3SOF

It's already 8:30 and I don't have time to fully explain this pick. I was impressed by the chart, made some quick fundamental tests and was :o.

Then I went to Yahoo to see if I could find valuable information (it's rare, but), well, I just wanted to see what's going on with the stock, over the short term.

Found an excellent thread (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=27180&tid=76749&mid=76749&tof=9&rt=2&frt=2&off=1) from a user, that completely explains GOAM's business and future prospects. Confirmed some of the facts and they're true.

GOAM is flying high, but it is a $14 M market cap company with promising fundamentals, not the crap people are pushing 200 or 300% in a day and then fall back to the prior level. GOAM won't ever be a big company (not with the current business model), but it will probably be a small cap with $100 M to $200 M market cap.

The plan is to buy GOAM below $6.30 or around the open, 6.66% of the portfolio, as always.

Averaged in at 5.85 after chasing a bit from 5.68 initial bid, but it looks like it wants to go higher, nice volume, thanks for the heads up David! :) 

Yeah baby, jumped in the shower and when I got out its gained 7%  ;D  Go go GOAM!

Quote from: tokyopua on November 29, 2006, 09:58:32 AM
Averaged in at 5.85 after chasing a bit from 5.68 initial bid, but it looks like it wants to go higher, nice volume, thanks for the heads up David! :)

You're welcome tokyopua :)

Now let's make a complete analysis on GOAM.

1. Introduction

GOAM popped on my technical filter as an attractive short term play. I made a few fundamental tests and it passed. Then I went to Yahoo and found a deep and comprehensive study on the stock. Confirmed some of the data. And I recommended the stock. Sometimes one has to act on less than complete information (I would say it always happens this way).

2. Profile

GoAmerica, Inc. (GOAM) provides various accessible communications services to people who are deaf, hard of hearing, and/or speech impaired primarily in the United States.(complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GOAM))

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29324;image)

Terliso suggested I should use a semi-log scale on the all history chart, but I like it more this way, because it shows the real prices traded on the stock (of course, there were reverse splits on GOAM, it has never been at $1,400 - but it has traded at $1,400/$6.17 = 227 times more than it is now - this in share price terms, but probably not in market cap terms)

3.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29325;image)

There can be huge run ups (and downs) on GOAM, because it is such a small cap. We'll get to that in a moment ... the medium term chart shows that a move up to $40 or $50 is entirely possible.

3.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29326;image)

The short term trend is very bullish, with 5 white candlesticks in a row. There will be red candles along the way, but there's no doubt GOAM is awake and pushing higher.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29328;image)

There's been a slight increase in the number of shares outstanding, but sill, just 2,338,451 shares. The current market cap is 2,338,451*$6.17 = $14.43 M

4.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29330;image)

The balance sheet is healthy, with the current ratio at 2.78 and $4.26 M in working capital. Also, $3.65 M in cash.

4.3. Revenues

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29327;image)

This revenue graph doesn't tell the real story, because it has continued and discontinued operations. But get this from the Q3 results:

«Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2006 increased by 93% to approximately $4.6 million, compared to total revenue in the previous quarter of approximately $2.4 million; and an increase of 259% compared to total revenue of approximately $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2005.»

4.4. Profits

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29329;image)

You almost can't see it on the chart, but that's a $4.08 EPS estimate for 2007. I made my projection based on this study (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=27180&tid=76749&mid=76750&tof=36&rt=2&frt=2&off=1).

I'm much more conservative than this zibeaster, I would say a 10 times earnings multiple would put GOAM trading at $40.80 in 2007. I don't believe in a 20 times multiple because everybody knows this company's market is limited, so it can't sustain an above average earnings multiple. That's for companies that have the possibility to grow at above average rates for the long term (at least, that's the expectation).

4.5. Recent News

Here's the company selling its unprofitable business:
GoAmerica Announces Sale of Prepaid Division (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061004/nyw169.html?.v=46)

And this is the impact (values in thousands):

«The sale closed on October 2, 2006 and the  Company  recognized  a gain on  sale  of $6. The  Company  received  total consideration  of $131 which  consisted of the purchase price of $75 and working capital  reimbursements  totaling  $56.  The Company was paid $20 at closing and $111  is  payable  under a  guaranteed  promissory  note  payable  in 5  monthly
installments beginning on October 31, 2006.

Total revenues related to the discontinued operations were $894 and $1,027 and $3,644 and $2,452 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005,  respectively.»

The revenue impact isn't big, since on Q3 the company had revenues of $4.551 M, with 77% coming from Relay services, the fastest growing component.

You need to read these quarterly results: GoAmerica(R) Reports Improved Q3 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061108/nyw168.html?.v=52)

You can see the fundamental change within the company, how fast it is growing and how close it is from profitability. I guess Q4 will already show a profit, say, of $0.20 a share.

5. General Overview

The key on GOAM is the extremely low market cap and number of shares outstanding. If they just make a small net income that will translate into a high EPS number. With the sale of its prepaid calling card division, Q4 results will shine.

But much more important than that is the outstanding revenue growth of their new business, coming from www.i711.com. The following was a very positive development:

«In June 2006, the Federal Communications  Commission certified the Company
as an Internet Protocol Relay and Video Relay Service Provider. As a result, the
Company  became  eligible  to  be  compensated   directly  from  the  Interstate
Telecommunications  Relay Services Fund for  reimbursement of their  i711.com(R)
minutes and began  recognizing  the full revenue from these minutes along with a
related cost of revenue for the costs  associated  with these minutes,  which is
provided  by  Nordia.  Previously,  the  Company  relied on Nordia to obtain the
reimbursement  amounts on the Company's behalf.  This previous practice resulted in the Company  recording  only a portion of the total  revenue from the service provided as the Company was not the primary obligor.»

Now the state is paying for all this. It's nice to sell a service that costs $0 for costumers, where someone else has to pay (and it always pays). From what I've read, these services have high prices, of $1 to $6 a minute for a phone call and a video call, respectively.

Of course, this company won't grow to be a big company, but it can and will probably grow from a $14 M market cap to a $140 M. That's all we need :)

6. Trading Plan

Buy and Hold GOAM.

Wow, so by that analysis you have, this is a potential 10 bagger  :o :o in the dream scenario, and a 5 bagger  :o by your conservative estimates.  To quote Borat:  "Niiiiice". :D

But this thread feels a bit lonely right now, kind of like when I was in TSM and it was just you and I corresponding about it almost a year ago, lol.

Are there any other fellow 3SOF members who bought this?  It appears to have the most potential of any pick in the portfolio at present based on the fundies, so there must be...

Quote from: tokyopua on November 30, 2006, 07:30:02 PM
Are there any other fellow 3SOF members who bought this?  It appears to have the most potential of any pick in the portfolio at present based on the fundies, so there must be...

Yes!  In at $5.59

invested @ 6.02 $  >:D

It's nice to have some company here :)

Since this looks like such an extraordinary pick, I shared it with some friends and my wife ... just because people here in Europe think the US doesn't have any social policies, but as I see it, you have better social services than us (well, at least than in Portugal, probably not as good as in Sweden, Norway or countries like that - of course, Southern Europe is much poorer than Northern Europe).

Anyway, a friend of mine (which is a wise stock investor), studied the stock and thought it was great, but he had two worries:

1) Technology. A computer possibly can do what GOAM makes, the relay service. I think that's true, it might be possible (and I guess there are some sites that already allow passing text to voice to a phone call).

I think this is a valid concern, but it will never be the same thing. Take translation services for example (my wife is a professional translator - but she works in an investment bank, nevermind). One could think that computers can make translations, so translation services companies would be out of business soon. Nothing is further away from the truth. Computers can't do it correctly, at least, not for now.

Also, that video relay service, that translates signs language into a voice phone call, can't be done by a computer, not now and not for years to come. And that is a $6 a minute service.

2) He told me the fact that the government is paying for the service is a weakness, not a strength. He says the government can shut the door on these companies, or reduce the price it pays for the phone calls.

I don't think so, because it would be politically indefensible. Once you give something to the handicapped community, you can't take it away, or the media and public will crush you. For example, the Portuguese Government (here I go again, but it's where I live, I don't think it is much different from there on this case) took away some tax benefits for handicapped persons who had an above average income, and they immediately dived in the polls, as the media and opposition jumped on the subject.

So, government won't take away this benefit. And if they lower the price they pay too much, companies will no longer provide the service and the outcome is the same on the political front.

These are peanuts for the federal government, probably they will never touch this. On the other hand, the fact that deaf and speech impaired people can make phone calls for free, will probably add to demand for the service (its already happening, at a very fast pace).

I've addressed these concerns but they are valid and probably there are more. But the opportunity is higher than the risk, and even my friend is trying to buy the stock (the cheaper he can get, of course ;))

Technically the stock made a pause yesterday, which I welcome. The trend remains bullish and I will continue holding GOAM.

I also bought GOAM @ $5.85/shr on Wed... very nice analysis, David!

At least superficially, the analysis looks okay.  I only question the revenue projections, for which there was no substantiation--just speculation.  I took a test position at 6.10 today.  Thanks for the head up; I hope it flies.

In @5.55.
From what I have observed in the past GOAM makes crazy moves.. eigther way  ;)

Quote from: Dory99 on December 01, 2006, 09:27:22 AM
I also bought GOAM @ $5.85/shr on Wed... very nice analysis, David!

Thanks Dory99, I believe you'll make money on this one, if you have the necessary patience.

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 01, 2006, 09:38:51 AM
At least superficially, the analysis looks okay. I only question the revenue projections, for which there was no substantiation--just speculation. I took a test position at 6.10 today. Thanks for the head up; I hope it flies.

Ok buddjas1, let's go deeper on the revenue study. This is the revenue history of the IP relay service alone:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29524;image)

You can see it is growing extremely fast. Effective growth in Q3 2006 from Q2 was 157%, but that was partially due to this:

««In June 2006, the Federal Communications  Commission certified the Company
as an Internet Protocol Relay and Video Relay Service Provider. As a result, the
Company  became  eligible  to  be  compensated   directly  from  the  Interstate
Telecommunications  Relay Services Fund for  reimbursement of their  i711.com(R)
minutes and began  recognizing  the full revenue from these minutes along with a
related cost of revenue for the costs  associated  with these minutes,  which is
provided  by  Nordia.  Previously,  the  Company  relied on Nordia to obtain the
reimbursement  amounts on the Company's behalf.  This previous practice resulted in the Company  recording  only a portion of the total  revenue from the service provided as the Company was not the primary obligor.»

Not considering this, the growth was 59%, quarter on quarter. The IP relay market has been growing 75% a year since 2002. Let's assume GOAM's IP relay services revenues will grow 20% a quarter going forward until Q4 2007, and we get:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29525;image)

So, the 2007 estimate for GOAM's IP relay revenue is $27 M.

But this isn't the best part of the story. GOAM already is a certified Video Relay Service (VRS) provider, but it didn't launch its service on www.i711.com yet. It will do that in December.

The VRS market is almost 3 times larger than the IP relay service (IPRS) market (VRS was $76 M in Q3, IPRS was $28 M), and VRS is growing 155% a year, compared with 75% for IPRS.

Of course, this growth rate won't go on indefinitely, but I'm sure it will be very high at least until 2010. So, GOAM is entering what I estimate to be a $608 M market in 2007. If it grabs just 10% of market share (entirely possible, since it has 12.5% market share on the IPRS), it will have $60 M more in revenues to add to the $27 M estimate for the IPRS. That would be an $87 M revenue estimate for 2007, and GOAM's current market cap is just $13.6 M.

Considering the short term, GOAM went down 8.6% on Friday. I believe this was because some very short term oriented traders entered the stock on Tuesday when it traded 1.7 million shares (float is just 1.9 million) and since it didn't jump right after, they're feeling disappointed and exiting the stock.

I think it would be very unwise to let this opportunity go because of short term volatility. I'll keep on holding GOAM whatever happens to the share price.

At 5.67 now GOAM has formed a reversal hammer candlestick.  Any close at or above 5.67 then forms the reversal day that AussieTrader has been talking about for entry in STEPS.  Of course, I would like to see it close closer to where it opened around 5.95, that would be very bullish as in addition to a hammer we will have a harami pattern.

Thanks for your analysis tokyopua :)

That trade at $5.93 at the open, when there was a $0.50 spread, damaged today's candle, but I'm not worried at all about candlesticks on GOAM.

I simply love this stock. Imagine that they launched the Video Relay Service market today (the one I've talked about on my previous update) and didn't make a press release announcing it. They could easily pump the stock 20 or 30% in one day with a rosy press release, talking about the market's size and expectations, but no, they kept it quite.

This means they're not requesting investors money. Value will come up by itself.

Anyway, check out their website (http://www.i711.com/) and the new service: http://www.i711.com/vrs/welcome.php

Now remember, if they get just 10% of the VRS market in 2007 (a $600 M market), that means $60 M in revenues for GOAM just from this service. Then remember the VRS costs $6.64 a minute, but the costumer doesn't pay it, the government does. And I don't think they will ever cut back on this subsidy, for political reasons. It's peanuts for the federal government, anyway.

But it's a big deal for a company like GOAM, with a market cap of $14 M.

I will hold GOAM for the long term.

