1. Introduction
I've seen HAUP's thread on the Stock Picking board being kind of active, but never really had the time or interest to take a look at it. But today the stock has come up on my technical filter with a strong bullish technical signal.
So I can't close my eyes to it anymore, let's make a full coverage on HAUP.
2. Profile
Hauppauge Digital, Inc. (HAUP) engages in the engineering, development, manufacture, and marketing of products for the personal computer and home entertainment markets. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HAUP))
3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30750;image)
You know that I'm starting to love these technology stocks that survived the tech bubble collapse?
3.2. Medium Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30751;image)
The medium term chart shows HAUP is now fighting with a resistance level. The sustainability of the current rise makes me believe it will indeed breakout above $7.20 on close.
3.3. Short Term Chart
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30752;image)
HAUP closed a bit above the short term resistance of $6.95 with volume much higher than average. It looks like a technical buy signal was just given. Let's also make some fundamental tests.
4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30753;image)
I'm almost perplexed to see there wasn't any dilution at all since 1997. This means this small technology company not only survived, it did so without any help from investors.
The current market cap is $67.46 M.
4.2. Liquidity
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30754;image)
HAUP's balance sheet is clean, no long term debt.
4.3. Revenues
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30755;image)
Look at the astounding revenue growth since 2002. And I believe, given the company's business model, the best is yet to come without a doubt.
What seems incredible is that this hot technology company is trading at $67.46 M/$97.7 M = 0.69 times trailing revenues :o
The Computer Peripherals industry average Price to Sales Ratio is 2.4.
4.4. Profits
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30756;image)
Profitable for the last three years. The trailing earnings multiple is $6.99/$0.24 = 29. That's about the industry average (but HAUP is much better than average. It is in a sweet spot of a global trend, as we'll see).
5. General Overview
Both technical analysis and fundamental analysis say HAUP is a very attractive stock to buy.
Now check their website and tell me if a company that is selling these products worldwide can be valued at just $67 M:
http://www.hauppauge.com/
The current trend to video on the internet, PC's and mobile devices won't stop soon. It is the hottest industry out there at this moment. And here lies HAUP, trading below revenues and profitable, enjoying the exponential growth of the online video mania.
There's no doubt in my mind that HAUP will go higher, much higher than current levels.
6. Trading Plan
The plan is to buy HAUP between $6.95 and $7.30, today, 6.66% of capital as usual.
Heres a link to the companys website...
http://www.hauppauge.com/
In here at 7.00, a little worried about a gap fill, but I bought a little less than I normally would so that I can add to my position in that event.
Nice pick, David!
It may hurt me short term but I'm going to try to get in a little lower. The markets have been weak all week and today should continue that run lower. Especially if the open is any indication. :)
OK, I'm in at 6.90. Good luck to us all!
Quote from: tokyopua on December 22, 2006, 09:49:28 AM
In here at 7.00, a little worried about a gap fill, but I bought a little less than I normally would so that I can add to my position in that event.
Nice catch tokyopua, much better than my entry price at $7.17. I wouldn't worry too much about the short term, or that gap below.
Quote from: basonista on December 22, 2006, 10:09:47 AM
Nice pick, David!
It may hurt me short term but I'm going to try to get in a little lower. The markets have been weak all week and today should continue that run lower. Especially if the open is any indication. :)
I wouldn't think too much about the short term, I'd ratter focus on the fundamentals of the company.
I've been reading the entire 10-Q to see if there's anything under the carpet, but no, can't find anything that justifies the current undervaluation, perhaps just the low average liquidity of the stock (which is increasing now).
The company's Q1 (that is, the October - December quarter) is always the strongest, and with the online video mania picking up steam, I see the current quarter being a blowout quarter, breaking all previous quarters numbers. You see, the company was already growing nicely, but nothing like what I'm expecting going forward.
This can also be seen in the company's geographical sales, with the US growing from 36% two years ago to 51% this latest quarter. Why? You guys are ahead on online video content than us in Europe. I believe that's the reason.
The company has its products for sale in major retailers:
Where to buy (http://www.hauppauge.com/pages/buy/wtob_us.html)
I guess the intraday weakness can be explained by the $7.17 short term resistance level (it was the high on December 2005), but I'm pretty positive fundamentals will make the stock break $7.17 shortly.
Good luck :)
Ok, let's give it a try. I'm in @ $6.9778 to be precise ;D
Excellent DD David. Thank you.
I am thinking that the big buyers are waiting for the stock-flippers to go away so that they can start investing heavily like they did at the start of 2004. I believe HAUP will trend upwards with few spikes up and down. I also believe that we will ses $10 - $14 within the next 3 months.
I suspect that there are a few suicidal shorts trying to short the stock. The more the merrier as far as I am concerned. They obviously have not researched this stock as much as you have.
In my opinion HAUP is at a point where it is starting to really gain some momentum in revenues and net income. My estimate for 2007 is $110M in revenues and 50c/share net income. The nice thing about HAUP is that it keeps increasing its cash position every quarter while maintaining ZERO long term debt. HAUP now has almost $1/share cash.
Hi rayongthai, congrats on picking HAUP :)
Revenues were $42 M in 2002, $50 M in 2003, $65 M in 2004, $78 M in 2005 and $97.7 M in 2006, as you can see on the graph below:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30755;image)
This means the average annual revenue growth rate for these five years was:
42*(X^5) = 97.7 <=> X^5 = 2.3262 <=> X = (2.3262)^(1/5)
<=>X = 18.39%
So, if the growth rate stays the same, revenues for fiscal 2007 will be $97.7 M*1.1839 = $115.67 M, so I think you're being conservative on your $110 M revenue estimate.
But I think the growth rate will accelerate, and by leaps and bounds, here's why:
Until now people didn't have much necessity to watch TV on their PC's or mobile devices. Sure, there was some need, but there are TV's everywhere and image quality is superior. But with this video sharing and video content mania on the internet, there will be much more need for the peripherals the company sells.
For example, I may hear something on CNBC, for example, Cramer bashing DIVX lol and I want to show that to you. If I had this peripheral, I could be recording CNBC and then slice the part that I want and upload it on youtube.com or Google Video and put it here on this message board.
Now imagine people all over the world sending pieces of TV to their friends. For example "watch this news on CNN", or "watch this joke from Jay Lenno". I think that as time goes by, video is replacing text on the internet. We won't be sending links with big texts to each other, we'll be sending video-clips, many of them captured from TV's. Another example that I can think of is my nephew recording skate maneuvers from radical TV channels and sending out to his friends.
Anyway, the message is, the landscape for HAUP's products is changing. Demand can be unprecedented from past levels.
We sure hope so ;)
Bravo!!!
I agree 100% on your visionary comments.
Why would a multibillion $$ conglomerate like D&M Holdings would dedicate a page of its company update to investors last month to the HAUP/Replay TV offering???....and call it "Growth Opportunity??."
D&M owns industry flagships such as Denon, Marantz, McIntosh, Boston Acoustics, Snell Acoustics, Escient, and Replay TV...........some think that HAUP could be next. D&M has aquired the majority of the companies it owns this decade.
Looks like HAUP is ready to breakout. The $7 resistance has been removed. Many people will become aware of HAUP over the weekend. We could see a powerful breakout next week.
QuoteI agree. The only real competition to HAUP is ATI. Being that I was in IT for a while...i tested both products and HAUP is much faster, cleaner/clearer and has very few problems. We use HAUP over ATI here at work. Over the past years, I watched HAUP gain more market share over ATI in the TV/video capture products. Very similar to how Dell surpassed Gateway or Wal-mart over K-Mart back in the days. ATI is the leader in the graphic card technology, but HAUP is winning the market in the video capture world. That's my two cents. Good Luck guys!
Great info kpunarc :) Can you tell me a bit more about ATI, I'm sure it isn't a stock symbol, is it the full name of a company? Is it publicly traded? Thanks !
QuoteLooks like HAUP is ready to breakout. The $7 resistance has been removed. Many people will become aware of HAUP over the weekend. We could see a powerful breakout next week.
Yes, but easy rayongthai, this way it looks like you're trying to pump the stock and you lose all your credibility. Watch how you've been talking about HAUP on the Stock Picking Board and nobody paid attention, do you know why? Because you write like a pumper.
We're all intelligent people here, I know you are too and you seem to have market knowledge, so please stop with the pumping attitude.
Thank you, watch how your rating is going up ;)
(oops, there was some mistake on this post, instead of writing a new one I was modifying kpunarc's post, fortunately I made a complete quote of what he wrote, because it is valuable information - sorry for this)
David ATI Technologies is a company that makes chips for the video technology area. It was a hot stock last year. They are a competitor of NVDA but they were bought out by AMD a couple months back Their symbol used to be ATYT.
Overview
ATI Technologies' technologies let computer screens radiate reality. ATI vies with NVIDIA and Intel as the world's top supplier of computer graphics chips and boards. Its popular RADEON graphics chips incorporate 3-D and 2-D graphic and video acceleration for enhancing visuals on PC and Macintosh platforms, and its ALL-IN-WONDER products integrate graphics, video, and TV tuner features on a single add-in card. ATI's customers include IBM and Nintendo; it also markets its PC upgrade cards to consumers through retail outlets. AMD has acquired ATI for about $5.4 billion in cash and stock.
Hi David and Rayong,
I am just back from a Christmas dinner. Not quite sober but when I was sober (before the market opened) I had a small talk with David about HAUP.
Quote from: David Randolph on December 22, 2006, 01:52:41 PM
Yes, but easy rayongthai, this way it looks like you're trying to pump the stock and you lose all your credibility. Watch how you've been talking about HAUP on the Stock Picking Board and nobody paid attention, do you know why? Because you write like a pumper.
We're all intelligent people here, I know you are too and you seem to have market knowledge, so please stop with the pumping attitude.
Thank you, watch how your rating is going up ;)
I know exactly how David is feeling. I also thought that this was a pump and dump business before I had a closer look. As I said on 3SOF free:
Quote from: Michael on December 21, 2006, 01:19:34 PM
Hmmmm... Much to my surprise I actually like this stock. Kind of reminds me about DivX.
The financials looks interesting and the chart as well.
This might be a pump and dump in which case I am the garbage can because I have just put a very generous offer in the market.
One of the lessons I have learned on 3SOF is that your credibility is of paramount importance. On most boards you can just post bullish messages every 2 minutes under different alias. That doesn't work here. We all know each other (this might sound a bit stupid as we now have more than 8000 members but stay around and you will know what I mean)!
That is why I honestly was surprised when I saw the real value in HAUP. As some of you know I were 95% in cash up to this point. Not anymore! I see the same potential in Hauppauge that I saw in XING, GIGM and KOMG. A company with a very healthy balance sheet, strong growth, increasing earnings and close to ridiculous valuation. But these companies have one more thing in common. They are all benefiting from the new trend of sharing experiences online.
Whereas the last couple of years have been about sharing experiences via text messaging and voice the coming years will be devoted to pictures and Video. As David said:
Quote from: David Randolph on December 22, 2006, 07:39:31 AM
The current trend to video on the internet, PC's and mobile devices won't stop soon. It is the hottest industry out there at this moment. And here lies HAUP, trading below revenues and profitable, enjoying the exponential growth of the online video mania.
HAUP seems ideally positioned to take advantage of the trend. They are a clear leader in the TV to PC business and their revenue and earnings growth shows that this is the right place place to be! Both Microsoft and Apple have launched Video "IPOD's" (using STX and KOMG technologies!) and if you want to watch TV on your IPOD ...... Hmmmmm.... You need WinTV, which happens to be supplied by..... HAUP.
The market value of HAUP is 68 million USD. Is that fair value? I don't think so....
It is Christmas and unfortunately 3SOF can't send Christmas gifts to all the members but I think that HAUP could be the Christmas gifts that we have all been waiting for.
Merry Christmas!
I got in yesterday...I guess I was a step ahead of the pick ;D
Besides HAUP...I went a little crazy buying yesterday...BFLY, NIHK, ONT, SKNN, and ITUI.
I also own F, ARTG, SIM, SAI and VKSY (not sure if I should have listened to the little birdy that told me to buy this one).
Interesting note: SKNN - I showed my wife who is Japanese the Skins website
http://www.skinsfootwear.com/ (http://www.skinsfootwear.com/) and she really thought it was a great concept and long term investment.
She seems to know style trends well, and she is also big on Coach, Burberry, PacSun, and American Eagle Outfitters. So we will see if SKNN has some potential. To bad I can't dress...all I need is shorts to play Handball. LOL
If I can get out of SIM, SAI, and VKSY without losing money.....I will buy more of HAUP, ONT, and SKNN. I would love to get some FRPT on some profit taking also.
I apologize for sounding a bit over-excited about HAUP.
I've owned this stock for over a year and I currently own several of its products. Some of my friends in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand really enjoy HAUP products as well...i understand that there are waiting lists for some of those products. HAUP has recently stepped up its efforts to gain market share in the lucrative and growing Asia region. The recent deals with Replay TV, and other OEMs in the region will go a long way to fulfill that goal. Having one of its R&D branches in Taipei is critical in understanding the likes and dislikes of the people in the region. If you've ever been ar a mall in Singapore and Bangkok you will understand the apetite this people have for having the latest technological guizmo no matter how much it costs.
Happy holidays to all
QuoteGreat info kpunarc Smiley Can you tell me a bit more about ATI, I'm sure it isn't a stock symbol, is it the full name of a company? Is it publicly traded? Thanks !
Yea, apparently ATI Technologies got bought out by "AMD" (Advanced Micro Devices) which i'm sure you know is the biggest competitor of Intel. ATI symbol is ATY.TO and is publicly traded on some Canadian exchange. AMD is definitely coming up in the works. I do know this that most 'computer nerds' (like myself) tend to prefer AMD over Intel because of its efficiency, speed and reliability over Intel. Intel is only able to stay as THE leader because of its significant deals with all the computer manufacturers (Dell, Gateway, HP..etc.). Very similar to how Microsoft has its edge with its 'Windows' OS even though it's reliability is not as high caliber as the Linux OS. (I'm sure Ramsburg knows more details as well about this stuff since he's the web genius behind 3SOF). I hope this answers your question. I definitely hope to contribute more as time goes by. baby steps. =p I really appreciate you and Thanks for your response!
