3SOF

Good morning :)

I've been working on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075) to put it in alphabetical order, but I'm still halfway to get the job done. Then it will be easier to find a stock on the list, and relevant comments posted on this message board about that stock.

When Ramsburg gets back from his holidays we'll study the possibility of introducing a 3 SOF ranking (like for example, "positive", "negative" or "neutral") and perhaps categorizing stocks in groups or sectors. But that's still a long shot.

I'm not planning to sell the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings, which are CPNE.OB, ETLT.OB and PFSW, soon, but I welcome your suggestions and requests for analysis.

Thanks for your participation :)

What do you think of NTWK?

XIDE is running and I think XIDEW will one of the biggest gainers today

how about ONT?

how about XNN?

very very interesting today

VEGF


great news out

ICOC may be interesting today also.  ENPT has no recent news and a current ratio < 2, but on fire recently, at all time highs today...

IMOT.OB

Quote from: tokyopua on February 08, 2007, 09:42:21 AM
What do you think of NTWK?

NTWK has been showing volume above average lately, but the medium term trend is still bearish. The stock will face important resistance just above $1.90, as you can see on the chart below. Today it opened a gap between $1.74 and $1.79, it might go down a bit to close that gap.

Fundamentally:

- $30.3 M market cap. The Company is an end-to-end information technology and business consulting services provider for the lease and finance, banking and financial services industries.
- Balance sheet is OK, the current ratio is 2.4 and the price to book value is just 1.2.
- Revenue trend is positive, with revenues growing every year since 2003 and expected to continue rising
- Losing some money over the last couple of quarters, but estimates point to $0.14 EPS for the next fiscal year, so it looks cheap.

I like NTWK, not much risk here.

Quote from: cramercramer on February 08, 2007, 09:46:14 AM
XIDE is running and I think XIDEW will one of the biggest gainers today

Yes, XIDE, what a shame. Although I've been very positive on it, I failed to buy it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) or the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).

Anyway, I saved prodigykid6 from that short, so something was gained.

Great stock, congrats to holders and ... and I should buy it ! (but not today, no capital available)

gm David,could you have a look at dddc for me ? New hod and +.04 @1.44 now.Thanks

Quote from: huayilu on February 08, 2007, 09:47:47 AM
how about ONT?

Technically the stock is perfect, coming back up after a correction to the rising 50 days moving average.

Fundamentally you need to really believe video on the web and its future to own ONT, and I'm a believer as you can read on the analysis I made on December 28th, 2006:

1. Profile

On2 Technologies, Inc. (ONT) operates as a video compression technology firm. It develops a proprietary technology platform and video compression/decompression (codec) software to deliver video to closed area networks, such as set-top boxes, Internet, and wireless devices.(complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ONT))

2. Technical Analysis
2.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31033;image)

ONT is one of those dead corps of the tech bubble debacle. I tend to like this kind of stocks now that a new bull market in technology is unfolding.

2.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31034;image)

I see a pattern of higher lows and higher highs since 2005. Also there was a golden cross about a month ago (the 50 days moving average crossed above the 200 days SMA).

2.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31035;image)

The short term trend is bullish. I sure like the technical picture, let's check the fundamentals.

3. Fundamental Analysis
3.1. Number of Shares Outstanding

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31036;image)

This company has been living from issuing and selling shares. I see heavy dilution not just every year, but every month. A bit less dilution in 2006, though.

The current market cap is 101,199,303*$1.09 = $110.3 M.

3.2. Liquidity

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31039;image)

The current ratio stands at 5.24, the company doesn't have a short term liquidity problem, with about $4.6 M in cash.

3.3. Revenues

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31037;image)

Revenues were incipient until 2005. But in 2006 they're growing quite strongly from 2005 levels as you can see on the graph above. I can clearly see revenues increasing even on a quarter by quarter basis. For Q1 I have $1.217 M, for Q2 $1.535 M and for Q3 2006 I have $1.703 M. If ONT makes, say, $1.9 M in revs in the 4th quarter, it will show full year revenues of $6.355 M.

