3SOF

Good morning !

Let's start one more session here at 3 Stocks on Fire, as we look for attractive short term momentum stocks.

To suggest a new pick to be analyzed you need to be logged in to www.3stocksonfire.org. If you're not registered yet, you can register here: register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

Let's keep those expectations low, we're not going to be able to find rocketing stocks everyday (and some days will show relevant losses), doesn't matter how hard we work. We're just looking to learn how to distinguish and select pure short term momentum plays, using both technical & fundamental analysis, and hopefully make some money in the process.

So, the session is opening, give me those suggestions, we have until 4 pm ET to cover them.

Thanks for your participation :)

OPBL

NENG... news this morning and formed a false breakdown below the 50 dma if it can hold the 50dma today and push higher.  Could have plenty of room to run now that it has gapped back above.

DSTI

Just want to say Hello. I'm new at this but I like the way you guys study the market. Hopefully I can learn and make some money as well. Any suggestion for a broker?

Thanks.

UMC is looking like it wants to go

UMC running now!

CFCJ

OPBL.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7809224660602068838&hl=en

It has been really on fire for the past couple of months but I think that's over with today's extremely high open.

NENG 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1343582485813802840&hl=en

Microsoft news can be significant but the press release lacks details. I don't like it opening so high, the news could have been priced in right at the open.

Still it looks mildly interesting on the fundamental side, good luck :)

Hi David

what about     AMEP.ob

Thanks

Quote from: willbrich on January 23, 2007, 09:37:05 AM
Just want to say Hello. I'm new at this but I like the way you guys study the market. Hopefully I can learn and make some money as well. Any suggestion for a broker?

Thanks.

www.interactivebrokers.com or www.e-trade.com, but I remember there were some suggestions for a zero commission broker (that lives on advertising revenues), please check out the Stock Market Talking board: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8711.0

Thanks for your participation, you're welcome  :)

NXXI

Hi cumulina, great to see you :)

3 minute look on DSTI:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-2785378012483979276&hl=en

I guess the recent agreement with note holders is giving hope to DSTI, but I fear more dilution as the company almost doesn't have sales and is losing big more (more than $6 M in Q3) every quarter. They need to start selling and fast, the market won't support it as it does with biotech companies.

Anyway, great idea, I hope they survive and can pull it out. Good luck :)

HGR all over the place- just printed 9.10

I'm with cumulina on DSTI...great short-term play if you ask me, especially considering the effect the State of the Union discussion may have on alternative energy plays tomorrow.

Oh, and consider BFLY for 3SOF ;D  Looks like it's rebounding a little here.

UMC 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=1220989451668393434&hl=en

UMC is a $12 B plus market cap company, we're looking for smaller companies for some fast moving trades. The intraday momentum looks great, lots of volume and price appreciation, but I also see overhead resistance around $3.80 - $3.90.

Good luck boatguy, your hand is hot >:D

I like BFLY...what do you think of TGC for 3SOF

Quote from: mbaugh on January 23, 2007, 09:53:22 AM
CFCJ

CFCJ is a Pink Sheet mbaugh, I'm sorry but we don't accept PK's, just NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX and OTCBB, as you can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0) (but good luck on that one)

Also I would appreciate everybody to put the .OB if it's an OTCBB traded stock.

Thanks :)

AMEP.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1676364778808604933&hl=en

AMEP.OB's land is valued at $20.9 M on the balance sheet, the current market cap is about $30 M and the company has no operations now.

Unless there's news I don't see it being on fire. Volume is very low lately, impossible to buy any position, even for the tiny 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, because liquidity in dollar terms is extremely low.

How about DENN

David,

Are you going to post update chart for AAGH.OB and HGR before you sell?  or  when to sell 3SOF?

Thanks.

dcrlin

How about GSEG.OB?

AAGH.OB sold @ $0.147.

I think it can go as high as $0.16, but I don't want to be greedy. 40% profit on the trade.

The thing is, during the night, I read the 10-Q of the company and found out that the CEO has 500,000 preferred shares that are convertible to 100,000,000 common shares of AAGH.OB. This makes AAGH's common shares a worthless piece of paper, the CEO will always own the company, no matter how many common shares we buy.

What do you think about TRMM?

NXXI 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7006086083810127877&hl=en

I have an hard time analyzing biotech stocks, but NNXI looks really interesting, because it has some significant sales and the news today seems huge. But still, it is trading much below the open, although it is still up 19% (this means it is losing some momentum throughout the day).

