Good morning :)
Today I'm going to buy FMCN put options around the open (actually not me, I delegate to Ramsburg the execution part, he'll then put on the Trades thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8769.0) and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) page which puts he bought).
Advertising is the first thing to go down when the economy softens. FMCN lives from advertising in China and is trading at 17 times sales and 46 times earnings.
Since I bought just 8.7% of capital in those GOOG puts on Friday, I still have about 24% free cash to invest.
Today we'll talk about everything you please, from stocks (long and short) to options, to macroeconomics, whatever.
Thank you for your participation, have a nice day :)
The market opens with a gap down, people that think "great, cheap prices" buy, the market closes the opening gap and then goes down again, as the trend continues.
Typical bear market behavior. Seen one, seen all.
Good morning :)
Good Morning!
Why are you buying the put option for FMCN so close to expiration (MAR07)? You are expecting a short, fast move? The way I learned was to always buy 2-3 months out to decrease risk of time decay.
But I am here to learn new things ... so what is the strategy behind the same month purchase?
Thanks :)
I expect FRPT to break the $15.45 support on the downside, as the stock is extremely overvalued.
Hey David,
How bout AVB short.
I see it could go down to 125, 120 or even lower.
Wht do you think?
Keep it up buddy!
Quote from: TraderStar on March 05, 2007, 10:08:12 AM
Good Morning!
Why are you buying the put option for FMCN so close to expiration (MAR07)? You are expecting a short, fast move? The way I learned was to always buy 2-3 months out to decrease risk of time decay.
But I am here to learn new things ... so what is the strategy behind the same month purchase?
Thanks :)
Good question TraderStar. I don't know why Ramsburg picked those puts, I would like to have more time. I'll let him answer that when he gets back home, I think he was out to lunch.
David,
Would you put new money into GOPOL at this time.
What up Dave, what's your downside target for FRPT? 8)
Quote from: eggman11 on March 05, 2007, 10:16:43 AM
David,
Would you put new money into GOPOL at this time.
Absolutely. As I see it, GOOG is making a classic throwback to the broken support line, now resistance. I see it going down by the end of the session.
But put just pocket money into it. High reward/high risk here.
Quote from: ultraman on March 05, 2007, 10:13:15 AM
Hey David,
How bout AVB short.
I see it could go down to 125, 120 or even lower.
What do you think?
Keep it up buddy!
Hi ultraman :)
AVB is almost at your target already, great :) But you should consider trading for larger moves, as the money is in the big swing, not in short term fluctuations.
Technically the stock broke down below the 50 days SMA, and is now approaching the 200 days SMA at $123.68 which can provide support and a technical bounce, at least.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $10.4 B. A real estate investment trust, or REIT, for federal income tax purposes. Engage in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership and operation of multifamily communities in high barrier-to-entry markets of the United States.
- Book value is $2.6 B, so about 1/4 of the market cap.
- Revenue in 2006 was $758 M, so the price to sales ratio is roughly 14, which is high
- EPS in 2006 was $3.57, so the earnings multiple is 36
I agree with you, AVB is way overvalued and this valuation doesn't make any sense to me because the real estate market will be dormant to down over the next couple of years.
But I would hold for a larger move, not paying attention to short term developments. If your hand is weak, you'll make many trades and miss the majority of the move.
Good luck :)
Quote from: pompano on March 05, 2007, 10:23:36 AM
What up Dave, what's your downside target for FRPT? 8)
My plan is to buy to cover FRPT around the 200 days moving average, currently standing at $10.16.
If $oil goes down as I think it will (due to a worldwide, but especially Chinese economic recession in late 2007, early 2008), alternative energy will go down even more than oil related companies, because these trade at cheap valuations, where as alternative energy companies are trading at lofty multiples, unfortunately.
I say unfortunately because we all want the World to be more environmentally friendly, but the free market economy doesn't solve all problems of the World.
