Good morning :)
I've numbered the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0), 245 stocks covered so far!
That rating with colors issue will give me a lot of work because I need to watch/read each analysis again to do it ... I don't know where I'll find out time to do it, but don't worry, I will, it is important for the future.
I'm not planning to sell any of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings today.
Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village :)
Feel free to request analysis or post comments, thank you for your participation :)
hi david,
I have asked you yesterday already about CRAY?
tia
O.
AMNT please!
Before I start today's work, I want to explain why my stance is negative on most small caps (even more so on OTCBB traded stocks). Because, indeed, most of them go down over the long term, even in bull markets. They don't count to the market averages. The S&P500 can, and does have, a long term average annual 8% return, but that excludes all small and micro caps.
The stock market exists not to make shareholder's money, it exists for companies to be financed, grow, create jobs and pay more taxes.
However, some companies, some small and micro cap companies, work for shareholder's benefit (those that don't dilute their value) and do rise a lot over time. Finding this type of companies and a method to recognize them is what this message board is all about.
CRAY and AMNT next ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 09:17:39 AM
Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village :)
Coffee in the Village sounds awesome .. can we come too??
Where is the village ... Spain? Portugal? Czechoslovvakia? Romanis??
Hi David, I asked yesterday for VDSI. Thanks!
Quote from: TraderStar on February 21, 2007, 10:04:22 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 09:17:39 AM
Actually I won't be here probably until 10 AM, because yesterday I broke my bicycle so I'll walk for a coffee at the village :)
Coffee in the Village sounds awesome .. can we come too??
Where is the village ... Spain? Portugal? Czechoslovvakia? Romanis??
:) I was born in Cascais, Portugal, and live in a small village by the sea, Ericeira, near Cascais, near Lisbon. In fact I've never been in the US :-[
I plan to take some time off and visit the US (maybe Orlando, go to Disney World with my kids, and, of course, New York) after I get to the $150,000 on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) ;)
I hope it doesn't take 10 years lol
GM David,could you have a look at PXLW,it had pop on news this morning.Thanks
hi david
I have been several times to Portugal - I know Cascais also - very lovely country
with very friendly and warm-hearted people, good wine, nice food.
What will happen with CPNE today?
warm regards
goodman666 :)
David, do you have JADE ?
:) I was born in Cascais, Portugal, and live in a small village by the sea, Ericeira, near Cascais, near Lisbon. In fact I've never been in the US :-[
[/quote]
David,
Where did you learn English? What's your real name? You write very good in English. :)
dcrlin
Quote from: la-onda on February 21, 2007, 09:30:11 AM
hi david,
I have asked you yesterday already about CRAY?
tia
O.
CRAY, great stock, remember when we discussed it at $3 or $4? Arrgghh, these weak hands ::)
Technically the stock is bullish, with the 50 days SMA above the 200 days. I see resistance at $14.36, if the stock is able to close above that with volume above average, it will be a very meaningful long term bullish breakout.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $428 M. The Company designs, develops, manufactures, markets and services high performance computer systems, commonly known as supercomputers.
- CRAY is a "diluter", that is, the share count is always rising and it rose 35% in 2006 as you can see here (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cray&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann). That's bad.
- Balance sheet looks healthy, with $115 M in cash. $80 M in long term debt, though
- Revenues are growing, but still below 2003 level. The trailing price to sales ratio is 1.44
- The company is losing less money now and it was profitable in Q4 2006, with EPS of $0.32. Hmm, revenues in Q4 were way above trend, I wonder why and if it was a permanent motive or not. Let me check the news ...
UPDATE 1-Cray posts quarterly profit vs year-ago loss (http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070215:MTFH25477_2007-02-15_22-03-09_N15181627&type=comktNews&rpc=44)
Humm, those Q4 results were largely expected and they look like derived from a one time sale, because the company is forecasting 2007 sales at about $245 M and net income of about 5% of revenue, or $12.25 M. With 30.8 million shares outstanding that translates into full year EPS of $0.4 and a forward earnings multiple of 35.
