This one is just an alert. The trading range upside level is $0.90, the volume is increasing, giving a lot of momentum to this short term up move.
In case of breaking $0.90 ADST could fly up to higher levels, so this one must be on the watch list.
I've been watching ADST for a while now, and unfortunately I missed the rise due to my holidays.
But yesterday it printed a huge Doji.. what to think of this?
I think the chart is showing some paralel price channels.. is it in a new channel now? would it be good to buy now and hold it as long as it holds the channel? or should i give it room to fall back in the previous channel (since the chart still will be bullish then)
(http://www.wistudat.net/stock/adst.png)
ADST gapped up with an open at 1.65!! :o
after the closure of the gap I stepped in at 1.31, Expect the stock to climb up again (if we only get half way..we are getting a nice hammer ;) )
trading Volume is also way above avarage (500% already)
closed at 1,46. Not as high as i wanted it to close.. but stil
also very high on volume.. But i don't know the different candle patterns very well yet.. what to think of the one that printed today?
for a hammer the shaddow has to be twice as long as the body right?.. we could call this a hammer then.. but the black candle doesn't look to nice for me.. what to do with this baby? :)
i've updated the chart above.
I really don't know what to think of this picture.
The candle is almost completely out of the boilinger band, is this a sign for a reversal?
If you look at the intraday chart the stock ended strong up so one could think this will continue at the opening on monday.. what would be a good strategy in this case?.. what price would be a logical and good stop loss?
ADST broke out of a nice base and on pretty good volumn.....What I think is that a little profit taking has come into the picture. watch for volumn to increase, and if it doesnt, then expect stock to retest this breakout, establish a base somewhere between 1.20 and its current high....I would not chase this stock as it will correct, and close the gap that we just saw. Volumn of 1-2 million would be a good sign that this stock will continued its current move. However, the 200 dma and overhead resistance at $1.50 level will have to be tested yet.
Once we have cleared these temp barriers, then the next overhead resistance will be in the $2.50-3.00 level .......happy trading...........Bill the Bull
[email protected]
Quote from: gabillh on July 17, 2005, 07:32:33 AM
ADST broke out of a nice base and on pretty good volumn.....What I think is that a little profit taking has come into the picture. watch for volumn to increase, and if it doesnt, then expect stock to retest this breakout, establish a base somewhere between 1.20 and its current high....I would not chase this stock as it will correct, and close the gap that we just saw. Volumn of 1-2 million would be a good sign that this stock will continued its current move. However, the 200 dma and overhead resistance at $1.50 level will have to be tested yet.
Once we have cleared these temp barriers, then the next overhead resistance will be in the $2.50-3.00 level .......happy trading...........Bill the Bull [email protected]
thx for your reply.
The gap was filled imidiately and afterwards the stock went back up .. (that;s why i entered in the firstplace.. as i expected it to ris after the test of the gap)
ADST is pulling back to test the support of the ascending trend. With the MA50 crossing the MA200 right now this is a strong buy for me 8)
(http://www.wistudat.net/stock/adst-20-jul.PNG)
Nikao,
It looks like this one could take some patience ;)
After the Inverse H&S breakout, ADST got to the target pretty fast. The July 15 gap up to 1.65, the high of the day, was just above the target.
While it could go back up there for a re-test, it looks like it needs to do some consolidation (backing and filling) to put in a right shouder for another Inverse H&S breakout above 1.65. That would get it up to the target area that Bill The Bull mentioned. Applause to Bill The Bull.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 22, 2005, 06:39:06 AM
Nikao,
It looks like this one could take some patience ;)
After the Inverse H&S breakout, ADST got to the target pretty fast. The July 15 gap up to 1.65, the high of the day, was just above the target.
While it could go back up there for a re-test, it looks like it needs to do some consolidation (backing and filling) to put in a right shouder for another Inverse H&S breakout above 1.65. That would get it up to the target area that Bill The Bull mentioned. Applause to Bill The Bull.
thx for your opinion on this one..
I'll hold the stock as long as the support of the ascending price channel holds.. It's a great company operating in a growing market sector.. so fundamentaly i like this one as well..
ADST printed a Doji. After the white hammer of the day before I think we´re about to go up (fast) again.
There are a lot of people who got in at the range of 1,40 - 1,50 so these are all long people ;)
Quote from: nikao on July 23, 2005, 04:52:47 AM
ADST printed a Doji. After the white hammer of the day before I think we´re about to go up (fast) again.
