Good morning :)
I know SILC and CPNE.OB are opening down a bit, but it doesn't cross my mind selling them, as they're still on fire, both technically and fundamentally.
Start bringing me those suggestions, we covered 159 stocks so far (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075), still a lot of work to do.
Have a nice day :)
David, can you look at NWD. Thanks, rudy
could you please check DKAM >:D ?
tia
Oliver
Why the sell-off in CPNE?
KSW please
RDCM earnings out-look pretty good.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070205/ukm005.html?.v=93
Quote from: mbaugh on February 05, 2007, 09:36:34 AM
Why the sell-off in CPNE?
you think its going to go straight up to the moon lol...chill out it went up 25% friday. there is going to be some profit taking before it makes another run.
TWTR volume picking up
AVZA...I get numbers EPS from -.05 from Q4 of 2006 increasing this latest quarter to +.07 from Q1 of 2007. Technically looks good.
Quote from: mbaugh on February 05, 2007, 09:36:34 AM
Why the sell-off in CPNE?
Because it was up 25% on Friday, and stocks don't go up in a straight line. Today's weakness is a buying opportunity.
Agree.CPNE normal pullback.Should go up soon
Quote from: David Randolph on February 05, 2007, 09:55:10 AM
Quote from: mbaugh on February 05, 2007, 09:36:34 AM
Why the sell-off in CPNE?
Because it was up 25% on Friday, and stocks don't go up in a straight line. Today's weakness is a buying opportunity.
I understand and agree with you. I didn't think it would sell-off due to today's press release. Anyways, I'm not selling! I wouldn't be surprised if it closes green today! Thanks David!
Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 05, 2007, 09:32:00 AM
David, can you look at NWD. Thanks, rudy
3 minute look for NWD:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-891908465521664431&hl=en
(if the video doesn't start, please use this link (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-891908465521664431))
3 minutes were not enough to judge NWD from a fundamental standpoint, but what I saw wasn't particularly interesting. Besides the stock has very low volume, trading just 33,400 shares today at $1.66.
But, thanks for the suggestion, good luck :)
NVTL
CBLI dont know why its running but up over 20% on high volume.
Quote from: la-onda on February 05, 2007, 09:33:15 AM
could you please check DKAM >:D ?
tia
Oliver
Woooww, Initially you had RSFF.OB as a request, didn't you Oliver? You just modified your post, right? Well, unfortunately I already made a small video for RSFF.OB, a really disinteresting stock, I wonder why you're interested in it:
(Damn, google video is asking 3 Stocks to pay to upload more videos, they consider us a "movie producer with many titles", lol)
My fundamental database had no data for this stock, which is trading just 2,500 shares today.
La-onda, please put another post requesting an analysis for DKAM, all right? Thanks :)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 05, 2007, 09:55:10 AM
Quote from: mbaugh on February 05, 2007, 09:36:34 AM
Why the sell-off in CPNE?
Because it was up 25% on Friday, and stocks don't go up in a straight line. Today's weakness is a buying opportunity.
Just picked up 5k more shares at 2.65.
When we look for momentum stocks early in the day, should we adjust volume, i.e. over 100k instead of over 300k as the day is just beginning?
ANAD running high on very high volume.
David you should try youtube.com to post the videos
you are right, I have modified my post; please check DKAM :D
tia
O.
How about ACGI? How long will the run last?
Quote from: nullzero on February 05, 2007, 10:16:18 AM
CBLI dont know why its running but up over 20% on high volume.
CBLI is one of those biotechs with $100 M market cap and incipient revenues. I can't judge it. There are news out today and the chart ... well, it can go both ways. I'm neutral on the stock.
Quote from: TraderStar on February 05, 2007, 10:26:41 AM
When we look for momentum stocks early in the day, should we adjust volume, i.e. over 100k instead of over 300k as the day is just beginning?
Yes, over 100 K for this time of the day would be fine.
In NVTL @ $12.03 ;D
NVTL
TGX moving up making new 52wk highs as we speak.
