3SOF

Keep this biotech stock on watch list.

I think HEB, NVAX and SVA are great plays for the Bird FLu.  THings are heating up with all the news of late on the topic.


Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed in a letter to shareholders (September 1, 2005) that it has increased the capacity of its facility in New Brunswick, NJ to manufacture Ampligen® , as well as advancements in the application of Alferon LDO for potential treatment of avian flu.

updating chart.

Simply can't resist, I have to have HEB in my portfolio.  Apparantly this Avarian flu is a big deal (surely an understatment).

If I trade NVAX and SVA, then why not diversify with HEB?  This is my logic.

Currently @ $1.77, but could easily get back to $4-5 if new cases develop.  I'm not hoping for an outbreak, but I see similarities between how stocks are reacting to this strain of influenza and how certain security stocks reacted to terrorism.

News from the last couple of hours.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051004/ap_on_he_me/bush_avian_flu;_ylt=AithNrSt0UBYYNcN_vSXClSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3NTE-

Bush Considers Military Role in Flu Fight

WASHINGTON -     President Bush, increasingly concerned about a possible avian flu pandemic, revealed Tuesday that any part of the country where the virus breaks out could likely be quarantined and that he is considering using the military to enforce it.

"The best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins," he said during a wide-ranging Rose Garden news conference.

The president was asked if his recent talk of giving the military the lead in responding to large natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and other catastrophes was in part the result of his concerns that state and local personnel aren't up to the task of a flu outbreak.

"Yes," he replied.

After the bungled initial federal response to Katrina, Bush suggested putting the     Pentagon in charge of search-and-rescue efforts in times of a major terrorist attack or similarly catastrophic natural disaster. He has argued that the armed forces have the ability to quickly mobilize the equipment, manpower and communications capabilities needed in times of crisis.

But such a shift could require a change in law, and some in Congress and the states worry it would increase the power of the federal government at the expense of local control.

Bush made clear that the potential for an outbreak of avian flu is much on his mind, and has had him talking with "as many (world) leaders as I could find," consulting a book he read over the summer on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed 40 million and meeting with staff and experts.

"I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean," he said.

He acknowledged that a quarantine — an idea sure to alarm many in the public — is no small thing for the government to undertake and that enforcing it would be tricky.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes," Bush said. "It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu."

He urged Congress to give him the ability to use the military, if needed.

"I think the president ought to have all ... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," he said.

As a standby precaution, Bush in April signed an executive order that added pandemic influenza to the government's list of communicable diseases for which a quarantine is authorized. It gives the government legal authority to detain or isolate a passenger arriving in the United States to prevent an infection from spreading.

At the time the order was signed, a spokeswoman for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the Public Health Service would probably recommend home quarantines when possible, but said they would be voluntary. It's unclear whether the federal takeover of state and local quarantine powers that Bush discussed Tuesday would be limited just to travel or involve broader home quarantines as well.

Bush also said he has been urging world leaders to improve reporting on outbreaks of the virus, and exploring how to speed the production of a spray, now in limited supply, that "can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease."

"One of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?" he said.

Yet it is the pill Tamiflu, which makes symptoms less severe and shortens the duration of the illness, that is in short supply — not its harder-to-use inhaled competitor Relenza.

Experts agree there will certainly be another flu pandemic — a new human flu strain that goes global. However, it is unknown when or how bad that global epidemic will be — or whether the H5N1 bird flu strain now circulating in Asian poultry will be its origin.

Just in case, experts are tracking the avian flu, which has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, jumped to humans and killed at least 65 people.

Most human cases have been linked to a contact with sick birds, but the     World Health Organization has warned the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans — changing it from a bird virus to a human pandemic flu strain.

It appears that HEB's Ampligen is already being used in sales/marketing strategies, which boasts the enhanced affect of Tamiflu.

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Avian bird flu - Tamiflu and Ampligen most effective combination
Recent news reports inform that preclinical studies conducted on dsRNA (Double-stranded RNA) based drug Ampligen, being manufactured by Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. might prove to be the perfect compliment to Tamiflu, the most effective medication for Influenza affliction. Ampligen is an experimental immunomodulator and will hopefully play a potentially pivotal role in improving the efficacy of the present standards of care in influenza prevention as well as treatment of acute diseases.

poorman1

SVA, NVAX and HEB are the front runners in this mania.

HEB has Ampligen, which shows to increas the success of TamiFlu

Two days ago, the US Senate passed a $4 Billion bill to purchase TamiFlu(TM) (Roche) and also to pursue additional strategies for prevention as well as treatment. Tamiflu(TM) has limited effectiveness but remains the only means of treatment against avian flu at present. The Senate funding move came the same day the United Nations' new avian flu coordinator Dr. David Nabarro warned that a flu pandemic could kill millions of people worldwide.

Broke $2 ! NICE !  ;D

This chart is behind the RTQ but captures the breakout.

Looks good saffeysite.  I shoulda bought more   :(

Me too!!

I only got half my order filled at 1.87, after I saw it breakout.  Another one of those ridiculous instances where I was going to buy at the open and just needed to free up some capital.  While I was figuring what to sell, HEB broke out!  Believe me, it wasn't hard to figure out which of my losers to sell then, am only bummed that my whole order didn't get filled.

Oh well, with the other half I bought back into HOM after it filled the gap.  nice. ;D

I didn't pay attention before (DOU!), but when the president wants to go as far as Martial Law to combat Bird Flu, THAT gets my attention (yes, I'm dense).

http://dbs.cordis.lu/cgi-bin/srchidadb?CALLER=NHP_EN_NEWS&ACTION=D&SESSION=&RCN=EN_RCN_ID:24551

The article says that new strains of Bird Flu are becoming resistant to Tamiflu, which means that Ampligen will be 'required' alongside Tamiflu.

Market cap of only 100 Million and there is talk of 4 BILLION being spent to fight the Bird Flu. 

Quote from: saffeysite1 on September 30, 2005, 07:55:34 PM
I think HEB, NVAX and SVA are great plays for the Bird FLu.  THings are heating up with all the news of late on the topic.

Great job, Saffeysite.  Applause.

All 3 stocks are up in AH !

Profile: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB). The Group's principal activity is to develop therapeutic products for the treatment of viral diseases and certain cancers. The Group's proprietary drug technology utilizes specifically configured ribonucleic acid (RNA) and is protected by more than 300 patents worldwide. The products of the Group include Ampligen, oragenT drugs. Ampligen is being developed clinically for three anti-viral indications: myalgic encephalomyelitis, human immunodeficiency virus associated disorders and chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

Recent News:

-Hemispherx Biopharma Signs Research Agreement with Japanese National Institute of Infectious Disease; Ampligen(R) Sought as Adjuvant for Nasal Flu Vaccine (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBF0A7E36%2D50CC%2D4A15%2D86A4%2DFBA1A43EE35F%7D)

-Ampligen (R) Enhances the Effectiveness of Tamiflu Against Avian Influenza; Second Independent Preclinical Study Confirms dsRNA Increases Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B25294F14%2D0BB0%2D4287%2D9996%2D70111043C9E6%7D)

-Hemispherx Biopharma Expands Manufacturing Facility for Production of Ampligen(R); Status of clinical trial advancements for Alferon LDO and manufacturing programs updated in stockholder letter (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1C462B73%2D6EEF%2D4610%2DA1A2%2DB716009DB004%7D)

Market Cap: $116.21M ("51,193,155  shares of common stock were issued and  outstanding  as of August 2, 2005.")

Insiders Activity: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/insiders.asp?siteID=mktw&symb=HEB (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/insiders.asp?siteID=mktw&symb=HEB)

Fundamental Reasoning:

I think we're officially in a bear market now. Only specific stories and stock picks will do. Speculators are starting to bet the Bird Flu will be a serious problem for the World (read this article: WHO warns of dire flu pandemic (http://www.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/11/25/birdflu.warning/))

The article is from 2004, but recently everybody is talking and thinking about the Bird Flu because scientists are calling for fast measures to be taken, because the Bird Flu Pandemic will unfortunately almost for sure be a reality in the near future. Even the President is talking about it: http://search.cnn.com/pages/search.jsp?query=bird%20flu, and a UN top official said the disease could kill 150 million people around the world  :'(

Governments around the world are feeling the pressure to buy vaccines and antidotes to fight the possibly upcoming pandemic. HEB has a drug on its PhaseIII clinical trials that seems to be effective  against the Bird Flu virus, as you can read on the recent news in the beginning of this text.

If the pandemic really outbreaks, everybody in the world will be looking for something that just a few companies have. It will be like water in the desert, or even more needed, like oxygen on the moon.

Of course, I don't know the future and I hope nothing of this dread scenario plays out. But I know about speculation and people are starting to speculate on this story. I own SVA and of course a part of its rise is due to this speculation theme. There are not much more themes to speculate at this point, so we need to take the small piece of the action the market is giving.

Technical Reasoning:

The all history chart shows us that the volume today was the highest in the stock's history and that usually means a strong bullish move is coming:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6380;image)

The stock is also at a low point, so the positive fundamental developments are not priced in.

Considering the medium term we can see that the stock broke a resistance level today that can act as a safety net to this trade:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6381;image)

$1.96 was that resistance level, now support.

On the short term level, the candlestick level, today the stock had a long white marubozu with record volume:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6382;image)

In a situation like this, a pure technical analyst must buy first and ask questions later.

Trading Plan:

I guess the stock will open with a gap up tomorrow, it closed up 5.73% on after hours and with the President talking about the Bird Flu ... but I have to buy anyway, this is the only game in town (a sad one indeed, but the stock market has no feelings, so as a speculator I run away from them too - not as a person, of course  :))

So what I will do is close my eyes and buy HEB at tomorrow's open. My trading plan is to sell only if the stock ever closes back below $1.96 or when some serious news about the Bird Flu hits the wires. Buy the rumor, sell the news, even more true with theme stocks.

It is certainly looking bearish out there.

In addition to HEB, I'm aggressively moving to cash (except for 3SOF picks and shorts). Will you be giving general advice about the bear market in any thread?

I hope fellow members will share their views of the market shift in the "Market Talk" thread I started today:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3036.0

Late addition: Ampligen, the candidate for bird flu treatment, has been around for quite some time, dubbed by the Wall St Journal as "a treatment in search of a disease." It's been the center of a great deal of controversy, lawsuits, accusations of illegal short selling and counter-charges of fraudulent p & d.

It's all very complex, too complex for anyone to draw a valid conclusion, in my opinion. So perhaps it's best to view this as a simple trade on speculation, as David has presented it. At the same time, those who may be tempted to go beyond the simple trade David recommends should verse themselves thoroughly in Ampligen's checkered history. There is a rich archive of "pro" and "con" data at the National CFIDS Organization's website, including testimony of CFIDS patients who have participated in trials.

http://www.cfs-news.org/ampligen.htm

Even if I weren't planning a buy tomorrow, I'd still find this fascinating reading. Several dead links there, though, as this is an old page -- Ampligen has been around for a very long time.

Another link I'd recommend, very negative:

http://www.ncf-net.org/forum/ampligeninPink.htm

Its use for AIDS and CFIDS is permitted only in Canada at this time, and in Hemispherx's continuing trials.

One final link. This one could be viewed as positive or negative; its a letter from the FDA demanding that HEB alter its website. The information they were required to delete, if factual, is very positive

http://www.fda.gov/cder/warn/oct98/7146.pdf

I'll also add here that Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient as of 3-Oct-05 is better than 94.4% of CGQ Universe companies [that means compared to all rated companies] and 85.7% of Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology companies.

Not an infallible indicator, but reassuring nonetheless.

What about NVAX David?

I'll buy that too, let me write a recommendation  ;)

Bought HEB @ $2.27 for the 3 Stocks On Fire Portfolio.

Another good call.  Bought @ $2.14 on morning dip (I was shooting for the $2.04 bottom, but it  moved up too fast).

Thanks guys!

Here's more news update on Avian bird flu:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051006/ap_on_he_me/us_avian_flu;_ylt=Ah0JuKdkNWCP6.4LaA3j5iCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3NTE-

New 52 week high intraday!

Broke 2.40 but didn't hold midday.

And just found Insiders BUYING :)  Always good news.

ALSO, Liability protection for any compnay and GAURENTEED cash stream for any company developing Avian Flu vaccine.  Bill in 'holding' pattern (Sen. Gregg). 

But considering what Bush recently said, the passing of the bill could be very huge for any company involved with Bird Flu vaccines.

October 6, 2005

By Val Brickates Kennedy, MarketWatch

Meanwhile, the U.S. government is stockpiling vast amounts of antiviral medications to treat the flu, particularly Glaxo's Relenza and Roche's Tamiflu. In addition, the Senate recently approved a measure to add $4 billion to the budget for the purchase of vaccines and medicines to treat avian flu.

The connection:

"Another name to consider is Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB). Roche is the big name in the space with its Tamiflu vaccine. However, HEB recently announced that an independent preclinical study showed that the co's Ampligen vaccine enhances the effectiveness of Tamiflu against the Avian flu. HEB recently increased the capacity of its facility in NJ to manufacture Ampligen."

Thanks for posting interesting info Live Life  :)

The good thing about this speculation on the Avian Flu possible pandemic (I hope nothing happens) is that the talk has gone to such an high level that it doesn't matter if the Flu indeed happens or not, governments and individuals around the world will be looking to buy a lot of these vaccines and antidotes in the coming months. Just in case.

I've read in an article France and the UK have medicine for 25% of their population. The US has only 1% and the Southeast Asia countries have even less than that but are doing whatever they can to build stockpiles (that's part of the reason why SVA is such an attractive investment).

Pressure will mount on the FDA to approve Ampligen for commercial purposes, fast. Nobody would excuse the FDA not to do that if the pandemic really gets going. The risk is too high now, I'm sure Ampligen will be approved soon and that will make the shares sky rocket !

