3SOF

Good morning :)

Starting today we'll work under a different methodology here at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board. You have until 10:30 am ET to post all the requests for analysis you please and then I'll put a poll working from 10:30 to 11:00 so we can vote on the stocks to be analyzed.

The 10 stocks with more votes are the ones that I'll cover, starting from the most voted to 10th place stock.

This way we make sure that I'll write analysis on the most wanted stocks by the 3 SOF Community (and you don't have to wait all day for an analysis that maybe won't come, due to lack of time or me watching another one). You can choose stocks that were already covered (check the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0)) and you would like to read an update on the initial analysis or preferably new ones.

So, you have until 10:30 AM to post all the analysis wanted for today, thank you for your participation :)

Good morning David.

I'm sorry I didn't respond on Friday to your equally kind post, but I didn't
get home from work until after the market closed.

It took me a while to muster the courage to write the original post as none of us like to admit our mistakes, but your were so very supportive.

Here are the 3 stocks that have dropped since I bought. These were all purchased before I discovered your website and could read your posts and advice, and knew when to sell.

EXCS.OB - I read your post dated January 26 about their misleading press release, but only after the stock price sank.

AAGH - Again, good information on February 05, but too late for me.

WTVI - Foolishly bought when peaking.

I best keep my day job, eh?!  I know all of us have to begin learning from the beginning, and I have been studying and learning daily. I wisely did not invest a lot in these stocks, but when you're in to make some money, even a little hurts.

So my original question stands.  Do I bail, or at this point, hold and wait?

Thanks to you and all your members.

ARRS down 9.8% so far.  Comments?

Thanks.

Can u review INNO

GM David.  Could you check please IIIN and EXM. Thanks!!

David, I would like to request SGTL.

SGTL is a $135 million cap stock that is a potential longer term turnaround play.  I would love to see what you think of it, used to be quite profitable, losing money now, but may swing back to profitability in a couple of years.  Sales had grown 10 fold over over the past few years.  Dilution over the past couple of years is minimal.  Now selling for less than book value, the current ratio looks great, the long term stochastics are rising, and the macd is positive showing a negative divergence with the price.  All I need is your analysis to know if it is worth while!  Is this a potential gem or a piece of garbage that will keep going lower? ???

David

Will you hold ETLT thru March even if the catalyst to drive the share much much higher will be its 4Q and 2006 results. With EPS of 20 c for 2006 [plus] and prospective closer to 32 c a share its goin to fly but what will you do ....hold or revisit....results released in march and it could be any day soon in March...

views SVP
B rgs

LJ

Good day, A look at SFE please. Thanks

IEAM and WWAG  OB stocks.   Not on fire today but have had recent moves. 

Thanks for all your work David, learning a ton. 

Hi,David
How about COR?
ps:where can we find out today's obtcbb and pink sheets' share volume leaders and biggest price gainers or losers in premarckt and after open?

David,  you did a quick analysis on IGLD a few weeks back.  They reported great earnings today and the volume has more than doubled.  Would you consider reviewing it again more indepth?  Thank you!

How about BTJ?

Hmm, I was trying to put the poll on the message board but this isn't working right, let me call Ramsburg in a minute.

Good Morning David,

Not sure if you have the 10 stocks but would like to add ASTI. I am holding since Friday. Nice Volume from Friday and today.

Thank you

Ok, the poll is working right now with 15 stocks. We have until 11:15 am ET to vote on the 10 stocks to be covered today, each member has 3 votes.

QuoteI'm sorry I didn't respond on Friday to your equally kind post, but I didn't
get home from work until after the market closed.

No problem :)

QuoteIt took me a while to muster the courage to write the original post as none of us like to admit our mistakes, but your were so very supportive.

Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience ;)

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

I hope people vote on those stocks that you have, but at least the first two don't have a chance on the bull side for several months or even years in my opinion, unfortunately.

Keep up :)

CDY (Cardero Resource Corp.) is on fire - any rumors?

Quote

Ok Guloso, let's check out MFI   
The chart looks awesome, nice catch, for a Portuguese lol, I'm hurting myself.

Quote

Thanks for your nice words David. I am doing the home work. Probably it is a good stock for the Main Portfolio

Quote

•$0.28 EPS in 2006 puts the trailing earnings multiple at 20, which seems a bit high

Quote

I understand your point,  but the results are increasing in the last years.  In 2006 they had: EPS for Q4 was $0,13. (Q3  $0,06, Q2 $0,04; Q1  $0,05).  If the Q4 EPS wasn t irregular we could expect an EPS for 2007 at least  $0,52. If this is true we will have a PER around 10,7 which is cheaper 

Quote

Obrigado e aparece mais vezes

Quote

I will.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 10:52:56 AM
[
Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience ;)

