Good morning :)
Let's open this a bit earlier today so I can test if Google Video is working properly. Perhaps they got fed up with 3 Stocks because we're uploading too many videos (just kidding).
I've added a new Q&A to our FAQ section (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.msg84845#msg84845), which is the # 15:
Quote15 - Can I suggest stocks from any sector?
Yes, you can, but David doesn't like biotechnology, alternative energy or mining stocks with no operations. He welcomes everything else.
I figure that it is a waste of time to keep bringing up stocks from these sectors, because I never enjoy them. Of course, biotechnology is very important, alternative energy is very important, mining not all that much, but I feel it shouldn't be my money to finance their operations until they eventually start making some revenues and profits to support their company.
Moreover, I can't value them. I don't know if some drugs will be approved or not (or when), I don't know what their price will be, what their profit margin will be. The risk is they spend another 10 years trying to approve something and just burning cash. I have no problem with that, given that it isn't my cash !
Alternative energy is another sector trading at lofty valuations. Of course, some of them might be big winners ... but that can take years and in the meantime, since they're not selling anything and need money, they dilute shareholder's value. Market cap is maintained or might even go up while the share price declines.
Finally, mining companies without mining operations. Basically, what they own is land. If I wanted to buy land I would invest in the real estate market, not in stocks.
I like stocks. I'm a bull in this market. I'm even starting to think this isn't a stock market, but a market of stocks, if you know what I mean (if you don't, ask).
So, start bringing those suggestions. You know I'm holding SILC, CPNE.OB and GOAM and I'm not planning to sell them for now.
Thanks for your participation :)
MPW for the long term?
Got a thread here for MPW http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5842.0. Its a great stock to sit money in for the long term. Anyway lets get back to the stocks on fire >:D.
RNOW is looking good
LAVA as well
ENCY as a bottom play
XIDE up up ;D
Quote from: nica33 on February 01, 2007, 09:51:13 AM
XIDE up up ;D
Yep, I hope prodigykid covered that short. I wish I bought XIDE too ... congrats nica33 :)
STTC is on fire.
dave how about NYNY
I know David doesn't like Biotech. But NEXM can be a big winner today /know this company/
i had stops set....that stock is on roids >:D
And pretty sure Xide finished red today
Quote from: JKN on February 01, 2007, 09:35:51 AM
MPW for the long term?
3 minute look for MPW:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=8208313608272420966&hl=en
(if the video doesn't work, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8208313608272420966))
MPW is an interesting real estate company, but 2006 results came in below estimates and it is trading at 12.5 times revenues. But showing a very fat net profit margin of 60%. I'm neutral on the stock, good luck :)
SoftNet Technology Corp. (OTCBB: STTC - http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STTC.OB ) SoftNet Technology Corp. is pleased to announce that it has obtained a Court Order to cancel 150 Million shares of the Company's Class A Common stock. This will reduce the number of shares outstanding from approximately 450 million to approximately 300 million -- about a 33% reduction
they had some insider buying in the second half of last year, have recently been selected by a German co. for participation in this pilot program....
STTC Softnet Technology Corp (OTC BB) 2/1/2007 10:14:41 AM ET
Realtime Quote $0.04 + $0.01 (+22.58%) Refresh Quote
Press Release for Softnet Technology Corp
SoftNet Selected to Participate in 'Best of Breed' Pilot Partnership Program
1/23/2007 4:01:16 PM
ISELIN, N.J., Jan 23, 2007 (PrimeNewswire via COMTEX) -- SoftNet Technology Corp. ( STTC ) (German WKN: A0B7RZ) was recently notified, by one of the Company's Fortune 1000 clients, that SoftNet was selected to participate in a pilot program to develop an automated process for the client to track and select consultants for their work with primary customers.
SoftNet was one of only four global solution service partners selected to participate in the pilot program. Upon conclusion of the pilot the client will roll out the program company wide for all vendors and partners. The pilot captures data related to the technical expertise, IT certifications of employees, bench strength and quality of consultants.
"We are very pleased, and honored, to be selected for this pilot program. Anytime, and in anyway, the Company can strengthen its relationship with existing clients, we will take full advantage of and participate to the fullest extent possible. This opportunity is viewed as a win-win for both the Company and the client, improving the quality of service provided by both parties, improving two way communications, and elevates the end customer experience," said Jim Booth -- CEO.
Please visit our website at http://www.softnettechnology.com for more information or for Investor Relations; please contact the company directly at 908-212-1799, option 7, James Booth-CEO, or by e-mail at:
[email protected] lastly, they just effectively retired a third of their shares so even with the stock up a solid 19 to 20%, there should be another 10% just to even things up! Have some/all of the shorts woke up this morn??? will they by session end?