Still, the revenue multiple would be an excessive $110.3 M/$6.355 M = 17. Excessive? It depends on the gross and net profit margins.

I see, for DIVX gross margin is 92% and net profit margin is 20%. This is very high. By the way, DIVX's revenue multiple is 15.

3.4. Profits

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31038;image)

The company lost big bucks over the last seven years.

4. General Overview

I can understand the recent tick up in the stock, revenues are growing a lot from a very small base. DIVX is the leader in this video compression industry and probably ONT is its closest competitor.

These two companies are still so small in revenue terms. But their gross and net income margins (well, ONT is still losing money) perhaps justify the extremely high revenue multiples.

They look like a biotech or software wonder.

You have to believe the online video mania to buy ONT. Do I believe video will be the way of communication of the future? I do.

Damn it, I should have made this analysis earlier, the stock is up 12% today ;D

Despite all the financial problems this company had, the market always looks to the future, and $110 M doesn't look like a very high price to pay to be involved in the current "go video" global trend. Also, the quarterly tick up in revenues might be saying ONT's time is arriving.

Good luck :)

This analysis was conducted by David Randolph from the 3 Stocks on Fire Team. If you would like to receive our newsletter with free analysis and join our 8,000 plus stock speculators community, please register (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register).

PFSW just got an upgrade  :o ...here is the link

http://stockmarket.businessweek.com/stocks/analyst_ratings.html?NOTATION=279717

Good Morning David,

Hope you had a good time yesterday.  Glad that you are back.

BLUE could you take a look.  Big Gain yesterday.  I was able to buy and sell some on yesterday's strength and rebought back again today.

Not on fire today since it's currently down 8% but would like a closer analysis

Thanks

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 08, 2007, 10:36:05 AM
Good Morning David,

Hope you had a good time yesterday.  Glad that you are back.

BLUE could you take a look.  Big Gain yesterday.  I was able to buy and sell some on yesterday's strength and rebought back again today.

Not on fire today since it's currently down 8% but would like a closer analysis

Thanks

Second that im in BLUE for the mid term unless support breaks down at 2.00.

VITR, trades at $2.93. 4q EPS 0.09, growing revenue q over q. up big yesterday, up today too.

Quote from: Terliso on February 08, 2007, 09:52:29 AM
how about XNN?

You have a great eye to read charts Terliso, so I don't have to tell you XNN chart is bullish.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $50 M. The Company Designs, manufactures and markets high-end, high-intensity portable illumination products. Product line consists of lightweight, long-range, ultra-high intensity illumination products used in a applications by the military and law enforcement.
- Balance sheet shows no short term liquidity problems, but it is very "small", with Total Equity being $2.4 M, so the Price to Book Value is something like 21.
- The cause for the recent rally was the 3Q revenue jump and the $0.05 EPS number. Multiply this number by four and get $0.20 EPS for a full year, which makes the earnings multiple look like 14.5, which is somewhat cheap.

Recent news talk about private placements and auditors raising the "going concern" flag. My take is the market potential of this business isn't all that big and $50 M for $2.4 M in book value and about $10 M in annual sales seems somewhat rich.

The company/stock is interesting but I don't consider it cheap at current levels, I would say, fairly valued to a bit overvalued. Any miss on the EPS front (which can come from dilution) and it will tank.

Good luck :)

ARGA.ob

Auriga Labs Reports Preliminary Year-End 2006 Gross Revenues and Provides Forecast for Q1 2007
Monday February 5, 8:45 am ET
2006 Gross Revenues up 96% to $7.4 Million; Forecasts $26 Million in 2007

NORCROSS, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Auriga Laboratories, Inc. (OTCBB:ARGA - News), a specialty pharmaceutical company with products for the treatment of acute respiratory diseases, dermatological conditions, and Xerostomia (dry mouth), reported preliminary, unaudited results for year ending December 31, 2006.

