3SOF

Good evening :)

Tomorrow I'll make 3 video analysis for the first 3 tickers I get as a reply to this post (only 1 per member, thanks).

During the new year holidays I developed new excel graphs that allow me to study and display more information using less space (and less of your patience). Ramsburg has been working on a "super excel" that will allow me to make 8 historical fundamental graphs with just a few clicks.

The video analysis will be the first step of a "new buying process" that we've been developing. The remaining two steps are:

2 - SEC forms study, and ...
3 - "Do I want this business?"

But we'll discuss the "new buying process" in detail later, for now, I ask you to give me 3 stock tickers to be analyzed tomorrow.

Thanks for your participation :)

FNSR
Thanks a lot.

Could you please analyze these:

GGC APOL

thank you

Quote from: cctabla on January 02, 2007, 07:13:45 PM
Could you please analyze these:

GGC APOL

thank you

Just one per member, which one do you prefer cctabla? Thanks :)

FORG

Ok, the 3 winners of today's "contest" are:

1 - FNRS
2 - GGC or APOL (I'll wait for cctabla's response, or else I'll take GGC)
3 - FORG

These 3 analysis will be posted on this thread on video format tomorrow.

Tomorrow at 7 PM, NY time we'll have more "Analysis on Demand".

Again, thanks for your participation :)

ggc will be fine.

thanks again

FORG has been momo'd over at a Mirc chat board all last week... be careful there

Hi, let's see how my second video analysis went:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=5673558185485213539&hl=en

I forgot to talk about recent news, but they're mostly bearish, relative to shareholders lawsuits and delayed SEC filings.

Now I'll send the newsletter and start making my 3rd video analysis, GGC.

Have a nice day :)

I hope the sound is better this time:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=2850153516283947298&hl=en

Next I'll cover FORG. I would like to make 6 of these per trading day, perhaps with more practice it will be faster.

Here's the video analysis for FORG, requested by rpccpa:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1136344636897386159&hl=en

Don't forget, at 7 pm NY time I'll post a new "Analysis on Demand" thread, so at that time you'll be able to request 3 new analysis for tomorrow.

Thank you :)

After all I'll continue using this thread for the "Analysis on Demand" section, instead of sending it to the Members Corner and starting a new one. This way we'll have all analysis on demand on this one thread and it will be easier for future reference (Ramsburg is also working on a new website section to store these video analysis).

On today's analysis I had a negative outlook on FNSR and FORG and a positive one on GGC, so GGC goes on to the next phase, which is the study of the SEC forms. I'll post a new thread for GGC tomorrow morning.

Speaking of tomorrow morning, it's 7 pm ET, so please give me 3 stock symbols to analyze (only 1 per member).

Thanks for your participation :)

MSI

STEC

BBC

The winners for tomorrow's video analysis are:

1 - MSI
2 - STEC
3 - BBC

Thank you :)

Hi David,
I appreciate you daily Analysis, but I think your time would be better spent picking one good company each day.

Quote from: yukiii on January 03, 2007, 11:28:15 PM
Hi David,
I appreciate you daily Analysis, but I think your time would be better spent picking one good company each day.

Hi yukiii  :)

The problem is I only know if the stock is good or bad after I perform the analysis.

But I get your point.

Have a nice day  :)

Here's MSI's analysis on Terliso's request:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=7722375774132999249&hl=en

This is an interesting reverse-merger/new IPO situation that I'll need to study more carefully. I'll do that in a new thread, MSI has passed to the second phase of the new buying process.

David,
Please look at TYL when you have a chance.

Thanks,

Egg

PICO

Thanks!

AKAM

If we believe video on web story, they certainly need a lot of bandwidth ... I heard YouTube and the like are paying big bucks to Akamai each day.

Thanks.

Easy eggman11, guitarman and realcoolhead, I'm already late to perform analysis on STEC and BBC (I felt tired today, so couldn't do 3, just 1).

You need to make your request at 7 PM NY time, right after I write something like: "I need 3 stocks for tomorrow".

I hope I feel better tomorrow and make the 5 analysis or I'll have to work extra hours over the weekend.

So, not now, only after the 7 pm NY time post the requests will be valid (the 3 first ones after that post will be the winners).

Quote from: David Randolph on January 04, 2007, 06:49:51 PM
Easy eggman11, guitarman and realcoolhead, I'm already late to perform analysis on STEC and BBC (I felt tired today, so couldn't do 3, just 1).

You need to make your request at 7 PM NY time, right after I write something like: "I need 3 stocks for tomorrow".

I hope I feel better tomorrow and make the 5 analysis or I'll have to work extra hours over the weekend.

So, not now, only after the 7 pm NY time post the requests will be valid (the 3 first ones after that post will be the winners).

Maybe you should hire a nice young blonde woman to do the video presentation for you, just tell her what to say!  ;D

Ok, now is the right time, please give me 3 Stocks for tomorrow's analysis.

Thank you :)

(why at a specific time? Or else pretty soon you would all be putting stocks all day and I would be running months behind your requests)

David,

HANS please

HANS, ok, I need two more.

QCC

Terliso wanted this one but I'm also interested in it!  :)

QCC, all right, just one more :)

Please analyze TYL

Thanks

The winners of today's "Analysis on Demand" contest were:

- HANS
- QCC
- TYL

I still have to cover STEC and BBC from yesterday's contest, I hope I can do these 5 tomorrow, let's see how productive I'll be.

Thanks :)

7 PM NY Time is my dinner time! :'(

But that's ok, take it easy David, I'd think the quality of your analysis depends on the freshness of you mind.  ::)

STEC analysis:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5532008685805142754&hl=en

David,

If possible when you post the video analysis, could you include a quick paragraph with a brief summary of your overall opinion. Maybe even some more description in the subject line. Some people like myself may not be able to see the video until a much later after its posted (on my home computer)

Thanks

Quote from: eggman11 on January 05, 2007, 03:18:21 PM
David,

If possible when you post the video analysis, could you include a quick paragraph with a brief summary of your overall opinion. Maybe even some more description in the subject line. Some people like myself may not be able to see the video until a much later after its posted (on my home computer)

Thanks

Yes, from now on I'll write the "General Overview" and the "Outlook" on the post.

The video analysis:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1959434691382203537&hl=en

General Overview:

- Technical analysis is bearish
- Numbers, especially the net profit margin, looks too good to be true
- AMEX letter and shareholder's lawsuits against the company for providing false information
- Revenue numbers are probably real, the stock can be more safe at a below average revenue multiple, say around $3

Final comment:

The stock will probably be up a lot on Monday (closed 14% higher in after hours) due to the following press releases Friday after the closing bell:

• Bodisen Biotech Receives Preliminary Determination From Amex (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070105/111416.html)
PrimeNewswire (Fri 4:46pm)

• Bodisen Biotech Provides Clarifying Information on Past Consulting Relationship With New York Global Group (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070105/111423.html)
PrimeNewswire (Fri 9:03pm)

I fear small Chinese companies with very high net profit margin numbers. Perhaps I'm wrong on this one, but been burned before. Since the chart says "sell" I don't trust the financials. Good luck to anyone holding, though.

Totally agree, be very careful of micro-cap Chinese stocks, especially those got IPOed via shell companies in Amex.

Although it is improving, there is a lot of manipulation/cheating in the Chinese stock market. My brother has first-hand knowledge over there. I don't think by moving to US those "old habits" can be totally eliminated, especially for the tiny ones in Amex.

I am not proud of saying this because I came from China 14 years ago. But this is just the fact and if we go back 100 years the stock market in US was full of scams too.  >:(

Quote from: David Randolph on January 06, 2007, 09:29:19 AM
I fear small Chinese companies with very high net profit margin numbers. Perhaps I'm wrong on this one, but been burned before. Since the chart says "sell" I don't trust the financials. Good luck to anyone holding, though.

HANS analysis requested by basanlas:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=2477459565599926719&hl=en

General Overview:

- Technical analysis says HANS is stuck in a trading range
- Long term fundamental trends are outstanding. Net profit margin of 18% is awesome.
- Great stock but looks fairly valued now. Would consider it on a dip to the lower end of the trading range.

Long Term Outlook: Positive

Here's the video analysis for QCC requested by Terliso:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1580140004511543256&hl=en

General Overview:

- Long term technical trend is bullish. Important resistance at $3.03.
- I don't know what this company does:
   - The balance sheet is odd;
   - The share count is rising a lot;
   - Gross margin is 80%, net margin is 70%;
   - QCC is a strange stock, I don't know what to think of it.

Outlook: Neutral

Here's the video analysis for TYL, requested by eggman11:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3486553805641483552&hl=en

General Overview:

- TYL had a nice run over the last 18 months
- It has been weak lately and fundamental analysis says it looks overvalued, with lower than average growth rates and margins and higher than average revenue and earnings multiples.