CPNE is getting bullish /David thank you for the tip,like this company!/
Quote from: cramercramer on February 01, 2007, 10:33:47 AM
CPNE is getting bullish /David thank you for the tip,like this company!/
You like it, I love it ! Been buying it for the long term.
Just a flavour of the fundamental trends:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=32589;image)
Quote from: nullzero on February 01, 2007, 09:50:07 AM
RNOW is looking good
LAVA as well
RNOW 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=3961062801654690923&hl=en
(if the video doesn't work, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3961062801654690923))
RNOW had beautiful revenue and profit trends, but it reported a loss for 2006 and the guidance talks about a ($0.56) to ($0.64) EPS loss for 2007, so I guess the buying today is more short covering than anything else.
I don't see where's the fun of waiting until 2008 for a profit, with all the risks that implies. Already more than $500 M market cap company.
I see $2.95 resistance for CPNE now
What about selling GOAM for now and buying XIDE for a short-term trade. I think we may have to wait a few more days for GOAM to break-out. I see another 52 week High coming for XIDE today. I could be wrong though!
GOAM will go up after 11:00am /at least till $8.90/
RFMD?
Quote from: mbaugh on February 01, 2007, 10:45:46 AM
What about selling GOAM for now and buying XIDE for a short-term trade. I think we may have to wait a few more days for GOAM to break-out. I see another 52 week High coming for XIDE today. I could be wrong though!
Yes, GOAM is having some problems with overhead resistance. Perhaps it will only breakout when results are reported. I wonder when will that be?
You know I like XIDE, but I wouldn't buy it here, at least not for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, it has been on fire for several days in a row, it might pull back on profit taking. I wouldn't consider these issues if I were to buy it for the long term, but since this is a short term portfolio.
SILC and CPNE.OB are breaking out :)
USEI - Auto conversion to bio-diesel
Quote from: nullzero on February 01, 2007, 09:50:07 AM
RNOW is looking good
LAVA as well
LAVA 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-6292916152213561104&hl=en
(if the video doesn't work, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6292916152213561104))
LAVA is up due to a court ruling saying it is right on a litigation with Synopsis, but that doesn't bring any revenues to the company. Those revenues have remained more or less stable over the latest quarters just above $40 M and the company is losing more than $10 M a quarter.
I guess it can move a bit more higher to close a gap at $10.39, but it will fall back down. The news doesn't change the fundamentals, and those are not attractive.
Quote from: LSUJay on February 01, 2007, 11:08:05 AM
USEI - Auto conversion to bio-diesel
Hello LSUJay, thanks for the suggestion :)
USEY was covered on Tuesday, here's what I wrote about it and the updated chart:
«
Quote from: kslifka on January 30, 2007, 09:49:15 AM
USEI....only OTBC really moving today so far that I see. Alt. energy play coming off the bottom??.
Yes, USEI is up a lot today (57% as I write), but the technical trend is bearish and I see important resistance at $0.15 - $0.16.
Fundamentally the market cap is about $13 M, no relevant revenues and huge losses every quarter. The balance sheet is also very weak with negative working capital.
I'm avoiding the company, I guess the latest positive press releases are just to impress investors and get their money to face short term working capital deficiencies.»
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=32508;image)
Hide can close $6.60-$6.80
REFR is smoking. Been watching...but don't like the fudamentals. I guess I just should have ridden the wave :(
Quote from: 422fwhp on February 01, 2007, 09:50:22 AM
ENCY as a bottom play
ENCY 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-2780390745865145333&hl=en
(if the video doesn't work, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2780390745865145333))
Hi 422fwhp, it looks like you didn't read my initial post today or the FAQ, which says the following about biotechnology stocks:
«I've added a new Q&A to our FAQ section (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.msg84845#msg84845), which is the # 15:
Quote15 - Can I suggest stocks from any sector?
Yes, you can, but David doesn't like biotechnology, alternative energy or mining stocks with no operations. He welcomes everything else.
I figure that it is a waste of time to keep bringing up stocks from these sectors, because I never enjoy them. Of course, biotechnology is very important, alternative energy is very important, mining not all that much, but I feel it shouldn't be my money to finance their operations until they eventually start making some revenues and profits to support their company.»
ENCY is a perfect example. $200 M market cap company losing $25 M a quarter.
I dislike it. I also never look to bottom fish, the money is made in the middle of trends, not in the potential reversals. Those can take a lot of time and there's a lot of shaking, one usually is thrown out of the stock before the real move unfolds.
