clearly foreshadowed by steep declines in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and it may not be the end of the process.

"Both the headline and current conditions indexes plunged, almost exactly reversing their July gains," he said. "What the easing in gas prices did, the chaos in the markets undid. We expect a further modest decline in confidence over the next month or so as people see the loss of value in their mutual fund, 401(k) and brokerage statements."

Following by a day a report on existing-home sales, which fell 0.2% as inventories soared 5.1%, more bad news was pressuring the housing sector. The S&P/Case-Schiller Index of home prices showed a 3.2% drop during the second quarter, the biggest decrease since the index began 20 years ago.

Housing stocks D.R. Horton (DHI:) , Lennar (LEN:) , Centex (CTX:) and Pulte Homes (PHM:) all finished down 3% or more.

The Dow has now dropped 338 points over the last two sessions, while the S&P 500 has given back 47 points and the Nasdaq has declined 76 points.

Breadth weakened considerably from the previous session. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.74 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topped advancers by a 7-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.56 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 4 to 1.

More bad news was weighing on the financial sector. The Financial Times said that Barclays (BCS:) may have several hundred million dollars of exposure to troubled debt through links to German lender Saschen LB.

Barclays denied the report, but its shares lost $2.33, or 4.8%, at $46.61.

Elsewhere, Citigroup (C:) , Lehman Brothers (LEH:) and Bear Stearns (BSC:) were all downgraded to neutral from buy by Merrill Lynch. All were lower by 3.5% or more.

Jitters over the economic reports and the Fed outweighed M&A news. Medco Health (MHS:) said it will acquire PolyMedica (PLMD:) for $1.5 billion, a 17% premium to the stock's last closing price. Medco shed 1.2% to $85.11, while PolyMedica jumped 14.1% to close at $51.69.

Wendy's (WEN:) traded higher after word that Triarc (TRY:) , which owns the Arby's restaurant name, and Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund may purchase the restaurant chain. Wendy's gained 70 cents, or 2.2%, to $32.69.

Home Depot (HD:) confirmed that it will take less than it had planned for its supply unit, saying it will sell 87.5% of the division to private equity investors for $8.5 billion. Home Depot will retain a 12.5% stake. Previously, the sale was priced above $10 billion. Shares added 3 cents, or 0.1%, to close at $35.05.

Away from stocks, the front-month October crude contract ended lower by 19 cents to $71.74 a barrel. Gasoline prices were lower by 2 cents at $2.02 a gallon.

Treasury bonds went higher. The 10-year note rose 11/32 in price, yielding 4.53%. The 30-year bond was up 1/32 in price to yield 4.85%.

Asia's markets finished lower overnight. Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased nearly 1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.1%. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 was off 1.9%, and Germany's Xetra Dax was down 0.7%.

Rate-Cut Hopes Ignite Rally.......


Wednesday 8/29/2007


Stocks in the U.S. were solidly higher Wednesday following a two-session selloff, as traders bid up equities amid hopes for a rate reduction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 247.44 points, or 1.9%, to 13,289.29. The S&P 500 added 31.40 points, or 2.19%, to 1463.76, and the Nasdaq was better by 62.52 points, or 2.5%, at 2563.16.

Chipmakers, retailers, computer hardware stocks and precious-metals names were among the leaders of what was a broad-based rally.

The mood improved as investors learned that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had sent a letter to New York Sen. Chuck Schumer saying that the central bank would "act as needed" if the economy appeared to be imperiled by the troubles in the financial markets.

The change in direction comes a day after the minutes from the last Fed meeting failed to convince investors that an ease in interest rates was being considered.

However, the bulls interpreted the Bernanke correspondence as a sign the fed funds target rate could come down. Many market participants are looking for a cut at or before the next Fed meeting Sept. 18.

The minutes indicated that members of the FOMC judged that risks to the credit market and economic growth were on the rise, saying that "conditions in markets for subprime mortgages and related instruments, including segments of the asset-backed commercial paper market, deteriorated sharply toward the end of the period."

However, they also showed that the central bank continues to worry about inflation, which will affect any decision on rates.

Combined with several downgrades in the financial sector, the Fed minutes handed the U.S. averages their worst session in three weeks. The Dow plunged 280.28 points, or 2.1%, to 13,041.85, taking its two-day loss to 330 points.

The S&P 500 declined 34.43 points, or 2.35%, to 1432.36, and the Nasdaq fell 60.61 points, or 2.37%, at 2500.64.

"The letter from Bernanke to Schumer shows that the Fed minutes yesterday were misinterpreted," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Once again, the Fed is saying it will be available if necessary, and the market again had to rethink and refocus."

Breadth strengthened considerably from the previous session. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.58 billion shares changed hands Wednesday, as advancers topped decliners by a 7-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.64 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 3 to 1.

Besides the Fed, strong earnings news also helped buyers move back in. Big Lots (BIG:) beat second-quarter estimates and guided its outlook higher for the year. Big Lots finished higher by $2.62, or 10%, to $28.92.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM:) also topped second-quarter forecasts, and it upped its full-year forecast, as well. The stock jumped $3.37, or 11.4%, to $32.94.

DaimlerChrysler (DAI:) said its second-quarter profit fell to $2.5 billion, or $2.36 a share, from $2.9 billion and $2.80 a share a year earlier. Revenue slipped 3% to $32.2 billion. For the year, the company expects revenue of around $134 billion, roughly the same as 2006.

Shares of the automaker rose after DaimlerChrysler approved a buyback of 10% of its outstanding shares. Daimler gained $3.25, or 3.9%, to $87.59.

Elsewhere, Altria (MO:) rose nearly 1.1% after announcing it will seek to spin off its Philip Morris International division. The company also is raising its dividend. Altria added 79 cents at $69.86.

Away from stocks, oil prices spiked following the Energy Department's latest inventory report. The front-month October crude contract surged $1.78 to close at $73.51 a barrel.

The Energy Department said that gasoline stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels last week. Crude stores, meanwhile, fell by a greater-than-expected 3.5 million barrels, and distillates rose 900,000 barrels.