What's up with the 363 share trade at 4.51 after hours?  Down a $1.15!  Someone trying to create a scare?  Ray

Quote from: dmdray69 on December 04, 2006, 08:34:59 PM
What's up with the 363 share trade at 4.51 after hours?  Down a $1.15!  Someone trying to create a scare?  Ray

Somebody sold those 363 shares at the market after hours and somebody got cheap shares. There's nothing to be read on a 363 share transaction. I hope you were not too concerned by this and still hold GOAM, because ...

We got the VRS press release !

• i711(R) Video Relay Service Debuts Offering Superior Picture Quality for Deaf PC Users (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061205/nytu101.html?.v=79)
PR Newswire (Tue 4:58pm)

GOAM now has 12% of market share on the IP Relay market (it had just 5% on Q1), and that service is paid at $1.293 a minute. GOAM's community can now use the yesterday launched VRS service, which is paid by the government at $6.644 per minute.

You can clearly see the astounding revenue growth that is about to happen here. I think GOAM's stock is technically and fundamentally ready to breakout above $7. It will happen before the end of the week ...

Looks like it wil do $7 in pre market :o


Correct that $7.50 lol

Nice call David (as usual)

I just sold at $6.87 and will let this cool a bit during the session. I'm buying back though and will add my profit of 4k back into my new position... thats my plan anyway! I couldn't help but lock in 22%+gain!

                                 best of luck to all..

                                          mitch

Also sold at 6.97 and looking to pick up again lower.

Must admit its not working the way I thought,

Holy smokes, we hit $8.00 for awhile there!  I was surprised the news didnt move the stock much yesterday in the aftermarket, but its absolutely rocking this morning.

David, obilgado!  And applaud!!!   :) :D ;D

Just sold mine at 7.76 after a 23% gain.  Hard to resist locking in some quick gains.

 This is a case of "shorts on fire!" at least it looks that way in part!  ;) we'll see.... I still think it was best to exit and let the dust settle some!

Damn it !!!

I was to write a message, "don't you even dare to take a profit" but I really had to go to lunch :P

You need to learn how to sit tight and let the profits run, GOAM is going much, much higher than current levels. I think it will be up at least 50% today.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 06, 2006, 10:10:55 AM
Damn it !!!

I was to write a message, "don't you even dare to take a profit" but I really had to go to lunch :P

You need to learn how to sit tight and let the profits run, GOAM is going much, much higher than current levels. I think it will be up at least 50% today.

Very much agreed David.  Volume has equaled the previous huge volume day from last tuesday in only 45 minutes, the buying pressure is on strong.  GOAM didnt peak until mid day last Tuesday, so there is still room to run, it could even hit $9 at this rate IMO.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 06, 2006, 10:10:55 AM
Damn it !!!

I was to write a message, "don't you even dare to take a profit" but I really had to go to lunch :P

You need to learn how to sit tight and let the profits run, GOAM is going much, much higher than current levels. I think it will be up at least 50% today.

David, your timing is perfect!  I just received my 3SOF yearly renewal email last night and then boom, this beauty pays for the next 5 years of 3SOF in 1 hour!  8)  I love it, keep up the fantastic work!

Quote from: tokyopua on December 06, 2006, 10:18:51 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on December 06, 2006, 10:10:55 AM
Damn it !!!

I was to write a message, "don't you even dare to take a profit" but I really had to go to lunch :P

You need to learn how to sit tight and let the profits run, GOAM is going much, much higher than current levels. I think it will be up at least 50% today.

Very much agreed David.  Volume has equaled the previous huge volume day from last tuesday in only 45 minutes, the buying pressure is on strong.  GOAM didnt peak until mid day last Tuesday, so there is still room to run, it could even hit $9 at this rate IMO.

A 30 minute chart shows the meaning of this volume much better! (Use the slider to see the right side of the chart).

Shoulda read earlier....I sold at $8.10 and picked up EGHT at $1.54

Nice blog link:
http://zibeaster.blogspot.com/

When I sold this in the morning, before reading the advice not to sell yet, I bought back in to EGHT at 1.54.  I'm wondering if would advise swapping back out of EGHT into GOAM even though it is higher then I sold or stay put in EGHT.  Any thoughts?

Quote from: das317 on December 06, 2006, 03:01:50 PM
When I sold this in the morning, before reading the advice not to sell yet, I bought back in to EGHT at 1.54.  I'm wondering if would advise swapping back out of EGHT into GOAM even though it is higher then I sold or stay put in EGHT.  Any thoughts?

If you can't have the two, my advice is for you to hold GOAM instead of EGHT. Buy strength, GOAM will probably be a $12 stock before the end of the month.

Ok, thanks for your input.

David, it took everything in me not to sell at 8.5 or so today.  I am going to give your "let the profits run" theory a try. 

I would actually like to see some consolidation here around 7.8 before another white candle.  However, I have a feeling that we could see another two or three up days before consolidation.  Upper Bollinger Band is suprisingly not that far behind, at 6.97.  All that volume today really helped.

QuoteDavid, your timing is perfect!  I just received my 3SOF yearly renewal email last night and then boom, this beauty pays for the next 5 years of 3SOF in 1 hour!  Cool  I love it, keep up the fantastic work!

Gee, thanks, I'm glad you made good money :)

But let's keep everything calm, because I can be dead wrong one day and I don't want you or anybody else to come here whining. Emotional control is crucial, so I never get happy when I win or sad when I lose. It's just business as usual ;)

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 06, 2006, 05:26:58 PM
David, it took everything in me not to sell at 8.5 or so today. I am going to give your "let the profits run" theory a try.

I would actually like to see some consolidation here around 7.8 before another white candle. However, I have a feeling that we could see another two or three up days before consolidation. Upper Bollinger Band is surprisingly not that far behind, at 6.97. All that volume today really helped.

I made the mistake of saying: «I think GOAM will close the day up at least 50%». I was reading the tape, but that's very, very hard to do. And it won't bring me any money over the long term, just food for thought. It's like playing a computer game, it can amuse me, but it won't make me rich.

buddjas1, if you want to give "let the profits run" a chance, you need to let go of that second sentence of yours. Don't think of candles, bollinger bands, volumes or anything else.

Think of fundamentals instead. Read this entire thread again. Given my revenue and EPS projections the company is worth at least $100 M, yet, despite today's rise, the current market cap is still just $19.2 M.

There was a lot of day trading on GOAM shares today, since the free float is just 1.9 million shares and volume was 5.6 million. I won't enter that game or I might lose my position. And then, where would I be?

I see $12 in 2006 and $40 or more in 2007. It will take its time, but no way I'm going away with a $2 a share profit.

Good luck :)

Quote from: David Randolph on December 05, 2006, 07:48:06 PM

GOAM now has 12% of market share on the IP Relay market (it had just 5% on Q1), and that service is paid at $1.293 a minute. GOAM's community can now use the yesterday launched VRS service, which is paid by the government at $6.644 per minute.

You can clearly see the astounding revenue growth that is about to happen here. I think GOAM's stock is technically and fundamentally ready to breakout above $7. It will happen before the end of the week ...

Well, this prediction came true and then some in less than 24 hours  ;)

Anyway, I wanted to again call attention to this phenomenal thing you wrote about above by making an analogy. 

It is as if you had a mining company that could get paid to give gold to deaf people and the price yesterday was $1.293.  But today they can give even more shiny gold to the customers and charge the government $6.644 for it!  Not every customer will immediately take the shinier gold, but if they do, the company's revenues can increase 514% just by the current customer base alone, not to mention that the shinier gold can attract more customers.

I have to admit that I thought this was a strange company to invest in at first, but the numbers tell a wonderful story!   ;D

I like the way you put it Tokyo :) It's exactly that.

Here's a link where you can check the information: http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/dro/trs.html

Highlights:

- «06/30/06
Telecommunications Relay Services and Speech-to-Speech Services for Individuals with Hearing and Speech Disabilities. Order freezing VRS 2005-2006 rate of $6.644 per minute for a one-year period ending June 30, 2007, or until such time as the Commission adopts a new VRS rate pursuant to new VRS cost recovery rules, whichever is sooner. Docket No. 03-123 (DA 06-1345)»

- «06/09/06
Notice of Certification of GoAmerica, Inc. as a Provider of Internet Protocol Relay (IP Relay) and Video Relay Service (VRS) Eligible for Compensation from the Interstate Telecommunications Relay Service (TRS) Fund. (DA 06-1244) (CG Docket No. 03-123)»

I expect revenue in full year 2006 to come in around $16 M to $17 M. For 2007 it is easy to predict it will be around 5 times more, or about $80 M to $90 M.

Also remember IPRS is growing 75% a year and VRS is growing 155% a year. Here's more about what VRS is: http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/consumerfacts/videorelay.html

I see GOAM with revenues of $80 M to $90 M and EPS of at least $4 in 2007. Do you think I care about today's 8% fall? Not at all.

I was wrong to make intraday or short term calls on GOAM, of course the market beats me or anybody else who plays that game long enough. Two days ago I wrote I expected GOAM to close the week above $7. It's Thursday and it closed at $7.18.

I'm not selling this stock whatever happens to the share price. Not at $7, $6 or $5. And not at $8, $9 or $10. Fundamentals give me this confidence and I believe there's no other way to play the game successfully over the long term.

Besides, the market agrees with me, the stock is trading near a 52 week high.

I liked yesterdays consolidation and the fact that volume is saying perhaps the day/swing traders are begining to look elsewhere. I'm back in on a morning dip under 7.... at least thats my hope  >:D These people/company are set for real! I want to own more than the customary 6.6% so I'm selling eght and putting it all here as suggested on another thread.

                   


                            m

Managed to get some at $7.05

Quote from: anvilring on December 08, 2006, 08:54:17 AM
I liked yesterdays consolidation and the fact that volume is saying perhaps the day/swing traders are beginning to look elsewhere. I'm back in on a morning dip under 7.... at least thats my hope  >:D These people/company are set for real! I want to own more than the customary 6.6% so I'm selling eght and putting it all here as suggested on another thread.

The low of the day was $7.01, were you able to get back in anvilring? I hope so :)

Anyway, I think you were trying to get in at the price you sold for a profit, so you don't lose any part of the movement, am I right?

QuoteI just sold at $6.87 and will let this cool a bit during the session. I'm buying back though and will add my profit of 4k back into my new position... thats my plan anyway! I couldn't help but lock in 22%+gain!

                                 best of luck to all..

                                          mitch

You need to consider the market doesn't care what price you sold, so, to be in tune with the market, you should forget about your selling price too. If you feel, from what you read in this thread and your own thoughts, that GOAM is going higher, much higher, going forward, you need to buy it, nevermind the price.

Or you risk watching it rise without you on board because you were too concerned about saving a few ticks. The ability to buy higher after you sold is very important to long term successful trading. Good luck :)

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 08, 2006, 10:32:04 AM
Managed to get some at $7.05

Nice catch 422fwhp, I'm glad you're in GOAM.

These guys at GOAM are really excited about what they're doing, and those are the benefits of holding shares of a small and objective company. They don't have many things to worry about, just one or two business segments, so they stay focused. Look at the new service just released on their website:

New i711 Call Me (http://www.i711.com/callme/)

It was interesting to see that volume on Friday (a positive day) was a bit higher than on Thursday (a negative session). This tells me the bulls are in control of the short term situation. I see GOAM pushing higher than the $8.74 short term high this week and there's no doubt I'll continue holding it.

WOOT!!!  +20%

Do we have a target here?

Quote from: David Randolph on December 10, 2006, 06:05:31 PM


It was interesting to see that volume on Friday (a positive day) was a bit higher than on Thursday (a negative session). This tells me the bulls are in control of the short term situation. I see GOAM pushing higher than the $8.74 short term high this week and there's no doubt I'll continue holding it.

Bulls back in control!!

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 11, 2006, 03:07:34 PM
WOOT!!!  +20%

Do we have a target here?

No, no target. Just letting the profits run, as my fundamental analysis says the company is worth much more than the current $22.2 M market cap. I think it will be worth at least $100 M in 2007, given the revenue and EPS projections I got.

QuoteBulls back in control!!

Yes, nice white marubozu :) I guess when I say "this week" it means "tomorrow" :D

I have a 53% profit on GOAM and there's nothing else in my mind but to keep on holding it:

(it took me half an hour to find this quote, but I think it's worth it)

«The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you you hope that every day will be the last day - and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope - to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out - too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.»

I hope my GOAM profit gets even larger, so I'll continue holding it.

David,

Profits might grow even larger today, as shorts keep getting slammed by more news...
Press Release   Source: GoAmerica, Inc.

GoAmerica(R) Introduces New 'i711 Call Me'(TM) Service
Tuesday December 12, 6:00 am ET
New Service Enables Hearing Callers to Easily Reach Deaf Friends, Family, Co- Workers, and Clients via Personal Toll-Free Number

HACKENSACK, N.J., Dec. 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GoAmerica, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOAM - News) today announced that it has expanded access to its i711.com(TM) Internet protocol (IP) telecommunications relay service (TRS) by enabling a hearing person to contact a deaf or hard-of-hearing person through a personal toll-free number.

