3SOF

Good morning :)

At first, when I saw CPNE's numbers out today (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070222/20070222005313.html?.v=1), I immediately thought I should sell it here on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), but as I walked for a coffee I saw it with fresh new eyes, the eyes of someone looking at the stock for the first time.

Those eyes see:

- $0.18 full year 2006 EPS. Means trailing earnings multiple of $3.32/$0.18 = 18.4
- 275% year on year revenue growth
- 4th quarter basic EPS of 9 cents and fully diluted EPS of 8 cents. Multiply this latest number by four quarters, and not considering potential growth, which is a lot, one easily gets to a forward earnings multiple of 10.4.

This looks very cheap to me.

But, there's the possibility of the market, as I and Michael did, expected even more. Today there will be a struggle between people that are new to the stock and see outstanding numbers, and people that were already in the stock and expected even better numbers.

I don't know who will win the fight. I'll let the market speak, and I'll listen. If CPNE.OB starts falling down and prints $3.15, I'll sell my shares held here on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), which were bought at $2.08. If the stock opens and starts rising, surpassing the most recent high of $3.48, I'll probably keep holding. Will also listen to the webcast at 11:30 am ET (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070212/lam057.html?.v=82).

By all means I'll keep on holding it as a long term investment at the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), very hard to find such an attractive small cap.

I think today can be ETLT.OB's day to push significantly higher, we'll see. I'll also continue to hold PFSW.

By the way, I welcome your suggestions to cover some more stocks today, thanks :)

hi david,
what about BRNC?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070222/earns_bronco_drilling.html?.v=1

cheers from SG
Oliver

CLRT?

I was distracted selling XING first, sold CPNE.OB just now at $3.2.

Hello David. I think that I will just maintain my position in cpne.ob. It was tempting  to sell but I decided just to hang on and make the big profit later on. I am not going to watch the stock today I think I will go for a walk instead. 

Bought TRMM @ $3.25.

I'm holding CPNE as well for the moment, will watch it today. 

Not sure if I suggested this earlier, but what about AWNE?

The board is very slow today .. at least for me .. takes a few minutes for anything new to load...

David,

I'd like to know what you think of EXM?  It has a great chart and forward PE of about 7.

Jim

Quote from: tireslinger on February 22, 2007, 09:41:53 AM
Hello David. I think that I will just maintain my position in cpne.ob. It was tempting  to sell but I decided just to hang on and make the big profit later on. I am not going to watch the stock today I think I will go for a walk instead. 

Well, I'm also keeping the majority of my CPNE.OB shares for the long term. I see any dip as a buying opportunity.

But I had the plan of selling it today, here, at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), for long, so I respected the plan.

On to another speculative venture (not new), TRMM.

I'm still holding CPNE and it has rebounded to 3.24. It was a tense 15 minutes at the open though!

VDSI - see my post of yesterday - up another 5% today

David,
     New to the site.  I like your research.  Can you give me your opinion on OFI? 
Thank you.

PLRS breaks out with good news annouced.....reach high of 0.08
now 0.075,15% up
Compare the volumes in 09/206 and this month: there were 3 days that volumes are over 100m shares,but price doesn't go up a lot,but this month,sometimes less than 1m shares volume can push it high....
So what does it mean?

Quote[Bought TRMM @ $3.25./quote]


David,
Can you explain why you bought a company that reported a loss of $5.98 a share. Is it future guidance?

Thanks, echo

Today, I finished transferring most of my funds to my new broker ZECCO.

The first stock I've bought is TRMM and it was a normal and speedy execution.

Quote from: txo066 on February 22, 2007, 10:18:20 AM
David,
     New to the site.  I like your research.  Can you give me your opinion on OFI? 
Thank you.

OFI? I love it !

It is one the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) holdings. I bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) at $3.8 and sold at $5.22, as you can read on the portfolio's page. But I bought it for longer term purposes at $4.8 and I'm still holding.

My estimate calls for calendar 2007 EPS of $0.67, and that should put OFI trading in the $10 - $15 area before the year closes. Good luck :)

Quote
David,
Can you explain why you bought a company that reported a loss of $5.98 a share. Is it future guidance?

Thanks, echo

TRMM has been selling assets at a price that puts the value of the remaining assets minus debt at roughly $6 a share. Please check my previous comments on the stock at the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0).

I wish it breaks out above $3.30 on close.