Recent buying from insiders and the company increasing production capacity tells me the thing is just about to happen.

So I'll continue holding HEB.

read about this, looks like it made its move already, too late

Here's a comprehensive article link on Avian bird flu by TIME ASIA.  It talks about the potential deaths (millions to billions) if the virus mutates:

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501050926-1106457,00.html

Tell that to David.   ;D

Falling like a rock.

Buy more or sell?

IMO  These stocks (HEB, VICL, NVAX and SVA) are in the infant stage of a mania.  Scientists, health officials and world leaders.  I can't watch CNN or MSNBC for 30 minutes at night without mention of the Bird Flu.

If the major vaccine pharma companies keep getting huge orders, then some of the backlog will spill over to micro-companies (possibly).

I am confident that Bush's meeting with top vaccine producers will be a catalyst for additional mania in the investment community.  I am long and strong on this group, until proved otherwise.  Reminds me of nano-tech rally of December 2003, when $4 Billion bill passed for nano-tech research funding.

Just my take on things,
poorman1

Quote from: danman3459 on October 07, 2005, 11:23:42 AM
Falling like a rock.

Buy more or sell?

HEB has been a sleeping baby compared to SVA!  Talk about falling like a rock!  Wow!  :o

President Bush will host Avian Flu conference at 2PM EST.

I found this post in one of the MB this morning:

"Shares of "Pandemic Summit" Names Advance [delayed]
09:43 a.m. 10/07/2005 Provided by Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN. "

Interestingly, it appears to me that HEB is further along in its anti-Avian Flu trials than some of the big pharma companies that were invited to the White House on Friday. Indeed, I spoke to investor relations at HEB on Friday, and she mentioned that their Ampligen product (effective against not only the avian flu, but also against chronic fatigue syndrome -- just another reason to like this small speculative company) has already undergone many successful safety tests.  Additionally, the company has applied for fast track approval with the FDA, and is expecting an answer any day.  The bottom line is that with the incredible need for vaccines should the outbreak reach pandemic levels, even small companies like HEB, NVAX, and VICL will likely benefit.

Recent article:

Ampligen enhances the effectiveness of Tamiflu against Avian influenza 
Virus Weekly via NewsEdge Corporation :. 
2005 OCT 4 - (NewsRx.com) -- Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc., (HEB) reported two new preclinical studies on double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), including Ampligen, one of its flagship experimental immunomodulators. 

Both preclinical studies suggest a new, and potentially pivotal, role of dsRNA therapeutics in improving the efficacy of the present standards of care in both influenza prevention and treatment of acute disease. 

The first preclinical report, conducted by research affiliates of the National Institutes of Health at Utah State University, compared the relative protection conveyed by Tamiflu (oseltamivir, Roche) and Ampligen (dsRNA, Hemispherx), alone and in combination against the Avian flu virus (H5N1).  Cell destruction was measured in vitro using different drug combinations. 

Both drugs, given alone, were effective in inhibiting cell destruction by avian influenza, but viral "suppression with the combination was greater than either drug alone." The researchers reported, in summary; "The overall assessment is that there was improvement in cell protection when Ampligen was combined with oseltamivir carboxylate" (Tamiflu).  Further immediate experimental tests are planned. 

At present, a narrow window of opportunity (approximately 48 hours) exists for effective utilization of Tamiflu after exposure to influenza.  By providing a new mechanism of inhibition of avian flu, (i.e.  immunologic/host defensive immune cascades), Ampligen, an experimental immunotherapeutic, may afford a new approach to help combat influenza virus. 

Double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), such as Ampligen, are also specific inducers of broad-spectrum antiviral/immune response.  Recently, Japanese researchers ( Journal of Virology page 2910, 2005) have also found that dsRNA's increase the effectiveness of influenza vaccine by more than 300% and may also convey "cross-protection ability against variant viruses" (mutated strains of influenza virus).  Ampligen recently completed phase III testing in the chronic disease, chronic fatigue syndrome. 

Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed in a letter to shareholders that it has increased the capacity of its facility in New Brunswick, New Jersey, to manufacture Ampligen, as well as advancements in the application of Alferon LDO for potential treatment of Avian influenza. 

This article was prepared by Virus Weekly editors from staff and other reports.  Copyright 2005, Virus Weekly via NewsRx.com. 

<<Virus Weekly -- 10/05/05>>. 



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: Virus Weekly via NewsRx.com  Indexing Date: 05/10/2005
Harvested Date: Oct 4 2005 10:15AM     

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Similar documents to:  Ampligen enhances the effectiveness of Tamiflu against Avian influenza 
More news items from:  Virus Weekly via NewsRx.com 
Repeat this search:  heb  Edit search  New search 

Here I am with the wet blanket again, but too much bulishness can be dangerous to your financial health!

In 2002, patients in the CFIDS trial were charged $200 per dose for twice-weekly doses.

http://www.immunesupport.com/library/showarticle.cfm/ID/3315/

Mary Schweitzer kept an online journal of her successful CFIDS treatment on Ampligen in 1999. The total cost for her was $40,000, and her twice-weekly infusions took a half-hour each to be administered.

http://www.cfids-me.org/marys/ampdiaries.html

For Ampligen to be a meaningful answer to bird-flu, it needs to be much cheaper and more easily administered. I don't know what progress has been made on these fronts.

Quote from: robt on October 09, 2005, 10:36:06 AM
Here I am with the wet blanket again, but too much bulishness can be dangerous to your financial health!

In 2002, patients in the CFIDS trial were charged $200 per dose for twice-weekly doses.

http://www.immunesupport.com/library/showarticle.cfm/ID/3315/

Mary Schweitzer kept an online journal of her successful CFIDS treatment on Ampligen in 1999. The total cost for her was $40,000, and her twice-weekly infusions took a half-hour each to be administered.

http://www.cfids-me.org/marys/ampdiaries.html

For Ampligen to be a meaningful answer to bird-flu, it needs to be much cheaper and more easily administered. I don't know what progress has been made on these fronts.

First, I would recommend going back and looking at some of the more recent press releases from the company on the development of Ampligen, including a recent release on the expansion of their manufacturing facility for the making of Ampligen (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050901/15685.html?.v=1).  The relatively dated links you refer to are for costs during the clinical trial phase, before the drug is mass produced.  Of course, when a drug is mass produced, the costs will be contained.  Second, and more important during the near term with the pandemic threat, the U.S. Government is going to spend somewhere between $4 to $6 BILLION on the mass production of a vaccine.  So, while the costs will be contained during mass production, I don't think the government is going to be an overly frugal shopper -- they need quick access to A LOT of effective Avian Flu vaccines.

Investing in speculative plays is not for everyone, but, as David points out, NVAX, HEB, and VICL are theme stocks that are currently in play, and, I believe, will continue to be during the evolution of the Avian Flu story.  I am currently invested in all three.

I would like to clarify to those that are interested.

NVAX produces the vaccine, but HEB produces the treatment.

To my knowledge, $4+ Billion allocated is for vaccine stockpiling, which is only effective if the virus DOESN'T mutate.  The article I posted earlier addresses the concern for virus mutation, which may be already happening.  This morning's newspaper estimates that if virus mutates and goes human-to-human instead of current animal-to-human, deaths in US alone will be 1.9+ million in 12-18 months.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051009/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic

I am not aware of any money allocated for treatment.

Like David mentioned already, HEB and NVAX should be good Avian plays.

FYI.

Quote from: Stocksquire on October 09, 2005, 11:17:04 AM

First, I would recommend going back and looking at some of the more recent press releases from the company on the development of Ampligen, including a recent release on the expansion of their manufacturing facility for the making of Ampligen (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050901/15685.html?.v=1).  The relatively dated links you refer to are for costs during the clinical trial phase, before the drug is mass produced.

The reason some links are old is that these tests have been conducted for years, and the drug is still not approved. Use has been permitted in Canada for nearly a decade, so the 2002 price cited is relatively recent; if any economies of scale entered the picture through Canadian use, these would surely be reflected by that year.

The relatively small Canadian market may not have spurred true economies of scale -- but if that is the case, how quickly can manufacturing capacity be placed online? In the case of a medication as complex as this one -- a modified RNA molecule -- I think a year is a very conservative guess. This presents another obstacle to any usefulness of Ampligen in the near term.

Quote
Of course, when a drug is mass produced, the costs will be contained.  Second, and more important during the near term with the pandemic threat, the U.S. Government is going to spend somewhere between $4 to $6 BILLION on the mass production of a vaccine.  So, while the costs will be contained during mass production, I don't think the government is going to be an overly frugal shopper -- they need quick access to A LOT of effective Avian Flu vaccines.

An important distinction needs to be made, in that Ampligen and Alferon are antiviral treatments, not vaccines. In conjunction with Tamiflu, Ampligen is proposed as an adjuvant, or "enhancer." Again, not a vaccine. There's some question as to whether such drugs will automatically qualify for these vaccine-earmarked billions.

I am not arguing against the speculative trade proposition David has put forth. I am only pointing out certain reasons why HEB, among these picks, is most likely to drop whatever gains it makes as bird flu hype gives way to bird flu realities.

The extreme bull view of HEB may ultimately prove correct, especially in the case of an actual, high-profile outbreak. But it is important to consider what factors may prevent that from being the case.

Excellent points and views around HEB, congratulations  :)

My take on the company is as follows:

1) Ampligen will probably be approved by the FDA soon;
2) The drug serves as a treatment to the Bird Flu virus but its primarily focus is on the treatment of the chronic fatigue syndrome;
3) The stock recently made a breakout of a resistance zone, which value is $1.96;
4) Now it is pulling back some of those gains.

I've read your analysis and enjoyed them much, but reading them doesn't tell me if I should buy or sell. In fact, I'm pretty sure that I can read everything available about HEB and still I wouldn't know if I should hold or sell at this point.

So I have to trust the market, on an objective way, to know what to do. I figure that the recent breakout shouldn't be a false one if HEB is to continue with a bullish trend. It will be false if we ever get a close below $1.96.

So my plan is easy:

1) Hold the stock for the medium term (the flu season is coming  :'()
2) Sell if HEB is set to close below $1.96. If that were to happen it would mean the market doesn't agree that this is a good speculative play, and the market always knows better.

Hemispherx Biopharma Signs Letter of Intent with HollisterStier Laboratories LLC for the Production of Ampligen(R)
Business Wire - October 10, 2005 08:30

PHILADELPHIA, Oct 10, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with HollisterStier Laboratories of Spokane, Washington, for the contract manufacturing of Hemispherx's experimental drug, Ampligen(R). The achievement of the initial objectives described in the LOI, in combination with the Polymer production facility under construction in New Brunswick, N.J., will enable Hemispherx to manufacture the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) for approximately 10,000 doses of Ampligen(R) per week. Based on the LOI, HollisterStier Contract Manufacturing has agreed to fill the Ampligen(R) API from Hemispherx. Production for significantly larger quantities of product are planned thereafter. Hemispherx has already commenced the process of transferring manufacturing technology to HollisterStier.

Doug Hulse, Chief Operating Officer and President commented, "We are pleased to be working with HollisterStier, a highly professional group who can support the full commercialization of Ampligen(R) upon FDA approval. We selected this group from a qualified pool of manufacturers and look forward to executing our manufacturing strategy with them."

Anthony Bonanzino, President and CEO of HollisterStier noted, "The new relationship with Hemispherx Biopharma represents an exciting addition to our well established client portfolio. We are pleased with the Hemispherx decision, and strongly believe the Hemispherx manufacturing strategy is an excellent match to HollisterStier's core competencies."

Hemispherx recently completed Phase III testing of Ampligen(R) for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS).

About Hemispherx Biopharma

Hemispherx Biopharma, based in Philadelphia, is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the manufacture and clinical development of new drug entities for treatment of viral and immune-based chronic disorders. Hemispherx's flagship products include Alferon and the experimental immunotherapeutics/antivirals Ampligen(R) and Oragens(TM). Alferon is approved for a category of STD infection, and Ampligen(R) and Oragens(TM) represent experimental nucleic acids being developed for globally important chronic viral diseases and disorders of the immune system including HPV, HIV, CFS and Hepatitis. Hemispherx's platform technology includes large and small agent components for potential treatment of various chronic viral infections. Hemispherx has in excess of 140 patents comprising its core intellectual property estate, a fully commercialized product (Alferon N) and GMP certified manufacturing facilities for its novel pharma products. For more information please visit www.hemispherx.net

About HollisterStier

HollisterStier Contract Manufacturing provides a complete range of services to support the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries. The company has specialized competencies essential for compounding and filling sterile products. Outsourcing services include vial and syringe filling, as well as commercial and clinical scale capabilities for lyophilization. HollisterStier Laboratories LLC is privately held and located in Spokane, Washington. For more information go to fill.hollisterstier.com.

I sold my position in HEB with a nice gain (I bought in at $2.14) and bought NVAX for faster gains this week.

I plan on buying back HEB when rebound of this pullback is evident.

Good trading!

Thanks for posting the news aussietrader  :)

As it happens many times, the news didn't help the stock. It opened too high because of the news and then short term profit taking kicked in.

Not a problem, there was no damage to the technical bullish setup. It feels like the stock is consolidating for another leg up, like the other stocks on the Avian Flu group.

But, there maybe be some losers on this field too. I want to lose small on the losers and win big on the winners, that's why I have 4 Avian Flu plays instead of just one or two, I could miss the big winner (as I'm sure there will be at least one - but maybe there's a speculative tide to lift all stocks on this specific group).

The future is still not clear for HEB, I will take a loss if the stock is set to close below $1.96. In the meantime I will continue holding and waiting for a new bullish move.

While other vaccine stocks run well, HEB will have another run soon.

I bought it this morning at support of $2.06.

It got to what should be support and so far a little bounce

http://tinyurl.com/9vkv3

It was pretty difficult to decide whether to stop out at close or not .. the bid ask was on either side of 1.96..