Thank you and I apologize for not reading all the posts.
SILC doing what it had to do, given the fundamentals. Up 9% as I write this. My 2 days wait was worth it.
I see $1 EPS for fiscal 2007. Still way undervalued.
ZIXI 40% up since yesterday and NEXM 29% up today.Maybe Biotech not too bad for the trading
How about ITWO David?
I own, but am unsure how good the report was. THNX
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070201/20070201005373.html?.v=1
HOTJ looks interesting- picking up some volume
Quote from: cramercramer on February 01, 2007, 12:02:57 PM
ZIXI 40% up since yesterday and NEXM 29% up today.Maybe Biotech not too bad for the trading
And how many are down?
dave did you forget about STTC.OB? looks interesting
REFR! on fire
Quote from: flyingstocks on February 01, 2007, 10:03:45 AM
STTC is on fire.
STTC.OB 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=4655638380567154087&hl=en
(if the video doesn't work, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4655638380567154087))
The news is they canceled 33% of their shares outstanding. So the stock is up about 30% to be at the same market cap it was before. The news is already reflected in the share price.
STTC.OB is now a $12 M technology company (considering 300 million shares outstanding). I like the big revenue jump in the nine months through September 2006. It's a pity they're losing even more money now that they have more revenues. And the balance sheet shows negative working capital, so they will probably dilute shareholder's value due to short term liquidity needs.
I'm short term negative on STTC.OB, but longer term perhaps there's something there, awesome revenue growth.
Thanks for the suggestion, good luck :)
Quote from: cramercramer on February 01, 2007, 12:02:57 PM
ZIXI 40% up since yesterday and NEXM 29% up today.Maybe Biotech not too bad for the trading
Cramer, Cramer, ZIXI is up just 27% from yesterday's open (and barely above yesterday's high), not 40% as you say.
Anyway, good luck with those biotechs :)
Actually I hate Biotech too. Zixi sold out $1.80 /will buy back $1.62/ and NEXM/43% now/ will keep
David, CHBD.OB ($1.04, up 18%) looks interesting. It just broke out a 1 year top. up with latest qtr making 3 cents
ZIXI - 1.84-1.35:1.35+36.2%
PGIC. I know it isn't in fire today, but chart looks interesting.
Thanks
ROCM looks like an attractive medical play. Very undervalued still at these levels.
Quote from: nullzero on February 01, 2007, 12:26:31 PM
ROCM looks like an attractive medical play. Very undervalued still at these levels.
Nullzero...thanks for the tip on ROCM...It's located right next to the Mayo clinic.
Never knew the stock existed but It looks like a great short and long term buy.
I dont know if I was reading that right but a PE in the 5s!? for ROCM thats a steal.
big gap up for ADM today. Whatchya think about that one? Looks fairly bearish but maybe something is changing.
ADM is a solid company, and is heavily invested in Ethanol production. Earnings must be improving (the street liked what it saw today on ADM earnings.) and its balance sheet looks good I think we are seeing a massive short covering. Its already double volume so I believe this can be a turn around. Its breaking resistance in the 35s, I would say it can continue its trend upward.
Quote from: stock on February 01, 2007, 10:07:08 AM
dave how about NYNY
NYNY 3 minute look:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-7553128682411478302&hl=en
(if the video doesn't play, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7553128682411478302))
I like NYNY's short term chart, but facing short term resistance at $10.20. Long term trend is still bearish. Balance sheet is weak. I'm not sure about this one, I'm neutral on the stock.
Quote from: 422fwhp on February 01, 2007, 11:04:38 AM
RFMD?
I wrote about RFMD on January the 24th, here' my take on it:
«
Quote from: boatguy on January 24, 2007, 10:00:14 AM
Just noticed the volume spike- looks like some support at 7.28 and 7.11 risky for now though- HGR getting some volume now-NTMD still going, just passed through HOD
I agree boatguy, results were out on RFMD and I have an hard time analyzing them. They look stellar, but guidance for the next quarters are not so hot. Technically the stock is facing resistance, I'm not a fan.
Just made a quick video on the technicals:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=781233401509648437&hl=en»
Nothing has changed.
You really need to read the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0), because Q&A 13 says the following:
«
13 - Should I suggest big or small cap companies?You can suggest anything you want (provided it's not a PK), but we prefer companies with less than $500 M market cap»
RFMD is a $1.5 B market cap company, so, not what we're looking for.
Thanks for the suggestion anyway :)
CLRK :o
sexy
Let's help CPNE break $2.40!!!