Outlook: Short term negative, long term positive but not much growth potential.

(I have to put the micro further away from my mouth, or you'll hear me breathing more than talking  :))

Tomorrow I'll analyze 3 stocks, one of them is PICO because I had a very compelling personal request, the other two I expect you to tell me.

The first two replies I get with stock symbols will see those stocks covered tomorrow.

Thanks for your participation :)

igt, please, thank you

ptt

Ok, today's winners were PICO, IGT and PTT.

Thanks for your participation, see you tomorrow :)

Here's the video analysis for IGT as requested by elliemae:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=5117016734461517649&hl=en


General Overview:

- Technical Analysis is bullish
- IGT's fundamentals are awesome but that seems priced in
- Long term estimates show a 9.86% average annual share price increase going forward
- I look for at least 16% long term average growth, which is double the general market rate.

Long Term Outlook: Positive

nice analysis David. appalud
Question.... current ratio would decrease if the company buys its own shares?

Quote from: njshiva on January 09, 2007, 07:55:42 AM
nice analysis David. appalud
Question.... current ratio would decrease if the company buys its own shares?

That's a good question njshiva.

Let's see. The current ratio is the ratio between current assets and current liabilities. For a company to buy back shares, it either uses cash or debt. The shares bought are held as "Treasury Stock", but I'm not sure if that is a current asset or not.

I'm going for lunch now (it's 1 pm here), but when I get back I'll look in my Fundamental Analysis books to see if I can get a straight answer.

Thanks for the question, it will make me learn something :)

Quote from: njshiva on January 09, 2007, 07:55:42 AM
nice analysis David. appalud
Question.... current ratio would decrease if the company buys its own shares?

More than good, this question was terrific !

You're right, the current ratio would decrease because of a company buying back its own shares because the company would use current assets (like cash) to buy back shares (thus reducing the current ratio, which is current assets/current liabilities) and those shares are not considered current assets, not even assets, they're accounted on "Stockholder's Equity" on the balance sheet.

Thanks :)

I hope that I am not late for request.

OPBL

How about an analysis of ANGN

Quote from: David Randolph on January 09, 2007, 04:02:46 PM

Quote from: njshiva on January 09, 2007, 07:55:42 AM
nice analysis David. appalud
Question.... current ratio would decrease if the company buys its own shares?

More than good, this question was terrific !

You're right, the current ratio would decrease because of a company buying back its own shares because the company would use current assets (like cash) to buy back shares (thus reducing the current ratio, which is current assets/current liabilities) and those shares are not considered current assets, not even assets, they're accounted on "Stockholder's Equity" on the balance sheet.

Thanks :)

thanks david!!

I'm sorry for being late on these analysis on demand, I'll try to get back on track tomorrow.

I still need to make the analysis on PICO and PTT before I request more.

I really need to make things faster to be effective, because I'm being too slow in finding new attractive picks for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Also, of course I can't completely rely on you to bring the good picks, that's my job ;D

I believe everything will be working very well over the next week, fortunately current holdings are doing their job well, since the Stocks on Fire Portfolio is already up 3.17% in 2007 and the S&P 500 is falling 0.24% over the same period :)

AKAM again, please.

1. Profile

Gateway (GTW) directly and indirectly sells desktop and notebook computers and servers, PC-related products and services that are enabled by or connect with PCs to third-party retailers, consumers, businesses, government agencies and educational institutions.

2. Technical Analysis
2.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31533;image)

GTW completely collapsed from its 1999 highs of $84. Now trading at $2.25. That doesn't mean it will go higher, but it does mean it is trading on a relatively low point, despite being up 73% from its August lows.

2.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31536;image)

The stock is now above the 50 days and the 200 days moving averages and both those averages show a positive slope, something that didn't happen since  late 2004. The medium term trend is now bullish.

2.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31537;image)

The short term trend is up and the whole technical picture will be quite bullish if GTW is able to close above $2.26. I don't know if this will happen today or not, but even if it doesn't, there's technical support from the 50 and 200 days moving averages, about 10% below the current share price.

This looks like an ascending triangle ready to breakout.

3. Fundamental Analysis
3.1. Number of Shares Outstanding & Market Cap

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31538;image)

This is quite surprising. Given the all history chart, I expected to see heavy dilution over the years, but no, just 1.46% average annual increase in the share count, since the company's IPO in 1993. The market cap went down 5.14% a year, on average, since the IPO.

The current market cap is 371,753,348*$2.25 = $836 M

3.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31539;image)

Long term debt is $300 M, which doesn't look all that scary for a company selling $4 B a year. The current ratio is low, at 1.23, but, for example, DELL's current ratio is even lower, at 1.03, and I don't see anybody complaining about it.

3.3. Revenues + Gross Margin

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31540;image)

Revenues declined by more than 50% since 2000, but the main problem with GTW is the declining gross margin. It has come off from 23% in 2000 to about 7% currently.

But the latest reported quarter, Q3 2006, showed gross margin ticking up by 2.3 percentage points to 8.3%, which can be significant:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31541;image)

3.4. Profits

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31542;image)

Ok, this is too much for me, I can't buy this stock, at least, not with the current public information. The trailing earnings multiple for GTW is 56 and the forward multiple is 20.4. This will happen if the company is able to meet optimistic projections.

4. General Overview

I was interested in GTW because of the chart and the very low Price to Sales Ratio of 0.2, but going more in depth I see the stock looks fully valued, because gross margin has been declining over the years (showing the company isn't competitive enough), and the trailing and forward earnings multiple already reflect a future fundamental rebound, which will probably be slow.

This was meant to be a "buy" analysis, but I'm going to cancel it and continue looking for new attractive picks for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, which deserves only the best :)

1. Introduction

Guitarman requested an analysis on PICO and sent me a research piece from other service which you can find attached below.

I read the research on PICO, which was interesting, making a general assessment of PICO's market potential and perspectives. But it was too general for me, I want to go deep into the financials of the stock.

So, I'll apply my own method of analyzing stocks without paying much attention for other's analysis, I believe that's what guitarman wanted when he requested the analysis.

2. Profile

PICO Holdings, Inc. (PICO) and its subsidiaries operate as a diversified holding company. It operates through three segments: Water Resource and Water Storage, Real Estate, and HyperFeed. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=PICO))

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31554;image)

The all history chart shows PICO is enjoying a bull trend but still somewhat below the all time highs set in 1991 and 1993, around $56 a share.

3.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31555;image)

After a sustainable ascending trend in 04 and 05, PICO has been trading in a range between $29.46 and $36.21.

One really needs to be patient with this stock, it looks like a low risk/low reward kind of stock.

3.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31556;image)

Over the short term PICO is approaching the highs of its medium term lateral channel. A technician would like to see it breakout above $36.21 before buying. Let's see what the fundamentals say about the stock.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding + Market Cap

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31557;image)

These guys play a lot with the number of shares outstanding, and I see 14.6% average annual increase in the share count. So, although on the share price chart PICO is way below its 1991 levels, the market cap is now at an all time high, because market cap = share price*# shares outstanding.

So, the market cap has been rising 23% a year since 1994, but almost 15 percentage points of that yearly average rise is attributable to the increase in the share count. I dislike this.

The current market cap is $673 M.

4.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31558;image)

PICO has a weird balance sheet, without any current assets or liabilities, just long term assets and liabilities, so, there's no current ratio (which is current assets/current liabilities).

What I have on the graph above is total non current liabilities, which have been going down over the years, to $133 M in 2006.

4.3. Revenues

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31559;image)

On average, revenues declined 2% a year since 1994. And analysts (the one analyst mentioned on Yahoo covering the stock), is expecting revenue to decline to $73 M in full year 2006 (the company had revenues of $66 M for the first three quarters of the year) and to decline further to just $50 M in 2007.

That means the Price to Sales Ratio is about 9, which is way high.

Also, gross margin goes up and down a lot, it's impossible to make long term estimates on this company.

It is becoming clear this can only be an asset play.

4.4. Profits

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31560;image)

Again, the same picture for EPS, going up and down a lot, but declining 8% on average since 1994.

The trailing earnings multiple is 31, but considering 07 estimates of just $0.24 EPS, the forward earnings multiple is 148 :o

5. General Overview

Very directly, here's how I see it: I would never buy this stock, it can only be an asset play (as is explained on the pdf document below), but I'm no fan at all of asset plays.

It can only be an asset play because revenues and earnings numbers aren't reliable at all and the stock seems extremely expensive according to those ratios.

I can't value the company's assets, which are mainly land in the Nevada state.

This water shortage issue has been coming up a lot in TV and financial newspapers, but I think that can be way off. It can take more than our lifetime before there's any drinkable water shortage in the US.

