Good morning :)
Some guys that talk at CNBC are certainly funny. I don't know why they put three different people talking when they all think alike.
The market is opening sharply higher, let's see how the rest of the day unfolds.
I'm interested in studying some more stocks today, that Stocks Covered List (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8875.0) must continue to grow, in bull or bear markets.
Have a nice day!
David, could you take a look at SVNT. It's moving up today. I've been in and out of it several times and made a bit of $ each trip.
David,
Do you still think GOPOL is a good buy at this time? There is not a lot of time left, but I don't see this gap up lasting long.
Thanks
Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 06, 2007, 09:39:08 AM
David, could you take a look at SVNT. It's moving up today. I've been in and out of it several times and made a bit of $ each trip.
Yes, in a minute Rudy. First I'll just go for a quick walk, I don't like pain, and I'm sure feeling it now as there's a lot of short covering action at the open.
Well, not me, it would take a lot more than one higher open on a short term oversold market to make me change my views.
Good luck on your trades :)
David,
I dont think this rally will last either..
Still looking to buy puts / short:
1. GS (Reduced risk appetites & lower revenue as result)
2. MA (strong run, potential lower consumer spending)
Thoughts?
Nick
"DRL"
"EPEX"
"GSX"
"BEXP"
GMET (314M)
EGY (333M)
TMY (379M - good short point?)
David: I guess that's a universal reaction. In the States, when a ball player suffers a minor injury, he's told to "Walk it off." Of course, as a youth in Catholic school, I was told, when I scrapped a knee, to "offer it up," thus seeking remission from temporary agony in Purgatory.
Just a thought really. I know sub-prime lenders are coming under fire for real these days... here's a site devoted to the problem:
http://www.americansforfairnessinlending.org/
And... an early casualty: NEW
rebounding today but where there's smoke there's fire.
GM David,could you look at edac.ob for me? At 52 week high,earnings soon and same sector as KRSL.
Hi David,
Have a look at IVAN pleasse - is on fire today!!!
Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 06, 2007, 09:39:08 AM
David, could you take a look at SVNT. It's moving up today. I've been in and out of it several times and made a bit of $ each trip.
Technically the trend has turned bearish now, at least over the short term. The stock could correct to the 200 days moving average, coming up at $8.76. Over the very long term, I mean, watching a chart since 1980, the stock didn't go anywhere over these 27 years, just up and down a lot but staying basically the same.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $655 M. The Company was incorporated in Delaware in 1980, a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical products that address unmet medical needs in both niche and broader markets.
- The share count (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=svnt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) has been increasing by about 1 million each year for the past six years or so, that's not much
- The balance sheet looks strong, with $199 M cash and a current ratio of 5.6.
- Revenues declined in 2004 and 2005 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=svnt&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann). And declined again in Q3 2006, to $15 M from $24 M in Q2 2006. I see they probably sold a division or something in Q3 2006, didn't they?
- Diluted normalized EPS for the past 4 quarters (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=svnt&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Qtr) was $0.31, so the trailing earnings multiple is about 41, which seems high. Analysts are expecting (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=svnt) a ($0.72) per share loss in 2007, on a decline in revenues (probably because they sold a revenue stream).
I guess probably you have your motives to enjoy this stock Rudy, but I couldn't find them on this quick analysis.
Thanks :)
Quote from: eggman11 on March 06, 2007, 09:45:44 AM
David,
Do you still think GOPOL is a good buy at this time? There is not a lot of time left, but I don't see this gap up lasting long.
Thanks
Hi eggman11, you know I never get more confident when losing, and I'm losing big on those puts at this moment (not so much when considering the Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php)'s comparatively small exposure).
I wouldn't throw more money at them, maybe buy a longer maturity derivative product, but always with a small percentage of your equity, because risk is very, very high.
Good luck :)
GM David,
Nice to be able to go for a walk, not an option for me as its -22 C where I am this morning.
I don't see much strength in todays little gap rally (yet). On the major index's the 30 min high has not been taken out, 1 + hr in still below the high and below the 30 min level. Also still below the highs of yesterday and volume on the index's is moderate.
I do expect to see some rallies and sideways action and then more down over the next several weeks.
