3SOF

1. Introduction

AussieTrader suggested that I should take a look at BFLY, and I've learned the hard way to pay attention when he makes a call (SKNN is just one example).

2. Profile

Founded in 1998, Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap: BFLY) is a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value. Bluefly is headquartered at 42 West 39th Street in New York City, in the heart of the Fashion District. For more information, please visit www.bluefly.com.

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30194;image)

BFLY stock has been dead since late 2003. The stock was only able to make temporary spikes in the past, because it wasn't profitable. But probably that's about to change now and perhaps it can make a more sustainable rise.

3.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30195;image)

This is what we call a bearish trend. But in 2006 the stock was able to build a base and it is above the 50 and 200 days moving averages now.

3.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30196;image)

The short term trend is bullish, after that big white marubozu that was due to this news: Bluefly Monthly Sales Increase (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061207/bluefly_sales.html?.v=1)

There was some consolidation over the past four days, which didn't damage the positive short term technical picture. And with this news out yesterday (Bluefly.com Has First Million Dollar Day (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061213/20061213005352.html?.v=1)) I expect the stock to blow out this consolidation phase, breaking through the $1.23 recent intraday high.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30197;image)

You can see there was an enormous increase in the number of shares outstanding in 2006. That was due to a conversion of preferred shares from George Soros' funds and other institutional investors. The current capital structure stands like this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30198;image)

4.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30199;image)

BFLY's balance sheet looks strong.

4.3. Revenues

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30200;image)

Revenues are growing 28% a year, on average, since 2000. I expect revenues of $75 M for the full year 2006. If this growth rate is maintained for the next 10 years (which I think is entirely possible), revenues in 2016 will be $885 M (but recent news tell me the revenue growth is accelerating, and that would change all this a lot, to the better, of course. But I need to be somewhat conservative).

Apply the current sales multiple of 2 and get a $1.77 B market cap company in 2016, which translates into $13.73 for the stock price. Considering yesterday's close of $1.15, this implies an average annual rise of 28%.

I think that's an attractive long term proposition.

4.4. Net Income

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30203;image)

I don't like the fact that the company is still losing money, but, if it were profitable already probably the market cap would be a lot higher. The gross margin is improving rapidly, so perhaps they will turn a profit in 2007, they should:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30202;image)

4.5. Recent News

• Bluefly.com Has First Million Dollar Day (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061213/20061213005352.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed 8:00am)

• Bluefly Monthly Sales Increase (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061207/bluefly_sales.html?.v=1)
AP (Thu, Dec 7)

• Fashion Retailer Bluefly Selects ATG Commerce (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061204/20061204005621.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon, Dec 4)

5. General Overview

I love the business model of selling fashion apparel online. Personally I don't like to go to the stores, shopping. I have no patience at all (of course my wife loves it).

I think the business is getting even more traction, and revenues may very well accelerate from a 28% average annual growth rate to a 35% growth rate or more in the coming years. Gross margin is improving and I guess they will turn in a profit for full fiscal 2007 (maybe a small net income positive for the 4th quarter of 2006, since sales are surging).

Technically the stock is moving higher on a short term basis. I believe the recent run won't stop south of $1.50, at least.

6. Trading Plan

Buy BFLY today between $1.15 and $1.20, 6.66% of equity as usual.

(I updated the post, I forgot the charts the first time, sorry)

I'M SO PISSED!!!

I had to call scottrade to place the order due to some CR1 bullsh!t...watched it go from 1.15 to 1.35 while on hold.

Cussed 'em...

Up 19% already, you want it, you got it !

(http://mdteague.com/DancingSmile)

I don't want to believe it!!! I lost it by 1 lousy cent  :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\ >:(

Quote from: David Randolph on December 14, 2006, 09:45:57 AM
Up 19% already, you want it, you got it !

(http://mdteague.com/DancingSmile)

Applaud David!  I got in at 1.19 and then went to take a shower, came back and honestly didnt believe my eyes at first!  Niiiiiice!!!!  >:D

I missed the market open too and do not want to buy at $1.40...I have an intraday buy order for $1.25.  David, if BFLY hangs on to its big gain today can you give those of us who missed the small window an idea for a possible entry point?  Thanks!

Quote from: 422fwhp on December 14, 2006, 09:45:41 AM
I'M SO PISSED!!!

I had to call scottrade to place the order due to some CR1 bullsh!t...watched it go from 1.15 to 1.35 while on hold.

Cussed 'em...

Don't worry about those slight misses guys, there will be more of these, as I agree with you, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio needs long term value and short term momentum plays to satisfy everybody.

Next time, forget about ticks, and buy it. The plan was "buy between $1.15 and $1.20". Anyway, don't worry, I expect more of these fast plays going forward.

Your showers always make you money Tokyopua, take 3 of them everyday, please ;D

QuoteI missed the market open too and do not want to buy at $1.40...I have an intraday buy order for $1.25.  David, if BFLY hangs on to its big gain today can you give those of us who missed the small window an idea for a possible entry point?  Thanks!

I would buy on any intraday dip. I don't think it will go as low as $1.25, maybe $1.32 - $1.35? It's hard.

I guess we may have a shot at a close around $1.50 here, with the volume that's coming in.

Good luck :)

QuoteI would buy on any intraday dip. I don't think it will go as low as $1.25, maybe $1.32 - $1.35? It's hard.

Did you get it on the intraday dip to $1.32?

I hope so ...

David,

You think 1.5 is a good entry price?

Quote from: Dracull on December 14, 2006, 10:38:07 AM
David,

You think 1.5 is a good entry price?

Man, I don't know, I said buy on an intraday dip to $1.32 ... it's $1.53 now. Say $1.42 - $1.46 now?

Try to grab it on a dip ... I wasn't expecting such a fast rise, I don't know about day trading, for all I care it can even go to $2 today, I don't have a clue. Do I think it is worth $2? Yes I do.

Good luck :)

just got a small position in BFLY at $1.41. read the analysis but am more interested in the TA...looks good. break of $1.23 was critical, but the volume today can be counted amongst multi-year highs.

thanks for ur efforts on the analysis, David.  :)

Wow, thanks David! I got lucky and got in at 1.17 at exactly 9:30:18 seconds this morning. Already sold out when it went over $1.50. Paid for my membership for the next 6 months! Thanks again.

TT

dang...now seems ideal for an entry...right above the $1.23 breakout...I bought in higher at $1.41.

it could be this way or that...I know. but today's volume on breakout is spectacular to say the least. when price and volume run in tandem, that's when u got a winner.

now...if only the close could be better!  ;)

Quote from: vic666 on December 14, 2006, 03:11:15 PM
dang...now seems ideal for an entry...right above the $1.23 breakout...I bought in higher at $1.41.

it could be this way or that...I know. but today's volume on breakout is spectacular to say the least. when price and volume run in tandem, that's when u got a winner.

now...if only the close could be better!  ;)

I agree about the breakout support, so I just added to my position here at 1.27.  Usually a long upper shadow is not good, but the volume is just too much to ignore.

yes ,
the huge kangaroo tail to 160 is not promising , this may drift lower as it has all day.
max

Quote from: rickjust on December 14, 2006, 03:26:40 PM
yes ,
the huge kangaroo tail to 160 is not promising , this may drift lower as it has all day.
max

RAD yesterday did the same kind of candle, and it is up 3.4% today. When I bought BFLY, I have to be honest, I thought "at least I'll get 20 or 30% here". It gave me that today, but I didn't take it, since I don't make day trades.

Perhaps this way is even better, I'll have more time to study the stock. I appreciate the business model a lot, and with the news out lately the expectation of a 4th quarter profit will keep the share price well supported.

Perhaps it will be a $2 stock in a couple of weeks.

Yes, I had time to study BFLY a bit more. On my initial analysis I didn't specify why I like online retailers so much (SYX is another example).

I like them because their costs are lower, they don't need many stores and as many employees as a traditional retailer, a large warehouse and the website will do the business. Also, their potential market is much, much bigger. For example, www.bluefly.com sells its products to the whole world. A brick and mortar retailer, doesn't matter how big he is, will only have a market size of the size of the community around.

BFLY's losses increased in the 3rd quarter and management's explanation was:

«Operating loss increased to $3.6 million from $1.5 million primarily as a result of a $597,000 of expense reported in connection with employee stock options as a result of the adoption of SFAS123(R), and a year-over-year incremental increase of $1.7 million in spending related to marketing and advertising.»

They used to pay a lot in dividends to the preferred shares ($6 million in Q1 and Q2 combined, just $16,000 in Q3), but since the conversion of those shares to common shares, not anymore.

