Good morning :)
Today I won't analyze new stocks but you can post stocks on fire or analysis on specific stocks if you want.
I will be searching and discussing services and tools that can help us become better traders/investors.
That can be newsletters, technical or fundamental data services, software, trading strategies, books, online brokers, etc. Anything related to strategy and tools is welcome.
Thanks for your participation :)
hi david,
great work,
speaking of online brokers , did you try zecco.com? free trading , no commision.or if anyone has tried it please pipe up.
i use sogoinvest $3 a trade and scottrade $7 a trade . i found sogo to be ok . doesn't trade pennies , can't short or put a stop and a little slow if you want to get in or out in a hurry. i love scottrade for ease of application , the extra few bucks is worth it . i only hold xing in my sogo account at the moment so i am happy to leave it alone.
www.trade-ideas.com
Very powerful and customizable realtime scanning / filtering / researching for the active investor.
Worth a look.
My three favorite books on stock's investments are:
- Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Investment-Classics/dp/0471770884/sr=8-1/qid=1171550190/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-6599784-2405512?ie=UTF8&s=books)
- Mastering Fundamental Analysis (http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Fundamental-Analysis-Michael-Thomsett/dp/0793128730/sr=8-1/qid=1171550359/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-6599784-2405512?ie=UTF8&s=books)
- Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders (http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Wizards-Interviews-Americas/dp/0066620597/sr=8-4/qid=1171550391/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4/104-6599784-2405512?ie=UTF8&s=books)
hi david,
great work,
speaking of online brokers , did you try zecco.com? free trading , no commision.or if anyone has tried it please pipe up.
I signed up a couple of weeks ago and just finished verifying my bank info with them so I can fund the account. (They aren't that slow, I am). I don't really care for the look or the layout of the site, but what will be more important is the execution of my orders at zero cost. I will fund it this weekend and start trading next week, so I will review it after next week.
I have been using Interactive Brokers for a long time and love their service. Of course it isn't free, but most trades cost me between $1-2 each. Here is their pricing:http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/fees/commission.php?ib_entity=llc
Quotespeaking of online brokers , did you try zecco.com? free trading , no commision.or if anyone has tried it please pipe up.
I didn't. I wonder about how many times one has to call for the assistance of a live-broker:
QuoteNote
If you require the assistance of a live-broker, trades are only $19.99 for stocks and mutual funds, and $19.99 plus $.75 per contract for options.
I see trexkerry will open an account with them ... I hope it works very well.
I'm also a happy InteractiveBrokers costumer.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 09:49:41 AM
I'm also a happy InteractiveBrokers costumer.
Can you short below $5 in Interactive brokers?
hi,
thanks trexkerry . kelet us know how it goes with zecco.
maxi
Since my first language isn't english, I tried to read "Reminiscenses of a stock operator" but I couldn't :(
I like Alexander Elder "Come into my trading room". But my favorite is Nicholas Darvas "How I made 2 million in the stock market". As Setravis say "Simplicity my fellow traders" ;)
OSTE & FALC are flying again!
Quote from: AussieTrader on February 15, 2007, 09:40:15 AM
www.trade-ideas.com
Very powerful and customizable realtime scanning / filtering / researching for the active investor.
Worth a look.
I'm downloading the software for a free trial. Are you a subscriber? What's the big advantage of the service? Thanks Aussie.
whoever mentioned PRW yesterday, Thanks! Its still on fire today!
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 09:56:14 AM
Since my first language isn't english, I tried to read "Reminiscenses of a stock operator" but I couldn't :(
I like Alexander Elder "Come into my trading room". But my favorite is Nicholas Darvas "How I made 2 million in the stock market". As Setravis say "Simplicity my fellow traders" ;)
You need to read Reminiscences, it reads very well in English (I'm a foreigner too). I also have "Come into my trading room". I liked it at first, but not anymore.
Let me note that Nicholas Darvas here, the title is suggestive :)
I would have recommended stockcharts.com before today to get intraday data, but its 10:11 am right now and I still cant get a scan on intraday data >:(
Quote from: mbaugh on February 15, 2007, 10:04:43 AM
whoever mentioned PRW yesterday, Thanks! Its still on fire today!
Yep...PRW is still on fire and I still never bought. congrats though.
If you have more than 25.000 in your Scottrade account, it includes Trade Ideas.
For scan stocks I use the MSN Money stock screener. It is delayed but I like a lot.
Quote from: Terliso on February 15, 2007, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 09:49:41 AM
I'm also a happy InteractiveBrokers costumer.
Can you short below $5 in Interactive brokers?
Yes you can, given that there are available shares to lend. But you can't trade PK and you can't short OTCBB traded stocks.
JADE ;D
www.Stockfetcher.com intraday or end-of-day stock screening. the cheapest they got is $8.95 monthly.
My favorite there is the price scanning, a very powerful tool. ;)
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 10:16:16 AM
If you have more than 25.000 in your Scottrade account, it includes Trade Ideas.
For scan stocks I use the MSN Money stock screener. It is delayed but I like a lot.
It's a pity Scottrade doesn't accept foreign costumers, how silly is that?
MSN Money stock screener? Can you provide a link for that?
Thanks :)
QuoteQuote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:08:36 AM
You need to read Reminiscences, it reads very well in English (I'm a foreigner too). I also have "Come into my trading room". I liked it at first, but not anymore.
Let me note that Nicholas Darvas here, the title is suggesting :)
I asked my parents for Reminiscences and Come into my Trading room for Christmas :D this year and have finished Come into my Trading Room. That book is mostly for playing the natural ups and downs of a stock (the channels). What I don't like is that if you follow this short term strategy, you would miss out on major moves.
The one thing I did like and I have been trying with some success is the idea of the double divergence. This is where you find a stock that set a low, trended higher, and has now set even lower lows but with much less volume. If you use the MACD Histogram and the "Force Index" that the book describes (available on stockcharts for free) you can look for stocks that have set new lows but without as much conviction as the previous lows. The theory is that the selling is just about done and a major reversal is about to occur. (you can do this with stocks at new highs too, everything is opposite and you are supposed to short there)
I have been running filters on stocks within 15% of their 52 week lows but were up over the past week. I then look at those stocks for the double divergence in the chart and take a position. I like to see the rise the week before because this may indicate the bottom is put in. I set a stop below the previous low and try to ride out the profits.
