3SOF

I am a classic fixer upper!!!!

Disclaimer - - I don't suggest anyone follow me into any of my trades or my evil plans. In fact - - If I post - - with my track record, you should probably take the other side of the bet, because... I tend to break ALL of the rules that make sense to most sensible people. Like:

1) I quit my job 3 years ago, because it was way too stressful and burning me out. And for the last year at said job... I had to give myself the following pep talk as I walked in the door, "You can do anything for 16 hours... except for screw... now paste on that smile ... get in there and make me PROUD!" ... and after I realized that I had my priorities all messed up and quite... when I made my first trade, I had to run to the bathroom to hurl ... yet somehow, I still find trading less stressful.

2) They say to NEVER "gambol" (in the market) with money that you can't afford to lose or you need for your rent/mortgage ... and yet I have a $3500 mortgage to pay every month... and it comes directly out of my trading account. Yes it is an uphill battle that causes me to make bad decisions... or should I say indecisions. Do you hear the sucking sounds???

3) It's smart to diversify. I'm blond and can really only remember 3 things without having to write them all down. SO ... I'm better at putting ALL my eggs in one basket ... and then watching that basket like a hawk.

4) I must have been a crow in my past life, because I find I get WAY distracted with the new hot "shiny bright object" stocks and when I try to think about ALL the stocks on all of my watch lists ... I kind of lose my little mind trying to remember the strategy/trading pattern for each one. I need to narrow my focus. And I tend to "samanthasize" about what a stock could do. Very bad.

5) I'm still a newbie at charting and candle spotting ... please don't LOL at any of my graphs ... someday they will be art... but I would LOVE to master that skill.

6) I really love options, but haven't really figured out what to make of them just yet.

7) I like a good nap when the market closes ... at 1 my time :)

8 ) I'm probably WAY too emotional to be doing this ... as a job. I'd like to cut out the thrill ... a bit.

9) Money management? I never have an entry/exit/repair strategy. I get WAY too attached to the stocks I own as I get caught up in the "story" ... or the "strategy" ... and I've owned stocks that have gone to zero ... that haven't started out as penny stocks... Trust me (this once) it just doesn't feel good to have a great tax loss. Though ... I still own a couple pennies that just never seemed worth selling because of the transaction fees.

10) I'm notorious for watching a stock rally and do ... nothing. Or watch a stock I own fall and do ... nothing.

SO ... on that note. I'm going to focus on 3 things... cause that's my limit. I'll consider any rational explanation/chart from the experts; there are so many awesome people on this site, for good trades/learning etc. But once I get into something - - I'll mute the TV and focus... to the best of my abilities... and try to get in and out every day. Baby likes a good nappy nap and a good night sleep.

1 - I'm going to come up with a QQQQ day trading strategy that lets me take money out every day ... and sleep well at night. It needs to be something that is so technically driven that ALL emotion can be removed.

2 - I'm going to scan for stocks with options that have skewed volatilities... do research ... so that when they move I can hop on and know I'm not chasing the next "shiny bright object".

3 - I would like to come up with a LEAP strategy - where I can buy the future and sell the present to generate income every month.

In the process ... I'm really hoping to correct all of my many mistakes and short comings.

I promise that I will post my trades as they happen ... unless I come up with a strategy ... or 3 that work ... in which case I will just offer up the criteria and post as necessary.

COMING SOON!!!! I'll post what I have on my three strategies and beg for input.

-Samantha

hi samantha,
you are completely insane! i love it :D
everybody talks about taking the emotion out of trading but let me tell you, that is completely impossible.
why?
because there is no such thing as a neutral thought . all thoughts manifest themselves in form at some level. there can be nothing neutral about it.
trading , like everything else, should not be dull , should not be boring . yes , the object is to become a better trader and the money will follow. but truth be told , the reason we do it is to make money. if you didn't you would just paper trade and get good at that. why do we need so much money? well you have to pay your mortgage. i have to travel, others do what ever.  (just as long as the money is being spent). remember money is useless until it is spent. it's as much an illusion as anything else in the world.
the most important thing in trading as in anything is to find your own style.
i love this diary that you have started, and scottish trader, and terliso turning 5000 to 50000. cause i believe you can succeed at this in your own way .
good luck.
maxi

Yes sounds interesting. I do want to share one important life changing advice I had from David here at 3SoF ------->

"Have a real job b/c it extremely stressful to pay bills doing trading".

Thanks I took that one. Trading as source of wealth creation is a different ball game then making a living. I wish you goodluck.

Samantha...U r one crazy nut...and I understand U completely ;)

U gave me a good chuckle and I realized that I was also laughing at myself...you sound alot like me...or maybe i sound alot like u ???

I still never know exactly what i'm doing or should be doing..i keep changing my strategies..i feel like i have tried so many and have perfected none. Although, i do know i want to day and swing trade...would rather not hold stocks for a long period anymore, although i still manage to get stuck in many as i didnt sell them when i should have and now they are down 50% or more...so i'm still accumulating these POS stocks..yay! :)

Well..i wish u the best of luck and hope u find a trading plan that best suits u and allows u to pay off ur daily living expenses and afford u many luxuries as well;D

P.S...for years as a kid i fantasized that I had Samanthas powers...wow..they would really come in handy during trading ;)

good luck and i will be looking out for your posts.

thanks

julia

I'm so glad all of these bad habits are not just mine!!! I've tried to incorporate your suggestions. I keep reading all the posts. Everyone else is so "together" they have a plan and they work the plan ... they're diversified. They get in and out when the charts tell them to... or when they say they will ...they take both gains and losses... none of this speaks to me... just yet. Julia - see below! I twitched my nose and simplified my life!!!! I think we might be on to something!!!! hahahahHAHAHAHAHHA

CHANGES I MADE TODAY:
*Sent resume to recruiter.  :'(

*The "shiny bright object" stock I TRIED to ignore today – CNLG.  >:D
I don't know ANYTHING about it... I'll never be gusty enough to buy it. I didn't let it mesmerize me all day ... though ... really ....only superman could have resisted checking on it ... once or twice...  :-\

*I've deleted ALL my watch list tabs except for 1. Then cut back the list of stocks in that tab and organized them in categories (Own, Penny, Canada, 3SOF, Skew and Qs) so that I'll know why I think they're interesting. AND ... I collapsed all the tabs that I shouldn't be looking at today. That gave me a list of 5 stocks + the DIA for reference. Technically, this is 3 more than I should be looking at ... but it's a HUGE improvement over what I was looking at. Already, I feel less scattered.

*I deleted all of my alerts and made more meaningful alerts for the few stocks I'm TRULY watching. OH ... and I found some killer sound bites to hook my alerts to!!! Sorry...

*Likewise, I deleted all the stocks expect for the few in my watch list from all of my other windows (nasd up/down, strategy ticker etc). I'm no longer going to be distracted by the stock I have never bought/sold ... and will never have the guts to buy/sell.

