http://moneycentral.hoovers.com/global/msn/factsheet.xhtml?COID=154720
This is being pumped good - a profitable Chinese company, new issue?
Yeah - it sounds like EFUT - and just might behave the same way. Up big on Friday and up 5% in the AH.
Might want to go along for the ride.
Take the ride....It is going much higher.
It got dumped big in the last 30 minutes. Lost 2 PPS. Gap up in the morning? If so, would it be a dead cat bounce or do you think this is going higher? Enterprise value is 17 PPS.
here is the lowdown from Bill Simpson:
FFHL, final blog piece of '06 and...Happy Holidays
Posted by Bill in General
Well throughout the year we've been putting pretty much one free analysis piece on the blog each week, usually Sunday/Monday. Most often the piece has been one that debuted the previous week. With the holidays approaching we'll publish our final free analysis piece for 2006.
Keep in mind we do an analysis piece on every ipo before it hits the market. They're all available to subscribers at http://www.tradingipos.com
This week's is a promising little China ipo that debuted earlier today. Note that tradingipos.com does have a position in FFHL at approximately $8.55.
Happy Holidays from tradingipos.com!
2006-12-17
FFHL - Fuwei Films Holdings
FFHL - Fuwei Films Holdings plans on 4.3 million shares(assuming over-allotment) at a range of $8-$10. Maxim Group will lead underwrite the deal, with WR Hambrecht and Chardan Capital Markets co-managing. Post-offering FFHL will have 13 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $117 million on a pricing of $9. IPO proceeds will be invested in a new production line and to further FFHL's technology and operations.
From the prospectus:
'We develop, manufacture and distribute high quality plastic film using the biaxial oriented stretch technique, otherwise known as BOPET film (biaxially oriented polyethylene terephthalate). Our BOPET film is widely used in consumer based packaging (such as the food, pharmaceutical, cosmetics, tobacco and alcohol industries), imaging (such as masking film, printing plates and microfilms), electronics and electrical industries (such as wire and cable wrap, capacitors and motor insulation), as well as in magnetic products (such as audio and video tapes).'
FFHL, which commenced operations in 2003, believes they are one of the top BOPET manufacturers in China. FFHL sells to over 300 customers in China, The United States, Japan and Southeast Asia. Customers include some of the largest companies engaged in flexible packaging, including Alcan.
Printing film, stamping film and metallization film accounts for 65% of revenues. Specialty products such as anti-counterfeit film, laser holographic base film and single/double surface matte account for 15% of revenues. The largest segment of revenues comes from the packaged foods industry. Majority of sales are to packaged goods companies in the eastern section of China. Companies in China account for 80% of 2006 revenues, outside of China 20%. FFHL estimates that revenues outside of China will continue to increase as an overall % of revenues.
Not being an expert on BOPET, I'm going to quote from the prospectus on FFHL's BOPET film:
'BOPET is a high quality plastic film manufactured using the biaxial oriented stretch (transverse and machine direction) technique. Our advanced production process improves the physical properties of the plastic film such as its tensile strength, resistance to impact, resistance to tearing and malleability. The high dimensional stability of the film over a wide range of humidity and temperature fulfills the basic requirements for flexible packaging. The film is light-weight, non-toxic, odorless, transparent, glossy, moisture-resistant, and retains high barrier resistance, making it suitable for many forms of flexible packaging, printing, laminating, aluminum-plating and other processes. In addition, it retains high dielectric strength and volume resistance even at high temperatures, which are essential qualities for electrical and electronic uses. The three-layer structure of CBOPET gives the film added properties which enables us to develop high quality BOPET products...BOPET film is manufactured from polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin, which is a petrochemical product. BOPET film is produced by melting the granulated PET resin and extruding it into a flat sheet. This sheet is stretched to 3.0 to 3.6 times its original length, and then horizontally to 3.6 times its width, before being heat-set and finally wound into reels.'
Products: 1)Printing base film used in printing and lamination; 2)Stamping foil base film used for packaging of luxury items to increase the aesthetic presentation of an item; 3) Metallization or aluminum plating base film used for vacuum aluminum plating for paper or flexible plastic lamination; 4)Laser holographic base film which may be used as anti-counterfeit purposes and can also be used in packaging to help enhance the aesthetic appeal of food, medicine, cosmetics, cigarettes and alcohol; 5) Matte film used for printing, metallization, stamping and transferring; 6) High-gloss film used for aesthetically enhanced packaging purposes. 6) Thick BOPET film to targeted to replace the the higher priced imported thick BOPET film. FFHL will commence manufacturing of thick BOPET film after ipo.