So, my overall assessment is negative for PICO, but I don't have all the information necessary to value the company, so I can be wrong (I could be wrong even if I had it). If there's value here it is pretty much hidden, because I don't see it in the financial reports. Probably it is hidden not in papers, but in time, what I mean is, the value can be a future value, but nobody knows when that future will arrive, and I guess it can take decades.

Good luck for PICO's holders, although I hope there's plenty of drinkable water for everyone for years to come. Already people are developing ways and technology for turning the sea water into drinkable water, perhaps that will happen before there's any shortage.

Ah
Thanks David!
Sounds good to me.
I'll put my PICO $ to better use in one of your picks!
I like the way you think! 8)
Best
GMan

AAPL please

ty

Hi David,

If you have the chance, KOPN please...

aapl
please

Hi guys :)

You know it takes me between 2 and 3 hours to write or record a full analysis on a stock (because I need to gather the information, make fundamental graphs by hand, read a lot, and so on).

But, when I'm reviewing stocks, I usually don't take more than 2 or 3 minutes to see if it is worth a more in depth study or not. I plan to make 3 minute videos from now on for these analysis on demand without any preparation, just to give you (and me), an initial take on the stock.

If the stock passes that first test, I'll go on to a more deeper analysis.

But I still need to perform the analysis on PTT with the old format, because that is what kslifka expected when he requested the analysis.

AAPL? Well, it's an incredible company, but already $82 B market cap. Sure, it can double or triple over the next 5 or 10 years. So, the best case scenario is you make about 11% average profit per year or so. Happy?

Unless one is investing with a multi billion dollar fund I find it hard to understand why people buy mega caps like AAPL (when they are already mega caps - when it was a $10 B market cap, hey, awesome pick). AAPL is so big already that it will probably grow just a bit above the market average.

Although I'm a long term bull on AAPL, as I am in the general market, I don't think I would be glad to join the crowd in buying now with all this iPhone frenzy. The stock's valuation already had that news embedded.

This analysis wasn't supposed to be made, not like this ... especially since other members, like realcoolhead for example, are asking for AKAM and others for more time.

But I guess you get the picture for AAPL, I don't see where's the profit potential or the fun in buying such a mega cap, but good luck :)

David, if you could screen WCG for an analysis, I would greatly appreciate it.  I believe it's a giant in the making.  Thanks for all you do!! :)

Here's the PTT analysis requested by kslifka:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=45273083520559008&hl=en


General Overview:

- Technical analysis is bullish
- The current rise looks like a pump to get access to capital for working capital purposes or to fund future acquisitions, probably through dilution of shareholders value
- I don't trust the company's internal estimates

Outlook: Negative

Ok, so far on this thread I've performed analysis on FNSR, GGC, FORG, MSI, STEC, BBC, PICO, HANS, QCC, TYL, IGT, GTW and AAPL.

Besides these, 3 SOF Premium Members also requested analysis on APOL, AKAM, OPBL, ANGN, KOPN and WCG.

From now on I'll make these video analysis much faster (it's not about the time it takes to record and upload the video, it is the preparation time that takes time and effort). But, in practice I don't need 1:30 or 2 hours to check out a stock. I think I take just 2 or 3 minutes to see if it is worth it or not given my basic technical and fundamental strategy to pick stocks.

So, instead of making about 20 images with everything written and prepared, I'll record videos as I'm doing the analysis, without any preparation, just to get an initial impression on the stock. This way I'll be able to get first impressions on many more stocks and perhaps find the best ones out there.

If the stock passes the initial test, then I'll make a more profound analysis of the technicals, fundamentals, recent news, SEC filings, etc, to see if I should buy it for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio or not.

I'll try this new method starting tomorrow, let's see how it works. For tomorrow I have APOL, AKAM, OPBL, ANGN, KOPN and WCG to cover. If these short videos come out allright I'll ask you for more stocks tomorrow, around 7 pm NY time, as usual.

See ya :)

Need your expertise...Analysis requested ;D  ;)
JADE

Muito obrigado

APOL 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8286153603169827854&hl=en

AKAM 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-461759774612800185&hl=en

OPBL.OB 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-2372895092336827930&hl=en

ANGN 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-6076862208769341093&hl=en

KOPN 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-6482458281682631507&hl=en

WCG 3 minute view:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=224744204231640346&hl=en

JADE 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=4903260769825372173&hl=en

David, on both the APOL and AKAM analysis, your voice is muted although we can hear the mouseclicks fine.  Nice job on all of this!  Applause!

David, I really liked the 3 minute analysis, you are getting more efficient, great job! ;)

Quote from: basonista on January 15, 2007, 08:42:49 AM
David, on both the APOL and AKAM analysis, your voice is muted although we can hear the mouseclicks fine.  Nice job on all of this!  Applause!

This is odd. I made those two videos initially and only then I've realized my micro wasn't properly connected, so I did them again, this time with sound. On my computer they play perfectly, but these here on 3 Stocks have the sound off , as you say.

Hmm, probably that was because I tried to upload the videos on Google Video without changing the name, and it didn't overwrite the old ones. I'm uploading those two again (and changing them on the respective post, just give it about 20 minutes and see if it works then). Or else I'll have to talk to Ramsburg to deal with this.

Quote from: elliemae on January 15, 2007, 08:58:13 AM
David, I really liked the 3 minute analysis, you are getting more efficient, great job! ;)

Thanks elliemae, this opens new perspectives, I'll be able to cover 20 or 30 new stocks a day :)

QuoteDavid, on both the APOL and AKAM analysis, your voice is muted although we can hear the mouseclicks fine.

Ok, the sound on both APOL and AKAM seems proper now, thanks for the warning basonista :)

hi david,
beautiful work on the 3 minute vids!
can you add PTSC to the list (cause i am a bag holder from $1.09, oops!)
thanks,
maxi

Quote from: David Randolph on January 15, 2007, 09:23:10 AM

QuoteDavid, on both the APOL and AKAM analysis, your voice is muted although we can hear the mouseclicks fine.

Ok, the sound on both APOL and AKAM seems proper now, thanks for the warning basonista :)

Thanks, David.  This 3 minute presentation idea is great!

TMTA please.

Thanks, David.

I noticed your chart on OPBL only goes through July.

I was interested in your fundamental analysis of OPBL as well.

Below is the current chart. ;)

Thanks again.

Lol kslifka, my OTCBB database wasn't updated until now. Well, it sure had that very low earnings multiple of 7 or so ;D (now it is more like 30) - and the market cap, at the "date" of the analysis was just $36 M, instead of the $205 M (which is the current market cap). If it weren't for the extremely low volume I guess that fundamentally OPBL.OB would have been an easy catch. 

What a run !

You guys need to stop requesting OTCBB stocks, or else I need to update my Metastock database (I guess the latter is better) ::).

PTSC and TMTA? Sure, I'll do them tomorrow morning (but I did analyze them already, at least TMTA I clearly remember, let me see) ... here it is:

Re: TMTA - Transmeta (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3465.msg77387#msg77387)

PTSC I'll take a fresh look tomorrow, but I never liked that stock because revenues don't look like recurring.

This is funny, I already had some knowledge of the stocks you requested, I hope that in about one or two years from now I know most stocks traded in the US markets, both from a technical and fundamental perspective.

Then, if you request information on a stock, I'll know immediately something about it, or if there's a macro or sector development I will quickly see the stocks that will be affected. Well, but to know about 7,000 stocks traded on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX over the next two years, I would need to cover about 14 stocks per trading day ... entirely possible, I guess :)

David, how about one of our old winners, XING?  It seems to be extremely undervalued but never quite catches on, I think mainly for their lack of communication with the investment community.  I would love to hear what you think of this company.

Quote from: trexkerry on January 15, 2007, 12:44:13 PM
David, how about one of our old winners, XING?  It seems to be extremely undervalued but never quite catches on, I think mainly for their lack of communication with the investment community.  I would love to hear what you think of this company.

XING, sure, keep them coming. It only costs 3 minutes or so of my time (not really a cost, I think it is more of a profit), I can make 10 or 20 per trading day or more, so don't be shy, request all you want.

I won't do them now because I feel like I'm on holidays and my kids are just arriving, but tomorrow morning I want to see a big list here ;)

Have a nice day :)

Please add LIFC to the list. :)

LIFC, ok :)

I think just one restriction should apply:

Only 1 stock per Premium Member per trading day.

Or I don't know, someone could post an entire 20 stocks wish list and I would naturally be overwhelmed.

I also need to use this "Video Analysis on Demand" as a marketing tool for 3 Stocks ;) Just 125 subscribers now (still, up from 62 in November), I would like to run up this number ... If there were any 3 Stocks shares my advice would be: grab them as they are cheap ;D

WGA please!