PROJECTS:
1 - Scan for Strange SKEW options on Tuesdays and this is the list that I'm  tracking on currently:
NFLD http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0 ... though the stock topic is better because ST is tracking on it ... and he's just smart.
ONXX http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7426.0
AGIX http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0

2 - Preliminary QQQQ strategy and criteria – needs to be refined, reordered, backtested and then put into a checklist format. How "nice" that the market fell out of bed today so I could see how criteria SHOULD work. I'm assuming it will be way less obvious as to what I should do in a so/so market. The options I looked at today were the Jan07 43calls (trading range $1.65 - $2.35) and the Jan07 46 puts (trading range $1.80-$2.50) - - surely there could have been an easy dime to grab in there somewhere.... Here is the criteria I have so far:

1)   In the first half hour of trading – I'll look for an agreement between DIA and QQQQ as to direction of the market for the day. Using the fast 6EMA and the slow 13EMA on the 2min chart, if the cross over is agreed upon, I'll consider buying puts or calls depending on the direction of the cross over.
2)   I'll consider the long term support and resistance – If I'm too close to either, I'll expect a reversal. If I get a cross I'll take that as the new direction. I'll also keep my eye out for intraday patterns that may be helpful. So ... I'm going to be drawing a lot of lines...
3)   Since I want this to be an intraday strategy, if I don't get a signal in the first half hour (ya ... amateur hour ...) I'm going to bag it. Initially, I think I need the whole day to make decisions about entry/exit/adjustments.
4)   I'll only consider options that are at least one month out. So, currently only looking at Jan07 options with a Delta close to .7. The current month options are half the price and have great moves ... but mentally I need the time to be right or wrong so I don't get panicky.
5)   If I get in on the Qs, I'll monitor the 1/2/3/5 min charts (of both the DIA and QQQQQ) for direction consensus and sell confirmations. Keeping in mind that the 1 min chart throws way too many signals to really be helpful.
6)   I'm also going to keep my eye on the top 10 NASDAQ volume stocks to make sure they are confirming the direction – it always seems that when one of those gets on a tear the Qs tend to pause or reverse.
7)   It looks like StochRSI(14) crosses over RSI predict buy and sell points... not sure why... cause I don't really know what they are or what they do.
8 )   MACD and Sell Line crosses also seem to predict good buy sell points ... again ... not sure why.
9)   I'm not going to get sucked into a late day rally with this strategy. There always seems to be a reversal (or 2) of sorts in the last half hour. I will try to close my positions by 3pm ... no later than 3:30.
10)   My goal will be to take out a dime on the options. I haven't decided if that needs to be a matter of buying and immediately putting in a sell order ... or if it should be a trailing stop ... or a mental stop. Knowing me ... probably shouldn't be the later.
11)   I would like to incorporate those three magic lines somehow they seem ... pretty magical... hahahaHAHAHHAHA
12)   I need to refine this list ... there's so much in here that I'm sure it will give me a good case of analysis paralysis.


3 – Leap strategy for monthly income. True confession time!!! Before I joined 3SOF, I purchased AVNR Jan09 $5 leaps calls (for $5) and sold the Nov06 $7.50 calls (for $2.75), because the SKEW volatility was HUGE on the Nov calls compared to history and also the Jan09 calls. Hind sight, it was probably too much volatility to be dealing with ... and if that hadn't discouraged me, I really should have sold the $5 calls (for $4.50) instead. Note - the $2.50 Jan calls weren't available until after the fall. So ... I woke up the morning of the big fall and bought back the Nov call for $.05 and now I'm in the hole on the Jan09 calls. I'm hoping for a bit of a rally on that over the next couple years so I can sell calls. I'm tempted to see if I can sell/buy the Jan09 $7.5 calls and eek out a dime here and there to start working myself out of the hole on my cost basis – currently I'm down ($2.30) $2,300. Note – had I sold the $5, I would have been down only $500 or so and that would be way easier to reverse. Hind sight is 20/20. ;)

OK – that's all the stuff I'm currently working on! Let me know if I'm on or off track!
-Samantha

Samantha, it was a big pleasure to read your diary. I know exactly how you feel and what you're looking for.

I was a day trader myself for 8 years or so. I didn't trade stocks, or options, or forex, what a waste of time if you ask me, with all those spreads and commissions. I day traded futures, more specifically, the DAX futures. For 8 years I saw almost every tick of that market and made thousands of trades. I've also met and talked with hundreds if not thousands of traders over these years. Read more than 100 books on the subject.

Believe me, I know about day trading, and I don't do it anymore.

I worry about time. The more I worry about time the more I get long term oriented. Seems like a paradox, doesn't it?

Anyway, this diary isn't about me (what a boring individual), it's about you and your trading. You're fighting, and that's a good thing, because you really have to fight a lot to beat this game over the long term.

I'll be watching you fight and will try to help in everything I can.

Thanks for this very interesting diary, keep up :)

Totally not trying to be a spammer ... but it is MY DIARY...
DAVID... do you ever get mistaken for Matthew Goode??
http://imdb.com/name/nm0328828/
There I go Samanthasizing ... again...  ;)
-Sam

That made me dizzy Samantha..lol.

I have no clue about options and putting that call and calling that put ???...i just trade the shiny bright objects that decorate my monitor from the otc and pink world :)

well..unlike David, I just want to daytrade..im not good holding anything long term, seems that i just end up holding them and watch them slowly disappear into the abyss. But, i have to still learn how to daytrade and end up with a profit...harder then it looks :). I have to learn to sit on my hands at times instead of chasing anything that moves...and be able to recognize real momentum stocks, nots ones that just do fake breakouts. My entry and exit points are still bad, got to stop hesitating.

Well...does look like ur trying to focus and define ur strategy and i'm sure u will keep honing and refining it to make it your perfected method of trading.

good luck Sam...keep it up :)

julia

hi julia,
do you have a method for day trading? what intraday program do you use?
i have medved quotetracker and i use just two indicators . volume and cci.
5 minute chart with heiken sen candlesticks. with pivot suport and resistance indicators.
thanks
maxi

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on November 27, 2006, 08:39:51 PM
Totally not trying to be a spammer ... but it is MY DIARY...
DAVID... do you ever get mistaken for Matthew Goode??
http://imdb.com/name/nm0328828/
There I go Samanthasizing ... again...  ;)
-Sam

Lol, no, never heard of him.

You should try futures, I think you have a better chance of winning at day trading there than day trading options. Check out my broker, www.velocityfutures.com (I think you'll find X-Trader so cool)

Good luck :)

OK David - your secret is safe with me... ;) I'll check out the link. Thanks for sending it!

