3SOF

Good morning :)

Let's cover some more of your suggestions and look for stocks on fire.

I'm not planning to sell any of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings for now, which are SILC, CPNE.OB and GOAM.

Thanks for your participation :)

GM David,could you have a look at pact ? It seems to be getting a lot of interest in the last couple days on no news.

Be carefull with GOAM

SUF - Up another 5% this AM

HOLX

LEV is being bought and making a nice run.

CPNE- I think will start running very soon

Quote from: cramercramer on January 31, 2007, 09:34:22 AM
Be carefull with GOAM

Sure, I'll be careful, thanks for the advice cramercramer :)

Quote from: 2bun on January 31, 2007, 09:33:46 AM
GM David,could you have a look at pact ? It seems to be getting a lot of interest in the last couple days on no news.

PACT 3 minute look:

(video taking a very looonnnggg time to upload. I'll put it here when ready)

I generally like it, but not tremendously attractive. Technically it needs to surpass the $7.19 short term resistance level and the descending trendline on the chart below, currently at $7.47.

Well, at $7.29 now, great !

Good luck :)

Thank you for the JOB comment  yesterday.Bot $2.13 and going to hold

Watching NXI (mining) and EFSE (health products).  Any thoughts?

Tbyh.ob is finally on fire

Hi, David

Any comment on Zica, thanks

Quote from: KCScott on January 31, 2007, 09:36:42 AM
SUF - Up another 5% this AM

Unfortunately I'm recording videos but Google Video is not uploading them >:(

So I'm going to write.

Yes, SUF up a lot yesterday and today, but technically this movement looks like a rebound in a bearish medium term trend, and fundamentally it is a $300 M plus market cap company with zero revenues, huge losses every quarter and a weak balance sheet, so I would avoid it.

Anyway, awesome move over the latest two days, congrats KCScott, nice to see you :)

Quote from: cramercramer on January 31, 2007, 10:07:27 AM
Thank you for the JOB comment  yesterday.Bot $2.13 and going to hold

You're welcome. You're already 7% ahead on that trade, congrats.

JOB has attractive fundamentals, it's a pity the average low volume traded, so, not on fire, but probably a nice long term investment.

Quote from: nullzero on January 31, 2007, 09:45:49 AM
HOLX

Yes nullzero, HOLX is on fire today and breaking out of an ascending triangle pattern, but it is a $2.7 B market cap company already, what about your promise?

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 10:07:56 AM
Watching NXI (mining) and EFSE (health products).  Any thoughts?

EFSE, are you sure that's the symbol Aim4theFence? Thanks :)

I know  :'(, I couldnt help it the chart looked good and fundamentals were nice with the earnings news. I figured you had 3 stocks held for the picks, so I would recommend one that has a good chance of running higher. Here is a micro cap that looks attractive XIDE.

OMCL on fire!

XIDE is on fire again today  ;D

Good Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?
And can someone explain what is going on with EVCC?  
Is it playable on this latest pullback?  I have heard estimates that it will go to the high teens at least (??)

Quote from: oakhedge on January 31, 2007, 09:53:49 AM
LEV is being bought and making a nice run.

Yes, being bought by BBC at $14.41 a share (a transaction that will take months to close), currently trading at $14.04, so there's no short term profit opportunity:

«Based on BFC's closing stock price of $6.35 on January 30, 2007, the transaction values each share of Levitt's Class A Common Stock at $14.41, which represents an approximate 32% premium over market on that date.»

But it goes to show that home builders are cheap.

David,

My apologies.  EFSF (Efood Services).

Aim

Quote from: TraderStar on January 31, 2007, 10:44:08 AM
Good Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?
And can someone explain what is going on with EVCC? 
Is it playable on this latest pullback?  I have heard estimates that it will go to the high teens at least (??)

Sure, I'll take a look at FRPT. I like it since it was a $5 stock, as la-onda, a premium member that owns the stock, knows.

EVCC? Here's my last comment on it, I think it will go down to less than $1:

«

Quote from: supergeek on January 29, 2007, 03:20:44 PM
Look out below, here comes EVCC, i bailed all my remaining shares when i saw it crumbling. Wish i knew enough to short. all in all, best trade ever.