Quote from: rayongthai on December 22, 2006, 10:05:21 PM
I apologize for sounding a bit over-excited about HAUP.
If you just were over-excited about HAUP, we all could understand that, but that isn't the case.
You've been hyping, spamming and dealing in duplicity under countless screen names.
When you were posting under the name monzoni007 and also the name Hauppycamper, I banned Hauppycamper and gave you a warning to post under ONE screen name only.
You then posted for one day in the HAUP folder as Pornito6969.
tHEN, December 4, you showed up as rayongthai in the HAUP folder, sounding the innocent newbie, wondering where HAUP was going long-term:
Quote from: rayongthai on December 04, 2006, 09:21:58 AM
This one sounds great. But am too late for this party?
I don't know T/A since I am a newbie. Can someone predict where this one could go long term? Thank you
Then you very quickly created the "sense of urgency," as every good con artist does:
Quote from: rayongthai on December 04, 2006, 11:20:59 AM
i GUESS I HAVE TO GO FOR THE ASK HERE. NO ONE SEEMS TO SELL AND THE BUY PRESSURE GETS STRONGER BY THE MINUTE
Classic "Hurry up and pay any price" to get into HAUP, you wanted to own it so badly.
Now you tell us:
Quote
I've owned this stock for over a year
Same old tricks as Wiseman, and all of your other incarnations.
I don't understand what your game is, but you're definitely scamming us with all of these roles that you're playing in illiquid stocks (also PNS and NYER).
As I said in the HAUP folder on The Stock Picking Board, your posts aren't without merit as far as the fundamentals "appear," but looking at the chart, and at how HAUP has been pumped and summarily dumped on SIX occasions over the past six years since it crashed from $50 to 1.25 in early 2001, and reading your intraday posts, hyping the stock, I'm mighty suspicious about this current "pump" phase in the stock.
As you pointed out, Cramer mentioned the 70% run-up in HAUP in December, 2005 (it then fell 50%), so this isn't an "undiscovered" stock, and it certainly isn't undiscovered by the momo boys, given all of the pumping and dumping in it over the past six years.
David and Michael both have looked at the fundamentals, which counts for a lot with me because they both are very good and dedicated to their work, but my concern is that there's something else going on with this stock, given the very clear history in the chart below, of pumping and dumping.
As I said before, yes, this stock has big rallies, but most or all of the gains have been given back on EVERY occasion.
This is a very illiquid stock. In the two days prior to earnings, it traded only 35,700 shares and 28,300 shares, respectively, so everyone please be aware that the price easily can be manipulated, and that it can be difficult to get out of it.
The current picture on the fundamental front could be the "real deal," and this stock could be a huge winner. I have absolutely no idea, so please don't mistake my comments as being negative on HAUP. I'm not at all negative on the company itself.
My concern is for the 3SOF community ONLY. Several members were hurt last year in Wiseman "pump and dump stocks" that sounded very, very good, fundamentally. Wiseman pumped them into earnings, then the stocks got trashed after the earnings pump.
On one occasion, Wiseman (or one of his incarnations) later posted that he sold the stock prior to the crash, but all the while, he kept pumping it.
Quote from: Michael on December 22, 2006, 05:58:00 PM
This might be a pump and dump in which case I am the garbage can because I have just put a very generous offer in the market.
I certainly hope that isn't the case, Michael. Thank you for you work on HAUP.
Quote
One of the lessons I have learned on 3SOF is that your credibility is of paramount importance. On most boards you can just post bullish messages every 2 minutes under different alias. That doesn't work here. We all know each other (this might sound a bit stupid as we now have more than 8000 members but stay around and you will know what I mean)!
Yes, I know what you mean. We "have each other's backs," as Snowy says. We don't scam each other, which is how I have felt about this situation.
Good luck, everyone. I hope that this stock is as good as it sounds, and that it's a winner for all of you playing it.
Good one Melf- thanks for watching out!!
Glad to see you are a moderator on the site, not in this one( HAUP) but I try to make it a point to read all your comments and analysis.
I hope your new duties don't impact your great posts!
I guess everytime Melf Elf sells a stock he DUMPS and everytime he buys he PUMPS. LOL
His HAUP chart is simply ridiculous. I can't believe that a seemingly intelligent person would spend hours drawing cute little pump and dump arrows on a chart everytime the stock goes up or down simply because he does not like a poster or a stock. Actually, his generalizations are in my opinion irresponsible because it undermines the DD that some people do on a stock like HAUP before they invest in it. It also downplays the hard work on hundreds of HAUP employees worldwide working hard to build a first class organization with a second to none technology.
Happy Holidays Elf
Quote from: rayongthai on December 23, 2006, 09:34:26 AM
I guess everytime Melf Elf sells a stock he DUMPS and everytime he buys he PUMPS. LOL
His HAUP chart is simply ridiculous. I can't believe that a seemingly intelligent person would spend hours drawing cute little pump and dump arrows on a chart everytime the stock goes up or down simply because he does not like a poster or a stock. Actually, his generalizations are in my opinion irresponsible because it undermines the DD that some people do on a stock like HAUP before they invest in it. It also downplays the hard work on hundreds of HAUP employees worldwide working hard to build a first class organization with a second to none technology.
Happy Holidays Elf
I'm sorry ray, but I have to smite you for your comments. No, wait. I'm not sorry. You have been a member here, under this name, for less than a month and Melf has been here almost since the first day 3sof has existed. His analysis are always indepth and without bias and are of a quality higher than 99% of the posts on these boards. You should be ashamed of yourself attacking him that way when he is right (already applauded). Look at the chart and see for yourself that each of the last 2 years, HAUP has gone up right before Christmas and immediately fallen down close to previous lows. And so far, it is following the same pattern. This may not be a true pump and dump but let history be your guide and stop polluting these boards with your baseless accusations and trash.
For all of our sakes, I hope HAUP isn't going to crash again but thanks to Melf, I'll be more attentive to that possibility. As which you should if you are here to be a true T2T and have an open mind. Man, it really infuriates me to see crap posts like that, ray that don't do anything to help our cause but to hinder it. >:(
If you dissagree with his analysis then say that and say why with your own DD. Just don't sit there and make it a personal attack which helps no one. You are a paying member here so be a contributer not a degrader.
Actually Ray, all you need to do is say you don't post under multiple names. Then, there is only the matter of whether or not it can be proven. I assume it can be or Melf wouldn't be ignorant enough to make the accusation. My guess is you won't deny it knowing that. Nice attempt at damage control though, diverting the subject away from the point being made.
I'd like people to buy my picks, hopefully causing them to go up, but it really isn't worth deceiving people to do it. You die with more money, but less character. Good luck with that strategy because any success you have with it will be be paid back to you in spades. You really do reap what you sow.
Save the "I really believe in Haup" message, because oddly enough I believe thats likely true. No need to convince me of that. If you haven't posted uder the names you are accused of, taking on a different identity in name and tenor, then I apologize in advance.
Excellent post Melf Elf!
Excellent post Melf Elf, that's what makes 3stocksonfire the best trader website! Unlike the yahoo message board which is full of nutcases, this site consists of people who truly care and look after each other! I have been with this site since the begining, but rarely post since i poor time managment (I'm too busy reading everyone's posts! ;D)
Anyways, in regards to HAUP, I do believe this is a good play since I believe their technology is finally begining to pay off. Yes it ran up last year around the same time and fell afterwards, but that's because people bought before earnings thinking it was going to be good and instead they posted a loss and the stock fell. here's a comment from the Dec. 23, 2005 Street.com article regarding HAUP's 2005 earnings:
December 23, 2005
"Shares of Hauppage Digital (HAUP:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) slid after the company said it swung to a fourth-quarter loss on a 7% year-over-year decline in revenue. The maker of television parts lost $864,371, or 9 cents a share, in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with earnings of $119,261, or 1 cent a share, a year ago. Sales were $15.4 million in the latest quarter compared with $16.5 million a year ago. The company said its gross margin fell from 25.6% to 21.7% in the latest quarter, primarily reflecting higher sales of lower margin OEM products. Hauppage shares fell 84 cents, or 13%, to $5.56. "
This year, however, they recorded a profit even after stock expenses. I believe the run is different this year and will continue since TV on PC is now becoming very popular. I honest believe that one day more people will watch more TV programs from their computer since the computer is becoming a dominant factor in everyone's life.
Good Luck and Happy Holidays everyone! With David back, I believe 2007 will be a great year for the 3stocksonfire team. ;D
Quote from: mbaugh on December 23, 2006, 02:31:13 PM
TV on PC is now becoming very popular. I honest believe that one day more people will watch more TV programs from their computer since the computer is becoming a dominant factor in everyone's life.
I am one of them....I'm watching TV on my PC & recording TV shows, sports in my Terabyte hard drive for over a year now.... I'm using the hardware HAUP product as the encoder & a software called Beyond TV... check it out for yourself ;)
http://store.snapstream.com/btv-analog.html
rayongthai:
Your comments are way out of line. The chart speaks for itself but on top
of that you were exposed by a respectable member and all you have to do
is quit acting as you having been doing.
I've been around also for more than a year now and we all know who is who
Happy Xmas to everybody and kind regards to Melf.
I am a long term investor and I have pay attention to your pick recently. The stocks you pick are always low outstanding shares which will increase the price once volume build up. And also you pick low market cap company which I have to say is RISKY to newbie investors.
So if I was to stick around with your pick, I would daytrade because it too risky to hold long term while there is nothing valuable I can get for holding on.
I have not try one of their products so I don't know how good is it. I surely like logitech products. (LOGI)
this I dont know because I have never use it. Maybe I will go down to best buy and buy one of their MediaMPV and try it out. If its good, then I will buy the stock. If it suck dick, I will return it and won't invest. Hows that sound.
im gonna be honest ive had a couple drinks tonight so im not gonna go into detail about anything cuz i would probably say something i would regret.................... ::)
But melf....... as always..... Applauds on your post. you clearly stated the truth from a TA point of view on this stock. Every time it has rallied it moved up 100% or more and quickly drops back to where it started from. So even though dave and mike hold a fundamental bullish opinion, which i fully respect, I even more so i respect the movement of a chart and history tends to repeat itself so if it were me i would be cautious if this stock has a technical breakdown again. And as mike said, we all know each other here and were all friends. We state our opinions and of course there is a little bias in all of us. But we say what we think not to try and convince somebody to do otherwise, but to make a truthful point and possibly help one another out.
To ray and godofstock,you guys are both new here and this is a great message board and i hope that you treat the people here with the respect that they deserve for the amount of time and effort and knowledge they provide. Im not gonna smite either of you because theres just too much negative around this subject in the first place. Instead im going to give each of you an applaud and encourage you guys to get to know the neighborhood here and fit in so we can all benefit from our experience here. To godofstock if your wondering why i mentioned you. I didn't think you post was all that bad until i read
Quote from: godofstock on December 24, 2006, 05:42:00 AM
If it suck dick, I will return it and won't invest. Hows that sound.
I mean hey if we knew you a little better than sure, it might be a "little" humerous. But for posting 8 times and saying something like that it just seems a little immature.
Anyways i guess i went into a little more detail than i thought. But i wish you guys and everyone else here the best as we head on into 07. Lets hope for a great year. 06 was pretty rough for a while there............... :o
Merry Xmas! or i guess i should say Happy holidays lol, im not even religious >:D
This thread was going a bit out of hand because rayongthai and godofstock are new to the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium service so they didn't know this message board was different.
This particular board exists for me to initiate the threads that justify the recommendations of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) and the following daily updates. Premium Members can post questions or comments and I'll address them with great joy.
But of course this has always been, and will always continue to be, made with great mutual respect.
rayongthai and godofstock weren't paying subscribers yet, they were just making a 14 days free trial. But the free trial works both ways. People experience and judge the service but I also judge if they can be Premium subscribers. In this case the 3 SOF team decided it would be better to take these two out of the Premium Service, even though their free trial had some more days to run.
I know Melf Elf's comments on rayongthai are the truth, but I think he could be recovered (the man looks like he has two personalities ;D). Perhaps a few weeks later I'll give him another chance (if he chooses to pay for the service, of course).
I'll do the daily update for HAUP on the following post, we don't want to mix these issues with the analysis.
It's nice to have Michael on board:
QuoteThat is why I honestly was surprised when I saw the real value in HAUP. As some of you know I were 95% in cash up to this point. Not anymore! I see the same potential in Hauppauge that I saw in XING, GIGM and KOMG. A company with a very healthy balance sheet, strong growth, increasing earnings and close to ridiculous valuation. But these companies have one more thing in common. They are all benefiting from the new trend of sharing experiences online.
Whereas the last couple of years have been about sharing experiences via text messaging and voice the coming years will be devoted to pictures and Video.
QuoteInteresting note: SKNN - I showed my wife who is Japanese the Skins website
http://www.skinsfootwear.com/ and she really thought it was a great concept and long term investment.
She seems to know style trends well, and she is also big on Coach, Burberry, PacSun, and American Eagle Outfitters. So we will see if SKNN has some potential. To bad I can't dress...all I need is shorts to play Handball. LOL
Thanks for your wife's view on SKNN, HANDBALLJIM :) But I would be somewhat cautious with that stock, you know not always a great concept or idea is a great stock to buy. Particularly I see dilution coming on SKNN (their balance sheet tells me so). You can read my full take on SKNN here: SKNN analysis (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7501.msg80619#msg80619) (I can be wrong, good luck)
Now I would like to address some of Melf Elf's concerns about HAUP being a recurrent pump and dump story.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30816;image)
Of course, phase 1 was due to the technology speculative bubble of late 1999 and early 2000. Phase 2 was due to the explosion of that bubble.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=30817;image)
Phase 3 can be explained by the company's revenue increases in Q4 2003 and Q1 2004. Q4 2003 was the best quarter in the company's history until that date, with $0.11 EPS, so people thought the business model was starting to get traction. But no, revenues declined again and EPS went from $0.11 in a quarter to an average of $0.015 the following quarters. Shares went down on phase 4 (but never below the previous lows).
