3SOF

Good morning :)

Sorry for the late open (again), I still didn't get used to the hour change (it didn't change here in Europe, yet).

My contribution today will be 3 more or less in depth video analysis.

Post anything you feel like it, have a nice day :)

WITM.OB, been doing well the last few days and more things to come this week. 

Quote from: oakhedge on March 13, 2007, 09:45:56 AM
WITM.OB, been doing well the last few days and more things to come this week. 

I'm not looking for OTCBB traded stocks oakhedge, but good luck on that one :)

I'm running my Metastock filter to see what's in play now, just looking for interesting sectors/specific stories to study.

Thanks :)

Hello David,

I am unable to access some of the features of the free 3SOF pages and I just wanted to know what's new?  I can see that you sold the last 3 positions you were holding...but now what?  are you trading shorts, longs, options???  where do you think this market is going in until the end of this summer?

Also, everybody knows china is way overvalued...so what gives?  i wonder since china is playing long long long term...will it self-sustain as long the west keeps dumping in it?

Thanks

Hi David,

DSTI is looking good this morning after its recent correction.  What do you think?

David what do you think of a short SPC?

AOB please, Thanks.

QuoteHello David,

Hi nsioufi :)

QuoteI am unable to access some of the features of the free 3SOF pages and I just wanted to know what's new?

Since yesterday, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php) is accessible only to subscribers of the Premium service. That Portfolio is now a "top 3" from the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), which is a diversified portfolio. Also, we're not offering any free trial anymore. We're looking for long term solid subscribers and we don't bother if it takes several years to increase our subscriber base just by word of mouth. We're happy with the ones we have.

QuoteI can see that you sold the last 3 positions you were holding...but now what?

From now on only subscribers to the Premium service will know what I'm doing with the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio capital, I'm sorry.

Quoteare you trading shorts, longs, options???

I have long and short positions in stocks and ETF's. I'll never touch options again, but I wish good luck to people trading them.

Quotewhere do you think this market is going in until the end of this summer?

I see the current market development as a correction, not the start of a new bear market (as I gathered more information I've turned less bearish). This correction may last a couple to 4 months more, I don't have a clue, and the SPY can go below its 200 days moving average, around $135. That would mean a further 4% drop from current levels.

I'll maintin most of my short positions for as long as the SPY doesn't close above the key $141.69 level.

QuoteAlso, everybody knows china is way overvalued...so what gives?

China is overvalued but I don't see it crashing for now. Private consumption accounts for only 35% of the GDP, if internal demand picks up China may have another 10 years of strong growth.

Quotei wonder since china is playing long long long term...will it self-sustain as long the west keeps dumping in it?

Sorry, didn't understand the part "west keeps dumping in it".

Thanks for your questions, have a nice day :)

David!  I am very sorry but I respect your decision about closing"3stock on Fire" for the public.

My 3stock on fire today -CIMT,LJPC and AMRN.

Will appreciate your opinion on any of those stocks.

Hey David, what do you think of JSDA? Thanks.

Ok guys, I see you're still interested in me covering your stocks (or stocks in your watch list), and I'm having trouble choosing the ones to cover myself (because I see too much information before I start and then I don't feel like making a video on it), so I guess it is a good idea to go back to that poll method. This time I'll cover the top 3 stocks with a more in depth video analysis.

I accept suggestions for the poll until, say, 12:00 ET, and then the poll will run for 15 minutes to get today's winners.

Thanks for your suggestions :)

IGTE

Hello David could u check  MCZ

My suggestion is CMGI, let's put the poll rolling now.

David, Excellent work on GOOG!! ;D

Ok, the poll is closed, the winners were JSDA, CMGI and AMRN (in case of a draw I pick the one to cover).

Thanks for your votes :)

Hi guys,

I don't know about you, but I think things are looking decidedly bearish out there.  The Dow just broke trough 2180 and 2160 support - if it breaks 2150 I could see it going down another 60 points from where it is now in short order.

Quote from: mbaugh on March 13, 2007, 12:21:30 PM
David, Excellent work on GOOG!! ;D

Still hanging onto those puts here...maybe they'll be worth something in the next day or two...

I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

Quote from: nullzero on March 13, 2007, 02:09:24 PM
I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

I still say it is not a bear market .. yet.   This is the second leg pullback, just like last May. 

Quote from: TraderStar on March 13, 2007, 02:12:03 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 13, 2007, 02:09:24 PM
I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

I still say it is not a bear market .. yet.   This is the second leg pullback, just like last May. 

We will have to wait and see, there is way to much bullish sediment espically right after a major decline like that. People flip flop to quickly at uptick of the market, we were faked out on a bear market on the last correction in the summer of 06, but I believe this time around it will not be the case.

Quote from: nullzero on March 13, 2007, 02:09:24 PM
I think david was 100% right on his first call of the bearish market. As always our first call is usually the right one. The emerging markets are going to have a blood bath later today on worries of extreme recession and slow down in consumer spending.

It's nice to see the market plunging and the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) up 1.64% ;)

Quote
It's nice to see the market plunging and the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) up 1.64% ;)

I agree - it's got a strange appeal to it.   >:D

Feels like the next bear raid is going to happen the last hour of trading.

dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 02:52:08 PM
dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

Panic? No, they will go down, but I don't see panic. The main problem is the US consumer and its lack of savings, Asian economies will probably center on their internal demand and will do Ok.

When the 1987 crash happened, the Nikkei 225 had just a minor blip and continued higher ... but are you talking long or short term? I dislike talking short term.

