This is one of stocks I have been monitoring due to its high volume activity. The Institution/Money Managers have been selling heavy per Lycos I-watch, but the recently upgraded stock rating has some short-term room to gain, IMHO. If not, I'll sell and move onto the next stock on the list. ;)
"Strong quarterly earnings also gave a boost to Starbucks , which rose 2.3 per cent to $30.12 while electronic manufacturer Sanmina-SCI (NASDAQ:SANM) surged 12.5 per cent $4.12."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/051104/fto110420051042465744.html?.v=1
I put my gains from NVAX and HEB into SANM this morning at $4.25 (yes, 10,000 shares).
Here's link to analyst rating:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/sa?s=sanm
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=SANM
Good trading!
Highest "Intraday High-Volume Gainer!" for this morning's activity.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Intraday+High-Volume+Gainers&btnQryFrm=Go//
Wow, what volume activity.
I am a short-term swing trader, so I'll probably hold until Monday.
If you can trade intraday, be sure to take profit after a "significant" gain and buy back on pullback/dip (always).
If you want to buy SANM, wait for a dip, and buy on rebound!
I am off to work! See you later!
I also jumped on this stock today, too. I figure I can afford a little bit of risk after making all that profit on SNTO and SVNX. I'm in with 1000 shares at 4.36. Hope this does as well as the other two.
Leaira
same here, got in this morning.
been a great morning... seems to have stalled at 4.50... looks like a lot of sells were triggered.
hopefully the run will continue with a strong afternoon finish.
good luck!
SIMC is listed as SANM competitor. SIMC is also going up today. Someone said that SIMC will report 3Q earnings next Tuesday. Is SIMC going up because of SANM or because they expect strong earnings? I see that SIMC has a very low float, something like a million shares.
Anyone care to comment? anyone in SIMC? TIA
when it looked like we might not get the final push at close, i thought about taking quick profits and running... but i didn't...
i'm holding over the weekend till monday... hope the run continues.
wow, even after all the gains today... still going up in AH!
have a great weekend everyone!
Good evening!
Nice gain today! Let's recap.
SANM closed at $4.41, up $0.75 (20.49%) with 38 million shares traded!!! Although MACD is in the negative territory, RSI is down to 20, which represents an extreme underbought condition that indicates a strong "BUY" as demonstrated by today's spiking gain supported by large volume activity.
Continued gain next week will pull the 10 MA upwards towards the 50 MA. Today's spiking gain actually caused the 10 MA to "spike" up linear, insted of the typical "curve up."
Nice pick guys. (applaud) SANM will probably test its 200 day ma 5.00! Plenty of upside left!
The unusually large Institutional/Money Manager activity of intraday Lycos I-watch chart made me curious. So I pulled the month chart. Wow, that's some Inst/MM activity!!!
Thanks rogertanker for the link, from Yahoo MB:
Sanmina-SCI surges; profit nearly triples
By Rex Crum, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:30 PM ET Nov. 4, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sanmina-SCI Corp.'s shares surged more than 20% Friday as the electronics contract manufacturer's fourth-quarter profit nearly tripled from a year ago.
SANM (4.41, +0.75, +20.5%) saw its shares climb 75 cents to close at $4.41, one day after its late-Thursday earnings report.
The company said it earned $15.1 million, or 3 cents a share, for the three months ended Oct. 1, up from $5.3 million, or 1 cent a share, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004.
The profit increase came even as revenue fell about 14%, dropping to $2.77 billion, from $3.3 billion.
Excluding one-time items, the electronics manufacturer would have earned $31.3 million, or 6 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast earnings of 5 cents a share on $2.73 billion in revenue, on average.
Sanmina, which makes computers, networking gear and communications equipment for many bellwether technology companies, also said it expects to reports a first-quarter profit, excluding charges, of 6 to 8 cents a share, on revenue of $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion. Analysts' average forecasts stand at a profit of 7 cents a share on revenue of $2.92 billion.
Analysts at Robert W. Baird raised the brokerage's rating on Sanmina to neutral from outperform following the earnings report.