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

Yep .. new traders need to write down the above & staple it to your forehead  ;D
I started learning to trade just over 4 years ago, before then I had never traded a stock in my life and knew nothing about the market.  I lost 30% or more of my (small) portfolio 3 times .. and thought I had learned my lessons.  Then last year when the May 'correction' occurred, I watched myself lose over 60% of my portfolio (which had finally started reaching a reasonable size for trading).  I say 'watched myself' because I still can't believe I allowed myself to do that .. to sit like a deer in headlights watching my account sink day by day...  
Did I finally learn?  I think so.  I hope so.  I can tell my 'ego' has now taken a back seat to the cold, calculating part of my brain  ;D
No more 'marrying' my stocks.  We do not even date.  
It's not personal (as Trump says) it's just business, and if I am wrong, I'm wrong.
I'd rather be wrong 10 times in a row & still have most of my account left to trade with!

So welcome to the club, colorado .. your dues have been paid & I hope you will not have to pay any more .. but if you do... that is normal & the only way you can truly lose is to quit trying ;)
You are very lucky that you found David so early in your trading career.  If I had found him my first year of trading, I would probably be typing this from the deck of my yacht  ;D ;D

The poll is closed, the 10 most voted stocks, in the following order, were:

1 - ETLT.OB
2 - IEAM.OB
3 - ASTI
4 - ARRS
5 - COR
6 - SGTL
7 - EXM
8 - WWAG.OB
9 - INNO
10 - BTJ

(in the case of a draw I pick the last stocks in a random way)

I'll spend the next 5 hours writing analysis on these stocks (Ramsburg is still working on solutions for the videos to come back). I'll also keep an eye on these and other stocks, as I have available capital to buy a new 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holding today.

In the meantime feel free to post about anything you want ...

Thanks :)

Thanks David.  I'll let go of at least the first two, and start fresh tomorrow.

Quote from: TraderStar on February 26, 2007, 11:21:23 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 10:52:56 AM
[
Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience ;)

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

I say 'watched myself' because I still can't believe I allowed myself to do that .. to sit like a deer in headlights watching my account sink day by day... 

LOL  ;D  You got that right!

Since we are land-locked, I won't join your dream of a yacht.  But I am putting 3 kids through college, so that'll have to do for right now.

TraderStar, thanks! You made my day!

The Importance of Measuring!!!  ::) ;D


http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/519/hustler-lesson-importance-of-measuring/

1. Introduction

I already wrote several analysis on ETLT.OB, as it is currently one of the two 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings. You can find links to those analysis on our Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0), under "E".

The stock hasn't been on fire since I bought it at $0.80, as it is digesting the previous bull run. But let me take a fresh new look at it.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33868;image)

As we can see on the medium term chart above, ETLT's trend is now bullish, as the stock broke out above the important $0.79 resistance level. Of course, it has been retesting that resistance area (now support) for some time now, but the trend, our best friend in the market, is on the bulls side.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33870;image)

Over the short term the stock seems to be going trough a perfectly natural correction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The chart tells me to expect a bull run towards ($0.97-$0.75)+$0.97 = $1.19 when the bull trend resumes.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $33.3 M. An agricultural genetics and bio-pharmaceutical company operating in China and focused on the development and application of advanced animal husbandry and pharmaceutical techniques to produce improved and novel food & pharmaceutical products (http://www.eternaltechs.com/)

3.2. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet is very strong, as they have $14.89 M in cash and $25.26 M as marketable securities (auditors raised some doubts on this). Total liabilities are only $3.16 M. The book value is $53.34 M, so the Price to Book Value is 0.62.

3.3. Revenues

Revenues were $0 in 2001, $12 M in 2002, $15 M in 2003, $16 M in 2004, $23 M in 2005 and about $29 M expected for 2006, so you can see there's revenue growth.

3.4. Earnings

The company has been profitable since 2002, and had EPS of 10 cents for the first 9 months of 2006, so I expect something between $0.12 and $0.15 EPS for the full year of 2006. This will put the trailing earnings multiple at about 6, which is too cheap.

4. General Overview

I see ETLT.OB as a profitable and growing company with an extremely strong balance sheet. I believe it should be trading at least 12 times earnings, not 6 times earnings. The chart says the market agrees with me, but it will take its time to reflect the attractiveness of the fundamentals.

I don't know for how long I'll keep holding ETLT.OB, but I need to be patient and let the stock work through this correction phase, because when the uptrend resumes it will be very fast.

5. Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 seconds registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Dave, whats your take on CPNE falling so much today. Do you see 2.35 as next support?

Quote from: mbaugh on February 26, 2007, 12:49:56 PM
Dave, whats your take on CPNE falling so much today. Do you see 2.35 as next support?

Probably the institutions that bought those 4.8 million shares at $1.90 are shorting some shares to hedge their bet. Hedge funds usually do this, they prefer a 10% profit for sure than a 100% profit with risk.

Fundamentally I see the current price as a buying opportunity, I don't see many people interested in selling below the $2.30 - $2.40 area.