David, are you still taking a wait a see on gold, what's your current specualtion on that sector? Thanks
I'm glad I sold XING at $19 plus, due to the existence of preferred shares, but I'm sad because I know some friends are still holding.
I didn't expect it to tank so hard. I guess it is a good example on how a cheap stock just gets cheaper in a bear market :(
Quote from: pompano on March 05, 2007, 10:58:34 AM
David, are you still taking a wait a see on gold, what's your current specualtion on that sector? Thanks
Those "wait and see" words perfectly reflect my take on Gold and Silver at this moment. They continue to trade as commodities, and I don't want to buy commodities in the face of what I expect to be a global economic slowdown.
What I would like to buy is alternative financial assets. Alternative to stocks, bonds and currencies. When Gold starts trading like that I'll buy it.
So, not to sound like an idiot, I assume that if you haven't already bought. FRPT is still a good short play, David?
David, can you please look into gra and hmin for shorting?
Dave I know you like to keep adding to a position as it goes up to hit your target but would you do the same thing on shorting. For example your target on FRPT is the 200 day moving average so would you keep adding to your short position as it goes down?
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up 0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?! ??? ::)
Quote from: johnr733 on March 05, 2007, 11:08:03 AM
So, not to sound like an idiot, I assume that if you haven't already bought. FRPT is still a good short play, David?
Yes, I believe it is johnr733. I'm short at $15.95, so around the current price.
FRPT is a $1.1 B market cap company with a forward earnings multiple of 27. The problem is I don't think the company will meet analysts EPS expectations for 2007, not because it will sell less or the US will retreat from Irak (even though I believe an economic slowdown in the US will increase pressure for that outcome), but because it keeps diluting shareholder's value, as you can see on this 10 year summary (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=frpt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr) and quarterly balance sheet data (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=frpt&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr), under the line "Total Common Shares Outstanding".
APAC...trying to figure why this one is going strong during this downturn. they are in customer service. Maybe with all the bad debt out there. Credit card companies are hiring their services with billing issues???
Is anyone else having problems short FRPT? I got a message from two different brokerage saying they can't procees the order because they are unable to borrow shares.
David,
Do you have and alternative pick, like one from the main prtofolio to substitute for FRPT?
Thanks
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 11:21:16 AM
Dave I know you like to keep adding to a position as it goes up to hit your target but would you do the same thing on shorting. For example your target on FRPT is the 200 day moving average so would you keep adding to your short position as it goes down?
You still don't know my strategy very well prodigykid6, as you haven't been around the block long enough :)
I never average up or down, due to money management risk control rules. I never add to a position once I opened it. Of course, I may entry a position with two or three orders (but I still don't need that, the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)'s size still isn't big enough to justify that).
If the position goes against me, I start thinking that I might be wrong, I don't get more confident as I'm losing, but less confident. If I'm winning, that's good, but I don't pyramid the position by adding more, that would increase risk by a lot.
I usually invest a fixed portion of capital in each position as I open it (6.66% of capital for the Main, 33.33% of capital for the Fire - unless I'm buying options, in that case I reduce the size to about 10% of the Fire's capital). If the position size rises due to its own merit, I won't cut it off either. That's my way of increasing exposure to a winning trade. But to add more to a winning position ... no, I don't do that, that's too risky, as it violates diversification and money management rules.
Thanks, I love strategic questions :)
Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up 0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?! ??? ::)
look at CSCO it's green :)
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 10:54:06 AM
If $oil goes down as I think it will (due to a worldwide, but especially Chinese economic recession in late 2007, early 2008), alternative energy will go down even more than oil related companies, because these trade at cheap valuations, where as alternative energy companies are trading at lofty multiples, unfortunately.
I say unfortunately because we all want the World to be more environmentally friendly, but the free market economy doesn't solve all problems of the World.
Dave would shorting Chinese solar companies be good such as HOKU and FSLR?
Quote from: eggman11 on March 05, 2007, 11:39:20 AM
Is anyone else having problems short FRPT? I got a message from two different brokerage saying they can't procees the order because they are unable to borrow shares.