If my info is correct, it closed at 1.93!?  ::)

Hmmm...

Didn't like todays movement - very strange considering how much other bird flu stocks were up.  Could this be telling us something??  I will hold for now, and it looks like we got a little AH rally, but seems a bit fishy when SVA VICL and BCRX all ripped hard today  :-\

We'll see tomorrow

I agree with you scottish i wasn't liking the price action today at as well, but then again who would, unless someone was shorting. It was strange to see all the other bird plays go up big today such as vicl and sva, yet the lower prices ones stayed in the shallows. I just bought in HEB yesterday and believe its too early for me to sell. My stop loss point is a close below 1.92 wich was the low for todays price action, as well it is a penny above a 61.8% fibbonacci retracement. And yes there was a nice after hours rally with HEB's price action  back up to 2.00 currently. Good luck to everyone and myself who decided to continue to hold this one after todays ugly retracement. With so much hype in the flu market right now, I just can't see this one not going up. Guess, we'll just have to wait and see.

-fousc

Well you guys have said it all- not much to add - I still hold my HEB, although David should have sold based on his rule. I am waiting to hear. Did not look at the AH but will. At one point HEB made a nice upwards move but did not last.

even uglier was MEMY, which also broke down below David's threshold of 2.5. I kicked most of my shares out in the 2.40 area!!

I will see how the action is in the am, and then decide what to do. Thank God for SVA to make up for this one.

Defenderyou

Support 1.87  Triple 10

I am not selling unless it closes below this number

I really don't know why HEB went down so hard yesterday, given that other Bird Flu plays did well enough. Perhaps robt is right and Ampligen won't be available fast enough for the company to profit from the Avian Flu mania (we hops it's just that), or the product's price is way too high.

I don't know, but I always knew there would be losers on this field, and the market is telling HEB won't participate.

Yesterday it wasn't clear enough for me to sell, I didn't know if the close would be above or below $1.96, so I didn't sell. But I know now that it was, so I'll sell around today's open, according to my previously made plan.

I wish good luck for all of you that will continue holding !

I've brought up a lot of ngatives on HEB, but I don't think most ofthese truly matter in terms of market sentiment. BCRX, for instance, is riddled with flaws as well, but is doing great.

If I were to guess what is really leaving it behind, I'd say it's two things:

1. Ampligen has been around for a long time, and Hemispherx has tried to commercialize it repeatedly, with very little success. It has a reputation to surmount, and Hemispherx's recasting of the drug as an answer to bird flu looks like opportunism.

2. Alone among these drugs, it is an ant-viral treatment rather than a vaccine, and allegedly a "booster" that may help vaccines to work. When governments go about stockpiling vaccines, are they likely to stockpile "booster" drugs as well? Even assuming that research about the Ampligen-Tamiflu cocktail is correct, this sort of creative thinking is not generally expected from governments.

There's no way to know, of course, but I think these two factors have held HEB back.

The day may come when HEB explodes out of these constraints, and it may be worth holding on the assumption that such a day will come sooner rather than later.

A strong positive for HEB is that its efficacy will not be less if the virus mutates -- as it would have to do for a serious outbreak to occur (currently known strains communicate bird-to-human only). Vaccines are specifically targeted, and any mutation means less efficacy for them, so vaccine stockpiles are certain to lose value with passing time. This fact hasn't penetrated market consciousness.

Funny thing - I too could not tell where it was to close so I too did nothing yet; here is where I may differ from you - I will watch HEB first and then sell on a rebound if I can, unless it quickly recovers to over 2.10. Will let you know later this am

Defenderyou

Thanks David

Bought HEB at 1.83.  The .618% retracement of the rally from 1.36 to 2.57 is 1.82, which is this morning's low so far.

I bought it yesterday at $2.04 and it went up to $2.24 then slipped. I sold it at $2.18 and kept my small profit - 3k shares for about $400.

That is the kind of stocks you have to be very careful, keep close eye all the time.

Now I may take some rest (my portfolion does not allow me to short stocks) and wait for the bottom of tech stocks (may be at the end of this month) to arrive.

Actually the semi earnings so far are quite good such as AMD, MU, ATYT, etc.

Warnings from XLNX, SGTL, SWKS.

I hope the semi index goes down to 380 again.

Hey Melf Elf,

Well I think you got 2 very good purchases there today - as you know, am hanging in long on both of them.  ;)

By the way, I still haven't sold out of EGHT, hopefully we'll see a little rebound this afternoon, and I can get a better sell position.  I think I may be done on that one though  :-[

What a horrible day today for HEB. As well price action fell another .08 to 1.70 in after hours trading. I still have a posistion in this one as well at 2.20. Im debating whether or not to sell at the market open tomorrow.  ??? I suppose i will since my trading plan was to sell on a close below 1.92.

-fousc

If this gaps down tomorrow to $1.7, i'm all over it.  Avian flu media coverage is not going away.  Granted this is a momo sector play, but the hype alone should merit another bounce back over $2.  Depending on trader momo and the right news, I could easily see this one run to $3.

Buying at $1.7 presents decent risk/reward.

Quote from: bula on October 12, 2005, 10:58:53 PM
If this gaps down tomorrow to $1.7, i'm all over it.  Avian flu media coverage is not going away.  Granted this is a momo sector play, but the hype alone should merit another bounce back over $2.  Depending on trader momo and the right news, I could easily see this one run to $3.

Buying at $1.7 presents decent risk/reward.

That was my thinking, too, Bula.  If the 50/200 DMAs (1.62 - 1.65) don't provide support, though, I'll sell.

Thanks for your posts, I'm just leaving an updated chart of HEB, an incredible tough break. The Bear is haunting every stock  :P

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 12, 2005, 09:59:19 AM
Bought HEB at 1.83.  The .618% retracement of the rally from 1.36 to 2.57 is 1.82, which is this morning's low so far.

Sold HEB at 1.96.  Gain: 7.1%

I expected HEB to hold yesterday near my entry at the .618% retracement level, then rally 10% to near-term resistance at 2.00.  Instead, it closed lower at 1.78, then rallied 10%+ today, so I shaved my expectation.

Well done Melf.   Good trading!

I'm gonna hold it and trail it with a stop.  I like that it continues to press the hod even as other plays in the sector have retraced.  A nice sign of relative strength.  Personally I think these plays are just starting.  I have a bad feeling that this virus will spread quickly and will not be contained.  The media loves to hype bad news anyway (making it worse than it really is) so with the nice retracement of HEB back to close to last weeks levels, I like the potential to go much higher from here. 

Bula

Quote from: bula on October 13, 2005, 12:41:17 PM
I'm gonna hold it and trail it with a stop.

Thanks, Bula.  That sounds like a plan, huh?

QuoteI like that it continues to press the hod even as other plays in the sector have retraced.  A nice sign of relative strength. 

Yeah, SVA went to 6.65 and now is in the red at 6.09. How's that for volatility?!

Quote  I have a bad feeling that this virus will spread quickly and will not be contained.  The media loves to hype bad news anyway (making it worse than it really is) so with the nice retracement of HEB back to close to last weeks levels, I like the potential to go much higher from here. 

I sure hope they can contain this thing, but as Michael (Mike) said on another thread, the market trades alot on perception, and the extent of this virus is going to be an unknown factor for awhile, so these stocks likely will have some more rallies, like today.

Good luck, Bula!

HEB's price action made a nice rebound to after the huge retracement. Hopefully this is the beginning of higher prices yet to come again. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. NVAX also made a nice rebound today. Makes me sleep better at night  :D

-fousc

$2.17 and continuing to climb with a nice slow and steady pace.  Very nice hold thus far.  With the virus reaching Europe this past week, the media attention is getting pretty fierce.  This virus should be in the news for weeks making the avian flu plays great swing trades at a minimum.  HEB should at least test the chart resistance that formed at $2.3 after the runup last week.  Whether it can break that remains to be seen.  But if it does, a breakout to new highs (over last week's $2.58) should occur.

Very Bulllish,
Bula

Tuesday, October 18th is expected to be a huge event for the vaccine producing community.  From what I have been hearing, is that a U.S. "Flu Czar" is to be announced, along with how much of the $4 Billion appropriation is to be allocated.

Also, I heard a rumor that Steve Cohen's - SAC Capital Mgmt is buying chunks of NVAX.  The rumor originated that institutional purchases found via Bloomberg service, disclosed trades from the firm.

Having recommended NFLX for quite some time, the trading activity of NFLX was pretty wild on the way up from $11.  Apparently, Cohen's style is to place incongruent trades to disguise the true intentions of the firm.  eg.  taking out all stop losses.  Keep this in mind, if you see any huge short-lived dips.

Good Luck,
poorman1

Hello from the NVAX board.   :)

I wanted to post this here for FYI, since it may affect HEB if Tamiflu is found to be ineffective against Avian virus.  Any thoughts?

News Update - Avian virus now showing resistance to Tamiflu.
 
10/15/2005 07:09:20 AM EDT
Daily Post


ATTEMPTS to control the deadly bird flu could be helping to create a drug resistant form of the virus, new research suggested last night.

Scientists identified a strain of the H5N1 virus in Vietnam resistant to Tamiflu, the drug being stockpiled to fight any outbreak in the UK.

It was found in a Vietnamese girl who was put on a course of preventative treatment with Tamiflu for four days in February.

Medics fear she may be one of the first H5N1 victims to acquire the virus through person-to-person transmission The British government does not plan to offer Tamiflu, one of a class of drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors, to healthy people as a precaution.

But prophylactic (taken as a preventative measure) use of Tamiflu was part of the control measures being adopted in Asian hotspots where about 60 people died from the virus.

The new findings, due to be published in the journal Nature next week, suggest it may be contributing to the emergence of drug resistance.

Viruses and bacteria can become resistant if the treatment used against them was too weak.

Up to now the virus has only been known to pass from birds to humans. At least one other case of transmission between humans has been suspected, but not confirmed.

Health experts fear that if the virus mutates into a form that transmits easily between people it could trigger a global pandemic claiming millions of lives.

A team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, from the University of Tokyo in Japan, looked at 10 viral clones from the girl and found six were highly resistant to Tamiflu.

Three others were slightly resistant and one was "highly sensitive".

However even the highly resistant virus did succumb to another drug, zanamivir - marketed as Relenza - which has been suggested as an alternative bird flu treatment but so far not been widely adopted.

A Department of Health spokeswoman said there were no current plans to administer it prophylactically either to members of the public or health workers

Bird Flu momo continuing in full force.  HEB pressing $2.20 and looks to make a run to the $2.30 resistance point today.    BCRX and NVAX also looking to run a bit as well.  But based on recent highs, HEB has the most catching up to do.  I'm loving this buy more and more. 

Quote from: bula on October 17, 2005, 09:56:12 AM
Bird Flu momo continuing in full force.  HEB pressing $2.20 and looks to make a run to the $2.30 resistance point today. 

It's now at 2.32.  

Quote
I'm loving this buy more and more. 

I can see why!  ;D  Nice call on the bird flus, Bula.  Applause.

Go HEB and NVAX!

Sold about 80% position at $2.38.    Nice trade to start the new week.  Now setting my focus on Wilma stocks.

poorman that's just nasty  >:D

bula - congrats at getting such a good fill - nice little profit to start the week  ;D

Happy trading all :D

up 20,59% on record volume!!! :o

Can someone give a technical update? thx

Haha poorman thats just disturbing.

Anyways, Awsome day for HEB as well as most of the other bird flu plays.
Heres todays chart.

-fousc

Well looks like today was a major bird flu day all round, and HEB reaped a healthy gain  ;D

while others have moved well (and continue to do so - SVA for example!)  HEB was pulling back most of last week, but got its turn to run...  in fact 3 last 3 sessions have shown a really nice move, which I hope should have more room tomorrow - ideally we want to see it take out the recent high of 2.57 and hold it.  With more bird flu news this week, things could really take off.

Technically, HEB pulled well away from the ascending trendline, and this pattern may have formed a little symmetrical triangle breakout, which would have a target of $3.07 or so.  The MACD is looking quite bullish and is pulling away from its signal line once again, but I would just be a little careful and watch the RSI as it moves into overbought territory - we want to see it push new highs tomorrow, otherwise we may see a pullback to test the new ascending trendline, which right now stands at 1.90 (i.e. not pretty).  Right now I want to see it hold above 2.27, which was the highest previous close, but if I think it's peaked, I may sell quite quickly, as there is still a lot of volatility in this stock.

But great movement today on the whole - nothing like watching a solid breakout on high volume ;D ;D ;D

HEB is mine, I found it and I want it back !

My hands were weak and I was shake out of this Bird Flu play. But now reports came out saying that Tamiflu isn't effective when the virus goes from man to man, so Ampligen might help !

I feel the speculation on this Bird Flu group is just starting, and there will be huge amounts of people and money rushing into these stocks. A speculative bubble may indeed develop on this specific group of stocks.

I'm a speculator, I must be in.

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

Quote from: LiveLife on October 19, 2005, 02:26:29 AM
My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

I believe your theory is correct LiveLife !

Just notice the volume on this second attempt at new highs - its much higher ! This means more money is involved this time to take the stock price to a higher level. More money means more power, so the breakout is almost inevitable.

A breakout of $2.57 on close gives me a short term technical target of $3.36. Stocks do not go up in a straight line and traders are nervous as LiveLife says. But since reports came out saying that Tamiflu isn't effective when the virus goes from man to man (because it mutates), speculation has started that Ampligen will indeed be needed Ampligen (R) Enhances the Effectiveness of Tamiflu Against Avian Influenza; Second Independent Preclinical Study Confirms dsRNA Increases Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=17316&guid=%7B25294F14%2D0BB0%2D4287%2D9996%2D70111043C9E6%7D&symb=) .