I wonder if this news was expected or not, if someone could give me an hand on NXXI ... it might be a great pick, let's gather some more information as the session goes.

Thanks for the tip ;)

Quote from: dcrlin on January 23, 2007, 10:59:54 AM
David,

Are you going to post update chart for AAGH.OB and HGR before you sell?  or  when to sell 3SOF?

Thanks.

dcrlin

Just seconds after I sell the stock I post it on the "Trades (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8769.0)" thread, on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) page and on this thread as you can see above. It's impossible to pre-plan these trades (like we do for the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)) because there's intraday information involved in the decision making process.

Thanks for the question, if you have some more, visit the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) section.

What about PTNR   ;).

Thanks Dave!!

Financials look weak, but the stock is on fire since yesterday, HBSC.OB

Quote from: nutsterrt on January 23, 2007, 10:26:30 AM
Oh, and consider BFLY for 3SOF ;D  Looks like it's rebounding a little here.

Hi nutsterrt, you know I absolutely love BFLY for longer term purposes, but I don't want to confuse people by analyzing it here, because I would definitely have to buy it and sell it when it wasn't on fire anymore, and that would lead to confusion, as I plan to hold BFLY for years to come, of course given that management doesn't spoil the astounding long term market opportunity.

I'm a Belgian newbie on this board and may I say how learnfull and not to mension interesting this forum is!
I'll sure gather as much information as possible on these stocks(on fire)!

Thanks in advance and greets to all,
Quilan

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070117/apfn_callon_petroleum_mover.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070117/apfn_callon_petroleum_mover.html?.v=1)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPE&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPE&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p)

Take a look at the "one year" chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49554287092 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49554287092)

Redabert

O yes, I'm Belgian too (Flemish)

XNL running on ethanol talk expectations in the state of the union address I think

NTMD is heating up

TGC 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1592936093355135534&hl=en

TGC is perhaps undervalued at current prices (given the value of it's non current assets), but volume is very low today, so not on fire.

Thanks, good luck :)

past 3SOF play, GSHF.OB also running on ethanol hype

DENN 3 minute look:



DENN can be a great long term investment, especially if it keeps up with the Q3 2006 performance. It would have been an obvious pick when it reported those results.

Not on fire today but I'll definitely keep it for a deeper study on the Premium section of the website.

HOLL

eslr

running before Bush's speech tonight.

GSEG.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1895968455561981319&hl=en

I see some improvement on the quarterly results, and it looks like it is trading below annual revenues (Price to Sales Ratio is less than 1), but liquidity is extremely low, just $70,000 traded today (despite 42,000,000 changing hands).

The stock is up 21% on the session, but not on fire because it is trading at opening levels, so not gathering momentum as the session goes on.

But some hope on that quarterly revenue trend, good luck :)

What do u think about ARSC? Ethanol related..had some pr this am....chart is interesting.....it tried to get to the last high of .06, but fell just short today.

also GSCT nhod just hit on ethanol news.


glta

thanks

julia

Quote from: nica33 on January 23, 2007, 11:14:42 AM
What about PTNR   ;).

Thanks Dave!!

PNTR was covered on yesterday's session nica33, I guess I was wrong in not buying it yesterday, since the stock is up 4.8% today ;)

I won't cover it again, I'm not a big fan (but not negative on it either), good luck :)

Quote from: tokyopua on January 23, 2007, 11:55:55 AM
past 3SOF play, GSHF.OB also running on ethanol hype

Preferred shares alert on that one tokyopua, I know that stock very well, the President and CEO of the company owns preferred shares always convertible to 80% of the company's common shares.

By the way, what happen to VRDM.OB and INSQ.OB, both owned by GSHF.OB? Delisted? Incorporated on GSHF.OB?

Unless the share structure has been changed lately (you need to read the SEC files to know it), the total number of common shares outstanding only represents 20% of the company's value, so be careful with that one.

Ok, so far the most promising I've seen is NXXI, so I bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at $2.27.

You can see the video analysis above on this thread.

GSCT IS REALLY LOOKING GOOD!

TRMM 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-2480913674700024012&hl=en

The chart shows a huge decline from $25 to about $2, so perhaps it is interesting for bottom fishers, but not for me, not for this Portfolio, just 17,000 shares changing hands when I looked at it.