David,
Do you have and alternative pick, like one from the main prtofolio to substitute for FRPT?
Thanks
I really enjoy FMCN on the short side. If you're not short already I would certainly sell it short now, as the stock is clawing back up to make a thrusting candlestick pattern, which is a bearish continuation pattern.
I've experienced several economic slowdowns and recessions on my skin. I know how companies that sell advertising space suffer the most and the earliest. Selling advertising space is that sector that has fat margins and gives a lot of money to earn when the economy is hot, but when it cools down, it is a money drain.
Unless I'm wrong on an economic slowdown in China (I don't think I am, especially on the investment side of the economy), FMCN trading at 46 times earnings will surely tank.
Good luck :)
Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up 0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?! ??? ::)
My take is mega caps are pushed up to sell futures and buy puts on the general market. You need to get used to a lot of rallies, especially over the intraday. It will seem as the market is always moving up ;D
The market will be "moving up now", "turning the corner to the green", "the bottom is in", "time for a rebound" all the way down!
At least, over the previous two bear markets that I've traded through, that was what happened. People only realized the market was really free falling after a 15 to 20% move down. Then they thought "now it is too late to sell, I'll hold for the long term" ... but the market kept going down until they couldn't take it anymore and sold at whatever price they could, they just wanted to get out and stop the pain. That is called the capitulation process. The quicker the market goes down that path, the sooner it will be bullish again.
Hey Dave, 8) lots of questions and emerging opportunities to make money on the short side. How about EWM?
Quote from: Garoh on March 05, 2007, 11:41:29 AM
Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up 0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?! ??? ::)
look at CSCO it's green :)
ACY and KRSL in green too ;-)
David,
Any thoughts on shorting Goldman? (GS)
Risk appetitie (& revenues) will go down, and thats how they differentiate to other brokerage houses..
Appreciate your feedback.
Nick
Quote from: njshiva on March 05, 2007, 11:15:28 AM
David, can you please look into gra and hmin for shorting?
Sure, why not.
GRA has touched the 50 days SMA today and is rebounding some on the intraday. The 200 days SMA stands just at $14.93, that is, 35% below the current price.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $1.6 B. Engaged in specialty chemicals and materials businesses on a worldwide basis through two operating segments: Grace Davison which includes silica and alumina-based catalysts and materials and Grace Performance Chemicals which includes specialty chemicals
- No historical dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gra&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr)
- Balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gra&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) is strong with $536 M in cash
- Revenues (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gra&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) are growing nicely over the years, and the sales multiple is 0.57
- EPS in 2006 was $0.9, so the earnings multiple is 26
Yes, I would say it is expensive and could have a correction to the 200 days moving average, but fundamental trends are positive, I wouldn't mind all that much buying this stock after a further correction, so probably not the best short outthere in my opinion.
hey david i think AVT and MA would be good shorts...what do you think..Thanks
ket
QuoteDave would shorting Chinese solar companies be good such as HOKU and FSLR?
HOKU no because they have that big contract with Sanyo that by itself justifies the current market cap. If the company doesn't dilute shareholder's value (which didn't do over the last 5 quarters (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=hoku&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr)), I see the stock sustaining the current share price or even rising.
FSLR, let me see ... hmm, this is a recent IPO stock, and usually I dislike those stocks, so probably a nice short. Technically there's that big gap up that could be closed at $34.74.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $3.19 B. First Solar, Inc. engages in the design and manufacture of solar modules through its proprietary thin film semiconductor technology. The solar module employs a thin layer of cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. The company sells its products to solar project developers and system integrators in Germany. First Solar is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
- There's dilution
- Balance sheet is OK
- There's strong revenue growth, but the sales multiple is 24
- EPS in 2006 was 7 cents, so the earnings multiple is 639.
Yes, no doubt FSLR looks like a great short, despite the great technology I'm sure it has. Valuation is stretched to the moon.
LEND looks like a good short. All the way to $6?