I told my wife about the stock that I bought and she was interested (of course  ;D). She spent an hour studying the website and said it was irresistible. She said she could buy all the fashion trademarks Sarah Jessica Parker talks on "The Sex and the City" lol. She said "if you know this website, you'll buy here. Very attractive discounts".

For example, we live in Portugal, so many of those designers don't even have a store here. But she can buy through www.bluefly.com. Now imagine all the Chinese, Brazilian, Russian and other countries where there are many high income women that can buy fashion apparel through companies like Bluefly.

I believe this company's potential is enormous, for some reason sales momentum is accelerating. The internet was a flop in 2000 - 2001, it was too early. The public couldn't keep up with the technological change. But now everybody has internet, knows how to use it, and as importantly, is enjoying it. The time to make serious money on the internet is now. Of course, established players have a big advantage, especially when they have $36 M in working capital as BFLY does.

I'm not willing to let go of BFLY anytime soon. This can be another KNOT (or even better).

Nevermind the world, just imagine how American women are reacting to these discounts on such quality merchandise:

Shop blackout accessories and shoes (http://www.bluefly.com/pages/browse/list.jsp;jsessionid=FCj1p1KQ6GYbQMjjbjkoHmtO0nqB5k2JKhot20weUJYAcmIojRux!308735411!app9.l3.bluefly.com!7005!8005?FOLDER%3C%3Efolder_id=2046017589&repURL=%26version%3D3405-hp-04%26loc%3Dright%26typ%3D&objType=2)

Probably in a couple of years BFLY will be selling $1M an hour, not $1 M a day (http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)

Would that prediction be based on an 8 hr work day or a 24 hr period.  ;)  :o

Looking to get in!

Thanks Dave

uc.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 15, 2006, 09:18:34 AM

Probably in a couple of years BFLY will be selling $1M an hour, not $1 M a day (http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)

QuoteWould that prediction be based on an 8 hr work day or a 24 hr period.   ;)   :o

Looking to get in!

Thanks Dave

uc.

You've just reminded me of another advantage of online retailers vs traditional retailers: websites don't close, they sell 24 hours a day.

I exaggerated on that prediction. I mean, I think BFLY can indeed sell $1 M an hour in some time, but not just two years, perhaps more like ten years (because $1 M an hour average translates into $8.76 B in annual sales and the company just sold about $75 M to $80 M in 2006).

I'm sorry, I was excited about the company's website and prospects and not doing an update, just making a small comment.

Let's see if in 10 years time it is possible ... to get to $8.76 B in annual sales by 2016, BFLY's revenues would need to grow at an average annual rate of:

$80 M*(X^10) = $8.76 B <=> X^10 = $8.76 B/$80 M <=> X^10 = 109.5
<=> X = (109.5)^(0.1) <=> X = 60%

Well, I don't think this is impossible. Sales momentum is accelerating from 28% to 35% this year, and it may continue to accelerate, since as my wife puts it "if you know it, you'll buy at www.bluefly.com".

If sales get to $8.76 B in 2016, and we apply a revenue multiple of 2, BFLY will be a $17.52 B market cap company, which translates into a stock price of $17.52 B/129.25 million = $135 a share.

$135 a share implies an annual average gain of:

$1.28*(X^10) = $135 <=> X^10 = $135/$1.28 <=> X^10 = $105.47
<=> X = ($105.47)^0.1 <=> X = 59%

Very attractive.

Right now I just want it to go to 2$, I'm burning with it at my hands bough at 1.5$

David, is it possible for you to do an analisys at one of my longest hold stock: KANA? I got it at 2$ very very long time ago.

Dracull

Quote from: Dracull on December 15, 2006, 10:57:48 AM
Right now I just want it to go to 2$, I'm burning with it at my hands bough at 1.5$

David, is it possible for you to do an analysis at one of my longest hold stock: KANA? I got it at 2$ very very long time ago.

Dracull

Yes, your intraday timing was bad on BFLY. But relax, don't watch every tick, the trend is up and in some time I'm confident you'll be in the green.

KANA? I remember a stock with that ticker symbol, perhaps from 2000? I don't have it my Metastock database now, are you sure that's the current ticker symbol? What's the name of the company? Thanks.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 15, 2006, 11:05:08 AM
Yes, your intraday timing was bad on BFLY. But relax, don't watch every tick, the trend is up and in some time I'm confident you'll be in the green.

Yes, bad intraday timing, but I have learned to don't be watching the streamer all the time, is exciting, true, but also very stressing, specially if you aren't on a "daytrading fashion".

Kana is a old "friend" since back 2000, that's correct, the symbol is KANA.OB and the name is KANA Software Inc.

In fact, the only high-risk stocks that I have are KANA.OB and XKEM.OB.

Quote from: Dracull on December 15, 2006, 10:57:48 AM
Right now I just want it to go to 2$, I'm burning with it at my hands bough at 1.5$

Dracull

hi dracull ,
you can always buy more at this level 125 , if you feel comfortable that will bring your average price down.
maxi

QuoteKana is a old "friend" since back 2000, that's correct, the symbol is KANA.OB and the name is KANA Software Inc.

I've seen KANA's fundamentals, I think it is overvalued. $114 M market cap, losing big bucks every year since inception (accumulated deficit of $4.3 B :o). With the balance sheet they have (($13 M) negative working capital) I wouldn't want this company even if they gave it to me for free Lol, sorry, good luck Dracull :)

What a pity, BFLY was about to close so well, but it fell back down near the close ... I wasn't able to watch the closing action, what was it, a big sell order, a big bid/ask spread? Nevermind, it doesn't matter.

Look at BFLY's e-commerce website again, it has changed since my last update:

www.bluefly.com (http://www.bluefly.com/)

I think it rocks.

From what the company has been saying about monthly revenues, I expect it to report sales of between $27 M and $30 M in Q4 2006.

In Q4 2005 the company sold $21.23 M and was almost profitable, losing just $55,000 (well, because it had to pay those preferred dividends, it lost ($1.342 M)). Now there are no preferred dividends to pay (because preferred shares were converted to common shares) and the company is about to sell $8 or $9 M more than at Q4 2005.

I think BFLY will be net income positive this quarter. That will be the first profitable quarter in the company's history going back to 1998.

I love BFLY both short and long term (as you can read on the long term analysis I made just above on this thread). I'll continue holding it.

Thanks for the feedback at Kana...I sold it 2 weeks ago at 3.45 and was thinking on entering again, but with some second toughs on it....your comment made me difference, not going there again, thanks (and if you think that KANA is bad news, XKEM is worst, but I'm still on in, burning a few bucks  >:D)

I got a dip at BFLY at 1.3, so tell your wife and friends to buy on the side, me on the other hand will not tell to my wife, or else I will go bankrupt for shore ;)

Cumulina, when you have time, can you please give me your woman's opinion on www.bluefly.com?

My wife loves it but I could use a second opinion ;) Thanks !

I will have my wife take a look at it also.  Like most women, she loves to shop and has an eye (although not wallet) for quality of product and ease of use and layout of websites.

Thanks for the confidence, David.  ;)

I browsed the on-line catalog, and the stuff looks really, really nice.
As far as I can tell prices are also reasonable. Especially now, with the $ as low as it is.

Knowing how many women shop by catalog - with a busy workday+family etc. etc. this seems like a winner, as purchases can be made from anywhere, anytime.
Catalog-shopping is very often the best - or only - way for people in remote areas to shop! (I have seen americans stationed outside the USA and how they shop by catalog - amazing!)

Also, not having to shell out rent in expensive malls, paying salespeople, having losses from shoplifting, and other expenses that a clothes-shop usually have, should be a big plus. I can imagine that they can keep as small (or big) inventory as they like, too.

All this being said, I'm neither young, tall nor slender... ;)...so for me the ability to try clothes on before buying is a must.
And I love to go shopping and "fondle" the clothes in the boutiques!

Depending on their customer-service (hopefully good!) I would guess that this could be a really great thing.

The finances, charts etc. I leave up to you guys to analyze. You are so good at it.
If you are all for it, then I would consider it a BUY!

Quote from: basonista on December 18, 2006, 01:56:20 PM
I will have my wife take a look at it also.  Like most women, she loves to shop and has an eye (although not wallet) for quality of product and ease of use and layout of websites.

Lol basonista, I guess your wife's finances will improve if you buy some of BFLY ;D. Thanks for putting her to work for 3 SOF  :)

Thanks for your analysis cumulina, that's what I needed, because the revenues and probably the profits in the 4th quarter I already see.