OK ... I CAN'T HACK IT ANYMORE!! Instead of ignoring the shiny bright object stock of the day ... today that was CSUR.  Yesterday is was CNLG ... the day before that it was PNTR ... and of course there was ZVUE. Can someone PLEASE explain how you trade these quick running stocks? It closed yesterday at $3.34 ... there has never been any volume ... it opened up 14% @ $3.80 ... no news on my screen...that was the low tick on the day and it just ran from there. SO my questions are ... what is the setup... do you know about these kinds of stocks before they move by doing some kind of obscure stock ... twisted type of research?? What flagged you that 14% would turn into 300+%? And when after just a couple minutes it had a 100-200% increase ... how did you know it would go higher? How do you know when to get in and get out? When you place an order do you include a stop ... so it's up or out? I keep thinking that if I buy it will turn right around and go back down. What do you look at??!! How do you do this?!! Please help ...

**Awesome help that I got from KSLIFKA on shiny bright object stock spotting and catching (applaud):**
I watch the pre-market most active list.  Most of these stocks will be low float stocks and ones that have been beaten down.  I look to make sure that it is at least above the 50dma before I buy.  Better yet to have the 3 magic lines below. Watch on Level 2 to see the bid and ask race widly early.  Because of its low float, CSLR this morning had a .50 spread between the bid and ask and it was going nuts.  I try to find a support level on the daily chart to enter. Eventually the volume kicks in and the bid and ask get closer. Hope this helps...even though it's not very technical.  Just takes experience seeing it happen.

PROJECT UPDATES:
QQQQ Strategy:
RickJust - I've added CCI w/volume & pivot points with support and resistance to a 5min chart that has all my other criteria... I still need to figure out what CCI is telling me. J Thanks for the suggestions! Now if I just knew what all these lines are telling me!!! hahahahaha

When the stock market is flat on the day ... so is my QQQQ strategy. If the goal is to take at least a dime, it could have been done today, but I didn't feel like there was a good market direction signal in the first half hour. So, I guess to the criteria, I need to add that Becky Quick needs to scream 'IT'S BURNING DOWN!!" ... OR "THIS MARKET'S GOING TO THE MOON!!" Some sort of pre-market pump would be helpful. hahahHAHAHAHA
     The options I watched:
     Jan07 43 call – range from $1.50 to $1.80
     Jan07 45 put – range from $1.60 to $2.00

Strange Skew Stocks:
NFLD, ONXX & AGIX ... all seem to be falling, but the IVs are still high. My NFLD spread is back in the profit zone ... but with the swings it keeps making, I'm not sure it will be able to stay between 10 & 15 by January expiration... or right around 12.50 by December expiration...

The new stocks with strange skews that came out on my screen ... Kind of a long list. I'll narrow down the list and post only the pertinent movers in the option folder:
TELK
NLY
TE
MAS
MLS
OVTI
DG
VCI
SKS
PLAB
DG ... this one has rumors flying
LPX
C

-Samantha

Quote from: rickjust on November 28, 2006, 01:50:29 AM
hi julia,
do you have a method for day trading? what intraday program do you use?
i have medved quotetracker and i use just two indicators . volume and cci.
5 minute chart with heiken sen candlesticks. with pivot suport and resistance indicators.
thanks
maxi

Hi Maxi,

I use microcaptrade to find moving stocks. It only tracks otc and pinks, but good for spotting moving stocks. I have huge watchlists and one of them is of  gpattern stocks (basically stocks that had large movements recently) and keep them on watch to see if they break their gspots. Also, my filters are very basic, so i literally see pretty much everything moving in the otc and pink penny world...nothing much gets past me I have tons of alerts i set to get notified of price movements, pullbacks,  breaks and breakdowns. I also watch for intraday price breaks of stocks that are moving well with good volume and try to buy their breakouts. I watch for news to see if it has any positive effects on stocks (or negative..which could help me bail out of a stock im in, or possibly buy a bounce, although dont really like those too much). Pretty basic and simple methods i use, but still need alot of work on my entries and exists...mess those up alot..lol.

I'm also watching for Terliso's famous 3 magic lines :). But, i also do like when i see the stock break a 50ma...often they seem to continue from there on its break. I also like to watch for channel breakouts.

I dont really do any DD at all on a stock, so no fundamentals whatsoever...i usually dont even know the companys name. Basically, I just look for momentum stocks.

I sometimes play those strange low float, low vol. stocks that move out of the blue,..u know stocks obviously being pushed by a group...sometimes i do ok...sometimes i dont..but i never put to much in those, becasue u can literally lose all of it asap. I think i will stop playing those unless they have decent vol, some of those run crazy..but they are pretty dangerous.

glta

julia

RickJust – I pulled in CCI/Volume & intraday PPs and I think it's REALLY helpful. I had taken out Volume because the Qs just have a lot ... but there ARE variations, so I put it back in. Couple questions for you. When do you start taking buy/sell action based on the CCI? The CCI scale on my computer is -100, 0, +100. Let's say the stock is heading down. The CCI is below -100. Volume is picking up. The CCI turns the downward trend corner and starts heading north. Do you buy the stock as the CCI turns around and starts heading north, or as it crosses above the -100 ... a cross above 0 ... or do you wait till it pushes through +100? I'll assume the reverse is true ... so if you do something different on the way down, let me know! OH and are heiken sen candlesticks different than normal candlesticks? I can't find anything on the web about them.

Julia – I'm convinced you're my fearless evil twin! I'm learning a ton from you!

David – OK ... futures ... Oil/Gas/Wheat/Gold/Metals?? Zzzzzzzzz hahahahaha Please don't make me trade futures ... nothing brings me more suspense than holding my breath for the EIA and gas inventory reports... hahahahahaha!!!!  ;)

The options I watched today - Still could have taken out a dime in either direction ... lining up my criteria and indicators will be critical:
     Jan07 43 call – range from $1.60 to $2.00
     Jan07 45 put – range from $1.40 to $1.70

-Samantha

hi sammy,
love your diary.!!
i was using the macd for day with slow stoch but i changed to the cci after reading this web site . http://www.woodiescciclub.com/start.htm

i use the support and resistance lines a lot in my day chart, more than the cci . the cci gives me an indication of wether the move is strong or not over 100 or under 100 in conjuction with the mood of the day. is the day feeling bearish or bullish.  i like volume it is a good indication of a move . volume is really important to me . you couldn't find hieken sen cause there isn't one .
i meant , heikin - ashi. this is different to the normal candle stick cause it indicates the trend,
here is the same chart using normal candle stick and heikin ashi. you can see the first chart gives a good indication of the trend where as the second is a little choppy.
maxi

here is a chart of the bright and shiny thing for the day and how i woulda coulda shoulda traded it . ( or in the words of o.j. " if i did it this is how i would do it" )

maxi

Maxi - Every time you post ... I learn WAY too much!  >:D
Thank you for all your help! Though ... those candles you use are cool BUT just a bit creepy!! They're totally able to flip a down tick into an up tick... that's wild!

I'll scope out that site ... looks like I need to spend some time there ... and I need to play with the Finch retracement concept. I never knew which direction it went. And it looks like there's a retracement and a fan ... are none of these indicators "easy"?? We need to come up with the ... "Hey bozo ... BUY RIGHT NOW .... AND... SELL RIGHT NOW" indicator. Do you know how much we could make???
-Sammy

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on November 29, 2006, 07:57:02 PM
Maxi - Every time you post ... I learn WAY too much!  >:D
Thank you for all your help! Though ... those candles you use are cool BUT just a bit creepy!! They're totally able to flip a down tick into an up tick... that's wild!

