Good morning :)
The first thing I'm going to do today is to clean up the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) at or around the open.
- HGR I'm going to sell because it's not on fire anymore.
- NXXI I'm going to sell because this was a trading mistake (it doesn't matter if it goes up or down today). I bought it because of news without being able to assess the impact of that news. Also, financials look weak, as the company has been diluting shareholders value and it has preferred convertible shares issued. Also, the chart shows a bearish candlestick.
- XNL I'm going to sell because this was a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of trade, and the news is out, with President Bush delivering his speech to Congress yesterday. Unfortunately the speech was widely anticipated so probably the reaction to the news will be negative.
I feel that yesterday I was eager to buy stocks, although we were not finding any good ones (or I wasn't picking the right ones from your suggestions). I need to correct course and clean this mess up.
Still, I have 20% or so profit in just 3 trading days, probably it is time to settle down and assimilate the short term gains.
Anyway, although I'm not in a buying mood today, I'll be here all day covering your suggestions with 3 minute videos and written analysis, we never know if something bombastic won't show up ;)
RFMD is looking bombasticish :)
TRCR is flying!
Ok, I took a 2.85% loss on XNL and a 4.41% loss on NXXI. Still holding HGR. (check the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php))
Take both profits and losses fast. But take small losses and big profits is the name of the game here.
Let's start reviewing those suggestions, thanks :)
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 09:30:32 AM
RFMD is looking bombasticish :)
RFMD opened with a big gap up and is already somewhat below the open, what's your reasoning?
I'll make a 3 minute look anyway ... thanks.
CTEL after consolidation is taking off again
Just noticed the volume spike- looks like some support at 7.28 and 7.11 risky for now though- HGR getting some volume now-NTMD still going, just passed through HOD
David, I noticed our 3SOF chat is gone, why not install it back, it would imo be usefull for what you're doing here and it would only improve the interaction between our members! In the past I spent many days on the chat here with Saffeysite, Tirebld, fous, Calven and many others, I kind of miss it ... ::)
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 10:00:14 AM
Just noticed the volume spike- looks like some support at 7.28 and 7.11 risky for now though- HGR getting some volume now-NTMD still going, just passed through HOD
I agree boatguy, results were out on RFMD and I have an hard time analyzing them. They look stellar, but guidance for the next quarters are not so hot. Technically the stock is facing resistance, I'm not a fan.
Just made a quick video on the technicals:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=781233401509648437&hl=en
PACT
A LOT OF GOOD NEWS LATELY!!!
INSM taking off maybe approval in europe...rumor?.....breaking resistance
abtg.ob
Quote from: jlong on January 24, 2007, 10:19:45 AM
INSM taking off maybe approval in europe...rumor?.....breaking resistance
I don't like the long term prospects of that stock anymore, here's my last take on it, written on December the 5th, 2006:
«That legal action from Genentech and Tercica was always a cloud on INSM. If that issue gets out of the way, hopefully to the better for Insmed, it is a positive development.
The 66% rally in November was discounting that possibility, not yet confirmed (hence the recent decline).
If we get good news, probably the stock will trade around $2 again. If the news is negative it will tank hard, probably 15 or 20% in one day.
It is essential that the court ruling turns out positive for INSM, but it doesn't solve other problems, like the $158 M market cap without relevant revenues and the constant need to make private placements (well, not soon, as their balance sheet is strong now).
My biggest concern is the market size of iPlex. When I first bought the stock I thought it was much larger. I thought the drug was to make small children grow more, so nobody would be less than 150 cm tall when an adult (I know you don't use the metric system, but I don't know your system). Anyway, on my limited information I expected iPlex to help short children grow more, but no, after all it is just for a small number of children that suffer of Severe Primary IGFD. I remember there were just 20 or 30 thousand children with the disease in the US.
With the current information I don't see a big potential on the stock, but good luck for everybody holding :)»
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=29597;image)
David, I noticed you use alphatrade. I like the fundamental and technical analysis. What alphatrade platform do you reccomend for the average investor? There different options are rather confusing and can get expensive.
TRCR
TRCR 3 minute look:
Great results, but the stock opened up more than 30%, up 40% now, the trailing earnings multiple is about 32, I don't see much opportunity now and the risk of a short term retraction from current very overbought levels is high.
Wow, while I was writing it went up top 50% plus :o I hope you have it mbaugh !