FFHL has a 100% market share in China for their Matte film and Laser Holographic base film.
As noted in #6, FFHL will be utilizing ipo monies to invest in new production lines capable of increasing the capacity of the production as well produce thicker films of 50 to 200 microns. FFHL expects to expand into the electrical and electronic film markets with these thicker films. Targeted will be thin film LCD screens. Currently much of the film used in LCD screens in China is imported. FFHL believes they can use their low cost production capabilities in China to manufacture and sell their new films cheaper then the imports.
FFHL is seeing an increase in their raw materials costs, namely polyethylene terephthalate(PET). Raw materials costs were 81% of total product costs through 6 months of 2006, up from 77% in 2005.
Financials
$2 1/2 per share in cash post-offering.
2 X.s book value on a $9 pricing.
Since inception in 2003, revenues have grown steadily...although revenues were flat year to year from 2004-2005. Revenues both years came in at approximately $43-$45 million US. Revenues have picked up in 2006, although the third quarter was relatively a weak one for FFHL.
Production utilization was approximately 87% in 2005.
2006 - Full year revenues appear on track for $51-$54 million, a 20% increase over 2005. Gross margins are rather slim at 23%. Due to rising costs of raw materials gross margins for '06 are actually down a bit from '05's 25%. FFHL has a very low tax rate currently. That should continue for the foreseeable future hitting no higher then 7% the next 3 years. Net margins for FFHL in 2006 appear as if they will be in the 15% range. Earnings per share for 2006 look to be in the $0.55 - $0.60 range. On a pricing of $9, FFHL would be trading 15-16 X's 2006 earnings.
Looking into 2007, I would expect revenues to accelerate a bit more then 20% due to FFHL's new production capacity coming on line. In addition FFHL will be manufacturing thicker film for the electronics industry, I would expect at least 25%-30% revenue growth in 2007. I would expect earnings per share to increase at approximately the same pace as revenues. I would not be surprised to see FFHL earn $0.75+ per share in 2007. If FFHL does earn $0.75 in 2007, at $9 it would trade 12 X's forward earnings.
FFHL is a small Chinese microcap showing solid growth and ipo'ing at a very reasonable multiple. The initial market cap of $117 million on a $9 pricing really leaves a lot of potential longer term upside should FFHL continue to perform. I like the initial valuation here and recommend FFHL in range and a bit above.
Sold FFHL around $15.50. will reload near $11-$12. This stock is a value. I believe many Chinese issues are undervalued. One should give a premium multiple to Chinese stocks. because of the overall growth in the country and coming currency appreciation.
Take a look at TSTC, undervalued if you compare it with GRRF, which is in the same space.
I added more near 13 - as well as jumped onto the E-FUT wagon.
Chinese stocks have been doing well this week - FFHL is a real company and profitable!
Added more today. I think it is going much higher.
WAY up today. Well done, everyone :) Wish I'd gotten in on it.
Ugh.... I sold at 15.50. I'm not too bummed about it as I was down 2200 at close yesterday. At least I sold into green! But I left $2k on the table by selling too early! Congrats to those who held. Don't forget to place stop to make sure you hold on to your profits though! I would say that it might be a good idea to sell in the A/H and buy back at a lower price in the morning.
remember - this is a low volume week with a lot of tax selling and folks on vacation. Next week this kitten should open its eyes.........
This is a rare opportunity. I think it is going much higher.......buying more again tomorrow.
i think this trendline holds
(http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p112/zibeaster/ffhl30m.jpg)
I would like to catch FFHL near 14.50-14.60 ish. ;)
Hit the steep trend-line.
good call kslifka. I bought bunch at 14.51. it is now bouncing off higher. tomorrow should be good
Quote from: zibeaster on January 03, 2007, 03:44:40 PM
good call kslifka. I bought bunch at 14.51. it is now bouncing off higher. tomorrow should be good
Thanks Zibeaster,
Congrats...You got a better price than I did. Keep in mind there is a possibility that FFHL goes for the secondary trendline. Infact tomorrow FFHL will have to open higher than today's close if this steep trendline is to hold. We shall see.
I am not too worried even if it penetrate this trendline a little bit. as long as the momo are still here. good luck
excellent call kslifka. trendline is holding. going strong! In at 14.81 yesterday.
sold my position. it doesn't seem to have the same kind of momo juice anymore. the drop at the close is troubling.