ZICA is flying today. Could retest 2.83 high that was hit in the end of Dec.
Hello David
AAGH.ob ;)
Quote from: kpunarc on February 05, 2007, 09:37:15 AM
KSW please
Technically KSW is still bullish on a long and medium term view, but bearish over the short term, as it is breaking below the 50 days moving average as I write. Average volume is extremely low, with just 21,100 shares traded on Friday.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $37 M. KSW Mechanical furnishes and installs heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems and process piping systems for institutional, industrial, commercial, high-rise residential and public works projects.
- Balance sheet is acceptable, but the current ratio is a somewhat below what I like to see, currently at 1.52.
- Although revenues are up from the year ago levels, EPS are down, which tells me the company is becoming less efficient. Net profit margin is eroding.
On this same space I prefer BRR. But it is also a dead stock.
Thanks for the suggestion, good luck :)
OFI moving today .. quick look at fundies look ok (at least to my untrained eyes...) Meets other criteria.
OFI on fire again today
NGS another one looking good
IIG
Quote from: BigSully1 on February 05, 2007, 09:38:03 AM
RDCM earnings out-look pretty good.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070205/ukm005.html?.v=93
Technically RDCM is neutral. It might breakout above the $3.3 resistance level, but for now we can only hope. Let me check the fundamentals of the company:
- Market cap is $48 M. The Company develops, manufactures, markets and supports innovative, high-performance internetworking test and analysis equipment and quality management for data communications and telecommunications networks
- Balance sheet is strong
- Indeed, this latest quarter was the strongest ever, both in revenue and EPS terms. If we annualize 4th quarter revenues we get about $30 M for a full year, and annualizing the $0.07 EPS we get $0.28, which points to a forward earnings multiple of just 11.
There are no analyst estimates on Yahoo, but I like the stock. In fact, I just bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) at $3.08.
Hi David - SLP
Thanks :)
Quote from: cramercramer on February 05, 2007, 10:54:37 AM
OFI on fire again today
Yes, we own it at the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) for longer term purposes, up 7.6% today, nice :)
FORG
Having a good day today .. coming off a recent dip ... I am already in at $1.26 but thought this could be a possible play to watch .. volume is still a bit low but has been slowly trending up
Quote from: boatguy on February 05, 2007, 09:43:35 AM
TWTR volume picking up
TWTR is stock #154 on our Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075)
My take was that it could run as high as $2, but this is a rebound in a bearish trend, and that always presents a poor reward/risk ratio opportunity, because most of the times trends persist. Fundamentally I was also worried about growing losses due to pricing competition from Wal Mart and other larger retailers.
David, you got RDCM a bit cheaper than I did, as I bought shortly after the open. I have another order in hoping to get filled.
I remember when you bought RDCM for the portfolio some time back maybe a year to 2 years ago. Earnings had just came out around 3c, and the stock just sat there around $2.28 for several days afterwards. Not very well followed. You saw it as a bargain, I saw it as a bargin and loaded up. Made lots of money on the tremendous run up that followed with many profitable trades in between. I believe it ran up to over $5.
I hope we can do that again.
hi david..............what´s about "etlt"
have a nice day..................
Quote from: kslifka on February 05, 2007, 09:51:04 AM
AVZA...I get numbers EPS from -.05 from Q4 of 2006 increasing this latest quarter to +.07 from Q1 of 2007. Technically looks good.
Hello kslifka :)
AVZA is stock # 153 on our Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). Yesterday I wrote:
Quote- EPS reported today for the fiscal Q1 2007 was $0.07. Good, but EPS for the fiscal Q4 2006 was $0.14, so net profit margin declined by a lot, even though revenues rose.
And yes, you're right, my fundamental service had this data wrong ??? Fiscal 4th quarter, 2006 had an EPS loss of 5 cents, not a EPS profit of $0.14 as I thought.