With sales surging in Q4 (as you can read on this thread or just BFLY's headlines) I believe BFLY will be able to show its first quarterly profit since 1997 .

Longer term, I think it can only get better, from what cumulina said and the historical revenue trend. Remember that George Soros Funds own 39% of this company, and he's one of the greatest investors ever.

My business with BFLY is buy and hold, I don't care about the short term volatility, because I know I can't beat it, I firmly believe nobody can over the long term. But good luck if you're trying :)

Haha, I did buy BFLY so maybe in a couple of years, I'll surprise her with a Blufly shopping trip!  She didn't have time to look at the site yesterday but I'll ask her to do it this morning when she has her coffee. :)

OK, my wife had a chance to look at the Bluefly site and here are her comments:

1. They are a reseller of other people's goods and don't have their own branded merchandise (this was my thought also the first time I took a look at the site).  Her thought was that it was similar to Overstock.com but at a higher price.

2. She likes what they sell but thought that anyone that can afford to pay these prices will probably want to do it in a store and not online.  I would agree with her here and comment that most likely people that can afford to buy this stuff aren't that concerned about the discounts offered on Bluefly.com and probably do prefer to go to the store and actually touch the product.

3. She doesn't know the product brands very well (since she never shops for them) but agreed that this is more high-end merchandise and would not cater to the average shopper.

She is a pretty savy shopper and splits her time pretty evenly between shopping online and in the stores.

Her comparision between bluefly.com and overstock.com is probably not valid since overstock.com sells merchandise that is discontinued while bluefly probably sells more current offerings.

BFLY must be doing something right with their increase in earnings and investment by Soros and others.  I'll have to give more thought about this investment.  In the meantime, I hope this helps! ;D

Thanks for your testimonials on BFLY, basonista and makemoney2007 :)

Basonista, you really need to start making some more money for your wife (lol just kidding, don't let her see this). I'll look into that www.overstock.com, also looks interesting. I wonder about the stock (OSTK). Thanks :)

The target audience for BFLY is women with an average annual income of $75,000.

But, makemoney2007's words from China were like music to my ears. The issue he's writing about is exactly what I had in mind when I initially recommended BFLY, as you can read on this thread.

I know how Chinese, Japanese and almost all of Asia girls which start getting an interesting income love these American and European fashion trademarks. They love it, but they can't buy them, yet. Only traveling a lot, which doesn't make any sense. Online makes sense. www.bluefly.com fills their need.

I have another example here at home, in Europe. I know my wife will be buying stuff from www.bluefly.com when she gets her paycheck. She will tell her friends.

Technically, the stock seems ready for another bullish push. The consolidation was made, the time for another big white candlestick is approaching. Nothing better to do than to keep on holding BFLY (kind of similar with SYX, but I think even better, we'll see).

BFLY is showing lower and lower volume. Short term players are exasperating. But look, there wasn't any technical damage to the chart, and fundamentals ... are great if you ask me.

I'll keep on holding BFLY, just love their business model (and outstanding revenue growth). Profits look to be around the corner, probably the 4th quarter will be profitable already. Take a look at www.bluefly.com again. Look at it everyday. As a shareholder, or the owner of a store, you want to know what's going on. Even for shareholders, online retailers are much more transparent than brick and mortar (you would have to physically go to the store everyday to find out what they are selling and at what prices).

BFLY is trying to rally, but still couldn't do it today. Maybe tomorrow? At least today's candlestick is quite bullish.

The company is making even more discounts, probably to sell all they can before Christmas: www.bluefly.com

I'm aware most momentum traders already left BFLY, but I ain't no momentum trader, and according to my method, BFLY is a screaming buy at current levels.

Bears, or at least "non bulls" at BFLY say something like this:

"Show me the money. This company's revenues have been rising steadily, but they never had a profitable year".

That's true, BFLY never had a profitable year (except when it was still an incipient company back in 1996). But I believe that as sales grow, it will eventually turn profitable, probably in fiscal 2007. Let's check how the gross margin has evolved over the years:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30811;image)

Gross margin has been rising, now standing at 41.7%. So, the company isn't just selling more and more, it is doing so in a more efficient manner. I have little doubts that 2007 will be a profitable year for BFLY, and perhaps we'll see a profitable quarter right here, right now, in Q4 2006, because sales are soaring and this is seasonally the strongest quarter for the company (as for any retailer).

I'll continue holding BFLY.

Since I deal with retailers, (Haven't made enough money trading to quit my day job)

Some thoughts on Bluefly.com

Most women regard shopping as a social & emotional experience.
This means they enjoy going into the stores to browse, as much as the actual purchase.
A large % of the sales made to women are based on Impulse buying.
Impulse buying is prdeicated on sensatory response to the merchandise (see, touch,)
in that respect, this is a strike against bluefly.

A second strike is sizing. My wife is 5'6 wighs 118 and wears anywhere from a size 6 in things like jeans, to a Small / Medium in sweaters. However, sizes vary from different manufacturers, so she stays away from those she is not familiar with unless she can go and try them on. She will shop at J.Crew or Banana Republic online since she has familiarity with those brands (Both are branded companies also - This means that all merchandise is made for them) - This is different than the bluefly mix where you have multiple vendors the customer may not have familiarity with (ie; she has not tried on their merchandise before). The most absolute category is Jeans.

A thrid strike, is based on my own personal experience shopping this holiday season. My wife wanted a new cashmere argyle sweater - bluefly was one of the sites I checked out (they came up on a google search) . The pricing there was outragous in comparison to other places I shopped (I ended up buying from Macy's a division of Fedrated dept. stores). This tells me that the "average" consumer won't be buying from bluefly. The demographics target  (as mentioned earlier in this thread) I believe is Women making over 75K. if you consider, though, the average age of women making over 75K must be 35+ (on Average) - That narrows your market considerably and if you look at bluefly merchandise, that looks to be targeted at the 20 something market. The most successful retailers that target the 30+ women (including J.crew, Banana Republic (division of Gap) also include Limited Brands and though they are way down now, Chico's Fashions. The 18-30 Market is dominated by ANF, American Eagle Outfitters, Urban Outfitters, Aeropostale - All of which do online as well as brick and mortar stores (hence the ability to try it on and confirm fit before buying online)

There is also the fad factor to be considered. One of the stocks I made some nice money on this year was True Religion Jeans - I made it by playing short at 22. When times get tight (As I believe they will in the first half of 2007) Your not going to find a lot of buyers for $150 jeans and $300 sweaters. My wife constantly shops the "clearance" sections of Nordstrom, Saks, Bloomingdales & Neiman Marcus and when you see quantities of a particular brand marked off 50%+  you'll know there is problems.

Overall retail looks weak this year, - My customers are telling me. One only needs to look a the huge "sales" that started on 3 weeks before Xmas to confirm this. Had Thanksgiving not fallen when it did this year (Which gave shoppers almost an extra week) I believe you'd have seen same store comps down as compared to flat or up just a bit.

Just my .02.

Good luck

Daily chart is bullish, weekly chart is bullish....time to go up now! ;)

BFLY is starting to make me nervous at this level. It seems to be hoping for some good news about the Christmas season sales figures. I took a larger position in this trade perhaps. Can someone help ease my mind?

Thanks, Jimmy

Hi HANDBALLJIM, thanks for your comment :)

QuoteBFLY is starting to make me nervous at this level. It seems to be hoping for some good news about the Christmas season sales figures.

Investors that hold the stock naturally expect nice revenues for this season, given the latest two press releases from the company:

• Bluefly Monthly Sales Increase (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061207/bluefly_sales.html?.v=1)
AP (Thu, Dec 7)

• Bluefly.com Has First Million Dollar Day (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061213/20061213005352.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Wed, Dec 13)

Also, the historical revenue graph says sales have been growing steadily:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30200;image)

Q4 is the strongest for BFLY (as for most retailers) and it is possible that the company reports a profit for this quarter. Longer term I can only see sales and profits growing, as more and more people know about their website.

QuoteI took a larger position in this trade perhaps. Can someone help ease my mind?

Yes, probably you are too much overweighted on BFLY. Perhaps you should reduce your position to a normal weighting.

Help ease your mind? Yes, buy and read Eckart Tolle's book, "Practicing the Power of now":

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30980;image) (http://www.amazon.com/Practicing-Power-Now-Essential-Meditations/dp/1577311957/sr=8-10/qid=1167257975/ref=pd_bbs_10/104-9523553-3423120?ie=UTF8&s=books)

:)

I see sales growth accelerating at BFLY and this company becoming profitable soon. There's an interesting article on Market Watch today about recent consumer trends:

E-tailers reach a tipping point (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/online-retail-reaches-holiday-season-tipping/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6442618%2D1537%2D45AD%2D8C66%2D0739D25604AD%7D)

I'll continue holding BFLY.