Longer term you know I love the stock.

1. Introduction

I remember covering IEAM.OB about a year ago or so, and I remember I was positive on the stock. It seems something happened in December 2006 and there was a big sell off. We'll see about that in a minute.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33873;image)

I don't know what to think of this IEAM.OB chart. I guess it is technically neutral, as the stock is trading between the 50 days and the 200 days SMA. It suggests sideways action going forward.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33874;image)

Over the short term, IEAM.OB took almost 3 months to recover from that three days sell off. I'm very interested to know what happened back then, maybe I can learn something ;)

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

The market cap is $78 M. Industrial Enterprises of America, Inc., a holding company, engages in the marketing and distribution of automotive aftermarket chemicals and additives in the United States. Its distribution markets include retail, wholesale, value chains, and private labeling. The company also engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of automotive chemicals and additives, including engine oils, transmission oils, antifreezes, washer solvents, brake fluids, and gasoline additives. In addition, it manufactures and sells packaged refrigerants for the automotive and dusting markets; and manufactures liquid and aerosol products. The company is based in New York.

3.2. Share count evolution

I see a dilution problem. At the latest 10-Q out of the company says they had 4,532,831 weighted average shares outstanding in December 2005, 9,690,961 shares on average in December 2006 and 12.9 million now. This means heavy dilution >:(

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet looks OK.

3.4. Revenues

Revenues were $46 M in 2006. The price to sales ratio is 1.7.

3.5. Earnings

The company had a profitable quarter in Q3 2006, but returned to losses in Q4 2006. It lost $1.42 per share in 2006.

3.6. Recent News

Well, the news on December 4, 2006, the first day of that ugly sell off, were quite positive:

«John Mazzuto, Chief Executive Officer of Industrial Enterprises of America, commented, ``Our first quarter results, as previously announced, are in line with guidance provided by the Company. During this, our second quarter, we anticipate a significant increase in revenues as we continue to increase our production capacity with similar gross margins. Additionally, we are happy to welcome Mr. Impellicceiri to our management team. His experience in serving as a Controller for a large public corporation will assist us as we continue to grow and expand our operations.''»

So I can only attribute the sharp decline to heavy selling and dilution from the company.

4. General Overview

I can't remember what I saw one year ago, but IEAM.OB doesn't look in good shape now. The share count is always rising and the company posted disappointing results as it is still losing money. I remember it said it was just about to move to the Nasdaq back then, but I still see it as an OTCBB traded company.

5. Rating

Negative.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 seconds registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Thanks for the info David.

If I remember the sell off was because they delayed posting their results and then took a big hit to a previous quarter doing some type of upgrade to the factory.   According to the CC the recent losses were from called warrants. 

I missed the dilution factor, that is a big issue. 

I enjoyed the tip someone left about not falling in love with a stock.  That could be my problem here.  I guess I need to tell her I just want to be friends.   :-*

Thanks again, loving the board. 

1. Introduction

ASTI is the first truly on fire stock of the day, as it is moving up by 24% as I write. Cool 8)

2. Technical analysis
2.1. All history chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33875;image)

You can see on the chart that ASTI is a very recent IPO stock. It is trading at a new all time high now, so, definitely bullish.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

The market cap is $26.9 M. Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. commercializes copper-indium-gallium-diSelenide photovoltaic (PV) technology for the space and near-space markets. PV devices convert sunlight into the electricity needed to power instruments and communications systems. The company's target customers include traditional aerospace companies, companies in the defense and communications industries, and domestic and foreign government entities. Ascent Solar Technologies was founded in 2005 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.

3.2. Share count evolution

Well, the company is publicly traded just since August 2006, so there's not a lot of data about the share count. Many times companies dilute shareholder's value right after the IPO, so I'm not a fan of most IPO stocks.

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet shows plenty of cash and equivalents, since it was made right after the company's IPO.

3.4. Revenues

The company sold just $1,000 in Q3 2006.

3.5. Earnings

ASTI had net income of ($3.23 M) over the latest three quarters. Losses are growing as the company is still in the development stage.

3.6. Recent News

Probably the stock is moving today because of something the CEO said:

LITTLETON, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTI - News; BSX:AKC), a developer of state-of-the-art, thin-film photovoltaic materials and modules, today announced that its CEO, Matthew Foster, will present at the SRA Capital 3rd Annual Winter Technology Conference at 11:00 a.m. (PST) Monday, February 26, 2007. The conference is being held at the Omni Hotel, 500 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA.

4. General Overview

The stock doesn't have a message board on Yahoo and I can't find any webcast for that presentation. Anyway, I believe the company has limited potential (I don't like the sector) and since it still has no operations, I would pass this one here at almost $30 M market cap and zero sales.

It would be a shot in the dark, I don't have a clue what will happen next.

