3SOF

TBSI-TBS International Limited provides ocean transportation of dry cargo through the use of owned and chartered vessels. Its liner, parcel, and bulk services primarily carry steel products, coal, salt, sugar, grain, fertilizers, chemicals, metal concentrates, and general cargo. The company provides short and long-term time charters that offer an alternative means to contract for ocean transportation of cargoes and make the carrying capacity of entire vessels available to its customers. It also offers parcel service that originates in Peru, Ecuador, or Chile and carries metal concentrates, beet pulp pellets, and fertilizers to East Asia. As of December 31, 2005, the company�s fleet totaled 37 vessels. As of the same date, it carried 3.2 million tons of cargo and operated 198 voyages. TBS operates in Brazil, Japan, Chile, the United States, Peru, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Korea, and China. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

from yahoo finance

Market Cap (intraday): 288.33M
Enterprise Value (21-Feb-07)3: 378.34M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 8.45
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-07) 1: 6.75
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.74
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.09
Price/Book (mrq): 1.39
Average Volume (3 month)3: 47,029.5
Average Volume (10 day)3: 30,666.7
Shares Outstanding: 27.72M
Float: 9.90M

Fundamentals look good, nice trend in increasing revenues and earnings.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=tbsi

With free markets expanding and global trade expanding every day, TBSI is in a good industry with dry shipping of goods and materials across the world. The chart looks good (the volume is a little on the lower side 40k daily avg. but looks like its stepping up) and the fundamentals are undervalued compared to the rest of its peers in the shipping industry. Dry shipping seems to be one of the gem sectors with China, India, and the world consuming more raw materials and goods. BULK, DSX, and other peers in the industry have been reporting excellent earnings results the last couple quarters.

Bought some TBSI @ 10.65 avg today. Earnings out march 9th hoping for some good numbers  ;D.

Chart is looking great making new 52wk highs, waiting for more volume to kick in to take this higher  ;D. I am expecting closer we get to earnings march 9th is when the volume will start ramping up.

Should of held in :(.

At EXM's thread we've been discussing shipping companies and TBSI popped up as the most attractive of the all, despite being up so much over the short term. The stock is trading at 7 times estimated 2008 earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI), and the Shipping industry average trades at 15.76 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TBSI).

If analyst's estimates are met and the company trades at the industry average valuation, it will rise 125% between now and the end of 2008, that is a 50% annual return.

My valuation model for the next three years looks like this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37165;image)

The rise in profits is expected to come mainly from an expansion in net profit margin to the industry average level, but also due to revenue growth of 11% (which was the Q1 2007 growth rate).

I wish I bought the stock earlier, but it is still very attractive in my view, with a 40 - 50% expected share price CAGR from this point. I expect TBSI to more than offset EXM's short term decline, no doubt TBSI is more attractive than EXM, it has more vessels (34 against 17 for EXM), more revenues ($70.8 M in Q1 versus $36 M for EXM) and just $630 M market cap versus $509 M for EXM.

The trading plan is:

Buy TBSI, 6.66% of capital as always.

Good Choice target $30

Quote from: yukiii on May 23, 2007, 01:50:43 PM
Good Choice target $30

Thanks yukiii :)

TBSI trade looks like NGA's, a stock that is up a lot over the short term, but where the fundamental value is obviously superior. I hope the outcome will be similar too.

Not considering growth or anything else, if we multiply the $0.51 EPS the company had in Q1 2007 by four, we get to $2.04 EPS for the full year. If we apply the Shipping industry average earnings multiple of ... hmmm, it declined from 15.76 yesterday to 11.89 today ... can't be, something is wrong, like it happened with the Networking & Communication Devices industry once while I was covering SILC. I'll make the same thinking tomorrow, waiting for the data error to be corrected.

Well, let me check the P/E of the three largest Shipping companies (http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ll/775mkt.html) (also multiplying the 1st quarter number by 4), which are TK, TDW and FRO.

- TK had EPS of $0.81 in Q1 2007. Gives me $3.24 for the full year. Stock is at $60.26, forward P/E is 18.6;
- TDW had EPS of $1.56 in Q1 2007, which translates into $6.24 for a full year. Yesterday's close was $66.4, P/E is 10.6;
- FRO ... still didn't report.

Not many conclusions from this study either.

Well, according to analysts views TBSI is trading at 7 times 2008 earnings, so it wouldn't surprise anybody to see this number rise at least 50%, to 11.5 times forward earnings:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37222;image)

I'll keep on holding TBSI.

Hi,

I'm new to 3sof and just started recently following.

Bought TBSI yesterday and it's taken a nice hit today  :(  Do you usually see some corrections before the stocks pick up with your pics?

Quote from: stockhunter on May 24, 2007, 10:54:13 AM
Hi,

I'm new to 3sof and just started recently following.

Bought TBSI yesterday and it's taken a nice hit today  :(  Do you usually see some corrections before the stocks pick up with your pics?

Yes, I would consider the first 10%, up or down, as "short term noise". TBSI was overbought so people are taking profits in it. Unfortunately it is impossible to know when corrections will come and when they will end, it's unpredictable. One should rely on the trend (which is obviously ascending), and the fundamentals (which are obviously attractive - that's why the stock has been up so much - but it is still way undervalued).

How do you tell it's overbought.  Does 3SOF have such a huge following that whatever it puts out causing things to be overbought? 

The last several recommendations seem to be all negative thus far (probably not enough time).

Forgive me if i appear negative, it's clearly not the case, just trying to look at things critically & without emotions as stocks dont' have any :)

David,

Shouldn't we have stop limits in place for stocks in the portfolio like TBSI in case of a stock market correction? I understand that you believe in long term fundamentals, but the market sometimes doesn't care about that, especially when they are unloading everything and the kitchen sink... 10% loss can turn into 20% and so on very quickly.

QuoteHow do you tell it's overbought.

Technical indicators tell you that, for example, the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37230;image)

When the SO is above 80, or the RSI is above 70, the stock is overbought. I've learned this when I was studying the market for one month, back in 1996. Of course, these indicators are worthless, look, if you had sold because it was overbought, you would have gotten out of the stock at $12 or so.

QuoteDoes 3SOF have such a huge following that whatever it puts out causing things to be overbought?

Not at all.

QuoteThe last several recommendations seem to be all negative thus far (probably not enough time).

Yes, it has been a though time. The Main Portfolio declined from an all time high of $425,000 to $391,670 now, a 7.1% decline from top to bottom (drawdown). If you pick any mutual fund you like, any, over a number of years, you'll see that there's not even one that could escape a 7% drawdown. I feel the pain like everybody else, but I believe the Main is at the lows of this correction, and the long term trend remains bullish.

QuoteForgive me if i appear negative, it's clearly not the case, just trying to look at things critically & without emotions as stocks dont' have any :)

That's the right course of action, keep things in perspective.

Quote from: wxmang on May 24, 2007, 12:48:30 PM
David,

Shouldn't we have stop limits in place for stocks in the portfolio like TBSI in case of a stock market correction? I understand that you believe in long term fundamentals, but the market sometimes doesn't care about that, especially when they are unloading everything and the kitchen sink... 10% loss can turn into 20% and so on very quickly.

No, it doesn't work, one ends up selling at or near the bottom, I've tried that in the past. Everyone is free to do as he thinks is best, but my advice after taking so many costly lessons is for you to sit tight and hold everything you got with strong hands.

Its time to buy, after 2 down days we will go back up, not Davids fault we had a correction.

"Its time to buy, after 2 down days we will go back up, not Davids fault we had a correction."

The time to buy is when the short-term downtrend stops.

I am training my mind to smile at the 7% losses on the year that I have :)

I think it is working, because, I haven't thrown the computer out the window like I did in the DOT COM days :)

 As long as the Nasdaq can hold support at 2533 then the rally from the mid March low will remain intact.  However if the Nasdaq were to break below 2533  then that would lead to a drop back to 2500 which would signal a reversal of its current up trend.     

yukii,

sorry for my ignorance, but what/how makes you draw that conclusion pertaining to tbsi?

"As long as the Nasdaq can hold support at 2533 then the rally from the mid March low will remain intact."

It was interesting to watch how the DOW kept falling but the Nasdaq held that 2533 almost by design! Very cool Yukii :)

Quote from: stockhunter on May 24, 2007, 03:42:38 PM
yukii,

sorry for my ignorance, but what/how makes you draw that conclusion pertaining to tbsi?

TBSI bounced off $21 support to rebound a bit. Good buy today.
Bought up alot of companies today. My PZZ up 2% today going to $8.00.
MFD closed end fund great buy today. WPCS another good buy.

Some advice for new investors, I ususally buy stocks 100% on these corrections and when they start getting overbought, I move them all into closed ends funds or if i am lucky QID as a hedge.
This way you don't get killed if you are greedy. This will cut your losses in half during a correction.

Then take them out of closed end funds and Buy stocks back again, This works the best in the long run. 

Yukii, good call..
I picked up HWCC yesterday after it broke out above of its downward resistance.

Quote from: wxmang on May 24, 2007, 04:17:22 PM
Yukii, good call..
I picked up HWCC yesterday after it broke out above of its downward resistance.

HWCC looks good for a target $34 Maybe I will pick some up tomorrow.

TBSI is estimated to earn $3.19 per share in 2008 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI). If the stock were to trade at the industry average earnings multiple, which is 15.16 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TBSI), it will then be a $48.36 stock. This means a 50% share price CAGR. I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term, I'm a believer in the Shipping industry, demand will just keep growing due to free trade and globalization.

What a friggin reversal Today!   :o
Holy Moly Guacamole!

Great day today, good thing I was buying yesterday what ever I could find.
Loaded up today with TBSI, I put a limit order in at 21.30 last night, got up this morning and it was filled at 20.58, hows that for luck.

Sold all my other shippers DSX and DRYS to put it all here.
I really like TBS
TBSI has 37 ships 9.5 million shares and 2008 earnings estimates of $3.25, the best value out there.
Short term target $32 long term $45

Very nice luck Yukii! Man that was a nice fill this morning.
I can't seem to hit the SELL trigger on DRYS...
Because of the valuation and the $50 price target.
I wish I had any money left. 100% invested. doh!

QuoteSold all my other shippers DSX and DRYS to put it all here.
I really like TBS
TBSI has 37 ships 9.5 million shares and 2008 earnings estimates of $3.25, the best value out there.
Short term target $32 long term $45

Yeah, best shipping company outthere. Zacks made a few comments on the stock this weekend:

«TBS International Ltd. (NASDAQ: TBSI) reached 52-week highs on May 15 and May 16, following the announcement of a successful first-quarter performance. The ocean transportation services company reported total revenues of $70.8 million in the quarter, which was up 11% from the previous year's $63.8 million. Earnings per share improved year over year to 54 cents, excluding items, and beat the consensus by 35%. The company attributed the improvement to the continued market strength and the consistent implementation of its business strategy during prior years.

TBS International was the top performing Zacks #1 Rank company last week as shares soared 19.7%. Analysts' earnings estimates for this year are up to $2.35, marking advances of 35% and 8.3% over the past one month and seven days respectively.»

Net income in Q1 2007 was $14.4 M. If the next three quarters are similar, TBSI will have net income of $57.6 M in 2007. The company's market cap is now $602 M, so the estimated earnings multiple is about 10.5. This seems too cheap, considering revenues are growing and net profit margin in Q1 2007 was 20.3%. Now that I think of it, this net profit margin can expand to 30 - 40%, since, for example, EXM, another shipping company, has a 34% net profit margin (analysts covering the stock are expecting about 36% net profit margin for TBSI in 2008, and that's what I have in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TBSI&portfolio=main)).

All in all, TBSI is the best outthere, I wish I had seen it earlier, but still way undervalued and going higher. I'll keep on holding TBSI.

This has to be good for TBSI tomorrow:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bD8108904-BE5D-4449-A206-3BA98AB8A531%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

DRYS apparently just blew away earnings by around 97% today after the close!

QuoteDRYS apparently just blew away earnings by around 97% today after the close!

DRYS rose just 0.9% in after hours trading, so probably not much impact on TBSI today. Anyway, after a normal pullback TBSI seems ready to breakout above $23.75 to a new all time high. Fundamental value is much higher in my view, as you can read over the thread.

I'll keep holding TBSI, the most attractive shipping company in the market.

Nothing new on TBSI today, the stock will probably breakout to a new all time high soon, since fundamental value is much higher than the current market value.

Consolidating here, earnings in August will be good.

If one compares TBSI's growth rate and valuation with the S&P 500, he'll immediately see how undervalued this stock is:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37490;image)

There's nothing else to do but to keep holding and waiting for a bullish breakout of the $23.75 all time high resistance level.

When TBSI breaks the $23.75 resistance level, it will probably run fast towards $23.75 - $20.3 = $3.45 + $23.75 = $27.2, which would be the technical target of such breakout.

In fundamental terms my valuation model says TBSI should only be sold at $37.75 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TBSI&portfolio=main), so I'll keep holding TBSI.

As expected, TBSI broke out of its trading range, to a new all time high. The optimal selling price for TBSI, given by my valuation model, is $37.75, so I'll keep on holding the stock.

The Shipping industry average earnings multiple rose from 13.79 to 14.3, so TBSI's optimal selling price rose from $37.75 to $39.14. With the stock at $24.04 it doesn't cross my mind selling it.

People took losses in many stocks yesterday, so they sold the ones where they had profits to compensate for the losses. TBSI suffered a bit from this phenomenon. But this company's fundamentals are just too attractive, it trades at 8 times estimated 2008 earnings and EPS in Q1 2007 grew 82% from Q1 2006.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

Shipping Industry is taking a beating today!  TBSI is way oversold, I see a nice bounce happening soon.

Quote from: mbaugh on June 07, 2007, 03:25:32 PM
Shipping Industry is taking a beating today!  TBSI is way oversold, I see a nice bounce happening soon.

Yeah, me too. There was too much pressure to take profits yesterday, regardless of the fundamentals, so people sold TBSI in a rage, because many had profits in this one. I don't have a profit, instead a 6% loss, but I see almost a double coming, no effort needed, just patient.

I'll patiently keep holding TBSI, as bulls rest from the previous run.

I know everyone here is worked up about SILC, does anyone else have an opinion on TBSI?  How about Yukii, what's your take on TBSI short-term?  Of all the stocks in the main portfolio, I like TBSI the best.  The only problem is i bought it at $23 and I too am down with this trade.  it seems to be repeating the same pattern the last time we were down, if we can close above 21.07 (today's opening price) then I think we should see a nice reversal towards new highs.  But who know's with the rest of the market this could go lower.  Any thoughts? Thanks.

Mbaugh

I doubled down on it yesterday, so yes I like it.

Quote from: mbaugh on June 08, 2007, 10:57:42 AM
Any thoughts? Thanks.

Hi mbaugh,

TBSI is also one of my favorite picks in 3SOF's portfolio but as always in investing timing is important.

The shipping industry is by nature very cyclical. If the world economy slows down or the market perceives that the world economy will slow down the shipping stocks are among the first to be hit.

Right now there are a lot of fear in the market that increasing interest rates, initiatives in China to slow growth and rising energy costs will slow down the world economy. This combined with record order books for new tonnage makes some investors very worried about shipping stocks. That is why you have what I consider to be ridiculous valuation of shipping stocks.

As some of the old-timers here would know I am bearish on the US economy and therefore the US stock market. I believe that we will see a correction during the summer and unfortunately despite the cheap valuation of shipping stocks I believe they will lead that correction.

As shipping by nature is an international business they are dependent on the world economy and not solely on the US economy and I am much more bullish on the world economy so even though I like TBSI I will sit on the sideline and wait for the correction to come into play (as I have been waiting for a long time  :)). That is when I believe you can do a great investment in TBSI and some of the other shipping stocks.

Yukii and Michael, thanks for the comments!

Transportation costs – and can cost a lot. We all know this. We even feel it personally as we shell out that $40, $50, or dare we say $60 for a full tank at the corner service station. We also feel it in the cost of the things we buy – like food and consumer goods – and since Star Trek's transporter is a long way from being a reality, that stuff has got to get from the farm, mine or manufacturer somehow. For coal and iron ore it's by ship.

Recently, the cost of hiring that ship has been rising. And it's not only due to increased operating costs (think fuel). The large capesize ships can carry 175,000 tonne of coal or iron-ore, and China has been using them at record levels. Here's what happened: India, China's closest iron-ore exporter, introduced a new tax on iron-ore exports, leading China to look farther afield for cheaper supplies. These supplies have to be brought in by ship longer distances which has reduced the number of ships available for hire. Once again the laws of supply and demand spring into action and transportation costs rise. They've risen so much that industry officials say that "freight [is] almost expensive as the ore itself".

It's not just coal and iron ore that are effected. With the tight supply of capesize ships, the mid-sized "panamax vessels" are experiencing an increase in demand and their prices have risen too. This trickle down effect could raise prices all down the line, bumping up everything from rice to soybeans. And with China being one of the largest importer of soybeans, we all know which way the ships are headed.

Quote from: yukiii on June 08, 2007, 01:23:14 PM
Recently, the cost of hiring that ship has been rising. And it's not only due to increased operating costs (think fuel). The large capesize ships can carry 175,000 tonne of coal or iron-ore, and China has been using them at record levels. Here's what happened: India, China's closest iron-ore exporter, introduced a new tax on iron-ore exports, leading China to look farther afield for cheaper supplies. These supplies have to be brought in by ship longer distances which has reduced the number of ships available for hire. Once again the laws of supply and demand spring into action and transportation costs rise. They've risen so much that industry officials say that "freight [is] almost expensive as the ore itself".

Hi Yukii

This is the fundamental case for investing in shipping stocks and I believe in this case as well. As you know better than most investing is not only about fundamentals. If you believe that US economy will slow down or the stock market will go through a correction DJ transport will be the first index to fall (As we have just seen). Professional investors know this and that is why they at the end of a bull run put a very low valuation on transport stocks. Some of these stocks pay a 12% dividend but they have still been trading down the last couple of days  ::).

In a situation with so much uncertainty as now I would prefer (that is if I was in the market) to have more defensive stocks.

If on the other hand you strongly believe that this bull run will continue then shipping could be a great investment. It is all about sentiment and risk and right now a feel that these two factors do not favor transport stocks  :)

Quote from: Michael on June 08, 2007, 01:49:31 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 08, 2007, 01:23:14 PM
Recently, the cost of hiring that ship has been rising. And it's not only due to increased operating costs (think fuel). The large capesize ships can carry 175,000 tonne of coal or iron-ore, and China has been using them at record levels. Here's what happened: India, China's closest iron-ore exporter, introduced a new tax on iron-ore exports, leading China to look farther afield for cheaper supplies. These supplies have to be brought in by ship longer distances which has reduced the number of ships available for hire. Once again the laws of supply and demand spring into action and transportation costs rise. They've risen so much that industry officials say that "freight [is] almost expensive as the ore itself".