Thanks anyway, good luck !

HBSC.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=4516947586808130578&hl=en

Up 37.5% already on today's session, so perhaps the news is already priced in. Technically it is banging on the 200 days, so there's high risk here, the stock can fall down 50% without prior notice.

I'll pass, thanks anyway tokyopua :)

ATVE.ob

Not really on fire today...but moving up nicely the past week.

CPE 3 minute look:



Not on fire today, but it certainly looks cheap, as most oil related companies do. I'm neutral on the oil price going forward, I believe supply and demand are equally balanced, so, I don't see much fundamental risk or potential here.

IMOS

Can you take a look to CBLI...?

XNL 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=6388141063445659557&hl=en

Everything ethanol related is up today, on a buy the rumor, sell the news type of trade. I just bought XNL for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) @ $3.16.

I'll probably sell it at tomorrow's open, nevermind the price.

The Portfolio is full invested now, so the competitive process will start.

Again, thanks for your participation :)

I'm running behind requests now, so I'll lock the board for some time as I try to catch up. I still have the following to cover today:

- NTMD
- HOLL
- ESLR
- ARSC
- GSCT
- ATVE.OB
- IMOS
- CBLI

Hi David,

You asked for my comment on NXXI so please allow for a 3 sec. non video fundamental view.

My main concern is that NXXI is not a pharmaceutical company in the classical sense and selenium yeast is not a patented drug.

A lot of companies are supplying selenium yeast so even though I am sure the news today will benefit NXXI the effect might not be as large as the initial reaction to the news seems to indicate. That is probably why the stock fell back. People who are more familiar with the company saw a good chance to sell.

However your entrance point might be attractive.

The 3 sec. is over and I could be very wrong. I will have a deeper look but this thread is not for deep thoughts  ;)

Thanks a lot for your view on NXXI Michael, I really should keep away from biotech/pharmaceutical companies, since they require a different level of expertise or method.

But still, they seem as such an important part of the market that I really need to learn how to study them. On another thread (one that allows for deeper thoughts ;D), I'll ask for your help about developing a method to cover biotech stocks.

Let's see how the stock plays out until the end of the session, not selling today anyway, as I'm not looking to make any day trades (because I don't like it and because of that stupid pattern day trader rule).

Again, thanks a lot for your help Michael :)

NTMD 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5463658420673879537&hl=en

NTMD is a biotech stock, so I urge you not to pay much attention to what I say about it. The chart looks cool, above the 50 days SMA now, and I don't know anything more about it.

Good luck :)

HOLL 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-6250655569375081562&hl=en

HOLL isn't interesting from a technical standpoint, but perhaps it can be from a fundamental one. Yet, I couldn't see its attractiveness on this 3 minute look.

I don't know why you like it, but good luck :)

ESLR 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-3635613112452182751&hl=en

Nice technical breakout today, but after all this short term interest on alternative energy passes, fundamentals says it will break down to new lows below $7.

ESLR looks overvalued now.

ARSC.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=120538561280720368&hl=en

This is a tiny company with lousy fundamentals, losing more than its market cap each quarter. When today's excitement about alternative energy plays goes away, I guess ARSC.OB will just lay down and die, unfortunately.

GSCT.OB 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=5245107939911057075&hl=en

It's a pity the balance sheet is so weak (negative total equity of ($5 M)), because the income statement shows an improving picture, especially over the third quarter. Technicals also look strong over the short term.

I'm not buying, but it's one of the "best" OTCBB traded stocks we've seen today (still, extremely risky).

Ok, my computer is running really slow now, so no time to cover ATVE.OB, IMOS and CBLI, so please be kind and request them tomorrow again, ok? Thanks.

Still, not a bad day today, as I've taken a first look at 20 new stocks: OPBL.OB, NENG, DSTI, UMC, AMEP.OB, NXXI, DENN, CPE, XNL, NTMD, TGC, GSHF.OB, HOLL, ESLR, GSEG.OB, ARSC.OB, TRMM, HSBC.OB, CPE and GSCT.OB.

Not so good on the trading front today, but I knew days like this would come, they're inevitable ::)

I'll open the board again until 4:15 pm ET to see if there are any final comments.

No final comments, all right. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) was still up 3.38% on the day, could be worse ;D

Have a great evening, see you tomorrow :)