David, remember when I asked you about buy JADE in a dip?    ;D  ;D  ;D

Quote from: nica33 on February 22, 2007, 10:41:49 AM
David, remember when I asked you about buy JADE in a dip?    ;D  ;D  ;D

Sure, fantastic trade nica33 :)

I said, "yeah, good idea, great stock", but then do nothing ???

Well, life is full of missed opportunities if one chooses to look at it that way.

But nica33, I don't know, when that thing turns it will go from up 10% to down 10%. I feel that day is today. But that's just a feeling, I hope I'm wrong.

Good luck ;)

David, can you give your opinion on MGPI. Moving up sharply today. Thanks

Quote from: TVandenbosch on February 22, 2007, 10:10:50 AM
VDSI - see my post of yesterday - up another 5% today

Thanks for the suggestion TVandenbosch, but look at the reply I gave nica33 yesterday, on the same topic:

Quote

Quote from: nica33 on February 21, 2007, 10:06:10 AM
Hi David, I asked yesterday for VDSI. Thanks!

When I knew a lot less about stocks than I do now I was short VDSI, and paid 5% or so for my ignorance :D

Technically the stock is extremely bullish, after yesterday's long and white marubozu.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $670 M

Hold it right there! The limit is $500 M market cap, as you know or can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0)

There's a place to request analysis for companies with more than $500 M market cap, but I guess you would have to be a Premium member to do that (sorry ;D)

Maybe someday you will be, we could use a member with your level of expertize ... (or expertise? English is not so easy)

Sorry, VDSI is too large for this message board. Great chart, though, congrats on your trade :)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2007, 10:44:36 AM

Quote from: nica33 on February 22, 2007, 10:41:49 AM
David, remember when I asked you about buy JADE in a dip?    ;D  ;D  ;D

Sure, fantastic trade nica33 :)

I said, "yeah, good idea, great stock", but then do nothing ???

Well, life is full of missed opportunities if one chooses to look at it that way.

But nica33, I don't know, when that thing turns it will go from up 10% to down 10%. I feel that day is today. But that's just a feeling, I hope I'm wrong.

Good luck ;)

Sure David.  I feel that too.  I guess it's time for a consolidation

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 10:48:56 AM
David, can you give your opinion on MGPI. Moving up sharply today. Thanks

Kind of losing momentum now, but this stock has some nice fundamentals it seems, I can see why it got the upgrade (which is why its moving up today).  MSN says its PE is 14 vs industry PE of 46.8  :o

Quote from: la-onda on February 22, 2007, 09:24:18 AM
hi david,
what about BRNC?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070222/earns_bronco_drilling.html?.v=1

cheers from SG
Oliver

Hi Oliver, I hope you're doing well down there in Singapore :)

As for BRNC, technically the stock is bearish. Today it opened with a gap up due to the news you're referring to, touching the descending 50 days simple moving average. It has since come off a bit.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $395 M. Provides contract land drilling services to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies. The Company owns a fleet of land drilling rigs.
• Current ratio is 2.04, balance sheet looks ok, but not great
• Revenues are growing by leaps and bounds, they were $21.9 M in 2004, $77.9 M in 2005 and now $285.8 M in 2006.
• EPS for 2006 was $2.43, and that puts trailing earnings multiple at 6.5, which seems incredibly low

Analysts are expecting a bit of a decline in EPS for 2007, to $2.36, but maybe they're wrong. The stock seems too cheap to handle. Most oil related companies are trading at a deep discount valuation, because people are afraid oil will go down a lot if the world economy softens or enters a recession. I don't see any recession coming for the next several years, so I guess oil stocks are just cheap.

BRNC could be a nice candidate for the Main if it is able to reverse the bearish trend on the chart.

Over the short term, from your press release I see analysts were expecting better results than the ones actually posted, so maybe the stock will remain under pressure for some time.

Good luck if you own it :)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2007, 09:57:24 AM

Well, I'm also keeping the majority of my CPNE.OB shares for the long term. I see any dip as a buying opportunity.

But I had the plan of selling it today, here, at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), for long, so I respected the plan.

On to another speculative venture (not new), TRMM.

Just for the record, I'm still holding CPNE at short and long term....TRMM I'm still holding it with strong hands since the last trade.