Ampligen has been around looking for approval for many years. Perhaps the Avian Flu need will be the catalyst for the FDA to approve this fast. The news from the company saying it is expanding production capacity for Ampligen is encouraging:

Hemispherx Biopharma Signs Letter of Intent with HollisterStier Laboratories LLC for the Production of Ampligen(R) (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B62461C50%2D81C4%2D478F%2D938D%2D64DAF9FE2A4A%7D)

Hemispherx Biopharma Expands Manufacturing Facility for Production of Ampligen(R); Status of clinical trial advancements for Alferon LDO and manufacturing programs updated in stockholder letter (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1C462B73%2D6EEF%2D4610%2DA1A2%2DB716009DB004%7D)

Everything is ready for the long awaited news of Ampligen coming to the commercial drug market. The drug isn't effective just against the avian flu, its more important use is the fight against fatigue. Yesterday there was a little piece of news that was unnoticed I believe

Hemispherx Biopharma details Ampligen study data (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=&dateid=38278.3777430556-823930888)

Anyway, enough of news, the chart says «buy/hold HEB».

Here is why HEB may be one of the best Avian Bird Flu speculative plays out there:

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Remember, Ampligen has already completed Phase III testing -- along with safety testing -- for treat of chronic fatigue syndrome.

I'll post this here too, courtesy of stocksquire:

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Article from Roche's UK tamiflu website - suggests they may start promoting Tamiflu/Ampligen combined treatment - could get governments interested in Ampligen too ;)

Good Morning !

Thanks ScottishTrader (and stocksquire), it looks like good news ;)

David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on HEB.

I'll just post an updated chart.

Just to clarify, I'm sure you meant HEB...chart is correct.

Thanks, Jody.

Quote from: 422fwhp on October 20, 2005, 09:00:36 AM
Just to clarify, I'm sure you meant HEB...chart is correct.

Thanks, Jody.

Thanks Jody ;)

Thats right, its correct now.

FYI  ;D
HEB: Short Interest UP 129.7% to 890.6K in Oct 2005
Thursday , October 20, 2005 16:16 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) INCREASED 129.7% to 890,572 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.

SYMBOL     SEPTEMBER         OCTOBER      CHANGE     %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
HEB              387,758         890,572        +502,814      +129.67%           1

Based on HEB's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,278,050, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Thanks la-onda, the more shorts, the better, since they will add to natural demand as they buy to cover those shorts.

I'm sure Ampligen will be approved for commercial purposes by the FDA in the near future. That will make HEB stock jump ! So, regardless of Bird Flu, HEB has speculative power behind it. With just $118.77M in market cap I think this is a valid play and I will continue holding it without a doubt.

I wasn't expecting Friday's break on HEB, I must confess. But I know from my past experience trading HEB that it is an hard stock to trade (stocks have personality too), giving false short term technical signals.

So I can't trust minor technical developments for hold/sell decisions on HEB (I already did that mistake once). I need to give the stock a little more room to operate.

Probably TL1 is a good barometer, tomorrow it will be at $2.01, rising $0.031 per trading day.

david...or anyone ele following this - whats say with the chart...?

thanks  :)

HEB running!!!
Can someone give some TA, next resistance?

I think we just hit it - resistance around 2.66.  Steadying itself at present, BBs are starting to widen to the downside - looks like it may pull back a little from here.  But it could easily push on forward a little later once it has consolidated this quite crazy morning's gain!!

well sold last week at 2.24.  but today just realized might be mistake due that avian flu still in the news so rebought today in the 2.60's.  Hopefully I am right and will still run on potential of tamiflu other news.

Careful with this one folks. Could see a correction as 3.10 resistance is touched...

Anyone care to comment on relationship /  similarity / differences between NVAX and HEB?  Looks like HEB is ready and starting to do what NVAX has started a week ago.

Well I was certainly wrong on my last post ;D  What a day!!!  The 3SOF leaderboard looks beautiful, and very nice to see our first double on the main board in a while - even our hallowed VPHM didn't get there (well at least not while David traded it).

As far as HEB is concerned, I am genuinely hoping that this was just a taste of what's to come - the AH board is currently showing 3.25, which would be very nice if it held, but I would watch for a pullback tomorrow, at least to fill that gap if it still exists in the morning - then again, it could just be following NVAX's coat-tails and blow up from there - have a look at what HEB did last time it broke 3.00  ;). 

As far as upcoming resistance levels, I would keep a close eye  out for 3.00, 3.25-3.27, 375-3.80 and 4.20, at least as far as I can tell from the chart.  The action at 3.00 was heavy - I saw quite a few 10,000+ blocks going through in short succession, looked like someone was trying to keep it down there, and succeeded during market hours at least.

Here's looking forward to tomorrow  ;D ;D ;D  (just keep a little eye out for that pull back, or keep your stops rolling....)

Thanks for your analysis ScottishTrader  :) (I think the after hours close was $2.96, so no gap up, which is good for bullish continuation)

Quote from: David Randolph on October 23, 2005, 09:11:16 PM
I wasn't expecting Friday's break on HEB, I must confess. But I know from my past experience trading HEB that it is an hard stock to trade (stocks have personality too), giving false short term technical signals.

So I can't trust minor technical developments for hold/sell decisions on HEB (I already did that mistake once). I need to give the stock a little more room to operate.

I was right in giving some more room to HEB. Yesterday's breakout was certainly a legit one. I see price, momentum and volume rising. Anyone selling a stock with a technical pattern like this, although maybe be right on a particular occasion, doesn't have much experience trading and will not achieve superior results.

Close your eyes and hold is the name of the game with these Bird Flu plays. The speculation just began, and you know what pure speculation can do to a stock - it may rise several fold and then fall back again to prior levels, not a problem, I've seen it many many times and will surely see it again.

I hope my profits grow on HEB. I can't sell now or soon I would be out of job  ;D

news update:

Ampligen(R) Studies on Combinational Treatments Against Avian Influenza are Extended
Wednesday October 26, 10:22 am ET
Tamiflu Resistant Strains are Reported in Asia

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 26, 2005--Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB - News) has extended a preclinical report conducted by research affiliates of the National Institutes of Health at Utah State University to examine potential therapeutic synergies with more than 10 different drug combinations. The ongoing research is comparing the relative protection conveyed by Tamiflu (oseltamivir, Roche) and Ampligen® (dsRNA, Hemispherx), alone and in combination, against the avian flu virus (H5N1).

True therapeutic synergy is defined by mathematical equations which indicate that the therapeutic effect observed is in fact greater than the expected arithmetic sum of the two drugs working independently, and is referred to by pharmacologists as the "Chou/Talalay" equations developed at Johns Hopkins University. True therapeutic synergy has now been observed in the interaction between Ampligen® and Tamiflu in the inhibition of the Avian influenza virus.

Hemispherx recently reported new data on preclinical studies on double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), including Ampligen®, one of its flagship experimental immunomodulators. These studies suggest a new, and potentially pivotal, role of dsRNA therapeutics in improving the efficacy of the present standards of care in both influenza prevention and treatment of acute disease.

The studies are attracting growing attention with the persistence of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in many Asian countries and their ability to cause fatal infections in humans. Concerns throughout the Region have risen with the discovery of a Tamiflu resistant strain of the virus. NATURE (14 October 2005), a respected science journal, reported that on February 27, 2005 an H5N1 influenza virus, A/Hanoi/30408/2005, was isolated from a 14 year old Vietnamese girl (patient 1) who had received a prophylactic dose of Tamiflu (oseltamivir). Although further investigation is needed, analysis of the isolated virus revealed two disturbing possibilities; that the virus could have been transmitted to the girl from her brother and that the virus was developing a resistance to Tamiflu. Although the findings were based on a single patient, the authors, in their conclusion, recommend the stockpiling of alternatives to Tamiflu. Hemispherx's Ampligen® is emerging as one of the more promising experimental alternatives.

In antimicrobial (antibacterial) therapy, which is the best studied clinical model, synergistic drug combinations may result in curative conditions/outcomes, often not observed when the single drugs are given alone. In the case of avian influenza where global drug supplies are presumptively in very limited supply relative to potential needs, therapeutic synergistic combinations could not only affect the disease outcome, but also the number of individuals able to access therapies. Cell destruction was measured in vitro using different drug combinations.

At present, a narrow window of opportunity (approximately 48 hours) exists for effective utilization of Tamiflu after exposure to influenza. By providing a new mechanism of inhibition of avian flu, (i.e. immunologic/host defensive immune cascades), Ampligen®, an experimental immunotherapeutic, may also afford a new time interval to help combat the influenza virus.

Recently, double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), such as Ampligen®, are also specific inducers of broad-spectrum antiviral/immune response. As noted in the Company's announcement of September 6, 2005, Japanese researchers have also found that dsRNAs increase the effectiveness of influenza vaccine by more than 300% and may also convey "cross-protection ability against variant viruses" (mutated strains of influenza virus).

Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed they entered into a collaboration with HollisterStier Laboratories of Spokane, Washington, for the contract manufacturing of Hemispherx's experimental drug, Ampligen®. The achievement of the initial objectives, in combination with the Polymer production facility under construction in New Brunswick, N.J., will enable Hemispherx to significantly increase production capacity.

Ampligen® also recently completed Phase III testing in the chronic disease, Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS).

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051026/265664.html?.v=1&printer=1

Thanks for posting the news la-onda.

HEB probably won't stop south of $5. HOLD.

Today is a good day to pick up some shares under $3  ;D

Ouch, that was not a pretty candlestick. But HEB won't just spike up and die, bulls die hard and the news will keep on fueling the speculation. We have strong support in this area and below to the last local high of $2.75.

It's a bumpy road, but an ascending one. I want to keep this stock some more time.

I think today is a good day to accumulate shares for next week !

I'll sell HEB today to partially compensate for the loss in SVA. Also at first glance I didn't like a 10-Q they issued after the close on Friday, saying that their debt maturity will be extended and the interest rate paid will rise from 6 to 7%.

This tell me the company has short term liquidity problems.

I'll sell HEB at the open without a doubt.

Anybody still in HEB ?? What you guys think of it ?? ???

Nice gap up today !! Right now its @3 on my screen in pre market. ;D :P

And this is why - nice :)

8:34AM Hemispherx Biopharma: further data shows its Ampligen drug effective against bird flu (HEB) 2.70 :Co announces that the NIH-supported independent study at the Utah State University has recently completed research that shows Ampligen, a Hemispherx experimental immunomodulator, demonstrates strong therapeutic synergy with Relenza (Zanamivir) on an influenza H5N1 infection. Co says "This combination may permit the use of lower dosages and fewer injections of the antivirals and vaccines used to combat avian flu, thereby decreasing the cost of both immunization programs and treatment programs for the full-blown disease."

Thats pretty good news, this 1 is a keeper ! :D

HEB is still trading sideways now, as long as it is not plunging down, everything is good ! ;D

WOW ! Exploding the last 20 mintues of trading, finishing at HOD, hopefully it gaps up tommorrow too !

Tommorrow, it should know out its 52 week high !

If Ampligen is for real and if there is an analyst upgrade, we can see this HEB go to $8-$9 in no time ! :o


YES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;D

I know, how's that for an intraday chart  ;D ;D ;D

Spent most of the day building a nice ascending triangle and then boom :o :o :o

Today's news was certainly good, let's hope there is some solid follow through ;D

And HEB is finally getting some solid exposure  ;D

From BusinessWeek Online this afternoon, same article on Forbes:

NOV. 3 3:31 P.M. ET Shares of biopharmaceutical company Hemispherx Biopharma Inc. rallied Thursday after the company said a study has found that its Ampligen drug helps boost the effectiveness of an anti-viral that could be used to fight avian flu.

Hemispherx shares surged 43 cents, or 16 percent, to $3.13 in afternoon trading on the American Stock Exchange. Volume of 3.3 million shares was more than four times average daily volume. The Philadelphia-based company's stock has traded between $1.25 and $3.70 over the past 52 weeks, and is up 65 percent since the year began.

Earlier Thursday, Hemispherx said an independent study at Utah State University found that the company's Ampligen drug, which was designed to treat chronic fatigue syndrome, was found to boost the effectiveness of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's Relenza, an anti-viral drug.

Hemispherx said pairing existing anti-virals and vaccines with a drug that boosts their effectiveness could "permit the use of lower dosages and fewer injections of the anti-virals and vaccines used to combat avian flu, thereby decreasing the cost of both immunization programs and treatment programs for the full-blown disease."
GlaxoSmithKline's American depositary shares rose 34 cents, to $52.30 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Hemispherx's announcement comes just days after President Bush proposed spending $7.1 billion to prepare for the threat of pandemic influenza over three years. Most of the president's plan would direct funding toward increasing domestic vaccine production and stockpiles.

Hi all!  :D

I bought in at $2.99 this morning.

I got out at $ 3,15. Have had that sell order standing for over a week. Don't know wether to be happy  :) :) or sad  :'(   :-[.

I'll be happy!!!! :) :) :) :) Nice profit. And one should not look back! I got what I wanted.

Amarens

Good for you Amarens, that's what its all about, setting your target and going for it.  Mine is a little higher so I'll hang on a bit more...

Here is some news on HEB if anyone cares !
Press Release Source: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.


Ampligen(R) Currently Administered to 750 ''Very Ill'' Patients Annually
Friday November 4, 4:27 pm ET


PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 4, 2005--Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB - News) today reported that it has come to the Company's attention that a CNN Money report entitled "New Drug said to triple Tamilfu supply" dated November 2, 2005 incorrectly states that Ampligen® is currently administered to 75,000 "very ill" patients annually, whereas the actual number is 750 patients annually.
ADVERTISEMENT

I'm still in too (since the first time David purchased).

I think with the recent news that it is almost a sure thing Ampligen will get approval.  Even if not in the U.S., some other countries surely will want it (Japan seems like the most likely candidate). 

I'm not really familiar with how the approval process works but read somewhere that the FDA does not need to approve Ampligen for it to be used to combat bird flu.  Bush has also asked for Congress to approve his plan for not making drug companies liable for side effects of bird flu drugs.