Quote from: zibeaster on January 04, 2007, 04:02:06 PM
sold my position. it doesn't seem to have the same kind of momo juice anymore. the drop at the close is troubling.
Volume was weak and it really never could rally. Hard sell-off at the end. Stopped out as well....but a profit none the less.
If it tags trendline and bounces TOMORROW I will consider buying again.
nuts! i leave for lunch for an hour and it tanks! no more lunch breaks for me! :'(. nice to see you guys made it out, i'm still in the green but not by much.
Quote from: alchemist on January 04, 2007, 05:40:57 PM
nuts! i leave for lunch for an hour and it tanks! no more lunch breaks for me! :'(. nice to see you guys made it out, i'm still in the green but not by much.
We ended up with with an kind of an ugly candle...but I think that 14.45 should provide support. I think daytraders bailed at the end of the day....which includes me I guess :D
We had this type of candle before and FFHL rallied. It may happen again...but I think it has to rally tomorrow if we're going to see $17 any time soon. ;)
past two consolidations were two day drops. today's move is not impressive at all. it suppose to rally. once people realize there is no momo left, they will jump ship. I am looking at $13 now.
I will watch it closely tomorrow. need some convincing action for sure.
picked up some FFHL. it is bottoming imo
buying more at low $13s. it is at least a safe play
Quote from: zibeaster on January 10, 2007, 03:50:47 PM
buying more at low $13s. it is at least a safe play
Are you trying to convince yourself?
Quote from: 422fwhp on January 11, 2007, 05:06:42 AM
Are you trying to convince yourself?
LOL, it sure sounds like that. I took a full position at low 13s. my feeling is, even if it goes down more, it is not much more.
Looks like this downtrend is here to stay. Maybe it will start reversing in a week or so.
OK, to further convince myself, I am posting this.
We like to play stocks that gave us big wins before, even though it may not be the right time or same play anymore. I am wondering if this is the case for FFHL. Hopefully it is not and FFHL still have value in a quick swing. I think I personally tried too hard to play the FFHL momentum again. I have done this before and lost money on subsequent plays and turned 100% gain into a 50% gain. So it is beneficial to try to think this through as objectively as possible.
Fundamentally, We know it makes 59cents and will be 25% to 30% higher in revenue this year. If they make 0.75 this year, that makes current forward PE of 17.3 at the price of $13. I think market can fully support this price, so if you are a long term holder, there is nothing to worry about it.
I believe for a quality Chinese stock (I really mean reliable, there are companies that give you fraudulent numbers) should command a forward PEG ratio of 1. This is because of two reasons,
1) The country is growing at 10% a year; this adds the credibility to the growth estimate (or may be the growth estimate already reflects it?)
2) The currency appreciation in next few years. This means higher EPS when converted into US dollars. Of course this can be offset somewhat by raw material cost if they import.
In FFHL's case, if the raw material costs come down, its margin will improve. So this year's EPS can be higher than 0.75. If we just use 0.75, using a growth rate of 25%, we get $18.75.
So fundamentally, FFHL is as sound as any other stock. We shouldn't worry about buying 50 cents or a dollar lower at all.
Now if we want to milk every penny out of the stock, which we shouldn't but like to do :), I got chart below
(http://i133.photobucket.com/albums/q63/zxyang/ffhltrend.jpg)
FFHL was rising along the trend line 2. At candle A, it put in a low of 14.50. It attempted to rally next day and failed. That was a sign that things has changed and I sold and thinking to stay at sidelines until the trend changes again.
At candle B, I thought it was a bottom because it was at some Fibonacci point of that big white candle on Dec 28. If we were to reverse, it better do it then because further drop will damage the up trend. I bought and the next day it went up before it dropped down near the open. The good thing is, I sold half at the top and the other half stopped out at $14.70. so a good profit.
At candle C, I thought again it was a bottom because it dropped near $13, which is very close to support line 3. For good stocks, you never wait until exactly at the support because you may miss it. I bought again and next day (today), it went up again before drops back. Today we are not at the support line 3 yet, but close. So I think this may be a bottom again :)
History suggests I am a serial bottom caller on this one and can not be trusted :). But that is what happens if you try to catch the bottom. At least, in previous occasions, they all are valid trading bottoms (even though it is only one day), People have enough chance to get out next day and make a profit, which I did. .