Unfortunately BFLY has been unable to rally and technically it broke down below the 10 SMA short term support. But I think key support stands at $1.20. Only a close clearly below $1.20 would make it definitely bearish from a technical standpoint.

I compare BFLY with KNOT, for example, and I don't see many differences. Revenues are about the same ... but KNOT is profitable and BFLY isn't, yet. And, of course, KNOT is a $802 M market cap company and BFLY is just $170 M (yet).

I have to say this on BFLY: I'm finding it hard to find attractive long term investments out there, at least in the small cap world. BFLY has a business model that I have a lot of faith in. I'll continue holding BFLY whatever happens to the technical picture.

Golden cross today? 50 and 200MA @ 1.02$!  :)
It also looks like BFLY is making a small pennant here...




(http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/2587/bflykv9.png)

Quote from: Se7en on December 29, 2006, 02:50:08 PM
Golden cross today? 50 and 200MA @ 1.02$!  :)
It also looks like BFLY is making a small pennant here...

Yes, nice golden cross on BFLY on a 2.4% rise :)

Fundamentally, the 4th quarter is the most important quarter for the company, since it usually makes about 36.2% of revenues over that quarter (if there wasn't any seasonality, of course the normal would be 25% of revenues).

I estimate $30 M revenue for Q4, 2006. This will represent 38.46% of 2006's total revenue. The gross margin in Q4 was 42.86% in 2005 and 2004, as you can see on the following graph:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31164;image)

So I expect the same 42.86% gross margin for Q4 2007. This gives me 0.4286*$30 M = $12.86 M as Gross Operating Profit.

Selling/General/Admin Expenses were $5 M in Q4 2004 and $8 M in Q4 2005. So perhaps $11 M in Q4 2006?

This means EBITDA would be something like $1.86 M ... there's no long term debt so no borrowing costs, apply a 40% income tax and this would go down to the bottom line as net income of $1.116 M.

Since there are 129,248,990 shares outstanding, EPS would be just $1,116,000/129,248,990 = $0.0086, that is, $0.01.

Not much, but I'm sure it would make the stock rally. I need to think of BFLY as a long term holding, www.bluefly.com is a business I would love to own. But I own it already, since I'm a shareholder of the company :) I'm not willing to sell my great business, not now, not at this price.

It is such fun to read this thread. everybody is asking their wife/girl-friend for the advise. :)

So I did my share and asked my wife about it. Her conculsion is, the site is not too good, not to bad either. she doesn't feel she has the perticular interest to buy from it. some items on this site can be bought from other places like ebay with less (new items from ebay sellers).

Regardless what she say, I do think bluefly has its place. There is a need for upsale online retailer. If all of our wives/girlfriends like it, bluefly will be a multi- billion dollar company by now.

I used to own an retail store. Right after I bought the store, I gave my wife the responsibility to order fashion items like accessaries and cloths. As it turned out, the things my wife likes doesn't sell. The reason is, the area around the store has an increasing latino population, they have a completely difference taste from my wife's. After that, I no longer rely on her judgement  ;)

So I think the ultimate judgement in this case is to check the sales numbers. BFLY is passing it with flying colors.  The trend is up, the stock should be up too.

Without thinking about wether BFLY is going to dominate luxury goods sale online or offline, there is no denying that BFLY's business is in an up trend. The question of course, is if the stock price is too high at this point. Looking at the 5 year chart, I don't think so. It is actually in the low range. I think BFLY can go back to its old highs of 2003, which is $5.

So I think I will buy some BFLY when market opens. I can see (hope) it going to $2 or $3 if they have a good Q4 number.

happy trading

Thanks a lot for your comments/analysis on BFLY zibeaster :)

I still need to thank you on your awesome analysis on GOAM, you opened my eyes to it when I went to the Yahoo Board ;)

As for BFLY, the stock has kind of low liquidity and has been stuck in a trading range, so it could have gone both ways today (it was up and down during the session).

The 50 days SMA closed above the 200 days SMA, despite the stock being down on the day. I'm prepared to be up or down 10 or 20% on this trade without a blink of an eye, like zibeaster says, revenues are consistently up, profits are around the corner, longer term the stock has nowhere to go but up in my humble opinion.

David, thanks for your complement. You traded GOAM better than I did. This is a great site and you have done a fantastic job.

QuoteThis is a great site and you have done a fantastic job.

I second that  :)

I also showed my wife who is Japanese the BlueFly website and she said that anyone with fashion sense would want to shop at this website...and she said many Japanese men and women in her country try to find special addition clothing that is not common. She said looking at some of items...you will not be able to find them being sold on other websites.

Niche type clothing websites are very successful, since they cut deals with the designers to offer a product first...or an exclusive. Also when styles change you can no longer find certain items anymore. Well these type of websites will sometimes buy the back stock on discontinued items. Remember it is usually when you cannot buy something anymore...is when you really want it.

I will also hold BFLY for a while...I just might not know when to sell it when it does go up...so I will be watching this boards actions.

The great thing I have learned about this website...is before I would review charts and news for a couple of hours at night/morning....here you have hundreds of people helping you with research and to make logical decisions.

Thanks for the kind words zibeaster and HANDBALLJIM :)

As for GOAM, I'm keeping an eye on it, now everybody is thinking it won't be able to turn out a profit, but of course it will, so many will be surprised and the stock will make another bullish run. Probably I'll buy it back close to the earnings release, hopefully between $6 and $7 ;D

Thanks for your wife's review on BFLY HANDBALLJIM, we agree, the website sells for the whole world, and especially people in Asia love these fashion items.

There weren't any news or technical developments today, I'll continue holding BFLY (just noticed they also sell fashion sunglasses, cool: www.bluefly.com)

BFLY advertisement are everywhere ;)

Quote from: Terliso on January 06, 2007, 11:57:57 AM
BFLY advertisement are everywhere ;)

It should be everywhere, they spent $3,625,000 in advertising in Q3 alone:

«We increased our spending in marketing  (excluding  staff related costs) by 115% to  $3,104,000  for the third  quarter of 2006,  from  $1,442,000  for the third quarter 2005. The primary goal of our marketing campaign is to create awareness, both with new customers as well as with our existing  customers.  In general, we intend to market our business more  aggressively than we have in previous years. This more  aggressive  growth  strategy  will cause our  marketing  expense as a percentage of revenue to increase in the short-term; however, we believe that it is a prudent  investment  in our business  given that our margin  structure  and average  order size have  historically  resulted in a relatively  high  positive contribution to overhead and marketing on a customer's first order.»

There were no new technical or fundamental developments, I'll continue holding BFLY, expecting for its first quarterly profit in Q4 2006.

Bluefly Announces Participation in the Cowen and Company 5th Annual Consumer Conference
Monday January 8, 10:27 am ET

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap: BFLY - News), a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value (www.bluefly.com), announced today that it will present at the Cowen and Company 5th Annual Consumer Conference at the Westin New York in New York on January 10th.

The Bluefly presentation will be held at 2:30 pm Eastern Time. The PowerPoint and audio portion of the conference will be available for at least 30 days from the date of the presentation at http://investor.bluefly.com .


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108006093.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108006093.html?.v=1)

Thanks for posting the news Se7en :)

Wow, BFLY was evil today (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)

I hope you were not stopped out, and if you were, I suggest you jump back in again. I guess many people that bought on the day we bought at 3 Stocks were weak hands and placed stops below the $1.20 short term support level.

Probably the market maker or someone looking to accumulate shares used a low volume time of the day to trigger those stop loss orders and get shares at a discount. Then the stock rebounded and actually closed 3.25% up on the day.

This looks like a classic "washout" day. Perhaps BFLY is now, finally, ready to make the long white candlestick we've all been waiting for.

But my motivation isn't technical, as you know. My personal estimates tell me BFLY will show a profitable quarter when it presents Q4 results, and that might be huge news for the share price. Moreover, I love online retailers, even more so when they sell exclusive designer brands as www.bluefly.com does.

I'll continue holding BFLY with strong hands.

Quote from: David Randolph on January 08, 2007, 06:17:28 PM
This looks like a classic "washout" day. Perhaps BFLY is now, finally, ready to make the long white candlestick we've all been waiting for.

I think we're almost there, I can see it now...... ;) :D ;D

Terliso said: «you do this», and of course, BFLY responded accordingly, he's called "The Magic" for a reason.