I didn't like the action on Friday though as volume was rather high.  I thought it would continue to go up due to late surge on Thursday.  It makes me undecisive when David doesn't sell for any solid reason.  He said he did it to balance his loss in SVA.  Anyone else still in?     

Moving higher today ! ;D

Unfortunately, we didn't see that higher move, and I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't protect some of my profits once again with HEB.  However, for those that have been discouraged by the last couple days movement, all is not lost.  At the moment, the pps seems to have stabilised on an ascending trendline that goes back to before last week's upside break.  Hopefully it should hold, but a failure of this line would signal serious problems for HEB I think.

I'm looking for a bouce back off this line towards descending resistance, around 3.18 at present, and then further consolidation with a potential upside breakout.  The 3month chart is also still bullish.  Just watch for the downside break, as the last small symmetric triangle broke to the downside.  Here's the intraday chart:

After 3 straight down days, it is finally in the GREEN ! ;D

I believe that after a correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level HEB is now ready to rebound and even possibly resume its ascending trend.

Theme stocks like HEB will be back in play over the near future, I believe basic conditions favor them (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3848.new#new)

Maybe the rally wont come this week, I don't know, but I know I want to be in these 3 stocks now: NVAX, HEB and AVII.

additional information:
HEB: Short Interest UP 25.5% to 1.1M in Nov 2005

Monday , November 21, 2005 16:16 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) INCREASED 25.5% to 1,117,244 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL      OCTOBER        NOVEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
HEB              890,572       1,117,244        +226,672       +25.45%           1
Based on HEB's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,783,980, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

We've had some insider buying, which is much more significant than insider selling (there are many reasons for an insider to sell some stocks, but there is only one reason for them to buy: good news coming).

The insider bought just a little below me, he bought between $2.34 and $2.37 and my purchase price was $2.38. Here's the same as NVAX, I already have a 4.62% open profit, so I don't want that to allow that to be turned into a loss.

This means that I'll put a limit stop loss order in the market at $2.38. Concerning the upside ... I don't know, just let the profits run.

(the chart was wrong, I just saw and corrected)

Insiders have been buying, volume was above average, possibly good news, maybe Ampligen related news, will be released shortly, and that would move the stock up immensely.

Anyway, I have a 10% profit now, that was a bit surprising (or not), instead of rushing to take profits I'll let them run. Maybe the stock pulls back, I don't know that, but I do know that letting the profits run is the wise attitude to get above average returns over the long term.

I'll put a stop loss order (or maybe Ramsburg will be watching, most of the times I leave the execution of the trades to him, we work as a team at 3 Stocks on Fire) at my buying price, which was $2.38 and will continue holding.

HEB had a pretty nasty decline on Friday, so much for letting the profits run  ::)

Here I will also trust insiders and will give some more flexibility than just my buying price, which was $2.38.

HEB is also stuck in a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the ascending trendline coming today at $2.29 and the descending one at $2.57.

I'll continue holding, unless it is set to close below $2.29.

HEB is coming dangerously close to my safety net (ascending trendline), which for today stands at $2.30.

There was an article on Fox News yesterday that mentioned HEB, it is an interesting read:

Bird Flu, Part II: Do Antivirals Give Us a False Sense of Comfort Against Pandemic Flu? (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177884,00.html)

I bought 3 stocks in the same group, which were NVAX, HEB and AVII. At this time, HEB is the loser, so I should be inclined to sell it.

The plan is simple, if HEB is set to close below $2.30 today I'll sell it, if not I'll continue holding it.

Sometimes I forget what companies do:

«The Company is in the process of preparing a New Drug Application (NDA) with respect to its investigational therapeutic, Ampligen(R), which has completed a pivotal Phase III trial in the potential treatment of CFS. The Company has also recently announced a broad range of clinical initiatives with respect to potential prevention and treatment of avian influenza which involves both Ampligen(R) and its approved biotherapeutic, Alferon N. Recently, at a meeting organized by The World Health Organization and other international agencies, experts have recognized that in order to immunize the maximum number of people, vaccine doses would have to be used with immunity-boosting substances that would make the application more effective. The clinical initiatives involving Ampligen(R) and Alferon N Injection(R) may validate efficacy as an immunity-boosting adjuvant.

When will this Ampligen thing be approved for sale?

I don't know, but I know insiders have been buying and the company is getting ready for mass production:

«Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed they entered into a collaboration with HollisterStier Laboratories of Spokane, Washington, for the contract manufacturing of Hemispherx's experimental drug, Ampligen(R). The achievement of the initial objectives, in combination with the Polymer production facility under construction in New Brunswick, N.J., will enable Hemispherx to significantly increase production capacity.»

The downside risk doesn't seem to be high at this point, with $128M market cap and a drug with a Phase III trail completed. Loss from operations has also been lower than year ago levels.

I want to know more about biotech companies, specifically more about the way to value them. So I'll do two things:

1) Keep on holding HEB for some more time, so I can apply my study to it;
2) Order these books:

a) The Biotech Investor's Bible (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471412791/ref=si_1_1/026-5060596-4018032)
b) The Biotech Investor: How to Profit from the Coming Boom in Biotechnology (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0805075089/qid=1134046703/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_8_1/026-5060596-4018032)

HEB is the weakest of my 3 small biotech plays (NVAX +16%, HEB +1%, AVII +17%), but we're just at levels an insider bought shares about a week ago and I don't see much downside risk at this point.

Maybe HEB is week because NVAX and AVII are being fueled by legit expectations of government funding and HEB isn't. HEB is more of an Ampligen play.

I'll continue holding and waiting for a rally in HEB.

HEB seems to bounce on the technical as well as with this sec filing:

9-Dec-2005

Entry into Material Agreement

Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
We recently completed our negotiations and executed a Supply Agreement with Hollister-Stier for the production of Ampligen(R) for a five year term. Pursuant to the agreement, we will supply the key raw materials and Hollister-Stier will formulate and bottle the Ampligen. We have agreed to pay a one time start up fee and will provide funds to acquire certain equipment dedicated to Ampligen production.

Here is HEB 3 month chart:

Looks to me that HEB can be this week's bird flu leader in advance! >:D

HEB filed an 8-K filing with the SEC yesterday saying this:

«We recently  completed our  negotiations  and executed a Supply  Agreement  with
Hollister-Stier for the production of Ampligen(R) for a five year term. Pursuant
to the agreement,  we will supply the key raw materials and Hollister-Stier will
formulate and bottle the Ampligen. We have agreed to pay a one time start up fee
and will  provide  funds to acquire  certain  equipment  dedicated  to  Ampligen
production.»

Definitely Ampligen will be approved soon for commercial purposes from the SEC. I'll continue holding the stock, waiting for the big news. In the meantime, as always, I'll update the analysis with new information every day.

The news was released at 14:56 so probably that was what fueled the 8.75% rise the stock had on Friday. I'm expecting the bull run in HEB to continue today.

Let's see what comes out of this: Hemispherx Biopharma to Present at the New York Society of Security Analysts 9th Annual Healthcare Industry Conference; New Influenza Treatment / Prevention Initiatives Introduced (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=17316&guid=%7BEE7B3A45%2DBC86%2D499B%2D9D6B%2D04E00D327E8D%7D&symb=)

The Conference is on Thursday, I can wait and hold until there and possibly beyond. Maybe some buying interest comes out of this. Also thinking insiders were buying shares near current levels tells me probably the talk will be positive.

 Maybe HEB will get a little boost today from the news release:

Press Release Source: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.


Hemispherx Highlighted in Study of Innate Immunity as a Defense Against Bio-terror Threats
Tuesday December 13, 9:11 am ET 
Ampligen(R) and Alferon(R) Featured in the December 2005 Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology


PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 13, 2005--Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB - News) announces that research published by an academic consortium led by The National Defense University (U.S.A.) in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (JACI) (December issue) titled "Innate Immunity for Biodefense: A Strategy whose Time has Come" have found that Hemispherx products Alferon N® and Ampligen®, are among a small pool of agents that stimulate innate immunity for the defense against a bio-terror attack. The study concluded that an adequate defense would require a broad-spectrum approach to combat deadly pathogens, such as the H5N1 virus. Alferon N® and Ampligen® have shown the greatest ability to stimulate the innate immune system (also called "the first line of defense") therefore providing the best opportunity to fulfill this requirement.
ADVERTISEMENT


According to the authors, in the event of a bio-terror attack, an immediate and efficient response is required to save lives. Due to the continuous mutation of deadly agents used in bio-terror, vaccines are limited by the inability to predict the infectious pathogen, resulting in an inherent immune response delay that renders it inadequate for protection from a bio-terror attack. The JACI study demonstrated that in order to combat this, an agent that produces a broad-spectrum approach, like Alferon N® and Ampligen®, is required to combat the wide range of deadly pathogens that could be used in a bio-terror attack.

Innate immune cells use pathogen recognition receptors to recognize infectious pathogens and promote a rapid response against them. Toll-Like Receptors (TLR) have been identified as the key pathogen recognition receptors in innate immunity. Ampligen® (polyI polyC12U), a synthetic double stranded RNA, induces Toll Like Receptor-3(TLR3) which studies show result in the greatest increase of innate immunity over other compounds tested to date. Ampligen® has already been tested against more than 25 viruses and will be used in Advanced Biosystems proposal for inhaled interferon in conjunction with Alferon N®. Alferon N®, a natural interferon, utilizes a broad-spectrum antiviral approach and offers various binding affinities that yield greater antiviral activity. Another company mentioned in the study, Coley Pharmaceutical Group, is working with Harvard University in a program which also utilizes Ampligen®. The Harvard synergistic platform combines a Coley product and double-stranded RNA, Ampligen®. Both Alferon N® and Ampligen® have a generally well tolerated safety record and have shown no evidence to date of the inflammatory reactions shown in other innate immunity combinational studies.

Alferon LDO (Low Dose Oral)(TM) was also noted on the basis of animal studies that suggest that oral interferon might be active at much lower doses than when administered parenterally. "It is expected that oral doses will be 1000 times lower than those already FDA approved for parenteral administration."

Hemispherx's products have recently attracted attention from companies and governments looking for therapeutics to use as an adjuvant with their products for the defense of avian influenza. The Defence R&D Canada - Suffield (DRDC), an agency of the Canadian Department of National Defence, has recently signed a contract to evaluate the antiviral efficacy of Ampligen® and Alferon N® for protection against the human respiratory influenza virus infection. In addition to the DRDC Suffield collaboration, Hemispherx is also engaged in broad-based ongoing experimental studies assessing the efficacy of their products Ampligen®, Alferon N® and Alferon LDO(TM) as an adjuvant or single agent antiviral with the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, the Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong and various research affiliates of the National Institutes of Health in the United States.

Alferon N® is already commercially approved for another major viral infection, chronic refractory HPV, and Ampligen® has recently completed Phase III clinical testing for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

It was strange there wasnt a big boost off of the news today.  I guess all the money was going to NVAX today? 

Quote from: tokyopua on December 13, 2005, 06:54:41 PM
It was strange there wasn't a big boost off of the news today.  I guess all the money was going to NVAX today? 

Well, it was just a study ... a positive one, but just more expectations, not facts.

NVAX is doing very well, I don't want my weaker plays to damage performance. Therefore I'll set a simple trading plan that doesn't allow HEB to fall much further (my books didn't came yet and I won't learn from them in useful time) and still lets me in if the stock advances.

I'll continue holding HEB for as long as it is set to close above the ascending trendline, today at $2.36.

The ascending trendline on HEB at this point is already at $2.39 and my purchase price was $2.38. So, unless there's a big 1 day cut of the trendline or bad news for it to gap down, I won't lose significant money on this trade.

Yet, the upside potential is still there.

The plan is to hold HEB for as long as it is set to close above the ascending trendline, which for today stands at $2.39.

I'm still holding and I'm tired. If the stock is set to close lower today I'll sell it without regrets. If not I'll continue holding.

The market has the word now, of my three bird flu picks this one is failing to perform, so I'll let it go if the market says I should.

what to say about IT ???
Could it  be Bullish ??

Aboutwhat I say...they have great product to fight avian flu....cheap now...waiting for FDA's approval....Ampligen= against avian flu= against C.F.S.....

Give me an idea about the company...
Thanks  :)

FYI

This stock is tremendously pumped in Belgium - I think half of the shares are sitting there, really and this pumping is going on for about 5 years...
I don't have a position in it, but many coutrymen do  :)

GL

What about heir product....could it run ???

Ampligen...FDA...what's on ??
There are to much time  they're waiting for FDA....could it be ???
Or just lying ????

their ampligen:

first it was for cancer
then for chronic fatigue syndrome
and now for avian bird flu

so, they have a drug, but simply can't find disease for it !!!
and they are looking for a buyer i heard

HEB was sold at an average price of $2.38, according to plan, I don't know why Ramsburg didn't take it out of the open trades table immediately. I'll do it now.

Might be a good time to look at HEB again - big move today - up over 12%, but not much volume.  Was just stepping up and up on the intra-day.  Looks like it may want to break out of that big symmetric triangle.  Hit and topped out at descending resistance so far, but we also have a nice crossover on the MACD. HEB is presenting potentially key results at a conference this week, so we could see a good run this week.  No other reason aside from recent european bird flu cases (and technicals) I can think of that made it move.

Let's see if volume kicks in on this on this week.  I'm in at 2.65

Had a nice close yesterday at 2.71, almost at the HOD.  Is gapping pre-market, currently at 2.88.  Looks like it is breakout time, and we may push 3.00 today.

This appears to be due to expectations of a major announcement later this week - could potentially spell a big move.  Will have to just hang in there and see....

Well, the last couple days have pulled back on lower vol. - appears ot be testing some nerves out there.  Closed poorly at 2.67, near the LOD.  However, is now sitting at 2.89AH.  Tomorrow appears to be the "big day" when they will report their "exciting news".

