3SOF

Cramer pumped it today but I think it has awsome technology. This got ipo'ed  this week and is around 18. We might see upgrades coming soon and the stock might appreciate a lot. Its in my watch list


DivX is a video codec created by DivX, Inc. (formerly DivXNetworks, Inc.), which has become popular due to its ability to compress lengthy video segments into small sizes while maintaining relatively high visual quality. DivX uses lossy MPEG-4 Part 2 compression, where quality is balanced against file size for utility. It is one of several codecs commonly associated with ripping, where audio and video multimedia are transferred to a hard disk and transcoded.

Profile: DivX, Inc. creates products and services designed for media applications. It offers a video compression-decompression software library, or codec, which is a set of software libraries that plugs into video software applications and allows users to create and play DivX videos through its Web site, DivX.com. The company also provides DivX Player, a software application that plays video content created using various versions of the DivX video technology, as well as allows users to process video downloads, manage video collections, and activate DivX certified devices; DivX Web Player, a software plug-in that interfaces with Web browsers and allows DivX video to be embedded and played within Web pages; and DivX Pro video codec, which offers additional encoding tools.
Further, the company licenses its technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers and certifies their products to ensure the interoperable support of DivX-encoded content. It markets its technologies to a range of semiconductor manufacturers, ODMs, OEMs, and software developers worldwide.
Website: http://www.divxnetworks.com
Market Cap: ~640M

Trading Idea:
** This is not a technical Play **

DIVX recent IPO brings to the market one of the top high growing technologies of recent times, after the MP3 revolution for music, the DivX revolution is still happening, bringing outside computers movies in high definition formats the same way the mp3 is now part of peoples habits.

Most movies fans used to buy a lot of DVDs during the 90s, and since 3/4 years ago they started to download DIVX movies instead, and playing it on their Home Theatre set with new DVD Players that include the DivX certifications such this one (http://www.kiss-technology.com/?p=600en&v=users) (this one is like a top expensive player, but you can buy a DVD/DivX Player under $35 on any store, and they all have something in common: they pay licensing fees to DIVX for their DivX certification stamp). 

DIVX has a deal with Google, and it has a lot of other revenues from other sources, but the main base for 80% of their revenues is Licensing their technologies to hardware manufactures (75% of their revenues are outside America, so this is really a global phenomenon).

Heres an interesting research abou DIVX:
- An In-Depth Look at DivX's IPO (http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/060924/17398_id.html?.v=1)
   
Probably a traditional approach will consider DIVX already overpriced, but taking into consideration the potential of the DivX revolution, and that almost every DVD player around the world will need to be DivX certified in order to sell, the potential I see here is HUGE.

Looking into some competitors, such as the Apple Ipod gadgets that are able to play videos, I see them as new potential DivX costumers (just remembering that I was going to buy a new Ipod and decided not to do that just because it was not DivX compatible ;))

Cramer:
«Unfortunately» Cramer posted a bullish article (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10311391_2.html) about DIVX after the bell, and the stock was up +9% in the after hours. This will increase our entry price on this stock, but at the same time it could work as a first catalyser and bring attentions into DIVX.

Since the stock has no Technical history yet, this trade represents some risk because we can't trust on TA here, the short term fluctuations of DIVX are not easily predictable, but I really believe this could be a long term multi bag play.

Trading Plan:
Buy DIVX during today's session (the stock will probably open with a Gap up above $19.00 / $19.50)

Ramsburg,

Glad you like it. Iam getting in before the analysts.  ;)

Got in a bit late at 20.4, but it was nice to watch the stock race up there after it broke out in the last 15 minutes! :D

Power move ;)

Good pick, applause ;)

Smaller position @ 20.19... let's do this.

Update:
Nice run for DIVX ;)
Yesterday the volume was really high, almost beating the first trading day after the IPO. We're not setting any stop or exit price yet, so the trading plan will just be:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Regards,

Nice pick, Ramsburg!
In at $20.2 as well. Hope to offset the decline in AMD and TRID...

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 12:12:28 AM
Good pick, applause ;)

Applause again, I really like this pick this could go up to $30 easily ;D

Another very good day but the close was a little shaky.  Any trading plan Ramsburg?

in a little late at 21.75 ;)

But were looking hot!

Check out this product "Best ever DivX compatibility with KISS"

Nice feature: Ethernet/Wireless Connection ;)

http://www.kiss-technology.com/?p=dp150408&v=users

Thanks Terliso,

This one is really showing great strength.

Quote from: berloga on September 28, 2006, 08:23:31 AM
Nice pick, Ramsburg!
In at $20.2 as well. Hope to offset the decline in AMD and TRID...

Nice offset ;)

Quote from: dwest718 on September 28, 2006, 06:31:06 PM
Another very good day but the close was a little shaky. Any trading plan Ramsburg?

My plan will be just to hold it now, we can't do much with the TA front, and the base for this pick is just a (very) strong opinion about this technology and market.
I bought a lot of DIVX also for my private portfolio, and part of it (like 60%) will be a long term investment for me, I'll be an official bag holder ;) (different plans for the 3SOF position).
This could be a «wild» ride, and by «wild» I mean both ways because I don't want to be out of this position for the short term, so anybody uncomfortable with this should lock some (or all) of this short term profit and decrease the risk.

Quote from: fous on September 28, 2006, 08:06:26 PM
in a little late at 21.75 ;)

But were looking hot!

I guess Paris Hilton would say the same.. Hot ;)

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 08:30:34 PM
Check out this product "Best ever DivX compatibility with KISS"

Nice feature: Ethernet/Wireless Connection ;)

http://www.kiss-technology.com/?p=dp150408&v=users

Hehehe Terliso... if you like these Kiss players, checkout the one I bought for my office:
http://www.kiss-technology.com/?p=600en&v=users
(http://www.kiss-technology.com/images/icons/600index.jpg)
Cool hein ? ;)

I bought my first Kiss player in 2003, the Kiss DP500, and I was fascinated by its concept, I loved the DivX quality and I started to think about a play on Divx back then... unfortunately DivX was not a public company yet ;)... at that time I thought Kiss would be also a great play, but unfortunately it was not a public company either... a few time ago, Kiss was acquired by Cisco (Linksys Division)...
Powerful concept here... probably the future of home cinema / entertainment (at least in Europe, we feel this DivX revolution on a considerable scale already).

Update:
Another solid session for DIVX, with a little intraday resistance at $24... DIVX is for sure catching some major attentions now ;)
I cant honestly predict the short term here, but I'm quite bullish.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Pretty bad close today  :( ... Saw it at 25.20 and thought about selling half of my position for a quick 25% profit in 3 days but didn't pull the trigger... wondering what to do now.  Not quite an inverted hammer but pretty close to one on decreasing volume.  AH trading looks to be down a bit as well.  Any thoughts?

Sold DIVX yesterday at 24 and bought back today at 21.01, saved a few bucks, but its been a rough 2 days in my other stocks  :'(

Cramer just talked about DIVX and mentioned ringing the register a bit, though he still seemed long term bullish on the stock.  Does seemed to have caused a bit of weakness in the stock after hours, down 3.8%, hopefully it rebounds tomorrow.

Update:
DIVX had quite a correction on the last few sessions, although I think this is kind of normal on a IPO play like this...
Several reasons may be appointed for this correction under a good market environment, Cramer suggested selling after the recent gains and that caused some heavy sellings, but mostly there are a lot of short term players taking out quick profits.
The chart so far reminds me (on a different scale) the first trading days of GOOG back in 2004 (second chart in attach).

Volatility was expected, and I truly believe that DIVX will turn up into a great mid-term play, despite some short term noise.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
No special update for DIVX, apparently some positive reaction on the low $20s price zone, but still too early to analyse any chart pattern.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Pretty good article.

uc.

SeekingAlpha
What DivX Must Do To Succeed
Thursday October 5, 6:44 pm ET

Davis Freeberg submits: DivX may be unable to comment on the success of their IPO right now, but the rules that relate to their quiet period certainly haven't kept the markets from talking about their stock. After sucessfully pricing their IPO well above their initial target range, the stock took off after Jim Cramer gave it a Buy Buy Buy on his Mad Money program. What's interesting about Cramer's comments is that despite the difficulty behind understanding the complex revenue structures and technological issues associated with DivX, his recommendation was enough to convince investors to bid up the stock to a 54% gain from their IPO. Unfortunately, the Mad Money crowd can be a fickle bunch and after seeing a healthy sell off near the close on Friday, DivX took a bath on Monday after investors moved to exit the stock.

One of the problems that we will find with DivX is that all it will take is a little bit of interest or lack of interest and the stock can really move. While the market cap currently stands at $745 million, the actually number of shares that are floating in the market is really closer to about $200 million. This means that if good news comes out you can expect that the stock will surge, but with a little bit of pessimism you'll see the stock come crashing down. This makes the company ideal for big money hedge funds that can profit from the volatility, but individual investors need to think twice about their comfort with volatility before considering a company like DivX. Because of the small float, the most important piece of advice that Cramer gave his audience was to make sure to use limit orders with this stock. Limit orders don't ensure that you will end up getting stock, but they do ensure the price that you are willing to pay for the company. This is important with thinly traded stocks like DivX because if demand exceeds supply you will find that the stock gaps up significantly as it takes much higher prices to bring new sellers to the market.

Of course using a limit order doesn't answer the most important question of all and that is what should DivX be worth. This is a question that even the experts can never agree upon and to make things even more complicated, in the case of DivX, there doesn't appear to be any Wall St. analysts that have initiated coverage on the stock.

Part of what makes DivX such a tough company to value is that standard PE calculations aren't very helpful. In fact, assuming that they stayed in just cash for the next year, the interest payments from their IPO proceeds alone would be enough to boost DivX's earnings by nearly 33%. This would normally be great growth for a company, but investors shouldn't be content with just clipping the interest on the IPO proceeds. If DivX was a mature company, a PE ratio would be more helpful, but given their ambitions and their stated plans to use the IPO proceeds for research and acquisitions, you can't count on money market yields to turn this small cap stock into a solid mid cap play. Instead the issue that investors should be asking themselves is what DivX plans on doing with their $145 million in cash and how will this impact the bottom line for the stock. For as cool as their technology is and as much buzz as they may end up getting, DivX's will ultimately need to continue to produce solid earnings and impressive growth for investors to justify paying a premium for the company.

In looking at the company, I believe that DivX has a couple of fundamental weaknesses that they could use their cash to shore up. Most importantly, the company has a high revenue concentration in licensing deals with consumer electronic companies. These deals are fantastic for DivX because they produce high gross margin sales because most of the costs associated with these arrangements have already been paid for with the development of their codec. Unfortunately for investors though, many of these deals are only 1 - 2 years in nature and it puts DivX in a tough position of having to constantly be renegotiating these arrangements in an industry that seems to undergo dramatic shifts on a week by week basis. If DivX can continue to gain in it's popularity, these deals shouldn't be at risk, but if enough people abandon DivX and start using iTunes, Amazon and other VOD solutions, then this could put DivX's licensing deals at serious risk, especially if the CES companies begin to ask themselves whether or not consumers really want the ability to play DivX files on their DVD players.

The key for DivX to maintain their relevance with the consumer electronic firms will be their ability to convince consumers to continue to download DivX files and to demand access to burn these files for play on their DVD players. Right now most DivX files are traded illegally on the P2P networks, but as DivX continues to move legitimate, it will become increasingly important for them to strike partnership deals and for them to demonstrate that there is clear consumer demand for their product.

DivX has clearly recognized this risk to their business model and have spent a lot of energy on developing their Stage 6 internet property. Stage 6 is DivX's own solution to video on demand. Consumers can go to their website and can stream content for free or for a small fee they are allowed to download films and then burn them to play in a DivX certified DVD player. In an effort to help encourage the adoption of DivX technology, DivX has created revenue sharing arrangements for those who upload their independent films to the site. After paying some minimum hosting costs, DivX shares revenue with independent content owners whenever they sell a DivX film on stage 6. The breakdown of the distribution arrangement is 65% to DivX and 35% to the content owners. While I like this aspect of their business plan, I remain unconvinced that stage 6 will be the video on demand powerhouse that DivX hopes it will be.

Consumers have already adopted YouTube and MySpace and given the online competitive environment for video sharing properties, DivX faces an uphill battle in getting consumers to adopt their video sharing site. Without significant mainstream content to sell to customers, DivX will face an intense battle in trying the do it alone business model when it comes to content sales and I think that their focus on stage 6 is a huge distraction from higher gross margin opportunities.

If DivX uses their $145 million in cash to go out and purchase content for the site, it could give web users a more compelling reason to visit stage 6, but it would also crush the gross margins that they are able to achieve by moving the business away from licensing and software revenues and towards content distribution. While it may help to firm up their CES royalty arrangements, there are no guarantees that access to content will even make stage 6 popular with consumers and I would argue that the company should be directing their efforts to better opportunities.

If DivX instead uses their $145 million in cash in order to pursue licensing arrangements with other companies, then DivX could be a much more attractive candidate from an investment standpoint. These relationships could be with the cell phone providers looking to break into VOD or they could be existing partners of the studios who want to make use of DivX software.

As anyone who has tried to negotiate with Hollywood knows getting access to content deals is not an easy process. The studios love to enter into exclusive arrangements and have a clear interest in postpoining the sucess of VOD in lieu of the higher licensing fees they can get from DVD revenues. If DivX chooses the go it alone model and tries to negotiate directly with the studios, then it could be a tough road ahead for them, especially for an industry that is distrusting of technology to begin with.

Fortunately for DivX though, the one ace they hold up their sleeve is the quality of their video codec. Studios may be reluctant to license their content directly to DivX, but when it comes to partners that are already working with the studios, there is a clear economic benefit to the VOD providers to license DivX's technology. If Amazon is having to pay substantial bandwidth costs because the .wma file they using is twice the size of a DivX file, then by giving DivX a high margin cut of their proceeds, they could see substantial savings on their bandwidth costs. No one wants to pay a middleman to distribute video, but on the other hand, if it's cheaper then paying the telecoms hosting costs, then there is a real incentive for people to partner with DivX and to use their technology to save money.

If DivX pours their money and effort into expanding these relationships, they very well could justify their current valuation, but if DivX continues to focus on their stage 6 investment, then this will undoubtably eat into their gross margins and should cause investors to think twice before paying such a large premium for their stock. At a market cap of $750 million, DivX is by no means cheap, but on the other hand, with $145 million in cash, very little debt and an impressive income statement, DivX could be positioned to tap into a multi billion dollar industry, if they can effectively leverage their technology

DivX may look expensive at a market cap of $750 million, but online video is hot right now and it's clear that investors are willing to pay a premium to gain exposure to the industry. With Akamai trading at a premium of nearly 8 times their book value, DivX would need to hit over $34.50 per share before it achieved a similar valuation to Akamai. This doesn't necessarily mean that DivX deserves to trade at such a premium, nor does it mean that Akamai deserves to trade at 8 times book value, but it does mean that DivX could still go up quite a bit before their bull run is over.

If DivX fails to capitalize on the expectations surrounding their business, it will be a scary ride for investors, but if you believe that their technology is going to lead the digital revolution, then it may be worth paying a premium for that future growth.

I think the purchase of YouTube.com by Google for 1.6 Billion dollars is helping DIVX today, up over 8% currently  :D

Quote from: tokyopua on October 10, 2006, 11:00:32 AM
I think the purchase of YouTube.com by Google for 1.6 Billion dollars is helping DIVX today, up over 8% currently  :D

Yes, I guess that if Google buys Youtube for $1.65B, that means that DIVX current market cap of $740M is cheap ;) ... not that we can compare DivX and YouTube profiles, since DivX has real revenues and a solid bussiness model, but it is boosting up the online video / related sector. ;)

regards,

Ive been downloading a hefty load of divx movies latley,  watched "inside  man" last night. Thats a good one ;)

i need to get me one of those kiss players  >:D

I have not seen a KISS PLAYERS here in U.S ;)

Quote from: fous on October 10, 2006, 03:56:52 PM
Ive been downloading a hefty load of divx movies latley,  watched "inside  man" last night. Thats a good one ;)

i need to get me one of those kiss players  >:D

Quote from: Terliso on October 10, 2006, 10:29:35 PM
I have not seen a KISS PLAYERS here in U.S ;)

I didn't knew KISS wasn't available on the US ;)

They are unavailable on Amazon:
http://amazon.com/s/ref=sr_nr_p_4_3/102-2211940-1376143?ie=UTF8&keywords=divx&rh=n%3A172282%2Ck%3Adivx%2Cp%5F4%3AKiSS%20Technology&page=1

I found it on ebay, but shipping from Europe:
http://cgi.ebay.com/KISS-DP-600-High-Definition-Media-Player_W0QQitemZ140040149605QQihZ004QQcategoryZ29785QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

But remember, KISS is like the «Ferrari» of DivX players ;) You don't need a KISS to have DivX compatibility.