Treasury bonds turned lower. The 10-year note eased 9/32 in price, pushing the yield to 4.54%. The 30-year bond ended down 19/32 in price to yield 4.88%.

Asian markets stumbled overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 1.7% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gave back 1.5%. European bourses were faring better. London's FTSE 100 gained 0.5%, and Germany's Xetra Dax tacked on 0.1%.

Bernanke, Bush Boost Stocks.......


Friday 8/31/2007


Stocks in the U.S. rallied Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addressed the current subprime mess and President Bush moved to offer federal help to mortgage borrowers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 119.01 points, or 0.9%, to 13,357.74, led by a 3.4% jump in shares of Home Depot (HD:) . The S&P 500 added 16.35 points, or 1.12%, at 1473.99, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 31.06 points, or 1.21%, to 2596.36.

While the major averages finished the week nearly unchanged, the market logged its first winning month since May. The Dow added 1.1% in August, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 2%.

The gains came after a speech from Bernanke on housing and monetary policy in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and remarks from President Bush encouraging the use of Federal Housing Administration insurance.

In his speech, Bush noted that the subprime crisis is relatively modest compared with the entire U.S. economy, but he urged mortgage holders to refinance and count on the FHA if they become delinquent on adjustable-rate loans.

The president, however, emphasized that it is not the government's position to provide a wholesale bailout to all borrowers. He also promised to penalize predatory lenders.

"That's not really the answer to the subprime issue that's out there," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer with Oaktree Asset Management. "Too many people have bought homes that they can't afford. It's hard to protect people from themselves forever. There's a strong reaction to this proposal, but this isn't the answer."

While the president's plan took some of the heat off the Central Bank's chairman, Bernanke's testimony drove home the point that the Fed is still ready and willing to act if needed.

The speech didn't provide any indication of an interest rate cut at the Bank's Sept. 18 meeting, but Bernanke reiterated that the Fed stands ready to "take additional actions as needed to provide liquidity and promote the orderly functioning of markets."

Bernanke also warned that "if current conditions persist in mortgage markets, the demand for homes could weaken further, with possible implications for the broader economy."

Additionally, he said that because of the recent developments in the financial markets, the Fed considers economic data from the past few months to be less useful in gauging economic activity and inflation.

"Consequently, we will pay particularly close attention to the timeliest indicators, as well as information gleaned from our business and banking contacts around the country," he said. "Inevitably, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook will be greater than normal, presenting a challenge to policymakers to manage the risks to their growth and price stability objectives."

Like President Bush, Bernanke also stressed that a widespread bailout won't be coming. "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve -- nor would it be appropriate -- to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions," he said.

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial, said that traders didn't get exactly what they wanted from Bernanke's speech in terms of policy.

"He isn't making any commitments to any move, which is what the market was really looking for," said Mendelsohn. "He did say we could see this spread further into the economy, which was unsettling to the market. Bernanke views this crisis as worrisome, and he basically said the Fed is not sure how big this problem will grow."

Breadth was strong for a second straight session. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.74 billion shares changed hands, as advancers topped decliners by a 4-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.58 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 3 to 1.

Several economic reports were also in the spotlight. The Commerce Department said personal income rose a better-than-expected 0.5% last month, compared with a 0.4% rise in June. The core deflator -- a key Fed inflation gauge -- increased a mere 0.1%, and the year-over-year rate remained at 1.9% for the second straight month.

Elsewhere on the economic docket, the Chicago Purchasing Managers'' index unexpectedly rose to a reading of 53.8 from 53.4, slightly higher than the consensus. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, on the other hand, fell to a worse-than-expected reading of 83.4 in August from 90.4 last month.

U.S. Treasuries pared losses following the economic releases and the speeches from Bush and Bernanke. The 10-year bond was off 4/32 in price, pushing the yield to 4.53%. The 30-year note rebounded as well and was unchanged in price, yielding 4.83%.

After the prior session's close, Dell (DELL:) posted earnings that topped Wall Street's estimates. However, the stock was off 21 cents, or 0.7%, closing at $28.25.

Several credit and mortgage-related names finished higher. Accredited Home Lenders (LEND:) surged 43.4% to $9.05 after it got a revised, but reduced, buyout offer from Lone Star.

Countrywide (CFC:) , Lehman Brothers (LEH:) , and Bear Stearns (BSC:) also rose.

Elsewhere, the October front-month crude contract rose 68 cents to finish at $74.04 a barrel.

Overseas markets were higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 2.1% overnight. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax both ended up 1.5%.

Tech Leads Stocks Higher.......


Tuesday 9/4/2007


Stocks in the U.S. overcame a sluggish open Tuesday and were in rally mode after traders digested the latest round of economic data. The tech sector led the increase.

After opening lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently was up 74 points, or 0.6%, at 13,432. The S&P 500 was adding 15 points, or 1%, at 1485. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was rising 38 points, or 1.5%, to 2635.

Among tech shares, Yahoo! (YHOO:) jumped nearly 7% after Bear Stearns named the Internet portal one of its top picks. Apple (AAPL:) was up 4.1% a day before it is expected to unveil an update to its iPod line of products.

General Motors (GM:) was a bright spot on the Dow after the automaker posted an unexpected 6.1% rise in auto sales last month. Shares of GM, one of the Dow's 30 components, were up 2.5%.

Among its rivals, Ford (F:) said that sales fell 14.4% last month. Chrysler, now only 20%-owned by DaimlerChrysler (DAI:) , reported a 6% decline in sales.

Several reports on the economy were also in the spotlight. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index slipped slightly last month to 52.9 from 53.8 in July, essentially in line with estimates.

"History shows that the ISM tends not to react rapidly to market events," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "The next few months will be key, though, as it will reveal how companies are responding to tighter credit conditions."

Separately, the Commerce Department said that construction spending eased a greater-than-expected 0.4% in July, following a 0.3% decline in June. Economists had anticipated a 0.1% decline.

U.S. Treasuries were slipping lower after the data. Recently, the 10-year note was down 3/32 in price, raising the yield to 4.56%. The 30-year bond was off 3/32 in price, yielding 4.84%.