Here is their abstract from the poster session tomorrow afternoon - looks promising, however, I really hope they are presenting more than a poster.  If these are key results and a lot is riding on them, it will need a bigger forum than a poster session, but lets just see.

Synergistic Inhibition of Avian Influenza (H5N1) by Poly I: Poly
C12U Combined with Oseltamivir or Zanamivir

D. Strayer1, W. Carter1, W. Mitchell2, D. Smee3; 1Hemispherx Biopharma,
Inc., Philadelphia, PA, 2Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN, 3Utah State Univ.,
Logan, UT.

Background:Avian influenza (H5N1) is a major, global public-health con-
cern. Since antiviral monotherapy can rapidly lead to drug resistant virus, it
will be important to identify well-tolerated, synergistic drug combinations
active against H5N1 influenza. Ampligen®, poly I: poly C12U, is a bi-func-
tional, double-stranded (ds) RNA with both antiviral and immunomodula-
tory activities. Phase II/III clinical trials of Ampligen® for other viral indica-
tions show that it is generally well tolerated. Since Ampligen® and
oseltamivir/zanamivir exhibit antiviral activity against influenza virus, but
by different mechanisms, Ampligen® in combination with each was studied.
Methods: Influenza A/Duck/MN/1525/81 (H5N1) was propagated in
MDCK cells. Ampligen® and oseltamivir (each alone and in combination)
were applied to cells 18 hours prior to virus infection. Cell viability (neutral
red) was determined 3 days following infection. Synergy analyses were per-
formed using the method of Chou-Talalay (J. Biol. Chem. 252:6438 (1977)).
Results: Ampligen® at 32 and 100 ?g/ml was effective in reducing cell
destruction in both the oseltamivir and zanamivir studies, while 0.32 and
1.0 ?g/ml were not effective. Oseltamivir alone was effective in reducing cell
destruction at 0.1 and 0.32 ?g/ml, but not effective at <0.032 ?g/ml. The
combination of Ampligen® (0.32-10 ?g/ml) plus oseltamivir (.0032-0.1
Ìg/ml) showed synergistic inhibition of viral induced cell destruction.
Similar synergistic results were seen with zanamivir and Ampligen®.
Conclusions: Cell culture studies showed that Ampligen® combined with
either oseltamivir or zanamivir, synergistically inhibited avian influenza
(H5N1) induced MDCK cell destruction. These studies suggest a new and
potentially pivotal role of dsRNA therapeutics in improving the efficacy of
the present standards of care for influenza prevention/treatment.
Structure-Based Development of Variola H1 Phosphatase
Inhibitors
J. Phan, J. E. Tropea, D. S. Waugh; Natl. Cancer Inst. at Frederick, Frederick, MD.
Smallpox was officially eradicated more than 20 years ago but there
remains a serious concern that undeclared stocks of the variola major virus
may still exist and could be used as a bioterrorist weapon. Although there
is a vaccine, it is not without risks and serious side effects. Consequently,
there is an urgent need for effective antiviral drugs. In addition to provid-
ing potential therapy for infected people, the availability of antiviral drugs
could decrease the risks associated with the smallpox vaccine by providing
a treatment for vaccine-associated complications. Essential viral enzymes
have frequently proven to be good targets for antiviral drugs (e.g., her-
pesvirus thymidine kinase, HIV protease, and influenza neuraminidase).
The dual specificity protein phosphatase (H1) encoded by the smallpox
virus is essential for viral replication. We recently solved the crystal struc-
ture of this enzyme, the first of any protein encoded by the variola major
virus, at a resolution of 1.8 Angstoms, thereby creating an opportunity for
structure-based drug development against this molecular target. in silico
screening methods have led to the identification of several small molecules
that inhibit variola H1 phosphatase with IC50 values in the low micromo-
lar range.

Didn't realise there were actually 2 abstracts - this one relates to their second drug, Alpheron:

Systemic Activity of a Low Dose Oral Natural Alpha Interferon
(alfa-n3) as Measured by cDNA Microarray Analysis

W. Carter1, D. Strayer1, W. Mitchell2, P. Faber3, H. Wu4, K. Mounzer5, T.
Tong6; 1Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc., Philadelphia, PA, 2Vanderbilt Univ.,
Nashville, TN, 3Cleveland Clinic Fndn., Cleveland, OH, 4Drexel Univ.,
Philadelphia, PA, 5Philadelphia Fight, Philadelphia, PA, 6Princess Margaret
Hosp., Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.

Background: Exposure of the oromucosa to low doses of alpha interferon
(IFN) has been reported to lead to biological effects in animals and
humans. However, the optimal dose/schedule of low dose oral (LDO) IFN
to achieve a systemic antiviral effect has not been determined. A naturally
derived alpha IFN (Alferon N Injection®) has been approved for treatment
of condylomata acuminata. It is active at doses significantly lower than
those used for recombinant alpha IFN. Methods: Study A: asymptomatic
HIV infected subjects with CD4 levels >400 were treated with 500 IU
Alferon® LDO daily for 10 days. RNA from peripheral blood leukocytes was
isolated from blood collected before, during and post-therapy using
Paxgene technology for RNA isolation. cDNA microarray analysis was uti-
lized to identify genes which were modulated as a result of the Alferon®
LDO dosing. Study B: normal healthy volunteers being studied in a similar
manner in Hong Kong. Results:Initial results in Study A indicate a tempo-
ral induction of IFN related gene activity in peripheral blood leukocytes fol-
lowing the oral administration of 500 IU of a multi-species natural leuko-
cyte IFN. Further studies will clarify the range and magnitude of the effect
relative to a parenterally administered dose. Conclusions: Experiments to
date indicate that a biological cocktail of natural human interferon species
administered orally has systemic biological activity based on upregulation of
IFN related genes in peripheral blood leukocytes. Because alpha IFNs are
broad spectrum antiviral/immunomodulatory molecules, potential applica-
tions in numerous IFN-sensitive diseases exists, including application to
respiratory infections such as avian influenza.

So big news is released today after all - Apparently Ampligen improves the efficacy of Tamilfu by up to 100 times, meaning that the amount of Tamiflu required to produce an immune response is reduced by 100 times, and improves the efficacy of Relenza by 500% -

have a look at the PRs:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060216/20060216005132.html?.v=1

http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/16/hemispherx-biopharma-0216markets02.html?partner=yahootix

Currently up 9% at 2.89 - seems to be getting held down just now, will wait to see what the rest of the day brings.  This is huge news for HEB - it should rocket over $3 - possibly after their presentation today.

Hy,

Ampligen drug can be used for avian flu -  :)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BCE9002A3%2DF14F%2D4D7F%2DB31F%2D0EE131B1A82C%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

Now: Let's go !!

Watch it tomorrow !!
In Germany...more than 10 % today...

Don't forget these stocks too:
GNBT - NVAX - AVII - BCRX... ;)

Well today was a HUGE day for HEB - up over 26% for the day :o :o :o

Looked like all the bird flu stocks got a real boost today, as things start to boil over in Europe about bird flu concerns.  Personally, I think this is just the beginning of things for HEB, and we should hear some announcements from them fairly soon about agreements to go into production of Ampligen and Alferon, at least I wouldn't be surprised. 

In the meantime, the volume tells the story.  If the share price was acting funny last week, it must have been due to accumulation - someone wanted a bunch of this before letting it get away.  But now the cat is out of the bag, I think it could continue to be a very strong week - closed at the HOD at 3.98, a new 52 week high and has gone up over $4 after hours.  Really quite difficult to figure out exactly where this could go, but I see resistance at 4.20 and 4.90 from the 3 year chart.  it all depends on how it tackles the $4 range, and whether the volume keeps up. Vector Vest has a price target of $5.62.  Lets see.  But I'm happy - up almost 50% in a week - sweet ;D

I'll leave the daily and weekly (long term) charts - any thoughts about where this may top out are always appreciated

Well we had our pullback over the last 2 days, which filled the gap and provided a 50% retracement for the move.All looks set to rock and rool once more with HEB.  I am looking for a move into the 3.50-3.70 range today, perhaps starting to consolidate the recent move, as it heads for new highs.  Volume still looks positive (though there was a lot of sell-side volume on Wednesday).  I put the target of the symmegtrical triangle breakout at $4.25.  I think we should see a consoidatory formation arround these levels, looking for the next push upwards.  This certainly does not look to be a flash in the pan spike this time....

Great news again 4 HEB (3.49$)

.InPlay: Hemispherx Biopharma describes new studies that identify why the immune system breaks down
Briefing.com (Thu 8:36am) 

.New Research From Hemispherx Biopharma Leverages Recent Studies to Identify Factors in Breakdown of Immune System
Business Wire (Thu 8:25am) 

A triangle is formed on HEB...Wait for breakout

update

Thread needs to me merged with this one: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2946.30




(http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/2584/hebwv2.jpg)

Thoughts about HEB guys, another bird flu stock ...




(http://img430.imageshack.us/img430/5236/hebzo8.png)

"HEB" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.     ;)             
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.      ;)           
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$   ;D     
   

Friday's closing chart.......

February 14, 2007 - 1:18 PM EST           

Hemispherx Avian Flu Prevention/Treatment Program Announces New Primate Results and Expands in both Europe and Southern Hemisphere
Experimental Treatment Designed to Prevent/Treat Multiple H5N1 Classes with Oral Non-Toxic Treatment

Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX:HEB) announced today initial results of a new primate treatment program with Viroclinics, based in the Netherlands, and directed by Professor Albert Osterhaus, a world authority in Avian influenza spread and prevention.

In the primate study, macaque monkeys were pre-treated orally (sublingually) with either Alferon-N (a proprietary formulation of 8 molecular types of human alpha interferon) or placebo. Thereafter, they were exposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, strain H5N1, which has resulted to date in a > 60% death rate in humans. Control animals, as expected, shown massive pneumonia by both gross and microscopic examination which was greatly ameliorated by treatment with Alferon LDO (applied sublingually).

The Hemispherx Vaccine Enhancement™ Platform is the utilization of Alferon LDO (derived from an FDA licensed therapeutic for another virus, HPV) via the Viroclinics collaboration based on promising results in a human volunteer study recently conducted in Hong Kong.

Based on earlier primate studies reported by the independent Japanese Institute of Infectious Diseases (JIID), collaborating with Hemispherx, the addition of Hemispherx's second experimental therapeutic, Ampligen®, may also provide vaccine cross-protection against different H5N1 strains when co-administered with a influenza vaccine.

In the expanded Australian clinical trial, studies will determine whether seasonal vaccine co-administered with the experimental therapeutic Ampligen®, may provide long-lasting seroprotection against either/both of the emerging strains of H5N1. The level of measured immune response to provide adequate protection in humans is as yet unknown, however, primate and lower animal research conducted by the JIID suggest that broad based cross protection in man by a single therapeutic treatment (Ampligen®), acting as a "TLR3 agonist" (stimulator) may be sufficient.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has recently announced a new pre-pandemic vaccine procurement program out of concern that the existing vaccine "won't work well" against the newer pandemic strains now spreading thru birds in China, Indonesia (2004), the Middle East, Europe and Africa (2006) and Great Britain (2007).

Based on these overall positive results, the Company has initiated active discussions with the U.S. Department of Defense regarding its biopreparedness, biodefense initiatives and priorities.

Is HEB still on anyones radar screen?

Time to buy.

Time to buy! DD!

What makes you say that?
the chart looks terrible and the company has a solid history of disapointments.

Going Higher.

12th April 2007

Japanese Ministry Awards Grant to Advance Studies with Influenza Vaccines Co-Administered with Hemispherx's Ampligen(R)
Studies Indicate Ampligen's® Ability to Increase Efficacy of Influenza Vaccines across Various Strains

Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) announced today that Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) issued authorization to its National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) approving their budget to advance studies indicating that an H5N1 influenza vaccine co-administered intranasally with Hemispherx's experimental therapeutic double stranded RNA (dsRNA) Ampligen® (Poly I; Poly C12U) protected against mutated strains of the virus and, further that, the seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine co-administered intranasally with Ampligen® maintained efficacy even when challenged with the H5N1 influenza virus.

The studies are to be lead by Dr. Hideki Hasegawa of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases with whom Hemispherx has been collaborating on the earlier animal studies. Enlarged studies, scheduled over three years, will focus initially on efficacy and stability as it pertains to the formulation of the vaccine and adjuvant (Ampligen®). Subsequent studies will focus on GLP (Good Laboratory Practices) studies required for regulatory submission including pharmacology, safety, toxicology, reproduction and carcinogenicity, followed by clinical studies.

Dr. Hasegawa initially presented the results of his studies at the Second International Conference on Influenza Vaccines for the World in Vienna, Austria in October 2006. In this presentation, he examined the protective efficacy of intranasal co-administration of inactivated whole-virion H5N1 vaccine with Ampligen® in mice and non-human primates. Intranasal administration of a candidate influenza vaccine with Ampligen® resulted in dramatically increased secretion of IgA (also known as immunoglobulin A) which formed the basis of mucosal immunity. The induced mucosal immunity thereafter protected subjects when challenged with Vietnam, Hong Kong and Indonesian strains of the H5N1 viruses.

Dr. Hasegawa's presentation concluded: 1) that the intranasal administration of Ampligen® combined with H5N1 vaccine induced cross-protective mucosal immunity against heterologous H5N1 influenza virus infection in mice; 2) intranasal administration of Ampligen® combined with H5N1 vaccine provided protection in the macaque monkey, a non-human primate which has a complex immune system ,similar to that of humans, from H5N1 infection; and 3) Ampligen® is the only human-applicable dsRNA which has a well-documented safety profile in humans.

Dr. Hasegawa conveyed his desire to commence the studies as soon as possible.