For the twelve months ended December 31, 2006, unaudited gross revenues totaled approximately $7.4 million, an increase of 96% from approximately $3.8 million reported for the period April 12, 2005 ("Inception") to December 31, 2005. Unaudited gross profit totaled approximately $4.1 million in 2006, an increase of 105% from $2.0 million reported from Inception to December 31, 2005.

For the first quarter ending March 31, 2007, the company forecasts $6.2 million in gross revenues and expects to be cash flow positive, with gross profit at approximately 60% of revenues. Management maintains its previously issued gross revenue guidance for 2007 at approximately $26 million.

Hi David,

Any thoughts on JOB?  It has a tiny enterprise value of $7MM and appears to have a bullish setup.

Thanks,
poorman1

Quote from: poorman1 on February 08, 2007, 11:08:19 AM
Hi David,

Any thoughts on JOB?  It has a tiny enterprise value of $7MM and appears to have a bullish setup.

Thanks,
poorman1

Hi poorman1, nice to see you :)

Yes, I have thoughts on JOB, look on the following links:

01/30/2007 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8829.msg86304#msg86304)
01/31/2007 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8839.msg86464#msg86464)

ABMC on fire

ABMC, just signed contract that double their rev in 2007. the stock only trades up 18%.

Quote from: flyingstocks on February 08, 2007, 11:24:01 AM
ABMC, just signed contract that double their rev in 2007. the stock only trades up 18%.

Looks hot, in at 1.14, thanks!

A note about ABMC - at the top of the Yahoo Finance quote:

ABMC has failed to meet NASDAQ Capital Market continued listing requirement(s).

I just flipped LMNX for a quick profit, I think it has hit resistance, but maybe not...

Quote from: MrChina on February 08, 2007, 09:54:49 AM
very very interesting today

VEGF

great news out

Thanks for the suggestion Mr China, lets check out VEGF.

Technically the stock is scary as hell, after that huge 68% gap down on April 10, 2006. Wait a minute, this is a biotech, you know I hate biotechnology stocks!

If you don't know, please take a look at the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). Thank you, good luck :)

(the only two biotechs that I like are ASPV and VPHM)

Quote from: flyingstocks on February 08, 2007, 11:24:01 AM
ABMC, just signed contract that double their rev in 2007. the stock only trades up 18%.

Let me check that one quickly.

Volume today is already 25 times the average daily volume of this stock which is only 28,600 shares.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $23 M. It develops, manufactures and markets immunoassay diagnostic test kits, primarily for the immediate, point of collection screening for drugs of abuse.
- No short term liquidity problems
- Some revenue growth, no profits but no large losses either.

Now the news moving the stock today:

• ABMC Signs Purchase Agreement (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070208/20070208005723.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu 10:49am)

«This new partnership will have a huge impact on our sales and earnings in 2007 with estimated sales in excess of $3 million.»

flyingstocks, flyingstocks, you know you can't post misleading stuff here. You need to be more careful with that in the future, ok?

2006 revenues are expected to come in around $15 M, so $3 M is just 20% more revenues, not 100% more.

The stock is up 13%, it will probably be up something like 20% or so, but there's no motive to make it run much higher from current levels, at least that's my evaluation of the impact of the news.

Good luck :)

Hi David!!  I would really like your toughts about IMOT.ob.  I asked you about it on feb 6 but it was late and you didn't have time.  Then it was trading @ 0.30.  Now is @ 0.41 with 9% up today

Thanks   ;)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 08, 2007, 11:48:56 AM

Quote from: flyingstocks on February 08, 2007, 11:24:01 AM
ABMC, just signed contract that double their rev in 2007. the stock only trades up 18%.

flyingstocks, flyingstocks, you know you can't post misleading stuff here. You need to be more careful with that in the future, ok?

