Let's start looking for those 3 red hot stocks to buy for short term purposes. Give me your suggestions (by replying this thread with the symbol and additional info if you want - you need to be logged in to write) that I'll make a 3 minute video analysis on them.
Thanks for your participation :)
MCRI and NDN. Thanks.
DROOY Please
MCRI, NDN and DROOY, thanks :)
In the future we'll accept just one suggestion per member, but since this is just starting I'll take whatever you give me ;D
I see there's a problem with the permissions on this Board, and only Premium Members are allowed to write so far. I've called Ramsburg to change the permissions (since this is still just experimental it will be open for everyone), but since he was up all night setting the new Portfolio up he doesn't answer the phone :-\ Monday it will be fine.
David, I know I am in minority, but I am against the idea of opening a new short-term oriented portfolio.
You have already spent considerable time managing the main portfolio. At least more than three times you expressed that "you are not feeling well" or "you are tired". I feel this new portfolio (naturally much more intense) will add further strain on your time and energy, hinder your judgments and eventually burn you out (again).
A lot of people want you to repeat the performance in 2005. That will certainly be very nice of course. Yet as you said "you are lucky in 2005", and if you take off that "AMRE.OB" which returned more than 1200%, the result will be much less spectacular albeit still very decent. (I did some analysis last May before I joined 3SOF: the average return on all picks by then was 10.27%, but if you take AMRE.OB away, the average drops to 4.73%. If you do a very unscientific extrapolation, the total return to date would be 112% instead of 242%, which is still more than 40% annual return!) My point is that people have to be realistic and keep their expectation in check. Even if we "only" grow 30% every year (somewhere I saw that figure in one of your message on your long-term oriented approach), you can make almost 200-fold on you money in 20 years!
Instead of opening a volatile portfolio, I actually suggest that you expand the main portfolio to include 25 stocks and make each pick 4% of the portfolio. Yesterday when NASDAQ dropped 36 points, many sectors actually gained (when I look at my 401K account, I actually saw marginal gain yesterday). By increasing the number of stocks to 25, you can diversify a little bit more. And by paying attention to include stocks from more different sectors, you can reduce the volatility of the portfolio. Someone might think it is going to be like an uninteresting mutual fund, but a 25-stock portfolio is still a very narrow portfolio and a 30% annual return is still not medioc at all!
Anyway, I'd like to see you stick to the gun, "stay the course" (sounds like Mr. Bush ... ) and don't get discouraged by short-term setback. I also like to see you more relaxed, maybe spend more time away from the market (you really don't have to update every pick every day, especially for those you don't have much to say on that day). As I said before, the quality of your buy/sell decision depends on the freshness of you mind. Come to think about it, I am like 10-year older than you, if I am not hurry, why you?
Hmmm, it looks like AussieTrader's suggestion is gone and I can't remember the ticker ... he's been away from US stocks, what a pity. Well, I know he'll be back :)
Thanks for the great post realcoolhead, but this isn't the place to talk about those issues, perhaps the "Long Term vs Short Term" thread on the Members Board?
Anyway, I agree with most of what you say, but you have to understand that you're a minority, most people don't have the capital to spread it through 25 different holdings.
See ya, and don't worry, I'll be here for the long term :)
3 minute look on MCRI:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1305325342410123833&hl=en
Interesting, but volume is too low. NDN next.
EXCS.OB
3 minute look for NDN:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1130803136233268051&hl=en
It opened with a big gap up, volume is very strong for this time of the day. I don't like to see a very big gap up after a 20% rise in just 7 days on a $1 B plus market cap company. It looks like the open was a short term top.
Thanks and good luck :)
Oh Crap, David, check the blocks going thru on EXCS.OB. WOWAZ!!!
3 minute look on DROOY:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1516622433225901965&hl=en
DROOY shows a bearish trend, oversold now, may bounce but there's a lot of overhead resistance. Fundamentals suck too. Good luck anyway.
STXN - Thanks David!
EXCS.OB 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8953181974086944463&hl=en
We have a winner, EXCS.OB was just bought for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). Risky play because we don't have all the information (we can never have), but the ingredients are there for a huge run up (already up 128% as we speak).
If the market cap numbers and the news are correct, this penny stock may fly another 100% or more. We'll dig some more, but I'm in at $0.062.
I see now the current market cap is $1.46 M. I estimate December sales at $455,000. For 12 months that would be $5.4 M. To have a forward revenue multiple of 1 it should rise to $0.22 (not considering growth or dilution, and both will certainly happen).