I have only been doing this since January and have had some success so far outperfoming the S & P but not outperforming David ::). Stocks that I currently own that had this pattern include OTVI, CPWM, CREE, and CTXS. Not going to make me rich I am afraid but it has been fun finding my own stocks :)
Quotewww.Stockfetcher.com intraday or end-of-day stock screening. the cheapest they got is $8.95 monthly.
Added to my favorites. Do they have a free trial? Can't find any button for that.
I'm addicted to Metastock and I always thought I should subscribe to eSignal to feed Metastock with live data. The problem is they only provide live data for 1000 or so stocks, or only the selected ones, and that way I couldn't make explorers to search the entire market.
Quote from: Terliso on February 15, 2007, 10:18:21 AM
www.Stockfetcher.com intraday or end-of-day stock screening. the cheapest they got is $8.95 monthly.
My favorite there is the price scanning, a very powerful tool. ;)
I tried that for a month, liked it a lot, just didnt fully understand how to use it at the time. But recently I found their user manual, it looks like this scanner is the most customizable I have seen. In fact, considering that stockcharts.com isnt working now, I am going to go renew my subscription to stockfetcher right now!
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:17:14 AM
Quote from: Terliso on February 15, 2007, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 09:49:41 AM
I'm also a happy InteractiveBrokers costumer.
Can you short below $5 in Interactive brokers?
Yes you can, given that there are available shares to lend. But you can't trade PK and you can't short OTCBB traded stocks.
I've wanted to know about shorting stocks under $5 for a while. Thanks for that info. How much are trades with Interactive brokers?
SPAR ;D
I too am with Interactive Brokers, cheap option trading too and I trade pink sheet stocks with them, also canadian stocks. They also do forex and futures and it is all in the same account.
I have a whole website with (free) information for new traders, http://traderstar.com, lots of info there on various services I have tried.
I need to update it with more information on this site :) :)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 10:16:16 AM
If you have more than 25.000 in your Scottrade account, it includes Trade Ideas.
For scan stocks I use the MSN Money stock screener. It is delayed but I like a lot.
What search criteria do you use for this. I am looking at it right now and since you have come up with some great ones recently, I would be most interest. In addition to the criteria you generally set, do you look through each company that comes up and what are you looking for at that time?
QuoteI asked my parents for Reminiscences and Come into my Trading room for Christmas :D
I would read Reminiscences 5 times and forget about Come into my trading room, except the Money Management part.
QuoteI have only been doing this since January and have had some success so far outperfoming the S & P but not outperforming David ::). Stocks that I currently own that had this pattern include OTVI, CPWM, CREE, and CTXS. Not going to make me rich I am afraid but it has been fun finding my own stocks :)
Sure, you should do that, but I don't think that method will work for long you know?
I think Reminiscences and Mastering Fundamental Analysis is a great combination.
I also read Trading for a Living from Alexander Elder. It's a fun read, but it doesn't help a trader in his early days. It didn't make me go in the right way. It is more of a commercial book than anything else. Dr Alexander looks like a 3 year old (in trading experience terms).
I use Prophet.net (http://prophet.net) with great results. The real time scan is accurate and quite fast. The best part is I can view hundreds of charts on one page to quickly identify real trends and quickly eliminate the junk. It lets me create profiles for the scans and customize and tweak as I go.
I have found that the KISS method works best (Keep It Simple Stupid) and the following scan modified for volume works fine. A scan for $Volume would be better but I'll get there...
I change the volume threshhold as the day moves on...
-----------
• Exchanges: NYSE AMEX NASDAQ(NM,SC,OTC,BB)
• Last Price is between 0.50 and 50
• Today's Volume is at least 50,000 shares
• Today's Open Price is at least 1% higher than the Previous High and the Last Price is at least 2% higher than the Open Price
• Market Cap is between 50,000,000 and 500,000,000
-----------
And I love MEDVED quotetracker. It's the best for track your protfolio in real time. Excellent charts, very customizable and a lot of indicators.
ASPV is breaking out ! It has been a Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) holding for long, I almost can't believe my eyes, as I've waited for so long!
The only truly profitable and safe biotech with less than $1 B market cap out there.
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 10:36:14 AM
And I love MEDVED quotetracker. It's the best for track your protfolio in real time. Excellent charts, very customizable and a lot of indicators.
Agree, quotetracker is great .. and considering it is also free!
I used Worden for several years, it does have very customizable scans for finding stocks with technical setups (http://www.worden.com) I used the EOD subscription only, the intraday one not worth the price and all those clubs are very distracting.
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 10:36:14 AM
And I love MEDVED quotetracker. It's the best for track your protfolio in real time. Excellent charts, very customizable and a lot of indicators.
Quotetracker.com is free...free real-time, free level II, real-time sales data, free real-time intraday charts, etc
Ok, I've been discovering great technical scanning services. And what about fundamental analysis services?
I think making a quick fundamental analysis of the stock improves the chances of success by a lot, as opposed to just going with the chart. It improves the win loss ratio and the staying power.
If you buy by the chart, you need to sell by the chart, and that keeps changing over the short term, it is so extenuating. And you know what? My experience tells me it doesn't bring any money over the long term.
No one has mentioned http://www.clearstation.com yet .. they also do fundies, but I cannot judge how good their info is.
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
Quotetracker works great with Fidelity Investments. It works great and is free. As a backup and sanity check I use Yahoo realtime quotes at $135 per year. I used Money.net for streaming quotes previously but ditched them for performance reasons.
Fidelity customers who trade at least 36 times in a 12 month span can use their Active Trader Pro platform. Works great and the trading is wired directly to the exchange floor. Executions are sub second in speed. Amazing service but $12 per trade.
XDSL has been seeing some action the past couple of days .. I know little to nothing about the company, but sharpeyed.com has been recommending it for a week now and they are usually pretty good at spotting the (technical) moves.
I scan stocks with volume at least 5 (early in the morning I use 3) times the average volume las quarter; with market cap > 30 M and avg daily vol last month > 50.000.
I think the key is use the avg vol las quarter, because it shows a big breakout in a long time.
David do you know about http://www.vectorvest.com? They put quite a bit of emphasis on fundies although I have never explored their fundamental charts I know you can do elaborate scans based on fundamentals. They charge $9.95 for a 5 week trial, which you can double to another 5 weeks if you ask them for more time (without paying more) then they charge $59.95 a month after that.