ADVERTISEMENT
i711.com users simply sign up for a personal toll-free i711 Call Me(TM) number and give that number to hearing people. A hearing person can then dial the toll-free number and the deaf person will receive the spoken part of the call in text on their computer or wireless handheld device, conveyed through an i711® relay operator. If the deaf person is unavailable, he or she instead receives a text message with the date and time of the call, the phone number of the caller, and any message left by the caller. Online computer users can call the hearing person back in just one click, using i711's exclusive One-Click Call Back(TM) link included in the message.

"i711 Call Me is a fast, easy way for a hearing person to call a deaf or hard of hearing person and to have a live conversation through relay," said Mark Stern, vice president of product management for GoAmerica. "If the deaf person is unavailable, they receive the text equivalent of a 'voice mail,' including all the pertinent call details and any message left by the hearing caller. These features give i711 users constant but controllable communications access wherever they go."

"Now, hearing people can call me when they need to reach me," said Anatoliy Fegin of Forest Hills, NY. "Before I had an i711 Call Me number, I'd have to call my mechanic through relay several times a day just to check on the status of my car. Now, my mechanic just dials my 800 number, and I get his call on my Sidekick. i711 Call Me makes me more accessible than ever."

Toll Free Calls and One-Click Call Back(TM)

i711 Call Me includes tools for managing how and when calls come in, and what message is delivered to hearing callers. i711 Call Me includes all of the following:

     Personal Toll-Free Number. Personal toll-free number to give out to
     friends and family, as well as colleagues, school nurses, soccer coaches,
     mechanics -- anyone who may have a need to contact the i711 user. Each
     i711 Call Me number is assigned to only one person, enabling the user to
     publish that number on business cards or otherwise.

     TextMail with Caller ID. When the i711 Call Me user is unavailable to
     take a call, hearing callers simply leave a message which is immediately
     emailed to the user. These messages contain the Caller ID details --
     including date and time of the call and the phone number -- as well as
     any message left by the hearing caller.

     One-Click Call Back(TM). Online computer users who receive an i711 Call
     Me message can click on the One-Click Call Back link included in that
     message and instantly call the hearing person back.  One-Click Call Back
     initiates the call by passing the phone number of the caller to the relay
     operator, freeing the deaf consumer from having to remember, copy, or
     paste the number.

     Personal Announcement. When a deaf person is unavailable, the operator
     reads the deaf person's "personal announcement" to the hearing caller.
     This enables the deaf person to let callers know when they're on
     vacation, out of the office for the day and when they'll be back, or to
     simply let callers know to leave a message. This announcement can be
     changed as often as necessary, and customized by the i711.com user.

    Service Availability

i711 Call Me is available now. To receive a live call, the deaf user must have AOL Instant Messenger installed on his or her computer or wireless device. TextMail Messages can be sent to any email address.

Registered i711.com users can set up their own i711.com Call Me number when they sign into i711.com and click on the "My i711" tab. The set up takes minutes, and once set up, the i711 Call Me number can be used immediately.

Registration is required to use i711 Call Me, but registration is fast and free at www.i711.com/register.

The i711 Call Me number and all calls placed through the number are free and enjoy the same privacy protection as all other relay calls.

For more information, visit www.i711.com/callme.

About i711.com Relay Services

i711.com offers both text- and video-based TRS calling via the Internet. Text services, often called "IP relay," enable deaf or hard of hearing callers to use a Web-connected computer or wireless handheld device to place calls, which are connected to a relay operator. The relay operator calls the voice number and then verbally speaks the text message typed by the deaf caller to the hearing recipient and types the hearing party's responses back to the deaf party.

Alternately, a hearing person can contact a deaf person through i711.com by dialing the deaf person's i711 Call Me number toll free. The call handling is identical to other forms of text relay, except that the hearing person initiates the call to the deaf person using any voice telephone.

Using i711 VRS, a deaf caller begins a call by communicating directly with a sign language interpreter over a live video connection; the interpreter places the call on the deaf person's behalf, and translates the sign language into audible speech for the hearing person, and back into sign language for the deaf caller. This real-time call enables a deaf person to have phone conversations with hearing friends, family and colleagues more naturally using sign language.

TRS is a free service to all callers. TRS providers -- such as GoAmerica -- receive reimbursement from a pool of funds, collected from telephone carriers by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and administered by the National Exchange Carriers Association (NECA), based on the number of "conversational" minutes handled by each provider.

Thanks elliemae :)

I posted that news two days earlier, as I check their website everyday ;)

QuoteThese guys at GOAM are really excited about what they're doing, and those are the benefits of holding shares of a small and objective company. They don't have many things to worry about, just one or two business segments, so they stay focused. Look at the new service just released on their website:

New i711 Call Me (http://www.i711.com/callme/)

Nice pick David.

Quote from: stocky on December 12, 2006, 03:50:25 PM
Nice pick David.

Thanks stocky, nice to see you :)

Indeed, GOAM is a nice pick, but of course, it won't go up everyday, no stock does.  Although it looks easy to sell high to buy on reactions, I assure you it is very hard and the most probable outcome of doing that is that one loses his position, hence losing a big swing, maybe of a magnitude of 400 or 500% :o

In the end, a short term trader looks at what he made, and says: "great, I made 50% trading this stock. Yet, the stock is up 400% since I first bought it, what a shame".

At least that's my expectation, given the technicals and the fundamentals.  Always remember that GOAM is still just a $21 M market cap company, so another $9 on the share price is worth just $21 M, and that's easy to justify by the current fundamentals.

I'll keep on holding GOAM.

David,

How you doing? Just read the entire thread on GOAM...excellent analysis on the fundamentals...applauds to you mate, and thanks for that suggestion you made on buying GOAM and "fuggabaouid" until early 2007 - easier said than done though. I'll definitely look intoit.

For a company that has such a small float, I agree it ain't a good idea to time the trade...just get in, trust the fundamentals and hold on.

One thing I've begun to take notice of in trading is the crucial "10 EMA"...it's a pretty potent moving average and comes to great significance on short term moves...for example, a stock breaks out of a trend..and we all know it typically pulls back for a day or two...before going higher...however, we never know how much it pulls back...and that's where I've noticed the 10 EMA to be of great help.

I've also looked at GOAM's chart and the 10 EMA stands out as a short term support level, especially when the stock makes some major breakouts. (when the 10 EMA doesnt hold, the 20 EMA is major support level, and it works really well on timing entries and exits).

I'll look to get into GOAM near the 10 EMA (I know your suggestion is to not try and time GOAM)...but will not necessarily wait for it to reach there. As they say, I dont wanna lose dollars while tryin to save some pennies.  ;)

Here's a chart on GOAM (forgive me for putting it on DIVX thread) and how the 10 and 20 EMA come into the picture.

I do remember David's suggestion on VPHM [The Kind I want] when it was pushing and pulling and in the end those guys made real good money whom resisted quick IN and OUT. I wish I was one of them. Hope that I have learned my lessons.

Hi vic666, I saw you short term trading DIVX, and the stock is beating you (as it would beat anybody that tries to make a lot of short term trades in it).

My advice continues to be, buy and hold GOAM for some months. But I wish you good luck :)

QuoteI do remember David's suggestion on VPHM [The Kind I want] when it was pushing and pulling and in the end those guys made real good money whom resisted quick IN and OUT. I wish I was one of them. Hope that I have learned my lessons.

Memory is very important stocky. You need to remember your mistakes to learn from them. You're on the right track ;)

About GOAM I suggest that you go to the stock's Yahoo board and read zibeaster's comments. He's making a tremendous research effort on GOAM, and I have little doubts that he's right.

I know a good analyst when I see one. And zibeaster is good. Just don't consider too much of his short term comments, or you may lose your position. In fact, he may also lose his position if he focus too much on the short term.

GOAM corrected for two days on lower volume. I expect another white marubozu to take the stock to new highs anytime soon, perhaps still in the current week. It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, I'm not planning to sell GOAM over the next 3 to 6 months.

...trying to run...just need a bit more volume

Bravo David. Indeed a nice pick ;)

Quite puzzling end. May be David can explain. :(

My concern is all of the bag holders that are left over when this runs up like today and leaves a 20% gain on the table.  Must be some pretty unhappy people in that 20% space!

Here's how I see GOAM. Momentum traders love it because it's moving up, but they can't make a dime trading it. Bagholders like me show a 56% profit.

In the end, short term traders made 10 or 20 trades in GOAM trying to catch all swings. They possibly made 20 or 30%, or perhaps even 50% profits (most of them will lose money, especially if they also short the stock). Bagholders like me will make at least 300%, with much less effort and commission costs.

Today's candle on GOAM reminds me yesterday's RAD candle. Look here:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30244;image)

Yet, instead of down like momentum traders would expect, the stock was up strongly today. This is quite a bullish behavior, I remember stocks acting like this on the 1999 early 2000 raging bull. They were so high that people took profits/went short on the last hour of the session. But the next day stocks would open higher and push to new highs.

This way, stocks rise a lot, but the fast money only grabs a small piece of the moves.

You can say "GOAM closed 16% off the intraday high" or you can say "GOAM closed up 7% on the day and 7.13% above the opening price".

I see these corrections as necessary on the way up. They don't surprise me in anyway, I expect them to happen. I may know the stock will go down 10% in two hours or so and that won't make me sell to try to grab it lower. Because that could make me lose my position and the certainty of a big killing.

I'll continue holding GOAM.

I am seeing that David has now a moving influence on stocks. Not necessarily bad if you are on board. Time to renew my subscription.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 14, 2006, 06:51:48 PM


Today's candle on GOAM reminds me yesterday's RAD candle. Look here:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30244;image)

This was a nice example of how a strong upper shadow can be bullish, thanks for pointing it out David.  This is one of the few areas where I take issue with many candlestick technicians who always seem to view the long upper shadow as bearish.  Especially when it comes with volume in the way it did today for BFLY, I think there are cases where it represents a "minimal potential" for the stock, i.e. the stock can soon go at least that high again, and probably higher. 

So I could be wrong, but it feels like a guarnatee that GOAM and BFLY will soon reach at least the highs they hit today.  Steve Nison always says you have to view candles within the context of how the overall chart looks, and that is why I feel the way I do for these two stocks in particular.

Quote from: tokyopua on December 14, 2006, 08:12:46 PM
This was a nice example of how a strong upper shadow can be bullish, thanks for pointing it out David.  This is one of the few areas where I take issue with many candlestick technicians who always seem to view the long upper shadow as bearish. 

tokyopua, glad you point that out...from what I've read, the candlestick with the long upper shadow is counted as bearish "only if and when it comes after a long uptrending move", unlike the ones that you point out, which happened right after or pretty close to after a breakout.

of course, in the next few days, the market will tell us what is right, and we shall listen and learn.  ;)

Thanks for your comments vic666 and Tokyopua :)

Look how GOAM is 4.8% higher on the pre-market (as we predicted), it just kills short term momentum players.

(anyway, I shouldn't make intraday comments myself, they can only lead to confusion and anxiety. Going to study some other stocks)

For outstanding fundamental analysis of GOAM, please read zibeaster's blog:

zibeaster's Stock Blog (http://zibeaster.blogspot.com/)

All his predictions are very conservative, except the way he multiplies his quarterly EPS numbers by four (four quarters) and then by an earnings multiple of 20 to reach a price per share (PPS) estimate.

I guess he shouldn't be so conservative on IPRS and VRS revenue growth estimates (he's cutting fair estimates in half) and should use an earnings multiple of ten to fifteen times instead. PPS estimates would be about the same.

Anyway, he sees GOAM at $38.69 in Q1 2007, and what can I do, I agree with him. If you carefully read all the analysis, open all the links (especially this investor's presentation (http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001144204-06-007840&Type=HTML)) you clearly see that this is almost a sure thing. He nailed it.

Technically the stock was up again, nevermind the candlestick. It can be a $11 - $12 stock next week, but it doesn't matter, because my business with GOAM is to sit tight with it on my lap.

David, thanks for sharing zibeaster's blog link...it's a fascinating analysis for sure! i'm beginning to think may be i should heed your earlier advice to grow my accnt....buy GOAM and forget about it till Q1 2007.

but again...nothing's a sure thing in the market....especially tryin to hold thru' earnings...when all that matters is the "market perception"...not the facts presented by the company.

from the numbers in that link, it sure seems like a bargain even at these levels...allow me to think about it.  :)

but then again, look at XING...it's pretty undervalued fundamentally...and it's been that way for a while...shouldn't we assume the market knows something in case of "severely undervalued" stocks? just wondering out loud!  :-\

another thing I just noticed (after going thru' the slide show)...there's a table with a list of "relay providers"...and it has in it names like AT&T, Sprint, MCI and others...who seem to be providing either the same or even other additional services like GOAM...so where does competition fit into the pictures, against those big players?

QuoteDavid, thanks for sharing zibeaster's blog link...it's a fascinating analysis for sure! i'm beginning to think may be i should heed your earlier advice to grow my accnt....buy GOAM and forget about it till Q1 2007.

Yes vic666, you should do that. The stock is already 14% higher than when I told you (and 66% higher than when I bought), but there's still plenty of upside.

Quotebut again...nothings a sure thing in the market....especially tryin to hold thru' earnings...when all that matters is the "market perception"...not the facts presented by the company.