April 23, 2007 - 8:53 AM EDT           


Hemispherx and Armada Health Care enter Agreement to Launch Alferon N Injection(R) via Specialty Pharmacy Network
Utilizing SP Capabilities to Facilitate Expanded Access to Biotech Drugs

Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) announced today that they have enter into an agreement with Armada Health Care to launch their natural interferon, Alferon N Injection® (Alferon®), FDA approved for HPV related genital warts, into Armada's Specialty Pharmacy infrastructure. Alferon® is the only naturally derived alpha interferon approved in the United States. Studies have indicated Alferon® produces fewer adverse reactions than recombinant alpha interferon, maintains efficacy when an individual's antibodies may render recombinant interferon ineffective and has higher levels of potency in certain tests. Twenty-two million Americans, according to NIH data, are afflicted by HPV (Human Papillomavirus), for which Alferon® may be indicate in the refractory cases.

This marks Hemispherx's first marketing/distribution collaboration and is the first initiative in their new strategy towards commercialization. Under the terms of the agreement, Hemispherx will utilize Armada's services including patient and physician clinical education, patient level pharmacy services, reimbursement and data reporting.

Specialty Pharmacy is characterized by intense therapeutic management and centrally managed distribution of medications treating chronic health conditions. Specialty Pharmacy serves unique patient populations that often utilize injectable, infusion and biotech drugs. Examples of some of the disease states treated by Specialty Pharmacy are: Cancer, HIV/AIDS, Crohn's Disease, Cystic Fibrosis, Diabetes, Hemophilia, Hepatitis, M.S., Pulmonary Hypertension, Renal Dialysis and others. Approximately 3% of the U.S. residents take Specialty Pharmaceuticals with a growth rate twice that of traditional pharmaceuticals (27% vs. 13%).

"We are pleased and optimistic to initiate our commercialization strategy by launching a drug with such potential into our collaboration with Armada", stated Mr. Anthony Bonelli, President and COO of Hemispherx. "The Specialty Pharmacy channel seems to be well suited for our core technologies and offers a promising template for further indications and future product launches".

"Armada is proud to have been selected by Hemispherx as a partner in helping launch this drug into the specialty market", stated Mr. Lawrence Irene, CEO of Armada Health Care. "The national network we have built is unique in every sense and includes some of the largest specialty pharmacies in the industry. Our group is a perfect platform to maximize the introduction of any drug into the specialty market and we are committed to helping make this program a huge success for Hemispherx".

Niche antiviral drugmakers rocket on flu news...


52wk Range: 0.25 - 1.20
Volume: 6,240,633
Avg Vol (3m): 238,271

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
64.17%above 13-day MA
74.85%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 87 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

11:19AM Hemispherx Biopharma announces Japanese Government accelerates hemispherx biopharma's ampligen research programs for influenza protection (HEB) 0.84 +0.26 : Co announces it had received notice of an Annual Report prepared by a Director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases to the governing organization of the Japanese Ministry of Health reporting a series of successful preclinical studies in new pandemic vaccines which rely critically on Ampligen an experimental therapeutic for efficacy. The efficacy was demonstrated both within the airways themselves as well as systemically. As a result, the program is expected to be accelerated into human volunteers promptly under supervision of NIID staff. The project is officially titled: "Clinical Application of the Influenza Virus Vaccine in the Intranasal Dosage Form for Mucosal Administration."

Due to the explosive demand for BioPharma companies pending Food and Drug Approval on new and innovative drugs, I will begin focusing on companies which are a few weeks away from their reviews. Taking notice of the recent 1000% over night gains respectively of TTNP and VNDA, the risk versus rewards leans well towards the positive end on these choices.

Moreover, for those who are not high on risk tolerance, investing up to the FDA approval date may still be a very smart investment as these companies are poised to rise leading up to the decision.


Now let's move onto my first choice:


Hemispherx BioPharma, Inc

(Public, AMEX:HEB)

About: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (Hemispherx) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the clinical development, manufacture, marketing and distribution of new drug therapies based on natural immune system enhancing technologies for the treatment of viral and immune based chronic disorders. The Company's products include Ampligen and Alferon N and Injection. Ampligen includes application as a treatment for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) and as a vaccine enhancer(adjuvant) for both therapeutic and preventative vaccine development. Alferon N is an indicator for refractory or recurring genital warts. Alferon LDO (Low Dose Oral) is an application under early stage development targeting influenza and viral diseases. Ampligen is an experimental drug undergoing clinical development for the treatment of CFS.

FDA News: Ampligen (Poly I: Poly C12U) NDA (three month PDUFA decision date delay was announced on 2/18/09 as additional data was submitted by HEB within three months of original decision date). Ampligen is an experimental treatment for chronic fatigue syndrome (which has no FDA-approved treatments) and the drug has an Orphan Drug Status with a PDUFA decision date of 5/25/09.

My suggestion for you is put a small amount you can afford to lose of your portfolio and  you could be either sitting on big gains, or loss. Either way, it is worth rolling the dice on these gems.


See this post...
12 Extreme FDA Trades on New Product Decisions
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7100.msg119331#msg119331


Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Record Price Break Out
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
126.08%above 13-day MA
166.32%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 11

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

Swine Flu Index Jumps as Vaccine Stockpiling Continues...

Select stocks connected to H1N1 vaccine production and development were up big on Monday after reports of stockpiling.

Swine flu claimed its first New York victim yesterday, a 55-year-old school administrator who doctors said had no known preexisting medical conditions. A spokesperson for the state's Department of Health warned, "given the large number of cases, it's possible that we'll see more severe cases in the next few days, particularly among people with underlying illness." The virus is an international threat, with over 8,000 infections worldwide.

Meanwhile, Japan has emerged as a new area of focus, with 125 confirmed infections and officials moving to close schools in an effort to limit the spread of the disease. On Friday, the UK took steps towards reducing the threat of a pandemic, ordering 90 million doses of vaccine. France, Belgium, and Finland reportedly ordered a cumulative 67.9 million doses. The demand spike and the headlines are boosting swine flu stocks today, some by more than 10%.

As a whole, the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 7.7%. It is now ahead of the S&P 500 by 36.7% over the last month.

Leading the index is Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB), which is up by 30%. The company is trading at new 52-week high levels and has rebounded by nearly 600% since hitting its 52-week low of $0.25.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX) and Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) are both up by more than 9% today. Rodman and Renshaw has an Outperform rating on Novavax and a $4 price target, and the analysts recently noted that the company's primary fundamental driver is its Phase II seasonal flu study. The company expects top-line data from the study to be available later this year.

Sinovac Biotech (AMEX: SVA), AVI BioPharma (NASDAQ: AVII), and Pure Bioscience (NASDAQ: PURE) are all up by more than 4%.

Generex Biotechnology (NADSAQ: GNBT) is off by -13% today. After the bell on Friday, the company announced the issue and sale of 15.2 million shares to selected accredited investors at 33 cents a share.

Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) are moving by -1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

As of this writing, the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is one of the top-three performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, up by 40.4%.

Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.

Fun and informative, tickerspy.com is a free investing website where you can track multiple stock portfolios and compare against 250 proprietary Indexes tracking themes from nanotech to agriculture to precious metals. Best of all, tickerspy.com lets you spy on the portfolios of nearly 3,000 Wall Street institutions and hedge funds and see graphs of their performance. Try tickerspy.com today and find out how you stack up against investing legends like Warren Buffett!

Updated chart look...

52wk Range: 0.25 - 2.03
Volume: 19,249,633
Avg Vol (3m): 1,688,480

Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
82.53%above 13-day MA
177.31%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 97 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

Special Report: Hemispherx Biopharma and it's pending FDA decision 
Written by M.E. Garza and Michael Vlaicu     
Monday, 18 May 2009 13:34 

What is going on with Hemispherx Biopharma?  To casual observers, that is the big head scratcher.

Such a mystery, in fact, that the company was contacted by NYSE Amex officials and asked if Hemispherx might issue a public statement indicating as to whether there are any corporate developments which may explain the unusually high level of trading activity for the stock.

Many have wondered why in the past two trading sessions, the price per share for the company has doubled, without apparent "material events."

Those of you who have been keeping up with our coverage of this company on BiomedReports- and specifically those of you who invest using our FDA and Clinical Trials Calendars- know that the stock price continues to spike today following a 41% surge on Friday as traders anticipate the upcoming FDA decision on approval of the company's key drug candidate- Ampligen® (poly I:poly C12U)- a synthetic being developed for the potential treatment Ampligen includes application as a treatment for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS). The stock ended the day on Monday up another 48% and is currently trading at $2.10 per share after hours (as this story is posted).

To say that insiders at the company are excited about the drug's chances for approval three months after a PDUFA decision date was delayed is an understatement.  The journey has been long and difficult.


Earlier in the year, the original FDA decision date had been announced as 2/18/09, but then suddenly that was delayed because additional data was submitted by HEB within three months of original decision date.  When the delay was announced, there was a sell off  that took the stock price from about $0.80 per share down to nearly $0.40. Some investors wondered if the company was heading down the same rocky road they had been down before with Ampligen.

Ampligen was first synthesized in the 1970s and has been proposed and tested as a treatment for many illnesses, but primarily chronic fatigue syndrome and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

Ampligen was developed after Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), in the 1960s, synthesized a double-stranded RNA compound composed of inosinic and cytidylic acid residues inhibited tumor growth by inducing interferon production.  In the mid-1970s, Dr. William A. Carter, a post-doctoral researcher at Johns Hopkins University, modified the dsRNA molecule by adding uridylic acid molecules at specific interval along the RNA chain. The new compound, called Ampligen (for AMPLIfied GENetic activity) stimulated interferon production like poly I:C, but was less toxic.

Carter originally founded a company, HEM Research, Inc., based upon the compound and licensed it from Johns Hopkins. By the late 1980s, Carter and his company were pursuing other human therapeutic uses for Ampligen, as well as non-therapeutic uses, such as diagnostic testing for HIV and protecting plants from pathogens.

Ampligen was tested in clinical trials beginning in 1988, after DuPont invested $30 million in Hemispherx. Initial success in a small trial for AIDS treatment was followed by difficulties in persuading the FDA to permit large scale trials. By 1991, it was thought that the chance of approval for a large trial being conducted in the USA had gone. Hemispherx then began to move clinical trials to Canada and Belgium.

In Belgium, Ampligen has been available for use since the drug's trial beginning in May 1996. It has also been available under Canada's Emergency Drug Release Program for both Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) and HIV treatment since 1996, with marketing rights controlled by Biovail Corporation International.

Over its developmental history, Ampligen has received various designations, including "orphan drug product" and "emergency compassionate cost recovery sales authorization" both from the FDA and "promising" clinical outcome recognition based on the evaluation of certain summary clinical reports (AHRQ, Agency Health Research Quality).

On December 3, 2007, the FDA deemed the new drug application submitted by the company on October 10, 2007 to be incomplete. Specifically eleven deficiencies were noted in the Clinical Section and three in the Pre-Clinical Section.

Continuing down the rocky road, Hemispherx management had missed several target deadlines for new drug application (NDA) filing in the past, including the end of 2005, the third quarter of 2006, and the first quarter of the year 2007.

According to published sources, in October 2007, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Ampligen NDA was filed, marketing for the treatment of CFS now hangs in the balance. This time around, the company was not going to take any chances. They have submitted plenty of positive data and spirits are high within the company that the approval will come. Some institutional investors like their chances as well. In the past few days, the company got an injection of capital from them for the continuing development of the drug. "We've signed to obtain an $18.3 million investment from some institutional shareholders," said Dr. Carter during an interview on Friday. "We also have a $28 million credit line with Fusion Capital."

Carter says the company is looking at a strong balance sheet which provides HEB with some level of guarantee towards multiple years of operation (at least 4 or 5 years according to Carter).

"Of course, we do have a commercial product that is already on the market (Alferon N Injection® ), we plan to expand its sales, so we see a very healthy future for the company and a healthy financial balance sheet- even in the event that the secondary approval is delayed, which by the way is not our expectation."

Dr. Carter, generally considered to be a pioneer in Interferons (IFNs are natural cell-signaling proteins produced by the cells of the immune system) and their Pharmaceutical uses. There are some 30 or so diseases in which Interferon therapy is now the treatment of choice and it captures about $7 billion a year.

"Our Ampligen product is pending FDA approval as a mono therapy for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome which affects 4 million Americans, potentially up to 6 million and there are no other drugs on the market for this disease."

In addition, Ampligen is of global importance given it's application for viral diseases and disorders of the immune system including HPV, HIV, Hepatitis and influenza. Hand in hand with the government of Japan, the company is conducting trials showing very positive results for the drug as a booster treatment for influenza in the vaccine space.

More recently, the FDA had requested additional information from the animal studies for Ampligen.

"We have completed the animal studies that were requested by the agency (FDA)," explains Dr. Carter. "And we have produced an initial report of the studies and are now in the process of submitting final reports, but we've already given the conclusions to the agency. "

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, whose symptoms include widespread muscle and joint pain, cognitive difficulties, chronic, often severe mental and physical exhaustion and other characteristic symptoms in a previously healthy and active person, was largely considered psychosomatic until studies began to prove otherwise. Recently published papers indicate the problem may have it's origins at the genetic level.

"This is a disease that actually involves the genetic machinery, and specifically the machinery involved in mounting an immunological response  and also a gene that is involved in energy metabolism," explains Dr. Carter. "We now have a finger print test which can be applied (which didn't exist three or four years ago) and can identify patients at risk. So there has been a sea change in our understanding about the disease."

The Centers for Disease control recently asked Hemispherx to begin collaborating directly with them when it comes to CFS.

"We're very pleased that shortly we'll be working directly with the CDC to better understand the disease and of course specifically on how to take this experimental treatment and ultimately make it the first standard of care for these patients who are so sick." says Dr. Carter.

Ampligen is received intravenously.  It is generally administered twice weekly for periods of one year or greater. Two toxicology studies were recently completed that establish the safety of intranasal and intramucosal methods of Ampligen administration.