So comparisons are better. But still, if we multiply those $0.07 by four we get $0.28 and a forward earnings multiple of 22.
Perhaps not all that expensive, but double of what we get on RDCM, so I'm going with RDCM, but good luck with AVZA :)
MTMC picking up vol. price up
Quote from: prodigykid6 on February 05, 2007, 10:28:31 AM
David you should try youtube.com to post the videos
The problem with youtube.com is that we need a code to put the video here on the message board and youtube.com takes between 1 and 2 hours to give me that code. Google video used to be instantaneous, but then only about half an hour later, and now they don't let me upload videos at all, unless I talk to them about being a professional video publisher or something like that. Of course, now I don't have time for that kind of talk, maybe later.
Thanks for the advice :)
Too bad David you don't like biotech. NEXM can be next VPHM
HSOA crossing 200 ma.
Stock has made numerous failed attempts, let's see if this one holds.
TRMM interesting again 2.95 now at top of the day. very interesting on break of 2.95
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 10:11:39 AM
NVTL
First of all, congrats to boatguy and everybody else that got into NVTL, up 11% now.
Today the stock is dancing around the $12.35 resistance level, trying to breakout, on really heavy volume. I hope it succeeds. But I also note the open was $12.69, so the stock couldn't gain even more strength since the open, at, least, not yet, as it is trading at $12.48.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $370 M. Provider of wireless broadband access solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market.
- Balance sheet is strong, with a current ratio of 3.63 and $84 M in cash
- Revenue trends are positive, big revenue jump of 38% in Q4 when compared to Q3, to $76 M according to the press release out today
- They offered guidance for 2007, which calls for $330 - $350 M in revenues (so, forward Price to Sales Ratio is about 1, the industry average is 2.28. Also, this revenue estimate is way above the analyst's consensus estimates which were of $258 M in revenues for 07.
- They also talk about Non GAAP earnings guidance of about $0.60 a share, which could translate into a lot lower GAAP number of about $0.30 - $0.40, I don't know.
- So, the comparable forward earnings multiple is about 35.
Can't consider it cheap. I wouldn't buy it here, despite beating estimates and revising guidance a lot higher. Good luck :)
David, maybe metacafe.com to load videos???
Quote from: marlene on February 05, 2007, 11:29:41 AM
hi david..............what´s about "etlt"
have a nice day..................
Technically ETLT.OB is at a critical point now, as it faces the $0.79 medium term resistance level. I remember covering this stock about a year ago, and the problem them was related to the conversion of their Renminbi reserves to USD, or something like that. Let's see what we have on the fundamental front now:
- $30 M market cap. An agricultural genetics and bio-pharmaceutical company operating in China.
- Balance sheet is incredibly strong, with a current ratio of 13 and working capital of $39.7 M, that's more than the market cap :o. They claim to have $40.1 M in cash, that's also more than the market cap. Probably that conversion problem remains, I'll have to check the 10-Q form.
- Revenue trends are positive, although revenues declined in Q3 when compared to Q2. The company is quite profitable. I see 12 cents of EPS over the latest 4 quarters. That puts the trailing earnings multiple at 6.4.
So, the stock looks incredibly cheap here. Let me check if they file the proper 10 forms with the SEC ... yes, they do !
This stock reminds me of BBC. Similar sector, similar situation. They look extremely cheap ... too cheap to be true. The market doesn't trust their numbers. I'll have to take a deeper look into ETLT.OB, thanks for the tip, good luck :)
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 11:18:10 AM
FORG
Having a good day today .. coming off a recent dip ... I am already in at $1.26 but thought this could be a possible play to watch .. volume is still a bit low but has been slowly trending up
I covered FORG a while back on the Premium area of 3 Stocks (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php). Didn't like it, because I saw everybody excited about revenues that were non recurrent. It reminds of PTSC.OB, another stock that I dislike.