Hey Dave,

I would appreciate your opinion on NMEN

Thanks

Hi David, how about DCZ.  Is DCZ the next HOM? ;)

Hi David
I'd like to see how USU looks (uranium enricher)!
Best
GMan

Hi David, what about YMI  ;) ?
Appreciating the new analysis format, multi obrigado

cheers
Oliver

HI David, I'm looking at IAAC.It's fallen a long way and maybe it's ready to reverse direction going into the next earnings call. can you take a look? It's a former 3sof pick. Thanks. soxguy

Hey David - STXN please.  Thanks!

David, how about PHLY?  THNX.

How about BWLD (a growth stock), a friend of mine still holding this stock he bought it last year @ $37.25

PTSC.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1631124066098011850&hl=en

I said on the video that I would share a link to a more in depth analysis of PTSC.OB, but unfortunately somethings wrong with www.otcbbcoverage.com where I had the analysis posted. I'll talk to Ramsburg to see what's up with that website and will post PTSC's written analysis here, later (I was extremely bearish on the stock when it was trading at $1.20 - $1.30, it's a pity rickjust didn't read that analysis. But, don't worry mate, all you need to do, I guess, is take the loss, the lesson, and move on :))

TMTA 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=7852668717663078102&hl=en

(let's hope the sound is better this time, my internet connection is trembling)

Is it just me or this isn't playing right? I have dozens of interruptions while playing the video. Perhaps I'm doing too many things at the same time, uploading and downloading between other things, tell me, do you have the same problem?

XING's 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7754870287879893816&hl=en

If you do I'm going to have to talk to Ramsburg so he can solve the technical problem before I move on with the rest of the 3 minute looks.

I guess the problem is just with my computer and internet connection, since I made a restart and videos played better. Going for lunch now, will come back with more analysis on demand, I still have a nice list of requests here: LIFC, WGA, NMEN, DCZ, USU, YMI, IAAC, STXN, PHLY and BWLD.

See ya :)

HRBN
Thanks

LIFC 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-8656445307350224465&hl=en

(I hope you don't mind the little "commercial ad" in the end, but, good or bad English, we're going to use these videos for commercial purposes ;D - we'll put them in the free zone one day after here)

CPSL please..when you get a chance. :)
looks like it came out with a reverse merger like msi.

WGA 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8966994254229315394&hl=en

WGA is moderately interesting, very low market cap of $34 M.

NMEN.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1713501024227598102&hl=en

Zero revenues, relevant losses, $86 M market cap. The technology can be worth a lot, but that's very hard to know and probably there will be dilution going forward.

DCZ 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=839639990394400842&hl=en

Extremely low liquidity penny stock. I couldn't buy it even if I wanted. Fundamentals are nothing special.

USU 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5485503721995298916&hl=en

I don't remember very well of what I saw on USU, and that was just about 10 minutes ago, so probably I didn't saw anything compelling. But as always, thanks for the request, keep them coming :)

YMI 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=3290368033538907031&hl=en

YMI is a biotechnology stock, I don't know how to value biotech stocks, I'm sorry.

BRLC please! Tia!

David, you said you were gonna a look a little further on XING, any news from that?

IAAC 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=4956038637166946214&hl=en

IAAC is the most interesting so far today, just $174 M market cap for a $22 or so stock makes it run violently. I'll dig some more about IAAC later, moving closer to the 200 days SMA now.

Quote from: Se7en on January 18, 2007, 09:03:27 AM
BRLC please! Tia!

David, you said you were gonna a look a little further on XING, any news from that?

Yes, I went halfway on an in depth analysis yesterday on XING, but then I stumbled on something, I guess it was gross margin or something so I didn't consider it a buy for now (I have so many numbers in my head from the daily updates that I can't quite remember why I didn't want to buy it yesterday).

Since you're asking I'll make a full analysis on XING, probably tomorrow.

            sncr

Hi Dave,

Could you give me your opinion on MEAD.

Thanks

TINY please, long term nanotech, nanoRAM play.

How about SNDA?  Up nicely on earnings release.

TSO ; ICE ....both of these are on nice bull runs with no apparent end in sight. Thanks!

Hi David - Would you take a quick look at JRJC?

Thanks!
Derek

Ok, let's see what we have here: SNCR, MEAD, TINY, ICE and JRJC.

ICE is a Canadian stock and I don't have info for those. JRJC I already covered on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0).

And this leaves me with SNCR, MEAD and TINY to do. I'll try to write analysis on them over the weekend, still dealing with Reuters data link for them to reestablish the service (the service is in Ramburg's name and he's in Peru).

Good morning :)

Quote from: trexkerry on February 13, 2007, 10:40:49 AM
How about SNDA?  Up nicely on earnings release.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 16, 2007, 04:27:42 AM
Ok, let's see what we have here: SNCR, MEAD, TINY, ICE and JRJC.

ICE is a Canadian stock and I don't have info for those. JRJC I already covered on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0).

And this leaves me with SNCR, MEAD and TINY to do. I'll try to write analysis on them over the weekend, still dealing with Reuters data link for them to reestablish the service (the service is in Ramburg's name and he's in Peru).

Good morning :)

David, please look at SNDA too,  I think you skipped my post!  Hope you're feeling better.

David, I am curiuos about JSDA.  I realize it's valuation is high for current earnings, however, it has gone from 2% to 25% market penetration in a contract with a national distributor (FIZ) and when JSDA announces earnings on March 8th, they will also announce new retail stores that are selling their products.  On yahoo message boards, they have been spotted in Costco, Wal-mart, Target Krogers, Publix, Smith's and a few other grocery stores that I can't recall.  Before Dec. 31 they had an exclusive contract with Target and now have new contract with bev. distributor.  They sell soda (multiple flavors in regular, diet and the new pure cane sugar, and also have organic drinks, teas and energy drinks)  Cramer tauted them as the next HANS back in Dec.  I know Setravis has held JSDA for a while.  What is your opinion of JSDA?  Is there really a 10 fold potential with the PPS/market cap. in the next 2 years?  Thanks in advance.  Elliemae  :)

David, can you please look into ACY. Just 1.6 Millions shares outstanding. good YOY rev increase. Chart looks good too.

Quote from: stock on January 19, 2007, 11:47:50 AM

            sncr

Good morning stock :)

SNCR is a recent IPO stock, but we can already see the trend is bullish, with the stock reacting positively to each touch on the ascending 50 days moving average.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $560 M. Synchronoss Technologies is a provider of e-commerce transaction management solutions to the communications services marketplace based on our penetration into key providers of communications services.
- Balance sheet is very strong, with $73 M in cash and just $9 M in total liabilities.
- Revenue trend is positive. Revenues were $16 M in 2003, $27 M in 2004, $54 M in 2005 and $72 M in 2006. The revenue multiple is 7.8, which looks high. Gross margin is 46%
- EPS declined from $0.5 in 2005 to $0.35 in 2006 due to taxes. The trailing earnings multiple is 50 :o

As for 2007 we have the following guidance:

• CORRECTED - CORRECTED-UPDATE - Synchronoss Tech raises 2007 outlook; gives Q1 view (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=11vg30000/*http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh99672_2007-02-07_14-56-14_bng206293_newsml)
at Reuters (Wed, Feb 7)

So, they're expecting 50 cents EPS for 2007, putting the forward earnings multiple at 35.

My overall opinion is the stock has great fundamentals, but that is already more than reflected in the share price. Any revenue or earnings shortfall and the stock will probably tank.

As I said in the beginning and you can check on the chart below, the trend is bullish, but this second leg up was made on lower volume. That might mean there's less people and money involved this time, that is, less people believe the stock is a buying opportunity at this point. It can be developing a top (although I don't like to pick tops and bottoms).

Quote from: boatguy on January 20, 2007, 01:07:49 PM
Hi Dave,

Could you give me your opinion on MEAD.

Thanks

Hi boatguy :)

MEAD is a $54 M market cap company. From now on this thread will be used for analysis on demand on stocks with more than $500 M market cap. For the ones with less than that, as MEAD for example, you should request the analysis on the daily thread at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0), ok?

Thanks.

Quote from: tokyopua on January 23, 2007, 12:43:06 AM
TINY please, long term nanotech, nanoRAM play.

Hi Tokyopua :)

TINY is a $250 M market cap company, if you're still interested in this analysis please request it on the daily thread at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0).

Thanks.

EDIT: nm I just noticed more then 500m now...

David what do you think of GMR?

QuoteDavid, please look at SNDA too,  I think you skipped my post!  Hope you're feeling better.