You can easily buy a cheap Philips like this one with DivX certificate:
http://www.amazon.com/Philips-DVP5140-Multiformat-Windows-Support/dp/B000F2KUK8/sr=1-1/qid=1160552000/ref=pd_bbs_1/102-2211940-1376143?ie=UTF8&s=electronics

And there are lots of other cheap DIVX players out there, a friend of mine bought a strange brand Yamada, for $35 few time ago ;)

Update:
Great session for DIVX ;), The news from Google buying Youtube had a good effect on this sector, in my opinion making DIVX look cheap after this $1.65B deal.
But this news is not much relevant for DIVX, it just shows that the Online Video sector is very hot right now, and shows the willing of big companies to make acquisitions on the sector ;)

We are not planning to sell DIVX for the short term, despite any stock volatility right now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Buffalo tech makes this HD media player very similar to the kiss tech one ;)

runs for around$250

http://www.buffalotech.com/products/product-detail.php?productid=96

Visteon Brings Popular Digital Media Format to the Streets

October 12, 2006 13:20:00 (ET)


VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP, Mich., Oct 12, 2006 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Visteon Corporation (VC, Trade) and DivX, Inc. (DIVX, Trade) today announced that the Rear Seat Entertainment System (RSE), which will be available as an option on the 2007 Volvo XC90 sport utility vehicle, is DivX Certified. The Visteon product is the first DVD player factory-installed by an automaker to carry DivX certification, which assures consumers it will play all DivX videos correctly.

"Visteon continues to bring the latest innovations in mobile electronics to the automotive market," said Steve Meszaros, vice president of Visteon's electronics product group. "DivX is an increasingly popular technology for the on-the-go digital media lifestyle, and we're excited to be the first to bring DivX video playback capability to the original-equipment automotive environment."

As a DivX Certified device, Visteon's DVD player supports high quality playback of all versions of DivX video, purchased or rented DivX movies, and all the content available from the DivX Stage6 video community site. Visteon's system features two seven-inch headrest-mounted color monitors, a DVD player and two infrared wireless headsets for a complete in-vehicle rear-seat entertainment experience.

"The Visteon player is a powerful and elegant device that will let Volvo passengers enjoy their entire library of video content wherever they are," said Jim Geison, senior vice president of worldwide sales at DivX, Inc. "By achieving DivX Certification for its player, Visteon is providing real value for the user by ensuring compatibility with one of the most popular and widely used digital media formats on the market."

DivX Certified products enable consumers to create, play, and share high- quality video content across a range of devices and platforms. Products that bear the DivX Certified logo have undergone rigorous testing to ensure interoperability and visual quality. More than 46 million DivX Certified devices have been shipped worldwide. To learn more about the DivX Certification program for consumer electronics devices, visit http://www.divx.com/certification .

Visteon provides advanced in-vehicle entertainment, driver information and wireless connectivity products globally. Its electronic product lines include audio systems, driver information systems and infotainment -- information, entertainment and multimedia.

Visteon Corporation is a leading global automotive supplier that designs, engineers and manufactures innovative climate, interior, electronic and lighting products for vehicle manufacturers, and also provides a range of products and services to aftermarket customers. With corporate offices in Van Buren Township, Mich. (U.S.); Shanghai, China; and Kerpen, Germany; the company has more than 170 facilities in 24 countries and employs approximately 49,000 people.

About DivX

DivX creates products and services designed to improve the experience of media. Our first product offering was a video compression-decompression software library, or codec, which has been actively sought out and downloaded over 180 million times in the last four years, including over 50 million times during the last twelve months. We have since built on the success of our codec with other consumer software, including the DivX Player application. We distribute this software from our website, http://DivX.com , which was visited on average by over five million unique visitors per month during the second quarter of 2006. We also license our technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers and certify their products to ensure the interoperable support of DivX-encoded content. Over 46 million DivX Certified hardware devices have been shipped worldwide, including over 10 million devices reported to us by our customers during the second quarter of 2006. In addition to technology licensing to consumer hardware device manufacturers, we currently generate revenue from software licensing, advertising and content distribution.

Visteon Brings Popular Digital Media Format to the Streets

October 12, 2006 13:20:00 (ET)


VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP, Mich., Oct 12, 2006 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Visteon Corporation (VC, Trade) and DivX, Inc. (DIVX, Trade) today announced that the Rear Seat Entertainment System (RSE), which will be available as an option on the 2007 Volvo XC90 sport utility vehicle, is DivX Certified. The Visteon product is the first DVD player factory-installed by an automaker to carry DivX certification, which assures consumers it will play all DivX videos correctly.

"Visteon continues to bring the latest innovations in mobile electronics to the automotive market," said Steve Meszaros, vice president of Visteon's electronics product group. "DivX is an increasingly popular technology for the on-the-go digital media lifestyle, and we're excited to be the first to bring DivX video playback capability to the original-equipment automotive environment."

As a DivX Certified device, Visteon's DVD player supports high quality playback of all versions of DivX video, purchased or rented DivX movies, and all the content available from the DivX Stage6 video community site. Visteon's system features two seven-inch headrest-mounted color monitors, a DVD player and two infrared wireless headsets for a complete in-vehicle rear-seat entertainment experience.

"The Visteon player is a powerful and elegant device that will let Volvo passengers enjoy their entire library of video content wherever they are," said Jim Geison, senior vice president of worldwide sales at DivX, Inc. "By achieving DivX Certification for its player, Visteon is providing real value for the user by ensuring compatibility with one of the most popular and widely used digital media formats on the market."

DivX Certified products enable consumers to create, play, and share high- quality video content across a range of devices and platforms. Products that bear the DivX Certified logo have undergone rigorous testing to ensure interoperability and visual quality. More than 46 million DivX Certified devices have been shipped worldwide. To learn more about the DivX Certification program for consumer electronics devices, visit http://www.divx.com/certification .

Visteon provides advanced in-vehicle entertainment, driver information and wireless connectivity products globally. Its electronic product lines include audio systems, driver information systems and infotainment -- information, entertainment and multimedia.

Visteon Corporation is a leading global automotive supplier that designs, engineers and manufactures innovative climate, interior, electronic and lighting products for vehicle manufacturers, and also provides a range of products and services to aftermarket customers. With corporate offices in Van Buren Township, Mich. (U.S.); Shanghai, China; and Kerpen, Germany; the company has more than 170 facilities in 24 countries and employs approximately 49,000 people.

About DivX

DivX creates products and services designed to improve the experience of media. Our first product offering was a video compression-decompression software library, or codec, which has been actively sought out and downloaded over 180 million times in the last four years, including over 50 million times during the last twelve months. We have since built on the success of our codec with other consumer software, including the DivX Player application. We distribute this software from our website, http://DivX.com , which was visited on average by over five million unique visitors per month during the second quarter of 2006. We also license our technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers and certify their products to ensure the interoperable support of DivX-encoded content. Over 46 million DivX Certified hardware devices have been shipped worldwide, including over 10 million devices reported to us by our customers during the second quarter of 2006. In addition to technology licensing to consumer hardware device manufacturers, we currently generate revenue from software licensing, advertising and content distribution.

Thanks for the inputs ;)

Update:
Several interesting news are not only showing that the DivX certification has a lot of demand, but are also showing to the public the real potential of the DivX concept:
Cars: Visteon Brings Popular Digital Media Format to the Streets (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061012/deth016.html?.v=73)
Processors:  RMI's Alchemy(TM) Au1200 Mobile Processor Receives DivX Portable Certification (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061010/20061010005930.html?.v=1)
And obviously the DVD Players: Panasonic Latin America Introduces New DivX Certified DVD Video Player (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061009/20061009005208.html?.v=1)


Not only the DVD players are demanding a DivX certification now, Computer processors, and now Cars ;) ... Whats next ?  ;)
I'm not sure, and I maybe crazy about it... But like I said before, I didn't buy the new Apple iPod JUST because it was not compatible with DivX... I may be an isolated case, but I'm a heavy consumer on electronic gadgets since I can remember, and I'm really not going to buy any iPod until I see a «DivX certified» stamp on it ;) I suggest all our fellow traders to follow my example and in a near future we could watch something like this: ;)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/stockcharts/divx_certified.gif)
(this would be really cool for DIVX share prices uh?)  >:D >:D >:D >:D

Also, I've been lurking around the http://stage6.divx.com/ , still in beta version, I've installed the plugins and watch some movies there. I can see the potential, you don't have tons of movies like you have on other video websites, but youtube, metacafe, google video, etc are weak on video quality, and you can see really a great difference in the DivX video quality there.
(You have to install the plugin and restart your browser if it's your first time on Stage6 while watching the movie... it's still a beta version)

Let's compare video qualities in Full Screen:

For example, the movie Loose Change:
- On Stage6: Loose Change on Stage6 (http://stage6.divx.com/Louder_Than_Words/show_video/1005782) 
- On Google Video: Loose Change on Google Video (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7866929448192753501&q=loose+change&hl=en) 
- On Youtube: Loose Change on Youtube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGEb40o17yE)
Note: Put the video in Full Screen in order to really watch the quality difference.

Stage6 is still a small website with a small community, but the future of internet video must be something at least with THIS (http://stage6.divx.com/ASTRONOMY/show_video/1019833) quality right ? ;)

Now, about the recent price development:
DIVX had another interesting session, approaching its highs after the recent correction... We are holding this position, and expecting new highs at anytime soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

DivX, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter 2006 Results
Tuesday October 17, 1:18 pm ET


SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) today announced that it will issue its earnings release for the third quarter 2006 after the market close on Monday, October 30, 2006. DivX will host a conference call to discuss the results at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time on the same day.

Update:
No special developments here, DIVX is holding quite well near the highs, $24 looks like a first resistance taking in consideration the stock wasn't able to close above that value yet. We could draw some kind of ascending triangle pattern, but that would be just playing with the charts, since we don't have enough data to perform a solid TA here.
We'll keep holding it with no special plan yet.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Do you ever feel there is something others know that you don't.  ;)

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on October 20, 2006, 03:52:16 PM
Do you ever feel there is something others know that you don't.  ;)

uc.

hhehehe.... what do you mean ? dont you know ?
I know... ;)  >:D

Bad close but still a pretty solid day... premarket Monday could tell a story.  Not a great way to start the weekend but I'll take the gains today.  :-\

I was hoping it to knockout that 25.21 today. But otherwise its not that bad of a close.
We might see some good action next week.  >:D

RADAR IT!!! Earnings Oct 30.

Update:
I hate to draw these triangles on charts like DIVX, since I don't expect to do any TA on this chart yet... but we can see it there any way ;) Especially the ascending support, with precise tests on the trend line... Friday's close was the highest closing price since the IPO, not the historical high price, but a real nice candle ;)
Looking to the intraday action we can clearly see a big volume increase during that push on the last hour, as if some something important was happening... but with no news at all ;) We like that, because we know about the potential on this play ;)

What could be going on here? Let's speculate ;)... maybe Apple is buying DivX stamps for their new iPod? Or Google decided to give away another few Billion dollars and went shopping again? Hum... Perhaps Microsoft wants spend some money and buy some real good video technology?  Nah... probably it was only market noise on a quite Friday afternoon with a couple of «big guys» buying a cool ticker that was quickly running on the tape ;)

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Quote from: dwest718 on October 20, 2006, 04:03:16 PM
Bad close but still a pretty solid day... premarket Monday could tell a story.  Not a great way to start the weekend but I'll take the gains today.  :-\

Hey Dwest, I'll take bad closes like that any day of the week thanks  ;)

DIVX is on my shopping list, I sold out a little while back around $23 or so. Its shaping up to break  new highs now.

Good Trading

Well I also said premarket would tell a story and premarket was up 3-4%.  Check out the 2nd part of that quote there  ;D ;D.  A little bit of weakness turned into a nice day today so far... hopefully it stays up there and doesn't hammer on us.  Let's go DIVX  ;D

another 52week high  ;)

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 01:33:15 PM

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 12:12:28 AM
Good pick, applause ;)

Applause again, I really like this pick this could go up to $30 easily ;D

looks like we might see 30bucks..  Terliso.   ;)

Update:
DIVX chart is still too «young» for us to perform some solid TA, but taking in consideration that bla, bla, bla ... Ok... Let's just play with the chart  ;)

We can draw a short term ascending support line with 5 surgical tests, and we can consider the $24 area as the main resistance level for the first 4 weeks of DIVX history, this brings us a potential ascending triangle with breakout last Friday. This triangular pattern has a target of $30.75 IN PLAY for the time frame of the next 4 weeks. $24 should give us a nice support level in case of a throwback and retest to the breakout level.

Cramer has been also playing with DIVX, first recommending it on the same day we picked this position, than suggesting profit taking and now this take on RealMoney Radio during yesterday's session:
Cramer: «He told another caller he believes that DivX, which was recently trading at $25.29, will make it to $30. However, because the caller had seen a four-point profit, Cramer recommended taking a little off the table and allowing the rest to run.»
This projection from Cramer makes sense with our pseudo-technical projection, although we are not thinking about exiting this position soon.

DIVX should probably consolidate and test the $24 area again before it goes higher, we'll just keep holding it.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
News:
- Photobucket Adds DivX Media Format to Let Users Share and Publish High-Quality Video (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061025/20061025005124.html?.v=1)

DIVX had a normal correctional session after the recent 3 sessions rally, $24 is now a support and I believe DIVX will hold above that mark.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

What about earnings on Monday?  Do you think Divx will be safe to hold through an earnings announcement?  Just a bit worried about getting burned on a weak first report.  I doubt guidance will be bad though so it will just depend on what people are expecting this quarter.

Quote from: dwest718 on October 26, 2006, 03:19:59 AM
What about earnings on Monday?  Do you think Divx will be safe to hold through an earnings announcement?  Just a bit worried about getting burned on a weak first report.  I doubt guidance will be bad though so it will just depend on what people are expecting this quarter.

Hi Dwest,
Earnings on Monday will give some extra volatility to this already volatile stock... I'm not sure what estimations are on the street, but to be honest, I don't believe current price developments are being drawn for that event... I expect to see DIVX trading near $24 if something goes bad with the earnings or with some more people selling ahead of the earnings, but I'm accepting that volatility risk and holding it.
We already accepted a major fluctuation a few weeks ago, with a correction from $25 to $20, I don't expect anything like that now, but I'm looking to sell DIVX never for less that the $30's++ (maybe more).

Update:
Nothing new to comment about it, earnings will be posted after the close next Monday, we may see some selling or profit taking meanwhile, but I expect $24 to work as a good support area. We are holding DIVX through the earnings announcement.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX
Note: Anyone not comfortable with holding this position through earnings should exit this position before Monday's close.

Best regards,

Results released and the stock nose dived after market  ??? 
When will I learn not to hold on through earnings..   :'(
DivX, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results
Monday October 30, 4:05 pm ET

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) today announced results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2006.
In the third quarter of 2006, consolidated revenue was $15.4 million, an increase of 83 percent from the third quarter of 2005. Net income in the third quarter of 2006 was $3.1 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, compared to net income of $763,000, or $0.02 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2005. Stock-based compensation charges for the third quarter totaled $526,000 compared to $58,000 for the same quarter a year ago.