Good luck :)

No doubt the emerging markets are going to hit pretty hard. Panic... who knows though Japan, China, and the rest of the Asian countries are heavily dependent on the American consumer for GDP growth.

I just bought some puts on BIDU

OK, I think we are abou to see things get a bit ugly.  Dow just hit a new low and pierced 12100.   watch out if 12090 get taken out.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 13, 2007, 02:54:37 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 02:52:08 PM
dave do you think the asians will wake up in the morning and panic because of the yen carry trade and our markets dropping? is there a play there?

Panic? No, they will go down, but I don't see panic. The main problem is the US consumer and its lack of savings, Asian economies will probably center on their internal demand and will do Ok.

When the 1987 crash happened, the Nikkei 225 had just a minor blip and continued higher ... but are you talking long or short term? I dislike talking short term.

Good luck :)

Japan should start supporting itself as its consumers start taking their trillions of dollars worth of yen out from their postal savings accounts and from under their mattresses and start spending.  Their GDP growth numbers were really strong a few days ago.

However, agreed that their should be some more short term downside from the US down moves.  This has to cause more undwinding of the carry trade, which is going to raise the yen, which will put a damper on importers for awhile.

But when Japan does rebound, I hope to trade some of their stocks directly with a yen account i will set up at Etrade  ;)

I read on a realmoney.com blog comment that maybe there are some trading collars in effect today too, which would point to more possible weakness tomorrow.  Anyone know if that is true?

when the trading curbs kick in is this a indication for the market to trade one way or another in the future?

JSDA video analysis:



JSDA is one of those I dream about buying at less than $1, but now? Absolutely not, way overvalued in my opinion, should be cut in half, Wall Mart or no Wall Mart.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 03:26:06 PM
when the trading curbs kick in is this a indication for the market to trade one way or another in the future?

Trading curbs are in CNBC says, this will probably just draw out the downside the rest of the week. Emerging markets are going to lead way to more downside possibly tommorow... Then the rest of the important economic indicators the rest of the week (CPI, PPI, etc.).

Thanks David!

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 03:26:06 PM
when the trading curbs kick in is this a indication for the market to trade one way or another in the future?

Well, I guess that depends on the direction of the market when the curbs are placed, though I guess they are unlikely to be placed on an up market.

The logic is that if there are curbs on a falling market, then not all the selling that would normally occur does.  The curbs help stop overt panic that would then cause a selling frenzy.  But the remnant selling that got curbed on the first day could still happen later.  That is the thinking anyway, but I guess it could work differently if it kicked in and curbed ONLY the potential panic selling somehow, for example.

Eric Bolling said if the S&P drops below 1371 things could get ugly...where does he come up with this number?

I think that was the low of the previous decline prodigykid.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 03:58:16 PM
Eric Bolling said if the S&P drops below 1371 things could get ugly...where does he come up with this number?

Not sure about 1371, but if it closes below 1374 I see things getting ugly because that was recent low set on 3/5.  But below that it seems there is some support at the low 136x range.  1350 looks like a great place for a bounce if it can hold as its both a support line and the current 200sma.

No doubt in my mind the market will go lower.  The nasdaq will at least drop to the 200dma or just below...like other pullbacks over the last few years.

Nasdaq may even drop to the 3 year bottom channel in the coming weeks...today the trendline's around 2150.

If below that :'(   

Quote from: tokyopua on March 13, 2007, 04:08:20 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 03:58:16 PM
Eric Bolling said if the S&P drops below 1371 things could get ugly...where does he come up with this number?

Not sure about 1371, but if it closes below 1374 I see things getting ugly because that was recent low set on 3/5.  But below that it seems there is some support at the low 136x range.  1350 looks like a great place for a bounce if it can hold as its both a support line and the current 200sma.

ahh i see now. so pretty much if we open lower tomorrow thats bearish and if we close below 1371 support thats even more bearish and the next support level is the 200 day moving average which is 1350.

i think we go lower tomorrow and test the 200sma but i doubt it goes lower. could be wrong but if we go lower than that then i bet the yen carry over and the asian economies fall apart as well.

wow if i would have seen the SPY and COMPQ charts a week ago I would have never went long on anything. its amazing how much there still is to learn. thanks for the education as well guys and dave.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 04:36:41 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 13, 2007, 04:08:20 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 13, 2007, 03:58:16 PM
Eric Bolling said if the S&P drops below 1371 things could get ugly...where does he come up with this number?

Not sure about 1371, but if it closes below 1374 I see things getting ugly because that was recent low set on 3/5.  But below that it seems there is some support at the low 136x range.  1350 looks like a great place for a bounce if it can hold as its both a support line and the current 200sma.

ahh i see now. so pretty much if we open lower tomorrow thats bearish and if we close below 1371 support thats even more bearish and the next support level is the 200 day moving average which is 1350.

i think we go lower tomorrow and test the 200sma but i doubt it goes lower. could be wrong but if we go lower than that then i bet the yen carry over and the asian economies fall apart as well.

Well, a lower open can be bearish at the moment it happens, but if it creates a gap down (which it would since the closes today were on the lows of the session), you would likely see a bounce back up to fill the gap.  That can ironically create the momentum needed to have a weak bounce. 

However, and open only slightly lower that gets filled quickly and advances down will be more bearish.

But regardless of the open tomorrow, today again indicates a bearish tone to near term trade.  I have posted a lot about IBD correction theory and today clearly snaps the rally attempt from last week. 

CMGI analysis:



I'll leave AMRN for first thing tomorrow, youtube.com takes an eternity to upload videos at this time of the day.

See ya :)