I'll scope out that site ... looks like I need to spend some time there ... and I need to play with the Finch retracement concept. I never knew which direction it went. And it looks like there's a retracement and a fan ... are none of these indicators "easy"?? We need to come up with the ... "Hey bozo ... BUY RIGHT NOW .... AND... SELL RIGHT NOW" indicator. Do you know how much we could make???
-Sammy

hi ,
yes they flip the candle but the beauty of them is they are following the trend, they take the
" noise"  out of the chart. ( but they can't take the noise out of my head!)
yes so many indicators. so little time. simplify.
Q. why is the stock going down damn it?
A. People are selling and visa versa
maxi

OK ... RealDeals21 - applaud for the trading bootcamp today. You really are the "real... deal". I'll do better tomorrow. I PROMISE!!!!!

Might have a lead on a job ... that's progress!

I'm still playing with the criteria on my QQQQ chart. My biggest problem is that hind site is 20/20 ... and looking back at it after the market closes, I can say boy this really pegged the reversals ... but when you drill in ... there are other indicators that would have given an obvious sell signal. Still looking for that brown nosing system ...you know ... the one where all the indicators line up in support of the boss!! hahahah

I'll post is as soon as it's not so colorful... and if it stays colorful ... just want to make sure it's not laughable!!!!

The options I should have watched ... had I not been at camp all day :) :
     Jan07 43 call – range from $1.75 to $2.05
     Jan07 45 put – range from $1.31 to $1.65 ... or probably....
     Jan07 46 put - range from 1.95 - 2.30

Of the stocks I found on my Tuesday screens, there's only one that still has a volatility skew: 

TELK - IV Dec IV is 136, JAN07 is almost 200 ... IV Jan09 is only 60s. This one has been showing up on my screen with less extreme IVs ... It's getting to the point where it can't be ignored.

This is the Stock Picking TELK thread:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=765.msg73891#msg73891

I've started the following Options thread ... so as not to bore anyone with a good WOO HOO!!! High IV Option indicator! sorry ... :
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0
-Samantha

hey samantha,

I've been a bit quiet here on3sof this week (taking a little break after a walloping on monday and tuesday - need to re-collect my wits ;))  But I thought I would chime in with yet another breakout indicator.  I think Leaira mentioned this somewhere else, but it can be good...  Using the bolinger bands to spot breakouts intraday and longer term.  Look for when the BBs narrow and then start to widen - the key is when price action is above the centre line and the lower band starts to move down.  Thats your breakout.  Same thing goes for sell-side signals on breakdowns (see end of day sell signal on the VPHM chart).  This is something I am just starting to experiment with, and it doesn't work all the time, but might be worth a look in terms of spotting when momo is building and fading.

Good stuff here though.... you're definitely getting folks chirped up with your crazy ideas! (you might even get some of us into options!!!)

ST - I pulled up your profile yesterday to make sure you were posting and hadn't slit your wrists. I miss it when you post a lot ... I learn so much from you.

OK ... I've added Bollinger bands to all my graphs. And as I watch the market fall out of bed ... again this morning ... those bands are working nicely. Thanks for the suggestion.
-Sam

QQQQ Strategy - OK ... so ... I've pulled in 20 indicators and grouped them into 5 study windows. Sounds like something only a brunet COULD do ... or that a blond WOULD do. ;) hahahaHAHAHAHAH

The one window I'm really confused about ... well... relatively speaking...  is the set of indicators that have a 75 / 25 scale ... StochRSI14, %R, %D, %DS, %K ... In fact, I only see 4 lines and when I narrow it down %K & %R seem to be graphically identical. When I read the descriptions ... they pretty much ALL sound the same to me. I can see that some move faster than others, some are more choppy or smooth – the smoother they are they later they are to give signal and the choppier they are the more whip saw signals they give ... so ... does anybody know which one is best for prompting entry/exits?
-Sam

hi,
don't know about those indicators but here is a chart of the qqqq's i am wondering now that it has broken the 10ma  will it pull back to the 50ma.?

Hey Maxi!!!
That's the burning question. Well ... other than wondering what your doing in your picture ... are you eating, playing the guitar or flipping off the photographer?? hahahahahHAHAHAHA Inquiring minds what to know!!!

Overbought/sold indicators perplex me. I know I should be using them, but don't know how. They all sound like they are supposed to tell the same story. But they show slightly different trend/timing. So I feel compelled to pull them in, if only to add a little color and then ignore them. I've pulled in CCI with Volume, like you suggested. And I really like that one. I just wish it wasn't so squished up on my chart. But I like that combo. SO ... if I have CCI ... do I need all the rest. CCI was an easy keep - it has a -100/0/+100 range ... no other indicator uses that one!

What moving averages do you use? I kinda like the concept of the 6 EMA with the 13EMA ... I like that they give me weighted to the present current information rather than using simple moving averages. Though, when it comes to the 50 ... that's a wellknown simple moving average support level. Well ... and then I pull in the famous "magic lines" ... but what sane person doesn't?  ;) Have you found 10 to be significant support? I've never looked at it, because 6 seemed to work for me and compared to 10 crosses, the lines were too close to see any explosion.

I'm no technical chartist but when I drew the resistance and support lines for the Qs... the low tick on Friday PERFECTLY touched my line and then it bounced up. These last couple days have given me the creeps. My common sense says that if you can't get a tickle me Elmo for under a million bucks ... or a weed whacker (hint hint Santa)...  the next best thing is something in the tech world. There are still a couple people without an Ipod, myself included. :) So I think the holidays should be good for tech ... but boy that chart has got my "Samantha sense" working overtime.  I'd really like to have my plan in place so I can get a good signal and mindlessly hop on! As soon as I have it all put together, I'm going to run through 80 days to back test and see how it does ... then I'm going for it. See the chart below ... no laughing ... I mean it ... it's not even the one I'm "working on".  >:D

Maxi - - You're such a sweetie for always helping me out!!!! Applaud 

And ... on a random holiday related side note.  I think I speak for all of us on the 3SOF site ... that it sure would be nice if Santa would keep Traderdog and Co. from creating new threads for Setravis to merge all the time. I almost forgot that Setravis used to have the time to actually contribute incredible stock picks/revelations/charts etc. Does anyone remember when his greatest contribution was not a constant string of, "Stock ABCD has been merged, please use the search functionality before starting a new thread." And, I guess, if we can't have that ... I'll just settle for world peace.
-Samantha

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on December 03, 2006, 07:41:10 PM
Hey Maxi!!!
That's the burning question. Well ... other than wondering what your doing in your picture ... are you eating, playing the guitar or flipping off the photographer?? hahahahahHAHAHAHA Inquiring minds what to know!!

