3SOF

I like FLSH ( NAND memory play), second half play on cellular phone OEM handset supplier for feature phones, PDAs and smart phones. Revs est. at 450mm and eps est. at 1.0 per share. XBOX2 potential supplier, but numbers don't reflect and business from XBOX2, so if they don't land the business no harm. 2004 numbers were: 348mm and .65cts per share - great growth stock.


let me know how the charts look here - told this is the time to own if you believe in TA.

Well, this is the result of TA:

Composite Indicator 
   Trend Spotter TM  Sell
 
Short Term Indicators 
   7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 
   10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 
   20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 
   20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator  Sell
   20 Day Bollinger Bands  Hold 
 
Short Term Indicators Average:   40% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 750714
 
Medium Term Indicators 
   40 Day Commodity Channel Index  Hold 
   50 Day Moving Average vs Price  Sell
   20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator  Sell
   50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy 
 
Medium Term Indicators Average:   25% - Sell
50-Day Average Volume - 829114
 
Long Term Indicators 
   60 Day Commodity Channel Index  Hold 
   100 Day Moving Average vs Price  Sell
   50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 
 
Long Term Indicators Average:   - Hold
100-Day Average Volume - 878945
 
Overall Average:   - Hold
 
Price  Support  Pivot Point  Resistance 

20.08  19.73  20.10  20.47 

HTH (hope this help)

looks good except volume has not signaled yet, you may want to hold off for now
here's a chart

Appears to be at the 200DMA, fundamentally very sound as they have great earnings growth 19.60 seems to be critical on the close.  Elite G any thoughts??

its @ support true but it needs to confirm it...the sayin in T/A speak is "never try to catcha falling knife" and "you'll go broke picking tops and bottoms"...will watch

I agree with eliteG, the stock may rebound, but it is a falling knife. For a rule we shouldn't buy stocks that are going down, longer term it's not a good strategy, although it may work in one trade or another.

Thanks for this pick  :)

I'm going to give everyone on this board a chance to make a lot of money. The stock is M-Systems(FLSH-22.51). They have great IP in the NAND flash memory space. Many may know the 800lb gorilla in the space SNDK - 28.26 -Great company. Why you must buy FLSH after their earnings pre-mkt July 25,2005:

FLSH has a product called Mobile Disk on Chip(MDoC) - This chip is the size of M&Ms and it emulates a hard drive. FLSH has software called TrueFFS that takes the inefficiencies out of raw NAND memory which allows the chip to super reliable.

Why MDoC? MDoC is installed in 50% of the worlds cell phones and pdas that run MSFT o/s. MSFT is a very close partner of FLSH for over 6 years. MDoC will be getting installed in Motorola's new RAZR-Berry phone expecting to be showed at MOT analyst day come tnext Monday. MDoc will also be in over 80 phones by October, up from a total of 20 smart phones and pdas in 2004. 2004 MDoC shipped a total of 63mm in sales. Q4 2005 will be MDoC's first yr in lower priced feature phones that bring much higher volumes to the table. I believe 150mm in MDoC sales will be easily hit with a big hockey stick ramp coming q4. Motorola is expected to ship up to 12 phones using MDoC, Samsung just released the i730 last week with MDoc( they also have numerous models with MDoC), LG uses MDoC( also license our technology from Toshiba), SonyEriccison has our chip in their phones, Nokia does too(they also license from TOshiba too.

New product to hit market q4- MegaSIM card with 256MB of memory. This will allow wireless carriers to charge users for downloads of music. 800mm SIM cards were sold in 2004. Orange already signed them up. Rumor mill has Motorola using the SIM card in itunes phone and others. CEO stated that he signed up three handset OEMs already - no mention yet.

revenue growth for the company

2001 45mm

2002 65mm

2003128mm .03cts

2004 348mm .66cts

2005 est. 450mm $1.0 ..... q1 96mm .16cts q2(est) 97mm .17cts


Company hasn't missed a qtr in over 14 qtrs, conservative management, i'm expecting .18-.19cts on 100mm; Sept - November ..expecting powerful news from the company as MegaSIM comes to market, MDoC gets adopted in high volume phones like the RAZR.