Phase 5 was again due to a revenue and profit recovery, this time to $0.13 EPS on Q4 2004. Unfortunately revenues went down again and the company reported a loss of ($0.09) per share in Q3 2005 (that explains phase 6).
Phase 7 was mostly due to news of new products. It was made with just a few strong up days. Technically the rise wasn't sustainable. The stock went down on phase 8, but again, to a higher low when compared to phase 6.
Now we're on phase 9, and this time the rise looks much more sustainable from a technical point of view.
Fundamentals also look more promising than the last time the stock was around current levels. One thing is certain: if this is a pump and dump stock it's not the company's fault, because there wasn't any dilution since 1997. That means, the company didn't have any interest in pumping their shares.
kpunarc, mbaugh and Terliso's comments tell me HAUP's products have quality. I believe we're in a turning point for this industry of peripherals that enable TV on PC's and other mobile equipments. Fundamentals will probably continue to improve and the stock will follow.
Merry Christmas :)
Boatguy, Basonista, Oicpecnoc, ygtrader, mbough gorgegr and fous,
Thanks for your understanding of my concerns, which were about rayongthai and the possible pumping and dumping in this stock, not the company HAUP itself. Applauded you all.
David, you did a lot of hard work (as always) looking into the various phases of trading in this stock over the past six years! Applause. It sounds like a very plausible explanation, too.
Even if HAUP has been the victim of pumping and dumping over the past six years, that's not in any way a negative reflection on the company itself. That happens, particularly in low float stocks, and the company itself is as much a victim as the shareholders are when that occurs.
That's similar to "short raids" in a stock, or in my mind, to analysts' upgrades and downgrades, when they "pile on."
The fact that the fundamentals in HAUP look to be improving, thanks to the research of David, Michael and other 3 SOF members is reassuring, so we'll all watch it, just like we would any other stock.
David, you handled the rayongthai situation very well. Thank you. I totally agree: that particular situation is completely separate from anything to do with HAUP.
Good luck to everyone in HAUP. I hope that it's a huge winner.
Hmmm... this has become the most active thread at 3SOF :o I would like to think that it is because of HAUP's superior products and great potentials but ......
So lets re-focus and talk a bit about the fundamentals :)
Much of the attention has been on HAUP's TV tuner cards for good reasons. Hauppauge is the leader in this fast growing industry. Check out
Microsofts windows marketplace (http://www.windowsmarketplace.com/results.aspx?collid=98&sortby=pop&order=d#sort) This list is sorted on popularity and Hauppauge takes Gold and Silver in this fast growing industry >:D
The TV tuner cards could justify a stock price in the teens but here at 3SOF we try to find exceptional value and what made HAUP stand out for me is the deal with Replay TV.
Replay TV is a direct competitor to Tivo. They are both offering PVR's which is enhancing the TV viewing experience:
Here is a good description of:
the concept from Hal Plotkin (http://www.halplotkin.com/SFGate052.htm)a Correspondent for CNBC. It is a bit old but I think that what he describes is what is happening today (even in Africa!).
Let me quote:
QuoteDVRs are destined to become a must-own consumer electronics item, particularly as prices fall. I don't know anyone who has one who would ever willingly go back to watching TV the old-fashioned way.
Imagine to be able to see a TV show, skip the commercials, play the highlights in slow-motion and at the same time record your favorite show that are playing on an alternative channel. This is what PVR is offering you. Well it sounds good for me!
TIVO is valued at 500 million USD even though they have never earned a single dollar. That tells me that the investment community believe in the potential.
TIVO is still not profitable because they subsidize the hardware to cash in on recurring revenue streams. I am sure Replay TV is doing the same and I like that ::)
You see the hardware is supplied by HAUP and if somebody is willing to subsidize the hardware why would I complain.
Replay TV seems to be a much better option than TIVO at least from a cost point of view. The cost of ownership for one year with TIVO is USD 199 and for Replay TV USD 99.95. and the
features (http://pvrcompare.com/featurechart.html) seems very similar.
So lets summarize:
We have a technology that is destined to become a must-own consumer electronics item and we have a very well capitalized company (
Replay TV (http://www.replaytv.com/buynow.asp)) that are willing to subsidize the product in order to put it into every household. The technology is supplied by a company which is trading at a PE of 29 is growing earnings rapidly and has a market cap of 68 million USD.
As said before this might be a pump and dump story. I can't wait for the dump to start. I am the garbage can and I am only half full!
Quote from: Michael on December 25, 2006, 01:57:46 PM
Replay TV seems to be a much better option than TIVO at least from a cost point of view. The cost of ownership for one year with TIVO is USD 199 and for Replay TV USD 99.95. and the features (http://pvrcompare.com/featurechart.html) seems very similar.
$199 for subscription in TIVO?? no wonder the company does not make money...
If you want to save some bucks just buy the
BEYOND TV4 software & HAUP TV tuner card & hook it up to your PC with your plasma TV.... No subscription fees, Beyond TV 4.5 is way much better than TIVO & Replay TV... ;) :D ;D
http://www.snapstream.com/products/beyondtv/
Quote from: Terliso on December 25, 2006, 02:40:41 PM
$199 for subscription in TIVO?? no wonder the company does not make money...
If you want to save some bucks just buy the BEYOND TV4 software & HAUP TV tuner card & hook it up to your PC with your plasma TV. ;) :D ;D
Yes there are a lot of options out there (hmmmm... nobody have mentioned that HAUP provides the hardware for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta cable boxes ::)). For me the most important is that HAUP is in the center of all the action!
And action there is:
I quoted some old research but this article is only 5 days old: http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/entertainment/54820.html
QuoteViewers Embrace Time Shifting
That increase is a result of consumers looking for ways to view programming when it is most convenient, instead of when a show originally airs. That same desire has pushed TiVo and Replay TV weekly usage up 88.1 percent.
I am wondering if Beyond TV4 is growing even faster ::)
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 24, 2006, 01:50:19 PM
Boatguy, Basonista, Oicpecnoc, ygtrader, mbough gorgegr and fous,
Thanks for your understanding of my concerns, which were about rayongthai and the possible pumping and dumping in this stock, not the company HAUP itself. Applauded you all.
David, you did a lot of hard work (as always) looking into the various phases of trading in this stock over the past six years! Applause. It sounds like a very plausible explanation, too.
Even if HAUP has been the victim of pumping and dumping over the past six years, that's not in any way a negative reflection on the company itself. That happens, particularly in low float stocks, and the company itself is as much a victim as the shareholders are when that occurs.
That's similar to "short raids" in a stock, or in my mind, to analysts' upgrades and downgrades, when they "pile on."
The fact that the fundamentals in HAUP look to be improving, thanks to the research of David, Michael and other 3 SOF members is reassuring, so we'll all watch it, just like we would any other stock.
David, you handled the rayongthai situation very well. Thank you. I totally agree: that particular situation is completely separate from anything to do with HAUP.
Good luck to everyone in HAUP. I hope that it's a huge winner.
Jeez, now I have to worry about pump and dump from premium members ???
I too took a position in HAUP, will be watching like a hawk now :)
Great job Melf Elf. Applause
Beyond TV 4 product demonstration with HAUP TV Tuner Card. ;)
http://www.youtube.com/v/rSaGp0wbuY0
Quote from: njshiva on December 25, 2006, 06:19:44 PM
[Jeez, now I have to worry about pump and dump from premium members ???
njshiva,
Not to worry...that sort of thing can happen at any web site, but David has taken care of it, and we'll all continue to be vigilant about it in the future.
Meanwhile, David, Michael, Alister and other have done nice work looking into the fundamentals of HAUP. Applauds.
Quote
I too took a position in HAUP, will be watching like a hawk now :)
Yes, we'll all share our observations.
If HAUP does get dumped after this rally, as it has in the past, that isn't through any fault of the the company itself. That kind of manipulation can happen to
any company that we trade, particularly ones in which trading is less liquid, so we don't need to be unduly concerned about HAUP.
Good luck!
Thanks for the great information Michael and Terliso :)
I'll try to buy Hauppauge's product tomorrow. It says on their website (http://www.hauppauge.fr/Spain/pages/buy/wtob_spain.html) that I can buy it at MediaMarkt, Fnac or El Corte Inglés and those stores exist here in Lisbon.
Then I'll download Beyond TV 4 software (recommended by Terliso) and see if I can make it work.
As for the chart, as usual my short term timing wasn't good, the stock may fill the gap between $6.31 and $6.46 (it looks like Tokyopua was right in being worried), or it may touch the ascending trendline's support at $6.43, I don't know.
What I'm pretty positive is that in a month's time I'll be in the green with HAUP and this is probably going to be an outstanding trade for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Why? Well, everything points north:
- The company's target market is growing rapidly;
- The company is already profitable and it will be even more profitable as sales increase; the sales multiple is just 0.68.
- There wasn't any dilution since 1997, well, because the company is profitable, so we don't need to worry about dilution;
- The chart is bullish, despite today's sell off.
I'll continue holding HAUP for the foreseeable future.
Michael
"Yes there are a lot of options out there (hmmmm... nobody have mentioned that HAUP provides the hardware for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta cable boxes ). For me the most important is that HAUP is in the center of all the action!"
Can you provide a link and more details concerning their deals with Motorola and Scientific Atlanta (the leader in cable boxes). I currently use Time Warner Cable (One of the largest cable companies in the US) and have 2 of their DVR boxes (Made by Scientific Atlanta). Their DVR service is extremely popular. A lot of friends are already signed up for it. and they have two different models HD and regular. The boxes are free, people pay $8.95 per month per box and you can always upgrade to a newer model free of charge. (more hours of storage and features) They extremely popular and demand is growing. Most people in US watch TV through a cable company (I think its over 90% maybe higher) and I believe that the DVR will be as ubiquitous as a VCR is all homes.
Does HAUP supply all the hardware for Scientific Atlanta and Motorola or just a certain amount?
How much $ per unit?
Please provide as many links and details about the deals with Scientific Atlanta and Motorola. I am seriously considering adding a lot more to my current position.
Thanks,
Egg
Quote from: eggman11 on December 27, 2006, 12:36:07 PM
Michael
Can you provide a link and more details concerning their deals with Motorola and Scientific Atlanta (the leader in cable boxes).
No I can't! And the reason is very simple they don't provide the HW for Motorola and Scientific Atlanta's cable boxes :-[ (this is the embarrassed smiley!!!!)
I was too fast on this one. I had a look at the Blaster Table: (http://www.hauppauge.com/pages/support/blaster_table_na_cable.htm) and I thought that it meant that HAUP provided part of the technology behind Motorola's and Scientific Atlanta's Cable Boxes. Now when you asked I looked a bit closer and it seems like this has something to do with Hauppauge's IR remote control. Sorry about that. It was not an attempt to misinform ???
I've applauded Michael :). All men make mistakes (even more so when analyzing stocks), but not many have the honesty to publicly recognize those mistakes.
Michael's example shows how this message board is different from others like Yahoo Boards. There you can't trust anybody, because people disappear when they make mistakes.
Here we understand that mistakes, in trading and analysis, are a part of the game. We strive to make less and less mistakes as we grow as analysts/investors/speculators, and the only way to do that is to recognize mistakes in the first place.
So, hats off to Michael :)
It's also interesting to see how eggman1 wanted a confirmation on the fundamentals before buying the stock. He clearly knows what he's doing with his money. Hats off to eggman1 too :)
Now, going back to HAUP, you probably don't know it, but Ramsburg is the most shrewdest internet/technology geek that I've ever heard of. Even for American standards. Today I went to his office to put some new software in my computer ... and I asked him about my HAUP's play.
He said: "Come here, let me show you something ..."
I don't want to make this text too long, but he showed me a DVR that is prepared to receive IP TV, that is, television through the internet. He already has the receiver, but no one, not even in the US, is already providing IP TV, still just studying the idea.
He said "we already have 24 mbits broadband internet here in Portugal, if IP TV spends just 1 or 2 mbits of broadband, the internet may substitute cable and air as a way for television".
Also, he showed me websites, particularly www.channelchooser.com where you can already watch TV on your computer, free (just don't go to the Adult section with your kids watching lol). With available software on the internet people can record TV, make videos and upload them on Google Video or YouTube without paying a cent.
Also, I wasn't aware of the following the first time I looked, but HAUP's product needs to be connected by a cable to the house's antenna or cable TV interface. It isn't mobile. You can't take away your computer to anywhere you want, provided that you have internet, and watch TV.
Technology can make HAUP's product obsolete, but nobody knows when. I already made the mistake of selling IIG too soon, because they sold a $6,000 software that you can download for free from the internet (a similar, perhaps better, product). But the fact is that they're selling that software more and more and the stock keeps rising.
The technological change is so fast (and it will only become faster) that many companies can profit from market inefficiencies. Companies sell products to not so technologically advanced consumers that they couldn't sell to more advanced users.
I need to trust fundamentals on this. HAUP sold $97.7 M in fiscal 2006 and its current market cap is just $70 M. Nobody knows the future. Now, this stock is undervalued and I'll continue holding it.
This is a slight bit off the HAUP topic but to add onto what you were just saying about IP TV. There's already TV on palm devices/cell phones. Say you have Satellite TV such as DirecTV (in US) and have a specific cable box that puts your cable online. Then you use a program that's installed on your palm or cell phone and access your cable television from anywhere with internet accessibility.
SlingMedia for example is a product that you can get where you get the 'SlingBox' or 'SlingTuner' that puts your cable online. Then once online, you use the 'SlingPlayer' to access it and voila...you're watching your home cable from your cell phone. Check it out...
http://us.slingmedia.com/page/slingplayer.html (http://us.slingmedia.com/page/slingplayer.html)
Quote from: David Randolph on December 27, 2006, 06:46:22 PM
I've applauded Michael :). All men make mistakes (even more so when analyzing stocks), but not many have the honesty to publicly recognize those mistakes.
