From a technical point of view only there's not much more you can ask from a chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1204;image)
Here's why:
1) The medium/long term trend is bullish, so I may conclude fundamentals are sound. This is different from a stock building a base at a low point and getting a big white candle - that's a more explosive, but more riskier play. When I say fundamentals are sound I say it because market participants are perceiving them that way and I don't have enough knowledge to go against market participants (and generally that's not a good way to trade, against the trend).
2) Yesterday we had a breakout from what was a 6 month consolidation phase.
3) Volume has been increasing day by day, so the advance is pretty solid.
I don't want to know what the company does, so I won't even look at the profile. My motive to buy is solely the chart so I'll just have to keep track of the chart for it to tell me when to sell.
Buying UPCS at the open.
Everyday I will analyze UPCS after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
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Have u bought it or waiting for some level/time?
ok, got it in 3SF portfolio.
UPCS continues with it's perfect rise. The stock opened gap up only to correct intraday to the gap closing level (the high of the previous day was $7.89) and then claw back in the end of the session, to finish 3% higher.
I'm excited about the volume too, growing everyday. I still don't know what this company is or does, and I don't want to know. Technical analysis is a respectable strategy and I will exclusively follow it with this stock.
Well UPCS made a "perfectly normal pullback" to the prior resistance line, now support. Just hoping this isn't another false break out, I've had enough of that ... wouldn't like to see the stock close below $7.65.
You gotta love the candle recovery today! Is that a piercing line?
yes ,and don t forget 25% of the float is short as of june >:D >:Dih this stock continue its climb on monday expect a push from shorts covering ...................
Yes eliteG, I really enjoyed the candle on UPCS. But I believe it is an «hammer», not a «piercing line».
UPCS closed at $8 in the after hours. We've had this news: UbiquiTel Inc. to Present at 15th Annual Wachovia Securities Nantucket Equity Conference (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/archivedArticle.asp?archive=thirdtrue&dist=ArchiveSplash&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9A10E8AB%2DE328%2D4AFB%2DAF0F%2D6723D90090FC%7D&returnURL=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2FnewsArticle%2Easp%3Fguid%3D%7B9A10E8AB%2DE328%2D4AFB%2DAF0F%2D6723D90090FC%7D%26siteid%3Dmktw%26archive%3Dthirdtrue)
When the stock broke the resistance line at $7.75 it got a bit overbought. Now it has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and it seems ready to resume the uptrend on the coming week.
There's no new technical or fundamental information from UPCS. Consolidating above resistance, now support at $7.75.
UPCS did what it was supposed to do, given the technicals, which is to rise ! The breakout had its pullback, the support hold, so there's no motive to wait any longer. UPCS should runaway from the $8 level in the next few days.
Cool white candle today on UPCS. The breakout has a technical target of $9.38, which is still 13% above today's close. We have a strong support, prior resistance at the $7.75 level.
So the trading plan is quite simple: hold to sell at the technical target of $9.38 as long as the stock keeps closing above support.
QuoteThe breakout has a technical target of $9.38, which is still 13% above today's close.
David,
Would you please explain how you arrived at a target of $9.38 for us TA newbies?
Thanks!
UPCS had a rectangular pattern. You see the high of the pattern was $7.75, the low was $6.12.
The breakout technical target is given by $7.75 - $6.12 = $1.63.
$7.75+$1.63 = $9.38
(this is just a technical indication, the stock may rise beyond the technical target or never reach it - but, since I'm trading the breakout, it's interesting to be aware of the technical target of the breakout)
Visually:
The market went down heavy, UPCS went down a little. Nothing to be worried about, the uptrend is in place.
UPCS is slowly climbing the ladder. The technical price target is $9.38.
White candle on UPCS, although it closed slightly down. Volume suggests the stock will continue to rebound from this consolidation phase and, trend being a good friend of mine, the stock will continue to advance.
If the last candle was made with above average volume this would be a pretty bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Without the volume the candle loses relevancy and it is just another day.
It is taking some time for UPCS to take of from this consolidation phase after the breakout of the $7.75 resistance. As long as the stock manages a close above $7.75 (now support), one can only hope the technical target of the breakout will be reached, around $9.38.
UPCS is still technically perfect, unfortunately even these kind of stocks don't go up in a straight line. Volume was a bit higher on this second white candle so I expect continuation for today. If the stock makes a new closing high above $8.34 (it closed Friday at $8.25) we have a pretty safe technical setup for a ride to the $9.38 level, which is the technical target of the breakout.
Did David sell UPCS?
Yes I did, when I saw the stock up so much little after the open I put a sell order at my $9.38 target. I'm talking about this technical target for so many days I lost count.
Bought by the chart, sold by the chart.
Nice 17% profit ;)
(the fact that the stock reached the technical target of the breakout doesn't mean it won't continue trending up, but for a trader who's plan was to trade the technical breakout I had to sell when that pattern was completed)
The Sprint news came (Sprint to Buy US Unwired) and UPCS shot up higher. I had my simple trading plan in place, based solely on a chart pattern and breakout, so inevitably I had to follow the plan and sell UPCS at $9.38, the technical target of the breakout made on the 21th of June.
Plan the trade, trade the plan.
An handsome 17% profit. Of course the stock will probably continue to rise over the medium term (the trend is clearly bullish), but a speculator can't own all bullish stocks.