hi samantha,
i am in paris eating creme brule'. i took my daughter for her 16th birthday this year. I cut her out of the pic,
as for the ma's . i like 5day 9 day 10 and 13,. and a bounce off the 50 day if it is to continue bullish.
but here is the hardest thing. if in doubt ,leave it out. i have been wondering myself about all these technical indicators and mostly you can't read too much in them as they are lagging indicators . exept the cci. so you are basically left with a puzzle that you try to piece together to find what the picture is . the problem is once you have done that you may still be wrong about that picture.
what you can do is decide which way it is heading and wait for confirmation, ( i have failed the waiting game many times!)
rock on,
maxi

Option Skews - Interesting day. ONXX failed in their Phase 3 trials and the stock fell 30%. I "knew" it was going to move because I've been tracking the volatility in the current month options. And, it moved more than I assumed it possibly could. So ... where does that get me? How do you take advantage of that? The options were too expensive to really consider. And with a 30% swing in either direction, taking a stock position, long or short ... could have really done some damage if you didn't pick the right direction. There might have been a good calendar spread in there. Anyway - I need to figure out a plan for dealing with these stocks ... otherwise they're just going to frustrate the crap out of me.

QQQQ - I took Maxi's advice and cut out all of the 75/25 indicators. They're taking up realestate on my screen and I just can't seem to figure out how they add value.

Attached would be a textbook example of a buy and sell signal ... even though it spans 2 days. :) The BUY/SELL in the attached chart is generated everytime the 6EMA and 13EMA cross. I was able to overlay the DOW onto my QQQQ chart, so I don't have to keep flicking between them. The DOW ticks are the grey sticks. I think I like the indicators I've chosen. Let me know if you see any glaring issues. :)
-Samantha

QQQQ - This was pretty flat today, so I didn't get any major buying/selling signals. Maxi - I read up on the CCI and I'm totally bought in now. The documentation from that site you gave me is a real snoozer ... not quite sure what the heck they're talking about through most of it. But what I did understand, I really liked.

These are the new skewed stocks I'm keeping an eye on. Not sure any of them merit a post in the option folder just yet. A couple of them, the option prices are really close. Not sure if the stocks just never move, if it's a misprint, offer pending or what. But it seems like if you can get close to a free calendar spread, there should be no harm no foul... right? OK ... here's my new list.

High current IV:
CPRT – Dec 25 calls are 180 IV, the Jan 25 calls have 92IV and the Jan09s are at 50IV.
WIND – Dec IV is 200,  Jan07 IV is 100 & Jan 09 IV is 60.
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50
Disregard MCDT – Dec options have IV 100s, Jan07 IV is 68, Jan09 IV is 54. Maybe a calendar spread? - there is an arbitrage in process

All options are about the same price:
ALD
Wait - Disregard these - the reason the options are close is because of the arbitrageAPCC CZN ... figured it had to be something

OPEN/still waiting for move:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

CLOSED:
ONXX - fell 30% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7426.0 )

OK ... Must get to bed ... have interview tomorrow. Dang it!  >:D
-Samantha

Too busy brushing up for my INTERVIEW ... couldn't really trade. QQQQs were flat but doable had I paid attention. New skew stocks have been updated in the post below. A number of the stocks where the options were too close to be believable do have arbitrage activity ... so I've noted that they should be disregarded.

OK ... tomorrow I'm playing with Heelys. No matter what it's ticker is! I figure if I declare it now, it's not like an impulse purchase of a shiny bright object stock tomorrow. hahahahHAHAHAHA
-Samantha

Sam..u kill me :)...and i'm exhausted after reading ur posts...ur such a whirlwind :)

Hey...what interview? i thought u were going to be a trader rather then partake in the in a 9-5er normal job? ;)..with all this time ur spending learning about trading ...and calling and putting things over there and then calling them back over here and stuff..why the job interview now...huh? 'splain please.

julia

Julia - Stocky made me get a job...

Quote from: stocky on November 26, 2006, 11:09:43 PM
Yes sounds interesting. I do want to share one important life changing advice I had from David here at 3SoF ------->

"Have a real job b/c it extremely stressful to pay bills doing trading".

Thanks I took that one. Trading as source of wealth creation is a different ball game then making a living. I wish you goodluck.

Don't worry though ... it's only a temp job ... so I can still contribute all of my goofy option ideas and such. And the best part is that it's only a temp job, so unless they want to pay me a TON of money for overtime ... it will only be 40 hours a week. :) I just probably need an after hours plan ... add that to the list! ... unless I can actually sneak away to do a little market time. :)

I've been trying to trading for almost 3 years ... I'm completely gutless ... just ask RealDeals21. I just wish I would have found this site 3 years ago when I was in my formative trading years. I know I would be better/stronger/faster by now. I've learned so much from everyone on this site. And, Julia - your my penny trading hero!!!! No job can keep me from posting!!!!!! hahahahahaha
-Samantha

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on December 06, 2006, 01:10:35 AM
High current IV:
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50

Ok - Taking NUVO off my watch list. It fell 80+% this morning when it's Phase III trial failed.
-Samantha

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on December 11, 2006, 09:57:02 AM

Quote from: SamanthaStephens on December 06, 2006, 01:10:35 AM
High current IV:
NUVO – Dec IV is 60, Jan IV is 95, Jan09 IV is 50

Ok - Taking NUVO off my watch list. It fell 80+% this morning when it's Phase III trial failed.
-Samantha

since nuvo fell so much, anyone see value in the stock.  I guess for options, no leaps for 2.50 or 5 strike price yet.

Hi Catrader -
That's a good question. Biotech confuses me, so when I look at the company I don't know how to evaluate their pipeline and their current financials.
http://nuvelo.com/ (http://nuvelo.com/) is their home page. I'd have to spend a couple days looking it all over if I was to even consider the stock. The only thing I'm positive of is that it's certainly cheaper than it was on Friday... ;) ... though I'm not conviced that it's done getting cheep.

I'm not considering it until it has options that are close to the money ... I'm assuming that they will post with December expiration. When they post those, we might be able to divine a consensus on it's direction.
-Samantha

All righty - Here's my progress report - by Samantha Stephens

OK - tomorrow I start my new job. If anything ... this job thing has kept me from getting distracted with the shiny bright object stocks. And ... to my list, I need to add a plan for trading AM to AM ... that doesn't require constant vigilance during the day ... or maybe something ... with a longer horizon. I should probably focus on the leap strategy ... or something like that. All of this should make Randolph happy ...  :-\

QQQQ - I like my criteria, have been watching it for the last week and I don't see how the indicators can get any better. The only thing I wonder about is the time frames. Not sure if it's something that can be done in one day ... much less the first 1/2 hour when I'm looking at the 5min chart. There's just not a lot of 5 min increments in a day ... I like how I don't get a lot of false signals ... maybe there's a compromise in there some place.