Revenue for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2006 was $42.7 million, or 90 percent more than the comparable 2005 period. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 was $9.0 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $87,000, or $0.00 per diluted share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. Stock-based compensation charges for the first nine months of 2006 totaled $1,455,000 compared to $286,000 for the same period a year ago.

"We are very pleased to enter the public markets with a strong third quarter," said Jordan Greenhall, CEO and co-founder of DivX, Inc. "DivX continues to change the way that people experience media. Our success is shown by our expansion into new devices, partnerships and geographies, while our existing partners continue to grow their use of DivX technology. With more than 180 million downloads and over 50 million DivX Certified devices shipped worldwide, we believe that we are at the forefront of an exciting market opportunity."

"We closed the quarter with a strong financial foundation from which to execute our strategy. While our quarterly delivery of revenue and income was solid, we were particularly pleased by the generation of over $3.5 million in cash from operations in the quarter. Including the proceeds from our IPO, we closed the quarter with approximately $147 million in cash and equivalents," said John Tanner, CFO of DivX, Inc. "We intend to use these most recent improvements in our already strong financial position to continue to drive profitable, rapid revenue growth by investing in new technologies and emerging market opportunities, in addition to building out our product distribution capabilities."

On September 21, 2006, the registration statement relating to the initial public offering of DivX common stock was declared effective. The registration statement covered 9,100,000 shares of common stock at $16.00 per share, raising proceeds to the Company, before expenses, of approximately $111 million. As part of the offering, 7,461,538 shares were offered by DivX and 1,638,462 shares were offered by certain stockholders. In addition, concurrent with the DivX initial public offering, the underwriters exercised their over-allotment option in full, purchasing an additional 1,365,000 shares of common stock from certain selling stockholders at $16 per share

Update:
- Earnings: DivX, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061030/20061030006033.html?.v=1)
- (http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/talert.gif)- [audio] DivX, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2006 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/6/74006.html)

DIVX Earnings were good...  Although the expectations might have been too high and therefore the after hours was so bad... DIVX was down to $21 in the AH, closing at $22.55 (-11% below the close of $25.40).

The stock will open with a gap down; I believe this is just a temporary set back, caused by short term speculators on a «sell the news» typical move. So I'm expecting DIVX to quickly jump back up in the next days.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Ramsburg, for those of us new to the portfolio; would'nt this be a good entry point for a position? At or near the open?

                       TIA, mitch

Sold my NTRZ   ;)  Nice pick Ramsburg!   >:D.............picked up some more DIVX at 22.4  Hopefully I made the right move.  I like this company.  Good luck all!! ;D

Thai

Quote from: anvilring on October 31, 2006, 09:21:35 AM
Ramsburg, for those of us new to the portfolio; would'nt this be a good entry point for a position? At or near the open?

                       TIA, mitch

Hi Mitch,

Yes, I think buying at these levels is a good entry.

Remembering Leaira saying that on principle she never holds through earnings I was wondering if I should have sold DIVX at the open yesterday, and perhaps bought again at the open today. Then I looked at the first five stocks in a list of stocks for which the earnings report was scheduled after market close on October 30. This is the result:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27459;image)

On average, it does not seem to make any difference whether one holds through earnings or not. There goes my dream of making easy money by selling at the open before the earnings report, then buying to cover the following day!

Hi Maestro...

About the earnings, I guess «In doubt stay out» would be a good rule...
The thing about this case, is that DIVX upside potential (in my opinion) is huge, so «in doubt stay in»... But of course, this decision was not the best as we can see now...  :-\

regards,

A print below 22.05 will be a DOUBLE stop buster, and also will be a break of a H&S Top if DIVX goes up and fills this morning's gap, putting in a Right Shoulder, then breaks below the 22.05 neckline.

Pattern Review:

Pattern #1:  In early October, DIVX put in a "W" Bottom.   When the middle of the "W" was taken out to the upsdie, that was Bullish.

Stop: Below 20.18, below the low of the "W"

Pattern #2:  DIVX  rallied to 24.75, then went into a Symmetrical Triangle, which was a Bullish Continuation Pattern when it broke out to the upside.

Notice that Data Point #5 was the third hit to the top of the pattern, validating it as resistance.  It's usually significant when a validated trendline gets taken out.  It was.  DIVX rallied very quickly to the 26.74 high.

Stop: Raise the trading stop to below  22.05, the low of the Symmetrical Triangle

Pattern #3.  After the 26.74, DiVX went into a Bull Flag/Bull Channel, characterized by "lower highs, and lower lows."  It's a Bullish Continuation pattern unless it gets broken to the downside .  

The Bull Flag was violated intraday, but looked fine at yesterday's close.  This morning...

Oops!  "Buy the rumor...sell the news."

Where is the trading stop?

Below 22.05, the low of the Symmetrical Triangle.

What was this morning's low?

22.05.

DIVX has rallied off that key level, which now is a DOUBLE stop:

1. Swing traders using the 22.05 low of the Ascendiing Triangle will stop out 22.04

2. Many of this morning's gap down short-term players will stop out 22.04

Pattern #4:  If this is a gap-filling Right Shoulder rally, a neckline break is 22.04 (the Left Shoulder would be the entire Ascending Triangle...the Head would be the Bull Flag (which we now know wasn't Bullish).

A break of 22.05 would put a target of 17.36 IN PLAY

Math:

26.74 - High

22.05 - Neckline

26.74 - 22.05 = 4.79 Points

22.05 (neckline break) - 4.79 = Target: 17.36

Admittedly, that doesn't seem likely, but there's been a lot of interest in this stock, and players can "turn tail" on a stock if they get into trouble with it, on a technical break.

Good luck to those of you long.  Nice pick, Frederick!

Thanks for your input Melf ;) (applaud)

Update:
As expected from Monday's after hours, DIVX opened with a gap down. The session was kind of volatile, but DIVX didn't re-visit the lows of $21 reached on the previous after hours session, which was a good sign.
I think this move was not based on reason, and I'm expecting DIVX to quickly ajust its price to the upside.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Up more than 5% Premarket... this is one quick adjustment.  Looking like its falling back a bit but still up over 24 a share.

upgrades coming..   :)

Upgrades & Downgrades History

DivX, Inc. (DIVX)

UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES HISTORY   
Date Research Firm Action From To
1-Nov-06 JP Morgan Initiated  Overweight
1-Nov-06 Cowen & Co Initiated  Outperform
1-Nov-06 Canaccord Adams Initiated  Buy

DivX Seen Benefiting From Online Video Boom
Wednesday November 1, 12:35 pm ET
DivX Shares Jump As Analysts See Long-Term Growth From Online Video Boom

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of digital video compression software maker DivX Inc. jumped in midday trading after two analysts initiated coverage on Wednesday, predicting the company would profit from booming online video consumption.

Canaccord Adams analyst Steven Frankel, who initiated coverage on the stock with a "Buy" rating, suggested investors look at the company's long-term growth potential.

"Clearly since the IPO, the company has generated a large amount of investor interest, leading to a 43 percent rise in the share price since the initial offering on Sept. 21," Frankel wrote in a note to clients. The company went public at $16 a share. "While such a rapid increase could mean that the shares may pause here and digest their gains, we believe the company's future is bright, and we urge investors to look at the company's long-term prospects."

J.P. Morgan analyst Paul Coster, also initiated coverage of the stock with an "Overweight" rating.
"This profitable early-stage company offers very strong growth and profit prospects, in our view, as the leading independent supplier of video compression technology," Coster wrote in a note to investors.
He expects the San Diego company to benefit from increased licensing revenue, and sees the company generating upside from its Web strategy. DivX has a media player available for download on the Web, and it has started a video community site called Stage6.
Canaccord and JP Morgan both underwrote the company's initial public offering.
Shares of DivX, which have traded between $18 and $26.74 in the past two months, added 92 cents, or 4 percent, at $23.76 on the Nasdaq after trading as high as $24.65 in the morning.

Just got into divx at 23.63. This one looks like its going to rebound some more even if the market is doing bad.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 31, 2006, 02:03:11 PM

The Bull Flag was violated intraday, but looked fine at yesterday's close.  This morning...

Oops!  "Buy the rumor...sell the news."

Same response to good news today.

Quote
Pattern #4:  If this is a gap-filling Right Shoulder rally,

We got a morning partial gap-filling rallying on the the analysts' upgrades, then  "sell the good news" again.   A lot of the selling likely is on the part of those who got caught in the channel and didn't sell, prior to yesterday's gap down.

That's known as "technical selling," i.e. "We don't care about the upgrades.  We had a paper loss on the gap down to 22.05, and we have a chance to get out even on the analysts' upgrades.  We want out."

Quote
a neckline break is 22.04 (the Left Shoulder would be the entire Ascending Triangle...the Head would be the Bull Flag (which we now know wasn't Bullish).

Further confirmation today, that the Bull Flag/Bull Channel wasn't Bullish.  It was resistance this morning.

Today's selloff, and maybe a little tomorrow, could be enough to work off that overhang off sellers in the channel, but the rally this moring also put in a "possible" Right Shoulder, and there isn't much room between today's 22.75 close, and 22.05 support.

Quote
A break of 22.05 would put a target of 17.36 IN PLAY

Again, that target doesn't seem realistic, but DIVX has sold off twice now, on good news.   A break of the DOUBLE stop (explained in yesterrday's post) at 22.05 could bring in some more technical selling, having nothing to do with the fundamentals. 

Update:
Some good news pushed DIVX to fill the gap during the morning:
- DivX Seen Benefiting From Online Video Boom (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061101/divx_mover.html?.v=1)
- Coverage initiated on DivX by JP Morgan, Cowen & Co and Canaccord Adams (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=DIVX)

Although, today the market wasn't for great moves on stocks like DIVX, with the Nasdaq closing down -1.37%, DIVX lost all of its day gains and closed the session slightly negative. With the Nasdaq on corrective mode, we may have a longer period of consolidation for DIVX here...

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

This chart is messing with my head a bit  :) ... It appears as though a new trend line (think blue line) can be drawn with the double bottom as the 4th point on it.  The support at 22.05 has been drawn in.  Is the old resistance at 24.00 the top of an ascending triangle or has a pennant formation been formed or what?... not really sure how to read it or if it's even possible to.  All I know is the price action today wasn't great  :-\

Quote from: dwest718 on November 02, 2006, 04:11:20 AM
This chart is messing with my head a bit  :) ...

dwest,

Welcome to the club!  Charts always try to mess with my head. :D

Quote
It appears as though a new trend line (think blue line) can be drawn with the double bottom as the 4th point on it.  The support at 22.05 has been drawn in.

The important thing is,  what did the market respond to.? The solid blue trendline, or to 22.05?

Your blue trendline came in on October 31 at about 21.91.

The low of the Symmetrical Triangle on the intraday chart, that traders will use for a stop, was 22.05 .

The market clearly responded to the latter, because the October 31 low was 22.05 exactly.

If 22.05 had gotten broken, and the market then bounced near your 20.91 trendline, your blue trendline would have much more significance.  We won't rule it out, but we know for sure that it wasn't what was operative on October 31.  Players knew that 22.05 was "a stop buster," and they lined up right there at 22.05, and bought it.  That's confirmation, that 22.05 was important.

Now look at the red up trendline, beginning with the first day of trading.  There were FIVE hits to that trendline, numbered in green.  Hits #3, #4 and #5 are validations that the trendline connecting #1 and #2 is valid, as support. 

"Yes, that's support."  "Yess-, that's support!"  "YES, that's support!"

Generally, when solid support like that gets broken, it has some significance, and we saw that it did.  The trendline was violated intraday on October 30 (WARNING!), but DIVX scrambled back above it into the close.

Technically, when DIVX gapped down on October 31, we can see why it became a question of how far   is it going to gap down, because that was an important trendline break.

The pattern in red is a Bearish Rising Wedge, numbered 1 through 4 in red.  It isn't uncommon for Bearish Rising wedges to "morph" into Bearish H&S Tops, which is why I discussed that possibility over the past couple of days, and the possible importance of  the 22.05 neckline. 

Quote
Is the old resistance at 24.00 the top of an ascending triangle or has a pennant formation been formed or what?... not really sure how to read it or if it's even possible to.  All I know is the price action today wasn't great  :-\

I don't see anything significant about 24.00, but I could be missing something.

The blue down trendline off the 26.74 high has only two data points, so we don't know if it has any significance, or not.  It comes in today, November 2, at 25.0133.  Should DIVX rally to that trendline, and fail, that trendline would be validated as resistance.

Hope that helped a little.  Good luck!

Thanks melf  :D

That was a lesson, an answer, and some analysis all posted in one.  ;D

Update:
No special developments here, DIVX has been trading around $23 with low volume for the past two sessions. We'll continue to hold this position.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX showing a little of its power, with a nice +8.5% advance ;)
I'll try not to practise more short term TA here, since our position was bought just on the 4th session after the IPO, the technicals were never behind this trade.
I keep my opinion, disregarding any classic FA or TA, that DIVX is cheap at these prices, the company could also be a takeover candidate by some major tech player, and I trust the DivX concept as a consumer.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX had a nice start on Tuesday's session, trading once again above $26, but failing to hold those levels. That candle doesn't look good, but once again, we are not much concerned with this short term volatility yet.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Pulled the old double top and drop again yesterday.  Planned on selling on the double top (above 26.23) but missed it because I didn't have the chance to set a sell order before I took a quick lunch.  Hope it rebounds a bit tomorrow  :-\

New Territory  :). Hit $26.80.

uc.

Just broke out briefly to new all time highs at 26.92 on Casio news:

--------------------------------------------------------------------
The EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D Provides High Quality DivX Video

          Capture Interoperable with Millions of Devices
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--November 08, 2006--

 DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) announced today that Casio will introduce a new
model to its line of DivX Certified digital still cameras in Europe. The DivX
Certified Casio EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D model will be available online
throughout Europe in November.


 The new model is a successor to the popular EX-S600D, the first DivX
Certified camera from Casio. The EX-S770D improves on its predecessor by
increasing the megapixel count to 7.2 and allowing for video capture in a
wide-format movie function (16:9 aspect ratio) that combines with DivX
functionality to create breath-taking video.


 In addition, the Casio EXILIM(R) EX-S770D camera allows consumers to easily
access the interoperable DivX ecosystem, to play, create and share high-quality
video content across a range of devices and platforms. This includes DVD
players, recorders and portable media players. Content created on the camera
can be played on all PCs with DivX software installed and on DivX Certified
consumer electronics devices from the world's leading brands.


 "I am very excited about the release of our new EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D
digital camera, which features the outstanding DivX technology that users
appreciated so much in its predecessor, the EX-S600D," said Susumu Takashima,
director at Casio and head of the Digital Camera Unit. "Casio's card-sized
digital cameras are designed to deliver high performance in a compact, slim
shape, and have been very well received by the market. Users are making the
most of our cameras to take not only still images, but movies as well, all with
the greatest of ease. Our latest card-sized model takes movies in DivX(R)
format, and is being marketed in Europe where DivX is extremely popular.
Compared to previous models, the EX-S770D also has a larger display. We look
forward to countless users experiencing the joy of taking and viewing both
still shots and movies."


 "By expanding their line of DivX Certified digital cameras, Casio is giving
consumers the ability to create very high quality video that they can
experience in a truly open and interoperable way," said Jim Geison, Vice
President of Worldwide Sales, DivX. "Users of the EX-S770D can easily share and
distribute their personal content across a wide range of devices, an advantage
that is not offered by other digital video technologies that are confined to
the PC."


 Products that bear the DivX Certified logo have undergone a rigorous testing
program to ensure interoperability, security and visual quality. DivX Certified
products enable consumers to create, play and share high-quality video content
across a range of devices and platforms. Over 50 million DivX Certified devices
from a variety of manufacturers have shipped worldwide.