Anyway, here's the video I made on it, perhaps I'm wrong, good luck:
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1136344636897386159&hl=en
Quote from: dnickers on February 05, 2007, 11:08:42 AM
Hi David - SLP
Thanks :)
Technically SLP looks extremely bullish(http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $57.8 M. Develops and produces modeling and simulation software for use in pharmaceutical research and for education and also provides contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry. Its subsidiary produces computer software and specialized hardware.
- Balance sheet is ... well, there are no liquidity problems.
- Strange, I don't see any revenue growth ... the company is profitable, but just barely.
What's happening here? I have to check the latest news ...
«Ms. Beran continued: "We're now half way through our second fiscal quarter, which will end on February 28. Pharmaceutical software and services revenues for the quarter are already ahead of last year's second quarter. It appears at this time that our earlier guidance of an expected increase in total revenues of approximately one million dollars for FY07 over FY06 will be achieved in the first two quarters alone. We expect to provide updated guidance after the end of the second quarter."»
It has to do with guidance. So, they'll sell about $2 M more or so, when compared to 2005, where they sold $5.8 M. I think the positive guidance is already priced in by the stock's valuation. I would consider it on a dip though, the business model looks attractive.
David,
Thank you for your great analysis on FORG. I will be careful here not to let a profit turn into a loss.
BTW, Since I am a very visual person, I love the fundamental bar graph that you used for FORG. It's a very quick way of looking at the past and current growth/decline.
Quote from: akclide on February 05, 2007, 11:39:10 AM
MTMC picking up vol. price up
Perhaps the stock is developing a double bottom pattern, but it's odd how it came off after that one day spike it had on December 5, 2006.
Reading the financial statements and recent news, I get:
- Market cap is $24.6 M. National provider of innovative information technology ('IT') solutions, including Access, Convergence, Consolidation, Virtualization, and Managed Services.
- Balance sheet is weak, but not terribly so. Working capital is minus $6 M.
- Revenues for the past 4 quarters were an incredible $282 M, so the trailing sales multiple is about 0.09.
- The problem is the company has been losing money every quarter even with these very high revenue numbers. It lost $19 M over the last 4 quarters.
This is an interesting situation, because if the company turns profitable this stock will fly like a rocket ! They will release earnings tomorrow after the close.
Hmm, it's obvious the stock would fall back after the rally on December 5, the news out that day wouldn't change the company's fundamental picture:
• MTM Technologies Awarded Multi-Million Dollar Services Contract by Webster Bank (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061205/20061205005166.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, Dec 5)
They already had plenty of sales, what they need now is profits.
I could risk some money here, because I think the worst case scenario is already priced in and the stock is moving up ahead of earnings (so, perhaps they'll be above expectations).
I'm thinking if I shouldn't take profits on SILC and put some money to work on this possible rocket. MTMC is more risky, but the short term potential is also higher. Doubts, doubts ... I'll let you know, let me check some more things.
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 12:55:29 PM
David,
Thank you for your great analysis on FORG. I will be careful here not to let a profit turn into a loss.
BTW, Since I am a very visual person, I love the fundamental bar graph that you used for FORG. It's a very quick way of looking at the past and current growth/decline.
Yes, quick way to see fundamental trends, it's a pity that I take about 1 and a half hours to make an analysis like that. Those graphs are "hand" made :P
Thanks :)
One of the recent 3sof picks and still currently in the LT portfolio (OFI) has made IBD's 10 highest rated stocks under 10. Others on the list include some recent suggestions from posters here (PTT, JADE, STTS, and I believe TSTC and BRCD)
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/ibd020507.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/ibd020507_article1.html
Stocks must be trading above $15/share to be included in the IBD 100. I think SYX still holds the #1 to #3 position there.
QuoteI could risk some money here, because I think the worst case scenario is already priced in and the stock is moving up ahead of earnings (so, perhaps they'll be above expectations).
I'm thinking if I shouldn't take profits on SILC and put some money to work on this possible rocket. MTMC is more risky, but the short term potential is also higher. Doubts, doubts ... I'll let you know, let me check some more things.