Yeah, that's looking a little better, isn't it? IMOS violated its bull flag intraday, but opened and closed (higher) within the bull flag, so that's looking a little better, too. ;)
QuoteThere are a lot of people who got in at the range of 1,40 - 1,50 so these are all long people ;
Unfortunately, that's not a good thing, because they represent what's called "overhead supply," or resistance. Same thing. I'm going to start with the July 15 gap open at 1.65 to explain.
A gap that is a little higher than the prior day that continues higher into the close is a "gap and go," or breakaway gap, particularly if it's a pattern breakout. That kind of gap is a good buy.
A gap that is well above the prior day's close that also is the high of the day, or near the high of the day, often is referred to as "a gap to crap," or exhaustion gap. It gapped up, and crapped out (also known as "exhaustion.") It didn't have the strength to go any higher.
DECK did the same thing on Thursday morning. Gap up a few dollars...but, the open was the high of the day, then it tanked $4.50 before recovering later in the day. "Gap to crap," as least as far as that day's trading was concerned.
Quote from: nikao on July 15, 2005, 05:40:59 PM
closed at 1,46. Not as high as i wanted it to close.. but stil
also very high on volume.. But i don't know the different candle patterns very well yet.. what to think of the one that printed today?
It looks like a hangman.
Quotefor a hammer the shaddow has to be twice as long as the body right?
Right.
Quote.. we could call this a hammer then
Hammers only appear at a bottom "hammering out a bottom." Look at the hammer in February on your chart. It was preceded by a black candle, then followed by a white candle. That's a hammer "it hammered out a bottom," and it's part of a 3-day Bullish Morinng Star Pattern.. That's a very bullish pattern when follow-thru to the upside confirms it.
Quotebut the black candle doesn't look to nice for me..
You instincts were right. It wasn't nice because it looks like a hangman (even though the tail wasn't twice as long or more as the real body, which is the open and close). The effect was the same as that of a true hangman. It was followed by three days of selling.
Hammers appear only at bottoms. Hangmen appear only at tops.
It's called a hangman because anyone who bought the open (1.65) or the close (1.46) is left "hanging there" in that trade at a loss when the stock sells off, which it did for three days. At the low of 1.12 on July 21, anyone who bought the 1.65 open was "hung" with a 32% paper loss; anyone who bought the 1.46 close was "hung" with a 23% paper loss.
All of those people now represent "overhead supply," or resistance. Not all of them will sell, of course, but as price approaches the July 15 close of 1.46, many who have been sitting with a paper loss of as much as 23% or more, gladly will sell into the rally for a break even. "Whew, I got out of this thing without taking a loss."
Same psychology applies all the way up to the $1.65 high.
QuoteThere are a lot of people who got in at the range of 1,40 - 1,50 so these are all long people ;
Yes, and now you see what I mean. Some of them are long people who want to get out at a smaller loss (if they paid 1.65) or a break even (if they paid 1.40-1.50), or a small gain (if they paid less than 1.40).
That's why I said in my first post that this might take some patience, while those who want to sell get out of their postions. Up and down...backing and filling...consolidating for the next move higher, which hopefully it will do.
For the stock to rally straight back to 1.65 from here, I think it would take some news. Something exciting that would cause people who long at higher prices to want to hold the stock. Otherwise, I would expect rallies to met with some selling, especially low volume, unconvincing rallies that cause people to be impatient and sell. Not me, Nikao. I would never sell in that situation. You know how patient I am! ;)
Hope that clarifies the difference between a hammer and a hangman.
Here's my chart... looks like it has decent support, and I like the last few candles...
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 23, 2005, 12:52:48 PM
Quote from: nikao on July 23, 2005, 04:52:47 AM
ADST printed a Doji. After the white hammer of the day before I think we´re about to go up (fast) again.
Yeah, that's looking a little better, isn't it? IMOS violated its bull flag intraday, but opened and closed (higher) within the bull flag, so that's looking a little better, too. ;)
QuoteThere are a lot of people who got in at the range of 1,40 - 1,50 so these are all long people ;
Unfortunately, that's not a good thing, because they represent what's called "overhead supply," or resistance. Same thing. I'm going to start with the July 15 gap open at 1.65 to explain.
A gap that is a little higher than the prior day that continues higher into the close is a "gap and go," or breakaway gap, particularly if it's a pattern breakout. That kind of gap is a good buy.