I don't know the future for CRAY, but the stock looks overvalued to me, especially considering its habit of diluting shareholder's value.
But probably you know more and better than I do, good luck ;)
Quotehi david,
here are some pics i took in 1980! when i was 20 and travelling europe.
it is lagos portugal, the most southwesterly corner of europe. the old fortress was a youth hostel at the time . great beaches. reminded me of australia.
hope you enjoy them,
(sorry to be off topic)
maxi
Sorry rickjust, I had to remove your picks because they were slowing down the board a lot (it is slow enough). To insert images on the board you should use the .gif format, or else they'll be too "heavy".
But great photos!
Quote from: goodman666 on February 21, 2007, 10:30:39 AM
hi david
I have been several times to Portugal - I know Cascais also - very lovely country
with very friendly and warm-hearted people, good wine, nice food.
What will happen with CPNE today?
warm regards
goodman666 :)
Thanks, I guess you were lucky when visiting Portugal ;D
I don't know what will happen to CPNE.OB today, but I think it should rise another 10 or 20%, given the news about to come out tomorrow.
QuoteDavid,
Where did you learn English? What's your real name? You write very good in English. :)
dcrlin
Thanks dcrlin :)
I learned English ... well, mostly here, at www.3stocksonfire.org, and reading thousands of news, magazines and company reports. I wasn't particularly good at English at school, my speciality was mathematics. But, you know, English is the easiest language in the world :) (I just had to consult the dictionary to write this lol)
My real name is César José Mendonça de Freitas Borja. But I trade and feel like David Randolph ;)
hi,
sorry to slow down the board with those pics.
pmed still bullish, still holding
maxi
Quote from: spiritgate on February 21, 2007, 09:52:32 AM
AMNT please!
AMNT's chart is weird, what was that collapse in November 2006, stock split? I don't have a technical opinion the stock.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $137 M. The Company provides loan programs tailored to sub-prime borrowers with credit that does not meet conventional guidelines or who require non-conventional loan terms with respect to loan-to-value, debt ratio, cash-out or documentation.
- Balance sheet shows working capital is negative and there are just $2,242,096 in assets. That's too low for a $137 M market cap
- I see heavy dilution over the last couple of years
- Zero revenues in 2006 ??? Something is wrong here ...
- Lost $1,088,569 in 2006
Ok, I think I'm starting to understand what's happening here. This company, AMNT, isn't the same as before, just using the same ticker symbol.
The current profile is:
«Amish Naturals, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of gourmet, natural, and kosher dried organic pasta and fiber-rich pasta made with organic durum wheat in the United States.»
Spiritgate, where do you get these stocks? AMNT.OB will go down 90% in 2007, no doubt about it. People buying don't have a clue what they're doing in my opinion.
But keep them coming, thanks :)
David, thanks for analysis on ACY yesterday. Its up another 13%.
I got a very small position though at 15 bucks.
Quote from: nica33 on February 21, 2007, 10:39:09 AM
David, do you have JADE ?
No nica33 :(
There are three stocks outthere where I've written very bullish comments, which were JADE, CECE and NTTL.OB, but didn't buy any. Even today I wrote on the Premium area (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php) that CECE was a great candidate for the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), but I didn't have time to cover it more deeply, and bumm, up 10% today!
Still, I can't complain, results have been great with the current holdings! (one that I covered here and indeed bought was MCZ)
David,
Could you check CYD please?
Obrigado ;)
Quote
I learned English ... well, mostly here, at www.3stocksonfire.org, and reading thousands of news, magazines and company reports. I wasn't particularly good at English at school, my speciality was mathematics. But, you know, English is the easiest language in the world :) (I just had to consult the dictionary to write this lol)
My real name is César José Mendonça de Freitas Borja. But I trade and feel like David Randolph ;)
David,
My husband likes math very much: algebra, calculus, matrix algebra, vector calculus, numerical analysis. His name is David Randolph. He has never met with anyone from Portugal, but he has several friends from Bazil when he was younger.
