From now on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) will only be accessible to 3 SOF Premium service subscribers.
The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) will be composed by my 3 preferred holdings of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), solving the problem of people with not enough resources to diversify their portfolio through 15 different holdings.
News or changes about the 3 SOF Portfolio will be send through the daily newsletter (by e-mail and private message). As it happens with the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), there won't be intraday trades or decisions, all decisions will be made with the market closed.
The 3 SOF Portfolio no longer has the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000. Its objective is to find the best of the best medium to long term picks for a concentrated portfolio. Results will flow naturally.
I've spent several years making short term trading over my 11 years trading career. This experience tells me short term trading shows great results when my hand is hot, and poor results when my hand is cold, in a never ending boom and bust cycle.
I believe long term outstanding performance is achievable through hard work using technical and fundamental analysis and having a real cool head ;)
I've considered all suggestions, thought about what I would really like to do and which direction www.3stocksonfire.org should take and came up with this solution. Of course, it doesn't suit all different personalities (which would be impossible) but I believe it is a great value proposition.
Have a nice day :)
I've copied this suggestion of eggman11 from SILC's thread:
QuoteDavid,
You mention that SILC is still one of the most attractive stocks in the portfolio. Would it be in the top 3 most attractive stocks? Is the 3 stocks on fire, still your top 3 currently. I think the stocks on fire would greatly benefit from a weekly update confirming your 3 favorite picks and any current stocks within the portfolio with potential for the 3 stocks portfolio.
Thanks
Thanks for the suggestion eggman11, the way things are going, there will be a very objective criteria to know which stocks are the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), and therefore should be bought for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/images/2007_botao_3sof_portfolio_forum.gif).
After I've designed the new valuation model for all holdings, we'll be able to order them from the most attractive to the least attractive, simply using the share price CAGR criteria. The stocks with the highest expected share price CAGR are the most attractive.
Just give me a week or so to have this done. This thread is open for additional strategic discussion about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php).
Thanks :)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 10, 2007, 07:01:48 AM
I've copied this suggestion of eggman11 from SILC's thread:
QuoteDavid,
You mention that SILC is still one of the most attractive stocks in the portfolio. Would it be in the top 3 most attractive stocks? Is the 3 stocks on fire, still your top 3 currently. I think the stocks on fire would greatly benefit from a weekly update confirming your 3 favorite picks and any current stocks within the portfolio with potential for the 3 stocks portfolio.
Thanks
Thanks for the suggestion eggman11, the way things are going, there will be a very objective criteria to know which stocks are the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), and therefore should be bought for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/images/2007_botao_3sof_portfolio_forum.gif).
After I've designed the new valuation model for all holdings, we'll be able to order them from the most attractive to the least attractive, simply using the share price CAGR criteria. The stocks with the highest expected share price CAGR are the most attractive.
Just give me a week or so to have this done. This thread is open for additional strategic discussion about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php).
Thanks :)
I think this will be a nice addition to that portfolio, good idea.
The one thing I miss about the way it was going was the community aspect where people were really talking in one place about stocks that were hot, posting charts, ideas, etc. I was hoping chat would somehow be like that but so far its a bit of a no mans land, I stayed logged in most of the day but saw almost no exchange.
Could we basically keep an "On Fire" type thread running here like there was before? Say without the element of people asking you for analysis, but just where people can share ideas in the same way that was happening a month ago? Especially with earnings season starting again, I think that could be fun :)
QuoteCould we basically keep an "On Fire" type thread running here like there was before? Say without the element of people asking you for analysis, but just where people can share ideas in the same way that was happening a month ago? Especially with earnings season starting again, I think that could be fun :)
Sure, why not?
I'll start one at the Stock Picking board because there is more audience there, from subscribers and registered users, what do you think?
Quote from: David Randolph on April 10, 2007, 07:58:59 AM
QuoteCould we basically keep an "On Fire" type thread running here like there was before? Say without the element of people asking you for analysis, but just where people can share ideas in the same way that was happening a month ago? Especially with earnings season starting again, I think that could be fun :)
Sure, why not?
I'll start one at the Stock Picking board because there is more audience there, from subscribers and registered users, what do you think?
Yes, that would be great! 8)
Sounds good
I agree with the no-man's land chat box.
I tried the "chat" too. The only "person" I see is lordbot and it does not talk about stocks.
It is very strange. It asked off the wall questions like...Do you have friends?.
It would be nice to change the "chat" format to chatter about stocks.
Just my small opinion. Thanks for listening.
Quote from: Houlahan on April 11, 2007, 10:33:34 AM
I agree with the no-man's land chat box.
I tried the "chat" too. The only "person" I see is lordbot and it does not talk about stocks.
It is very strange. It asked off the wall questions like...Do you have friends?.
It would be nice to change the "chat" format to chatter about stocks.
Just my small opinion. Thanks for listening.
Yeah I agree chat is dead a good amount of time. I rarely see more then 2-3 people in when it does fill up.