But I still see it with a low reward/risk ratio here.
Thanks :)
Quote from: Se7en on January 24, 2007, 10:08:24 AM
David, I noticed our 3SOF chat is gone, why not install it back, it would imo be usefull for what you're doing here and it would only improve the interaction between our members! In the past I spent many days on the chat here with Saffeysite, Tirebld, fous, Calven and many others, I kind of miss it ... ::)
Yes, but it isn't possible to insert a chart or a video on the chat. Anyway, I'll talk to Ramsburg for him to put the 3 Stocks chat back up.
Thanks for the suggestion :)
HGR wasn't on fire, but perhaps it is getting (http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame). I'm going to hold it some more time.
Listen, I'm in need of a coffee so I'll be out for an hour or so, but if you please leave your suggestions or analysis here, that when I come back (hopefully more awake) I'll make a quick analysis on them.
looks like EGHT is on fire!
eght looking great. soxguy
I hate when I miss these upticks! >:(
CNLG is on fire but maybe a little too hot now >:D
Im in CNLG ksflica, looks hot!
IMOS please.
Today
MWIS.ob
is definitely on fire 0.10 --> +42%
but where is the volume???
Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 24, 2007, 10:29:26 AM
David, I noticed you use alphatrade. I like the fundamental and technical analysis. What alphatrade platform do you reccomend for the average investor? There different options are rather confusing and can get expensive.
Hi prodigykid6 :)
Yes, I use Alphatrade's service. My package is the basic E-Gate service + Fundamentals. It all costs about $40/month ($35 for e-gate + $5 for fundamentals). I think it's worth it ;)
I also think www.3stocksonfire.org should do an advertising deal with AlphaTrade ;D
I never could get the chat to work right on 3 sof- I have several chats I trade on though and the way I see it the more eyes looking for runners the better.
Chat running beside this board would be a plus.
Quote from: healey on January 24, 2007, 09:55:07 AM
CTEL after consolidation is taking off again
Today I'll be writing because this computer isn't able to handle those videos properly. I need to buy a new one, I'll do it after the close.
Yes, CTEL is bouncing after that 59% correction from the $7.10 high, set just just 7 days ago :o. One thing I don't like on this chart is that the stock opened with a gap up, there's a gap opened between $3.05 and $3.22. It may come down to close that gap as the consolidation continues.
Let me check the news that made that huge run on January the 11th:
• City Telecom - 'bbAid' Launched to Support Emergency Broadband Needs for Hong Kong (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070107/lnsu001.html?.v=21)
PR Newswire (Sun, Jan 7)
Actually this news was just the start, but it still took two days for the surge in the trading volume and price.
I think the consolidation isn't over yet, it may come down to close the morning's gap up, this is a $93 M market cap company, losing about $3 M a quarter.
Quote from: freimuch on January 24, 2007, 10:17:04 AM
PACT
A LOT OF GOOD NEWS LATELY!!!
Yeah, perhaps there are good news, but the stock is still stuck in a descending channel as you can see on the chart below, and volume today is quite weak at just 130,000 shares, so not on fire today !
Listen, I want to buy something on fire today, because the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) is 71% cash and I can't have it that way to perform. So I'll make just quick technical assessments on these ones that aren't on fire today.
Quote from: tokyopua on January 24, 2007, 10:23:19 AM
abtg.ob
Nah tokyo, look at that gap at the open and the descending resistance on the chart below. Also, volume in $ terms is just about $500,000, so not on fire, despite being up 15% or so.
ATVE is still looking good here. Nice rounding bottom.
Quote from: Se7en on January 24, 2007, 11:02:28 AM
looks like EGHT is on fire!
EGHT, yes, I love the revenue trend and business model of that company (VOIP player). It is the living prove that one shouldn't use technical stop losses when considering an investment.
Yes, on fire today but there's a lot of overhead resistance here (notice the volume it had when it spiked to $1.67), so I'll pass it today, but I see a lot of long term potential on that stock.
Thanks, let's have another !
Hello Dave!! Keep the nice work!!!
Please take a look to RMKR.
Thanks :D
I got CNLG at 3.54, would have had it at 3.43 but Etrade wouldnt trade it, so I had to spend time to log into my Bank of America account and buy it with that >:(.
I dont know if it can do it, but if this breaks 5.08 today it can really fly (at 4.11 now, resistances at 4.2 and 4.45 in the meantime).