I am very happy when I am with both online David Randolph and offline David Randolph. :o
English is my second language, too.
dcrlin
Quote from: nica33 on February 21, 2007, 10:06:10 AM
Hi David, I asked yesterday for VDSI. Thanks!
When I knew a lot less about stocks than I do now I was short VDSI, and paid 5% or so for my ignorance :D
Technically the stock is extremely bullish, after yesterday's long and white marubozu.
Fundamentally:
Hold it right there! The limit is $500 M market cap, as you know or can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0)
There's a place to request analysis for companies with more than $500 M market cap, but I guess you would have to be a Premium member to do that (sorry ;D)
Maybe someday you will be, we could use a member with your level of expertize ... (or expertise? English is not so easy)
I just got back into JADE. It's a forest fire. I was in and out last week for a few points and I'm already up 6% in a matter of minutes.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 12:11:51 PM
Quote from: nica33 on February 21, 2007, 10:06:10 AM
Hi David, I asked yesterday for VDSI. Thanks!
When I knew a lot less about stocks than I do now I was short VDSI, and paid 5% or so for my ignorance :D
Technically the stock is extremely bullish, after yesterday's long and white marubozu.
Fundamentally:
Hold it right there! The limit is $500 M market cap, as you know or can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0)
There's a place to request analysis for companies with more than $500 M market cap, but I guess you would have to be a Premium member to do that (sorry ;D)
Maybe someday you will be, we could use a member with your level of expertize ... (or expertise? English is not so easy)
;D ;D ;D. You're right. I didn't see the market cap before post. Thanks for the replay and for the invitation :)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 12:11:51 PM
Maybe someday you will be, we could use a member with your level of expertize ... (or expertise? English is not so easy)
Expertise. English not easy? It's a snap if you start at 6 months old ;D ;D
I lived in Europe for 22 years and speak German, Italian, Spanish and some French.
I was always glad that I was a native english speaker as I would hate to have to learn it as a foreign language!! Especially the spelling and all the idioms >:D
However .. the worst language to learn, I think, has got to be Japanese. I spent 7 months there last year ... loved it .. but I have never lived in a place so long and studied so much yet earned so little of the language. It is truly psychotic. :o
Luckily we are not typing in Japanese with 2000 kanji characters and 4 alphabets!!
Quote from: 2bun on February 21, 2007, 10:20:48 AM
GM David,could you have a look at PXLW,it had pop on news this morning.Thanks
Technically the current rally looks like a rebound in a bearish trend 2bun. The stock was so oversold on the long term chart that was due for a bounce. Let's make some fundamental tests and check today's news:
- Market cap is $112 M. Designer, developer and marketer of semiconductors and software for the advanced display industry, including advanced televisions, multimedia projectors, digital streaming media devices and liquid crystal display panels.
- Not all that much dilution since 2002 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=pxlw&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Current ratio is healthy at 3.84, the problem is long term debt is $140 M and that puts book value at just $21 M
- Revenue trend has been declining since 2004. Sold $133 M in 2006
- Jesus, the company lost ($204 M) in 2006 (but ok, most of it was due to a tax event, normalized income was ($63 M), still, a huge loss. Lost ($15 M) in Q4 2006
Today's news were:
• Pixelworks Announces Design Win with Samsung for New 'Bluejay' Co-Processor IC for Slim CRT Televisions (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070220/20070220006305.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue 4:05pm)
No doubt it is good news, but ... is it enough to turn financials around? Hard to know. This isn't the type of thing I go after, you know?
Sure, it can go up a lot. And it can just keep going down anyway, as the company is unable to show a profit and starts eroding that cash rich balance sheet.