 For more information on DivX Certification, visit
http://www.divx.com/certification. To learn more about DivX Certified Casio
cameras, please visit http://www.divx.com/casio-digital-camera.
------------------------------------------------------------

As Rams mentioned earlier in the thread, imagine what would happen if the video Ipods were DivX certified  ;)

Quote from: tokyopua on November 08, 2006, 10:07:13 AM
Just broke out briefly to new all time highs at 26.92 on Casio news:

--------------------------------------------------------------------
The EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D Provides High Quality DivX Video


As Rams mentioned earlier in the thread, imagine what would happen if the video Ipods were DivX certified  ;)

A friend just called me a few minutes ago asking: «shall I sell my DIVX today ?»  ;)
And my reply was: «does the iPod has a DivX stamp already ? or the DivX Stamp has an apple on it?»   >:D

Once again, I dont know much what could happen short term, but I think the potential is still HUGE at this point... This kind of news are pushing DivX higher, not because of the news itself, but because of the big picture: DivX concept is spreading around the tech world... soon, everything on the media world will require a DivX stamp... not to say, that i'd really love to have an iPod, and I can't buy it yet because it doesnt support DivX  >:D

have a nice tarding day guys ;)

regards,

Just broke through top of ascending trough at 27.67.  Should really keep on going now :D  Will post chart when I get the chance.  Hope it close near the highs!!

How do you calculate how far it could potentially go up after the breakout.  I know there are percentages and ratios involved but I'm not sure which ones.  Could someone help me out?

Does anyone agree with the use of Andrews Pitchfork for DIVX?  First time I've really tried using this chart tool.

I think we may print 30 very very soon.  I think at the top of the pitchfork is where I'll secure my profits on this trade.  GO DIVX! >:D

Notice how we're above the median line.   ;D

Thai

Quote from: dwest718 on November 08, 2006, 03:33:39 PM
Just broke through top of ascending trough at 27.67.  Should really keep on going now :D  Will post chart when I get the chance.  Hope it close near the highs!!

How do you calculate how far it could potentially go up after the breakout.  I know there are percentages and ratios involved but I'm not sure which ones.  Could someone help me out?

You have to have an historic chart pattern in place to make those type of projections / calculations. DIVX as Ramsburg says is too new to have enough technical history to work from. The stock is being bought on the potential of 'DIVX Everywhere' and is not yet moving on support resistance history etc.
However, If you must though, just draw an ascending channel (like I have) then you may get an idea of the type of deviation DIVX has, and how it may  travel over the coming weeks / months.

we might see more of these divx certification  deals with other manufactures for cameras, camcorders, dvd players etc. ;)

what next .. ?divx on cell phones for video capturing.   :D

Casio Expands Line of DivX Certified Digital Cameras
Wednesday November 8, 8:00 am ET
The EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D Provides High Quality DivX Video Capture Interoperable with Millions of Devices

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) announced today that Casio will introduce a new model to its line of DivX Certified digital still cameras in Europe. The DivX Certified Casio EXILIM® Card EX-S770D model will be available online throughout Europe in November.

The new model is a successor to the popular EX-S600D, the first DivX Certified camera from Casio. The EX-S770D improves on its predecessor by increasing the megapixel count to 7.2 and allowing for video capture in a wide-format movie function (16:9 aspect ratio) that combines with DivX functionality to create breath-taking video.

In addition, the Casio EXILIM® EX-S770D camera allows consumers to easily access the interoperable DivX ecosystem, to play, create and share high-quality video content across a range of devices and platforms. This includes DVD players, recorders and portable media players. Content created on the camera can be played on all PCs with DivX software installed and on DivX Certified consumer electronics devices from the world's leading brands.

"I am very excited about the release of our new EXILIM® Card EX-S770D digital camera, which features the outstanding DivX technology that users appreciated so much in its predecessor, the EX-S600D," said Susumu Takashima, director at Casio and head of the Digital Camera Unit. "Casio's card-sized digital cameras are designed to deliver high performance in a compact, slim shape, and have been very well received by the market. Users are making the most of our cameras to take not only still images, but movies as well, all with the greatest of ease. Our latest card-sized model takes movies in DivX® format, and is being marketed in Europe where DivX is extremely popular. Compared to previous models, the EX-S770D also has a larger display. We look forward to countless users experiencing the joy of taking and viewing both still shots and movies."

"By expanding their line of DivX Certified digital cameras, Casio is giving consumers the ability to create very high quality video that they can experience in a truly open and interoperable way," said Jim Geison, Vice President of Worldwide Sales, DivX. "Users of the EX-S770D can easily share and distribute their personal content across a wide range of devices, an advantage that is not offered by other digital video technologies that are confined to the PC."

Products that bear the DivX Certified logo have undergone a rigorous testing program to ensure interoperability, security and visual quality. DivX Certified products enable consumers to create, play and share high-quality video content across a range of devices and platforms. Over 50 million DivX Certified devices from a variety of manufacturers have shipped worldwide.

For more information on DivX Certification, visit http://www.divx.com/certification. To learn more about DivX Certified Casio cameras, please visit http://www.divx.com/casio-digital-camera.

.

Quote from: njshiva on October 24, 2006, 10:54:05 PM

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 01:33:15 PM

Quote from: Terliso on September 28, 2006, 12:12:28 AM
Good pick, applause ;)

Applause again, I really like this pick this could go up to $30 easily ;D

looks like we might see 30bucks..  Terliso.   ;)

njshiva, 30 bucks is coming soon ;)

How about drawing the channel like this...?  Your's works too though I guess  ;D

Quote from: dwest718 on November 08, 2006, 11:31:07 PM
How about drawing the channel like this...?  Your's works too though I guess  ;D

I drew my channel the same as you and it begs the question if DIVX is possibly going to break out of the channel since it peaks out a bit today  :)  Or it could retrace a bit from here, but it generally feels bullish.  I did trade it succesfully and got back in, but recently I am thinking this one is safer just to hold.

Sold half my position at 29.35 today and looked to sell the rest of it about 15 minutes later and ended up not having the chance  :-[  Still made a few hundred dollars and I have a few shares of a company I like in the long run as well... Let's go DIVX.

However... very bad chart action today with inverted hammer on high volume and close near lows.  Should be an interesting day tomorrow.

You know thats one of the great things about TA. Depending on your timeframe or trading style (or where you start your trendline / channel / whatever line from)  if you build a trading plan and execute to it then you can sell and I can hold and we both are happy ;)

By the way I don't see too much wrong with todays action, it touched the top of my channel and retreated a bit exactly as you would expect (a good place to take profit if that is your style) it is still in the upper qtr of Wednesdays nice white candle.

Good Trading

Here's my version of the DIVX trendline  ;)

I'm new to using Andrews Pitchfork so I'm curious what others think about this particular tool.

Thai

Update:
DIVX almost reaching the $30's ;) but selling down afterwards, this is perfectly normal after such a big rally all the way from $22 in just a few days.
DIVX closed the session a bit down, performing not a nice candle to watch, but anyway, I'm not much concerned with this short term moves, as I'm expecting to see DIVX trading significantly above $30 soon.
$26.50 and $24.50 are the current support levels, we may watch some consolidation at this point (or maybe not ;))

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

DivX reminds me of Adobe Systems (ADBE).  But DivX makes video compression.  I have high hope for DivX.  The market cap of under 1 billion is still low.  Look at RealPlayer market cap of 1.7 billion.  DivX will be a winner or will caught up with RealPlayer market cap. 



Give it more time.  The video booming online will make DivX rich and the dvd player encode with DivX. 

Long term holding on this one.  I will buy more if it fall under $25 and will continue to hold for at least the same market cap as RealPlayer. 

good article to read if some one missed the earnings call.

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/061031/19593_id.html?.v=2

I think we can expect some clarification regarding ps3/xbox360 support next week.

DivX, Inc. to Webcast at UBS Global Communications and Technology Conference

Nov 10, 2006 08:00:38 (ET)

SAN DIEGO, Nov 10, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DivX, Inc. (DIVX, Trade ) today announced it will be presenting at the UBS Global Communications and Technology Conference in New York, NY on Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 11:00 am ET. A Webcast of the presentation will be available on the company's investor relations website at http://investors.divx.com .

Now they have $147 M in cash (proceeds from the IPO were $111 M), so I guess they don't need to raise more capital by issuing shares, as they're also profitable. All too many companies do that, issuing and selling more shares after the IPO, and this is why most IPO's are lousy investments.

$26.35 seems like an important support zone. IPO at $16, closed at $26.88 on Friday, nice 68% return  :)

I just read the article.  The guy share the same version with me .  I believe this company has a bright future. 

www.stage6.com is way better than the stupid youtube.com
Way better graphic but just need more videos loaded on it there.
The best thing about is burning and watching on your divx dvd player.  That is sooo nice....
But stage6 wasn't why I invested in divx.  I like the fact that dvd player need divx and I am sure a lot of eletronics will need divx later.  camara, cell phone, etc.

After reading about ps3 and xbox360, it will jump the stock if divx has an agreement with sony and mircosoft. 

I understand this tech product so for me, I believe a lot of people will like divx code. 

I have a strong feeling that, this company could be bought out.  When you check their competitors market cap, damn divx is still cheap. 

Now show me the hugh growth revenue divx and jump the stock.  If everything goes correctly, divx stock could be worth a $50 dollars stocks, giving them a 2 billion market cap.  I just hope they will do something with their 140 million cash. 

Update:
Press Release:
- DivX, Inc. to Webcast at UBS Global Communications and Technology Conference (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061110/20061110005182.html?.v=1)
«DIVX announced it will be presenting at the UBS Global Communications and Technology Conference in New York, NY on Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 11:00 am ET. A Webcast of the presentation will be available on the company's investor relations website at http://investors.divx.com. »

DIVX had another corrective session last Friday, after reaching almost the $30's the session before. We are still looking to this quick drop as normal consolidation behaviour. I'm avoiding making technical comments here, but $26.74 was the previous relative high, now a standard support zone, and below at $24.00/$24.50 there is the next support area.
I'm not thinking about selling DIVX at this point, as I believe it will trade above $30 soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
Interesting session for DIVX, that just had a new record high on close, finishing the session at $28.48 near the HOD. Volume was not much, but DIVX managed to bounce significantly.
Not much to add here, DIVX is showing strength, and we continue to expect to see it above $30 very soon.

The 10Q was published:
- DIVX INC Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061113/divx10-q.html)

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX had another advance into new historical highs, performing also an historical high close at $28.99 ;)
Once again, I'm not sure what DIVX reserve us for the short term, maybe another consolidation move, maybe a powerful breakout to the $30's, maybe a correction to the $25 support... But I keep my extremely bullish expectations on this position.
No mater what DIVX is reserving for us on the short term, I have a « Moët Chandon» Champagne bottle ready to pop if I see $30 printed on my screen ;)  >:D >:D

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Ironically, this champagne goes for about $30!  :)

Quote from: Ramsburg on November 15, 2006, 08:01:33 AM

No mater what DIVX is reserving for us on the short term, I have a « Moët Chandon» Champagne bottle ready to pop if I see $30 printed on my screen ;)  >:D >:D

Man I can see the cork popping today, probably about 10:00 est  ;)

No idea what you'll be popping when you see $40 printed  >:D

DIVX Everywhere

Quote from: berloga on November 15, 2006, 09:14:34 AM
Ironically, this champagne goes for about $30!  :)

Thats exactly why I choose Moët Chandon for that particular price ;)

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 15, 2006, 09:21:25 AM
Man I can see the cork popping today, probably about 10:00 est  ;)

No idea what you'll be popping when you see $40 printed  >:D

DIVX Everywhere

heheeh... $40.... hum... we'll have to find some special reserve or something ;)

It won't see 30 if it can't break through 29.40.  Building up pretty big resistance there.  Spent a while just below it for the previous high (29.50) and has hit it 4 times today.  Think it will drop a bit again before it gets too much above 29.50... thinking about selling and buying back around 26.50.

Quote from: dwest718 on November 15, 2006, 10:34:18 AM
It won't see 30 if it can't break through 29.40.  Building up pretty big resistance there.  Spent a while just below it for the previous high (29.50) and has hit it 4 times today.  Think it will drop a bit again before it gets too much above 29.50... thinking about selling and buying back around 26.50.

Well DIVX just proved me wrong and broke 29.40 after no volume for about 10 minutes.  29.50 and then to 30 today anyone?

Quote from: dwest718 on November 15, 2006, 10:34:18 AM
It won't see 30 if it can't break through 29.40.  Building up pretty big resistance there.  Spent a while just below it for the previous high (29.50) and has hit it 4 times today.  Think it will drop a bit again before it gets too much above 29.50... thinking about selling and buying back around 26.50.

Well turns out I may be right after all... We'll see where DIVX falls to.  I got out today at 29.30... a bit below the 29.50 level it hovered around for a little while today but still fairly high.  I'll look to re-enter sometime soon for a push back to 30 bucks.

Update:
I guess the «Moët Chandon» must stay on the fridge for a bit while longer...
DIVX started another consolidation movement after hitting the $29.50 resistance a few times.
Since we've bought DIVX, we've already watched a few of this consolidation processes, so I'm really not sure what to expect here, DIVX has a support at $26.74 and another one near $25, we are just going to hold it, as we have a «Moët Chandon» bottle on the fridge waiting to be opened when DIVX prints $30 on the tape.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
Another corrective session for DIVX, I have nothing special to comment at this point... This is just normal behaviour after the huge run on DIVX share since the IPO, we can watch some more consolidation or maybe even a bigger sell to $25/$26, and that will be just normal. We won't do a thing, as we just don't want to loss our position on DIVX at this point, the stock can drop for short term technical motivations, but at any moment we could see another big white candle into the $30's...
The plan is the same:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX was down for a 5th session in a role, but staying above the last relative low, closing above $26.50 that looks like the short term support level.
I'm expecting DIVX to turn around to the upside soon, but still I wouldn't be surprised with a bit more downside to the $25.50 area, nevertheless, we'll be holding it:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Wasn't able to post that I bought more on Monday.

27 shares @ 26.95.  Guess I could've gotten in lower but thought the low range was going to be between 26.50 and 27.00 and I didn't want to miss out if it broke out quickly (like it has several times in the past).  Not a huge position but all the cash I had left in my account so I'm again fully invested.  Good luck everyone!

Update:
DIVX was up again after trading below the $26.50 support zone. The chart looks solid, even if we don't have much history to plot yet...

Some members emailed me questions about DIVX's «licensing» revenues, asking if DIVX would only profit a one time licensing fee per manufacturer ?
The answer can be found right there on the 10Q Form (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061113/divx10-q.html):
Over 50 million DivX Certified hardware devices have been shipped worldwide through September 30, 2006. Our customers include major consumer video hardware original equipment manufacturers such as Philips and Samsung. We are entitled to receive a royalty for each DivX Certified device that our customers ship. In addition to technology licensing to consumer hardware device manufacturers, we currently generate revenue from software licensing, advertising and content distribution.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
Another nice looking white candle for DIVX ;)
Nothing to update here, as we expect it to break the $30 barrier at any moment after the current consolidation range.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX was down, like most stocks today  :-\
The Nasdaq chart may be setting up a short term correction at this point, in order to consolidate the gains achieved during this rally. A setup like this will most likely put a break on DIVX too, but we'll be holding it for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

DIVX big green candle 28.91 as I write

Quote from: Tirebldr on November 28, 2006, 02:46:15 PM
DIVX big green candle 28.91 as I write

Shall we put the «Moët Chandon» ready in the fridge again ?  ;)

Quote from: Ramsburg on November 28, 2006, 02:57:27 PM

Quote from: Tirebldr on November 28, 2006, 02:46:15 PM
DIVX big green candle 28.91 as I write

Shall we put the «Moët Chandon» ready in the fridge again ?  ;)

At this rate, I hope you have a very good fridge that can chill it in less than an hour  :o

Thar she blows. Next stop $30. Will probably regret it, but sold 2/3. After yesterday, I got intimidated  ::)

BQI is another to consider. Bot at 4.89

BAM..........Let me be the first to say "HELLO 30!!"

$30.00 achieved! Nice pick Rams!

uc.

Man I always get out to early... :( got to just stick with it hehe. At these levels is the 3stocks portfolio planning on cashing out soon?

POP ;)

(http://www.moet-hennessy.at/images/image_0.jpg)

Sorry guys... the bottle is already empty... and I'm a little dizzy ;)  >:D ... I'm going for another one ;)

Quote from: nullzero on November 28, 2006, 03:31:19 PM
Man I always get out to early... :( got to just stick with it hehe. At these levels is the 3stocks portfolio planning on cashing out soon?