A gap that is well above the prior day's close that also is the high of the day, or near the high of the day, often is referred to as "a gap to crap," or exhaustion gap. It gapped up, and crapped out (also known as "exhaustion.") It didn't have the strength to go any higher.
DECK did the same thing on Thursday morning. Gap up a few dollars...but, the open was the high of the day, then it tanked $4.50 before recovering later in the day. "Gap to crap," as least as far as that day's trading was concerned.
Quote from: nikao on July 15, 2005, 05:40:59 PM
closed at 1,46. Not as high as i wanted it to close.. but stil
also very high on volume.. But i don't know the different candle patterns very well yet.. what to think of the one that printed today?
It looks like a hangman.
Quotefor a hammer the shaddow has to be twice as long as the body right?
Right.
Quote.. we could call this a hammer then
Hammers only appear at a bottom "hammering out a bottom." Look at the hammer in February on your chart. It was preceded by a black candle, then followed by a white candle. That's a hammer "it hammered out a bottom," and it's part of a 3-day Bullish Morinng Star Pattern.. That's a very bullish pattern when follow-thru to the upside confirms it.
Quotebut the black candle doesn't look to nice for me..
You instincts were right. It wasn't nice because it looks like a hangman (even though the tail wasn't twice as long or more as the real body, which is the open and close). The effect was the same as that of a true hangman. It was followed by three days of selling.
Hammers appear only at bottoms. Hangmen appear only at tops.
It's called a hangman because anyone who bought the open (1.65) or the close (1.46) is left "hanging there" in that trade at a loss when the stock sells off, which it did for three days. At the low of 1.12 on July 21, anyone who bought the 1.65 open was "hung" with a 32% paper loss; anyone who bought the 1.46 close was "hung" with a 23% paper loss.
All of those people now represent "overhead supply," or resistance. Not all of them will sell, of course, but as price approaches the July 15 close of 1.46, many who have been sitting with a paper loss of as much as 23% or more, gladly will sell into the rally for a break even. "Whew, I got out of this thing without taking a loss."
Same psychology applies all the way up to the $1.65 high.
QuoteThere are a lot of people who got in at the range of 1,40 - 1,50 so these are all long people ;
Yes, and now you see what I mean. Some of them are long people who want to get out at a smaller loss (if they paid 1.65) or a break even (if they paid 1.40-1.50), or a small gain (if they paid less than 1.40).
That's why I said in my first post that this might take some patience, while those who want to sell get out of their postions. Up and down...backing and filling...consolidating for the next move higher, which hopefully it will do.
For the stock to rally straight back to 1.65 from here, I think it would take some news. Something exciting that would cause people who long at higher prices to want to hold the stock. Otherwise, I would expect rallies to met with some selling, especially low volume, unconvincing rallies that cause people to be impatient and sell. Not me, Nikao. I would never sell in that situation. You know how patient I am! ;)
Hope that clarifies the difference between a hammer and a hangman.
thx for the extensive reply and explanation.. It is very clear now what the difference is .. learned a lot on this stock.. hope to exit it with some profits..than it would be the perfect trade hehe.. but even if i have to excit with a loss it was a good trade, because i learned a lot.. and paying some learning money isnt bad.
Quote from: nikao on July 24, 2005, 06:41:56 AM
.. learned a lot on this stock.. hope to exit it with some profits..than it would be the perfect trade hehe..
I hope that you make lots of $$$ on this one, Nikao.
Quotebut even if i have to excit with a loss it was a good trade, because i learned a lot.. and paying some learning money isnt bad.
That's the spirit! I'm sure that anyone who has been at this long enough feels that they've paid for at least a doctoral degree with the mistakes that they've made. :D
I'm thinking that we could get a normal A-B-C correction of the rally to 1.65, form a right shoulder of a bigger Inverse H&S pattern, then breakout above 1.65 to something in the 2.50-3.00 range.
Leg A of the correction is a move down. We already had that, down to 1.12.
Leg B would be a rally back up into the overhead resistance (the green arrows on the chart below).
Leg C would be the final leg down of the correction (red arrows on the charrt below), to re-test the breakout, or to re-test that up trendline on Kuepper's log chart (Applause to Kuepper for using the log chart, and seeing that. I missed that one) depending on where those are if/when we get down there.
The chart would have a very nice look to it (Inverse H&S). If that scenario occurs, we can check out things like volume, to see if it was a low volume selloff, which it should be, etc.