SFP might take off if it clears 3$ volume increasing-
HGR going through 9$ :)
TAKE A LOOK AT TRMM . Any comments on MIND?
Quote from: kslifka on January 24, 2007, 11:19:42 AM
CNLG is on fire but maybe a little too hot now >:D
Gee, this isn't the first time CNLG makes one of these ! Unfortunately the last time it all ended in tears for late buyers.
I see it is just a $7.65 M market cap company, hence its ability to run so high in such a short period of time. I see their balance sheet looks healthy, with $2.5 M in cash and just $140 K in short term debt, so I don't fear short term dilution.
Revenues so far in 2006 are just $420 K, so kind of incipient, but at least they're not losing millions, just a ($710 K) in Q3.
Let's check the news that made it run the last time and today's news, to see if they are relevant enough:
For the first spike, there was nothing out, just the speculator's and day traders fever:
«Shares of Conolog Corp., which makes equipment for communications devices, nearly tripled on unusually heavy volume with no apparent news. The company didn't issue any comment or file documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and no analysts cover the company.
Nonetheless, the stock grew to $3.67 from Friday's close of $1.31. By noon, investors had traded almost 1.9 million shares, versus daily trading average of 20,000 shares.»
And today we have the following:
• Conolog Announces Final Approval for its CM-100 DIRECT SUBSTATION System; Deliveries Scheduled for Third Quarter (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070124/clw041.html?.v=70)
PR Newswire (Wed 10:42am)
The press release has no details or dollar estimates. I'm afraid people that were stuck with this stock on the previous spike will provide some resistance to the advance. There's no fundamental substance, at least not enough, the way I see it, to make it run much higher, and the risk of falling back down is relevant.
Anyway, good luck tokyopua and all the fast runners holding it :)
Quote from: bjc on January 24, 2007, 11:28:36 AM
IMOS please.
Hi bjc, thanks for the suggestion. I know IMOS more or less, it is a direct competitor of AMKR and I prefer AMKR. (in fact, AMKR is up 4% today, IMOS just 0.7%).
Anyway, since IMOS is not on fire today, I guess you're looking for more of a fundamental analysis on the stock, right? Tomorrow I'll hopefully have that new computer up and running, so I'll make a fundamental video on IMOS, how's that sound? (just remind me of it tomorrow, thanks).
Anyway, the short term chart looks great, with that golden cross and the ascending trend, good luck on IMOS !
Yes, MWIS.OB is up nicely today, 48% or so to $0.104, but I see resistance coming at $0.12 and volume in $ terms is less than $50,000 ... also, look at the bid/ask spread of more than 10%, just forget it for short term speculation.
MEAD getting some volume-cleared 2.8-
got MEAD @ 2.47
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8729.msg85584#new
Quote from: kslifka on January 24, 2007, 12:19:58 PM
ATVE is still looking good here. Nice rounding bottom.
You're right, looking good today, but volume is just about $200 K, if this thing dries nobody will want my shares (at least not at current prices). Also, the medium and long term trend is bearish, so there's overhead resistance, as shown by the 200 days simple moving average (blue on chart).
But thanks :)
Quote from: nica33 on January 24, 2007, 12:20:34 PM
Hello Dave!! Keep the nice work!!!
Please take a look to RMKR.
Thanks :D
Thanks nica33, I will !
Rainmaker? Suggestive name and chart :) ... actually this is the first time I see this stock, let me just make a quick fundamental review: market cap is $123 M, 2005 sales of $32 M, no revenue trend (so, no predictable growth), $48.15 M revs expected for 2006, $62 M for 2007 ... so forward revenue multiple is 1.98, compared to the industry average of 1.28.
Forward earnings multiple is 33, the industry average is 24.
So at first sight I don't see the value, but of course it can be hidden.
Technically not on fire today, but the short term chart certainly looks bullish, not so sure about the medium/long term.
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 12:57:50 PM
MEAD getting some volume-cleared 2.8-
got MEAD @ 2.47
And now you're talking ;D
Ok, nice trade for you, congrats, but not on fire today, just 94,000 shares changing hands.
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 12:32:55 PM
SFP might take off if it clears 3$ volume increasing-
HGR going through 9$ :)
Yes, I wasn't even looking, HGR pushing through $9 with nice volume, on fire after all. I'm glad I hesitated on that sale at the open ;) (although, NXXI and XNL were very well sold - I think it is also interesting to check the reasoning on the first post of this thread, how it was weak for HGR and strong for NXXI and XNL, if you know what I mean).