Of course this is JMHO and subject to change without notice.
Still holding QID's and some other puts and will reduce any longs left into these rallies. Mostly in cash and looking for opportunities, although still have some O&G and metals (feeling some pain there).
Quasi
Quote from: nicknite20 on March 06, 2007, 09:48:05 AM
David,
I dont think this rally will last either..
Still looking to buy puts / short:
1. GS (Reduced risk appetites & lower revenue as result)
2. MA (strong run, potential lower consumer spending)
Thoughts?
Nick
Hi Nick, let's check out GS first. Technically the stock is bearish now, as it broke down below an ascending trendline with a runaway gap. It should at least touch the 200 days SMA on this down move, currently standing at $177. It may also go down to close a gap opened between $151.23 and $154.71.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $80 B. Global investment bank, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals.
- The company bought back shares (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gs&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr) in 2005 and 2006.
- Balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gs&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr) is weird, because they account for clients money as an asset and a liability. I see long term debt growing. The book value is $35.8 B.
- Revenues had a big jump in 2006 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=gs&lstStatement=Income&stmtView=Ann) to an all time record level of $69.35 B. Analysts are expecting a more "normal" revenue number in fiscal 2007, in fact they expect (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=gs) a decline of 44% from 2006 levels.
- Normalized EPS was $19.69 in 2006, and analysts expect $19.25 for fiscal 07. The earnings multiple is about 10.1, which seems attractive, perhaps too attractive.
The more I study stocks the more I get suspicious when they trade at way below average multiples. It tells me the current earnings numbers are not sustainable, and not that they are cheap, plain and simple.
For example, Goldman gets a lot of money from M&A activity, IPO's, loans and managing clients money. I see all these businesses drying if indeed the market turns bearish for more than a couple of months as I foresee.
I guess there are better short plays outthere, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Goldman go down an additional 20% - 30% as the current bear market unfolds.
Good luck :)
I think GOOG hit it's high already today. GOOG had a big gap up today with no news and the volume is slowing. As the day goes longer more people will get nervous and sell I believe it fill in the gap over the next 2 days. We will test the recent low of 437. If we break that we will test the 200 day at 432. If GOOG fall below 432, we will drop sharply quickly another 20 points to about 410-415. If this was all to happen within the next 8 trading days when the March options expire, that would be ideal, but I believe we will at least retest the 440 area within the next couple days. Any thoughts?
Quote from: eggman11 on March 06, 2007, 10:59:38 AM
I think GOOG hit it's high already today. GOOG had a big gap up today with no news and the volume is slowing. As the day goes longer more people will get nervous and sell I believe it fill in the gap over the next 2 days. We will test the recent low of 437. If we break that we will test the 200 day at 432. If GOOG fall below 432, we will drop sharply quickly another 20 points to about 410-415. If this was all to happen within the next 8 trading days when the March options expire, that would be ideal, but I believe we will at least retest the 440 area within the next couple days. Any thoughts?
I have been trying to figure out what will happen when Yahoo reports, their quarter is expected to be good from what I have heard. On the one hand people can take that to mean good things for GOOG, or that YHOO is actually taking business back from GOOG. Anyone know when YHOO reports?
Quote2. MA (strong run, potential lower consumer spending)
Now MA, lets take care of that one. Ok, I get your point, you're selling short, buying puts on Goldman and Mastercard because you're worried about the credit picture of the US, right? Well, I'm worried too ... I feel credit defaults, especially credit card defaults and mortgage defaults, are going trough the roof. Suddenly, if a considerable amount of people start not paying their debts, others will start considering that option too. As time goes by it might even be considered normal not to pay debts by a part of the population.
If the default rate goes up to say 15 or 20% of loans, there will be huge losses at these companies. So, you think I'm crazy? Go ask the Japanese banks if I'm crazy. Many of them had to be rescued by the government (others just filed for bankruptcy), after the stock market collapse in Japan in late 1989.
Anyway, let's check the specific case of MA.
Technically the stock is now trading below the 50 days SMA, so looking like it is going to turn south.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $8.1 B. The Company is a global payment solutions company that provides a variety of services in support of the credit, debit and related payment programs of nearly 25,000 financial institutions.