Thanks David, was close to pulling the trigger on that one.

sorry David, It is my fault not noticing ABMC 3.5m rev is not the annual but qtrly on yahoo.

hi David, thx for nice pick on CPNE.ob.  ;D And can you help me take a look at ELNK and ARTX?   I made the purchase yesterday based on the RSI(2).

might wanna check out CCUR.

currently trading at a low level now.

Its seem stable at this price..

http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS2614481551.html

Quote from: nica33 on February 08, 2007, 11:50:26 AM
Hi David!!  I would really like your thoughts about IMOT.ob.  I asked you about it on feb 6 but it was late and you didn't have time.  Then it was trading @ 0.30.  Now is @ 0.41 with 9% up today

Thanks   ;)

Ok nica33, let's take care of IMOT.OB.

Technically this is a typical penny stock rally, up 250% in 6 trading days.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $70 M. Through ChinaE Tech, its wholly-owned subsidiary, the Company offers web design, web hosting, domain name registration, software development and office automation software to its clients.
- Balance sheet is acceptable, but Price to Book Value is about 7.
- Revenue trend is going down. Just $280 K sold in Q3.
- Lost about $4 M in Q2 and Q3 combined.

Probably there are news lately providing fuel to the advance:

• "First China Property Market Annual Forum" Held in Beijing (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070201/cnth012.html?.v=23)
PR Newswire (Thu, Feb 1)

• Business Development of Shenzhen International Hi-Tech Property Right Exchange Center Accelerated in 2006 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070206/cntu024.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Tue, Feb 6)

Ok, from the recent news I see that they completely changed their business model. Now the business description is:

«Founded in the USA in September 1998, the Intermost Corporation was the first Chinese Internet company listed on the US OTC Bulletin Board (stock symbol: IMOT) in December 1998. The Intermost Corporation has focused its services on the booming Equity Exchange Market in China, including equity- related solution development, equity quotes and information provision, electronic online equity exchange services, direct investment in regional equity exchanges, business incubation services for well-performing innovative enterprises, investment consulting services for overseas listings, the equity portal website -- China Equity Exchange Platform ( http://www.chinae.com ), and otherwise.»

I'm not sure what to think of this. The news and the sector look great, but, just $280 K in revenues in Q3 2006? Something is wrong, especially since they claim they've been involved in the recent operations since 2003.

I guess the stock is full of air here with $70 M market cap, but maybe I'm missing something. If you, nica33, or someone could be willing to fill the blanks, it would be great.

Thanks :)

Quote from: nullzero on February 08, 2007, 10:44:27 AM

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 08, 2007, 10:36:05 AM
Good Morning David,

Hope you had a good time yesterday.  Glad that you are back.

BLUE could you take a look.  Big Gain yesterday.  I was able to buy and sell some on yesterday's strength and rebought back again today.

Not on fire today since it's currently down 8% but would like a closer analysis

Thanks

Second that im in BLUE for the mid term unless support breaks down at 2.00.

I agree. Seems to be some decent intraday support just above $2.00.

Looks like it's slowly moving up as I am writing this.

Good Luck

David,

What are your thoughts on PMED. Ive been in it for a long time sitting on a loss. After yesterdays big run Im actually in the black by a bit. My position is relatively small (777,777 shares) so Im willing to take a risk and hold right now in hopes that its setting up for a big run similar to what ptsc did from the penny/sub penny level last year.

Specifically, what do you think the FDA approval is going to mean short/long term? I read an email someone recieved from the CEO yesterday which stated that they have and are currently working on sales deals in Europe and Asia. With the approval yesterday they might have some of the same coming in the US (hopefully not wishful thinking).

With such a small position, I dont feel like taking profits makes sense at this point, so I ll either sell here and move on or wait for a big move. Thanks for your thoughts/time.

Quote from: flyingstocks on February 08, 2007, 11:55:24 AM
sorry David, It is my fault not noticing ABMC 3.5m rev is not the annual but qtrly on yahoo.

I understand flyingstocks, it happens. Sometimes I also forget or confuse numbers and ideas and that may make people take actions based on inaccurate information that I provide.