LiveLife,
i've always been curious about the iwatch charts... some one one the yahoo MB commented that it was just "novelty"... and i've always taken it with a grain of salt. just when i think i have it figured out, it always throws me a curve.
first off, there seems to be a discrepency as to what the arrows actually mean. if you click the "how to use price chart" link, it appears the arrows represent an institution's interest signal to buy or sell as the case may be.
same for the "how to use volume chart" link... it says "Each bar represents aggregate institutional buy and sell messages ("advertisements") for a 20-minute interval."
so again, it's not necessarily actual buys and sell from the institution.
now the pie chart... it says, "pie charts allow users to determine whether Institutional or Retail investors are driving today's price movement for this stock."
then it goes on to say that, "After a broker/dealer executes a trade, it often reports the trade to Thomson's..."
so now, it looks like we can use the pie chart to gauge institutional buying/selling...
but wait, there's more!
"Institutional brokers often maintain internal house trading accounts as "market makers." When these firms report their trades it is impossible to determine whether the trades were executed on behalf of an institutional client or for the firm's own house trading accounts..."
that tells that the pie chart can be misleading.
in a nutshell, any broker/institutions can send out buy/sell signals... which may be their intent or may not be but just to manipulate the market. the volume chart, again are only signals, and the pie chart may or may not be accurate depending on how brokers handle the buy/sell order. whether intentional or not, if you notice, it actually refers to them as "market makers"... and we all know they cannot be trusted.
take a look at the 1 week chart.
starting nov 28 to close today, there looks to be more red arrows. and more red volume bars... just by that alone, i would interpret that as insitutions are selling... yet from last friday to yesterday, there was a slow and steady rise in pps. almost like institutions were accumalating under the radar so to speak. and finally, today, again... more red arrows and more red bars... sure they could have been selling into the rise but that doesn't seem their style especially with upgrades.
now if you look at the pie chart for the week, 36%!
so you have red arrow and bar sell signals with 36% insitutional activity, my logical guess would be they were massivly selling... but with that kind of fire power, how can the PPS go up all week and have the gains today as it did?
i have notice this pattern with a number of other stocks... on days where there are big gains, there will be more sell signals and vice versa when a stock is falling.
you could argue the buy low sell high and sell into a rally... but looking at sanm's 1 week iwatch charts, it doesn't make sense.
maybe someone can explain it.
it would be greatly appreciated.
cheers!
stopthemadness,
Yes, you have asked the same questions I have asked and wondered about Lycos I-watch.
What I have learned and "concluded" was this:
Buy/sell "requests" are represented by "light blue/pink" arrows.
Buy/sell "executions" are represented by "solid blue/red" arrows.
When I check the intraday Lycos I-watch chart, I only care about the sold blue/red arrows. Often a request is made, but is cancelled for a number of reasons. I now use Lycos I-watch more of a "guide" than exact representation of Inst/MM activity. Also keep in mind that Lycos I-watch is only a "reporting" site. It can only report the "qualifying" Lycos Inst/MM activity it monitors. It is also a "live" streaming chart, so early morning activity will not show later in the afternoon.
However, Lycos I-watch still provides an invaluable service to us "retail' traders. It is one more tool that we can use to assess a stock and evaluate the activity that surrounds the stock. For this swing trader, more information I can find, the better.
Good trading!
Good morning!
I did some chart analysis this morning and with RSI climbing above 60, towards 70 (RED ovals) indicates possible "overbought" condition to be followed by "selloff" as did late July. However, Thursday's earnings report "tripled" the forecasted target, which changes everything.
If 10 MA continues up and breaks through 50 MA with matching volume activity and with MACD in the positive territory, SANM may demonstrate that it has hit "bottom" and is rebounding.
Recent analyst's upgrade based on Thursday's positive earnings make SANM very attractive. Perhaps all the Institutional/Money Managers that sold may buy back SANM next week. ;)
I also posted BarChart.com's composite indicators:
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=SANM
Time will tell, good trading!
LiveLife if you find time this weekend could you post your thoughts/analysis for HOM on that board http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2173.15
It dipped to the 50 dma this week but found some support there, i am hoping for a pop this week before earnings.. anyones thoughts on HOM ?? Cheers Joe
Hi Joe! :D
Boy, this is a really interesting chart... well, here's my stab at it. I also posted my response at HOM MB.
