3SOF

Ascending triangle breakout on 4x average volume, also broke through the 200MA, bullish cross on the MACD! There's also a gap from May 06 to be filled just under 8$!
I'll be looking for an entry on Monday. :)

Thoughts on this one?




Sector:   Technology
Industry:   Computer Peripherals

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Immersion Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, marketing, license, and support of various haptic hardware and software technologies and products that enhance users to interact with digital devices using their sense of touch. The company operates in two segments, Immersion Computing, Entertainment, and Industrial; and Immersion Medical. The Immersion Computing, Entertainment, and Industrial segment offers products, such as gaming, mobility, automotive, and 3D and Mechanical CAD Design. The Immersion Medical Segment provides medical simulation products, such as CathSim AccuTouch System, which simulates intreavenous catheterization and phlebotomy; Endoscopy AccuTouch System, which simulates endoscopy procedures; Endovascular AccuTouch System, which simulates endovascular interventions, including cardiac pacing and agiography, angioplasty, and stent placement; Laparoscopy AccuTouch System, a simulation hardware that can be integrated with third-party software for laparoscopic surgical procedure simulation; and the Hysterscopy AccuTouch System, which simulates hysteroscopy. The company markets its simulation systems to hospitals, colleges and universities, nursing schools, medical schools, emergency medical technician training programs, the military, medical device companies, and other organizations involved in procedural medicine. Immersion Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.




(http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/7216/immrrj7.jpg)

Hi
I saw this move too.
First big move in a long time.
IMMR is due for a $90M settlement from Sony soon and news out yesterday was that they picked up a new customer (see below).

I've got some Nov 7.50 call options and I have been biting my nails lately!
I hope this is a big run!

Tactile Feedback in Touchscreens Enhances User Confirmation, Communication, and Control
SAN JOSE, Calif., Sep 28, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Immersion Corporation (IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, announces that the largest supplier of kiosks in North America, KIOSK Information Systems (KIOSK, www.kiosk.com ), is now offering Immersion's TouchSense(R) tactile feedback solution in its kiosks for the self-service and retail industries. Serving both North American and European markets estimated at US$1 billion and 193,000 kiosks* annually (77 percent using touchscreens), KIOSK's new TouchSense tactile feedback option significantly expands exposure for the technology. KIOSK will be exhibiting in booth #2000 and Immersion will be exhibiting in booth #407 at the Self-Service & Kiosk Show, San Antonio, September 28 and 29.

TouchSense components integrated into touchscreen designs produce tactile feedback in response to the user's press. For retail and self-service applications, the simple addition of a tactile cue may either help overcome user uncertainty or enhance the user experience. A tactile cue supplies unmistakable confirmation, encouraging more rapid and accurate data entry. By establishing clear communication, it also promotes greater ease-of-use leading to higher customer satisfaction. And a tactile cue increases interactivity and a sense of control, helping to create a more engaging experience to encourage continued use.

"KIOSK has built virtually every type of self-service application in every type of location and environment imaginable," explains Michael D. Levin, vice president and general manager, Immersion's Touch Interface Products group. "One of the reasons they are such a strong leader is that KIOSK is not only a manufacturer, but also a consultant in ensuring the long-term success of their customers' projects. KIOSK sees the value of our TouchSense system and will now be able to help its customers capitalize on tactile feedback technology for improving kiosk applications and the user experience."

*Kiosks And Interactive Technology, 2006, Summit Research Associates, Inc.

About Kiosk Information Systems ( www.kiosk.com )

Founded in 1993, KIOSK Information Systems is a leader in the design and manufacture of self-service kiosks. For applications including bill payment, human resources, music download, order entry, photo kiosk, public internet access, and ticketing, the company's innovative products have been delivered across numerous industries for clients including Borders, Citibank, Disney, FEDEX, McDonald's, Mercedes Benz, Pepsi, Sony, Wal-Mart, and the United States Postal Service. The company's processes allow customers to participate in design and development, which speeds time-to-market and reduces costly rework. Its ISO-9001 high-production manufacturing facilities in Louisville, Colorado and Larbert, Scotland provide typical delivery times for standard products of 3 to 6 weeks and custom designed product prototypes within 5 to 8 weeks. KIOSK products are UL and CE certified and manufactured using independent modules that can be serviced quickly and easily in the field.


Best
GMan

Thoughts for a good entry here, 200MA(daily) or 50MA (Weekly)?




(http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/4503/immr1pg8.jpg)

My Take Immersion v Sony the Appeal
Statement of Issues
Sony:
1. Whether the district court erred in denying judgment of noninfringement as a matter of law when claims 41-46, 49, 50, 53 and 54 of the '213 patent require decoupled and independent control of the frequency and magnitude components of perceived vibrations and Immersion's expert admitted, than in the Sony system the user will perceive vibrations that are not decoupled.

Immersion:
1. Whether the judgment of infringement of claims 41-46, 49, 50, 53 and 54 of the '213 patent must be affirmed when the jury's verdict is supported by substantial evidence, including expert testimony by detailed test results demonstrating that Sony's accused PlayStation products use the claimed pulsing techniques to create tactile sensations whose magnitude is controlled independently of their frequency?

Sony:
2. Whether the judgment that Sony infringed claim 7 of the '213 patent should be reversed, where:
   a. the jury's infringement verdict was based on faulty claim construction in which the district court failed to limit claim 7 to require that each one of the plurality of actuators varies the frequency and amplitude of it's vibration; and
   b. it is undisputed that Sony's accused system has two actuators, only one of which can vary the frequency and amplitude of its vibrations, and, accordingly, under the correct claim construction, no substantial evidence exists to support the jury's verdict.

Immersion:
2. Whether the judgment of infringement of claim 7 of the '213 patent must be affirmed where: (1) the district court properly interpreted claim 7 to require than a complex tactile sensation of varying frequency and amplitude by produced by the combined effect of the plurality of actuators; and (2) Sony does not contest that it infringes under this claim construction?

Sony:
3. Whether the judgment that claims 14-17 of the '333 patent are valid should be reversed, where:
   a. the only asserted difference between the claims and the AT&T joystick involves whether the joystick discloses "rotating-mass actuators" and rotate an eccentric mass 360 degrees;
   b. the jury's validity verdict was based on Immersion's faulty construction of the language, "a plurality of rotating-mass actuators to create in combination a vibration" as requiring actuators that rotate an eccentric mass 360 degrees, as well as rotating mass that create vibration; and
   c. with the claims properly interpreted, the AT&T joystick discloses a plurality of rotating-mass actuators to create in combination a vibration.

Immersion
3. Whether the judgment that asserted claims of the '333 patent are not invalid in light of the AT&T joystick must be affirmed, where substantial evidence supports the jury's verdict of no invalidity because the jury could reasonably conclude that the AT&T joystick is ground-based  force feedback device, not a "rotating-mass actuator" device as described and claimed in the patent?

Sony:
4.    Whether the district court's finding of no inequitable conduct should be reversed or remanded where (1) the district court applied the wrong standard for determining materiality; and (2) after Immersion accused Sony of infringing the '214 and during prosecution of the related '333 patent, Sony showed the Cyberman prior art device to Immersion executives and shared Sony's belief that the Cyberman invalidated the claims, yet Immersion executive who was in a position to contact the Logitech Company that produced Cyberman because of his relationship with that company and was involved in the prosecution of the '333 patent chose to do nothing?

Immersion:
4. Whether the district Court did not abuse its discretion in rejecting, following a bench trial, Sony's inequitable conduct defense to the '333 patent, where the court found that (1) the Immersion representative Sony accused of committing inequitable conduct did not intend to deceive the Patent Office; (2) the Immersion representative was not aware of the information alleged to be material prior art; and (3) Sony failed to prove that the alleged prior art was material where it offered no evidence of non-cumulativeness?

Sony:
5. If this Court affirms either the judgment of infringement of the '213 patent or the judgment of validity and no inequitable conduct of the '333 patent (but not both), whether Sony would be entitled to a new trial on damages where: (1) the amount of damages for infringement of either patent alone would be different than the amount of damages for infringement of both patents; and (2) it is impossible to discern the appropriate amount of damages for infringement of either patent alone from the jury verdict?

Immersion:
5. Whether the district court's permanent injunction should be affirmed, where: (1) Sony does not properly challenge the scope of the permanent injunction on appeal; and (2) the scope of the injunction was supported by the district court's finding that Sony continues to release new infringing products?

Sony:
6. The district court's injunction enjoins Sony from using and selling "the infringing Playstation system, including its Playstation consoles, Dualshock controllers and those games found by the jury to infringe." Sony does not believe that the district court's injunction is overbroad, but raises the last issue out of an abundance of caution. In the event that the district court's injunction is interpreted to be coincident in breadth with Immersion's requires for an injunction, whether the injunction is overly broad where: (1) Immersion contended at trial that the asserted claims were infringed only by the combination of a console, a controller, and a video game used together in a specific manner; (2) Immersion sought an injunction enjoining Sony from selling and using the individual components of the system, independent of their inclusion in an adjudicated infringing system; and (3) the district court, in discussing the permanent injunction (albeit several months before it issued the permanent injunction), stated that, to avoid the injunction, Sony would have to "remov[e] the software library" in the console and "disable[e] the vibration function on the controllers" and "disabl[e] the vibration function" in the games, when adopting any one of these three options by itself would result in a combination that does not infringe the asserted system claims?


Analysis Of Issues (Note: I'm not a lawyer just someone with shares in the company)

Issue 1 is the JMOL (Judgment as a Matter of Law) ruling. Sony asked the court to rule that Sony's Playstation system didn't infringe on certain claims as JMOL.

My analysis is that the court will affirm. I noticed in a few appeals that I read that when the court rules as a matter of law, that the ruling gets reversed if there are complex issues that would require testimony, expert witnesses and the like to decide – in that case, the appeals court rules that JMOL is not appropriate.

However, in the reply brief, Sony spends a significant amount of time on this and Sony makes a slightly different argument. From Sony's reply brief:

"Dr. Colgate, admitted that, in the Sony system, not all of the perceived vibrations are decoupled. This is a legal argument, which rests on proper claim construction.
In response, however, Immersion argues, that "substantial evidence supports the jury's verdict." But Immersion's reliance on the substantial evidence standard is misplaced. Instead, this court must determine whether claims 41-46, 49, 50, 53 and 54 of the '213 patent require that the frequency and magnitude of the perceived vibrations – including both the perceived vibrations caused by the motors (i.e., the underlying vibrations) and the perceived sensations created by periodically turning on and off the motors – must be independent and decoupled. This is a question of claim construction, which this Court reviews de novo. "

Sony's first mistake in their description of what the claims must show: Sony writes that both the perceived vibrations caused by the motor (i.e., the underlying vibrations) and the perceived sensations caused by periodically turning on and off the motors must be independent and decoupled. In other words, Sony is stating that both (Perceived Vibrations) and (Perceived Sensation) must be independent and decoupled.

But is that what the claim states and is it even possible to decouple the control of the perception of vibration and how we perceive a sensation?  I think Sony's lawyer became confused when writing the above. What is decoupled is control over the magnitude and frequency. In other words, if the game controller issues a very fast series of pulses, all of which are done within 1/10 of a second, the person will perceive a fast jolt or pulse. Immersion's addition is adding a method that allows control of the magnitude of the jolt. So, to make it simple, Immersion's patent allows the ability to create jolts. The magnitude of the jolt is decoupled from how often the jolt occurs. Before Immersion, you could create jolts as often as was desired. Immersion patented the ability to not only create the jolts but to control how strong the jolts were with a simple technology.

Sony goes on to write that in Sony's PlayStation, the magnitude and frequency of the underlying vibrations are not decoupled as required in the claims. However, IMO, that is a factual matter for the jury to determine.

If the Appeals court looks at it the way I do, they will decide that the claims mean that the accused device must contain at least one vibrotactile unit and there must be the ability to control with a computer both the frequency of the jolts and magnitude of them. The control of the frequency of the jolts and the control of the magnitude do the jolts must be decoupled. If they decide that way, then deciding whether or not Sony's PlayStation infringes is a matter of "fact" for the jury to decide.  JMOL was not appropriate in that case.

Therefore, this decision should get affirmed (IMO).

Issue 2 is about claim 7 of the '213 patent and the claim construction related to it.
Immersion writes that Sony challenges the district courts construction for the final limitation:
"Transmitting said activating signals to said mass-moving actuators for individually activating each of said mass-moving actuators to produce a complex tactile sensation as a result of varying the frequency and amplitude of said vibration."

Sony thinks that the claim construction should limit claim 7 to require that each actuators varies the frequency and amplitude of it's vibration.

The '213 claim 7 follows:

"7. A system for providing a tactile sensation to a sensing body part, said system comprising:

means for generating said variable state signal;

a plurality of mass-moving actuators, each of said actuators comprising a shaft and an eccentric mass mounted on said shaft for transmitting vibrations to said sensing body part, each of said mass moving actuators rotating said associated shaft; and

a signal processor for receiving and interpreting said state signal to produce multiple activating signals and transmitting said activating signals to said mass-moving actuators for individually activating each of said mass-moving actuators to produce a complex tactile sensation as a result of varying the frequency and amplitude of said vibration. "

Looking at 7 and parsing it, it does not say that each actuator must vary the frequency and amplitude. Basically, "said vibration" which is the end result of the multiple activating signals and mass-moving actuators produces the vibration of varying frequency and vibration.

Therefore, I think this decision on issue 2 is affirmed.

Issue 3 is about claims 14-17 of the'333 patent are valid. Sony basically claims that the AT&T joystick invalidates Immersion's patent. However, the AT&T joystick pushes against the ground and does not produce vibration based on a rotating eccentric mass.  Sony writes, "c. with the claims properly interpreted, the AT&T joystick discloses a plurality of rotating-mass actuators to create in combination a vibration." Looking at the way the AT&T joystick "rotates" and how it imparts vibration, I think that the Judge's Markman ruling on the language is reasonable and the Jury's decision is reasonable.

I think on Issue 3, the court Affirms.

Issue 4 is the inequitable conduct ruling. On this issue, there was a bench trial allowing the judge to take evidence. The evidence provided by Sony was very little and comprised mostly of the idea that Dr. Rosenberg should have notified the Patent office of certain claims made by Sony. Dr. Rosenberg was not the author of the patent but even so, Sony said Dr. Rosenberg had the duty to investigate Sony's claims further and find evidence about whether or not there was other Cyberman prior art that existed. However, Dr. Rosenberg is not required by law to do that and was not being deceptive when he didn't do it. Sony lacked evidence to prove inequitable conduct and the Judge did have a bench trial on this, I think Immersion is safe and the decision is affirmed.

Issue 5 is about possible rulings by the appeals court and how the permanent injunction would be constructed and enforced. Sony would like the court to rule that if they took only one action, such as not sell an infringing controller that this should be sufficient for the permanent injunction. However, this is inconsistent with the Jury ruling. Each game sold is part of the infringing game system and many PS2s were sold that had the infringing controller. Therefore, every game sold that could be used for the PS2 increases the infringement. IMO, the Appeals court does not provide any guidance to the district judge on the permanent injunction that will be very harmful to Immersion.

Where I may have went wrong in my analysis:

1) I'm not a lawyer and my knowledge is based on reading a few dozen appeals that I scanned some of which I researched in more depth.

2) In two of the appeals I read, I think the appeals court made a mistake in their analysis – which means that they could rule differently than I think is logical – it happened two times that I found in my own limited research.

Impressions:

We are lucky that Sony was poorly represented at least from a "brief writing" point of view. Sony often uses the term that the court "MUST" do X If... or the Court SHOULD rule Y because....

If I'm an appeals court judge, I would not want to be told what I must or should do as it would be assumed that I would do what should be or must be done. What such statements won't do is to cause the Appeals court to rule in error. But they will challenge the court to examine carefully and somewhat skeptically everything someone tells them they must do or should do.

Sony's first brief was not well organized from a logic point of view. Sony's reply brief was much better organized. Both of Sony's briefs appeared to be very arrogant in tone.

Immersion's brief was well written, logical and easy to read. The logic in Immersion's brief as to why Sony made the mistakes was straight forward and easy to understand and in many cases showed that Sony left out of their brief information that completely contradicted Sony's points. In addition, Sony's briefs don't describe the technology in an understandable way, Immersion's brief does.

The tone of the brief or the fact that one is more logically organized than another won't be the deciding factor but every bit helps. The judges and clerks are only human. They must make decisions every day. Sometimes they make mistakes. Writing a brief logically means that the court is less likely to misunderstand something and make a mistake because of that.

Everything IMO, [email protected]

Immersion v Sony, Does Sony Lawyer Forget Arguments During Appeal?

Below are posted significant excerpts from the actual court proceedings where Sony presented their appeal to the appeals court. Some time stamps are included to help anyone who would like to listen find the comment. The recording is posted on the www.fedcir.gov web site at http://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/oralarguments/mp3/05-1227.mp3

2:58
Appeals Court Judge:
".... this is a legal argument that rests on proper claim construction, even though you are not challenging the claim construction, and I don't think you cited any cases for this notion, and I wonder if you have any?"

3:10
Sony lawyer: "Your honor the answer to that is let me clarify our position. Our position is that we are not challenging the claim construction of tactile sensation. But given the gloss that Immersion is placing on it – Immersion is saying that you don't look at the underlying vibration. You look at the dominant vibration. The fact is that Mr. Chu I assume is going to use that chart in which he says lets look at the series of impulses lets ignore the underlying vibration – that is a claim construction issue. The question is under the proper claim construction is it proper to ignore the underlying vibration. To that extent it is a "de novo" question of law and only to that extent. "

(Clarification, Immersion contends that barely perceptible vibrations – the underlying vibration should be ignored and that it is the intended tactile sensation that is created by the device that is being patented. Note: The lawyer didn't answer the question about citing cases.)

3:54:
Appeals Court Judge
"But should not one of the parties have called this matter to the attention of the trial court at the initial stage of the Markman, I mean isn't this therefore in your view of the world, it is really a matter of claim construction. Why this issue wasn't resolved in the context of the Markman?"

Sony Lawyer, "Your honor, it is not resolved.
There is another issue that is not resolved and that is the rotating issue. The court declined to interpret it. The answer is this particular matter was not interpreted by the district court other than to say that the court agreed with with Immersion in terms that it looks to the dominant vibrations and in fact there is no discussion of decoupling at all in the courts 50b decision. The answer is that this was presented, it was debated by the parties and for whatever reason there is no resolution of this question. And to that extent, this is a de novo question of law and that is all we meant in our brief."

(Markman hearings are used to interpret claims, determine the scope of the claim, decide on the ordinary meaning of some words in the patents and put them in a form that the Jury can understand and make determinations on.

In the question of whether the underlying vibrations were important was left to the jury to decide. Sony wanted the Judge to rule on the meaning of vibration in ways that might have been helpful to Sony but the judge declined to do so. For the rotating issue, Sony wanted the judge to rule in certain ways to help them define an AT&T Joy Stick patent as "rotating". The AT&T Joy stick had a base that pivots or rotates right and left in order to orient it such that force could be applied in certain directions. The base cannot pivot or rotate 360 degrees. It simply turns the base right or left to orient a force in the correct direction. Immersion's technology is based on small rotating motors which spin an offset mass. The judge declined to rule on the meaning of rotating in this context.)

12:24
Appeals Court Judge:
"Let me ask you this quick question about claim 7. Immersion says, as I understand it,  that nothing in the claim language requires that each actuator create a vibration, with varying frequency and amplification and amplitude. Is that correct? "

Sony lawyer, "The only thing that is correct is that's what they say. I disagree with their position."

Appeals Court Judge:
"Because?"

12:46
Sony lawyer:
"For two reasons, and let me start with the second reason.
If you look at the origin of claim 7 – the clearest prosecution history establishes that we, I submit are right, um, the prosecution history shows that patent Claim 7 evolved from application claim 10 and application claim 1 which were ultimately were combined and in combining them the applicant said I am adopting all of the limitations of claim 1. Claim 1 is significant because claim 1 said it called for an apparatus for providing a tactile sensation where each unit comprises, each unit comprises, ahh, and then it said a mass moving actuator for transmitting vibration, and so and so forth..., it used the same language which is in patent claim 7 and but it said it was for each unit. When they adopted, merged claim 1 into claim 10 and said we are adopting all limitations of claim 1 they are basically saying each unit has these limitations. And in fact if you look at the language of claim 7 the very last two words are 'said vibration' and the only antecedent for that is vibrations up in the upper part of the claim. And each one of those limitations talk about each of said actuators transmitting vibrations and each of said actuators coupled to said vibration – it takes it back to that early clause. It establishes I, I ah I  submit irresistibly that in fact you have got to have each unit performing the function, you can't merge the two, and in fact if you look at, and if you look at one of the claims, you will see claim 14 of the 333 patent, you will actually see that use the word vibration a combination in that case ah suggesting that in fact ah, they knew how to use the word combination when they wanted to use that word. "

(Interestingly the Sony lawyer never tells us what the first reason was even later in his rebuttal. IMO, the longer he spoke, the less understandable and disorganized his argument became. Did he forget what the first argument was and was it better than argument two?)

Other than the claim 7 argument during which Sony's lawyer appeared to forget what he was trying to say (maybe he didn't understand the argument either), Sony's main hope lies in whether or not the appeals court decides that the District Judge made a mistake in not defining to Sony's satisfaction "vibration" and "rotating". Should the district judge have better defined the terms vibrating and rotating during the Markman hearing?  The federal judge that made the decision didn't think so and Sony's argument about vibration and rotating didn't work well with the jury either. Will it work any better with the appeals court?

Current status of the case – waiting for the Appeals court to rule
If the appeals court rules against Sony, this could force Sony to stop selling the Playstation 2 and perhaps the Playstation 3 console, dual shock controllers and many Sony Games for Playstation. Oral arguments for the appeal were Oct 3. Next action of the court could be before the end of the year.

Note:  I believe that the transcription is accurate but caution readers to listen to the recording to verify and have included time stamps to make that easier. Everything in my opinion.

IMMR looks interesting here...  After that big gap up on the settlement with sony:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070302/immersion_mover.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070302/immersion_mover.html?.v=1)

IMMR has held up pretty well, and peaked its head above 9.10 short term resistance today.  Seems like a good low risk play, with a stop just below 8.80, risk on today's close would be 3.4%, with a first target of 9.90, although I think we could see the begining of a new uptrend here.

The first time I heard about IMMR was at TZOO's thread, when I read the following news and saw the video (http://www.travelzoo.com/media/):

• Travelzoo Unveils World's First Interactive Advertising Campaign in an Airport (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070709/nym089.html?.v=75)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jul 9)

Then I saw that Sony paid IMMR roughly $120 M in a patent infringement lawsuit:

«During the quarter, Immersion and Sony Computer Entertainment concluded their patent litigation at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit and entered into a new business agreement. In total, Immersion will receive a minimum of $152.2 million through the conclusion of the litigation and the new business agreement. Immersion has recorded $119.9 million of this sum as Litigation conclusions and patent license income, and $107,000 of this sum as revenue during the quarter, and will record $29.9 million as revenue and $2.3 million as interest income in future periods.»

Now I see that Nokia also licensed IMMR's technology:

• Nokia Licenses Immersion's VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback for Mobile Devices (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070702/20070702005273.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Jul 2)

And there's more like this ... now, because I live in Portugal, I don't have all that much respect for patents and intellectual property (my wife worked at Portugal's patents and trademarks registration agency, and it's a joke). When I say "respect", I mean that a business based on fighting intellectual property infringement and selling licenses simply wouldn't work here, because justice wouldn't be able, or it would take 10 years or more, to enforce penalties to those that didn't respect the intellectual property.

But I know that in the US investors go absolutely ga-ga over this type of business model. Why? Well, because, as you know much better than me, intellectual property rights are a fact and reality in the US and the courts really work. Why the love for the business model? Because of its extremely high net profit margin. Look here, taken out of IMMR's 10-Q:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38920;image)

Wasn't it Buffet that said that the best business is to have a royalty on the growth of others?

Well, there's a lot more to say about IMMR, but the general idea is that the technology is awesome and huge corporations like Sony and Nokia are willing to pay for it. Moreover, the business model is based on selling a license and receive some money for each unit sold (I don't know how much at this point).

The company is a $490 M market cap and has $137 M in cash and almost no debt. The chart is extremely bullish (perhaps too bullish), but that's for a very good reason.

I still can't derive my valuation model for IMMR, because the big changes just happened, and the future won't be similar to the past. I need at least two more quarters to see the fundamental picture more clearly. So, my two primary motivations for buying IMMR are:

1) The technology is awesome and a true innovation, as we've seen at TZOO's video. And the touchscreen technologies are in high demand now;
2) The business model is one of those that usually boasts an extremely high net profit margin. The company may have, say, just $30 M or $50 M in revenues and still be worth more than a $1 B, because it's almost all profits.

So I say go for it, regardless of the chart being so overbought, since I feel the company is worth more than $1 B, and the current market cap is $490 M.

The trading plan is:

Buy IMMR, 6.66% of capital as always.

Considering IMMR's business model ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38920;image)

... and the licensing deal made with Nokia ...

• Nokia Licenses Immersion's VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback for Mobile Devices (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070702/20070702005273.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Jul 2)

... I would say IMMR will earn a % of each Nokia mobile phone sold using IMMR's technology.

There are about 1 billion mobile phones sold each year worldwide and Nokia has a 36% market share of the global market, so that means 360 million mobile phones a year. The average selling price of each phone is 89 €, that is, about $122.

The Court said IMMR should receive 1.37% for each unit sold by Sony using IMMR's technology:

«The Court further ordered Sony Computer Entertainment to pay us a compulsory license fee at the rate of 1.37%, the ratio of the verdict amount to the amount of sales of infringing products, effective as of July 1, 2004 and through the date of Judgment. On February 9, 2005, the Court ordered that Sony Computer Entertainment provide us with sales data 15 days after the end of each quarter and clarified that Sony Computer Entertainment will make the ordered payment 45 days after the end of the applicable quarter. Sony Computer Entertainment has made quarterly payments to us pursuant to the Court's orders.»

Say IMMR and Nokia licensing deal says Nokia must pay IMMR 1% royalty on all sales of devices using IMMR's technology and the technology gets to be used in say, half of the mobile phones sold by Nokia. That means 0.01*(360,000,000/2)*$122 = $219.6 M.

From this number I would say that Net Income for IMMR would be at least $150 M, and that should warrant a market cap of at least $3 B.

IMMR's market cap is $533 M now.

But of course, there are several risks to this outcome. Instead of 1%, the deal may be for just 0.1%. Or Nokia perhaps won't implement the technology. We don't know, but you can see the potential and the risks.

But, there isn't just Nokia in the world. IMMR already has Sony and Nokia (and some more minor players), but it is also making deals with BMW and others.

IMMR has 600 technology related patents and is determined in defending them, receiving money for its intellectual property.

I'll continue holding and studying IMMR.

*DJ Immersion Cut To Underweight By Thomas Weisel >IMMR

.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 16, 2007 07:04 ET (11:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 07 04 AM EDT 07-16-07

**Brought to you by Scottrader, a product of Scottrade Inc** More bad news.

Does this news bring a stock down almost 15%  ??? >:(

Jakky, don't like starting off on a 6% loss  :'(

Amarens

QuoteThomas Weisel Partners analyst Kevin Hunt said the shares are pricing in "unachievable" growth opportunities beyond his already bullish assumptions and downgraded the stock to "Underweight" from "Market Weight."

He had "bullish assumptions" coupled with a "market weight". Now that stock was up a lot he downgrades it.

IMMR was down 16% yesterday because it had been up over 100% in less than two months. Another reason is I bought it, and stocks always go down immediately after I buy them ;D

Six months from now, yesterday's drop will be barely seen in the chart, as the company will be worth $1 B, that is, $40. At least this is my view of the fundamentals.

I'll continue holding IMMR, despite the short term weakness.

The Main Portfolio is already losing 16.5% in IMMR, and is only holding the stock for three days.

It's always the same problem with high flying stocks, when one waits for a correction, it never comes, and when one buys, there's a correction.