Hi David,if you get a chance can you look at atea for me. Thanks
ONNN semiconductor on fire, though I admit market cap bigger than we like at 3.6B and a poor balance sheet, they had great earnings just released, at an all time high.
Quote from: cramercramer on February 01, 2007, 01:26:17 PM
Let's help CPNE break $2.40!!!
There's no need for that. Cramer, are you a pumper?
More, are you rayongthai? You have the same style.
No! I am not this guy.Let's help GOAM now!!
David! YOU ARE THE MAN!!!
Hey David - I'd like to second boatguy's request for HOTJ. Looks pretty good, only problem that I can see is low margins. Rev's are growing QoQ with the 4th Q looking good...I think. Not sure what this means:
<<...it expects sales for the year ended December 31, 2006 will exceed the $30 million threshold established in connection with the placement of the company's senior convertible notes and warrants in May 2006. The company recorded sales of $5.6 million for 2005 and exceeded its initial sales threshold of $14 million for the first nine months of 2006.>>
David, did you forget about ITWO? THNX
Quote from: BigSully1 on February 01, 2007, 12:03:33 PM
How about ITWO David?
I own, but am unsure how good the report was. THNX
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070201/20070201005373.html?.v=1
3 minute look for ITWO:
I tried to upload the video twice, but some error happened, sorry.
The short and medium term technical trends are bullish. Fundamentally it looks somewhat cheap, if they can meet 2007 estimates of $1.35 EPS.
But revenues are going down, they were $389 M in 2004, $336 M in 2005 and today they reported $279.7 M for 2006.
I wouldn't buy it but I don't see it going down much either. Good luck :)
Quote from: cramercramer on February 01, 2007, 01:46:04 PM
No! I am not this guy.Let's help GOAM now!!
David! YOU ARE THE MAN!!!
You're right, rayongthai was a pumper, but he knows a lot about fundamental analysis. He's no short term trader like you.
How many coffees have you drank today? ;D
Just kidding with you. Be calm, you seem excited with stock movements. That's bad for your health.
You take care.
Bought some goam @8.38,also mdii here on news
HGR on fire again !!!
Hi David,
I like to know your opinion about MEOH
which had a nice steady rise for the last 3 years
QuoteWYY my old pick? I don't think so phabrux, at least, I don't remember it. Perhaps it was of the beers I had over lunch , so please refresh my memory with a link.
So David, as a beer fan like me, why don't you have a look at this site before your next order? www.bierebel.com
About WDPT.ob -----now--> WYY
You are right, it was a Previous 3SOF Pick managed by Michel or ElitG. I still have it in my portfolio, so with the spring approching I wish to do a bit of cleaning up!
Here is the link:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5092.45
Happy trading!
phabrux
Hey David,
Would you suggest buying into CPNE today even after the jump? Still a good prospect for more of a run?
Also what do you think of SWIR? Announced earnings last night and beat estimates by a few cents and then guided about 30% higher next quarter. In a growing industry (wireless communications). Dropped today some after opening up more than 10%. I know it's a good long term play but any short term potential?
Thanks
QuoteHey David,
Would you suggest buying into CPNE today even after the jump? Still a good prospect for more of a run?
You should subscribe to the 3 Stocks Premium service (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php) dwest718.
There I made a complete long term fundamental analysis of CPNE.OB. I can't share it with you, or else subscribers would be paying for nothing.
SWIR?
I'm sorry, I've covered 14 stocks so far today, I still have 7 more here, and probably I won't get to that today ... I will also miss some of the recent requests made today, so there's no use in posting more requests for this session.
You can ask for the ones I missed today right at tomorrow's open, because my daily limit is about 20 stocks.
Thanks for your participation :)
Quote from: boatguy on February 01, 2007, 12:06:27 PM
HOTJ looks interesting- picking up some volume
3 minute look for HOTJ:
This stupid google video is starting to annoy me. "Upload error" again. Let's keep going in writing.
HOTJ's chart is very bullish (although volume in absolute terms is light, just 243,000 shares traded today), but fundamentally I think it's full of air.
Market cap is $145 M, for expected $30 M in revenues for full year 2006, so revenue multiple is about 5. The company sold $12 M in Q3, but it lost $3 M anyway.
I didn't have time to check that convertible debenture issue, but they didn't show up on Q3 balance sheet. They have 2,000,000,000 shares authorized, I don't like that, it looks like they're preparing to dilute shareholder's value by a lot, turning HOTJ a penny stock.