Gee, I'm glad you got out and made an incredible trade on the long side, down 33% as we speak, after being up more than 30% on the day :o

The people that bought high and were not quick or disciplined enough to get out fast are burning now. Well, I guess they got what they deserved, by not paying any attention to the fundamentals of what they were buying.

Anyway, this goes to show that everything is possible in the stock market, even a worthless piece of paper going to a value of $300 M.

This is the classic pump and dump made by professionals. If you want to sell a big quantity of paper to the public, first make the stock rise as high as you can with a lot of transactions (even if they are made with you buying and selling to yourself using several accounts, to create a market), and then dump on the way down. I bet people will be attracted to this stock all the way down to below $1.

If I were you supergeek, I would buy flowers for your mom and never, ever, touch this stock again. It's a devil's stock >:D»

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=32455;image)

David! What do you think about YPNT? Nice chart

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 10:07:56 AM
Watching NXI (mining) and EFSE (health products).  Any thoughts?

I'm sorry, but NXI is one of the most boring stocks I've ever looked at. Just 4,400 shares traded today. Almost no movement in 5 years of history.

Why are you watching it? I would rather watch a black and white european movie from the 1960's ;D

Quote from: Fré on January 31, 2007, 10:10:08 AM
Tbyh.ob is finally on fire

Unfortunately not today Fré, down 6.5% with just $39 K or so traded.

Market cap of $90 M, nice revenue trends and profitable, about $0.3 EPS estimate for 2006, so the earnings multiple is about 9.67. It looks attractive.

Good luck :)

PTN on fire

DPFD - Merger with Chinese company!

My long ZIXI is start running like crazy,but don't see any news

Quote from: nica33 on January 31, 2007, 10:42:18 AM
XIDE is on fire again today  ;D

Yes, XIDE, great stock, I as inclined to buy it yesterday all session but then opted for CPNE.OB and GOAM. XIDE is doing better than my two choices, but, well, one can't win them all.

Here's my take on XIDE from yesterday and the updated chart:

«

Quote from: nica33 on January 30, 2007, 10:34:46 AM
XIDE

Hi nica33, XIDE has an awesome long and short term chart :o Definitely on fire today.

Let me make some fundamental tests:

1) Market cap $340 M (a bit large for what we're looking here, but still acceptable);
2) Incredible revenue numbers of about $2.79 B for 2006. Price to Sales Ratio of about 0.12;
3) Still losing more than $30 M a quarter for the past 3 quarters;
4) No short term liquidity problems;

So, the problem with XIDE is that they had just one profitable quarter since they're a publicly traded company, and that was the first, Q2 2004. But still, the Price to Sales Ratio is just 0.12 and the industry average is 1.98.

The market is telling us the company will approach profitability (or at least lose less, soon), and if it starts closing that revenue multiple gap to its industry average, it can be a multi bagger (but that's of course a long shot).

Up 8.5% as we speak ... not bad, my short term outlook is positive.»

Hi David!  I'm not sure.  I guess you analyzed TGX.  Which is the link?

Thanks!

zixi on fire  ZIXI  ZIXI ZIXI

Quote from: nica33 on January 31, 2007, 11:16:57 AM
Hi David!  I'm not sure.  I guess you analyzed TGX.  Which is the link?

Thanks!

No I didn't, someone requested it yesterday but there was no time. I'll try to do it today, thanks for the suggestion :)

RMIX concrete play, on fire and breakout

My bad, David.  I really need to read before I send the post.  Bad fingers.  It was not NXI (sorry I wasted your time).  It was NXG mining.  Low in Feb of last year around $1.92 and up to $4.82 in May of last year.  Made a nice move lately and hanging around $3.75-$3.79 right now. 

Aim

Quote from: pompano on January 31, 2007, 11:19:41 AM
zixi on fire  ZIXI  ZIXI ZIXI

Absolutely on fire pompano :o

But fundamentally I dislike it, losing more than it sells for the past 5 quarters. Accumulated deficit of $303 M :o

The market potential of their business model is so thin than I don't know how they will be able to survive without massive restructuring. I expect the company to dilute shareholder's value whenever there's a rally.