5. Rating

Neutral.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 01:23:18 PM
1. Introduction

I remember covering IEAM.OB about a year ago or so, and I remember I was positive on the stock. It seems something happened in December 2006 and there was a big sell off. We'll see about that in a minute.

IEAM was picked for our Portfolio in June @ $7.50, and later we sold it @ $8.45 in November just before that big sell off.... arrrg I don't keep good memories about holding this stock  ;)

David,
You'll see that the solar power stocks are fairly hot today...no pun intended.  Probably ASTI is helped by that action.

1. Introduction

ARRS is one of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) holdings so no doubt I see it as a very attractive stock. We own it at $13.28 since January 17, 2007.

The company launched a $1.2 B acquisition offer for Tandberg TV, a Swedish company. Today there are news out that Ericsson launched a rival $1.4 B bid.

ARRS is selling off today because people are afraid that it will raise its bid price and enter a war it can't win, since ERIC is a $55 B market cap company and ARRS is just $1.5 B. I don't think that will happen.

My initial entry was primarily justified by ARRS's internal numbers and business, I didn't consider Tandberg TV all that much at the time. Now it looks like ARRS will remain alone, so my initial analysis is still valid. I'll just copy/paste it to here and leave an updated chart in the end.

«1. Introduction

ARRS came to my attention on HLIT's thread. ARRS and HLIT are direct competitors, but ARRS seems to have much more attractive fundamentals.

So I'm planning to trade HLIT for ARRS, let's see if the following analysis confirms my thinking.

2. Profile

ARRIS Group, Inc. (ARRS) engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of telephony, data, video, construction, rebuild, and maintenance equipment for the broadband communications industry worldwide. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ARRS))

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31841;image)

The all history chart shows a stock getting ready to recover some of the shine it had in the past.

3.2. Medium Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31842;image)

The medium term trend is bullish, as shown by the ascending trendline on the chart. The stock is at a critical medium term point, fighting for the fifth time with the 2006 descending trendline. Will it breakout?

3.3. Short Term Chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31843;image)

I really enjoy this short term chart, with the positive reaction after the closing of that gap and volume picking up strongly to 7.8 million shares.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding + Market Cap

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31844;image)

The share count has gone up some over the last few quarters, and it will go up even more after the completion of the Tandberg Television acquisition, as you can read here:

• ARRIS Releases Details of $1.2B Acquisition of TANDBERG Television and Tuesday, January 16th, 8:30 AM EST Conference Call (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070115/clm050.html?.v=67)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jan 15)

The good news is the more ARRS rises, the less shares it will need to issue to fund part of the acquisition.

4.2. Long Term Debt + Current Ratio

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31845;image)

It looks like ARRS had a too much strong balance sheet, so it had to blow it all making a huge acquisition ::) But I like this acquisition, and of course they need growth. The balance sheet will change a lot, with $520 million of new debt.

4.3. Revenues + Gross Margin

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31847;image)

Revenues are now back to the 99/2000 levels, when the stock was trading at $50 a share.

The metrics I usually study show a bit worse picture for ARRS when compared to its industry average, but on a profit basis ...

4.4. EPS + Net Profit Margin

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=31848;image)

Look at the phenomenal turnaround in profits and especially net profit margin, which is at its highest ever, at 10.69%. My take is fundamentals are better now they have ever been.

4.6. Recent News

• ARRIS Releases Details of $1.2B Acquisition of TANDBERG Television and Tuesday, January 16th, 8:30 AM EST Conference Call (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070115/clm050.html?.v=67)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jan 15)

I have to study more about Tandberg, but at first sight, it looks like a great acquisition to me (not completely sure about the price paid, but I want to be in "digital TV solutions including IPTV, HDTV, video-on-demand, advertising on-demand, and interactive TV applications to customers in the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa.")

5. General Overview

I've been learning to go with the industry leader at most of the times. I used to go for the smaller competitor, because I thought this way the company had more upside potential, but as I learn more and more about long term growth perspectives and the huge world market size, I prefer to buy the industry leader (given that it isn't a mammoth like CSCO - for CSCO the size of the world market makes a difference).

I was in HLIT because of digital video and stuff like that, but ARRS seems better positioned to take advantage of future growth. Also, it looks fundamentally more attractive and the chart is also more promising in my opinion.

6. Trading Plan

Buy 6.66% of capital in ARRS.»

Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Quote from: garyaross on February 26, 2007, 02:01:06 PM
David,
You'll see that the solar power stocks are fairly hot today...no pun intended.  Probably ASTI is helped by that action.

So it is a sector play, thanks for the information garyaross :)

I generally don't like the alternative energy sector. The public loves it, and is paying a high price for stocks that in most cases don't have revenues and are losing big bucks every quarter. Sure, the future can and will probably be bright, but in the meantime, maybe for years to come, companies will need to dilute shareholder's value to keep operations going.