Hi Yukii

This is the fundamental case for investing in shipping stocks and I believe in this case as well. As you know better than most investing is not only about fundamentals. If you believe that US economy will slow down or the stock market will go through a correction DJ transport will be the first index to fall (As we have just seen). Professional investors know this and that is why they at the end of a bull run put a very low valuation on transport stocks. Some of these stocks pay a 12% dividend but they have still been trading down the last couple of days  ::).

In a situation with so much uncertainty as now I would prefer (that is if I was in the market) to have more defensive stocks.

If on the other hand you strongly believe that this bull run will continue then shipping could be a great investment. It is all about sentiment and risk and right now a feel that these two factors do not favor transport stocks  :)

Well as you are a bear and have been one for some time and have been wrong  many times here.
TBSI is not your usual shipper big growth here. The economy is doing great here in US and will pick up next few quarters. Don't fall for the US going into the tank.  The only thing to watch is the fed and when they raise rates next year because of the strong growth.

Worldwide demand for oil and gas continues to grow which requires more and more shipping. This benefits tanker companies.
With a number of countries experiencing serious draughts, corn, wheat, soybean, oats and rice will be in short supply.
China , Australia and Argentiina are all having problems which  means buyers will have to look to the US and Canada for Grains.
This means a surge in dry goods shipping demands as buyers have to obtain their grains from more distant ports like the US verus their more trad=itional purchases closer to home.
Russia would normally buy grains from China and Australia but due to poor crops will be forced to buy from  US and Canada.
Buy TBSI and DSX

I hope you're right!
I got in at 21.21 up 7% just today.

She is looking so pretty  ;D

Quote from: pinoleropuro on June 08, 2007, 07:26:52 PM
I hope you're right!
I got in at 21.21 up 7% just today.

She is looking so pretty  ;D

Yeah it started going up when the analyst on CNBC said not to buy shipping stocks. DSX went up 3% today.

Hi Michael, nice to see you :)

A slowdown in the US economy is the least of my fears, because, it already happened. The market is looking ahead and sees strong growth, because America, in the end, still is the most competitive economy in the World and will benefit the most from globalization. Everybody wins, but US businesses win the most from a larger global economy.

As for Shipping and Transport stocks (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TBSI), indeed, they trade at a below average valuation, just 14.2 times earnings. Well, but that's what I have in my valuation model for TBSI (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TBSI&portfolio=main), and it still says the stock is worth a lot more than current prices.

What is happening with TBSI is company specific, not sector and even less so macro. Net profit margin is expanding, from 15.4% (2006 net profit margin), to 30% plus (it was 20.3% in Q1 2007), coming back in line with other shipping companies net profit margin.

I don't like TBSI because I think shipping stocks are cheap. I like TBSI because inside the group, the stock is the most attractive, and I expect it to rise even if the sector goes down. In fact, over the past 3 months, the DJ US marine transportation index was up just 9.6% and TBSI was up 125%, outperforming its sector by 12 fold:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37854;image)

I'll keep on holding TBSI.

TBSI is still in the laundering machine, making people with weak hands leave the stock. Perhaps it will wait for the 50 days SMA before pushing decisively higher. I'll keep holding TBSI.

stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

I hope you got back on track quickly yukiii. You know TBSI is fundamentally attractive and the general market is bullish. Good luck :)

yeah I got back in on this one at $20.45. Mostly in large caps and short SKK
Rising rates not to good for small caps. Stopped out of SILC and PAL

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 03:13:59 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

I know where the 10 year bond yield is. Everybody knows that. Nothing unexpected. Bear Markets don't start when everybody sees what the problem is. But there's no problem, 5.25% on the 10 year yield is still low and well supported by the global economy, in my view.

Support for the SPY at $149.42, given by the 50 days SMA.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 03:53:47 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 03:13:59 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:05:32 PM

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 12:48:20 PM
stopped Out today TBSI , I am short the market for awhile.

TBSI has nothing to do with the general market in my view. And the general market is bullish and reacted well to the 50 days SMA support, nowhere to go but up over the medium/long term.

Next support 1493 on the S&P. 10 year is 5.26 now

I know where the 10 year bond yield is. Everybody knows that. Nothing unexpected. Bear Markets don't start when everybody sees what the problem is. But there's no problem, 5.25% on the 10 year yield is still low and well supported by the global economy, in my view.

Support for the SPY at $149.42, given by the 50 days SMA.

Closed at support, no bear market but a good excuse for a correction in June. Good buying opportunity
coming up in global growth plays large caps and Mid cap growth stories. Get ready to follow the trend stocks for the next move up.

IMPERIAL OIL LTD
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC.   
NUCOR CORP
PETRO-CANADA CAD   
DANAHER CORP.
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD.
MORGAN STANLEY
STARBUCKS CORP.
AFLAC INC
COACH INC
APPLE
GOOGLE

David a suggestion for new people to 3SOF why not put a BUY or HOLD next to exit point on the main page. I think there will be a lot of good buying opps ahead.

Hmmm, Michael had a nice post here, where is it?

QuoteDavid a suggestion for new people to 3SOF why not put a BUY or HOLD next to exit point on the main page. I think there will be a lot of good buying opps ahead.

If I'm holding the stock I definitely consider it a buy, or else I wouldn't be holding it. If not good enough to buy, not good enough to hold in my view.

As for TBSI, I guess technicians would consider the current consolidation phase "normal", even though fundamentals are very attractive, just by the simple fact that the stock was up 150% in 2007. Maybe TBSI will even touch the 50 days SMA, that's going to be a serious drawdown for the Main Portfolio.

As I've been studying more stocks I see that almost always there are corrections to the 50 days SMA in all powerful bull running stocks, so, as a lesson for the future, indeed, probably I should be more careful and try to pick shares at a technical support as the 50 days SMA, even when I think fundamentals are extremely attractive. That's because it is boring to be holding the stock while it corrects, it makes people uncomfortable.

But, nobody knows where TBSI and the 50 days SMA will meet. The stock can either go down in a sharp sell off followed by an equally sharp reversal or else stay within the current trading range as it waits for the moving average to catch up with price.

Either way, TBSI goes higher over the medium/long term. The stock is trading at 6.4 times 2008 estimated earnings and growing nicely. Can't be. I'll keep holding TBSI. 

David, I always try to load up when stocks correct to the 50 or 200 ma.
and ride them back up to overbought and sell. Many small caps will give up all there gains, easier to roll them over to another company at there 50 or 200 ma. Unless you get this point you will keep having the same problem. Not to pick on you but 3SOF went from 14% to 21& back to 13% the past week.
YTD 33% down to $13%. If you follow my strategy  you would probable be still at around 25%.

Yes, I lost some this week which I hate, a little over 1%. But I still have most of my gains for the year.
Not 150% like some claim here, but just up 29% for the year. Back when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Having your whole portfolio correct all at one time from there highs is bad for the faint herarted.

When I was your age I turned $60,000 into 2 million in 3 months, then lost most of it in a week. lesson learned. Thats another story...

By the way I like most of your picks now except NTES, JAKK, and TZOO maybe you can convince me on those 3. Waiting for a good time to jump back in.  Everyone is scared that interest rates are going up - and they are.

Most do not realize it is not the rate that matters but the ease of getting money. The Fed
is still pushing cash into the system. When they start to tighten (and with their stupidity
of the past you know they will) that is when the market will go down and not come
back.

Look for 10-year Treasury approaching a yield of 5.5%,  that's where yields will settle in the coming months."

Keep in mind the last time the Yield on the 10 Year Note rose above 5% was in the Spring of 2006 which was followed by a 1000 point drop in the Dow.  Thus it will be interesting to see if we will now see another multi week pullback develop in the coming weeks. Dow 13200, S&P 500 1487  support  to watch.

QuoteDavid, I always try to load up when stocks correct to the 50 or 200 ma.
and ride them back up to overbought and sell. Many small caps will give up all there gains, easier to roll them over to another company at there 50 or 200 ma. Unless you get this point you will keep having the same problem.

I don't think my strategy has a problem.

QuoteNot to pick on you but 3SOF went from 14% to 21& back to 13% the past week.
YTD 33% down to $13%. If you follow my strategy  you would probable be still at around 25%.

At the maximum the Main Portfolio was up 25% in 2007 (33% didn't happen). Now it is up 15.3%. I wouldn't follow your strategy, you just keep flipping stocks and have weak hands (example: your selling of TBSI and PAL, even though you thought TBSI was one of the most attractive stocks you've ever seen). Moreover you walk away and say nothing when your stocks go south. That's the hardest part of making this service, to show up and write, even when things go very bad, but it is also one of the most valuable parts of the service, in my view.

QuoteYes, I lost some this week which I hate, a little over 1%. But I still have most of my gains for the year. Not 150% like some claim here, but just up 29% for the year. Back when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Good for you yukiii. 29% before July is an awesome return, congrats. I wish you had that type of return over your entire career, you would be in the Forbes top 100 list for sure :)

QuoteBack when I first started investing you could hold stocks for years and forget about them, not anymore. When the portfolio does go back up remember rotate out to another stock or a index. I think everyone would sleep better that way.

Nah, they wouldn't. Nobody could follow a service that would keep selling stocks and buying others, with a short term perspective. Also I don't think that is a good strategy. Sure, sometimes you get very high returns, but not 30% CAGR over the long term.

QuoteHaving your whole portfolio correct all at one time from there highs is bad for the faint herarted.

I've done what you do for years, and it is a lot more stressful in my view. Always thinking: "should I take profits now, should I sell XYZ and buy ABC instead? Should I cut losses here and buy another?" The endless decisions make you think stock market all the time, not really enjoying life.

QuoteWhen I was your age I turned $60,000 into 2 million in 3 months, then lost most of it in a week. lesson learned. Thats another story...

That's a very cool story yukiii, why don't you disclose some more? We could all learn from it. I have a couple of those too, but smaller. At age 25 I run up a $2,500 futures account to $80,000. Bought a Porsche. Inversely, when my first son was born, I was at my, how do you say it, my wife's parents house and felt bored. I sold 3 DAX futures contracts by the close. Next morning I lost half of my account. In a week I lost it all. hahaha, it makes me laugh now, but it took me more than a year to recover.

QuoteBy the way I like most of your picks now except NTES, JAKK, and TZOO maybe you can convince me on those 3.

NTES and JAKK are just great value stocks, if you read those stock's threads, I believe you'll see the bear's motives are unwarranted. TZOO is more complicated, my hands aren't as strong there.

QuoteWaiting for a good time to jump back in.  Everyone is scared that interest rates are going up - and they are.

Yeah, they're scared, that's why it is a good time to buy the dip. Nobody is surprised interest rates are going up, except maybe people that were holding bonds, like Michael for example. I guess Michael got out of his bonds and is looking to buy stocks now (are you Michael? That would be great, having your insights on stocks again :)). That money coming out of bonds needs to find a place, and it will find it in the stock market in my view.

QuoteMost do not realize it is not the rate that matters but the ease of getting money. The Fed is still pushing cash into the system. When they start to tighten (and with their stupidity
of the past you know they will) that is when the market will go down and not come
back.

Look for 10-year Treasury approaching a yield of 5.5%,  that's where yields will settle in the coming months."

Yes, I agree. But the most important trend going on now is globalization. It's a brand new World, different from all times in history. The only similar (but much smaller) situation was the 1500-1600 in Europe. We're living through one of the most fantastic periods for long term investing in the stock markets around the world in my view. This bull market has the potential to be even bigger than the 1982-2000 bull market.

QuoteKeep in mind the last time the Yield on the 10 Year Note rose above 5% was in the Spring of 2006 which was followed by a 1000 point drop in the Dow.  Thus it will be interesting to see if we will now see another multi week pullback develop in the coming weeks. Dow 13200, S&P 500 1487  support  to watch.

Nah, give it a couple of weeks and we'll be at new all time highs again, climbing a wall of worry. This bull market won't end without a big speculative wave at its end. It's always the same.

Hey, nice talking yukiii. Thanks for sharing your experiences.

As for TBSI, the stock rose 6.63% today. It's a wild horse that doesn't seem willing to go down to kiss the 50 days SMA. Waiting for it to catch up instead. Longer term there's only one way: up! Keep your hands strong on this one fellas.

Yeah, I am trying to find a balance, so I don't trade to much and not hold to many stocks.
For me it works to hold around five companies long term and trade the closed end funds. Like today
when oil started going up it was to late to buy any of the etf's or a single energy stock, so I bought
KYE a closed end energy fund. They always have a delayed reaction to news, because the big boys don't trade them, later it went up 2%. You can do that with oil and real state.  Or if the market is up 50 points
just check and see which closed end fund is down or not up much and load up. You just have to know what they are holding. I like trading ZF, DSF and ETG.

I bought AUO today you might want to take a look.

Sorry about the 33% I though you were up that much at one time.

The next two days are jampacked with excitement as the PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday should be huge market movers in one direction or the other. Then you have options expiration on Friday which may muddy the picture a bit and when coupled with a still oversold bond market, my guess is more short term confusion and less clarity. Finally, in the background you have the Shanghai market which should be right at the end of its sucker's rally. It traded as high as 4193 last night and may or may not push a bit higher but the bottom line is that if this bubble has truly burst we should start to see it decline extremely soon.

QuoteI bought AUO today you might want to take a look.

It looks nice from a technical standpoint, $13 B market cap, good luck :)

QuoteThe next two days are jampacked with excitement as the PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday should be huge market movers in one direction or the other. Then you have options expiration on Friday which may muddy the picture a bit and when coupled with a still oversold bond market, my guess is more short term confusion and less clarity.

Yeah, those reports remember me about my time in the futures markets. If I considered those reports for buying or selling stocks I would probably turnover the whole portfolio more than once a month, like you do. I'm not interested and not excited at all about those macro reports, I want to ignore macro developments and focus on a micro, business by business oriented strategy.

QuoteFinally, in the background you have the Shanghai market which should be right at the end of its sucker's rally. It traded as high as 4193 last night and may or may not push a bit higher but the bottom line is that if this bubble has truly burst we should start to see it decline extremely soon.

No stock market bubble in China. That bull market is about one year old. If we think of Japan's history, for example, the stock market was already very overvalued (by western slow growth standards) in the 1970's ... it still took more than 10 years for it to collapse. Greenspan and others say the Shangai Stock Exchange stocks are overvalued because they trade at 36 times earnings, while the US trades at 18 times earnings. But, if we consider the growth differential, with the US GDP growing 2% a year and China's GDP growing 10% a year, we see the valuation differences are warranted. Just a few macro long term thoughts ...

Coming back to TBSI, a new website was launched, for covering shipping stocks: Capital Link Shipping (http://shipping.capitallink.com/). But even cooler is TBSI's website (http://www.tbsship.com/).

Nothing changed from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll keep holding the stock.

FYI.
A list of what's been strong the past week

Daily Rankings of Major Global Markets, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest:

2.76% Brazil
2.31% Oil Services
2.27% South Korea
2.03% Oil
1.77% Natural Gas
1.76% Airlines
1.68% Energy
1.63% Germany
1.50% Austria
1.48% Dow Transports
1.35% Gold Mining
1.25% France
1.20% Mexico
1.19% Commodity Related
1.13% Italy
1.08% Semiconductors
1.08% Switzerland
1.06% Taiwan
1.01% Spain
0.97% Canada
0.94% Technology
0.94% Sweden
0.84% Netherlands
0.80% Dow Composite
0.80% Computer Tech
0.79% AMEX Composite
0.77% Materials
0.75% S&P Mid Caps
0.74% S&P Small Caps
0.73% Belgium
0.71% Consumer Discretionary
0.66% Nasdaq Composite
0.64% NYSE Composite
0.64% Hardware
0.63% Utilities
0.58% Value Line
0.56% Nasdaq 100
0.55% Russell 2000
0.55% United Kingdom
0.54% S&P 100
0.54% Hong Kong
0.53% Dow Industrial
0.51% Industrial
0.50% Russell 3000
0.49% Russell 1000
0.49% Wilshire 5000
0.48% S&P 500
0.42% Dow Utilities
0.38% Network
0.36% Internet
0.35% Retailers
0.34% Biotechs
0.32% Chemicals
0.29% Australia
0.29% Singapore
0.28% Health Care
0.26% DOT
0.25% Health Care Products
0.23% Hospitals
0.19% Disk Drives
0.17% Broker Dealers
0.15% Consumer Staples
0.14% Japan
0.12% Insurance
0.11% Euro Index
0.09% Paper
0.08% Health Care
0.07% US Dollar Index
-0.03% Canadian Dollar
-0.11% British Pound
-0.11% Swiss Franc
-0.16% Financial
-0.17% Banks
-0.17% 30Y T-Bond
-0.42% Drugs
-0.42% Malaysia
-0.42% Japanese Yen
-0.48% Australian Dollar
-1.06% REITs

TBSI was up 4.16% on Friday, and it was the second best performer of the Dry Bulk group:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38049;image)

Technically the stock continues to consolidate its recent gains, as it trades within the $20.3 - $24.36 trading range.

Fundamentally, TBSI is trading at 7 times next year earnings estimates:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38050;image)

The Shipping Industry trades at 14.19 times earnings:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38051;image)

So, this trade is simple. If TBSI's estimates are more or less correct and the stock trades at its industry average by the end of 2008, it will then be a $3.19*14.19 = $45.26 stock. That's roughly double what it is now, and that means a 42% average annual return on our investment.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

Again, TBSI was the second best of the Dry Bulk shipping companies:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38133;image)

Some people couldn't stand the volatility and were shaken out of this marvelous holding, but TBSI is getting ready to seriously reward the strong hands:

After being in the second place for two days in a row, TBSI took the first place:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38235;image)

Breaking out to a new all time high. Fundamental value is a lot higher. Just let the profits run.

i'd say it's a confirmed breakout if it closes positive today  ;D

Quote from: kpunarc on June 20, 2007, 11:12:51 AM
i'd say it's a confirmed breakout if it closes positive today  ;D

TBSI did it, just barely, but it closed positive. The Baltic Dry Index (http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm) recovered some more ground yesterday, even though stock markets around the world were down.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

TBSI looking strong going to $30 soon. DSX also looks good.

TBSI was again the best in class of the Drybulk shipping group:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38322;image)

I'll keep holding TBSI.

The Baltic Dry Index rebounded 4.4% on Friday:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38367;image)

Yet, TBSI couldn't stand the pressure for profits, since it has been up so much lately. The intraday dip was met by aggressive buyers and volume was above average, with 662,800 shares changing hands.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

Surprisingly enough the Baltic Dry Index rose some more yesterday:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38424;image)

And TBSI was the best of the Dry Bulk group (again):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38425;image)

The stock rose 1.79% yesterday, as the general market fell. I'll keep holding it, expecting to see $30 plus sooner rather than later.