Hi David
Thanks for the applauds. It is tempting to make a few mistakes – it certainly helps on the rating ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on December 27, 2006, 06:46:22 PM
I don't want to make this text too long, but he (Ramsburg) showed me a DVR that is prepared to receive IP TV, that is, television through the internet. He already has the receiver, but no one, not even in the US, is already providing IP TV, still just studying the idea.
He said "we already have 24 mbits broadband internet here in Portugal, if IP TV spends just 1 or 2 mbits of broadband, the internet may substitute cable and air as a way for television".
Yes IP TV is the future but it will hardly kill TV for the next many years (as TV didn't kill the cinema's). TV will live side by side with IP TV for many years and HAUP is right in the middle of that revolution.
Let's say you have a local TV station in Portugal that doesn't offer IP TV and you want to have that channel available while you are on Holiday in lets say Mozambique ;D. No problem! WinTV comes with Orb's Software free of charge.
This mean that WinTV-PVR users can watch TV streamed from their home PC anywhere in the world on virtually any Web-enabled mobile device. Combine a Hauppauge WinTV-PVR and Orb's software and you will be able to watch live or prerecorded TV on mobile phones, PDAs and even your laptop computer in Mozambique. Now ask Ramsburg if he thinks that is coooool :)
You can read more here: http://www.hauppauge.com/orb/index.html
Quote from: David Randolph on December 27, 2006, 06:46:22 PM
Also, I wasn't aware of the following the first time I looked, but HAUP's product needs to be connected by a cable to the house's antenna or cable TV interface. It isn't mobile. You can't take away your computer to anywhere you want, provided that you have internet, and watch TV.
Well not absolutely true. If you install the WinTV card on your desktop you can stream TV over your WiFi hotspot in your home (or any WiFi hotspot in the world for that matter). With a WiFi enabled laptop or Video Ipod or phone you will be able to see your favorite channel anywhere you have WiFi coverage. Now that is Mobile TV taken to the extreme >:D
Quote from: David Randolph on December 27, 2006, 06:46:22 PM
I need to trust fundamentals on this. HAUP sold $97.7 M in fiscal 2006 and its current market cap is just $70 M. Nobody knows the future. Now, this stock is undervalued and I'll continue holding it.
Even though I was wrong about Hauppauge supplying the hardware to Motorola and Scientific Atlantic I still stand by the comment that HAUP is in the center of the media revolution that is going on as we speak. That being the explosive growth in the penetration of PVR's, the trend towards IP TV or the sharing of video's on sites like www.youtube.com
Revenue of 97.7 million USD translates roughly into 1 million WinTV tuners sold. I believe that this could grow exponential in the coming years.
But then I have been wrong before.....
Quote from: Michael on December 28, 2006, 12:08:38 AM
This mean that WinTV-PVR users can watch TV streamed from their home PC anywhere in the world on virtually any Web-enabled mobile device. Combine a Hauppauge WinTV-PVR and Orb's software and you will be able to watch live or prerecorded TV on mobile phones, PDAs and even your laptop computer in Mozambique. Now ask Ramsburg if he thinks that is coooool :)
Hi Michael ;)
I think it's really AWESOME ! ;)
But to have really a good image quality you need better upstream than the current standards :-\
Quote from: Michael on December 28, 2006, 12:08:38 AM
Yes IP TV is the future but it will hardly kill TV for the next many years (as TV didn't kill the cinema's). TV will live side by side with IP TV for many years and HAUP is right in the middle of that revolution.
Agree... not a short term scenario, and to be honest its a little complicated to predict where are we going from here. But IPTV / ADSL TV, etc will be the future, with current broadband standards and going up, it's easy to predict that all TV will be transmitted via Internet somewhere in the future, old TV sets will use some kind of TV-Box and new sets will be fully integrated with your computer and internet).
This is not IPTV yet, but in Portugal we already have since few months ago TV over the ADSL2 structure: http://smartv.clix.pt/index.html (the website its in Portuguese ::)) You still need a TV capture device like HAUP's to use this on your PC and capture, unless you have an illegal software that cracks the Internet connection and separate the TV data directly to your PC (this means that you can have digital TV on your PC without a capture device, because the TV data its being transmitted over the internet)
Well... this is just a little brainstorming about these kind of technologies, but for sure HAUP's products are hot right now, and will remain hot for long time ;)
regards ;)
Michael's latest post here on HAUP says it all to me. Let me just highlight these two parts:
QuoteYou can read more here: http://www.hauppauge.com/orb/index.html
(this link is a must for any HAUP shareholder)
QuoteRevenue of 97.7 million USD translates roughly into 1 million WinTV tuners sold. I believe that this could grow exponential in the coming years.
This thought cuts through the essence of this HAUP play. They sold just about 1 million of their product and got $97.7 M in revenues. Can they sell 10 million in the future? Of course they can, demand is surging.
When I went to Fnac to buy one of HAUP's products, they didn't have it, but they had an entire section dedicated to this kind of peripherals to put TV on mobile devices and computers. A couple of months ago the section didn't exist. I see demand surging for these products with "video on the web" giving a precious help. All companies in the space will benefit from this global trend.
HAUP isn't just full of air, it is a profitable company with rapidly growing revenues. Please don't compare it with MAMA or ONSM, HAUP's advance is fundamentally backed as you can read on the rest of this thread.
Technically the stock broke out above the $7.17 medium term resistance level. The next resistance will only come at $10.10.
I'll continue holding HAUP.
Quote from: David Randolph on December 26, 2006, 06:12:37 PM
I'll try to buy Hauppauge's product tomorrow. It says on their website (http://www.hauppauge.fr/Spain/pages/buy/wtob_spain.html) that I can buy it at MediaMarkt, Fnac or El Corte Inglés and those stores exist here in Lisbon.
Then I'll download Beyond TV 4 software (recommended by Terliso) and see if I can make it work.
David, How is it? r u recording now? ;) :D
According to Yahoo Finance, their main competitor is Nvidia 2.82B in Revenue They have a ton of products...I wonder how much $$$ they made from their home Entertainment unit?
http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html (http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html)
A very well written article about WinTV in Mecury News:
QuotePosted on Mon, Jan. 01, 2007
Easier than ever to tune into TV on a PC
WATCHING HIGH-DEFINITION PROGRAMS NOW POSSIBLE
By Larry Magid
Special to the Mercury News
TV tuners for PCs have been around for more than a decade, but until recently they have been of questionable use. When I first reviewed a PC tuner back in the early 1990s, I wondered why anyone would want one when all they did was turn an expensive computer into an inexpensive TV set.
But things have changed and they're about to change even more. For one thing, it's now possible to record TV shows to your PC's hard drive, which lets you use a PC as if it were a TiVo to time shift your viewing. For another, there are now tuners that work with laptops, allowing you to watch TV while you're on the road.
High-definition TV is yet another breakthrough, making it possible to use a PC equipped with a tuner and an LCD computer monitor to watch HDTV. Finally, millions of people are about to get TV software on their PCs without even necessarily knowing it. Windows Vista Home Premium edition, which will be on most consumer PCs starting Jan. 30, will come with Windows Media Center, which is all the software you'll need to watch and record TV.
As a frequent traveler, I find the ability to equip a laptop with a tuner especially appealing, but until now that required carrying around a fairly bulky external adapter such as Hauppauge's WinTV-PVR2-USB, but Hauppauge has just come up with a new tuner that's just a bit bigger than a thumb drive. The $100 Win-TV-HVR-950 plugs directly into the USB drive of a laptop and desktop TV, providing you with the ability to watch and pause live TV and record shows to your PC's hard disk. It won't work with very old laptops. It requires a Windows PC with a USB 2.0 drive along with at least a 2.2 GHz P4 or 1.8 GHz Centrino processor and 64MB of graphics memory.
The device comes with a portable telescoping antenna that can be used from the road. You can also plug in a cable from a cable or satellite system. In addition to standard analog TV, it can also pick up digital HDTV signals off-the-air, though you can only get standard definition programs from cable. The software quickly scans for available channels in your area
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/16361287.htm
I like this part:
QuoteFinally, millions of people are about to get TV software on their PCs without even necessarily knowing it. Windows Vista Home Premium edition, which will be on most consumer PCs starting Jan. 30, will come with Windows Media Center, which is all the software you'll need to watch and record TV.
Having the TV software preloaded in Windows not only make it a lot easier to start using a TV tuner but it also promotes the whole concept. I am still on XP so I haven't tried it but I would love to know what error message you get if you try to see TV on a computer without WinTV. It could sound something like this:
QuoteThis program requires a TV tuner. Check out Microsofts windows marketplace (http://www.windowsmarketplace.com/results.aspx?collid=98&sortby=pop&order=d#sort) for the best deal on TV tuners
;D
QuoteDavid, How is it? r u recording now? ;) :D
No, not yet Terliso, they don't have Hauppage's products here in Portugal. I guess just in Spain. I searched for the item on www.tigerdirect.com but it's not available there either.
I guess I'll have to try to buy it at Hauppage's web store (http://registration.hauppauge.com/webstore/companyinfo.asp), but first I need to inquire the company to know if US and European technical specifications are the same (for example, they say "The Wireless MediaMVP uses 802.11G networks". I need to know if this is compatible with European standards - I'm afraid I'm totally ignorant on this).
One thing I'm not ignorant, at least not totally ;D, is on fundamental analysis. As a matter of fact, now that I look, I see HAUP's gross margin declining, which shows growth hasn't been very healthy:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31170;image)
Probably the low gross margin is the most important fundamental problem with HAUP. But the 20% long term average revenue growth and the 57% below industry average Price to Sales Ratio probably compensate that.
Quote from: HANDBALLJIM on December 30, 2006, 01:04:23 AM
According to Yahoo Finance, their main competitor is Nvidia 2.82B in Revenue They have a ton of products...I wonder how much $$$ they made from their home Entertainment unit?
http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html (http://www.nvidia.com/page/home_entertainment.html)
I've read NVDA's profile and it doesn't look like a competitor to HAUP, their products seem like complementary (I wonder if this is the right expression to use in English). When I went to Fnac I saw other companies (European) selling exactly the same products as HAUP, but didn't get their name. I'll go there again to check the companies' names for future comparisons.
Michael's post gives more hope to this HAUP investment, as probably sales growth will increase even more going forward.
Technically the stock had a resistance level at $7.17, which now should act as support. It closed 2006 exactly at that level. Let's see what the first week of 2007 brings, I'll continue holding HAUP.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 02, 2007, 04:08:57 PM
One thing I'm not ignorant, at least not totally ;D, is on fundamental analysis. As a matter of fact, now that I look, I see HAUP's gross margin declining, which shows growth hasn't been very health.....
Probably the low gross margin is the most important fundamental problem with HAUP. But the 20% long term average revenue growth and the 57% below industry average Price to Sales Ratio probably compensate that.
Hmmm... revenue growth and gross profit margin is always a trade off. A good management team knows the right balance and I don't think Hauppauge got it wrong.
They grew revenues by 233% since 2002 and the gross margin decreased from 26.2% to 20.5%. The end result is that gross profit increased from 11 million USD to 20 million USD. Not bad for a company with a market cap of 69 million.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 02, 2007, 04:08:57 PM
I guess I'll have to try to buy it at Hauppage's web store (http://registration.hauppauge.com/webstore/companyinfo.asp), but first I need to inquire the company to know if US and European technical specifications are the same (for example, they say "The Wireless MediaMVP uses 802.11G networks". I need to know if this is compatible with European standards - I'm afraid I'm totally ignorant on this).
Well here is the good news The WiFi spec is the same all over the world (802.11x) and there are more good news TV is much more complicated every region has its own spec. What works in US will not work in Europe so you better buy from Spain. Hauppauge is one of the few companies that has products that work in all regions.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 02, 2007, 04:08:57 PM
Technically the stock had a resistance level at $7.17, which now should act as support. It closed 2006 exactly at that level. Let's see what the first week of 2007 brings, I'll continue holding HAUP.
7.17 seems to be key for this trade. Not only did it close at 7.17 in 2007 but 7.17 is also the high 2006 and then of course the most important it is the entrance level for 3SOF. To be honest I think you might have a good chance of getting a better entry point than 3SOF. I wouldn't hesitate to buy below 7.17 though. The Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show is starting on Monday and HAUP will report earnings for their strongest quarter in February and I for sure would like to hold the shares over earnings ;)
NEWS OUT TODAY!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070103/20070103005171.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070103/20070103005171.html?.v=1)
it's 12:22pm est with HAUP @ -5.86%. i'm left with ??? as good news comes out this morning...
If it closes positive then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.
I am out, I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of a market correction: I will post some charts later in the members corner
cheers
O.
You show in depth knowledge of HAUP's fundamentals Michael (as in every stock you own). I want to thank your analysis on the stock, it makes my work easier :)
Quote from: kpunarc on January 03, 2007, 12:24:38 PM
it's 12:22pm est with HAUP @ -5.86%. i'm left with ??? as good news comes out this morning...
The news wasn't "positive", it is somewhat insignificant. Many times stocks go down on good news and up on bad news, and that's a short term indication, but I don't think today's news was significant enough to cal the market action as a "sell on the good news".
The fact is the stock is at a medium term resistance level and it's still fighting with it. Longer term fundamentals always prevail, and fundamentals on HAUP are quite attractive.
Also, there are a number of positive catalysts going forward, which Michael has been posting about.
Quote from: njshiva on January 03, 2007, 01:28:00 PM
If it closes positive then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.
I guess you sold your shares njshiva, because the stock closed down almost 7%. You say: «if we have a bullish hammer I'll hold, if not I sell».
If you always apply that rule you'll never make a big long term profit on a stock, because no stock makes a long term bullish swing without having some bearish candlesticks in between. Or, you'll apply that rule now, but others in other circumstances? Candlesticks today, perhaps stochastic oscillator tomorrow? MACD over the next week? Or, maybe, a bit of Elliot Waves, how's that sound?
I'm not criticizing your decision, that would be like criticizing myself, because I've used the same strategies in the past. I wish you're wrong on HAUP (since I'm still holding the stock), but of course I desire your long term success as a trader.