Best Luck to all

Hi,David,
Can you give your TA opion about the follow:


PLRS breaks out with good news annouced.....reach high of 0.08
now 0.075,15% up
Compare the volumes in 09/206 and this month: there were 3 days that volumes are over 100m shares,but price doesn't go up a lot,but this month,sometimes less than 1m shares volume can push it high....
So what does it mean? ???


with this small volume ,how long the up trend could last?is there any chance the volume goes to over 100m shares again?hehe,by that time how high it would be if still in up trend?

Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Hello David,

I hope that you are having a terrific day. What is your outlook for ETLT.OB, TRMM and CPNE.OB over the next 2-3 weeks? 

Which stock do you think has the potential to make the strongest gains in the short-term?

Thanks - and please keep up the excellent work.....

Bourbon    ;D

QuoteI hope that you are having a terrific day. What is your outlook for ETLT.OB, TRMM and CPNE.OB over the next 2-3 weeks?

Which stock do you think has the potential to make the strongest gains in the short-term?

ETLT.OB has the potential to breakout above $1 over the next 2 or 3 weeks.

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 11:25:17 AM
Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Great chart, island reversal, Im in for a trade, thanks ;)

Quote from: kpunarc on February 22, 2007, 09:28:25 AM
CLRT?

Hi kpunarc, let's check CLRT.

Technically the stock is bullish, as it is trading above the 50 and 200 days moving averages. Trying to challenge the $1.82 recent high.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $116 M.The Company is an advanced oncology diagnostics technology and services company. Its mission is to combine innovative technologies, meaningful test results and world-class expertise to improve outcomes of patients suffering from cancer.
• Balance sheet is awful, with negative working capital of ($4.64 M)
• Revenues are growing nicely in 2006, quarter by quarter, but the company is still losing big bucks, at roughly ($4 M) a quarter

Well, this looks like one of those biotechnology companies I don't like it. At the rate they're losing money, they will have to dilute shareholder's value to keep those operations alive (since working capital is already negative).

Recent press releases look great, but over the short term, dilution is the only way out, and that will probably make the stock tank.

Can be wrong though, good luck :)

Hey David, could you check out PRW?

Thanks

I've listened to CPNE's Roth presentation, nothing new there, but the company is exactly what I thought it was, a really aggressive money making machine 8)

Sure, there's this dip today because numbers for Q4 were a bit on the light side, but still, there's no better value out there that I can see, and CPNE.OB has a bright future ahead.

David:
I thought the CPNE presentation was EXCELLENT. I probably wasnt as aware of all aspects of this story as you. So I found the entire discussion of the various parts of the CPNE biz and the interrelationships of the marketing, fulfillment, data collection, and lead generation operations as very very revealing. Liked the presentation a lot  :)

Makes me more comfortable in holding on during this difficult morning.

Hi david,

What do you think of PFSW?  Will it pass 1.23 in short term?  Thanks

chcg.ob on fire

Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2007, 12:04:48 PM

Quote from: kpunarc on February 22, 2007, 09:28:25 AM
CLRT?

Hi kpunarc, let's check CLRT.

Technically the stock is bullish, as it is trading above the 50 and 200 days moving averages. Trying to challenge the $1.82 recent high.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $116 M.The Company is an advanced oncology diagnostics technology and services company. Its mission is to combine innovative technologies, meaningful test results and world-class expertise to improve outcomes of patients suffering from cancer.
• Balance sheet is awful, with negative working capital of ($4.64 M)
• Revenues are growing nicely in 2006, quarter by quarter, but the company is still losing big bucks, at roughly ($4 M) a quarter

Well, this looks like one of those biotechnology companies I don't like it. At the rate they're losing money, they will have to dilute shareholder's value to keep those operations alive (since working capital is already negative).

Recent press releases look great, but over the short term, dilution is the only way out, and that will probably make the stock tank.

Can be wrong though, good luck :)

Sorry about that...i didn't check what kinda company it was. I appreciate you still doing the analysis.

-quick question...how many stocks can a user request per day...i have lis of about 10 incredibly bullish stocks to feed through the 3sof machine...

Quote from: TraderStar on February 22, 2007, 09:53:39 AM
I'm holding CPNE as well for the moment, will watch it today. 

Not sure if I suggested this earlier, but what about AWNE?

The board is very slow today .. at least for me .. takes a few minutes for anything new to load...

Yes, terribly slow, the server is not handling so many people refreshing pages at the same time. Ramsburg is coming back from vacations today, I'm sure he'll find a way to fix this annoying issue.