Zacks made a few comments about TBSI today:

«TBS International Ltd. (NASDAQ: TBSI) is an ocean transportation services company that offers worldwide shipping solutions through liner, parcel and bulk services, and vessel chartering. Over the past two months, earnings estimates for this year and the second quarter advanced approximately 35% and 27%, respectively. As a result, the company was a leading Zacks #1 Rank last week as shares moved forward 14.3%.

In May, TBS International announced strong first quarter results thanks to continued market strength, as well as the consistent implementation of its business strategy the past several years. Total revenues reached $70.8 million, which was up 11% from the previous year's $63.8 million. Excluding items, earnings per share of 54 cents eclipsed the consensus by 35%. The result also easily surpassed the prior-year's performance.»

The Baltic Dry Index rose another 1.1%:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38466;image)

And TBSI outperformed its group (again):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38467;image)

Unfortunately some people were stopped out of TBSI near its lows. I'll keep holding the stock.

The BDI rose another 1.23% to 6180 points today, but unfortunately TBSI couldn't perform, it sold of a bit on profit taking. I welcome these healthy corrections, though, because they make the ascending trend more reliable.

Analysts covering the stock see $3.19 EPS for 2008 and no less than $2.20 for 2007. The stock should at least reach $30, and even there, it would still be quite cheap.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

from Zack:
TBS International (TBSI) has skyrocketed a mind-blowing 209% year-to-date. Growing cargo volumes and new businesses have helped TBS International exceed earnings estimates by double-digit percentages for three straight quarters.

Full Analysis

TBS International is an ocean transportation services company that offers worldwide shipping solutions through liner, parcel and bulk services, and vessel chartering. TBS has developed its business around key trade routes between Latin America and China, Japan and South Korea, as well as select ports in North America, Africa and the Caribbean. TBS provides frequent regularly scheduled voyages in its network, as well as cargo scheduling, loading and discharge for its customers. Its services primarily carry steel products, salt, sugar, grain, fertilizers, chemicals, metal concentrates, aggregates and general cargo. As of month-end March, its controlled fleet consisted of 33 vessels.

On May 14, the Zacks #1 Rank stock reported first-quarter earnings of 54 cents per share, up from 26 cents in the year-ago period and 14 cents above expectations. The 35% surprise marked the third consecutive quarter that earnings surpassed analysts' estimates by a double-digit percentage. Driving the strong earnings growth, revenues climbed 11% to $70.8 million due to strong demand in the bulk cargo market.

The company has also benefited from expanding cargo volumes and new business, such as a new parcel trade shipping timber and steel parcels from Brazil and Argentina to the Mediterranean, and coal from the north coast of Latin America to Brazil and Argentina. In addition, average charter rates have increased 35.8% to $16,740 per day from $12,330 per day a year ago.

In 2006, the company generated over 55% of its international revenues from key South American countries including: Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Venezuela. Continued economic growth in this region should result in further earnings momentum for this niche shipping player.

Following the company's impressive first-quarter results, full-year 2007 estimates were increased by 61 cents to $2.35. Also, next year's estimates were summarily raised by 78 cents to $3.19, implying earnings growth of 35.7%. Lastly, the company is currently rated a number one out of 44 companies in the Transportation-Shipping category.

TBSI has risen an astonishing 209% year-to-date after gaining an impressive 31.6% in 2006. On Jun 5, TBSI rose to record highs before slipping roughly 19%. The stock then proceeded to rally over 34% to current levels. As the dry bulk market continues to grow, the direction of future momentum should remain positive. However, due to the amazing gains this stock has already delivered, investors should exercise caution and monitor their positions closely.

incl audio file:
http://www.zacks.com/rank/zcommentary/?id=5349
chart:

Zack's has been giving very nice publicity to TBSI and not without cause, after all fundamentals have been improving significantly and TBSI is "the best shipping company".

I think the following paragraph is what is moving the stock in this very decisive bullish way:

«Following the company's impressive first-quarter results, full-year 2007 estimates were increased by 61 cents to $2.35. Also, next year's estimates were summarily raised by 78 cents to $3.19, implying earnings growth of 35.7%. Lastly, the company is currently rated a number one out of 44 companies in the Transportation-Shipping category.»

However, my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=TBSI&portfolio=main) says that there are just 29% left to the optimal selling price of $39.14.

Moreover, I had just 1% dilution factor in the model, but the company announced the following on June 29th:

TBS International files for $300 mln mixed shelf (http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070629:MTFH09748_2007-06-29_19-52-11_N29424693&type=comktNews&rpc=44)

This means dilution will probably be much higher than my estimate and that will have a downward effect on those EPS estimates (or the real numbers).

I wonder if the very positive estimates weren't "ordered" to price this offering of securities at the highest possible price.

I'm suspicious of TBSI's intentions and I see heavy dilution going forward. If I change my dilution factor to 10% instead of 1%, the optimal selling price will be lower than yesterday's closing price.

I opt to take profits on TBSI. The trading plan is SELL.

Continues setting new highs. David made big mistake selling this winner and holding losers.

 ;)

 TBS International Limited Announces Date for the Release of the Third Quarter 2007 Results, Conference Call and Webcast
Monday , October 22, 2007 16:05ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200603/250144_tbs.gif

HAMILTON, BERMUDA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 10/22/07 -- TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced today that after the market closes in New York on Thursday, November 8, 2007 it will release its results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007.

The next day, Friday, November 9, 2007 at 10:00 a.m. EST, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

Conference call details:

Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes before the scheduled time using the following numbers: 1-866-770-7129 (from the US) or 1-617-213-8067 (International Dial in). Participant Passcode: 78498720. The conference call will also be webcast live on the company's website: www.tbsship.com by clicking on the webcast link.

Replay:

A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available from 12:00 p.m. EST on Friday, November 9, 2007 until Friday, November 16, 2007 by dialing 1-888-286-8010 (from the US) or 1-617-801-6888 (from outside the US). Access Code: 29800490. A replay of the webcast will be available soon after the completion of the call.

Webcast:

There will also be a live -- and then archived -- slides and audio webcast of the conference call on the company's website www.tbsship.com, which can be accessed by clicking on the webcast link. As soon as practicable, the webcast and the corresponding slides will be archived and will also be accessible on our website.

awesome chart:

Quote from: BigSully1 on August 08, 2007, 12:48:18 PM
Continues setting new highs. David made big mistake selling this winner and holding losers.

Indeed Sully, this was one of my biggest mistakes in 2007, selling TBSI for a paltry 34% profit :-[ Joining this I would put JASO and EXM, other 100% plus gainers which I let go for a small profit or loss. But I believe these mistakes taught me an important lesson for the future, the value of patience.

I've been watching TBSI rise from the sidelines, but now that the company reported spectacular 3rd quarter results (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071108/0326414.html) I can't take it anymore. I need to buy back TBSI, this time with a very long term horizon.

Here's why:

- TBSI made EPS of $0.96 in the 3rd quarter 2007, up from $0.33 in Q3 2006. I expect revenues and EPS to keep growing strongly over the next five years, because one thing we're certain that it won't slow down is international trade. With the internet it is easy to see where the best products at the best prices are, but products still need to move from one side of the World to the other, and they go by ship. I expect demand for TBSI's vessel services to keep growing immensely over the next 5 - 10 years and this means higher prices and higher profit margins;

- The two analysts covering the stock are calling for $4.27 EPS in 200 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI)8, but I believe it will be more, since the company is on track to make, I would say, $3 plus this year (it already made $2.24 in the first nine months of the year);

- One of the most impressive things about these results is that they were accomplished with many of the company's ships in dry dock:

«"Our accelerated drydock and vessel upgrade program is on schedule. For 2007, we plan to drydock 19 of our 33 vessels and one vessel that we plan to acquire during the fourth quarter, for approximately 990 drydock days in total. During the first nine months, we had 17 vessels in drydock for a total of 823 days, of which 261 days were in the third quarter of 2007.»

990 days in total minus 893 in the first nine months tells me there will be 167 dry dock days in Q4 2007, compared with 261 days in the 3rd. This tells me that probably Q4 EPS will be even higher than the $0.96 reported in Q3, bringing the overall 2007 EPS number to, say, $3.20 - $3.50 level.

I also appreciate the fact that TBSI actually reduced its average number of shares outstanding a bit (much different from NM, which has been heavily diluting shareholder's value).

I've been wanting to buy something in the Shipping Industry, to try to compensate for the huge misses in TBSI and EXM. But TBSI was the best and it still is the best in my opinion.

I feel somewhat embarrassed about buying this stock so much higher than from where I took a 34% profit (see what one gets for trading, instead of investing for the long term?), but I need to correct my mistakes and in this case I'll do it by buying back TBSI around today's open.

I see the stock is about unchanged from yesterday's close and I welcome that others are fearful.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy TBSI, 6.66% of capital as usual.

David, have you considered DRYS, its forward P/E is only 6, half of TBSI's forward P/E.  Also DRYS is now at its 50 day.  It seems that DRYS has more cash on hand and has taken advantage of the spot market thereby increasing revenues at a faster pace than the other shippers.   Just wondering why you like TBSI better than DRYS?

this is probably the reason why TBSI and not DRYS was picked by David:

World's Scariest Stock: DryShips
By Rich "Cap'n Blood" Smith October 29, 2007 Comments (20)

Ahoy, investors! Methinks me sees a ghost ship cresting the horizon. Sails tattered, the Jolly Roger hoisted -- why, it's not just a ghost ship, it's a ghost ship manned by pirates, arggh! And its brig is crammed with the lost souls of investors, imprisoned behind the iron bars of logic.

The Flying Dutchman, you say? Nay, landlubber. This is something faaaaar scarier. This is Athenian cargo carrier DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS).

Gasp! What's that sound?
Originally chartered to ferry loads of coal, steel, and other commodities across the waves, DryShips bears a different cargo today. You can hear the wails of lamentation emanating from its hull, the moans of investors who've publicly panned DryShips' stock on Motley Fool CAPS -- and suffered the consequences:

TMFOtter: "In the 1990's, the last time capital was cheap, [DryShips CEO George Economou] took an identical company public and evaporated every last penny of shareholder capital."

Steve819 [Quoting Barron's editor Kathryn M. Welling]: "When someone asked why he was [taking his company public, Economou] actually said, basically, 'Because Americans are the dumbest investors around, and there's lots of liquidity in this market.'"

Allstar13913: "The CEO is crooked, and directly owns a competing company." (privately owned Cardiff Marine, Inc.)

TMFEldrehad: "'We do not intend to sell shares,' [Economou] said. This means the company can put a big part of equity back into buying vessels. Economou added: 'We can deliver more money for every dollar invested in the company.'... Selling shares in a secondary offering will result in more equity with which to buy ships, but that's not what he's saying -- he's saying not selling shares translates into more equity. I need some Dramamine, because my head feels like it's spinning from trying to understand this."

These CAPS players have three things in common. First, they're all extremely leery of DryShips' management. Second, they're all good enough investors that their concerns should be your concerns, too. Each and every one ranks in the top 1% of investors tracked by CAPS. Third and finally -- they've all lost big time in their bets against DryShips, in some cases, seeing the stock rise more than 1,000% since placing their bearish bets.

Madness
Has an epidemic of insanity swept the coast of CAPS-land? Or is there truly something wrong with DryShips? As one of the many investors who've seen their CAPS ranking decimated by betting against the company, I've asked myself this question more than once. But the more I look, the more I see red flags waving alongside the skull-and-crossbones at DryShips.

In what sane universe do capital-intensive companies like these deserve multiples to book value approaching those of asset-lite profit leaders like Google and Microsoft?

And while I'll grant you that the dry bulk shipping industry is booming, I fail to see why a single player within this industry -- DryShips -- should enjoy a valuation more than 50% higher than its nearest rival, and more than twice that of some of the ships giving more distant chase.

Sure, it gets the best margins of the bunch, but that just raises more flags. Reviewing DryShips' results, we see that much of its profit over the past year was derived from gains on the sale of assets. Meanwhile, the firm's cash flow statements don't show this supposedly wildly profitable firm generating any cash profits since its IPO. On the contrary, over the last year, the firm has burned through nearly $500 million in free cash flow, as its long-term debt ballooned from $418 million to $728 million. Somewhere, this corporate ship has sprung a leak.

If DryShips can't generate free cash flow on sky-high margins, I shudder to think what will happen when those profit margins splash back down to sea level. And you should to -- because this is the scariest stock in the world.

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/10/29/dryships-is-haunted.aspx


cheers
Oliver

Good Morning la-onda,
Thank you for posting about DRYS. I saw the post by Motley Fools and should had posted the information. I got out awhile ago.

awesome results imho, from TA side looks like the bottom

Q3 slides:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/19/191/191718/items/269389/TBSI_Q307Presentation.pdf
quotation:

Thanks for these slides La-onda :)

Those dry-dock days, and they were many in 2007, represent a cost and not a revenue for TBSI, at least over the short term. But they're necessary to keep the long term health of the business.

TBSI grew EPS in the 3rd quarter by 174%, from $0.35 a year ago to $0.96 in Q3 2007. And, according to analysts' estimates calling for $4.27 EPS in 2008 (I think it will be more), the stock is trading at 12.5 times forward earnings. I call this very cheap.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Do someone has any ideas why TBSI lost 20% today?
Profit taking?

Short term moves are based on fear or greed. Take your pick, that 's what's going on IMO. Do i like it? no. Still,i bought more tbsi at the end of the session.

Quote from: terainvestment on November 12, 2007, 04:23:30 PM
Do someone has any ideas why TBSI lost 20% today?
Profit taking?

I guess it was profit taking and people fearing/expecting a global economic slowdown to take freight rates down and therefore take TBSI's revenues and earnings down. I totally disagree with this view, if there's one thing that I'm absolutely confident that will keep growing strongly is demand for maritime transportation.

TBSI derived 71% of its $92 M revenue in Q3 2007 from outside the US:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41860;image)

And I'm expected to sell this stock, trading at less than 10 times 2008 expected earnings, because of a potential US slowdown?

I'm not going to do it. I feel the pain of a 20% one day drop like everybody else, but I remain convinced that TBSI is an $80 plus stock and I'll keep holding it for the long term.

EXM getting clobbered after hours,tugging TBSI with it

Shipping index is hitting new high, so the natural conclusion is TBSI is taking business away from EXM?

Also TBSI is more diversified than EXM and I am under the impression that last time David mentioned EXM's fleet is pretty old, my memory could be wrong ...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071113/sector_snap_drybulk_shippers.html?.v=1

Quote from: soxguy on November 13, 2007, 04:24:58 PM
EXM getting clobbered after hours,tugging TBSI with it

urrh, what is up with TBSI today?  I understand that EXM missed, but DSX beat the street and TBSI gets taken out to the woodshed again.  David, are the shipping stocks being taken down to reflect a slowing economy in terms of P/E?  It sucks to watch the shipping sector fly for months, then all of a sudden we buy and it decides to go down.  Guess we'll see what happens next week.

I hope this helps the shipping stocks soon.

http://www.livemint.com/2007/11/15000635/Freight-seen-costlier-ahead-of.html

QuoteShipping index is hitting new high, so the natural conclusion is TBSI is taking business away from EXM?

Nah, EXM had great earnings, it's just that it missed analysts expectations, which were extremely inflated. I mean, analysts are expecting $7.28 EPS for EXM next year (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=EXM):

Excel Maritime Drops 11% After Missing Forecasts (http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/14/excel-shipping-earnings-market-equities-cx_1114markets32.html?partner=yahootix)

QuoteAlso TBSI is more diversified than EXM and I am under the impression that last time David mentioned EXM's fleet is pretty old, my memory could be wrong ...

I don't recall this either, but I guess TBSI's fleet is older than EXM's, since TBSI has 35 vessels, and EXM has just 18 vessels. However, TBSI's operating margin in Q3 was 31.9% and EXM's operating margin was 50%. Does this mean EXM is able to charge more for their ships, because they're younger?

Let me check this ... EXM's average age is 12.9 years. TBSI's is ...

«In the last three years, the TBS owned and controlled fleet has grown from 12 to 33 vessels by September 30, 2007, with an average age of about 21 years.»

TBSI looks awesome from a fundamental standpoint, but EXM looks even better, at least on a first sight analysis. Here's why:

EXM closed yesterday at $46.94 and analysts' average estimate for 2008 EPS is $7.28 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=EXM). TBSI closed yesterday at $44.28 and 2008 average analyst EPS estimate is $4.27 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI).

This means EXM is trading at 6.4 times forward earnings and TBSI at 9.6 times, therefore EXM seems more attractive. If it was a few days ago I could buy EXM exclusively on this thought ... but I must adopt a new "investigation process". One that takes more time and effort, in line with what I've written at UTVG's thread today.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

mbaugh, you seem somewhat anxious about TBSI, did you buy call options instead of shares? (don't reply if you don't want to)

Good luck :)

No David, I don't do options.  I'm just frustrated since TBSI has moved down rather hard and fast.  I know it can recover just as quick.  I think my problem is that I read too many negative news stories and it has started to make me a little more nervous about keeping open positions.  That's why I look forward to your posts, you help keep the light shining for everyone.  Thanks!

Mbaugh

QuoteNo David, I don't do options.

That's good to know. More than 90% of people who play with options lose money over the long term.

QuoteI'm just frustrated since TBSI has moved down rather hard and fast. I think my problem is that I read too many negative news stories and it has started to make me a little more nervous about keeping open positions.

Yes, the Main is losing roughly 19% in TBSI, in just three days invested (dips always go deeper than we think). The general market has been extremely volatile and investors are nervous. This is usually when it pays to be fundamentally based and long term oriented.

Looking at the following table we see that TBSI's fundamental improvement over the last 12 months was nothing short of exceptional:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41923;image)

Look how a 41% increase in revenues lead to a 174% jump in fully diluted EPS, to $0.96 in the 3rd quarter.

TBSI has been beating analysts' estimates every quarter, so they've been forced to raise their full year 2007 and 2008 projections:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41924;image)

Currently for 2008 analysts expect TBSI to earn $4.27 per share, so its forward earnings multiple is 10. EPS grew 174% from a year ago and the P/E is 10, so this is an incredibly attractive combination.

It tells me investors are extremely worried about the global economy and they've priced in exactly that. I believe the actual reality will be far better than the current doom & gloom prognosis, actually I expect strong global economic growth to continue.

I'll elaborate on this macro call further over the next update for TBSI. I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Anyone else here holding TBSI?  I'm hoping that they don't take it down to its 200 dma.
Any thoughts?

I have this too. All these dry shippers like exm and drys have been selling off. It's the sector. Don't know how far down,but you can say that for most stocks recently.

I own TBSI too....another excellent minus 6% for my portfolio today...I look forward for margin calls and forced closing of my positions.