Quote from: la-onda on January 03, 2007, 02:49:36 PM
I am out, I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of a market correction: I will post some charts later in the members corner
cheers
O.
Thanks for the charts Oliver :) I don't have that feeling at all, as you know. Perhaps you will help open my mind, but I'm quite bullish on this market going forward.
Going back to our main subject on this thread, HAUP, today's sell off didn't damage the technical picture at all, as you can see on the chart below. All moving averages point north, and the 10 is above the 50 and the 50 is above the 200, if you know what I mean.
I see today's fall as the stock pushing back and forward at the medium term resistance level, throwing as many weak hands out of the ship as possible, because only the strong and fundamentally backed hands deserve the stock's reward.
Some of you guys sold the stock, but I don't see any sound explanation for the selling decision. On the other hand, bulls have a strong case. Perhaps they're not seeing something, but they of course need to trust their analysis to make money over the long term.
My fundamental and technical analysis continues to say HAUP will go higher, much higher than current levels. I'll continue holding the stock.
Yesterdays action was disappointing but I am really not so concerned. There has been so much talk about this stock being pumped in December and dumped in January that I guess a lot of nervous investors jumped ship yesterday when the stock turned red in the first trading session of the year.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 03, 2007, 06:27:46 PM
The news wasn't "positive", it is somewhat insignificant.
In fact the big question is if it is news at all. I posted a picture of HVR950 here on 3SOF on December 27: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1948.msg82495#msg82495 so it really was a non event unless the big news were broken here on 3stocksonfire ;)
I posted the picture because I was planning a long message about how awesome this product is. Unfortunately Hauppauge was a bit faster ::)
Still try to have a look at the size and design:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31217;image)
It will set you back only 99 USD and transform your laptop into a real media center. You can not only watch TV while on the move but also use your laptop as a PVR allowing you to record TV, time shifting, skip ads, stream your favorite channels over the internet. post video's on sites like youtubes etc. etc.
I guess the news released yesterday was that the product is now available and I think it will sell very well.
Quote from: njshiva on January 03, 2007, 01:28:00 PM
If it closes positive then we might have a bullish hammer today. other wise I am going to move out of HAUP.
Quote
I guess you sold your shares njshiva, because the stock closed down almost 7%. You say: «if we have a bullish hammer I'll hold, if not I sell».
If you always apply that rule you'll never make a big long term profit on a stock, because no stock makes a long term bullish swing without having some bearish candlesticks in between. Or, you'll apply that rule now, but others in other circumstances? Candlesticks today, perhaps stochastic oscillator tomorrow? MACD over the next week? Or, maybe, a bit of Elliot Waves, how's that sound?
I'm not criticizing your decision, that would be like criticizing myself, because I've used the same strategies in the past. I wish you're wrong on HAUP (since I'm still holding the stock), but of course I desire your long term success as a trader.
Applaude you David. I like those constructive criticisms.
I didnt get a chance to get out and now I hope you are right ;)
I dont see much damage done to the technicals so I am not that scared :)
Thanks for the info on HAUP Michael :)
I'm glad you're still on board njshiva, the stock held the ascending trendline on close. Today that ascending trendline stands at $6.71 and there's a short term resistance at $6.95 as you can see on the chart below.
A close out of this small range, $6.71 - $6.95, will probably set the short term direction for the stock.
Considering the fundamentals, fiscal Q4 2006 was quite stronger than Q4 2005, and fiscal Q4 (it is the June - September quarter) is seasonally the weakest quarter for HAUP:
- Revenues were $22 M vs $15 M;
- EPS was $0.01 vs ($0.09)
So I expect fiscal Q1 2007 to also be much stronger than Q1 2006. Over that period HAUP had revenues of $25 M and EPS of $0.10.
We'll probably get a revenue number like $35 M to $37 M (it means a 46% jump from previous year's level, the same growth rate for fiscal Q4) for Q1 2007 (it has already ended, but not yet reported, of course). This will be, by far, the best quarterly revenue number in the company's history.
I'll be watching gross and net profit margins like a hawk. Between now and the quarterly report there's nothing else to do but to continue holding HAUP, in my opinion. A fundamental investor can't sell when he's expecting such good news in the near future.
I'm still on board also, I am glad that it is back above $7.
Quote from: shaker340 on January 05, 2007, 10:47:05 AM
I'm still on board also, I am glad that it is back above $7.
It is nice to see that we are quite a crowd here and the best news is that we are not alone!
Let me introduce Deanna Brooks:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31291;image)
She looks as good as any of the models on Frederic's of Hollywood (David's new hang-out) and she has brain (as most Women have – just to avoid smiting from our female members :))
Now Deanna is a great investor. She won the Playboy 2006 Stock Picking contest with a 43.43% gain. Nice and one of her top 3 holdings were HAUP :o
I am now on her official site (http://www.deannabrooks.com) trying to convince her to become the official 3SOF spokeswomen. (If DIET can have Suzanne Somers we can have Deanna Brooks ;D). I am giving a very generous offer of a free premium membership. She is a bit reluctant but we are still talking ;)
Oh and by the way the stock is behaving very nice today. Still struggeling with the 3SOF resistance at 7.17 :D
Thanks Michael, for the pick me up ;D. She would make a great spokeswoman.
lol, that is fantastic Michael. Good luck! 8)
HAUP indeed closed above $7.17, the 3 SOF resistance level. Let's hope the resistance becomes support now, and the stock breaks above its short term high of $7.63.
Fundamentally HAUP surely deserves a higher price. The market seems to agree with this view, it is just spending some time around the $7.17 long term resistance level, throwing the weak hands off the board.
As I've said:
QuoteBetween now and the quarterly report there's nothing else to do but to continue holding HAUP, in my opinion. A fundamental investor can't sell when he's expecting such good news in the near future.
Should be an interesting week for HAUP they are going to an Exhibitor at the 2007 International CES January 8th-11th, 2007 - Vegas
https://myces2007.bdmetrics.com/Portal/ViewCompany.aspx?id=1778180 (https://myces2007.bdmetrics.com/Portal/ViewCompany.aspx?id=1778180)
I think a bunch of companies that are actively talked about on 3SOF are going to be exhibiting at this show. This show would be great to attend if you are into investing into Technology.
Quote from: HANDBALLJIM on January 07, 2007, 08:01:33 PM
Should be an interesting week for HAUP they are going to an Exhibitor at the 2007 International CES January 8th-11th, 2007 - Vegas
https://myces2007.bdmetrics.com/Portal/ViewCompany.aspx?id=1778180 (https://myces2007.bdmetrics.com/Portal/ViewCompany.aspx?id=1778180)
I think a bunch of companies that are actively talked about on 3SOF are going to be exhibiting at this show. This show would be great to attend if you are into investing into Technology.
Yes, that would be great HANDBALLJIM :) Some of my friends will go to Vegas in the summer, but of course they're going there to gamble, not watch a show ::)
Being able to easily attend these shows is one of the advantages of living in the US. But an European investor in the US perhaps has a more global view.
We had this news today on HAUP:
• Hauppauge Launches New WinTV Products for Windows Vista (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005838.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 9:01am)
Nothing unexpected, but it goes to show they're on the right track and on top of important technological changes. Up 4% now, let's hope it breaks the $7.63 short term resistance level (there was a 5 cents gap at the open):
Quote from: David Randolph on January 08, 2007, 10:23:53 AM
We had this news today on HAUP:
• Hauppauge Launches New WinTV Products for Windows Vista (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070108/20070108005838.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Mon 9:01am)
Nothing unexpected, but it goes to show they're on the right track and on top of important technological changes. Up 4% now, let's hope it breaks the $7.63 short term resistance level (there was a 5 cents gap at the open):
I agree not ground breaking news but remember that Windows Vista is going to be installed on 100 of millions of PC's and when they start wondering why they upgraded they might go here:
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/getready/hardwarereqs.mspx
This is Microsoft's site which tells you what it requires to take full advantage of Vista and top of the list....... A TV tuner card. and as we already know WinTV is Microsofts prefered Tuner card.
So not really big news but having in mind that HAUP already is cheap from a fundamental point of view i like it.
On another note. It seems that everybody is talking about Video, Timeshifting and Placeshifting (mobility) on CES 2007.
MSFT, HP, STX is all repeating the same things and as said before HAUP is in the center of the action.
I have collected a few links. They are not all relevant for Hauppauge but I think the picture is relevant:
http://digital50.com/news/items/BW/2001/07/14/20070107005069/hp-redefines-personal-digital-entertainment-experience-with-expanded-portfolio-for-co.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070107.wgatesss0107/BNStory/Technology/home
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=11vg30000/
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh73815_2007-01-08_01-46-52_n06299780_newsml
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=RE1ATMZRJ5YGGQSNDLRCKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=196801690
http://lxer.com/module/newswire/view/77854/
http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=RE1ATMZRJ5YGGQSNDLRCKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=196800083
Finally I like this one:
http://www.compusa.com/products/products.asp?Ntt=tv+tuner&N=0&Dx=mode+matchall&Nty=1&D=tv+tuner&Ns=top%5Fseller%7C1&Ntk=All#sort1
It shows CompUSA's top selling TV Tuners and last time I checked HAUP did quite good ;)
Well this should keep anybody interested in HAUP busy for a long time.
Those of us who are already invested can just sit back and enjoy :D
Awesome information Michael :o
I especially enjoyed the Microsoft and CompUSA's links (still no time to read the others, but I certainly will). No doubt there's a growing market for TV tuners and HAUP has the competitive edge.
I already expect HAUP to have its best quarter ever in revenue terms in fiscal Q1 2007 (the December quarter), but if they could increase their gross and net profit margins too, that would be spectacular !
Technically HAUP was able to close above the $7.63 short term local high, and the sky is clear for a trip to the next resistance level, at $10.10.
Technicals & Fundamentals agree, HAUP is a stock to own.
What a nice 3 Year weekly chart for HAUP, for me that's sexy! ;)
HAUP isn't the easiest stock to trade, it has been giving us several false short term technical signals.
But, the main trend, and this is why we use trendlines and moving averages, is up, there's no doubt about that.
Perhaps the stock felt sorry for that micro-gap opened between $7.25 and $7.30 and is coming back down to fill the gap. Only then it will make its move towards $10.1, which is the next relevant resistance level.
Fundamentally, as we've been discussing, my main concern is the declining gross margin, but probably that concern will be dismissed when the company reports its strongest quarter ever (the December quarter, fiscal Q1 2007).
Nothing else to do but to continue holding HAUP.
David,
I am going to Vegas at the end of the Month to work a show that deals with the Art and Framing biz.
As far as the CES show goes...someone told me today that it would take 3 weeks to see the whole CES show since it is huge and spread out to many hotels. But he did go out there to see a couple of companies that he had positions in...and was well worth the trip. VEGAS >:D
I thought you might find this helpful...updated news of the CES show!!!
http://ces.engadget.com/ (http://ces.engadget.com/)
But you Gotta love that IPHONE though.
http://www.apple.com/iphone/ (http://www.apple.com/iphone/)
Go "HAUP" >>>>
Quote from: David Randolph on January 09, 2007, 06:24:25 PM
Perhaps the stock felt sorry for that micro-gap opened between $7.25 and $7.30 and is coming back down to fill the gap. Only then it will make its move towards $10.1, which is the next relevant resistance level.
Fundamentally, as we've been discussing, my main concern is the declining gross margin, but probably that concern will be dismissed when the company reports its strongest quarter ever (the December quarter, fiscal Q1 2007).
Nothing else to do but to continue holding HAUP.
Maybe a stupid question and I am sure this has been asked many times before and answered many times before but how does one calculate the next resistance level of a stock? Or a filling a gap, etc?
Again sorry for the same old repeatable question but this aids in my learning process. Thanks!
Not stupid at all, great questions on technical analysis lancefur, keep them coming :)
Quotehow does one calculate the next resistance level of a stock?
This can be better understood visually and using an example. Let's take HAUP. I talk about $10.10 being the next resistance level because ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31472;image)
... now that the stock is above the $6.78 and $7.17 highs (which were previous highs, hence their relevancy) the next previous high or resistance level stands just at $10.10.
Resistance levels are past reference points. A previous high as in HAUP's example, or a former support level (a support, when broken, becomes a resistance). And a resistance, when broken on the upside, becomes a technical support.
QuoteOr a filling a gap, etc?
A gap is a price range that wasn't traded. Again, taking HAUP's chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31474;image)
Friday's high was $7.25 and Monday's low was $7.30, so there was a gap between $7.25 and $7.30, those prices in between were not traded.
Usually gaps are filled, except when a stock gaps over a resistance level (a breakaway gap) or gaps down over a support level.
Anyway, support levels, resistance levels, and gaps are just short term technical tools that shouldn't be part of a sound long term investment strategy.
HAUP did a perfect job closing that gap today, time to move up now.
Did anyone see AppleTV as a threat to HAUP?
Quote from: realcoolhead on January 10, 2007, 11:00:41 AM
Did anyone see AppleTV as a threat to HAUP?
On the contrary. AppleTV will stream music and video wirelessly between televisions and computers but you still need to capture the Video. So what do you need.......
I think that is one of the reasons we are seeing a nice gain today ::)
Or maybe David is controlling this stock :o :
Quote from: David Randolph on January 10, 2007, 10:08:00 AM
HAUP did a perfect job closing that gap today, time to move up now.
Or maybe the market just finally realize that HAUP is a great investment :D
To be honest I sold 50% of my position today. Still holding 50%!!! I was way overexposed in HAUP so this is not profit taking but rather risk reduction. Even though I kind of like to lock a little profit here ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on January 10, 2007, 10:08:00 AM
HAUP did a perfect job closing that gap today, time to move up now.
It did just that, closed the gap opened between $7.25 and $7.30 and then rocketed to a 6.18% gain on the day. The trend is bullish and fundamentals say it is still way undervalued, so no reason to take profits here.
Quote from: realcoolhead on January 10, 2007, 11:00:41 AM
Did anyone see AppleTV as a threat to HAUP?
No, Apple TV (http://www.apple.com/appletv/) is to show content of your computer on your TV, HAUP's TV tuner is for the inverse, to get TV on the computer.