Hi trexkerry :)

SNDA's chart shows a positive trend, with both, the 50 and the 200 days moving averages with positive slopes and the 50 days above the 200 days. The stock just had what looks to be a breakaway gap due to the following news:

• UPDATE - China's Shanda Q4 net beats forecasts, shares up (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=11vg30000/*http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh38262_2007-02-13_07-43-29_n2c425731_newsml)
at Reuters (Tue, Feb 13)

- Market cap is $1.75 B. Shanda Interactive offers a portfolio of online games that users play over the Internet. The games the Company operates are licensed to them by third parties as well as developed in-house.
- Revenue trend is positive if we consider the yearly table, but revenues in Q3 2006 were actually down 9.8% from Q3 2005. But Q4 was stronger than expected, with revenues coming in at $60.3 M compared to $48 M in Q4 2005.
Total 2006 revenues were $211.9 M, down 12.8% from 2005 levels.
- As for profits, EPS was $0.94 for 2006, down from $2.26 in 2005. This puts the trailing earnings multiple at 26.
But, 4th quarter EPS was $0.42 and if we annualize this we get $1.68 EPS and the earnings multiple would then be 14.6.

I think the stock looks interesting at this point, but I wonder if competitors like NCTY aren't more attractive. I see the company's long term potential, but I don't find it all that cheap, for a Chinese company (we know they always carry a discount valuation due to political and other concerns).

I'm neutral on SNDA.

Quote from: elliemae on February 18, 2007, 07:03:48 PM
David, I am curiuos about JSDA.  I realize it's valuation is high for current earnings, however, it has gone from 2% to 25% market penetration in a contract with a national distributor (FIZ) and when JSDA announces earnings on March 8th, they will also announce new retail stores that are selling their products.  On yahoo message boards, they have been spotted in Costco, Wal-mart, Target Krogers, Publix, Smith's and a few other grocery stores that I can't recall.  Before Dec. 31 they had an exclusive contract with Target and now have new contract with bev. distributor.  They sell soda (multiple flavors in regular, diet and the new pure cane sugar, and also have organic drinks, teas and energy drinks)  Cramer tauted them as the next HANS back in Dec.  I know Setravis has held JSDA for a while.  What is your opinion of JSDA?  Is there really a 10 fold potential with the PPS/market cap. in the next 2 years?  Thanks in advance.  Elliemae  :)

You got me interested on JSDA, the problem is it is just a $344 M market cap company and we're looking to study stocks with more than $500 M market cap on this thread.

Can you please copy/paste this exact post to the 3 Stocks on Fire porftolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0) right after the market opens? (or later, no problem with that)

Thanks elliemae :)

Quote from: njshiva on February 18, 2007, 11:16:04 PM
David, can you please look into ACY. Just 1.6 Millions shares outstanding. good YOY rev increase. Chart looks good too.

I already made an analysis on ALY njshiva, let me copy/paste it to here:

«Yes, let me take a look at ALY, never heard of that stock before, so thanks for the request :)

The medium and long term technical trend, given by the slope of the moving averages and an ascending trendline, is still bullish. But, as you say, the stock has been weak in 2007.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $430 M. Company provides services and equipment to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, domestically in Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Colorado, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Utah, Wyoming, offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, & internationally in Mexico.
- Balance sheet shows growing long term debt, at $262 M now. That can put pressure on future earnings, as interest costs erode net profit margins.
- Revenue trend is quite positive. Growing strongly for eight quarters in a row, which is impressive. Revenue in Q3 alone was $85 M. On average, analysts are expecting revenues of $305 M for fiscal 2006 and $522 M for fiscal 2007.
- In terms of EPS, the company was profitable for the past three quarters and is expected to earn $1.74 in 06 and $2.15 in 07. That puts the forward earnings multiple at 8 which is attractive.

Let's put the dilution issue in context:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33236;image)

The share count has been increasing about 14% a quarter since Q1 2004 :o

That by itself made the market cap rise 520% without any increase in the share price (that is, the share price rose, but the market cap rose a lot more).

As you say, recently they sold 6 million shares more and sold $250 M in convertible notes to pay down debt. That will put the potential share count at about 45 million and that means the market cap will be around $780 M considering the price the stock is trading now. That will also make it harder for the company to meet the EPS projections, and this way it doesn't look so cheap, with a higher than 1 revenue multiple.

I really don't like dilution and I would say this management doesn't have an history of working for the shareholder's benefit. Yes, they are growing the company, but at the expense of the shareholder, not for the shareholder, because a shareholder needs the share price, not the market cap, to rise!

I'm not a fan, I wouldn't invest in this company, but thanks for the suggestion, good luck :)»

Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 05:52:06 AM

Quote from: njshiva on February 18, 2007, 11:16:04 PM
David, can you please look into ACY. Just 1.6 Millions shares outstanding. good YOY rev increase. Chart looks good too.


I already made an analysis on ALY njshiva, let me copy/paste it to here:

Thanks David. But my request was for ACY.

Never mind david... just noticed that the subject says > 500mlns. So this may not be the candidate.

QuoteThanks David. But my request was for ACY.

Never mind david... just noticed that the subject says > 500mlns. So this may not be the candidate.

Sorry for the confusion njshiva :P

ACY is a $24 M market cap, if you please request for that analysis on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0) after the market opens, thanks :)

David, what are your thoughts on NUAN and CECE?

Hi,
what about GIGM new 52 weeks high?

tia
Oliver

Hi David,

   What are your thoughts about this mining and steel company MTL, operating in Russia. They seem to have been generating fat profits.

Thanks you.
Berloga.

David, I have a mixed opinion about requiring $500M market-cap for future picks in main portfolio. I understand the need for risk control, yet looking at the best performers so far: SYX, CPNE.OB, OFI, XING, they are either still below $500M, or came from below $500M (SYX!!!).

A while back I posted my concern regarding market favoring big-cap lately, and your response, which I think makes a lot of sense, was that as long as we pick stocks with good fundamentals, we should care less about the size of company. Moreover, it is precisely because of these excellent small/micro-cap picks the portfolio can tolerate some inevitable "losers" (like DIET, I know the jury is still out on this one, but just for argument's sake ... :-\) . Another point is, small/micro-cap stocks have none or very little Wall Street analyst coverage, maybe this is the very area a talented guy like yourself can excel and exploit the market inefficiency, and also the very area we retail investors can possibly have an edge.

At some point when the portfolio becomes too large, when you can not "efficiently" place an order for small/micro-cap stocks, maybe a better way to control risk yet not compromising your competitive edge is to enlarge the number of positions in the portfolio? Like from 15 stocks to 25 stocks ... 

Anyway, just some thoughts I feel like to throw out and I hope I made my point clear. I am very pleased with way this portfolio is going!  ;D

Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2007, 05:30:17 AM

You got me interested on JSDA, the problem is it is just a $344 M market cap company and we're looking to study stocks with more than $500 M market cap on this thread.

Can you please copy/paste this exact post to the 3 Stocks on Fire porftolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=38.0) right after the market opens? (or later, no problem with that)

Thanks elliemae :)

Good morning :)

I have NUAN, CECE, GIGM and MTL. I believe NUAN and CECE were covered on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board, check the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0). Anyway, I probably should review them again, I really like CECE, probably I should buy it for the Main, perhaps after more in depth study.

Today I'm short on time to cover these stocks, maybe tomorrow.

QuoteDavid, I have a mixed opinion about requiring $500M market-cap for future picks in main portfolio. I understand the need for risk control, yet looking at the best performers so far: SYX, CPNE.OB, OFI, XING, they are either still below $500M, or came from below $500M (SYX!!!).

A while back I posted my concern regarding market favoring big-cap lately, and your response, which I think makes a lot of sense, was that as long as we pick stocks with good fundamentals, we should care less about the size of company. Moreover, it is precisely because of these excellent small/micro-cap picks the portfolio can tolerate some inevitable "losers" (like DIET, I know the jury is still out on this one, but just for argument's sake ...  :-\) . Another point is, small/micro-cap stocks have none or very little Wall Street analyst coverage, maybe this is the very area a talented guy like yourself can excel and exploit the market inefficiency, and also the very area we retail investors can possibly have an edge.

I totally agree with you realcoolhead. I'm not willing to change the Main's holdings from small to mid or large caps, due to the motives you referred. On this thread my principal objective is to also cover some larger companies, because, we never know, there can be a really attractive opportunity and ... well, I hope someday I'll be managing large sums of money and I'll need to know large caps well ;) Also, there wasn't any answer for analysis requests of this type of stocks with the prior 3 SOF working model. Now there is, although limited by my personal time availability.

QuoteAt some point when the portfolio becomes too large, when you can not "efficiently" place an order for small/micro-cap stocks, maybe a better way to control risk yet not compromising your competitive edge is to enlarge the number of positions in the portfolio? Like from 15 stocks to 25 stocks ...

Great idea realcoolhead :) Probably that would work better than holding large caps with limited profit potential (although Buffet would totally disagree with this. We may have some discussion on this, and probably, he's right ... I'm still thinking about the issue).