On Friday, the major averages surged to close out last month after comments from President Bush, who offered federal help to mortgage borrowers, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who reassured the market that the Fed will act if necessary.

The Dow finished the session with a rally of 119.01 points, or 0.9%, to 13,357.74. The S&P 500 added 16.35 points, or 1.12%, at 1473.99, and the Nasdaq rose 31.06 points, or 1.21%, to 2596.36. The market was closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

"We still expect volatility, but with a little more bullish confidence, now that the Fed is firmly behind us," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Bernanke may not have come out and said he was going to cut the fed funds rate, but investors came away feeling that 25 basis points was a lock at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting and that the door was open for something bigger."

Meanwhile, Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that the decline in volume headed into the holiday weekend rendered the last advance suspect.

"We will be watching the early-week market moves to determine whether the rally was merely a snapback after a large decline or the beginning of a new bullish phase," said Nolte. "Unfortunately, nearly every investor is anticipating that the recent market lows will be visited once again prior to another assault on all-time highs."

Little was due in the way of earnings to start the shortened week, but reports from Altera (ALTR:) , National Semiconductor (NSM:) , Campbell Soup (CPB:) and homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV:) are expected later this week.

As for ratings changes, Bear Stearns downgraded Research In Motion (RIMM:) to peer perform from outperform. Still, RIM was tacking on 3 cents to $85.44.

Home Depot (HD:) slid after the home repair retailer detailed results of its share tender offer, saying it would spend $10.7 billion to buy back stock. Shares were losing $1.91, or 5%, to $36.40.

Elsewhere, oil prices were on the rise by $1.02 at $75.06 a barrel.

Overseas markets were mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 0.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 0.1% overnight. In Europe, markets reversed early losses. London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax both rose 1%.

Wall Street Ends In the Red.......


Wednesday 9/5/2007


Stocks in the U.S. pulled back Wednesday as negativity about the housing market and the Federal Reserve's latest economic report put an end to a two-day rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Dow lost 143.39 points, or 1.07%, to 13,305.47, as only three of the average's 30 components finished with gains. General Motors (GM:) , Citigroup (C:) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM:) were among the worst performers.

The S&P 500 was down 17.13 points, or 1.15%, at 1472.29, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 24.29 points, or 0.92%, at 2605.95.

Part of what pinned the market in the red was the 2 p.m. EDT release of the Fed's regional business survey, known as the beige book.

Economic activity continued to expand in most of the nation's 12 districts at a modest or moderate pace in August, the Fed said. Growth slowed, however, in the Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas and San Francisco regions.

The recent problems in the financial markets were emphasized, with the credit crisis having a dampening effect on the housing sector. Still, the report indicated that much of the trouble had been contained, leaving traders concerned that the Fed might not be moved to cut interest rates.

"Most [banks] reported that the recent developments in financial markets had led to tighter lending standards for residential mortgages, which was having a noticeable effect on housing activity, and several noted that the reduction in credit availability added to uncertainty about when the housing market might turn around," the survey read.

"Outside of real estate, reports that the turmoil in financial markets had affected economic activity during the survey period were limited."

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC, said that the beige book "is an example of a situation where good news is bad news.

"Comments from the beige book indicate that outside of housing and real estate, Fed districts did not see much of the way in spillover to the broader economy," he said. "As a result of more positive-than-expected comments, the market continued to sell off on reduced expectations for the next Fed meeting."

While the beige book did show signs of credit-related worry in the Fed's districts, some of the sting was curtailed already. Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech on the recent housing and credit problems, and he said the central bank is taking very seriously the threats to economic growth.

"Economic data bearing on past months or quarters may be less useful than usual for our forecasts of economic activity and inflation," Bernanke said. "We will pay particularly close attention to the timeliest indicators."

Prior to the beige book release, stocks had already been tumbling after the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped 12.2% in July to a reading of 89.9, providing the latest evidence that the slowdown in housing is continuing.

The decline follows a 5% rise in June. Over the last year, the index has fallen 16.1%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that July's swoon in pending home sales offers conclusive proof that June's unexpected leap was a fluke.

"Note that this collapse in pending home sales predates the turmoil in the markets and the subsequent jump in jumbo mortgage rates, even for prime borrowers," Shepherdson said. "Accordingly, we expect the index to drop further over the next few months. This is disastrous."

The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index slid 3.2%. D.R. Horton (DHI:) , Hovnanian (HOV:) , Lennar (LEN:) and Pulte Homes (PHM:) were all down 2.8% or more.

The latest data arrived just two days ahead of the closely watched jobs report. The Labor Department is expected to say at the end of this week that the U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in August, compared to an increase of 92,000 in July.

"Bernanke has already set the stage for an interest rate cut, but the real question will be whether its by 25 basis points or 50," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. Weak economic numbers will probably determine what the Fed does. The core rate of inflation is near their comfort zone, which works in the favor of an interest rate cut."

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its anticipated growth for both the U.S. and Europe, citing the tribulations of the mortgage-securities market. The group is now looking for a 1.9% U.S. expansion, down from its prior outlook of 2.1%. Europe's forecast was lowered to 2.6% growth from 2.7%.

At the same time, the European Central Bank might take action Thursday if it sees the need to calm the money markets.

On Tuesday, investors returned from a long holiday weekend on this side of the Atlantic and put their money to work. Gains in Yahoo! (YHOO:) , Apple (AAPL:) , and other big tech names led the market to the upside.

The Dow ended ahead by 91.12 points, or 0.68%, at 13,448.86. The Dow added 1.6% over the previous two sessions. The S&P 500 advanced 15.43 points, or 1.05%, at 1489.42. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 33.88 points, or 1.3%, to 2630.24 for its fourth straight win.

Volume was greater than Tuesday's session while breadth turned negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, 2.98 billion shares changed hands as decliners topped advancers by an 8-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.96 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 2 to 1.

Treasury securities rallied. The 10-year note rose 19/32 in price, cutting the yield to 4.47%. The 30-year bond added 29/32 in price, yielding 4.77%.