Then, the bankruptcy

I bought with David too. It looks like the stock is heavily correcting. If the market stays this fickle, I think it will take it down to 200SMA, possibly.

Hey, Terra, why do you buy on margin? I gave this up long ago, after having lost 50% of my capital on short positions. I no longer sell short, nor do I use margin.

  Nevertheless, my porfolio is going into red full steam compared to its inception value 2 years ago.  :'(

Call me a weak hand, but IMO, TBSI will follow EXM and DRYS in terms of its forward P/E.  Both EXM and DRYS are trading at 5 times forward earnings and TBSI is trading at 9 times forward P/E.  It seems TBSI will catch up will the other two and may fall to 5 times its Forward P/E which would put it at 21.4.  I hope not! I sold my shares this morning at 40 at a loss. 

whats causing it to trade with a much higher forward PE?

Lets face it. If you are sitting on more then 400% profit since the start of year then would not you sell some if there is some uncertanity in the mkt. TBSI is being hammered due to the same reason, it was more then 400% up year to day when it was bought for the main.

That's exactly why I don't invest in stocks anymore.  I trade only credit spreads.  I didn't have a spread on this stock, but I had one on DRYS (bull put spread).  When the stocks in this sector turned over, my stop was hit (a contingency to buy back the short put), and I made a fortune on my remaining long puts as the stock was tanking.

I would really like to see another portfolio on 3SOF, dedicated to options in various strategies.  I guarantee you'll have a lot better performance than any of the portfolios you have now!   8)

QuoteI guarantee you'll have a lot better performance than any of the portfolios you have now!    8)

I guarantee you'll lose all your money in less than a year. Do you want to give it a try at managing such portfolio Leaira? Thanks.

Quote from: mbaugh on November 19, 2007, 12:52:15 PM
Call me a weak hand, but IMO, TBSI will follow EXM and DRYS in terms of its forward P/E.  Both EXM and DRYS are trading at 5 times forward earnings and TBSI is trading at 9 times forward P/E.  It seems TBSI will catch up will the other two and may fall to 5 times its Forward P/E which would put it at 21.4.  I hope not! I sold my shares this morning at 40 at a loss. 

You're a weak hand ! You're also a brave and honest man. Thanks for your testimony and contribution to this thread mbaugh.

I guess the only reason why TBSI is trading at a higher than average relative to its peers earnings multiple is because its 2008 estimates weren't upgraded yet, since there are just two analysts covering the stock. Look, we just got an upgrade:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41994;image)

From $4.27 to $4.51 EPS estimate for 2008.

I agree with Stocky, TBSI is down because it was up quite a lot in 2007. But I believe the rise was for a very good reason and shares are extremely cheap at this point and should rebound towards the end of the year.

As I look at TBSI's markets, especially the ones in South America ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41995;image)

... I don't see how they won't keep growing their international commerce.

I don't understand why the Shipping Industry is so cheap now while it is growing and set to grow so fast in the upcoming years, in my view. Is it because of that old theory that with the prices up companies will just buy many more ships, driving supply also up and ultimately putting pressure on prices and margins?

I don't think the industry would do this harm to themselves. The story is different, it's just that today we have fast growing trading partners in the World where before there weren't any ... the big majority of trade and transportation was made between the US and Europe. Now we have the Rest of the World participating and that's driving up demand for maritime transportation and that's not likely to slowdown anytime soon in my view, because these emerging economies are still very far away from the end of their expansion. I believe we'll have ten more years of it.

Anyway, TBSI's chart is, how should I say it, perfectly bearish. Everything points South on the technicals ... but I expect this to change sooner rather than later, you know how a couple of weeks of positive activity can change a chart completely, it is so volatile.

I thought about throwing more money at it and also buy EXM, but ... well, I'll wait a bit longer before buying anything new, my recent picks have performed quite poorly.

I agree it is a good idea to hold some, sell some and wait with cash when things are this shaky. Our problem here is that we typically meet the tough corrections fully loaded. I know it is hard to avoid, but we should probably sell dodgy stocks, like CHME once we smell the smoke, hold sound businesses, like TBSI and not invest more until we are at the end of a sharp decline (this is a sticky point, it is rather judemental to determine such point, but indicators setravis uses may help).

Market goes up and my portfolio goes down...I have chosen a very bad week to quit smoking...

This stock is a rollercoaster.  How do you do +10% to -7% and counting.

I've been listening to the Dry Bulk CEO Forum with CEO's from DRYS, EXM and TBSI and so far I got some interesting information. They say there's a disconnect between the stock's and the fundamentals of the companies, since futures on freight rates point to higher rates in 2008 and there are signs demand can only improve for the companies' markets. Anyway, they probably wouldn't say anything negative even if that was the reality.

I believe the Shipping stocks are suffering because they're cataloged as "cyclicals" and everybody and his mother and grandmother thinks the economic cycle will take a turn for the worse in 2008. But, even though there are economic cycles, there's no doubt that the World needs and will need even more shipping services than in the past, so there's long term growth in the industry.

Soon we'll have a transcript of the forum and I'll update TBSI's analysis again. The stock just had a 58% drawdown to the ascending 200 days SMA. I wish I bought "more deeper", but I believe this stock will be at new all time highs in the first half of 2008, it is trading at just 6.5 times 2008 EPS estimates (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI).

I've requested a transcript of the Forum at http://shipping.capitallink.com/ but still didn't receive it in my e-mail. Damn it, I was such a chicken in not buying EXM on that profound dip, since the stock was so obviously undervalued (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=exm). It is up 34% in a couple of days :-[

Anyway, I still think TBSI is the best. 1st of all, TBSI never diluted shareholders value (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=tbsi&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), which is rare in Shipping companies. Compare it to NM (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=nm&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), DRYS (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=drys&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) or EXM (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=exm&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) itself. TBSI seems to be the only one truly interested in building long term value for shareholders, and not pump and dumps. I find analysts' sudden optimism and big raise in estimates for EXM a bit alarming (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=exm). People are much more conservative in TBSI, but both companies have the same outlook which depends heavily on demand and freight rates prices.

I love Shipping stocks at this point because they're growing very strongly and yet they're incredibly cheap. This happens because people are very pessimistic about the US economy. Well, TBSI's business is almost 80% international, with routes between South America and Asia and South America and Europe, so there's no point ...

Anyway, I'm still taking a 32% bath in TBSI ... and I'll keep just this one Shipping stock in the Main Portfolio, I've never done well when tried to copy cat stories just because they were in the same industry.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

I still wasn't able to get the transcript of that Forum with the CEO's of TBSI, EXM and DRYS. I need to e-mail www.capitallinkshipping.com again.

On this update I just want to note that TBSI regained its "best in the group" status over the last couple of days:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42234;image)

I'm still losing 18.5% in TBSI (at one point I was losing 40% plus), but I expect to close 2007 in the green in this stock. Less than 1 month to go, so we'll see.

For 2008 I expect TBSI to keep surprising analysts and possibly earn $6 per share, and that should mean a $90 stock by year's end.

I'll keep holding TBSI.

TBSI is holding up well while the other shipping stocks fall.  I'm thinking of buying EXM, any opinions from the chart experts as to when a good entry might be?  I believe it is oversold and maybe tomorrow will offer a good entry price.  Thanks.

Quote from: mbaugh on December 04, 2007, 03:59:19 PM
TBSI is holding up well while the other shipping stocks fall.  I'm thinking of buying EXM, any opinions from the chart experts as to when a good entry might be?  I believe it is oversold and maybe tomorrow will offer a good entry price.  Thanks.

Hi mbaugh, I hope everything is fine with you. Remember you stopped out of TBSI at $40? That looked like a good attitude at the time, especially when the stock fell below $30. You could have sold out at $40 and got back in $10 below, but did you? No ... yesterday TBSI closed just above $44 and I see it at about $46 in today's pre-market.

It's strange, TBSI had relative weakness. Now it has relative strength. After all this didn't mean anything for the medium term developments. Nor for the long term and not for if one makes any money holding it or not. Given this, I ignore this technical information, because it's worthless to anyone with an investment time frame superior to a week.

I'm still losing 17.5% in TBSI, due to poor short term timing. I'll try to remember, next time I want to buy a stock on a dip, to wait for the dip to be really deep ... say, to the 200 days SMA like it happened with TBSI.

As for EXM, I don't know about the chart (you didn't ask me either), but even though I like it as the 2nd best in the Shipping industry, I would buy the #1, which is TBSI in my opinion.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term, good luck mbaugh :)

Hi David, thanks for the response.  Yes I did sell TBSI at 40 since I was extremely weak and am still learning to be stronger like you.  However, I did buy it back at 29.80 and will not let it go this time.  As for EXM, I feel that it has the exact same potential as TBSI so why not buy it and hold it as well (I'm buying today).  I know I'll develop strong hands one day (with your help of course!) ;D  I'm trying different things to help me develop this approach such as writing down all my mistakes and reviewing them on a daily basis.  Another thing I do now is each night before i go to bed I write myself a short note for the next day.  My notes to myself remind me to stay calm and focused (sounds weird, but it works for me!)

Good Luck everyone and Happy Holidays! ;D

QuoteHowever, I did buy it back at 29.80 and will not let it go this time.

Wow, I'm very happy you were able to do that ... incredible trading skills man. Congrats and Happy Holidays :D

TBSI had been strong, yesterday it was weak. Perhaps it was just closing the small gap you see on the chart ... I'm late today, let me just say that I'll keep holding.

If somebody could explain to me what 25 basis points in the FED funds rate mean to the commerce between South America and Europe and South America and Asia I could understand TBSI's almost 10% fall yesterday.

Since nobody can, I say the stock just got cheaper.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

QuoteSince nobody can, I say the stock just got cheaper.

Well, it got even cheaper yesterday ::)

• TBS International Limited Announces the Acquisition of Two Sister Tweendeckers Expanding Its Fleet to 42 Vessels (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071217/0340352.html)
Marketwire (Mon 8:51am)

TBSI paid $46 M for two vessels, expanding its fleet to 42 vessels. On a rough estimate I would say that if 2 are worth $46 M, then 42 are worth $966 M. Total debt is $201 M. TBSI's market cap currently is a little less than $900 M.

I would say TBSI is valued at more or less the value of its assets net of liabilities. This doesn't consider the company's earnings power and growth, given by strong demand for shipping services between South America and Asia and South America and Europe.

A new issue coming up in this globalization era is that international commerce is growing around the World, not just between North America, Europe and the Rest of the World, but also within what we usually call the Rest of the World. China's influence in the World is felt not just in North America and Europe, but especially in the rest of Asia, Africa and South America.

TBSI touched the 200 days SMA again. I believe a double bottom is in the making.

I'll continue holding TBSI for the long term.   

There was a press release out from TBSI yesterday:

• TBS International Limited Exercises Its Purchase Options for Seven Tweendeck Vessels in Its Fleet (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071218/0341460.html)
Marketwire (Tue, Dec 18)

«Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "By exercising our purchase options, TBS now owns these vessels outright instead of operating them under a capital lease arrangement. These assets have appreciated significantly, given the current strong market environment, the shortage of high quality second-hand tweendecker vessels and our intensive fleet upgrade and maintenance program. We believe TBS will be able to benefit from the additional equity that has built up in these assets for our continued business development and fleet growth."»

Indeed, take a look at the following chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42675;image)

People are thinking that Shipping is a cyclical industry and they believe the cycle has already turned down, so they're pricing TBSI at just 7.7 times 2008 estimated EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI).

But I believe the sharp increase in demand for shipping services is a structural development, not cyclical. In my view demand will be much higher than what it was in the past and it will never return to previous levels.

Here's why:

1 - There are new large economies in the World growing fast and participating in international trade like never before. I'm talking specifically about China, India, Russia and Brazil.

2 - There's the internet. Before, there could be better or cheaper products available elsewhere in the World, but not many people knew that. Now in a few minutes study you can find out where are the best products in the World to suit your needs, in terms of quality/price. You calculate the price of shipping and order them from the other side of the World. These products need to move around by air or sea.

I believe much higher levels of demand for shipping services are already here and that will keep growing. Therefore TBSI's revenues and profits will also increase for the foreseeable future. It doesn't make any sense to me to value the industry at less than 10 times earnings.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

fyi:
TBS exercises purchase options for seven tweendeck vessels
Thursday , December 20, 2007 07:40ET

Dec 20, 2007 (Datamonitor via COMTEX) -- TBS International Limited, an ocean transportation services company, has announced that, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, it has exercised its options to purchase seven of its multipurpose tweendeck vessels for $2.85 million each.

The seven vessels are part of TBS' operational fleet and since December 2003 have been under a 66-month sale-leaseback arrangement, which provided TBS with purchase options.

These seven multipurpose tweendeck vessels are the MVs Kickapoo Belle, a 23,319 dwt vessel built in 1987; Seneca Maiden, a 19,762 dwt vessel built in 1986; Navajo Princess, 1987 built, 21,902 dwt; Kiowa Princess, 1986 built, 19,762 dwt; Cherokee Princess, 1990 built, 23,286 dwt; Inca Maiden, 1986 built, 22,133 dwt; and Apache Maiden, 1987 built, 23,319 dwt.

TBS fleet comprises 42 vessels in total with an aggregate of 1.22 million dwt, including 23 tweendeckers and 19 handymax / handysize bulk carriers. This includes six vessels, three multipurpose tweendeckers and three handy size bulk carriers, which TBS has agreed to acquire and have been scheduled for delivery to TBS by the end of the first quarter of 2008.

Joseph Royce, chairman, CEO and president of TBS, said: "By exercising our purchase options, TBS now owns these vessels outright instead of operating them under a capital lease arrangement. These assets have appreciated significantly, given the current strong market environment, the shortage of high quality second-hand tweendecker vessels and our intensive fleet upgrade and maintenance program."

Thanks for posting the news la-onda :)

TBSI is incredibly volatile, it doesn't even look like a $30 plus stock. Yesterday the stock dipped in an attempt to close the gap at $31.5, but the low of the day was $31.66 ... there were too many buyers in that area to completely fill the gap. But I think nobody will notice the micro-gap still open a few months from now.

We're right at the long term support now. My belief, given the fundamentals of the shipping industry and the company's intrinsic fundamentals, is that after this huge dip the stock will trend higher and make a move above $100 a share in 2008.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

David

May you explane why TBSI better than DRYS?
DRYS projections are fantastic, EPS for 2008 something like $15-20   :o

Best,
Notbeln

Quote from: notbeln on December 24, 2007, 05:43:34 AM
David

May you explane why TBSI better than DRYS?
DRYS projections are fantastic, EPS for 2008 something like $15-20   :o

Best,
Notbeln

Hi Notbeln, la-onda once posted an article about DRYS which is quite discouraging:

«this is probably the reason why TBSI and not DRYS was picked by David:

World's Scariest Stock: DryShips
By Rich "Cap'n Blood" Smith October 29, 2007 Comments (20)

Ahoy, investors! Methinks me sees a ghost ship cresting the horizon. Sails tattered, the Jolly Roger hoisted -- why, it's not just a ghost ship, it's a ghost ship manned by pirates, arggh! And its brig is crammed with the lost souls of investors, imprisoned behind the iron bars of logic.

The Flying Dutchman, you say? Nay, landlubber. This is something faaaaar scarier. This is Athenian cargo carrier DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS).

Gasp! What's that sound?
Originally chartered to ferry loads of coal, steel, and other commodities across the waves, DryShips bears a different cargo today. You can hear the wails of lamentation emanating from its hull, the moans of investors who've publicly panned DryShips' stock on Motley Fool CAPS -- and suffered the consequences:

TMFOtter: "In the 1990's, the last time capital was cheap, [DryShips CEO George Economou] took an identical company public and evaporated every last penny of shareholder capital."

Steve819 [Quoting Barron's editor Kathryn M. Welling]: "When someone asked why he was [taking his company public, Economou] actually said, basically, 'Because Americans are the dumbest investors around, and there's lots of liquidity in this market.'"

Allstar13913: "The CEO is crooked, and directly owns a competing company." (privately owned Cardiff Marine, Inc.)

TMFEldrehad: "'We do not intend to sell shares,' [Economou] said. This means the company can put a big part of equity back into buying vessels. Economou added: 'We can deliver more money for every dollar invested in the company.'... Selling shares in a secondary offering will result in more equity with which to buy ships, but that's not what he's saying -- he's saying not selling shares translates into more equity. I need some Dramamine, because my head feels like it's spinning from trying to understand this."

These CAPS players have three things in common. First, they're all extremely leery of DryShips' management. Second, they're all good enough investors that their concerns should be your concerns, too. Each and every one ranks in the top 1% of investors tracked by CAPS. Third and finally -- they've all lost big time in their bets against DryShips, in some cases, seeing the stock rise more than 1,000% since placing their bearish bets.

Madness
Has an epidemic of insanity swept the coast of CAPS-land? Or is there truly something wrong with DryShips? As one of the many investors who've seen their CAPS ranking decimated by betting against the company, I've asked myself this question more than once. But the more I look, the more I see red flags waving alongside the skull-and-crossbones at DryShips.

In what sane universe do capital-intensive companies like these deserve multiples to book value approaching those of asset-lite profit leaders like Google and Microsoft?

And while I'll grant you that the dry bulk shipping industry is booming, I fail to see why a single player within this industry -- DryShips -- should enjoy a valuation more than 50% higher than its nearest rival, and more than twice that of some of the ships giving more distant chase.

Sure, it gets the best margins of the bunch, but that just raises more flags. Reviewing DryShips' results, we see that much of its profit over the past year was derived from gains on the sale of assets. Meanwhile, the firm's cash flow statements don't show this supposedly wildly profitable firm generating any cash profits since its IPO. On the contrary, over the last year, the firm has burned through nearly $500 million in free cash flow, as its long-term debt ballooned from $418 million to $728 million. Somewhere, this corporate ship has sprung a leak.

If DryShips can't generate free cash flow on sky-high margins, I shudder to think what will happen when those profit margins splash back down to sea level. And you should to -- because this is the scariest stock in the world.

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/10/29/dryships-is-haunted.aspx

cheers
Oliver»

Happy Christmas :)

Quote from: notbeln on December 24, 2007, 05:43:34 AM
David

May you explane why TBSI better than DRYS?
DRYS projections are fantastic, EPS for 2008 something like $15-20   :o

Best,
Notbeln

Do your DD on DRYS..the CEO is a loose cannon.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10799.0

Thank you .  ;)

Happy Cristmas !

Nice bonus for the hard working fellows.

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001065648-07-000071&Type=HTML (http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001065648-07-000071&Type=HTML)

I wonder if the CFO will complain, he only got a meager $0.5M bonus.