Please keep up posting :)

David,

Take a look at GROW

Was curious what you thought of BLUE, David. I know BLUE is not on fire, but since it seems like a slow day so far and the market is in a slump today would love to hear your take. The fundmentals for BLUE looks pretty good.

Sold ABMC for loss of commission, and a lesson learned, well worth the price of tuition.

LMNX did break its resistance, seems like it could go to fill its gap?

Hey David

What are your thoughts on NMKT.

Hi David,

AMKR selling off on lower guidance. Sell or add more?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070207/amkor_outlook.html?.v=1

Thanks
Lalitha

Quote from: lalitha0 on February 08, 2007, 12:49:47 PM
Hi David,

AMKR selling off on lower guidance. Sell or add more?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070207/amkor_outlook.html?.v=1

Thanks
Lalitha

if you were a premium member you would know this  ;)

dave what doyou think of  ftrs

Yesterday I saw a 130,000 share buy at .90 on ETLT and I added to my shares that I had purchased at .80.  From that moment it has dropped on low volume.  Any thoughts on buying into a big purchase like that, other than that in this case it was wrong.

Quote from: 2bun on February 08, 2007, 10:21:38 AM
gm David,could you have a look at dddc for me ? New hod and +.04 @1.44 now.Thanks

Technically the trend is bearish, as you can see on the medium term, semi log scale chart below.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $42 M. The Company is a provider of integrated Voice over Internet Protocol telephony services, products, hosted solutions, and infrastructure.
- Balance sheet is acceptable, current ratio of 3.1.
- Revenues are declining over the last 3 quarters. They were $10.7 M in Q1, $9.97 M in Q2 and $8.54 M in Q3. Still, expected revenues for full year 2006 are for $39.82 M, so the price to sales ratio is about 1. EGHT's price to sales ratio is higher, at 1.78 (EGHT is also a VOIP provider).
- EPS has been somewhat incipient, barely positive, but still positive !

You know what? I think the stock is attractive at this point. The chart doesn't agree, but you know, it might change is tune.

Good luck :)

Thanks David.  What I read is IMOT.ob owns  China Equity exchange platform "chinae.com", and has 15% share in the Shenzhen Exchange, which had a growth of 40 % in trading volume in 2006 respect 2005:

From yahoo on feb. 1:

"Mr. Urianghai said, "The China Equity Exchange Platform ( http://www.chinae.com ) is a bridge, which connects regional equity exchanges around China. It breaks boundary limitations and makes cross- boundary equity exchanges possible. The China Equity Exchange Platform is a top service platform providing the best value added services to equity investors." Participants showed intense interests in the China Equity Exchange Platform. Further discussions on how to successfully implement cross-boundary equity exchanges via the Platform are continued after the round table. The business model of the China Equity Exchange Platform is well endorsed by governmental officers."

And then on feb 6:

Business Development of Shenzhen International Hi-Tech Property Right Exchange Center Accelerated in 2006
Tuesday February 6, 10:03 am ET


SHENZHEN, China, Feb. 6 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- The Intermost Corporation (OTC Bulletin Board: IMOT - News), a leading electronic online equity exchange service provider in China, is pleased to announce that its joint venture, the Shenzhen International Hi-Tech Property Rights Exchange Center (''Shenzhen Exchange''), reported a total trading volume of 45.8 billion RMB in 2006, a 40% increase over the previous year. Last year, the Shenzhen Exchange served 7,331 enterprises and renewed records in revenue and profit.
The Shenzhen Exchange ranks among the top three equity exchanges in China, as well as the best performing hi-tech equity exchange. Currently there are 160 stock companies under its depository with approximately ten billion shares. Half of them are well performing hi-tech enterprises. Ten companies have gone public on overseas stock markets, including MINDRAY MEDICAL INTL listed on the NYSE, and LAUNCH TECH, POWERLEADER, and MINGWAH HI-TECH, which all listed on the HKEX. The Shenzhen Exchange is projected to expand its depository to 2000 companies in three years' time.