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 10:56:45 AM
I scan stocks with volume at least 5 (early in the morning I use 3) times the average volume las quarter; with market cap > 30 M and avg daily vol last month > 50.000.
I think the key is use the avg vol las quarter, because it shows a big breakout in a long time.
What service do you use for your scan nica?
I also change my volume constraint on my scans as I go through the day, but I never thought of comparing to last quarter, I have been comparing to the 100 sma of volume. That is one good thing about stockcharts.com when its working, it can check sma and ema of volume (I forget if stockfetcher.com could do that).
Here's what Livermore had to say about pure technicians:
«I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read. The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke.»
MSN Money screener is more fundamental than technical. It uses only 50 MA and 200 MA, volume and price. The other indicators are kind of fundamental
Make sure to sign up for free and get the java download for MSN stock screener deluxe. Its one of the best free stock scanner out there, You can do lots of fundamental, some technical analysis, and many other scans etc. MSN Money also has great commentary and some good stock pickers like Jim Jubak.
Here is a great article on using the MSN Money stock screener deluxe with a great fundmental analysis scan settings. These scan settings turned up IMOS among others fundmentally sound stocks that all have been gaining.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SimpleStrategies/9ValueStocksForImpatientInvestors.aspx?page=1
Here is a summary of the settings.
*The price-to-book ratio less than 1.7-1.5 (1.7 if you want to see more stocks, 1.5 if you want more refined results)
Screening parameter: Price/Book Value <=1.5
*Cash flow ratio must be above .1 indicating positive cash flow
Screening parameter: 12-Month Income: Cont. Ops. >= 0.1
Screening parameter: Price/Cash Flow Ratio >= 0.1
*Want to find stocks with improving finanicals
Screening parameter: Return on Assets Increased Since <In the Last Year>
Screening parameter: Debt to Equity Ratio Decreased Since <In the Last Year>
Screening parameter: Net Profit Margin Increased Since <In the Last Year>
*Picks must be over 50dma and 200dma averages (picked 5% above the averages, this can be tweaked to show more results etc.)
Screening parameter: Last Price >= 1.05*50-day Moving Average
Screening parameter: Last Price >= 1.05*200-day Moving Average
* Two last filters to improve results
Screening parameter: Return on Assets >= 5
Screening parameter: Last Price >= 3 (This can be tweaked to lower number to add in more results in penny stocks. This was added because a lot of sub 3 dollar stocks have problems)
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 11:00:14 AM
David do you know about http://www.vectorvest.com? They put quite a bit of emphasis on fundies although I have never explored their fundamental charts I know you can do elaborate scans based on fundamentals. They charge $9.95 for a 5 week trial, which you can double to another 5 weeks if you ask them for more time (without paying more) then they charge $59.95 a month after that.
Never heard of it before. I've been browsing the website and their products and the service seems focused on technicals, not fundamentals (although I guess their analysis also uses fundamental analysis).
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 11:10:55 AM
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 11:00:14 AM
David do you know about http://www.vectorvest.com? They put quite a bit of emphasis on fundies although I have never explored their fundamental charts I know you can do elaborate scans based on fundamentals. They charge $9.95 for a 5 week trial, which you can double to another 5 weeks if you ask them for more time (without paying more) then they charge $59.95 a month after that.
Never heard of it before. I've been browsing the website and their products and the service seems focused on technicals, not fundamentals (although I guess their analysis also uses fundamental analysis).
They provide 9 free stock reports for an email account. Try asking for a free report of any stock you want. You'll see they combine both fundamental and technical. It's very good.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:52:49 AM
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
I was thinking that just last night! It would be so easy to do, all the data is there, computers are made for graphing, there MUST be a service like that somewhere!
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 11:06:29 AM
MSN Money screener is more fundamental than technical. It uses only 50 MA and 200 MA, volume and price. The other indicators are kind of fundamental
Thanks for the info of that screener nica33 :)
But what I would like to have is a service that enables me to quickly evaluate the fundamentals of a stock, the same way everybody does with a technical chart.
I think traders waste too much time and emotions looking at intraday quotes (it's such a vice, it took me years to release myself from it).
Fundamentals can be used for short term trading too, they're not just for long term trading. For example, when news or results are out, the guys that make those calculus faster and with more accuracy will be head and shoulders above the crowd.
quick FA overview:
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&btn=sf_ok&symbol=syx&sf_ok=OK
cheers
O.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:52:49 AM
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
Try MSN money :D
Quote from: la-onda on February 15, 2007, 11:20:02 AM
quick FA overview:
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&btn=sf_ok&symbol=syx&sf_ok=OK
cheers
O.
It looks cool, but fundamental graphs are updated only until 2004, and that's too old.
Thanks :)
I also use Medved Quote Tracker. I believe Scottrade bought their software and is currently using it.
I use stockfetcher for scans but quotes are delayed. Would love to see them get intraday data. Would be willing to pay extra for that. Very user-friendly.
I am looking into a new discount broker Just2Trades. $2.95 commission.
BTW .. NTTL looking very nice today .. holding .40 position and SOEN also looking good
Hello David,
This my first post on this board. I have been lurking for a few weeks and am extremely pleased with the knowledge and civility of all here, especially David. Since it is a slow day I thought I would provide a bit of humour.
NEWS FLASH: EVCC up 23% today on breaking news! EVCC has filed for an extension for filing form 10-Q
;D ;D ;D ;D ::)
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 11:20:31 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:52:49 AM
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
Try MSN money :D
Nica, how do you get the bar graphs to appear? Thanks
David, I am wondering if you could suggest your "Top 5" things that you would recommend checking on a stocks fundamentals in order to quickly weed out possible losers from a given stock scan.
For example, these days I first check the daily and weekly chart to ensure bullishness in terms of volume, etc. then I cehck the balance sheet first and scan the balance and current ratio, and if these look really bad I might just move to the next stock. If they look OK I will go on to look at the income statement, and so on.
nica33, let me send you a kiss :-* (I hope you're not a man - if you are, you should change that nickname hehe)
Your MSN Money tip has many interesting tools, but the most beautiful that I got at first sight, and that will save me a lot of calculus and work for every analysis, is the following 10 year summary:
Movie Star, Inc.: Financial Statement (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=MSI&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
Look at that historical table with the number of shares outstanding !!! I used to divide net income by EPS each year to get to that table. This way one can quickly see if there was historical dilution or not.