I know berloga,  I was starting to feel sorry for this "poor" guy, BUT then I check insider information. Looks like over the month of November he sold over a million dollars in stocks (25,000 shares).  :-\
Chee, I don't feel sorry for him anymore.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TBSI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TBSI)

Happy New Year!

David,
Does it concern you the dry baltic index has fallen almost 20% in the past few weeks?    Probably the reason the stock has fallen so much.

Man, is this market tough or what?  Does TBSI really deserve to fall this far?  Its amazing how one day the market loves the shipping sector and buy all they can and then WHAM! the world slows down the next day and shipping sucks!  Today in my local newspaper there's an article talking about how the shipping boom is over, its titled "Shipshape no Longer?" The article quotes two analyst, Oppenheimer Tim Tiberio who states that "an increase in the number of ships subdued rates as demand dipped around the holidays."  Analyst Natasha Boyden from Cantor Fitzgerald states that "new ship building has caught up with demand faster than expected and therefore drybulk shares will likely start to pull back this year."

So basically, we now have two many ships and not enough demand.  Gee, why do all the shipping companies keep buying more ships if theres no demand?  These analyst change their minds so quick, it wouldn't surprise me if a week later they come out a say "buy all you can in the shipping sector, demand is outpacing supply!"  Anyways, I'm  confused, because since the market is irrational, it can take longer for TBSI to go back up or does someone here believe that TBSI can't stay this low for long?

Quote from: jrtabor on January 04, 2008, 03:24:15 PM
David,
Does it concern you the dry baltic index has fallen almost 20% in the past few weeks?    Probably the reason the stock has fallen so much.

Not really jrtabor, I believe it is a correction in a long term rising trend:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42976;image)

Even if the Baltic Dry Index stays between 6,000 and 8,000 for a very long time, I think that is enough for TBSI to remain very profitable and expand its revenues and profits.

QuoteSo basically, we now have two many ships and not enough demand.  Gee, why do all the shipping companies keep buying more ships if theres no demand?  These analyst change their minds so quick, it wouldn't surprise me if a week later they come out a say "buy all you can in the shipping sector, demand is outpacing supply!"  Anyways, I'm  confused, because since the market is irrational, it can take longer for TBSI to go back up or does someone here believe that TBSI can't stay this low for long?

I don't know for how long TBSI will stay this low, or if it will go lower over the short term or not. Since I'm losing 46% holding this stock (ouch), it's obvious I was wrong about my entry timing.

Now, I continue to be a long term bull on Shipping because I see demand for moving goods from one side of the planet to the other rising strongly for the next 10 years. Communications work at the speed of light, but the transportation of goods (unfortunately) will always be made in the same old ways. In the South America/Europe and South America/Asia cases, it will always have to be made by ship or air plane. And I don't think tons of iron ore, or copper, or corn or any other commodity will be moved through an air plane.

I don't think there's any likelihood that international commerce between South America and Asia will slowdown in the upcoming years. In fact, I believe it will continue to grow strongly. And yet, you have TBSI trading at just 6.5 times 2008 EPS estimates (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI). The valuation is so extreme, that if the current negative perception on global growth changes, TBSI's stock price will double or triple in a short period of time.

And I remain confident that the current negative perception on growth is overblown and yes, the US may have a recession, but that's already priced in by the stock market's valuation.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Another 9% fall. I'm losing 50.6% now.

The whole shipping industry is viewed as "cyclical". This explains why the stocks keep going down in the face of very low valuation metrics. Investors believe the cycle has turned and stocks will go down to where they came from.

Interestingly, this "going down while the p/e is so attractive" happened with housing and banking stocks. As we all know now, these sectors are in deep trouble and the low p/e turned negative in many occasions.

I don't see how the same thing could happen to shipping stocks. Demand for shipping services will just keep growing in my view, because demand is based on the nascent international trade between emerging economies, which is different from demand coming from local US consumers. US consumers were getting into credit and buying new homes because interest rates were very low and that couldn't last long. On the other hand, demand for shipping services, because it comes from growing international trade between developing countries, will keep growing. The US-centric World is giving space to a multi-center World, which is much more healthy.

Shipping stocks can also be viewed as cyclical because, if the price for the shipping services (measured by the Baltic Dry Index (http://shipping.capitallink.com/baltic_exchange/stock_chart.html?ticker=BDI&date_r=1yr&c=1&s=BDI)) goes up, shipping companies will buy more ships and eventually overcapacity will bring prices back down to the previous levels.

This last situation is probably what is happening in the real world. But, the way I see it, more demand and more ships, even at the same price, mean higher revenues and profits. And if there will be higher revenues and profits it doesn't make sense to value these companies at 5-6 times earnings.

The next time I'm confronted with a new industry I'll make sure I understand if it is cyclical or not, because cyclical stocks are valued in a different way.

As for the current moment and TBSI, I'm already losing 50% plus and I'm a long term bull in the shipping industry (I believe that despite the up and down cycles, the industry will grow a lot over the years), even more so in TBSI in particular, because it operates in the right markets and management doesn't dilute shareholders value.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Hmm. It's interesting that QMAR never corrected as much as many of the others and then today rallied hard on it's biggest (6.5X) volume ever, (I think) before pulling back with the market and closing with a doji. Still ended up 8%.

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 08, 2008, 04:58:46 PM
Hmm. It's interesting that QMAR never corrected as much as many of the others and then today rallied hard on it's biggest (6.5X) volume ever, (I think) before pulling back with the market and closing with a doji. Still ended up 8%.

Indeed BigSully1, QMAR has been showing relative strength within the dry bulk shipping industry, down "just" 3.1% today. A few quick facts about it: IPO in mid 2005, $1.3 B market cap, 2008 EPS estimate of $2.48 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=QMAR), so forward earnings multiple is 9.5:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43029;image)

I want to write a few comments on TBSI because it was today's biggest loser of the Main Portfolio (also the biggest loser since my entry, with a 52% loss).

The stock is down just to its mid-August lows, but my entry timing was lousy. Perhaps I should have been more careful with timing, or else I should have cut my losses quickly, but the reality is a 52% loss and that's what I have to face.

TBSI was up 8 fold at one point in 2007, when it reached a high of $71, so maybe the 67% top to bottom drawdown shouldn't be all that unexpected, I guess I was just carried away by the attractiveness of the fundamental metrics.

Anyway, what do we have now?

Throughout this whole up and down process, TBSI didn't issue any new share (contrary to what many shipping companies did). The share count is 27.75 million, so the market cap is $712 M.

TBSI had 3th quarter EPS of $0.96. So, if everything stays basically the same going forward, this company will earn $3.84 per share per year (actually analysts estimates for 2008 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=tbsi) are higher, at $4.51), so TBSI's earnings yield is 15%. The p/e multiple is 6.7.

Here are just a few remarks taken out of the latest earnings press release:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43030;image)

The areas of the World in which this company operates and their liaisons will keep growing strongly in my view. 

Fundamentally I don't see anything wrong with TBSI, in fact, I believe the stock continues to be very attractive as a long term investment.

TBSI is still up 200% over the past 52 weeks, reflecting the marked improvement in fundamentals. I guess I shouldn't read too much into the current technical weakness or the 67% drop from the top, because probably we're just going through a "reverse to the mean" process.

As for the short term technicals, the stock held the $25 support on close, despite its current relative weakness (we've already seen how that changes). We'll see what the next few days bring ... I'll keep holding TBSI.

I joined in here, the market looks ready to do some rallying, and TBSI should be at a technical support level here, so hopefully its hit bottom!  I had told myself I didnt want to buy anything just yet, but TBSI looked too compelling here.

Maybe tbsi is morphing from a submarine back into a surface vessel. We can only hope.

4th quarter earnings are about to take place, I believe DRYS reports in mid-February and TBSI reports in March.  You would think that large funds would start to buy now before the earnings are released.  I believe they will since they know the projected EPS and the fact that the shipping companies are soooooo cheap right now.  (Please, don't get any cheaper! ::)) 

On a side note, what really sucks is a POS stock like RIGL , a company without any revenues keeps going up and the good solid companies such as TBSI are being beat to death.

Anyways, I'm holding!

Keep up the good work David!

'Reverse to the mean'?  David can you clear please.

Here's a link dated Jan. 11, EXM buys QMAR for $27 per share.

http://www.marine-marketing.gr/newsclip.php?file=200802.txt#0


scroll down a few paragraphs to find the news.

I wonder if this will start a consoldation of the shipping companies?

Quote from: stocky on January 12, 2008, 02:07:13 PM
'Reverse to the mean'?  David can you clear please.

'Revert to Mean' would be the correct 'English' that David is referring to. A pullback in price (or reversion) to a trading area or range which you could classify as the stock's mean trading range.

That 'mean trading range' depends on your view or trading timeframe, short, medium, long. As David is looking long term then he would be referring to a reversion back to the long term trading mean.

As a point of interest on ef the approaches I have is  a leveraged short term trading system which works on short term mean reversion. It works best in volatile trading periods where stocks that have been performing well pullback over a set number of days (away from a short term mean) upon which you buy with the intention of selling when price reverts back to that same short term mean. There is an old example of that type of system in the trading systems thread.

Quote from: tokyopua on January 10, 2008, 01:01:51 PM
I joined in here, the market looks ready to do some rallying, and TBSI should be at a technical support level here, so hopefully its hit bottom!  I had told myself I didnt want to buy anything just yet, but TBSI looked too compelling here.

You have an uncanny sense of timing Tokyopua, so I hope you're also right on TBSI :)

QuoteOn a side note, what really sucks is a POS stock like RIGL , a company without any revenues keeps going up and the good solid companies such as TBSI are being beat to death.

Yes mbaugh, the market spends most of the time telling us that the right is wrong and the wrong is right.

QuoteAnyways, I'm holding!

In some other thread you wrote that you trade for a living. I wonder if investing for the long term is the right strategy for yourself mbaugh. If you make 30% a year you'll be a very rich man by the time you retire, but that won't pay your daily bread now.

Perhaps someday we'll chat again on these issues, good luck :)

Quote from: stocky on January 12, 2008, 02:07:13 PM
'Reverse to the mean'?  David can you clear please.

Fortunately AussieTrader already explained, I spent the weekend wondering if you used a similar expression in America. In other words, what I meant to say was that TBSI was just back to its long term ascending trend.

Quote from: mbaugh on January 14, 2008, 12:04:06 AM
Here's a link dated Jan. 11, EXM buys QMAR for $27 per share.

http://www.marine-marketing.gr/newsclip.php?file=200802.txt#0

scroll down a few paragraphs to find the news.

I wonder if this will start a consolidation of the shipping companies?

Ahhh, this explains why QMAR had relative strength versus the rest of the shipping industry. Mystery solved.

Consolidation in the industry would be very welcome.

I believe that in the current environment the shipping industry is a growth industry, not cyclical, and therefore the extremely low valuations mean " deep discount" instead of meaning "trouble ahead". I have this belief because I see the emergence of economic powerhouses now participating in World trade like never before and communications between countries rising faster than anyone can build ships.

I'll continue holding TBSI.

Oops, 'Revert to the mean' is the correct one, I was just thinking of 'Reverse Sweep' in Cricket at that time :) . I really follow British English but yes here in US they have twisted so many terms that I am now making few of my own. Thanks Aussie for the explanation.

Here's a good article that support's David theory on the shipping sector.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60101-drybulk-fundamentals-remain-healthy

have you listened to the webcast DAvid?

Analyst Panel Discussion on the Dry Bulk Sector
Tuesday , January 15, 2008 09:00ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200707/352896_CapitalLink.jpg

NEW YORK, NY -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 01/15/08 -- Shipping Analysts from

--  Bear Stearns (Scott Burk),
--  Jefferies & Company (Douglas Mavrinac),
--  JPMorgan Securities (Jonathan Chappell) and
--  Lazard Capital Markets (Urs Dur)
   

will participate in a Virtual Analyst Panel Discussion on the dry bulk shipping sector today, on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 2:00 pm.

The Analyst Forum is organized by Capital Link, a New York based Investor Relations and Financial Communications firm focusing on shipping.

LIVE AUDIO WEBCAST

Access to the Analyst Forum is only through a live audio webcast accessible directly at www.CapitalLinkWebcasts.com, where it will remain archived afterwards. There is no telephone access. Please access the webcast by going directly to the link www.CapitalLinkWebcasts.com.

Here's a brief overview:

QuoteDrybulk Shipping Stocks Fall, but Analysts Assure Fundamentals Remain Strong

NEW YORK (AP) -- Drybulk shipping stocks lost significant ground in trading Tuesday as investors pulled back on what some analysts said were unfounded fears about the market's future.

Speaking at Tuesday's Dry Bulk Virtual Analyst Forum, organized by investor relations firm Capital Link, some analysts suggested that while drybulk rates have slowed on uncertainty surrounding Chinese iron ore negotiations and low activity, the sector will remain strong through 2008.

Jefferies analyst Douglas Mavrinac said the market's fundamentals have grown stronger since November, despite dwindling charter rates and skittish investors.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Urs Dur believes the market will keep growing as global demand for commodities -- including iron ore, coal and grain -- continues to soar.

"The world will keep turning, and trade will keep going on," he said. "This is such a hot sector -- an awful lot of investors are just getting used to how these stocks work. I see them coming back. (The market) seems quite spring loaded."

Thanks for your posts.

With a 60% loss in TBSI there's no more way to hide it, I was wrong on my assessment of fundamentals or timing was just too bad to think that it was just a timing mistake.

But what puzzles me is why was I wrong. You see, I wouldn't have a problem in taking the loss, even though it's huge, if I learned something from the mistake. But at this point I'm still ignorant and still don't know what I did wrong.

If I took the loss now I would go away without a lesson. And if the price is this high I want at least a lesson for it.

And forget saying "how about the lesson of using stop-losses, or how about thrusting the market and the chart for your decisions?". Forget this because I'm beyond this point now.

I limit my risk with diversification, not stop losses. I'm absolutely confident that some of my holdings will be great long term investments, delivering several bags of profits with just one bag in one stock compensating for a complete loss in my TBSI investment if that were to occur.

I demand that I know what it was that I made wrong so that I won't repeat the mistake again in the future. This procedure is part of my learning and growth process as an investor.

Quote from: mbaugh on January 14, 2008, 02:41:44 PM
Here's a good article that support's David theory on the shipping sector.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60101-drybulk-fundamentals-remain-healthy

This is indeed a very informative article mbaugh. It helps me understand what is going on with the DryBulk sector, but it is still bullish, pointing reasons for the market being wrong, not right.

I have to think and study some more on this pick and no better way to let the potential loss expand some more. The more money it takes away from me the more I'll need to learn from this mistake.

This is so contrary to my previous beliefs that it almost hurts, but no change or mental growth is made without pain.

I'll hold TBSI.

I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

David,
What are your thoughts regarding this article?
TradingMarkets.com
Four Shipping Stocks for Investors to Avoid
Wednesday January 16, 10:22 am ET
By TradingMarkets Research


Many observers have come to believe that shipping stocks are uniquely positioned to help investors determine whether or not the global economy is strong or weak. So what does it mean if four shipping stocks have made our list of stocks that investors would do better to do without?
ADVERTISEMENT


Whether or not the markets eventually lead us into what I've dubbed the World's Most Anticipated Recession, stocks with lower PowerRatings are stocks that investors should avoid. Not only do low PowerRatings stocks, based on our research, tend to underperform compared to the average stock. But stocks with the lowest PowerRating actually produced negative returns on average one year later.

Let's look a little closer at the situation for investors owning low PowerRatings stocks. The average stock, based on our research looking at thousands and thousands of simulated trades since 1995, has been higher one year later as much as 68% of the time. By "average stock" I'm referring to stocks with PowerRatings from 4 to 7.

Stocks with PowerRatings of 2, by comparison, have been higher one year later approximately 41.5% of the time -- well below a 50/50 chance. Stocks with the lowest PowerRating of 1 are even less reliable when it comes to being higher after one year. Our research reveals that 1-rated stocks have been higher one year later less than 35% of the time.

In addition to the relative unreliability of low PowerRatings stocks, those stocks' capacity to underperform is pronounced. While the average stock has been higher, on average, between 12 and 13% after one year, stocks with PowerRatings of 2 have averaged a gain of less than 8% after a year's time. 1-rated stocks, believe it or not, have actually averaged a negative 5.08% after one year.

Now that you know why you want to avoid low PowerRatings stocks, here are a few from the shipping business that are clearly names investors should steer clear of. Ironically, as a group, the Shipping industry remains highly rated with a PowerRating of 8. But when it comes to a showdown between industry groups and stocks, investors are ultimately paid on the performance of stocks. So, until further notice, we defer to the relatively low PowerRatings of the some of the individual (and best known) stocks in shipping.

First up is TBS International (NasdaqGS:TBSI - News). This stock has a PowerRating of 1, making it a stock to run-not-walk away from for the vast majority of investors. TBS International has a P/E of 7.60 and is trading at the lower end of its 52-week price range from a high of $71.15 to a low of $8.10. The company provides both integrated logistics and ocean transportation services including liner, parcel, bulk and vessel chartering.



Another 1-rated stock, Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX - News) trades at approximately 11 times earnings and is in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $45.15 to $15.71. Diana Shipping, Inc. is an Athens, Greece-based shipping company that specializes in ocean transport of dry bulk cargoes.

One of the signature stocks in the shipping industry is Dryships (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News). In addition to having a PowerRating of 2, Dryships is trading in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $131.34 to $16.85 and has a P/E of 6.10.

Dryships is a Greek shipping company that owns and operates carriers for the transport of drybulk commodities ranging from coal and iron ore to grains and fertilizers. Headquartered in Greece, the company is widely expected to blow away its 2007 earnings in 2008.



Our last shipping stock to avoid is Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM - News), with a PowerRating of 2. Excel Maritime Carriers owns and operates dry bulk carriers, providing seaborne transport of cargoes such as iron ore and grains. The company is based out of Athens, Greece.

Excel Maritime Carriers has a P/E of 9.20 and, like the other shipping stocks in this article, is trading closer to its 52-week low of $14.57 than it is to its 52-week high of $81.99.

David Penn is Senior Editor at TradingMarkets.com

It is part of the bottoming process,imo. Throw in some analyst downgrades and we're there. So no one wants them, they're forgotten and lo and behold,they're on the rise. Look no further than cimt for a stock that got really beat up and thrown out. David's right,time and fundamentals are the keys.

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 12:10:43 PM
I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

I guess it pretty much put in a doji today. I think it would have been a nice hammer had not the market turned for the worse again this afternoon. I'm not looking for very much on it and if the trade begins to turn against me, I won't hesitate to dump it, period. I'm not going to argue against what the market has been saying.  Good luck guys.

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 06:22:39 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on January 16, 2008, 12:10:43 PM
I have a hunch that TBSI put in a ST bottom. Volume high. I bought some this morn just to play the bounce.