Anyway, I have to dig further, let's see how this plays out until the end of the session.
Bring me more, I don't want to be distracted looking at the quotes ;D
Thats what I'm talking about baby. ;D Thanks David.
Hi David - I know I already posted one, but if you're looking for more, what do you think of NIHK.OB?
Derek
Quote from: dnickers on January 19, 2007, 11:29:42 AM
STXN - Thanks David!
Hi Derek, I thought I already posted a video on STXN, but no, I made it, but did not post it. Well, obviously the stock isn't on fire, at least not today, so here's a more long term video:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3508583007168823158&hl=en
Please consider I had just 3 minutes to check the stock, so there can be a lot of positives and negatives that I didn't saw. The main objective of this is to show more or less what to look for, when looking at a stock for the first time.
NIHK.OB? Once I covered that stock on www.otcbbcoverage.com, but that website is down now due to the recent server change. I'll look at it again, thanks :)
(now I see why I didn't publish this STXN video when I made it, the forward earnings multiple is about 15, not 59 as I say in the later part of the video, so forget what I told about overvalued, I don't have an opinion on the stock, I would have to dig much further, good luck :))
Opinion on HOKU appreciated David
NIHK.OB 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3162462197540386043&hl=en
Although NIHK.OB is a very small $7.5 M market cap company it looks overvalued, with an 8 times revenue multiple and relevant losses quarter after quarter.
HOKU 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7582229088331866453&hl=en
HOKU looks compelling, but their business is very complex and certainly not on fire today. But I'll keep it under the radar, because after the contract they landed with Sanyo, I see support at roughly $50 M market cap, because that's about the yearly revenue expected from this huge contract. Also, the company has been profitable for the past few quarters.
So, not on fire today, but definitely worth keeping it under the radar ... perhaps it will come down to close some of that huge gap before another leg up unfolds, I'll dig further on HOKU, 3 or 4 minutes was not enough.
You can give me more, still about 3 hours to the close :) Let me call Ramsburg again to see if he opens the board for everybody to be able to write.
How about ENPT...chart looks ready to break.
thanks.
LTS
Quote from: David Randolph on January 19, 2007, 12:39:54 PM
NIHK.OB 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3162462197540386043&hl=en
Although NIHK.OB is a very small $7.5 M market cap company it looks overvalued, with an 8 times revenue multiple and relevant losses quarter after quarter.
I respectfully disagree with you on this one David. I think NIHK.ob is a stock to own in both the short term and long term. In your video, you failed to take into account all the positive news of late and the 92% revenue growth in the 3rd quarter of 2006 compared to 3rd quarter of 2005. The flow of positive news keeps on coming as of late so I can't wait to see what else they have up their sleeves.
Nighthawk Systems Third Quarter Revenues Improve 92%
Wednesday November 15, 7:00 am ET
Positive Trend Expected to Continue
SAN ANTONIO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nighthawk Systems, Inc. (OTCBB: NIHK - News), a leading provider of intelligent wireless power control and emergency notification products, announced today that revenues for the third quarter of 2006 were $231,710 as compared to $120,973 in 2005, an improvement of 92%. The net loss per share remained at ($0.01) per share. Revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 were $625,236, a 60% improvement over revenues of $390,567 for the first nine months of 2005. The net loss per share improved to ($0.04) for the first nine months of 2006 from ($0.06) for the first nine months of 2005.
ADVERTISEMENT
H. Douglas Saathoff, Nighthawk's CEO, commented, "While I'm extremely pleased that quarterly revenues almost doubled from last year to this year, I'm even more pleased that sales levels have continued to increase beyond this most recent quarter. We have already closed more orders during the first 45 days of the fourth quarter than we closed during the recently completed third quarter, so we look to close the year on an even stronger note."
Mr. Saathoff continued, "A sustained sales and marketing effort that began in 2005 has resulted in a great combination of sales growth from both new and existing customers in 2006. Approximately half of our revenues so far in 2006 have come from new customers, with the remaining half generated by recurring orders from existing customers. With a larger pipeline of qualified opportunities than ever before, and a stronger and more diverse customer base than ever before, I look forward to continued improvement in 2007."
Just adding my 2 cents worth.
NIHK.ob will hopefully close up or with another hammer by end of day. I suspect it won't be in this level for long.