Earnings won't be out until February 2007, you don't need to worry about that.

Quotebut then again, look at XING...it's pretty undervalued fundamentally...and it's been that way for a while...shouldn't we assume the market knows something in case of "severely undervalued" stocks? just wondering out loud! :-\

Completely different situations. XING is a Chinese company that depends on strong economic growth to keep up with expectations. Economic growth (or the lack of) has no influence on GOAM's prospects and there weren't any expectations built into the stock price, because there are zero Wall Street analysts covering the stock. XING is a $300 M market cap company, GOAM is just $22 M. But both companies are undervalued and they're both heading higher if you consider the long term trend. Undervalued stocks don't go up everyday, not even every week or every month.

Quoteanother thing I just noticed (after going thru' the slide show)...there's a table with a list of "relay providers"...and it has in it names like AT&T, Sprint, MCI and others...who seem to be providing either the same or even other additional services like GOAM...so where does competition fit into the pictures, against those big players?

Well, IP Relay and Video Relays services are just peanuts for those big companies, so they haven't invested to improve their service. GOAM's service works much better, and that explains why GOAM's market share of the IP relay service has gone up from 5% in Q1 2006, to 12.5% in Q3 2006.

GOAM is totally focused on the deaf/hard hearing/mute/speech impaired community, the big players have bigger fish to fry.

As for the size of the market, on page 1 of this thread, you find this:

QuoteThe VRS market is almost 3 times larger than the IP relay service (IPRS) market (VRS was $76 M in Q3, IPRS was $28 M), and VRS is growing 155% a year, compared with 75% for IPRS.

Of course, this growth rate won't go on indefinitely, but I'm sure it will be very high at least until 2010. So, GOAM is entering what I estimate to be a $608 M market in 2007. If it grabs just 10% of market share (entirely possible, since it has 12.5% market share on the IPRS), it will have $60 M more in revenues to add to the $27 M estimate for the IPRS. That would be an $87 M revenue estimate for 2007, and GOAM's current market cap is just $13.6 M.

There's nothing better to do in this market than to buy and hold GOAM.

But of course, there will be ups and downs, I'm not sure you're prepared to follow my advice. Once one enters the gamble of short term trading (nobody knows it is a gamble while playing it) it is very hard to get out. As you said in one of your posts, one needs confidence in his method to win, and you won't win just following my advice, you need to understand and trust the method.

Or else you would have to be new to the markets and know that you don't know anything, which clearly isn't the case.

I'll just do my job and you'll do yours, so I say: There's nothing better to do in this market than to buy and hold GOAM.

Good luck :)

David,

Thanks for that nice response. Based on my knowledge of TA and charts, both the daily and weekly charts point to a pullback (overbought conditions).

I will watch for an entry at or near the 10 EMA. If I miss the opportunity, I'll look back and evaluate why, but my plan remains buying at or near the 10 EMA, with a close watch of the technical indicators/oscillators.

thanks again for that reply.  :)

PS: I've added a daily and a weekly chart for reference.

Strong Getting Stronger Near Year End

Ken Kam of Marketocracy whom I greatly respect puts that in words:

"Stocks that did well during the year tend to get stronger because no one who is sitting on a big short-term gain is anxious to sell in December. By waiting until January to sell, the owners of this year's best performing stocks push their capital gains tax liability into next year. Barring significant news, the reduced level of selling gives the best performing stocks of the year some added strength -- until January."

Based on this GOAM may continue doing well at year end.

You know I didn't buy GOAM for a quick trade. I'm a long term investor. But as I read this thread again, I saw that my analysis only goes a few months into the future. I want to look further into the future now.

The first thing I want to consider, always, is the potential size of the market. I guess most people avoid GOAM because they think the potential market is too small. But let's leave common sense and actually study the numbers.

For IP Relay Service I have this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30484;image)

I see there will be about 10 million minutes a month of IP Relay calls in Q4. This means the total IP relay market size is about 30,000,000*$1.27 = $38.1 M a quarter. It has been growing at a rate of 74% a year since 2002. But I expect this growth rate to slow, as the Video Relay Service seems to make much more sense and is getting more traction. Say it will slow to an average growth rate of 20%. It will be a $79 M a quarter market in 2010, or a $316 M annual market.

GOAM had 12.5% of this market in Q3, growing from 5% in Q1. I see its market share rising to at least 20%, because the company is totally focused on this, as others have bigger fish to fry, as we've been discussing.

So, 20% of a $316 M market is $63.2 M in revenues for GOAM in 2010, coming from the IP Relay Service. But much more important is the recently released Video Relay Service. Let's study that market:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30485;image)

The Video Relay Service will be something like a 12,000,000 minutes*$6.64 per minute = $79.68 M market in Q4 2006. It is growing at an annual rate of 155%. Let's assume this growth will slow to 50% a year, from 2006 to 2010. Then it will be a $403 M market a quarter, that is, about $1.6 B market in one year.

GOAM has 12.5% of the IP relay service, growing from 5% in just two quarters. GOAM's VR service seems to be much more specialized, as you can see here (http://www.i711.com/vrs/comparison.php).

I believe GOAM's long term share of the VRS market will be at least 20%. In 2010 this means $320 M in revenues.

So, joining both, the IPRS and the VRS, we get a 2010 revenue estimate for GOAM of $383 M.

We don't know about profit margins yet, but we'll soon find out. By the way, I expect GOAM to be profitable right here, right now in the 4th quarter, but I don't care much about that. Since we don't know about profits, I'll assume GOAM will have an average sales multiple of 1. Let's be prudent and also add 10% dilution a year. If these estimates are correct, the share price at the end of 2010 would be:

(($383 M)/($23.33 M*(1.10^4))*$9.48 = $106.3

This implies an annual growth rate of:

$9.48*(X^4) = $106.3 <=> X^4 = 11.213 <=> X = 83%.

This is very attractive, and safe, as it doesn't depend on economic growth, it only depends on the company gaining more and more market share, and I certainly expect that. The number can be bigger than this, much bigger, but I think this is a fair estimate.

Do I worry about yesterday's 2.7% fall? Not at all, longer term fundamentals always prevail, and I can't afford to miss a huge and reliable (as reliable can be in the stock market) profit just because I fear I'll lose my paper profits.

Instead of fear, I hope. I hope my profits grow larger. And when I'm losing, instead of hoping, I fear. This way I let the profits run and cut the losses short.

I'll keep on holding GOAM, not in a hurry to take profits.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 19, 2006, 06:43:59 AM
You know I didn't buy GOAM for a quick trade. I'm a long term investor. But as I read this thread again, I saw that my analysis only goes a few months into the future. I want to look further into the future now.

David, I thought that SOF was based on a quick trade strategy instead of sitting on a stock and wait as a long term investor. Being a long term investor have the problem of losing good quick and technical opportunities such as breakouts (I became in love with breakouts since Panoramix, remember  ;))

I'm saying this, because at long term I'm pessimist on the American market, by the follow reasons:

1- Weak housing data and possible implosion of the market due to the end of the speculation bubble.

2- Peak Oil: getting closer and closer, we are going to have a global crisis due to the Oil shortage and increasing prices.

3- Weak dollar and weak commerce balance, the dollar is not a "global coin" as it was at the past.

So, my opinion is that this rallie wont last much. (pitty, because I prefer to enter long instead of short).

Thanks for your post Dracull :)

I disagree on your general market assessment, as you can read on this article that I wrote about a week ago: I'm a bull ! (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8026.msg80117#msg80117)

But, the beauty of GOAM is that all this general market talk has nothing to do with it, deaf/ hard hearing/speech impaired people won't call more or less because of economic conditions, because, after all, they don't even pay for the service, it's free !

I agree with David. The focus should be on the long term, that is where the most profit is made. All of the short term traders, I know are up and down. Sometimes they have great runs, but are almost always follwed by a "bad streak" Long term brings wealth. Short term brings headaches.

Keep up the good work

Quote from: eggman11 on December 19, 2006, 09:39:33 AM
I agree with David. The focus should be on the long term, that is where the most profit is made. All of the short term traders, I know are up and down. Sometimes they have great runs, but are almost always follwed by a "bad streak" Long term brings wealth. Short term brings headaches.

Keep up the good work

I can speak from experience about the problems with short term trading.... and I probably will on the butcher block.

Short term trading calls for more discipline than trading with a longer time frame in mind. That's why I believe short term trading is a headache...coz' most traders (and people in general), prefer the excitement of trading over the disciplined cold-hearted approach needed to consistentlyl rake in profits. I too can speak out of experience.

But the issue with a longer term strategy is this:  If I had a larger capital, having learned my lessons thus far, I'd most definitely switch to a slightly longer term strategy with 3 - 5 stocks holding at any one time...but not having had the capital (and when I had it, I blew it with short term trading)...I'm continuing the short term strategy, against my own liking really!!

I am trying to build capital but short term trading makes my portfolio look worse than a game of yo-yo.

Basonista...you wanna talk about this sometime? i'll send u a PM perhaps.

Certain times in MKT lend themselves to Buy & Hold swing trades like past 3year run...

This mkt which is topping imo.... is best to buy QID SH and other short ETF instruments on bounces. 

Guys,

I have a virus............it's called fingeritis (the inability to stop buying  stocks when there are available funds in your account).  Because I sold MAMA, I had to get GOAM!!  What's my problem guys???  Can this be fixed???   >:D

Although, GOAM is actually doing pretty well riding the momentum from T3ML.  It doesn't look like it's quite done yet hence my reason for taking a position.  Good luck all!

Thai

I have a friend that is a doctor, this is what he sent me...

Actually, fingeritis is only a symptom of the larger affliction known as hypercovetosis (HCT).  Fingeritis is most often observed in patients with computer stock trading platforms.  Fingeritis can also occur with telephones.  It is NOT viral but is a mental condition triggered when studying charts.  It is well documented that patients studying stock charts that exhibit increasing trends are subject to an immediate (and sometimes urgent) display of HCT.  It is associated with intense bouts of a dream-like state in which the "Jones Effect" becomes prevalent.  The patient is consumed with visions of boats, cars, yachts, exotic vacations, etc....  These extreme yearnings yield to a tendency to outspend anyone in the immediate vicinity, hence, the association with the "Jones Effect".  Once affected, the patient with HCT is virtually incurable.  However, HCT can be controlled given proper therapy, association with stock services, and messaging boards.  Essentially, treatment is a form of group therapy.

Note:  Extreme bouts of depression are common during periods of poor stock performance.    This subset of HCT may lead to "Pink HCT" and is most often manifested by placing large sums of borrowed money into speculative ventures in which the patient envisions increasing wealth by thousands of times.  Invariably, Pink HCT results in capital collapse, withdrawal from society, and drug use/homelessness.

holy cow!!! never knew such a condition officially existed and has a term assigned to it.

we as traders should be very wary about such conditions and try and receive help from professionals whenever we feel on the verge of mania/depression

thanks for sharing that JKN!  :)

I appreciate your comments on short term/long term strategies. More than appreciate, I'm thrilled :). We could be here for days and days discussing the matter ... and that would be many pages of this GOAM thread.

We need to create a thread on short term vs long term on the Members Board.

Or else we'll keep it here or on any other threads, because it seems easier to discuss in some specific stock context. I don't think you're on the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium service to hear just kind words, you're here to make/learn how to make money trading stocks. So, I apologize if sometimes I can be a bit harsh when talking about trading strategies. You see, my mind is filled with trading bruises, if you know what I mean. Trading has made me suffer more than anything else in life. So I can't go easy on it ... it's too much serious to me ! You're not talking to an old man who just practices buy and hold (just look at my photo, do you see the young gambling instinct?), I spent 5 years of my life making thousands of day trades, in and out, in and out, experiencing every day trading/short term strategy available outthere. I read dozens of books on the subject. Once I had a Porsche, a second house and an amazing lifestyle, all coming from day trading ... three months later I had nothing. Then I got "rich" again, and again I lost it all day trading ... it was a roller coaster ride.

My point is: you can make all the money you need to satisfy your short term pleasures, but if it isn't made the right way (and there aren't many right ways), you'll lose it all back to the markets.

Now I'll address your comments:

- I believe eggman1 and basonista are on the right track;
- vic666 is where I was some years ago in trading terms. I recognize myself in his words. He's fighting and trying, and that's always a good thing. I wish he'll overcome this phase and start trading right again. Perhaps you (vic666) should pause for some time, just study the markets and get another income source. Trading for a living, especially when it's done with little capital, is very stressful (and impossible to sustain on a long term basis, unfortunately);
- rpccpa is looking for a top in this market. I believe looking for tops and bottoms is a futile exercise, the big money is in the middle of trends. I think we're in a bull market. I will short/buy bear market financial instruments when we're in a bear market. But for now we're in a bull market.
- thai626 is a strong believer in technical analysis and momentum trading. That's fine by me;
- I think JKN made a nice joke with thai626 ...
- vic666 is so consumed with short term trading he didn't get it was a joke ;D

And what about GOAM?

Well, after this I don't know if I have much to say about it, you guys are messing with this thread, and I say thank you :)

I would like to know the cost GOAM is having to supply the VRS service. They contracted a company (I don't have the name here), I went to see that company's website but there wasn't any pricing tables. I also want to make some short term estimates for Q4 2006 results. I think that can be interesting for someone expecting to hold the stock for just a couple of months more.