I guess it pretty much put in a doji today. I think it would have been a nice hammer had not the market turned for the worse again this afternoon. I'm not looking for very much on it and if the trade begins to turn against me, I won't hesitate to dump it, period. I'm not going to argue against what the market has been saying.  Good luck guys.

I will also take my lumps on this if it breaks much below $20 convincingly, as $20ish looks like it should also be a support.

It's possible to see $24 before any big drop ..
If it can break $24 level it could be a nice run to the upside again.
The market is going down like a rock and many strong stocks broke major uptrends  ???
A very bad start for 2008 , but who knows it could be a fuel for a nice run soon.

Hope so

EXM has very similar chart to TBSI, but did a little better today

Shipping index plunges to six-month low; global cooling on cusp?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MarketWatch
6:05 p.m. 01/20/2008  By Laura Mandaro 


Falling global demand for bulk commodities could indicate a global cooling
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Worries that the global economy is following the U.S. into a slowdown have increased after an early warning indicator -- an index that tracks global shipping rates for bulk commodities -- plunged to a six-month low.

The Baltic Dry Index fell to a reading of 6,462 Friday, down nearly 30% since the start of the year and 42% from an all-time high reached Nov. 13, according to the Baltic Exchange in London.

The gauge, which tracks freight rates on the mammoth vessels that carry tons of soybeans, corn, coal and metals across the globe, is used by economists to get an early read on global trade and growth trends. When demand for those basic materials shrinks, freight rates drop and the index tumbles. The trend provides an early snapshot of trade volumes before governments compute reports.

"It's fallen quite significantly," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J. "It points to a slowing in the global economy."

Some analysts suggest extraordinary factors may be contributing to the severity of the decline. They include a drop in iron-ore cargo volumes from Brazil, perhaps influenced by merger talks between BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and rival producer Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) ; weather conditions in Australia interfering with shipments; and suspected efforts by Chinese buyers to reduce imports to get better raw materials prices in upcoming contract talks, analysts say.

Though the decline is "probably consistent with some slowing in global growth," wrote Bank of America analyst Robert Sinche, "the dire economic scenario that some are suggesting is signaled by the BDI correction overstates the case."

As Wall Street waits for more trade data to confirm or refute the Baltic Dry Index's signals, analysts have plenty of evidence that U.S. shipping activity already has dropped off.

U.S. truck tonnage and rail volumes fell last year, hitting profits at trucking companies Ryder System, Inc. (R) and YRC Worldwide Inc. (YRCW), as well as railcar suppliers American Railcar Industries Inc. (ARII) and FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) . Freight rail operator Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) said the "ongoing economic uncertainty" made it difficult to forecast volumes when it cut its fourth-quarter profit estimates last month on bad weather and high fuel prices.

Fearing the worse from a U.S. downturn, investors unloaded shares of industrial bellwethers FedEx Corp. (FDX), down 24% in the last year, and UPS (UPS), off 10%, as well as the shares of most major trucking firms.

U.S. rail freight volume slipped 2.5% in 2007 on diminished demand for housing and automotive materials such as lumber, crushed stone and gravel, and steel, says the Association of American Railroads.

As of Jan. 12, U.S. rail volumes had inched up 0.2%, estimates Deutsche Bank.

"Freight has been in a recession since late 2006," said Bear Stearns analyst Edward Wolfe in a report Friday. Demand has yet to improve. Still, he predicted the sector, which often leads the bottom of the economy by six to eight quarters, would rebound this year.

"Most transport stocks will outperform the broader market this year," he said.

Economic outlook
The recent, sharp decline in the Baltic Dry Index comes after a steep run-up in the past two years. These gains corresponded with continued strong demand from fast-growing economies like China and India for the basic materials used to build infrastructure and manufacture goods for exports. Iron-ore prices reached an all-time high last year, fueling double-digit profit increases at miners like Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) . Higher metals prices stoked economic growth in resource-rich countries such as Peru, Brazil and Australia.

At the Baltic Dry Index's peak, leases on 170,000 deadweight-ton Capesize vessels were fetching more than $200,000 a day.

The index, which is compiled by the Baltic Exchange, does not include liquid commodities like oil or manufactured goods like TV sets. About half of the major shipping routes whose rates are tracked in the index have a component in China, said a spokesman for the Exchange, set up 264 years ago as a marketplace for merchants and ship owners.

The plunge in the index comes as the chance of a recession has risen in the U.S., say economists. They point to a fall in consumer spending late last year, a slowdown in hiring and languishing manufacturing activity.

Export activity has been a bright spot for the U.S. economy thanks to a weaker dollar.

The volume of outgoing containers at the Port of Long Beach, the country's second-busiest port, jumped 22% last year. This increase helped total volume for the year stay stable with the prior year, despite a 0.4% drop in inbound containers.

A wider global slowdown, particularly one that clips demand for U.S. raw materials like wood or metals, could cloud the export outlook.

This week, China and the United Kingdom are scheduled to release reports on gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. BMO Capital Markets expects economic growth in the U.K. slowed to 2.8% growth year-over-year, down from a 3.2% gain for each of the prior three quarters. On Friday, the U.K. Office of National Statistics said retail sales made a surprise drop in December.

"The global economy is still expanding at a pretty good rate," said BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes in Toronto. Still, he said, cooling in Europe and the U.K., combined with a U.S. slowdown, points to more sluggish growth worldwide this year. Even China, which his firm expects will register at least a 11% increase in gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, may slow as the country tries to rein in inflation.

This year, "global growth looks like it will definitely be lower," he said.

QuoteDavid,
What are your thoughts regarding this article?

I have no opinion on that article jrtabor, since the author doesn't disclose how the "PowerRatings" are calculated. From the clues he gives probably it has something to do with "cheap and yet going down" is supposed to be negative, but I'm not sure, so I can't form an opinion.

People continue to see the last year's increase in Shipping services demand as cyclical while I see it as structural. I believe the Dry Bulk Index will never go back to the levels it was in 2004 and 2005:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43221;image)

I have this believe because the BRIC countries are, in my opinion, in a structural development phase which is far from over, even though there will be fluctuations in growth along the way.

With this macroeconomic background TBSI looks incredibly cheap, because it will probably continue to grow earnings over the long term and yet it trades at 6-7 times earnings.

We'll see what the future brings, I'll keep holding TBSI.

Perhaps we'll have a problem with TBSI and $25, but I want to own at least one Shipping services company and TBSI is the most attractive in my opinion.

It looks like earnings estimate for 2008 was raised to 5.02


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI

Quote from: mbaugh on January 25, 2008, 10:00:00 AM
It looks like earnings estimate for 2008 was raised to 5.02

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TBSI

Thanks for the info mbaugh :)

I've listened to that analysts forum on capital ship link (http://www.capitallinkwebcasts.com/2008/drybulk_janurary/webcast.html?player=win&PHPSESSID=bc059b8563a9a74f0bccec02a617bb70) and it was quite interesting. I believe it is clear that the shipping industry fundamentals remain solid and stocks are way undervalued at this point. If my general market outlook proves correct a stock like TBSI should outperform the market in a massive way ... it may even close 2008 above $100.

Certainly this isn't the right time to sell TBSI. I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.

Bought some TBSI today @ $25.44

Last time earnings were Nov 9th so I guess in a few weeks earnings will be out! What are your expectations David?



TBS International Limited Takes Delivery of a Handysize Bulk Carrier Expanding Its Operational Fleet to 37 Vessels
Tuesday January 29, 4:05 pm ET

HAMILTON, BERMUDA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 29, 2008 -- TBS International Limited (NasdaqGS:TBSI - News) announced that it has taken delivery of the M.V. Zuni Princess, formally the M.V. Ypermachos, a 1984 built, 28,166 dwt handysize bulk carrier. TBS had agreed to acquire this vessel charter free for $26.0 million in October 2007.


With the delivery of the M.V. Zuni Princess, TBS' current fleet consists of 37 multipurpose tweendecker, handymax and handysize vessels. TBS expects to take delivery of two additional handysize bulk carriers (the MVs Oneida Princess and Mohave Maiden) and three multipurpose tweendeckers (the MVs Hopi Princess, Ottawa Princess and Caribe Maiden) by end of the first quarter of 2008. Once these deliveries are concluded, TBS' fleet will be comprised of 42 vessels with an aggregate of 1,224,523 dwt, consisting of 23 tweendeckers and 19 handymax / handysize bulk carriers.

Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "We are pleased to add the M.V. Zuni Princess to our operational fleet, our first delivery of this year. With this delivery and consistent with our strategy, we have strengthened our position to take advantage of the growing demand in the industry."

Of all the stocks on the main, TBSI is my favorite.   They took possesion of another ship today since demand is growing  http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080129/0354475.html                             

4th quarter and year end earnings will probably be released around the first week of March.  Last year it was March 8.

Found an interesting post on the yahoo board



First of all the best way to get info on this stock is to go to www.capitallink.com Yes some of the weakness is contributed to a response from the US slowdown but most recently a lot has to do with the negotiations involving the mining companies and China in regard to iron ore.Iron ore specifically makes up 50% of dry bulk.TBSI's stock price is pretty much dependent on Iron Ore because its major trade routes are from Brazil to China & India, and to a lesser extent Austalia to China.Companies like RIO, RTP, BHP, BBL, and SID ship most of this stuff and use TBSI, and these comanies located in Brazil & Australia
control the world iron ore. Recently a major port in Brazil went down for repairs, and the mining companies are witholding shipmentsto China as a means to get better steel prices in the upcoming contracts. This has freed up ships and the timing of it has coincided with this whole financial mess here in the US which has created this double whammy on the BDI but contracts are longer term in nature, so even though the BDI spot pricing has dropped quite a bit, the long term rates still support the dry bulk shipping fundamentals. Furthermore, eventually these ships will not be held back (and ports will be repaired) which will in turn support the spot pricing which will help TBSI dramatically.Demand should continue to exceed supply for 08 and 09 until 10 when there are a massive number of new ship builds scheduled. What is ironic is that this whole financial mess may actually help this sector.Supply is supposed to exceed demand in 2010. Financing in a tight credit market will probably prevent certain ships from being built. Moreover, the cost of steel may make new ship investments unattractive. Furhtermore, as Chinese labor continues to be tighter, the more expensive it will be to repair old ships and do ship convesions. Lastly to think that China will get these ships done on time (the labor is not as skilled and there are scores of other projects to compete with) is probably wishful thinking. If demand exceeds supply in 2010, these stocks are going to be bid higher, because 3 years of excessive cash flow relative to 2 makes a major differece when TBSI is trading at 4-6 times earnings. All of this is a mute point however if China slows to 5 or 6% GDP.80% of the world's growth this year comes from China and India.If they dont grow at the expected 10/11% they are slated to then all bets are off.Economies do not run in straight lines and although I think China is going to be a long term growth story, the chances are getting increasingly higher that in the next few years there will be a major breather. Whenbuild out slows, iron ore slows, dry bulk shipping rates plummet, and all of that leveraging that TBSI is doing will hurt them immensely and much more than the other
dividend paying ship names (this is why it is down so much relative to SSW or NAT for instance). To think that China will never create a short term bubble at the very least is to think that human nature will not reveal itself once again. The Chinese market was trading at 35 times earnings not too long ago. In 2000 the S&P 500 was trading at he same exact level (and then it got cut in half to 763). Growth generally leads to excess and institutions extend themselves supporting models that end up failing. China will at some point do the same if it is not happening already. Personally I am not so worried about the US recession spilling over to the World, but I am concerned about China popping. So TBSI will continue to be volatile, especially since options just started trading on it this past month. I started buying at 9 (total position got to about 10 million), and cut my position by 60% at 67. I started increasing again at 19/20 but I am wary of it.....if China kicks butt for a couple years, this stock is very very very cheap. Thats the skinny my friends.

I believe this is good news for all the shipping stocks.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080130/19/1l5ct.html

BDI is up today as well.

Let's hope it can break that trendline, the volume is certainly there ...


(http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/1167/tbsigc4.jpg)

'Run Forrest Run' !  ;D >:D

Thanks for the tip, David.  Applaud.  I finally bought today at $30.40, after watching since you first bought.  I was just waiting for the techinical analysis to be as good as the fundamentals.  The downtrend has officially broken, it seems.

Sector Snap: Drybulk Climbs Higher
Wednesday January 30, 1:28 pm ET
Drybulk Shippers Float Higher As Baltic Rebounds, Charter Rates Rise, Acquisition Cheered

NEW YORK (AP) -- Drybulk shipping surged for a second day Wednesday, as a key shipping index rebounded and investors regained optimism over rising charter rates and the possibility of further industry consolidation.

The Baltic Dry Index, which is managed by the Baltic Exchange in London, leaped 285 points Wednesday to 5,900 -- a day after it retreated to its lowest point in seven months. The index, which measures drybulk shipping rates on 40 routes across the world, is still well off an all-time high of 11,039 set in mid-November.

Dahlman Rose analyst Omar Notka said while rates for Capesize ships remained flat yesterday, charter rates were heading significantly higher Wednesday morning. Capesize vessels are so named because they are too big to fit through the Panama or Suez Canals and must instead sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn to travel between oceans.

"Reports of a five-year Capesize time charter -- the first long-term contract in the Capesize market in some time -- has brought more optimism into the market," Notka added.

And the announcement Tuesday that Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. plans to buy Quintana Maritime Ltd. in a $2.45 billion cash-and-stock deal has also buoyed investors' hopes that a market rebound is on the horizon, the analyst said.

However, Notka said concerns are still looming over wide-ranging coal production delays in Australia and South Africa, which are slowing shipping activity.

Among drybulk stocks in midday trading, DryShips Inc. surged $5.06, or 8.1 percent, to $67.50, and Quintana Maritime Ltd. rose $1.04, or 4.7 percent, to $23.06.

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. gained $1.38, or 5.9 percent, to $24.63, while Diana Shipping Inc. added $1.04, or 3.9 percent, to $27.70.

Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. rose 50 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $11.32, while Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. gained $1.92, or 6 percent, to $33.70.

Euroseas Ltd., gained 33 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $11.86. The company said earlier Wednesday it locked in one-year charter extensions for two of its container ships.

Danaos Corp. bucked the trend, slipping 10 cents to $27.40.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/drybulk_shippers_sector_snap.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/drybulk_shippers_sector_snap.html?.v=1)

Dry bulk CEOs bet on strong year despite recession fears
Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:36am EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKBNG23831620080131?rpc=44&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 (http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKBNG23831620080131?rpc=44&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0)

By Sakthi Prasad

BANGALORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Demand for dry bulk shipments will remain strong this year despite a recent crash in freight rates, growing fears of a U.S. recession, a weak dollar and high oil prices, chief executives of four major dry bulk carriers said at an industry forum on Wednesday.

Demand from China and other emerging economies will offset falling freight rates, the CEOs of DryShips Inc (DRYS.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Star Bulk Carriers Corp SBLK.O, TBS International (TBSI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Quintana Maritime Ltd (QMAR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said at the Dry Bulk CEO Virtual Forum.

The Baltic Exchange's chief sea freight index for dry commodities .BADI, which monitors major trade routes for coal, iron ore, cement and soft commodities such as grain and sugar, lost about 47 percent, since hitting a life high of 11,039 in November last year.

George Economou of DryShips said the profitability would not be affected due to recent fall in freight rates.

"On average, a capesize vessel would be getting $90,000 a day and the expense is about $6,000 a day and there is a huge margin" he added.

Dry bulk freight rates had touched record highs last year, reaching $200,000 levels for capesize vessels, on strong demand from China and other emerging economies and also due to tight supply of vessels.

Quintana's Chief Executive Stamatis Molaris said Baltic Dry Freight Index is an indicator of spot rates only and does not reveal the future freight rate movements.

"It has nothing to do with the real and underlying fundamentals of our business in the long term and volatilities is also part of dry bulk business in the long term," he said.

Molaris also emphasized there is no change in the fundamentals and investors should not use the index to draw long-term conclusions but could use it as a short term trading instrument.

"The fundamentals are still good for 2008, 2009 and beyond and you will see new routes developing," Economou of DryShips said.

"Even if the U.S. economy slows down significantly we are not likely to see much effects in our business," Quintana's Molaris said at the conference organized by New York-based investor relations and financial communications firm Capital Link and Nasdaq International.

Besides recessionary fears, dry bulk freight rates have been hit this year by a lack of fresh cargo supply at two key global export centers and China's ongoing price negotiations for iron ore.

"The demand has been surprising us favourably in the past and we will see it again, said Chief Executive Akis Tsirigakis of Star Bulk.

OIL, DOLLAR AND SUB-PRIME

The belief that rising oil prices can eat into a shipper's margins was dispelled by Tsirigakis, who clarified that oil is not part of a shipper's cost structure.

"The oil costs are passed on to the charterers and is not part of our cost structure and hence it do not affect us," he said.

Joseph Royce of TBS International said he is continuing to see increasing exports, especially of coal and agricultural products, from the U.S., as they become cheaper due to a weaker dollar.

Royce also added that infrastructure development, which in turn propels demand for dry bulk commodities like iron ore and coal, would continue as project business is booming throughout the world.

Economou of DryShips said the sub-prime mortage-led credit crunch has not affected the companies' operations.

"The only way we are suffering from credit crunch is in the price of the stocks, which has been unnecessarily hurt.

"The fundamentals have not changed and deals are going to be there and you saw one announced yesterday," he said, refering to Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $2.45 billion buyout of Quintana Maritime.

Quintana's Molaris said his company's sale to Excel Maritime is a huge confidence booster to the shipping market and that right projects will always be financed.

VESSEL SUPPLY

Dry bulk carriers have ordered more ships to meet the growing demand to ship dry bulk commodities to China, India and other emerging economies, which is expected to hit the seas in the next two to three years.

Molaris said the rise in the orderbook to build new ships was spurred by the booming demand and admitted he was sceptical about the rising supply of ships but added that shipyards are constrained with orders.

"We are currently experiencing delays in delivering ships on time from well established shipyards," he said. (Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Jarshad Kakkrakandy)

Thanks for posting these articles Se7en :)

I didn't thought it was possible for stock prices and fundamentals to diverge so much like it happened with the Shipping sector (at least not to the downside), but I guess I just wasn't experienced enough.

Now I know that it is possible for a multiple contraction to bring a stock down to 1/3 or less of its previous value and that a earnings multiple of 3 to 5 is possible even as fundamentals keep improving as is clearly the case with the Shipping industry.

I guess this is the way Bull and Bear Markets exist, through multiple expansions and contractions.

Anyway, I see the current jump in TBSI and other shipping stocks as an early bullish signal for this market, even though the path still isn't clear.

We'll see what happens next but anyway it goes, TBSI depends mostly on commerce between Latin America and Asia and I believe that will keep growing. Whenever a multiple expansion occurs TBSI will be a $100 plus stock and I'll continue holding it for the long term.