So, SFP ... let's check that one out.
Well, nothing to see, just 170,900 shares traded, not enough volume to be considered a momentum stock, at least not today.
Also, take a look at that resistance level at $3, made with much more volume the last time it went there, I'm not sure it will be able to break that:
HGR looking better- might take some off at 9.9 area but will hold if it looks promising for the BIG move to15+ ;)
Quote from: RJT on January 24, 2007, 12:38:37 PM
TAKE A LOOK AT TRMM . Any comments on MIND?
Huge news out on TRMM today. They're selling their European unit for $92 M and the market cap is just $51.44 M. The problem is they have $178 M in long term debt, so all those $92 M are going to pay down the debt.
Recently they also sold their US Photocopier business to Skyview Capital and their Canadian ATM business.
The money is being used to pay down debt. It looks like they're selling the business, by parts, to pay the long term debt. I'm not sure what will be left will be of any value, much less of $50 M plus value. Probably there's a reason why they didn't sell the company as a whole, perhaps nobody wanted to buy it, because it was overvalued by the market.
So, running high today, but I have doubts about this not being just one day wonder on TRMM.
Perhaps it might be able to close that gap, at $5.01, but I fear these long term descending charts ... good luck :)
HGR triple top breakout ;D
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 01:28:15 PM
HGR looking better- might take some off at 9.9 area but will hold if it looks promising for the BIG move to15+ ;)
Yeah, looking strong. Wazzup with $9.9? Looks clean on your chart.
Ok people, although the market is up a lot today (by the way, in case you didn't notice it, we're in a bull market), I want to buy something that enters the eyes with that "can't miss" feeling, you know?
Not easy to pull it out, and sometimes what looks like "can't miss", will indeed miss. There are several stocks that I like and are up nicely today on good volume, but I don't want to mess with those because they already belong to the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), that is, the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium Service medium/long term portfolio, which is up 246% since inception on April 2005 (got to make some publicity on that Premium service (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php) ;))
Let's see what we have left, I'm also going to make a tour through some special momentum filters to see if I find anything that I like.
Thanks for your participation !
White knuckled it there for a bit as it fell, CNLG just hit .5 above my buy point so I sold, could still go higher but I wont complain ;)
I'm chicken Dave and take some profit when I can :)
Quote from: tokyopua on January 24, 2007, 01:52:36 PM
White knuckled it there for a bit as it fell, CNLG just hit .5 above my buy point so I sold, could still go higher but I wont complain ;)
Good job, congrats Tokyo :)
I know you don't want Pinks but I really want to know your opinion on DOVP. It broke through short term resistance today on pretty solid volume and big white candle. Sitting at highs of the day. Will it have more room to run?
Quote from: dwest718 on January 24, 2007, 02:26:14 PM
I know you don't want Pinks but I really want to know your opinion on DOVP. It broke through short term resistance today on pretty solid volume and big white candle. Sitting at highs of the day. Will it have more room to run?
My problem with pinks is that I don't have either technical or fundamental information. My Metastock database service doesn't cover pinks, and my fundamental data service also does not cover pinks.
For example, you're talking about DOVP. What's the market cap of that company?
I don't know, where to find the information?
I could never buy a stock without knowing the market cap, at least that. That's like buying a product without knowing the price. Of course, the share price doesn't tell you how much you're paying, only the market cap does.
Unless you're a pure technical player (which I ain't), it's very hard to be interested in any PK due to lack of information.
Therefore I don't have an opinion on DOVP.
What do you think of AUY david?
Ok, here's how it goes, I'm playing with little money here and I don't want it to be parked.
The best momentum stock covered today, and that I'm seeing on pages and pages of stocks, is TRMM.
Therefore I just bought 33.33% of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) capital in TRMM at $3.17.
I think it has the potential to gap up tomorrow.
OPMR on fire
Watch only , not a recomendation. ;)
Sidotti buy Rumor?
I was encouraged to see that they sold their US Photocopier business for $9.2 million, the Canadian ATM business for CDN$14.75 million and now the ATM business in the United Kingdom and Germany for $92.6 million.
Let's see how this plays out until the end of the session and at the open tomorrow, I guess people will be impressed by the $92 M for the European business.