Nah, risk is too high and liquidity is too low. It might give 20 or 30% very fast profit though. Good luck if you hold it, I feel like a chicken.
Quote from: MrChina on February 05, 2007, 11:58:09 AM
TRMM interesting again 2.95 now at top of the day. very interesting on break of 2.95
Indeed MrChina, perhaps its time is arriving, after shaking most weak hands out of the ship (myself included). I sure hope so, as I know some folks kept holding.
Good luck :)
Not much history on it, but BULK seems to be hot today due to some purchase they made. I am not in it, just saw it in my scans.
How about PFSW? Moved out of the low .90's Friday to just over a buck today.Was 1.40ish a couple weeks ago. Thanks
I know David already covered TWTR. I think it is real. Its stores are good sizes and the leasehold itself is worth a lot more than 50m market cap. This earnings conf tomorrow will be focused on the turnaround plan, I think they have a good plan. their new store format is already showing profit. me thinking this is a good long term hold.
I sold SILC and bought ETLT.OB @$0.80 as I saw the stock crossing the $0.79 resistance level. I think there's still plenty, plenty of upside.
If the market starts believing the numbers the company has been releasing, I see no less of 100% advance from current levels.
I reviewed the latest 10-Q form from ETLT and indeed, they still have the convertibility (or lack of), between the RMB and the USD warning. But man, they could easily drop that, because other Chinese companies don't have that warning on their SEC files and nobody is complaining about it, although all Chinese companies have that same convertibility problem.
Jesus, if the market finally recognizes ETLT, and consider how it is trading below cash and with a trailing earnings multiple of 6.75, the stock would easily double.
Well, it is trading at a 3 year high now:
Quote from: David Randolph on February 05, 2007, 01:56:14 PM
I sold SILC and bought ETLT.OB @$0.80 as I saw the stock crossing the $0.79 resistance level. I think there's still plenty, plenty of upside.
If the market starts believing the numbers the company has been releasing, I see no less of 100% advance from current levels.
perfect david........................the last 3 or 4 quaters there was allways a growth.........
bye.......
ENPT charging ahead
Nice pick again david ETLT on fire moving higher!
Quote from: nica33 on February 05, 2007, 10:43:36 AM
Hello David
AAGH.ob ;)
AAGH.OB, a previous 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) pick, let me see why I sold it, as it is #24 on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075).
Ok, here's the motive:
«AAGH.OB sold @ $0.147.
I think it can go as high as $0.16, but I don't want to be greedy. 40% profit on the trade.
The thing is, during the night, I read the 10-Q of the company and found out that the CEO has 500,000 preferred shares that are convertible to 100,000,000 common shares of AAGH.OB. This makes AAGH's common shares a worthless piece of paper, the CEO will always own the company, no matter how many common shares we buy.»
It is a pretty serious selling reason, I'll never, ever, touch that stock again. OTCBB stocks with that nasty trick make me sick >:(
Hi,David,
How about PLRS.ob?looks it's on a upgoing trend....
Quote from: nullzero on February 05, 2007, 02:32:38 PM
Nice pick again david ETLT on fire moving higher!
Yes, it looks like everybody was looking to that $0.79 resistance breakout. When one understands what's moving a stock, or better, why the stock is trading at that specific valuation, it's is more or less easy to see the catalyst that could change everything.
As I wrote on page 3 of this thread:
QuoteSo, the stock looks incredibly cheap here. Let me check if they file the proper 10 forms with the SEC ... yes, they do !
This stock reminds me of BBC. Similar sector, similar situation. They look extremely cheap ... too cheap to be true. The market doesn't trust their numbers. I'll have to take a deeper look into ETLT.OB, thanks for the tip, good luck :)
The key is "the market doesn't trust their numbers". So, the catalyst to change the company's valuation is for the market to start believing the company's numbers. And the market showed everybody that was watching or willing to see that "I'm starting to believe the company's numbers" when it broke out to a new 3 year high.