Just great, let me improve your rating by ... 10 points!
http://www.smallcapcenter.com/tools_tools.asp
My favorite free tools
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 11:34:54 AM
nica33, let me send you a kiss :-* (I hope you're not a man - if you are, you should change that nickname hehe)
Your MSN Money tip has many interesting tools, but the most beautiful that I got at first sight, and that will save me a lot of calculus and work for every analysis, is the following 10 year summary:
Movie Star, Inc.: Financial Statement (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=MSI&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
Look at that historical table with the number of shares outstanding !!! I used to divide net income by EPS each year to get to that table. This way one can quickly see if there was historical dilution or not.
Just great, let me improve your rating by ... 10 points!
Don't worry ......I'm a woman ;D
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 15, 2007, 11:33:51 AM
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 11:20:31 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:52:49 AM
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
Try MSN money :D
Nica, how do you get the bar graphs to appear? Thanks
Click on financial results ont the left menu. That's all
I was playing around with the filters and losened up the 200dma and 50dma and came up with SBSA. Which looks great fundementally and is actually working on breaking through the 50dma today.
nica is a woman??? thats hot i want you :-*
Hi DAVID what di you think about CMBX???
Good trading idea or SCAM????
My preferred sites/tools for trade:
1. 3stocksonfire.org ;D
2. moneycentral.msn.com (stock screener and fundamental view)
3. Nasdaq.com (to check pre and after hours movers)
4. Medved quotetracker (portfolio, charts and a lot of links to get info at a glance. Download at quotetracker.com)
5. My broker
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 11:48:04 AM
Quote from: kpusan63 on February 15, 2007, 11:33:51 AM
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 11:20:31 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 10:52:49 AM
www.alphatrade.com has that great "Fundamentals" service that you see me using in my videos. It costs just $5 a month. The problem is it comes as an add on to the general service which costs about $40 a month.
I would just love a service that, instead of showing those tables, it showed historical fundamental graphs on an annual and quarterly basis. To quickly grasp the fundamental trends, you see?
I should make a company to develop a service like that ... but I have other things to do ;D
Try MSN money :D
Nica, how do you get the bar graphs to appear? Thanks
Click on financial results ont the left menu. That's all
Thanks .. I had to download lastest software changes. Now I see it
It looks like CPNE is recovering WOW ;)
Quote from: tokyopua on February 15, 2007, 11:34:13 AM
David, I am wondering if you could suggest your "Top 5" things that you would recommend checking on a stocks fundamentals in order to quickly weed out possible losers from a given stock scan.
For example, these days I first check the daily and weekly chart to ensure bullishness in terms of volume, etc. then I cehck the balance sheet first and scan the balance and current ratio, and if these look really bad I might just move to the next stock. If they look OK I will go on to look at the income statement, and so on.
Ok, here are the Top 5 Fundamental Tests to do before buying a stock, by
David Randolph (me ;D):
1) Check the share count on an historical basis. If it has been growing a lot, it doesn't matter how great the news are, probably the company will dilute shareholders value and the stock will fall back after the rally. A constantly rising share count means the company is not working on the shareholder's behalf, but on its own behalf (those are two different things). nica33 already showed us the historical share count numbers can be found at MSN Money. The exceptions to this is if the share count rose due to acquisitions. In that case there's no dilution. One needs to compare the share count evolution with revenues. Rising number of shares outstanding without correspondent rising revenues means dilution. What I like to see is declining share count (when the company is buying back its own shares), stable or growing just a bit year after year.
2) The balance sheet study. You need to compare the total current assets with the total current liabilities. The ratio between those two numbers should be higher than 2 and not below 1 (if it is below 1 it means working capital is negative, and that means the company has short term liquidity needs and will have to dilute shareholder's value to survive). As for the total current assets, you don't want it to be composed of just receivables and inventories, there should also be some cash.
3) The revenue and gross margin study. The market pays more for a company with growing revenues than for one with declining or erratic revenues. A strong and positive revenue trend is a good fundamental background for a stock to keep rising. But also check the gross margin. It should be high and stable. If sales are rising but the gross margin is declining (gross margin is the operating profit/sales ratio) the market will attach a lower multiple to the company, it is being less efficient. This can be useful when, for example, there's news out, revenue growth was 50%, the stock is up 20%, but you see gross margin declined five percentage points ... probably that's the short term high for the stock. Revenue growth make good headlines but many times the underlying gross margin is hidden.
4) EPS and net profit margin. Everybody knows how to make a quick earnings multiple test. You just multiply that quarter's EPS by four and see what's the full year earnings multiple (but don't forget to see if there's seasonality). The market average is about 16, so if it is below that it looks undervalued, above that it looks overvalued. But multiples also need to be considered in connection with growth rates, so it's not that simple. The best of both worlds is a low multiple and a high growth rate combined, that will probably make the stock run a lot further, as it looks undervalued in a double way, if you know what I mean. The market pays a high price for stocks with a high net profit margin (net profit margin is the ratio between net income and sales). These stocks have the highest potential. For example Google and CPNE.OB have very fat net profit margins. On the other side of the coin, if EPS grows, say, from $0.20 to $0.30, but revenue growth was 100% ... well, net profit margin is deteriorating, and that's not good.
5) Comparison with the company's industry. Of course, all these ratios should be considered in comparison to the company's competitors, but this leads to a very, very hard work. My hope is that by studying many, many stocks, someday I'll know their ratios more or less by memory and I'll be a fast machine at recognizing opportunities. Yahoo has some industry numbers at its "competitor's" link, but I'm afraid many times those numbers are not accurate. I also like to read just a bit about what is the company's business model and market potential. This can be important because, for example, if the company is a niche player, a lot of growth might even depress its valuation, because the market will think: "there's no more room for growth in this niche".
How to do all this in just 3 minutes? Tough job, but it sure increases the chance of picking the best of those 10 stocks you got in your technical filter ...
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 12:06:48 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on February 15, 2007, 11:34:13 AM
David, I am wondering if you could suggest your "Top 5" things that you would recommend checking on a stocks fundamentals in order to quickly weed out possible losers from a given stock scan.