- Balance sheet is strong, as cash levels are at $2.48 B
- Revenues have been growing nicely and in 2006 they were $3.33 B. The price to sales ratio is 2.43.
- They had a big tax charge in 2006. Without it they would have earned $3.62 EPS, so the trailing earnings multiple is something like 28.5.
The earnings multiple seems quite high to me, considering the risks the company faces.
Anyway, I don't know the business very well, I guess they sell their services to banks and not directly to consumers. I always thought Mastercard was a bigger than $8 B company.
I think shares will go down with the rest of the market, maybe it will close that gap at $76.25.
Good luck :)
Hi David,
Can you take a look at PRGX?
Thx,
Jerom. ;)
Hi David,
Can you take a look at LEND?
THX
achim
Quote from: kpunarc on March 06, 2007, 09:48:21 AM
"DRL"
"EPEX"
"GSX"
"BEXP"
GMET (314M)
EGY (333M)
TMY (379M - good short point?)
Gee kpunarc, you're asking for 7 analysis in a row. I would have to work just for you all day ... how can we solve this?
Well, I'll just make a few comments for each one of them, trying to capture the essential:
1) DRL
It is in a deep downtrend, and it isn't from now, it already was going down in the bull market. Revenues are shrinking every year and losses are growing. I guess Doral will be a victim of the credit meltdown that probably is about to happen in the US ... or else something is going really bad in Puerto Rico.
Overall I would avoid the stock.
2) EPEX
Jesus, I call that a bear trend ! An oil company going down like that is odd. I guess there will be a rally somewhere down the line because the stock is just too oversold, but I would use the rally to sell/sell short.
3) GSX
Another quite bearish chart. You sure know how to pick them :)
But this is a $1.8 stock, can you short it?
4) BEXP
It looks like another one set to go down some more ... also into oil exploration. It looks like the market is discounting $oil will go down, as we look at these small companies in the field.
You we're thinking of buying or selling these stocks? The trend is your friend, I would sell them.
Good luck :)
(the other 3 next)
QuoteGMET (314M)
EGY (333M)
TMY (379M - good short point?)
1) GMET
Volume is too low to consider.
2) EGY
Going down and down, even today ! Perhaps these are the stocks I should be selling short, not the ones that are still, perhaps, in a topping process.
It is another oil exploration company, looks like a great medium/long term short.
3) TMY
Now, the stock with the most bullish chart (the only bullish chart on those 7 stocks), and you're telling me if it is a good short? ;D
No, pick any of the other 6 stocks to short, but not TMY.
Good luck :)
I am amazed at how much the market can rally considering the numbers for the U S. economy are still negative. For example this article citing the plunge in factory orders http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070306/economy.html?.v=9
It will be interesting to see how we close today. I imagine the instititional investors are reducing or unloading into this rally to the retail guys. This makes me more confident on holding my FMCN short since I don't believe this rally is long-term!
Quote from: mbaugh on March 06, 2007, 12:24:02 PM
I am amazed at how much the market can rally considering the numbers for the U S. economy are still negative. For example this article citing the plunge in factory orders http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070306/economy.html?.v=9
It will be interesting to see how we close today. I imagine the instititional investors are reducing or unloading into this rally to the retail guys. This makes me more confident on holding my FMCN short since I don't believe this rally is long-term!
I agree but the markets can stay irrational long enough to lose your money before you are right. I think what were seeing is some weak hand shorts covering. Maybe the new comments from Greenspan will scare the Asians again. Who knows hopefully our leader will put everything into perspective.
yea they were all for shorting... thanks! i figure i throw in a few and leave it up to you to figure out which one(s) you would like to investigate further for the 3SOF on fire portfolio...
Thanks...you're the man!
Quote from: 2bun on March 06, 2007, 10:02:25 AM
GM David,could you look at edac.ob for me? At 52 week high,earnings soon and same sector as KRSL.
All right 2bun, I see you like low volume stocks, since EDAC.OB is a really low volume stock. At least today it is trading 47,200 shares, but yesterday just 4,300 shares changed hands. But the trend is certainly bullish, as the stock is trading above the 50 days and 200 days moving average.