Today's news isn't significant enough in my opinion, and it doesn't provide details.

I would avoid ZIXI, but good luck :)

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 11:29:55 AM
My bad, David.  I really need to read before I send the post.  Bad fingers.  It was not NXI (sorry I wasted your time).  It was NXG mining.  Low in Feb of last year around $1.92 and up to $4.82 in May of last year.  Made a nice move lately and hanging around $3.75-$3.79 right now. 

Aim

No problem Aim, there's time. With time we'll probably cover them all.

Look how I'm cool, going for lunch now, will be back in half an hour 8)

ZIXI waiting a patents,can triple in few month /I think/

soen.ob
breakout from bottom with good volume!

David, how bout OBCI? It was traded at high volume about two weeks ago but it is on the stage of consolidation.

BTW, I have a suggestion for the open market thread, is it possible that you have a summary of stock name at end of each day for the stock you analyzed? I think it might good for us to check your analysis in case we miss it.

Thanks

winner

Quote from: winner919 on January 31, 2007, 11:47:37 AM
David, how bout OBCI? It was traded at high volume about two weeks ago but it is on the stage of consolidation.

BTW, I have a suggestion for the open market thread, is it possible that you have a summary of stock name at end of each day for the stock you analyzed? I think it might good for us to check your analysis in case we miss it.

Thanks

winner

I'll take a look at OBCI today if I have time, 9 stocks in front of OBCI.

Good idea, probably I'll create a new thread with the ticker symbol and links to all stocks already covered, thanks :) (I'll do it over the weekend)

I guess today will be the first losing day of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), going down 2.15% as I write, with SILC down 2.57%, CPNE.OB down 4.7% and GOAM up 1%.

Anyway, I'm not planning to sell any of these 3 today ... but I'll keep covering, with ease, the suggestions you bring me, perhaps I'll pick them on another day (I don't mind if it has to be higher, not at all), thanks for your participation.

XIDE going to 10$ ;D

Wow, thanks for the info on EVCC .. I have traded it 3 times with profit but missed the big jump from 4 to 7.  Thanks to your advice, I took 1/2 off today (got in yesterday near the low) and will put a tight stop on the rest just in case it makes one last jump :)

I look forward to your info on FRPT, that one looks like it has good fundies and potential.  Thanks to la-onda on another board, I also have traded it since 6. I'd like to get in again on this pullback, but not sure if it might not want to first fill its gap around 16.  thanks :)

Quote from: wzhang on January 31, 2007, 10:11:53 AM
Hi, David

Any comment on Zica, thanks

After a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its previous rally, ZICA is attempting to start a move to retest those highs at $2.85.

Let's see what fundamental analysis says about the stock:

- Technology company in the wireless space with $95 M of market cap;
- Balance sheet is weak with cash levels declining and a current ratio of just 1.4;
- Revenue trends don't show any growth;
- Losing about $2.8 M a quarter;
- The stock was up a lot in December 22 and 23, due to the following news:

• Zi Corporation Launches Qix with T-Mobile in the UK (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061222/0197905.html)
Market Wire (Fri, Dec 22)

The press release doesn't provide any financial details. I don't think the news is enough to turn fundamental trends around, and ZICA will need to dilute shareholder's value due to short term liquidity problems (their cash on hand isn't enough to sustain the losses of just one quarter, so they will sell shares through a PIPE placement or in the open market).

Therefore, my outlook on ZICA is unfortunately negative.

XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

Quote from: nullzero on January 31, 2007, 10:41:34 AM
OMCL on fire!

Yep, OMCL breaking out to a new 52 week high today, let me just see the market cap on this one ... $600 M, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0).

On this thread you called XIDE a micro cap, and that is a $413 M market cap. I don't consider that to be a micro cap.

You're really not used to play small caps, are you nullzero? Is that because you prefer stocks which you can play using margin?

Thanks :)

By the way, let me see what we have from the fundamentals on OMCL:

- $600 M market cap servicing health care providers;
- Balance sheet is ok;
- Nice revenue trend. Revenue multiple is about 4, and just 1.58 for the industry average;
- Forward earnings multiple is 29, compared to the industry average of 22 (trailing earnings here);
- Not all that much interesting, after all, it is a widely followed stock.

