Way Undervalued.
Buying DECK and Calls.
Buying.
Calls also look great !
Do the DD. All negative factored in a month ago.
Up from here.
Hi Jeff,
Theres no need to post this message on severall boards.
... the chart is in a downtrend. Good luck :)
Well a gap fill potential play if ever I saw one. Triple bottom test down at $21, support around $25 zone, 1 day red to $30 gap to $35.
nice pick
why does DECK have such a huge short interest?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=
-rocket8
interesting financial note: sketcher's (SKX) PE ratio is double DECKS.
maybe DECK has room upwards.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/pomrmy/10227171.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
thoughts on this negative article on DECK ?
Quote from: aussietrader on June 23, 2005, 02:41:51 AM
Well a gap fill potential play if ever I saw one.
DECK is shaping up nicely for your rally toward the gap.
We're now 50 trading days beyond the gap down, so the 50DMA is flattening out, currently at 23.66. The bottom of the recent bull flag is slightly below that, say 23.50iish. Volume during the bull flag formation is low, which is good.
I'd like to see DECK hammer off the bottom of the bull flag and 50DMA, then take out the top of the bull flag for a second bullish pattern breakout. There's plenty of running room between here and the gap for a nice rally.
Sorry, you have to use the horizontal scroll bar below the chart to see the bull flag formation.
It also could be that DECK put in a low on Friday, and that it's going to break out of this little Symmetrical Triangle (chart below). I guess that would make sense from a fractal standpoint (repeating patterns). Big Symmetrical Triangle...Little Symmetrical Triangle.
In either case, the scenario in the post above and this one both are bullish on a pattern breakout. Taking out the down trendline from the recent June 23 top will tell us which pattern it is, if/when it breaks out.
Quote from: Melf Elf on July 04, 2005, 04:23:54 AM
It also could be that DECK put in a low on Friday, and that it's going to break out of this little Symmetrical Triangle (chart below). I guess that would make sense from a fractal standpoint (repeating patterns). Big Symmetrical Triangle...Little Symmetrical Triangle.
It was the Symmetrical Triangle.
DECK re-tested the tops of both Symmetrical Triangles near yesterday's open. Former resistance should provide support. It did. DECK rallied from the triangle tops and put in a bullish engulfing pattern on the day, up $0.77.
Nice chart action so far, confirming the two bullish pattern breakouts.
Follow-thru to the upside, after Thursday's double re-test of the triangle breakouts.
Melf Elf,
On 05/20/05, Forbes Special Situation Survey recommended DECK @ $22.66 as a "VALUE" play and expected it to rise to $35 within two years.. Does your TA (Symmetrical Triangles etc. ) indicate that now is a good entry point and perhaps it would be sooner than two years before it reaches $30 or $35?
Thanks,
baltojohn2003
Quote from: baltojohn2003 on July 10, 2005, 03:36:40 PM
Melf Elf,
On 05/20/05, Forbes Special Situation Survey recommended DECK @ $22.66 as a "VALUE" play and expected it to rise to $35 within two years.. Does your TA (Symmetrical Triangles etc. ) indicate that now is a good entry point and perhaps it would be sooner than two years before it reaches $30 or $35?
Thanks,
baltojohn2003
Baltojohn,
$30-$35 in two years seems very reasonable, based on the chart. The April 21, 2005 gap down (see gap area on the chart) was from a $34.16 close the day before, and the print low on April 18, prior to the gap down, was $33.06. Those are right in the middle-to-high end of the range that you mention.
What I liked so much about this chart when Aussietrader presented it, was the fact that it was building a nice pattern from which to breakout and attack that $33.00 gap area. I liked the second pattern breakout on July5 even more, and I REALLY liked that successful re-test of the double breakout at $24.30 last Thursday morning. $
$24.30 was "the perfect entry" into the stock, if there is such a thing as "a perfect entry." ;) The chart was saying, "I've broken out of two bullish patterns, and now I've come back and successfully re-tested the down trendlines from BOTH breakouts. What more do you want?" ;D
It's acting very well, technically, but as we've seen many times, these patterns can "morph" (or, change) into something else. If you re-read my charts on this thread from last weekend, for example, I was trying to figure out if the second pattern was going to be a bull flag, or another symmetrical triangle breakout. ??? The July 5 upside breakout of the down trendline told the tale: it was a symmetrical triangle breakout, a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the larger symmetrical triangle breakout.
The chart now needs to take out $26.08 to the upside. That was the June 23 high of the little Ascending Triangle. If that doesn't happen, and the stock heads down, the recent pattern could "morph" (change) into something else. We'll just have to watch it.
As long as the stock remains above the breakouts, the larger Ascending Triangle target of $29.25 is IN PLAY. That's just a target that we're aiming for. Sometimes stocks fall short of targets, sometimes the targets are exceeded which, in this case, would mean that DECK would continue higher to fill that gap area beginning at $33.00.
That was the long answer to your question. :D Short answer: as the chart stands, I'd expect to see at least $29.25 by the end of September of this year.
As far as an entry point is concerned, for me, that's always predicated on being able to structure a good risk/reward on the trade, based on what the chart is indicating. Since $29.25 is IN PLAY, from Friday's close of 25.80, the reward is 11.8%. It would be much more if DECK goes up and fills the gap starting at the $33.00 area, but I use the pattern measurement as the target, then see what develops as we go along.
If the reward is 11.8%, I don't like to risk more than half that, or 5.9%, so that my risk:reward always is at least a 1:2 ratio. I prefer 1:3, or better.