I'm neutral on PXLW, good luck :)
David, how about HURC? requested yesterday. THNX
DDDC might be worth keeping an eye on .. seems to meet most of our criteria.
QuoteHowever .. the worst language to learn, I think, has got to be Japanese. I spent 7 months there last year ... loved it .. but I have never lived in a place so long and studied so much yet earned so little of the language. It is truly psychotic. :o
Luckily we are not typing in Japanese with 2000 kanji characters and 4 alphabets!!
You've lived everywhere TraderStar, that's a good thing, you probably have a truly open mind (which is needed if one wants to learn something).
I wonder if Tokyopua learned Japanese, if I recall correctly he lived there for 2 years or so (but he's an American).
PLRS has been on fire for the last 6 days or so.
SYNX is active today,same sector as TBUS.Good one to keep an eye on imo Increaseing volume and pps@ 2.19 now
XIDE not on fire, but it looks like the chart could be about ready to rock again. I haven't checked into the fundamentals enough.
MACD could use a bounce soon, but damn...what a pretty chart.
SILC chart also looks attractive, but not on fire yet. Also, volume has tapered off big time. Under 20k traded so far today..bummer.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 12:49:59 PM
QuoteHowever .. the worst language to learn, I think, has got to be Japanese. I spent 7 months there last year ... loved it .. but I have never lived in a place so long and studied so much yet earned so little of the language. It is truly psychotic. :o
Luckily we are not typing in Japanese with 2000 kanji characters and 4 alphabets!!
You've lived everywhere TraderStar, that's a good thing, you probably have a truly open mind (which is needed if one wants to learn something).
I wonder if Tokyopua learned Japanese, if I recall correctly he lived there for 2 years or so (but he's an American).
Yes, I learned Japanese, and it was a lot of work! But well worth it :) Actually I am reading a book about technical analysis in Japanese now to get familiar with all the terms, as I plan to open an account in Japanese yen with Etrade in April, so that I can trade Japanese stocks directly ;)
Actually Japanese is hard to learn to write, but these days I am studying Chinese, and while it is also hard to write, it is hard to speak because there are 4 different tones which are hard for westerners to pronounce...
Quote from: BigSully1 on February 21, 2007, 12:43:17 PM
David, how about HURC? requested yesterday. THNX
HURC's chart is as bullish as it can be, as the stock is trading at an all time high today. This is a $45 small cap, it suggests there wasn't any dilution over the years, but we'll check that out in a moment.
By the way BigSully, did you get rid of GSS? What happened there? Coming back up a bit today ...
About HURC's fundamentals:
- Market cap is $287 M. The Company is an industrial technology company. It designs, manufactures and sells computerized machine tools to companies in the metal working industry through a worldwide sales, service and distribution network.
- As I thought, the company even bought back some shares since 1997 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=hurc&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann)
- Balance sheet looks healthy, current ratio at 2.6 and $32 M in cash
- Revenues have been growing nicely over the years
- EPS in fiscal 2006 was $2.42. In fiscal Q1 2007 was $0.84. Multiply this by four and get EPS of $3.36 for a full year. Average estimates call for $3.11. Using my number the forward earnings multiple is 13.5. Looks attractive
Yep, no doubt HURC is a great company and stock. There can be a bit of a correction, but with the current publicly available information, I can see it doubling or more in 2007, towards $100.
Thanks :)
Thank you for the read on HURC. You must have me confused with someone else on GSS, I haven't been in that one for quite a long time.
Quote from: BigSully1 on February 21, 2007, 01:29:46 PM
Thank you for the read on HURC. You must have me confused with someone else on GSS, I haven't been in that one for quite a long time.
Sorry BigSully1, I confused you with KCScott ::)
Tomorrow will be an important day for CPNE.OB, as the CEO will give Q4 2006 guidance (I wonder if it is just revenue or EPS guidance too).
The average revenue estimate between me and Michael is about $11.5 M and we both expect $0.09 EPS for the quarter.