For example, these days I first check the daily and weekly chart to ensure bullishness in terms of volume, etc. then I cehck the balance sheet first and scan the balance and current ratio, and if these look really bad I might just move to the next stock. If they look OK I will go on to look at the income statement, and so on.
Ok, here are the Top 5 Fundamental Tests to do before buying a stock, by David Randolph (me ;D):
David nice very nice!!!!!! I'll print it. I need to have it always on hand
David is building so much great karma in this lifetime .. next time he can probably be anything he wants ;D ;D ;D
Seriously, the first person I have met online who seems genuinely focused on helping others succeed as well without underlying agendas...
QuoteDavid nice very nice!!!!!! I'll print it. I need to have it always on hand
Thanks nica33. Watch out because I edited the post, there were some things missing and some grammatical errors (I'm sure there are plenty, still).
The MSN scanner is remarkably similar to the one in VectorVest however VV charges $60 a month (after the trial). VV does have some proprietary indicators and may have others more sophisticated .. but I was amazed to see how similar they are... great information today, another sterling idea David!!
XDSL is definitely breaking out but its fundies look bad so must be just news driven.
QuoteSeriously, the first person I have met online who seems genuinely focused on helping others succeed as well without underlying agendas...
Sorry to disappoint you Traderstar, but you need to keep looking for that first encounter, I have an agenda :-[
I'm interested in building another valuable service to the 3 Stocks on Fire Premium service. That is disclosed in the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0).
I hope to increase the number of premium subscribers to 3 Stocks with this free access message board. It has been working well and I'll keep doing it everyday, as I work 14 hours a day.
But my conscious is clean because I know that the 3 Stocks Premium service is probably the best of its kind out there, since I've tried several others. It allows people to sit back, just follow sound recommendations and make an above average return on their investments. I never turn my back to a losing position as I update the analysis on all holdings everyday.
And I have another hidden agenda. My plan is to launch an hedge fund in the future (although I'll keep working at 3 stocks) and I need to learn as much as I can before I turn 35 (the launching date). Therefore I need to talk to as many people and get as many knowledge that I can get before jumping into managing millions.
Well, enough of me, let's move on ... :)
Quote from: MrChina on February 15, 2007, 11:57:26 AM
Hi DAVID what di you think about CMBX???
Good trading idea or SCAM????
That's not a valid ticker symbol MrChina. Anyway, today is different, we're discussing strategies and tools. Have a nice day :)
QuoteThanks .. I had to download lastest software changes. Now I see it
I also don't see those graphs. Isn't MSN Money a website? Why is software needed? Where to download the latest version? I want to see the fundamental graphs too.
Thanks :)
onsm on fire on news
David, what is the difference between shares outstanding and float?
Try this site as well.
Chart gives idea as to what kind of buying is taking place, buying or selling pressure. Also has links to get some fund..
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 12:45:28 PM
QuoteThanks .. I had to download lastest software changes. Now I see it
I also don't see those graphs. Isn't MSN Money a website? Why is software needed? Where to download the latest version? I want to see the fundamental graphs too.
Thanks :)
Click on this link http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
It should prompt for download (I guess). Each time you erase your internet temporary files, you need to reinstall it. But it takes seconds
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 12:48:53 PM
David, what is the difference between shares outstanding and float?
Well, here's the definition for float:
«The number of shares of a security available for trading by the public. A company can have 20 million shares outstanding and only 7 million float. A stock with low-float means there is a limited supply of shares, which can often make a stock more volatile.»
I couldn't care less about the float. I pay attention to the market cap, which is given by multiplying the number of shares outstanding by the share price.
When appraising some news impact or making fundamental ratios or whatever in fundamental analysis, you always need to use the market cap, not the float.
The float is meaningless.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 12:36:22 PM
QuoteSeriously, the first person I have met online who seems genuinely focused on helping others succeed as well without underlying agendas...
Sorry to disappoint you Traderstar, but you need to keep looking for that first encounter, I have an agenda :-[
Those aren't the agenda's I meant ... of course you are building a following using a free "leader" which can - and should - lead to all sorts of good things for you down the road.
What I was referring to are people you find everywhere who pretend to be helping others (especially inexperienced traders) find good stock picks, when they are actually loading up in advance or shorting on the pop. I knew one in the Worden chat clubs who gave all sorts of "free" advice and got a huge number of people believing in him. He then used their buying power to drive up a stocks price while he bought puts and made a killing when the stock fell again. It took me awhile to figure it out .. but that & other incidents scared me away from message boards and chat rooms for 2 years .. until I found OTCBB, then this one.
I also have paid upwards of $200 per month for membership to services that had absolutely nothing to offer except slick-talking 'gurus' who promised piles of money.
You're a breath of fresh air, and when you achieve your 'agenda', you will still sleep soundly at night. That is priceless. :D:D
QuoteClick on this link http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
It should prompt for download (I guess). Each time you erase your internet temporary files, you need to reinstall it. But it takes seconds
It didn't prompt to anything, but it's another great link, worth 2 more rating points :)
I am settting up nica's criteria in the scanner and am stuck with this:
Screening parameter: Return on Assets Increased Since <In the Last Year>
I see Return on assets for the first box, >= for the second box, but what do I put in the third box? (<in the last year>)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:00:10 PM
QuoteClick on this link http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
It should prompt for download (I guess). Each time you erase your internet temporary files, you need to reinstall it. But it takes seconds
It didn't prompt to anything, but it's another great link, worth 2 more rating points :)
In the bottom of that screen, it appears:
Supercharge your search
Upgrade to the more powerful, easy-to-use
Deluxe Stock Screener
click in the link, download the software and you'll get the deluxe stock screener, and you will be able to see the financial info with graphs.
QuoteWhat I was referring to are people you find everywhere who pretend to be helping others (especially inexperienced traders) find good stock picks, when they are actually loading up in advance or shorting on the pop. I knew one in the Worden chat clubs who gave all sorts of "free" advice and got a huge number of people believing in him. He then used their buying power to drive up a stocks price while he bought puts and made a killing when the stock fell again. It took me awhile to figure it out .. but that & other incidents scared me away from message boards and chat rooms for 2 years .. until I found OTCBB, then this one.