Thanks anyway, keep them coming :)

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 31, 2007, 12:24:03 PM
XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

Totally different prodigykid6. XIDE is trading at a fraction of multi billion dollar revenues, EVCC went as high as $300 M market cap with zero revenues.

EVCC is a pump and dump scheme. XIDE is a turnaround story. EVCC will go down to pennies. XIDE will go up, maybe several bags.

Anyway, good luck with your short term trading, but shorting is a losers game over the long term. Even more so when you go out there and short a stock just because it has been up a lot, going against the trend, your best friend in the market place. 

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 31, 2007, 12:24:03 PM
XIDE looks like another EVCC...seems like its full of hot air. I'm going to short it and see what happens over night.

Good Luck with this short ;)

QuoteGood Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?

I was a big fan of FRPT.OB when it was trading around $5 and it was still an OTCBB traded stock. I wrote an article on it called: "FRPT: a billion dollar company?» when it was a less than $300 M market cap company (it was on a website that now is not working right, www.otcbbcoverage.com, Ramsburg needs to fix it to access those articles).

Now it is a $1.22 B market cap, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0).

Anyway, in just a quick fundamental review, I really don't like it now, losing revenue momentum and barely profitable.

But good luck :)

Dave, what is your thought for JADE, down 5 %.  All chinese stocks are awful today (China bubble concerns).  Could be an oportunity to buy it???

Thanks!

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 10:49:01 AM
David,

My apologies.  EFSF (Efood Services).

Aim

Well, not on fire today, since it is down 8.5%. The long term trend on the chart below is bearish. Let's see what the fundamentals say:

- Market cap is $54 M and just 1 employee ???;
- Revenues are incipient, just $197 K in Q3 2006. Net Income is negative by an average of more than $1 M a quarter;
- I guess I could find even more overvalued stocks, but it would be somewhat hard.

Unfortunately my outlook on EFSF.OB is negative, can be wrong though, as anything can happen in the market and fundamentals keep changing, good luck :)

hello david...........

take a look at "PLRO", i can´t find any income statement, but i think it´s a very intersting stock..........................

good work...........................


marlene

Quote from: David Randolph on January 31, 2007, 12:56:00 PM

QuoteGood Morning .. anyone looking at FRTP on this pullback?

I was a big fan of FRPT.OB when it was trading around $5 and it was still an OTCBB traded stock. I wrote an article on it called: "FRPT: a billion dollar company?» when it was a less than $300 M market cap company (it was on a website that now is not working right, www.otcbbcoverage.com, Ramsburg needs to fix it to access those articles).

Anyway, in just a quick fundamental review, I really don't like it now, losing revenue momentum and barely profitable.

Oh .. you're the one who wrote that article!  Actually otcbbcoverage website is still accessible but hardly anyone posts anymore.

Thanks for that info .. I have some small shares in FRPT on the pullback & will take profits or cut losses quickly.  On Yahoo boards, there is a lot of enthusiasm about it, but sounds like this is not a good longer term play.  I'm just hoping for a quick pop to the low 20's again :) ;)

Quote from: cramercramer on January 31, 2007, 10:50:46 AM
David! What do you think about YPNT? Nice chart

Well, just $100 K traded today, and the chart ... well, let's say I'm neutral from a technical standpoint.

Fundamentally speaking:

- $51 M market cap, cool business concept of online yellow pages, so it is a competitor to a stock I recently covered, which is LOCM (www.local.com);
- Nice balance sheet, $7 M in cash and current ratio of 4.5;
- No revenue growth over the last 3 years and lost $3 M in Q3 2006.

Overall, I think it's nothing special, but thanks for the suggestion :)

Quote from: TraderStar on January 31, 2007, 01:25:33 PM

Oh .. you're the one who wrote that article!  Actually otcbbcoverage website is still accessible but hardly anyone posts anymore.