Quote from: Houlahan on April 11, 2007, 10:33:34 AM
I agree with the no-man's land chat box.
I tried the "chat" too. The only "person" I see is lordbot and it does not talk about stocks.
It is very strange. It asked off the wall questions like...Do you have friends?.
It would be nice to change the "chat" format to chatter about stocks.
Just my small opinion. Thanks for listening.
Lol, I guess you were talking to a machine Houlahan ;D
I would like to energize the chat, probably that would be the best place for what most of you are looking for, just talking about stocks that are on fire over the short term.
I have so many things to do over the next few days ... but it's a promise, next week I'll start putting that chat on fire!
Instead of the Stock Picking thread just give me a week to put the chat up and running with public. I'll start Monday sending a newsletter to the 9,200 plus 3 SOF registered users, inviting them for the chat ;)
Personally i dont think the chat will work, as its difficult to sign on to it at a certain given time in a day. I rather check a message board & post when time permits.
I miss the stock-talking board as well where ideas were exchanged.
Just my 0.02c
Quote from: nicknite20 on April 11, 2007, 11:09:14 AM
Personally i dont think the chat will work, as its difficult to sign on to it at a certain given time in a day. I rather check a message board & post when time permits.
I miss the stock-talking board as well where ideas were exchanged.
Just my 0.02c
Hmm, ok.
Since you guys have different opinions on this, let me give you mine. Personally I believe it is a waste of time to be talking about stocks that way, without a previous in depth study. People will be saying: "Hey, XYZ is running", "look at the news out for KWA", "$5 was just broken on the upside", etc.
Although this can be a fine entertainment, I prefer to do other things with my spare time, as this business is too serious to be treated like that. We're not gambling here, we're talking about people's hard earned money and financial lives.
Of course, I'm guilty of doing that in the past, but I would like to go over it and discuss more in depth and strategic stuff, that can truly lead to an above average long term performance. I don't miss the excitement of talking about flying stocks, as I don't miss the sorrow of stocks going down after I buy because of something I didn't have time to see before my purchase, because I had to act quickly or miss the move.
Anyway, as I've learned in school, "the costumer is always right", and if you want a crowded chat to talk and a thread about quick talk on stocks, who am I not to provide it?
I'll do that, the thread on the Stock Picking board will start in a few moments and the chat will be crowded in one or two weeks time.
Thank you for your suggestions :)
David,
Thanks for accomodating. I have also been guilty of rash buying at times, but Ive been trying to steer towards some a lot more DD before buying. I also have a 1 week test which i employ for BUYS (if i still like a stock 1 week after i first analyze it, i buy it). I do miss the short term run at times, but Im looking for medium-long term returns.
We have some knowledgable people here who do post some ideas with research & insight which i find very useful.
Ive employed other stock picking services / boards over the past few years, but yours is by far the best one Ive ever signed up for.
Regards,
Nick
QuoteIve employed other stock picking services / boards over the past few years, but yours is by far the best one Ive ever signed up for.
Regards,
Nick
Wow Nick, I was really in the need of reading such nice words, thanks a lot :)
Here's your thread on the Stock Picking board: Stocks on Fire thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9296.msg94994#msg94994)
3SOF board:
That's awesome. I think this idea is great for those still needing to 'grow' their portfolio.
3SOF Chat:
Maybe we can have a schedule or a calendar to start out. For example.
"Saturday @ 8:00pm ET: Technical Analysis"
"Sunday @ 1:00pm ET: Options"
"Wednesday @ 6:00pm ET: Fundamental Analysis"
"M-F @ 12:00pm ET: Controlling Emotions"
"Thursday April 12 @ 3pm: Short Term vs. Long-Term strategies"
blah blah...they're just examples but you could have a monthly or weekly calendar sent through email at the beginning of each week/month and then adjust the schedule to meet the needs of the members as time goes by...
David,
Are you going to update the status of the 3 stocks on fire portfolio this weekend? To Re-evaluate and discuss if the current 3 stocks are still the best 3 stocks.
Thanks,
Eric
Quote from: eggman11 on April 13, 2007, 09:32:11 AM
David,
Are you going to update the status of the 3 stocks on fire portfolio this weekend? To Re-evaluate and discuss if the current 3 stocks are still the best 3 stocks.
Thanks,
Eric
My plan is to derive the new 3 SOF valuation model for all stocks of the Main Portfolio, and the 3 stocks with the highest estimated share price CAGR for the next 3 years will be the top three holdings of the Main Portfolio that therefore should be the ones bought and held at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
But, I had a few problems in deriving NVTL's long term model, because fundamentals changed a lot recently and I need to know if that is a structural change or something seasonal or temporary, and the respective 2007 full year guidance.
Do you know what would be awesome in my opinion? Is to add another column to the Main Portfolio and the 3 Stocks on Fire tables, with the current estimate for the share price CAGR for the next 3 years. That way it would be easy to order holdings in terms of their reward/risk profile.