TBSI breaking through the 50MA and 200 EMA ...  ;D

Quote from: Se7en on January 31, 2008, 03:19:40 PM
TBSI breaking through the 50MA and 200 EMA ...  ;D

Still have to cross above the 200 SMA, but it appears that the trend has finally turned.

TBSI is still trading at just 6.6 times 2008 EPS estimates and the earnings are not only reliable, they're very likely to grow even more in the upcoming years. What you have here is a very cheap company, which never diluted shareholders value and growing EPS by 62% from 2007 to 2008, according to estimates:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43376;image)

I see $100 a share in TBSI in 9-12 months time and I'll continue holding it for the long term.

IBD daily stock analysis - TBSI, if anyone interested

http://www.investors.com/MediaCenter/?MediaID=904

man!
sounds like the
"buy on fundamentals and technicals, sell on technicals" strategy could have saved us lots of money and headaches.  :'(

thanks for the post.

TBS International Limited Announces Date for the Release of the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results, Conference Call and Webcast
HAMILTON, BERMUDA, February 11 / MARKET WIRE/ --
TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced today that after the
market closes in New York on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 it will release its
results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2007.

The next day, Thursday, March 13, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. EDT, the company's
management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

Conference call details:
Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes before the scheduled time
using the following numbers: 1-888-713-4209 (from the US) or 1-617-213-4863
(International Dial In). Participant Passcode: 12145074. The conference call
will also be webcast live on the company's website: www.tbsship.com by clicking
on the webcast link. Participants may pre-register for the call at
https://www.theconferencingservice.com/prereg/key.process?key=PEXAGDVEL.
Pre-registrants will be issued a PIN number to use when dialing into the live
call which will provide quick access to the conference by bypassing the
operator upon connection.

Replay:
A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available from 12:00 p.m.
EDT on Thursday, March 13, 2008 until Thursday, March 20, 2008 by dialing
1-888-286-8010 (from the US) or 1-617-801-6888 (International Dial In). Access
Code: 52508153. A replay of the webcast will be available soon after the
completion of the call.

Webcast:
There will also be a live and then archived slides and audio webcast of the
conference call on the company's website www.tbsship.com, which can be accessed
by clicking on the webcast link. As soon as practicable, the webcast and the
corresponding slides will be archived and will also be accessible on our
website.

hope this helps the dry bulk shipping sector.

http://hugin.info/135378/R/1190656/239756.pdf

All these dry bulk stocks rolling over in unison. Everyone taking profits at once?

Another great earnings report from a shipping company.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/earns_oceanfreight.html?.v=1

GNK reports after the bell on Wed.
DSX reports after the bell on Thurs.
DRYS reports after the bell on Thurs.

Closed near the high. Nice.

TBSI closed above the 200 days SMA yesterday. Today after the close, DRYS, which is the Dry Bulk Shipping sector largest company (at least traded on American exchanges), will release its 4th quarter results. Probably the short term direction of this sector will be affected by this news.

There are several problems to DRYS (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/12/18/dryships-goes-off-the-deep-end.aspx), this is why it trades at such low valuation of 4.5 times 2008 EPS estimates, which are really high at $18.18 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=DRYS) :o

I believe TBSI is a lot more transparent than DRYS and shouldn't be trading at just 7.2 times 2008 EPS estimates (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=tbsi).

Commerce within the company's routes (http://www.tbsship.com/cargo.htm) can only keep growing in my opinion.

I'll continue holding TBSI for the long term.

After Hours: 39.00  1.85 (4.98%) as of 6:31PM ET on 02/14/08   Thanks to DRYS earnings. Very cool.

Hi David,

honestly I wouldn't rely too much on what Fool.com says...most of the times, they are completely wrong in their analysis and they manipulate a lot their returns on newsletter so to show they beat the market...but they don't.

I think DRYS (I own some shares) it's a great company and yesterday earnings prove it.
It has diversified its business into the ocean rig, because the CEO has a deep knowledge of this industry.
That acquisition is not a diwoersification (I ask pardon to Lynch if I permit to use his words), but it is accreative to the bottom line.
Energy is a crucial industry and will continue to be in the coming decades, where oil will continue to be the master in the energy market.

Just my opinion of course, time will tell if DRYS will be able to return to thehighest level it reached months ago.

Cheers,

A.

Quote from: soxguy on February 14, 2008, 06:50:49 PM
After Hours: 39.00  1.85 (4.98%) as of 6:31PM ET on 02/14/08   Thanks to DRYS earnings. Very cool.

Yep, $38.5 now in the pre-market, as the general market isn't helping.

QuoteHi David,

honestly I wouldn't rely too much on what Fool.com says...most of the times, they are completely wrong in their analysis and they manipulate a lot their returns on newsletter so to show they beat the market...but they don't.

Is that so? I thought they were honest. This is a big surprise to me, why do you say that?

QuoteI think DRYS (I own some shares) it's a great company and yesterday earnings prove it.
It has diversified its business into the ocean rig, because the CEO has a deep knowledge of this industry.
That acquisition is not a diwoersification (I ask pardon to Lynch if I permit to use his words), but it is accreative to the bottom line.
Energy is a crucial industry and will continue to be in the coming decades, where oil will continue to be the master in the energy market.

Just my opinion of course, time will tell if DRYS will be able to return to thehighest level it reached months ago.

Cheers,

A.

I tend to agree terainvestment :)

I wrote some comments on DRYS (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=10953.0) on the Watch List.

It looks clear now that the CEO's and analysts of the Dry Bulk shipping industry were right, the industry continues to grow very strongly. Therefore the extremely cheap valuations don't make any sense and they should be corrected. This isn't a business that is about to end (as it would be implied from the current valuations), this is a business that will keep growing for several years to come in my view.

I see all shipping stocks moving up to new all time highs and TBSI should outperform the group, like it has been doing.

I'll keep holding TBSI for the long term.

Is that so? I thought they were honest. This is a big surprise to me, why do you say that?

[Hi david, no they are not honest as they should be. For two reasons:
1) In their newsletters (I tested all) they recommend a long list of stocks to buy, almost touching 50/60 stocks. This is the first problem, because their main target market, people who know little or nothing about investment, could be in real problem in managing a portfolio composed by 50 stocks. Just the transaction costs eat you a large part of the total return, while Fool say that investors  should buy the whole list of rec's to duplicate returns.

2) the second and larger problem, is that their performance calculation are duplicated and calculated twice, or three or four times, depending how many times they recommended a stock. For example, in their newsletter "The Stock Advisor", the stock Quality Systems (QSII) is recommended for a buy twice and in the calculation of their total return they calculate the returns that they have on both rec's! This stock is up, to date, 533% and 453%, so the overall impact on total return of portfolio is devastating...unless you bought twice QSII duplicating the position (but how much money you should have to do this?). The same story is for Dolby (DLB), recommended three times for respective gains of 116%, 163% and 61%.
Conversely, stocks that underperform and go beyond their expectations are, of course, eliminated by their portfolio...

So, I made some very easy calculation on an excel file and put their returns on each rec's. I then eliminated the stocks recommended 2,3 4, 5 times...etc and I took only one rec's for each stock. I then eliminated the two outliers (in statystical analysis, an outlier is a data the fall very outside the frequency distribution). In our case, the outliers are the bigger winner and bigger loser.

The final result on this great The stock Advisor that claim to beat the market by 50% being up 68% while market is up just 16% since 2002 , is a poor.........+20%....all that Fools and caos to beat the market by 4% in 6 years?

LOL

HAMILTON, BERMUDA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 02/15/08 -- TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced that it has taken delivery of the M.V. Hopi Princess, previously the M.V. African Sanderling, a 1984 built, 20,401 dwt multipurpose tweendecker. TBS had agreed to acquire this vessel charter free for $18.3 million in November 2007.

With the delivery of the M.V. Hopi Princess, TBS' current fleet consists of 39 multipurpose tweendecker, handymax and handysize vessels. TBS expects to take delivery of two additional multipurpose tweendeckers (the M.V. Ottawa Princess and M.V. Caribe Maiden) and one handysize bulk carrier (the M.V. Mohave Maiden) by end of the first quarter of 2008. Once these deliveries are concluded, TBS' fleet will be comprised of 42 vessels with an aggregate of 1,225,560 dwt, consisting of 23 tweendeckers and 19 handymax / handysize bulk carriers.

Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "We are pleased to have taken delivery of the M.V. Hopi Princess, which increases our operational flexibility and generates economies of scale."

TBS International Limited Announces the Acquisition of a Handymax Bulk Carrier


HAMILTON, BERMUDA, February 19 / MARKET WIRE/ --
     
  TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced that it has entered into
an agreement to acquire the M.V. Athinoula, to be renamed M.V. Canarsie
Princess, a 1985 built, 42,842 dwt handymax bulk carrier. TBS has agreed to
acquire this vessel charter free for $30.3 million with expected delivery
within the second quarter of 2008.
     
Following this acquisition and the deliveries of the previously announced
vessels, TBS' fleet will be comprised of 43 vessels with an aggregate of
1,268,402 dwt, consisting of 23 tweendeckers and 20 handymax/ handysize bulk
carriers.
     
Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "We
are pleased to announce the acquisition of the M.V. Canarsie Princess, which
further expands our dry bulk fleet enabling us to benefit from the sector's
positive fundamentals. Our growth strategy focuses on bolstering the earning
capacity of the Company and enhancing our flexibility to better service our
customers."
     
About TBS International Limited
     
TBS is an ocean transportation services company that offers worldwide shipping
solutions through liner, parcel and bulk services, and vessel chartering. TBS
has developed its business around key trade routes between Latin America and
China, Japan and South Korea, as well as select ports in North America, Africa,
the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. TBS provides frequent regularly scheduled
voyages in its network, as well as cargo scheduling, loading and discharge for
its customers.
     
Forward-Looking Statements
     
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You are hereby cautioned
that these statements may be affected by certain factors, among others, set
forth below and in TBS's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission,
and consequently, actual operations and results may differ materially from the
results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Among the factors that
could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by
forward-looking statements is the ability of the buyer and seller of the vessel
to satisfy customary conditions to our obligation to purchase the vessel. Other
factors that could affect TBS's operations and results are discussed in TBS's
filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. TBS undertakes no
obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events, or otherwise.
     
Visit our website at www.tbsship.com
     
For more information, please contact:
Ferdinand V. Lepere
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
TBS International Limited
Tel. 914-961-1000
[email protected]
       
Investor Relations / Media:
Nicolas Bornozis
Capital Link, Inc. New York
Tel. 212-661-7566
E-mail: [email protected]

Thanks for posting the news Rmagos :)

• TBS International Limited Announces the Acquisition of a Handymax Bulk Carrier (http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080219/0362830.html)
Marketwire (Tue 9:00am)

Using the same methodology I've used in the past, if 42,842 dwt of ship are worth $30.3 M, 1,268,402 dwt is worth about $900 M.

TBSI's current market is worth $1 B, so it's like everything else besides the ships is worth just $100 M (if we consider today's open, it's more like $0).

I think this is unfair and TBSI's earnings power (and earnings growth) should allow for a much higher valuation.

I think TBSI will be over $100 when 2008 closes and I'll keep holding it.

   An Indicator Bulls Will Love: The Baltic Dry Index

Recession warnings are everywhere. But some economic barometers are singing from a different choir book.


Oil, copper, wheat and other raw-material prices are soaring. Other gauges of global industrial demand also are flashing green: The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping dry commodities such as coal, has surged nearly 25% since the end of January.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, historically an indicator of industrial shipping activity, has gained 2.5% this year, even as the Dow industrials have fallen 7.4%.

Investors may be betting that monetary and fiscal stimulus will spark a recovery in the second half of the year, or that worrywarts are overstating things.

Some investors also are turning for an explanation to the well-worn "decoupling" theory, which holds that foreign economies, particularly emerging markets, are robust enough to shrug off a U.S. recession, keeping global manufacturing and commodity demand healthy.

Still, bears can find reason to dismiss these economic crosscurrents.

Epic snowstorms in China early this year brought some of the country's industrial activity to a halt, denting global demand for commodity shipments and sinking the Baltic Dry Index. As China digs out, shipping demand is rising again. Temporary closures of iron-ore ports in Brazil and power problems in southern Africa contributed to the shipping swoon that is being unwound.

"The Baltic Dry Index doesn't have to be a big fundamental macroeconomic indicator," said Bart Melek, BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist. "Sometimes it's moved by little, nitty-gritty stuff."

Meanwhile, some of these indicators might simply be giving investors head fakes. The Baltic Dry's bounce is dwarfed by its 49% plunge earlier. Commodities have drawn many speculators, and also investors seeking a hedge against inflation. If the economic bears are right, this long-running cycle of commodity price pressure will soon enough ease, as a weaker U.S. economy asserts itself.

--Mark Gongloff

• Comments to [email protected] or mark.gongloff@wsj

Good news for TBSI as all 40 of its vessels are the Handymax size.  March should be an exceptionally good month.

Handymax rates to rocket in March as cargoes build
Jamie Dale - Friday 22 February 2008

ATLANTIC handymax freight rates are likely to "really rocket" for March loading dates as the prompt ships are almost cleared out, writes Jamie Dale.

The Atlantic market saw healthy volumes of ships available for February cargoes in the last two weeks but many are now employed, opening the door to a firmer looking March.

"The prompt ships are looking softer, I think that you will see a clear out of these at lower levels," a London broker told Lloyd's List.

"Then I think you will see March ships looking like they will pick up some bigger levels."

The broker added that availability of cargoes to soak up the vessels will not be a problem.

"There are plenty of cargoes for US Gulf to Japan, plus there is looking likea real build-up of scrap on the US east coast to Turkey for mid-March," the broker said.

"In east coast South America and Brazil there is plenty of iron ore, pig iron and grain, so I think you will see [levels for] the March dates really rocket."

The broker noted that the last "biggie" fixed in east coast South America went for $56,500 per day plus $800,000 ballast bonus for a trip toward the Pacific.

However, the broker added that owners in east coast South America are already claiming to see interest at $70,000 per day plus $1m ballast bonus.

In west Africa rates for a Baltic Exchange tess 52 index type vessel are around the $61,000 per day mark.

"I think you will have to watch thismarket next week, this is when you will really see it go because the February ships in west Africa have almost cleared out with just a few knocking about on the Continent, but once they have gone we will see rates go up," said the London broker.

"Do not expect too much action on the indices this week, but watch next week and March dates. Be prepared!"

In the Pacific Basin this week many owners appear to have got carried away with the rapidly-rising short period rates and "have priced themselves out of the market", according to ICAP Hyde.

"Index type tonnage rating in the mid-low $60,000s has scared off charterers who are quite happy to sit back and watch for the time being unless they have spot backhaul requirements to cover with short period tonnage," added the Londonbrokerage in its daily report.

The report noted that some Far Eastern owners have started to ease their levels slightly after realising that their "over zealous" rates are off the mark in view of the reduced period sentiment.

ICAP Hyde noted that vessels fixed for Pacific round voyages are able to achieve above $50,000 per day, for both shorter nickel ore trips and the longer rounds out of the North Pacific.

The Indian coasts remain firm with a 45,000 dwt vessel open on the west coast reported to be fixing on subjects for a trip to the east in the mid $50,000s.

TBS International Ltd Earnings Conference Call (Q4 2007)
Scheduled to start Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 10:00 am Eastern

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/89978.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/8/89978.html)

Thanks for the valuable information you've been posting in TBSI's thread :)

Despite Friday's sell off, TBSI's trend is now bullish, with higher highs and higher lows. I don't think it will take much longer for us to have the stock around $50 and I expect it to close 2008 around $100 a share, with fundamentals improving throughout the year and expanding valuations.

Unfortunately TBSI is one of the stocks I choose to let go in the current market environment. Not just because I was forced to change my views of the general market trend and outlook (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11018.msg112955#msg112955), but also because I heard something quite puzzling about what's been happening in China lately.

Of course, the freight rates are up sharply from a few years ago because of China's every growing appetite for commodities, like iron ore, for example.

What I heard (or read) was that China has been building the equivalent of Japan's entire infrastructure (I mean, everything build in Japan) every three years. For how long can this go on?

If the US economy enters a recession (which seems to be the most likely scenario) and China suffers somewhat because of that (also due to rising interest rates due to inflation), building in China may very well slow down dramatically. If this happens the freight rates will also go lower and TBSI's profits will shrink to a fraction of what they are now.

The stock is trading at just 7 times earnings due to something, I've just been refusing to consider the pessimistic's perspective.

Well, not anymore, I just caved in.

The trading plan for TBSI is SELL.

Is anyone still holding this, earnings after the close!

I'm holding for the long term.

I re-bought today, hoping for some good earnings like some other dry shipping stocks had!

A clean (no extraordaries) $1.26 EPS for Q407.   ;D

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080312/0374145.html

Beating the one analyst's estimate by $0.22.

$34.00 and rising after hours.

I bought today also @$32. Glad I did now.

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 12, 2008, 05:04:13 PM
A clean (no extraordaries) $1.26 EPS for Q407.   ;D

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080312/0374145.html

Beating the one analyst's estimate by $0.22.

$34.00 and rising after hours.

After that meeting of all the 'dry shipping CEO's' where they stated that things were going very well and the future looked good for their sector + the fact that the BDI was at an all time high in the 4rd qtr, I was fairly confident about their earnings.


from yahoo:
Assuming (incorrectly) that they earn $1.26 for the next 3 quarters with NO growth....

That's $5.04 in earnings for the next year including the just reported quarter. That's a P/E ratio of 6.8!!!!! (34 / 5.04).

Now plug growth in, and you have a P/E well BELOW 5!!! Earnings grew at 79% this quarter! What's that put the PEG ratio at???

It's a tough market to be able to hold onto gains, even with good news. 

We shall see what the market wishes to say about it. I bought March $40 calls before the close as a way of potentially profiting on good news movement whilst limiting my risk relative to normal equity position size / max loss.

May look to add an equity position if it breaks the $35 zone with any volume / conviction.

Unbelievable, good earnings + CC, demand for their business keeps growing but TBSI goes down!   ???
Maybe some funds that desperately wanted to unload but I still believe TBSI is very attractive here at this level and undervalued, hopefully we'll see back $40 soon.

Btw, isn't that a little head and shoulders forming, we're at the right shoulder now, thoughts?


TBS International Limited, Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/68455-tbs-international-limited-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo (http://seekingalpha.com/article/68455-tbs-international-limited-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo)

Some highlights from their CC:

- But most importantly, TBS is benefiting from the current positive freight environment as we renewed Contracts of Affreightment for 2008 at increased freight rates compared to our 2007 experience.

- further expansion of the fleet

- First of all our new service from Japan and the Far East, Korea and China going into Brazil is based around specialty steels for the automotive industry in Brazil and we see this growing into, with our present customers, into a five year contract business. So that's very solid.