I saw the little movie about the company's technology on its website (http://progressive.playstream.com/immersion/progressive/techcloseup.swf) and I must say that I wasn't all that impressed. But then I think that Sony paid $152 M for being able to use it and I go wow :o

I wonder how many companies will license IMMR's technology in the future. For the short term, I would really like to know the details of the deal with Nokia:

Nokia Licenses Immersion's VibeTonz Tactile Feedback (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.96ce518e21804810cbeae358468f2f8d45a0889c43f937c25da1bd1915c0cc36)

I'm going to investigate this issue for the upcoming updates (checking if Nokia said something about it), in the meantime I'll keep holding IMMR.

In at $16.8. Convinced my wife to buy.  :)

Very nice company ...

for now we could see another low probably around 15.8 will be a good buy for me ...

It's aunbelievable too see a stock go down 16% just because of a stupid downgrade  ???

I am not sure - is Dassault Systems  a licensee of IMMR? They partnered with an India PLM solution developer:

http://www.tenlinks.com/news/PR/eds_tech...

from yahoo! message board:
CHASE IS STILL HERE! I subscript to this financial newsletter and they are very high on IMMR; however, here is their approach for trading IMMR.

Why We Sold 50% Of Immersion

Following a question we received about our decision to sell half of our Immersion (Nasdaq: IMMR) position, here's the thinking behind that and an important insight into our small-caps investment strategy.

Question:

Hi, Karim... first of all thanks for the great newsletter. I look forward to all the great insight that you and your team have to offer. I was wondering why you suggested that we sell 50% of our position in IMMR if you believe its future is bright. I am a member of the Oxford Club, (which is how I learned about XPR) and they usually advocate not selling our winners unless the fundamentals change, or if we hit a trailing-stop. This is not the case obviously with IMMR, since it seems to have quite a bit of momentum lately. I know there is nothing wrong with taking a profit, but why sell if there is still room to grow and the future of the company is so bright? By the way, I was able to buy it $9.77 when I subscribed and sold half my position today, at $19.59, locking in a 101% gain in two months. Thanks in advance for the response and keep up the great work!

P.

Response:

Great question. And nice gain, by the way. I employ several exit strategies. Each one will depend on the situation. That's what makes us very different from just about any other service, including the Oxford Club, our sister organization. Our editors are professional traders, so we try to employ our trading philosophy in every pick we make. Some picks are longer-term, but our mandate is, as our name suggests, to give readers "accelerated profits" on a regular basis.

On Immersion, I do think the company has an extremely bright future. But there are several reasons for the suggestion to take your original investment off the table. First, I don't know how much people had on the table! Some members have written in, saying they've made more than $50,000 on the trade - and still maintaining a huge position. It's critical that you are never too heavy in one position - regardless of how great the potential is. It can be disastrous - an expensive lesson that I have no wish to repeat, or have you learn.

Second, Immersion's share price raced ahead of its fundamentals. When shares touched $20.68, the company was trading at more than 15 times sales. The only saving grace is its huge cash position and the continued signing of new contracts. Now the company has to show that it can monetize this great opportunity.

Third, there was a huge short position in the shares. I believe what we saw as momentum was a combination of good news (Nokia, Russell 3000) and a short squeeze. In addition, the stock received huge coverage from several news organizations like CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters and other investment professionals. This was a perfect storm of good news, which added fuel to the fire. The daily volume now exceeds one million shares - but we still remember when a high volume day was 100,000 shares.

Fourth, we expected the rally. We issued buy ratings, even when shares were at $10 and $12 ("if you don't own any shares, you should"). But it occurred too quickly and with such explosiveness that the stock was in danger of imploding because of momentum players who buy with recklessness and sell with the same recklessness. Your exit point is a perfect example - the shares fell by 20% in a matter of two days and are now consolidating in the mid teens.

Finally, I would like us to hold a position in Immersion for the very long-term - with NO risk. And the only way to accomplish this is to have ONLY the profits at risk, and not our principal.


Good trading,


Sentiment : Strong Buy

IMMR=TouchSense Technology = great future:
http://www.thehindu.com/seta/2007/07/19/stories/2007071950021500.htm

Thanks for your posts and investigation nexta :)

Nokia issued the same press release IMMR published about their licensing deal, so, no financial details were disclosed.

TouchSense (R) is a great name and technology:

• Immersion Introduces TouchSense(R) Tactile Feedback for Touchscreen-Based Portable Devices (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070523/20070523005428.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed, May 23)

I can really see the future of mobile devices, no keypad, just the screen, to save space. That's the way to have a mobile phone where one can watch TV, for example, and for it not to be too big. And what about those Palm's and Blackberries? I never enjoyed that small pen thing ... they will work much better with IMMR's technology.

So, get up and purchase a license. The price is only $1 per device sold ;D

(I don't know if this is the actual price, in Sony's litigation case the price used was 1.37% of the revenues).

I'll keep holding IMMR, no doubt the good news will keep flowing, and there's absolutely no need for dilution, because the company now has a cash balance of $137.5 M.

Last year there were 1billion (10^9) cell phones sold World-wide. That's merely enough for India and definitely not enough for China alone (well, toddlers are not yet up to speed using a phone :)
Nokia has ~40% of the business. Truth is only the high end phones will have the feature, but those are at least 10% of the total share, which is still not bad and can bring Immersion a hefty profit.

Quote from: berloga on July 19, 2007, 08:55:56 AM
Last year there were 1billion (10^9) cell phones sold World-wide. That's merely enough for India and definitely not enough for China alone (well, toddlers are not yet up to speed using a phone :)
Nokia has ~40% of the business. Truth is only the high end phones will have the feature, but those are at least 10% of the total share, which is still not bad and can bring Immersion a hefty profit.

I agree berloga.

Here's another use for Immersion's TouchSense technology, slot machines:

http://investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=45713869

(it's old news, but helps to understand the potential of the technology)

Now I'm wondering if perhaps sometime in the future we won't have websites also with this touchscreen capability, say, you want to go to the Main Portfolio page, and instead of moving your mouse, you just touch the website's button. I don't know how useful could that be, but it would be cool  :)

I'll keep holding IMMR, starting to come back from the slump.

TouchSense Technology will be indispensable in medical science, treatment, help for handicapped people .... everywhere

nice:

It is evident from the weekly chart that Immersion Corp. (NASDAQ:IMMR) traded within a rising price channel between 2004 and April 2007. We see that the stock commenced a rally within the channel in July 2006 and subsequently broke out upwards in mid April 2007, after the company announced that it had agreed to settle the patent litigation with Sony Computer Services and entered into a new long-term business agreement to explore the use of IMMR's proprietary technology for its products. The stock's phenomenal rise since then to the $20.50 levels in a matter of just four months has been supported by the launch of a series of new products and the addition of mobile bell-weather Nokia to its list of mobile OEMs (LG and Samsung are IMMR's customers) and licensed its technology to two game accessories manufacturers (Refer other Significant events). That the company continues to develop and launch new surgical stimulation systems and seeks new applications like navigation systems for deploying its technology is a huge positive. IMMR also is expected to benefit from the launch of 10 mobile phones with its technology in H2 2007. IMMR's revenues should also get a boost from the fact that revenues from Sony start flowing in from Q2 2007 and those from Nokia in the Q3 2007. The stock's 19% plunge over two days in mid July, was triggered, apparently by an analyst downgrade. This sharp fall has served as a correction for the overbought condition in the daily and weekly RSI. On the daily chart, we see that the stock took support at $15.75 levels and has resumed the uptrend. As the $15.75 levels constitutes a strong support, we believe that the downside on the stock is limited to the said levels. Given all of the positives listed above, we believe that an up move to the $19.3 levels is quite likely in the short-term. The company is scheduled to announce Q2 results on 2nd August.

http://www.palmaresearch.com/Contents/IMMR.asp?Phase=u&TempTicker=IMMR&sid=b042c413-3efe-44a9-a08b-04abd6e69e17#

Quote from: Garoh on July 18, 2007, 03:18:58 PM
Very nice company ...

for now we could see another low probably around 15.8  will be a good buy for me ...

It's aunbelievable too see a stock go down 16% just because of a stupid downgrade  ???

La-onda  I think they took it from my post  ;D

Thanks for the information la-onda :) I wonder where they got the following:

QuoteIMMR also is expected to benefit from the launch of 10 mobile phones with its technology in H2 2007.

I didn't see it in any press release or SEC form, but I sure welcome it. Well, I guess Nokia wouldn't license the technology and then not use it in their mobile phones. Since IMMR's license model is based on a "per unit sold" basis, this seems like terrific news (but we need to confirm it over the next few updates).

IMMR is about the future, not the present, but the future is closer everyday, and the market always looks ahead. I'll keep holding IMMR.

Sold SILC today with an automatic stop at $20. Can you believe it, the thing opened at $24 and sold out below $20? Don't regret it - learned the same good lesson I saw before in GIGM, SILC and others: +10% in pre-open, sell and take a break. Can pick it up later if you want.

Used the money to buy IMMR at $17.63 today. Good pick David!

Driver assistance system combines image, navigation


Christoph Hammerschmidt 
EE Times Europe 
07/23/2007 10:49 AM 
MUNICH, Germany — Siemens VDO is developing a driver assistance function that aims at preventing motorists driving inadvertently against the traffic on motorways. The system combines input signals from a camera and navigation systems.

The system consists of a camera placed near the rear view mirror, a computer running an image processing software to recognize the traffic sign and a navigation system. In order to recognize that the driver is about to enter a motorway in the wrong direction, the navigation system has to provide data that are exact enough to identify the lane which the driver is using. In the case of a wrong turn, it can warn the driver through a warning sound, by displaying a message on a head-up display or by haptic warning signals such as shaking the gas pedal or the steering wheel.

The research complements Volkswagen's catalog of camera-based driving functions presented recently during a congress on automotive electronics. A Siemens VDO spokesperson explained the project is still in the research phase. He expects, however, the next vehicle generation to be equipped with the system.

It´s about IMMR technology

I saw the little movie about the company's technology on its website and I must say that I wasn't all that impressed.

Hi David,
I AM impressed... It is not  touch screen technology, but touchSENSE technology - you will FEEL something by touching screen or whatever. And IMMR has licence for touchSENSE and probably is only one with such licence on the world  - I hope so  :)

Best of the Best: Today's Top Investment Ideas
Immersion: Toby Smith's play on touch screen technology    Digg It! 
Friday, 20 July 2007 
"The launch of Apple's iPhone, will lead to an even-greater focus on touch-screen technology," notes Toby Smith, editor of Changewave Investing.

He explains, "There's one company that owns patents to tactile-feedback technology that will make these interfaces feel more connected." Here he looks at a recent recommendation, Immersion (NASDAQ: IMMR), a company involved in "haptics" – the science of touch.

"If you're a gadget geek, you certainly have had a chance to operate a Palm device or Pocket PC that accepts screen inputs from a stylus or finger presses, but I'm talking about the next generation here.

"After people get their hands on the iPhone and begin to control all its functions with simple finger gestures, they are going to want more devices that use the technology. This trend is showing up in other phones like LG's Prada model and even Microsoft's touch-screen table computer prototype -- so this trend is just getting started.

"One of the things that will make the touch screen really take off, though, is its ability to not only touch these seamless screens to make inputs to your new devices -- but to feel something while you're doing it. There's one company that owns patents to this tactile-feedback technology that will make these interfaces feel more connected is Immersion.

"Immersion's goal is to incorporate a third sense into your digital technologies by adding feel to sight and sound. In the last 14 years IMMR has earned more than 600 patents around the world, many of which fall into the category of 'haptics' -- the science of touch.

"The company is the leading IP owner in digital haptics, recreating the feeling of a keyboard key being touched and pushed down on a touch screen through vibration. Appropriately enough, Immersion calls its technology for providing tactile feedback 'TouchSense.'

"The bottom line is that the players who want the best digital touch-screen experience will have to come to Immersion and license their patents. Soon, companies selling billions of digital devices such as full-screen mobile phones, GPS units, MP3 players, game controllers and remote controls will be paying Immersion a royalty for each sale.

"Touch-screen technology will be the 'next big thing' for the latest cell phones and smartphones. And I believe that the iPhone has some Immersion technology inside to help with the feel of hitting the keys while typing on its virtual keyboard.

"This is a $20 million sales company that should be at least double its sales every year during the next two to three years. Toss in a six times sales multiple, and I anticipate a $600 million to $700 million market cap just on its TouchSense patent portfolio.

"Most of their revenue currently comes from the video game controller world, but that's really just the tip of the iceberg. Touch-based machine control is a big wave of growth we want to ride, and Immersion is the best way to play."

Have a nice day
Eva

...and BMW...
http://www.siemensvdo.com/press/releases/chassisandcarbody/2007/SV-200703-001-en.htm

Thanks for those three articles related to IMMR nexta, we need all the information we can get ... because financial details are scarce.

I've been thinking about the 1.37% royalty guideline that came out of the court trial with Sony, but numbers can be substantially different. If we're talking 1% and Nokia's phones have an average selling price of $100, IMMR may earn $1 for each mobile phone sold using its technology. Since Nokia sells about 400 million mobile phones a year, we could be talking about, say, $200 M in revenue (if half of the mobile phones use IMMR's technology). That would put the company's market cap at no less than $2 B, because almost all of those $200 M would be profits (well, not all because of taxes).

It's hard to figure out the future fundamentals of IMMR, but certainly the future is much different from the past, to the better.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

IMO - no in distant future, but just now:

A Sony representative confirmed on Thursday that controller rumble will make its way to the PS3 for the first time, this after several lawsuits surrounding the technology.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,134511-pg,1/article.html

I think, they mean lawsuit vs. IMMR

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/archives/116859.asp

Very interesting blog - MSFT is jeopardy for IMMR:

June 2007

Microsoft sues Immersion over Sony agreement

INTERVIEW-Immersion sees Nokia deal adding from 3rd quarter
Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:00PM EDT


By Vivek Seal

BANGALORE, July 19 (Reuters) - Immersion Corp. (IMMR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) chief executive said the company's licensing deal with Nokia Corp. (NOK1V.HE: Quote, Profile, Research) would add to revenue from the third quarter, but shot down reports on a pact for the iPhone.

Immersion's technology simulates a keystroke-like response in touchscreen-based devices and there have been media reports that Apple Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) may have licensed it for the iPhone that combines cell phone, music player and Web browser.

"We have no agreement with iPhone," Chief Executive Victor Viegas said in a telephone interview from the company's San Jose, California headquarters.

Since the launch of the iPhone, Immersion shares have risen 44 percent to a life-high of $20.68 last Friday.

The shares fell almost 16 percent on Monday after brokerage firm Thomas Weisel Partners downgraded the company citing high stock price. In afternoon trade on Thursday, the shares were trading at $17.09 on the Nasdaq.

Earlier this month, Nokia acquired the license to use Immersion's VibeTonz tactile-feedback technology to use in its handsets sold worldwide.

The Nokia deal provides for annual minimum payments from the No.1 mobile handset maker for the initial integration of the technology into handsets, Viegas said.

Nokia has not yet started shipping phones with Immersion's technology, Viegas said.

The deal with Nokia follows similar contracts with other handset makers such as South Korea's LG Electronics Inc. (066570.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research).

PROFITABILITY THIS YEAR

The company, which gets about 50 percent of revenue from providing simulation technology for medical and surgical training, expects the mobile segment to make an impact on its results beginning 2009.

The mobile segment contributed just about $100,000 to the company's 2007 first-quarter revenue of $6.4 million.

Immersion's technology is also licensed to game consoles including Sony Corp.'s (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) PlayStation and PlayStation 2, Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) Gamecube and the Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Xbox and Xbox 360.

Viegas said he expects Sony to launch tactile capability soon on PlayStation 3.

In March, Sony had settled a patent dispute with Immersion and licensed the technology for about $150 million in cash.

The settlement helped Immersion to post a net profit in the first quarter after posting losses for several quarters.

Viegas said the company expects to utlize that cash to buy back stock and launch new products. He also reiterated Immersion would become profitable "some time this year."

PATENT DISPUTES

Viegas said Nintendo could have infringed some of Immersion's intellectual property with the launch of Wii as they have not entered into any licensing agreement for the top-selling console.

"We have not communicated, disclosed or discussed that

(infringement) situation. We are looking at our options including working with Nintendo," Viegas said.

Immersion is also facing a lawsuit filed by Microsoft last month. Microsoft claims that its video-gaming sublicense agreement with Immersion entitles it to a percentage of any settlement amount with Sony.

But Viegas said Immersion did not owe Microsoft any money as the Sony settlement was as per a court order.

"If we had settled with Sony ... an out of court settlement ... we would have been obligated to pay Microsoft some money."

((Editing by Anil Kumar; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780; outside U.S. +91 80 4135 5800)) Keywords: IMMERSION INTERVIEW/

(C) Reuters 2007. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution ofReuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expresslyprohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuterssphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group ofcompanies around the world.nBNG142333

© Reuters 2007. All rights reserved.

Thanks for your work in IMMR nexta :)

I think the key part of this latest article is the following:

«The deal with Nokia follows similar contracts with other handset makers such as South Korea's LG Electronics Inc. (066570.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research).»

The problem is I can't find information for the specifics of these deals either, not even the press releases. No information on the 10-Q or 10-K either.

There are some bearish sentences in that interview, for example:

Quote"We have no agreement with iPhone," Chief Executive Victor Viegas said in a telephone interview from the company's San Jose, California headquarters.

We didn't expect one either.

QuoteThe company, which gets about 50 percent of revenue from providing simulation technology for medical and surgical training, expects the mobile segment to make an impact on its results beginning 2009.

Just 2009? Somewhat late, given the company's current market cap of $445 M.

QuoteHe also reiterated Immersion would become profitable "some time this year."

Sometime this year means the next quarterly earnings release will show a loss.

The basis for my investment in IMMR is the fact that the company now has a very strong balance sheet (due to the settlement with Sony), so probably there won't be any dilution, and eventually, probably in 2009, the company will report very strong profits, because it will earn something for each mobile phone sold in the world (from Nokia, LG and Samsumg) using its technology - I figure it will be about $1 for unit sold.

Between now and then probably there will be some more good news (other applications and sectors for the technology), so I think the stock should rise. But I'm afraid, in fact I'm absolutely certain now that I'm losing 14% in IMMR, that I bought the stock somewhat expensive in relation to what it is known now. I'll probably experience some more pain here, as the good news of the future are, at least partially, priced in.

I hesitate but I'll keep holding IMMR some more time, I need to think and investigate more about this stock.

Hi David, thanks for your work.

I agree with your opinions, interview from 19.7.07 is bearish, but I am quite satisfied with answers  CO IMMR - he doesn´t look like a liar or pumper.

to iPhone:
3SOF realy didn´t expect any contract IMMR*iPhone, but on the false rumour about agreement with iP Apple jumped IMMR up over 20 USD/share, just when we have bought it...  it´s because CO disclaimed it in interview.

Here is big and risky volatility. I hope, PPS will rise with more news about their technology, which is useful in the wide area and which is not sci-fi in the present.

just fyi:
IMMR: Short Interest UP 104.1% to 4.9M in Jul 2007
Tuesday , July 24, 2007 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) INCREASED 104.1% to 4,912,526 shares for the month ended mid-July, 2007.

SYMBOL     JUNE            JULY          CHANGE       %CHANGE        DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
IMMR    2,407,107       4,912,526      +2,505,419      +104.08%           3

Based on IMMR's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,019,010, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Nothing new to say about IMMR except that bears love to short a stock that has been going up, instead of the ones that are going down. A high short interest will probably help the stock move higher or sustain a possible additional fall.

I don't know about today, the open is setting up to be pretty ugly, we'll see where it closes.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

There are 4.9 million IMMR shares shorted:

IMMR: Short Interest UP 104.1% to 4.9M in Jul 2007 (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.c9bc7106ff5c844159d5fe718b1b3940f7762ce704a647fa6b694b91a5ee55bb)

However, IMMR isn't the best stock to be short, since yesterday it didn't fell all that much. Of course, one day doesn't mean anything and the stock still went down 2.8%, which isn't nice for the bulls like me, but ... a momentum stock like IMMR should have fallen 5% plus yesterday to be "right" from a bear's perspective. They should buy to cover all the way back to $20-$21.

I'll continue holding IMMR.

IMMR's relative strength on Thursday really didn't mean anything, since the stock went down 4.66% on Friday.

I've been thinking that the talks IMMR is having with Nintendo can be a big issue, because that WFii thing clearly uses the same technology we saw in the TZOO video, which belongs to IMMR.

It's a different technology from the tactile feedback and can also be an important revenue source in the future. Allowing machines to recognize our movements can be very useful. For example, I would like to turn up the sound on my TV making a gesture, not always looking for the damn remote control under the sofa. It could be useful for other things, like the Nintendo interactive games.

But just Nokia and its 400 million mobile phones sold per year, if they pay $1 for each one to IMMR, will make IMMR be worth at least $4 B, that is, 10 times more than what it is worth now.

My wife has a Motorola mobile phone with the numbers on the screen, but she doesn't like it much because she never knows if she really clicked the button or not ... Motorola needs IMMR's technology.

I'm aware that IMMR won't have many revenues and may even post a loss over the next few quarters, but two years from now it can be a company worth 10 times more than today, it has that potential. So I'll bear the short term risk, looking for the long term profit.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

IMMR will perhaps wait to touch the 50 days SMA support before bouncing back strongly. That moving average is standing at $14.62 today. I wish I had waited for a pullback before buying. But I would definitely buy it here, so I'll keep on holding.

IMMR's 2nd quarter earnings will be release next Thursday and expectations are quite low, just $7.9 M in revenue and EPS of -0.02:

TABLE: Confirmed Earnings Expected Thursday, Aug 2 (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.401432aebdde156e8b5dda1f332104ae58433bf6dd7fedc712e73021a098341c)

That's priced in, that is, nobody is looking at this quarter's earnings, but to the future. I wonder when will we get another bombastic news, like for example, Motorola licensing IMMR's touchsense  technology, or Nintendo paying royalties for each Wii sold ;)

The future seems bright because the technology is useful and needed. People need small mobile phones with big screens. So mobile phone manufacturers need to take out the keyboard and leave just the screen. The screen will have buttons, and we'll want to feel something when we touch those buttons. I believe all mobile phone manufacturers will have to have this technology to remain competitive and innovative, and they won't bother paying IMMR $1 or so for each unit sold.

The beauty of this is that IMMR's cost of sales will be almost $0, hence the net profit margin can be higher than 50% (not more because of SG&A costs, R&D costs and taxes).

I'll continue holding IMMR.

I might be wrong, but it looks like IMMR closed the gap...

I might be wrong, but it looks like IMMR closed the gap...

Quote from: Amarens on August 01, 2007, 02:23:01 PM
I might be wrong, but it looks like IMMR closed the gap...

It still left a bit open between $13.85 and $14.08. But the candlestick left on the chart gives us a signal of a short term reversal in trend, from bearish to bullish. Let's see if we get confirmation today. Also nice test to the 50 days SMA, closing above the key support level.

I must admit that I felt a bit shaky on IMMR at start, but now that I thought more about the company's business, I'm fully confident that it is a great long term holding for the patient investor. Of course, I would have preferred to buy it now, on the dip, instead of buying it so overbought, but ... the past is something we can't change.

I'll continue holding IMMR.

Quote from: Garoh on July 18, 2007, 03:18:58 PM
Very nice company ...

for now we could see another low probably around 15.8 will be a good buy for me ...

It's unbelievable too see a stock go down 16% just because of a stupid downgrade  ???

I'm in at $15.70  after I saw a very nice technical signs  :)


What I expect now that it will open with a gap up tomorrow and  this is going to lead it to at least $23  ;D
But we should expect the worest to happen as long as we are in a stock market  :)

Immersion Corp 2Q Rev $8.60M Vs $6.65M, +29% >IMMR

QuoteBut we should expect the worest to happen as long as we are in a stock market :)

Very well said Garoh, very well said :)

IMMR's results were a positive surprise, for me at least, because when I read that management said that "eventually in 2007 we'll be profitable" I thought they would report a loss in Q2, but no, a 1 cent profit per share on $8.6 M in revenues. Expectations were for a loss of 2 cents per share.

But that's not really important for this company, since what matters is the future. I heard the conference call (http://immr.client.shareholder.com/MediaRegister.cfm?MediaID=26374), which was extremely interesting.

Here are my highlights:

1 - Nokia agreement is confidential. Management just said the agreement provides IMMR with minimum quarterly payments that will start in Q3 2007, that it has an incentive for Nokia to deploy IMMR's technology in hundreds of millions of phones, because the more phones, the less royalty payments will Nokia have to pay to IMMR. They expect new phones, using IMMR's vibetonz technology, to start shipping in the first half of 2008 (that's earlier than most people thought, because in an interview to Reuters, the CEO said he expected "substantial revenues from the mobile business in 2009"). Management expects more than 50 million Nokia phones using ts technology over the short term ... as for the long term they expect hundreds of millions, that is, probably most of the 400 million mobile phones Nokia sells each year.

2 - Court decision on the Microsoft litigation probably in September 2007.

3 - Management talked about "substantial revenue" in 2009 because they think their technology will generate a lot more revenues than just the ones provided by the mobile phones sold ... this if, as they expect, the technology gets to be widely used. They say mobile games, SMS and other mobile phone applications may use IMMR's technology and therefore will  have to buy a license from the company.

The potential seems to be huge, but we'll just need $1 per Nokia phone sold to justify a $4 B market cap company, that is, 10 times more than the current market cap. The company also has LG Electronics and Samsung as their licensees.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

Even if the US economy enters a consumption led recession, Nokia will still sell 400 million or more mobile phones throughout the World in 2009, when IMMR will probably receive about $1 for each phone sold using its VibeTonz technology.

So ... if everything goes well IMMR will have what, $500 M in revenues in 2009 or 2010? (also considering the company's other businesses). This will translate to at least $250 M net income (considering a 40% income tax rate and $50 M in annual costs), so we're talking about a $2.5 B market cap (considering the average multiple will contract between now and then, from about 16 to about 10, which is very pessimistic). The company's current market cap is $417 M.

Of course, there are risks to the forecast, but I was reassured after the latest conference call that my reasoning is correct and I'm prepared to hold IMMR through all ups and downs between now and the future.

Nothing new on IMMR yesterday, I'll keep holding this one for the long term.

HI David,

I think that when IMMR breaks out in the next day or two, that the stock is absolutely going to explode through the roof. This technology is going to drive such massive revenues and profits for IMMR in the next 3 years, and it is clear that the stock is severely undervalued.

I don't see any reason why IMMR shouldn't be $50 right now, given the big deals that they have in place, and since the technology is proven and is being rolled out as we speak.

This technology and this company is like a dream come true for me. I feel like we are a part of a story in IMMR which has the potential to be SO HUGE!

Thank You so much for finding this amazing company, and for including it in the Main Portfolio. I believe that IMMR will bring the Main upward and onward in the very near future.

Only time will Tell

Have a Fabulous day David!

Bourbon  ;D

CHEERS!!!!!!

just FYI:
insider selling:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1058811.htm
could be the reason for todays price action
cheers
O.

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on August 08, 2007, 10:55:47 AM
HI David,

I think that when IMMR breaks out in the next day or two, that the stock is absolutely going to explode through the roof. This technology is going to drive such massive revenues and profits for IMMR in the next 3 years, and it is clear that the stock is severely undervalued.

I don't see any reason why IMMR shouldn't be $50 right now, given the big deals that they have in place, and since the technology is proven and is being rolled out as we speak.

This technology and this company is like a dream come true for me. I feel like we are a part of a story in IMMR which has the potential to be SO HUGE!

Thank You so much for finding this amazing company, and for including it in the Main Portfolio. I believe that IMMR will bring the Main upward and onward in the very near future.

Only time will Tell

Have a Fabulous day David!

Bourbon  ;D

CHEERS!!!!!!

Gee, you're really enthusiastic about IMMR Bourbon, but hey, you seem enthusiastic about everything in life :)

Quote from: la-onda on August 08, 2007, 10:25:08 PM
just FYI:
insider selling:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1058811.htm
could be the reason for todays price action
cheers
O.

Yep, but just 30,000 shares, not very significant.