Among equities, toymaker Mattel (MAT:) initiated a third recall of Chinese-made toys due to lead paint. In all, 800,000 toys were included in the current recall, in addition to the millions covered by two previous actions. After spending most of the session in negative territory, Mattel finished with a penny gain at $21.98.

During the session, Apple unveiled a complete refresh to its line of iPod products and cut prices on its heavily hyped iPhone. Shares of Apple had jumped more than 13% over the last week in anticipation of the iPod redesign. Following the announcement, though, shares slid $7.40, or 5.1%, to close at $136.76.

Financial stocks had a tough time after Lehman Brothers downgraded Deutsche Bank (DB:) and Credit Suisse (CS:) to underweight and equal-weight, respectively. Deutsche slid 1.9% to $125.92, and Credit Suisse ended down 1.7% at $66.22.

Merrill Lynch raised its long-term price forecasts for aluminum, nickel and iron ore. The firm also upgraded Alcoa (AA:) and a few other metal stocks to buy. Alcoa tacked on 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.48.

Elsewhere, the October front-month crude contract added 65 cents at $75.73 a barrel.

Overseas markets were mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 1.6% overnight, and both London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax lost 1.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.8%.

Stocks Find Higher Ground.......


Thursday 9/6/2007


Stocks had an up-and-down morning, but they went green at midday and closed higher Thursday as strong monthly retail sales outweighed more bad news out of the housing sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 57.88 points, or 0.44%, at 13,363.35, and the S&P 500 rose 6.26 points, or 0.43%, at 1478.55. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 8.37 points, or 0.32%, to 2614.32.

Helping the major indices was a string of upbeat monthly retail sales spurred by the back-to-school shopping season.

Wal-Mart (WMT:) , the world's biggest retailer, surprised analysts after it said comp sales climbed 3.1% in August, twice as much as expected. The company also said same-store sales should climb 1% to 3% in September. Wal-Mart tacked on 31 cents, or 0.7%, to $42.76.

Rival Target (TGT:) saw same-store sales jump 6.1% last month, also topping estimates, and said September's comp sales would likely be up between 4% and 6%. Target added $1.51, or 2.4%, to close at $63.39.

Among other retail winners, Macy's (M:) said August same-store sales increased 2.4%, and Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF:) monthly comps were up 6%. AnnTaylor's (ANN:) same-store sales rose 2.9%, and Nordstrom (JWN:) had a 6.6% rise in comp sales.

On the losing side, Kohl's (KSS:) said same-store sales slipped 0.6% last month. Sharper Image (SHRP:) saw a 16% comparable-sales decline.

Despite the many stronger-than-expected reports, the S&P Retail Index fell 0.6% for the session. Among other decliners, the Amex Airline Index fell 1.1% and NYSE Financial Sector Index slipped 0.1%

On the winning side, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Sector Index surged 5.7% as the price of gold topped $700 an ounce. Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Utility Sector Index gained 1.2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index rose 0.7%.

The major averages shook off weakness stemming from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which released a report that said 5.1% of the loans in its survey were delinquent in the second quarter and that the number of dwellings entering foreclosure hit a record high. Subprime delinquencies rose to 14.82%, the highest since the second quarter of 2002.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said there is a big difference between the subprime book in the second quarter of 2007 and that of five years ago.

"In the second quarter of 2002, there were 1.19 million subprime loans outstanding; now there are about 5.9 million," he said. "In other words, a 14.82% subprime delinquency rate now is equivalent to a 74% rate in 2002. That's why the problem now is so much worse despite similar headline delinquency rates."

On Wednesday, New York stocks plunged after the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped 12.2% in July to a reading of 89.9, providing the latest evidence that the slowdown in housing is continuing.

The Dow fell 143.39 points, or 1.07%, to 13,305.47. The S&P 500 was down 17.13 points, or 1.15%, at 1472.29, and the Nasdaq was off 24.29 points, or 0.92%, at 2605.95.

In the new session, breadth turned around from Wednesday's weak levels. On the New York Stock Exchange, 2.79 billion shares changed hands Monday, as advancers topped decliners by an 5-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.84 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 8 to 7.

Economic data were also in focus. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims dropped by 19,000 last week to 318,000. The latest data arrived a day before the closely watched jobs report. The government is expected to say that the U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in August, compared with an increase of 92,000 in July.

"Given the level of apprehension, we could take advantage of any weakness," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Gutsy traders should buy the close, hoping stocks rally on either low rates or solid jobs tomorrow."

St. Louis Fed President William Poole offered his thoughts about the health of the U.S. economy and job growth, noting that the labor market is strong and "operating near full employment."

In a separate report, the Labor Department said that second-quarter productivity was revised upward to a 2.6% gain from a preliminary reading of 1.8%, above expectations.

Also on the economic front, the Institute for Supply Management said the August reading for its services index came in at 55.8, unchanged from July and above estimates.

Treasury securities lost ground. The 10-year bond was down 11/32 in price, yielding 4.51%. The 30-year note was off 15/32 in price, yielding 4.80%.

Meanwhile, policymakers overseas made headlines. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left their key interest rates unchanged at 4% and 5.75%, respectively. The ECB noted that monetary policy is still accommodative, but that volatility in the financial markets has led to uncertainty.

Similarly, the Bank of England said that it is too soon to judge the impact of the liquidity crisis on financial markets, but that there are tentative signs that consumer spending is slowing.

Earlier, the ECB injected more than $57 billion into the banking system as a measure to calm liquidity fears. Shortly after the opening bell, the Fed announced it added a total of $31.25 billion to its own system by way of a series of repurchase operations.

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial, said that the rate decision by the ECB and Bank of England should have no bearing on what the Fed will do at its Sept. 18 policy meeting.

"The Fed is in a different position than the ECB. European banks may be holding securities, but they're not the source of the mortgage problem," he said. "This credit problem is more of a problem for the U.S. economy than foreign economies. If the European central banks had cut rates, it would've made an impact. Leaving rates unchanged won't really affect us."