As far as I can tell SILC is still the most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, and you're right, then why the hell it isn't present on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio? Because I still need to make the model work for NVTL before knowing for sure that I should replace it for SILC in that portfolio. But, of course, I don't expect you not to own SILC just because it isn't in the Fire Portfolio, just in the Main, since it was obvious from my analysis that SILC was an extremely attractive holding since the beginning.
I update the analysis on the 3 Stocks on Fire holdings everyday, since they belong to the Main Portfolio too, I don't see why I should make a special update for them.
The road map is to apply the new valuation model to all stocks of the Main Portfolio (the candidates too, of course) and then order the stocks from the highest to the lowest estimated share price CAGR and then hold the top 3 stocks at the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
This will take some more days, but it is being done, please be patient, it's not easy to know which ones are the best, for me they're all great, that's why I own them all.
Thanks for your suggestion.
In the 3SOF portfolio, according to your CAGR model, shouldn't GIGM be replaced with SILC.
Based on yesterday's closing prices:
GIGM Current price $14.41 Optimal selling price - $42.64 potential gain - 296%
SILC Current price $23.49 Optimal selling price - $116.46 potential gain - 498%
I didn't do a comparison with the other stocks in the portfolio against the selling price of the 3SOF portfolio. There might be other cases like this.
I know you mentioned that you are considering adding the model data to the portfolio chart.
Quote from: eggman11 on April 17, 2007, 10:09:46 AM
In the 3SOF portfolio, according to your CAGR model, shouldn't GIGM be replaced with SILC.
Based on yesterday's closing prices:
GIGM Current price $14.41 Optimal selling price - $42.64 potential gain - 296%
SILC Current price $23.49 Optimal selling price - $116.46 potential gain - 498%
I didn't do a comparison with the other stocks in the portfolio against the selling price of the 3SOF portfolio. There might be other cases like this.
I know you mentioned that you are considering adding the model data to the portfolio chart.
Yep, Ramsburg is working on that as I write, we expect it to be ready tomorrow or so. Then the stocks in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) will be the ones with the highest profit potential in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), given the difference between the current market price and the optimal selling price given by the valuation model.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 11:28:17 AM
Quote from: eggman11 on April 17, 2007, 10:09:46 AM
In the 3SOF portfolio, according to your CAGR model, shouldn't GIGM be replaced with SILC.
Based on yesterday's closing prices:
GIGM Current price $14.41 Optimal selling price - $42.64 potential gain - 296%
SILC Current price $23.49 Optimal selling price - $116.46 potential gain - 498%
I didn't do a comparison with the other stocks in the portfolio against the selling price of the 3SOF portfolio. There might be other cases like this.
I know you mentioned that you are considering adding the model data to the portfolio chart.
Yep, Ramsburg is working on that as I write, we expect it to be ready tomorrow or so. Then the stocks in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) will be the ones with the highest profit potential in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), given the difference between the current market price and the optimal selling price given by the valuation model.
Now that you have the new data in place. Are you going to update the 3SOF portfolio soon? Will you make regular updates to the portfolio? Possibly twice a week or something.
David,
I understand the strategy you'd like to apply to the 3SOF portfolio as the 3 ones with the
highest potential out of the bunch in the Main. Does this imply you defy the idea of any short term trading in this portfolio as well?
I thought playing with small capital and using stocks that are experiencing a technical explosion for whatever reason, may bring some short-term gains and, for some, help establish a more substantial capital. You'll always have new and current subscribers with modest investment amount that may need help to get on their feet.
Could you please explain your exit strategy for the 3SOF portfolio picks and also reasons why you don't want to make short term trades as you've done in the past in this portfolio?
Thank you.
QuoteNow that you have the new data in place. Are you going to update the 3SOF portfolio soon? Will you make regular updates to the portfolio? Possibly twice a week or something.
Ok, every Tuesday and Friday I'll write a post about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings and strategy on this thread.
QuoteDavid,
I understand the strategy you'd like to apply to the 3SOF portfolio as the 3 ones with the
highest potential out of the bunch in the Main. Does this imply you defy the idea of any short term trading in this portfolio as well?
Yes, no short term trading in the 3 SOF Portfolio.
QuoteI thought playing with small capital and using stocks that are experiencing a technical explosion for whatever reason, may bring some short-term gains and, for some, help establish a more substantial capital. You'll always have new and current subscribers with modest investment amount that may need help to get on their feet.
The best way for a small account to grow is to own the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio, that is, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. You say "playing" with small capital. That's not a way to grow a small account, most probably it is a way to lose one's money. If a small investor wants to be a bigger investor, the best way to do it is to start thinking and acting like big (or experienced) investors do.
QuoteCould you please explain your exit strategy for the 3SOF portfolio picks and also reasons why you don't want to make short term trades as you've done in the past in this portfolio?
There are two ways of selling the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio stocks:
1) The stock is also sold on the Main Portfolio;
2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock
Reasons not to make short term trading?