Now, there was a form S-8 filed with the SEC (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000095013407017353/f32632sv8.htm) yesterday after the close that will probably harm IMMR in a serious way today. We're talking about 3,303,232 new shares here, which will add to the existing 28 million shares, so, about 11.8% dilution :P

The stock may very well dive by this percentage today due to this news ... but I have something in the back of my mind saying this was already known ... nah, that was another issue, the redemption of debentures.

Why does IMMR need another $52 M? I certainly wasn't expecting this dilutive move, since they had so much cash in the balance sheet.

This shaves some of the potential for the stock (and probably will provide an ugly sell off today), but since the long term potential is still huge, I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

Hi David,

Wow - I am not so enthusiastic about that Major Dilution, but hopefully it will be good long-term. I am interested in the details of the form S-8 - it seems to be shares being issued in accordance with the Immersion Corporation 2007 Equity Incentive Plan.

Can you explain if this is a Private placement, or if the shares are being issued to the President and CEO as compensation?

Thanks as always and Keep Smiling  ;D

Bourbon

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on August 09, 2007, 05:34:10 PM
Hi David,

Wow - I am not so enthusiastic about that Major Dilution, but hopefully it will be good long-term. I am interested in the details of the form S-8 - it seems to be shares being issued in accordance with the Immersion Corporation 2007 Equity Incentive Plan.

Can you explain if this is a Private placement, or if the shares are being issued to the President and CEO as compensation?

Thanks as always and Keep Smiling  ;D

Bourbon

That's an excellent question Bourbon, but there's no answer in the form S-8. I'll dig the issue over several SEC forms for the next update, I'm running a bit late today, sorry.

But I was positively surprised by IMMR's resilience yesterday, falling just 0.85% on the day ... I was afraid it could be a lot more. This tells me IMMR won't go down much further from this point. It is actually a safe stock to own (well, safe as stocks in general goes), even though the usual valuation metrics like the Price to Sales Ratio or the Price to Earnings Ratio seem to reveal a very overvalued situation. IMMR will hold up based on future expectations, that will probably materialize, irrespective of the business cycle. And, the way I see it, even if IMMR is valued at 10 times earnings in 2009 it may still be a $2 B company, more than four times what it is now.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

fyi:
Goldman Sachs Now Owns 14.1% of IMMR  >:D

http://immr.client.shareholder.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CompanyID=IMMR&CIK=1058811&FID=769993-07-885&SID=07-00

cheers
O.

Thanks for all your help La-onda :)

It seems that the 3,303,232 shares registered with a Form S-8 in August 8th (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000095013407017353/f32632sv8.htm) were sold to Goldman Sachs, as reported Friday after the close, in the following form SC-13G (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000076999307000885/immersioncorp.txt).

Goldman Sachs now has 14.1% of IMMR, and it's nice to have institutional ownership.

Technically the stock closed the gap at $13.85 and it seems ready to start pushing higher.

I'll continue holding IMMR.

The market enjoyed Goldman Sachs' investment in IMMR, as the stock rose 3.2% on a day the S&P 500 went slightly down. I'll keep holding IMMR.

In a birthday party of one my kid's cousins I saw the kids were very excited playing a Sony Playstation game which used IMMR's technology. It looks really cool.

Other than that there's nothing new for IMMR today, I'll keep holding the stock.

IMMR can go up or down a lot but nothing will change the prospect of possibly about 600 million mobile phones possibly being sold annually using its technology, starting in 2009.

That will bring about $300 M in annual profits for the company and will make it worth at least $3 B, not $393 M as it is now.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

IMMR dipped very hard over the intraday but then it closed down just about 2%. Lucky buyers down there. I'll continue holding the stock for the long term.

Nice 3.1% advance for IMMR. I know I'm losing 31.4% on this stock, but I think that can change pretty quickly, as the stock trades on expectations, not actual numbers. And these expectations are intact since the stock printed $20.68 in mid July.

Over the long term, say, three years from now, I believe IMMR has the potential to be worth something like $4 B to $6 B, that is, 10 to 15 times more than the current market cap, just by analyzing the company's business model and current contracts with licensees, especially with Nokia.

IMMR fell a bit yesterday. I know why I own the stock, I know its potential, but I'm also aware that it will take time for expectations to turn into real revenues and profits. It will take time for Nokia and others to put the VibeTonz technology in their mobile phones and then sell them.

I'll patiently keep holding IMMR for the long term.

View all Topics | View all Messages   < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
IMMR makes top 5 on IBD  (Not rated)      20-Aug-07 10:55 pm     Top 5 Companies in the Computer-Peripheral Eqp Group Stocks Above $10 - Sorted By Best Overall Rating
Synaptics Inc SYNA
Logitech Intl Sa LOGI
Electronics For Imaging EFII
Immersion Corporation IMMR
Printronix Inc PTNX

IBD Stock Checkup Analysis:
Immersion Corporation receives an overall rating of C+, which is in the 70th percentile of all stocks in the Investor's Business Daily database. The overall rating is calculated using five proprietary ratings that measure each stock's Technical and Fundamental qualities and the Technical and Fundamental qualities of the industry group that it resides in, as well as a rating on the stock's current price attractiveness.

Immersion Corporation receives a Technical Rating of 87, which places it 2nd out of 12 stocks in the Computer-Peripheral Eqp group.

Immersion Corporation receives a Fundamental Rating of 48, which places it 7th out of 12 stocks in the Computer-Peripheral Eqp group.

Immersion Corporation receives an Attractiveness Rating of 74, placing it 3rd out of 12 stocks in its group.

The Computer-Peripheral Eqp group's technical rating of D+ ranks it in the 53rd percentile of the 197 different Investor's Business Daily Industry Groups. The Computer-Peripheral Eqp group's fundamental rating is E, ranking it in the 29th percentile of all groups.
Rate it:
                                   immr is getting noticed.

Thanks for the analysis soxguy :)

Anyone looking at IMMR's price to sales or price to earnings ratio won't understand the company's valuation. It's all about the future and the 600 patents the company owns.

As we look into the future and the revenue potential of the license agreements the company already signed (not counting on future possibilities), the stock looks deeply undervalued.

But it will require a lot of patience. I'll be patient and will keep holding IMMR.

IMMR is currently the biggest loser in the Main Portfolio, with a 29% loss. I think this happened because of a poor timing, not me being wrong about the long term fundamentals of the company.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

No news out and no technical developments for IMMR today. I'll keep holding this one for the long term.

Hi Guitarman,
Thanks for sharing, nice article ;)

Just a quick chart update for IMMR:
Not much price developments from the past few sessions... IMMR is trading tight between two technical lines, the ascending support line and the descending resistance, a «little» bellow there is also the ema-200. The current price range was the place of a consolidation during June; I would say there is not much downside potential at this point, and an upside breakout would probably generate a buying spree.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold IMMR

Best regards,

Chart Update:
IMMR had to choose and made a choice: upside breakout ;)
What a nice move, especially because the market was not helping… Volume increased, but remains low, which is not necessarily a bad sign on this chart at this point. IMMR closed the session near the ema-50 which is the first resistance level. A throwback to the breakpoint would be unpleasant but completely normal for consolidation effects.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold IMMR

Regards,

Chart update:
Too bad that after yesterday's breakout we had to watch such a terrible session on the broad market... Even so IMMR manage to trade inside the previous candle and the breakout level.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold IMMR

Regards,

Chart update:
IMMR is looking great after the recent breakout, yesterday's close was very positive in technical terms, closing above the EMA-50 and showing a lot of strength.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold IMMR

Regards,

This stock has one of the cutest charts  ;D

$17.4 in hand ...

Hi Guitarman, that's really a great article on Immersion, thank you :)

I agree with everything said in the article (also got some new information, like the 3M agreement in the making), except the following:

Quoteand a host of other opportunities that could catapult this company from a $30 million in revenue company with a $392 million market capitalization to a $300 million in revenue company boasting a market cap of over $1 billion... by 2010.

Because IMMR has a patents/royalties based business model, I see net profit margin at around 50%, so if the company achieves $300 M in revenue it will then have net income at about $150 M. If the stock were to trade at 20 times earnings it would then be a $3 B market cap company, not just over $1 B.

But the article fully explains IMMR's technology and its long term potential.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

We don't have any new technical or fundamental information for IMMR. I'll keep holding the stock.

Again, nothing new on IMMR, I'll patiently keep holding.

There was an SEC report filed on Friday saying Mazama Capital Management Inc. owns 2,071,623 IMMR shares.

IMMR is not about the past or the present, but the future. There were 270 million mobile phones sold in the World in the 2nd quarter, so everything is on track for the market to surpass 1 billion units in 2007, with Nokia selling about 40% of that.

Since IMMR signed a licensing agreement with Nokia to provide its VibeTonz technology to Nokia, potentially 400 million mobile phones sold in 2009 will be using IMMR's technology that lets us feel like the touch of a bottom when we touch the screen.

Using previous agreements I figure that IMMR will earn about 1%, on average, for every unit sold, and that means about $1 per mobile phone. $400 M in revenue will mean no less than $200 M in profits and that will mean no less than a $3 B market cap company. Currently IMMR's market cap is $397 M.

I'll hold IMMR for the long term.

I'm losing 30% on IMMR now, but I feel more confident about its business model and prospects than when I initially bought the stock. Sometimes it is better to wait for a pullback, on other times it is better to buy the stock right away, when the fundamental story is attractive.

Let's just say that my timing on buying IMMR was awful, but the long term fundamental story is even more powerful than initially thought, so my hands are as strong as they can be, even though the market currently disagrees with my long term view ... or else the market is just consolidating the huge gains the stock had in 2007, before it continues its march up.

I'll continue holding IMMR.

I'm glad IMMR rallied 3.5% yesterday because I dislike having stocks in the portfolio losing more than 30% ... that's my comfort zone, until 30%, everything is ok, but, say, at a 40% loss then the loss starts getting into my money management nerves.

Fortunately, since 3 Stocks started in April 2005, I never had to take a 40% or more loss in a single stock.

I guess it's about time for a positive press release out from IMMR, don't you think? We'll see what happens next, but you know, my hands are solid as a rock on this one.

QuoteI'm glad IMMR rallied 3.5% yesterday because I dislike having stocks in the portfolio losing more than 30% ... that's my comfort zone, until 30%, everything is ok, but, say, at a 40% loss then the loss starts getting into my money management nerves.

IMMR gave all the 3.5% back over the following days. This stock is somewhat hard to understand, if one looks just to the past and present fundamental data. One needs to look into the future to see the very attractive investment opportunity.

Unfortunately, while the future doesn't come, there's uncertainty and many players don't even see it, they just look at the company's Price to Sales Ratio and Price to Earnings Ratio and consider the stock is way overvalued. But it isn't, at least not when one considers the huge potential of the haptics technology, the 600 patents IMMR has and the license agreements it already signed, the most important one with Nokia, the biggest mobile phone manufacturer in the World, with more than 40% market share.

I'll patiently wait for the future as I hold IMMR.

In lack of specific news or a fundamental back up in terms of hard revenues and profits, IMMR trades on sentiment over the short term. I'm glad sentiment is turning more bullish today (I hope/expect the rally sticks after the FED decision) and probably that's going to help IMMR move north, according to its future prospects.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

We've had just a little bit of a positive reaction to the $13.48 support level, on increasing but still low volume. Still no news out. I'll keep holding IMMR.

IMMR moved up a bit, getting out of the discomfort zone, which is the -30% level. I welcome the short term move, but of course, I expect a lot more over the long term, as the revenue and profits start rolling in.

At just $1 per unit sold using its technology IMMR will be a multi-billion dollar company. I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

IMMR trading around $15 premarket. Can't find any news.

Quote from: soxguy on September 20, 2007, 08:44:45 AM
IMMR trading around $15 premarket. Can't find any news.

Yeah soxguy, there weren't any news and the stock came back down to fill the gap. I guess that today, with the general market being so positive, the stock will go higher.

Fundamentally nothing changed, I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

QuoteYeah soxguy, there weren't any news and the stock came back down to fill the gap. I guess that today, with the general market being so positive, the stock will go higher.

The general market wasn't all that positive after all, but IMMR rose 3.2% anyway, which I welcome. Now if we could get a high above $15.28 we would be starting to have higher lows and higher highs, the definition of a bull trend. We'll see what happens to the chart.

I'll continue holding IMMR.

IMMR has been showing some resilience, but the "true" technical test will happen when the stock faces the 50 days SMA (currently at $15.11) and the $15.28 horizontal resistance level.

I think any day now we can get a positive news release, which can be a new license agreement or further developments in the IMMR - Nokia collaboration, for example the showing of new mobile phone models using IMMR's VibeTonz technology.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

Bah, nothing new on IMMR, I'll continue ... you know.

I'm glad JKN likes IMMR story and stock. I like it too. Nice to have a bit of upside action yesterday. No news out. I'll keep holding.

Found this from 2006.  Its old but relevant.

http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/16/cx_cd_0217featslide_8.html?thisSpeed=6000

10 Things That Will Change The Way We Live - Haptics

Whether people know it or not, haptics has been subtly making inroads into everyday life in the form of vibrating phones, gaming controllers and force-feedback control knobs in cars (BMW's iDrive system uses the technology). But the science of haptics has the potential to do much more. Products, such as the CyberForce "whole-hand force feedback system" from Immersion Corporation and SenseAble Technologies, let users interact physically with virtual objects. For instance, by using a sensor-equipped glove and a force-reflecting exoskeleton, you could literally feel the shape, texture and weight of an onscreen 3-D object. Such devices are used now for virtual modeling, medicine and the military, but as costs decrease, haptic interfaces could become valuable communication tools. Using haptics technology, people will be able to shake hands virtually over the Internet, and doctors will have the ability to remotely diagnose and operate on patients.

I can't find any news for the pop.  Upgrade?

Could be technical, short-term resistance levels back to 8/14 on the 60-min chart have been blown out.  Now its chewing on the 16.25-16.50 area.  Good volume.

Perhaps some big big buyer has stepped in trigerring execution of higher technical orders? Some news could be soon out. ;)

It was mentioned on CNBC and someone said good things about it ...

I didn't see it but a friend told me  :)
Technically this stock is a rocket and heading to $23.5  ;D

Quote from: Garoh on September 27, 2007, 03:29:50 PM
It was mentioned on CNBC and someone said good things about it ...

I didn't see it but a friend told me  :)
Technically this stock is a rocket and heading to $23.5  ;D

Are you sure about that friend Garoh? I've inspected most messages on the Yahoo message board for IMMR and there's some speculation that CNBC filmed IMMR at an event, but nobody saw it, nobody knows for sure why the stock moved up. Some say it was Cramer who talked about it, others say it is probably positive news pending ... Thanks :)

Well, I guess an undervalued and promising stock like IMMR doesn't need news to go up 8)

Yesterday's move in IMMR and my continuous study of the Main's holdings makes a believer that there are no losers in this portfolio. If given time, they will all rise above the buying price and outperform the general market over the long term.

I'll hold IMMR for the long term.

Hi everyone

Searching for news I found the link and put it down about this technology in the site of Imersion;  it is from MAY07 but I think it is a valueable "food for tought for the weekend" about the future perspectives if this stock and perhaps for a nearterm surprise annoucement

Have a good weekend


http://www.immersion.com/corporate/press_room/pdfs/Value-of-Haptics_May07v1-lr.pdf

Quote from: Rmagos on September 29, 2007, 06:20:17 AM
Hi everyone

Searching for news I found the link and put it down about this technology in the site of Imersion;  it is from MAY07 but I think it is a valueable "food for tought for the weekend" about the future perspectives if this stock and perhaps for a nearterm surprise annoucement

Have a good weekend


http://www.immersion.com/corporate/press_room/pdfs/Value-of-Haptics_May07v1-lr.pdf

Thanks for this link Rmagos, there's no doubt Haptics technology by IMMR will have a great future.

Mobile phones and other mobile devices are an obvious application, because everybody wants them to be small, but they also want to do many things with them, so there can't be no keypad, just a touchscreen panel on which we can feel when we touch the buttons is the optimal solution.

Volume has been high on IMMR, as the stock moved to the upside, still without fundamental justification. Perhaps over the next few days we'll know why IMMR moved the last couple of days ...

I'll hold IMMR for the long term.

IMMR looking good here too....I wonder if we don't get a nice white candle by close??

Quote from: kslifka on October 01, 2007, 11:30:10 AM
IMMR looking good here too....I wonder if we don't get a nice white candle by close??

Nope, it seems like the stock needed some more consolidation. But, looking at the chart, the last two days seem like a build up for another powerful white candle.

We still didn't have any news out to justify the bullish breakout (not that the stock needed news to move higher), I guess Garoh was right and the move happened because of a CNBC piece, which isn't the best way to start a bull run, but ... it doesn't mean it won't happen. The fundamental story is very attractive and the more people that are familiar with it ... the better for the share price.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

David It could be because of the CNBC thing ... but Technically the stock looks very bullish now .
The last two days means nothing but I expect it to move up very quickly  ;)

Quote from: Garoh on October 02, 2007, 08:17:03 AM
David It could be because of the CNBC thing ... but Technically the stock looks very bullish now .
The last two days means nothing but I expect it to move up very quickly  ;)

And it did, congrats Garoh :)

IMMR's story was unleashed on CNBC and of course, people loved it. My reasoning is as simple as it can be ... 400 million mobile phones*$1 per mobile phones means $400 M in revenues, which for a company like IMMR means no less than $200 M net income. Give it at least 15 times earnings and get a $3 B market cap company, six times more than what it is now.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

The chart keeps pointing north, despite yesterday's dip. Anyway, I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term due to its revenue and earnings potential.

IMMR's management hasn't been giving us much clues on how business is going ... no press releases since August 2, when the company reported earnings.

From the latest earnings release:

«"We now have the financial base to pursue significant revenue growth from our many opportunities in existing and new markets," continued Viegas. "As a result of our June agreement with Nokia, the number one maker of mobile devices, we now have licensed our VibeTonz(R) technology to three of the top five handset makers, thereby creating the potential for a significant increase in the number of VibeTonz-enabled mobile devices and the type and amount of content available for them. In addition, during the quarter we launched an exciting new medical simulation platform, the LaparoscopyVR(TM) system, that can address training needs across multiple disciplines including general surgery, gynecology, pediatrics, and urology."»

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

No news out for IMMR. I've held the stock for so long while I've been losing about 30%, I certainly won't sell now that the chart turned bullish again. I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

Here we go :

Immersion Medical Introduces OB/GYN Module For LaparoscopyVR(TM) Surgical Simulator

this just came across one of my news feeds:
fyi

A patent recently filed by Apple seeks to improve of some of the shortcomings of the first generation iPhone's screen.

Apple is calling the patent a, "Force Imaging Input and Device System," placing a spring-like layer beneath the screen. Different amounts of pressure applied to the screen would result in the inputting of different data sets.

This is perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but the phrase "spring-like" also brings to mind some kind of tactile feedback for the device, which has long been on of the major complaints about the current model's screen, and really, touchscreens in general.

I wonder if it will compete with IMMR's technology or infringe on its patents?

url: http://www.gearlog.com/2007/10/apple_applies_for_new_touchscr.php

Quote from: Garoh on October 08, 2007, 08:58:10 AM
Here we go :

Immersion Medical Introduces OB/GYN Module For LaparoscopyVR(TM) Surgical Simulator

IMMR indeed went north Garoh, but I don't think it was because of that press release:

• Immersion Medical Introduces OB/GYN Module for LaparoscopyVR(TM) Surgical Simulator (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071008/20071008005275.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

IMMR's fundamental story isn't about this part of their business, it's about the use of its VibeTonz in mobile devices. The stock didn't move much on this news, it only moved when this Apple story broke out:

Apple Applies for New Touchscreen Patent (http://www.gearlog.com/2007/10/apple_applies_for_new_touchscr.php)

(thanks for bringing this to us ravenquork)

QuoteI wonder if it will compete with IMMR's technology or infringe on its patents?

Well, the technology seems quite similar to IMMR's VibeTonz and we know how Sony had to pay $134.9 M to IMMR because of an IMMR's patent infringement. So the market is speculating Apple will end up paying IMMR ... you just can't add tactile feedback to your touchscreen without buying a license from IMMR, IMMR has 600 patents covering all aspects of it.

All this just adds fuel to the incredible revenue and profit potential behind the license agreement with Nokia.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

IMMR had a bit of profit taking yesterday, no big deal. I couldn't do "profit taking" because I'm still losing 10.5% in this holding (as usual, my short term timing was poor), but if I were gaining 10% I wouldn't do it anyway, because I see four to six bags of profits coming from IMMR if I give the stock a couple of years time. That's what I'll do.

Nothing new on IMMR, I'll keep holding the stock.

I've seen the new I-Pod working and that thing really needs tactile feedback. If Apple tries to develop one in-house it will probably violate one of IMMR's patents. It will probably end up buying a license from IMMR.

Anyway, IMMR doesn't need Apple to be worth 4 or 6 times more than what it is worth today. Nokia alone may do the trick, as we've seen. We just need patience for those nokia phones with the VibeTonz technology to be commercially launched and IMMR receiving an undisclosed $ amount for each Nokia phone sold. Even if it is just $1 per phone it would still be huge for IMMR ($1 is my expectation).

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

We've had a press release out from IMMR yesterday:

• Immersion Medical Introduces New Laparoscopic Procedural Skill Module (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071015/20071015005019.html?.v=2)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

This is good news, but not the interesting story behind IMMR. I think management shouldn't focus too much on this medical equipment unit and keep sending out press releases about it, because what people want to hear is about the mobile devices unit and how the work with Nokia is doing. We want details about what the new models will be and how many ... I think that could be the catalyst to put IMMR back above $20.

Well, sooner or later, it is set to happen, so I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

IMMR's results will be released in November 1st:

• Immersion Schedules Release Date and Earnings Conference Call for Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071016/20071016005031.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 8:30am)

I'm more interested in the conference call than on the financial numbers of the 3rd quarter.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

We'll hear the conference call in two weeks time. It will be interesting. In the meantime there's nothing else to do but to patiently keep holding IMMR.

Hi David

Nokia had his results above of analyts expectations. 85% this quarter comparing with the last and over 113 milions of handsets sold.... good for IMMR... excellent for us...
Superb your job

Quote from: Rmagos on October 18, 2007, 07:11:27 AM
Hi David

Nokia had his results above of analyts expectations. 85% this quarter comparing with the last and over 113 milions of handsets sold.... good for IMMR... excellent for us...
Superb your job

Yep, good news and thanks Rmagos :)

The more phones Nokia sells, the better for IMMR. But before that the company needs to put its technology in as many models as it can. I hope to hear about how the collaboration with Nokia is going at the Q3 conference call.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

Bears can sell IMMR all they want, they can't change the fact that the feel of touch is needed in mobile devices and IMMR has 600 patents covering all aspects of it. With Nokia selling 450 million mobile phones a year and the following news ...

«On July 2, 2007, Immersion Corporation ("Immersion") announced that Nokia Corporation has obtained a long-term, worldwide license for Immersion's VibeTonz tactile feedback system for mobile devices. The license gives Nokia, the world's leading mobile device manufacturer, the rights to use VibeTonz technology to enhance mobile device operation.»

... and the price Sony had to pay due to infringement of IMMR's patents:

«The Court further ordered Sony Computer Entertainment to pay a compulsory license fee at the rate of 1.37% for the duration of the stay of the permanent injunction at the same rate and conditions as previously awarded in its interim January 10, 2005 and February 9, 2005 Orders.»

So I figure IMMR's license fee will be about 1% of any product sold. Since Nokia sells mobile phones with an average selling price of ...

«Nokia's average selling price in the third quarter 2007 was EUR 82, down from EUR 93 in the third quarter 2006 and down from EUR 90 in the second quarter 2007. The lower year on year and sequential ASP in the third quarter 2007 was primarily the result of a significantly higher proportion of entry level device sales, especially in the under EUR 30 category where industry growth has been very strong and where Nokia has the leading market share.»

82 € are worth $117 at the current €/$ exchange rate.

So I estimate no less than $1 per Nokia mobile phone sold using VibeTonz technology. The big questions are how many models and which models will start having the VibeTonz technology incorporated. I believe that over the long term all Nokia mobile phones will have the VibeTonz technology, and that should mean no less than $400 M in annual revenue, and no less than $200 M in annual net income, for IMMR, which is currently a $443 M market cap company.

And, of course, IMMR isn't restricted to Nokia, it has other licensees and its technology may have application in many other product categories beyond mobile devices.

I don't think the people selling IMMR on Friday had these issues in mind. But they're the relevant issues for the long term investor in IMMR's shares. And they all point for a company with awesome long term potential. I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

QuoteAnd, of course, IMMR isn't restricted to Nokia, it has other licensees and its technology may have application in many other product categories beyond mobile devices.

Good news just out for IMMR:

• First Personal Navigation Devices With Immersion's Tactile Feedback to Launch (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071022/20071022005063.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

Not good enough to push the stock higher in the pre-market, but good news nonetheless.

IMMR is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio, but I remain confident that it is an excellent long term pick. It's just that revenues and profits will only start flowing strongly in 2009, when Nokia's handset models using IMMR's technology start selling.

The stock has been trading inside an ascending channel, as you can see on the chart below. I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

Bourbon dropped me a private message on IMMR:

QuoteIf you get a chance, could you analyze IMMR, and let us know what you think revenues and EPS should be for the stock to continue it's advance? The consensus is that they will come in with $9 Million in Sales and -.02 EPS. Is it possible that they could have much higher numbers, or will we have to wait a few more quarters? Also, if they are in-line with those estimates, do you expect the stock to continue pushing to $50? I will look for your response in the IMMR thread if you wish.

Yeah sure Bourbon, every "normal" day I write a few comments about IMMR, and if there are questions, it only makes my job easier :)

I think you're missing the point about IMMR's fundamental story Bourbon. IMMR is different from most other Main Portfolio's investment plays, you can't see it in today's revenues or profits. Q3 revenue and EPS numbers are irrelevant to where IMMR is going to be 12 months, or let's make it 24 months, from now.

The story behind IMMR's investment relates mainly with the licensing agreement with Nokia. Nokia sells 400 million plus mobile phones a year, and it is working with IMMR to incorporate IMMR's VibeTonz technology in its mobile phones. Nokia will pay IMMR a royalty for every single mobile phone sold using VibeTonz technology in the world.

I say this will bring at least $400 M in revenue and $200 M in net income to IMMR, and that should make IMMR worth at least $3 B (15 times earnings). Currently the company is worth $452 M, so you get the point.

Now, what is needed for IMMR to start rising, say, to double over the next 3-6 months? It is needed more information about how the partnership with Nokia is going. How many Nokia models will be using VibeTonz, starting when? These are the questions now and if they provide some positive answers over the next conference call, surely the stock will fly.

Current revenues and profits don't mean much for the share price, at least no more than a couple of days reaction. 

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

Make no mistake about it, the main reason why I own IMMR for the long term is the following press release:

«Nokia Licenses Immersion's VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback for Mobile Devices

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 2, 2007--Immersion
Corporation (NASDAQ:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch
feedback technology, today announced that Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK)
has obtained a long-term, worldwide license for Immersion's
VibeTonz(R) tactile feedback system for mobile devices. The license
gives Nokia, the world's leading mobile device manufacturer, the
rights to use VibeTonz technology to enhance mobile device operation.

"This license with Nokia supports the potential for very
widespread use of our VibeTonz System -- and the VibeTonz System
supports the potential for a much fuller, more multisensory experience
for users," said Immersion CEO Victor Viegas. "With VibeTonz
technology, Nokia can very purposefully access the sense of touch and
add value throughout the mobile device."

A single implementation of the VibeTonz System can supply several
advantages, including off-load dependence on sight and sound, which
can enhance safety and ease operation in some situations. Tactile
feedback has also been found to improve execution time, error rate,
and information capacity.(1) More specifically, the technology allows
touchscreen-based mobile devices to provide unmistakable tactile cues
in response to touchscreen presses. It can enliven mobile games with
touch feedback similar to that found in console games; heighten the
music and ringtone fun-factor by "turning up the sub-woofers" with a
vibe beat; make operation easier and more intuitive by pairing
audio/visual with tactile cues for events such as call dropped,
ringing, and busy; and make alerts more discernible and memorable by
varying how they feel, from a reverberating gong effect to a subtle
tapping.