Yep, I know the type very well. Only someone trading with little capital will even bother to do something like that. Trying to move stocks with talk beyond a few minutes is a waste of time, besides being morally wrong. I write about stocks and other investments for people since March 1999 and I guess I've only done that once ... and it was a shame. I was trying to pump a stock (the only PK I've ever bought) because I genuinely thought fundamentals were great.
But as soon as I saw the stock wasn't able to rise on incredibly positive press releases I wrote that I was selling the stock (it was about 5 or 10% above when I recommended everyone to buy it) and that I saw the risk of it falling 99% to $0.0001 as the company was looking to dilute shareholders value.
The stock was IBCX.PK and it happened, it fell from $0.0070 to $0.0001 in a couple of months. Everybody in the Premium service knows the story. It was a bit of a shame, but since I told people I was selling it wasn't so bad ...
QuoteI also have paid upwards of $200 per month for membership to services that had absolutely nothing to offer except slick-talking 'gurus' who promised piles of money.
Well, it's a tough job. But since I have 8 years of experience doing it (not in the US) I think I'll do ok. I try to keep expectations low and deliver above average results. That has been happening and I'm happy.
I know that there are other websites outthere, like for example www.peterleeds.com that have 15,000 subscribers and their service can only be a "fraud" (how to put 15,000 people in a penny stock, and recommend two new ones every week? What about the old ones that go down? They are forgotten) because they know how to sell their product very well and spend more than $500,000 in Google ad sense a year.
3 Stocks has just 141 subscribers, for now. We're not looking for much more. And we have all the time in the world to grow this business our way.
Anyway, let's move on ... since Ramsburg is on vacations I have nobody to talk about these issues ... but I'm more interested in stocks and stock trading strategies.
Thanks for your kind words Traderstar :)
QuoteIn the bottom of that screen, it appears:
Supercharge your search
Upgrade to the more powerful, easy-to-use
Deluxe Stock Screener
click in the link, download the software and you'll get the deluxe stock screener, and you will be able to see the financial info with graphs.
Nope, I don't have that on my link. Strange stuff.
HI David,
I have noticed that on occasion there are very large blocks traded afterhours, often on stocks that are moving. How should this be interpeted?
Quote from: ravenquork on February 15, 2007, 01:27:55 PM
HI David,
I have noticed that on occasion there are very large blocks traded afterhours, often on stocks that are moving. How should this be interpeted?
Well, that's after hours trading, that runs from 4 pm ET to 6:30 pm ET as you probably know. After hours trading can be active due to news and people that want to react quickly to them.
As for very large blocks ... well, they can be funds selling shares to one another at a combined price, and they do it after hours on the quiet so that the transaction doesn't get messed up by the regular market activity.
Overall I don't pay attention to the after hours and I never place trades there.
nica33, remember my question for you on IMOT.OB? You never answered it, but I hope you sold the stock, as it fell what, 60% in a few days? :o
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:24:31 PM
QuoteIn the bottom of that screen, it appears:
Supercharge your search
Upgrade to the more powerful, easy-to-use
Deluxe Stock Screener
click in the link, download the software and you'll get the deluxe stock screener, and you will be able to see the financial info with graphs.
Nope, I don't have that on my link. Strange stuff.
David, it took me a lot of clicking around to find the right place. On the investment page, in column at left is a link that says stock screener. When you click that, at the bottom of next page is a very small link that says deluxe stock screener. When you click on that, you have to sign up for MSN first, then it takes you back where you can download the deluxe stock screener.
If your browser does not support the platform, you will get a different screen when you click on the first 'stock screener' link. I tried it on my Mac and just got a screen with a simple screener on it .. but not the deluxe one.
Let me know if you can make it work, and if not what browser you are using.
this is the main screener that I use. Pretty simple... Today I like SSYS, SPAR and of course JADE. I had SSYS in the past, it was a good one, then.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:34:52 PM
nica33, remember my question for you on IMOT.OB? You never answered it, but I hope you sold the stock, as it fell what, 60% in a few days? :o
Yes, I sold it. The OTCBB stocks scare me. Look PMED for example, another big fall. I'm starting to learn a little about them from you. Now, I only have CPNE.ob.
nica, what are your parameters for the above results? I can see some, but not all...
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:42:40 PM
nica, what are your parameters for the above results? I can see some, but not all...
Those are all. You can change and customize them. I don't like to limit the market capitalization because I have found excellent mid and big caps too
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:36:35 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:24:31 PM
QuoteIn the bottom of that screen, it appears:
Supercharge your search
Upgrade to the more powerful, easy-to-use
Deluxe Stock Screener
click in the link, download the software and you'll get the deluxe stock screener, and you will be able to see the financial info with graphs.
Nope, I don't have that on my link. Strange stuff.
David, it took me a lot of clicking around to find the right place. On the investment page, in column at left is a link that says stock screener. When you click that, at the bottom of next page is a very small link that says deluxe stock screener. When you click on that, you have to sign up for MSN first, then it takes you back where you can download the deluxe stock screener.
If your browser does not support the platform, you will get a different screen when you click on the first 'stock screener' link. I tried it on my Mac and just got a screen with a simple screener on it .. but not the deluxe one.
Let me know if you can make it work, and if not what browser you are using.
That's it. It would have take a lot of time for me to write this!!! ;)
QuoteOn the investment page, in column at left is a link that says stock screener.
This one I got.
QuoteWhen you click that, at the bottom of next page is a very small link that says deluxe stock screener.
No, I don't have any small "deluxe stock screener" link . Let me delete the cookies and do other of that stuff ... how strange.
You guys want to use the deluxe stock screener its a great free tool. Clear your cookies that might work.
Also try signing up for a free hotmail account. I believe you have to sign into msn passport system (using a hotmail account to access the free deluxe stock picker).
Quote from: nica33 on February 15, 2007, 01:51:56 PM
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:36:35 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:24:31 PM
QuoteIn the bottom of that screen, it appears:
Supercharge your search
Upgrade to the more powerful, easy-to-use
Deluxe Stock Screener
click in the link, download the software and you'll get the deluxe stock screener, and you will be able to see the financial info with graphs.
Nope, I don't have that on my link. Strange stuff.
David, it took me a lot of clicking around to find the right place. On the investment page, in column at left is a link that says stock screener. When you click that, at the bottom of next page is a very small link that says deluxe stock screener. When you click on that, you have to sign up for MSN first, then it takes you back where you can download the deluxe stock screener.