Rumor mill has XMSR using their MDOC chip in their upcoming radio for q4.


After earnings the stock may dip on conservative guidance, but if you want a play on MP3 music in cell phones this is the one.

$5.45 net cash per share, $7.30 book value

Samsung, Toshiba pay royalties, Hynix and Renesas may be next, AMD is a partner, INTC may need to partner up with NAND player.

technically we need to break 23 on big volume......i think we get it July 25th

i own a boat load

To follow up, could someone give me a good read on the chart FLSH for the short, itermediate and long term.

I've spent a lot of hours studying FLSH and see no reason this stock can't hit new highs over the next 12 months. Very volatile stock - great trading vehicle.

Eliteg, my boy Adam tells me that you're the man on this board. Do us a solid, give me a report on FLSH technicals?

SNDK reports tonight - should beat number easily.

street looking for .32 cts

Hey medda,

looked at FLSH(a stock that has made me a lot of money in the past  ;)) and I see a possible double-bottom breakout.  So there may be a nice entry here, if it can cross with volume but with this weak climb there may be some oscillation which if broken would make a safer entry.

I guess SNDK will decide FLSH fate.  When does FLSH report?

July 25th premarket, im an owner myself

Eliteg,

Trading better volume here 375k at 11.10 am - normal volume past 40 trading days 500k

earnings pre mkt monday 25th - conf call 10am - history of this name is that it sells off after conf call on conservative guidance and then takes off. Love it with the motorola analyst day monday where blackberry killer (FLSH inside) will be showed.

Break out $23.30 - huge volume - numbers will be strong, motorola's analyst day will be catalyst for their chip.

Eliteg - give me a chart.


FLSH the next SNDK

Break out run! Good to be a newbie.

keep picking the winners.........the greed will follow......FLSH will hit 27 in the next two weeks on its way to $32.

great post.

Citigroup - the bigest bear on the stock and the space - upgraded flsh from hold to buy and raised his price target from $24 - $33 yesterday.

Volume is 5.7mm in the past two days (avg volume the past 30 days -450k)

52 week high 26.18.....look for a small pullback today and i would be a big buyer here as the news flow could very positve for this NAND flash memory player as the price point for NAND memory closes in on the hard drive mkt. Upside is huuuuuuuuuuuge on FLSH and SNDK.

Medda, you have nailed this on the head.  I'm in there and have been riding the wave.  This is about to break a 52wk high.  Way to go.  Aplaud

short interest is out for july 15th - flsh is up at 1.7mm short +200k - love it.


don't forget stxn .....needs to break 2.46 on volume.

FLSH had a great run last week, but the stock trade only gets better from here. Management will be in NYC for 3 days meeting with the top largest hedge funds and mutual fund companies in the world. 

Stock may come back to fill the gap at 24, regardless, accumulate all the stock you can for a run to $28 - $30 over the next 2 weeks.

Hi

David picked GIGM for their extremely positive fundamentals and low price.

Well, I think we have here the same thing, but  FLSH also undervalued in spite of its
leading position in the market which growing very fast. The main and wrong
reason (according to FLSH's menagement comments) to that is entering of Intel/Micron to NAND market. NAND Memory industry has the capacity problem - not enough supply! Intel beleives NAND will be huge market, until recently they didn't beleived in NAND and their area
was NOR memory.

In Israel FLSH is among best and promisable companies, like TEVA.



Here is results :

http://www.m-sys.com/site/en-US/InvestorRelations/InvestorInfo/FinancialStatements.htm

Enjoy

Best,
Vova

After coming down from th emid 30's to the mid 20's this stock has come half way back, and appears to want to go much higher.  Same space as SNDK which was just added to the S&P.  The company prereleased good numbers and I feel has a lot of good news in the pipeline.  I anticipate this stock going right through annual highs, as in the face of the market cooling it has shown significant strength.