Elsewhere, the People's Bank of China, trying to keep a lid on inflation, raised the reserve requirements for banks for the seventh time in 2007. Now, 12.5% of deposits will have to be held in reserve, up from the prior 12%.

Major overseas markets were generally higher. London's FTSE 100, the Paris'' CAC 40 and Germany's Xetra Dax were all up 0.5%. Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.1%.

Crude oil rose 57 cents to close at $76.30 a barrel after the Energy Department's weekly inventory report showed bigger-than-anticipated declines in gasoline and crude stocks. Also supporting higher prices was more violence in the Middle East, where Syria claims to have fired on Israeli aircraft that crossed its border.

Jobs Data Wallop Wall Street.......


Friday 9/7/2007


Stocks tumbled Friday after a government report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month, raising fears in some quarters of a recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 249.97 points, or 1.87%, to 13,113.38. The S&P 500 fell 25 points, or 1.69%, to 1453.55, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 48.62 points, or 1.86%, to 2565.70.

The U.S. economy gave up 4,000 jobs last month, according to a report from the Labor Department, the first decline in the nonfarm payrolls in four years. The figure was shockingly below economists'' expectations for an addition of 100,000 nonfarm jobs. There was also a net downward revision of 81,000 jobs to the previous two months.

With credit market jitters still swirling, many now expect that the Federal Reserve will cut the fed funds rate at its Sept. 18 policy meeting, having kept the overnight target rate at 5.25% for the last nine meetings.

Over the last several weeks, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have offered clues that the central bank is willing to act if economic growth slows because of liquidity problems.

"I don't see any choice at this point for Ben Bernanke and the Fed," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial. "This is a very horrendous, problematic number, even though it increases the chances of a Fed rate cut.

"This indicates we may already be going into a recession," he continued. "If the Fed doesn't cut rates here, the mess is going to get even worse. It's now a question about how many basis points the Fed will cut."

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said that one number is not a trend, but these data will scare the Fed into believing the worst is yet to come.

" [The Fed] will ease 25 basis points on Sept. 18 but should ease 50," he said. "Remember, this report does not fully reflect the market turmoil."

Meanwhile, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan said there are many similarities between the current market situation and those of years when the stock market crumbled.

"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987," said Greenspan, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"The jobs data are saying the Fed has to cut rates, but Greenspan has come out saying it's not going to make a difference," said Mendelsohn. "There is a commodity play developing, which shows that that side of the market expects a rate cut."

Treasury bonds rallied following the weak labor report. The 10-year rose 1-3/32 in price, cutting the yield to 4.37%. The 30-year note added 1-20/32 in price, yielding 4.70%.

Gold futures rose $5.10 to close at $709.70 an ounce, and silver jumped 22 cents to $12.76 an ounce. The dollar, meanwhile, sank against the world's major currencies.

On Thursday, the major averages finished with modest gains thanks to strong retail same-store sales data. The Dow advanced 57.88 points, or 0.44%, at 13,363.35, and the S&P 500 rose 6.26 points, or 0.43%, at 1478.55. The Nasdaq climbed 8.37 points, or 0.32%, to 2614.32.

For the week, the Dow slid 1.8%, the S&P 500 lost 1.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.2%.

On the New York Stock Exchange 3.26 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topped advancers by a 3-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.90 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 4 to 1.

Markets overseas fell hard, as well. The Paris CAC 40, London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax were down 1.9% or more. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 eased 0.8% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dipped 0.3%.

Elsewhere, the October front-month crude contract was up 42 cents at $76.72 a barrel.

Among equities, Harley-Davidson (HOG:) cut its shipment targets due to weak sales. The motorcycle producer also reduced its earnings expectations for 2007 and 2008 while withdrawing guidance for 2009 altogether. Shares were down $5, or 9.2%, to $49.09.

Following the last close, homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV:) posted a fiscal third-quarter loss of $80.5 million, or $1.27 a share. The loss was worse than expected, according to Thomson First Call. Hovnanian lost 81 cents, or 7.1%, to $10.56.

Fellow builder Beazer Homes (BZH:) dropped 12.9% after word the company had received default notices for certain of its senior notes. The stock was off $1.41 to $9.50.

Angst Reigns on Wall Street.......


Monday 9/10/2007


U.S. stocks were volatile again Monday and closed mixed, as traders weighed cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials against positive news out of the tech sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung in a 160-point range before ending up 14.47 points, or 0.11%, at 13,127.85. The S&P 500 slipped 1.85 points, or 0.13%, to 1451.70, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 6.59 points, or 0.26%, at 2559.11.

"This was typical behavior of a nervous market this is still awaiting more news from the Fed," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "A lot of today was technical movement. We're probably going to have an indecisive market that is held in captivity until we get that Fed decision next week."

Breadth was slightly negative to start the week. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.74 billion shares changed hands Monday, as decliners topped advancers by an 3-to-2 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.78 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 6 to 5.

With little economic data on the docket, traders were focusing on remarks from several Fed bankers. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told the National Association for Business Economics that the recent financial market turmoil will prolong the housing sector adjustment.

"I see significant downward pressure based on recent data indicating further weakening in the housing sector and the tightening of financial markets," said Yellen. "A big issue is whether developments in the relatively small housing sector will spread to the large consumption sector, perhaps through declines in house prices."

If the decline in house prices occurs in the context of rising unemployment, "the risks could be significant," she said.

Over the weekend, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser somewhat lowered expectations for a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 18 as he delivered a speech in Hawaii.

"Disruptions in financial markets can be addressed using the tools available to the Fed without necessarily having to make a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy," he said.

On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak in Germany about recent developments in the global financial system.

Most investors are looking for a reduction of at least 25 basis points in the fed funds target rate when the central bank meets next week.

"Investors will be listening for any indication that the Fed will move and is now focused more on the economy than inflation," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Gross domestic product estimates for the third quarter are likely to be revised down from the current 2.6% consensus, especially in light of the recent data, but we are still a long way from calling this a recession."