Not in my plans right now...

Quote from: usedcasting on November 28, 2006, 03:29:52 PM
$30.00 achieved! Nice pick Rams!

uc.

Thanks... this one has been difficult to hold with such volatility... but I'm really glad this is working as planned ;)

congrats to all DIVX holders ;)

Wow just saw DIVX print a 12% gain for the day a second ago  :o.

congrats ramsburg, nice trade.
and it ain't over yet by the looks. :D
drink up!
maxi

If this holds, wouldn't you think it'll gap in the morning ???

Wow on fire up 15% for the day and im missing all the gains :(!! Im too afraid to jump back in at these levels I rather play it on the save side. If I were still in I would place a firm stop hehe.

Glad to see so much champagne pouring all over and many happy people.

Do U have an exit plan or want to stick around??

GLTA

Another Power Move!!  >:D >:D >:D

It's probably too late for this one if you didn't catch it when it broke out today.

I will put it on my watch list, just in case. . .

WOW!

Man, I needed this after yesterday's blood bath! ??? ::) >:( :o :-X

  I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth as they say, but was there any news?  Here is what I could come up with:

http://www.gearlive.com/index.php/news/article/verizon-offer-youtube-vcast-11281218/

Now Google had a deal with DIVX for use in mobile devices from back in January, so that should carry through to YouTube now that they own them.

Any other ideas for the move up?  After you come off your respective champagne buzzes, that is  ;)

Congrats to all who were holding on to divx !!   ;D ;D
The stock zoomed past 30 with 50% volume coming in the last hours.
Lets see how it holds tomorrow.  8)

Update:
What a day for DIVX «believers» and Champaign lovers ::)

Honestly, I was not expecting to watch DIVX breaking up to the $30's today, not after the Nasdaq behaviour on Monday, but of course I was not surprised at all to see DIVX above $30, I always thought it was only a matter of (a short) time. Today's white candle was the biggest since the IPO and it was a clear momentum breakout that changes the tone of this chart.

No news on the street, which in fact is good... DIVX has a lot of reasons to go up, therefore speculation and big white candles are only natural things to expect for DIVX (as a lot of volatility both ways too).

I'm not sure what could be behind this move, but I always keep in my mind some of the following thoughts:
- AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, they all have the «power» to own the DivX phenomenum...
- The DIVX concept, like the mp3 a few years ago is quickly spreading around the globe, and DIVX gets royalties for each piece of hardware sold with the DIVX certification. There's a lot of equipment already with DIVX certification, but there is also a lot of «main» gadgets without it yet, not to say that some unexpected «hardware» like Cars (Volvo) are becoming DivX certified.
- The Youtube acquisition by Google for 1.65B makes the Video Scene an interesting sector, especially hot concepts like DIVX that are winning the public demand.
- DIVX's market cap have reached 1.00B with today's climb... but for example RealNetworks (RNWK) market cap is about 1.80B, and in my opinion we cant even compare both companies prospects...

Holding DIVX with such volatility is not an easy job, we are always thinking about locking a good profit... I can't predict what will be the short term upside target for the current swing on DIVX, probably $34 / $36, almost for sure DIVX will have another correctional move to the last resistance (now a support) and some consolidation, but I'm pretty confident that DIVX has a lot more of potential for mid/long term.

Our plan for now will be to continue holding DIVX, although we may change it later and sell DIVX during this swing and try to catch it later, but we have no reasons to sell right now, so the plan is the same:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

This volatility is killing me.... we need see a bounce here though.  Moving toward 29.50 as I type.

Update:
DIVX had a big sell off today, dropping back to the breakout level and closing on the last relative high (~$29.50). This kind of behaviour is not something new to DIVX, as the chart has done before this kind of ugly candles after previous rallies; I guess it's the natural way of consolidation for DIVX.
We are prepared and expecting this kind of volatility and this works both ways... DIVX has been breaking new ground to the upside and having large consolidation ranges after that...  $29.00 / $29.50 is a support level, below that the $26.50 / $27.00, I'm not expecting to see DIVX going that low, but nevertheless we're confidently holding this stock as we see much more potential to the upside.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
After that big sell off candle, DIVX had a curious candlestick, this Doji (http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html) can also be interpreted as some point of balance between buyers and sellers with no one taking care of yesterday's session, which corroborate my view of a support near $29.50. The trading volume decreased again, which could be positive taking in consideration this can be a consolidation movement.
Let's wait ;)

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
News:
- DivX, Inc. to Webcast at Cowen and Company 2nd Annual Internet Conference (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061201/20061201005158.html?.v=1) [December 7, 2006 at 2:30pm ET]
- Coverage initiated on DivX by Maxim Group (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=DIVX) [Recommendation: Hold]

DIVX was down once again with another ugly session, and losing most of the advance from that big white candle. Despite this, DIVX is still showing a powerful up trend on its chart, and we'll continue to hold this position. If DIVX is willing to sell off a bit more, the $26.50/$27.00 area is where the ascending support is plotted right now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Rams... I love this company! I'm a little overweighted in it already but if we see a drop this morn down to your support area of 27ish... I'm buying a little more >:D Greed has hurt me in the past but I don't seem to ever learn. With DIVX though, something tells me a story is brewing. If Apple or someone really big comes on board; look out.

                      regards, mitch

Quote from: anvilring on December 04, 2006, 08:45:24 AM
Rams... I love this company! I'm a little overweighted in it already but if we see a drop this morn down to your support area of 27ish... I'm buying a little more >:D Greed has hurt me in the past but I don't seem to ever learn. With DIVX though, something tells me a story is brewing. If Apple or someone really big comes on board; look out.

                      regards, mitch

Hi Mitch,
Did you get any  ? I wish you good luck ;)

Update:
And yet another bad session for DIVX...
The stock is now reaching what I think will be a strong support level, the area of $26.50 / $27.00, we'll continue to hold this position as we expect it to break above $30 soon after this consolidation.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:

Interesting Article by Investor's Business Daily (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/061205/newamer.html?.v=1):

Quote
Investor's Business Daily
DivX Wants To Be Video Download Standard
Tuesday December 5, 7:00 pm ET
Kevin Harlin


When video sharing Web site Stage6 went live two months ago, DivX (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) executives watched little dots representing new users pop up on a computer monitor in San Diego.

"You just saw Japan light up hours after the service was up," DivX founder and chief executive Jordan Greenhall said. "The Japanese had discovered and were using it."
And the company is not just a hit in Asia. Buy a DVD player in Europe, and odds are the DivX logo will be on the front.

Now the six-year-old San Diego company says consumers in its home country are starting to embrace its higher-quality digital video compression technology as more people take video downloads from their laptops to cell phones and living room televisions.
DivX (pronounced div-ex) makes video compressing and decompressing software, called a codex. By compressing the information, and ditching extraneous data from the file, such technology can shave hours off the download of a full-length feature film, while maintaining high-quality playback.

Only 20% of DVD players sold in the U.S. in the third quarter can play back DivX-encoded video vs. more than 80% in Europe. But for all of 2005, only 5% of U.S. DVD players could read the DivX format.

The company's video sharing site is minuscule in comparison with Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG - News) YouTube, but the company says it's quickly gaining ground.
Users worldwide have already downloaded more than 180 million copies of DivX's software. It's spent more than 260 weeks on Download.com's list of 50 most-downloaded programs, along with a slew of file-sharing and spyware-sweeping programs.
More than 50 million DivX-encoded DVD players, digital cameras, and other devices are now in the hands of consumers around the globe.

The company went public in September at $16 and quickly saw the price double by November. Management owns about 45% of the shares.
"If you look at the stock, it's pretty expensive," said Robert Adams, who watches the stock for Montgomery & Co. "But if there's one thing we pay for on Wall Street, it's visibility."
Adams thinks DivX can become a video standard. "I think they've got much more momentum than someone like Microsoft," he said.

But right now more consumers know YouTube, with its slightly grainy videos of amateur stunts, pontifications and other moments people want to make public. Users view the videos on the ubiquitous but lower-resolution Flash Player, an Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE - News) product.

But Greenhall, 35, doesn't see Google or Adobe as his competitor.
Adobe's Flash video player is fine for quickly streaming a short clip, he says, but if someone wants to download a longer clip, and perhaps watch it from a comfortable chair on a large-screen television, he'll want the higher image quality DivX's compression and playback technology offers. Greenhall doesn't rule out partnerships with Adobe.
"I have no particular interest in doing what they do, and if they're interested in doing what we do, they're not particularly well-placed to do so," Greenhall said.
His company already has a partnership with Google, getting paid for every customer who installs the search engine's Firefox Web browser with the DivX software download. That accounts for about 20% of revenue.

The other 80% comes from licensing fees from DVD and other electronics makers. On that front, the company is signing deals with major electronics manufacturers such as Samsung and Philips. It gets a royalty of more than $1 per DVD unit sold with its technology embedded.
And the company says Casio is selling a digital camera in Europe that has the DivX coding software inside. Deals with cell phone makers aren't far off either, the company says.
While video on those smaller screens represents less money per unit for DivX, the potential volume is enormous, says analyst Paul Coster of JPMorgan, which underwrote DivX's IPO.
This DivX is no relation to DIVX technology of the 1990s, a sort of pay-per-play DVD system that quickly fell flat.

When Greenhall, two fellow Texas A&M University alums and two other friends founded the company in 2000, it called its software DivX ; ) -- the winking emoticon a nod to what Greenhall called a failed half-step toward digital distribution of video.
DivX is still tainted by some as the software of choice for playing back bootlegged video downloaded on the Internet.

"Since DivX went from being a technology to a company, they've tried to move away from those roots," said Joe Laszlo, a senior analyst covering broadband and media for Jupiter Research. "They're growing up and going legitimate."
And Coster says any outlaw image is unfair.
DivX's Stage6 file sharing site is scrupulously clear of copyrighted materials and illegally downloaded files, he notes.
"They're so squeaky clean, it's kind of boring actually," he said.

But perhaps the biggest danger on the horizon for DivX are the deep pockets and big know-how of the competition. DivX faces the likes of Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL - News), Google, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - News), News Corp. (NYSE:NWS - News), Sony (NYSE:SNE - News) and YahooYHOO.
And Coster warns to expect some volatility in the stock because of the uncertainty of market adoption.

But he, too, thinks DivX could become the coding standard, as the sharing of video between the Internet, cell phones and the home entertainment center becomes more seamless.
"Its one of these companies that's right in the thick of things," Coster said.

(http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/fi/9/78/62.gif)

Copyright 2006 Investor's Business Daily, Inc.

DIVX was down once again, now trading really close to the ascending support level. I expect to see some reaction at any moment.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

I think it was Dwest a few sessions back that said the volatility on DIVX was a killer. Sure it is volatile, but very tradeable in a perfectly respected ascending channel.

If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Good Trading

Have you guys seen this?   :o


Samsung To Launch New Video Phone With DivX

Wire Service - Tuesday, 5 December 2006

As more consumers demand a bigger screen and as carriers push sport on 3G handsets Samsung has chosen to try and grab market share by introducing a new video phone with DivX code capability.





Samsung Electronics plans to release a mobile handset in January that is designed for watching video and supports the DivX video codec.
Both the high-end and video-ready Ultra Video F500 and the Ultra Audio F300 handset, which also plays some video formats, are being shown at the International Telecommunication Union's Telecom World 2006 exhibition and conference being held this week in Hong Kong.

Information on where Samsung will sell the handsets was not immediately available. 

The Ultra Video F500 is a candy bar-shaped handset with a TFT LCD screen that offers 262,000 colors and resolution of 240 pixels by 320 pixels. The screen can also swivel, allowing users to find the optimal screen angle for watching video in one of several formats: DivX, MPEG4, H.264, and Windows Media Video.
Samsung claims the US$350 phone is the first to support DivX, a video codec based on MPEG4 that allows a DVD to be compressed to a much smaller size, allowing longer videos to be downloaded more easily.

Along with video, the Ultra Video F500 handset supports several digital music formats--MP3, Advanced Audio Coding (AAC), AAC+, e-AAC+, and Windows Media Audio (WMA). AAC is the file format used with Apple's iTunes music download service.
In addition to playing a range of music file formats, the Ultra Video can be used with music download services that support WMA digital rights management (DRM) and Microsoft's Media Transfer Protocol. Other features include a microSD slot for a removable Secure Digital memory card, support for Bluetooth version 2.0, and a 2-megapixel digital camera.
Although the handset is on display at Telecom World, it is not switched on and visitors are not able to test its features.
Ultra Audio F300 Specs
Samsung also showed off its upcoming Ultra Audio F300 handset, which will hit the market in January, priced at $250. Shaped like a candy bar, the Ultra Audio does not support third generation (3G) networks and has a slightly smaller screen than the Ultra Video. The Ultra Audio's screen measures 2.1 inches across the diagonal.
Ultra Audio F300 supports the same audio file formats as the Ultra Video. It can also play back MPEG4 and H.263 video files.

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 06, 2006, 02:45:37 AM
If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Applaude the great call.

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 06, 2006, 02:45:37 AM
I think it was Dwest a few sessions back that said the volatility on DIVX was a killer. Sure it is volatile, but very tradeable in a perfectly respected ascending channel.

If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Good Trading

Hi Aussie,
I agree with the «respectable ascending channel», and I'm including on my last chart ;)
About this volatility, it's «tradeable» for sure, but for 3SOF we're just holding since the start, as Livermore once said: "My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position, and then where would I be ?"  >:D >:D

Quote from: thai626 on December 06, 2006, 06:51:23 PM
Have you guys seen this?   :o


Samsung To Launch New Video Phone With DivX

Wire Service - Tuesday, 5 December 2006

Hi thai ;)

This kind of news will be increasing for the next 12 months I believe... According to that other article, only 20% of US DVD Players have the DivX certificates, against 80% in Europe. Now with DivX being used also in Cell Phones, we should expect more news from much other producers of electronic gadgets.

Update:
After 5 tumbling sessions, DIVX had finally a positive reaction, making our support assumption correct, and possibly setting a new tone for the short term. We continue to expect to watch DIVX beating new highs, its possible some more consolidation, but we're holding this position tight.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
Yet another test to the supports... DIVX is a volatile stock, and that's no surprise to us. I have nothing to update today, we continue to expect a reaction to the upside at these levels, and we're holding this position on the 3SOF Portfolio.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
News: DivX Extends Google Toolbar Deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061208/divx_google.html?.v=1)

I don't think this Google Toolbar deal is much important for DIVX, but it still accounts for about 20% of DIVX revenues... The deal was extended for another year:

QuoteForm 8-K for DIVX INC

8-Dec-2006

Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement

Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
On December 7, 2006, DivX, Inc. (the "Company") entered into an Amendment (the "Amendment") to the Google Toolbar and Google Deskbar Promotion and Distribution Agreement, as amended (the "Agreement"), between the Company and Google, Inc. ("Google").
The Amendment provides for an increase in the minimum distribution commitments of Google software the Company is required to achieve, together with an increase in the minimum fees payable to the Company by Google pursuant to the Agreement. In addition, the Amendment extends the term of the Agreement to the earlier of December 31, 2007 or the date that the Company reaches the cap on the total amounts payable by Google under the Amendment, and provides for an increase in the amount of such cap.

DIVX session was not much volatile, opening near the highs of the day, and losing some gains during the rest of the session. I got nothing new to update at this point, as I continue to expect an upside reaction to the $30s soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

The last 3 or 4 calls Cramer got for DIVX he kept saying "ring the register", but today he was back to being 100% bullish, said it is the next Akamai, like "son of Akamai", like Ghandi II back and bigger than ever, I like the stock, etc. and that it goes to its high of $31 again before end of the year.  The guy did call it as a buy from the very first day of its IPO, good to see he got his sense back  ;)

BTW, lets hope he is right, AKAM has nearly tripled in the last 18 months!