First some history. I made some nice gains on HOM earlier this year. ;) When hurricane Katrina hit, hurricane plays like ZENX.OB (yes, $60 million US ACE temporary roofing contract!) and HOM, which does building restoration after the initial disaster recovery then restoration and reconstruction) all took off. Yes, HOM is one of 20-40 stocks I monitor. Recently, Avian bird flu plays like NVAX, HEB, SVA, BCRX, GNBT took off on "speculation" and I kinda lost sight of HOM.
Ok, let's look at the chart below and go over some "concrete" basics first. If the stock is actively gaining with rising volume and MACD in the positive territory with RSI below 70, then it is a definite short-term "BUY." And if all three of these criterias are the opposite with RSI above 70, then it is a definite short-term "SELL."
Well, let's go over the "less concrete" issues next. If you look at RSI for August and September, it is way above 70-80+ which indicated that the stock is "overbought" and selling should follow (purple oval), but instead of a selloff, stock price kept gaining!!! (purple box). I believe this was due to the hurricane response buy demand on the stock which drove the price up, despite the high RSI.
Next, recent volume "appears" to be increasing, but I believe that is probably "profit taking" sell volume. If you look at 10 MA, it "peaked" and flattened and begining to go down. If 10 MA approaches 50 MA, this is also a short-term "SELL" signal.
RSI is below 50, indicating that stock is not "overbought" - typically high RSI (70-80+) is a leading indicator of "sell" activity; however, MACD is in the negative territory.
So what does this all mean and what should we do on Monday?
I also posted the Technical Analysis "composite indicators" from BarChart.com.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2173.msg30941#msg30941
It looks like, short-term, HOM will fall in price. Approaching the 52 week high for any stock makes traders "nervous" and there is a selloff as the stock rises towards the 52 week high. If you look at the 1 year Yahoo chart, that's what it appears to be. Once HOM rebounds after this "nervous" selloff, if you once again see the price rise with increasing volume, MACD in positive territory and 10 MA breaking away from 50 MA, then you may see that 52 week high being challenged.
I also attached the MSN stock rating webpage that covers pro/con and risk/return.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp?Symbol=hom
For Monday, I would be very cautious and carefully watch HOM at market open.
Take care, I hope this helped.
That is a very helpful post with tons of information... If I could applaud you I most definitely would. I've been looking at this thing a little bit but with all that information I have a pretty good base and might look more solidly into this thing. I think even if it doesn't bounce the chart still looks pretty good. Its got a good support level just below so I guess we'll just have to see. Thanks LiveLife!
Livelife-- enjoyed your thoughtful posts on NVAX MB. Followed you here. Am late in this SANM opportunity. Any thoughts on activity tomorrow? I would like to particpate.
Ad0150hi
ad0150hi,
I can't wait for the "full" return of the bull market!!!
Before you decide on SANM, there are so many stocks that are showing some great rebound potential next week that I am doing a "comprehensive" review of them right now.
Some of the stocks are SANM, CNXT, FNSR, TMTA, CBMX, NVAX and the list is growing! :D
I'll post my update later.
MTMA = TMTA
;D ;D ;D ;D
Ooops!
Can't spell TMTA!! ;) jpm, I corrected my typo.
Quote from: LiveLife on November 06, 2005, 02:07:38 PM
ad0150hi,
Some of the stocks are SANM, CNXT, FNSR, TMTA, CBMX, NVAX and the list is growing!
Hi livelife,
i've been in and out of NVAX for a while but got out a few weks ago. it seems to have found it's bottom for now but as you said,... it's so unpredictable since it swings so heavily just on hype and news or potential news.
so, you think NVAX is ready for a rebound, huh? i'll keep an eye on it in the morning.
btw, what a joke the nvax MB are! i can't even follow the threads have the time. lol
stopthemadness and ad0150hi,
As I posted on NVAX MB tonight, I am currently working on the new "Knowledge Center" MB thread.
For monday, I am really not sure. All of the previously mentioned stocks, including NVAX have good potential for rebound or gain. I will have better and more information/analysis by tomorrow. I will also have an update on the new "swing trading" MB thread for 3SOF public "Knowledge Center"
Good trading!
Live Life-- dont see your post on NVAX board.
Good evening,
As I stated, I believe SANM is a short-term swing trade for me. I sold on gains this morning (I bought in at $4.25 Friday and sold at $4.52-$4.55) and bought TMTA (26,000 shares!).