STRANGE SKEW STOCKS -
NEW WATCH LIST:
VRTX - Lots has been said in the news about new drugs with Merk and it was added to the Nasdaq 100. If the options don't start evening out, it's probably something else.
COGN - Not a huge skew ... so just watching
DPTR - Caught a downgrade from AGE. Not a huge skew ... so if the downgrade is the issue, it should even out.
PACR - No news - IV in Jan07 is 50 ... IV in Jan09 is only 15... curious....

WATCH LIST STOCKS REMOVED:
ALD – I think my trading platform just makes the options on this one look goofy but not actionable. CPRT & WIND – The options have gotten back in line after the volume spikes day on 12/6. There may be something bigger in store, but the options are no longer showing a skew for either stock

OPEN/still waiting for move:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

CLOSED:
ONXX - fell 30% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7426.0 )
NUVO – fell 80+% ... never got around to making it a separate post.

Ok ... that's all I have... I'll miss you all tomorrow while I'm slaving away at my new 9-5. Dang it... ;)
-Samantha

Ok ... love the new job ... not as much as all of you ... but it will do. ;)
No time to watch the QQQQs or figure out an AM to AM strategy... Being on the west coast, I'm still trying to deal with the time change of going back to work 9-5... and not getting a nappy nap at 1. hahahaHAHAHAHAHA

If anyone has any good ideas for an hands off strategy ... I'll listen. :)

But here is an update on the skew stocks I like to track:

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
NFLD - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7227.0
OK ... NFLD fell out of bed in after hours trading when it was announced that 46 of their patients died compared to 35 on the "standard treatment".They are saying it's preliminary ... not significant...but this just breaks my heart.

OPEN/still waiting for move:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0

NEW WATCH LIST:
ALD - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching
KTC - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching

WATCH LIST REMOVED
VRTX - no longer has options that are skewed - course the stock has dropped 13%
COGN - The skew has gone
DPTR - The skew has gone
PACR - The Jan09 options have been removed

OK ... I guess that's all for now. :)
-Sam

OK - think I'll pass on doing the "Samantha Skew Report" today. With no trading on Monday, I'm not sure I'll be able to find anything interesting. I've cleared out my watch list and removed one of my skew stocks. That only leaves me with one stock still waiting to move... AGIX. Keep an eye on this one. I can't get a feel for the timing of the move, but everyone is expecting the move to be really big ... up or down.

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
TELK - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7760.0 - fell over 70% when their cancer drug dissappointed.

OPEN/still waiting for move:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0

WATCH LIST REMOVED:
Both of these just never got interesting. The IVs were skewed at such a low level, that I think it's not worth tracking them.
ALD - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching
KTC - perhaps it's after hours quotes ... they just look odd...watching

-Samantha

OK ... so with the holidays and short weeks and all ... I haven't run the Samantha Skew Report in a couple weeks. I ran it tonight and there's nothing new to report.

I know you all hang on that report for brilliant ideas ... hahahah ... OK ... maybe not. ;)

So, the only stock I had left was - AGIX. I'm not convinced the moves are done, but the options are no longer skewed, so I'm taking if off the list. I now have no stocks to watch ... until I find some new ones!

SKEW STOCKS
REMOVED:
AGIX - http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7413.0

So ... what have I learned this week? Working with people who refuse to join the technological revolution ... and automate their processes ... are frustrating. Neighbors that can afford to pitch in on locking mailboxes but won't ... are infuriating. And confronting littering neighbors ... takes balls that I now know I have ... and it's a great adrenalin rush! Boy I miss trading the market ... I'm sure everyone around me wishes I would lock myself in my office and just leave them all alone!!!!! hahahahahHAHAHAHAHAHA

I pray for snow so I can play with you all in the market.

I'll post revelations as I get them...

Over and out!
-Samantha

  It's been a while since you've been here. Are you still trading or taking a breather?
   

I think you could call my absence a required breather. I got a job, my computer crashed ... ok ... so it was 10 years old ... only had a 16 gig hard drive. hahahahaha

The new computer came with Vista and that isn't compatable with my trading software. My online broker warned me ... but I just figured that was a friendly ... if you load it ... it will probably run ... but don't count on us helping you if you have issues. Turns out, it really doesn't run. So I need to figure out how to get that resolved.

So I can't really track on the market as much as I want to ... and without my trading software, I can't come up with any fun option ideas.

I think it's the gods way of telling me to take a break ... hahahahHAHAHAHAHA

But don't you worry ... I'll be back ... I just need to make you all miss me a bit.
-Samantha

You should not use Vista yet, it is a new operating system..let it sit at least for a year before buying it - lots of bugs and incompatibility with hardwares and softwares out there. :D

Hi Samantha

Sorry to hear about your computer problems, been there done that, so I know how you feel.  I agree with Terliso that I would not switch to Vista for at least a year or so until most of the bugs are ironed out.

Assume maybe you had Windows XP with SP2 on the old computer, you might consider putting that operating system on your new computer.  (unless the 10 yr old system  had something like Windows 95, then forget it).  Of course Bill G / Mr. Softy, does not like you to move the operating system from one machine to another and will make you jump thru a few hoops to do it, but it usually is possible, might need to get a computer geek to help you thru it.  Also can be a few extra hoops if you have an XP upgrade disk rather than a virgin OEM install disk, but still possible.

At this point I would also recommend adding a second hard disk, they are relatively inexpensive these days and give you a lot of benefits.

Years ago I got tired of occasionally deleting something I later wanted, or had a problem that corrupted some data that I later wanted to retrieve, or a hard disk crash.  I started this system in DOS way back when running Windows 95, I'm sure there are lots of systems that you can buy now that will do similar things, but this still works well for me.

My system is about 3 yrs old, running XP SP2, and I have two separate hard disks.  I partition each hard disk with separate drives for the;  1- operating system,  2- data,  3- temp files and 4- backup data.  I run a batch file automatically every night (3:00 AM) that copies my data over to the secondary hard disk backup section, and I bump these files back for 7 days, then bump back 4 weekly copies which then bump into 4 monthly copies. So I can also go back a fair ways if I need to find some old data that hasn't been corrupted by some recent event.

I also clone an image file of my operating system into the operating system area of  the backup disk  (manually every couple of months).  That way if I have a hard disk crash I can just change the boot system to start-up in the other disk and I'm back up and running in about 3 minutes.

Just some ideas you might want to consider.

Happy Investing / Trading
Quasi

I agree with Quasi...you have to partition your primary hard drive, if your primary hard drive has 80gig capacity, partition it to 4, 20gig each. Install 4 operating systems; 1 each/partition this is called "Quadruple Boot" 2 for XP & 2 for Vista. and buy a secondary hard drive specifically for storing data or for back-up use. Don't forget to install anti-virus program for each operating system, It's time consuming but worth it.

I did this in my computer, if one of my operating system will crash while the market is open, all I have to do is re-start my system and switch to the other OS and continue the stocks trading and deal with the computer problem later.