Right now, a bottom can only be more reliably called if FFHL crosses above the trend line 1. If we stay around $13, we will do that in a few days. If we break support line 3, if it is not a fake break, we may go to $11 or support line 4. The tough part is, you only know it is a real break after it happens. That is unpleasant and if you think it can happen, reduced it tomorrow morning :)
Ok, this is basically an exercise of self analysis to learn from mistakes and figure out what to do next. I feel better now after this exercise. My plan is hold and stay put. Hope this did not bore you.
Heating up again
:o
today FFHL had a solid break out of the down trend line. it looks great
Gaining momentum! Good volume.
Still holding
FFHL break out of the down trend line
Fuwei Films Fiscal 2006 Earnings Grow
Thursday April 5, 10:43 am ET
Fuwei Films Surge on Word That Fiscal 2006 Income Grows on Increased Sales of Special Films
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Fuwei Films (Holdings) Co. Ltd., a Chinese maker of plastic films, surged Thursday after reporting 2006 earnings jumped 16 percent, thanks to increased sales of special films and also stronger export revenue.
Fuwei Films, which conducted an initial public offering in December 2006, shares surged $2.04, or 21 percent, to $11.83 in morning trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The company has traded between $8 and $11.75 since its initial public offering in December 2006.
Net income for calendar 2006 grew to RMB 67.7 million ($8.7 million, or $7.88 per share), from RMB 57.1 million a year ago.
Sales increased 26 percent to RMB 436.8 million (or $56 million), from RMB 346.2 million in the prior year.
The company attributed its growth to increases in the sales of heat-sealable films, high-gloss films and other special films, plus continued increases in export sales to the U.S., Canada and Korea.
Sitting on 9sma...radar :o
I jumped in! ;D
The next small hurdle, imo, would be to get above the middle bollinger...say $10.75 and I believe it's on like Donkey Kong >:D
Anyone following this?
Bargain at this price???
Ares = Jegejig
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=FFHL
Ascending triangle on the 5 minute chart with positive MACD crossing at zero.
Broke below the ascending line of the triangle.
Will it go lateral for now?
So far trading outside the recent 5 minute descending channel plotted from the premarket high of 8.72 and connected to the high of 8.35.
Here's my annotation of the daily chart of FFHL.
Looking forward to how other traders interpret the chart.
Earnings announcement on July 26.
Recent rise of price and volume.
Above the 8ma
MACD histogram rising
MACD bouncing?
Slow stochastics crossing?
Looking forward to your comments.
Main Building for FFHL based on yesterday's info:
11.62 = 3.618
10.50 = 2.618
9.38 = 1.618
9.11 = 1.38 (see my notes at the lion on July 5 - then again this is just a gauge - it may blow up above this if demand is strong).
http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=ffhl&msg=2960&cmd=read
8.99 = 1.27
8.69 = PDH
8.46 = PDC
8.26 = 0.382
8.24 = PIVOT
8.13 = 0.50
8.08 = OHLC divided by 4
7.99 = 0.618
7.62 = PDO
7.57 = PDL
6.87 = 1.618 (near the daily swing's retracement)
5.75 = 2.618
4.63 = 3.618
Secondary building will be from the swing high and swing low of the 5 and/or the 15 minute opening range.
http://www.thelion.com/bin/aio_msg.cgi?all=1&cmd=search&symbol=ffhl
Here is my most recent annotation:
Intraday building
11.44
10.93
10.42
9.91
9.40
9.28
9.22
9.09 = high
8.58 = low
8.55 = PDH
8.44 = 1.27
8.42 = PDC
8.38 = 1.38
8.31 = PIVOT from yesterday's info
8.30 = PDO
8.26 = 1.62
7.95 = PDL
7.75 = 2.62
7.24 = 3.62
6.73 = 4.62
6.22 = 5.62
Just speculations.
Bottom fish at 8.31
Average up at 8.40 (0.618 of 8.57 high and 8.31 low)
Go in with momentum when it breaks 8.61?
I wonder which of these indicators would be the best to gauge the bottom for this stock.
To buy weakness:
MACD divergence
momentum low
Volatility expansion
FTT
To buy strength:
Break above a tight bollinger band
Wait for price to trade above the 8ma and trade above the previous high
Would the 5 minute chart with the 1 minute chart be sufficient or would it be better to use the 60 minute chart with the 15 minute chart?
Why is this stock going down?
Any suggestions?