But I can be wrong, and some companies will be big winners, good luck :)

I already covered COR just last Thursday. Now I see it was just a general comment ... I can't value this company, but maybe rudynostalgia is around and will be kind enough to share with us why he holds the stock.

Here are the two links to those remarks made just 2 sessions ago:

David's COR analysis (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8993.msg89637#msg89637)

Rudynostalgia's comments on the stock (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8993.msg89639#msg89639)

As I see the stock now the strong bounce from a deeply oversold level is coming to an end and the chart says it will go back down to the $1 level. I hope I'm wrong, good luck :)

Rating

Negative.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Hi, David.

I agree with garyaross on solar stocks.

I don't know if i disagree with you -  :D - I don't know much about how to evaluate a company's finances. (That you allready know ;))

3SOF have a long time done well with DSTI, and it looks like it's running again.

For the ease of evaluating, i'll attatch some charts.

There IS money to be made!

The following link contains some good information about COR:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3252

It also has an intelligent discussion board, free of name calling and political insanity. The Yahoo discussion groups have become useless. Between the bashers, disgruntled employees and nut cases, one has to have degree in criminal psychology to pry any information from the comments.

Quote from: trexkerry on February 26, 2007, 09:51:21 AM
David, I would like to request SGTL.

SGTL is a $135 million cap stock that is a potential longer term turnaround play.  I would love to see what you think of it, used to be quite profitable, losing money now, but may swing back to profitability in a couple of years.  Sales had grown 10 fold over over the past few years.  Dilution over the past couple of years is minimal.  Now selling for less than book value, the current ratio looks great, the long term stochastics are rising, and the macd is positive showing a negative divergence with the price.  All I need is your analysis to know if it is worth while!  Is this a potential gem or a piece of garbage that will keep going lower? ???

Hi TrexKerry, I already covered SGTL on January the 22nd, here's my take on it back then:

«SGTL 3 minute look:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-209491521976380092&hl=en

SGTL is not on fire, despite being up 10% or so, because it is trading below the open. The chart is bearish and fundamentals show a worsening picture from 2005, but perhaps that is already discounted since the stock is down from about $45 in 2005 to the current $4.07 :P

I'm neutral on this stock but I wouldn't buy it right now. Good luck though :)»

Someone that read my analysis was kind enough to send me his own analysis by e-mail, let me see if I can find it (I hope he doesn't mind or doesn't see that I'm sharing this with you ;D):

«SigmaTel
Business Model:

SigmaTel's primary business is in the MP3 space in the form of SoC's (system on chip) to enable audio playback for MP3 manufacturers. It is a fables company, meaning the manufacturing of their chips are done through third parties. The company recently sold off its audio codec division in the PC space to IDT for $81.5 million, realizing a gain of $45 million. The company's core product is the multimedia SoC, representing 82% of revenue in the latest quarter. SigmaTel's largest customer in that space is Creative Technology with their suite of MP3 players. Additional offerings from SigmaTel include integrated circuits for digital video cameras and TVs, and an IC enabling FM tuners on MP3 players.

In September of '05 the company purchased Oasis Semiconductor. Oasis specialized in All-in-One chips used to create multifunction printers. It allows for the printer to be used as a fax, scanner, printer and copier.

In short this company is a lot like PortalPlayer, designing and marketing a SoC solution for the MP3 market. The SoC from PortalPlayer however, appears to be a superior chip with dual microprocessors as opposed to one from SigmaTel.

Like I mentioned over the phone, this industry is extremely competitive with plenty of players fighting over marketshare. Powerhouses like Broadcom and Samsung can come out with extremely low prices and squeeze their competitors into a corner. Pricing power for SigmaTel is non-existant which explains their decreasing margins.
Revenue from new businesses is becoming a bigger percentage of overall revenue but only because of decreased revenue from their flagship MP3 business.

Fundamentals

SigmaTel has a book value of almost $6.50 a share, and with a current price of $3.67 it trades at well under book. The company has current assets (minus inventory and prepaid expenses) of $3.71 a share, so that stock is pretty much trading at its current floor.

Sales have slowed to a grinding halt. From a peak of $324 million in '05 the company will be lucky enough to bring in half that amount for '06. Gross margins have decreased from 54% in '05 to 37% in the third quarter of '06. This is indicative of declining ASP's (average selling prices) and that lack of pricing power mentioned before. Inventory tells the bigger story here though. At the end of 2005 the company finished with $324 million in revenue and $23.5 million in inventory. In the third quarter of '06 the company had $45 million in revenue (some of which is non-recurring) and inventory measured in at $30 million. This says to me that their products are not selling. And remember inventory is measured at cost not at the sales price so if you add 37% to total inventory you get a sales amount of $41 million, almost half of total revenue. Not a good sign.