I am working on the Knowledge Center "swing trade" thread draft. I'll post link here later this week.
Good trading!
i think SANM had a pretty good day. i was thinking of also getting out today but it seemed to settle down in the afternoon.
AH still seemed to have strength so i'm glad i held.
another up day so i'll play it by ear in the morning.
Reposted from HOM MB:
Last Friday, HOM made a strong intraday recovery as it touched the 6-month chart 50 DMA around $4.67 -- indicating it's continuing uptrend. Monday's actions affirmed this and the key milestone was the fact that HOM did not fall through the 50 DMA. So HOM is still bullish for some swing play. I purchased some positions at $4.73 right after it touched the 50 DMA.
However, there are still some risks with HOM. Watch for heads and shoulders formation as the shoulder might be currently forming. If that is the case, more retracement is looming. This week will be critical in determining HOM' next trend. Monitor it closely.
My [2] cents.
after some nice games last week, SANM seems to be really struggling to move forward into the 4.50+
even our "friends" at iwatch are showing some red arrows...
has the momentum fizzled? is it time to take profits and move on?
thanks
Both TMTA and SANM seem to be "flat" today.
I sold TMTA this morning (26,000 shares at $1.70 on limit sell) and bought PAX on an "extremely short speculative" trade at $0.97 - $1.02 (43,600 shares!). I thought about daytrading PAX before I left for work this morning, but after reading fousc's post about the new CEO, I will hold for now.
TMTA and PAX are David's 3SOF picks (PAX being his "fast" 3SOF).
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3530.msg31575#msg31575
I am still writing the draft for "Knowledge Center" swing trading lessons and I'll post later this week.
Good trading!
Nice steady gains! ;)
LiveLife,
your opinion--is this good for another 10-20% over the next week or so? or is some profit taking likely?
ad0150hi,
Good morning.
The "steady and gradual" gain is good, instead of the "spiking" gains which will drive profit taking. As long as the gains continue to be gradual, I believe you should hold short-term.
At some point, there will be profit taking, watch for it, and if you want to continue holding SANM, buy back on dip with more shares!
The key to swing trading is to continue to maximize profit so that you increase your number of shares by the time you do your "final" sell.
Good trading!
SIMC, a SANM competitor, is moving up. Could there be that earnings are really good?
Also a buy as a nice semi play for the portfolio. ;)
I bought at the open at $4.69 ;D I think the earnings are good enough to break the $6.02 high from last year and to start hitting 52 week highs.
Sanmina Holdings 2Q Losses Narrowed; Revenue Falls 7.5%
Dow Jones Newswires
Sanmina-SCI Corp. (SANM) after the closing bell Tuesday reported a fiscal second-quarter net loss of $103.4 million, or 20 cents a share, sharply narrower than the loss of $1.06 billion, or $1.99 a share, in the year-ago period.
Excluding certain items, earnings for the second quarter ended April 1 came in at $30.5 million, or 6 cents a share, up slightly from $29.3 million, or 6 cents a share, last year.
Revenue for the San Jose, Calif.-based electronics manufacturing company fell 7.5% to $2.67 billion from $2.89 billion last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had forecast earnings of 6 cents a share on revenue of $2.66 billion.
The company forecast fiscal third-quarter earnings of 8 cents to 10 cents a share, excluding items, on revenue of $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion. Analysts are looking for a per-share profit of 7 cents on revenue of $2.76 billion.
Shares of Sanmina-SCI were up 8.2% in after-hours trading Tuesday.
sanm just broke $5 so today is point&figure chart breakout day too with bullish price objective of $7.75 :)
I always take those with a grain of salt ;)
still have sanm. closed at $5.69 today. Up $27k on it so far ;)
Will sell above $6 into brand new 52 week highs soon.
1. Introduction
I was curious about SANM because when I was studying Solectron (SLR) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1907.msg76676#msg76676) SANM appeared to be more attractive.
I'll take a look at it now. If you're new to 3 Stocks on Fire and would like to be a member of an active stock traders community, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
2. Profile
Sanmina-SCI Corporation (SANM) provides customized, integrated electronics manufacturing services worldwide. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=SANM))
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28224;image)
SANM is trading at roughly the same level it was 10 years ago. Hard to recover when a stock had such a bubble and subsequent collapse. But it sure can fly from $4-$5 to $10-$15, right? We'll see about that.