Under the license, Nokia has the right to use Immersion's VibeTonz
Mobile Player in its mobile devices sold worldwide. Immersion will
supply its VibeTonz SDK to Nokia's Forum Nokia developer community for
creating downloadable applications and content for VibeTonz-enabled
products.»

Because Nokia sells more than 400 million mobile phones a year, this will probably change IMMR's fundamentals completely. This is why I don't care buying IMMR with the following multiples:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41410;image)

Now, people looking at IMMR for the first time and not knowing about this press release ... will think it is very expensive ... but it is actually quite cheap, given its future prospects.

I'll keep on holding IMMR.

IMMR is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio, but I'm not worried about it, due to the reasons described above on this thread. I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

IMMR will release 3rd quarter earnings today after the close:

«A press release will be transmitted to the news media immediately following the close of regular trading on November 1st. The company will also hold a conference call including a question and answer session to discuss the results beginning at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time.»

I'll hold through earnings and I'm more interested in the conference call and Q&A session than the actual revenue and profit numbers for this quarter, which are mostly irrelevant for IMMR's long term share price developments.

     !My

       

Press Release Source: Immersion Corporation


Immersion Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Thursday November 1, 4:05 pm ET


SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ:IMMR - News), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, today announced its third quarter 2007 financial results. Revenues were $9.8 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2007 or 49% higher when compared to revenues of $6.6 million for the third quarter of 2006.
ADVERTISEMENT


Net income for the third quarter was $493,000 compared to a net loss of $(3.2) million for the third quarter of 2006. Diluted earnings per share were $0.02 for the quarter compared to $(0.13) loss per share for the third quarter of 2006.

Revenues were $24.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 compared to revenues of $19.2 million for the first nine months of 2006. Net income for the first nine months of 2007 was $123.1 million, or $3.93 diluted earnings per share, compared to a net loss of $(8.4) million, or $(0.34) loss per share, for the first nine months of 2006.

As of September 30, 2007, Immersion had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $137.2 million compared to $135.5 million as of June 30, 2007.

"Immersion has now completed three consecutive profitable quarters with very strong year-to-date revenue growth compared to the first nine months of 2006. Revenue from our Medical business grew 22%, Touch Interface Products 32%, and Gaming 47%. We also reached a significant level of third-quarter revenue of $930,000 in our Mobility business," said Victor Viegas, Immersion CEO, president, and chairman of the board.

"We recently completed a strategic plan for significantly growing revenue and shareholder value, targeting growth opportunities in three areas: medical simulators, mobile devices, and tactile feedback for touchscreens," continued Viegas. "The plan involves product and technology development, sales and marketing initiatives, financial plans, and organizational changes.

"Over the past five years, the Immersion team and I have built and defended a strong intellectual property portfolio, invested in markets and technologies that have become long-term growth opportunities, and steered the company to profitability. As the leading company in haptics technology, Immersion is positioned for substantial growth as markets increasingly recognize the value of haptics. Now is the right time to bring in additional management strength in sales and marketing to drive our growth initiatives while I continue to provide my expertise in licensing, intellectual property, and business negotiations. Therefore, the Immersion Board of Directors and I are announcing several organizational changes," concluded Viegas.

Effective October 31, 2007, Victor Viegas, currently CEO, president, and director of Immersion was elected chairman of the board, and Jack Saltich, who has served on the board since January 2002, was elected lead independent director in accordance with corporate governance best practices. Mr. Viegas continues as CEO and president while the Immersion Board of Directors conducts an open search for a new CEO.

In addition, the company will add a new board member to strengthen experience in the mobile communications industry. A search has begun for candidates with sales and marketing experience in the wireless operator and mobile phone market.

"These changes help position Immersion for its next stage of growth, one based on building strong businesses from its solid foundation of intellectual property, technology, and product solutions," said Jack Saltich, lead director. "As the company continues to benefit from Vic's leadership and financial background as chairman of the board, it will also benefit from a new CEO and a new board member who will each bring additional skills, strong sales and marketing background, and experience in one or more of our target markets."

In a separate press release today, Immersion announced that its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $50 million of the company's common stock as part of its strategic financial plan.

I snagged some shares before the close at $15.55.  :)

I will be listening to the conference call.  Hopefully good news...along with the $50 million share repurchase program in place. ;D

Nice AH pop,after a down session like today, it's a relief. Hope the CC goes well.

Quote from: soxguy on November 01, 2007, 04:32:53 PM
Nice AH pop,after a down session like today, it's a relief. Hope the CC goes well.

It couldn't be better soxguy :)

We have a lot of material to work in this conference call. All my expectations were confirmed, the company is working to insert VibeTonz in hundreds of millions of mobile devices.

And there are already mobile phones in the market, from Samsung and LG, using IMMR's VibeTonz, check for example the "Giorgio Armani Mobile Phone (http://www.letsgodigital.org/en/16985/giorgio-armani-mobile-phone/)".

«By adapting a haptical UI, users can feel an immediate mild vibration when they touch icons on the display.»

The company is currently working on 50 models from Nokia, Samsung and LG.

I also welcome the $50 M share buyback program (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071101/20071101006202.html?.v=1). I already didn't worry about dilution here, but wasn't counting on the company buying back shares either.

Management has a lot of faith in getting revenues from content for mobile devices which uses touch feedback technology, like messages and games, but I wasn't even counting on this.

I'm somewhat short on time today, but we'll cover more aspects of this conference call over the next few updates.

No doubt I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term, I think this stock has the potential to be a ten bagger if given time.

IMMR had that type of behavior seen so many times, when very positive and relevant information is release and yet investors sell the stock after the higher open. It happened that way too when the company announced the favorable end of the Sony litigation, back in March 2007, look at this black candle:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41615;image)

One month later IMMR was still below that higher open, but four months later it was 100% higher. It goes to show how reaction, sometimes, takes time.

I believe that in 6 months time IMMR will surely be trading at a new high above $21 and I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.

David, another much more profitable touch screen play is SYNA, synaptics. May be if you consider it for the portfolio if you feel its great investment. They just had a blew up quarter last week and stock is holding on to much of the gains.

Quote from: stocky on November 05, 2007, 03:34:31 PM
David, another much more profitable touch screen play is SYNA, synaptics. May be if you consider it for the portfolio if you feel its great investment. They just had a blew up quarter last week and stock is holding on to much of the gains.

SYNA's fundamental trends are powerful, but it is already a $1.6 B market cap, while IMMR is $0.46 B.

Anyway, it looks good to make a more in depth analysis, thanks stocky :)

I've been studying SYNA's technology (http://www.synaptics.com/) and it is different from IMMR's. SYNA's is already widespread used, in fact, I have it both my computers. Also I don't think SYNA's business model is as profitable as IMMR's.

Still an interesting company, though, good luck if you own it stocky :)

I think that anyone holding IMMR or interested in the stock should listen to the 3rd quarter conference call (http://immr.client.shareholder.com/MediaRegister.cfm?MediaID=27727).

Even though there's some important specific information lacking, like for example, the details of the licensing agreement with Nokia, I believe it is clear this company is set for very strong revenue and profit growth.

I believe IMMR can be a $3 B business a couple of years from now, that is, six times more than what it is now.

IMMR's management seems alert to any new products that may infringe the company's intellectual property. I wrote the following e-mail to them:

«IMMR's shareholder question

Hello, I've noticed this device (http://home.novint.com/products/novint_falcon.php) from Novint (NVNT.OB) and I would like to know if this company has a licensing agreement with IMMR? If not I would like to turn your attention to it, since it appears to me that it violates IMMR's intelectual property.

Thank you,
David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org»

And the reply was:

«David

Thanks for your email. We know Novint and their products quite well.

Novint is currently not a licensee.

Regards
Stephen Ambler
CFO - Immersion Corporation»

Even though I gave you the Giorgio Armani mobile phone (http://www.letsgomobile.org/en/2183/giorgio-armani-mobile-phone/) as an example, I believe this and other models with the VibeTonz technology are still not for sale in stores, are they?

For the next update I'll listen the conference call again and will take notice of all the models mentioned and then I'll investigate if they're already in the marketplace or not and will also check their average selling price.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

Instead of listening to the conference call (again), I read the 3rd quarter 10-Q filed with the SEC (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000095013407023367/f35149e10vq.htm) looking for any clue relative to Nokia's licensing agreement, but zip, niente, nada, zero.

But I got this important information:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41722;image)

IMMR's segment with the highest potential, Immersion Computing, Entertainment and Industrial is still losing money, as expected, since those mobile phones with the VibeTonz technology still didn't hit the marketplace.

But, from an assets perspective, look at this unit's value:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41723;image)

$175 M. Wait for this unit to start getting very significant revenues and profits in 2008 and especially in 2009, when possibly hundreds of millions of mobile phones will be sold with the VibeTonz technology. IMMR just needs $1 for each phone sold. I wonder if this is the real value they'll get, or less, or more. There's no public information on the subject, I got the $1 estimate because of what the company received in the Sony litigation, 1.67% of Sony's revenues using IMMR's technology. Here I'm considering just 1% of $100 for each mobile phone sold, on average (we've learned a while back the average price is actually $120 plus).

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

On July 2nd, 2007, IMMR released the "Nokia news (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000115752307006649/a5441646.txt)". In my opinion this news completely changed IMMR's future prospects. It meant that it is possible that in the near future Nokia will incorporate the VibeTonz technology in most, if not all of its new mobile phones (and Nokia sells more than 400 million of these a year).

On a rough estimate this would mean $400 M in annual revenue and $200 M in net income for IMMR, which is a $427 M market cap company.

And yet, IMMR is currently trading below the price it was trading when that very relevant news hit the wires. I believe there's a deep inefficiency here, it doesn't make any sense.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

WHAY IS there high insider selling? specially from the CEO??!

Quote from: guledh0 on November 12, 2007, 02:49:58 PM
WHAY IS there high insider selling? specially from the CEO??!

I don't see it guledh0. The CEO sold a few shares coming from his options incentive plan:

«1. The exercise and sale reported in this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on June 8 2007.»

Since August the CEO converted and sold 102,081 shares of IMMR. That's not a lot, it's a normal stock options incentive plan.

What is your source for insider sales? Thanks :)

To me what is happening with IMMR is ridiculous, it derives from the lack of information ... any prospective buyer misses IMMR's story entirely, unless he really digs a lot. I guess IMMR's problem is that it is a story of the future, there aren't hard earnings in the present to justify the stock's valuation. Even though the future is highly likely and not all that far off, the market doesn't care, it is compressing the valuation on all stocks.

I don't care about what the market thinks at the present either. I see IMMR up six fold over the next couple of years and I'll hold for that. I want to see the mobile phones using the VibeTonz technology in my hand and that reflected in the company's revenues and earnings. Then I'll judge.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

The lower IMMR goes over the short term, the better for its long term prospects :)

Strange affirmation, isn't it? Let me explain.

IMMR's management recently announced a $50 M buyback program:

• Immersion to buy back up to $50 mln of shares (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=1165jh9eu/*http://www.reuters.com/legacyArticle?duid=mtfh99130_2007-11-01_20-24-45_wnas9893_newsml&rpc=44&type=marketsNews)
at Reuters (Thu, Nov 1)

So, the lower the stock price is, the more shares $50 M will buy. And that means a lower # of shares outstanding in the future and therefore a higher EPS number.

There are two problems with these investments "in the future":

1) There's no linearity between the present and the future, that is, one doesn't get a step by step confirmation that he's right about the long term outlook. The future will come as a bang, not as a process, because it won't be seen by the majority until it actually happens. But, it can also happen as a process, there's always doubt ... or, the bang can come any minute with a press release explaining Nokia's licensing agreement details, for example. This is why one needs to patiently keep holding the stock in my view.

2) One needs a lot of patience and confidence that this is the right path to wealth creation.

I know the problems but believe the benefits outweigh them.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term. 

At first glance it looks like a lot of insider selling. One must scroll down to see they are exercising options (I think that is what you call it). David, isn't there a time limit, when a company gives an employee or board of director shares, for them to sell their shares?



http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1058811.htm (http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1058811.htm)

OK, a little research, I will answer my question. Employees typically must wait a specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option.  :)

Quote from: Houlahan on November 18, 2007, 07:51:35 PM
OK, a little research, I will answer my question. Employees typically must wait a specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option.  :)

Yep, a common shareholder doesn't like employee stock options plans much because they dilute shareholders value, but since IMMR will buy $50 M of its own shares (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=1165jh9eu/*http://www.reuters.com/legacyArticle?duid=mtfh99130_2007-11-01_20-24-45_wnas9893_newsml&rpc=44&type=marketsNews) I guess dilution won't be a problem going forward, quite the opposite.

IMMR broke down below the "key" $13.58 short term support yesterday, almost touching the 200 days SMA support, currently at $12.92. I guess this was due to general market weakness and investors perceiving IMMR as overvalued relatively to its financial numbers, not looking into the future.

As I look into the future I see hundreds of millions of mobile devices sold annually using the VibeTonz technology and that should bring hundreds of millions in revenue for the company at a very high gross and net margin.

And it won't be the market to tell me I'm wrong, only the actual future reality can show me that.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

RIM may be next with touch screen
Consultant Levy argues Waterloo firm is anxious to lure more consumers
Nov 27, 2007 04:30 AM

With the iPhone making its way onto Christmas lists around the world, the guessing game about BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion Ltd.'s response has already begun in earnest.

At least one industry-watcher says Waterloo-based RIM is poised to unveil a touch-screen device as early as next year to compete with Apple Inc.'s iPhone, which is not yet available in Canada.

RIM's new device will mark a departure from the traditional half-screen, half-keyboard look of the company's popular BlackBerry models and would be aimed squarely at consumers, said Carmi Levy, a former tech analyst who is now the senior vice-president of strategic consulting for AR Communications Inc.

The logic behind such a move is simple, said Levy, who cited sources at RIM for his information. A growing segment of RIM's new subscribers are consumers, as opposed to corporate types, and consumers want multimedia-capable devices with large, vivid screens to view photos, browse the Web and watch video.

"They're playing in a very different sandbox than they were in the past," Levy said. "The philosophy that endeared them so strongly to the enterprise market needs to evolve as they move into the consumer space. They are learning from the Apple experience."

RIM declined to comment on the speculation, citing company policy.

Apple unveiled the iPhone to great fanfare in late June. At the time, several observers suggested that the design-oriented computer and iPod maker had raised the bar for the entire handset industry with the sleek touch-screen device.

Unlike competing smartphones made by RIM and Palm Inc., the iPhone requires users to type in phone numbers or email messages via a virtual keyboard.

Most analysts, however, have so far played down the impact of the iPhone on RIM's core market of business users. That's because Apple's virtual keyboard, while nifty, has been criticized in several reviews for not being as functional as RIM's tactile one.

Still, it's no secret that RIM has its eye on the consumer space with devices such as the BlackBerry Pearl, which looks more like a cellphone. In fact, co-chief executive officer Jim Balsillie said during an October conference call that the number of new non-business customers in North America eclipsed new corporate customers for the first time in RIM's history during the second quarter.

Other analysts said they could not corroborate Levy's information about the possibility that RIM was set to unveil a touch-screen device.

Ken Dulaney, an analyst at Gartner Research, said he believes RIM's future growth will depend on its ability to engineer new "form factors." He stressed, however, that "RIM has always been about text input, and my experience is that, on the iPhone, text (input) is one of the weakest features."

Michelle Warren, an analyst with Info-Tech Research Group, said she wouldn't be surprised to learn that RIM's engineers were exploring the idea of a touch-screen interface.

She stressed, however, that RIM was not the type of company to launch a device until the technology had been perfected.

David,
This is what you have been saying....phone sales will continue to increase. They will need IMMR's technology, I hope.

Follow link for orginal article and more interesting reading.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=204203554 (http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=204203554)

Sales Of Multimedia Phones To Pass TVs Next Year, Report Predicts

By 2011, about 9 of 10 mobile phones will include basic multimedia capabilities; today about 60% have those features, says MultiMedia Intelligence.

By Elena Malykhina
InformationWeek
November 26, 2007 05:30 PM

Worldwide shipments of multimedia-enabled mobile phones will exceed 300 million units next year, surpassing shipments of television sets, according to a research report being released this week by MultiMedia Intelligence. Sales of such phones will generate over $76 billion in revenue.

By 2011, about 9 of 10 mobile phones will include basic multimedia capabilities, which consist of an image sensor, MP3 audio support, and video playback. Currently, these capabilities are available in 60% of mobile phones, according to the report.

In general, MultiMedia Intelligence defines basic multimedia phones as those that have at least a 1.0-megapixel camera, MP3 audio and video playback capabilities, Java, USB, Bluetooth, 16-bit screen color, QVGA resolution, as well as Wireless Application Protocol and Multimedia Message Service support.

Wireless carriers view multimedia phones as a great opportunity to attract new subscribers. Consequently, they're turning to leading manufacturers, such as Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Samsung, LG Electronics, and Sony Ericsson, for exclusive phones with innovative form factors and multimedia features.

A touch screen will be another prominent feature on mobile phones in the near future. The number of phones with touch screens will reach almost 200 million by 2011.

Chip makers are integrating baseband and applications processors into single chips to create lower-cost multimedia feature phones. One example isTexas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)' LoCosto platform. While the development is at present centered on low-end phones, manufacturers will eventually migrate to higher-end phones, the report said.

Despite their reputation for lagging behind Europe and Asia in terms of built-out of next generation networks and introduction of innovative services, wireless carriers in the United States are now rolling out new phones with multimedia features quite frequently.

AT&T (NYSE: T) on Monday announced the availability of the Shine by LG Electronics, a multimedia phone pre-loaded with music and video features. The phone allows users to send live or recorded video to others during a call, and the ability to transfer songs from their PCs to the Shine, which has an integrated music player.

In addition to making available its iPhone look-alikes, Voyager and Venus by LG Electronics, Verizon (NYSE: VZ) Wireless began selling the FlipShot by Samsung, last week. The FlipShot is designed for photo enthusiasts, featuring a built-in 3.0-megapixel camera with digital zoom, camcorder, and a rotating display that positions photos vertically or horizontally for easier viewing.

Sprint (NYSE: S) and T-Mobile are the other two U.S. carriers with a selection of multimedia phones.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/28/touch-screens-phones-tech-holidaytech07-cx_ew_1128touch_slide_9.html?thisSpeed=30000

Thanks for these articles Houlahan and stocky :)

It's inevitable, people want to watch pictures, videos and television in the mobile devices and at the same time they want them to be small and light. To accomplish this companies are starting to eliminate the keyboard component of the device and opting for touch screens. The problem with touch screens is that one doesn't feel what he's doing, unless there's tactile feedback and the company that provides that is IMMR. The company already has licensing agreements with 3 of the top 5 largest manufacturers of mobile phones, Nokia, Samsung and LG. But, these agreements still didn't produce any relevant revenues to IMMR, because the mobile phones using IMMR's technology still aren't commercially available, only in 2008.

Besides these applications for mobile phones, there are others, like the ones shown in stocky's link (wait a few seconds because it changes the pictures and information every 5 seconds or so).

The best part of this story is that IMMR's licensing revenues will carry very high profit margins. The technology was already developed and costs should be relatively small.

Just recently investors were obsessed with valuation and anything with a very high P/E or high sales multiple went down sharply. Currently IMMR's P/E is 163 so it seems incredibly overvalued (discounting the huge gain from the litigation with Sony - if considered the P/E would be 3.1). But I believe it's actually incredibly undervalued, because in 2009 it may very well have $400 M in revenue (compared to about $34 M in 2007) and earn $200 M in net income. If my expectation proves correct and IMMR trades at 15 times earnings in 2009, it will then be a $3 B market cap company, that is, 7.6 times more than what it is now.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

I said it all about IMMR's story in my latest update. I'll just patiently keep holding the stock for the long term.

IMMR is coming back nicely, but I still find it hard to understand how come the stock is below the price it was when the all significant "Nokia news" was made public. Hopefully in 2008 the company's business model and its licensing agreements will become clearer for everybody to see. I expect IMMR to close 2008 comfortably above $20, but the real multi-bagger impulse will probably happen just in 2009, when the company starts getting fat revenue and profit numbers.

Terrible 7.8% drop without a reason. The lower IMMR stays over the next 6 months the higher it will go over the next 6 months. I say this because this way the $50 M approved for buying back shares will buy back more shares and that's going to mean a higher EPS and higher stock price in the future, when those mobile phones using the VibeTonz technology hit the marketplace and IMMR starts collecting a small amount (I say $1, but the amount wasn't disclosed) for each unit sold.

So people can sell IMMR all they want, I won't bother about it at all. I see 6 bags of profit in IMMR over a two to three years time period and I'll keep holding the stock.

Business Editors/Health/Medical Writers

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--December 11, 2007--Immersion Corporation
(Nasdaq:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology
(http://www.immersion.com/corporate/), today announced that Immersion Medical
has launched a new module for its CathLabVR "Surgical Simulator
(http://www.immersion.com/medical/products/endovascular/). The new
Transcatheter Aortic Valve module helps train physicians for minimally invasive
coronary valve replacement.

An estimated 450,000 patients in the U.S. suffer from severe stenosis
(narrowing) of coronary valves, which impedes blood flow and can lead to heart
failure. More than half of the patients affected in the U.S. are over 75, an
age group expected to increase in the coming years. The medical needs of many
patients with severe aortic stenosis have been unmet.(1) Patients may exhibit
few symptoms until an abrupt change occurs, and surgeons and patients are less
likely to opt for invasive surgery to treat stenosis that is not pronounced, a
situation that can lead to life threatening symptoms or death. Even when
stenosis is known to be severe, open heart surgery may not be possible if the
patient s health is compromised in other ways. Minimally invasive valve
replacements can provide a safer alternative to open-heart surgery with shorter
procedure and recovery times. It is likely that with a less invasive treatment
more patients could and would be treated. Therefore, valve replacement
interventions are seen by many as the future standard of care for many high
risk patients. With its realistic surgical simulations, Immersion Medical s
new cardiac surgical simulation module can help accelerate learning and
adoption of these minimally invasive life-saving procedures.

The CathLabVR Surgical Simulator s cardiac surgery module was created to keep
pace with advancements in technologies and techniques, said Kevin Kunkler,
M.D., vice president, and medical director of Immersion Medical. The module
helps doctors-in-training to learn the core concepts of these procedures and
surgeons and interventionalists to master the necessary steps and gain
experience and knowledge transferable to real-life cases.

With eight cases that provide experience with four anatomies, the Transcatheter
Aortic Valve surgical simulation module provides practice in:


Navigation through either the femoral artery or through the apex of the left
ventricle
Balloon inflation to pre-dilate the aortic valve
Use of fluoroscopy, cineangiography, and contrast injection to visualize and
measure the aortic valve and determine a site for its correct placement

The CathLabVR Surgical Simulator uses actual diagnostic and therapeutic
devices, such as catheters, balloons, stents, and distal protection devices. A
procedural-based system, it allows trainees to practice and repeat cases of
varying levels of difficulty and to experience and manage complications. The
system s appropriately responsive physiology is reflected in vital-sign
changes, hemodynamic wave tracings, and patient audio responses that enhance
the decision-making process. An added benefit is the realistic haptic feedback
that mimics the feel of the procedure. Visual aides, including the virtual 3D
anatomy model and live fluoroscopy, help trainees understand vascular anatomy
and device operation. A comprehensive performance report, automatically
generated after completion of the surgical simulation, allows objective
assessment of the user.

The CathLabVR Surgical Simulator provides a realistic training environment to
help practicing physicians safely train in new procedures to keep pace with
medical innovations. The system can also help prepare fellows to meet the
requirements of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education
(ACGME), which call for a minimum of 300 cardiac catheterizations before
training in coronary interventions, followed by a minimum of 12 months and at
least 250 interventions.

(1) Leon, Martin B. 2006. Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Rationale,
Early Clinical Results. Columbia University Medical Center Cardiovascular
Research Foundation.

About Immersion Medical, Inc. (www.immersionmedical.com)

Immersion Medical, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets computer-based
surgical simulation training systems (http://www.immersion.com/medical/surgical
_ sim.php) worldwide. The medical and surgical simulators integrate proprietary
computer software and tactile feedback robotics to create highly realistic
medical simulations that help train clinicians. The company s key product
lines are the Virtual IV intravenous simulator, Endoscopy AccuTouch ®
Simulator, CathLabVR " surgical simulator, and LaparoscopyVR " surgical
simulation system.

About Immersion (www.immersion.com)

Founded in 1993, Immersion Corporation is a recognized leader in developing,
licensing, and marketing digital touch technology and products. Using
Immersion s advanced touch feedback technology
(http://www.immersion.com/corporate/products/), electronic user interfaces can
be made more productive, compelling, entertaining, or safer. Immersion s
technology is deployed across automotive, entertainment, industrial controls,
medical training, mobility, and three-dimensional simulation markets.
Immersion s patent portfolio includes over 700 issued or pending patents in
the U.S. and other countries.

Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and
uncertainties, as well as assumptions that, if they never materialize or prove
incorrect, could cause the results of Immersion Corporation and its
consolidated subsidiaries to differ materially from those expressed or implied
by such forward-looking statements.
All statements, other than the statements of historical fact, are statements
that may be deemed forward-looking statements, including any projections of
earnings, revenues, or other financial matters; any statements of the plans,
strategies, and objectives of management for future operations; any statements
concerning the benefits of medical simulators or continued customer acceptance
of medical simulators; or consumer and market acceptance of force feedback
products in general; proposed products or services; any statements regarding
future economic conditions or performance; statements of belief; and any
statement or assumptions underlying any of the foregoing. Immersion s actual
results might differ materially from those stated or implied by such
forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our
business which include, but are not limited to, delay in or failure to achieve
commercial demand for our products or a delay in or failure to achieve the
acceptance of force feedback as a critical user experience.

For a more detailed discussion of these factors, and other factors that could
cause actual results to vary materially, interested parties should review the
risk factors listed in our most current Form 10-Q, which is on file with the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this
press release reflect our beliefs and predictions as of the date of this
release. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements
as a result of financial, business, or any other developments occurring after
the date of this release.
Immersion, the Immersion logo, AccuTouch, CathLabVR, and LaparoscopyVR are
trademarks of Immersion Corporation in the United States and other countries.
All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Mobile phones from Samsung, LG Electronics and Nokia using IMMR's technology will be launched throughout 2008 and 2009.

Due to IMMR's licensing model, we know IMMR will receive a percentage of each unit sold using its technology, so, since none was sold yet, the revenues coming from these agreements so far were almost irrelevant.

But I expect huge revenue and profit growth for IMMR in 2008 and 2009.

I'll just patiently keep holding IMMR for the long term.

It appears IMMR made a double bottom at its $12 support level. Now we just need a close above $14.5 with volume above average to confirm this technical view.

Fundamentally the company is absurdly attractive, but one needs to know it well to see it. People just looking at revenues and profits won't understand it.

I see 6 bags or more in profits coming from IMMR in about three years time and I'll hold the stock for the long term. 

David

I think that there is something BIG that I miss.
If every mobile phone manufacturers have Immersion technology inside
IMMR must be more than 10B company right now:


http://www.unwiredview.com/2007/09/10/lg-ku990-viewty-review-almost-everything-you-need-to-know-about-it/

Notbeln

IMMR may create a huge competition to Apple's iPhone with its technology (through the other phone manufacturers). iPhone projected sales are in tens of millions, whereas Nokia's punch can be worth well over 100M units sold. In the UK and in Europe people pay in pounds and euros what Americans pay in dollars in the US. Also, I heard from my Chinese friends that a lot of folks on China are yearning to shell out up to and over a grand for a cell trinket. I will hold IMMR as long as David does.

Quote from: notbeln on December 28, 2007, 05:07:51 PM
David

I think that there is something BIG that I miss.
If every mobile phone manufacturers have Immersion technology inside
IMMR must be more than 10B company right now:

http://www.unwiredview.com/2007/09/10/lg-ku990-viewty-review-almost-everything-you-need-to-know-about-it/

Notbeln

Hi Notbeln, not all mobile phone manufacturers established a licensing agreement with IMMR, just three of the top 5, namely, Nokia, Samsung and LG.