Fundamentally:
- Market cap is $20 M. The Company provides complete design, manufacture and service meeting the precision requirements of some of the most exacting customers in the world for tooling, fixtures, molds, jet engine components and machine spindles.
- No dilution
- Balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=edac&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Ann) looks ok
- Revenues declined in Q3 2006 from Q2.
- EPS for the past 4 quarters was $0.32, so the trailing earnings multiple is about 14.
There's news out today:
• EDAC Technologies Reports Fourth Quarter Results With Operating Income Reaching a 5-Year High (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070305/clm293.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:45pm)
So, $0.14 EPS in the 4th quarter, if we multiply this by 4 quarters and apply an average earnings multiple of, say, 15, we get a price per share of $8.4. With the stock trading at $4.6 now I have to say it looks attractive.
Good luck 2bun :)
Quote from: jerom on March 06, 2007, 11:27:57 AM
Hi David,
Can you take a look at PRGX?
Thx,
Jerom. ;)
Wow Jerom, this sure is an interesting chart! It has been bullish lately after a 90% or so collapse. I like the chart, let me check the fundamentals ...
- Market cap is $89 M. The Company and its subsidiaries are a worldwide provider of recovery audit services to large and mid-size businesses having numerous payment transactions with many vendors including retailers, manufacturers, wholesale distributors and service providers.
- Book value is negative, that means the company is worth less than zero, according to the balance sheet (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=prgx&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr).
I guess the company needs to recover a lot of money before being worth anything again. The stock probably is just making a rally on short covering.
Is there any reason why it is up now, do you know any? I could use some help.
Thanks :)
David, what do you think of BPG and ESST?
Short AHM?
Quote from: 1laya1 on March 06, 2007, 11:51:48 AM
Hi David,
Can you take a look at LEND?
THX
achim
The market thinks LEND is going bust, and I agree. Anyone thinking this issue will stop at sub prime lenders, and not spill over to other parts of the "credit economy" is blind in my view. Once something like this starts it only stops with the FED cutting rates by a lot a flooding the system with liquidity, which is a good short term remedy, but bad for the long term.
I would use a further rally to short the stock, good luck :)
David,
Could you take a look at EDU. I already have a short position but would appreciate your input.
Thanks
I second nullzeroe's request...short AHM?
Thank you very much! It is an excellent service you are providing.
David, if FMCN closes above 75.10, then is the bearish case reversed. Would it be a good idea to cover today if it appears to close strong going into close since the stock may move another 2 points tomorrow?
David,
Do you have a plan in place for the GOOG and FMCN options? Do you have a stop loss or price in mind? Or since they expire next week, do you have a certain date to sell them on. We are getting hammered today and the market seems to be getting stronger as the day goes on (The total opposite of my earlier prediction). I only used half of the amount you allocated (5%) for the GOOG put, Would it be a good buy in the 10 area? Even though today the market is up big, I do believe that we will retest the lows at least once.
Thanks.
This board is too quiet today!
I think its time for a trade. I like IVAN and i like EDAC even more.....
CJ
Maybe its time to cover FMCN?
Im not covering anything unless its goes it hits 10% loss for me. Look at the DIA chart it looks really bearish... if I had to take a guess next I would say that the next leg is about to drop down soon to the 200dma.
I haven't covered yet! I'm just trying to sweat this one out. Its hard for me to accept being down on such an up day in the market. As for FMCN, I'm hoping it gets weaker towards the close, but so far its not.
Hi David,
What i know about PRGX:
The stock was trading between 3.00-3.50 in aug-sept 2005 and it fell to 0.24(low) in november.They did a RS (0.34-->3.4) otherwise they would be delisted from the nasdaq.
pps went down to 2.5 and ...then going north.
There was a lot of insider and institution buying between 8.00 and now...
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=prgx
A lot of chatter going on on the yahoo board about a Medicare thing wich is going national...(don't know what that means) what the price schould bring back to 30-50 at wich it was trading before the RS.