Quote from: tokyopua on December 12, 2006, 12:41:36 AM
The last 3 or 4 calls Cramer got for DIVX he kept saying "ring the register", but today he was back to being 100% bullish, said it is the next Akamai, like "son of Akamai", like Ghandi II back and bigger than ever, I like the stock, etc. and that it goes to its high of $31 again before end of the year.  The guy did call it as a buy from the very first day of its IPO, good to see he got his sense back  ;)

BTW, lets hope he is right, AKAM has nearly tripled in the last 18 months!

Hi toky ;)
Yes, the «Cramer effect» on DIVX has been very substantial... He totally pumped it in the day we decided to buy it for 3SOF (that gap up on the 4th candle) and made us bought it 2$ higher than expected... he also bashed it a few days later, and call it a buy several times again... Now DIVX is standing near the ascending support, and we are waiting for an upside reaction, Cramer may help that happen a little faster :) But to say the truth, I don't like his effect on the stock, I see DIVX going much higher than just $31, and he may decide to bash DIVX again above $31, hopefully, the (real) reasons behind DIVX rally will prevail ;)

Update:
DIVX is consolidating this price range near the support level, like we said before, we expect an upside reaction at any moment soon.

Looking back to that article from IBD:

Quote from: Ramsburg on December 06, 2006, 01:46:37 AM
But perhaps the biggest danger on the horizon for DivX are the deep pockets and big know-how of the competition. DivX faces the likes of Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL - News), Google, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - News), News Corp. (NYSE:NWS - News), Sony (NYSE:SNE - News) and YahooYHOO.

Honestly, this is the only part of the article I don't really agree ;) I see this «biggest danger on the horizon» as an underlying opportunity for DIVX, as any of this «deep pockets» may want to buy DIVX instead, I mean, if DIVX comes to be the «standard», or lets just say, if any of these companies believe that DIVX may come to be the standard... they will not fight the standard, they will want to own the standard ;)
Anyway, we'll just keep holding «the standard» ;)

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

bought DIVX on break of yesterday's high at $28.35 (a few cents above ideal entry, but I'm ok with it).

The plan is to hold it and ride the uptrending channel. will cut losses below yesterday's low of $27.36  :)

holding DIVX as per my plan.

to speak the truth, I hate the short term trading strategy even though that's what I've commiteed to of late...reason being, my portfolio is quite small and I wanna bring it up to a decent level before being able to buy 2-3 stocks and holding them anywhere from a week to a month or 2 months. now that is how I like to trade.

anyways, I hope to gte started on implementing my favorite trading strategy early part of next year...lemme get my accnt up.

one thing I have mangaed to do with this short term strategy is to cut losses quickly (unlike in the past)...of course, the downside is it doesn;t give me much wiggle room.

damn...trading ain;t an easy game...untile you get a feel for it and get confident  ;)

Hi vic666 :)

Want to make your small account grow? Buy GOAM, close your eyes and ears to the market and sell it in the 2nd quarter of 2007.

At least that's what I would do, not short term trading. Good luck :)

Hi Vic666,

I've moved your post about GOAM in reply to David to David's GOAM topic:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7673.msg80763#msg80763

regards ;)

Update:
DIVX continues to test the ascending support line... Nothing to update at this point.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

got stopped out at $27.32....a 3.3% loss, but I can live with it. the chart today showed lower lows than the last 2 trading days...for those holding. I wish you the best and hope it turns around for you.
:)

hmm...got back in on break of yesterday's high of $28.55, a penny above to be precise.

it's one of those days when DIVX reversed intraday from it's lows and from break of yesterday's and the day before's low, to go higher...inspite of a flat to down general market today.

Hi Vic666,
Yesterday, that low at $27.25 was cruel... it was a trap simulating the breakdown of the ascending support. Anyway, DIVX behaviour can be sometimes very volatile, so the best way of dealing with it is by having some extra room. I wish you success with this position!

Update:
DIVX tested once again the support line, this time with a significant volatility and an interesting intraday move. This could be at last the upside reaction we've been waiting for... the short term range was not broke to the upside yet, but I'm looking forward for some nice price developments now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Thanks Ramsburg! I analyzed where I could have gone wrong with my stop loss price (place just below the prior day's low of $27.35....at $27.31). I think I know what I did wrong:

I overlooked the fact that the last few days of trading had no defined trned (up or down)...it was a sideways trading zone, consolidating around the $27-28 area. Under such circumstances when there is no defined trend (short term of course), and when there is a clear congestion sideways pattern, the stop must be placed below the low of the congestion zone.

In this case, it would have been $26.76 or just a bit below $27..either way.

I gotta learn from the mistake...and this time...I'm hoping the trend will sustain. But if it were to drop back to the low $27's or even just below that..you know I ain't smiling.  :D

Quote from: vic666 on December 14, 2006, 08:19:30 AM
Thanks Ramsburg! I analyzed where I could have gone wrong with my stop loss price (place just below the prior day's low of $27.35....at $27.31). I think I know what I did wrong......

Vic, the other thing you can do is use Average True Range (ATR) over say 10 to 14 days. That'll show you how much volatility a stock has (regardless of where it is in it's channel / pattern). Then multiply it by whatever you are comfortable with (greater than 1 at least) and set stop accordingly. DIVX ATR (14 days) is $1.65. Immediately you would see your stop is in the danger zone of intraday noise.

DIVX News: Not ground breaking, just informative and indicative of direction

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 14, 2006--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) announced
today that it will join the Russell 3000(R) Index and the small-cap Russell
2000(R) Index when Russell Investment Group reconstitutes its family of U.S.
indexes on December 15. Russell recently posted a list of additions to its
indexes on www.russell.com.


Jordan Greenhall, co-founder and CEO of DivX, said, "The Russell Indexes have a
history as respected tools used by investors to track the market and its various
movements and trends. We are encouraged by the increasing validation from the
investment community of both our solid business growth and our larger mission to
build a better media future across the digital landscape."


Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional
investors for index funds and as benchmarks for both passive and active
investment strategies. More than $2.5 trillion in assets currently are
benchmarked to them. Investment managers who oversee these funds purchase shares
of member stocks according to that company's weighting in the particular index.

this can only be construed as a positive developement. don't all these index funds have to buy this stock now?  we'll see.  soxguy

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 14, 2006, 08:28:18 AM

Vic, the other thing you can do is use Average True Range (ATR) over say 10 to 14 days. That'll show you how much volatility a stock has (regardless of where it is in it's channel / pattern). Then multiply it by whatever you are comfortable with (greater than 1 at least) and set stop accordingly. DIVX ATR (14 days) is $1.65. Immediately you would see your stop is in the danger zone of intraday noise.

Aussie, how u been doing mate?
I hear what you are saying about the ATR...but clarify this - from what price point are you suggesting I place my stop loss based on the ADR of $1.65? It cannot be from my buy point, coz the market doesn't care at what price I bought in. If it were gonna be based on Monday's closing price of $27.50'ish, that means my stop would be in the high $25's...and placing my stop there would be useless because I see $26.76 as the low of the sideways trading zone from the last few weeks.

simply put - what reference point would be my basis to pick my stop loss based on ADR?

Thanks for ur comments!  :)

The ATR by its very nature is an average of the daily range top to bottom. What it tells you is that on a trading day DIVX can move (up or down) by $1.65 and, that that movement would not be considered unusual. How you use that information is up to you. Personally,  I would not put a stop within that ATR number based on my entry point. No the market doesn't care on your entry price only you do (so pretend you are the market and calculate from your price). If the ATR stop puts protection way below known support or channel then I would pass on entering the trade.

I am not saying its a perfect way, just another approach to consider. Whipsaw exits are always a danger.

Good luck

thanksAussie...I'll add the ATR to my arsenal.  ;)

applauds to you for brining it to my attention.

Nice inputs Aussie ;) (applaud)

Update:
News: DivX, Inc. Joins Russell 3000 Index (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061214/20061214005217.html?.v=1)  (already posted by Aussie)

This is good news, not bombastic, but good for the company visibility among the institutionals, and it should provide some buying pressure as well.

From the technical front there are no big developments yet; DIVX was up today again but with light volume and closing below the open. The short term pattern is showing a slow reaction over the support area, all we need now is a breakout of this short term consolidation range to the upside ($27/$29), and I’m sure the volume will show up then.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX is having some difficulties to breakout the tight consolidating range near this support level. We'll keep on holding it for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
From a technical perspective I'm a bit apprehensive with DIVX current behaviour, the stock is stalled inside a tight trading range, testing the support level for several weeks with its momentum getting weaker. And now, DIVX is breaking the ascending support line... The stock is still trading inside the short term range, but is showing too much weakness for my eyes...  :-\

We are holding a 40% profit on DIVX right now, it's good but already $4 below the high near $32 last month... I was expecting to see DIVX in the mid $30's at this point, not here...
I have great expectations for the company, but I must be protective at this point. So I'm selling half of DIVX position today at or near the open.

Trading Plan:
Sell Half of this Position and Hold the rest.

Best regards,

I'm jumping ship today on DIVX  :'(

The action lately is just too much for me to handle.  In fact, I know I should have jumped out earlier and secured my gains but stupid me, I kept holding for a turnaround.    >:(

  Doesn't it look like DIVX is forming a H&S pattern?

Quote from: thai626 on December 19, 2006, 11:31:55 AM
I'm jumping ship today on DIVX  :'(

The action lately is just too much for me to handle.  In fact, I know I should have jumped out earlier and secured my gains but stupid me, I kept holding for a turnaround.    >:(

Hi thai,
Yes… DIVX is not trading as we expected, the recent weakness has triggered a short term selling signal on yesterday session (a pre signal on Monday’s session). I’m glad we sold half of this position for the Portfolio, so now we can handle the rest with less pressure.

Quote from: berloga on December 19, 2006, 04:10:43 PM

  Doesn't it look like DIVX is forming a H&S pattern?

Hi berloga,
Yes, we can consider some kind of H&S pattern going on here…
 
Update:
DIVX continues to sell off, now trading below the ascending support line, and testing the lows of the short term trading range.
This is not looking good… but now we are just holding half of our initial position. We sold that half due to short term caution and profit management, so that we can now give a little more room to this trade with less pressure.

DIVX price behaviour has been quite volatile during its short history, we’ve watched some significant sells before followed by unexpected (technically speaking) recoveries. I’m not sure what’s going on, neither the reasons of this sell off. Since its IPO, DIVX is up big time, and this alone could be a reasonable explanation, other reason could be more speculative, and related with the expectations of the company issuing more shares (which is common after a successful IPO like this one).

I still believe that the DIVX codec will be the global standard, that the licensing revenues will sky rocket, and that the company could be the target of an acquisition…
Either way, being wrong or right the market can be unpredictable, so I’m setting a stop for the remaining half position, and will wait.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX with a stop @ $24.90
3SOF is holding just half of the initial position (sold half @ $27.50)

Best regards,

It could just be that DIVX is waiting for the 50ma to catch up.  You can see that the last big move was made right before the 50ma showed up on the chart and we have had sideways price action ever since.  Price is staying above the 38.2 fib level of this entire move so no real breakdown has occurred yet.  Both this fib level and the 50ma are coming in pretty close to each other.

I'm with Rams.... even though I sold several days ago, (and I readily admit, for no other reason than a hunch! ) This is one super story/company I want to continue owning. Theres several reasons for this decline as have already been stated and I'll throw in one from the film " Shakespeare in Love".... 

                                                      "its a mystery!"

In any event, there codec is the horse to bet on and after this mad Christmas rush to buy/use all things electronic, demand for their product could start its accent post haste. As people buy more Divix enabled product and find they like it, demand, as with all things computer related, multiplies exponentially.

I am watching Cramer do a special segment on DIVX. 
-Says 4 buys and 1 hold from the analysts, so not much upgrade potential. 
-Insider lockup not expireing till March 22nd, keeps some investors out till then, 44.8% of the company owned by insiders, they will want to take some off the table. 
-POssibility of a secondary, would crater the stock... 
-Hard to estimate size of its market...
-Real Networks, Apple, Sony, are potential competitors, but has Google as a partner...
-Trades at 17.4 times sales (not earnings) is sky high...

So, he is saying sell.  This after last week saying it is the next Akamai, lol.  But now the chart is saying the same thing, what to do, what to do...

Quote from: basonista on December 20, 2006, 07:52:31 AM
It could just be that DIVX is waiting for the 50ma to catch up.  You can see that the last big move was made right before the 50ma showed up on the chart and we have had sideways price action ever since.  Price is staying above the 38.2 fib level of this entire move so no real breakdown has occurred yet.  Both this fib level and the 50ma are coming in pretty close to each other.

Hi Basonista ;)
I‘m also looking to the ema50 as a potential support… The ascending channel is broken, but this only means that the pattern stopped working, it doesn’t necessary means that DIVX must continue to sell off.

Quote from: anvilring on December 20, 2006, 09:29:24 AM
I'm with Rams.... even though I sold several days ago, (and I readily admit, for no other reason than a hunch! ) This is one super story/company I want to continue owning. Theres several reasons for this decline as have already been stated and I'll throw in one from the film " Shakespeare in Love".... 

                                                      "its a mystery!" 

Wherever there is a stock full of traders with profits on their pockets there is no mysteries for a sell off ;) The problem right now is what to expect from here, since there are a few questions on the air (will it be insider selling, a secondary offer, etc?).

Quote from: tokyopua on December 21, 2006, 01:04:04 AM
I am watching Cramer do a special segment on DIVX. 
-Says 4 buys and 1 hold from the analysts, so not much upgrade potential. 
-Insider lockup not expireing till March 22nd, keeps some investors out till then, 44.8% of the company owned by insiders, they will want to take some off the table. 
-POssibility of a secondary, would crater the stock... 
-Hard to estimate size of its market...
-Real Networks, Apple, Sony, are potential competitors, but has Google as a partner...
-Trades at 17.4 times sales (not earnings) is sky high...

So, he is saying sell.  This after last week saying it is the next Akamai, lol.  But now the chart is saying the same thing, what to do, what to do...

Thanks Toky ;)
Cramer loves to shake DIVX with his comments, but he has a point with some of these topics even if he his not being much coherent with his own opinion. I mean, I agree with the concerns of a secondary offer (I already mentioned on yesterday’s update) and the Insider lockup till March, but about the 17.4 times sales and the competitors concerns… come on ;)… Hard to estimate the size of its market? Isn’t that great ? a market so huge that is difficult to estimate its size ;)

Update:
Cramer has talked about DIVX once again, here is the transcript from Mad Money Recap:

QuoteDon't Dive Into DivX
DivX is the "hottest of the hot," Cramer told viewers. The company went public on Sept. 22, and Cramer told viewers to get in on Sept. 26. The stock has been up 52% since Cramer's recommendation.

DivX makes software that compresses digital video and licenses it to companies. It has a deal with Google  and is moving into Eastern Europe and India.
The company makes the majority of its money by selling its product at a much higher price than it costs to make.
DivX is starting to get coverage by analysts and right now has four buys and one hold, giving it limited upgrade potential, Cramer said.
Moreover, the fact that its share-lockup doesn't expire until March 22 is good and bad, he said. It's good because there won't be an insider selloff until March, but it's bad because investors will be waiting for the selloff before they get into the stock.
What's more, there is a strong possibility of a secondary offering, which could crater the stock, he said.
Although it's been profitable for the past two years, that doesn't mean it deserves to go higher, Cramer said.
"I don't want you in DivX for the next few months," he said, adding that there's a good reason to be conservative. Cramer likes it a lot cheaper.

We share some of Cramer's concerns… and that’s why we already sold half of our position… In the other hand, we still have great expectations about the company prospects and its business concept, and that’s why we are not selling the other half right now, even if the technicals are not so good right now.
DIVX has a support near $26.75, its ema50 is located near $26.35, and our current stop price for the remaining position is $24.90, giving some room to this trade. We’re waiting…

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX with a stop @ $24.90
3SOF is holding just half of the initial position (sold half @ $27.50)

Best regards,

Not sure why it's down in pm

Here's why:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10329081_2.html

Don't Dive Into DivX
DivX is the "hottest of the hot," Cramer told viewers. The company went public on Sept. 22, and Cramer told viewers to get in on Sept. 26. The stock has been up 52% since Cramer's recommendation.