Why $10 B market cap? That seems too much, I'm looking for about $3 B in a couple of years, that is, 7.7 times more than the current $0.39 B market cap. I get to $3 B by thinking about 300 million mobile phones sold each year using the VibeTonz technology, $1 for each phone to IMMR gives me about $300 M in annual revenues. I think the net profit margin of this will be really high, because the technology was already developed and the costs of adding it to the mobile phones will be on the manufacturers side. So I say the net profit margin will be about 50%, and this gives me $150 M in annual net income, which multiplied by a p/e of 20 gives me a $3 B market cap.

But this is a rough estimate, nobody knows what is the actual percentage IMMR will get from each mobile phone sold (nobody except management, it is not a public information - I guess $1, or about 1% (average selling price is a bit higher than $100), because IMMR got 1.67% in a litigation with Sony), or how many mobile phones will actually be sold with the VibeTonz technology in the future.

Quote from: berloga on December 28, 2007, 08:55:04 PM
IMMR may create a huge competition to Apple's iPhone with its technology (through the other phone manufacturers). iPhone projected sales are in tens of millions, whereas Nokia's punch can be worth well over 100M units sold. In the UK and in Europe people pay in pounds and euros what Americans pay in dollars in the US. Also, I heard from my Chinese friends that a lot of folks on China are yearning to shell out up to and over a grand for a cell trinket. I will hold IMMR as long as David does.

One of the critics to the iPhone is that it lacks tactile feedback. It would be great if Apple reached an agreement with IMMR, but that's something we'll only know after it happens.

I don't know for how long I will own IMMR, but one thing I'm sure: This isn't the right time to sell it, just before tens of millions or maybe even hundreds of millions of mobile phones with the VibeTonz technology hit the market in 2008.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

David

Is this right that Sony will not use IMMR technology in the next playstations?

Best,
Vova

It's impossible or IMMR isn't alone?!

< In a patent filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office last June, the new BlackBerry device will have a keyboard that retracts into the device in order to create more room on the screen, Mr. Sharma says. It will also have what is called tactile response mechanism akin to Nintendo's Wii controller that vibrates based on input from the user.In a patent filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office last June, the new BlackBerry device will have a keyboard that retracts into the device in order to create more room on the screen, Mr. Sharma says. It will also have what is called tactile response mechanism akin to Nintendo's Wii controller that vibrates based on input from the user.>

http://www.financialpost.com/money/wealthyboomer/story.html?id=180578

Best,
Vova

Quote from: notbeln on January 03, 2008, 01:17:19 AM
David

Is this right that Sony will not use IMMR technology in the next playstations?

Best,
Vova

Sony already paid $150 M or so to IMMR for a perpetual license, it doesn't matter if Sony uses IMMR technology in the future or not, they already paid for it ... there won't be any revenues coming from Sony in the future.

QuoteIn a patent filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office last June, the new BlackBerry device will have a keyboard that retracts into the device in order to create more room on the screen, Mr. Sharma says. It will also have what is called tactile response mechanism akin to Nintendo's Wii controller that vibrates based on input from the user.

I'm sure IMMR will fight for its rights in the court of law and it will win. IMMR was into tactile feedback 10 years before RIMM even thought about it and has 600 plus patents covering all aspects of the technology.

Anyway, even if BlackBerry uses tactile feedback and doesn't pay a cent to IMMR, that doesn't change my investment case in IMMR shares:

300 million mobile phones using IMMR technology sold annually*$1 per unit = $300 M in revenues => $150 M in net income => $3 B market cap => 7 to 8 bags of profits for the Main Portfolio.

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

FYI

http://reseller.co.nz/reseller.nsf/opin/0E10A30A80FCF1C1CC2573C80074B7F2

Vova

Quote from: notbeln on January 07, 2008, 04:44:37 AM
FYI

http://reseller.co.nz/reseller.nsf/opin/0E10A30A80FCF1C1CC2573C80074B7F2

Vova

Thanks for this link Vova :)

«9. The year of haptic feedback
When playing console video games, your handheld game controller shakes and rumbles to coincide with on-screen explosions, crashes, gunshots and grenade detonations. Motion conveys subtle information to the user. That "force feedback" is called haptics.

Haptics will show up with shocking frequency this year in cell phones and other mobile devices. In some cases, haptics will help compensate for the disappearance of buttons in cell phones. A little vibration will tell your fingers when you've successfully pressed an on-screen button as a substitute for the tactile feedback from a real button that actually moves. But haptics will also return to its roots by improving game play on cell phones.

At the start of this year, there were only two cell phones with haptics available from major U.S. carriers -- the Motorola RAZR2 V8 and the LG Voyager. By the end of the year, there will be dozens. The feature may even show up in a new iPhone this year. (Apple patents indicate a great deal of interest in haptics by the company.)

One way or the other, haptics will shake up the gadget industry in 2008.»

Despite IMMR's awesome technology, patents, business model and licensing agreements with 3 of the top 5 mobile phone manufacturers, the stock still turned bearish on the chart, falling 8.8% in today's session alone.

I was early when buying this stock and that translates into a 47% loss for the Main Portfolio holding IMMR. Fundamentally I understand what's happening:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42981;image)

The two analysts covering the stock still have their 2008 EPS estimates at $0.07, so investors look at this and figure the forward p/e is 151. But I think the $0.07 EPS estimate is a complete nonsense, since IMMR will go from zero mobile phones sold using its technology in Q3 2007 to potentially hundreds of millions in 2008. If not hundreds of millions in 2008, certainly in 2009.

I'm positive that 2009 EPS will be in the neighborhood of $5. This is $150 M net income divided by 30 million shares outstanding.

So, $5 EPS in 2009 plus the current $4.6 in net cash per share gives me a liquidation value of $9.6 per share in 2009. If the business ceased to exist in late 2009 it would still be worth $9.6 a share, in my view. So investors now are paying just about $1 per share, or $30 M, for the next 15 to 20 years of profitability, because I believe haptics will be with us, starting in 2008, for many years to come.

In other terms, IMMR is trading at just 2 times forward earnings, and it should be trading at least at 15 times forward earnings. But if you just look at the analysts estimates, then you would think IMMR trades at 150 times forward earnings, and then you would consider it expensive and not buy/sell.

Only time can bring the truth into the surface and justice to the stock price.

My lesson here is, as Peter Lynch would say "wait for the earnings, there's no point in buying too soon".

Despite the bearish chart, I continue to believe I was wrong on timing, but not on the long term outlook for this company/stock, therefore I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

Alternative from AAPL:

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/10/25/apple-patent-filed-for-tactile-touchscreen-raised-indented-keys.html

???

Quote from: notbeln on January 08, 2008, 08:19:33 AM
Alternative from AAPL:

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/10/25/apple-patent-filed-for-tactile-touchscreen-raised-indented-keys.html

???

This doesn't change IMMR's investment story because Nokia will never buy a license from Apple, right? And Nokia sells 400 million plus mobile phones a year.

Probably IMMR is preparing a lawsuit against AAPL, like it did with Sony. Anyway, on this Apple issue, IMMR management says it is very different to apply for a patent (anyone can do that, even you or me) and to have an approved patent.

Thanks for the info :)

Here we go!

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS176704+07-Jan-2008+PRN20080107

<Another product solution is Visteon's Integrated Center Panel, featured as
part of the sensory category, which ties together many of the vehicle's
technologies. It is the place where climate, audio and multimedia controls are
stylishly packaged for easy user interaction. This ultra-thin, twisted helix-
shaped touch panel uses field-effect switches to enable a clean, "dead-front"
look in situations when the center panel buttons do not need to be visible.
When a user's hand nears the panel, the vehicle senses it and the buttons
automatically illuminate to show an extremely user-friendly human-machine
interface (HMI). When a user pushes one of the buttons to select a function,
the switch is actuated and gives haptic feedback -- a tactile vibration like a
pulse -- to lend a more natural button feel and let the user know his or her
command is being processed. >


Best,
Vova

How many will be in the market in 2008?!

http://www.vibetonz.com/

Why author so pessimistic?
It's good news from Motorola!

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=238&mn=35371&pt=msg&mid=3835784

 :o

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22545567

Am I boring?

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aID=102231.93798.114374

Quote from: notbeln on January 14, 2008, 04:25:21 AM
Am I boring?

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aID=102231.93798.114374

Absolutely not notbeln, you're doing a great job here in IMMR's thread, thanks a lot :)

I've written too many times that IMMR can be a 7 bagger or so (10 bagger from today's close, to a $3 B market cap). Today I'll tell you about the risks to my prediction:

1) I estimate that IMMR will receive about 1%, or $1, for each mobile phone sold using its VibeTonz technology, but my estimate can be far away from the real number. It is possible that IMMR will receive not $1, but just, say, 10 cents per mobile phone and that would reduce my revenue projections to 1/10.

I thought 1% because SONY was convicted to pay 1.67% of the revenues it had on products using patented IMMR technology. Now IMMR can be signing licensing deals at 0.1% or even 2% or 3%, I'm not sure and there's no public information on this issue.

2) Instead of hundreds of millions of mobile phones, perhaps there will be just, say, 50 million phones sold using the VibeTonz. Using my 1% fee on $100 phones (on average), IMMR would get just $50 M in annual revenue, not $300 M which is my central case.

3) The third risk is that I've underestimated the costs of helping Nokia, LG and Samsung to install and produce the phones with the VibeTonz. I've always considered that IMMR's net profit margin will be really high, at 50%, since the company is just licensing an already developed technology. IMMR probably won't have meaningful production or marketing costs, but I'm not sure. Also, since the tax rate can be something like 40%, maybe 50% net profit margin will be unattainable. 

So, the variables of analysis in 2008, but especially in 2009, will be:

1) How much IMMR revenue in each phone?
2) How many phones?
3) At what cost?

I remain confident that IMMR's long term value will be much higher than the $300 M at today's close.

Hi Everybody
I was in holydays in the southdern  hemisfere (actualy in Salvador Bahia) about in one month and even my portfolio isn`t the MAIN in it all, it is very confortable to see all my picks (CIMT SDTH CHME IMMR ASTI) beeing  about 10%more than they was one month ago... surpassing all the rollover coast and gloom/doom the market has recently been
This is just to give thumbs up to David (or do I say AVE CESAR) for the long term scope investment he gave us...
By the way IMMR was upgraded today by Thomas Weisel to market weight from Underweight

QuoteHi Everybody
I was in holydays in the southdern  hemisfere (actualy in Salvador Bahia) about in one month ...

That's a great idea Rmagos, spending the winter season in Brazil instead of Portugal ... my wife also has that desire, spend December, Christmas and New Year in the Southern hemisphere ... maybe next year :)

Quoteven my portfolio isn`t the MAIN in it all, it is very confortable to see all my picks (CIMT SDTH CHME IMMR ASTI) beeing  about 10%more than they was one month ago... surpassing all the rollover coast and gloom/doom the market has recently been. This is just to give thumbs up to David (or do I say AVE CESAR) for the long term scope investment he gave us...

This is great for you Rmagos, but of course I'll remain accountable for the whole Main, which has been underperforming the SPY. But thanks for your kind words :)

QuoteBy the way IMMR was upgraded today by Thomas Weisel to market weight from Underweight

IMMR is almost down to where it was before it won $150 M from Sony and 44% below the price it was when the terrific Nokia news was released, this is insane!!!

Just because the cash still isn't in the company's pockets it is clear that it will be ... in this case the market is obsessed with the multiple valuation and incapable of discounting the future.

I'll hold IMMR.

fyi:
IMMR: Thomas Weisel Ups to Market Weight from Underweight; Analyst Notes
Monday , January 14, 2008 07:52ET
Issuer: Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR)
Analyst Firm:  Thomas Weisel Partners
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Market Weight (from Underweight)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.

Quote from: la-onda on January 24, 2008, 08:14:15 PM
fyi:
IMMR: Thomas Weisel Ups to Market Weight from Underweight; Analyst Notes
Monday , January 14, 2008 07:52ET
Issuer: Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR)
Analyst Firm:  Thomas Weisel Partners
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Market Weight (from Underweight)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.

Thanks for the information la-onda :)

Indeed, valuation makes sense. IMMR has about $140 M in cash and it is already profitable. The market cap is just $268 M, so the future earnings are valued at just $128 M. I say IMMR will profit more than that per year, starting in 2009 :o

Anyway, IMMR is a good example of what "early" may mean when talking about small caps ... if the Bear wakes up people just look at the facts and disregard the future. And the current fact is that IMMR trades at about 100 times earnings ... of course, the company still didn't receive anything (well, almost anything), because the mobile phones equipped with its VibeTonz technology are just now reaching the marketplace. IMMR collects a fee for each unit sold.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term, despite the horrible chart.

 :o :o :o

It's about STANDARD!


http://www.ohio.com/business/14478332.html

Hi notbeln, indeed, all touch screens should have some form of haptics technology.

The LG Voyager started selling in late November 2007:

LG Voyager Release Date (http://www.verizonvoyager.org/news/lg-voyager-release-date)
October 11th, 2007

Now there are a lot of them selling on Ebay for about $400 (http://cell-phones.search.ebay.com/verizon-voyager_Cell-Phones-PDAs_W0QQ_trksidZm37QQfromZR40QQsacatZ15032).

I've been saying that IMMR will get about $1 for each mobile phone sold, or 1%. But 1% of this Voyager is $4, not $1.

Since the Voyager is already available in stores, I expect to see at least a small contribution from LG to IMMR's 4th quarter results. But the big punch to the upside in IMMR's revenues and profits will probably come when Nokia launches its Nokia S60 Touch series:

Video of Nokia's iPhone Copy - the Nokia S60 (http://www.dialaphone.co.uk/blog/?p=726)

Putting "Touch" in the name tells me that Nokia will use the tactile feedback as one of its main weapons against Apple's iPhone, which doesn't have tactile feedback.

«Unfortunately, Nokia haven't issued a launch date for the S60 Touch, all they have said is, "These technologies will be available for all S60 device manufacturers during 2008."»

2008 sounds good.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term (I wish I found it just now ::))

nice break out on volume 

I bought some shares ;)

I picked up some more yesterday... ;D

Quote from: stock on January 31, 2008, 03:16:22 PM
nice break out on volume 

Indeed, nice 14.5% pop on volume above average :)

Unfortunately even after this jump I'm still down 51% on IMMR ??? Now I know what Peter Lynch meant when he wrote "wait for the earnings" ... the fact is that when the going gets tough investors just find safety in one thing and one thing only: the earnings yield!

And as potential buyers looked at IMMR, they saw the earnings yield was less than 1%, so they just walked away. And what about the future? Well, again, when things get ugly, people don't care about the future prospects of a company, they just fear losing money. And they only find safety in an attractive earnings yield, this is why a company with a 5-10 reliable earnings multiple (that is, a 10 to 20% earnings yield), usually holds up better in the face of a general market decline.

Anyway, IMMR's prospects never changed and I still see it as a $3 B market cap in two to three years time, that is, 10 times more than what it is now.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

A bit of a tough day. Back to a support area. Looking forward to seeing some volume come in here.

uc.

Sold my TBSI position and put that money to work in IMMR today.  Hope to see a rebound from here  ;)

Quote from: usedcasting on February 04, 2008, 01:03:39 PM
A bit of a tough day. Back to a support area. Looking forward to seeing some volume come in here.

uc.

Quote from: tokyopua on February 05, 2008, 01:07:11 AM
Sold my TBSI position and put that money to work in IMMR today.  Hope to see a rebound from here  ;)

Well, since tokyopua bought IMMR I guess you don't have to worry about short term timing anymore usedcasting :)

2008 will bring plenty of good news for IMMR and the company will show completely different numbers (to the better) in terms of revenues and profits. I think the past is of little use when evaluating IMMR.

I'll continue holding this stock for the long term and find it odd that it is the biggest loser of the Main (even though I already figured out why this happened - the current earnings yield is too low to attract bargain hunters, and investors are not looking into the future now).

Kangaroo Media Settles Immersion Patent Complaint >KTV.T

Feb 4, 2008 08:42:12 (ET)


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Kangaroo Media Inc. (KTV.T) and Immersion Entertainment LLC have signed definitive licensing and settlement agreements to end a complaint filed by Immersion alleging infringement of certain of its U.S. patents.

Immersion has granted Kangaroo exclusive worldwide rights to its intellectual property portfolio until Dec. 31, 2010. Thereafter, the exclusive worldwide rights may be extended until the expiration of the last Immersion-issued patent.

Under the Patent License Agreement, Immersion has also granted Kangaroo rights in all issued patents and pending applications relating to Immersion's intellectual property portfolio and technology.

The agreement provided for a payment by Kangaroo to Immersion of $2 million on Feb. 1, in addition to payments of royalties on covered sales retroactive to Jan. 1, 2008. The agreement is also subject to minimum royalties of $1.0 million for each of 2008 and 2009.

At the end of 2010, Kangaroo will have the option to retain the exclusive worldwide rights to Immersion's intellectual property portfolio, subject to minimum yearly royalty payments.

Kangaroo Media, Montreal, makes hand-held wireless audiovisual multi-functional entertainment systems.

Immersion Entertainment, Atlanta, is a mobile content provider, specializing in the wireless distribution of entertainment-related content.

-Judy McKinnon; 416-306-2100; [email protected]

Thanks for posting the following news Tokyopua, I didn't see it anywhere else:

QuoteThe agreement provided for a payment by Kangaroo to Immersion of $2 million on Feb. 1, in addition to payments of royalties on covered sales retroactive to Jan. 1, 2008. The agreement is also subject to minimum royalties of $1.0 million for each of 2008 and 2009.

The nice thing about this is that it will go down directly to net income before taxes. If we take out 40% of taxes it gives us $1.2 M in net income in Q1 2008 exclusively coming from this, or about 4 cents per share. IMMR earned 2 cents per share in the latest reported quarter (Q3 2007).

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43562;image)

As you can see above, IMMR's Royalty and license revenue jumped 117% in Q3 2007. But this is nothing compared to what's coming when Nokia launches its mobile phones with the VibeTonz technology into the marketplace, which is expected to happen during the course of 2008.

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

mmersion Schedules Release Date and Earnings Conference Call for Fourth Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Tuesday February 12, 8:30 am ET

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Immersion Corporation (Nasdaq:IMMR - News), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, will announce its fourth quarter 2007 results on Thursday, February 28, 2008.

uc.

Interesting article

http://thetechnologycircle.blogspot.com/2008/02/lg-launch-three-new-devices.html

<Dr Ahn went as far as predicting that ½ of the mobile phones in the world will be touch in the "next few years." >
::)

Best,
Vova

It's cool! Must read!

http://www.immersion.com/mobility/press/haptics_mobile-ue_nov07v1.pdf

Thanks for the informations usedcasting and notbeln :)

IMMR continues to be dead money and the biggest loser of the Main, which is difficult to understand, given the company's long term prospects.

Anyway, we have some news out that can be the catalyst to really push IMMR higher, because those revenues and fat profits will start rolling in (finally).

Take a look at Nokia's new baby: Nokia N95 8GB Can you feel the VibeTonz? (http://www.equitygroups.com/nasd/immr/messages/132544.html)

And look at the release date in the UK, much sooner than I anticipated: Nokia N95 UK Release Date Announced (http://darlamack.blogs.com/darlamack/2007/01/nokia_n95_uk_re.html)

In the 2nd week of March means a small contribution to the 1st quarter but a full contribution to the 2nd. Nokia couldn't wait anymore, it's coming!

I expect IMMR to say something about this and hopefully disclose some more of its licensing agreements (at the upcoming earnings release (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080212/20080212005012.html?.v=1)) so that investors can clearly see the company's long term investment story. If the real story resembles what I imagine, IMMR will be worth about $100 a share in a two to three years time. But I still need some confirmations.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

ANOTHER INTERESTING NEWS RELEASE TODAY

Haptics Receiving Broad Recognition


     
     

Haptics Receiving Broad Recognition


Business Editors/Technology Editors
     
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--February 20, 2008--Immersion Corporation
(Nasdaq:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of haptics (touch feedback
http://www.immersion.com/corporate/haptics/index.php) technology, announces
that the benefits of its technology for human-computer interactions (HCI) have
been recognized by several industry authorities.
     
Computerworld magazine named haptic feedback one of the top 10 trends in 2008
that will fuel the best year ever in personal technology. (1) Its December
2007 article cited the long-standing use of haptics in video console games and
stated that, in 2008, haptics will help compensate for the disappearance of
buttons in cell phones and will return to its roots by improving game play on
cell phones.
     
Immersion`s TouchSense ® components for portable devices, which provide
tactile feedback in response to touchscreen interactions, won Electronic Design
magazine`s Best Electronic Design 2007 Competition in the
Components/Displays/Touchscreen Technology category.(2) The awards point out
the technologies judged by editors to be the most significant to advancing
electronic design.
     
Immersion`s VibeTonz ® technology for mobile phones was included in Hot Trends
40: Global Trends to See, a compilation of 40 rising global trends identified
as having a high growth potential.(3) The 282-page book was published in
January 2008 by Korea Trend Research Institute in cooperation with the
International Design Trend Center.
     
The recognition we`ve received from these and other distinguished authorities
corroborates independent research and the real-world experiences of our
customers, said Immersion CEO Victor Viegas. Haptics can help improve the
user experience for a broad range of products in many industries.
     
Research shows that haptic feedback (also known as tactile, touch,
vibrotactile, or force feedback) has been found to:
     

Increase user speed and accuracy(4)
Reduce complication and stress(5-9)
Improve user satisfaction(4,7,10)
     
More information on research performed by companies and universities can be
found in the Immersion white paper The Value of Haptics, available at:
http://www.immersion.com/valueofhaptics.php.
     
(1) Elgan, Mike. 2007. Personal Tech 2008: Top 10 Trends. Computerworld.
December 31.
     
(2) Penton Media. 2007. Penton s Electronic Design Magazine Announces Winners
of Best Electronic Design Competition for 2007. December 10.
     
(3) The Korea Times. 2008. Recent Books: Hot Trends 40. January 4.
     
(4) Brewster, Stephen, Faraz Chohan, and Lorna Brown. 2007. Tactile Feedback
for Mobile Interactions. Proceedings of CHI 2007.
     
(5) Wickens, Christopher D. 2002. Multiple resources and performance
prediction. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 3: 159  177.
     
(6) Burke, Jennifer L., Matthew S. Prewett, and Linda R. Elliot. 2006.
Comparing the Effects of Visual-Audio and Visual-Tactile Feedback on User
Performance: A Meta-analysis. International Conference on Multimodal
Interfaces. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Multimodal
Interfaces, 108-117.
     
(7) Poupyrev, Ivan, Shigeaki Maruyama, and Rekimoto Jun. 2002. Ambient Touch:
Designing Tactile Interfaces for Handheld Devices. CHI Letters 4 (2): 51  60.
     
(8) Van Veen, Hendrik and J.B.F. Van Erp. 2001. Tactile Information
Presentation in The Cockpit. Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on
Haptic Human-Computer Interaction, 174  181.
     
(9) Brown, Lorna M. and John Williamson. 2003. Shake2Talk: Multimodal Messaging
for Interpersonal Communication. CHI '03 extended abstracts on Human factors in
computing systems, 854  855.
     
(10) Serafin, Colleen, Ranier Heers, Michael Tschirhart, Chris Ullrich, and
Christophe Ramstein. 2007. User Experience in the U.S. and Germany of
In-Vehicle Touch Screens with Integrated Haptic and Auditory Feedback.
Proceedings of SAE World Congress 2007.
     
About Immersion (www.immersion.com)
     
Founded in 1993, Immersion Corporation is a recognized leader in developing,
licensing, and marketing digital touch technology and products. Using
Immersion`s advanced touch feedback technology
(http://www.immersion.com/corporate/products/), electronic user interfaces can
be made more productive, compelling, entertaining, or safer. Immersion s
technology is deployed across automotive, entertainment, industrial controls,
medical training, mobility, and three-dimensional simulation markets.
Immersions patent portfolio includes over 700 issued or pending patents ìn US and other countries


PS Sorry again for clicking the wrong button but at this time of the night....

Finally, great news out of IMMR:

• Immersion VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback Platform in Over 10 Million Mobile Phones Around the World (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080225/20080225005405.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

I expect the stock to rally strongly due to this news. I'll analyze the financial impact of this over the next update (even though the press release lacks financial details).

I don't believe that management closed the deals with Samsung and LG at 0.1% of sales  ???

Quote from: notbeln on February 25, 2008, 11:00:54 AM
I don't believe that management closed the deals with Samsung and LG at 0.1% of sales  ???

How did you get to that figure notbeln? The company didn't disclose that information.

Thanks.

Only because of market reaction today. I thouhgt IMMR would rise much more than 8% , after
10M mobile phones sold!!!

Best,
Vova

Now after I read third Quarter 2007 report I see that I'm not right!

http://immr.client.shareholder.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=272798

< We also reached a significant level of third-quarter revenue of $930,000 in our Mobility business," said Victor Viegas, Immersion CEO, president, and chairman of the board. >

But we know that LG and Samsung sold much less than 10M phones!

Best,
Vova

Quote from: notbeln on February 25, 2008, 01:55:11 PM
Only because of market reaction today. I thouhgt IMMR would rise much more than 8% , after
10M mobile phones sold!!!

Best,
Vova

The information just started spreading Vova, or do you think all eyes are on IMMR?

If "the market", that is, existing and potential investors understood IMMR's technology and especially its business model the stock would be at $40 now, not $9.5, in my view.

Quote< We also reached a significant level of third-quarter revenue of $930,000 in our Mobility business," said Victor Viegas, Immersion CEO, president, and chairman of the board. >

But we know that LG and Samsung sold much less than 10M phones!

In the 3rd quarter the business was still incipient, watch how VibeTonz was shipped almost by as much in the first two months of 2008 as it was in the whole year of 2007. 

I jumped in IMMR...this morning.  It seemed to have bottomed the past month...but I was waiting for a catalyst.  I wouldn't have seen the news unless David had posted it this morning...thanks.  I jumped in at 8.85. ;D

Quote from: kslifka on February 25, 2008, 04:09:58 PM
I jumped in IMMR...this morning.  It seemed to have bottomed the past month...but I was waiting for a catalyst.  I wouldn't have seen the news unless David had posted it this morning...thanks.  I jumped in at 8.85. ;D

Great timing, applaud! 

I agree with David, this news is likely to move us up over the course of days or weeks as the stock isnt widely followed.

TA from TTF, just FYi:

Of yesterday's news ...

• Immersion VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback Platform in Over 10 Million Mobile Phones Around the World (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080225/20080225005405.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

... the most important paragraph is the first:

«Immersion Corporation, a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, today announced that over 10 million mobile phones with VibeTonz® technology have been shipped by licensees, including 5.5 million shipped in 2007.»

This information tells me two things:

1 - We can expect a significant financial impact in IMMR in the 4th quarter 2007 results, to be announced next Thursday after the close. I say that of the 5.5 million units shipped still in 2007, 4.5 million or so were in the 4th quarter.

My expectation is that IMMR gets about $1 for each unit shipped, which is almost all pure profit (before taxes). So this means about $4.5 M in revenue and I say $2.4 M in net income, using an effective tax rate of 40% (and costs of $500 K).

As comparison, IMMR had a loss of ($1.98 M) in Q4 2006 and its net income was just $493,000 in Q3 2007. The $2.4 M net income would translate into about $0.08 EPS for the quarter, against expectations of 0 cents (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=IMMR).

2 - Things are accelerating and the 10 million mobile phones using VibeTonz are still without Nokia, which sells more than 400 million mobile phones a year. Yesterday's press release doesn't make any mention of Nokia, and that shows how IMMR's management is conservative, announcing only the models already in the marketplace or to be there in a very short period of time.

On another issue, I guess they used the weakness in the share price to buy the $50 M worth of stock they said they would buy. $50 M at an average price of, say, $10, would add up to 5 million shares, reducing the share count from 30 million to 25 million. If this happened and my net income estimate is right, EPS would then be 10 cents in Q4 2007.