I suggest everyone take a position in FLSH this week. Company just announced their breakthrough technology that will allow 4bits per cell into NAND memory. Currently SNDK is collecting royalties and licensing fees on 2bits per cell/MLC. Company says by 2007 they will see the impact of this technology. Here's what i believe, i've been following the company for 12 yrs:

Company will be at a Bear Stearns meeting this week along with an UBS meeting at the company's headquarters. Next week JP Morgan will have them presenting in front of their clients and lastly, Citigroup will be hosting them at their tech conf in late May.

WR Hambrecht just raised price target from 38 to 46, CIBC 36 -  40, Citi maintained a 47 target.

CEO will place X4 into mass production by 4th qtr 2006 not 2007. eps estimates are way too low. i see 2.10 for 2006, the street is at 1.40. 2007 estimates are at 2.20 i believe they will reach 3.50 - 3.75. This company will create lots of upside.

PS the chart just formed a cup n handle.............47 fast:)

updates:
1)
FLSH: WR Hambrecht Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $46 vs $38; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 12, 2006 09:19 ET
Issuer: M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers LTD (NasdaqNM: FLSH)
Analyst Firm:  WR Hambrecht
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $46.00 (+21.05% from $38.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm notes that M-Systems held its 1st Analyst Day in which the company announced the release of its new technology - x4. While they had somewhat anticipated that the company would release its new technology of 4-bit per cell, yesterday's release was above their expectations in its potential impact on the M-Systems business model. In addition, the firm believes that the x4 could have a profound impact on M-Systems GM as early as 2H07 when the company ships in volume production.

2)

FLSH: Deutsche Bank Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $45 vs $40; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , May 16, 2006 11:01 ET

Issuer: M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers LTD (NasdaqNM: FLSH)

Analyst Firm:  Deutsche Bank
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $45.00 (+12.50% from $40.00)
Analyst Comments: According to the firm the company has announced a breakthrough technology, called x4, at its first-ever analyst day held on May 11. Through x4, M Systems Flash Disk Pioneers plans to achieve better levels of guaranteed capacity from its fab partners at more beneficial pricing terms. They also point out that there is significant upside to the company's gross margins, given the volume production expected in 2007. Better revenue growth is expected to be complemented by even better earnings growth

chart:

I merged all this Board clutter here to give you a prime example of some of the "not so bright" starting of new threads. On 10 different occasions Medda02 started a new topic on this pick. "A topic with just a single post to it. So when Medda02 had another post to do on this pick a new thread was started. As you can see from all this merging, this thread only became just a little over 2 pages in total.
This looks like the pump and dump approach.  :-X  >:D


"FLSH" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.  ;D       
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.  ;)       
Even if the thread has not been posted in in more that 120 days, post to "run an update" the thread is alive again......Why create a new one....   ???
The use of some common sense, you will know that your post are where they are,1 stock , 1 thread, not hard to find  !!   ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$     8)


FLSH was taken over by SNDK.... :D

AP
Chips Snap: SanDisk Up on Msystems Deal
Monday November 20, 3:13 pm ET 
SanDisk Gets Modest Jump After Closing Msystems Deal


NEW YORK (AP) -- Flash memory card maker SanDisk Corp. shares got a boost in Monday trading, after the company closed a $1.5 billion deal to buy Israeli flash memory maker Msystems Flash Disk Pioneers Ltd.

W.R. Hambrecht analyst Daniel Amir, who has a "Buy" rating on the stock, said that although the acquisition is expected to dilute earnings in the first few quarters, the transaction could add another 20 cents per share to his 2007 earnings estimate for SanDisk.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial currently expect the company to report, on average, earnings of $2.77 per share for 2007, while Amir currently expects the company to report earnings of $2.80 per share.

Shares of SanDisk rose 92 cents, or 2 percent, to $48.06 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq.

Shares of German chip maker Infineon Technologies AG, which also makes flash memory products, were down 5 cents at $12.62 on the New York Stock Exchange, while shares of Swiss chip maker STMicroelectronics, which also competes in the space, were up 8 cents at $18.25 on the New York Stock Exchange.