I wouldnt buy it up here, but percentage wise the most on fire stock today I have seen is PLMA, no news that I saw, 166% ::).
I joined you on TRMM David at the same entry price, looks like probably some others here have too and we gave it a little jump start ;)
NTMD pulling back hard
Quote from: tokyopua on January 24, 2007, 03:18:19 PM
I wouldnt buy it up here, but percentage wise the most on fire stock today I have seen is PLMA, no news that I saw, 166% ::).
I joined you on TRMM David at the same entry price, looks like probably some others here have too and we gave it a little jump start ;)
Nah, not us, actually, after I posted the buy, the stock went down 1 - 2% ... it was below my buying price for 5 or 10 minutes, I guess. But now TRMM is rocketing higher towards the close, up 52% :o
PLMA? You need to pay attention to volume in dollar terms tokyo, look at it, just $230 K changing hands today, can't be considered a true momentum play, just some kids playing in the backyard ;D
Pull those stops on TRMM!!
Quote from: David Randolph on January 24, 2007, 03:25:34 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on January 24, 2007, 03:18:19 PM
I wouldnt buy it up here, but percentage wise the most on fire stock today I have seen is PLMA, no news that I saw, 166% ::).
I joined you on TRMM David at the same entry price, looks like probably some others here have too and we gave it a little jump start ;)
Nah, not us, actually, after I posted the buy, the stock went down 1 - 2% ... it was below my buying price for 5 or 10 minutes, I guess. But now TRMM is rocketing higher towards the close, up 52% :o
PLMA? You need to pay attention to volume in dollar terms tokyo, look at it, just $230 K changing hands today, can't be considered a true momentum play, just some kids playing in the backyard ;D
I was trying to stress the words
percentage wise in what I wrote above, as I know I would not have bought it as a real on fire stock due to the volume, etc. Just pointing it out as a curiousity, but actually it does beg the point that all of us should try to confine our suggestions to only stocks with volume so as not to take up your bandwidth. I will only point out such stocks from now on (unless I make a mistake, lol) ;)
Tokyopua, Those of us that have been around awhile know when you give a heads up it is just that!!
Keep it up ;D Your opinion is valued here!
Percentage is how I track too, gotta get a 100K trades before you can get a million.
Quote from: nullzero on January 24, 2007, 02:53:47 PM
What do you think of AUY david?
I don't understand it very well ... expectations are for an astounding revenue and EPS increase for 2007. I wonder why is that, probably acquisitions?
But still, a $3.5 B market cap company, huge already, especially when compared to 2006 numbers, valuation looks stratospheric.
Still, looks like it is trying to breakout from a short term descending resistance, good luck, and if you want, add some info :)
Thanks boatguy :)
I guess I will add another heads up then since its a bit late to buy today, but OPBL.OB was on fire today and since yesterday, with buying pressure that was sustained throuhgout the day. The chart looks too parabolic for my tastes and the stock doesnt have much history, but its rising on a 19% buyout from NYMEX. Nice financials, at least to my untrained eye, nice accelerating income growth...
More info for TRMM, I just put Michael on the job and he found out that:
- UK + Canada sales were 1/3 of total.
- UK + Canada business was sold for about $105 M
- So, we can extrapolate total assets worth $315 M
- LT debt is $178 M
- Net Asset Value = $127 M
- 17.2 million shares outstanding, so market cap now $55.9 M.
- According to these calculus TRMM should run up to $7.40 to be fairly valued.
Now spam the hell out of these calculus on Yahoo and more if you can, we want a big gap up at tomorrow's open (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)
I was kidding, don't worry about that, perhaps I'll write an article on TRMM later.
I'm going dinner now, will close this board to new posts until tomorrow, see ya :D
Quote from: David Randolph on January 24, 2007, 04:00:52 PM
More info for TRMM, I just put Michael on the job and he found out that:
- UK + Canada sales were 1/3 of total.
- UK + Canada business was sold for about $105 M
- So, we can extrapolate total assets worth $315 M
- LT debt is $178 M
- Net Asset Value = $127 M
- 17.2 million shares outstanding, so market cap now $55.9 M.
- According to these calculus TRMM should run up to $7.40 to be fairly valued.
Now spam the hell out of these calculus on Yahoo and more if you can, we want a big gap up at tomorrow's open (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)
Now that's what I like to hear ;D