Company – 21st Century Holding Co. (ticker: TCHC) is an insurance company that is based in Florida. http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/
Summary – Probably 3SOF worthy. Perfect combination of technical and fundamental analyses. Current price is $26.70. Fair value short term is well over $40. Could go much higher as FY07 projections come to fruition. There is also a quarterly dividend.
Financials - (all in US$)
Period Revenue Income EPS **
FY07E $4.00-5.00
FY06E $3.10-3.20
4Q06E >$0.68
3Q06 $24,770,000 $ 3,029,285 $0.40
2Q06 $32,342,094 $ 8,904,559 $1.19
1Q06 $35,609,073 $ 6,013,312 $0.83
FY05 $1.68
4Q05 $24,502,000 $ 1,419,000 $0.21
3Q05 $23,655,568 $ 1,852,718 $0.28
2Q05 $24,645,557 $ 3,023,541 $0.46
1Q05 $21,867,000 $ 4,786,000 $0.73
**fully diluted, continuing operations only
http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/repindex.cfm
http://www.21stcenturyholding.com/press2.cfm?id=1164
Chart – Speaks for itself.
Indeed, it looks interesting buddjas1, despite the low average volume. I wonder why the sudden revenue and EPS decline in Q3? Another thing that I'm not a big fan of is the fact that they already splashed their estimates on several press releases. Also, the earnings multiple of the Property & Casualty Insurance industry is kind of low, at 11, so not such a huge discount at TCHC, trading at estimated 8.6 times earnings.
You're right, the stock looks undervalued, but not terribly so.
Thanks for the tip buddjas1 :)
On paper, I'm in at 11.33 (9.43ET) for a daytrade because it had a positive open price signal and bounced off the 0.50 fibonacci retracement of the 1 minute chart.
Fibonacci extention 1 minute targets are:
11.79
12.15
12.71
13.64
15.14
17.53
It stalled at the 11.79 target (out in here), went up to 11.85 and started going down.
Currently, it's trading below the lower support line of Andrew's pitchfork.
I wonder where shorts will buy to cover.
Looking at the 5 minute fibonacci extentions and waiting for a 5 minute close above the 8 ema while it is still at least 2.5% above the open.
In again at 11.26 (1 cent above the refreshing 11.25 bid)
Targets:
11.40
11.50
11.67
11.94
12.39
exit signal will be a close below the 1 minute 8 ema.
Out at 11.40
I guess I was right in being suspicious about the company crying out loud about their huge guidance, since they cut EPS estimates from $4.5 to $2. And I don't believe they can make $2:
• UPDATE - 21st Century Holding slashes '07 view; shares plunge (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=11vg30000/*http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh84632_2007-05-03_23-33-12_bng218375_newsml)
at Reuters (Thu 7:33pm)
The stock is down 42% today ???
The reasons they gave for cutting guidance that much are pretty serious Ares. They made just $0.1 EPS in Q1, they'll need luck to make $0.4 in full year 2007, and that means this stock will probably go down to about $4 over the medium term, since the Property & Casualty Insurance industry average earnings multiple is 10.4 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TCHC).
Good luck on your day trade Ares.