During the prior session, the major averages tumbled after a government report showed that the domestic economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August. The Dow slumped 249.97 points, or 1.87%, to 13,113.38, and the S&P 500 fell 25 points, or 1.69%, to 1453.55. The Nasdaq sank 48.62 points, or 1.86%, to 2565.70.

"The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Federal Reserve to front and center in the debate on economic growth," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "While a negative reading on ''job creation'' does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased."

Homebuilders dropped following Yellen's speech. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index sank 2.2%, as D.R. Horton (DHI:) , Lennar (LEN:) , Hovnanian (HOV:) , and Toll Brothers (TOL:) all slid by 2.1% or more.

Several finance names were also lower. Embattled lender Countrywide (CFC:) fell 5.5% after saying it would slash up to 20% of its workforce, or 12,000 jobs. The eliminations will occur "in areas most impacted by lower mortgage market origination volumes," the company said. Countrywide lost $1 to $17.21.

U.S. Treasury securities, meanwhile, rallied. The 10-year bond gained 16/32 in price, cutting the yield to 4.32%. The 30-year note added 30/32, yielding 4.64%.

Tech stocks got a lift from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) , whose shares tacked on 2.6% after the company unveiled its new Barcelona microchip, which it expects to help seize market share from rival Intel (INTC:) . AMD ended the day with a gain of 33 cents at $12.94.

Separately, Intel raised its third-quarter revenue forecast, saying it should have a top line of $9.4 billion to $9.8 billion, up from its prior outlook of $9.0 billion to $9.6 billion. Shares finished down 12 cents, or 0.5%, at $25.35.

Apple (APPL:) was another tech leader, rising 3.8% after the company announced it has sold 1 million iPhones. Last week, shares sold off after Apple reduced the retail price on the 8-gigabyte model by $200. Apple finished up $4.94 at $136.71.

Shares of Palm (PALM:) fell 4% after Lehman Brothers downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight, citing softening demand for the company's Treo phone. The stock eased 62 cents to $14.75.

Outside of tech, Disney (DIS:) was also making news after the company said it would be testing its toys for lead content. The move comes after toymaker Mattel (MAT:) issued three separate recalls for toys made in China that were found to have unsafe levels of lead. Disney dipped 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $33.56.

Elsewhere, the October front-month crude contract added 79 cents to finish at $77.49 a barrel. Gold futures added $2.50 to close at $712.20 an ounce, while silver was off 6 cents at $12.70 an ounce.

Markets overseas were mostly lower. Japan's Nikkei 225 plunged 2.2% overnight. The Paris CAC 40, London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax were off 0.4% or more.

Blue Chips Ignite Rally.......


Tuesday 9/11/2007


Stocks surged ahead Tuesday as traders focused on upbeat news from McDonald's (MCD:) , GM (GM:) and Western Digital (WDC:) after getting little guidance on monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 180.54 points, or 1.38%, to 13,308.39. The S&P 500 finished up 19.79 points, or 1.36%, at 1471.49. The Nasdaq Composite was higher by 38.36 points, or 1.5%, at 2597.47.

GM lead the Dow with a 4.6% gain, aided by news it plans to offer environmentally friendly vehicles that aren't as reliant on gasoline for power.

Fellow Dow component McDonald's climbed 4% after the fast-food restaurant chain reported an 8.1% jump in August same-store sales. The stock added $1.61 to close at $51.76.

Shares of Western Digital were up 4.4% following the data storage company's move to lift its first-quarter guidance above analysts'' forecasts. The shares were higher by 99 cents at $23.40.

ImClone (IMCL:) supported the Nasdaq with an 18.4% surge after a clinical trial showed that the company's Erbitux drug helped lung cancer patients live longer. ImClone's development partner Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:) also ended the day with gains.

"Investors are getting more comfortable with how the consumer is still spending," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "All kinds of consumer-related stocks bounced-back today. That means we might not get anywhere near a recession. There was across-the-board buying today in all sectors. At least for today, traders were feeling a bit better.

Breadth was positive, and volume perked up a bit. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.89 billion shares changed hands, as advancers topped decliners by an 11-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.77 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 2 to 1.

Markets were unfazed by comments from Bernanke, who spoke in Germany about widening global imbalances. His remarks, the last expected ahead of the Sept. 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, had no mention of monetary policy.

With problems in the credit market still looming and with signs the U.S. economy may be slowing, as seen in the negative jobs report on Friday, most investors are looking for a reduction of at least 25 basis points in the fed funds target rate when the central bank meets next week.

Larry Wachtel, senior market analyst with Wachovia Securities, said that with a speech title including the term "Global Markets" that traders shouldn't have expected any mention of U.S. rate policy.

"It's going to be wait-and-see until the actual Fed policy meeting," he said.

Bernanke's comments came after several speeches from other Fed officials.

Over the weekend, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser somewhat lowered expectations for a rate cut. During the last session, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told the National Association for Business Economics that the recent financial market turmoil will prolong the sluggishness in housing.

Fed Board Governor Fred Mishkin and St Louis Fed President William Poole also offered cautious comments late Monday.

The Commerce Department said the international trade deficit shrank to $59.2 billion in July from a revised $59.4 billion in June. Economists had expected the trade gap to come in at $59.0 billion. U.S. exports rose 2.7% in July, the fastest rate in three years.

Treasury bonds were losing ground. The 10-year was down 11/32 in price, yielding 4.36%. The 30-year note was off 5/32, yielding 4.64%.

Elsewhere, the October front-month crude contract rose 74 cents to close at a record $78.23 a barrel following OPEC's decision to raise its production levels by 500,000 barrels a day. That was a smaller increase than some analysts had been expecting.

Gold futures added $8.90 to close at $721.10 an ounce, and silver tacked on 13 cents at $12.83 an ounce.

Among equities, Wal-Mart (WMT:) said it will revise its second-quarter profit lower by $153 million, due to expenses tied to the unloading of stores in Germany. Wal-Mart climbed 1.6% to $42.94.

PepsiCo (PEP:) saw some buying action after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing valuation. Shares ended up $1.41, or 2.1%, to $69.87.