AWNE is a very recent stock on the market, and it is trading at a new all time high today, so, technically, it's bullish.

Let's see what we have on the fundamental front:

• Market cap is $58.5 M. The Company is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing and licensing medium sized wind turbines to wind farm developers in North America.
• Balance sheet shows negative working capital. Not good
• No revenues

AWNE.OB is a 3 employee company without any operations, it can't possibly be worth $58.5 M. Given the weak balance sheet I see the current rally as a pump and sell all the way down, EVCC.OB style.

Hi David,

I'm new to this board.  I aked about EXM earlier.  Can you tell me anything?  Also, why did you sell XING earlier?

Jim

Quote-quick question...how many stocks can a user request per day...i have lis of about 10 incredibly bullish stocks to feed through the 3sof machine...

Lol. Well, you can request the amount of analysis you like, but you know, my daily limit is about 20 analysis (it is physically impossible to do more), and lately I've been doing just about 10 each day, so ... well, I pick some to do on a random basis (usually I just start from the first requests to the last ones), but many are missed.

Someday all stocks will be covered already and the job of just updating previous analysis will be easier. It will be fun. It's fun already. Thanks for your participation :)

Quote from: Jim897 on February 22, 2007, 12:32:29 PM
Hi David,

I'm new to this board.  I aked about EXM earlier.  Can you tell me anything?  Also, why did you sell XING earlier?

Jim

Hi Jim, welcome to 3 Stocks :)

Well, I sold XING with a 27% on the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), due to this:

(I guess nobody will mind if I share the reasons on the free area, we already got our profit)

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 21, 2007, 11:28:59 AM
Thanks for clearing that up for me, David. Being a newbie, I'm probably more prone to panic and misinterpretation of the trend-- I'll keep my finger off the sell button. I feel very fortunate to receive this feedback from somebody with your level of experience and insight!  :)

Thanks jmccar2 :)

I had trouble sleeping today, thinking about XING. Let me explain:

On May, 10, 2006, DKR Capital Partners had the following:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33684;image)

On November 13, 2006, the following:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33685;image)

Hey, those convertible bonds increased from 40 million to 66 million >:(

On February 14, 2007, the following:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33686;image)

They sold a big chunk of their shares into the market, but it seems that when they convert and sell, there's always more to be converted.

Then, on a registration file issued on January 3, 2007 (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051846/000103570407000003/d41935b3e424b3.htm), I read this:

«Common Stock Outstanding as of December 7, 2006: 29,428,978 shares*

* The outstanding number of shares assumes that there has been no exercise of any of our warrants which were issued and outstanding as of December 7, 2006.»

With full dilution, the share count will rise to 36.63 million shares issued and outstanding, and this has to be the number used to calculate EPS on a fully diluted basis. Dutton Associates, on its coverage of the stock, didn't consider this or any change in the number of shares outstanding. If Dutton had considered the fully diluted number of shares, their estimate would then be $2.03 EPS, that is, 24% less than the $2.53 number.

Assuming total conversion of warrants and convertible bonds (although, it seems there's no control from the part of shareholders over this number, since it rose from 40,000,000 to 66,000,000 with no apparent reason) and frankly I don't like the situation, the current market cap would then be 36.63 M*$19.15 = $701 M, much higher than the $400 M the Fool analyst talked about in his February 13th, 2007 article:

• Qiao Xing Universal Telephone: A Chinese Nokia in the Making? (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=13gd7m8i0/*http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/02/13/qiao-xing-universal-telephone-a-chinese-nokia-in-t.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y)
at Motley Fool (Tue, Feb 13)

I say there's a reason why XING has remained "undervalued" for so long. The reason is the company has been and will continue to dilute shareholder's value. I think there's something hidden about convertible stuff and others, that's why they don't file form 10 with the SEC.

I attribute the current rally to three factors:

- Dutton Coverage talking about EPS of $2.53 for 2007;
- The Fool's article comparing XING with Nokia;
- Technical motives.

The first two are misleading in my opinion, and the third is derived from the first two, so, also misleading.

I have a 27.75% profit on XING and I've lost trust in the company.

The trading plan for XING is: take profits!