To provide endless listing-eligible resources to the capital markets in China and abroad, in 2006 the Shenzhen Exchange started the program of ''Growth Road Map of Innovative Enterprises''. In only three months, the applications of sixty enterprises have been accepted. Thirty-eight of them were granted a subsidy of 20.50 million RMB, and six of them successfully went public. The ''Growth Road Map of Innovative Enterprises'' opens a green channel for hi-tech enterprises to enter the Multi-Layer Capital Market.

Mr. Xiangxiong Deng, acting CEO of the Intermost Corporation was rather pleased to witness the rapid growth of the Shenzhen Exchange. He said, ''The Chinese government has started the year 2007 with solid support for the Equity Exchange Market, and thus will welcome unprecedented opportunities. The Intermost Corporation has engaged in the equity exchange business since 2003. It's high time that we reap the harvest!''

The Intermost Corporation holds a 15% share in the Shenzhen Exchange. Mr. Deng also indicated that they retained the possibility of increasing the shareholding position in the Shenzhen Exchange, as well as the possibility of direct investment in other leading equity exchanges in China."

Quote from: oicpecnoc on February 08, 2007, 01:07:06 PM
Yesterday I saw a 130,000 share buy at .90 on ETLT and I added to my shares that I had purchased at .80.  From that moment it has dropped on low volume.  Any thoughts on buying into a big purchase like that, other than that in this case it was wrong.

ETLT.OB is taking its time correcting some short term excesses, but fundamentals are extremely attractive and the chart is still bullish (even more bullish after the recent pullback). I see the stock crossing $1 on the upside over the next couple of weeks.

SNWP.ob is up huge today. No news...I could find

Only 84,000 market cap...with revenues of 372,000.

Operating margins  are not good though??

Quote from: kslifka on February 08, 2007, 01:21:23 PM
SNWP.ob is up huge today. No news...I could find

Only 84,000 market cap...with revenues of 372,000.

Operating margins  are not good though??

Volume on that stock is less than $100 K, you don't need news to make it move 200%. The bid/ask spread is 29% at this point.

According to the balance sheet, the company is worth ($6.3 M), that is, negative $6.3 M. If stocks could be traded in negative values, SNWP.OB would be there for sure. This way it is as close to zero as it can be, but sometimes someone buys some shares, like today ... the company's market makers will probably get all the bids they can without damaging momentum, because the company probably instructed them to sell what they can to the public.

The stock can rise 500% today or close in negative territory, anything can happen. One thing looks certain. SNWP.OB is on its way to $0.0001.

Good luck :)

Hi David, I have been watching PNWIF.OB for some time, thinking about jumping in but have not yet.  The chart is absolutely on fire, they have increasing revs, and recent deals with CVS and Kodak.  Their business model has great potential to say the least.   Already know what you'll think of the chart, what's your take on the financials?  Is PNWIF on fire?

Thanks for the info nica33, the problem is:

QuoteThe Intermost Corporation has engaged in the equity exchange business since 2003.

How come with all those great news and prospects revenues declined from $3.39 M in Q1, to $1.68 M in Q2 and then to $0.28 M in Q3? That's what you need to explain to keep holding that stock.

Thanks :)

Hi David, any thoughts on XDSL?  Apparently some news today & have heard from other sources it may be getting ready to run...

NTWK looking good
Mkt cap 33 m
fwd. p/e 13.36
Rev 20 mil +
Revenue growth
2004 5749000
2005 12438000
2006 18690000
All softwares are developed in Pakistan(low cost)

Your opinion on EFSF.OB and ABAT.OB

Thank you

Hey David. I would like for you to take a look at OISI.OB. Opthalmologic Imaging Systems. They have increased net earnings and sales for the last eight quarters. Small float with free cash flow. Thanks in advance.

Quote from: TraderStar on February 08, 2007, 01:47:19 PM
Hi David, any thoughts on XDSL?  Apparently some news today & have heard from other sources it may be getting ready to run...