One day after Intel (INTC:) boosted its third-quarter sales outlook, fellow chipmaker Texas Instruments (TXN:) delivered its mid-quarter update. Third-quarter revenue should be $3.56 billion to $3.72 billion, compared with the prior range of $3.49 billion to $3.79 billion.

TI expects a profit from continuing operations between 49 cents and 53 cents, compared with the earlier guidance of 46 cents to 52 cents. Texas Instruments rose 50 cents, or 1.4%, to $35.72.

Markets abroad were mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% overnight. The Paris CAC 40, London's FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax each jumped 1.1% or more.

Standstill on Wall Street.......


Wednesday  9/12/2007


Stocks never strayed far from the unchanged mark Wednesday and ended the session little moved from where they went out last time.

After zigzagging between positive and negative territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 16.74 points, or 0.13%, at 13,291.65. The S&P 500 tacked on 0.07 point to 1471.56, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.40 points, or 0.21%, at 2592.07.

Some of the most interesting developments of the day actually took place away from the stock market. Crude prices set an intraday record in New York, crossing the $80-a-barrel level for the first time ever. The October contract finished at $79.91, up $1.68, and established an all-time high for the second time in as many days.

Bullish weekly inventory data from the Energy Department was behind the move. The report said that crude stocks dropped a greater-than-expected 7.1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks declined 700,000 barrels, whereas distillates increased by 1.8 million barrels.

Elsewhere, the dollar struck its worst point ever against the euro, dropping to $1.3903 from $1.3833 previously. The greenback also eased against the yen.

With no economic data on the calendar, Treasury securities were lower. The 10-year bond was down 8/32 in price, pushing the yield 4.40%. The 30-year note was off 16/32, yielding 4.68%.

Phillip Roth, chief technical market analyst with Miller Tabak, said that "every rally we've had since the August lows had a dead day afterwards with no follow through, and today is a continuation of that pattern.

"The market has been in a struggling advance, however temporary it may be in the recent downtrend," he continued. "There's still a so-called carrot out there leading the market, with a bullish incentive that the expected Fed rate cut is on the way."

Breadth turned negative compared with the previous session. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.94 billion shares changed hands, as decliners topped advancers by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.91 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners nearly 3 to 2.

On Tuesday, stocks rallied, thanks to good news out of General Motors (GM:) , McDonald's (MCD:) and Western Digital (WDC:) .

The Dow rose 180.54 points, or 1.38%, to close at 13,308.39. The S&P 500 finished up 19.79 points, or 1.36%, at 1471.49. The Nasdaq was higher by 38.36 points, or 1.5%, at 2597.47.

Among individual stocks, Texas Instruments (TXN:) offered its midquarter report following the prior close and tightened its third-quarter financial targets, although the forecast was still near Wall Street's estimates. TI closed down 60 cents, or 1.7%, to $35.12.

Meanwhile, subprime and credit fears began to churn again, this time at H&R Block (HRB:) , which said it will eliminate roughly 575 jobs from its Option One Mortgage subprime lending unit. Block is trying to sell the division. Shares eased by 17 cents, or 0.9%, to $19.64.

The recent mortgage crisis was the subject of comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who met with the heads of several lenders, including Citigroup (C:) , Countrywide (CFC:) and Washington Mutual (WM:) .

Paulson noted that the credit and subprime lending mess "will take some time to work its way out," but that the U.S. economy remains strong.

Nucor (NUE:) lost ground after guiding lower for the third quarter. The company cited continued softness in the sheet markets and the increasing costs of some raw materials. Nucor was down 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $53.46.

As for analysts'' actions, UBS upgraded Amgen (AMGN:Nasdaq) to neutral from sell after a Food and Drug Administration panel rejected a proposal that would limit the use of anemia drugs. Amgen was higher by $1.76, or 3.3%, to close at $55.64.

UBS raised its stock price target for Apple (AAPL:) to $182 from $175. Shares finished up $1.36, or 1%, to $136.85.

Overseas markets were mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 eased 0.5% overnight after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, on the other hand, jumped 1.5%.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100, Germany's Xetra Dax, and the CAC 40 in Paris tacked on 0.2% or more.

GM, McDonald's Bolster Stocks.......


Thursday  9/13/2007


Stocks jumped Thursday as positive news out of a trio of Dow components outweighed stubbornly high oil prices and another warning from networker Alcatel-Lucent (ALU:) .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.23 points, or 1%, to 13,424.88, and the S&P 500 was up 12.39 points, or 0.84%, at 1483.95. The Nasdaq Composite lagged behind but was better by 8.99 points, or 0.35%, at 2601.06.

Traders found reasons to buy, thanks in part to three Dow stocks, McDonald's (MCD:) , Microsoft (MSFT:) and GM (GM:) .

McDonald's climbed $3.10, or 6.1%, to close at a record $54.30 on word it expects to return a total of $15 billion to $17 billion to shareholders over the next three years through dividends and share buybacks. The fast-food restaurant chain also said it has bought back $2.4 billion worth of stock this year.

GM soared 10% after Citigroup began coverage of the automaker with a buy rating and a $41 stock price target.

Those positive developments come on the same day that an article in The Wall Street Journal said United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger is willing to agree in principle to a health care trust fund that would help automakers cut $95 billion in retiree costs.

However, the UAW and Detroit are still working out the details, and a significant gulf remains between the sides, the paper said, citing sources. Still, shares of GM added $3.04 to $33.29. Ford (F:) was higher by 42 cents, or 5.6%, to $7.92.

Microsoft was helping to prop up tech shares after announcing it bumped its quarterly dividend higher by a penny to 11 cents a share. Shares climbed 0.8% to $29.16.

Also aiding the mood was Countrywide (CFC:NYSE) , whose shares gained 13.9% to $18.93 after the company arranged for $12 billion in additional secured borrowing through new or existing credit lines.

Breadth turned positive compared the previous session. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.79 billion shares changed hands, as advancers edged decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.66 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers nearly 8 to 7.

Traders were ignoring a few negative headlines. Among them, serial profit-warner Alcatel-Lucent sank 8.8% to close at $9.16 after lowering its third-quarter financial outlook.