I spent the day yesterday reading people's thoughts about IMMR in some message boards. It was clear to me that almost nobody (I could say nobody) really understood IMMR's business model. People don't know that they sell licenses and then receive cash on a per unit sold basis. They don't know that the court settled the Sony case obligating Sony to pay 1.67% of the revenues it had with products using IMMR's technology. Everybody says IMMR is a mystery, because they don't disclose how much money they'll make from each and every licensee and doesn't provide any objective guidance. I think management does this so they can negotiate every license without being tied up by previous deals.

For example, what would Nokia say if IMMR sold them a license for 1.5% of revenue if they knew that Samsung's license was for 1%? Or how would LG feel if they knew that IMMR settled for 1% with Nokia while LG pays 2%? They wouldn't understand "hey, they sell more volume" as an answer, not from a business partner.

Looking at the future, I see IMMR as the World leader in haptics technology which will be used in most electronic devices. IMMR already developed its technology, spending many years and hundreds of millions to do it, and now it is ready to have very fat profit margins. They'll collect about 1% of the revenues of every electronic device sold using their technology, which can be huge.

My view continues to be that IMMR will be at least a $3 B market cap company in a couple of years, that is, about 12 times more than what it is now.

The opportunity seems so clear to me that I feel sad about owning just 3.6% of capital in this stock. This is too little, considering the potential and the safety of the investment. I don't think I was wrong when buying at $20, just early. We've talked about this in previous updates a lot, I believe that at some point investors forgot the long term story and paid attention just to hard facts like revenues and EPS multiples. And those showed a very overvalued picture, when, if we consider 12 months down the road, IMMR is deeply undervalued (there weren't any mobile phones with VibeTonz in the past, therefore no meaningful revenues, therefore no meaningful earnings - everything is changing now).

I'm going to do something that I've never done in the past (not that I recall) and I'll use the 50% decline to my advantage by buying another 5% stake in IMMR. I'll increase my exposure to this stock from 3.6% to 8.6%.

I don't think this is an unfair practice, since you can do the same with your portfolio. I picked the stock at the wrong time, but there's no rule saying that I can't increase my exposure now that the trend is turning bullish again and there's more evidence that my long term fundamental case was right all along.

In the future, if I feel like I made a mistake today I'll correct that mistake by reducing exposure again or eliminating it completely. But as it is now I feel that I need more IMMR in the Main Portfolio and I need it now!

The Trading Plan is:

Buy another 5% of capital in IMMR.

Nice post Dave! Really like your approach here.
I think yesterday's move will draw some attention.

uc.

Looks like a one-month triangle breakout to the upside, which is my cue to buy finally. 

Thanks for the pick David. applaud

Hello ;)

Just to say that I've changed IMMR on the open trades table, to 1 composite trade instead of 2 separate trades, this way the Entry price is an average price:
1500 shares bought @ 20$
2000 shares bought @ 9.85$
= 3500 shares bought @ 14.20$ (average price)

best regards,

I got in ahead of you guys, I added some more at the end of January.  Hmmm, if it pulls back again, maybe I'll add some add more...

I look forward to a very profitable trade on this in the future...

kent

very good move David ..

Now it looks very cute from a technical standpoint .

Looks like IMMR hit the bottom, got to grab some shares tomorrow.. ;D

welcome back Terliso,
I have bought some IMMRs @ 10.07$
cheers
Oliver

Yes Terliso , it looks like a bottom here ..

I'm already back at $10 yesterday .

We could see some interesting things today  :)

Press release that I got from Etrade today about IMMR follows.  Also has a company contact for those more proactive than me in that area  that might want to contact IMMR directly ;)

--------------------------------------------------

atent Study Reveals Immersion's Innovation, Impact, and Leadership in Haptics Technology

Feb 26, 2008 08:30:05 (ET)


SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb 26, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Immersion Corporation (IMMR, Trade ), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology ( http://www.immersion.com/corporate/ ), announces that results of a study on patent impact, prepared by 1790 Analytics, show Immersion ranked first in Pipeline Originality, ahead of companies such as AT&T, Boeing, Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, Medtronic, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, Sony, and Xerox.

IEEE Spectrum magazine, which commissioned the study, selected 9 industry categories and published results of the top 20 companies in each of those industries (180 companies in total) from a dataset of more than 1,300 companies. In the overall rating of Patent Power, Immersion ranked 5 th in its industry category, Computer Peripherals and Storage, which also included Ricoh, Seiko Epson, Hitachi Global Storage, EMC, Konica Minolta, and Symbol Technologies. It ranked 46th in Pipeline Power among the more than 1,300 companies in the original dataset.

Immersion's rankings within its industry category and within the 180 top companies in IEEE Spectrum's published results were:

-- First in Pipeline Originality for its industry and first compared to the top 180 companies across 9 industries. This indicator measures the variety of technologies on which an organization's patents build, based on the concept that inventions created by combining ideas from several different technologies tend to be more original than those that make incremental improvements using the same technology.

-- First in Pipeline Generality for its industry and 17th compared to the top 180 companies. This indicator measures the variety of technologies that build on an organization's patents, based on the notion that patents cited by those in many different fields tend to have more general application than those cited by patents in the same field.

-- Second in Adjusted Pipeline Impact for its industry and 20th compared to the top 180 companies. This indicator measures how frequently an organization's patents from the previous 5 years were cited by patents issued in 2006, adjusted for self-citation. Pipeline Impact reflects both the extent to which an organization is developing its own technology and the impact of its technology on others in the industry.

-- Fourth in Pipeline Growth for its industry and 29th compared to the top 180 companies. This indicator measures an organization's patent activity.

"As the study shows, Immersion has a very strong spirit of innovation, even compared to much larger organizations," said Michael D. Levin, vice president of IP strategy. Levin is responsible for optimizing the creation and acquisition of IP assets, performing competitive analysis, and identifying strategic market opportunities and partnerships. "Our objective is to expand human-computer interface capabilities for a more intuitive, productive, and satisfying user experience, which will lead to high value and return on investment for our customers and licensees.

"Our patent portfolio is strong and relevant to products and applications across a broad range of industries including automotive, consumer electronics, entertainment, industrial controls, medical training, and wireless communications. It includes over 75 patent applications filed and over 50 patents issued in 2007, bringing our total to over 700 issued and pending patents. We are increasing our internal investment in research activities that can generate significant innovations for future growth. In addition, we are collaborating with research groups in universities and businesses to extend haptics technology and explore new applications."

About 1790 Analytics ( http://www.1790analytics.com )

1790 Analytics, which takes its name from the year the first U.S. patent was awarded, works with Fortune 500 companies in technology evaluation, intellectual property licensing, and merger and acquisition targeting and due diligence. The company helps its clients capitalize on intellectual property holdings and understand and evaluate the intellectual property owned by competitors.

About IEEE Spectrum ( http://spectrum.ieee.org/ )

IEEE Spectrum magazine is the flagship publication of the IEEE, the world's largest professional technology association. A monthly magazine for technology innovators, business leaders, and the intellectually curious, IEEE Spectrum explores future technology trends and the impact of those trends on society and business. IEEE Spectrum is read by over 385,000 technology professionals and senior executives worldwide in the high technology sectors of industry, government, and academia.

About Immersion ( www.immersion.com )

Founded in 1993, Immersion Corporation is a recognized leader in developing, licensing, and marketing digital touch technology and products. Using Immersion's advanced touch feedback technology ( http://www.immersion.com/corporate/products/ ), electronic user interfaces can be made more productive, compelling, entertaining, or safer. Immersion's technology is deployed across automotive, entertainment, industrial controls, medical training, mobility, and three-dimensional simulation markets. Immersion's patent portfolio includes over 700 issued or pending patents in the U.S. and other countries.

Immersion and the Immersion logo are trademarks of Immersion Corporation in the United States and other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

SOURCE: Immersion Corporation


A&R Edelman
Angie Ayala, +1-650-762-2952
[email protected]

In at $10.08

I got some on the 25th at 9.42 and got a little more yesterday at 10.04 so hopefully this MACD indicator is valid. sorry I am not a technician so I am not famlliar with using the MACD.
In looking at the slow sochastics both the daily and weekly are over the 50% heading up so at least in the short term is bullish. I pulled it in Barchart.com and it confirms it check it out!

IMMR: Short Interest DN 1.2% to 3.5M in Mid Feb 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 16:21ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) DECREASED 1.2% to 3,456,390 shares as reported in mid-February, 2008.
Based on IMMR's 20-day average daily share volume of 462,010, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

nice chart before earnings:

IMMR's earnings will be out after the close and I'll hold through them.

IMMR Immersion Corp beats by $0.02, beats on revs (10.24 -0.02) 

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.02 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 15.1% year/year to $9.9 mln vs the $9.2 mln consensus. The Co has determined that a correction is needed to the previously issued financial reports for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and for the six and nine months ended June 30, 2007 and September 30, 2007, respectively. 

Report...thoughts.??

Immersion Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Last update: 2/28/2008 4:35:01 PM
SAN JOSE, Calif., Feb 28, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Immersion Corporation (IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, today announced its fourth quarter 2007 financial results. Revenues were $9.9 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 or 15 percent higher when compared to revenues of $8.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2006.
Net income for the fourth quarter was $0.5 million compared to a net loss of $(2.0) million for the fourth quarter of 2006. Diluted earnings per share were $0.02 for the quarter compared to $(0.08) loss per share for the fourth quarter of 2006.
Revenues were $34.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2007 compared to revenues of $27.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2006, an increase of 25 percent. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $117.0 million, or $3.71 diluted earnings per share, compared to a net loss of $(10.4) million, or $(0.42) loss per share, for the year ended December 31, 2006.
As of December 31, 2007, Immersion had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $138.1 million compared to $137.2 million as of September 30, 2007.
"In 2007, Immersion achieved revenue growth of 25 percent and profitability in each of the four quarters," said Victor Viegas, Immersion CEO, president, and chairman of the board. "We have substantial organic growth opportunities in our medical, mobility, and touch interface products businesses. We have a strong balance sheet that allows us to increase investment in new product development and in sales and marketing to drive a faster pace of customer adoption of our products and technologies worldwide."
The Company has determined that a correction is needed to the previously issued financial reports for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and for the six and nine months ended June 30, 2007 and September 30, 2007, respectively. The Company has determined that in the March 31, 2007 quarter, it understated income tax expense by $6.6 million. The net correction was the result of overestimating state income tax expense, offset by an error in releasing valuation allowance to income tax expense related to stock option deductions for prior years. This correction has no effect on revenue, operating income, or cash balances. The impact of these corrections is to increase previously reported income tax expense by $6.6 million, reduce income tax liability by $0.7 million, increase deferred tax assets by $0.3 million, and increase stockholders' equity by a net $1.0 million. Please refer to the Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission today for details on the correction. The Company's consolidated financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2007 reflect the impact of the correction described in the Form 8-K.
Immersion will host a conference call with company management on Thursday, February 28, 2007 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time to discuss operating results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2007. A question and answer session will follow. To listen to the call, dial +1 800.374.2366 approximately five minutes prior to the start of the call and enter confirmation number 29315103. The call will be archived and available for replay until March 7, 2008, by dialing +1 800.642.1687 and entering confirmation number 29315103. The call will also be simulcast on the Internet through Immersion Corporation's Web site, . An audio replay of the call will be archived and available at for replay until February 28, 2009.
About Immersion ()
Founded in 1993, Immersion Corporation is a recognized leader in developing, licensing, and marketing digital touch technology and products. Using Immersion's advanced touch feedback technology (), electronic user interfaces can be made more productive, compelling, entertaining, or safer. Immersion's technology is deployed across automotive, entertainment, industrial controls, medical training, mobility, and three-dimensional simulation markets. Immersion's patent portfolio includes over 700 issued or pending patents in the U.S. and other countries.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions that, if they never materialize or prove incorrect, could cause the results of Immersion Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
All statements, other than the statements of historical fact, are statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements, including any projections of earnings, revenues, profitability targets or other financial matters; any statements of the plans, strategies, and objectives of management for future operations; any statements relating to Immersion's ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures; any statements regarding consumer or market acceptance of touch feedback products in general; future development of force feedback products; proposed products or services; any statements regarding future economic conditions or performance; and statements of belief or assumptions underlying any of the foregoing. Immersion's actual results might differ materially from those stated or implied by such forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with Immersion's business, which include but are not limited to delay in or failure to achieve commercial demand for Immersion's expanded technology offerings; a delay in or failure to achieve the acceptance of force feedback as a critical user experience in new and existing markets for our business segments; and risks and uncertainties associated with ongoing and prospective litigation.
For a more detailed discussion of these factors and other factors that could cause Immersion's actual results to vary materially, interested parties should review the risk factors listed in Immersion's most current Form 10-Q, which is on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this press release reflect Immersion's beliefs and predictions as of the date of this release. Immersion disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements as a result of financial, business, or any other developments occurring after the date of this release.
Immersion and the Immersion logo are trademarks of Immersion Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.

                        Immersion Corporation                Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets                            (In thousands)                                           December 31,  December 31,                                               2007          2006                                            (Unaudited)       (1)                                           ------------- -------------ASSETS  Cash and cash equivalents                $      86,493 $     32,012  Short-term investments                          51,619            -  Accounts receivable, net                         5,494        5,153  Inventories, net                                 3,674        2,639  Deferred income taxes                            3,351            -  Prepaid expenses and other current assets        3,036        1,179                                           ------------- -------------      Total current assets                       153,667       40,983  Property and equipment, net                      2,112        1,647  Deferred tax assets, net                         4,031            -  Intangibles and other assets, net                8,558        7,385                                           ------------- -------------TOTAL ASSETS                               $     168,368 $     50,015                                           ============= =============LIABILITIES  Accounts payable                         $       1,657 $      2,334  Accrued compensation                             1,828        1,526  Income taxes payable                               534            -  Other accrued liabilities                        2,095        1,750  Deferred revenue and customer advances           4,478        1,716                                           ------------- -------------      Total current liabilities                   10,592        7,326  Long-term debt                                       -       18,122  Long-term liabilities and deferred   revenue                                        15,989       32,559  Long-term customer advance from Microsoft            -       15,000                                           ------------- -------------      Total liabilities                           26,581       73,007STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY (DEFICIT)                   141,787      (22,992)                                           ------------- -------------TOTAL LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY (DEFICIT)                                 $     168,368 $     50,015                                           ============= =============(1) Derived from Immersion's annual audited consolidated financial statements.

                        Immersion Corporation           Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations               (In thousands, except per share amounts)                             (Unaudited)                                  Three Months           Years                               Ended December 31,  Ended December 31,                                 2007      2006      2007      2006                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Revenues:  Royalty and license          $  4,019  $ 2,356  $  11,881  $  7,304  Product sales                   4,242    5,539     18,541    17,083  Development contracts and   other                          1,629      714      4,280     3,466                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------      Total revenues              9,890    8,609     34,702    27,853                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Costs and expenses:  Cost of product sales   (exclusive of amortization   of intangibles shown   separately below)              2,275    2,056      8,808     7,193  Sales and marketing             2,935    3,455     11,493    12,609  Research and development        2,518    2,184     10,056     7,609  General and administrative      3,405    2,506     12,567    10,076  Amortization of intangibles       263      313      1,002       969  Litigation conclusions and   patent license                     -     (300)  (134,900)   (1,650)                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------      Total costs and expenses   11,396   10,214    (90,974)   36,806                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Operating income (loss)          (1,506)  (1,605)   125,676    (8,953)Interest and other income (expense), net                   1,817     (364)     4,830    (1,327)                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Income (loss) before provision for income taxes                   311   (1,969)   130,506   (10,280)Benefit (provision) for income taxes                              200      (13)   (13,488)     (144)                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Net income (loss)              $    511  $(1,982) $ 117,018  $(10,424)                               ========= ======== ========== =========Basic net income (loss) per share                         $   0.02  $ (0.08) $    4.23  $  (0.42)                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Shares used in calculating basic net income (loss) per share                           30,253   24,662     27,662    24,556                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Fully diluted net income (loss) per share              $   0.02  $ (0.08) $    3.71  $  (0.42)                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------Shares used in calculating fully diluted net income (loss) per share                32,488   24,662     31,667    24,556                               --------- -------- ---------- ---------

SOURCE: Immersion Corporation

Immersion CorporationStephen Ambler, [email protected]

Copyright Business Wire 2008

The market doesn't like the numbers,but what else is new? Good results or bad seem to get treated the same.

Bid/ask are moving back up now.

I think the numbers weren't bad but that some people were 'frightened' by this:


The Company has determined that a correction is needed to the previously issued financial reports for the three months ended March 31, 2007 and for the six and nine months ended June 30, 2007 and September 30, 2007, respectively. The Company has determined that in the March 31, 2007 quarter, it understated income tax expense by $6.6 million. The net correction was the result of overestimating state income tax expense, offset by an error in releasing valuation allowance to income tax expense related to stock option deductions for prior years. This correction has no effect on revenue, operating income, or cash balances. The impact of these corrections is to increase previously reported income tax expense by $6.6 million, reduce income tax liability by $0.7 million, increase deferred tax assets by $0.3 million, and increase stockholders' equity by a net $1.0 million. Please refer to the Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission today for details on the correction. The Company's consolidated financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2007 reflect the impact of the correction described in the Form 8-K.

My take was that it was a so-so quarter, EPS and revenue basically the same as last quarter and decent growth year to year.  Not exactly a "wow" stock, but the stock has been punished so much in the last eight months that IMMR is already close to the bottom.  I see probably a trickle down to $9 or so, with the earnings release cancelling out the recent technical breakout.

More sit and wait.

We should get some share buyback news soon.  According to the conference call, they were in a quiet period until March 4th, so they couldn't buy any shares.

Any guidance on the CC?  I have never been confortable when management does not provide guidance. 

Quote from: buddjas1 on February 28, 2008, 06:14:03 PM
Any guidance on the CC?  I have never been confortable when management does not provide guidance. 

No guidance

I just noticed that IMMR has no operating profit.  The "net" profit is a product of interest income.  4Q07 op income was (1,506) on 4,019 revenue.  4Q06 op income was (1,605) on 2,356 revenue.   (4,019-2,356=1663)/ (1,605-1,506=99)= $16.79 revenue to get $1 increase in op income. Breaking into positive op income, then, would require 1506*16.79 = $25,297,000 in revenue per quarter, without accounting for some fixed costs.  Whatever the fixed costs are, though, it is clear that IMMR is far from profitability.

Unless someone can show me where I am wrong, IMMR does not look like a stock we should be into.

Quote from: buddjas1 on February 28, 2008, 06:48:04 PM
I just noticed that IMMR has no operating profit.  The "net" profit is a product of interest income.  4Q07 op income was (1,506) on 4,019 revenue.  4Q06 op income was (1,605) on 2,356 revenue.   (4,019-2,356=1663)/ (1,605-1,506=99)= $16.79 revenue to get $1 increase in op income. Breaking into positive op income, then, would require 1506*16.79 = $25,297,000 in revenue per quarter, without accounting for some fixed costs.  Whatever the fixed costs are, though, it is clear that IMMR is far from profitability.

Unless someone can show me where I am wrong, IMMR does not look like a stock we should be into.

I haven't had any interest in this stock until now and have never had any shares or even taken a hard look at it, so my comments will probably not be welcome. I'm only trying to be helpful, but go ahead and smite me some more, I'm used to it.

You are correct buddjas. They had a 1.5M operating loss in the 4Q and that was clarified in the Q&A session of the CC. By the way, either that was the longest, most boring CC I have ever heard, I have been listening to too many of them, or I just plain don't have any real interest in this company to really listen.

There were a few points I picked up on. They absolutely will not give any guidance. After refusing to several, one caller simply asked; that given the fact that the first two months of the current Q had now passed, if they felt they were ahead of where they were at, in the same Q of 2006. They declined that simple question.

Another caller wanting just a little visiblity was entirely unsuccessful, and then when he asked about why insiders would not hold shares or buy shares, he was abruptly cut off.

Another caller eventually asked the same question, and the speaker, whoever he was, said he already had considerable tied up in options and more or less that that was enough. The caller ended up irate.

As I said, I know very little about this company, so I have a question. Was the Microsoft lawsuit against them previously disclosed? Microsoft initiated a lawsuit against them in mid 2007, alledging breach of contract and claiming they are entitled to a share of the judgement from Sony. How much was the judgement and what percentage of it is Microsoft claiming they are entitled?

My feeling is that the stock is still very speculative, and one would kind of have to rely on faith as to it's potential. I think that even if the company is eventually very successful, there will still be plenty of time and opportunities to buy it, probably lower.

If I were interested in it, it would be the kind of stock I would only have a fraction of  1 percent of  my holdings and tuck it away and don't look at it again for a while..

IMMR's 4th quarter results:

• Immersion Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter 2007 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080228/20080228006145.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu 4:35pm)

They were weak (even though 2 pennies above expectations), especially because Product Sales declined 23.4% from Q4 2006. Royalty and license revenue grew 70.6% and total revenue growth was just 15%.

I guess this revenue breakdown shows the trends within IMMR, with Royalty and license revenue now accounting for 40.6% of total revenue. I expect this part of the business to keep growing exponentially (especially when Nokia ramps up its mobile phones using the VibeTonz technology) and the Product sales to grow somewhat just due to geographical expansion.

There was an operating loss of ($1.5 M) and the positive net income of $511 K just happened because of $1.8 M in interest income on the company's $138 M cash balance. 

As BigSully1 says, the conference call didn't went well, with at least two shareholders showing discontent with the lack of guidance, the low share price and low insider ownership.

I'm not particularly worried with these issues but I guess the stock will sell off today, also due to the general market jitters. But any sell off will be contained by three factors:

1 - The company's buyback program still didn't start and management said it will start in March 4th, 2008. This is a very significant $50 M buyback program, which will probably absorb most of the selling activity. Moreover, any relevant seller would want to wait for the company's demand before showing his supply;

2 - The balance sheet is too strong, with $138 M in cash and equivalents;

3 - IMMR's big upswing in revenue and profitability will probably just start in the second half of 2008, when Nokia, which has a 40% plus market share of the global mobile phones market, starts selling its models with the Vibetonz technology. I think there will be an IMMR before and after Nokia.

QuoteAs I said, I know very little about this company, so I have a question. Was the Microsoft lawsuit against them previously disclosed? Microsoft initiated a lawsuit against them in mid 2007, alledging breach of contract and claiming they are entitled to a share of the judgement from Sony. How much was the judgement and what percentage of it is Microsoft claiming they are entitled?

Yes, sure, it's on their 10-Q files:

«Under these agreements, in the event that the Company elects to settle the action in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California entitled Immersion Corporation v. Sony Computer Entertainment of America, Inc., Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. and Microsoft Corporation, Case No. C02-00710 CW (WDB), as such action pertains to Sony Computer Entertainment, the Company would be obligated to pay Microsoft a minimum of $15.0 million for amounts up to $100.0 million received from Sony Computer Entertainment on account of the Company's granting certain rights, plus 25% of amounts over $100.0 million up to $150.0 million, and 17.5% of amounts over $150.0 million. As of December 31, 2006, the Company reflected a liability of $15.0 million in its financial statements, being the minimum amount the Company would be obliged to pay to Microsoft upon a settlement with Sony Computer Entertainment.»

I would say that if IMMR loses its case against Microsoft, it will have to pay a maximum of $15 M, plus $12.5 M plus $3 M or so, for a total of $30.5 M. IMMR's cash balance would decline to about $110 M if that were to happen, not very significant.

Management said something in the conference call that caught my ear, because I'm afraid that there's something wrong in my analysis, particularly in that "$1, or 1%, per mobile phone sold" assumption. They said that they talked a lot, in the past, about their "revenue model" for Samsung, LG and to a lesser extent about Nokia. Well, this must have been in 2005 or early 2006, because I didn't read or heard anything about this crucial issue in 2007. I'm going to have to go back and study what they said back then.

But making some fairly simple assumptions, they said 5.5 million phones in 2007 and Royalty and license revenues in 2007 were  $11.881 M. If we assume half of this revenue came from mobile phones, that means $1.08 per phone, so it is consistent with my expectations.

In my view IMMR's long term investment story comes down to this: 300 million phones*$1 = $300 M in revenue perhaps in 2010. This should mean $150 M in net income ... probably I'm too high here, say $100 M. This should put IMMR in the $1.5 B market cap, considering the average p/e multiple of the S&P 500 and not considering all other possibilities for the company. This would mean a 400% return on investment over the next three years (I'm being less optimistic than I was, but still a very encouraging projection). 

So far I still see the 300 million phones and the $1 per phone so I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

But I'll have to dig some more into the past to get some more clues about the future.

"In my view IMMR's long term investment story comes down to this: 300 million phones*$1 = $300 M in revenue perhaps in 2010. This should mean $150 M in net income ... probably I'm too high here, say $100 M."

This is where you lose me.  How can IMMR suddenly have a 33% net profit margin (100/300) a couple of years from now, when IMMR currently has a negative operating margin? 

Quote from: buddjas1 on February 29, 2008, 09:22:09 AM
"In my view IMMR's long term investment story comes down to this: 300 million phones*$1 = $300 M in revenue perhaps in 2010. This should mean $150 M in net income ... probably I'm too high here, say $100 M."

This is where you lose me.  How can IMMR suddenly have a 33% net profit margin (100/300) a couple of years from now, when IMMR currently has a negative operating margin? 

Good question with an easy answer buddjas1. It has to do with the structure of IMMR's revenue. You see, in the 4th quarter the medical equipment business represented 43% of revenue while Royalty and license represented 40.6%. Medical declined 23% while Royalties and licenses grew 70%.

Obviously making and selling medical equipment is a much lower margin business. The Royalty and license division is a very high margin business, because IMMR already developed the technology and it is at the licensees expense that the technology is embedded in each mobile phone.

So, as the royalty and license division grows into a $300 M a year revenue business, I expect the medical equipment segment to represent no more than 10% of IMMR's revenue over the long term. And with 80%-90% gross margin in the royalty and license business, yes, I do believe 33% net profit margin is quite possible.

What do you think of this? Thanks :)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 29, 2008, 09:37:11 AM
What do you think of this? Thanks :)

Sounds possible; I'll hold for now, but I think IMMR is a project stock (very long term hold until the gain).  Reminds me of PTSC; same business model.

Thanks for answering my question. 

 >:( 13% down.

Would have been nice to go into the weekend differently. Guess I'll just go out for dinner  ;)

Have a good one.
Amarens

I am glad I got out at $10.07 for a quick little profit.
yikes!

Friday was a bad day for almost all stocks, but it was horrendous for IMMR, showing a 17.7% decline, after reporting 4th quarter results.

I spent part of the weekend worried about this outcome and listening to past conference calls (the ones still archived on the company's website (http://immr.client.shareholder.com/medialist.cfm)), read all press releases since 2005 and studied the latest 10-K and 10-Q forms filed with the SEC.

Listening to the boring and controversial 4th quarter conference call again, I find the part where the CFO makes the revenue breakdown for the quarter and the year quite revealing of what's happening inside IMMR and why the weaker than expected quarter:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43888;image)

I've highlighted the Medical and Mobility business segments. You can see the medical segment is still the largest within IMMR (although progressively losing importance), with 44% of the 2007 revenue and 34% of the 4th quarter revenue. This segment and its 21% decline in revenue had a material negative impact in IMMR's 4th quarter results.

On the other hand, mobility is growing very fast (500% in 2007 vs 2006), but it still accounted for just 7% of IMMR's total revenues for the year. In Q4 2007, mobility grew 225% and accounted for 10% of IMMR's revenues for the quarter.

Also looking at the company's other business segments, namely the "console & PC gaming", the "touch interface products" and the "3D Products", they're all growing nicely.

Medical, which is still the largest segment, is doing poorly, the ones in the middle are doing well and the star performer, as expected, is the mobility business, growing very fast but still accounting for a small percentage of revenues.

I believe that as these trends continue, IMMR's profitability will change dramatically. IMMR said there were 5.5 million VibeTonz enabled mobile phones shipped in 2007. It also said it expected at least 50 million to be shipped in 2009 and hundreds of millions starting in 2010.