Thanks for that info .. I have some small shares in FRPT on the pullback & will take profits or cut losses quickly.  On Yahoo boards, there is a lot of enthusiasm about it, but sounds like this is not a good longer term play.  I'm just hoping for a quick pop to the low 20's again :) ;)

Yes, www.otcbbcoverage.com is mine (and Ramsburg's), but that project is in standby now. I wrote that article under my real name, which is Cesar Borja, David Randolph is just a nick name (I told you I was a foreigner).

As for FRPT, I was surprised to look at their financials now, the Price to sales ratio is about 6 and the trailing PER is 200. Analysts expect revenues and earnings to grow a lot in 2007, but still, not enough to justify the current market cap of more than $1.2 B in my opinion.

Good luck on that pop :)

Quote from: David Randolph on January 31, 2007, 12:36:54 PM

Quote from: nullzero on January 31, 2007, 10:41:34 AM
OMCL on fire!

Yep, OMCL breaking out to a new 52 week high today, let me just see the market cap on this one ... $600 M, so above our maximum allowed level of $500 M market cap, as you can read on the FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0).

On this thread you called XIDE a micro cap, and that is a $413 M market cap. I don't consider that to be a micro cap.

You're really not used to play small caps, are you nullzero? Is that because you prefer stocks which you can play using margin?

Thanks :)

By the way, let me see what we have from the fundamentals on OMCL:

- $600 M market cap servicing health care providers;
- Balance sheet is ok;
- Nice revenue trend. Revenue multiple is about 4, and just 1.58 for the industry average;
- Forward earnings multiple is 29, compared to the industry average of 22 (trailing earnings here);
- Not all that much interesting, after all, it is a widely followed stock.

Thanks anyway, keep them coming :)

I usually dont trade many small caps. Sorry again David I need to read over the FAQ again. I usually play around with medium-large cap stocks I do use margin a lot. I thought it was 600 million cap but will make sure I pick only ones under 500million.

OTD on fire with news

Quote from: nica33 on January 31, 2007, 11:16:57 AM
Hi David!  I'm not sure.  I guess you analyzed TGX.  Which is the link?

Thanks!

TGX, what a run, certainly on fire(http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)

Some fundamental considerations:

- Market cap of $150 M, a Medical Appliances & Equipment company;
- Balance sheet: very strong !
- Revenue trend: positive and accelerating;
- EPS of $0.11 in Q4, going up from $0.05 in Q3. But that was because of a special tax gain of $1.8 M, otherwise EPS would have been $0.05, the same as in Q3.
- Annualize $0.05 EPS and get EPS of $0.20 for a full year. PER is about 24, and the industry average is 38.

TGX looks undervalued here, it can go up 60 or 70% more just to be valued in line with its industry. 

Just wanted to make a comment about GOAM. I've traded this stock many times and know its routine, but today is the first time I've seen it act pretty strange.   It seems as if it is being controlled to fill a larger order.  Just wanted to hear other opinions on it.  It needs to break 9.39 and I hope it does very soon!

Quote from: tokyopua on January 31, 2007, 11:23:10 AM
RMIX concrete play, on fire and breakout

Hi tokyo, yes, RMIX, nice bullish breakout today after building a 6 month base. Still below the 200 days moving average, so technically it might need more consolidation (I'm finding that is is hard to enter right in the beginning of trends, easier to play the middle of them).

Let's see what we have on the fundamental front:

- $268 M market cap, operating in the cement industry;
- Balance sheet so so, with $301 M in long term debt, but no short term liquidity problems;
- Guidance for 2007 is:

«Based on the current state of its business and backlog, the Company expects 2007 revenues to be in the range of $900 million and $950 million and earnings per diluted share to range between $0.54 and $0.60.»

The stock is trading at $7.93, so the forward earnings multiple is about 14. The industry trailing average earnings multiple is 15.

So I would say RMIX is more or less valued at average. But I like the sector.

Thanks :)

Hi David - Just wanted to say that this portfolio has been a great experience so far, and regardless of the outcome, I'll have learned a great deal from you.  It's becoming very obvious how important good fundamentals are at supporting these short term moves - in addition to the technical outllook.  Just watching EVCC yesterday emphasizes this point.

QuoteHi David - TGX posted a profit for 4Q today - 52 week high.  Balance sheet looks good with my quick glance...