Even though the company currently has a solid balance sheet and is trading at less than book value, it doesn't mean that it is a good value buy. The burn rate is very important here, how much cash the company will burn through before it needs leverage or liquidation. It is very hard to pin an exact quarterly number for how much cash the company will burn, but for the first nine months of the year the company burned through $51 million. Assuming the company continues on its current course a burn rate of $60 million a year can be expected. That is a conservative estimate.
Regardless of the number, the company deserves to trade at a discount to book value (and even cash value) because it is cash flow negative and is facing weakening demand for its core product.
The one saving grace for any company like SigmaTel would be their IP. Regardless of a company's balance sheet or income statement, they may justify a higher price because of their IP. SigmaTel has been fighting cheap Chinese knockoff companies for a couple years now claiming they infringe on their patents for their SoC. Integration with Oasis is nonexistent (since no one is playing music on their printer) and their existent SoC is inferior to most other companies. It is hard to imagine any company going after SigmaTel based on their IP.

Management:

Ron Edgerton the chairman and CEO of SigmaTel recently resigned to "spend more time with his family". The CFO, Ross Goolsby , left about a month before him to take up another job. This may be a sign that the company is putting itself up for sale. Mr. Edgerton was the CEO that guided this company from a startup to a recognized company growing sales over a hundred fold in the process. The board of directors may take the opportunity and solicit for bids if they haven't already. The CEO of PortalPlayer announced he was stepping down at the end of the year, but before that took effect the company was sold. The situation here is pretty similar, with two key management positions vacated. Additionally the company sold off its PC codec business to IDT in an attempt to slim down its operations to its core business. This can be another indication that company is interested in selling itself, making it more attractive to potential suitors that are only interested in a specific business.

Overall:

•   The company is not undervalued at its current price.
•   Look for it to track its cash flow pretty closely. (may be some bumps in-between)
•   There is a  chance the company will be taken over, the premium will disappoint some investors
•   As a standalone company, it has no chance.»

I believe the man did a nice job on his analysis, and the chart agrees with him, so who am I to disagree?

Rating

Negative.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Hi David:
Every trading day around 15:15 p.m ,east time, Peter Reznicek reads some pages of the book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre. 

Anyone who is interested can listen to him at this link http://38.98.140.164:8000/ , good reading.  I think he will start chapter  V, pag 60. today.

thanks for all the great job yoy are doing.

I covered EXM late last week, here's what I said:

«EXM has an amazing chart! Very powerful bull trend going on. Let's make some fundamental tests:

• Market cap is $384 M. The Company is a provider of worldwide sea borne transportation services for dry bulk cargo including among others, iron ore, coal and grain, and steel products, fertilizers, cement, bauxite, sugar and scrap metal.
• Balance sheet shows they've been reducing long term debt, still at $195 M in Q3. Also $81 M in cash, not bad.
• Revenues are growing strongly, from $15 M in 2002 to about $119 M in 2006. Estimates for 2007 are for $135 M revenue.
• EPS in 05 was very high, at $3.64 (but the stock was declining throughout the year, this is interesting). EPS expected for 07 is $2.61, and that means a forward earnings multiple of 7.66, which looks attractive

Recent news have been fairly positive. I'm a bull on the shipping industry at this point and I feel EXM presents a great long term opportunity.

Thanks :)»

And since the stock is pulling back 10% today on no news I just bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). I like to buy a dip in a stock with a bullish chart and attractive fundamentals as EXM has.

Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

And since the stock is pulling back 10% today on no news I just bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. I like to buy a dip in a stock with a bullish chart and attractive fundamentals as EXM has.


Excel Maritime Carriers Cut To Hold From Buy At Cantor
Last update: 2/26/2007 7:18:48 AM

Quote from: chobi on February 26, 2007, 03:27:58 PM
And since the stock is pulling back 10% today on no news I just bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. I like to buy a dip in a stock with a bullish chart and attractive fundamentals as EXM has.


Excel Maritime Carriers Cut To Hold From Buy At Cantor
Last update: 2/26/2007 7:18:48 AM

Thanks for the information chobi, that's no news to me ;D

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 03:14:33 PM
And since the stock is pulling back 10% today on no news I just bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php). I like to buy a dip in a stock with a bullish chart and attractive fundamentals as EXM has.

Rating

Positive.

Nice catch David!! EXM pops up in my screener for low PE stocks during the weekend, but I never imagined that we could get at this price. It seems that the correction is mostly due to the news, but no problem with this!!   :D

I watched too  IIIN, but it didn't win the poll   :-\

1. Introduction

WWAG.OB is a dead penny stock, I don't know how it got 5 votes on our poll ;D

Anyway, let's see what we can do on it.

2. Technical analysis

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33883;image)

There's not much technical analysis we can do on a stock that is trading just $10,000 or so today.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $17.8 M. The Company has been engaged in the auctioning of transportation and industrial equipment since its incorporation. Its primary auctioned items include mobile and stationary earthmoving and construction equipment.