1) There's a lot more stress and work involved in short term trading;
2) Results are good when my "hand is hot" and bad when my "hand is cold", in a never ending boom and bust cycle. 3 years from now the strategy of holding the top 3 stocks of the Main Portfolio would beat all my short term efforts, I have no doubt about it.
Honestly, just talking about short term speculation makes me sick, you have to let me grow as an investor.
Thank you :)
Thanks, David for the right to the point answers, as always!
In fact, short term trading makes me feel sick as well, in both cases, when I lose and when I win. I do value the effort in becoming a wise trader rather than a minute speculator. This is a great community to learn this. Hopefully, with the help of some of the silly questions, like mine, you'll be able to better see that what you do is right. ;)
For now, I will continue training my emotions to react like Jesse Livermore stated in the post that you made today, "reverse the fear and hope when they feel very natural".
There's another bad habit that I need to get rid of: smoking. As I was smoking a cigarette looking to the sea, it came to my mind that, when at short term trading, you're working for the market, instead of letting the market work for you.
I retired from short term trading. It's time to relax, study and apply a method to buy and hold the big winners of the future.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 18, 2007, 11:39:23 AM
QuoteNow that you have the new data in place. Are you going to update the 3SOF portfolio soon? Will you make regular updates to the portfolio? Possibly twice a week or something.
Ok, every Tuesday and Friday I'll write a post about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings and strategy on this thread.
QuoteDavid,
I understand the strategy you'd like to apply to the 3SOF portfolio as the 3 ones with the
highest potential out of the bunch in the Main. Does this imply you defy the idea of any short term trading in this portfolio as well?
Yes, no short term trading in the 3 SOF Portfolio.
QuoteI thought playing with small capital and using stocks that are experiencing a technical explosion for whatever reason, may bring some short-term gains and, for some, help establish a more substantial capital. You'll always have new and current subscribers with modest investment amount that may need help to get on their feet.
The best way for a small account to grow is to own the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio, that is, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. You say "playing" with small capital. That's not a way to grow a small account, most probably it is a way to lose one's money. If a small investor wants to be a bigger investor, the best way to do it is to start thinking and acting like big (or experienced) investors do.
QuoteCould you please explain your exit strategy for the 3SOF portfolio picks and also reasons why you don't want to make short term trades as you've done in the past in this portfolio?
There are two ways of selling the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio stocks:
1) The stock is also sold on the Main Portfolio;
2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock
Reasons not to make short term trading?
1) There's a lot more stress and work involved in short term trading;
2) Results are good when my "hand is hot" and bad when my "hand is cold", in a never ending boom and bust cycle. 3 years from now the strategy of holding the top 3 stocks of the Main Portfolio would beat all my short term efforts, I have no doubt about it.
Honestly, just talking about short term speculation makes me sick, you have to let me grow as an investor.
Thank you :)
I totally agree with you about holding for the long term. You previously stated" b]2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock[/b] " Doesn't this mean that SILC should replace GIGM? (NVTL is currently unknown) and if so when would the change be made? would changes only be made on the Tuesday and Friday updates, not including any fundamental changes.
QuoteI totally agree with you about holding for the long term. You previously stated" b]2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock[/b] " Doesn't this mean that SILC should replace GIGM? (NVTL is currently unknown) and if so when would the change be made? would changes only be made on the Tuesday and Friday updates, not including any fundamental changes.
The problem I have is I don't know if SILC should replace GIGM or NVTL. At today's NVTL update I'll make an effort to derive estimates for that stock, even without all the needed information.
SILC will replace GIGM or NVTL tomorrow in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Happy? :)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 18, 2007, 12:33:12 PM
QuoteI totally agree with you about holding for the long term. You previously stated" b]2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock[/b] " Doesn't this mean that SILC should replace GIGM? (NVTL is currently unknown) and if so when would the change be made? would changes only be made on the Tuesday and Friday updates, not including any fundamental changes.
The problem I have is I don't know if SILC should replace GIGM or NVTL. At today's NVTL update I'll make an effort to derive estimates for that stock, even without all the needed information.
SILC will replace GIGM or NVTL tomorrow in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Happy? :)
Don't change it on my account? I just want to see the 3SOF portfolio get a little more care and attention. :D I have a concern about the model. Since stock price is a major factor. Everytime a stock makes a little move up, it might have to be rotated out of the 3SOF portfolio for a laggard with "more potential", because the stock price has went down. I think the 3SOF can't be totally objective, I think it it might ultimately have the be a combination of the model to determine "potential gain" and some subjective analysis to see if the stock in the current enviroment (market, company news and Economy). (i.e. - Stocks is consistantly hitting new highs - blue sky breakout, new contracts are signed, dollar is cheaper)
Thanks
Quote from: eggman11 on April 18, 2007, 12:51:51 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 18, 2007, 12:33:12 PM
QuoteI totally agree with you about holding for the long term. You previously stated" b]2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock[/b] " Doesn't this mean that SILC should replace GIGM? (NVTL is currently unknown) and if so when would the change be made? would changes only be made on the Tuesday and Friday updates, not including any fundamental changes.