If your browser does not support the platform, you will get a different screen when you click on the first 'stock screener' link. I tried it on my Mac and just got a screen with a simple screener on it .. but not the deluxe one.
Let me know if you can make it work, and if not what browser you are using.
That's it. It would have take a lot of time for me to write this!!! ;)
David do you use Internet explorer? This site is from Microsoft. Maybe if you're using other it could be no compatible
With all this information out there being shared with one another, it's any wonder why there are brokers are out there. A majority know less about stocks, fundamentals and technicals than anyone in this thread. nica33, i see you use a broker a #5 in your list a page or 2 ago, why did you put them down?
This is by far the best site out there for your money, hands down. I used to use brokers and their knowledge is novice at best compared to this site. I have only been a solidly active trader for a few months now and I have a long way to go.
Geee, when I cleaned up cookies I saw how many times non premium members get the "3 Stocks on Fire Premium" banner, that's too much, I need to talk to Ramsburg to reduce it.
First of all let me change my signature ... let's see.
By the way, still no "Deluxe Stock Screener" link. But nevermind, I'm very happy with that shares outstanding list and other stuff that I got here today.
The "Deluxe Stock Screener" link only shows up for me when I use IE browser. It doesn't show in Firefox, so that s/w may only be available for use in IE.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 02:02:09 PM
By the way, still no "Deluxe Stock Screener" link. But nevermind, I'm very happy with that shares outstanding list and other stuff that I got here today.
You're going to love the rest of the stuff .. so let's see if we can help you get it (it is amazingly similar to what VectorVest offers for $60/month .. this is a real find nica & nullzero!)
I am using Maxthon which is like a slicker, smaller footprint cover for MSIE. I had no problem accessing the java download once I found my way through the links. On my Macintosh however, the links were not there. Are you using MSIE and if so, the latest version? If you are using Firefox or Opera, let me know as I have both of those and can try it to see if they are different.
Otherwise the problem may be that you must sign up for the MSN account (unless you already have a .NET passport. You must be signed in to MSN to download the java deluxe screener.
If you are not even seeing the link, nor given the option to sign up with MSN, that indicates a browser compatibility problem.
Maybe this will help. This is the direct link to the download page:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/controls/cabx.asp?Redir=True&target=http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
QuoteDavid do you use Internet explorer? This site is from Microsoft. Maybe if you're using other it could be no compatible
Right on nica !
I use Firefox, that's why I had no link. With IE it works perfectly. Thanks a lot!
As a female trader, you remind me of Linda Bradford Raschke, have you ever heard of her? Do you trade for a living or for a hobby? In which country do you live? I'm curious :)
David (and others) if you prefer Firefox to MSIE (and who doesn't?) try using Maxthon, http://www.maxthon.com which does everything MSIE does and more without the security problems and taking up less resources. I have never had a problem accessing sites with Maxthon and the tabs are great :) :)
Quote from: bungee01 on February 15, 2007, 02:08:18 PM
The "Deluxe Stock Screener" link only shows up for me when I use IE browser. It doesn't show in Firefox, so that s/w may only be available for use in IE.
Yes, I have firefox and It doesn't show it.
Msn money has the best tools and info of all the other market portal sites. The only slight downside is its a little more confusing to navigate compared to yahoo and the others. Now its time to come up with some creative screener settings for the MSN deluxe screener. If you use this to find a sector or a group of stocks with good fundamentals, can then go into further analysis with a indepth TA of each stock.
QuoteYes, I sold it. The OTCBB stocks scare me. Look PMED for example, another big fall. I'm starting to learn a little about them from you. Now, I only have CPNE.ob.
Yep PMED had a second leg rally but it didn't took it so high as the first. I hope rickjust and ... I can't recall his name, sorry, sold it.
And CPNE.OB looks to be the best, although some people are doubtful that their service is worth anything. My take is, there are many services outthere that aren't good, but because of the specific way they sell, they're worth a lot for investors.
It's just the way things work. For example, IIG sells a software that is practically worthless (because you can download a similar software free from the internet), for $6,000 a piece and the market rewards the company with a $256 M market cap, because the fact is, they sell it and reap great profits.
Quote from: nullzero on February 15, 2007, 02:29:07 PM
Msn money has the best tools and info of all the other market portal sites. The only slight downside is its a little more confusing to navigate .
Wow .. who would have believed anything microsoft-related could produce something so useful ;D? ? MSN drove me crazy in the early days of the internet as their site has always been the poster-child for "confusion" ... so I never would have though of looking there for valuable invester tools. Thanks again :)
Quote from: nullzero on February 15, 2007, 02:29:07 PM
Msn money has the best tools and info of all the other market portal sites. The only slight downside is its a little more confusing to navigate compared to yahoo and the others. Now its time to come up with some creative screener settings for the MSN deluxe screener. If you use this to find a sector or a group of stocks with good fundamentals, can then go into further analysis with a indepth TA of each stock.
The only thing that I don't like is the graphs. They're very flat
Quote from: nullzero on February 15, 2007, 02:29:07 PM
Msn money has the best tools and info of all the other market portal sites. The only slight downside is its a little more confusing to navigate compared to yahoo and the others. Now its time to come up with some creative screener settings for the MSN deluxe screener. If you use this to find a sector or a group of stocks with good fundamentals, can then go into further analysis with a indepth TA of each stock.
Yep, this tool must be explored in all its senses. But not today, not by me. Have to go to my mother-in-law birthday party. But I'll leave this open until 4:30 or so ...
See ya, thanks for your participation, great stuff today :)
Yes I have to agree the graphs are not great. I use stockcharts.com and scottrade elite for my graphs so thats not a problem. Im trying to work on a filter fitting david's fundamental tips right now. Only problem is im trying to find out what fundamental filters in combination to use to identify dilution.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 02:12:04 PM
QuoteDavid do you use Internet explorer? This site is from Microsoft. Maybe if you're using other it could be no compatible
Right on nica !
I use Firefox, that's why I had no link. With IE it works perfectly. Thanks a lot!