In the past, I may have jumped on that stock blindly, but after looking at it's financials for just a couple minutes, I was able to make a decision and feel much more comfortable about the purchase (I was able to pick it up at around 4.18) - I probably should've waited for your look, but it just looked too good to pass up at the time.

Thanks again - Derek

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 11:29:55 AM
My bad, David.  I really need to read before I send the post.  Bad fingers.  It was not NXI (sorry I wasted your time).  It was NXG mining.  Low in Feb of last year around $1.92 and up to $4.82 in May of last year.  Made a nice move lately and hanging around $3.75-$3.79 right now. 

Aim

Technically NXG has been stuck in a trading range. It needs to breakout above the $3.94 - $4 resistance level to be considered technically bullish.

As for the fundamentals:

- Market cap is $808 M. Canadian copper & gold producer;
- Balance sheet is healthy, with $126 M in cash and $0 long term debt;
- Revenue trends are nice, despite the Q3 revenue and profit decline from Q2;
- Trailing earnings multiple is about 6, the industry average is 31, so it looks very cheap.

I wonder what's wrong with it ... I used to own a similar situation, which is TGB, and that company was kind of trying to deceive investors and reported a very weak quarter lately.

Let me open those SEC filings for NXG ... looking for convertible debentures or something like that ... ok, where are they? The company doesn't file forms 10 with the SEC, hence the under valuation. The same thing happens with IMOS.

I don't know what to think of this, but I've been seeing that the market really doesn't like when companies don't file those 10-K and 10-Q forms. I guess institutional investors refuse to buy shares of companies that don't respect those US rules.

I'll think it over and talk to Michael about this, will get back to NXG later.

Thanks :)

QuoteHi David - Just wanted to say that this portfolio has been a great experience so far, and regardless of the outcome, I'll have learned a great deal from you.  It's becoming very obvious how important good fundamentals are at supporting these short term moves - in addition to the technical outllook.  Just watching EVCC yesterday emphasizes this point.

Yes, I've been learning a lot too these past few days.

QuoteIn the past, I may have jumped on that stock blindly, but after looking at it's financials for just a couple minutes, I was able to make a decision and feel much more comfortable about the purchase (I was able to pick it up at around 4.18) - I probably should've waited for your look, but it just looked too good to pass up at the time.

Thanks again - Derek

Nah, you shouldn't wait, I may not be here tomorrow (I plan to be for a very long time, but nobody knows the future), and you want to be a good investor regardless of my support. So my advice is for you to learn as much as you can from mine and others experiences ... well, you know, I'm learning too, I feel like I know much more than I used to know, but also feel like I know little compared to what I need to know to be the investor that I want to be.

So, let's keep on learning from each other, we got to beat this game !

Dave, check the price for TRMM in the 3SOF closed trades.  Is it wrong?

SYNX looks interesting to me David,could you have a look at it ? Thanks

Quote from: ket1390 on January 31, 2007, 11:45:14 AM
soen.ob
breakout from bottom with good volume!

Pushing a bit above the 50 days SMA, but the medium term trend, given by the descending trendline on the semi-log scale chart below, is still bearish. A breakout happens when a resistance is broken on the upside, not when there's a small bounce from the lows, but I get your point.

Technically I still consider SOEN.OB as negative. Let's see what fundamental analysis says:

- Market cap of $58 M. "Solar EnerTech is a photovoltaic (PV) solar energy cell manufacturing enterprise based in Shanghai"
- No balance sheet problems, at least for now;
- $0 revenues since inception. Today there are news out of a deal grating $9.2 M in revenues for fiscal 2007. Still, forward revenue multiple is 6.3;
- Not all that much losses, just ($332 K) in Q3 2006. That could be considered good, but it can also be a sign that the company is really small, and perhaps $58 M market cap is too much for it.

I find these alternative energy plays hard to value. They're still a long shot and there's a lot of competition. They're like biotechnology plays. I guess 9 out of 10 will fail, but the 1 that gets it will be a big winner.

Not my way to play stocks, I like to go with the probabilities and bet on somewhat "sure" things, or at least things with revenues and profits supporting the valuation, not just ideas or remote possibilities.