DivX makes software that compresses digital video and licenses it to companies. It has a deal with Google and is moving into Eastern Europe and India. The company makes the majority of its money by selling its product at a much higher price than it costs to make.

DivX is starting to get coverage by analysts and right now has four buys and one hold, giving it limited upgrade potential, Cramer said.

Moreover, the fact that its share-lockup doesn't expire until March 22 is good and bad, he said. It's good because there won't be an insider selloff until March, but it's bad because investors will be waiting for the selloff before they get into the stock.

What's more, there is a strong possibility of a secondary offering, which could crater the stock, he said.

Although it's been profitable for the past two years, that doesn't mean it deserves to go higher, Cramer said.

"I don't want you in DivX for the next few months," he said, adding that there's a good reason to be conservative. Cramer likes it a lot cheaper.




Cramer said DIVX has limited upgrade potential and is overvalued.  Also, he says that there's a strong chance there will be a 2nd offering of stock that will greatly dilute the price.  Perfect time to come out with this since DIVX looked like it had the potential to run after yesterday's gap up and positive day on a neutral/negative market day.  >:(

I sold 2/3rd of divx around 29 and moved  into goam and bfly. bfly is going down too but not as much.  Selling the remaining today. I think technically the chart is damaged.  :(

Update:
As expected, Cramer’s words had a significant effect on DIVX share price…
DIVX is now trading below the $26.50 support and the ema50, volume increased and the overall technical picture is now a bit ugly.

Personally, I’m not expecting to watch DIVX going much below its current level, we’ve sold half of this position 2 days ago, and we’ll stay with the stop @ $24.90 for the remaining half.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX with a stop @ $24.90
3SOF is holding just half of the initial position (sold half @ $27.50)

Best regards,

I'm assuming 3SOF is still holding b/c I dont see it in the 'previous pics' section.

Thoughts?

ouch! ouch !! ouch !!!
I was soo in love with divx. Look like 23 in play  :P

DIVX is looking pretty oversold and we had a near bounce off the 61.8% fib level yesterday.  A little consolidation around here would be nice....  :)

If video on the web is hot like people think (ONSM, MAMA, HAUP) then DIVX should respond along with the other video/web/hardware related stocks.

A good buy point would be on a break (or close) above yesterday's high of 24.79.  I would be cautious though since DIVX has come down pretty hard the last couple of days.  That said, there could be some money to be made on this volatility.  ;)

Still oversold with a nice move up today back above the 61.8 fib level.  A good buy point would be a strong move above yesterday's high of 23.65.  Tech had a strong day today so let's see if it will continue tomorrow and if DIVX will follow suit.

Back into divx. This time smaller position  ;)

I'm with you at 22.50 njshiva,

DIVX looks to have found support at $22, and is making a nice bounce back here.  I see first real resistance at 24.75 and at 25.20.  Above that, my next traget is 26.30.  This may be a pretty quick move, and DIVX is up above $24 PM now.  Yesterday's volume was good, lets hope today is better.  ;)

Nice little piece on DIVX from JPM:

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070105/23560_id.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070105/23560_id.html?.v=1)

DIVX is looking a little dangerous here - has formed 2 doji stars with support kicking in at 23.50.  If it breaks this level, I think DIVX could sell off again.  I'm not willing to take the risk, and will set my stop loss just below here, taking a small profit.  On the upside, it needs to break 24.80 resistance to get moving again.  Maybe we will get some more news out of CES today.  Lets see what happens...

Sold DIVX yesterday at 23.80, for a gain of 5.7%.

Didn't like the downward tone after the last 2 days dojis.  As American Bulls states, this gies me a short term sell signal:

http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=DIVX&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S (http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=DIVX&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S)

Technically, it did actually hold 23.30 support, the closing price of the long marubozu last week, and closed the small gap that opened on Friday.  I see short term support at 23.50 and 23.30, short term resistance at 23.80 from the intraday chart.  In my opinion, DIVX needs to break 24.30 to maintain its upward momentum.  I'll be keeping an eye on this one.  Good luck guys if you are holding.

We should see a nice earnings rally between now and feb. ;)

DivX, Inc. to Announce Fourth Quarter and Year End 2006 Results
Tuesday January 16, 8:00 am ET

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) announced today that it will issue its earnings release for the fourth quarter and year end 2006 after the market close on Thursday, February 8, 2007. DivX will host a conference call to discuss the results at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day.

I'm not sure what analysts expect the numbers to look like this Q (presumably quite good), but technically, DIVX has its short term chains set and it needs to rally from here.  As I see it, the last 2 candles show short term resistance to be at 23.10.  Above there, resistance is in the 23.70-80 range.  If it can get over this it may well fuel a rally.  The chart looks like it may be forming a W-bottom reversal right here, but to provide confirmation of this pattern, DIVX would need to break the recent high of 24.45.  The (conservative) target of the W bottom is 26.60, representing about a 15% gain from current levels.  This also corresponds to the major resistance level from the H&S top breakdown. Support kicks in below at 22.50 and 22, so is not really a bad trade right now if you are willing to risk 4.5-5%, putting a stop just below $22.

Indicators don't look great right now, but that could all change quite quickly.  I liked DIVX when I traded it last week, but it just didn't have the momo to continue its move.  After putting in a second bottom, it may have the strength to break out this time.

Good lukc njshiva ;)

Wrong chart  ??? ??? ???

But thanks for the analysis. I agree.

Amarens

Apologies Amarens,

Have fixed it and put the right chart in now.  Divx still looks o be struggling toay, currently B22.45,A22.50, below that first support line at 22.50.  Don't think this bodes too well for the rebound idea, but it may make a ice low-risk but if $22 support is maintained.

However, I'm fully invested right now and won't be jumping in

You know what, having a second look at the chart, DIVX REALLY needs to make a double bottome here at$22 and rally, otherwise it may be in a world of trouble.  I mentioned on my previ0ous post the H&S top in Nov and Dec, which had a target of 21.71
(Head high = 31.89 - Right shoulder low = 26.80 = $5.09 => 26.80 - 5.89 = 21.71), which was made at the beginning of January, before the stock bounced for that small rally.  However, looking at the chart I see a potental double H&S top forming, this one much larger, with the left shoulder formed in October, and the right shoulder forming right now.  Horizontal support at $22 forms the neckline for this larger H&S top, which has a target of about $12.21.
(Head high = 31.89 - left shoulder low = 22.05 = 9.84 => 22.05 - 9.84 = 12.21)  Please, if anyone cares to correct my math or choice of shoulder points, please do!

This is really just a heads up - it could still form that W-bottom here and bounce back up, but I did not like yesterdays candle, which closed below both the previous days doji lows, and made a new low for the last 5 sessions.  It also looks like a pattern similar to a bearish falling three methods

DIVX has hyped up technoology, but it does remain to be seen whether they are really growing revs going forward with their licensing model.  I would be very cautious right here.

I think your analysis are correct. I have a 20% loss right now  :'( :'( :'( Want to see if it does form that W bottom

Applaud Scottish!

Amarens

DIVX broke key support yesterday at $22, and failed to get back above it, putting in is lowest close in 3 months.  I think that looks pretty bearish right now, and it may be good for a short trade.  Of course the problem is that DIVX is already down over 30% from its highs, and the breakdown of the descending channel would have been much better.  Still, it looks to me like it has completed the second H&S top, and is currently gapping lower.  A move below the recent 21.44 low will cause real problems for DIVX, as there is not a lot of support below, and virtually all owners of DIVX stock will be underwater and feeling the pinch.

Cramer also gave DIVX a "sell" so we may see further negativ knock on from that.  Good luck with your decision if you are still holding Amarens, I would be very careful at this juncture.

enter 300 shares at 20.62. 

Going Long......

i have been reading this thread and I can see that you guys are chicken pussy investors. 

you start selling out when it dropping big time but for me, I'm going into it.

and fuck Cramer. 

when he say sell, you buy.

DIVX put in a solid reversal candle yesterday, closing up over 7%, above Friday's high and well into Thurdsays candle.  Currently poised at $21.  Looks like it should rebound to $22, but remains to be seen whether it can break this level and make a sustained positve move.  I covered my short yesteday and went long at $20.24.

DIVX moved out of a big descending wedge pattern.  Would be nice if some volume kicked in now but the chart is definitely looking better....

Another positive day Friday for DIVX.  Made a bit of money on this one on both the short and long side, but obviously missed th major moves both up and down.  Right now I would like to see DIVX close above 22.70 resistance.  I think this would signal that it wants to make up some of its lost ground and push back to the $24-25+ trading range.

I dumped it with some loss. Should have waited from some time.. earnings coming this week  :(

Had a great run yesterday. Looks like an upward swing trend is in play here. Anyone have any ideas if it has a shot at a nice run like it did back when 3SOF recommended this stock? I enjoyed that run and would buy in if I could do a better job at reading this chart.

double bottom @ 18.52 & 18.58$?

DIVX update:
DivX "buy," target price reduced

Friday, February 09, 2007 5:59:41 AM ET
Montgomery & Co

NEW YORK, February 9 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Montgomery & Co maintain their "buy" rating on DivX Inc (ticker: DIVX), while reducing their estimates for the company. The 12-18 month target price has been reduced from $28 to $27.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported robust results for the December quarter, with revenues marginally and EPS significantly ahead of the estimates. DivX has issued weak revenue guidance for the March quarter. The company is expected to continue to invest in order to boost its long-term growth prospects, which is likely to exert pressure on its pretax income in the current quarter, the analysts say. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $0.53 to $0.51.

hey oliver,

Here's my take on DIVX:  It does look like DIVX may be bottoming here, and we can see positive divergences in most of the technical indicators (RSI, MACD, CCI) from the January and March lows.  Currently, 20.80-82 is the key horizontal resistance level.  A break of this level would put our W-bottom target of 23.06 IN PLAY.  A break above here also looks like it would be a significant break of the recent downward trend that has formed a large wedge since just after DIVX started trading.  This large wedge would have an approximate target of $34, however, I am not too convinced by this formation. 

Fridays candle does look signicficant however, and the price is now clearly above th 13ema, which is just staring to point upwards.  Horizontal resistance looks to come in at 20.80-20.90, $22, $23.10 and $24-24.20.  The tricky one is setting a reasonable stop.  A stop at 18.50 would provide conservative protection, but would also expose you to quite a bit of risk.  A tighter stop just below 19.25 would give a risk of about 6% from friday's close, which is better, giving about a 1:2 risk:reward ratio on a move to the 23.06 target.  I think I would aim to buy between 20.20 and 20.30, or on a break of 20.80, and move my stop up to just below 20.20 as quickly as we see price continuation.

All in all, I quite like the potential here. 

DIVX should rebound for good now.............30's here we come


Divx Sees Better 1Q Profit, Revenue
Monday April 9, 4:48 pm ET 
Divx Predicts Better-Than-Expected 1st-Quarter Profit, Revenue


SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Video compression software maker Divx Inc. on Monday raised its first-quarter revenue and earnings outlook above Wall Street expectations, sending its shares sharply higher in the aftermarket session.

According to preliminary results, the company said it expects its earnings to be flat to up compared with its fourth-quarter results of 21 cents per share. Previously, Divx had said its profit would be flat to slightly down.

Divx also forecast revenue of between $19.8 million and $20.2 million for the quarter ending March 31. In its previous guidance, the company had said its revenue would be between $17.3 million and $19.3 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are looking for a more modest profit of 13 cents per share on revenue of $18.7 million.

Co-founder and Chief Executive Jordan Greenhall said the rise in earnings and revenue was due to more consumers choosing their products.

Divx shares climbed $2.50, or 12.4 percent, to $22.60 in aftermarket activity, after closing at $20.10 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

DIVX should rebound for good now.............30's here we come


Monday April 9, 4:48 pm ET 
Divx Sees Better 1Q Profit, Revenue
Divx Predicts Better-Than-Expected 1st-Quarter Profit, Revenue


SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Video compression software maker Divx Inc. on Monday raised its first-quarter revenue and earnings outlook above Wall Street expectations, sending its shares sharply higher in the aftermarket session.

According to preliminary results, the company said it expects its earnings to be flat to up compared with its fourth-quarter results of 21 cents per share. Previously, Divx had said its profit would be flat to slightly down.

Divx also forecast revenue of between $19.8 million and $20.2 million for the quarter ending March 31. In its previous guidance, the company had said its revenue would be between $17.3 million and $19.3 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are looking for a more modest profit of 13 cents per share on revenue of $18.7 million.

Co-founder and Chief Executive Jordan Greenhall said the rise in earnings and revenue was due to more consumers choosing their products.

Divx shares climbed $2.50, or 12.4 percent, to $22.60 in aftermarket activity, after closing at $20.10 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

DIVX chart look yummy   :P

I jumped in this morning at $23.25.......Let's see what comes out of it near term.  Key resistance will be about ~$24.25

Time to make some money!!

DivX "buy"

Thursday, April 19, 2007 2:30:57 AM ET
Montgomery & Co

NEW YORK, April 19 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Montgomery & Co maintain their "buy" rating on DivX Inc (ticker: DIVX). The target price is set to $30.00.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company is integrating its latest windows software with Intel's Media Series motherboards. This would result in the expansion of DivX's footprint in the consumer electronics markets, the analysts say. Montgomery & Co adds, however, that the company's unit volumes are expected to remain low in the near term.

Just noticed DIVX is down badly today, saw they posted improved earnings, did they guide lower or something?

DIVX: Q1 EPS 10c vs 11c Misses 13c Est; Guidance In-Line with Consensus
Wednesday, May 02, 2007 06:30ET

QUARTER RESULTS
DivX, Incorporated (DIVX) reported Q1 results ended March 2007. Q1 Revenues were $20.22M; +44.33% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +2.07%. Q1 EPS was 10c; -9.09% vs yr-ago; MISSING earnings consensus by -23.08%.

Q1 RESULTS    Reported      Year-Ago     Y/Y Chg      Estimate    SURPRISE
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
Revenues:      20.22M       $14.01M     +44.33%       $19.81M      +2.07%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
EPS:                10c           11c           -9.09%               13c             -23.08%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------

GUIDANCE

Q2-07 Revenue Outlook [$16.7 - $18.7M]: DIVX expects Q2 revenue to be in the range of $16.7 to $18.7 million. The Q2-07 revenue forecast is in-line with current consensus estimates.

&
the reason for the drop:

DivX "buy", target price reduced

Wednesday, May 02, 2007 4:11:30 AM ET
Montgomery & Co

NEW YORK, May 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Montgomery & Co maintain their "buy" rating on DivX Inc (ticker: DIVX), while reducing their estimates for the company.
The target price has been reduced from $30 to $24.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 1Q results broadly in-line with the pre-announcement. DivX has issued disappointing guidance for 2Q, with the midpoint of the revenue guidance of $16.7-$18.7 million short of the prior estimates and the consensus. The company expects its operating expenses to increase going forward, since it is increasing its headcount. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been reduced from $0.60 to $0.52 and from $0.85 to $0.78, respectively.

new 52 weeks low  ::)

1)
InvestorInstantMessaging: DivX, Inc. Reports Quarterly Results
Thursday , May 03, 2007 04:48ET
May 03, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- InvestorIM has been created as a tool for the average investor. The idea is simple, a website where the world can communicate. Do you have a stock related question, then why not ask 50,000 individual members? Are you a shareholder of DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX)? Join the many members engaged in this stock right now. Come see for yourself at www.investorim.com for your complimentary subscription.
Divx Inc. late Tuesday reported first-quarter net income of $3.66 million, or 10 cents a share, up from $3.28 million, or 11 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2006. The San Diego-based software company said revenue in the three months ended March 31 rose to $20.2 million from $14.1 million a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting, on average, a per-share profit of 14 cents on revenue of $19.8 million. For the second quarter of 2007, Divx expects revenue of $16.7 million to $18.7 million. Analysts are looking for revenue of $18.2 million.
2)
DivX "buy", target price reduced

Wednesday, May 02, 2007 4:11:30 AM ET
Montgomery & Co

NEW YORK, May 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Montgomery & Co maintain their "buy" rating on DivX Inc (ticker: DIVX), while reducing their estimates for the company.
The target price has been reduced from $30 to $24.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 1Q results broadly in-line with the pre-announcement. DivX has issued disappointing guidance for 2Q, with the midpoint of the revenue guidance of $16.7-$18.7 million short of the prior estimates and the consensus. The company expects its operating expenses to increase going forward, since it is increasing its headcount. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been reduced from $0.60 to $0.52 and from $0.85 to $0.78, respectively.