3.2. Share count evolution

I don't see dilution over the recent years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wwag&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr).

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

Balance sheet is weak (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wwag&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr), with negative working capital (but not by much).

3.4. Revenues

Revenue has been rising over the years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wwag&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann). It was $16.31 M in 2005 and maybe around $16 M for 2006, Q3 was especially weak (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wwag&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr).

3.5. Earnings

The company has been profitable since 2002, and reported EPS of $0.07 for 2005 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=wwag&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann). For the nine months already reported in 2006 it had EPS of 6 cents (//http://).

3.6. Recent News

• WWA Group Reports on Major Dubai Auction (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070215/20070215005320.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Thu, Feb 15)

• WWA Group Acquires Interest in Mining Concern (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070220/20070220005259.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Tue, Feb 20)

4. General Overview

It's a pity the stock almost has no volume, but the business is interesting and valuation looks attractive.

5. Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

Hi David, The other day you asked a couple of questions.
"What percentage of the company is still owned by its founders?
On Yahoo I get $0.4 as a 2007 EPS projection. I assume you expect more. What is your 2007 EPS projection, based on the margins and expansion plans you refer to?"

Here is my take:
JADE
Insider ownership:
From Roth Dec 06
CEO and founder owns   19%
Others own 7%

JADE has two primary, but related businesses. The wholesale US and Europe markets has a gross margin of 23-24% and will grow about 15%/yr. The China retail business which has a margin of 34% is growing in triple digits from a small base. When in doubt I have used conservative numbers.

This analysis is split into three areas: whole company; wholesale; retail. The full company is shown first but relies on data from the other two.
Full Company Revenues are a mix of the two business models.
05                                              FY = 94.6m
06FYE   105 (wholesale 86% of sales)+18m (retail 14% )   FY = 123m
07FYE   121 (wholesale 71%) + 49 (retail 29%)                   =170m
08FYE   139 Wholesale (59%) + 97 (retail 41%)                  =236m
(The company has indicated that for 08 retail sales should overtake wholesale sales which would suggest an additional 43m in sales.)

Full Company Gross Margin (%) is mix of gross margins from retail (34%) and wholesale  (24%) in the same proportion as sales  
05FY                       =23%  
06FYE=  (24% x 86% =  20.64)  +  (  36% x 14%  = 5)  = 25.6      
07FYE= (24%  x 71% = 17.8) +     (36% x 29% = 10.4) = 28.2  
08FYE= (24% x 59% =  14.6)  +   ( 36% x 41% =  14.8) = 29.4

Full Company Gross Profits  ( margin x revenue)
05    FY  =  22m  
06    FYE=  31.5m
07    FYE=   48m
08    FYE=   69m   

Full Company Earnings
05    FY  =   3.4m            
06    FYE=   6m  (76% growth)  Ratio of Gross profits/net profits =  5.25
07    FYE=   9.1m  (Assuming that the ratio above (5.25) holds constant.)
08    FYE=  13.25m

EPS
05EPS      FY =.24
06EPS E  FY =.34 (33%)  (19m shares outstanding)  
07EPS E  FY =  .44   (20.9m shares – assuming 10% dilution)
08EPS E  FY =   .58   (23m shares – assuming 10% dilution)
Visibility on future dilution is low, but the rate may decrease mid-term as cash flow is able to fund growth

PE A company with this kind of growth should be able to maintain a PE of 35
Implied Share price
06   11.9  Today's price is 11.01
07   15.4
08   20.3

Comments: This Company appears to be aggressive, successful and tends to minimize estimates so as to keep up a monthly flow of "good" news. Some of the assumptions I made are probably on the low side. For example same store sales growth will probably exceed the 15-20% I used.  The number of new stores may well exceed the 65 I used for 08 and maybe even the 58 estimated for 07. The wholesale business lessens overall risk to their retail growth strategy by providing a stable, profitable base , quality control of products, price stabilization, innovative designs and one of, if not the fastest large volume turnaround from design to market. Down side risk is relatively small, while the implied share price might actually be significantly higher.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wholesale
Revenue Growth
05        06  105m (85% of Business)  07E  121m  08  139m
Revenue Growth %
01- 05 25% compounded annually vs.   06 15%  07  15%  08 15%
Growth is likely to remain around 15% due to a larger base and an existing large US penetration.  The company has announced plans to enter the diamond business, which opens up an additional 51% of the market, but at slightly lower margins. This is NOT factored in here.