Hi David,
Hope you are fine. Sorry for Sporting!! :P
HMIN is similar to HOKU. Please take a look.
I'm interested in HMIN as well, not sure if it is wise to bet against it...
Hi David, could you take a look to NEW. Down today with big volume
Quote from: njshiva on March 05, 2007, 11:15:28 AM
David, can you please look into gra and hmin for shorting?
Now HMIN. It is a recent IPO stock, so probably a nice short, as those companies usually dilute shareholder's value right after the IPO, as they need more financing. The chart indeed looks bearish.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $578 M. Home Inns & Hotels Management, Inc. engages in the development, lease, operation, franchise, and management of economy hotels under the Home Inn brand in the People's Republic of China. (complete profile here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=hmin))
- Dilution in Q3 over Q2 2006 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=hmin&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr), as expected.
- Balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=hmin&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) looks weak, working capital is negative.
- I expect revenues of about $83 M in 2006, so the sales multiple is 7
- EPS in 2006 is expected to come in at $0.19 or so, which puts the trailing earnings multiple at 180 :o
What do you mean? This is one hell of a sure thing for the short side, if you ask me >:D
Thanks ;)
HMIN will report earnings on Wednesday .. my Chinese contact tells me they are expected to be good .. so maybe better to wait and short into a bounce if there is one. I will probably not play this one at all .. but will definitely be watching it because I am curious as to what happens next seeing that the Chinese & Portuguese disagree on its prognosis ;D ;D
Quote from: TraderStar on March 05, 2007, 01:41:29 PM
HMIN will report earnings on Wednesday .. my Chinese contact tells me they are expected to be good .. so maybe better to wait and short into a bounce if there is one. I will probably not play this one at all .. but will definitely be watching it because I am curious as to what happens next seeing that the Chinese & Portuguese disagree on its prognosis ;D ;D
They'd better be really good, to sustain a 180 earnings multiple :)
I'm tired, going for a walk, I'll be back later, good luck on your trades :)
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 01:44:50 PM
Quote from: TraderStar on March 05, 2007, 01:41:29 PM
HMIN will report earnings on Wednesday .. my Chinese contact tells me they are expected to be good .. so maybe better to wait and short into a bounce if there is one. I will probably not play this one at all .. but will definitely be watching it because I am curious as to what happens next seeing that the Chinese & Portuguese disagree on its prognosis ;D ;D
They'd better be really good, to sustain a 180 earnings multiple :)
I'm tired, going for a walk, I'll be back later, good luck on your trades :)
Thanks for the analysis David.
Sad that I cannot short majority of the stocks from etrade. I tried hmin, frpt etc. no luck. >:(
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 10:54:06 AM
If $oil goes down as I think it will (due to a worldwide, but especially Chinese economic recession in late 2007, early 2008), alternative energy will go down even more than oil related companies, because these trade at cheap valuations, where as alternative energy companies are trading at lofty multiples, unfortunately.
I say unfortunately because we all want the World to be more environmentally friendly, but the free market economy doesn't solve all problems of the World.
David, how would you define recession for China? If they were growing at 10% till recently, what percentage growth would qualify as recession for them? I also think I heard on Bloomberg that India had been growing at something crazy like 35% recently. If it goes into recession, does that mean they are still growing at 10% for example?
Quote from: njshiva on March 05, 2007, 01:53:36 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 01:44:50 PM
Quote from: TraderStar on March 05, 2007, 01:41:29 PM
HMIN will report earnings on Wednesday .. my Chinese contact tells me they are expected to be good .. so maybe better to wait and short into a bounce if there is one. I will probably not play this one at all .. but will definitely be watching it because I am curious as to what happens next seeing that the Chinese & Portuguese disagree on its prognosis ;D ;D
They'd better be really good, to sustain a 180 earnings multiple :)
I'm tired, going for a walk, I'll be back later, good luck on your trades :)
Thanks for the analysis David.