Quote from: nica33 on January 31, 2007, 02:50:50 PM
Dave, check the price for TRMM in the 3SOF closed trades.  Is it wrong?

Yes, good eye nica33, both, the buying and the selling prices are wrong.

I bought TRMM at $3.17 and sold for a small loss at $3.11, not buy at $2.17 and sell at $2.11 as it was posted. I was probably in a hurry when I posted that. But fortunately it doesn't change the results, since it is always a 6 cent loss on 1900 shares.

Let me correct that ... voila, it's correct now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), thank you :)

I think I figured out why EVCC.OB was full of air. There is a website that reccomends stocks. This is a pump and dump type of website that has horrible analysis and just out to scam people. This messege group said buy EVCC.OB on the saturday the 27th. As you can see by the chart it ran well then crashed. They also reccomended XIDE the 27th and you can see the run. I think it will crash just like EVCC.OB but maybe not as hard. What do you think about this Dave?

http://www.pennystockanalysis.com/index.html
#2 EVCC.OB
#5 XIDE

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 31, 2007, 03:05:21 PM
I think I figured out why EVCC.OB was full of air. There is a website that reccomends stocks. This is a pump and dump type of website that has horrible analysis and just out to scam people. This messege group said buy EVCC.OB on the saturday the 27th. As you can see by the chart it ran well then crashed. They also reccomended XIDE the 27th and you can see the run. I think it will crash just like EVCC.OB but maybe not as hard. What do you think about this Dave?

http://www.pennystockanalysis.com/index.html
#2 EVCC.OB
#5 XIDE

Well, EVCC.OB is a two employee company with $0 in revenues. It lives from selling shares to the public, that's their business. 1 year ago they were into mining, because it was cool back then. Now they're at environmental services. They keep changing the business model, but never sold a dollar. Yet, people buying now are paying about $200 M for the company.

XIDE is a $380 M market cap company with 14,000 employees and $2.8 B in revenues over the latest 12 month period.

The fact that the same website covered the two companies doesn't make them equal, not even similar. They're of totally different leagues.

My take on XIDE is it can have a pullback, but nothing like EVCC had or will have. I think you get my point ... anyway, some people here are long XIDE, others like you are short, I don't know who will win the battle, but bulls have stronger hands if you ask me.

I don't know if you still have an ego. Fortunately I don't have one anymore, after taking so much beating from stocks and futures over the years, it is easy for me to know when I'm wrong and not to feel any embarrassment from that.

I lose so naturally as I win. My buying price is not an input in my decision making process. The market doesn't know where I bought or sold, it doesn't even know I exist, so, to be in tune with the market, I also don't care which price I buy or sell in terms of the outcome of that trade.

Thanks for this talk :)

thanks for the outlook dave, i just thought i would bring that to your attention. i thought i was on to something.   :-X

I would not want to be short XIDE as it passes through 7$

Good Luck with :D your trade

ENCY

Testing out a buy at $3.36 for a rebound/oversold play.

Well, today I wrote comments on: PACT, GOAM, SUF, HOLX, LEV, JOB, NXI, EFSE, TBYH.OB, ZICA, OMCL, FRPT, EVCC, EFSF.OB, YPNT.OB, XIDE, TGX, ZIXI, RMIX, NXG and SOEN.OB.

I couldn't cover OBCI, JADE (yes, I could buy it on a dip), PTN, DPFD.OB, PLRO, OTD and SYNX. If you're still interested, please request these again tomorrow.

I guess my daily limit is about 20. Not bad.

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) is down today, 1.8% as I write. On the 9th day, I couldn't win. Of course I expected this to happen.

Still, I feel it was a great day. Even better than the ones where I won. It is so natural for a man to be happy when he wins and sad when he loses, that, to live a happily normal life with my family, I contradict those feelings. I try to be at emotional equilibrium at all times.

After all, it was just another day of work.

I'll have dinner now, will come to close the board until tomorrow and post final results, thanks a lot for your participation :)

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) declined 1.53% to $21,912 today. Still up 46% from inception 9 trading sessions ago.

I remain very confident in the Portfolio's 3 holdings, SILC, CPNE.OB and GOAM.

See you tomorrow ;)