I won't consider buying it again, at least not until they file a proper form 10 with the SEC. Good luck to all that will continue holding :)

chcg.ob up 11% today.


news:

Maxim Group Starts China 3C Group (CHCG) at Buy
02-22-2007 08:28:11 AM


Maxim Group initiates coverage on China 3C Group (OTCBB: CHCG) with a Buy rating and $10 price target. Analyst Albert Lee said, "We believe that China 3C shares provide a ground floor opportunity to invest in a rapidly growing, under-perceived China-based retailer of 3C-related products (communication, computer, and consumer electronics). Founded originally as a distributor, the company has quickly and successfully transformed itself into an operator of over 800 independent retail stores across Eastern China, the country's fastest growing region that represents over 11% of the entire population and roughly 25% of total GDP.

Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

Quote from: tokyopua on February 22, 2007, 12:03:00 PM

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 11:25:17 AM
Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Great chart, island reversal, Im in for a trade, thanks ;)

Bam, COR breaking out! >:D

Not a long term investment, they seem to dillute a lot unless they made some acquisition, but a nice technical setup it seems.

David, what is your opinion of Security With Advanced Technology, Inc. (SWAT)?
Seems like they have a lot of new technology for the Security business.

Quote from: Jim897 on February 22, 2007, 09:56:07 AM
David,

I'd like to know what you think of EXM?  It has a great chart and forward PE of about 7.

Jim

EXM has an amazing chart! Very powerful bull trend going on. Let's make some fundamental tests:

• Market cap is $384 M. The Company is a provider of worldwide sea borne transportation services for dry bulk cargo including among others, iron ore, coal and grain, and steel products, fertilizers, cement, bauxite, sugar and scrap metal.
• Balance sheet shows they've been reducing long term debt, still at $195 M in Q3. Also $81 M in cash, not bad.
• Revenues are growing strongly, from $15 M in 2002 to about $119 M in 2006. Estimates for 2007 are for $135 M revenue.
• EPS in 05 was very high, at $3.64 (but the stock was declining throughout the year, this is interesting). EPS expected for 07 is $2.61, and that means a forward earnings multiple of 7.66, which looks attractive

Recent news have been fairly positive. I'm a bull on the shipping industry at this point and I feel EXM presents a great long term opportunity.

Thanks :)

WOW ,look at TBUS today.Had a high of 2.59,now that's on fire!!SYNX may follow

hello david..........any thoughts about "AVNX"..........
thanks.....marlene ::)

Hi David,

Hope you are fine. Long time without to talk with you (previously we talked in our native language).  I feel stupid in write to you in English!!!  First of all, congratulations to you and to PM for all the good work.  Keep on that!

What do you think about MFI?  The Average Daily Volume is lower than the 50.000 (around 35.000) but the chart and fundamentals are good.  

XIDE has a new high today. NTTL good to buy on some deep.

Thank you David,almost double on both.

David, CHINA   

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 10:48:56 AM
David, can you give your opinion on MGPI. Moving up sharply today. Thanks

Sure. Technically the stock is bearish, gapping up to retest a broken support, now resistance. Also below the 50 days and 200 days moving average.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $327 M. A fully integrated producer of certain ingredients and distillery products and has two reportable segments, ingredients and distillery products.
• The company bought back some shares in the past (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=mgpi&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), I like that.
• Balance sheet looks healthy
• Revenues are growing steadily since 2003. At $322 M for fiscal 2006.
• In terms of profits, the company has been earnings about 40 cents per share for the past 3 quarters, so we could make a fair estimate at $1.6 EPS for a full year. With the stock trading at $20.1, that means an earnings multiple of about 12.5, which looks cheap

They made a great presentation at Roth today, and it seems the latest couple of quarters were great, which makes MGPI fundamentally cheap. But, I have to be honest with you, it is a boring stock. I don't expect it to go up fast, but probably gradually go up over time.

Good luck :)

Quote from: tokyopua on February 22, 2007, 12:53:46 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on February 22, 2007, 12:03:00 PM

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 11:25:17 AM
Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

Great chart, island reversal, Im in for a trade, thanks ;)

Bam, COR breaking out! >:D

Not a long term investment, they seem to dillute a lot unless they made some acquisition, but a nice technical setup it seems.

Rudy, can you tell me where you saw the news of the hold being released?  It looks like this thing has triggered a short squeeze.  Applauds twice for the pick, Im up 23% so far, you ROCK!

Quote from: cramercramer on February 22, 2007, 01:53:13 PM
XIDE has a new high today. NTTL good to buy on some deep.