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28225;image)
The medium term chart is bearish, as the right part of the chart is lower than the left part. But, there are early signs that things could change, as the stock is now above the 200 day moving average.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28226;image)
I guess many people watched SANM's rally as a "fill the gap" rally and was pretty surprised to see it close at $4.29, above the $4.21 level. This is bullish behaviour. The short term trend is positive.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28227;image)
The graph above explains a good part of the 2001 and 2002 debacle in the share price, look at that dilution. The company has been more moderate in issuing shares since 2003, so I don't put up a red flag here.
Current market cap is 532.83 million*$4.29 = $2.29 B.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=28230;image)
I see the company didn't file the second and third quarters 10-Q file and received a Nasdaq notification of delisting. They're solving the issues to file the reports, but I don't like this situation at all. Who knows what will come out when they file?
This explains why SANM is a bit undervalued when compared to its peers. Because of the uncertainty.
5. General Overview
Usually I make more fundamental tests, checking revenue and EPS trends, but I don't need to do it in the case of SANM, because I know I can't buy this stock. Financial statements are a crucial part of my strategy to pick stocks, and if I don't have them I'll pass the possible opportunity. This is why I never bought a Pink Sheet stock, there's no sufficient information available to judge the investment's risk/reward potential.
This analysis is part of my daily studies on 3 stocks, so I can find attractive trading opportunities for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, which is a diversified portfolio of long & short US stocks. If you would like to receive my daily analysis on 3 stocks, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).
QuoteUsually I make more fundamental tests, checking revenue and EPS trends, but I don't need to do it in the case of SANM, because I know I can't buy this stock. Financial statements are a crucial part of my strategy to pick stocks, and if I don't have them I'll pass the possible opportunity. This is why I never bought a Pink Sheet stock, there's no sufficient information available to judge the investment's risk/reward potential.
I did well passing the opportunity on SANM, due to the lack of the proper 10-Q statements for the last two quarters. The company today released this:
Sanmina-SCI posts revenue drop in partial report (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/061116/1378429.html?.v=1)
bizjournals.com (Thu 6:13pm)
And the stock dived ...
All Topics on SANM have been merged.
Happy Thanksgiving !
Good luck trading to all ! ;)
SANM has a good chance of going up more today.
Day 4: She is on the move ;D
Cheers
Quote from: stock-kitty on October 16, 2007, 01:20:58 PM
Day 4: She is on the move ;D
Cheers
Here is the chart to reflect the move... ;)
52wk Range: 1.88 - 4.44
Volume: 3,537,012
Avg Vol (3m): 5,519,520
Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
9.22%above 13-day MA
4.76%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 10
Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,165.66
P/E Ratio: NA
PEG Ratio: -57.6867
Next Earnings: 10/30/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Neutral
Press Release Source: Sanmina-SCI Corporation
Sanmina-SCI Corporation Invites You to Join Its Fiscal 2007 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.
SAN JOSE, Calif., Oct. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Sanmina-SCI Corporation
(Nasdaq: SANM - News) announced today that it will host its fiscal 2007 fourth
quarter earnings conference call on Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 5:00 PM ET.
Mr. Jure Sola, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sanmina-SCI Corporation
will lead the call.
What: Sanmina-SCI Corporation's Fiscal 2007 Fourth Quarter
Earnings
When: Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 5:00 PM ET
Web Link: http:/www.sanmina-sci.com
Teleconference
Information: Dial in Number: 877.273.6760 -- Domestic
706.634.6605 -- International
Contact: Sanmina-SCI's Investor Relations at 408.964.3610
About Sanmina-SCI
Sanmina-SCI Corporation is a leading electronics contract manufacturer serving the fastest-growing segments of the global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) market. Recognized as a technology leader, Sanmina-SCI provides end-to-end manufacturing solutions, delivering unsurpassed quality and support to OEMs primarily in the communications, defense and aerospace, industrial and medical instrumentation, computing, and multimedia and consumer sectors. Sanmina-SCI has facilities strategically located in key regions throughout the world. More information regarding the company is available at http://www.sanmina-sci.com.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Sanmina-SCI Corporation
Day 5: ;D
Next resistance around 2.48