Hi TraderStar :)

Technically XDSL.OB is long and medium term bearish. Over the short term it has been trading in a range between $0.15 and $0.20.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $53 M. Develops and sells broadband communications products, specifically middleware and set top boxes and, in addition, provides systems integration solutions for delivery of broadcast television, video on demand, e.t.c.
- Balance sheet is quite weak, working capital is ($3.18 M). Cash is $0.
- Revenues are declining rapidly, just $975 K in Q3 2006
- Huge losses. The company lost $24 M in Q3 alone.

XDSL.OB is way, way overvalued here, my take is the stock will probably decline 80% or more over the next 12 months.

But thanks for the suggestion :)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 08, 2007, 09:25:36 AM

I've been working on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075) to put it in alphabetical order, but I'm still halfway to get the job done. Then it will be easier to find a stock on the list, and relevant comments posted on this message board about that stock.

David, I know of a flat file database that can be easily installed into a webhost's cgi-bin and then accessed from the web.  You can put in information about the stocks you cover and the users can access that info any way they want, by name, date, ranking, keyword, etc.  If you want more information let me know (I'm a webmaster in my other life & found this db several years ago, it is very stable & easy to use)

QuoteDavid, I know of a flat file database that can be easily installed into a webhost's cgi-bin and then accessed from the web.  You can put in information about the stocks you cover and the users can access that info any way they want, by name, date, ranking, keyword, etc.  If you want more information let me know (I'm a webmaster in my other life & found this db several years ago, it is very stable & easy to use)

Sure, please send me a private message with the information. Then I'll pass it on to Ramsburg for him to study the possibility (I know nothing about programming).

Thanks :)

Quote from: pompano on February 08, 2007, 01:39:17 PM
Hi David, I have been watching PNWIF.OB for some time, thinking about jumping in but have not yet.  The chart is absolutely on fire, they have increasing revs, and recent deals with CVS and Kodak.  Their business model has great potential to say the least.   Already know what you'll think of the chart, what's your take on the financials?  Is PNWIF on fire?

Hi pompano, you're right, awesome chart :o

Let's check the financials:

- Market cap is $117 M. Develops and markets digital imaging technology which connects the photofinishing retailer to its customer through a wide variety of businesses including professional and commercial photo processing labs, image content owners and targeted portal services.
- There are no liquidity problems but the balance sheet is "small", just $4.4 M in assets for a $117 M market cap seems like a lot.
- Revenue trend is strong, revenues are doubling every year. But, in fiscal 2006 they were just $3.65 M, and that puts the revenue multiple at 32, which is very, very high
- Still losing money and I see dilution in 2006.

Anyway, let's check those news:

• PhotoChannel Releases Year End, Audited Financials (http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070129/200701290369830001.html?.v=1)
CCNMatthews (Mon, Jan 29)

• PhotoChannel and Kodak's Qualex Inc. Sign Preferred Partner Agreement (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061107/0181597.html)
Market Wire (Tue, Nov 7)

My take is fundamental trends are very positive, but that's already priced in by the outrageous 32 times revenue multiple.

I would consider it on a 30% plus dip.

Thanks for the suggestion :)

for those with Gold Fever - GSS on fire on huge volume

Quote from: tireslinger on February 08, 2007, 02:21:52 PM
Hey David. I would like for you to take a look at OISI.OB. Opthalmologic Imaging Systems. They have increased net earnings and sales for the last eight quarters. Small float with free cash flow. Thanks in advance.

Hello tireslinger :)

You really need to be patient to be watching a stock like OISI.OB, there are days where it doesn't trade 1 single share. Today's volume is 7,000 shares, and that's above average ;D

Let's make some fundamental tests:

- Market cap is $46 M. Engaged in the business of designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing digital imaging systems, image enhancement and analysis software and informatics solutions for use by practitioners in the ocular health field.
- Balance sheet looks ok, with about $5.9 M in cash.
- Revenues grew steadily since 2000. I estimate about $16 M revenues for fiscal 2006.
- EPS of 3 cents for each quarter going back 7 quarters. I call this consistency :D

With annual EPS of $0.12 and the stock "trading" at $2.83, the earnings multiple is 23.5, so the stock looks to be valued somewhat above average.