If we rally into resistance early this week, then take out the July 21 low of 1.12, that's likely what we're looking at: an A-B-C correction of the rally.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 24, 2005, 08:13:27 AM
Quote from: nikao on July 24, 2005, 06:41:56 AM
.. learned a lot on this stock.. hope to exit it with some profits..than it would be the perfect trade hehe..
I hope that you make lots of $$$ on this one, Nikao.
Quotebut even if i have to excit with a loss it was a good trade, because i learned a lot.. and paying some learning money isnt bad.
That's the spirit! I'm sure that anyone who has been at this long enough feels that they've paid for at least a doctoral degree with the mistakes that they've made. :D
I'm thinking that we could get a normal A-B-C correction of the rally to 1.65, form a right shoulder of a bigger Inverse H&S pattern, then breakout above 1.65 to something in the 2.50-3.00 range.
Leg A of the correction is a move down. We already had that, down to 1.12.
Leg B would be a rally back up into the overhead resistance (the green arrows on the chart below).
Leg C would be the final leg down of the correction (red arrows on the charrt below), to re-test the breakout, or to re-test that up trendline on Kuepper's log chart (Applause to Kuepper for using the log chart, and seeing that. I missed that one) depending on where those are if/when we get down there.
The chart would have a very nice look to it (Inverse H&S). If that scenario occurs, we can check out things like volume, to see if it was a low volume selloff, which it should be, etc.
If we rally into resistance early this week, then take out the July 21 low of 1.12, that's likely what we're looking at: an A-B-C correction of the rally.
great analysis (again). thx!
I sure would be happy to see a correction like that. guess we´ll notice that soon enough
no volume whatsoever.. 1.700 shares sold/bought at this moment.
(open at 1.25 (+0.04) now 1.21 (0.00))
Since ADST was going down the dry up of volume is a positive thing i guess?
yesterday we went back up a little, but with very low volume. It has printed 3 nice (white) candles in a row, so I think it will go up some more today.
could someone enlighten me what to think of the volume behind the movement of ADST ?
Still holding the stock if it closes above the ascending trendline
Quote from: nikao on July 26, 2005, 02:11:55 AM
yesterday we went back up a little, but with very low volume. It has printed 3 nice (white) candles in a row, so I think it will go up some more today.
So far, it's following the A-B-C correction scenario that we discussed over the weekend. If so, we're in Leg B, which is a rally on low volume. then Leg C down probably will have a little more volume.
Quote could someone enlighten me what to think of the volume behind the movement of ADST ?
I'm no expert on volume (or anything else), but that's characteristic of a correction, even though we're in a little rally phase here. I wouldn't get too hung up on trying to interpret each day's volume. The important thing is that we'd like to see more volume on pattern breakouts, and lower volume during corrections.
hmm. the hard part for me will be the determination of the top of this rally.. (to get out at the right exit point)
do you think it will go to the 1,59 / 1.65 zone to form a double top and fall over?
Quotedo you think it will go to the 1,59 / 1.65 zone to form a double top and fall over?
Total guess on my part, of course, but that wouldn't be my guess, based on the fact that the July 15 open at 1.65 was the high of the day, then the stock reversed lower on the second heaviest trading volume of the year. It closed at 1.46 that day, and all of the buyers between the 1.46 close and the 1.65 open have been "hung" with a paper loss ever since (the Hanging Man-like candle). There are alot of very willing sellers (overhead supply...resistance) starting at that 1.46 close, particularly, who would like to get out with a break even.
Quote from: nikao on July 26, 2005, 05:21:46 AM
hmm. the hard part for me will be the determination of the top of this rally.. (to get out at the right exit point)
Fibonacci retracements often are helpful with that. I put them on the chart below. A 50% retracement of a rally or a selloff is considered to be fairly normal. Sometimes, you only get a 23.6% or a 38.2% retracement.
ADST almost is at the 38.2% retracement, which is 1.325. If it prints 1.33, it likely will go to the 50% retracement level, which 1.385. Resistance likely will start to become tougher there, because the stock is getting closer to the July 15 close of 1.46.
The 61.8% retracement level is 1.4475, and now the stock is right near that 1.46 close. I would peg that as very difficult resistance. Rule of thumb is that if a stock retraces more than 61.8% of a move, then it's got a better chance to continue in that direction, i.e., go back up to the 1.65 high.
My guess is that ADST won't get above, or much above, 1.4475 - 1.46 on this rally off Thursday's low of 1.12. Just a guess.