If the company meets these numbers, I see the stock flying above $4 tomorrow.
What does 8:30 am PST mean in ET? Thanks.
«Commerce Planet's presentation at the conference is scheduled for February 22nd at 8:30 am (PST) in the Ritz Ballroom, Salon 5. While attendance at the conference is by invitation only, the entire presentation, including the 2006 Q-4 guidance which will be discussed, will be available via a free public live webcast at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth9/cpne.ob/ . Users may access the free webcast by going to the link provided and entering their name, company name and e-mail address at the designated start time, and can access the archived presentation for up to a year thereafter.»
David excellent job on the analysis and picks of stocks. So many good picks of yours that didnt pan out in the short term but ended up becoming excellent gainers. PCU being one of them on its way to making new 52wk highs and about to trade in the 70s.
It is 11:30 am EST, David.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 01:45:23 PM
Tomorrow will be an important day for CPNE.OB, as the CEO will give Q4 2006 guidance (I wonder if it is just revenue or EPS guidance too).
The average revenue estimate between me and Michael is about $11.5 M and we both expect $0.09 EPS for the quarter.
If the company meets these numbers, I see the stock flying above $4 tomorrow.
What does 8:30 am PST mean in ET? Thanks.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 01:45:23 PM
Tomorrow will be an important day for CPNE.OB, as the CEO will give Q4 2006 guidance (I wonder if it is just revenue or EPS guidance too).
The average revenue estimate between me and Michael is about $11.5 M and we both expect $0.09 EPS for the quarter.
If the company meets these numbers, I see the stock flying above $4 tomorrow.
What does 8:30 am PST mean in ET? Thanks.
«Commerce Planet's presentation at the conference is scheduled for February 22nd at 8:30 am (PST) in the Ritz Ballroom, Salon 5. While attendance at the conference is by invitation only, the entire presentation, including the 2006 Q-4 guidance which will be discussed, will be available via a free public live webcast at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth9/cpne.ob/ . Users may access the free webcast by going to the link provided and entering their name, company name and e-mail address at the designated start time, and can access the archived presentation for up to a year thereafter.»
David, 8:30 am (PST) means 11:30 am eastern time
prw on fire again!!!
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 01:45:23 PM
Tomorrow will be an important day for CPNE.OB, as the CEO will give Q4 2006 guidance (I wonder if it is just revenue or EPS guidance too).
The average revenue estimate between me and Michael is about $11.5 M and we both expect $0.09 EPS for the quarter.
If the company meets these numbers, I see the stock flying above $4 tomorrow.
What does 8:30 am PST mean in ET? Thanks.
«Commerce Planet's presentation at the conference is scheduled for February 22nd at 8:30 am (PST) in the Ritz Ballroom, Salon 5. While attendance at the conference is by invitation only, the entire presentation, including the 2006 Q-4 guidance which will be discussed, will be available via a free public live webcast at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth9/cpne.ob/ . Users may access the free webcast by going to the link provided and entering their name, company name and e-mail address at the designated start time, and can access the archived presentation for up to a year thereafter.»
PST means pacific standard time... its 3 hours behind EST. So if its 11:30am in New York City, in Los Angeles it would be 8:30am. The conference is held in california so the hours would reflect that from the conference schedule. http://www.rothconference.com/schedule.html
I get confused with earnings releases and conferences all the time because I would automatically assume its all default market time (NYC time) but some companys list the times in their region of operation etc. Espically the foriegn companies confuse me with earnings releases and events.
QuoteDavid, 8:30 am (PST) means 11:30 am eastern time
Thanks, nice hour to make the stock run :)
Listen, today is Champions League day, and a big game is about to start between Porto (Portugal) and Chelsea (England). I also have Lucas here pushing me to play some Darth Vader game with him ...