QuoteTo be honest I sold 50% of my position today. Still holding 50%!!! I was way overexposed in HAUP so this is not profit taking but rather risk reduction. Even though I kind of like to lock a little profit here ;)
I understand your selling motivation but I disagree with the method. Never liked that "sell half" strategy. Also, I don't like to be "overexposed" to any stock, unless that comes from the stock rising a lot (I don't mind that ;D)
One should never be overexposed, but if he is, like you were on HAUP, it has to be for a very good reason. Your reasons were really sound, then why profit just 10 or 15% from them?
I have troubles with "increase exposure" when at a loss, and "decrease exposure" when at a profit. Because if you're losing, the market is saying "perhaps you're wrong, start preparing for that", and if you're winning, the market is saying "you're right, now sit tight".
A correct position size is perhaps as important, or even more important, than being right or wrong in any given trade or series of trades. I have a fixed position size for any new holding, so it is one less issue I need to worry about.
I never average down or average up. My position size at entry is always the same for every stock, 6.66% of total equity. I think this brings simplicity and objectivity, and it reduces risk and analytical effort (if it wasn't this way, I would not only have to think if the stock would be up or down, I would also need to determine how much to invest - and perhaps be wrong on that too ;D).
I have much respect and interest for other's ideas, and I'm here to learn like everybody else, so feel free to discuss profit taking/controlling risk strategies Michael :)
Concerning HAUP, I can't think of selling this stock. Buy and hold is the name of the game here.
Today was a consolidation day for HAUP, volume declined by more than 50% from the previous day. The trend is up, fundamentals are attractive, I'll keep holding.
It's interesting, HAUP's intraday high was $8 for the past three consecutive sessions. You can bet that if the stock prints $8.01 it will rally strongly. I think it is just a matter of time.
We can see from the graph below that HAUP is growing four times more than the Computer Peripherals industry and it is valued at a much below revenue multiple:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31692;image)
The problem is the thin gross margin of just 21% for HAUP and double that for its industry average. I hope HAUP can return to at least 26% or so gross margin going forward, because there's no use in selling more if you can't get more gross profit out of those sales.
Let's see how fiscal 2007 starts (it started in October 2006) when the company releases fiscal Q1 2007 results.
I'll continue holding HAUP.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 10, 2007, 07:32:49 PM
QuoteTo be honest I sold 50% of my position today. Still holding 50%!!! I was way overexposed in HAUP so this is not profit taking but rather risk reduction. Even though I kind of like to lock a little profit here ;)
I understand your selling motivation but I disagree with the method. Never liked that "sell half" strategy. Also, I don't like to be "overexposed" to any stock, unless that comes from the stock rising a lot (I don't mind that ;D)
One should never be overexposed, but if he is, like you were on HAUP, it has to be for a very good reason. Your reasons were really sound, then why profit just 10 or 15% from them?
I have troubles with "increase exposure" when at a loss, and "decrease exposure" when at a profit. Because if you're losing, the market is saying "perhaps you're wrong, start preparing for that", and if you're winning, the market is saying "you're right, now sit tight".
A correct position size is perhaps as important, or even more important, than being right or wrong in any given trade or series of trades. I have a fixed position size for any new holding, so it is one less issue I need to worry about.
I have much respect and interest for other's ideas, and I'm here to learn like everybody else, so feel free to discuss profit taking/controlling risk strategies Michael :)
Concerning HAUP, I can't think of selling this stock. Buy and hold is the name of the game here.
Hmmm.... I have been looking around for a long time but I have not been able to find a name for this particular trading philosophy but it is really very simple.
You find a stock that you believe in (As I said in the good old days: I love!) and establish a core position. As we all know it is very rare that a stock goes directly to heaven. Most often it takes a few detours. If it is stock that I truly believe is significantly undervalued like STX, GIGM, AOB, KOMG VPHM, ASPV, XING, NTRZ or HAUP I don't mind taking quite significant positions (at least for me) when there is a good buying opportunity.
The idea is very simple. As a long-term investor I ask myself if I would mind holding this position for a couple of month if necessary. If the answer is yes I buy. When the stock shows strength I sell (keeping my core position).
I might end up with a large position (as it happened with HAUP when I bought at 6.55 (I think we discussed HAUP that night :o )
I can trade a stock like this week after week. Sometimes it fall of the cliff as it happened with KOMG and VPHM and I close my position even the core position but most time I have already traded the stock a few times before that so the loss if any is very limited.
Sometimes I become a socalled bagholder but I don't really mind as long as it is only my core position.
As said I don't think this trading style have a name but I am pretty sure that I am not alone.....
As far as strategies, I think that there are a lot of ways to make money in the stock market, like selling 50% as was discussed (or some other percentage), or employing Michael's strategy, etc. It's all good, as long as we're making money. ;D
But, from David's perspective, he's the one who has got to decide on a strategy in order to manage the 3SOF Portfolio, and then employ it. His strategy is based more on the fundamentals than the technicals, and more on the longer-term than the shorter-term.
My approach is just about the opposite of that, so for that reason only, out of respect for David's approach, I'm not going to make any more posts on the technicals in the 3SOF Picks folders, which I think all of you can understand.
As I said last weekend in the NVLS folder, I realized that anything that I had to say about the short-term technicals isn't at all relevant to what David wants to accomplish (longer-term plays), and if I were David, I would find it a bit frustrating to have someone going on about the short-term technicals.
I'll post on the other boards, as I have. I've got some comments on the short-term technicals in HAUP, but they are inappropriate for this board, so I'll post them in the HAUP folder on The Stock Picking Board.
David, you're doing an excellent job. Applause. Keep up the great work!
QuoteMy approach is just about the opposite of that, so for that reason only, out of respect for David's approach, I'm not going to make any more posts on the technicals in the 3SOF Picks folders, which I think all of you can understand.
Maybe discuss this with David and the other moderators the best way to post...because I feel the more info short term, present, and long term information is an asset to 3SOF. Your rating is over 600 for a reason...members care for your input very much. I have been following the market for almost 20 years (TA for 5 years)...and if I had a service like 3SOF years ago with the current contributors I would most likely be typing this from my Yacht off some tropical island...and not at a busy office working for someone. ;)
Keep up the goodwork Melf Elf,
Jimmy
Hi Melf Elf and Jimmy,
I cannot speak on David's behalf but one of the thing that has always made 3SOF special for me is that different opinions about stocks are accepted and appreciated.
Lets put the opposite technical and fundamental arguments on the table and I am sure that we will all make better investment decisions by the end of the day and that is what it is all about.
Melf Elf you and I have had many heated discussions during the times and even though your TA arguments didn't always convince me they certainly always made me rethink the fundamental case and that is very healthy :)
3SOF has made many great investments during the times (just look at the increase in the value of the portfolio) but sometimes we get it wrong and more than often it is members that points out flaws either from a fundamental or technical point of view. A board where everybody is either positive or negative on a stock for either technical or fundamental reasons is a waste of time and against the idea behind 3SOF.
So please continue to post critical, challenging posts about any pick. We are all here to learn and your wealth of knowledge is always appreciated :)
Applaud that post Michael
Very well said...not only this statement but the entire post!"the thing that has always made 3SOF special for me is that different opinions about stocks are accepted and appreciated".
Jim, Michael, and Setravis,
Thanks for your comments, with which I basically agree.
I'm looking at this from David's perspective, as someone who has to run the show. David has said in any number of ways that he isn't interested in the short-term technicals, nor is he interested in short-term trading.
It isn't helpful to David for me to post, "XYZ stock just broke a two-week Symmetrical Triangle," etc., nor is that helpful to anyone who is trying to follow the strategy of the 3SOF Portfolio.
Members then have some confusion about whether to sell it, short-term, and try to get back in, or hold it, despite the breakdown.
Then, if the downside target gets MADE, Melf looks real good in the short-term, David doesn't like so good, and members are left wishing that they had sold.
Conversely, if some members sell a short-term pattern break, and the target doesn't get MADE, or anything even close to it, members are going to be sorry that they didn't follow David's longer-term strategy, and will wish that Melf kept his big yapper shut.
:D ;D
That's fine, as far as I'm concerned. I miss quite a few. But, what does that do for David? He's got the responsiblity of running the show, not Melf, and he's got Melf going about short-term technicals, when he has politely as possible said, "I'M NOT PLAYING THE SHORT-TERM."
He didn't "SHOUT IT," but I wouldn't ahve blamed him if he had. :D ;D
I want to support David in the best way that I can, and the best way that I can do that is to get out of his way, and let him run this portfolio based on the fundamentals, with a longer-term perspective.
David doesn't need "a monkey on his back" while he's trying to do that, if you guys see what I mean.
As I said, I'll post on The Stock Picking and Previous Picks Board on an "as can" basis, as I have, if anyone is interested in my posts on technicals.
I hope that everyone understands that I think the world of David, and that I need to let him do his thing.
Thanks, guys!
(David, sorry, I didn't mean to refer to you like you weren't even here! ;D)
Hehe, great posts here ;)
I fully agree with Michael and Setravis, besides, Melf Elf, you need to think of the trouble I get to find imagination to post different and hopefully interesting things everyday on every holding of the Stocks on Fire Portfolio !
If you don't talk short term, I'll have to do it myself, and I would prefer you to do the honors, so we can build a discussion lol
Moreover, don't think you'll get away that easily on HAUP hahaha
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 16, 2007, 12:32:52 PM
Short-term, HAUP is responding to the technical weakness, and broke below a Descending Triangle this morning, which has a QUADRUPLE top at 8.00. That needs to get taken out to upside, obviously.
The pattern break puts 7.43 IN PLAY as long as HAUP trades below the pattern, or until 8.00 is taken out.
And ScottishTrader, instead of subscribing the Premium Service, is losing his position on great stocks:
Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 16, 2007, 04:51:20 PM
Trust HAUP to get hopping just when I hopped off ???
Had to clear out some positions, and HAUP looked a bit weak there, on really low volume, so I got out at 7.77, only to come back later and see it had blown through $8!!!
Oh well, it will probably continue on from here, now that key $8 resistance is broken, but to be honest, HAUP traded a little too thinly for my liking, resulting in big potential swings, but really hard to read on days like today when volume is so low.
The bottom line is: I would like you (Melf) to continue posting your short term technical analysis on the Stocks on Fire Portfolio stock threads (you can post on both threads, premium and public, just copy/paste), that helps me doing my job, because my job is to study and present different perspectives on stocks and trading strategies.
I want to convince people to be more long term oriented, and the best way to do that is through a serious debate with a short term trader like you and others. I'm not expecting to accomplish this without a fight.
People can be confused, but that is healthy, because they need to learn which information to focus on, because they will never get rid of short term information, the media will keep on bombarding them everyday with that (although, of course, your technical analysis has nothing to do with the media, both information is short term oriented).
If they're not confused by Melf's technical indicators, they will get confused by a macroeconomic indicator, a press release from the company, a downgrade from an analyst, an insider sale, a mail they received, etc. Unless they absolutely trust the long term fundamentals they can never be strong hands.
They will trust more and more on longer term strategies by me winning this fight (and above average returns), not by you walking away. The debate is still opened, and I may be the loser (I wish I am, because I also want to believe I can make more than 30% a year for the long term - that's the short term trader's believe, but as years go by, unfortunately reality shows that it is impossible. My fear is years pass and, by trying to make more than 30% a year with short term strategies, I end up not making money at all trading - that's why I'm trying to become more long term oriented). Time will tell, but with the highest respect for your and others opinions, I kindly ask you to keep posting on an "as you can" basis. Thank you :)
As for HAUP, when almost nobody expected and without any news, it broke out above the $8 resistance level. I have a 14% profit on the stock and I'll keep on holding.
Okay, David, here's a re-post: Good luck!
They sure aren't making this one easy for you guys, are they?
The early morning Channel breakout got to a high of 8.47 at 10:00AM. Support on the selloff was 8.06, which was fine. That was above the tops of the Ascending Triangle, at 8.00...8.00...8.00...8.00.
The second rally attempt was lower to 8.43, then a selloff to 8.12. HAUP is at 8.12 again, on a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown in the intraday chart.
A close near here would be:
1. The Wave 5 fakeout/breakout possibility that we've discussed, if it closes below 8.25, similar to what GIGM did in this morning's chart example from September.
2. A Bearish Inverted Hangman in the daily chart.
3. A Bearish reversal, if it closes in the red.
Good luck, guys. I'd like to see you at least get a close above the channel, at 8.25 or better.
It's great to have you back Melf Elf :)
Don't you use moving averages? I use them to smooth daily price movements.
For example, you make all those assessments about one day's trading action, I prefer to watch a moving average, for example the green one on the chart below, which is a 10 days simple moving average.
Look how it keeps rising, despite all the daily "noise" (this means no disrespect for your work, you can call me bag holder or something else too).
I spent 5 years of my life studying the "noise". I made more than 5,000 trades during those years, my record was 57 trades in one single day :o
I'm decided to turn off the noise and let the music play (http://mdteague.com/DancingSmile)
But I still want to discuss "noise" analysis with you and others. For me technical analysis is about one and one thing only: determining the trend.
HAUP's trend is bullish. Fundamentals are attractive. I'll keep holding HAUP.
David, can you share with us what your 'strategy' was when you were daytrading or trading very short term, maybe in the Members corner or so? It looks like we have a lot of good 'technicians' here on the 3SOF, like Melf, Terliso, Setravis, fous, Scottischtrader, Aussietrader and many others and they all have their own 'TA strategy'! Just curious to see what yours was ... :)
I think this can be a very interesting discussion where we can learn a lot from eachother!
Quote from: David Randolph on January 17, 2007, 06:28:00 PM
It's great to have you back Melf Elf :)
Don't you use moving averages? I use them to smooth daily price movements.
Thanks, David. I look at the 50/200DMAs, but I'm not a big fan of moving averages. It all depends.
Quote
For example, you make all those assessments about one day's trading action, I prefer to watch a moving average, for example the green one on the chart below, which is a 10 days simple moving average.