The problem I have is I don't know if SILC should replace GIGM or NVTL. At today's NVTL update I'll make an effort to derive estimates for that stock, even without all the needed information.
SILC will replace GIGM or NVTL tomorrow in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Happy? :)
Don't change it on my account? I just want to see the 3SOF portfolio get a little more care and attention. :D I have a concern about the model. Since stock price is a major factor. Everytime a stock makes a little move up, it might have to be rotated out of the 3SOF portfolio for a laggard with "more potential", because the stock price has went down. I think the 3SOF can't be totally objective, I think it it might ultimately have the be a combination of the model to determine "potential gain" and some subjective analysis to see if the stock in the current enviroment (market, company news and Economy). (i.e. - Stocks is consistantly hitting new highs - blue sky breakout, new contracts are signed, dollar is cheaper)
Thanks
David,
I posted this yesterday. Any thoughts?
Thanks
Quote from: eggman11 on April 19, 2007, 09:01:56 AM
Quote from: eggman11 on April 18, 2007, 12:51:51 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 18, 2007, 12:33:12 PM
QuoteI totally agree with you about holding for the long term. You previously stated" b]2) There's a better stock (in terms of expected share price CAGR, or in terms of % to exit) in the Main Portfolio that will replace the existing stock[/b] " Doesn't this mean that SILC should replace GIGM? (NVTL is currently unknown) and if so when would the change be made? would changes only be made on the Tuesday and Friday updates, not including any fundamental changes.
The problem I have is I don't know if SILC should replace GIGM or NVTL. At today's NVTL update I'll make an effort to derive estimates for that stock, even without all the needed information.
SILC will replace GIGM or NVTL tomorrow in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Happy? :)
Don't change it on my account? I just want to see the 3SOF portfolio get a little more care and attention. :D I have a concern about the model. Since stock price is a major factor. Everytime a stock makes a little move up, it might have to be rotated out of the 3SOF portfolio for a laggard with "more potential", because the stock price has went down. I think the 3SOF can't be totally objective, I think it it might ultimately have the be a combination of the model to determine "potential gain" and some subjective analysis to see if the stock in the current enviroment (market, company news and Economy). (i.e. - Stocks is consistantly hitting new highs - blue sky breakout, new contracts are signed, dollar is cheaper)
Thanks
David,
I posted this yesterday. Any thoughts?
Thanks
Any Thoughts on the above. I posted it a few days ago.
You mentioned that you would provide an update for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio on Tuesdays and Fridays. Will it be ready later today?
Thanks
QuoteAny Thoughts on the above. I posted it a few days ago.
You mentioned that you would provide an update for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio on Tuesdays and Fridays. Will it be ready later today?
Thanks
Yes, thanks for the reminder.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 20, 2007, 01:07:39 PM
QuoteAny Thoughts on the above. I posted it a few days ago.
You mentioned that you would provide an update for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio on Tuesdays and Fridays. Will it be ready later today?
Thanks
Yes, thanks for the reminder.
eggman11, you've been doing very well pressing the need for me and Ramsburg to have more love and care for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), that portfolio page isn't in the same league as the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) page and that needs to be fixed.
We need a chart since inception, the closed trades table with the size of each position (of course, you know the positions in options were made with less than 10% of capital, instead of the usual 33.3%, but a new subscriber doesn't know that) and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page still has the old 3 Stocks menu.
I would like to write a brief history of the Fire Portfolio and its direction for the future, but for that I need the all history chart and the size of all trades.
I'll have to delay this report until Ramsburg makes the necessary changes, probably on Sunday we'll have it here, sorry for this.
But, you know that I update the analysis on all three holdings of the Fire Portfolio (CIMT, GIGM and SILC) everyday on this board, so the problem isn't with each holding, but with the overall strategy and future direction of this small and concentrated portfolio, right?
Give me a couple of more days, again, thanks for raising your voice on this subject.
Is there going to be a Tuesday 3SOF update?
Quote from: eggman11 on April 24, 2007, 10:16:30 AM
Is there going to be a Tuesday 3SOF update?
As you can see on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) Ramsburg did all the necessary improvements so I can do the Tuesday's and Friday's update to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Expect it about 3 hours after the market close, see ya :)
David,
I have a concern about the model. Since stock price is a major factor. Everytime a stock makes a little move up, it might have to be rotated out of the 3SOF portfolio for a laggard with "more potential", because the stock price has went down. I think the 3SOF can't be totally objective, I think it it might ultimately have the be a combination of the model to determine "potential gain" and some subjective analysis to see if the stock in the current enviroment (market, company news and Economy). (i.e. - Stocks is consistantly hitting new highs - blue sky breakout, new contracts are signed, dollar is cheaper)
Any thoughts?