OISI.OB is a stable stock, both in technical and fundamental terms. Too stable.

Thanks for the suggestion :)

Hi David, &  pompano

Re PNWIF,  it should be noted they did a reverse split 1:10 back on Nov 3, 2006, just thought you should know in case that factor wasn't already built into some of your fundamental numbers..

I used to own the stock on the Canadian exchange, but got tripped out on a dip just after the reverse split, then was away on holidays for a month so haven't got back in yet, been waiting for a pullback / consolidation ??

I don't usually like reverse splits, but it sure didn't hurt these guys.

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 08, 2007, 10:36:05 AM
Good Morning David,

Hope you had a good time yesterday.  Glad that you are back.

BLUE could you take a look.  Big Gain yesterday.  I was able to buy and sell some on yesterday's strength and rebought back again today.

Not on fire today since it's currently down 8% but would like a closer analysis

Thanks

Actually not so much fun, too many people for my taste ... also I drunk wine and champagne, so I'm with a terrible hangover today (http://mdteague.com/Flushed)

BLUE ... nice ticker symbol ... let's see about the rest.

The chart is medium and long term bearish, but short term bullish, due to yesterday's 34% rally.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $61 M. Company designs, develops, markets and distributes high end fashion jeans, apparel and accessories under the brand names Antik Denim, Yanuk, U and Taverniti So Jeans.
- Balance sheet is weak, cash is $0.
- There's no revenue trend. Revenues for the past four quarters were $51 M.
- Lost some money in Q3, but it was profitable on the previous five quarters.

The rally yesterday was made without any news out. I guess it happened because the stock was too oversold. My problem with BLUE is that I fear dilution due to the weak balance sheet.

I think BLUE is an interesting stock and its rebound will probably go further (I guess the stock will make a new high above $2.5 or so), but I see the company taking advantage of the liquidity and printing and selling some shares in the open market. They just need money fast. That will increase the market cap and will make the stock tank to former lows around $1.5.

I don't think the long term low is in, but I can be wrong. This isn't my kind of chart, but good luck :)

QuoteHi David, &  pompano

Re PNWIF,  it should be noted they did a reverse split 1:10 back on Nov 3, 2006, just thought you should know in case that factor wasn't already built into some of your fundamental numbers..

It was considered, the share count is now 26,048,359 post reverse split, but thanks for the info.

You don't like reverse splits? It depends on the situation, sometimes they're made to attract institutional investors to an already attractive fundamental story, other times they're made to further dilute shareholder's value on the way down.

But they're fundamentally and technically neutral.

David,

I said earlier I had 777,777 shares of pmed...but i added one 7 to that so its 77,777 which is a small position as opposed to the number I posted which would be reasonbly large.

Any thoughts on the roughly 20% retracement today?

Nice rebound for CECE today.  Devid I now that you already covered this one.  Could you give an update.?  Nice rebound today.  End HOD

Tecnical Analysis: STOCHASTIC and MACD "BUY POINT"
According to Stockconsulant.com : 100% Bullish
read>>>

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=CLWT&35253#ttop

Euro Tech Holdings Company Limited, through its subsidiary, Euro Tech (Far East) Limited, distributes various equipment, instruments, and supplies used in the treatment, analysis, and testing of water and wastewater in Hong Kong and the People?s Republic of China

I know there were several requests for analysis that I couldn't attend today (I pick them randomly), so please, if you're still interested in the analysis, ask for it again tomorrow.

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) was up 3.93% today to $26,475. The Portfolio is up 76.5% since inception in January 19, 2007.

I'm quite pleased with the portfolio's three current holdings and I'm not planning to sell them soon, as I let the profits run.

Thanks for your participation, see you tomorrow :)