I guess that goes for tomorrow's update, after all, we have time, GOAM is here to stay :)

BTW, great call David, my applause !! (after the one hour requisite since the SYX applause)

In at 5.63, holding according to the plan...

Merry Christmas to you and your family from Vicksburg, MS, USA.

I sold my GOAM shares today.  And, thank you David for your last minute recommendation that boosted my IRA by almost 70%. 

The following document that I located today really made me wonder whether GOAM's business plan is a viable plan (for profit anyway). 

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-06-1345A1.pdf

From what I gather from the document, the FCC sets the reimbursement rate each year based on the industry participants' costs divided by the number of minutes provided.  See II.A.   IP Relay reimbursement actually decreased 5 cents from 2005 to 2006.  Para. 9.  The FCC includes only an additional "1.4 percent rate of return for an allowance for working capital" and only for IP relay.  Para. 27. 

What troubles me is that the more market share that GOAM acquires, the less profitable the endeavor becomes.  In other words, as GOAM's minutes and costs become a larger percentage of the reimbursement formula, the less GOAM can profit from the service.  The reimbursement rate will eventually equal GOAM's cost of providing the service, if GOAM's market share approaches 100%. 

Quote from: JKN on December 20, 2006, 10:53:50 AM
BTW, great call David, my applause !! (after the one hour requisite since the SYX applause)

In at 5.63, holding according to the plan...

Merry Christmas to you and your family from Vicksburg, MS, USA.

Thanks a lot JKN, Merry Christmas to you and your family from Ericeira, Portugal :)

Ok, today we have a chance to deal with GOAM. But before that, just one more little issue on the "short term vs long term" controversy, all right?

Let's take GOAM as an example. You may think "the stock made its move, ok, it may go somewhat higher from here over the medium/long term, but what do I care, I already have a 60 - 70% profit, why should I wait, shouldn't I just look for another short term powerful horse to ride?"

I think simple mathematics answers this question. From now on, each time GOAM rises $5.85, that means I have doubled my initial investment. If/when the stock trades at $11.70 I'll have a paper profit of 100%. But at $17.55 I'll have 200%. And at $23.4 I would have 300%. At $29.25 I would have 400% ... and on, and on. Of course, this is basic. For the person that buys at $11.70, at $17.55, instead of another double, it will have just a 50% profit. For the one buying at $17.55, when/if the stock goes to $23.4, instead of another double as in my case, he'll be making just 33%. And the guy that buys at $23.4, even when the stock trades at $29.25 (which means another double for me) will only be 25% ahead on his money.

All this sounds so basic, but underneath I think there's the little secret that makes longer term strategies beat short term trading by far. While short term traders keep on fighting for those highly unpredictable and small percentage profits, the long term trader, with the same moves on the stock, is making a lot more money. After a big rise, the same $5 will mean another 100% for the long term trader and just 25% for the short term trader.

I think the man that took this idea beyond everybody else is also the most successful investor ever, Warren Buffet. I believe this is why he focuses so much on long term capital appreciation, because of this compounding effect.

But, and this is a big but, which stocks are set to appreciate several bags going forward, so we can take advantage of this compounding effect? It's hard to know, but one thing is certain, one needs to study the fundamentals of the company and its sector. Just technical analysis won't be enough.

Since we're on GOAM's thread, let me try to explain in a very simple way why I think GOAM will offer this golden possibility of compounding profits:

1) The company has a market cap of $23.63 M;
2) Its total market, given by the FCC Telecommunications Relay Fund size in 2007 will be about $550 M;
3) The company's services are better than those from the competition. GOAM's market share of the IP Relay service went up from 5% in Q1 to 12.5% in Q3. GOAM's VRS seems to work much better than those from the competition, as you can read here: http://www.i711.com/vrs/comparison.php
4) If the company is able to get a market share of 20% in 2007 (as I think it will, possibly more), total 2007 revenues will be about $110 M. Apply a revenue multiple of 1 and get a $44.7 price per share, next year. But, what if they get just 10% of market share? Well, then we're looking at a $55 M market cap, and a price per share of $22.34. Even in this worst case scenario (since they already had 12.5% of the IPRS market in Q3), I'll make 4 times my money.

I expect these scenarios to take time to unfold, because the market is skeptic and wants to see the actual numbers (and we haven't discussed profits yet, I don't think we have a base for that at this point), but I can't trade this sure thing for some irrational short term investment out there.

I'm not that young anymore, that is, I need to be what I always wanted to be, a speculator, not a gambler.

I read the report of the meetings minutes that buddjas posted I have to make this quick, I have somewhere I got to be.  While it says the total amount funded is 1.4% above TOTAL costs. That is based on everybodys total estimated costs so if GOAM has a 30% profit margin, they still get the same rate $1.22/$6.64. They don't care what each individual company's costs they add it altogether. If one company has a 30% percent margin and another has a 5% margin they still get the same $1.22/$6.64 rate.

Please excuse my rambling and the numbers I used are just used to show GOAM can make huge profits., I don't have time to research right now

"While it says the total amount funded is 1.4% above TOTAL costs. That is based on everybodys total estimated costs so if GOAM has a 30% profit margin, they still get the same rate $1.22/$6.64. They don't care what each individual company's costs they add it altogether. If one company has a 30% percent margin and another has a 5% margin they still get the same $1.22/$6.64 rate."

I think you are missing my point.  The lower GOAM's costs are in year 1, the lower the numerator is in year 2 for the reimbursement rate (because GOAM's costs make up a percentage of the total industry costs).  GOAM's success in year 1 hurts GOAM in year 2.  GOAM's profit margin will continue to decrease as the reimbursement rate is recalculated year to year.

Don't get me wrong, GOAM should be able to pull a profit from the current reimbursement rate, until that rate is recalculated.  Successive years, though, I question. 

Buddjas1, you're not letting me sleep man. I already wrote three answers to your concern ... but, they don't convince me ???

So, FCC has a cake to distribute between 8 operators. That cake's size equals the total cost of those 8 operators plus 1.4% for short term working capital purposes. So the industry's profit is $0.

I remember my microeconomics classes about ten years ago that said that in perfect competitive markets, over the long term all industries profits are zero. Because if an industry has positive returns, that will attract more players to it until the combined profit margin is zero. And if the industry has negative returns, more and more companies will shut its doors or leave the industry, until the few players left have a net profit margin of 0% again.

So buddjas1 concern applies to all industries that have a positive return. It is a very long term concern.

But on GOAM's case, the future seems much closer. Buddjas1 is seeing beyond the next two or three quarters and sees $0 profits. How much is worth a company with, say, $100 M in revenues and $0 profits? Certainly not zero, because it still pays it's production costs, taxes and many other things. For society, it is a valuable company. But for shareholders ... nah, it's not worth it !

I still see GOAM making nice EPS numbers in the next one to three quarters (being a new player, with a very fast growing market share, it will benefit from a market inefficiency, but valuation is build upon long term prospects. How can you value a company at 10 or 15 times earnings if you know that one or two years from now probably earnings will be something like zero?)

Buddjas1 analysis is overwhelming. My long term bullish case on GOAM was destroyed. I have a 63.54% paper profit. I'll take it tomorrow.

Will keep on searching for some other attractive long term plays.

The trading plan for GOAM is to SELL it between $9.2 and $10.

For what it is worth, Anytime the government supports/pays for anything that is for the medically or physically challenged person, they will always re-evaluate pay structure each fiscal year at the state level and usually every 3-4 years at the federal level.  I am a Physical Therapist that was self employed for 14 years and when re-imbursement rates change, (whether it is Medicare or Medicaid) the providers (hospitals, labs, doctors, therapist, clinics, etc..) always make a profit in the end.  You just learn how to play the game more efficiently.  For the last 3 years, I have worked for a homecare agency called Amedisy(AMED) that provides nursing and therapy services, and even though Medicare (primary payment source) has cut payment in 1/2 (yes I said in 1/2) since the passing of the balance budget act in 1997,  Amedisys has grown from 50 homecare agencies to 251 homecare agencies in 18 states and Rev/profits have grown exponentially to currently support a $714 Million market cap with a PE of 20.  So this debate is not what it seems when you scratch the surface.  I believe GOAM has a bright future, but I can also understand taking a 63% profit also.  Good Luck to everyone!

David,

I just wanted to chime in here, and ask you to have another look at the document that buddjas posted and also re-read the thread and everything you said about buying and holding. I really don't believe that this issue changes anything about the situation with GOAM.  The main issue here is to look at the market they are in and the other market players.  As you mentioned previously, most of the other players are the big telcos, like AT&T etc.  Is it not likely that they would have a substantially larger cost structure than a small, focused company like GOAM?  The point being that the large telcos have to provide the service as part of their overall service provision - they do not want to be seen as not providing a needed service to people with hearing disabilities.  Hence, they accept that they must provide this service for around break-even, or at a slight loss.  GOAM is a small, opportunistic company, that specializes in this marketplace, and sees that it can add value to the service, and presumably do it cheaper than the big boys.  They wouldn't be doing it otherwise.  They will never take the whole pie, but as you mentioned several times in this thread, even a relatively small piece of the pie represents significant revenues (and revenue growth) for this small compay.

And while it is true that if GOAM grows its rate of IPR and VRS users substantiually, its costs to provide the service will have an increasing weight, but it is unlikely they will grow their proportion of the market beyond 20-30% in the medium term, so provided their total costs are less than their competition, they are making money.  Finally, note in the document, that NECA's accepted prices were actually several percentage points above the projected costs projected for each service, to allow for marketing and other expenses - it appears that the providers do have some leeway to work with them.

This paragraph suggests that some operators do have vastly different costs associated with the service (although it also notes that this was accommodated for in their calculation):

QuoteFirst, with respect to the indirect costs, NECA determined that one provider's indirect expenses were, on a relative basis, significantly higher than those of the other providers.65  As NECA explains, for each provider (and for each service) NECA compared the total indirect expenses to the sum of the provider's CA and relay operator expenses.66  NECA determined that for traditional TRS, the ratio of one provider's indirect expenses to CA and relay operator expenses was approximately 60 percent, but that the weighted average of the same ratio for the other providers was approximately 6 percent.67  Because the one provider had an indirect expense ratio that was more than ten times the weighed average of the other providers, NECA applied the weighted average ratio (6.09 percent in 2006 and 6.35 percent in 2007) to the outlier's indirect expenses and reduced them accordingly.68  NECA made a similar adjustment to the indirect costs of this provider for STS and IP Relay.69

Finally, just a brief note on the technical picture.  I've been riding a few rippers lately, and what always amazes me is that even though they are going crazy, when I look at the 30 or 60 min chart, all it is doing is following a nice ascending trendline (just have a look at MAMA for another example).  Exactly the same thing here.  With the excemption of the sideways movement early in the move, there is clear trendline support, which GOAM has tagged several times and closed right on today.  If it breaks down tomorrow, then yes, my technical picture is gone too, but I would ask you to seriously consider if you want to lose your position, which has been well thought out, with an excellent entry because of what you percieve as a potential long term threat to overall profitability if and when they are as big and as inefficient as the big boys.  The medium term doesn't have to be 3-5 years - it can be 3-6 months to!!!

ST

Quote from: David Randolph on December 20, 2006, 05:43:30 PM
Ok, today we have a chance to deal with GOAM. But before that, just one more little issue on the "short term vs long term" controversy, all right?

Let's take GOAM as an example. You may think "the stock made its move, ok, it may go somewhat higher from here over the medium/long term, but what do I care, I already have a 60 - 70% profit, why should I wait, shouldn't I just look for another short term powerful horse to ride?"

I think simple mathematics answers this question. From now on, each time GOAM rises $5.85, that means I have doubled my initial investment. If/when the stock trades at $11.70 I'll have a paper profit of 100%. But at $17.55 I'll have 200%. And at $23.4 I would have 300%. At $29.25 I would have 400% ... and on, and on. Of course, this is basic. For the person that buys at $11.70, at $17.55, instead of another double, it will have just a 50% profit. For the one buying at $17.55, when/if the stock goes to $23.4, instead of another double as in my case, he'll be making just 33%. And the guy that buys at $23.4, even when the stock trades at $29.25 (which means another double for me) will only be 25% ahead on his money.

All this sounds so basic, but underneath I think there's the little secret that makes longer term strategies beat short term trading by far. While short term traders keep on fighting for those highly unpredictable and small percentage profits, the long term trader, with the same moves on the stock, is making a lot more money. After a big rise, the same $5 will mean another 100% for the long term trader and just 25% for the short term trader.

I think the man that took this idea beyond everybody else is also the most successful investor ever, Warren Buffet. I believe this is why he focuses so much on long term capital appreciation, because of this compounding effect.

But, and this is a big but, which stocks are set to appreciate several bags going forward, so we can take advantage of this compounding effect? It's hard to know, but one thing is certain, one needs to study the fundamentals of the company and its sector. Just technical analysis won't be enough.

I'm not that young anymore, that is, I need to be what I always wanted to be, a speculator, not a gambler.