As a female trader, you remind me of Linda Bradford Raschke, have you ever heard of her? Do you trade for a living or for a hobby? In which country do you live? I'm curious :)
No I don't know her. Who is? I'm from Colombia (Shakira's country ;D ), but I live in USA. Someday I'll trade for a living, not yet. I'm just a stay at home mom taking care of my 3 years old son. I use my time to prepare the meals, do the chores, stay with my baby, post in 3SOF and make some trades ;D ;D ;D
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:13:31 PM
I am settting up nica's criteria in the scanner and am stuck with this:
Screening parameter: Return on Assets Increased Since <In the Last Year>
I see Return on assets for the first box, >= for the second box, but what do I put in the third box? (<in the last year>)
Did any 0ne figure this out?
Quote from: ravenquork on February 15, 2007, 03:19:10 PM
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:13:31 PM
I am settting up nica's criteria in the scanner and am stuck with this:
Screening parameter: Return on Assets Increased Since <In the Last Year>
I see Return on assets for the first box, >= for the second box, but what do I put in the third box? (<in the last year>)
Did any 0ne figure this out?
Its located under Advisor FYI
David, you know I only concentrate on the main portfolio. But I still visit here from time to time just to see what you got to say :D
That "pump" on IBCX.PK almost shattered my confidence on you ... at that time I could feel you were really mad and wanted to do something to make the stock go up, whatever way you could. As you said, it wasn't so bad since you didn't do it for your own benefit, rather for the people who followed you and after that you swore that you wouldn't touch .PK stocks anymore. I am actually glad that it did not work. That wouldn't do any good towards your stated long-term goal when you turn 35. ;)
On the other hand, just as I said to you in the private message, this is THE most honest stock-picking service I have ever encounted. I have tried lots of other services, none of them really worked. Many of them use dishonest ways to calculate returns to make it look exceptionally good. Two examples come to my mind: one is Gorilla Trade, the one placed an entire AD page on IBD, basically their triggering price is set up so that if it worked, it is counted in the result; and if it didn't work, it is discarded... the other one is even funnier: I am talking about Bull Trade, if you look at their web site, the result is unbelievably good, yet here is how they calculate result: first of all, they can average down a position as many as 4 times, then when they average down the 2nd time, they calculate by ((A+B)/2+C)/2, not (A+B+C)/3! Similar if they need to do the 3rd time. When I email them, they say it is equal-share average, not equal-dollar average ??? And finally, when they calculate final result, they do an equal-weight arithmetic average, no matter how many times a position has been averaged down!!!
Anyway, I have a bit of free time today so I wrote the above. Probably not much valuable information but just want to say how fortunate we are here to have David. ;D He deserves not just 140 subscribers but 1000 ones! I hope he can reach that goal soon. :D
Quote from: David Randolph on February 15, 2007, 01:16:44 PM
The stock was IBCX.PK and it happened, it fell from $0.0070 to $0.0001 in a couple of months. Everybody in the Premium service knows the story. It was a bit of a shame, but since I told people I was selling it wasn't so bad ...
Quote from: nullzero on February 15, 2007, 03:21:29 PM
Quote from: ravenquork on February 15, 2007, 03:19:10 PM
Quote from: TraderStar on February 15, 2007, 01:13:31 PM
I am settting up nica's criteria in the scanner and am stuck with this:
Screening parameter: Return on Assets Increased Since <In the Last Year>
I see Return on assets for the first box, >= for the second box, but what do I put in the third box? (<in the last year>)
Did any 0ne figure this out?
Its located under Advisor FYI
Thank You
Messing with some formulas. Here 2 that combined will put you between the 61.8 and 50% fibon
Last Price >= 52-Week High-(52-Week High-52-Week Low)*0.618
Last Price <= 52-Week High-(52-Week High-52-Week Low)*0.5
Dave, I dont know if your still looking at SILC for the main but the technicals are starting to look more attractive. I'm going to buy on any weakness tomorrow.
Quote from: realcoolhead on February 15, 2007, 03:23:59 PM
On the other hand, just as I said to you in the private message, this is THE most honest stock-picking service I have ever encounted. I have tried lots of other services, none of them really worked. Many of them use dishonest ways to calculate returns to make it look exceptionally good. Two examples come to my mind: one is Gorilla Trade, the one placed an entire AD page on IBD, basically their triggering price is set up so that if it worked, it is counted in the result; and if it didn't work, it is discarded... the other one is even funnier: I am talking about Bull Trade, if you look at their web site, the result is unbelievably good, yet here is how they calculate result: first of all, they can average down a position as many as 4 times, then when they average down the 2nd time, they calculate by ((A+B)/2+C)/2, not (A+B+C)/3! Similar if they need to do the 3rd time. When I email them, they say it is equal-share average, not equal-dollar average ??? And finally, when they calculate final result, they do an equal-weight arithmetic average, no matter how many times a position has been averaged down!!!
Anyway, I have a bit of free time today so I wrote the above. Probably not much valuable information but just want to say how fortunate we are here to have David. ;D He deserves not just 140 subscribers but 1000 ones! I hope he can reach that goal soon. :D
Good post realcool .. I have long thought there was something fishy about Gorilla, they are so pushy .. but they do have a cute idea with their website theme ;D
There are also a lot of subscription services like Green Chip Stocks, Pure Energy, Taipan, Green Trader and many others that use similar 'tricks' to make their results look good. The absolute worst I have seen so far is Material Profits .. I don't think she has had a winner yet. ::) I subscribed to several of those last year and my subscriptions are ending now .. thank heavens .. a big waste of time and money.
My feeling is .. if you really have a "secret" trading system that constantly picks winners, why on earth would you spend time and money pushing & advertising it all over the place? Just trade .. you will get richer faster & if you pick up some followers along the way you can do what David is doing: start a premium service, then your own hedge fund. But do it organically and trading should always be the primary focus .. if what you are doing really works :) ;)
QuoteMy feeling is .. if you really have a "secret" trading system that constantly picks winners, why on earth would you spend time and money pushing & advertising it all over the place? Just trade .. you will get richer faster & if you pick up some followers along the way you can do what David is doing: start a premium service, then your own hedge fund. But do it organically and trading should always be the primary focus .. if what you are doing really works :) ;)
There's another reason Traderstar ... one should work for income and trade for wealth creation. I don't like trading for income, as it messes up with my rational judgment and emotional equilibrium.
realcoolhead, thanks for being a great supporter of 3 Stocks and saying the right words even when you disagree with the course of action.
Thank you all, see you tomorrow :)