Thank you David,almost double on both.

Now that you mention it, today I was writing a buy recommendation for XIDE, but then saw the share count rising from 24.5 million to 60.7 million and mistakenly concluded the market cap was more than $1 B already ???

But no, just about $546 M market cap. I'll probably need to chase XIDE higher tomorrow, trading at a deep discount considering revenues and profit potential.

Congrats :)

Quote from: rudynostalgia on February 22, 2007, 11:25:17 AM
Cortex ( COR ) is up sharply. I know it's biotech.  Firm got hit with FDA hold on dosing, but looks like that's about to be lifted.  Opinion, David?

The stock was way oversold hence the strong rebound. Fundamentally I don't see any value at the company, as I don't see any value in 90% of biotechnology companies, especially those that like COR have been around for 20 years or more just diluting shareholder's value to continue operations.

COR loses ($3 M) to ($4 M) a quarter. Sure, maybe someday they can start selling something and get nice profits, the risk is that will take another 20 years and the company just lays down and dies on the OTCBB or Pinks.

Great trade though ;)

I've been into Cortex for several years and have a huge position in it.  It has very strong science behind it and got a bad bump down when FDA said its animal test dosing was too high. They have spent months preparing a reply, which was sent to the FDA late last year. I've developed a few contacts among fellow shareholders who are close to the company (not too close, I hope.)  Their info has been very good so far (they warned about the downdraft, for example.) 

David, MJH please!!

Quote from: Matix04 on February 22, 2007, 12:05:58 PM
Hey David, could you check out PRW?

Thanks

Technically the current move looks just like a powerful rebound in a bearish trend. The stock might pull back by the close and close below the 200 days moving average, currently at $1.42.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $44.6 M. The Company is a development stage company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of carbohydrate-based therapeutic compounds.

Well, they had zero revenues since inception, I refuse to cover companies without any revenues, as you can read on the 3 SOF Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0).

Thanks anyway :)


[/list]

Quote from: tocitygirl on February 22, 2007, 12:17:31 PM
Hi david,

What do you think of PFSW?  Will it pass 1.23 in short term?  Thanks

Yeah, I think so. After the current short term consolidation is over I see it running to test the $1.44 high. Fundamentals warrant that and that's the technical target of the inverted head & shoulders pattern on the chart below.

Hey David is CPNE making you nervous yet?? What do think it will do over the next few months?

OSTE - Osteotech

Osteotech, Inc. develops technologies and products to efficiently and effectively utilize bone and bone connective tissue (allograft bone tissue). Utilizing its expertise in musculoskeletal tissue technology, Osteotech provides services, and develops, markets and sells products to the orthopedic, neurological, oral/maxillofacial and general surgery markets around the world. The Company s primary operation is engaged in the processing of allograft bone tissue used for transplantation. The Company has two primary operating segments: Demineralized Bone Matrix (DBM) and Base Allograft Bone Tissue (Base Tissue). The DBM segment engages in the processing and marketing of Grafton and private label DBMs. The Base Tissue segment primarily engages in the processing of mineralized weight-bearing allograft bone tissue, including the Company s Graftech Bio-Implant allograft bone tissue forms.

NEWS: On Feb. 8, Osteotech, a bone graft products maker, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its bone-polymer biocomposite Plexur, which can be used to fill bony voids of the pelvis and extremities.

Stock has been up since then, on strong volumes.

My ratings:
T/A: ++
Analysts: ++
P/E: +
Profitability: --
Risk factors: --

Quote from: zgakira on February 22, 2007, 12:20:11 PM
chcg.ob on fire

Gee, enormous bullish breakout today. No doubt the chart points North in a serious way.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $289 M. The Company is now engaged in the business of mobile phone, facsimile machines distribution.
• Balance sheet shows no liquidity problems
• Revenues are growing very strongly, but gross margin is low. Revenues of $42 M in Q3 2006 alone.
• EPS of $0.14 for the past 3 quarters, say $0.20 - $0.25 for the full year?

Trailing earnings multiple is about 25 ... seems like a lot for a Chinese company that began operations just 4 or 5 quarters ago. Also, almost $300 M market cap for an OTCBB traded company with very low gross and net profit margins.

I don't know, chart looks great, but already almost $300 M market cap, I don't trust it.

Good luck :)

David,

what do you think about ANGN?