A 5.9% loss on an entry of 25.80 (Friday's close) is a price of $24.28, which is two cents below Thursday's low (24.30), which was the successful double re-test of the two pattern breakouts. That works out, since it's a "logical stop," meaning that it makes sense to put the stop there. $24.30 "should be" support now. If it isn't, you probably want to get out of the stock and protect yourself while it "morphs" into something else. :D
Sorry for the long answer, but beyond analyzing a chart, I think that it can be very difficult trying to figure out how to play it so that you're stacking the odds in your favor (risk/reward) of having a successful trade. Where to enter? Why? Where's my stop? Why is that my stop? Is the market likely to react by selling, for example, if $24.30 support gets broken? I think so, because that important successful re-test last Thursday no longer would be successful >:(
Good luck with your trading!
Up $1.00 yesterday. New high for the move.
The call options worked out well !
Deckers Outdoor Corporation Reports Second Quarter Results; Company Confirms High-End of Previous Guidance for Fiscal 2005
Business Wire - July 21, 2005 07:30
GOLETA, Calif., Jul 21, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NASDAQ: DECK) today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005.
For the second quarter, net sales were $40.3 million compared to $40.5 million in the same period last year. Net earnings for the quarter were $2.7 million, compared to net earnings of $5.1 million in the same period last year, and diluted earnings per share were $0.21 compared to diluted earnings per share of $0.43 in the second quarter of 2004.
For the six months ended June 30, 2005, net sales increased 23% to $104.6 million compared to $84.8 million in the same period last year. Net earnings for the first half of fiscal 2005 increased 11% to $11.6 million, compared to net earnings of $10.5 million in the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.90 compared to diluted earnings per share of $0.91 in the same period of fiscal 2004.
Douglas Otto, Chairman of Deckers Outdoor, stated, "As expected, Teva's dependency on open toe sandals combined with the lingering cold weather during the Spring 2005 season negatively impacted our domestic Teva business during the quarter, while weakness in certain international markets affected Teva's overseas business. However, demand for UGG remained strong and as we enter our key selling period for UGG we are very excited about the opportunities we continue to see in the marketplace. The UGG orders for our Fall season have come in strong and we expect another record year for our UGG brand in 2005."
Including sales from both the wholesale divisions and the Internet and catalog retailing business, Teva sales for the second quarter decreased to $24.8 million from $27.1 million in the same period a year ago, while UGG sales increased to $13.3 million compared to $11.7 million for the second quarter last year. Simple sales increased to $2.2 million compared to $1.8 million for the second quarter last year. Sales for the Internet and catalog retailing business, which are included in the brand sales numbers above, aggregated approximately $3.5 million for the second quarter of 2005, compared to $4.9 million for the second quarter of 2004.
Mr. Otto continued, "Our UGG business for the first half of 2005 was very positive, with sales more than doubling compared to the first half of 2004. We feel very good about UGG's performance year to date and expect this momentum to continue this Fall. For the upcoming Fall season, we have substantially broadened our product offerings and increased the number of slipper and casual footwear styles. We also introduced new collections including the Metropolitan Collection, which includes the Cargo Boot and the Uptown Mukluk, while continuing to deliver the popular Classic and Ultra styles that have been the mainstay of the UGG brand. Based on our strong bookings, current sell-through rates and positive retailer response, we feel very encouraged about both the near- and long-term prospects for the brand. We believe that, over time, we have a tremendous opportunity to increase our geographic penetration and expand our footwear and non-footwear categories and we are dedicated to taking full advantage of the significant growth prospects that lie ahead."
QuoteThat was the long answer to your question. Short answer: as the chart stands, I'd expect to see at least $29.25 by the end of September of this year.
This is a nice surprise. DECK is indicated BID 29.34...ASK 29.50 in pre-market trading. If that holds up, I'll sell into my target.
Updated: 07:54 AM EDT
Deckers Outdoor Corporation Reports Second Quarter Results; Company Confirms High-End of Previous Guidance for Fiscal 2005
fill_the_gap,
Just saw your post! I didn't know that this thread existed. Hopefully, Ramsburg will merge them. Congratualtions and applause on your options.
Melf,
Not a big deal.
Hard to keep up with it all on here.
I got in before it was On Fire.
No harm done,
Glad you made money too. 8)
-Jeff-
Sold at 29.74
How's this for an example of "take profits when your target is made?" It opened at 29.99, well beyond my 29.25 target. I sold it, then it immediately collapsed. Yikes. :o
http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1121955706234?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DECK&Interval=10&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409
Could someone give me an educated insight on the possible future of DECK - say a month or two out? What's the chance of it closing that gap anytime soon?
Jim Cramer and Oprah recently endorsed DECK.
I am in for the short squeeze and new money push.
It was the number one hit for Amazon shopping.
Anything Oprah touched turns to gold.
TA also looks great now.
Holding for 30's. ;D
Jim Cramer and Oprah recently endorsed DECK.
I am in for the short squeeze and new money push.
It was the number one hit for Amazon shopping.
Anything Oprah touched turns to gold.
TA also looks great now.
Holding for 30's. ;D
The shorts are covering. ;D
Hi,
A cup and handle is forming...We can anticipate or not... :)
"DECK" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders. ;D
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. ;)
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$
I will leave you the chart while I'm in this thread
Wow. If I had bought this stock the first time I saw a babe wearing them, I'd be drinking Bud Lights in Vegas for a living.
This is one of the most impressive weekly charts I have ever seen.
On a similar note, CROX looks to be in buy range. It was way oversold, imo. See how it acts tomorrow..