QuoteAnyway, just some thoughts I feel like to throw out and I hope I made my point clear. I am very pleased with way this portfolio is going! ;D

Me too, thanks for your support realcoolhead :)

hi david,
whats up with VLO?
link:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3368.msg89500#new

cheers from SG
Oliver

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post...but can anyone (specifically David) answer what makes AlphaTrade Fundamentals better or worth more than finance.yahoo.com or cnbc.com???

Hi David,

What are your thoughts on CHINA and TRA?

Regards,

Capricho

Thanks for your requests and questions, I'll have to work throughout the weekend to address them, because during the day I don't have the necessary time. I guess 2 hours on Saturday plus 2 hours on Sunday will be enough :)

Sorry for this, thank you for your patience.

hi i have a request on OSK , MR and KMX

What do you think of PRS? (i posted on the 3stocksonfire but remebered this board was dedicated to 500M+)

Quote from: kpunarc on February 22, 2007, 12:18:46 AM
I'm not sure if this is the right place to post...but can anyone (specifically David) answer what makes AlphaTrade Fundamentals better or worth more than finance.yahoo.com or cnbc.com???

The fundamental tables are easier and faster to use. Also, they have 12 years of data. But I guess one could use other sources, I'm just more used to it.

1. Introduction

Quote from: berloga on February 20, 2007, 01:17:15 PM
Hi David,

What are your thoughts about this mining and steel company MTL, operating in Russia. They seem to have been generating fat profits.

Thanks you.
Berloga.

Hi berloga, the sector is interesting, let's see what else we have on MTL. Thanks :)

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33833;image)

MTL is now bullish and approaching the new all time high set on September 2005 at $36.95.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33834;image)

The stock is up 42% over the last month or so, and it looks somewhat overbought, but that is a much less important issue than the trend, which is quite bullish.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

The market cap is $4.69 B. Mechel is one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies. Mechel unites producers of coal, iron ore, nickel, steel, rolled products, and hardware. Mechel products are marketed domestically and internationally.

3.2. Share count evolution

The share count has remained more or less stable over the latest four quarters, as you can see on the bottom of the balance sheet table (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=mtl&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr). Each ADR is worth 3 common shares of the company, par value 10 Russian rubles.

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The current ratio is somewhat weak at 1.59, and there's long term debt of $350 M. 

3.4. Revenues

Revenues are growing a lot over the years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=mtl&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) and on the latest three reported quarters (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=mtl&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr), to $1.215 B in Q3 alone. Analysts are expecting $4.18 B in revenues in 2006 and $4.49 B in 2007.

3.5. Earnings

The company already had EPS of $2.77 over the first 9 months of 2006, and analysts are expecting (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=MTL) EPS of $3.54 for the full 2006 and $3.93 for 2007. I guess the company can beat these expectations, especially if the next four quarters go as Q3, where the company earned $1.41 per share - that would put EPS for 2007 at $5.64. This would put the forward earnings multiple at 6.

The Steel & Iron industry has an average earnings multiple of 11.21 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MTL).

3.6. Recent News

• Mechel Reports Nine Months 2006 Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061128/nytu118.html?.v=76)
PR Newswire (Tue, Nov 28)

• Mechel, Once More (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=11jgl2end/*http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2006/mft06120733.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y)
at Motley Fool (Thu, Dec 7)

• Mechel Announces Decisions of The Board of Directors (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061218/nym149.html?.v=67)
PR Newswire (Mon, Dec 18)

• Mechel Reports Its Operational Results for 2006 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/nytu054.html?.v=79)
PR Newswire (Tue, Jan 16)

• Mechel Announces A Change In Shareholder Structure (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070117/nyw018a.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Wed, Jan 17)

• Mechel Announces the Closure of the Privatization Contract for Mechel Targoviste (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070118/nyth102.html?.v=83)
PR Newswire (Thu, Jan 18)

4. General Overview

It looks like the stock is undervalued, but the catalyst moving it now is the combination of the following two sentences, in my opinion:

«Through a series of private transactions. Mr. Zyuzin increased his stake in Mechel to 71.62% as of December 31, 2006.»

«I always considered the core shareholders to bear most of responsibility for the business, so I decided to personally lead Mechel on its way to becoming a global player on the coal market. I will be able to return to the question of giving over operational control when we have achieved this goal."»

These are pretty strong sentences. Just from his position in MTL, this man, Mr. Zyuzin, has a wealth of $3.36 B.

The stock also looks cheap, considering the forward earnings multiple can be something like 6, if the 3rd quarter's financial performance is just maintained throughout 2007.

5. Rating

Positive.

David, can you look into BRKR when you get a chance please.

Thanks!!

Hi david
My first post on this place  :)

Can you take a look at OTEX  , I think it has a chance to  reach $30 soon  ;D

thanks

Quote from: kpunarc on February 22, 2007, 12:18:46 AM
I'm not sure if this is the right place to post...but can anyone (specifically David) answer what makes AlphaTrade Fundamentals better or worth more than finance.yahoo.com or cnbc.com???

Now I'm starting to use http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=msft and it feels even better than AlphaTrade's Fundamental's, and it's free :)

1. Introduction

Quote from: la-onda on February 22, 2007, 12:14:40 AM
hi david,
whats up with VLO?
link:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3368.msg89500#new

cheers from SG
Oliver

I guess the recent bull run has to do with the realization that oil didn't fall of a cliff, so those long term estimates on VLO had to be raised. But since we're here let's make a brief analysis on VLO.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33854;image)

The big move happened in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 and 07 VLO has been trading sideways.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33852;image)

The stock is again bullish, as it moved up above the $57.09 resistance level and the 200 days SMA.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $35.53 B. Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 company based in San Antonio, with approximately 22,000 employees and annual revenue of more than $90 billion. The company owns and operates 18 refineries throughout the United States, Canada and the Caribbean with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, making it the largest refiner in North America. Valero is also one of the nation's largest retail operators with approximately 5,500 retail and branded wholesale outlets in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean under various brand names including Valero, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Beacon. Please visit www.valero.com for more information.

3.2. Share count evolution

On line "Basic Weighted Average Shares (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=VLO)" you see VLO's share count rose over the years. This means each share represents less of the company, that is, historical dilution of shareholder's value.

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

On the 3Q 2006 balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=VLO&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) we can see the current ratio is low, at 1.21.

3.4. Revenues

On the income statement annual table (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=VLO&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) you can see there was very strong revenue growth over the years, but growth slowed in 2006, as the oil price declined in that year.

On the quarterly table (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=VLO&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr), or "Interim" as MSN Money calls it, we can see the 4Q 2006 was the weakest of the last five quarters, but was completely discounted by the very attractive earnings multiple, so the stock rallied.

3.5. Earnings

On the bottom of this page (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=VLO&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) you see the Diluted Normalized EPS and the very high EPS growth over the years. In the full year of 2006 the company delivered $8.64 EPS, which puts its trailing multiple at 6.8, which seems quite low. This valuation was discounting a big decline in the oil price, which didn't materialize. For 2007 analysts are now estimating $7.02 EPS, so the forward multiple is 8.37.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=VLO) has an average earnings multiple of 10.3, so VLO indeed looks undervalued.

4. General Overview

VLO is trading at below average earnings multiples, but I dislike the balance sheet and the historical tendency to dilute shareholder's value. VLO trades like an oil future, up and down with oil, with an almost perfect correlation.

My take is oil won't go anywhere for years, as demand and supply are evenly balanced. I see it trading between $50 and $70. Valero can rise some 40 or 50% more from current levels, or more, but I'm not a fan of the business and it is already too big for my taste, with a market cap of more than $35 B.

5. Rating

Neutral

1. Introduction

Quote from: capricho on February 22, 2007, 09:15:01 AM
Hi David,

What are your thoughts on CHINA and TRA?

Regards,

Capricho

Hi Capricho, you know I sold CHINA (too early), because my long term estimates pointed to an average annual long term growth of about 8.8%, remember? Let me see if I can find that selling justification. Here it is: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7262.msg80934#msg80934

But let's take a fresh new look at it.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33855;image)

This chart shows some technically important levels, as the 2003 high of $14.9 and the 2004 high of $12.75.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33856;image)

CHINA's short term chart is really beautiful, with a strong bullish trend.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $1.18 B. CDC Corporation provides enterprise software, mobile applications, and online games primarily in China.

3.2. Share count evolution

There wasn't significant dilution since 2000 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=china&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann).

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

Current ratio is 1.49, so below the 2 minimum threshold that shows a healthy short term liquidity picture. Book value is $433 M.

3.4. Revenues

Over this table you can see historical revenues, which were $245 M in 2005 and are expected to come in at $307.52 M in 2006 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=CHINA). This means YoY revenue growth of 25%.