Hi David,

Nice post but I have one comment about this.  I think that if there is any chance to take a hefty profit when a stock hits my target especially if it's about to hit a resistance area, I would take that opportunity to secure my profit.  The way I see it is that there will usually be a pullback where you can reenter the stock.  That's just my take on it.

The case you presented above is well put together but it's from a percentage standpoint.  If you make it from a dollar standpoint, you'll find that you'll make even more money assuming you buy on a pullback and buy the same number of shares.  Anyways.....it's been fun learning from 3sof for the past year.

Thai

I don't know if this will affect the current trading plan but this was posted on the other GOAM thread.

Quote
I see the FCC released some ruling regarding internet telephone calls

http://www.captionedtelephone.com/fcc-ipcaptel.phtml

New ruling enables captioning over the Internet during telephone conversations

Posted: December 20, 2006

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) today announced its approval of Internet-based caption telephone technology for compensation from the Interstate Telecommunications Relay Services (TRS) Fund. The ruling was issued in response to a petition by the Hearing Loss Association of America (HLAA) and 35 other consumer organizations on behalf of people nationwide with hearing loss. Today's decision paves the way for people who have difficulty hearing over the phone to receive written captions of their conversations, via the Internet.

In announcing the ruling, the commissioners praised IP-based captioned telephone technology as a "giant step forward" for people with hearing loss, noting the potential to improve employment, social, and economic opportunities for people who are hard of hearing. Several commissioners praised the transparent nature of the technology as meeting the goal of providing functionally equivalent telecommunications access.

"Today's announcement from the FCC makes broadband connectivity even more valuable to people with hearing loss, as it gives them access to the telephone system in ways never before possible," explains Robert M. Engelke, President of Ultratec and developer of Captioned Telephone technology. "We applaud the efforts of HLAA and the other consumer groups around the country who have worked tirelessly to make this vision a reality."

The first offering will be in the form of consumer trials with a select pool of testers, beginning in early 2007. More details will be available at this site early in the new year.

Does anybody know what their gross margin is?. They are holding their stockholders meeting tomorrow at 10am in Hackensack, NJ. Can anybody attend?

On the Yahoo thread Ziebeaster has the IP Relay listed as 33% gross margin.

Here is post concerning the two issues that were brought up this evening. Can anybody confirm the bit about the FCC using the MARS method, because that could be huge.

From the yahoo board written by(Zibeaster)

There are two issues shorts are over it right now.

1) IP Captel. This is a technology update and is not a threat to GOAM's business. traditional captel phone has been in use and reimbursed by TRS since Jan. From the data from NECA, the minutes usage stays flat or down since April. the ip captel does removes the equipment restriction, but it is after all, a technology that can only be used by service providers, which GOAM is. if this technology shows good future, GOAM is certainly going to acquire it and provide it. It is not a substitution for IP Relay (deaf can not use IP Captel) or VRS relay (almost exclusively used by deaf)

2) Some has claimed in the end, since IPRS and VRS rate is currently determined by the cost estimate of all providers. As GOAM gets more market share, its cost advantage will disappear because its cost figures more prominently in the rate calculation, such drag down the rate.

My answer to this is, If a defense contractor can make huge profit, GoAM can do the same. Besides, FCC is considering a new rate calculation method calld MARS. which is basically use the current rate by state contractors. I believe this is a very likely outcome. which will solve many problems of the current method.

Again, just look at how much government contractors make, you will get a idea why GOAM is not going to be short changed.

Hi eggman1, you can find gross margin for the Relay service on the latest 10-Q:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30646;image)

(please scroll to the right)

Yes, GOAM's gross margin for the IP relay service is 33%.

I agree with zibeaster on the IP Captel.

QuoteMy answer to this is, If a defense contractor can make huge profit, GoAM can do the same. Besides, FCC is considering a new rate calculation method called MARS. which is basically use the current rate by state contractors. I believe this is a very likely outcome. which will solve many problems of the current method.

It can, but this trade isn't a sure thing anymore, and the upside potential was greatly diminished in my opinion. My initial view was that if the company was cost efficient, it would naturally show a profit. But the rules say there can be no profits in the industry, as the rate of payment is attached to the industry's total costs.

Yes, rules can change, but that's just speculation. There's no certainty. Also, the growth rates for the market are, after all, irrelevant, because the price per minute paid goes down if the total costs for providing the service go up. As for the defense contractor example, I think they're a different issue, because they're paid by federal taxes and not by an FCC Fund which comes directly out of the telecom providers. And there aren't any rules saying they can't make a profit, or that they will be paid at a cost reimbursement basis.

I think GOAM can still be a nice holding for some time, as we all expect positive EPS numbers for the next two or three quarters, at least. But that might be priced in already. And I fear dilution, with all this volume and the management knowing it won't be able to show consistent profits over the long term ...

The conclusion is: I don't think GOAM is a good long term business for shareholders, therefore I'll take my 60% plus profit and move on. It doesn't have to do with short term/long term strategies, no doubt I continue to believe in long term investing (my selling reasoning is precisely built upon long term perspectives), but that needs to be done exactly on the right stocks, and GOAM doesn't look like the right stock to hold for the long term.

Good luck to everybody that will continue holding :)

Thats equivalent to downgrading GOAM to SELL from STRONG BUY by 3SoF.

Anyway, I agree with your analysis.

Quote from: stocky on December 21, 2006, 07:51:29 AM
Thats equivalent to downgrading GOAM to SELL from STRONG BUY by 3SoF.

Anyway, I agree with your analysis.

Yes, we covered all the aspects on the revenue side, but we were missing another part, a rather important one, profits !

But I wouldn't call this recommendation a strong sell. I don't think GOAM will come back down to $4 anymore (unless there's massive dilution), but I also don't see it running to $20 next year, because people will always have this concern of zero medium/long term profits.

Perhaps GOAM will do, say, $2 M a year in profits, I guess the FCC could live with that (or better, the telecom providers wouldn't care much), but if GOAM makes $5 M or $10 M a year in profits, people will start complaining that they were supposed to give money for the deaf community, not to ensure a company's fat profits. And GOAM is a publicly traded company, their profits would be splashed everywhere.

So, my conclusion is, GOAM has value, but with the current business model and rules, its long term value has a cap at say, $20 to $30 M? Since the market cap is within this range now, I think it is fairly valued, so I need to sell it.

But, of course I can be wrong, good luck to all that will continue holding !

Good call David.......I didn't have many shares anyway of GOAM.  I sold today.

awesome call, applaud David  ;)

Quote from: la-onda on December 21, 2006, 11:16:13 AM
awesome call, applaud David  ;)

I second that.  ;)   Ver-ry nice, David!  Applause

All in favor say I:

I!

As a new member I am very pleased so far with 3SOF.  Thanks to David's hard work, I am back in the green. ;D

I'd applaud if I could.

Cheers, Derek

Too bad we couldn't always hit on these massive double digit growths but I am alsways happy to get out on a green. lol

3SOF has given me many of these and I applaud a great year and looking forward to many more great returns and many more lessons to be learned. Great and awesome work there! Maybe I can afford that vacation to the Azores now...thanks!

Very nice trade in and out  David,   applaud !!!!

Have a Merry Xmas for all your family

jorgegr

Thanks for the kind words thai626, la-onda, Melf Elf, dnickers, lancefur and jorgegr  :)

The thing I'm most proud of on this trade was the ability to change my mind when someone gave me what I perceived to be stronger arguments than mine. I'm not here to win ego battles. I'm here to learn and make money.

I already took so much beating from financial markets that I firmly believe I don't have an ego anymore. I appreciate a man that says "you're wrong, and here's why ...". I'm willing to listen to what that man has to say.

Most people can't do this, they're more interested in being right than learning the game/making money. With their minds closed like this, they can't learn. If they can't learn they can't be better traders. And only the best will survive and prosper.

This post ends GOAM's thread on this board. The thread will be moved to the Previous 3 SOF picks. It will surely be missed, thank you all for this outstanding debate :)

Quote from: David Randolph on December 21, 2006, 07:09:10 PM

The thing I'm most proud of on this trade was the ability to change my mind when someone gave me what I perceived to be stronger arguments than mine. I'm not here to win ego battles. I'm here to learn and make money.

Most people can't do this, they're more interested in being right than learning the game/making money. With their minds closed like this, they can't learn. If they can't learn they can't be better traders. And only the best will survive and prosper.

very well said David...applauds for the way you traded and for being flexible in your opinions to what others had to say.

you sure sound like a seasoned pro in those words of yours. good luck man!

Congrats on a great trade and merry xmas to you and yours David! :)

I echo those sentiments above David,  and I apologise for second-guessing your decision.  Looks like it was the right one, and the technicals confirmed that too.  I hope you don't think any worse of me for it.

As always good trading and happy christmas!!

Buddjas1, I am applauding you for being the one to point out the chink in GOAM's armor and helping David with the analysis.  I am guilty of often just looking at the chart and not digging deeper, but you did your homework!  And in the process I think you taught us all something, thanks.  :)

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 20, 2006, 05:19:18 PM
I sold my GOAM shares today.  And, thank you David for your last minute recommendation that boosted my IRA by almost 70%. 

The following document that I located today really made me wonder whether GOAM's business plan is a viable plan (for profit anyway). 

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-06-1345A1.pdf

From what I gather from the document, the FCC sets the reimbursement rate each year based on the industry participants' costs divided by the number of minutes provided.  See II.A.   IP Relay reimbursement actually decreased 5 cents from 2005 to 2006.  Para. 9.  The FCC includes only an additional "1.4 percent rate of return for an allowance for working capital" and only for IP relay.  Para. 27. 

What troubles me is that the more market share that GOAM acquires, the less profitable the endeavor becomes.  In other words, as GOAM's minutes and costs become a larger percentage of the reimbursement formula, the less GOAM can profit from the service.  The reimbursement rate will eventually equal GOAM's cost of providing the service, if GOAM's market share approaches 100%. 

In case anyone missed it, GOAM is go(am)ing crazy today!!

Currently up 25% after tagging $7 gap support this morning.  Missed the early action but picked some up at 8.25.  Not sure what is causing this but it is ON FIRE again!!

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 08, 2007, 01:05:42 PM
In case anyone missed it, GOAM is go(am)ing crazy today!!

Currently up 25% after tagging $7 gap support this morning.  Missed the early action but picked some up at 8.25.  Not sure what is causing this but it is ON FIRE again!!

Nice catch ScottishTrader.  I actually was looking at a time to get back into GOAM this past weekend...I was thinking the time was soon...but I thought it would catch up to the 50dma.

I saw GOAM spike this morning...left for a while only to see it running away from me...as it was I could have still gotten in with a nice profit. 

I will look for an entry... if GOAM lets me...maybe around $9. :-\

Well I jumped in GOAM just after it touched the 9ema.  Now I want a G-breakout. >:D

Hmmm....  I sold half my GOAM shares in the PM today, was too much strength yesterday, and wanted to lock some profits in.  Today's pullback was bigger than i expected which has me a little concerned short term, but longer term I think GOAM should continue its upward momentum.  If we get any more of a pullback, I may look to buy back those shares around 8.25-8.30, which also corresponds to the 61.8% fib retracement level.  Below that, next support looks to come in around 7.80.

My concern right now is the H&S top on the intraday chart.  The price action kind of drifted below the neckline in later trading, but technically, this breakdown puts a target of 7.70 in play, so we could also see a pullback down to this level.

As far as yesterdays price gain on no visible news, I have read a few arguments about the possibility of it being fuelled by a hedge fund piling in a load of money into a volatile low floater like GOAM, knowing its on the day traders radars, and that given enough initial buying, the price increase will fuel more buying, leading to a price explosion.  Seems to make sense, as the volume today was nearly as high as yesterdays, suggesting significant unloading, and both days more than the total float was traded.  I'm really not sure how these things go, though.  I just don't want to get locked back in on a down phase. 

I guess the main thing I'll be looking for is some positive momentum for re-entry.  Maybe we will see it tomorrow...

Nice trade ST.  :)
I got some at 9 today. This stock is very exciting  ;D

Decision time once again for GOAM.  Has pulled back to key $8 support, forming a falling wedge from the big move in early January, which can be clearly seen in the 30 minute chart.  To break out of this wedge it needs to breach 8.25 on Monday.  As we all know, GOAM can be very explosive, so I'll be watching this one closely.  Below 8.00 further support comes in at 7.80 and then at $7, which was the previous reaction level and should provide strong support.  Upside resistance levels to watch out for at 8.50-53, 9.15, 9.53 and 10.40.

Probably not a good stock to try and time it? I want to get back into this one since it did so well when 3SOF had it at the tail end of last year.  I might just put in a smaller order and see what happens

Speaking of bottom fishing for breakouts, GOAM just bust out of another falling wedge and is kicking this afternoon!  Boy can this one move!  Was still bag holding from the last breakout but added to my position in the low 8s.

If we get some continuation tomorrow, I think it should move healthily into the $9 range once again.

GOAM is a stock/company that I know well, and I want to buy it for the Main Portfolio before the Q1 earnings release that is due to happen between today and May 16th (the deadline).

The stock has been having very low volume traded so I urge you not to buy it all at once or we'll put the price up on ourselves. Let me say I don't want anybody buying GOAM above $6, you need to get it between $5 and $6, if you're interested.