- our business plan has been centered around growth and as you can see from the presentation that we just made, we're continuing to grow the company. There are tremendous opportunities and we as management feel and continue to feel that the best use of the company's cash is to continue to grow the company.


-We could actually use several more ships at this moment if we could plug them into the business. We have the cargo to carry.

-Yes, well our business, and we do this year after year, is that we finalize our contracts for the coming year and the end of the quarter 2007 and we have finalized our contracts and our customers have not only have we finalized these contracts at increased rates, but all of our customers have said that they expect more volume to be moved in 2008 so we're very, very excited where the company is positioned for 2008.

- We will not require a secondary offering to complete the new building program, no. It will come from normal term loan and cash flow.

- I think right now as I said earlier the opportunities for this company our numerous, the markets are very strong. The growth potential is solid and we see this as being again, the best use of the company's cash to grow the company and take advantage of this very, very strong and solid shipping market.

Jefferies Analyst Report     


Investment Summary
With strong demand for dry bulk commodities and continued growth
expected in both the Asian and South American economies, we
believe TBSI shares are attractively valued due to the anticipated
strengthening charter rate environment which could provide upside to
our estimates.


Event
TBS International reported 4Q07 EPS of $1.25 which easily
exceeded our estimate of $1.04 on stronger than anticipated time
charter rates earned during the quarter and a higher than expected
number of chartered-out days during the quarter.
Key Points
• TBSI Reported 4Q07 EPS Of $1.25 Which Easily Exceeded Our
Estimate Due To Stronger Than Anticipated Time Charter Rates
And A Higher Than Expected Number Of Chartered-Out Days
• Maintaining 2008 And 2009 EPS Estimates As Our Outlook
Remains Unchanged; Modestly Higher Rate Expectations Offset By
Higher Drydocking Time And G&A Expenses
• Recovery In Dry Bulk Shipping Charter Rates Expected To
Continue As Iron Ore Volumes Increase With The Conclusion Of
Contract Price Negotiations And Production Capacity Expands
• Modest Financial Leverage Provides TBS International Ample
Flexibility To Pursue Additional Acquisition Opportunities To
Expand Current And Develop New Lines Of Business
• Reiterate Buy Rating As We Expect Attractive Fundamental Market
Conditions To Be Reflected In Share Price And Strengthening
Charter Rate Environment To Provide Upside To Estimates
Valuation/Risks
With strong demand for dry bulk commodities and continued growth
expected in both the Asian and South American economies, we
believe TBSI shares are attractively valued due to the anticipated
strengthening charter rate environment which could provide upside to
our estimates. In fact, the underlying fundamentals of TBS' business
remain very attractive with dry bulk shipping charter rates rebounding
sharply since the recent lows set in late January/early February.
Furthermore, TBS continues to benefit from the ongoing strength in
the South American trade and growth into new markets such as the
Mediterranean, increased backhaul voyages carrying coal from
Colombia and Venezuela to Brazil and Argentina which increases
fleet efficiency, and also a strong balance sheet which should enable
TBS to continue acquiring vessels to meet the increasing needs of
customers by expanding the Company's global footprint. With
expectations for dry bulk vessel time charter rates to continue to
strengthen and TBS to announce additional fleet acquisitions in
addition to the six newbuildings it already has on order, we reiterate
our Buy rating and our 12-month price target of $72 price which is
based on TBSI shares trading at 14-15 times 2008E EPS, 10-11
times 2008E CFPS, and 10-11 times 2008E EV/EBITDA. Risks to our
price target include: (1) lower demand for dry bulk commodities
globally, (2) sustained weakness in South American economies, (3) a
significant increase in the size of the dry bulk or tweendecker fleet.

Seems like a nice breakout on the daily and weekly chart, needs some volume though ...


(http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/258/tbsikv9.jpg)



(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/2921/tbsi1bd2.jpg)

I'm still in this one. It seems if the market recovers this year,this stock should be a leader. I'd like to see at least $50,but do I know.

David,since you're picking EXM for the tech portfolio,do you think TBSI will have a similar rise? I'm still waiting for $50.

Still holding here, chart looks tasty!  :)

BDI way up today.Dry bulk shippers all screaming higher.

TBS International Limited Announces Date for the Release of the First Quarter 2008 Results, Conference Call and Webcast
Monday , April 14, 2008 08:59ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200603/250144_tbs.gif

HAMILTON, BERMUDA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 04/14/08 -- TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced today that after the market closes in New York on Thursday, May 8, 2008, it will release its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008.

The next day, Friday, May 9, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. EDT, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

&

TBS International Limited Announces the Acquisition of a Handymax Bulk Carrier Expanding Its Fleet to 44 Vessels
Monday , April 21, 2008 16:24ET
http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200603/250144_tbs.gif

HAMILTON, BERMUDA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 04/21/08 -- TBS International Limited (NASDAQ: TBSI) announced today that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the M.V. North Star, to be renamed the M.V. Houma Belle, a 1985 built, 42,219 dwt handymax bulk carrier. TBS agreed to acquire the vessel charter free for $34.0 million with expected delivery in June 2008.

Following this acquisition, TBS' fleet will comprise 44 vessels in total, with an aggregate of 1,310,719 dwt, consisting of 23 multipurpose tweendeckers and a combination of 21 handysize and handymax bulk carriers.

Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "We are very pleased to announce the acquisition of the M.V. Houma Belle, which expands our drybulk fleet to 21 vessels and our total fleet to 44 vessels. This acquisition reflects our strategy to identify the needs of our customers and in turn acquire a diversified fleet to meet those needs. The addition of this vessel will enhance our ability to generate strong revenues and take advantage of the strength in the shipping market."

Chart:

  Nice numbers! 49.00AH! 

Press Release   Source: TBS International Limited

TBS International Limited Reports First Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Thursday May 8, 4:05 pm ET

HAMILTON, BERMUDA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 8, 2008 -- TBS International Limited (NasdaqGS:TBSI - News) announced today its financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008.

First Quarter 2008 highlights:


Metric                                            Q1 2008        Q1 2007
------                                         -------------  -------------
Revenue (thousands)                            $     131,576  $      70,326
Net Income (thousands)                         $      45,378  $      14,404
EPS (diluted)                                  $        1.62  $        0.51
Weighted Average Number of Shares (diluted)       28,080,071     28,035,881
EBITDA (thousands)(1)                          $      64,300  $      25,419
Drydock Days                                             147            212

Freight Voyages
---------------
Average Daily Voyage TCE                       $      28,303  $      17,816
Freight Voyage Days                                    2,375          1,898
Tons of Cargo Shipped (thousands)                      2,044          1,502
Average Freight Rate for All Cargoes           $       48.02  $       34.58
Average Freight Rate excluding Aggregates      $       86.32  $       55.19
Bunker Cost/Voyage Day                         $       6,233  $       4,318

Time Charter out Voyages
------------------------
Average Daily Time Charter TCE                 $      30,339  $      17,115
Time Charter Days                                      1,030            994

   (1) EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to "Non-GAAP
       Reconciliations-EBITDA" following the financial statements included
       in this press release for a reconciliation of EBITDA to Net Income.

ADVERTISEMENT

Management Commentary:

Joseph E. Royce, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated: "In the first quarter of 2008, TBS continued to build on the momentum we generated in 2007, achieving record quarterly results for revenues, EBITDA, net income and earnings per share. With our increased cargo volumes, enlarged fleet and improved freight rates, we have a positive outlook for the entire year.

"Once again I must applaud the professionalism and dedication of the almost 280 worldwide employees of TBS and our affiliated agencies who executed the TBS business growth model as a pure dry cargo shipping and logistics company. This positioning as a solid growth company has enabled TBS to prosper significantly from the very positive cargo volume and freight rate environment that is buoying the dry cargo market.

"The Logistics division of our TBS Five Star Service (Ocean Transportation, Logistics, Port Services, Operations and Strategic Planning) is gaining traction and the prospects for 2008 look promising.

"TBS increased cargo volumes and gained market share in our established trading lanes. We grow our fleet in response to the growth of our business and are looking for suitable vessel acquisitions in the second-hand market. Our program to build six Roymar Class 34,000 dwt multipurpose vessels with retractable tweendecks is progressing with the laying of the keel of the first vessel having taken place in March. We are scheduled to receive delivery of two vessels in 2009 and four vessels in 2010. We are now investigating the feasibility of building additional vessels for delivery in 2011.

"Since January 1, 2008, as a result of our customers' expanded dry cargo transportation requirements, we:

-- Took delivery of six vessels and have two additional vessels under purchase contracts. This will bring our operational fleet to 44 vessels comprised of 23 multipurpose tweendeckers and 21 handymax/ handysize bulk carriers;

-- Financed the six delivered vessels and increased our liquidity;

-- Secured a new contract for the transport of about two million tons of aggregates in the Middle East; and

-- Celebrated the fifteenth anniversary of the founding of our Company in March.

"As part of our comprehensive drydock program, which will continue in 2008, TBS drydocked five vessels during the first quarter, including one vessel which extended in the drydock from the fourth quarter of 2007, and plans to drydock 17 vessels for the full year (plus new vessel acquisitions scheduled for a 2008 drydock).

"TBS is strategically positioned to participate in the expanding globalization of world trade, particularly in logistic and project businesses relating to the steel, mining, energy and construction industries. We have strong franchises in Latin America, East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Our TBS fleet of multipurpose tweendeckers is uniquely suited to the transportation of project cargoes, and our portside and inland logistics services enable TBS to provide complete solutions for the project's transportation requirements.

"Looking at 2008 and beyond, we believe that TBS is positioned to continue benefiting from the positive fundamentals of our business growth model."

Ferdinand V. Lepere, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, commented: "The expansion of our overall liquidity through the negotiation of additional credit facilities at competitive terms is a testimony to our strong financial condition and profitability, as well as to the soundness of TBS' business model. Specifically, we:

-- Continued our moderate leverage, strong financial condition and access to bank financing;

-- Closed a $75 million loan facility with a syndicate of banks led by DVB Group Merchant Bank (Asia) Ltd.;

-- Closed a $35 million loan facility with AIG Commercial Equipment Finance, Inc.;

-- Restructured and expanded our credit facility with the Banc of America Syndicate to $267.5 million from its existing balance of approximately $120 million. This expansion, originally targeted at $200 million, was oversubscribed; and

-- Received commitments from two European Banks to separately finance the Ottawa Princess and the Caribe Maiden.

"We are particularly pleased with the support from the international banking community."

First Quarter 2008 Results:

For the first quarter ended March 31, 2008, total revenues were $131.6 million, an increase of 87.2% compared to the $70.3 million for the same period in 2007. Net income for the first quarter 2008 was $45.4 million, an increase of 215.3% compared to $14.4 million for the same period in 2007. Net income was $1.62 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $0.51 for the first quarter 2007.

EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP measure, increased 153.1% to $64.3 million for the first quarter 2008 from $25.4 million in 2007. Please see "Non-GAAP Reconciliations - EBITDA" following the financial statements in this press release for a reconciliation of EBITDA to net income.

Revenues:

Total revenues of $131.6 million for the first quarter 2008 include voyage revenues of $98.2 million, time charter revenues of $32.7 million and other revenues of $0.7 million.

An average of 37 vessels (excluding off-hire) were operated during the first quarter 2008 compared to 32 vessels (excluding off-hire) during the same period of 2007.

Voyage Revenues:

Voyage revenues in the first quarter 2008 were $98.2 million, an increase of $46.3 million or 89.2% from the $51.9 million during the same period in 2007.

General cargo volume (excluding aggregates) increased 153,079 tons or 18.2% to 993,829 tons for the first quarter 2008 from 840,750 tons for the same period in 2007. Reflecting stronger market conditions, freight rates excluding aggregates increased $31.13 per ton or 56.4% to $86.32 per ton for the first quarter 2008 from $55.19 per ton during the same period in 2007.

Average Daily Voyage Time Charter Equivalent, which is an industry standard metric reflecting the daily net earnings of a voyage after deducting all voyage expenses from voyage revenues, was $28,303 per vessel in the first quarter 2008, an increase of 58.9% from the $17,816 during the same period in 2007 and an increase of 17.2% from the $24,149 per day during the fourth quarter 2007, indicative of the continued market strength in the industry.

Total cargo volume (including aggregates) increased 541,862 tons or 36.1% to 2,043,952 tons for the first quarter 2008 from 1,502,090 for the same period in 2007. The majority of the increase in the cargo volume is attributed to the increase in aggregates carried as well as an increase in the non-aggregate bulk cargo products carried.

Time Charter Revenues:

Time charter revenues increased by $14.6 million or 80.7% to $32.7 million for the first quarter 2008 from $18.1 million for the same period in 2007.

Average Daily Time Charter Equivalent which is an industry standard metric reflecting time charter-out revenues during the period reduced by commissions was $30,339 per day in the first quarter 2008, an increase of 77.3% from the $17,115 during the same period of 2007. The increase in the average charter hire rate per day is mainly due to the continued strength in the overall worldwide shipping spot market rates.

Expenses:

Total operating expenses for the first quarter 2008 increased by $28.0 million or 52.7% to $81.1 million from $53.1 million for the same period in 2007. However, as a percentage of revenue, total operating expenses decreased by 13.9% to 61.6% for the first quarter of 2008 from 75.5% for the same period of 2007.

Voyage expenses, which include fuel, commissions, port call charges and stevedoring increased by $13.2 million or 69.0% to $32.4 million for the first quarter 2008. However, as a percentage of total revenue, they decreased by 2.7% as compared to the same period last year. The increase is due to higher average fuel costs and commission expense as a result of higher voyage revenues, as well as port call expenses and stevedore and other cargo-related expenses.

Vessel expenses which consist of operating expenses relating to owned vessels, such as crewing, stores, maintenance, insurance and charter hire for vessels we chartered-in increased by $5.8 million or 33.0% to $23.4 million for the first quarter 2008 as compared to $17.6 million for the same period in 2007. This increase reflects an increase in average daily operating costs and the number of vessel days for owned/controlled vessels as well as increased hire rates for vessels we charter in.

General and administrative expenses increased by $4.6 million or 63.9% to $11.8 million in the first quarter 2008 reflecting an increase in staff levels due to the growth of TBS' business.

Net interest expense for the first quarter 2008 increased by $0.7 million as compared to the same period last year. This is primarily due to higher debt levels, higher fees and amortized deferred financing costs, and a decrease in the valuation of an interest rate swap contract that did not qualify for hedge accounting.

Recent Fleet Developments:

On March 25, 2008, TBS took delivery of the M.V. Ottawa Princess, formerly known as the M.V. Wedellsborg, an acquisition the Company announced in December 2007 when it was purchased en bloc for $46 million charter free along with its sister vessel, the M.V. Caribe Maiden.

On April 18, 2008, the Company entered into an agreement to acquire the M.V. North Star, to be renamed the M.V. Houma Belle, a 1985 built, 42,219 dwt handymax bulk carrier for $34.0 million. TBS expects to take delivery of this vessel in June 2008.

TBS's current fleet consists of 42 multipurpose tweendeckers, handymax and handysize vessels. TBS expects to take delivery of two handymax bulk carriers (the M.V. Canarsie Princess and M.V. Houma Belle) by the end of the second quarter 2008. Once these deliveries are concluded, the TBS fleet will be comprised of 44 vessels, with an aggregate of 1,310,719 dwt, including 23 multipurpose tweendeckers and a combination of 21 handysize and handymax bulk carriers.

Fleet Expansion and Newbuilding Program:

The previously announced TBS Newbuilding Program to construct six multipurpose vessels with retractable tweendecks is proceeding with the laying of the keel of the first vessel in March 2008. We expect delivery of two vessels in 2009 and four vessels in 2010.

TBS entered into a $150 million term loan credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by The Royal Bank of Scotland to finance the building and purchase of these six new multipurpose vessels.

TBS 2008 Intensive Drydock and Vessel Upgrade Program:

For 2008, TBS plans to drydock 17 vessels for approximately 572 drydocking days with a steel renewal of about 2,695 metric tons at a total cost of approximately $16.4 million.

Our anticipated 2008 drydocking schedule is as follows:

-- During the three months ended March 31, 2008, TBS drydocked one vessel that entered into drydock during the fourth quarter of 2007 and continued its drydocking for 15 days in the first quarter of 2008. Additionally, four vessels entered drydock requiring about 895 metric tons of steel for a total of 132 drydock days.

-- Second quarter 2008, five vessels requiring about 650 metric tons of steel and about 200 drydock days.

-- Third quarter 2008, three vessels requiring about 350 metric tons of steel and about 100 drydock days.

-- Fourth quarter 2008, four vessels requiring about 800 metric tons of steel and about 125 days in drydock.

Conference call and webcast:

On Friday, May 9, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. EDT, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

Conference call details:

Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes before the scheduled time using the following numbers: 1-888-713-4216 (from the US) or 1-617-213-4868 (International Dial In). Participant Passcode: 83764873. The conference call will also be webcast live on the company's website: www.tbsship.com by clicking on the webcast link. Participants may pre-register for the call at https://www.theconferencingservice.com/prereg/key.process?key=PLEJC8TEB.

Pre-registrants will be issued a PIN number to use when dialing into the live call which will provide quick access to the conference by bypassing the operator upon connection.

Webcast:

There will also be a live -- and then archived -- slides and audio webcast of the conference call on the company's website www.tbsship.com, which can be accessed by clicking on the webcast link. As soon as practicable, the webcast and the corresponding slides will be archived and will also be accessible on our website.

Replay:

QuoteNice numbers! 49.00AH!

Yep, awesome results, 36% better than what the one analyst following the company was expecting:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45530;image)

If TBSI just does as well in the upcoming three quarters as it did in Q1 2008, it will report $1.62*4 = $6.48 EPS for the full year. The analyst following the company is expecting just $5.02. I guess he'll have to raise his full year estimate, after this significant positive surprise in Q1.

I'll post the report on this thread when/if it comes out.

This one is another for my wall of shame, which is starting to get pretty extensive.

Congrats to anyone still holding ;)

I'm not holding anymore but I am a 'TBSI believer' because I like the sector they are in!  :)

I kept buying this all the way down to $20. This whole sector was clobbered; I just rode out the storm.

update

I have been in & out of TBSI several times in last couple of months and since I believe the markets head higher for awhile I thought I would post that I am back in again today at 39.45.  We will know in the fullness of time if my crystal ball is still working.

poli

I sold all mine in the 40's. BDI down hard today. Not sure,but I think this might hit $30 again before it gets back to $50. As always,we shall see. Good luck Poli.

I think that TBSI is extreamly undervalued!  :o

Shipping will always be there !
China 5-10% YOY growth will be there !
Look at TBSI's profits growth!

What is going on?!  ??? ??? ???
Any thoughts?