I can see that, if you're day trading. I might take a quick trade off an intraday chart once in awhile, but I primarily use intraday charts for entries and exits, looking for signs of strength or weakness on impending breakouts/breakdowns.
See my LVLT posts on the intraday Descending Triangle breakdown for an example, if you're interested. The Bearish Descending Triangle (intraday) was telegraphing a "possible" problem with the Bearish Doji Star Hangman in the daily chart. It was a problem. LVLT gapped down yesterday, and the Descending Triangle target MADE, at 6.26.
I use the intraday charts like that.
Quote
Look how it keeps rising, despite all the daily "noise" (this means no disrespect for your work, you can call me bag holder or something else too).
My feeling is, "use whatever works for you." What I'm not fond of about using moving averages in that manner, is that they often get you out very late. If you use an intraday violation of a 10DMA, you easily can get shaken out. If you use a violation on a closing basis, you can get whacked.
Example: XNN (chart below).
If you get out of the trade when the Bearish Wolfe Wave broke in the intraday chart, at about 3.67 (I posted the intraday chart in that folder...I forget the exact number), it gets you out of the trade very nicely. If you use a Close below the 10-Day moving average (dark green line on the chart, that gets you out 24.5% lower, at 2.77. Big difference!
If you consider the short-term breakdown below the 10DMA to be "just noise," and
don't sell, the trade turns into a disaster.
UGH!! :P
Notice also that there was a Bullish Cross of the 50/200DMAs on the day of the exact top, which was deadly for anyone using that event in the MAs as a Buy Signal, so you see why I say that I look at MAs, but it all depends. XNN was much too far ahead of itself to use that Bullish Cross as a Buy Signal.
I don't like feeling a slave to a certain moving average, or to
any indicator, for that matter, to use them in that manner.
QuoteI spent 5 years of my life studying the "noise". I made more than 5,000 trades during those years, my record was 57 trades in one single day :o
Mercy! :o No wonder you seem a little negative about the short-term. :D
Quote
I'm decided to turn off the noise and let the music play (http://mdteague.com/DancingSmile)
That's great, David. There are a lot of ways to play the market. Find what you like.
Quote
But I still want to discuss "noise" analysis with you and others. For me technical analysis is about one and one thing only: determining the trend.
I think that you have the impression that I'm a "kamikaze day trader." :D
Sorry if I've given you that impression. I wouldn't like day trading, although there are many people for whom it's their "life blood." Find what YOU like, is my feeling.
I'm looking at the short-term charts in HAUP for signs of a problem (possible Bearish Wolfe Wave) in the daily chart. Again, like the LVLT example.
Quote
HAUP's trend is bullish. Fundamentals are attractive. I'll keep holding HAUP.
David, I hope that you know that I wish you the best in this trade, and in all of your trades. I'm feeling a tad uncomfortable about this technical vs. fundamental discussion from the standpoint that it's might become one approach competing with the other, to prove which is the "right way," to play the market, and which is the "wrong way" to play the market.
My recent posts on HAUP certainly aren't to "prove anything" about technical analysis, or to "be right" about anything. I'm just one player, who uses technical analysis to trade. I have losing trades, the same as everyone else.
My posts lately in HAUP are for two reasons:
1. Although your and Michael's work on the fundamentals did much to assuage my concerns about the "Pump and Dump" history in this stock, I'm still a bit wary, especially given the illiquidity in this stock.
Because of that, I felt that if I saw anything to be concerned about, technically, I would post it, and post what I would watch for.
2. The H&S target of 7.65 MADE, then this Bearish Wolfe Wave/Bear Channel possibility showed up in the chart. Targets aren't exact by any means. This one has been exceeded, but I thought it worth mentioning that HAUP has continued to rally, on weakening technicals, and to watch for the possiblity of a Breakout/fakeout failure, similar to the kind that we had in GIGM on September 21, when we sold the stock (Frederick did a great job on that).
That's it, my friend. My posts on HAUP are nothing more than that. ;)
Sorry that this is so long, but it seemed that I had some 'splainin' to do. :D
Great post Melf, thanks :)
I agree with most, if not all, of what you say.
Still, I believe technical analysis is mainly trend analysis.
As for this debate, I'm a true believer that one needs fundamental analysis for long term trading success (if not for any other reason, because it won't be possible to trade large sums of money based exclusively on short term technicals).
But I also concede that www.3stocksonfire.org has always been, and probably will always need to be, about short term trading and technical analysis.
Therefore, without leaving my current commitment to the long term and fundamental analysis, I'll also develop a short term oriented and smaller portfolio for fast and small players to follow.
Let's see how it works.
Thanks for all that you have done for www.3stocksonfire.org over the years Melf Elf :)
As for HAUP, it is a hard stock to hold if one is a momentum trader, but the stock is still moving up on average. I know of several people that sold when it had one of these red candles. And they sold quite below the current price. I expect the same will happen to the people that sold yesterday.
I'll keep holding HAUP.
We've had so much debate this week about short-term vs. long-term, and about technicals vs. fundamentals that I want to warn you that this is a lengthy post, based strictly on the short-term.
In a play like XING, for example, I was looking very closely at intraday charts, trying to determine if I wanted in it, and where I wanted in it, prior to the DOUBLE breakout that it just had. Now that XING busted loose on the upside, I'm not even looking at an hourly chart on it, let alone a 10-minute chart, or a 1-minute chart.
So, you see the difference.
I'm looking closely at intraday charts in HAUP, which sometimes are "just noise," as David says, to see if there's anything going on that is more than "just noise" at this juncture.
Okay, let's review the things that we were looking for, in an effort to determine whether or not we've got a Bearish Wolfe Wave/or a Bearish Channel playing out here, or not:
Quote from: David Randolph link=topic=8365.msg84549#msg84549
Moreover, As for HAUP, when almost nobody expected and without any news, it broke out above the $8 resistance level. I have a 14% profit on the stock and I'll keep on holding.
You've hit on the very hallmark of a Bearish Wolfe Wave (sometimes seen in a Rising Channel, or a Rising Wedge, also), David, as I see it.
Almost nobody expects the breakout. They've waited and waited, and when the breakout occurs, they buy and/or cover their short positions on the 8.01 breakout, and then the 8.25 channel breakout, and it turns out to be
exactly the wrong play.
That's the Wave 5 upside Fakeout/Breakout that we've discussed, which catches people by surprise, and it puts them "wrong-footed," when they buy or cover a short position on breakout, which "should be" bullish, but it's a Bull Trap.
I've gotten trapped on a few of those myself! :D
Another thing that almost nobody expects, is for 8.00 to FAIL to become support on a re-test. They've paid a premium price for the stock, above 8.00, and they expect to be rewarded for being patient, and for waiting for the breakout.
"Former resistance 'should' become support on a pullback."
But, another indication of a "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave (or false channel breakout) is that the 8.25 channel breakout and the 8.00 breakout
isn't support.
Really good breakouts either don't come back at all to re-test the breakout (like XING...it broke out at 13.20 and again at 13.41 and it was gone on the upside), or they find support on a re-test, or darned close to it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 16, 2007, 12:32:52 PM
Short-term, HAUP is responding to the technical weakness, and broke below a Descending Triangle this morning, which has a QUADRUPLE top at 8.00. That needs to get taken out to upside, obviously.
HAUP did take out 8.00 resistance, and went up and put in the Wave 5 "Fakeout Breakout."
Then, on the re-test of the 8.25 and the 8.00 breakouts...
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 03:49:21 PM
The early morning Channel breakout got to a high of 8.47 at 10:00AM. Support on the selloff was 8.06, which was fine. That was above the tops of the Ascending Triangle, at 8.00...8.00...8.00...8.00.
But, 8.00 failed to hold as support the next session, and..
Quote
The pattern break puts 7.43 IN PLAY as long as HAUP trades below the pattern, or until 8.00 is taken out.
...that target went ON HOLD when HAUP broke out above 8.00, but when HAUP went back below 8.00, and then went back below the pattern, the
7.43 target went back IN PLAY, and it got MADE on Friday. The low was 7.30.
Quote
The second rally attempt was lower to 8.43, then a selloff to 8.12. HAUP is at 8.12 again, on a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown in the intraday chart.
Although, 8.00...8.00...8.00...8.00 had held as support at that point in the day, (the intraday low was 8.06), that broken Symmetrical Triangle put a target of 7.74 IN PLAY, heading into the close (pattern in the chart below).
Math for The Symmetrical Triangle:
High: 8.47
Low: 8.06
8.47 - 8.06 = 0.41 points.
The breakdown occurred at 8.15 - 0.41 = Target: 7.74.
Quote
1. The Wave 5 fakeout/breakout possibility that we've discussed, if it closes below 8.25, similar to what GIGM did in this morning's chart example from September.
The close was 8.10, back below the channel. :P
Quote
2. A Bearish Inverted Hangman in the daily chart. :P
The close left a Bearish Inverted Hangman in the daily chart. Intraday, the Bearish Hangman itself was a broken Symmetrical Triangle (broke at 8.15), indicating further downside.
Quote
3. A Bearish reversal, if it closes in the red.
It was a Bearish reversal, by closing in the red. :P
Quote
HAUP is at 8.12 again, on a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown in the intraday chart.
Although this all was just "short-term" stuff, it can be very helpful, when we're gathering information to determine where to enter or to exit a position. That was a good bit a Bearish information in just that one session, if anyone wanted to "take the money" on the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown, at 8.15, late Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday morning's gap down opening (chart below) was confirmation of all of those short-term bearish factors. The Symmetrical Triangle target of 7.74 MADE, and it "shouldn't have" because the breakouts above 8.00 and above the channel, at 8.25, were "supposed to be" bullish.
They weren't bullish, at least not short-term, when TWO bearish targets got MADE
after the TWO "bullish" breakouts.
Yesterday, we examined some of the factors that indicated that the short-term trend had turned bearish, and the confirmation of that, which was the TWO Bearish short-term targets getting MADE.
Two things, in particular, that I would look for next week:
1. The "possible" H&S Top forming (best seen in a short-term chart, like this Hourly).
2. The MACD, which has put in a DOUBLE negative divergence.
In the daily chart, HAUP put in a Bullish Hammer, looking like it wants to make a rally attermpt, after 3 down closes in a row.
If HAUP rallies Monday, watch to see:
1. If it can get back above 8.00. If it can, that would take out the high of the Left Shoulder, which would be a good sign.
2. If the 7.23 - 7.30 neckline of this "possible" neckline gets taken down after a failed rally attempt, or even after no rally attempt at all.
If the neckline gets broken, that would put "roughly" 6.15 IN PLAY.
Math for the "possible" H&S Top.
8.47 - High of the head
7.28 - That's roughly where the neckline was, when the 8.47 high got put in.
8.47 - 7.28 = 1.19 points.
We won't know where the neckline will be unless/until there's a breakdown, so let's say that the neckline gets broken at 7.34.
7.34 - 1.19 = Target: 6.15, approximately.
Next post, the MACD.
MACD has had a DOUBLE negative divergence at the top of The Bearish Wolfe Wave/Bearish Channel, and on Friday, after the Wave 5 Fakeout Breakout to 8.47, the MACD has crossed below its signal line, by just a hair.
If HAUP can manage to get back above 8.00, that not only would negate the H&S Top possiblity, the MACD would bang higher off its signal line, which also would look much better.
If HAUP acts weak, the MACD will continue continue down through its signal line, and that could bring in the technical sellers, and increase the likelihood of a breakdown of the H&S Top.
We'd really like to see HAUP back over 8.00, at least.
Good luck, everyone!
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 21, 2007, 07:11:34 AM
If the neckline gets broken, that would put "roughly" 6.15 IN PLAY.
If that should play out, and if that target would get MADE, that would roughly coincide with what the "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave indicates.
The target line (Blue #6), looks to come in at about 6.18 on Monday, January 22, and declines by about two pennies each day.
Hi Melf Elf,
Below the weekly HAUP chart which I guess represents the long term technical view on the stock.
In relation to our discussion about HAUP being a "pump and dump" stock the buying pressure seems to be more sustained this year compared to previous years.
I don't know where the stock will go in the coming weeks but I do know that they will report earnings within 3 to 4 weeks and this is a stock I would like to hold over earnings.
So my plan is to buy back the shares I sold last week if the stock touch the lower end of the price channel. For next week that stands at around 7, which seem to be a good long-term entry point for me.
From PC to TV .. from TV to PC:
http://business.maktoob.com/electronicsnew.asp?id=20070111012041
Quote from: voova99 on January 21, 2007, 01:30:30 PM
From PC to TV .. from TV to PC:
http://business.maktoob.com/electronicsnew.asp?id=20070111012041
Yes voova99, we see a lot of big players (like Sandisk and Apple) working on the PC --> TV segment, but not a lot supplying products for the inverse TV --> PC relationship. HAUP is one company on this second segment.
As Michael says, I don't want to be out of this stock when it reports earnings. This will be the best quarter ever for the company, and possibly gross and net profit margins will rise. And, keep in mind this is just a $73.6 M market cap company, so it can easily fly 20 or 30% in a big news day.
Melf doesn't like the stock (because he sees it as a recurrent pump & dump scheme) and says it is technically weak (applause for his technical work).
I respectfully disagree, the trend on my chart points north. I have a 6% profit on HAUP and I'll keep holding.
[
Quote from: Michael on January 21, 2007, 10:03:13 AM
Hi Melf Elf,
Below the weekly HAUP chart which I guess represents the long term technical view on the stock.
Michael,
That's an interesting point of discussion.
I would describe what you've drawn as the Intermediate trend (days, weeks, and months). Long-term trends are defined more by weeks, months and years, and they aren't always easy to define simply as bullish or bearish, so we have to come up with some characterizations that best describe what's going on longer-term.
1. HAUP had a couple of nice pattern breakouts in 1999 and early 2000, prior to the Parabolic rally, almost to $50, and then the Parabolic Return to well below the origin of the Parabolic Rally.
2. Since then, the long-term 7-year trend has been a Crash Recovery bottoming process that has been sideways, with an upward bias.