Sad that I cannot short majority of the stocks from etrade. I tried hmin, frpt etc. no luck. >:(
Maybe time for a new broker... Scottrade you can short alot more selection of stocks it seems. Also Interactive Brokers I hear is really good.
Hi David,
I hope that your walk left you refreshed and rejuvenated. What are your thoughts on the GOOG short? Do you still think that GOOG is one of our best options as far as shorting goes - especially in light of the fact that the stock is getting support at the 200 DMA, and because the earnings have come in above analysts expectations for the past 4 quarters, and estimates for 2007 seem reasonable.....
Just wondering if there isn't some better stocks to try and short..... or if we should just sit tight, and you are still confident that GOOG will break its long term trendline.
Thank You for all of your good advice David - and get some rest!!
Bourbon ;D
Quote from: tokyopua on March 05, 2007, 02:13:13 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 10:54:06 AM
If $oil goes down as I think it will (due to a worldwide, but especially Chinese economic recession in late 2007, early 2008), alternative energy will go down even more than oil related companies, because these trade at cheap valuations, where as alternative energy companies are trading at lofty multiples, unfortunately.
I say unfortunately because we all want the World to be more environmentally friendly, but the free market economy doesn't solve all problems of the World.
David, how would you define recession for China? If they were growing at 10% till recently, what percentage growth would qualify as recession for them? I also think I heard on Bloomberg that India had been growing at something crazy like 35% recently. If it goes into recession, does that mean they are still growing at 10% for example?
Basically what David was saying is the Chinese economy is dependent on a strong U.S. consumer to maintain their extremely high growth. China is growing so fast and making so many new factories and products that it is basically making over capacity for the demand in the future... This is kind of like how the Homebuilders started to overbuild when the Real Estate market was booming... We saw how that has turned out the boom turned to bust for the Real Estate market (Due to lowered demand for housing and everyone who was going to buy a house has already taken out a home loan.)
Now just imagine the same situation with China... The Chinese economy is lets say the booming real estate market and represents the housing prices, home builders, and everything associated with the supply side of it.
The U.S. consumer is the demand side of the equation. Same as in the housing boom the U.S. consumer was on a consumer spending boom with buying power brought on by eased lending (credit cards, housing atm effect, etc... Debt is a horrible way to increase buying power because it is unsubstainable and will lead to a reserval when the time comes to pay up.) in the U.S. and a artificially weak Chinese currency which made Chinese goods nice and cheap.
Looking at how fast the Chinese economy has gone its like a runaway speed train. You slam the breaks it will turn into a bloodbath and derail... The Chinese are use to the same amount of U.S. consumer consumption of their goods... Any pullback will cause major effects since they are all ready ramped up and even over capacity as it is. Look how fast the Real Estate market in the U.S. turned from incredible boom to the path of a huge burst in just a years time.
nice chart...but low volume so far...
QuoteDavid, how would you define recession for China? If they were growing at 10% till recently, what percentage growth would qualify as recession for them? I also think I heard on Bloomberg that India had been growing at something crazy like 35% recently. If it goes into recession, does that mean they are still growing at 10% for example?
The definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP change.
For example, China's GDP is estimated at $10 T in 2006 (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html) (Jesus, I'm amazed to see it is almost surpassing the US), so about $2.5 T a quarter. If for example Q3 2007 GDP is $2.45 T and Q4 2007 GDP is $2.3 T, you have a full blown economic recession.
Usually the statistical data showing there was a recession is only known after the recession has come and gone.
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Exports - Imports
China is in a very bad position right now. They did it upon themselves though, the Communist government in China loves to manipulate their markets and currency a lot more then the U.S. and the rest of the world. Because of the artificially low currency to spur more exports to the U.S. they essentially have taken the path of no return. If indeed the U.S. heads into recession China is going to have some huge problems for their economy (since a huge majority of all exports goto the U.S.) The problem with China is they are not self substainable on the the consumption side on the amount of production they are doing. The Chinese are not good consumers they save an incredibly high amount of money. I forsee a major economic crsis in China caused by drastically lowered demand in the U.S., and the rest of the world.
Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 05, 2007, 02:20:47 PM
Hi David,
I hope that your walk left you refreshed and rejuvenated. What are your thoughts on the GOOG short? Do you still think that GOOG is one of our best options as far as shorting goes - especially in light of the fact that the stock is getting support at the 200 DMA, and because the earnings have come in above analysts expectations for the past 4 quarters, and estimates for 2007 seem reasonable.....
Just wondering if there isn't some better stocks to try and short..... or if we should just sit tight, and you are still confident that GOOG will break its long term trendline.
Thank You for all of your good advice David - and get some rest!!
Bourbon ;D
Well, I believe I know GOOG quite well and have some "inside information" on how it is doing (as you've read on the Premium area (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/_advantages.php)). I believe the company will disappoint investors in 2007, as the economic slowdown will make its revenues if not shrink, at least not grow by much.
Now, as for today, I was expecting it to be weaker. I have some worries that despite being right on holding GOOG shares short on the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), I may lose on the Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) due to options being a very short term game.
I worry a bit, but that's not my expectation. GOOG closed below its long term ascending trendline, and today just seems to be a throwback to that broken support (now resistance), which in fact reinforces the bearish technical analysis.
Let's see how it plays out during the rest of the week ... I still expect it to tank $50 over the next couple of weeks :)
Do you see FMCN going down to its 200 day. I see a gap at 59 from November that i feel it may reach if the downward pressure continues. Whats your opinion?
hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?
Quote from: mbaugh on March 05, 2007, 02:54:40 PM
Do you see FMCN going down to its 200 day. I see a gap at 59 from November that i feel it may reach if the downward pressure continues. Whats your opinion?
I think it will go a lot lower than that, but I would also like to see it fall to close that gap over the next couple of weeks, at $62.39.
I dislike thinking too much about the short term, and next time I'll buy options with a longer term to maturity. Anyway, even on a short term technical/candlestick analysis, the stock looks due to continue the short term bearish trend.
$VIX is showing some strength again on the intraday. Maybe another bear raid on the market is in the works the last hour of trading.
Just broke some intraday support on the DOW. Now looking good going into close >:D. $Vix is shooting up some more last 30 mins of today should be pretty interesting.
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 03:02:21 PM
hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?
How do you know that? ;D
I think you're somewhat confused prodigykid6, don't tell me you've been smoking again? You know you're not old enough ;D
No kidding now, you can play Silver as you wish, but I won't touch it for as long as traders keep focused on the economic utility of silver instead of its financial role. $silver has been going down because traders perceive a slowing economy going forward. Since I agree with them on their economic forecast, why should I buy silver now?
I bought it a few days ago, but fortunately quickly saw it was a mistake and sold it.
Anyway, maybe it's time for a bounce, good luck man :)
Thanks for your thoughts on GOOG David.
Do you have any thoughts on a possible short of INTC, or has the stock tanked as low as it may go?
INTC fell through it's 200 DMA a couple days ago, and looks like it might free fall.
Thanks Again David
You're the Man!
Bourbon :D
David, I would suggest that 3SoF should not include options on this portfolio. There are completely different ball game and in no way its going to help small traders/investers like me.
Quote from: stocky on March 05, 2007, 03:16:43 PM
David, I would suggest that 3SoF should not include options on this portfolio. There are completely different ball game and in no way its going to help small traders/investers like me.
If one is fairly confident with a decline in PPS I dont see a problem with options (as long as the person knows the risks and what they are doing with options and has read a good deal of information on them.)
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 03:11:46 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 03:02:21 PM
hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?
How do you know that? ;D
I think you're somewhat confused prodigykid6, don't tell me you've been smoking again? You know you're not old enough ;D
No kidding now, you can play Silver as you wish, but I won't touch it for as long as traders keep focused on the economic utility of silver instead of its financial role. $silver has been going down because traders perceive a slowing economy going forward. Since I agree with them on their economic forecast, why should I buy silver now?