Thanks
Quote from: eggman11 on April 24, 2007, 10:16:30 AM
Is there going to be a Tuesday 3SOF update?
As you can see on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) Ramsburg did all the necessary improvements so I can do the Tuesday's and Friday's update to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
Expect it about 3 hours after the market close, see ya :)
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Update?
3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio Update - 04/25/2007The idea of these bi-weekly updates is to keep track of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings and trading strategy. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is a very concentrated portfolio of just 3 different stock holdings (approximately 33.33% of capital initially invested in each holding).
Evolution Since InceptionThe 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) started in January 19, 2007, with $15,000. Currently the portfolio is up 57% to $23,550:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36147;image)
The problem is most of the gains were made in the first month of the portfolio's history, when I was buying momentum+value small cap stocks and selling them when they lost short term momentum. I've abandoned that strategy because it couldn't be followed by subscribers (because decisions were made on an intraday basis, and people don't have time to be glued all day watching quotes or the e-mail, and there were also slippage costs). Also it was stressful, nice while my hand was hot, but that never lasts.
I'm much more happy with the current strategy of holding the top 3 stocks of the Main Portfolio, in terms of their share price CAGR, or "% to Exit". According to my valuation model, the 3 stocks held in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) are the 3 most attractive stocks of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
Current holdingsThe current holdings are CIMT, GIGM and SILC:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36148;image)
I'm winning on all three, especially on CIMT, since I bought it at the same time here as I did for the Main. If I had done the same with SILC, where the Main is gaining 89%, results on this portfolio would be a lot better, but what could have been done doesn't matter, just reality.
I update the analysis on all these three stocks at the Main Portfolio message board every trading day, so I have nothing to add to those analysis now. Just that these three seem to be the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio, given the current fundamental information, but that is always very hard to know. I'll feel good if they rise over the long term, even if they turn out not to be exactly the best stocks.
Current StrategyQuoteDavid,
I have a concern about the model. Since stock price is a major factor. Everytime a stock makes a little move up, it might have to be rotated out of the 3SOF portfolio for a laggard with "more potential", because the stock price has went down. I think the 3SOF can't be totally objective, I think it it might ultimately have the be a combination of the model to determine "potential gain" and some subjective analysis to see if the stock in the current enviroment (market, company news and Economy). (i.e. - Stocks is consistantly hitting new highs - blue sky breakout, new contracts are signed, dollar is cheaper)
Yes, there will always be subjectivity and stock price trend analysis involved, but I hope to be flexible enough to lower fundamental estimates if a stock starts trending down, in a way that a bearish stock doesn't get more attractive than other bullish stocks.
What I mean is, the market should confirm my fundamental views of the future. If it doesn't I'll work hard to find out what's wrong, and be more inclined to change my views according to what the market thinks, because, in the end, the market is always right. What needs to be done in this respect is to differentiate what is short term technical noise and what is genuine market talk. The market isn't talking when a stock trades within a trading range of +/- 5%. Or if the reaction is too abrupt due to news (like it is happening with TZOO today), the market isn't talking in my opinion, it is screaming emotions. It will be very natural for me to see the stock closing near the opening levels and start climbing from there over the next few months.
Anyway, the basic premise of the current strategy is that one can't predict short term movements in a consistent manner over the long term. The highest long term returns will be made by long term investors in the best small cap stocks.
That's what I'm doing and will continue to do.
The Future of the 3 Stocks on Fire PortfolioI'm going to put back on the table the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 with this Portfolio, and if the objective is accomplished sometime in the future, reset it and start over again. The objective of this portfolio always was, and will always be, to help people with little starting capital achieve an equity that allows them to diversify their investments through 15 different holdings, like we do at the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
From the current value of, let me see, $23,476.5, to get to $150,000 in say, 3 years, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) needs a compound annual growth rate of 85.56%. The average expected share price CAGR of the current 3 holdings is, curiously enough, 82.61%. So, if these 3 stocks do their job properly, the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 in about 3 years will be achieved (or there about).
I welcome your suggestions, but I'll stay the course, stick to my guns (just love this sentence, I can't help using it ;D)
David,
In choosing the 3SOF, do you take into account current developments or is strictly based on the expected percentage rate of return. For instance, TZOO had a recent drop in price along with the recent buyback announcement from TZOO, authoring the buyback of 1 million shares, which is 1/3 of the float coupled with its drop in price might make it more attractive then SILC which its expected reuturn percentage has been cut in half. Even though SILC has higher a expected percentage of 208% vs. TZOO at 158%, but its expected increase is trending down. Would it be possible for it to be replaced with a lower expected gainer, beacuse the outlook and recent developments have not effected their CAGR percentages, like TZOOs Expected increase in revenue due to Europe and Asia and their buyback.
I am not saying you should replace SILC with TZOO in the 3SOF portfolio, but I was wondering if the 3SOF is going to be stictly based on the percentage of expected return. I believe the expected rate of return is a good place to start, but you can't go strictly by a formula, it must include news and developments thatc an't be quantified in a formula. -i.e. new product introduction, stock buyback, new contract signed...etc
Thanks,
Eric
David,
There was no tuesday update, for the 3SOF portfolio. Please don't ignore the 3SOF portfolio.