This growth will make mobility the largest business operation for IMMR and I suspect this segment has a much higher profit margin than others, because here IMMR just collects license fees and royalties for a technology that it already developed.

I looked everywhere and I'm certain that management never disclosed the financial details of its licensing agreements with Samsung, LG and Nokia. I also can't use the available information to make calculus and get to a conclusion, because, get this:

I found in an old SEC filing that there were 4 million mobile phones with the VibeTonz shipped in 2006. The "mobility" revenue in that year was $400 K, so one could conclude "10 cents per phone", right?

However, recently the company said there were 5.5 million VibeTonz mobile phones shipped in 2007, and the "mobility" revenue in that year was $2.4 M, so here we get 44 cents per phone.

I don't know if these differences have to do with the company's revenue recognition policies or with the "revenue model" they establish with each licensee. It appears that this "revenue model" management talks about is complex and we can't reduce it to "X cents or dollars per phone".

I'll have to keep investigating, but so far everything seems going as I expected, and this latest quarter weakness had to do with a business segment that doesn't matter much to me and the business that matters is still small but growing very fast just as expected.

When the $50 M stock buyback program is allowed to start (which is tomorrow) and Nokia starts shipping its phones with the VibeTonz I expect IMMR to move up.

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

I figure that recession or not, bear market or not, in the near future most electronic devices will need to have touch feedback technology incorporated into them. Nokia will still sell 400 million plus mobile phones a year even if the World goes into recession. Or at least 300 million.

I continue to see IMMR as a multi-billion dollar business in a couple of years time and I'm prepared to hold this one throughout the bad times.

The company's $50 M buyback program probably will put a floor under the stock price.

QuoteThe company's $50 M buyback program probably will put a floor under the stock price.

I don't know if it was due to the $7.56 support level, the oversold condition or IMMR's stock buyback plan, but IMMR rose a bit on Friday, while the general market and especially the Main Portfolio experienced an awful day.

I've been holding IMMR since July 2007 and even increased my exposure when at a significant loss. This tells you something about my commitment to this stock.

Whatever happens I'm prepared to own IMMR at least until late 2010. At this time probably everyone will see most financial effects of today's technology and licensing contracts.

IMMR broke down below the $7.56 support, closing at $7.18.

It appears that the company still didn't start to buyback its shares, or its buying power isn't enough to absorb the shares being offered.

Investors are not bidding for low p/e stocks, let alone high p/e stocks like IMMR.

Anyway, I remain a believer that IMMR will be a $100 stock in 3 to 5 years time. But the short term promises to be very, very tough.

I should have paid more attention to the technical trend and timing ... a lesson for the future.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term. 

IMMR rose 2.6% yesterday, so a bit less than the S&P 500. It would be nice if the stock could claw back above $7.56, showing that the recent breakdown was a false technical signal.

If investors should bail out and they don't, what does that tell you?

This is a quote from a short term futures trading book that I have, it doesn't apply much but the answer would be: "the short term low was made and there will be a rally".

But it's still early to consider this, because so far IMMR is below $7.56.

In terms of downside I believe the absolute minimum is the company's net cash level, which is $138 M, or $4.57 per share. If the stock were to go below that level, one could buy the company for less than the cash it owns ... and I'm sure the 700 plus patents and licensing agreements with Nokia, Samsung and LG, to name a few, are worth something (well, I think they're worth a lot, but for the argument's sake).

In my view IMMR is trading at rock bottom valuation and the downside risk is very limited, with or without a bear market. The long term upside potential, if haptics becomes mainstream as I think it will, continues to be huge.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

 IMMR Immersion announces 10b5-1c stock trading plans (7.25 -0.33) 

Co announces that the co's chairman of the board, president, and chief executive officer, Victor Viegas, and its CFO and vice president of Finance, Stephen Ambler, have entered into stock trading plans. The stock trading plan adopted by Mr. Viegas will permit him to simultaneously exercise stock options and sell up to 450,000 shares of IMMR common stock. The stock trading plan adopted by Mr. Ambler will permit him to simultaneously exercise stock options and sell up to 30,000 shares of IMMR common stock.

Anyone have thoughts on when the stock buyback will occur by the Company?  When they made this statement to the market, did they give a range of time this will occur?

Quote from: mschultz3 on March 21, 2008, 08:08:30 AM
Anyone have thoughts on when the stock buyback will occur by the Company?  When they made this statement to the market, did they give a range of time this will occur?

Over the latest conference call management said they couldn't start the buyback program before March 4, 2007 because the SEC didn't let them. This was due to conflicts of interest due to their stock options and lack of a trading plan for them, something like that.

Management has been taking the appropriate steps to solve the issue:

Immersion Announces 10b5-1c Stock Trading Plans (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080314/20080314005009.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Mar 14)

IMMR is currently valued at $208 M while it has $138 M in cash and equivalents, so we're talking about $70 M value for its business and technology.

I believe something between 150 million and 300 million mobile phones will be sold globally using the VibeTonz technology annually starting in 2010, bringing $75 M-$150 M in annual net income for the company, so it looks tremendously attractive.

What happens to the share price between now and then has more to do with fear and emotions than fundamentals. 

I'll hold IMMR for the long term.

The lesson learned here is that I should care about timing, especially when considering innovative companies, because most of the times things take a lot longer than what people initially expect.

It's interesting to note that even though IMMR has been down, interest in the stock didn't diminish. The average volume is high enough to consider this a "liquid stock".

It seems that the price has at least stabilized.

Here's the analysis Craig-Hallum Capital made of the 4th quarter results, published in February, 29, 2008:

«IMMR: Q4 Results Solid; Approaching Mass Adoption Curve

HIGHLIGHTS

Q4 Results Ahead: Revenue of $9.9M was ahead of our $9.2M estimate and EPS  of $0.05 was ahead of our $0.02 estimate.  The company has shown nice upside  to our numbers for three quarters in a row now.  The bottom line is that  Immersion continues to perform well and we continue to believe there remain a  number of potentially sizeable opportunities going forward as the mass market  is starting to adopt Immersion's haptic technology. 

Licensing Starts to Turn On: Product sales (largely Medical) came in at $4.2M versus our $5.2M estimate.  The segment should benefit going forward from additional platform modules and the roll out of international operations.  Licensing, meanwhile, came in at $4.0M compared to our $3.0M estimate and demonstrated nice growth from Q3 (up 33% sequentially).  We
would look for an acceleration in handset announcements once Nokia has platformized touch, which should be a 2H08 event. Additionally we believe significant other contract wins could help bolster 2009 and beyond as Immersion is approaching the mass acceptance and steep part of the adoption curve of its haptics technology.

Mobility Better Put Into Perspective: Approximately 10M handsets have been shipped using VibeTonz with approximately 5.5M of those being shipped in 2007.  For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more)
versus the current less than 1% industry adoption. 

Gaming Could Begin to Gain: We would note that this week Sony announced that the new DualShock 3 controller for the PS3 would be released in April. While part of the larger Sony agreement and not additive to results, the introduction should signify the opening of the PS3 to third party peripherals.  The end result should be a resurgence in the gaming business, which should be one of many drivers to numbers from here.

Changes to Estimates: We slightly raised our 2008 full year estimates and introduced quarterly numbers.  For 2008 we are now looking for revenue of $41.6M (+20% Y/Y) compared to $40.0M previously and for EPS of $0.10 compared to $0.09 previously.  For Q1 we are looking for revenue of $7.7M (+20% Y/Y) and EPS of ($0.02).

Reiterate Buy Rating and $20 Price Target.

STOCK OPPORTUNITY

We have a Buy rating and $20 price target on shares of Immersion.  We believe the company remains in front of a number of large opportunities that could result in significant top and bottom line growth over the next several years. While our price target valuation is admittedly somewhat arbitrary, we believe the opportunity and track record warrant a premium valuation.  Our price target is based on a 6x multiple on our preliminary 2009 revenue estimate of
$50M (which is in-line with a comparable IP comp group), our valuation of the patent portfolio and cash on the balance sheet of approximately $138M.»

I'm not alone when saying IMMR is deeply undervalued and has the potential to be an outstanding long term investment. I especially enjoyed the following part:

«For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more) versus the current less than 1% industry adoption.»

Don't you see most mobile phones, a couple of years from now, without a keyboard and with just the touch screen interface? I do.

Prospective buyers probably don't see the attractiveness in IMMR and we'll need some hard facts coming from the mobility unit over the next several months to make shares surge. 

The following stuff is happening, but taking longer than first anticipated:

«Mobility Better Put Into Perspective: Approximately 10M handsets have been shipped using VibeTonz with approximately 5.5M of those being shipped in 2007.  For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more) versus the current less than 1% industry adoption.»

In the future I'll look three months down the line, instead of three years. I see the more immediate future better and three years is a long time ... a lot may happen in between to change investors perceptions.

But since I came this far, I'll just continue being patient with IMMR.

IMMR closed right at the $6.61 support level. The cash pile is $138 M, the market cap is $205 M.

The technology, 700 plus patents, medical & gaming businesses, the licensing agreements with Nokia, Samsung and LG, they're all valued at just $67 M.

Can IMMR get even cheaper? I hope not, but I'll keep holding whatever happens.

Just noticing that IMMR continues to hold $6.61 on close.

There was a press release out yesterday:

Immersion Medical Adds Knot Tying and Suturing to LaparoscopyVR(TM) Surgical Simulator (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080407/20080407005310.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

It would be nice if the medical equipment segment recovers, since it was due to its weakness that the stock fell further from $10 to below $7.

Good news ahead for this one? The market seems to think so.

Is the volume today coming from the Company Stock buyback?

nice chart and nice volume. tomorrow will be interesting imo

IMMR: Jumps +12.24%; Vol +85%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , April 08, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: IMMR      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $7.35         $8.25       +12.24%
VOLUME           821,305     1,518,359       +84.87%
#TRADES            3,872         6,806       +75.77%
DAY-HI             $7.45         $8.29       LATE-HI
DAY-LO             $6.57         $6.57           N/A

Chart:

Quote from: soxguy on April 08, 2008, 04:00:17 PM
Good news ahead for this one? The market seems to think so.

Or else the stock was very undervalued. I checked my service and there weren't any new recommendations or research out.

Quote from: mschultz3 on April 08, 2008, 04:13:14 PM
Is the volume today coming from the Company Stock buyback?

It's possible. It's a $50 M buyback program, at current prices that is enough to buy back 1/5 of outstanding shares.

IMMR had a very strong day yesterday, up 23% on volume above average. But the technical trend is still bearish.

We'll see if there's some follow through to yesterday's rally.

Anyway, whatever happens, I'll remain a long term investor in IMMR, I believe the company will be worth several times more in the future.

I thought I read somewhere that under the buyback program, they were only allowed to by around 150k shares/day.  Is that not true?

nice consolidation day  8)

fyi:

IMMR: Short Interest DN 12.8% to 3.3M at the End of Mar 2008
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) DECREASED 12.8% to 3,304,645 shares as reported at month-end March, 2008. Based on IMMR's 20-day average daily share volume of 593,300, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Updated IR presentation with nice updates 1st of April:
http://www.immersion.com/corporate/ImmrCorp_Investor_Web_4-1-08.pdf

Chart:

David

I read that GS and MAZAMA dumped a lot of shares  >:(

Vova

Hi notbeln,
hope this helps....

LG success:

http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2008/04/14/lg-voyager-coming-to-sprint-atandt-this-year/

Good one from Investor village
::)

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=238&mn=38668&pt=msg&mid=4554462

<   Recs: 1 Long Read But Worth It
This Year's Biggest Tech Trend Belongs
to a Micro-Cap
By Greg Guenthner
April 14, 2008


Finding ideas with the potential to turn into powerful trends can lead to impressive profits. But this strategy has its inherent risks. After all, a trend could turn out to be just that — a blip on the radar screen.

Trends can get an investor into trouble. Oftentimes, an investor will put too much stake in how he believes a particular trend will shape up, yet neglect his most important decision: The company whose shares he chooses to buy! Oil can be on the rise...but if you're invested in a failing oil company, you won't reap the rewards of your prediction, accurate or not...

Then there are bogus trends. Take Crocs Inc., for instance. The company makes squishy sandals that were all the rage last summer. The stock rose on high hopes that these sandals would grab a permanent place in the fashion world. Expectations became overblown and then crashed — along with the stock — when reality set in...

Shares of Crocs Inc. — maker of the popular soft, lightweight sandals — have fallen more than 70% since November 2007. By the time the footwear hit its popularity peak, the stock was already underperforming...

The point is this:You need more than a trend to make a profit. You need a strong business to back up your big-picture predictions. Great investors look for industry leaders . And even in our dealings with micro-caps, we're searching for the best in their respective businesses.

That's why we've had our eye on an industry leader in one of the next big technological breakthroughs in the mobile phone market...

This one small company owns and licenses key patents that it has vigorously — and, so far, quite successfully — defended in court. We'll get to more on this groundbreaking corporation in just a minute. First, let's take a look at what could very well be the biggest trend in mobile communications for the next several years...

The iPhone's Achilles' Heel

Back in July, we wrote an online column titled "Why Apple's iPhone Can't Change Anything." As you can probably guess, we weren't too impressed with the glossy little gadgets we saw paraded around town.

One of the reasons was that AT&T — the iPhone's exclusive carrier — announced disappointing activation data right after release. Customers activated only 146,000 iPhones during the first weekend of its release. Most of the very serious Wall Street-type analysts were expecting this number to come in around 500,000.

Apple stock initially took a beating, but quickly rebounded. But we still aren't buying it — at least not yet. Sure, the screen looks great and the Web browser sets up pages much nicer than other smart phones. However, there are some features that need to be added or corrected. Apple is working on some of them. Soon, third parties will be allowed to develop software for the phones — allowing almost limitless possibilities for new useful applications. That's a step in the right direction.

But there's something else missing. These first generation iPhones lack a crucial piece of technology that could very well take the ultimate mobile fashion accessory to the next level...

************One Day Left ************

How the Microwave Oven (and a Tire Fire) Led to One of the Biggest Energy Breakthroughs in Decades

You might already be familiar with how microwave technology was discovered in the first place. But let me refresh your memory.

One day, shortly after World War II, a scientist at Raytheon working on radar technology noticed a candy bar starting to melt in his pocket. He quickly realized the radar was giving off microwaves at a frequency that heated up the chocolate. That was the jumping-off point for the development of the microwave oven that's a fixture of every modern kitchen.

And it's also what makes the "Oil Vacuum" work. Check it out now. You only have until tomorrow at midnight to do so. Read this now...

**********************************

Feedback You Can Feel

Touch screen technology is used in a variety of applications nowadays. Servers at restaurants punch orders into a touch screen monitor. Cash registers at many stores are now operated with touch screen technology. Even some factories employ touch screen controls for complex machinery.

But miniaturizing touch screens for mobile phones creates a few new obstacles. For example, how do you create an easy-to-use touch screen keyboard for a small hand-held device?

The answer lies in a science you've probably experienced, but have never heard of: Haptics.

Haptic technology is essentially "feel feedback." It gives you more control and precision by emitting vibrations or motions that give technology such as touch screens the feel of a keyboard.

Haptics has the unique ability to make sleek, stylish gadgets just as easy to use as your old flip phone. When you press the buttons on a traditional phone or keyboard, you receive a tactile response. You are able to run your fingers over the keys to get your bearings, making it easier to type and recognize errors.

This simply isn't possible on a touch screen without haptic feedback. You can't type with your eyes closed, and you can't feel it when you're in between buttons or pressing the wrong key altogether.

We found the leader in the field of touch feedback technology. Phone manufacturers have used its licensed haptic solutions in more than 10 million mobile phones, with more new models introduced almost every month.

Heavy hitters like LG, Nokia and Samsung all license this technology for their products. You might even recognize some of the phones that incorporate it — like the LG Voyager, offered by Verizon in the U.S., as well as the pricey Prada phone (also by LG).

Unfortunately, this company is far too small for a newsletter this size. So, I had to hold off on it. I will however, release it to my Penny Stock Fortunes readers. In fact, I just put the finishing touches on it, and PSF readers should receive it in their inboxes within 24 hours from now. If you would like to get into this exclusive group, check this out. But hurry; you don't want to miss this amazing penny stock play...

Best,
Greg Guenthner

>

I am buying some IMMR tommorrow,  like the pattern that has developed over the last few days.

Quote from: tokyopua on April 15, 2008, 03:25:07 AM
I am buying some IMMR tommorrow,  like the pattern that has developed over the last few days.

Indeed, nice correction to the big white marubozu's midpoint. I guess at least another run towards the 50 days SMA is in the short term cards. Good luck :)

AUTH (thread in the Watch List, la-onda is a fan) is a similar play to IMMR, also very interesting.

But I took such a beating in IMMR that I just don't have the courage to buy AUTH at the present moment.

I'll just keep holding IMMR for the long term.

Fyi:

Immersion Schedules Release Date and Earnings Conference Call for First Quarter 2008 Financial Results


Business Editors/Technology Editors
     
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 15, 2008--Immersion Corporation
(Nasdaq:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology,
will announce its first quarter 2008 results on Thursday, May 1, 2008.     
A press release will be transmitted to the news media immediately following the
close of regular trading on May 1st. The company will also hold a conference
call to present the results from 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. Pacific time.
     
Those wishing to participate should call +1 800.374.2366 approximately five
minutes prior to the start of the call and reference confirmation number
29315507. A replay of the call will be available until 8:59 p.m. Pacific time
on May 8, 2008 by dialing +1 800.642.1687 and entering confirmation number
29315507.     
A webcast of the conference call will be available at www.immersion.com. Please
visit Immersion`s Web site at least 15 minutes prior to register, download, and
install any necessary audio software. A replay of the webcast will also be made
available for one year following the call within the investor relations section
of Immersion`s corporate Web site.

Immersion Medical Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Mentice AB, Mentice SA, Simbionix USA Corp., and Simbionix Ltd.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008 18:59ET

SAN JOSE, Calif., Apr 16, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, announced today that its wholly owned subsidiary, Immersion Medical, Inc, filed a lawsuit for patent infringement in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Texas against Mentice AB, Mentice SA, Simbionix USA Corp., and Simbionix Ltd. The complaint alleges that each of the defendants infringe claims of U.S. Patent Nos. 6,106,301; 5,821,920; 6,323,837; and 5,844,392, which are owned by Immersion Medical, Inc. The complaint seeks damages and injunctive relief.

chart:

BO @ 8.4 -8.45 ?

Immersion Corporation (IMMR) Corporate Event Announcement Notice
Wednesday, April 16, 2008 21:05ET

Apr 16, 2008 (Wall Street Horizon via COMTEX) --

Immersion Corporation (IMMR)

Expected next earnings release:
Announcement date: 5/1/2008 - After Market
Earnings Quarter: Q1
Announcement Status: Verified

Expected next investor conference call information:
Conference Call Date: 5/1/2008
Conference Call Time: 5:00 PM
Conference Call URL: http://www.immersion.com

QuoteBO @ 8.4 -8.45 ?

Yeah, I guess so la-onda, after a minor correction to the midpoint of that powerful white marubozu, IMMR seems to be coming back for a bullish breakout. Well, at least it already closed above the 50 days SMA, which didn't happen for 5 1/2 months:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44950;image)

Let me see if there was any analysts activity ... yes, a 15 pages report from CapStone Investments:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44951;image)

The firm's estimates:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44952;image)

Significant Developments

Mobile: New market offering significant high margin growth
Haptic based technology has just begun to emerge within mobile handsets. IMMR's haptic based technology more than likely equaled less than 1% in CY07, but by CY11 could reach as high as 15% of all handset/smartphones. Per our estimates, this would equal about 5.5m units in CY07 growing to about 275m units in CY11. IMMR captures revenue from both handset OEMs and wireless carriers/content developers. In our opinion, IMMR could capture around 0.25% of the estimated $8B wireless gaming market in CY10 (market forecasts provided by Jupiter/Gartner). To date, the Company has relationships with handset OEMs such as Samsung, LG, and NOK. Within mobile downloads customers include I-play, QCOM, Symbian, SK Telecom, GeoTel, Indiagames, and many others.

Touchscreen: Opportunities within gaming and automotive
The Touchscreen business covers several end markets from gaming (slot-machines), automotive (BMW i-Drive, Mercedes-Benz) and potential new opportunities such as point of sale, kiosks and medical/industrial. Currently, the majority of this business is derived from automotive markets. Within automotive, the Company has relationships with BMW, Volkswagen, Alps Electric, SMK, Mercedes-Benz, and Methode. A substantial portion of automotive to date is derived from the BMW i-Drive system. This system provides the user with a rotary dial interface allowing control of in-vehicle systems. IMMR has highlighted seven various opportunities within automotive for its technology; 1) thumb pad 2) thumb wheel 3) rotary controller 4) display controls 5) haptic stick 6) rotary dial (i-Drive) 7) touch screen. It is our belief that recent models of Mercedes-Benz have also begun to incorporate IMMR technology. Recently, Volkswagen stated publicly that in future years all Volkswagen vehicles will ship with touchscreens as a standard offering. We see strong growth opportunities within automotive. IMMR management commented on the recent quarterly earnings call that investments in key industry personnel have significantly benefited the automotive business and new design wins. IMMR typically receives around $3-5 per implementation of its technology. We believe in future years this contribution could decline, but would be offset due to increased content within the vehicle.

Opportunities within gaming, such as slot-machines, are emerging entering CY08. IMMR has forged a relationship with 3M. It is estimated that 3M currently ships 200k touchscreen gaming units each year within North America. 3M maintains a significant share of this market with around 85% market share. This opportunity could become significant during CY08 as 3M will be demonstrating its first IMMR based offering at an upcoming gaming tradeshow. IMMR provides actuators to 3M receiving an ASP which could exceed $40 per unit depending on the number of actuators provided. We believe that by CY10 the 3M relationship could equal revenues of $5m from nil at present. Similar to other business divisions, this market offers strong gross margins, ranging from 60-70%. We believe the 3M business could expand into additional opportunities within gaming, however we have kept our estimates conservative until further market expansion is more visible.

Pure-play investment opportunity within touch secular growth market
We believe IMMR offers investors a pure-play opportunity on Haptic technology expansion. IMMR maintains a strong IP portfolio, which has been tested against innovative companies such as MSFT and SNE. It is our belief that the mobile end market sees rapid adoption during CY09 and beyond. Today IMMR has license agreements with LG, Samsung and Nokia. Large end market opportunities such as medical, touchscreen, and gaming provide additional growth drivers. IMMR presents investors exposure to hyper-growth within Haptics technology. While we believe growth will accelerate through CY08, we see opportunity at current price levels.

Catalysts

• IMMR maintains a significant IP portfolio with over 700 patents issued or pending. Companies such as MSFT and SNE have litigated and lost, thus settling with the Company in relation to its IP. A recent study done by 1790 Analytics for IEEE ranked IMMR patent portfolio in the top five percent of 1300 various companies. In the same study, IMMR was ranked #1 for patent pipeline among 181 other various companies. The Company has formed an IP strategy team to help with development, and future strategies, related to its IP portfolio.

• IMMR announced that it had expanded personnel in Europe and Asia within its medical business. The medical simulation markets within both Europe and Asia are equivalent to the U.S. We view expansion into additional large-end markets as positive for IMMR. Expansion in new markets typically takes a period of introduction, ramp and then growth. We believe that IMMR is only in the introduction phase but see strong growth prospects in future years.

• IMMR is currently trading at levels prior to the announced settlement with Sony, relating to joystick feedback technology, and new agreements with LG/Samsung within mobile. We believe IMMR is still early in its growth. However, we believe that significant value has been created since prior to these announcements.

• Sony PS3 joysticks incorporating IMMR haptic technology have begun shipping in Asia. We believe that bundled PS3 will incorporate haptic technology in 2H08. While incrementally not beneficial to IMMR, we believe Sony's willingness to adopt IMMR technology into PS3 could signal a willingness to license additional 3rd party vendors.

• IMMR has selected its broker and instituted as 10-5b1c plan with relation to its $50m share buyback. At current price levels, this buyback could add around an estimated $0.20-0.25 to our current CY08 pro-forma estimates. We believe the company has purchased, or will remain active, in share buybacks. Per management cash balances may be used for potential future
acquisitions in addition to share buybacks.

• Q108 estimates are favorably impacted by revenue mix compared to prior year. Contribution from mobile, gaming and automotive are ramping during the quarter. In addition, Medical is expanding into new markets and offering new technology, which should compare favorably to the sequential decline in revenues in Q107.

• Recent discussions with industry participants have provided real endorsement of the company's technology. Industry management we spoke with see it as a critical value add in expanding touch functionality.

Business Strategy

IMMR – Immersion Corporation
IMMR is a publicly traded company with shares listed on NASDAQ. The Company generated revenues of $35m in CY07 and has 152 employees as of December 31, 2007, and boasts a large IP portfolio with over 700 patents issued or pending. The Company first went public 10 years ago. At that time, Immersion's primary offering was based on haptic technology found in video game controllers. Since this time, the Company has expanded its end markets now serving mobile, medical, automotive, touchscreen, 3D controls, video games, and royalty agreements.

What is Haptics?
"Haptics" is a Greek word meaning "the science of touch." Haptics is the science of physiology of the sense of touch and provides sensations similar to texture, vibration, and bumps. Haptics help give direction and guides our movements. Haptic vibration type feedback or simulation can offer life-like interaction triggering senses to react naturally. As more devices become intuitive and offer touch based technology, Haptics provides interaction with recognizable responses and a touch-and-feel similar to non-digital interaction. IMMR is the only company currently offering Haptic based technology.

Mobile
The handset opportunity is a royalty based relationship. The Company has previously received around $0.07-$0.09 per handset. After its announced relationship with NOK, management has guided this ASP closer to $0.05 per phone. In our opinion, CY07 has been the first full year with handsets offering Haptic based technology. To date Samsung and LG have about 20 phones shipping with IMMR technology. Management believes these two vendors have 30-40 additional phones entering the market within 12-18 months. Investors should expect the first NOK based phone in 2H08. We believe NOK will begin to ramp adoption through CY09 as its license with IMMR offers volume discounts. Management has publicly stated that the license would be very expensive if NOK were to adopt limited Haptic based handsets. The NOK contract specifies a minimum payment per annum. Typically, any announced relationship with a handset OEM offers upfront NRE revenues then transfers to a royalty based license upon shipments. Typical Haptic based features within handsets can be "push back" or vibration. Based on our analysis, each incremental 1% penetration of our CY08/CY09 total handset/smartphone estimates would add an incremental $0.01 to our earnings estimates. We believe that the gross margin profile of the mobile market is equivalent to 90%. However our assumptions assume that the handset based royalty equals gross margins above this blended average.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44953;image)

Mobile download offers an additional revenue opportunity within the large handset end market. IMMR typically captures around $0.05-0.10 per download. This royalty can be derived from ringtones, mobile games, and make alerts more discernable. During CY06 we believe this market equaled around $3B. It is our expectations that this end market could grow to $20B by CY11. We estimate that exiting CY07 IMMR captured only 0.02% of this market. As mobile game adoption becomes prevalent throughout the world we believe that IMMR will be able to grow its share to around 0.25% by CY11. This market offers significant upside potential based on incremental gain of share.

Medical
IMMR's medical business currently represents the majority of the Company's revenues (CY07: 44%). This division focuses on selling large simulators to healthcare centers, hospitals, education institutions, and medical device companies. The value proposition offers institutions the ability to have surgeons train with "hands-on" life-like training prior to their first operation. In addition, skilled surgeons are able to practice common surgeries improving technique. It is common place for first-time surgeons to have had no real-world experience before embarking on their first operation. IMMR based medical products offer benefit to medical device companies as they are able to demonstrate their products to potential clients showing improved surgical procedure. Current estimates forecast 15k medical training institutions worldwide. Only a few of these institutions have been adopted IMMR's medical simulation products. Customers include Medtronic, John Hopkins University, Mayo Clinic – Rochester, Duke University Medical Center,
Yale University and others.
IMMR is working with customers and other medical device companies to drive new legislation regarding training hours needed prior to first-time surgeons performing an actual procedure, or continuing education for veteran surgeons. Such legislation could accelerate the adoption of virtual-reality based medical simulators. IMMR offers two types of simulators. Its intravenous based products typically cover procedures such as vascular access and phlebotomy. These products sell for around $15-20k and require software modules which offer annuity based opportunities. The non-intravenous products sell for around $100-120k and also present an annuity based opportunity due to the need for software modules and future software updates. We believe the medical division will continue to offer strong top-line growth, but acceleration in unit sales will be needed to see strong bottom-line contribution.