I bought it a few days ago, but fortunately quickly saw it was a mistake and sold it.
Anyway, maybe it's time for a bounce, good luck man :)
I wasn't suggesting buying now but perhaps when it touches that 120 trend line you pointed out
Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 05, 2007, 03:13:13 PM
Thanks for your thoughts on GOOG David.
Do you have any thoughts on a possible short of INTC, or has the stock tanked as low as it may go?
INTC fell through it's 200 DMA a couple days ago, and looks like it might free fall.
Thanks Again David
You're the Man!
Bourbon :D
No, you're the man !
INTC, yes, nice short, chart says it is bearish, should go down on a global economic slowdown.
Quote from: stocky on March 05, 2007, 03:16:43 PM
David, I would suggest that 3SoF should not include options on this portfolio. There are completely different ball game and in no way its going to help small traders/investers like me.
You're saying that because you don't like options or because the options in the Fire portfolio are going down today due to minor rebounds in the underlying stocks?
Anyway, I respect your opinion and I'm glad you shared it with us stocky.
If we could find another good way of turning $15,000 into $150,000 in a bear market ::)
Quote from: nullzero on March 05, 2007, 03:07:18 PM
$VIX is showing some strength again on the intraday. Maybe another bear raid on the market is in the works the last hour of trading.
From a candlestick theory point of view, it would actually be better for the bear case if the market closed near to unchanged, you know?
Because, if it closes unchanged, the candle left on the chart will resemble an "on neck" pattern, which is bearish. If it goes down and closes around the opening levels, the candle left will instead be a "doji", which would show indecision and a possible reversal of the short term trend.
Strange isn't it?
David,
Do you have anything against CFD? In short positions they work very well. You can leverage and you receive interests on a daily basis.
Quote from: Guloso on March 05, 2007, 03:37:44 PM
David,
Do you have anything against CFD? In short positions they work very well. You can leverage and you receive interests on a daily basis.
I prefer futures, but CFD's are alright too. They sure are easier than options. But most stocks don't have CFD's (or futures), just options. Another problem is one has to open a specific account for CFD's trading (I don't have a problem with that, but most people take a lot of time before deciding to change their brokers - and then it could be too late).
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 03:31:17 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 05, 2007, 03:07:18 PM
$VIX is showing some strength again on the intraday. Maybe another bear raid on the market is in the works the last hour of trading.
From a candlestick theory point of view, it would actually be better for the bear case if the market closed near to unchanged, you know?
Because, if it closes unchanged, the candle left on the chart will resemble an "on neck" pattern, which is bearish. If it goes down and closes around the opening levels, the candle left will instead be a "doji", which would show indecision and a possible reversal of the short term trend.
Strange isn't it?
Yeah it is pretty strange :P.
Wow FRPT dropping like a fly looks like a ton of stops just got triggered. The bear raid has hit again >:D last 10 mins of trading as well.
QuoteYeah it is pretty strange :P
Now just one little secret: candlestick's never gave anyone money over the long run ;)
Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 03:55:15 PM
QuoteYeah it is pretty strange :P
Now just one little secret: candlestick's never gave anyone money over the long run ;)
I mostly ignore the candle stick patterns I just try to go with volume, trendlines, and resistance and support. Candle sticks help me look over charts and seeing where the PPS was during the day.
What about LVS as a short, it is looking even weaker than FMCN
hey dave i just want to thank you for your insight and i hope you stick around for years to come!
Man I wish I shorted NEW on friday or bought some PUT options... I knew the subprime industry was poision back last summer. I just entered my short position in NEW to early back about 6 months ago. Patience is everything go with a trend and a plan and follow through.
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 04:20:40 PM
hey dave i just want to thank you for your insight and i hope you stick around for years to come!
Thank you too, I also hope you stick around :)
The "Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php)" closed up 1% on the day, not bad.
I hope tomorrow we'll see another episode of "Survival and Prosperity in a Bear Market".
Thank you for your participations, see you tomorrow :)