Hey Dave. I know you that you don't like to buy more stock when a stock is going down, but I could not resist buying more CPNE.OB at these prices. I don't think the quarter was all that bad but they did miss what wall street was expecting so they must be punished. I think we will get a good bounce towards the close or maybe tomorrow. Good luck with TRMM.

Quote from: tireslinger on February 22, 2007, 03:01:20 PM
Hey David is CPNE making you nervous yet?? What do think it will do over the next few months?

Not nervous, but a bit sad ... it is like seeing that great, great stock, SYX, at one point it was down 6% on the session, when it is obvious to anyone that it will rise a lot higher within some time.

Unfortunately, the fundamental value doesn't matter when people are holding shares with fat profits and just want to take those profits, regardless of everything.

CPNE's numbers were a bit below my estimates, and I had the plan of selling today for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), so I did that right after the open. But I kept the majority of my shares, as you know, since we're holding it on the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).

As I see it, the stock is now trading at $2.83/$0.18 = 15.7 times trailing earnings.

If they make just the same as they did in Q4 2006 for the entire 2007 (and we know there's growth), EPS will be $0.32 and CPNE is trading at 8.8 forward earnings multiple. But I expect a lot more than 8 cents a quarter going forward, so ... well, I believe any dip on this stock is a buying opportunity, there's no debt, no dilution, strong revenue and EPS growth, very fat net profit margin, everything a man wants in a stock to rise 10 or 20 fold.

Hey Dave,

Thoughts on the new out on PMED today and the action we've seen the last week or so. Seems to be holding between .018-.022 pretty steady.  The news was pretty vague other than they say they narrowed losses for Q4 and that they are planning on being much more aggressive now that they have some new products.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Dave, in regards to XIDE, are you thinking about buying it for the main portfolio or the 3stocks on fire fund? 

Quote from: bcsengrng on February 22, 2007, 12:50:17 PM
Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

Everybody can sell a stock short (provided they have a margin account), they don't need to buy puts to take advantage of a fall in a share price.

A stock doesn't need to be shorted to go down ... I covered ACY a couple of days ago, here's what I said back then and the updated chart:

«

Quote from: njshiva on February 20, 2007, 09:55:54 AM
David,  can you look into ACY when you get a chance.

«What an incredible bull run njshiva, I hope you're holding ACY :)

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $28.47 M. The Company is engaged in the business of investing in used regional aircraft equipment leased to foreign and domestic regional air carriers
- The share count (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=acy&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) remained absolutely the same since 1997, needless to say I like that
- Balance sheet looks ok
- Revenue trend is positive. They reported 2006 revenue of $18 M, so the Price to Sales Ratio is 1.55 now.
- They reported $0.62 EPS for the full year 2006, and that puts the trailing earnings multiple at 29.5. But, 4th quarter EPS was $0.35, and if we multiply this by four we get to a full year EPS of $1.4 and that means a forward earnings multiple of 13, which can be considered cheap. The problem is Q4 revenues were lower than Q4 2005.

ACY had the most amazing bull run, from $5.5 to the current $18.5, in just three and a half months. I believe it is fully valued now.

I don't know if this business model has all that much space to grow ... amazing run so far (and today too), congrats njshiva :)»

This was on Tuesday. In fact, the market cap is so low that tomorrow morning I'll take a deeper look at ACY, might be a nice buying opportunity on this pullback.

Good luck :)

Quote from: bcsengrng on February 22, 2007, 12:50:17 PM
Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

Let me also give my 2 cents.

With a stock that is heavily shorted options often works in reverse.

If you are short a stock you have an unlimited risk. To limit your risk you can buy call options so you at least know what your maximum exposure is.

So some traders that are bearish on the stock sell the "physical" stock short and buy call options and some don't trade the stock at all and only buy put options. By the end of the day when you look at the balance of put and calls it can be very difficult to draw a conclussion.

As a fundamentalist I would say look at the fundamental values and make you investment decission accordingly. More TA oriented investors would say watch the chart. It is up to you but be carefull read to much into options.

Some questions and comments were left unanswered, it happens everyday, sorry for that.

There's some database connection problem with 3 Stocks and both, the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) are not updated with the closing quotes, I hope Ramsburg is already back from Peru (he was to arrive today), so he can solve this issue ASAP (nice welcoming present ;D)

Anyway, nice closes for ETLT.OB and TRMM.

I'll see you tomorrow :)

could u do an analysis on MR ?