I'm buying just 4.8% of capital in GOAM instead of the usual 6.66%, because this trade is linked to TZOO's trade and I want to buy the same amount that I currently have on TZOO. Since I'm currently losing 28.12% on TZOO, I need GOAM to rise 39.12% to compensate for the loss in TZOO. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen after the Q1 earnings release, here's why:

1) GOAM is now a $13.5 M market cap company. It is so small that it can rise 100% or more in just one trading day, if the news warrants it, as I believe it will;
2) Market participants were disappointed with Q4 2006 revenue and earnings:

• GoAmerica(R) Announces Fourth Quarter 2006 and Year End Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070329/nyth115.html?.v=87)
PR Newswire (Thu, Mar 29)

What they failed to understand is that GOAM had all the costs and zero revenue from its new Video Relay Service in Q4 2006. Those revenues and profits kicked in just in Q1 2007, and they can be huge, since VRS is paid at more than $6 a minute by the FCC.

Since GOAM has just 2,462,605 shares outstanding, any small profit will be translated to a significant EPS number. And probably that's going to make the stock run wild.

The trading plan is:

Buy GOAM between $5 and $6, 4.8% of capital. Volume is low, no need to rush to buy your shares, it may take 2 or 3 days to buy mine.

Ok, I got my full line at an average price of $5.61 (just 4.8% of capital), now I'll just have to wait for Q1 earnings that will be out between today and May 16.

first time in my life I started the rally  :). I bought second half of my position at $5.7 and GOAM took off.
Congratulation on this pick David! I really think it's a relatively safe play.

Quote from: raspi on May 08, 2007, 11:41:23 AM
first time in my life I started the rally  :). I bought second half of my position at $5.7 and GOAM took off.
Congratulation on this pick David! I really think it's a relatively safe play.

Thanks raspi :)

Yes, I think we played a role in setting GOAM on fire, the stock is relatively illiquid. But volume is acceptable today. I agree with you, GOAM was trading near book value and below 1 year revenue levels. Absolutely not taking into account the VRS service potential profitability. I hope Q1 numbers already reflect those revenues (the service started in December but it was just on an experimental, testing basis, it only really started in January 2007).

If the company is able to make $500 K in profits that will translate into about $0.20 EPS, which will put the stock in the $12 - $14 range. But even if it's only $0.10 EPS, I guess we'll see $8-$9. And if instead of a profit we get a loss, that is what's priced in right now, so as you say, not much risk here.

wow. 24%. good job guys! unfortunately...i was fully vested. but congrats to a good pick!

well, awesome pick again David, I like the 10 min and daily chart

cheers from Asia
Oliver

The 3Sof Effect... ;D

Okay... I'm officially upset. ;(

I figured I would buy it when I got in the office today (looked at it early and could have bought at $5.60 with you guys)... but you said, no hurry, buy over the next couple of days, don't buy above 6... well it's at almost $7.  I think I'm going to puke... congrats guys... just wished I could have participated.

Hi David,
I just saw your alert mail now....

Do you think that at $7 it's to stretched to get in?

thanks

Quote from: DragonAMG on May 08, 2007, 12:57:02 PM
Okay... I'm officially upset. ;(

I figured I would buy it when I got in the office today (looked at it early and could have bought at $5.60 with you guys)... but you said, no hurry, buy over the next couple of days, don't buy above 6... well it's at almost $7.  I think I'm going to puke... congrats guys... just wished I could have participated.

I only got a little more than half of what i wanted this morn. Didn't realize David was going to offset that TZOO trade in just a few hours. Nice.

Quote from: Lusitano on May 08, 2007, 12:53:52 PM
The 3Sof Effect... ;D

devil group this 3SOF  >:D >:D >:D
I needed this after getting massacred in XING last week  :)

I just bought and flipped it twice for a quick $1,100 (makes me feel a little better  :P )

Good for you though David --- you regained nearly your entire loss in TZOO with GOAM in the matter of hours  ;D    --- you my friend are amazing

Now, should you wish, you can sell GOAM and buy back TZOO and it's like you bought TZOO at 28.  >:D

I bought a few hours ago at 6.10$, thought I was 'too late' ...  :)

hi,
i put a limit order in for 589 after the first foray into 600. went out for a while and came back to find my limit had been hit and it was now a dollar higher. thanks for the pick david,
i will probably take my profits tomorrow . good luck to those who will continue to hold,
maxi

Thanks for your kind words guys :)

I was surprised and lucky about what happened yesterday in GOAM, since I wasn't expecting the stock to run as it did in such a short period of time. In our stock market life we need to be prepared for instant failure and also instant success, so I see yesterday's quick gain as business as usual.

Probably the stock will pullback some today, or else it will run another 20%, I honestly don't know.

This is a different type of trade (as you can see no valuation model was computed (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)). It is a revenge trade and maybe it will be worse for me, over the longer term, to be successful in this flip flop than not.

The idea was to get my TZOO money back, and I needed GOAM to rise, let me see, 39.12% from my buying point. For that I would need to take profits on GOAM at $7.8. That's what I'll do if I get the chance.

The trading plan is to take profits on GOAM between $7.7 and $7.90 (don't you put a barrier at $7.8 or else the market will see it and won't touch it - I'll spread my sell orders around $7.80, but not at that exact price and not all at the same time - I prefer to hit bids instead of being a sitting duck with my orders exposed).

Ahh, I can almost see the mistake coming here ... I'm going to take profits and indeed, GOAM will have a surprising profitable quarter and it will open at $12 - $14 in a few days. But I can't start one trade with a specific objective and then change it, can I? No, that could be damaging from a psychological perspective. Imagine GOAM goes to $7.8, I don't take profits because I expected more, and then earnings come out at a loss (again) and the stock opens down 20%? I had the chance of fulfilling the objective, but didn't took it. I would be confused in the market place, and no speculator is able to think and function well in that situation. I need to protect my mind and spirit so I'm not going to turn a speculative venture into an investment.

Therefore and again, the trading plan is:

Take profits around $7.8.

David

The traget price for this run it should be around $8.70
It had a nice run yesterday with good volume .... This stock is crazy you might see it at 12 in minutes  ;D

Yes, we need to be patient.
yours truely,  Ms. Warren ;)

hi,
sold at 670,
"never underestimate a small amount of money"
thanks
maxi
glta holding

Quote from: David Randolph on May 09, 2007, 12:45:19 AM
Thanks for your kind words guys :)



The trading plan is to take profits on GOAM between $7.7 and $7.90 (don't you put a barrier at $7.8 or else the market will see it and won't touch it - I'll spread my sell orders around $7.80, but not at that exact price and not all at the same time - I prefer to hit bids instead of being a sitting duck with my orders exposed).

Yep; however if it can break the $7.80 area on some decent volume, this puppy ain't done yet ... :)



(http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/4636/goamgl1.png)

Quote from: Garoh on May 09, 2007, 04:29:21 AM
David

The traget price for this run it should be around $8.70
It had a nice run yesterday with good volume .... This stock is crazy you might see it at 12 in minutes  ;D

$8.70? Ok, but that would be serving a different objective of the one I have now. I'm glad you're in GOAM, good luck :)

Quote from: Houlahan on May 09, 2007, 09:36:18 AM
Yes, we need to be patient.
yours truely,  Ms. Warren ;)

I agree Ms. Warren, patience is a needed virtue for any investor.

Quotehi,
sold at 670,
"never underestimate a small amount of money"
thanks
maxi
glta holding

Nice profit Maxi, I see you're back to your old method of swing trading, but now holding stocks for a bit longer. It's a good step, I wish the continuation of your success man :)

QuoteYep; however if it can break the $7.80 area on some decent volume, this puppy ain't done yet ...  :)

Nice chart Se7en, thanks for pinpointing the resistance area.

Ok, I'll maintain the "take profits at $7.8" if you get the chance trading plan, or else "hold", but I almost wish the stock doesn't go there before the Q1 earnings release, so I have the chance of selling it much higher if we get something like $0.2 EPS for the quarter, which would mean Net Income of about $500 K, which seems entirely possible on the $5 - $5.5 M revenue expectation I have for the quarter.

Last year Q1 results were out on May 11, today is May 10, so they can be published any minute now.

For today the trading plan is take profits around $7.8 if the opportunity arises, otherwise keep holding. Technically the stock came back down to test the 50 days SMA, prior resistance, now support, and it should climb back up again today.

Quotehi,
sold at 670,
"never underestimate a small amount of money"
thanks
maxi
glta holding

Nice profit Maxi, I see you're back to your old method of swing trading, but now holding stocks for a bit longer. It's a good step, I wish the continuation of your success man :)




hi david ,
thanks for the kind words. i am sticking to Zurich Axiom 2 , on greed. Always take profits too soon
i got lucky with this one . i didn't really plan it and it paid off . best for me to say thank you , and move on.
glta still holding, i hope it hits the 780 mark ( or close) :D
max

From what I've read back on this thread, GOAM has 12.5% of the IP relay service market so I expect it to have at least that share of the Video Relay market, which is now about a $90 M a quarter market. This means $11.5 M in revenues a quarter for GOAM, wow! I mean "wow" because GOAM's revenues in Q4 2006 were $4.2 M and the market cap of the company is just $16 M.

It would be nice to know the net profit margin of providing the VRS service at a $6.44 per minute reimbursement rate.

Anyway, even though I pray for GOAM not to get to $7.8 before the results, I need to stay objective and focused on this trade, so for today the trading plan remains: "Take profits around $7.8".

Well...
At least the Low Volume in GOAM is mainly small fishes buying:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=GOAM&csize=06&PositionId=2147483647&Event=peek&period=d

QuoteAt least the Low Volume in GOAM is mainly small fishes buying:

You meant small fishes "selling", right?

I have this plan of taking profits in GOAM if the stock reaches the $7.80 area, but I'm happy that it didn't, because I feel I'll have the chance of selling the stock much higher. Let me try to explain, by topics, my current thinking on GOAM:

1) I thought the stock was too cheap between $5 and $6 and took my position at $5.61. My analysis says investors sold the stock due to a disappointing 4Q 2006, but that wasn't right, because the real action only started in January 2007 when the company launched its VRS service. I believe the market will be positively surprised by Q1 2007 results, perhaps so surprised that the stock will open with a huge gap up, we'll see.
2) Anyway, I see this trade as an opportunity to get back the money I lost in TZOO quickly (which isn't a sound course of action, but we're all humans). This is why I have this plan of taking profits at $7.80 if I get the chance. Why isn't GOAM a long term investment like all others of the Main Portfolio? Because, as we've discussed previously in this thread, the company operates in an industry that will have zero profit over the long run, because the reimbursement rate that the FCC pays is fixed in connection with the cost of providing the service, making sure there are no profits over the long run. Even though some companies can be profitable, the industry can't over the long run, because if the FCC sees profits it will cut the rate it pays for the IP relay service and the Video relay service (VRS).
3) But if the market sees, for example, $0.20 EPS for the quarter, I'm sure the stock will open at $10 - $12 (people won't know or consider the FCC issue at that time, one has to dig a lot to find it). And  it would take just $500 K net income to achieve $0.20 EPS. Why do I think a $0.20 EPS is possible, right here, right now, in Q1 2007?
4) Because the VRS market is a $100 M a quarter market. GOAM has 12.5% of market share of the IPRS market, so I assume it will also get a 12.5% share of the VRS market over the long term. Say GOAM has just 5% of the VRS market in Q1 2007, that will mean $5 M in new revenues in Q1 alone. The costs of developing and marketing the service were already made in Q4 2006, so, with about $9 M in revenues in Q1 2007, I guess $0.5 M in net income is achievable (that would mean a 5.5% net profit margin)
5) What if GOAM loses money? What's the risk? I don't see much risk, because the company's book value is $11.061 M (current market cap is $15.39 M), and 2007 revenues will be at least $24 M (they were $12 M in 2006, up from $8 M in 2005). I don't see the stock trading below a market cap of $11 M - $12 M, that is, about $4.7.
6) Considering my $5.61 entry point, the short term potential reward is 96%, the short term potential risk is about 16%. I'll take it.

So, the trading plan remains "take profits at $7.8 if you get a chance before results", after results I'll make a new analysis and adjust the trading plan accordingly.

I know you guys are gonna laugh at this..
But if you are into this sort of thing, you might enjoy this prediction chart:
http://www.stock100.com/plotForecast.asp?symbol=GOAM&history=200&future=30

>:D

Wxmang

Quote from: wxmang on May 14, 2007, 06:24:15 PM
I know you guys are gonna laugh at this..
But if you are into this sort of thing, you might enjoy this prediction chart:
http://www.stock100.com/plotForecast.asp?symbol=GOAM&history=200&future=30

>:D

Wxmang

Hi Wxmang, that's a funny site. They probably programmed a technical system to make those forecasts. It's nice to see their system still sees GOAM as bullish, even though the stock went down about 50% between December 2006 and April 2007. I also see GOAM's chart as bullish, since it reacted well to the 200 days SMA long term support and it is also above the 50 days SMA now.

Earnings were not out yet, so I'll keep the plan of taking profits at $7.8 if I get the chance. If not, I'll keep holding GOAM.