For finding new leads, I liked the idea of people sending in stocks for you to analyze and then analyzing a few each day. I found some good winners that way, some ended up as part of the 3SOF portfolio and some were not (ex. BTJ). Granted about 90% don't make the cut, but I still think it is a great way to uncover some hidden gems.
Thanks for your hard work.
Quote from: eggman11 on May 02, 2007, 09:42:07 AM
David,
There was no tuesday update, for the 3SOF portfolio. Please don't ignore the 3SOF portfolio.
For finding new leads, I liked the idea of people sending in stocks for you to analyze and then analyzing a few each day. I found some good winners that way, some ended up as part of the 3SOF portfolio and some were not (ex. BTJ). Granted about 90% don't make the cut, but I still think it is a great way to uncover some hidden gems.
Thanks for your hard work.
Yep, I was expecting the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) to be higher than the latest update to do a new one, but you're right, that's not a sound way to work. I'll try to do it today.
Yes, analysis on demand seems like a nice way to find good stocks. I would like to cover 3 new ones each day, but not being disciplined enough for now. Thanks for your suggestions, I'll consider them.
QuoteDavid,
There was no tuesday update, for the 3SOF portfolio. Please don't ignore the 3SOF portfolio.
Hi eggman11, I've been ignoring this (sorry) because honestly I don't know what to say. I update the analysis of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) holdings everyday, and the 3 stocks held are still the ones I consider the most attractive of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php).
I'm not ignoring the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, I just think there isn't any change to make at this point. SILC and CIMT are going through a corrective process, but I believe that suddenly they will shoot to new highs, so, no reason to sell. GIGM is a more stable (also much higher market cap) stock and one of the top 3 holdings of the Main.
QuoteFor finding new leads, I liked the idea of people sending in stocks for you to analyze and then analyzing a few each day. I found some good winners that way, some ended up as part of the 3SOF portfolio and some were not (ex. BTJ). Granted about 90% don't make the cut, but I still think it is a great way to uncover some hidden gems.
Yes, me and Ramsburg, we're having extra work (I believe you'll be pleased when it's ready), but when that's done I'm going to restart making 3 analysis on demand per trading day.
Thanks for your suggestions eggman11 :)
David,
in your trading strategy, you consider more important the 3stocks on fire portfolio or the Main Portfolio?
I continue to see a decline in 3SOF portfolio, since I subscribed (it was up 56%, now 18%).
I lost 40% of the capital invested, so I guess what your subscriber should do: Main or 3SOF?
Cheers,
tera
Quote from: terainvestment on June 28, 2007, 10:14:40 AM
David,
in your trading strategy, you consider more important the 3stocks on fire portfolio or the Main Portfolio?
I continue to see a decline in 3SOF portfolio, since I subscribed (it was up 56%, now 18%).
I lost 40% of the capital invested, so I guess what your subscriber should do: Main or 3SOF?
Cheers,
tera
I believe that from the effort I dedicate to each portfolio, the daily newsletter content and the history of both portfolios you clearly see that I consider the Main Portfolio a lot more important than the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.
I think this goes to show a diversified strategy beats a high risk, concentrated strategy over the long run.
The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio has the stocks with the highest potential, but also with the most risk. Any day one of those stocks (especially CIMT and GSCP.OB) can run up 100% and completely change the performance, but for the past few months the portfolio has been declining steadily.
I probably should have shut down that portfolio when I stopped being active on it, it wasn't a good idea to try to adapt it.
What can I say, I pay little attention to the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Do you think I should try to do something and push it higher? I believe the three holdings have huge potential and with time they'll perform, but drawdowns and the waiting time can be somewhat long.
Thanks for your reply David, I saw that performance of 3SONF portfolio were great.
The fact is that I have a small amount of money to invest in the market and dividing it by 15 trades it is not a good idea (for transaction costs, mainly).
Looking forward for a great coming back of 3SOF!
:-)
Quote from: terainvestment on June 28, 2007, 11:49:35 AM
Thanks for your reply David, I saw that performance of 3SONF portfolio were great.
The fact is that I have a small amount of money to invest in the market and dividing it by 15 trades it is not a good idea (for transaction costs, mainly).
Looking forward for a great coming back of 3SOF!
:-)
Yes, that portfolio rose 80% or so in just about 2 months, but then it came off quite sharply. I had NVTL in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, but people insisted that I should replace it for SILC because the valuation model had superior results for SILC than for NVTL. If I had kept NVTL history would be different. But of course "if" doesn't count. But it is also true that I kept NVTL.
I'm feeling dizzy watching SILC rise 8% today ... but it's fair, I sure deserve the punishment for being a weak hand. Now I'm more confident than ever the market doesn't know what will happen next. And that gives me even more confidence for CIMT, GIGM and GSCP.OB. I'll hold them as strongly as I can and will certainly be rewarded.