The candlestick was bullish and volume was above average. After yesterday's washout BFLY is finally doing what it must do, given the fundamentals.

I'll keep on holding BFLY, expecting the best quarter ever when it reports results.

Data from the Form 8-K filed prior to today's conference presentaiton. Here's to a big honkin' white candle today!

Bluefly Sees Strong 4Q Sales Growth
Wednesday January 10, 7:57 am ET
Bluefly Sees 4th-Quarter Sales Expand More Than 26 Percent

NEW YORK (AP) -- Online clothing retailer Bluefly Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter sales rose more than 26 percent despite slower sales of cold weather clothing.

The company said its expects quarterly sales to grow 26 percent to 28 percent over the prior year period's $21.2 million sales, which implies revenue of between $26.7 million and $27.1 million.

Full-year sales expanded 30 percent to 31 percent over 2005 sales of $58.8 million, Bluefly said. The puts annual sales at roughly $76.4 million to $77 million.

Bluefly said sales slowed in December, due to softer demand for cold weather items such as outerwear, hats gloves and scarves, and sweaters. December temperatures in the U.S. were well above normal, according to the National Weather Service.

However, it said results were bolstered by year-end deferred revenue, which more than doubled.

As I read this thread, my expectations were:

«From what the company has been saying about monthly revenues, I expect it to report sales of between $27 M and $30 M in Q4 2006.»

You have:

QuoteThe company said its expects quarterly sales to grow 26 percent to 28 percent over the prior year period's $21.2 million sales, which implies revenue of between $26.7 million and $27.1 million.

So, a bit light.

For the full year:

QuoteFull-year sales expanded 30 percent to 31 percent over 2005 sales of $58.8 million, Bluefly said. The puts annual sales at roughly $76.4 million to $77 million.

My expectations were between $75 and $80 M.

So, it looks like the weather (which has been abnormally warm for this season) didn't help BFLY to have a terrific quarter. I guess several traders will be disappointed by these numbers, because the latest two press releases were indicative of more of a surge in sales (it looks like December was relatively weak).

Anyway, revenue growth from 2005 levels is something like 30 to 31%, and that's what I expected in my long term estimates (once I hoped for more, but 30% average annual growth is great).

Perhaps the stock will go down today (or else my expectations were way above the market consensus), but I still see it as an astounding long term holding.

I see the stock opening higher, given the pre-market action so far.

If I were a trader I would take profits, but being a long term investor (and the Stocks on Fire Portfolio manager, which can't sell at $1.40 - $1.45 to try to buy at $1.25 - $1.30, for example), I'll keep on holding.

The wise thing to do is to keep on holding BFLY for the long term, because strong growth continues, and a bit of a soft quarter doesn't mean anything in the long term picture. I'm just saying that the numbers are a bit shy from what I expected and probably the stock will sell off after the open. If it goes up, even better, it means the market wasn't expecting as much from BFLY as I did and is becoming aware of this gem.

I provided the information I get from the numbers but I am a long term investor in BFLY, good luck for all  :)

Unfortunately I was right about the market's reaction to today's numbers released by BFLY. But let's put those revenue numbers into context:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31508;image)

Average annual revenue growth since 2000 was 24%. This year revenue growth was even higher, at 30-31%.

So, what's the problem with revenues? There isn't any problem, they are great !

We still need to hear about gross and net margins, net income and EPS, among other important things of Q4. But a quarter is just a quarter, and a fundamental analyst needs to trust long term fundamental trends.

With revenues growing perhaps at a 30% average for the next 10 years, BFLY will have $1.06 B in revenues in 2016. If the current price to sales ratio persists at 2.17, this will translate to a $2.3 B market cap company, almost 14 times the current market cap.

This means 1,300% profit in ten years. That's 30% average annual profit for a long term holder of BFLY's shares. I'll take anything that gives me at least 16% average annual profit, because that's double the general market average.

And who knows, we can all be positively surprised and BFLY's revenues rise even more than 30% going forward.

We also need to check those margins, because at some point this company will be very profitable, because an online retailer has much less costs than a brick and mortar retailer.

I'll continue holding BFLY for the long term, despite expecting some short term weakness.

Any chance we can get a technical analysis on BFLY for the near-term? The fact that it closed below 1.20 yesterday has made me a little nervous, as I now see the next support around 1.10 and then the 50MA at 1.07. If it falls much further from current levels, I may be taking money elsewhere for the time being.

Thanks  :D

Quote from: nutsterrt on January 13, 2007, 10:45:40 AM
Any chance we can get a technical analysis on BFLY for the near-term? The fact that it closed below 1.20 yesterday has made me a little nervous, as I now see the next support around 1.10 and then the 50MA at 1.07. If it falls much further from current levels, I may be taking money elsewhere for the time being.

Thanks  :D

Hi nutsterrt, I thought you sold after seeing the market reaction to a bit weaker than expected revenue number for Q4 2006. But no, you're still holding and looking for technical advice.

So, let's see, technically the 50 and 200 days simple moving averages are rising, which shows the trend is positive. The 50 days stands at $1.07 and the 200 days at $1.02.

I don't know if the stock will go that low over the short term. If I were concerned with the short term I would have sold at $1.35 plus, because I clearly saw a retraction after those Q4 revenue numbers were released (as one can read above on this thread).

If I were a short term trader and had I sold, I would be buying back around current levels. Being a long term trader and a portfolio manager for 3 Stocks, I held, not paying much attention to the short term gyrations in the share price.

Since today is Sunday and I have more than usual time for these updates, I've listened to the BlueFly conference at Cowen. One really has to see this stock as a long term investment, because they're still so small in comparison to what they may become.

For example, I found out that only 3% of their revenues come from international costumers. This because their payment systems are inadequate. They'll introduce Pay Pal and Google check out in 2007, and probably this will help to drive up international sales (they refuse many international orders because they can't verify the credit card information).

I believe that over the very long term (say, 10 years), BFLY can be as big or even bigger than Amazon, because they sell fashion clothes and accessories (and also design home products, still just 2% of business, but that can grow immensely), and that is as big or even a bigger market than selling books and DVD's as Amazon does. And BFLY's gross margin is higher than others:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31689;image)

Amazon.com is a $15.74 B market cap company and BFLY is just $151 M.

I'm not in a rush to sell this business that I love. I'll keep holding it for the long term.

Fantastic review of the company (applaud). I agree that I should have sold at 1.35, but hesitated to pull the trigger until it was clearly too late. I really don't see it going below the 50MA, so I plan to hold it until the next pop and will probably keep part of the position for the longer term, while taking more money off the table until I see the company become profitable. Hopefully February!?

Thanks again!
nutster

Bullish inverted hammer with meeting lines today. Maybe the bleeding has stopped for now ::)

Quote from: nutsterrt on January 14, 2007, 02:10:55 PM
Fantastic review of the company (applaud). I agree that I should have sold at 1.35, but hesitated to pull the trigger until it was clearly too late. I really don't see it going below the 50MA, so I plan to hold it until the next pop and will probably keep part of the position for the longer term, while taking more money off the table until I see the company become profitable. Hopefully February!?

Thanks again!
nutster

Thanks for the applause nutster :)

I'm not sure they will report a profit in Q4 anymore, because sales were a bit sluggish in December. Perhaps they will report a small 1 cent loss per share, we'll see.

Quote from: nutsterrt on January 16, 2007, 04:36:08 PM
Bullish inverted hammer with meeting lines today. Maybe the bleeding has stopped for now ::)

I know it is extremely hard to take the eyes out of the short term price action. But that is highly unpredictable and, being unpredictable, it doesn't give people money over the long run.

May I recommend you a book?

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31830;image) (http://www.amazon.com/Buffettology-Previously-Unexplained-Techniques-Buffett/dp/068484821X/sr=8-1/qid=1169025406/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-6599784-2405512?ie=UTF8&s=books)

Another advantage of owning an online retailer, for an investor, is that he can check the business everyday with just a few clicks: www.bluefly.com

One would have to visit the stores or the factories everyday to get the same information for a traditional business (and that's impossible).

So, transparency and visibility should earn a premium. Just a few long term thoughts.

I'll keep on holding BFLY, as its market potential is even bigger than Amazon's !

Quote
I'm not sure they will report a profit in Q4 anymore, because sales were a bit sluggish in December. Perhaps they will report a small 1 cent loss per share, we'll see.