This means this $30 M or so market cap can turn into a $80 M or more market cap (that would still be just 2 times cash levels), still way too cheap.
I remember studying this stock and pressing on the convertibility issue, even on other Chinese stocks, but the market now accepts that as natural - now the worry is the lack of proper form 10 filed with the SEC, that is what is holding XING and IMOS back (in the case of those stocks, the catalyst would be a form 10 filed with the SEC, that would make them double or triple in a couple of months).
Up 17% now, I would buy it here without a blink of an eye ...
MDTL is moving on some good volume.
DIVX pre-earnings run .. volume starting to kick in .. I took advantage of recent dip and holding at $20.55 .. been holding for weeks.
David,
ELTL great job as always!!! :o
Quote from: brucey on February 05, 2007, 02:45:20 PM
Hi,David,
How about PLRS.ob?looks it's on a upgoing trend....
Trading just about $200 K now, can't be considered for a trade, sorry, good luck if you're holding it :)
Asked about ACGI.ob earlier and it never got covered... do you have time to take a look David?
DIVX at $24.. My initial plan was to buy the dip and sell if pps gets near $26.
I am not sure if this would be a "fire" stock or not
TWTR did anyone catch that intraday dip?
Quote from: nullzero on February 05, 2007, 10:28:31 AM
ANAD running high on very high volume.
ANAD opened a big gap up at the open, between $9.14 and $10.07. News needs to be pretty significant for it to keep pushing higher over the short term, instead of coming back down to fill the gap.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $506.8 M (the stock rose some more to make you break your promise ;D). Provider of radio frequency integrated circuits & radio frequency front end solutions in the growing wireless handset & broadband communications markets.
- Balance sheet is nice, no liquidity problems, but $38 M in long term debt
- Revenues ae growing but still losing money every quarter
I don't know why the stock is up so much today ... no relevant news out. I don't know if I can explain why, but I'm not a fan of this type of stock.
This is a short term trader's or even day trader's stock. Very liquid and with nice price swings. nullzero likes this type of stocks ... I'm more of a momentum guy, looking for big gains in small and micro cap stocks, not for 3 or 5% in a very liquid stock like ANAD.
All in all, ANAD is too big for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). I can't tell if it will rise or not, what I do know is that for it to double, it needs to create $500 M in value, and usually that takes some months to do. I could consider it for the Main, but there I also like fat profits, not company's selling more and more but unable to show a profit. The problem with this is when they finally post a profit, people will make some pretty quick calculus and see that they're overvalued, because the earnings multiple is too high.
I used to make that mistake myself, looking for stocks that were just about to turn profitable, but still losing money. Almost always, when they post a positive EPS, it is just for a few cents and the stock tumbles.
Anyway, the stock is moving sharply higher today, good luck :)
DIVX oops sorry .. market cap is over 500m Just got so darn excited
Quote from: dwest718 on February 05, 2007, 03:14:17 PM
Asked about ACGI.ob earlier and it never got covered... do you have time to take a look David?
I just saw it dwest718, thanks for the reminder, what a remarkable move today, congrats !!!
Now I see, not just today, this penny stock rose 10 fold in just 11 trading days :o
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is now $44 M. The Company market memberships in a comprehensive, national, non-insurance based, quality discount eye care and eyewear plan. The memberships entitle plan participants to obtain eye care services and products from its network of providers.
- Balance sheet is awful, negative working capital of ($3.7 M)
- Revenues are less than $100 K per quarter
- There are convertible shares ...
The only reason why this stock is up so much is to then dilute shareholder's value all the way down to levels below where it was when everything started ... I'm pretty sure it will fall more than 90% in 6 months time.
Good luck though :)
Nice closes on RDCM and ETLT.OB put the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) in the green today.
After a pause I expect CPNE.OB to restart contributing to the overall portfolio's gains.
Tomorrow before the open I'll update the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075) with today's analysis.
Thanks for your participation, see you tomorrow :)