3.5. Earnings

EPS was negative in 2004 and 05 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=china&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann), and $0.07 for the first 9 months of 2006. Analysts are expecting another $0.07 for the December quarter (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=CHINA), and that would put the 2006 number at $0.14 (although analysts were predicting $0.31 for the full year of 2006, this is weird).

If the 4Q number comes in at $0.07, that means $0.14 for the full year of 2006 and a trailing earnings multiple of 75.

For 2007 analysts, on average, are expecting EPS of $0.52, and that means a forward earnings multiple of 20.

4. General Overview

CHINA is a great stock and company, but already a $1.2 B market cap. The stock is trading at one of the highest trailing EPS multiples outthere for a Chinese company that doesn't file forms 10 with the SEC.

It needs to increase profitability.

I maintain that CHINA will probably grow revenues by about 25% a year for the next 10 years, but without a big jump in net profit margin the stock looks overvalued at this point. A miss on a quarterly revenue or EPS number would make it tank hard. I'll keep CHINA under the radar, because at half the price I would want to get in again, as my 8.81% average annual long term share price  increase estimate would rise to about 17%.   

5. Rating

Neutral.

Hi David, thanks for the analysis on CHINA. I suspect there's probably some intrinsic value in just having a ticker name like that which may explain the run-up and bloated valuation.

Regarding the poll that starts today I nominate TRA for consideration. I got into this stock about two months ago and have made good friends with its trend, but I'm concerned about it being overbought now.

Capricho

David, as you said you might want to add a few long positions, can you take a look at NVTL? It looks amazingly strong in this down market. Thanks!

David what do you think of a long position in CMGI in this market?

Here's a few to run through the 3SOF machine!

"OCN"
"FRE"
"CORS"
"CCRT"
"SLM"
"AOG"
"WRES"

I have a few more i'll post in the 3SOF on fire tomorrow morning...

...above are possible shorts....fyi

A good looking short is AHM possible mortgage lender bankrupt short play  >:D.

How about a long position stock, David? Can you please check out PRS?

Quote from: lancefur on March 07, 2007, 07:46:00 AM
How about a long position stock, David? Can you please check out PRS?

I'll be looking into long positions in a few days, I feel it is still early to do that now. I have several stocks to cover on this thread, but today I have a terrible headache, I don't know if I'll be able to work during the afternoon (I hope a coffee will help).

Will come back to this thread soon, see ya :)

David if you are still doing analysis under this thread what do you think of DRQ?

I did'nt know exactly which forum I should post this but here it goes:

Can anyone tell me what software or website that will offer powerful screens combined with brief earnings information on a single page or  close to it as possible.  Preferably the program will also allow me to create a template to chart the dilution of shares, earnings, ROA, ROE etc... for all the stocks I am interested in without repeating the process everytime. (By the way where do you find the information regarding its history of share dilution?) I have currently subscribed to Yahoo's Screener but the problem is it will not let me upload any excel files and does not have the capabilities I mentioned and would like to have.

I am learning so much from this site.  Thank you all (esp. for all the analysis David). 
Thanks
cctabla

Quote from: David Randolph on March 07, 2007, 07:51:03 AM

Quote from: lancefur on March 07, 2007, 07:46:00 AM
How about a long position stock, David? Can you please check out PRS?

I'll be looking into long positions in a few days, I feel it is still early to do that now. I have several stocks to cover on this thread, but today I have a terrible headache, I don't know if I'll be able to work during the afternoon (I hope a coffee will help).

Will come back to this thread soon, see ya :)

Hello David,

Can you please look into FFHL ...a recent IPO.
Fuwei Films shares surge on 2006 results
Marketwatch - April 05, 2007 10:12 AM ET

Related Quotes
Symbol         Last    Chg
FFHL    Trade    12.00    0.00
Real time quote.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fuwei Films Holdings Co. shares rose 19% to $11.63 in Thursday morning trade after the China-based company reported 2006 net income of $8.7 million, or $7.88 a share, and revenue of $56 million, up 26% from the previous year. The company makes plastic films used to package food, medicine and other products

Net income $7.88/share looks great. Out standing shares is just 13Mlns.Share price trading above 50/200 moving avg.

The demand should always be there for its products since they cater consumer goods sector.

QuoteSAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fuwei Films Holdings Co. shares rose 19% to $11.63 in Thursday morning trade after the China-based company reported 2006 net income of $8.7 million, or $7.88 a share, and revenue of $56 million, up 26% from the previous year. The company makes plastic films used to package food, medicine and other products

Net income $7.88/share looks great. Out standing shares is just 13Mlns.

Yes, but pay attention njshiva, the share count changed a lot after the company's IPO in December 2006, and that $7.88 EPS per share is based on a weighted average of shares outstanding. If the latest share count of 13,062,500 is used, EPS would be just $0.67, and the PER would then be 18.

It can still be attractive, but the press release is somewhat misleading. I'll cover it, thanks :)

David take a look a SIMO

Hi David, do you think the fundamentals right now are leading a BEAR MARKET?
Here is the track of bear paw:
preventing US $ crash --> Fed save $ --> raise or stay IR --> house bubble worse -->  sub-prime burst more --> mortgage burst --> financial sector, bank burst --> high oil price -->  consumer spending slow -->  credit card debt burst --> slow economy growth --> corporation earning slow --> US stock market down ( plus uncertainty: Iran war)

How do you think?

Quote from: gix330 on April 10, 2007, 12:42:17 AM
Hi David, do you think the fundamentals right now are leading a BEAR MARKET?
Here is the track of bear paw:
preventing US $ crash --> Fed save $ --> raise or stay IR --> house bubble worse -->  sub-prime burst more --> mortgage burst --> financial sector, bank burst --> high oil price -->  consumer spending slow -->  credit card debt burst --> slow economy growth --> corporation earning slow --> US stock market down ( plus uncertainty: Iran war)

How do you think?

I agree their is way to many problems out there to fundamentally support a booming bull market. I am staying neutral but swayed to the bear side. I am waiting for the tide to change with some confirmed signals to switch back to the bear side.

Hi David, please check ALY (nice FA & TA)

David can you please give me your opinion on  cfpc

QuoteBy the way where do you find the information regarding its history of share dilution?

That information is on the 3 SOF Strategy Disclosed document, which you can download here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9302.msg95049#msg95049

You can find the historical share count data at this MSN Money link: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wcg&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann

Quote from: yukiii on April 09, 2007, 11:07:47 PM
David take a look a SIMO

The chart doesn't look particularly attractive and it is already a $2.6 B market cap, why should I take an in depth look at it, any specific fundamental reason? Thanks yukiii :)

Quote from: gix330 on April 10, 2007, 12:42:17 AM
Hi David, do you think the fundamentals right now are leading a BEAR MARKET?
Here is the track of bear paw:
preventing US $ crash --> Fed save $ --> raise or stay IR --> house bubble worse -->  sub-prime burst more --> mortgage burst --> financial sector, bank burst --> high oil price -->  consumer spending slow -->  credit card debt burst --> slow economy growth --> corporation earning slow --> US stock market down ( plus uncertainty: Iran war)

How do you think?

My recent strategic achievements lead me to believe that I should ignore the general market movements or macroeconomics on my stock picking and portfolio management process.

But if you ask me I believe we're in a long term bull market.

Quote from: la-onda on April 13, 2007, 08:52:19 AM
Hi David, please check ALY (nice FA & TA)

Yes, I'll try to cover it today.

Quote from: stock on April 16, 2007, 12:27:30 PM

David can you please give me your opinion on  cfpc

I'll try to cover it tomorrow, but I see the company losing huge money as sales grow. It probably wouldn't fit my model, that is, the valuation model won't have good things to say about CFPC.OB.

Hi David,

If you get some time. I would like to get your opinion on:

SLP
SFE
CTCH
SNG

Thank you,

Ken

David, I think you might want to take a look at MTOX Medtox Scientific. ER just out. I wouldn't ask if I didn't really think it was worth a good look. SILC and TSL were a couple of my previous suggestions. Thanks. Here's the thread I started on it

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9341.0

david whats your take on ABAT?

David.   If you haven't already looked at CFPC, this stock is interesting

DAVID CAN YOU LOOK AT CFPC THIS STOCK HAS GONE UP .60  SINCE I REQUESTED IT ON FRIDAY..
I COULD USE SOME OF YOUR GOOD ADVICE

THANKS IN ADVANCE

STOCK

Quote from: stock on April 18, 2007, 01:05:41 PM
DAVID CAN YOU LOOK AT CFPC THIS STOCK HAS GONE UP .60  SINCE I REQUESTED IT ON FRIDAY..
I COULD USE SOME OF YOUR GOOD ADVICE

THANKS IN ADVANCE

STOCK

But stock, I already wrote a few remarks about CFPC.OB:

«Quote from: stock on April 16, 2007, 12:27:30 PM

David can you please give me your opinion on  cfpc

I'll try to cover it tomorrow, but I see the company losing huge money as sales grow. It probably wouldn't fit my model, that is, the valuation model won't have good things to say about CFPC.OB.»