David, what was the company's guidance/estimate for Q4?
If sales 'slowed down' a little, is it possible that they will miss their earnings which could lead to a bad reaction of the market to it just like it did when the news of the slowing sales came out or am I 'overreacting' here?!
I almost never hold a stock through earnings, too many bad experiences with it, but I was willing to hold this one after reading your projections and fundamental analysis on BFLY, but now I have some doubts ...  :-\

Quote
David, what was the company's guidance/estimate for Q4?

There isn't any, no analyst is covering the stock, as you can see here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BFLY

I made my own estimate a while ago on this thread (on the previous page, I guess), and I expected $0.0086 EPS for Q4, but with the not so strong revenue growth in December due to unfavorable weather conditions it may come in at ($0.01) instead. 

QuoteIf sales 'slowed down' a little, is it possible that they will miss their earnings which could lead to a bad reaction of the market to it just like it did when the news of the slowing sales came out or am I 'overreacting' here?!

There aren't any estimates to miss. ($0.01) EPS will still be the best quarter in the company's history.

QuoteI almost never hold a stock through earnings, too many bad experiences with it, but I was willing to hold this one after reading your projections and fundamental analysis on BFLY, but now I have some doubts ...   :-\

Well, I understand your doubts, but I'm holding BFLY for more than one quarter, I hope to hold it for years to come, because it is exactly the kind of business that I see benefiting the most from globalization and "internetization".

Good luck :)

Quote from: David Randolph on January 17, 2007, 08:18:46 AM
There aren't any estimates to miss. ($0.01) EPS will still be the best quarter in the company's history.

Boy, we aren't lucky enough to see THIS every day. Can't really go wrong unless it goes down from last quarter  ;D

Another advantage of an online retailer, is that they can change their shop-window almost everyday with not much cost. Look at today's shop-window at www.bluefly.com :)

Revenues are growing about 30% a year, to $77 M in 2006. If the current growth rate continues, as I have little doubts that it will (unless management is able to spoil it all, but I don't think so), revenues will be $1.06 B in 2016.

I believe the net profit margin of BFLY, once it gets a bigger dimension, can be something above 10%. I believe this because the cost of running a website and a warehouse is much lower than the cost of having hundreds of brick and mortar stores to achieve the same sales level.

Say the profit margin will be 15% in 2016. Net Income would then be $159 M. Apply an average 16 times earnings multiple and get a market cap of $2.54 B.

BFLY's current market cap is $153 M.

Nobody knows the future, but the revenue trend of the past 8 years shows a 44% average annual increase. This trend will probably continue.

This makes me think: then why didn't the stock rose a lot for the past 8 years? Great question David. I guess it was because of dilution (which I don't expect in a meaningful way going forward). But I'll check this out for the following update.

I'll continue holding BFLY.

Thanks for the update on the storefront window  :o

I love these updates. Sorry to keep asking questions that are obvious to most people since they already know and I do not but..... why is the 50 MA crossing the 200 MA so important as to refer it to the Golden Cross? I also assume it has to cross it sharply? And then with the Signal moving in a downwards direction in the MACD, what does that usually mean? Short term issues?

Please also do not get me wrong, I love the concept of bluefly. My wife already loves bluefly too much (therefor my wallet doesn't) and I will have to do better on 3SOF just to afford all there stuff. lol

Thanks for the education.

QuoteSorry to keep asking questions that are obvious to most people since they already know and I do not but..... why is the 50 MA crossing the 200 MA so important as to refer it to the Golden Cross?

I'll let someone else take the MACD, but I can give you MY take on the "Golden Cross."

Judging the stock's future by day-to-day trading is pretty tough, as you probably already know. However, long-term indicators (i.e. moving averages) are an excellent tool in helping determine the future movement of a stock.

When a "shorter-term" moving average such as a 50 MA (though some would still consider 50 days to be somewhat long) crosses a REALLY long average like the 200 MA, it indicates recent and sustained upward movement, suggesting a more bullish outlook in the future. Of course, you should have heavy volume to go with it. As you can see from BFLY, it hasn't really been consistently heavy, with only a couple of spikes here and there. You can't (I don't believe, anyway) confirm a bullish trend without good volume.

The cross is also important because the 50 MA now becomes a key support level. Currently, it sits at 1.09, not far from today's close, so this could be interesting to watch.

Oh, and as far as I know, the cross doesn't have to be violent...just has to happen  ;D

If one of the technical geniuses around here doesn't cover MACD or direct you to an existing explanation, I'll take a stab at that as well.

I am loving this stuff more and more. Thanks for that explanation. It makes total and complete sense to me what that would be important.

great company but with burning cash quartly, i don't know how this company can survive. Plus track record is no good........ ever since ipo, this is shit.....



High Risk, High Reward.....

no comment.......
I might daytrade the hell out of it.........

might pick up some shares on monday .....

[quote author=godofstock link=topic=8208.msg85044#msg85044

High Risk, High Reward.....

no comment.......
I might daytrade the hell out of it.........

might pick up some shares on monday .....

[/quote]



hardly a candidate for day trading. no volitlity and moves 10 cents in a day, if that.
i doubt you could " daytrade the hell out of it"
good luck
maxi

nutsterrt gave a good explanation to why a bullish cross of the 50 days above the 200 days simple moving average is technically important.

As for the MACD:

«The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) is calculated by subtracting the value of a 0.075 (26-period) exponential moving average from a 0.15 (12-period) exponential moving average.  A 9-period dotted exponential moving average (the "signal line") is automatically displayed on top of the MACD indicator line.»

And MACD's interpretation:

«The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its 9-period signal line.  Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line.»

QuotePlease also do not get me wrong, I love the concept of bluefly. My wife already loves bluefly too much (therefor my wallet doesn't) and I will have to do better on 3SOF just to afford all there stuff. lol

She's buying? Cool :)

From the calculus I've been making, BFLY share price will grow about 30% a year for the next 10 years. But it can go to $1 before it runs to $1.60 this year. You need to understand this is an investment, not a trade.

If I were to trade the stock I would have sold with a 20% profit in the first day I bought it. But I could never hold it for the long term, and get an estimated 30% average annual profit, if I tried to sell it and buy back lower. Somewhere along the way I would definitely lose my position.

I'll keep holding BFLY on the Main Portfolio whatever happens. Unless the business quarterly performance starts disappointing, there's no reason to sell it.

BFLY came down to touch the 50 days moving average as you can see on the chart below. I wonder if it will rally from this important technical support, and I'm feeling a bit of pain for not having sold when those weaker than expected December sales came out.

Anyway, my hands on BFLY are as strong as they can be. Like George Soros funds, I consider BFLY a long term investment. The minute I sell it, it may rally for a double.

I see sales rising year after year, through what I expect to be a very profitable sales channel. Amazon was a losing money proposition too, remember that?

I'll continue holding BFLY.

You're in good shape my friend  :D  The day is looking up for Bluefly...finally  ::)

Yep, good day for BFLY, back above the 9MA on good volume!
I just saw 127000 shares at the bid 1.21$!  ::)

BFLY has touched & bouncing from 50sma & trendline ;)

Yes, nice bounce from the 50 days SMA support :)

I must say that even I was surprised to see the stock rally, despite loving it so much. It even closed back above the $1.20 previous support, now resistance level. Let's see if it can hold above that level.

There weren't any news out ... let's check our business again: www.bluefly.com.

I'm expecting the new billing methods to be implemented in 2007 to drive up sales even more than 30%, since in 2006 they sold just 3% internationally, which doesn't make any sense to me. It should be about 50/50 between the US and the rest of the world.

I'll keep holding BFLY.

Looking good again today. Currently up 5.8% to 1.28...

Quote from: nutsterrt on January 24, 2007, 09:47:39 AM
Looking good again today. Currently up 5.8% to 1.28...

Yep, it closed at $1.25. I don't know if it will be able to sustain or rise from current levels, but as you know I see it rising 30% a year for the next 10 years, on a sustainable basis, so I'll keep holding BFLY.

Let me check my business today: www.bluefly.com.

Selling aggressively as usual. Nice.

BFLY has a strong balance sheet. Working capital is $36 M, current ratio is 3.57.

Cash in the bank is $17 M and there's no long term debt. Also no convertible debentures, not anymore.

Revenue growth is strong, at 30% a year for 6 years now. The only problem is the company isn't profitable yet. But it could be, if they didn't invest so much in future growth through advertising.

I believe management is doing the right thing, even though results aren't immediate.

I'll keep holding BFLY, the Amazon of fashion goods.

Of the 129,248,990 shares outstanding, 113,409,161 are held by 17 institutions that are strong hands. So, the public float is just 12.26% of the number of outstanding of BFLY.

This is good and bad. It reduces risk but it can also reduce potential, because probably no new institutional investor will be willing to push the price upwards.