The drug has a PDUFA decision date of 5/25/09. (Note, the decison could come earlier or later than anticipated due to the fact that this date falls upon the Memorial Day holiday and the markets will be closed).

HEB...Poised to Plunge ?  ???

How can they do it? Just look at the last month. Dilutive financings of 16M and 18M completed with lightning speed as the share price rose prior to the 5/25 PDUFA. Think these guys have any confidence that they'll get approval? Obviously not or they'd wait until their share price was at 10 after approval to raise cash.
That 34M will keep them paid for another three years, plenty of time to make BS excuses for Ampligen rejection and invent new diseases to cure with it.

Between Swine Flu and the success of Dendreon, most biopharmaceutical's are taking some rides of late. Good, bad, and plain ugly, they rise and fall in leaps and bounds. Hemispherx BioPharma could get me "in trouble". This is it's second huge ride up in the last week. It really looked like it was heading up and out of sight until a new equity offering was priced at $1.34 just after the stock had soared in two days from $0.90 to $2.00. The equity pricing dropped the stock like a rock the next day back to $1.40, or near the diluting issue price.

"When people saw a penny stock like Vanda could move up 1000%, that created excitement for the next one. Traders are looking for the next Vanda, or at least they're hyping some of these stocks in the hope that someone believes they're the next Vanda."

she still moves up...

Back from the grave... :o

But the 239 companies in the biotech sector enjoyed returns of better than 34% over the past 30 days. Vanda's up more than 1,000%, Hemispherix has more than quintupled, and you'll find a number of other biotech names populating the list of top-performing stocks these days.

That good news stems from a variety of reasons. Vanda shook the market when its schizophrenia drug Fanapt got FDA approval, and Novavax got a lift from the swine flu outbreak. Meanwhile, Hemispherix is still waiting for FDA approval of its chronic fatigue syndrome treatment Ampligen, but that hasn't stopped speculators from bidding up the shares anyway... ;)


52wk Range: 0.25 - 3.98
Volume: 38,340,843
Avg Vol (3m): 4,834,680

Technicals
Record Volume
Record Price High
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
86.64%above 13-day MA
217.98%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

A 'Pandemic' Now Declared, Focus Back on Swine Flu Stocks
On Friday June 12, 2009, 12:00 pm EDT

The H1N1 virus is officially a pandemic, and vaccine stocks are responding.

Swine flu stocks are up again today, with some extending weekly gains to more than 20%. A number of companies released good news to end the week. From small-cap players to multi-billion dollar giants, shares are up big on high volume. Novartis (NYSE: NVS) announced today that it will have a swine flu vaccine ready by this fall. Shares are up by 4% on the news.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization raised its alert level on the virus to "Phase 6," indicating that it has officially become a pandemic.

As a whole the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 2.5%. It is now beating the S&P 500 by 35.5% over the last month.

Generex Biotechnology (NASDAQ: GNBT) is leading the Index today with 10% gains. The company was granted five new patents for its drug delivery systems. The patents were awarded in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Lebanon. The stock is still in negative territory this week by -3%.

Sinovac Biotech (AMEX: SVA) is adding another 3% to its industry-leading 30% weekly rally. On Monday the company announced that it had begun production of a swine flu vaccine, and noted that it could produce up to 30 million doses per year.

Vical (NASDAQ: VICL) has fallen from earlier highs, and is now trading up fractionally. Thomas Weisel initiated coverage of the company today with an Overweight rating and a $5 price target. The analyst cited Vical's proprietary technology, strategic partnerships, and licensing agreements.

GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB) are both ahead by more than 4% today.

Pure Bioscience (NASDAQ: PURE) and AVI Biopharma (NASDAQ: AVII) are industry laggards today, falling by -3% and -6% respectively.

As of this writing the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is a top-three performing tickerspy Index over the last month, gaining 39.5%.

Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.

Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
http://www.tickerspy.com/index/Swine-Flu-and-Bird-Flu-Stocks?refer=2028Y3
   

A 'Pandemic' Now Declared, Focus Back on Swine Flu Stocks
On Friday June 12, 2009, 12:00 pm EDT

The H1N1 virus is officially a pandemic, and vaccine stocks are responding.

Swine flu stocks are up again today, with some extending weekly gains to more than 20%. A number of companies released good news to end the week. From small-cap players to multi-billion dollar giants, shares are up big on high volume. Novartis (NYSE: NVS) announced today that it will have a swine flu vaccine ready by this fall. Shares are up by 4% on the news.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization raised its alert level on the virus to "Phase 6," indicating that it has officially become a pandemic.

As a whole the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is up by 2.5%. It is now beating the S&P 500 by 35.5% over the last month.

Generex Biotechnology (NASDAQ: GNBT) is leading the Index today with 10% gains. The company was granted five new patents for its drug delivery systems. The patents were awarded in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Lebanon. The stock is still in negative territory this week by -3%.

Sinovac Biotech (AMEX: SVA) is adding another 3% to its industry-leading 30% weekly rally. On Monday the company announced that it had begun production of a swine flu vaccine, and noted that it could produce up to 30 million doses per year.

Vical (NASDAQ: VICL) has fallen from earlier highs, and is now trading up fractionally. Thomas Weisel initiated coverage of the company today with an Overweight rating and a $5 price target. The analyst cited Vical's proprietary technology, strategic partnerships, and licensing agreements.

GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB) are both ahead by more than 4% today.

Pure Bioscience (NASDAQ: PURE) and AVI Biopharma (NASDAQ: AVII) are industry laggards today, falling by -3% and -6% respectively.

As of this writing the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index is a top-three performing tickerspy Index over the last month, gaining 39.5%.

Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.

Investors can follow the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.
http://www.tickerspy.com/index/Swine-Flu-and-Bird-Flu-Stocks?refer=2028Y3
   

Some up-and-coming stocks will find their way into the Russell indexes, such as Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB)

What it means
The most important thing about major changes to indexes is that because so many institutional investors work hard to match index returns, changes result in a flurry of trading activity during the transition period. With most indexes, though, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials, changes aren't made on a regular basis. Instead, substitutions are made more on an as-needed basis, which limits the opportunity for traders to take advantage of index funds and other index-tracking investors.

The Russell reconstitution, however, is remarkable because of its regularity. Many investors rush to buy shares of newly added companies in an attempt to beat the index funds to the punch. To try to reduce the impact of the changes, Russell lengthens its process to give institutional investors more time to make trades and realign their portfolios to match up with the new lists.

Can you profit from the changes?
Nevertheless, the predictability of the changes imposes a cost on those who follow the index's changes strictly. Past research has concluded that the forced behavior that index changes impose on the funds that follow them costs investors an average of 2 percentage points every year.

A more recent look at this year's stocks suggests that those conclusions continue to be true. According to a Goldman Sachs study, stocks expected to be added this year have outperformed the overall index by 3.4 percentage points between April 1 and May 4. Stocks to be removed, on the other hand, have underperformed by 6.5 percentage points over the same period.

Nevertheless, some index-trackers prefer not to deal with Russell's annual process. Although the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) tracks Russell's small-cap index, the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) chooses to follow a different index, the MSCI small-cap index. That helps the Vanguard fund avoid the June madness.

What to do
With so many hedge funds and sophisticated investors trying to take advantage of the short-term impact on stocks affected by the Russell reconstitution, you're unlikely to cash in with a swing trade. However, that doesn't mean you should ignore the process entirely.

If you own shares of companies that are slated to be removed from the index, then you might want to sell shares before the final reconstitution on June 26 in order to avoid the selling pressure resulting from the index changes. Alternatively, if you really think a stock has good long-term prospects, make sure you're prepared for a potential drop on that day -- and don't panic-sell after the fact.

Conversely, if any of the stocks on the prospective list of additions are attractive to you, you might want to buy sooner than later. If being included in the index pushes share prices higher, you'll be glad you didn't wait.

FDA approval + Swine flu...
FDA approval decision should come any day.

Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases Scientists Identify Hemispherx Biopharma's Drug Technology as the "Most Promising Mucosal Adjuvant for Influenza. Recognition for this application alone would justify a higher price. If FDA does not happen it could drop (but should stay above recent levels) before going subtantionaly higher - hence the 6 months term.

52wk Range: 0.25 - 4.54
Volume: 20,789,388
Avg Vol (3m): 8,010,090


Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
21.91%above 13-day MA
61.39%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

Picked up good support at the 50-day MA ,and took a nice bounce!

Hemispherx Biopharma to Provide Update On Global Pandemic Influenza Prevention / Treatment Initiatives
Press Release
Source: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.
On Monday July 20, 2009, 8:00 am EDT

PHILADELPHIA, July 20, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Hemispherx Biopharma (NYSE AMEX:HEB) will provide an update on its Influenza research initiatives via teleconference on Wednesday, July 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM EDT. Initiatives to be discussed will include experimental programs planned or underway in Pacific Rim countries, Australia, South America and the United States. Background information may be sourced at Wall Street Journal, July 18/19, 2009, p. A3.

Hemispherx's Medical Director, CEO, and the Managing Director of the Sage Group, a health care consulting firm retained by Hemispherx, will participate. Investigational products and protocols to be discussed will include Hemispherx's Ampligen(r) (poly I: poly C12U), Alferon N (a natural cocktail of alpha 2 type interferons, FDA approved for treatment of refractory HPV) and Alferon LDO, an experimental formulation of Alferon-N for oral delivery.




To access the conference call:
U.S. Callers: 800-346-7359
International Callers: 973-528-0008
Conference Entry Code: 27781

This call will be webcast via the Company's website at: http://www.hemispherx.net.




A digital replay of the call will be available until August 5, 2009
by calling:
U.S. Callers: 800-332-6854
International Callers: 973-528-0005
Conference Entry Code: 27781

About Hemispherx Biopharma

Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. is a specialty pharma company engaged in the manufacture and clinical development of new drug entities for treatment of seriously debilitating disorders. Hemispherx's flagship products include Alferon N Injection(r) (FDA approved for a category of sexually transmitted diseases) and the experimental therapeutics, Ampligen(r) and Oragens. Ampligen(r) and Oragens represent experimental RNA nucleic acids being developed for globally important debilitating diseases and disorders of the immune system. Hemispherx's platform technology includes large and small agent components for potential treatment of various severely debilitating and life threatening diseases. Hemispherx has in excess of 50 issued patents comprising its core intellectual property estate and a fully commercialized product (Alferon N Injection(r)). The Company wholly owns and exclusively operates a GMP certified manufacturing facility in the United States for commercial products. For more information please visit www.hemispherx.net.

Information contained in this news release other than historical information, should be considered forward-looking and is subject to various risk factors and uncertainties. For instance, the strategies and operations of Hemispherx involve risk of competition, changing market conditions, change in laws and regulations affecting these industries and numerous other factors discussed in this release and in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any specifically referenced investigational drugs and associated technologies of the Company (including Ampligen(r), Alferon LDO and Oragens) are experimental in nature and as such are not designated safe and effective by a regulatory authority for general use and are legally available only through clinical trials with the referenced disorders. The forward-looking statements represent the Company's judgment as of the date of this release. The Company disclaims, however, any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Clinical trials for other potential indications of the approved biologic Alferon N Injection(r) do not imply that the product will ever be specifically approved commercially for these other treatment indications; similarly, the completion of the NDA filing process with Ampligen(r) does not imply that the product will ever be approved commercially.

Contact:
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.Company/Investor Contact:Dianne [email protected]

Traders Flock to Vaccine Stocks Ahead of Conference
By the tickerspy.com Staff
On Tuesday July 21, 2009, 12:58 pm EDT

Selected vaccine stocks traded up by as much as 17% on Tuesday.

Last week we covered the renewed hype surrounding swine flu moving into the fall. Already, stocks are swinging wildly in anticipation of Thursday's meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee. The committee, which consists of 12 core voting members under the umbrella of the Food and Drug Administration, is to discuss the use of vaccines in relation to the 2009 outbreak of the H1N1 virus.

As a whole, the Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index is adding 3.6% to its 14% five-day rally. The Index is currently outperforming the S&P 500 by 8% over the last month.

Today's top performer is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX - News), which is trading higher by 17%. The stock had traded flat since gapping up nearly 50% on Friday's open. The prior jump came after the company announced positive results from its Phase III flu vaccine study.

Hemispherx Biopharma (AMEX: HEB - News) is up over 40% in the last two days after announcing its plan to provide an update on its flu research. Investors will be listening carefully during the company's conference call tomorrow at 10:00 am ET.

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX - News) takes a distant third in the weekly performance rankings, up 13.7%.

A number of major pharmaceutical companies have operations devoted to the H1N1 virus, but diversification makes them immune to intraday swine flu speculation. GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK - News), Roche (OTC: RHHBY - News), and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY - News) are all ahead fractionally while Novartis (NYSE: NVS - News) is adding 1% to its impressive 10% five-day rally.

As of this writing, the Swine Flu Stocks Index is one of the top-20 performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, up 11%.

Investors can follow the Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index and view related performance charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.

Fun and informative, tickerspy.com is a free investing website where you can track multiple stock portfolios and compare against 250 proprietary Indexes tracking themes from nanotech to agriculture to precious metals. Best of all, tickerspy.com lets you spy on the portfolios of nearly 3,000 Wall Street institutions and hedge funds and see graphs of their performance. Try tickerspy.com today and find out how you stack up against investing legends like Warren Buffett!

Yesterday...HGSI...Today...HEB !
Strong breakout coming...
Symmetric Triangle went tight up between 13 and 50 day. Potential big win ahead  ;) ;D
Chart is ready to explode lots of consolidation...


52wk Range: 0.25 - 4.54
Volume: 32,305,404
Avg Vol (3m): 9,306,860

Technicals
Close Above the 13-day MA
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
55.27%above 13-day MA
72.47%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $72.69 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

Also reference here...
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7100.msg119331#msg119331