3)
DivX to Webcast at Upcoming Financial Conferences
Wednesday, May 16, 2007 08:00ET
SAN DIEGO, May 16, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) today announced it will be presenting at the following two financial conferences:
-- JP Morgan 35th Annual Technology Conference in Boston, MA on Tuesday, May 22, 2007 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
-- Cowen and Company 35th Annual SMid-Cap Technology Conference in New York, NY on Wednesday, May 30, 2007 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
All Web casts will be available on the company's investor relations Web site at http://investors.divx.com.

Well ...this one didnt turn out to be ultimate  stock to own  >:(
I made decent $'s during initial bull run though. Wont touch it untill the chart shows signs of recovery.

i bought a small amount of shares today at 13.2.....

this is too freaking low .........

Way oversold........

target 17+ ............. no need freaking 25+.............

I read about a partnership between DIVX and HAUP at HAUP's thread and thought of bringing this thread/stock to the Watch List.

I'll post some analysis later.

One of the main concerns I always had on DIVX (back when Ramsburg loved the stock) was the possibility of dilution after the IPO. Well, that never happened, in fact, the company has been buying back its own shares aggressively in the open market (1.4 million shares bought back in Q1 08 alone).

The cause for the 81% top to bottom drop was simply and mainly due to ... an earnings multiple contraction. Really, more than the change in fundamentals, what seems to move stocks over the medium term are changes in the valuation investors are willing to attach to a certain company, which depend heavily on their animal spirits, or confidence to invest. Now, the level of "confidence to invest" and its changes are hard to measure.

Buffet has a curious line on this subject, which is: "Be fearful when others are confident and confident when others are fearful". He usually buys low p/e stocks, giving him what he calls a margin of safety. I guess that if stocks have a low p/e, it is because investors are fearful of the future, and therefore one should be confident.

Of course, this doesn't work all the time (I still didn't learn the distinctions there are to make, in order to know how to differentiate good low p/e stocks and bad low p/e stocks). Well, I feel I still don't know what is a good stock and what isn't. This game is a lot more complex than I initially thought. Maybe someday I'll learn enough, and the game will be as easy as I thought when I made my first trade in 1996.

Well, but this is about DIVX.

According to analysts estimates, and I agree with them, DIVX will earn $0.74 per share in 2009. It is therefore valued at 12 times forward earnings. This compares to a p/e of 50 around the company's IPO and an historical average of 24.5:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45544;image)

And the company continues to grow its global market share:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45545;image)

I'm not going to explain much further why I like DIVX, because it is explained much better in the three analysis I'll attach. If you're interested in these analysis, download and read them.

If you're not interested, there's no problem at all.

The plan is:

Buy DIVX around the open, 6.66% of capital, as usual.

Update:

I traded DIVX here for the 3SOF Portfolio soon after the IPO, my reasons at the time were more related with me being a huge fan of their concept rather than any rational valuation. Anyway, it was a nice trade, even if it never got it much above the $30’s like I was previously expecting ;)
After that, the technicals started to signal danger, and the stock was already trading at premium multiples…

After all this time, I still love their concept, they are still growing as expected and working on the way to be a global standard in video compression… but now DIVX is trading at much interesting prices.

From a technical perspective, DIVX developed a big island reversal bullish pattern, and the price action has been working in conformity with this pattern (even if the typical pattern is no so long). The stock breached out it’s EMA-50 and is heading to a descending resistance which is located near the $10.50 level. The short term support level (in case of further consolidation) would be near $8.5 level.

Like David mentioned, the stock is trading at very low multiples, and apparently there is no reasons for that to happen since their numbers have been strong. I would recommend a fast read on the last JPMorgan’s note of Research already posted by David, JPM is currently expecting a Fwrd EPS of $0.80 for 2009:

(http://www.clubeinvest.com/forum.bolsa.antigo/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19265;image) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45547)

Just to add to this topic, I also gathered the detailed estimates from all analysts covering DIVX with dates of last updates:

(http://www.clubeinvest.com/forum.bolsa.antigo/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19264;image)

JPM usually takes the lead on this kind of upgrades, so I would expect further upgrades from other analysts during this quarter which would be a nice catalyst for the stock.

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX

Regards,

Update:

DIVX has been running since the last update, testing the descending resistance for a few days and finally making today a first breakout attempt. The session was quite volatile, and the stock couldn’t hold the highs of the day, but still closed above the breakout zone and up 2% over increasing volume.

Technically speaking, this kind of candle suggests some kind of consolidation for short term, which makes sense when joining it with the resistance level and normal breakout volatility.
We’re up 10%, but unfortunately the only valid support is still a few ticks below our entry zone (the EMA-50), with that I mean that short term volatility may affect our open profit in case of a normal consolidation / market noise. To the upside, and if DIVX manage to hold above this breakout level, I see the EMA-200 (aprox $12) as the natural next step.

The catalyst for today’s session, was another upgrade, this time from Barrington Research. JPMorgan also posted some positive comments about DIVX today (once again).
You can checkout both complete documents here (I’d recommend a quick read on Barrington’s Research, that is still only predicting a 0.63 EPS(FY-2009), below JPMorgans estimates):

(http://www.clubeinvest.com/forum.bolsa.antigo/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19269;image) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45786)  ------ (http://www.clubeinvest.com/forum.bolsa.antigo/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19270;image) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45787)

With this new upgrade (and probably we’ll continue to see more within short term) the new estimates consensus is:

(http://www.clubeinvest.com/forum.bolsa.antigo/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=19271;image)

So the new consensus 2009-Fw EPS is 0.675, which puts DIVX trading at 14.66 times (fw) earnings. I don’t have sector estimates for 2009, but the sector 2008 est P/E is 27 against only 17 for DIVX. This kind of context continues to give DIVX a lot of upside potential regardless of this short term rally.

Soon we’ll be introducing a stop level for this position, but not yet. So the trading plan is the same for now:

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX

Update:

After the recent breakout, DIVX kept trading above the breakout area, which by now it’s a great signal. The expected outcome of this layout would be another extension on its up swing (probably to the 200-EMA near $12), the other scenario would be an extended consolidation to its 50-EMA near our entry price.
At this point I’m confident about the fundamental backup on this play and I think the reward / risk ratio is still good, so let’s wait for technical developments.

BOE Research Services also initiated coverage about DIVX, starting with a HOLD Rating and estimated PT of $10.61. Their estimates are by far the most conservative from all research notes I’ve read about DIVX, BOE estimate just $0.28 EPS for 2008 (and $0.61 for 2009).

The research note:

(http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3276/12212881db0.png) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45869)

A summary of their thesis:

Quote
We initiate coverage on the shares of DivX, Inc. (DIVX) with a HOLD rating and a $10.61/share intrinsic value estimate. Based on our Shareholder Value Analysis, DIVX is trading at a 6.7% discount to our intrinsic value estimate. Our rating and valuation estimate is based on the following factors:
Licensing Partnership with Leading Manufacturers of DVD Players, HD Television and Mobile Phones to Support Long Term Growth and Profitability: DIVX continues to strengthen its partnership with leading market players in the three primary digital media areas, namely DVD players, HD-Television and Mobile handsets. The company said global penetration of its DivX solutions in the DVD market stood at 42%, up 27% in FY07 from FY06. Further, the company renewed its contract with Samsung and Philips to license its digital media solutions across multiple product categories, in addition to DVD players.
Acquisition of MainConcept AG to Expand DIVX Application Base: In November 2007, DIVX acquired MainConcept AG, a leading provider of H.264 video compression technology for broadcast, consumer electronics and software markets, for $22 million in cash and stock. It also includes an earn-out of $6 million if MainConcept completes certain developments goals and financial milestones. The deal will enable DIVX to include H.264, a video compression technology widely used to deliver and view high quality audio-visuals on mobile phones and consumer electronics, in its solution suite. We believe the acquisition should help DIVX to expand its market and further broaden its licensing base to drive long term profitable revenue growth.
Outlook: Based on the company guidance and our outlook, we expect DIVX to generate an annual average revenue growth of 11.0% and an annual average operating margin of 21.3% over the next five years. Any issues related to the integration of MainConcept and a slowdown in the consumer electronic sales are some of the key risks to our estimates. Currently, DIVX trades at a 35 times projected FY08 EPS of $0.28 and at 16 times FY09 EPS estimate of $0.61. The multiple implies a PEG ratio of above one based on our 5 year average EPS growth rate of 19%.

Not a particular enthusiastic note when compared with most recent notes from JPMorgan or Barrington’s, but still showing interesting prospects and upside potential. I’m not aware about BOE, but their estimates are not being accounted for the market consensus estimates (at least in Reuters estimates).

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX

DivX Reaffirms  ;)
Wednesday, May 28, 2008 12:14ET

May 28, 2008 (EarningsWhispers Guidance Summaries via Comtex) -- DivX Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX) said at the Cowen & Company TMT Conference it continues to expect second quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.09 to $0.11 per share on revenue of $20.5 million to $21.5 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $21.3 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2008. The company also said it continues to expect 2008 earnings of $0.52 to $0.58 per share on revenue of $95.0 million to $100.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $98.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2008.

This earnings guidance summary was provided by EarningsWhispers, a leading provider of earnings expectations - including corporate guidance announcements and analysts' expectations that differ from published estimates. http://www.earningswhispers.com

http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.26856becc4ec63ccbdb0c33f7ca629ab861be9782c4b7b37b98694cf04d210bd

Update:

Quick chart update: DIVX finally closed above the $10 mark, giving a more solid tone to the recent breakout.
Personally I expect DIVX to reach $12 at any time.

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX

Update:

DIVX had a quick sell off during the recent market turbulence. As for now, this down move didn't compromise its pattern and can be considered a normal consolidation move. The 50-EMA is working as a support and as long as DIVX holds above this EMA I think this trade is secure, let's wait for further developments.

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX

Update:

I'm upgrading the trading plan adding a protective stop level.
I really like DIVX fundamental prospects, and technical layout, but due to current market volatility and current managing strategy we should use a stop. In this case I'm setting a stop slightly below the 50-EMA.

The new trading plan is:

Trading Plan:
HOLD DIVX  with a stop @ $8.50

DIVX stopped @ $8.50

Update:

Don't have much time to justify, but this is a speculative try to catch DIVX at extremely low prices near a support zone. I really like the fundamentals, trading at just  11 times 09 earnings, DIVX had a big correction, closing the big gap and touching the ascending support. Yesterday's candle suggests a probable rebound.

Some of JPMorgan's comments that are In Play:

Quote
DivX, Inc
**Overweight**
More Pieces of the Mosaic

Samsung's Omnia SGH-i900 Windows Mobile phone has been
certified as DivX-compliant, for both encoding and decoding.
The Omnia will be released in S.E. Asia in June and in Europe
soon thereafter. DIVX recently secured a multi-year agreement
with Samsung, and several Samsung F500 phones are now
certified for use with DivX. LG has also adopted DivX on the
Viewty.

We believe DIVX has released a beta version of its H.264 decoder
for testing (aka "Project Remoulade"). This is an important step
towards introducing a codec suited to the set-top-box and broader
mobile phone market. Management previously advised that the
H.264 codec would not be available before 2009.

DIVX traffic jumped again in June, placing the website back in the
global top 500, according to alexa.com. Unlike the April jump,
this seems to be unrelated to a new release of the codec, but it may
coincide with video file-sharing activity as college students
approach graduation.

Cisco projects a six-fold increase in Internet traffic from 2007 to
2012, according to a report in today's Wall Street Journal. Video
accounted for 5% of internet traffic in 2005, but is expected to
grow to 30% this year and 50% by 2012. Direct downloading
from websites is expected to grow faster than video file-sharing
(DivX's sweet spot), though both should grow. We believe DivX
remains close to becoming the elusive de facto standard for
compressing high bit-rate video.

Sony Pictures TV plans to launch a series called "Angel of Death"
on the web in 2009. Sony Pictures TV announced a partnership
with DIVX at CES in January, which suggests that DIVX will be
used to distribute Sony content at some point in the future.

We'll buy it today and we'll set a stop slightly below yesterday's low, our goal is to catch a nice rebound on this one.

Trading plan:
Buy DIVX this morning at or near the open, set stop @ $6.50

Bought @ $7.28 for the portfolio

oversold imo  ;)

DIVX stopped @ $6.50

Quick Analysis:

Our last trade on DIVX had a very tight stop, and we're wiped out because of just 10 ticks...  :-\
Fundamentals remain solid despite the poor general environment, Technicals are improving with DIVX already above its 50-ema and with a recent breakout. We're trying to jump into DIVX on the next throwback.

Standby Trading Plan:
Buy DIVX below $8.50

Bought DIVX @ $8.32 for the Portfolio.

Update:

We've bought DIVX yesterday during the expected throwback at $8.32, we're not setting the stop right away, but we'll probably set one near 7.50/7.75 soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Update:

A positive reaction on the area we're waiting for. DIVX reacted positively on the short term support area and 50-ema, it will probably need to consolidate this 8.25/9.00 area, but we're definitively looking for an upside breakout.

We're setting a stop level on this trade:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX with stop @ $7.50

Update:

DIVX kept trading at the same level, still above the short term ascending support and the 50-ema.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX with stop @ $7.50

DIVX has acting in parallel to the market  ::)

Funai Blu-ray Player Achieves DivX Certification(TM)
Tuesday , September 02, 2008 08:00ET

SAN DIEGO & DAITO CITY, Japan, Sep 02, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX), a digital media company, and Funai Electric Co. today announced the DivX Certification(TM) of a new Blu-ray player from Funai. The player will be launched in the European market in October.

With DivX Certification, Funai's new Blu-ray player, the B1-M110, is capable of seamlessly playing back high-quality DivX(R) video. DivX technology enables a premium visual experience in digital video while considerably reducing its file size. The B1-M110 will allow consumers to play back DivX video that has been burned to DVDs and CDs. Funai's newest Blu-ray player expands the DivX ecosystem within the Blu-ray device category and joins over 100 million other DivX Certified(R) devices shipped by DivX licensees into the market including digital televisions, mobile phones, digital cameras, personal media players and set-top boxes.

"Consumers are increasingly turning to next generation solutions for their home entertainment and there has been continual demand from them to support the playback of DivX video in the living room," said Moriyasu Yoshitake, General Manager, DVD Product Planning Department, Funai Electric. "Working with DivX has allowed us to provide our customers with a high-quality solution for digital video."

"DivX has become a standard feature in the DVD category and our increasing traction within Blu-ray devices speaks to our continued mission of enabling a high-quality media experience across any device," said Patrice Lagrange, Senior Vice President, Products, DivX, Inc. "Consumers have demanded a premium experience for their digital video entertainment and the DivX Certified B1-M110 delivers."

Products that bear the DivX Certified(R) logo have undergone a rigorous testing program to ensure a high-quality DivX media experience, including reliable video playback, interoperability with other DivX Certified devices and the visual quality users expect from DivX.

Update:

DIVX had a first move towards our direction confirming the existence of a short term resistance near $9.20 and before that confirming the 50-ema working as a support. The main bullish layout continues in place, now forming a possible ascending triangle for short term.
The 50-ema stands at 8.40 and the 200-ema at 10.15.

Current consensus estimates shows EPS of 0.56 for 2008 and 0.66 for 2009, which makes DIVX to trade at just 13 times earnings (09FY), while most of its peers trade around 30. Most of recent research notes, show a solid trend regarding estimates upgrades after DIVX showed once again numbers above expected in a difficult business environment. This gives us some potential and backup for upside moves, at least from a Fundamental approach.

I'm raising the stop level a bit and set a minimum target in place, so the current trading plan is:

Trading Plan:
Sell DIVX above $10 with stop @ $7.99

DIVX was stopped last Friday @ $7.99 during the intraday market sell-off.

just a chart update  ;)