Thanks for being so cool :)
David I copied and pasted this from the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page 2
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Re: About the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio
« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2007, 11:39:23 AM »
Reply with quoteQuote
Quote
Now that you have the new data in place. Are you going to update the 3SOF portfolio soon? Will you make regular updates to the portfolio? Possibly twice a week or something.
Ok, every Tuesday and Friday I'll write a post about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio holdings and strategy on this thread.
Quote
David,
I understand the strategy you'd like to apply to the 3SOF portfolio as the 3 ones with the
highest potential out of the bunch in the Main. Does this imply you defy the idea of any short term trading in this portfolio as well?
Yes, no short term trading in the 3 SOF Portfolio.
Quote
I thought playing with small capital and using stocks that are experiencing a technical explosion for whatever reason, may bring some short-term gains and, for some, help establish a more substantial capital. You'll always have new and current subscribers with modest investment amount that may need help to get on their feet.
David this is your quote!
The best way for a small account to grow is to own the top 3 holdings of the Main Portfolio, that is, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. (/b) You say "playing" with small capital. That's not a way to grow a small account, most probably it is a way to lose one's money. If a small investor wants to be a bigger investor, the best way to do it is to start thinking and acting like big (or experienced) investors do.
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So, according to this I invested a few dollars (less than $5,000) I had into the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. What are you talking about I probably should have shut down that portfolio when I stopped being active on it, it wasn't a good idea to try to adapt it.
I know you update the individual stocks from the FIRE portfolio because they are listed on the MAIN too. But you hand picked the top 3 stocks to invest if you did not have the 100,000 to invest into the main. So, is it now up to individual investors to pick 3 stocks we think are the best long term investment?
Why not place a * star next to the best stock from the Main, in your opinion, based on parameters you list and delete the FIRE portfolio. Please keep us informed. This is a little dishearting to read. I was following the FIRE with maybe one pick from Main on occasion. So what is 3 stocks on FIRE? Change the name of your service to "Stocks on Fire". I was relying on your knowledge and gaining your knowledge because I know very little compared to some other guys & gals on this site.
Feeling ??? confused.
David I have learned so much and your service has saved me a lot of time. The market is very tough to play now, but there are still winners out there.
It's hard to know if a stock will go up or not, even harder to know which ones will rise the most.
Anyway, I believe the 3 stocks currently in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio have the highest potential, but it may take months or even years for that to happen. Or I might be wrong.
The best way for long term wealth creation is to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks. It is very, very hard to turn a small account (say, less than $5,000) into a meaningful investment account, of say, $100,000. It is as difficult as turning $100,000 into $2,000,000.
I need to manage expectations better.
What do you want me to do? I'm sure you know that on other services (for example, TheStreet.com, Fool.com or Zacks.com) they'll present you a list of 100 or more stocks and then it is up to you pick from the list. I went further and have just 15 stocks. It still wasn't enough to please everybody, because several people didn't diversify over 15 holdings. So "what about 3? - it has to do with the name of the website and all". But of course, having just three stocks is risky, even more so when those three stocks are micro caps that may explode higher or be put to sleep for months.
Be patient, or else ... I'll write you a private message.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2007, 03:58:29 PM
It's hard to know if a stock will go up or not, even harder to know which ones will rise the most.
Anyway, I believe the 3 stocks currently in the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio have the highest potential, but it may take months or even years for that to happen. Or I might be wrong.
The best way for long term wealth creation is to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks. It is very, very hard to turn a small account (say, less than $5,000) into a meaningful investment account, of say, $100,000. It is as difficult as turning $100,000 into $2,000,000.
I need to manage expectations better.
What do you want me to do? I'm sure you know that on other services (for example, TheStreet.com, Fool.com or Zacks.com) they'll present you a list of 100 or more stocks and then it is up to you pick from the list. I went further and have just 15 stocks. It still wasn't enough to please everybody, because several people didn't diversify over 15 holdings. So "what about 3? - it has to do with the name of the website and all". But of course, having just three stocks is risky, even more so when those three stocks are micro caps that may explode higher or be put to sleep for months.
Be patient, or else ... I'll write you a private message.
David it seems you are being pulled in all directions.
Trying to please short term trader and long term traders and market timers.
I suggest you focus on what you do best, short term trades and micro caps.
Let some one handle a portfolio for the long term holder, of course people can
pick and choose stocks between them if they so desire. Both portfolio can have special situations for short term trade.
What do you think?
QuoteDavid it seems you are being pulled in all directions.
Trying to please short term trader and long term traders and market timers.
I suggest you focus on what you do best, short term trades and micro caps.
Let some one handle a portfolio for the long term holder, of course people can
pick and choose stocks between them if they so desire. Both portfolio can have special situations for short term trade.
What do you think?
I think I don't tell you how to do your job, so don't tell me out to do mine. Thank you.