Here's the latest pr where the CEO is also talking about the Medicare thing:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070301/1425021.html?.v=1
"McCurry(CEO) added that the coming national expansion of recovery audit of Medicare to all 50 states is a good growth opportunity for the company."
Greetings,
Jerom. ;)
I just shorted TRMB at 26.43 ;)
Hey Dave, Looks like your call on FMCN may work out!
I personally believe this is a sucker's rally.
Glad I shorted TRMB here, looks like it may be my one green stock by the close. :-\
Another tough day to be short the market, but so was Thrusday last week, there will of course be days like this just as there are down days in an uptrending market.
Volume is weak on this bounce compared to all the down days. Gotta keep the faith, or the lack of it as it were, lol.
David,
Are you still there? ;) It's been a while since we heard from you. I know today stinks, but come back we miss you. :D
Hi David,
As you predicted last week, we will see some furious rallies as the Bear market continues, this just happens to be one of those days. I believe that the GOOG rally will stall, and we will see this soon when another ounce of bad news hits the market.
Keep your chins up, GOOG is now at the point on David's chart where we will most likely see a strong reversal to the downside. Remember that GOOG has lofty earnings expectations for 2007, and that if market conditions worsen, GOOG will take a big hit.
Cheers and Happiness ;D
Bourbon
May have another up day tomorrow but keep the faith its basically a very needed low volume rebound.
Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 06, 2007, 03:56:13 PM
Hi David,
As you predicted last week, we will see some furious rallies as the Bear market continues, this just happens to be one of those days. I believe that the GOOG rally will stall, and we will see this soon when another ounce of bad news hits the market.
Keep your chins up, GOOG is now at the point on David's chart where we will most likely see a strong reversal to the downside. Remember that GOOG has lofty earnings expectations for 2007, and that if market conditions worsen, GOOG will take a big hit.
Cheers and Happiness ;D
Bourbon
I hope your right about GOOG. I am nervous because it just crossed its 10-day moving average.
I bought OFI again. People are not going to stop eating and they will probably eat more if the market goes down. They will eat more if the market goes up. This is a recession proof stock. I also bought CPNE and BFLY. People will not stop using the internet and they will keep buying clothes.
Quote from: Windsurfer on March 06, 2007, 04:01:36 PM
I bought OFI again. People are not going to stop eating and they will probably eat more if the market goes down. They will eat more if the market goes up. This is a recession proof stock. I also bought CPNE and BFLY. People will not stop using the internet and they will keep buying clothes.
Careful with BLFY and CPNE... BFLY caters to high end consumer clothing... this area can get hit hard in a recession. CPNE is very volatile and a small cap those would make it pretty dangerous long term hold in a volatile and bearish market.
Quote from: nullzero on March 06, 2007, 03:56:43 PM
May have another up day tomorrow but keep the faith its basically a very needed low volume rebound.
Yes agree totally and totally expected with the last week we've had. I didn't see alot of conviction today and although most major index's did close just slightly above yesterdays high, they didn't do it by much. Probably still a little up and down to go from here before next leg down. Big chart picture still not looking good on the long side.
Quasi
Quote from: Quasi on March 06, 2007, 04:12:59 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 06, 2007, 03:56:43 PM
May have another up day tomorrow but keep the faith its basically a very needed low volume rebound.
Yes agree totally and totally expected with the last week we've had. I didn't see alot of conviction today and although most major index's did close just slightly above yesterdays high, they didn't do it by much. Probably still a little up and down to go from here before next leg down. Big chart picture still not looking good on the long side.
Quasi
Great composite of charts Quasi, applaud, keep those coming lol.
As a bear, a bit of consolation for today is that the $DJIA volume can only be described as "pitiful" :P. Less volume than usual even before the down days, but compared to any of the down days it was really weak! $COMP also small volume relative to recent.
Basically, looks more like short covering and retail investors that look at this as a "buying opportunity". The big money was NOT buying today.
This options stuff gave the Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) its biggest one day decline. Probably stocky was right. Big tuition fee.
I had to leave and took a punch in the stomach when I saw the way things closed. I knew rallies like these would come, but options and leverage made things much worse than what they could have been.
Still up 48% since January 19, 2007. I can't complaint.
Tomorrow is another day, see ya :)