Quote
after a very weak volume start ADST went further up to close at 1,36 with a nice white candle.. good to see this stock back in the green for me ;)
the candle of today gives me good hope for tomorrow.. I will hold it to let my profits run and so i don't eat like a bird ;)
well .. looks like you're right Melf; after a high of 1,43 it pulled back to close below the close of the day before at 1.34
I really don't know what to do here, my rational side tells me to sell at the open and get back in somewhere around 1.20. But, as allways in these cases, Im a little bit afraid to sell. Always frightned that it will go right up and have it's real break out right after i sold out..
this is the chart;
Quote from: nikao on July 28, 2005, 01:59:49 AM
...after a high of 1,43 it pulled back to close below the close of the day before at 1.34
Yeah, I saw it stalling right at that difficult 1.4475 - 1.46 resistance, then fading. There's some supply there. So, far it's still following the A-B-C correction scenario. Green arrows on the chart are the "B" rally. Red arrows are a "C" down.
The validated trendline (purple line on chart) off the June low looks to be next important support. If ADST can hold it, or hold above, you could get your rally back to the top of the range. If that trandline gets broken, the odds increase that you'll get a corrective "C" down.
QuoteI really don't know what to do here, my rational side tells me to sell at the open and get back in somewhere around 1.20. But, as allways in these cases, Im a little bit afraid to sell. Always frightned that it will go right up and have it's real break out right after i sold out.
Decisions...decisions. If you sell, I would suggest that you don't get back in at 1.20. The purple up trendline on the chart below is a validated trendline that comes in today at about 1.23. At 1.20, you'd be getting back in on a break of trendline support, especially if it's a break on a closing basis, and you likely will be riding a "C" wave down.
thx again melf!
When I said 1,20 i meant the ascending support line.. so we agree uppon that point ;)
I'll try to sell at the opening around 1,41 (hope it will spike a little like yesterday) and then get back in around the support line.. (I really think it will go there.. just hoping it will also hold )
it still is an interesting stock to play (very much learned here ;) )
Another ugly hangman, I'm afraid of them now ;)
ADST didn't reach my selling target of 1.41 or else it would have been a good trading day. The range was 1,40 - 1,26 with the close on 1.32. So far it's stil not violating the ascending support lines, so it's still bullish and im still in.
it's still above the ascending support. I added a resistance in the chart as well since it looks like ADST is moving nicely in a price channel. Just waiting to bounce of the support (somewhere today or tomorrow) to break the resistance (1,50 - 1,54)
getting ready for a big spike (i hope/think it will be a spike up!)
Volume is really drying up, yesterdays volume was only 5611 ! that's only 8,67% of the 3m Avg Vol
It's still trading in the 30ties, (lo/op 1.33 hi/cl 1.35)
I'll have to be allert today to make sure I don't miss the movement ;)
hmm forgot to reply in this topic..
It seems that I was right that ADST was about to spike up :)
but unfortunately it didn't have enough power to take out resistance around 1,50-1,54
so I sold the day after the spike up at 1,45
If I look at the chart right now it seems I was right selling at that point.. as it is forming a Adam and Eve pattern right now...
will keep an eye on this one though...
Nikao,
Interesting to see how this devil played out. >:D
It completed the A-B-C correction while putting in the right shoulder of the big Inverse H&S pattern, as we discussed, and now has broken out. The sharper sloping up trendline (red) was violated, but the more important up trendline off the May low (green) held.
Too bad that it doesn't have more volume, or I'd be interested.
ADST on the move....
We are coming into the strongest season for online advertisers and this one has been in a undeniable uptrend since mid-April. I'll open a position today under 3, and add on any selloffs. Time Horizon is late December to sell.
I like the Chart. ;D
Target 2.18-2.40
"ADST" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$
I will leave you the chart while I'm in this thread......
strong volume coming back in for last two trading days,,bottom might have been found
Hi, wrangler
Technical analysis is great and everything that is important is discounted on the prices. It´s like having the whole story until today.
However, it is important for us to know what really is the story behind the prices and its possible consequences in the future, maybe not yet completely discounted on these prices.
In fact, ADST results are still very negative and the indecision that followed its publication on the 15th Nov, with a new downtrend later on may be happenning again. I don´t see any new facts and it can possibly be a kind of trap.
Unless this period of end of year - new year would be a time of optimism (as has happened often before). But I wonder about an adequate folow through. We´ll see!
By the way, a Happy New Year for you all!
swinger