I still have Local Disk(G) & (H) available and these are reserved for Vista, a very sleek OS it's very similar to Mac OS X but I'll buy Vista after a year or so, I'll let others use it first and let them deal with the Microsoft bugs. ;)

Hi all,

Yes I agree with Terliso, re anitvirus on for each operating system.

However I also add the following for security.

1- Do not connect directly to the internet, go thru a hardware router, this will block alot of unwanted unsolicited traffic / hackers.  I run a 3 computer network that is hardwired off my router, if you use a wireless one make sure the connections are securely passworded.   And avoid using the cheaper hubs to split you internet to multiple computers as they don't care, they pass thru all requests in both directions.

2- Run a fire wall on all computers, I use ZoneAlarm the free version.  Works great and is quite configurable and blocks unauthorized outgoing traffic also.  Don't rely on Windows fire wall as it is not very configurable and does not block any outgoing traffic from trojans that are trying to "call home", ie little programs that get on your system, gather info, then connect to the internet and forward that info to who knows where without your permission.

http://www.zonelabs.com/store/content/company/products/znalm/freeDownload.jsp


3- Anti virus, used pay for Norton, now I just run the free version of AVG from Grisoft.  No bells and whistles but works fine.

http://free.grisoft.com/freeweb.php/doc/2/

4 - Go to Gibson Research and check out your system security, one of the best sites on the web for checking your system against hackers, plus lots of other security info.  To check your system security just follow the link below and go down to the section on "Shields Up", you will then be guided on how to check your systems port security.   My system is set up to operate in full stealth mode, ie even if someone gets my IP address and trys to hack me it appears as if there is no physical machine currently at that address.

http://www.grc.com/default.htm


Just  a few more ideas to look into.

Quasi

Ya... I know.

Usually I'm a late adopter. But ... just this once, I thought I'd go for it! hahahahah....

D'oh!

I'll get it figured out... somehow...
But... I think you're all missing me ... and that was in fact part of my evil plan!
>:D
-Sam

OK - Thought I'd give you all an update. :)

I talked to schwab and they got my trading software to work!!!! And ... I figured out the easiest way to get my contacts/calendar/tasks from old computer to new was just to email them to myself. Not very hightech ... but what do you expect from someone who just got rid of her 16 gig computer. So ... now I'm feeling pretty spunky about Vista ... now if I could just figure out where they hid everything in Office 2007 ... I'll be set!!!!!!

Ok ... I'll post interesting stuff as soon as I find something!
-Sam

Welcome back and remember you can always ask for help even if it doesn't concern stocks.
Even if you don't know anyboby on this site look at the response you got about you're computer and vista.
It's a community and that's what makes this site special.
 

Tell me about it! I traded stocks for 3 years ... alone ... until I found this site in November. I wish I had found it sooner. I'm convinced these are the funniest, smartest people I will ever hope to meet. Every time I log on ... somebody dimples my brain. :)
-Sam

Great
Now don't stay gone so long and keep posting about options so I can learn what they're about.
Have a great trading day :)

Hi Sam,  glad to hear all that computer stuff is more or less fixed.

I've got an options question for ya, hope you can help.

Watching this $40 stock, GMR, well last night they announce earnings and rev's fall considerably, however they also announce that they have decided to borrow some money and pay shareholders a div of $15 later in March.  Not sure why they are doing all this ??

Anyway I'm thinking not much good buying the stock here, might go up a bit in order to get the $15, but if you hold for that div then as soon as it goes ex-div the stock will usually drop about $15, so net from here is about zero with some risk.  Now some say you could short it, but of course being short you would have to pay out the $15 to the guy you borrowed the stock from to short, again about net zero with risk.  So I'm thinking buy the $40 May puts, as the options aren't liable for dividends and a very good chance this one will be under $40 when it goes ex-div. then sell the puts for a profit.  (So I bought some May $40 put's today)

However after doing a little digging tonight, I find that in general terms I was correct.  But then the fine print about "special" divs, or div's over 10% of the share price.  Seems that the options clearing board can do some kind of adjustment, usually to the strike price.  Although they can also collect cash on settlement from the appropriate option side.  So in this case I believe the strikes will be adjusted lower by $15 on ex-div day and probably a notice will be posted on the CBOE under adjustments and my $40 puts will become $25 puts, not looking as good a deal now.

All in all I find this a bit confusing, have you been thru this stuff before and can you give it too me in layperson terms if possible?  The basic PR is shown below along with  the put call action today.  I'm not sure if the price variations on the options today are due to the 9% rise in the SP or due to anticipation of the strikes being changed.  And what will the impact be on the day when the strikes actually change or is that priced in now?

Anyway a very interesting situation for learning more about options, usually I only dabble in QQQQ options, pretty simple compared to this.

thanks in advance

Quasi


AP
General Maritime Rides the Wave
Thursday February 22, 12:18 pm ET
Shares of General Maritime Surge on Word of Special Dividend

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of General Maritime Corp., which owns and operates crude oil tankers, rose sharply on Thursday, a day after the company said it will pay a special cash dividend of $15 per share.

Shares of General Maritime raced up to a new 52-week high of $44.34, before sliding back to $43.56, up $3.85 or 9.7 percent, in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company said after Wednesday's market close that its fourth-quarter earnings tumbled to $22.4 million, or 71 cents per share. Revenue fell to $66.6 million from $156.4 million.

But the company also said it will pay a $15 dividend on or about March 23 to shareholders of record as of March 9.

Jordan Alliger, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, said he likes the idea of management creating shareholder value through the special dividend, but added that it could also signal a shift in the company's growth strategy.

"This large payout could also be indicative that the potential for large-sized acquisitions is for the moment a challenge to achieve, we would think due to what could be peak type asset values in the industry," Alliger said in a note to clients. He rates General Maritime at "Sell."

Phillippe Lanier, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, noted that General Maritime plans to finance the payout with debt, which would raise its interest expense and could reduce annual earnings by up to 20 percent, or 80 cents per share. He also warned that any run-up in the company's stock on Thursday could be short-lived.

"We would caution that there is a material risk that it could fall in value to, or below, $30/share once it goes ex-dividend later this month," Lanier said in a note to investors.

Lanier rates General Maritime "Neutral."

Hi Quasi,
I think you need a new plan ... and quickly. Your March options will expire Friday March 16th ... so they won't last until the dividend planned for "on or about" March 23rd.

You're spot on with what will happen after they pay out the dividend. The night before ... let's say the stock is at $40 ... you have the $40 put.... you'll go to bed and wake up the next day and the stock will be at $25 ... and voila ... you now own the $25 put (adj). Everyone will get adjusted down. I know what you were thinking ... I had the same idea when Microsoft was going to pay out the $3 dividend. D'Oh. I couldn't figure out why nobody else was taking advantage of the $3 handout ... in your case that would be a $15 handout... the market NEVER gives away free money. ;) hahahahahaha

So to answer your question "is it built in to the options" ... essentially ... yes. If they didn't do the adjusting thing, then your option would have cost you $15.70 instead of $.70 to buy that same put.