Quote from: kslifka on January 19, 2007, 01:35:31 PM
How about ENPT...chart looks ready to break.
thanks.
ENPT 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=2152163648199467280&hl=en
I agree, looks ready to breakout but volume is very low today (perhaps because we're on a Friday), just 112,000 shares changing hands so far in the session. The stock made 15 million shares volume in December 1st when it reported quarterly results. We're back to those levels just below $6 but they will probably provide some resistance and ENPT will need much stronger volume to breakout.
Fundamentally ENPT looks like an interesting situation, this one goes to my list of "need a deeper analysis", joining HOKU for today.
Thanks :)
Thanks for complimenting the analysis on NIHK.OB thai626 (why the red ink?), you're right, I failed to read the latest news on the stock ... I had just 3 minutes and didn't look into it, so I'm very much obliged if some of you can dig a bit deeper than I'm able to.
Anyway, you're talking thousands on revenues, and I'm talking $7.5 M market cap, so keep that in mind. But good news expected when the company reports Q4 2006 and the stock is above that key $0.090 cent support level, so good luck ;)
Oh yeah baby, EXCS.OB movin on up at the exact time of the day it should be doing that. Let's hope it breaks the high of the day, at $0.075, over the last hour of trading to put everybody jumping on board before the close.
There it is - EXCS .076!
Thanks for the analysis on ENPT. Does need volume.
Also thanks to you and Pampano for EXCS.ob pick. I've been staying away from pennies...but that chart was just way to promising. :D
Great debut at "3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio" !!! 8)
EXCS.OB is making the trick.
Excellent choice David, and the Main Portfolio is also rising from the tide of blood of yesterday.
LTS 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3889016233223942819&hl=en
Something is moving the stock, but I couldn't find out what it was on this 3 minute look. Facing important technical resistance here at $1.98. Fundamental trends show a worsening picture. Something bullish is probably working behind the scenes, if someone finds out what it is, it can only help :)
It seems that no alert were emailed for EXCS. I was lucky to check the website. I hope we can get the alert through email in future.
Anyway great pick and strategy for 3SoF. Just reminded me of good ol' days of BRVO.OB. Applaud David.
On the run again! Niiiiicccceee!!! ;D
Quote from: stocky on January 19, 2007, 02:55:45 PM
It seems that no alert were emailed for EXCS. I was lucky to check the website. I hope we can get the alert through email in future.
Only if I can get Ramsburg or someone to send the alert, because I don't have time. Most of the times these trades will need quick action, and the e-mail takes some time to go.
Will talk to Ramsburg on that possibility, perhaps he can set up an automatism connected with the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) (wow, up 8% on its first day? Beginner's luck? For sure ;D) page to do it.
QuoteAnyway great pick and strategy for 3SoF. Just reminded me of good ol' days of BRVO.OB. Applaud David.
Yeah, great days on BRVO.OB :D
Let's give some applauses on pompano too, he made the EXCS.OB suggestion :o
Hi David, you were wondering about LTS? It just broke a new 52 week high and had a recent insider purchase of over 1 million shares.(very recent) I have a buy order set at 1.55, hope that helps. ;)
Pompano applaud.
David I strongly think that these 3SoF fast movers does need alert via email. I hope that some kind of auotmated system could be implemented.
Quote from: pompano on January 19, 2007, 03:10:13 PM
Hi David, you were wondering about LTS? It just broke a new 52 week high and had a recent insider purchase of over 1 million shares.(very recent) I have a buy order set at 1.55, hope that helps. ;)
Great info pompano :) Something had to be working behind the scenes, so it's insider buying. But on the other hand there are other people potentially selling 8.4 million shares.
I'm afraid the insider buy is perhaps just to convince those other selling stockholders to convert the warrants they have. It wouldn't be the first time I see an insider buying and filing the form 4 with the SEC to mask other types of selling. Might be wrong though, at $2.01 now.
HOKU is coming down to the "fill the gap" zone. This chart reminds me the one on ONSM ... ONSM came down to about half way to close the gap before pushing higher again. Will study and look to buy HOKU on a further (substantial) dip if the right technical setup is developed.
Therefore, this board is closed too. As you can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0) this message board is open only during market hours.
The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) was up from the initial $15,000 to $16,386, that is, 9%, but of course this was just beginner's luck (and pompano's help ;)), short term trading is a very hard and risky thing to do.
Have a nice weekend, see you on Monday :)