If that's their plan, they will probably make it rise first with volume to create a market, and then they will sell on the way down toward pennies.
So, it can go up due to manipulation, I think, but buying it is a bit of a gamble.
I would avoid HOTJ shares, even though they can rise a lot over the short term, because liquidity is low, long term risk is high.
I know that you have no time for more stocks, but did you review OPBL.ob so far, if yes which is the link?
Quote from: flyingstocks on February 01, 2007, 12:21:44 PM
David, CHBD.OB ($1.04, up 18%) looks interesting. It just broke out a 1 year top. up with latest qtr making 3 cents
Well, this is a very low volume stock flyingstocks. Its chart looks like a comb.
Fundamentally:
- $36 M market cap. Engaged in sportswear;
- Balance sheet is acceptable;
- No growth over the years. The price to sales ratio is just about 0.23;
- EPS of 6 cents in fiscal 2006. Trailing earnings multiple is about 17.
Not cheap, not expensive. Extremely low liquidity.
Overall I think it is a boring stock that can move higher, but it can also drop dead around the $1 level.
Quote from: nica33 on February 01, 2007, 12:24:45 PM
PGIC. I know it isn't in fire today, but chart looks interesting.
Thanks
Yep, it has been making higher highs and higher lows since August. There was also a golden cross recently.
Brief fundamental analysis:
- Market cap = $320 M. Develops, acquires and distributes innovative table and slot game content as well as software products to meet the needs of gaming operators worldwide (I like the sector);
- Balance sheet is OK, but $59 M in long term debt;
- Revenues went down every year since 2001. Just $75 M expected for 2006. $100 M average estimate for 2007, so analysts are expecting some growth (still, below 2001 levels)
- Estimated EPS loss of ($0.85) in 2006 and ($0.01) for 07.
Overall I don't consider it interesting. But it can rise anyway ;)
Boy oh boy - SYX is definitely on fire! ;)
...................i don´t no..................................., but i think.................... "PLRO" ...................is on fire today.........
anyway................... nice trdes with you dave.......
Quote from: nullzero on February 01, 2007, 12:32:47 PM
I dont know if I was reading that right but a PE in the 5s!? for ROCM thats a steal.
Let me start by the chart ... awesome :o At a new all time high today.
Brief fundamental analysis:
- MK = $182 M. Develops, manufactures and markets a line of innovative, technologically enhanced PVC-free and latex-free urinary continence and urine drainage care products for the extended care and acute care markets.
- BS extremely strong. $42 M in cash (they gained $38.6 M in a lawsuit settlement this quarter). Current Ratio = 4.62.
- Revenues up consecutively for the past seven quarters.
- Considering $9 M revenue average for 2007 four quarters, I get $36 M in revenues, so, according to this estimate, revenue multiple is 5. The industry average is 3.
- Without this huge one time gain, actually fiscal Q1 2007 (calendar Q4 2006) were somewhat worse than calendar Q3 2006. Revenues rose, but EBITDA declined.
- Considering net profit margin on a normal quarter, say calendar Q2 2006, of 13.3% and my 2007 revenue projection of $36 M, I see EPS of $0.43 for the full calendar 2007.
- So, the forward earnings multiple is $16.7/$0.43 = 39. The industry average is 26.
I think the stock is fully valued at current levels.
Quote from: dnickers on February 01, 2007, 03:15:29 PM
Boy oh boy - SYX is definitely on fire! ;)
And taking the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) to new all time highs with it 8)
With the press release out today people finally found out that SYX isn't just www.tigerdirect.com, it also is a PC maker probably taking market share from DELL ;)
Quote from: nullzero on February 01, 2007, 12:11:04 PM
REFR! on fire
Yep, on fire, but incipient revenues of $175 k for a $124 M market cap. Hitachi deal won't fix this.
Not worth it. Good luck though :)
Looks to be a nice close for ITWO, near HOD.
David, there seems to be some resistance at 2.49 on CPNE, what are your thoughts on a breakout?
Quote from: oakhedge on February 01, 2007, 03:54:38 PM
David, there seems to be some resistance at 2.49 on CPNE, what are your thoughts on a breakout?
That's not a resistance, that's just today's high. Focus on the fundamentals (you're a Premium member, read them carefully on the Main Portfolio message board) and let the profits run.
Stop watching every tick. Let the trend be your friend :)
Final results for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) are in, it was up 3.38% today, up 51% since inception 10 sessions ago, to $22,653.
I'll investigate when will GOAM release earnings, because I can't afford having an under performer for long in this fast portfolio.
I hope you're enjoying this experience, see you tomorrow :)