I think the "tendency" is for stocks to run up up into splits and dividends and such. Even though ... everyone knows that you really don't "get" anything out of either. So if you think the stock will run up ... then I think you're on the wrong side of the trade with your puts.

Now ... if the news settles a bit on the dividend front ... and people fixate on the bad earnings ... which I have to say ... are really bad. Like so bad are you sure the company is not going under? Then short term your puts might just work. But I wouldn't consider holding them for long at all. They're relatively close to expiration, you're holding the wrong month, and if you hang on too long, the time (Theta) will get eaten up. Also ... everything that's unknown is now known ... unless of course they announce dissolution or something drastic.

You need an exit strategy. Set a target, be that a dollar value on the stock or option ... or x increase/decrease in IV, theta or delta.... tomorrow by market close ... something.  If you hit whatever target you set. Good or bad ... you need to get out. You didn't give yourself much time to be right.

I see it got a nice pop today ... that's not good for you're puts ... but maybe there will be some profit taking tomorrow by people who are not interested in the dividend (cause you really get nothing... well except for a tax bill...) and you can catch a nice selloff.

Maybe someone who can better read the candlestick tea leaves, find support and resistance ... or have a better feel for what the stock is supposed to do from her to March 23rd. I'm not very good at that. For your sake, I hope it takes a major tumble tomorrow and you're able to just ....get out.

Good luck to you!!!!
-Sam

Quote from: Samantha Stephens on February 22, 2007, 10:05:38 PM
Hi Quasi,
I think you need a new plan ... and quickly. Your March options will expire Friday March 16th ... so they won't last until the dividend planned for "on or about" March 23rd.

Hi Sam

Thanks for your great input, this will be a great learning experience, I "applaud" you.  I always learn more when I get really interested in strange new things.

However its not as bad as you thought, the pay out is around March 23rd, for share holders of record on March 9th, so it will go ex-div on March 7th.  So in theory the March puts (expiry on the 16th) would be close but OK, if the big move happens as planned and you sell right away.  Now I considered all this and decided that the risk of time erosion was just too great, and if the ex-div date was pushed back just a couple of days you would be up the creek.  So I bought the May $40 puts for 90 cents after they had already tanked from the previous day at $2.90.

So all in all I still have some time to see how things go, will be watching closely.  I did anticipate a little pop in the stock price today but I don't expect it to really continue.  The puts did tank today but I bought mine close to the high of the day in the stock price so it was just after the puts had bottomed for the day.

Thanks for all you help.

Quasi

Hi Sam

I'm still holding those GMR puts, still in the money but it has been a rough week in the markets and I think we'll get a little bounce here before the next wave down.

Quote from: Quasi on February 22, 2007, 10:38:17 PMHowever its not as bad as you thought, the pay out is around March 23rd, for share holders of record on March 9th, so it will go ex-div on March 7th.  So in theory the March puts (expiry on the 16th) would be close but OK, if the big move happens as planned and you sell right away.  Now I considered all this and decided that the risk of time erosion was just too great, and if the ex-div date was pushed back just a couple of days you would be up the creek.  So I bought the May $40 puts for 90 cents after they had already tanked from the previous day at $2.90.

Well yes I was a little concerned the ex-div date could get moved back a little from the stated March 7 date, so I bought the May Puts.  Well yes indeed NYSE announced Friday that the ex-div date will now be March 26th.  And the Options Clearing Corp just published a bulletin on Fri that the option adjustment will take the form of down $15 in the strike price on March 26.  Very interesting stuff.

Now there are no options at $15 or below, but say there were they can't make a strike of $0 or negative, so I assume they would then opt for a $15 div to be included in the settlement of the option??  Or is there another method for adjustment?

On another subject, David on the 3SOF fast portfolio is starting to dabble in options for the portfolio.  Thus he has created a wave of interest from new investors wanting to get into options.   Since you are our resident expert on options it would be great if you could get involved.  But I guess those discussion should probably take place over on the options forums so we have a record thats easy to look up in the future.  Just thought I'd give you a heads up.

Yes I see David just opened a thread on understanding options for general learning discussions, link as follows.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9085.0;topicseen

thanks
Quasi

Excellent about the 3sof guys dabbling in options. And that's very sweet of you to say ... but I would have to defer to David & Ramsburg. Now... we're talking experts! Even if people don't buy/sell options ... I still think they're an incredible indicator. Like the magick lines, candles, pattern and trend analysis. I think they give some really nice insites into the consensus of the market. Well ... and then there's the incredible returns (oh ... and losses) that can be had if you pick the right option.

I've been keeping my eye on your stock/options. I was hoping you're give me an update. I have no clue how they'll handle the $15 options. But it does seem like they'll need to compensate the owner in some way. And I'm so glad you moved your options. I was trying to send you SELL vibes ... and not so subtle hints to get the heck out. hahahHAHAHAHAHA

Thanks for sending the link! Keep me posted on how your trade comes out!
-Samantha

Quote from: Samantha Stephens on March 04, 2007, 07:07:01 PM
Excellent about the 3sof guys dabbling in options. And that's very sweet of you to say ... but I would have to defer to David & Ramsburg. Now... we're talking experts!

Actually Samantha, David admitted to not trading options much.  I think where their expertise comes in is in knowing where a stock might be going, and thus what options to buy.  Currently its mainly puts that are being looked at given the  >:D,  >:D,   >:D market lately!

But all the other aspects of options volatility, etc. are areas where I am sure you could provide great input, even if you only cut and paste some of your former posts on the subject into that thread  :)

Quote from: Samantha Stephens on March 04, 2007, 07:07:01 PM
I've been keeping my eye on your stock/options. I was hoping you're give me an update. I have no clue how they'll handle the $15 options. But it does seem like they'll need to compensate the owner in some way. And I'm so glad you moved your options. I was trying to send you SELL vibes ... and not so subtle hints to get the heck out. hahahHAHAHAHAHA.......

Thanks Sam

You were right, but I didn't actually move my options, my original purchase was the May $40 puts for the specific reason that things could change without notice, and they did.  If I'm selling calls I tend to go short time, but buying puts I like to have a little more time.  So I still have a little time, although I have been second guessing myself that I should have just taken the bid at $1.70 a few days ago for an 88% profit, or like you said put in a high ask and see if I get picked off.  Some people got picked off at $2.05 a few days ago.

Markets are a little crazy right now and I think the underlying stock has risen due to the $15 dividend, not the underlying fundamentals of the company, people are looking for safe havens.  So I think I will try to let it ride thru the stock bounce I expect over the next week, then things should start to improve again.  House of cards is rather shaky right now I think, just have to wait for the next wave down.

thanks
Quasi

I'm so blond! The March $15 dividend must have been my shiny bright object that I couldn't get past... March ... May ... it all starts with an M. hahahHAHAHAH

You're right about having time. I hope I didn't freak you out. OK ... I'm back on your same page. I was a little lost there... sorry about that.  :)

This is going to be so interesting to watch...
-Sam