Peter Lynch says on his book, "One up on Wall Street" that one should look for small and undiscovered companies, with not a lot of institutional ownership.

Anyway, the way I see it, the fundamental value always prevails, and I expect that to rise a lot in the future for BFLY, as you can acknowledge from reading this thread.

I'll keep holding BFLY as it keeps moving up and down around the $1.20 level.

David, what's the importance of this 8-k, anything of interest? Tia!

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html)

Quote from: Se7en on January 29, 2007, 02:36:19 PM
David, what's the importance of this 8-k, anything of interest? Tia!

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070125/bfly8-k.html)

Nothing special, they're exchanging a few convertible warrants that were still outstanding for restricted common shares.

BFLY continues to play around the once significant $1.20 technical level. Let's check our business today: www.bluefly.com

I'll keep holding BFLY the way George Soros does (of course, I wouldn't mind owning his 50.19 million shares :D)

Nothing new on BFLY today, back above $1.20. Let's check the store front today ... www.bluefly.com ... hmmm, it looks like they're changing something on the website just now, since all I see is a blank picture. Probably when you read this update everything will be allright.

I'll continue holding BFLY.

Breaking out, David! ;)

Quote from: Terliso on January 31, 2007, 05:15:21 PM
Breaking out, David! ;)

Yes Terliso, this is great :D

There was an SEC filing yesterday that explains the interest and volume on BFLY. It said the following:

«On January 27,  2007,  Alan Kane  resigned as a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board"), the Audit Committee and the Nominating Committee of Bluefly, Inc. (the  "Company").  Mr.  Kane also  served as the  non-executive  Chairman of the Board. Mr Kane served as a Board member since August 2002 and became Chairman in August 2004.  Mr Kane  advised the Company that he was  resigning as a result of his  appointment  to the  American  Eagle  Outfitters  (NASDAQ:  AEOS)  Board of Directors on January 25, 2007.

The Company will name a new Chairman at its regularly scheduled Board meeting on February 23, 2007.»

This is the market's recognition that BFLY's management is doing a good job, because Alan Kane is leaving for a much larger company, AEOS which is a $7.22 B market cap.

Investors always had doubts about management's skills, because they have been selling more and more but still were unable to show a profit. So this was kind of a relief rally. Let's see if the technical breakout brings in more and more buyers.

I don't think BFLY is undervalued, but it is a business that I love (www.bluefly.com) and want to hold for years to come.

Blue Sale at www.bluefly.com ends today at 6:30 AM ET, that's in about two and a half hours. Then they'll probably change the front window.

The stock fell back 2.34% yesterday, on low volume. It looks like a retest to a broken short term descending trendline, and the bullish trend will resume next.

We'll see, but you know, I won't sell this business whatever happens to the share price.

QuoteBlue Sale at www.bluefly.com ends today at 6:30 AM ET, that's in about two and a half hours. Then they'll probably change the front window.

No, it's still going, "Blue Sale" only ends on Wednesday: www.bluefly.com

Technically the stock is stable between $1.20 and $1.30. If it goes down, bargain hunters will pick shares. If it goes up towards $1.50, people will probably take profits.

But I'm expecting it to rise 30% a year, on average, for the next 10 years. And that's why I'm holding and will continue to hold BFLY (the reasoning for this long term investment can be assimilated by reading this entire thread).

BFLY is doing everything it can to push sales up on this shopping season, look at their website now: www.bluefly.com

Technically or fundamentally nothing changed, I'll keep holding BFLY.

There were no news out or new technical developments on BFLY, I'll continue holding the stock as a long term investment.

BFLY tried to rally yesterday, but couldn't run above the resistance level around $1.38. They just changed the front window: www.bluefly.com

I'll keep holding BFLY.

News!  :)

Bluefly Launches Risque New Advertising Campaign
Thursday February 8, 8:00 am ET 
Naked Dreams and Bared Emotions Inspire New Print Ads


NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bluefly, Inc., the leading fashion and lifestyle e-commerce website, today debuted its new spring print ad campaign to appear in top national media markets around the country. Bluefly infuses bold imagery into each ad, depicting naked women going about their days as though nothing is unusual, as though they are not naked to the world -- bringing to life one of the more common dreams we all have: literally being exposed for all to see.

The fact that these women go unnoticed provokes the questions; Has society become immune to nudity? Would a woman rather go undressed than poorly dressed?

Bluefly realizes that fashion plays a key role in self-expression. The clothing we choose to wear often defines who we are, or who we aspire to be. Bluefly celebrates the importance of individuality and recognizes that these personal choices affect how people feel about themselves and how others perceive them. Without that crucial form of expression, people are simply naked.

Undoubtedly, Bluefly will stimulate controversy with its use of nakedness to represent the importance of wardrobe choice. Melissa Payner, President and CEO of Bluefly, sums it up best when asked about the campaign "This campaign is not about nudity--it's about feeling naked, which is very different. These days more than ever, what you wear is inextricably linked to who you are. Without the 'right' clothes we experience an identity crisis. So our tagline 'That's Why I Bluefly' is the perfect antidote for this condition."

New York based advertising firm McCaffery Gottlieb & Lane worked with one of Europe's most famous photographers, Leif Schiller, to shoot Bluefly's spring advertising campaign. "Bluefly demands of us the highest standard of creative work," says Bill Lane, MGL Executive Creative Director. "That is both the challenge and the joy. And it allows us to work with the very best photographers and film directors in the world."

The Bluefly customer has a strong sense of style and seeks out the newest looks. The spring ad campaign embraces the state of nakedness because Bluefly recognizes that "naked" simply means a fresh slate, a new start. The ads invite the audience to distinguish what this means to them. Bluefly invites you to begin the exploration at www.bluefly.com.

Bluefly, Inc.

Founded in 1998, Bluefly, Inc. (NASDAQ SmallCap: BFLY - News) is a leading online retailer of designer brands, fashion trends and superior value. Bluefly is headquartered at 42 West 39th Street in New York City, in the heart of the Fashion District. For more information, please visit www.bluefly.com.

McCaffery Gottlieb Lane

McCaffery Gottlieb Lane is a highly effective communications agency that for over 25 years has helped companies of varying sizes attain visibility and "brand of choice" positions in their respective marketplaces. www.mglny.com.


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070208/20070208005322.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070208/20070208005322.html?.v=1)

Thanks for posting the news Se7en :)

I'm not a fashion obsessed, in fact, I couldn't care less, but I know there are millions of women and men that enjoy those products and would pay anything to have them, because of what that press release has written all over the place: the way you dress defines who you are.

I hope the advertising campaign goes well and brings revenues and profits to BFLY.

I think profits are around the corner for this company, with an average annual revenue growth of 30% in the past 5 years and probably in the next 10 years too.

I'll keep holding BFLY.

It looks like investors didn't like BFLY's new advertising campaign, because they sold off the stock. BFLY will keep hovering around the $1.20 level until there's some catalyst to take it decisively higher.

I'll keep holding this business like George Soros does.

BFLY closed unchanged and there were no news out. www.bluefly.com front window is the same as yesterday's. A business doesn't need to change everyday to slowly improve its long term value.

As you can read on this thread, I'm a believer in a global online retailer of fashion goods. BFLY is that company. I'll continue holding BFLY for the foreseeable future.

Nothing new on BFLY, except the store window that changed: www.bluefly.com

BFLY continues to be dead money, because the stock isn't cheap. Not cheap, but a great long term investment in my opinion.

They're selling just 3% internationally, but I expect this part of the business to grow a lot over the next couple of years, once they insert new ways of payment.

I see BFLY rising 30% a year for the next 10 years (on average), and I'll continue holding the stock as a long term investment.

BFLY closed below the 50 days SMA on low volume. I like today's store window: www.bluefly.com.

I'll keep holding BFLY on the perspective of the business owner.

Hmm, I'm finding it strange that BFLY's thread is getting so many "page views" lately. Suddenly you became more interested in this stock, because the price is 1.69% lower than my entry point?

I wouldn't pick stocks from the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) that way. Trends usually persist, and the biggest gainers of today will probably be the biggest gainers of tomorrow. Perhaps if I were to cover BFLY today I wouldn't think of it as such a great opportunity.

I mean, I love the concept of www.bluefly.com, and I do think BFLY can become the Amazon of fashion goods, but the valuation metrics unfortunately aren't that attractive and there's no short term catalyst to move it decisively higher, since the best quarter from a seasonal perspective is behind us (although EPS numbers were not yet reported, just revenue guidance).