Touchscreen
Other opportunities within kiosks, point of sale, and medical/industrial will be predicated on a transition from a resistive based technology to a capacitive approach with feedback offering onscreen buttons feeling less mechanical and recognizable confirmations. Market estimates state 3 million new touchscreens are sold worldwide. We believe any incremental penetration within this market would not currently be reflected in our estimates. While we believe that some related applications would benefit from the use of haptic based technology, we would like to see more developments within these end market opportunities.

SNE-MSFT: Royalties from licensing
Many investors will recognize IMMR based technology as the "shaking" within your Playstation 2 joystick during play of various video games. Due to this unique technology SNE and IMMR became embroiled in a long-standing patent lawsuit which eventually was settled by SNE. SNE paid IMMR the following;
1) $97.2m – jury award 2) $32.3m previously paid for compulsory license fees 3) $22.5m for new rights with respect to all Playstation versions. In addition, IMMR crafted an agreement to allow MSFT to use its haptic based technology with additional incentives of $15m if IMMR were to settle with SNE. After the announced settlement with SNE, IMMR recognized this additional $15m. Currently IMMR recognizes $750k per quarter relating to SNE based royalties. SNE has also been provided an option to license future SNE products within gaming. We view these two settlements as critical in determining the strength of IMMR's IP portfolio. Both MSFT and SNE are large innovative companies with significant patent portfolios and access to high-powered patent attorneys. IMMR licensing both companies shows potentially significant barriers to entry within the haptic based market. IMMR has stated publicly that the Company feels in order to offer true haptics based technology any other company would need a license to its patents. We view IMMR's patent portfolio as a significant competitive advantage and presents additional
high-margin licensing within several end markets.

Video Games
IMMR offers game console manufacturers and 3rd party peripheral companies access to haptic feedback technology used primarily in joysticks. This business has been offering haptic based technology to the market for over 10 years. Both MSFT and SNE have licensed IMMR technology for use within their console offerings. This market also serves the PC gaming market place. IMMR typically licenses its technology to OS Support (APPL, MSFT), PC Peripherals, Console platform (MSFT, SNE) and Console peripherals (MadCatz, LOGI). These licensees then work with software developers to integrate haptic feedback within game play. IMMR typically receives 5-10% of peripheral hardware selling price. We believe additional upside opportunity exists. IMMR has not yet negotiated a license with Nintendo for its very popular Wii platform. In addition we believe the penetration of haptics within games could increase allowing for additional license revenue. We view the video game market as a mature opportunity with potential upside from new relationships and licensing expansion.

3D Products
This business offers glove and measuring type devices incorporating haptic based technology. Management classifies this business as a "cash cow" but understands growth prospects are limited. Currently this business contributes about $1m per quarter in revenues. We believe this number will decline over time as focus is shifted to other high-growth markets such as mobile and touchscreen.

Competition
IMMR currently has no direct competitors. Its Haptic technology is protected by court-tested patents. End users of Haptic based technology could implement less functional, or non-compliant Haptic functionality, as a way to offset costs to IMMR. An example of this implementation would be MOT's new ROKR E8. This implementation did not utilize IMMR technology, but also was not a fully functional haptic offering. We see competitive risks as potential customers not utilizing fully functional haptic technology.

Valuation

We value shares of IMMR based on our CY09 pro-forma EPS estimates. In our opinion IMMR is at the base of a significant ramp in revenues due to expansion into new markets and gaining momentum in other businesses. We believe that the significant growth profile, offered by IMMR deserves a higher forward multiple than industry peers. IMMR could potentially grow pro-forma EPS over 100% year-over-year during CY08/CY09. We believe a 20x multiple appropriately recognizes the significant growth opportunity, while still providing some discount to potential risks related to revenue acceleration and/or push-out of opportunities. Applying a 20x multiple to our CY09 pro-forma EPS estimates of $.49, we arrive at a target price of $10. Our target is around 35% above IMMR's prior closing price.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44954;image)

Important Disclosures

Concluding Opinion
We are initiating coverage on Immersion Corporation with a Strong Buy rating and $10.00 price target. Our price target is based primarily on accelerated adoption of Haptic based technology within several new markets. We use 20x our CY09 pro-forma EPS estimates to derive our target price.

Risks
• Adoption of Haptic based technology is slower than our estimates. We believe that Haptic based technology will see an acceleration in adoption during CY08. Our estimates assume a gradual growth during CY08, with strong acceleration in CY09. If our estimates are "pushed-out" or prove too aggressive our forecasted target price could be mis-valued.

• New competition offers similar offering while not incorporating patents. We believe a key investment thesis in shares of IMMR relates to the Company's strong, tested, IP portfolio. If new competition were to enter the market offering similar quality products without infringing on IMMR technology our investment thesis could prove incorrect. In addition, APPL has recently
filed a patent application with Haptic-like functionality. If IMMR were unable to defend its IP against new competition our investment thesis regarding IP would be incorrect.

• Relationships with NOK and other handset OEMs see limited adoption. If relationships within mobile handsets with NOK, LG and Samsung were to see limited or slower adoption than our estimate future revenue assumptions could potentially be misstated.

• Additional patent litigation. If IMMR were to forced into additional litigation it could substantially increase the Company's operating expenses and reduce future profits. Currently only a contract negotiation dispute is pending with MSFT, however if other large innovative companies challenge IMMR it could cause us to review our valuation. In addition, APPL has recently filed a patent application with Haptic-like functionality. If IMMR were unable to defend its IP our investment thesis regarding IP would be incorrect.

• Microsoft - Breach of contract claims. MSFT and IMMR settled claims related to MSFT's use of IMMR's haptic technology in '03. Within the settlement, MSFT required IMMR to pay $15m if it were to achieve a victory in its litigation versus Sony. After the conclusion of the Sony litigation IMMR recognized the $15m, as it believed its contract only mandated the return of the $15m if IMMR was victorious "in court" and Sony and IMMR settled patent claims via settlement. This case is pending in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington. If IMMR were to lose its claims, the company more than likely would be required to pay $15m to MSFT and potentially legal fess/damages.

Personal comment: I feel like I had a big punch in the stomach after reading this analysis. So, instead of 1% of the mobile phone Average Selling Price (ASP), IMMR is getting just 0.05%-0.10%. I busted myself out looking for this information and never found it, because it was never disclosed in any news, SEC filings or conference calls. Several investors also questioned management on this issue in the latest conference call ("we don't know, how much are we being paid for our technology?" an investor (Benjamin), asked - he was cut off from the call seconds later).

But, it appears management disclosed the information to analysts.

I was just getting to this conclusion, but now it looks obvious: fundamental analysis is just too complex to be made without the help of professional analysts, which cover just a limited and small number of companies. I didn't have the appropriate and necessary tools before.

For now I'll just say that I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

I took another, yet expensive, step on this never ending learning road.

<The Company has previously received around $0.07-$0.09 per handset. After its announced relationship with NOK, management has guided this ASP closer to $0.05 per phone.>

???

David

Do you think that IMMR still attractive?
We talked about $1 per phone, didn't we?

Vova

This can be a real developement... people are getting "more older" (actually they live more)  and these are the kind of diseases that appears with age and need that specific observation. Even in young people, the more and more it happens with sports... and you need these kind of skills in different type of specialities (Rheumatologists, Orthophedists, Family Phisicians, Neurosurgeons, Sports Medicine, Gerontology...)By the way I feel now that there are fewer posts in the threads and no more the answers and replys as it was some time ago... as you teach me some years ago in other location/treads, David,  can this be a contrarian sign.... Hope so

Immersion Medical and GMV Sign Agreement for New Virtual Reality Arthroscopy Simulation SystemBusiness Editors/High-Tech WritersSAN JOSE, Calif. & MADRID, Spain--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 21, 2008--ImmersionCorporation (NASDAQ:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedbacktechnology (http://www.immersion.com), and GMV, a multinational engineeringfirm operating in various high technology markets and recognized as aninnovative and competitive solutions provider, today announce that ImmersionMedical, a wholly owned subsidiary of Immersion, and GMV have signed anagreement whereby Immersion Medical will market and sell GMVs insightArthroVR®virtual reality arthroscopy surgical simulator in most countries around theworld. Immersion Medical begins accepting orders today and will exhibit the newVR arthroscopy system at the 2008 annual meeting of the Arthroscopy Associationof North America in Washington, D.C., April 24-27.GMV and Immersion Medical are focused on providing high-fidelity virtualreality simulators that can help physicians acquire the skills needed forminimally invasive surgery, said Jorge Potti, director of Advanced HealthcareTechnologies, GMV. Because arthroscopy is such a fast-growing field, it isvital that the insightArthroVR simulator be made available to arthroscopicpractitioners worldwide, and Immersion Medical is the organization that can dothat.It is widely held that the total number of arthroscopic procedures has rapidlyincreased over the last decade(1), with knee arthroscopy now one of the mostcommonly performed surgical procedures(2). However, a survey in 2002 found thatthe most frequent source of arthroscopy training for rheumatologists wasinformal training under the supervision of a trained colleague(1). The newinsightArthroVR surgical simulator has been endorsed by the Spanish ArthroscopyAssociation Education Board as a tool of interest for the education ofarthroscopic techniques. Further, it has been validated as having a high degreeof realism to help surgeons master the techniques needed for arthroscopy, suchas triangulation, visualization, and tool handling.(3)The new insightArthroVR arthroscopy virtual reality simulator incorporates acomputer, touchscreen, proxy arthroscopic camera, tools, interchangeableinterface model (shoulder or knee), and training software. Training modulesinclude Basic Training, which helps users acquire the skills needed for cameraand tool handling, Shoulder Arthroscopy, and Knee Arthroscopy. The systemsimulates the look and feel of minimally invasive shoulder and knee surgeries,such as subacromial decompression, where the inflamed bursa is removed to allowinspection of the rotator cuff, and ACL reconstruction.Several cases encompassing a wide variety of anatomies and pathologies areprovided to help users smoothly advance in their proficiency. Automated skillindicators provide an objective evaluation of user progress.The advantages of minimally invasive arthroscopy include decreased soft tissuedisruption, less pain, and less chance for infection, but the procedurerequires highly proficient psychomotor skills, explains Richard Vogel, seniorvice president and general manager, Immersion Medical. The medical professionneeds an effective, convenient, high-fidelity VR simulator to help ensure thisproficiency, and were very pleased that Immersion Medical can now offer thisexciting new product, thereby broadening our product line even further. Inaddition to arthroscopy, we offer VR simulation in endovascular, endoscopy,laparoscopy, IV insertion, and epidural procedures.(1) Kane, D., D.J. Veale, O. FitzGerald, and R. Reece. 2002. Survey ofarthroscopy performed by rheumatologists. Rheumatology 41: 210-215.(2) Knee Arthroscopy Gets Patients Back On Their Feet Fast. 2008. Medical NewsToday. January 15.(3) Bayonet, S., M. Garcia, C. Mendoza, and J.M. Fernindez. 2006. ShoulderArthroscopy Training System with Force Feedback. Medical InformationVisualisation  BioMedical Visualisation, 2006. MediVis 2006: 71-76.About GMV (www.gmv.com)GMV is a privately owned Spanish technology group founded in 1984 and tradingon a worldwide scale in the following sectors: Aerospace, Defense and Security,Transport, Telecommunications, Healthcare and IT for public administration andlarge corporations. In 2006 it achieved revenue of 77 million euros workingwith a 913-strong staff. The companys growth strategy is based on continualinnovation; 10% of its turnover is plowed back into R&D. GMV hence ranks fifthamong all Spanish firms in terms of returns on the European Communitys SixthFramework Program for Research and Technological Development and holds severalinternational patents. GMV is the leader in arthroscopy simulation for training(www.gmv.com/insight), and is currently one of the worlds two foremostsuppliers of satellite control centers; as a firm it boasts Europes thirdbiggest participation by volume in Galileo; it is the main supplier of C3Icommand and control systems to the Spanish army and the nations top supplierof telematic systems for public transport.About Immersion Medical, Inc. (www.immersionmedical.com)Immersion Medical, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets computer-basedsurgical simulation training systems(http://www.immersion.com/medical/surgical_sim.php) worldwide. The medical andsurgical simulators integrate proprietary computer software and tactilefeedback robotics to create highly realistic medical simulations that helptrain clinicians. The company's key product lines are the Virtual IV system,Endoscopy AccuTouch® simulator, CathLabVR" surgical simulator, andLaparoscopyVR" surgical simulation system.

Quote from: notbeln on April 21, 2008, 12:22:44 PM
<The Company has previously received around $0.07-$0.09 per handset. After its announced relationship with NOK, management has guided this ASP closer to $0.05 per phone.>

???

David

Do you think that IMMR still attractive?
We talked about $1 per phone, didn't we?

Vova

I thought that because IMMR received 1.67% of revenue in the Sony lawsuit settlement that they were selling licenses in the mobile business for a similar percentage, that's why I was considering $1 per each phone.

But no, they sold the licenses for a lot less. Even though they never disclosed the details as public information, it looks clear now they spoke to professional analysts following the company.

This explains what was previously inexplainable, the stock's fall from $20 or so (right after Nokia's licensing deal) to below $7. What looked great at the time wasn't all that great for people in the know of the relevant information.

If one goes through the press releases, SEC filings, conference calls or even message boards of that time, nobody knew what was going on. Only the people paying $1,300/month for access to professional analysis (like institutional investors) knew the very important details of the business.

This also explains why management didn't talk all that much about the mobility business ... not more than the other business segments of the company.

The chart told the story for anyone willing to listen. But I thought the selling pressure came from people concerned with the high valuation.

What this story teaches me is that in this very competitive World one needs all the available tools to beat the market.  If that isn't possible, at least adapt the strategy to the tools you have, meaning, if you're not able to pay for the help of thousands of professional analysts doing fundamental analysis, it's better for you to just stick to the charts.

Unfortunately I didn't know better and the Main is losing 40% (after doubling its exposure) on this stock.

I still like the stock, but the investment story is much weaker than I previously thought.

So, given this, what shall I do now?

Well, since recognizing a mistake and not doing anything about it is the same as not recognizing it at all, I'll sell half of IMMR's stake at today's opening price.

QuoteWhat this story teaches me is that in this very competitive World one needs all the available tools to beat the market.  If that isn't possible, at least adapt the strategy to the tools you have, meaning, if you're not able to pay for the help of thousands of professional analysts doing fundamental analysis, it's better for you to just stick to the charts.

There, David, you said it! Now, having said this, wouldn't it change your perspective on a stock like UTVG? Not really knowing what's going on in the far Orient, would you believe the chart and take an action or still hope your story would come true? I am not trying to nag at you here, only rationalizing a decision. A 4 fold drop had to be caused by something. And if we don't know what, we'd have to protect our capital.

Some more news... and maybe some kind of hope!?! :-\

Immersion Appoints Clent Richardson President and CEO

Business Editors/High-Tech Writers

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 24, 2008--Immersion Corporation
(NASDAQ:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology
(http://www.immersion.com/corporate/), announced today the appointment of Clent
Richardson to president and CEO, effective April 28, 2008. The Company also
expects that Richardson will be appointed to the Company's Board of Directors
at its next board meeting.

"Clent brings strong industry knowledge, proven global business development,
sales, and marketing accomplishments, as well as team-building and executive
management skills," said Victor Viegas, Immersion chairman of the board and
current president and CEO. "He also brings proven experience in establishing
business relationships with leading OEMs, developers, and service providers to
create industry-wide support for products and technologies that will help
Immersion accelerate the capture of its significant upside potential. I look
forward to working with Clent in the transition to his new leadership role and
to supporting Immersion`s growth as chairman of the board."

Most recently, Richardson, 46, was chief marketing officer of TiVo, and
earlier, of Nortel Networks. Prior to these positions, he was chief sales and
marketing officer and a member of the board of directors of T-Mobile U.K.,
where, leading a 1,300-person team, he architected the companys rebranding and
go-to-market strategy resulting in increased operational efficiency and
double-digit revenue growth. In addition, he was concurrently chairman of
T-Mobile Retail, Ltd. where he provided guidance for 130 retail locations and
over 400 team members across the U.K. Previously, at Apple, he reported to the
co-founder and CEO as vice president of worldwide developer relations and
worldwide solutions marketing and built and led a global team that established
and strengthened developer and customer relationships around the world. During
his more than five years with Apple, Richardson was also senior manager of
evangelism, responsible for building and leading a worldwide team that managed
global strategic relationships with Adobe, AOL, IBM, Microsoft, Motorola, Sun,
and other industry leaders for all Apple divisions. Earlier in his career,
Richardson worked at GTE (now part of Verizon), where he advanced through a
number of sales and management positions that included P&L responsibility for
all wireless major account management and sales in California. He holds a
Bachelor of Arts in Counseling Psychology from Antioch University.

"Immersion`s global leadership in innovation, development, and deployment of
haptics technology is nearing a tipping point," said Immersion president and
CEO elect Clent Richardson. "Now is the time to build upon and take advantage
of the company`s strong financial footing, growing intellectual property
portfolio, and global opportunities in the medical, mobility, touch-interface,
and gaming markets. With the successful adoption of Immersion`s technology by
leading brands in markets around the world, our focus will be to execute growth
plans and accelerate customer adoption of our haptics technology worldwide. I
look forward to leading Immersion to the next level and beyond and to working
with Vic and the board of directors to grow value for our shareholders,
customers, and employees."

"The Board and I thank Vic for his many years of service, which have prepared
Immersion with a sound strategy and the financial means for its next phase of
growth. We now look forward to his guidance and active involvement as chairman
of the board," said Jack Saltich, lead independent director of Immersion`s
Board of Directors. "We are confident that Clent`s management experience on
top-tier global executive teams and his solid record of accomplishments in
telecommunications, consumer electronics, software, hardware, and technology
markets around the world will provide the knowledge and leadership Immersion
needs to aggressively pursue its numerous and sizeable opportunities."

LEAKED: Apple to licence haptic technology for iPhone

April 25, 2008

     

Man stares at huge iPhone displayApple Inc is in talks with Immersion Corporation to licence Haptic Technology for its iPhone. Immersion Corporation on Thursday announced that they have appointed former Apple executive Clent Richardson to the position of President and CEO.

A source (Apple Inc employee), who chose to remain anonymous, told us that senior executives of the two companies have already met once on Tuesday and the next meeting has been scheduled for Friday morning. The source confirmed that the executives will continue discussions over licencing and implementation issues of iPhone haptics.

Apple's competitor Nokia - whose upcoming phone is likely to be called Tube 5800 -  has also licenced haptic technology from Immersion Corporation that will enable it to incorporate a wide range of tactile feedback in it cellphones.

Haptic technology refers to technology which interfaces the user via the sense of touch by applying forces, vibrations and/or motions to the user, but it should not to be confused with touch or tactile sensors that measure the pressure or force exerted by the user to the interface.

As we reported earlier, Apple's on-screen keyboard has a major drawback as it lacks "haptic response." In other words, users cannot feel the keys as there is no pressure back on the finger when a virtual key is released.

Haptic technology allows users to use a touchscreen and receive feedback like they are pressing on real buttons through vibration technology.

Immersion Corporation develops haptic technologies that engage the sense of touch in the digital world for communicating, driving, designing, training, or just for fun.

Written by Editorial Team · Filed Under Apple News, Apple Rumors, Mac Media, One Channel, iPhone
Comments

link to Apple rumor:
http://www.palluxo.com/2008/04/25/leaked-apple-to-licence-haptic-technology-for-iphone/

MMR: Volume Spike; 165% > 20-adsv, Stock +18.95%
Friday , April 25, 2008 16:49ET

This is the 1st VOLUME alert for IMMR in the past 7 calendar days.

Trading for Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ NM: IMMR) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 16:45 ET, the stock had already traded 1,406,282 shares via 4,553 trades. The cumulative volume is 164.80% above its 20-day average of 531,075. Normally the stock experiences around 2,545 individual trades per session.

So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in IMMR's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $9.980, up $1.590 (+18.95%).

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $10.620. The price has declined more than 6 percent since then.

Over the last 10 trading session IMMR has traded in a range between $7.290 and $8.700 and is currently trading 51.74% below its 52-week high of $20.680 set on July 13,2007 and 55.21% above its 52-week low of $6.430 from April 04,2008.

In the previous 3 sessions, IMMR trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:

April 24, 2008 --- closed at $8.390 down $0.100 (-1.18%) on 352,900 shares
April 23, 2008 --- closed at $8.490 up $0.020 (+0.24%) on 235,200 shares
April 22, 2008 --- closed at $8.470 down $0.030 (-0.35%) on 298,600 shares

Hi Rmagos, I have to say that I was coming ready to dump my full position at today's open, because I thought the huge rally on Friday was due to the following news:

Immersion Appoints Clent Richardson President and CEO (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080424/20080424006244.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, Apr 24)

But because Clent Richardson worked at Apple and due to meetings between the two companies, this has sparked the following rumor:

LEAKED: Apple to Licence Haptic Technology for iPhone (http://www.palluxo.com/2008/04/25/leaked-apple-to-licence-haptic-technology-for-iphone/)

Thanks for posting this link soxguy and la-onda :)

I'm happy for the ones here still holding their full position, but I also feel sad that I'm never lucky. This super cold hand is getting icy.

Well, I guess that with this rumor out we'll have "buy the rumor" for a few days and then hopefully "sell the news" at a higher price ... say, around the 200 days SMA, currently at $12.47?

I'll hold this half of IMMR a while longer.

The aapl story  is getting around.$11 premarket.

Some good news... if the agreement between APPLE and IMMERSION is to became true

Apple places order for 24-25 million 3G iPhones, according to report - AppleInsider

AppleInsider reports long-time iPod manufacturer and current iPhone builder Foxconn Electronics has been selected by Apple to assemble the company's upcoming 3G iPhone handset, with volume shipments expected to begin this June, says a new report out of the Far East. Citing sources at component suppliers as well as foreign institutional investors, the Chinese-language Commercial Times reports that the Taipei-based manufacturer was recently instructed by Apple to begin procuring component materials for the next-generation touch-screen handsets for an initial test build no later than the end of May. Shipments of the 3G iPhone are expected to top three million units in June with the model likely to ship a total of 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle, the paper added

Quote from: soxguy on April 28, 2008, 08:27:37 AM
The aapl story  is getting around.$11 premarket.

I should have sold yesterday at the open.

Quote from: Rmagos on April 28, 2008, 12:47:47 PM
Some good news... if the agreement between APPLE and IMMERSION is to became true

Apple places order for 24-25 million 3G iPhones, according to report - AppleInsider

AppleInsider reports long-time iPod manufacturer and current iPhone builder Foxconn Electronics has been selected by Apple to assemble the company's upcoming 3G iPhone handset, with volume shipments expected to begin this June, says a new report out of the Far East. Citing sources at component suppliers as well as foreign institutional investors, the Chinese-language Commercial Times reports that the Taipei-based manufacturer was recently instructed by Apple to begin procuring component materials for the next-generation touch-screen handsets for an initial test build no later than the end of May. Shipments of the 3G iPhone are expected to top three million units in June with the model likely to ship a total of 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle, the paper added

Yes, but here's the problem. Even if this rumor becomes reality (I guess that's probable, where there's smoke usually there's fire), it may not be material.

Here's why: Nokia sells 450 million mobile phones a year, which is 18 times more than the numbers you're providing for AAPL's iPhone. And yet, IMMR is down roughly 50% since the Nokia news came out.

I didn't know how much revenue would IMMR collect from each mobile phone, but I figured $1 (due to the settlement with Sony). It was a shock to know that actually it is just $0.05, or 20 times less. Let's say that AAPL, because it sells much lower volumes than Nokia, buys a license from IMMR for, say, $0.08 per iPhone (as Samsung and LG did). Your 24.5 million units would represent just about $2 M a year in revenue for IMMR.

The market cap rose $60 M on a rumor of a potential deal which can bring $2 M a year in revenue.

The fact that IMMR sells its licenses for such a low price completely changes the long term investment story. I'm not saying that it won't go up, but my reason for buying was severely impaired.

I'm going to switch IMMR for another similar company but with more revenues, more visibility and apparently more long term value: AUTH.

The trading plan for IMMR is SELL.

With today's 15% run I am Finally back in the green on IMMR, up 4%.  Now comes the hard part, knowing when to sell since David's portfolio already has.  Good trading and health to all.

poli

Big run-up last week and another today.  What's happening?

Quote from: poli on April 30, 2008, 01:26:34 PM
With today's 15% run I am Finally back in the green on IMMR, up 4%.  Now comes the hard part, knowing when to sell since David's portfolio already has.  Good trading and health to all.

poli

I'm happy that you're making a little money in IMMR poli :)

Quote from: Chainthroer on April 30, 2008, 02:37:03 PM
Big run-up last week and another today.  What's happening?

I guess the move has two main motivations:

1 - IMMR's 1st quarter results will be released tomorrow after the close;
2 - There's this AAPL rumor that everybody is talking about and probably people are buying ahead of the potential news.

My sense of short term timing was weak as I failed to understand that, despite the potential news not being materially all that relevant (certainly not as much as the change in market cap), "buy the rumor" would push the stock higher nonetheless.

$12 is an important resistance from a technical standpoint.

I hope this helps ... good luck!

Ouch, bad results out from IMMR:

• Immersion Corporation Reports First Quarter 2008 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080501/20080501006101.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu 4:05pm)

Revs down 17% sequentially and a return to losses. Unless management confirms the selling of a license to Apple over the conference call (which I don't think would be materially relevant), the stock will probably be down big time tomorrow.

The Main lost a good deal with IMMR, but I think that most people following the story learned a valuable lesson for the future, which is:

- Be in possession of all the material information or be in disadvantage to other players and ultimately, pay for it.

Anyone still in? I am. Up today.

Quote from: soxguy on May 08, 2008, 12:15:30 PM
Anyone still in? I am. Up today.

Good to know, but why?

Are you holding because:

1 - You're still losing and don't want to sell at a loss
2 - Volume has remained high and the stock didn't react all that bad to the revenue and earnings miss reported in Q1 2008
3 - You're expecting news of an AAPL/IMMR licensing deal before selling
4 - You're a long term investor and still see lots of upside in IMMR's value, despite the company selling its mobile licenses for $0.05 per mobile phone (instead of the $1 per phone I initially thought)
5 - All of the above
6 - None of the above

Thanks for your help soxguy, after seeing what you've done with SYX and TBSI I just want to learn.

By the way, after the earnings release, one of the analysts following the stock published a comprehensive report which I'll attach. He explains why an AAPL/IMMR licensing deal would probably be worth about $2 per IMMR share over the long term. He also gives some highlights on the conference call (for example, there was a new design win in the automotive sector - and IMMR is about to collect $3 - $5 for each car sold using its technology, which can be bigger than the mobile market - maybe this is part of your reasoning?)

Just leaving the report and updated chart, good luck :)

After being in this all this time,I want to see where this goes.I'm fuzzy when it comes to figuring the risk/reward angle. Let's just say there are a lot of possibilities,not just from phones. I don't have my life savings sunk into this one,so what ever happens,good or bad,won't be earth shattering. Why is it rising since earnings? I don't have a clue. Stay tuned.

I'm still in, my case wd be yr point 5 and because their tecnology should extend to other fields

I'm still in IMMR & SYX,  should not have sold TBSI on 4/25.  I expect higher price's on both,  but still expect the overall market to go down a couple more weeks.  We will see in the fullness of time. To all good trading and health.

poli

Hope this time it can hold and maybe continue the rally
Happy Easter

HectorGR

Under watch list again

Time to take some off the table - Do your own dd

Watch B.O. over 6.06