It doesn't fit my model, since net profit margin in 2006 was -226%, the company sold $2.6 M and lost $8.53 M doing it. The balance sheet shows just $77 K in cash, even my little brother has more than that, so CFPC.OB can only be a penny stock pump to dilute all the way down to zero in my opinion.

Can be wrong, though, good luck :)

SORRY DAVID I DID NOT SEE YOUR COMMENTS ON CFPC.. THANKYOU FOR YOUR OPINION

Quote from: BigSully1 on April 17, 2007, 09:21:07 AM
David, I think you might want to take a look at MTOX Medtox Scientific. ER just out. I wouldn't ask if I didn't really think it was worth a good look. SILC and TSL were a couple of my previous suggestions. Thanks. Here's the thread I started on it

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9341.0

Oops David! just saw your video on MTOX. I guess I was too focused on the accelerating EPS growth and momentum and failed to see the bigger picture. Next time I will do more DD myself before I ask for you to use your time, I promise. But I'll keep hunting for prospects. Mucho thanks.

David,

Can you take a look at PRXI and NETC?

Cheers,

Quote from: labatts6254 on April 18, 2007, 10:27:10 PM
David,

Can you take a look at PRXI and NETC?

Cheers,

Hi labatts6254, I put PRXI on my "cover list" for today. NETC will have to be left for tomorrow.

Thanks for the suggestion :)

hi Daivd,
I would be very interested in an updated VPHM analysis based on your new valuation model.
Is there any chance?
VPHM 3SoF:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg96281#new
TA link:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p73983424029&a=95460738

thanks in advance from Singapore

Oliver

Good idea la-onda, I'm also interested in covering VPHM using the new valuation model. Let me put PRXI, NETC and VPHM on tomorrow's list.

Greetings from Ericeira :)

hi david,
can you review CFPC . ob when you get a chance
thanks
max

Quote from: rickjust on April 23, 2007, 06:58:51 PM
hi david,
can you review CFPC . ob when you get a chance
thanks
max

Hi Rickjust, I already made a few comments on CFPC.OB on this thread, I know the stock keeps rising, but it wouldn't fit my model since it has very low revenues and is losing more and more money. The balance sheet is also very weak with just $77 K in cash and equivalents. At first sight CFPC.OB is a pump & dilute scheme, you never know for how long the pump will go on, but when it's over, the stock will probably go down to below where everything started.

Nice to see you :)

Quote from: David Randolph on April 24, 2007, 07:20:47 AM

Hi Rickjust, I already made a few comments on CFPC.OB on this thread, I know the stock keeps rising, but it wouldn't fit my model since it has very low revenues and is losing more and more money. The balance sheet is also very weak with just $77 K in cash and equivalents. At first sight CFPC.OB is a pump & dilute scheme, you never know for how long the pump will go on, but when it's over, the stock will probably go down to below where everything started.

Nice to see you :)
[/quote]




thanlks david

what do you guys think of PFACP its had a nice run in '07.

Has anyone looked at New Oriental Education and Technology?

EDU

IPO Sept 06. End of Dec. 29 Mutual funds held shares. Has about doulbled since. PE a little high I guess at 59. Debt 22%.  Last Q EPS +500% @ 24c/share. Prior Q +250%. Last Q sales +57%. Accelerating YOY sales growth last 5Q's from 16% to 57%.

From Yahoo;

DETAILS   
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Services
Industry: Education & Training Services
Full Time Employees: 370


BUSINESS SUMMARY   
New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. provides private educational services based on the number of program offerings, total student enrollments, and geographic presence in China. It offers a range of educational programs, services, and products consisting primarily of English and other foreign language training; test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the People?s Republic of China, and Commonwealth countries; primary and secondary school education; development and distribution of educational content; software and other technology; and online education. The company also provides professional certification preparation programs for PRC bar, Certified Public Accountant, and civil service exams. It provides educational services under ?New Oriental? brand. The company also distributes and sells books and other educational materials through its own distribution channels, which consist of bookstores and websites, as well as through third-party distributors. In addition, it provides consulting services to students regarding overseas studies and related processes, such as visa applications. New Oriental Education & Technology Group was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

With the booming Chinese economy, more and more Chinese are becoming more affluent, allowing them to privately educate their children. Along with this boom it has been attracting more and more foreign companies that greatly value English speaking workers. End of Feb. they had 128 learning centers and  199,000 students.

This stock isn't in the bargain bin, but still looks attractive to me. But I guess there could be  dilution ahead also?

I'm unsure of how it looks technically right now.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98864158411

May not be much to analyze here but AOD looks like a very nice conservative play.  Current price:  $21.58

A new IPO that might be worth a look is DEEP.  They're in the Oil Well Services and Equipment sector.

Some long term growth companies

IPGP
Manufactures fiber laser systems.
Superior technology, vertically-integrated business model and low-cost manufacturing capabilities.
Fiber lasers continue to supplant traditional systems.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +30%
52-Week Range: $17.78 - $28.00


BBND
Makes hardware and software to support switched video.
Technological lead and real-world experience with switched video.
Adoption of cost-effective switched video technology by cable operators.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +40%
52-Week Range: $16.30 - $20.75

EV
Asset manager with a leading position in closed-end funds.
Targeting closed-end funds and tax-efficient investments, two profitable and underserved niches.
Growing popularity of income oriented closed-end funds.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +15%
52-Week Range: $23.83 - $38.66

GROW
Manager of no-load mutual funds.
Focus on underserved emerging markets and commodities niches.
Growth Drivers:  Continued demand and strong inflows for the firm's key asset classes.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +25%
52-Week Range: $8.78 - $36.36

COTE.ob -> I purchased most of my shares in the $0.30 and $0.40 range in early April through May 2 and sold 1/3 of my position on Monday for $1.40s.

Kept the rest for now.

When will the fire burn itself out?

David, 

OFI reported yesterday with disappointing earnings because of startup costs for 32 new products including 8 for H. J. Heinz Company.

Would you please do a new analysis of OFI?

Thanks

Quote from: kenmann on May 08, 2007, 10:58:20 AM
David, 

OFI reported yesterday with disappointing earnings because of startup costs for 32 new products including 8 for H. J. Heinz Company.

Would you please do a new analysis of OFI?

Thanks

Kenmann, can you please write that request on the new analysis on demand thread over the Main Portfolio message board? Thanks.

David, can you please look at GTI.

Thanks

Quote from: njshiva on May 10, 2007, 08:50:10 AM
David, can you please look at GTI.

Thanks

This isn't the right thread njshiva, please request that analysis at 11 AM, ET, at the Main Portfolio message board (I'll open the thread at that time).

Thanks :)

David, I was going to add this about Roy, but you closed the other thread so fast.

Quote from: BigSully1 on May 11, 2007, 11:02:34 AM
ROY

ROY - International Royalty

DETAILS   
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
Full Time Employees: NaN


BUSINESS SUMMARY   
International Royalty Corporation owns royalty interests primarily in mineral properties worldwide. The company holds approximately 60 royalties, including an effective 2.7% net smelter return royalties (NSR) on the Voisey's Bay mine, a sliding-scale NSR on the Pascua gold project, and a 1.5% NSR on approximately 3.0 million acres of gold lands in Western Australia. Its royalty portfolio includes Southern Cross, Williams Mine, Gwalia, Yaloginda, Belahouro, Aviat One, Tarmoola, and South Laverton properties, as well as overriding royalty interests in approximately 20 million acres of lands located in Nunavut Territory in Canada, and royalty interests on the Pinson gold and Hasbrouck Mountain gold-silver deposits in Nevada. International Royalty Corporation was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado

Revs past 3Q's +1764%, +7,500%, +8,564%. Losses 2004, 2005. profitable 2006. recently bought 10% stake in New Horizon Uranium.

Good article;

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070419/32846_id.html?.v=1

Chart;

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59191861522&a=106263687

David,
please check WWAT!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7777.msg99548#new

cheers
O.

CRNT

Ceragon Networks engages in the
design, development, manufacture, and sale of high-capacity, point-to-point
wireless backhaul solutions. Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $33.9
million, up 59% from $21.3 million for the first quarter of 2006. Based on strong
demand from emerging markets, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, they
revised their revenue growth target for 2007 upward from an increase of around
25% to an increase of about 30% over 2006.

David, Can you please check SAPE. Thanks

Quote from: nica33 on June 05, 2007, 10:47:32 AM
David, Can you please check SAPE. Thanks

Hi nica33 and others, now I've doing analysis on demand at www.stocksonvideo.com, and then we follow up on the initial analysis, check it out, it's working quite well :)