So, I'll leave the computer, feel free to post analysis or any comments you like, and good luck for your trades :)
Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 01:59:25 PM
QuoteDavid, 8:30 am (PST) means 11:30 am eastern time
Thanks, nice hour to make the stock run :)
Listen, today is Champions League day, and a big game is about to start between Porto (Portugal) and Chelsea (England). I also have Lucas here pushing me to play some Darth Vader game with him ...
So, I'll leave the computer, feel free to post analysis or any comments you like, and good luck for your trades :)
Would be nice if it did run up into the close :). Would print a nice big white candle at or near the HOD.
I tried to access the stock request board for stocks over 500M, but I couldn't find it. Any help, please?
VDSI - reported earnings yesterday, new high, good volume, ON FIRE?
Business Summary : VASCO Data Security International, Inc. (VASCO) designs, develops, markets and supports open standards-based hardware and software security systems that manage and secure access to information assets. It designs, develops, markets and supports the Strong User Authentication products for e-business and e-commerce. Strong User Authentication is delivered via the Company s hardware and software Digipass security products, called Digipass devices, most of which incorporate an electronic signature capability, guarantee the integrity of electronic transactions and data transmissions. Some of the Digipass units are compliant with the Europay MasterCard Visa standard, and are compatible with MasterCard s and VISA s new smart cards. The backbone of the Company s product range is the VACMAN Controller. For user access control, the VACMAN Middleware products limit application access to designated Digipass users. In October 2006, the Company acquired Able N.V., which is based in Mechelen, Belgium.
SCORES
P/E: --
Profitability: ++
T/A: ++
Risk factors: --
Analyst reports: -
EARNINGS YESTERDAY
AP
Vasco Surges to New High on 4Q Earnings
Tuesday February 20, 3:57 pm ET
Vasco Data Security Shares Surge to New 52-Week High on Strong 4th-Quarter Earnings
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of security software maker Vasco Data Security International Inc. soared Tuesday after the company posted fourth-quarter earnings that came in ahead of Wall Street expectations.
Net income for the quarter was $5.1 million, or 13 cents per share, up from $3 million, or 8 cents per share, in the fourth quarter of 2005. Fourth-quarter revenue was $25.2 million, up 44 percent from $17.5 million in the year-ago period.
Analysts expected earnings of 11 cents per share on $25.7 million in revenue, according to a Thomson Financial analyst poll.
Income for the full year was $12.6 million, or 33 cents per share, up from $7.7 million, or 21 cents per share, for 2005. Revenue for the year was $76.1 million, up from $54.6 million in the year-ago period.
"The results of the fourth quarter showed the increasing strength of our products and the leverage in our business model," said Jan Valcke, president and chief operating officer.
Avondale Partners analyst P. Sean Jackson, who has a "Market Perform" rating on the stock, said the business metrics were indicative of a company in a "strong growth phase."
Shares of Vasco, which have traded between $6.88 and $15.99 over the last 52 weeks, were up $3.41, or 22.5 percent, at $18.84 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq. Earlier in the session shares set a new year-high of $18.71.
Gold stocks are on fire today. Anyone have thoughts on the posibility of a breakout in gold in the near term.
Quote from: sfhappyfish88 on February 21, 2007, 02:53:25 PM
I tried to access the stock request board for stocks over 500M, but I couldn't find it. Any help, please?
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8542.0
Hi David,
When you have a chance can you provide some analysis on LTS?
Seem to be "on fire" lately.
TIA.
Quote from: sfhappyfish88 on February 21, 2007, 02:53:25 PM
I tried to access the stock request board for stocks over 500M, but I couldn't find it. Any help, please?
It's on the Main Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=1.0), the "Analysis on Demand" thread.
Well, well, FC Porto drew with Chelsea and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) was down 0.64% on the day.
During the day I thought about selling PFSW to buy CECE, but ... I didn't do it, and that's what counts. Tomorrow will be a big day for CPNE.OB, I hope it really shows outstanding numbers.
See you tomorrow :)