3. HAUP had a nice breakout above a 3-year base, above 5.35 - 5.15, in 2004. That put roughly $9.75 IN PLAY. ($5.35 - $0.95 (low) = $4.40 +$5.35 = Target: $9.75.
HAUP got to 10.10, which would have been a ver-ry nice play, huh?!
4. But, in the two years prior to that breakout, and in all of the years since then, HAUP has exhibited the "fractal behavior" of Parabolic Rallies...and, Paraolic Returns, which simple means "repeating pattern of behavior," or "mirror image" of the behavior. They've just been smaller in size than the originial one, in 2000.
5. The Intermediate Trend that you posted, Michael, again is more of that "fractal behavior." HAUP has had a Parabolic Rally of 138% off the Summer, 2006 low.
Parabolic Rallies, generally, don't end well, and none of the Parabolic Rallies in HAUP have. They've resulted in big percentage retracements.
That fractal behavior could be different this time, but that type of behavior in a stock puts me off it. Hopefully, the fundamentals have improved enough (thank you for your work on that), that HAUP can avoid a significant selloff.
Good luck, Michael, and to everyone who is long.
Quote from: David Randolph link=topic=8365.msg85107#msg85107
Melf doesn't like the stock (because he sees it as a recurrent pump & dump scheme) and says it is technically weak (applause for his technical work).
I respectfully disagree, the trend on my chart points north. I have a 6% profit on HAUP and I'll keep holding.
Thanks, David, and I probably should clarify that I don't dislike HAUP in the sense that I'm "down on the stock." Not at all.
My comments are based strictly on the technicals, the "Pump and Dump," or, "Parabolic Rally...Parabolic Return" or "Blowoff Rallies" (however we wish to characterize the behavior), and have nothing to with the company, or with its fundamentals.
Nothing would make me happier than to see HAUP rally like gangbusters.
This morning, HAUP broke below the neckline of the H&S Top in the Hourly chart. It's currently just above the neckline, on a re-test.
What HAUP needs to do here, technically, is get back above the high of the Right Shoulder, which is 7.71, so 7.72.
That puts it out of Harm's Way, at least temporarily, and is an indication that the Bearish H&S Top isn't bearish at all, if the the 8.47 high of the Head gets taken out to the upside, it's generally VERY bullish, because it's a Bear Trap!
Bears are thinking that this morning's break of the neckline is bearish, and they would be trapped if they shorted this morning's low.
In the daily chart, HAUP managed to pull off just exactly that scenario on November, when it took out the high of the Head, at 6.10. If anyone wants to see that chart again, let me know.
Technically, that scenario is going to be a bit difficult here, since MACD will go down through zero in the daily chart, which could bring in some technical selling.
That's less likely in a thinly traded stock like HAUP, though. Technicians are less likely to be playing it, due to the lack of liquidity. They like to get in and get out relatively easily.
Good luck!
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 22, 2007, 03:45:54 PM
What HAUP needs to do here, technically, is get back above the high of the Right Shoulder, which is 7.71, so 7.72.
Sorry, that Scottrade chart was inaccurate. Gr-r-r... >:(
The high of the Right Shoulder was this morning's 7.85, so HAUP needs 7.86 to get above it, to set up the Bear Trap (which would be an eventual upside takeout of 8.47).
Thanks for the short term technical analysis Melf Elf, I hope your bullish scenario plays out.
My chart shows an ascending trendline (red) that may support the stock. Volume has been very weak.
I attribute HAUP's last 4 days red candles to the weakness in the general market and some profit taking. I expect the stock to rebound strongly when it reports results for the December quarter or the general markets starts a new leg up.
I'll keep holding HAUP.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 22, 2007, 03:54:59 PM
The high of the Right Shoulder was this morning's 7.85, so HAUP needs 7.86 to get above it, to set up the Bear Trap (which would be an eventual upside takeout of 8.47).
7.87 is good. ;)
There are two ways to look at the neckline:
1. It's 7.23 and 7.30 (solid purple line), and it got briefly penetrated to the downside, on the print of 7.20.
2. It's 7.23 and 7.20 (the dotted purple line), and HAUP only now is putting in a Right Shoulder.
In either case, HAUP needs to get back above 8.00, then take out the 8.47 high of the Head, like it did when it took out 6.10 last year. That was the high of the DOUBLE H&S Top, the pattern in red.
Thanks for the analysis on HAUP Melf Elf, I appreciate it :)
Yes, let's see if it can get back up above $8, on close. That's just 1.65% away from yesterday's close, so it may happen today, we'll see.
Anyway, on my chart, $8 doesn't seem all that much relevant.
If we take a longer term perspective, the true resistance level was $7.17, and as long as we're above that, technically the stock should move towards the next resistance level, at $10.10.
Back on this thread I wrote:
QuoteWhat I'm pretty positive is that in a month's time I'll be in the green with HAUP and this is probably going to be an outstanding trade for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Why? Well, everything points north:
- The company's target market is growing rapidly;
- The company is already profitable and it will be even more profitable as sales increase; the sales multiple is just 0.68.
- There wasn't any dilution since 1997, well, because the company is profitable, so we don't need to worry about dilution;
Back then I was losing money on HAUP. Now I'm 9.7% ahead and I'll keep holding.
HAUP opened with a bit of a gap up and that made it lose momentum throughout the session. It was a very low volume day, just 63,900 shares changing hands.
If you're new here, you can read the reasoning for being long this stock on the rest of this thread.
There's nothing new to add, I want to hold HAUP through the December quarter earnings presentation (fiscal Q1 2007).
HAUP needs a catalyst to blow through $8 and push to $10. I expect calendar 4th quarter earnings to be that catalyst, because it will probably be the best in the company's history.
HAUP's balance sheet looks strong to me, with $9 M in cash, $17 M in working capital and $0 long term debt. Market cap is just $75 M, which seems ridiculous to me, this being a profitable company with estimated 2007 revenues of something like $115 M.
Absolutely no dilution over the years as you can see on other pages of this thread.
I can't sell HAUP, I can't. And I won't.
HAUP touched the ascending trendline (red on chart), volume picked up some, so it's time to start another bull run.
There weren't any news out, I'll keep holding HAUP.
QuoteHAUP touched the ascending trendline (red on chart), volume picked up some, so it's time to start another bull run.
Yes, nice bounce on HAUP, responding to the ascending trendline support. I believe it is a matter of time before HAUP decisively breaks out above the $8 level towards $10.
HAUP made a brief trip above $8, but volume wasn't there to support the breakout, so it fell back to a close at $7.85. I guess Haup needs positive news to really breakout above $8 towards $10.
I expect those positive news when the company reports its fiscal 1st quarter 2007 (calendar December 2006 quarter), so I'll continue holding.
Just 49,000 shares traded on HAUP yesterday and no news out. I'll keep holding the stock.
I'll keep holding HAUP for earnings, which I think will be a positive surprise, but then probably I'll bail out.
I'm thinking that the company's products will be obsolete somewhere down the road. With IP TV rolling in (for example ARRS is working on that), nobody will need a peripheral antenna to get TV on the computer. The TV will come through the internet.
HAUP is having trouble to sustain itself above $8.
But I'll hold some more time, because fiscal Q1 (ended in December 06) is always the strongest quarter for HAUP and EPS numbers can really paint an "undervalued" scenario. Earnings will be out over the next couple of weeks.
I'll keep holding HAUP.
How sweet was HAUP, giving us a 6.26% advance on Friday? With the earnings release approaching, the stock needs to discount that they will be the best ever in the company's history.
The plan is simple. Keep on holding HAUP to take profits after fiscal 1st quarter results. Perhaps it will run towards the next technical resistance, at $10.1.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 02, 2007, 04:21:55 AM
I'm thinking that the company's products will be obsolete somewhere down the road. With IP TV rolling in (for example ARRS is working on that), nobody will need a peripheral antenna to get TV on the computer. The TV will come through the internet.
I completely agree David. For those that are interested in IP tv, check out TVUnetworks.com. It's free and I'm able to watch Comedy Central, etc. While there is PLENTY of room for improvement/resolution, this is definitely the way television is going to go.
Usually I don't have time to watch TV, but thanks for sharing the information dnickers :)
Nice rally on HAUP yesterday, it is becoming clear the company will report better than expected results. I'll keep holding to take profits on the news when they're released.
Probably HAUP's results will be out next week, just before or at February 15th, because they're reporting fiscal Q1 2007, not full year 2006, so the limit date is February 15.
There's strong resistance around the $10 level, more specifically, at $10.10, so I'm going to change my trading plan slightly:
1) Take profits on HAUP at $10 if possible, or else ...
2) Keep on holding until results are released
Hi David and all
You'll have to excuse my ignorance of the technology in this field...
I was just wondering why this company can't evolve their product line to accomodate new technologies like IP TV?
I.E. develop an internal card or software?
If they are such a good company, should'nt they be doing some R&D for future products?
Thanks and Best
GMan
Quote from: David Randolph on January 07, 2007, 10:36:31 AM
Fundamentally HAUP surely deserves a higher price. The market seems to agree with this view, it is just spending some time around the $7.17 long term resistance level, throwing the weak hands off the board.
HAUP is accelerating above the price channel, it is now the third percentage gainer in the Main Portfolio ;) :P
Quote from: guitarman on February 07, 2007, 11:40:17 AM
Hi David and all
You'll have to excuse my ignorance of the technology in this field...
I was just wondering why this company can't evolve their product line to accomodate new technologies like IP TV?
I.E. develop an internal card or software?
If they are such a good company, should'nt they be doing some R&D for future products?
Thanks and Best
GMan
Great question and thinking GMan, I'm not used to receive posts to maintain a big gainer, as most people are eager to take profits on any excuse, instead of letting the profits run which is the right attitude.
My believe is one needs a very strong motive to hold a losing position or to sell a winning position. One doesn't need a strong motive to cut a loss short, money management tactics usually are enough.
Let's check what HAUP has been doing ... well, their vision of the future is different from mine:
«Though management believes that the delivery of TV via the internet will become more popular in the future, we believe that TV delivered to the PC via cable, broadcast or satellite will continue to dominate. As our products connect directly to cable, broadcast and satellite receivers, and deliver a high quality image, we view our products as the preferred way to watch TV on the PC versus the delivery of TV via the internet.»
The plan continues to be: take profits at $10 or else keep on holding.
Results were just out at HAUP, look to take profits around $10, as planned !
• Hauppauge Digital Reports Fiscal 2007 First Quarter Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070208/20070208005222.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu 9:25am)
No, the plan was to take profits at $10 or when the news were out, news was out, SELL !
(above $9, no need to run)
$0.39 EPS for the last 6 months!!! I don't know if I am missing something but HAUP seems to be awfully undervaluated... I bought some this morning.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509005243.html?.v=1
Hauppauge Digital Reports Fiscal 2007 Second Quarter and Six Month Results
SECOND QUARTER RESULTS
Net sales were $29.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 compared to $26.7 million for the previous year's second quarter, an increase of approximately 12%.
The Company recorded net income of $1,276,933 for the second quarter compared to net income of $957,878 for the second quarter of fiscal 2006, an increase of approximately 33%. Basic net income per share for the second fiscal quarter of 2007 was $0.13 and diluted net income per share was $0.12, compared to basic and diluted net income per share of $0.10 for the second fiscal quarter of 2006.
Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $120,382, for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 compared to 2006. Increases in compensation expenses and sales office operating expenses were the primary reasons for the increase.
SIX MONTH RESULTS
Net sales were $59.8 million for the six months ended March 31, 2007 compared to $51.7 million for the six months ended March 31, 2006, an increase of approximately 16%.
The Company recorded net income of $3,479,669 for the six months ended March 31, 2007 compared to net income of $1,978,352 for the six months ended March 31 2006, an increase of approximately 76%. Basic net income per share for the six months ended March 31, 2007 was $0.36 and diluted net income per share was $0.34, compared to basic net income per share of $0.21 and diluted net income per share of $0.20 for the six months ended March 31, 2006.
Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $541,536 compared to six months ended March 31, 2006. Increases in sales related marketing expenses such as commissions and advertising due to higher sales plus higher compensation expenses were the primary reasons for the increase.
OK, I reviewed whole tread about HAUP and it seems that fundamentally it seems that HAUP is doing better and better.. revenues continue to increase, so does EPS.. However, stock price is $2 lower than when David bought it for 3SOF portfolio last time... Forward PE ration is bellow 10 as compared to 30 this winter.
I accumulated a decent amount of shares in the last weeks and I will wait until it goes to $15 sometime this year :)
Found this interesting post on another board
D&M Holdings is a Japanese corporation that has successfully and steadily grown into an audio and video empire through carefully planned acquisitions. The company was formed in 2002 from the merger of Denon and Marantz. Since then it has acquired many entertainment household names. The following is D&M Holdings family of companies:
* Denon
* Marantz
* McIntosh Laboratory
* Digital Networks North America
o Escient
o ReplayTV
o Rio (digital audio players)
* Creative Technical Network (CTN)
* Boston Acoustics
* D&M Professional
* Denon DJ
* Snell Acoustics
* D&M Premium Sound
On page 34 of its 2007 strategy presentation dated June 29, 2007 (link below) shows that it intends to expand into what the company calls the "Entertainment Products" area. One of the products shown there is a WinTV-HVR-1600 Dual tuner which is Vista Premium and Windows XP certified.
http://www.dm-holdings.com/ENG/Docs/20070629_StrategyIR_final_En.pdf
HAUP has already been acting as "part of the D&M family" by marketing the ReplayTv offerings in its main website and its distribution network. ReplayTV specifies Hauppauge tuners as an integral part of its offering:
http://www.replaytv.com/sysRequirements.asp
http://www.hauppauge.com./
ReplayTV was one of the first companies to be purchased by D&M Holdings in 2004 (page 40 of the above presentation. Page 51 of D&M's presentation shows a graph indicating that it plans to acquire 1 or 2 companies each year.
Someone already mentioned on this board that he/she saw a commentary related to this in a business newspaper. I believe this is all coming to a theater near you.....very...very soon. How much would Hauppauge want for its shares? that's anybody's guess.
Good luck