Margin is  Consistently 23-24%
Gross Profit  (Revenue x Gross Margins)
05        06  105m 07E  121m 08E  139m
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Retail
Growth in number of Stores  
04-05 18   06 42 07E 100    08E  165  
Revenue growth
05        06  18m (15% of Business)  07E  49m   08  97m
For 07E we use (06 rev)18m x (store growth)100/42  x (Sales growth per store) 15%  = 49m  (26% of company sales)
For 08 we use 49m  x  165/100  x  20%  =   97m  (41% of company sales)
(This number is significantly higher than current company estimates of 40m. However they have a history of under estimating and over reporting and are planning an estimate update in the next few weeks. As more stores have time to ramp up we can expect average per-store sales to increase. Since brand new stores start from a zero base, this number (20%)  may prove to be very conservative, but visibility on the timing of that growth is low.)  
Margin  54%  less  20%  store rental = 34% (I include that here because  the store rentals are a fixed % of revenue and are the single greatest drag on revenue.  This number is projected to go down over time as ENZO is able to exert leverage.)  

1. Introduction

It looks like I'll need to work after hours today, still INNO and BTJ to go :)

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33885;image)

Brrr, this long term chart isn't pretty (and the all history chart since 1991 is even worse) and it suggests dilution over the years. We'll just see about that.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33886;image)

The short term looks better, the question is: «will the stock resume its bull trend and make new highs above $1.45 after the 50% correction, or the trend has reversed and it is bearish now?»

Let's see if fundamental analysis helps.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $45.3 M. Principal business activity has evolved into the design, development and worldwide marketing of apparel products. Products consist of branded and private label denim and denim related products.

3.2. Share count evolution

Did I say "dilution"? Oh yeah, look at the Basic Weighted Average Shares line on an annual (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=inno&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) and quarterly basis (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=inno&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr).

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=inno&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) is weak, with just $0.39 M in cash and a current ratio of just 1.26.

3.4. Revenues

Revenues rose 30% in 2006 from 2005 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=inno&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann), but they're still way below 2003 levels.

3.5. Earnings

The company has been losing serious money since 2003. It had a smaller loss in Q4 2006, hence the rally, but dilution will kill any attempt of a bull run.

4. General Overview

Management is not working for the shareholder's benefit, as it keeps diluting their value. The balance sheet is too weak and the company has been losing too much money over the years.

5. Rating

Negative.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

on COR, I think the presentation on Roth conference is the key. they said they showed good data to reversed the restrictions from FDA, which is the reason the stock dropped from 5 to 3 to 1. so it is natural to think it will go back up to 3 or higher.

on JADE, I think the dilution rate is 25% a year. here is the share count history of past 5 years, with most recent first

18.36,14.32, 12.11, 9.71, 8.49


Also, David hit on the nail, why doesn't JADE file 10Q/Ks ? lazy? NO. they have something to hide.

1. Introduction

BTJ is a small cap trading at new all time highs, I like that :)

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33892;image)

On this all history chart you can see BTJ has been quite bullish since 2005 and just closed at an all time high today.

2.2. Short term chart

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=33891;image)

Today's gap was a breakaway gap with volume above average. Usually this type of gaps don't get filled over the short term. Technically the stock couldn't be more bullish.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $144 M. The Company develops, manufactures and sells marine seismic energy sources and underwater electrical connectors and cables and in industrial products, develops, manufactures and sells miniature industrial clutches.

3.2. Share count evolution

No significant dilution over the years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=btj&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), and this is part of the reason why BTJ closed at an all time high today.

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

Current ratio is 4, the balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=btj&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) is strong.

3.4. Revenues

Revenues (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=btj&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr) are growing a lot, even on a quarterly basis. They just rose 22.7% in Q4 from Q3 2006 (calendar), to $12.27 M.

3.5. Earnings

There's exceptional EPS growth over the last five quarters (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=btj&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr). It was $0.42 in fiscal Q2 2007 (calendar 4th quarter 2006). There are no estimates for the company on Yahoo, but if they carry this momentum throughout 2007 I see no less than $2 EPS.

3.6. Recent News

• Explorers Hunt For Undersea Oil Using Powerful Air Guns' Sounds (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/070223/newamer.html?.v=1)
Investor's Business Daily (Fri, Feb 23)

4. General Overview

Awesome stock, I love it !

5. Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.msg87075#msg87075). This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8739.0). To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process. (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=register)

News on CPNEGOLETA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Commerce Planet, Inc., an online media company, and its wholly owned subsidiaries expect to report $8.6 million in profit for fiscal 2006. The 2006 profit represents a complete turn around from fiscal 2005's net loss of ($6.3) million. Commerce Planet expects to report 2006 consolidated revenue of $27.4 million and combined revenue including inter-segment transactions of $34.7 million, which represents year-over-year growth of 275% versus 2005 consolidated revenues of $7.3 million. Earnings for the year ending December 31, 2006 are expected to be $0.18 per weighted average share versus ($0.17) per weighted average share for fiscal 2005. These expectations are based on preliminary financial data and are subject to the final closing of the Company's books and records for the fiscal year.

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) closed down 1.24% on the day, as it continues to consolidate recent gains. I've been expecting ETLT.OB and PFSW to shot up but it's taking a bit longer than I expected.

Anyway, tomorrow is another day, thanks for your participation :)