If I worked harder and found more and more outstanding picks, probably I would have to let go of BFLY for a more promising opportunity from a short term perspective, something like OFI or CPNE.OB, for example.

I don't want to temper your long term optimism on BFLY, but if you're looking for a short term boost in performance, always go with the winners, not with the losers or so so stocks. You need to understand that the price you buy doesn't matter, what matters is: "will it go up after you buy?"

Anyway, I'll keep holding BFLY the way George Soros does.

Hi David, I'm still holding BFLY and I was wondering today when earnings would be? Earningswhisper showed 14 Feb but that wasn't the case, their last earnings were on 14 Nov 06, that's already more than 3 months ago! I decided to mail and call the company and they said that the announcement didn't hit businesswire yet but that earnings will probably be the 28th of this month!  :)
What do you expect from it? A blowout quarter?  ;D


the Earnings call announcement should be out shortly but is tentatively planned for 2/28/07.  I will add you to the distribution list in order that you directly receive the formal announcement and ongoing wall street communication once released.

BFLY closed above the 9, 50MA, 13 and 20 EMA on some increased volume, nice! :)
Technicals are pointing up with this nice candle, MACD is about to cross to positive territory, hopefully we'll get a little earnings run, but more important, good earnings!  ;)

Quote from: Se7en on February 20, 2007, 12:07:00 PM
Hi David, I'm still holding BFLY and I was wondering today when earnings would be? Earningswhisper showed 14 Feb but that wasn't the case, their last earnings were on 14 Nov 06, that's already more than 3 months ago! I decided to mail and call the company and they said that the announcement didn't hit businesswire yet but that earnings will probably be the 28th of this month!  :)
What do you expect from it? A blowout quarter?  ;D


the Earnings call announcement should be out shortly but is tentatively planned for 2/28/07.  I will add you to the distribution list in order that you directly receive the formal announcement and ongoing wall street communication once released.

No, no blowout quarter. BFLY already gave preliminary Q4 revenue numbers and they were just a bit light due to warm weather affecting December sales of coats and other winter clothes. I initially expected EPS of $0.01 for the quarter, but with the revenue numbers that they released in the beginning of January now I'm expecting something more like ($0.01) EPS.

You can read those estimates on page 4 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8208.45) of this thread.

But maybe Q1 guidance will be nice ;)

Thanks for getting that earnings release date, since this is an annual report, companies have more time than the usual 45 days to publish results.

I'll continue holding BFLY.

Earnings will be out next Wednesday, maybe they will give guidance for Q1 2007, that would be nice. Checking the business: www.bluefly.com. All right.

A small dip on BFLY as the market waits for earnings and conference call next Wednesday. I'll keep holding.

The market was somewhat disappointed when BFLY reported those weak December sales numbers (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070110/bluefly_sales.html?.v=1) and therefore a just a bit light 4th quarter revenue number. So I guess it can only be positively surprised when the company releases the full earnings report next Wednesday.

You know I'm a long term investor in BFLY, due to its terrific business (www.bluefly.com), and I'll continue holding it the way George Soros does.

I love this company, and if I'm rich I will buy this business and have a Branch set up in China ;D

bought 9000 shares on 2.26, will add more if the story develops :D

This is an interesting read. Soros fund holding as of Q4 2006 SEC filings (posted here due to the BFLY interest). It shows which holding have increased / decreased and also shows what other funds hold the same stocks. Interesting to see the mix of stocks being held. BFLY is in there, it represents 2.03% of the Soros Holding fund.

http://stockpickr.com/port/George-Soros/

Good Trading

Quote from: chinaguru on February 26, 2007, 11:35:41 PM
I love this company, and if I'm rich I will buy this business and have a Branch set up in China ;D

bought 9000 shares on 2.26, will add more if the story develops :D

Hi chinaguru, I hope you didn't have to pay $2.26 for each of your shares ;)

I hope you get rich and buy BFLY from us, but you would need to be very, very wealthy , because we wouldn't sell with anything less than 10 bags of profits :)

Quote from: AussieTrader on February 27, 2007, 01:25:45 AM
This is an interesting read. Soros fund holding as of Q4 2006 SEC filings (posted here due to the BFLY interest). It shows which holding have increased / decreased and also shows what other funds hold the same stocks. Interesting to see the mix of stocks being held. BFLY is in there, it represents 2.03% of the Soros Holding fund.

http://stockpickr.com/port/George-Soros/

Good Trading

Yep, cool link, thanks Aussie :)

This report was out yesterday:

«This is to confirm for you that the Company's Option Exchange Offer expired at 11:59 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, on February 23, 2007. Pursuant to the Offer, the Company accepted for exchange options to purchase an aggregate of 1,562,000 shares of our common stock, representing approximately 95% of the options for 1,652,000 shares that were eligible to be tendered in the Offer as of February 23, 2007. Subject to the terms and conditions of the Offer, the Company will grant a maximum of 472,471 Restricted Stock Awards in exchange for tendered eligible stock options that were vested as of August 31, 2006 and a maximum of 394,405 Deferred Stock Unit Awards in exchange for tendered eligible stock options that were not vested as of August 31, 2006.»

This isn't new, but it is a good thing that they're getting rid of options and other convertible stuff.

Earnings will be out tomorrow after the close, I'll continue holding BFLY.

 :D hahaha

my problem. I meant Feb 26, (yesterday)

I will add another 5000-8000 shares today. Thanks! David

 ::)not very happy yesterday, but did add more :-[

will load up more on dip with strong hands

I love BFLY's business and I wasn't planning to let go of it for long. But I guess a general market downturn (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9050.msg90421#msg90421) will take its revenue multiple down from 2 to 1.

I'll sell BFLY today.

Earnings (or lack thereof) out today

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070228/20070228006053.html?.v=1

David was close with the revenue prediction.  $77.1 mm vs. $75 mm.  Company still not profitable.  Lost 3 cents per share in Q4 on record revenue.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 14, 2006, 07:28:41 AM
Revenues are growing 28% a year, on average, since 2000. I expect revenues of $75 M for the full year 2006. ***

I don't like the fact that the company is still losing money, but, if it were profitable already probably the market cap would be a lot higher. The gross margin is improving rapidly, so perhaps they will turn a profit in 2007, they should:

sold PFSW, but still have this one, the news is OK, I think it will not go up in 1 or 2 weeks

QuoteDavid was close with the revenue prediction.  $77.1 mm vs. $75 mm.  Company still not profitable.  Lost 3 cents per share in Q4 on record revenue.

I was expecting just 1 cent per share loss, not 3 cents. It puzzles me a bit why they keep losing money even though sales are rising steadily. I guess it is because they're spending a lot on advertising looking to add new costumers.

I love the business, and balance sheet is strong after that preferred shares conversion, I'm just not sure about the valuation, it seems just a bit high at 2 times revenues.

I'll look to buy back BFLY, hopefully at lower levels (say $0.70 - $0.80?), but I can be wrong and you holding can be right, good luck :)

QuoteI was expecting just 1 cent per share loss, not 3 cents. It puzzles me a bit why they keep losing money even though sales are rising steadily. I guess it is because they're spending a lot on advertising looking to add new costumers.

I love the business, and balance sheet is strong after that preferred shares conversion, I'm just not sure about the valuation, it seems just a bit high at 2 times revenues.

I'll look to buy back BFLY, hopefully at lower levels (say $0.70 - $0.80?), but I can be wrong and you holding can be right, good luck :)

I used to love this business, www.bluefly.com. My wife and her coworkers still love it (but from a consumer, not an investor perspective. Shouldn't it be the same? Well, not always). Yet I sold the stock at $1.14 and rightly so. I see now that they continued to lose money (they reported a $5 M loss in Q3 2007) and revenue growth slowed.

Of course I'll keep it under the radar, I want to know and follow as many stocks as possible. If not to make money, at least for fun ... (one has to be crazy to study stocks for fun hahaha)

By the way ... George Soros also makes mistakes, he's losing a ton (well, for him it's peanuts) in BFLY.

BFLY made a 1 for 10 reverse stock split and the ticker symbol will be BFLYD for 20 trading days:

Bluefly Completes 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080404/20080404005119.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri, Apr 4)

Investors have been quite pessimistic about online retailers that make money, let alone losing money propositions like BFLY.

Hmm, BFLY lost $5 M in Q4 07 (the seasonally strongest quarter) and had just $6 M in cash at the end of the quarter. I wonder if the reverse split isn't just to dilute shareholders value all the way down, because they're in desperate need for cash. It looks that way, at first sight.

In a few days I'll have my chart updates, there's no need to change the ticker symbol.