One day after crossing the $80-a-barrel threshold intraday, crude oil had a record close about that level for the first time.

"There are more buyers than sellers in commodities because of the inflation play," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist with Windham Financial. "It seems that traders are betting that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut will have inflation running rampant, creating this commodity play. This is putting a floor under oil stocks, and it's supporting the major market."

With the next Fed policy meeting less than a week away, traders are counting on a rate cut in order to help improve liquidity in tightening credit markets. The debate now centers over whether the central bank will cut the overnight rate by 25 or 50 basis points.

"Despite high commodity prices, the market is focused entirely on the Fed lowering rates," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst with Jefferies. "There was a handful of good corporate news traders leaned on today. However, this is all built on the same momentum driven by expectations the Fed will cut rates next Tuesday."

Meanwhile, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in comments made available by CBS that he didn't grasp that subprime lending trends were significant enough to hurt the broader economy until late 2005. He also defended his interest rate-cutting campaign that went from 2001 to 2004.

"While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late," he says in the interview. "I really didn't get it until very late in 2005 and 2006."

Greenspan's comments were made to Lesley Stahl, whose interview with the longtime central-bank chief will appear Sunday on 60 Minutes.

On the economic front, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by a less-than-expected 4,000 last week to 319,000. Economists had predicted claims would rise to 330,000. The report is the first on employment since last Friday's August nonfarm payrolls report, which showed that the U.S. economy lost 4,000 jobs last month.

A survey conducted by the Journal showed that economists anticipate a 36% chance of a recession for the domestic economy, up from 28% last month.

U.S. Treasury prices lost ground. The 10-year bond finished lower by 20/32 in price, yielding 4.49%. The 30-year note was falling 1 2/32, yielding 4.75%.

A day after the dollar hit an all-time low against the euro, it was slightly stronger in trading with most of its competitors, with the exception of the Canadian dollar. The euro was worth $1.3886, down from $1.3907 previously.

Overseas markets were higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 tacked on 0.2% overnight, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.9%. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, Germany's Xetra Dax and the CAC 40 in Paris added 0.8% or more.

Stocks Fall as Fed Looms.......


Monday  9/17/2007


Stocks were sluggish to start the week as the fallout from the credit crisis continued to hit a mortgage lender overseas, hurting sentiment a day before an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39.10 points, or 0.29%, at 13,403.42. The S&P 500 was off 7.60 points, or 0.51%, at 1476.65. The Nasdaq Composite fared the worst, dropping 20.52 points, or 0.79%, to 2581.66.

British lender Northern Rock pressured European bourses, and by extension the U.S., falling 40% on word that its customers withdrew roughly $4 billion from its branches.

On Friday, Northern Rock dropped more than 20% after the company sought emergency funding from the Bank of England. The company also warned that 2007 earnings will come in below current estimates and that profits in 2008 would also be soft.

London's FTSE 100 ended down 1.7%, and the CAC 40 in Paris was off 1.8%. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite rose 2.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was closed for a holiday.

While most expect the Fed to cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes on Tuesday, traders were disturbed by comments out of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan during a televised interview with CBS over the weekend.

Greenspan said in the interview, broadcast Sunday night on 60 Minutes, that the forecast for the U.S. economy is "pretty gloomy" and that "the re-emergence of inflation" is the worst problem facing the Fed.

"The Fed is locked in for a 25-basis-point cut, according to the bond market. However, that hasn't stopped Alan Greenspan from making comments on inflation," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "We should expect the trading to be rather cautious until the FOMC comments are released."

Indeed, breadth was negative and volume was meager to start the week. On the New York Stock Exchange 2.38 billion shares changed hands Monday, as decliners topped advancers by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached 1.41 billion shares, with losers outpacing nearly 2 to 1.

"News out of the U.K. and Greenspan comments set a negative tone for the day, keeping investors cautious," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC . "It was a generally narrow trading range."

Nearly all of the market's subsector indices were lower Monday. Among the worst decliners, the Nasdaq Biotech Index declined 1.5%, the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 1%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index shed 0.6%

Among equities, Microsoft (MSFT:) fell after a European court dismissed an appeal of an antitrust ruling and ordered the tech giant to pay a nearly $700 million fine. Microsoft shed 31 cents, or 1.1%, to $28.72.

General Motors (GM:) was in the spotlight as negotiations continued between the automaker and the United Auto Workers union over a new labor agreement.

The UAW has threatened to have workers strike, and the old contract has now expired, but the union has extended the deadline each hour that negotiations have gone on. Shares of GM climbed $1.01, or 3%, to $35.23.

A number of deals were being struck, though all were small or midsized. Among them, Deutsche Telekom's (DT:) T-Mobile unit is planning to buy the cell-phone company SunCom Wireless (TPC:) for about $1.6 billion, and Paetec Holding (PAET:) will acquire McLeodUSA for $492 million.

On the economic front, the New York Fed said its Empire State index dropped to a reading of 14.7 from 25.1, below economists'' consensus of 18.0. It was the lowest reading for the index since May's 8.0.

U.S. Treasury bonds were little changed. The 10-year note was down 3/32 in price, yielding 4.47%. The 30-year bond rose 3/32, yielding 4.72%.

Crude oil set another intraday record. The October front-month crude oil contract jumped $1.47 to close at $80.57 a barrel. Gold and silver futures were also advancing.

As for analyst moves, Bear Stearns upgraded Ford (F:) to outperform from peer perform, citing the automaker's strong cash flow. JPMorgan lifted Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) to neutral from underweight on the expected strong performance of the company's new Barcelona server chip.

Ford advanced 3.1% to $8.28, and AMD tacked on 1.2% to $12.84.

After the closing bell, Adobe Systems (ADBE:) is posted an adjusted third-quarter profit of 45 cents a share, topping analysts'' 40-cent forecast, according to Thomson First Call.

Tuesday marks the start of a string of key earnings reports from investment banks this week, with Lehman Brothers (LEH:) kicking things off. Best Buy (BBY:) and AutoZone (AZN:) are also due to report.