Was it Se7en that asked about GOAM's earnings date on NGA's thread? I guess Q1 2007 earnings will be published this week, last year they were released in May 11.

So is today the deadline for 10-Q?

Here it is!

Form 10-Q for GOAMERICA INC

15-May-2007

Quarterly Report


http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070515/goam10-q.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070515/goam10-q.html)

Quote from: realcoolhead on May 15, 2007, 04:36:37 PM
So is today the deadline for 10-Q?

Yes, it was out at 16:43. Not the numbers I was expecting, unfortunately ::)

I'll cover it more deeply when I get to GOAM's update.

I was feeling the "Travel Zoo" sickness until I read this in the report:

"Total revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2007 increased to approximately $4.3 million, compared to total revenue in the previous quarter of approximately $4.2 million; and an increase of 163% compared to total revenue of approximately $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2006."

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/nytu186.html?.v=61

Holy Moley!
163% Rev Increase YOY!
Wow!

Quote from: wxmang on May 15, 2007, 05:43:12 PM
I was feeling the "Travel Zoo" sickness until I read this in the report:

"Total revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2007 increased to approximately $4.3 million, compared to total revenue in the previous quarter of approximately $4.2 million; and an increase of 163% compared to total revenue of approximately $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2006."

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/nytu186.html?.v=61

Holy Moley!
163% Rev Increase YOY!
Wow!

Doesn't matter...the market was expecting better results.

I'm anxious to know what David thinks about them.

Well, the problem is that if David says he is gonna sell at the open, so will the rest of the "3stocksonfire" followers and then expect approx. 20-30% downside tomorrow :(
So, I am hoping he liked the REV YOY numbers.

I sold in AH trading... no matter how we look at it.. this is a disappointing report. GL to all.

Dissapointing if you are going by David's expectations...

Quote from: wxmang on May 15, 2007, 06:42:07 PM
Well, the problem is that if David says he is gonna sell at the open, so will the rest of the "3stocksonfire" followers and then expect approx. 20-30% downside tomorrow :(
So, I am hoping he liked the REV YOY numbers.

That's ridiculous, we don't move stocks, especially on days after earnings when there's plenty of liquidity. I doubt we collectively own more than 20,000 shares, and probably GOAM tomorrow will trade 20 or 30 times that volume.

I agree with raspi, it doesn't matter how we cut it, results were very disappointing, since in my dreams I saw $0.20 EPS and instead I got a loss of ($0.35). Unfortunately something didn't go well with the VRS service.

I entered GOAM with the objective of getting a fast 39% profit, but at its best the stock gave me just 31.9%, so I didn't take it. I'm prepared to get out tomorrow with a 5 - 10% or so profit, not a problem by me. Remember that I specifically told for nobody to buy above $6, so if someone is going to lose on this trade ... well, it happens. The reward/risk ratio seemed favorable, but fundamentals didn't develop as I expected.

There's always risk involved in stock speculation, and GOAM's trade was a sort of speculation. Having made the decision to sell I'm starting to feel glad that I didn't make my TZOO's money back quickly, that would open a bad precedent that probably would lead to more serious failure of some kind in the future. I'll go to bed feeling lucky.

The trading plan for GOAM is: SELL.

We all figured out a long time ago that GOAM's business is, at best, a break even plan.  The payments are structured so that the industry's profit is zero. 

David,

"we don't move stocks"
GOAM's average volume on a given day according to Yahoo is 77,435
You don't think you moved the stock when you chose GOAM on May 08, 2007 ?
Honestly?

But, I do understand that after earnings the Volume should be larger than normal with additional liquidity. No doubt about that... I am not that loco :)

hi,
i did buy above 6 , (gulp!)
here is a funny story.
yesterday i made a day trade with goam at 655 seeing the set up i like for a day trade i sold
689.
today i saw the same set up at 700 and i liked it. the bid was 702 the ask was 707 so i put in a bid for 1000shares at 705 thinking i would sell between 730 and 750 resistance.
they took my bid! fantastic! so it hits 740 on a couple of candles and  can see the chart turning.
so i decide to sell at 735 . low and behold when i look at my account  i was only sold six shares instead of 1000!
i hadn't ticked the all or nothing box .
so i am selling my six shares in the morning. ::)
glta,
max

Quote from: rickjust on May 15, 2007, 09:22:35 PM
hi,
i did buy above 6 , (gulp!)
here is a funny story.
yesterday i made a day trade with goam at 655 seeing the set up i like for a day trade i sold
689.
today i saw the same set up at 700 and i liked it. the bid was 702 the ask was 707 so i put in a bid for 1000shares at 705 thinking i would sell between 730 and 750 resistance.
they took my bid! fantastic! so it hits 740 on a couple of candles and  can see the chart turning.
so i decide to sell at 735 . low and behold when i look at my account  i was only sold six shares instead of 1000!
i hadn't ticked the all or nothing box .
so i am selling my six shares in the morning. ::)

glta,
max

Max,

You might as well hang on to those 6 shares being worth something just over $36. 

I've done the same thing before owning 4 shares of a stock.  Months later the stock started to move up, so I bought more and sold for a good profit. I don't know if I would have noticed the move had I not owned the stock in the first place. ;D

pfff, what a blood bath ... :( :( :(

Quote from: wxmang on May 15, 2007, 08:44:29 PM
David,

"we don't move stocks"
GOAM's average volume on a given day according to Yahoo is 77,435
You don't think you moved the stock when you chose GOAM on May 08, 2007 ?
Honestly?

But, I do understand that after earnings the Volume should be larger than normal with additional liquidity. No doubt about that... I am not that loco :)

If David really believes that collectively 3SOF and members had only 20K shares, I must be putting entirely too much into these.... Still got  out with no damage done other than giving back profits.


To the 3SOF member and yahoo poster radunka340, who posted this last night;

"portfolio manager of 3 Stocks on fire investment group recommended GOAM in low $5s a week ago and it started the move up... he expected EPS of $0.25... Q1 results are much worse and he already issued sell order for tomorrow... Not a terribly profitable trade...
It's time to short it...

Sentiment : Sell"

Next time try to remember that not all 3SOF members in this had a chance to get out in aftermarket. We're supposed to be team members here, not self serving yahoo posters. Besides, if you wanted to short it, the higher the price, the better. Try to be more couteous to your fellow members next time. Wish I knew who to smite.

If what BigSully said about radunka340 is true, that is a very bad move, he spread the word to the community outside Stockonfire before allowing us to sell at a not so bad price as it is.

Information and anticipation is a key factor - one that we pay for - at trading and he blow it...my wallet didn't like it neither do I.

I'm more piss off with the attitude than with the trade, it was only 22%X6,66% of the capital, but just of thinking that it could be less worst if someone know to shut up, pisses me off.

I'm going to talk to Ramsburg to see if he can find out who did that, but don't think it had a major impact on GOAM (maybe no impact at all), because GOAM would be down 20% plus today, 3 Stocks selling or not. It wasn't just me, many people on Yahoo thought the current quarter would be profitable, so the disappointment is widespread.

But I agree, stupid attitude.

BigSully1, do you have a link for that Yahoo post? I can't find it at GOAM's message board. Thanks.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 16, 2007, 10:25:43 AM
BigSully1, do you have a link for that Yahoo post? I can't find it at GOAM's message board. Thanks.

Here's the thread;

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=te&bn=27180&tid=81486&mid=-1&tof=8&rt=2&frt=2&off=1#-1

You guys can't be serious. David is right, a post on a message board has nothing to do with GOAM's action... They reported very disappointing results and stock price went down, just as we expected.
David did a right decision to sell it and 3SOF contributed to the decline that would happen anyway. It already did yesterday in AH trading...
Similarly when David sold XING there were posts on XING message board that 3SOF is responsible for XING's decline... this is just ridiculous. By the way I saw that videos with stocks analysis are freely available on youtube... It's a good thing, 3SOF is not some kind of sect that would act somewhere in the shadows of the market.

Never hold stock through earnings ;)  ....well, you can if you are really lucky. :D

I disagree Raspi. Why include the information pertaining to David and this board if it was not meant to effect the price of the stock? It's clear that the intention was to spread negative sentiment albeit however minor the effect may have been it's the principle of the matter.

Quote from: ygtrdr on May 16, 2007, 11:13:32 AM
I disagree Raspi. Why include the information pertaining to David and this board if it was not meant to effect the price of the stock?

according to your theory, no information should be posted at all... if analysts only issued positive information, would that make you happy? GOAM issued an ER that was horrible thus it tanked.
P.S. Why the smite? I only expressed my opinion as you guys did... I am not happy either with the way this trade went.. but it's the way it goes and there's no need to get over emotional. Other trades are doing just fine. Good luck to all.

That was not me that smited you. Someone gave me an applaud for my post so I assume it was the same person that smited you.

You just supported my point with your post. The information was included to create negative sentiment. Otherwise why would it have been posted?

I checked the yahoo message board, there were dozens of other posts, some of them posting that ER was very good and AH seller only want to scare buyers! That's what I call misinformation :-).
I applauded you. I am in a very good mood because XING finally has nice PR after 2 months of falling. GL

Thanks for the link BigSully1. Fortunately it seems not many people paid attention to it, but I guess it wouldn't have much impact anyway.

QuoteSimilarly when David sold XING there were posts on XING message board that 3SOF is responsible for XING's decline... this is just ridiculous.

By the way, that was a good call, we sold XING at $19.61 and the stock now stands at $14.49. I wonder if now isn't a good time to get back in ::)

QuoteBy the way I saw that videos with stocks analysis are freely available on youtube... It's a good thing, 3SOF is not some kind of sect that would act somewhere in the shadows of the market.

Yes, I upload all videos on youtube.com, but I never disclose what I'm going to do with the stock at the video analysis.

Quote from: Terliso on May 16, 2007, 11:08:03 AM
Never hold stock through earnings ;)  ....well, you can if you are really lucky. :D

Hi Terliso, nice to see you :) Your sentence is equivalent to saying: "never hold a stock for more than 3 months", so obviously I couldn't agree with it. But good luck with your strategy :)

QuoteBy the way, that was a good call, we sold XING at $19.61 and the stock now stands at $14.49. I wonder if now isn't a good time to get back in ::)

It sure is.. I am fully loaded. They even clarified the issue with outstanding stock that bothered you. DKR converted its shares in QXM

Quote from: raspi on May 16, 2007, 11:51:29 AM

QuoteBy the way, that was a good call, we sold XING at $19.61 and the stock now stands at $14.49. I wonder if now isn't a good time to get back in ::)

It sure is.. I am fully loaded. They even clarified the issue with outstanding stock that bothered you. DKR converted its shares in QXM

Did they? raspi, please request an analysis on XING at the Analysis on Demand thread, at 11 AM, ET, tomorrow, I would like to take a fresh new look at it. Thanks.

Quote from: raspi on May 16, 2007, 10:55:20 AM
You guys can't be serious. David is right, a post on a message board has nothing to do with GOAM's action... They reported very disappointing results and stock price went down, just as we expected.
David did a right decision to sell it and 3SOF contributed to the decline that would happen anyway. It already did yesterday in AH trading...
Similarly when David sold XING there were posts on XING message board that 3SOF is responsible for XING's decline... this is just ridiculous. By the way I saw that videos with stocks analysis are freely available on youtube... It's a good thing, 3SOF is not some kind of sect that would act somewhere in the shadows of the market.

How much immediate effect it had on opening, we'll never know. Most likely it did convince many people not subscribing to the service to sell immediately. But yes the stock would have inevitably ended up much lower anyway.

All of that is beside the point.

As paying members, we are privy to information that we don't want the public to see before we have a chance to act upon it. When you broadcast this priviledged info beforehand, you are doing all our members a disservice.

What if David came across a thinly traded stock that had enormous potential and that he couldn't feel more positive about. He puts out an emphatic strong buy on it the day before. Then some Yahoo plasters his analysis on public boards, public buyers love the analysis and pile in, the stock gaps way up and now paid subscribers are afraid to get in or can't get in anywhere near the price they expected. Would you feel that was fair to you?

Anyway, I could expect things like that to happen while David had all the message boards open to the public. But not now. Please rethink your attitude.

Quote from: raspi on May 16, 2007, 11:41:32 AM
I checked the yahoo message board, there were dozens of other posts, some of them posting that ER was very good and AH seller only want to scare buyers! That's what I call misinformation :-).
I applauded you. I am in a very good mood because XING finally has nice PR after 2 months of falling. GL

I agree it is nothing personal. I simply disagree with your stance that disclosing or using private information to influence a stocks price to the detriment of the paying members is no big deal.

applaud on your XING. I have been in and out of XING a few times and it looks like it might be time to get back in.

Quote from: ygtrdr on May 16, 2007, 12:41:09 PM
applaud on your XING. I have been in and out of XING a few times and it looks like it might be time to get back in.

Nothing to applaud on :-). I was buying all the way from $18 to $14 :-)... My average price is about $15.. I though QXM IPO was a good news and I was wrong.. However after QXM released Q1 results today I think that XING will earn much more than $2 per share this year and I am very optimistic about it.

David: I never have time to post a request for analysis around 11am... I hope somebody else will do that. But is it really necessary for you to analyze a stock you like?