3SOF

Good morning :)

I still have AMRN to cover from yesterday and I need to make an analysis on NVTL, but I'm still looking for two more suggestions to cover today.

Please place your suggestions until 10:30 and then we'll run a poll from 10:30 to 11:00 to vote for the two stocks.

I hope everything is well with you, it is a beautiful sunny day from where I'm standing :)

I have a feeling the market will close down today so i just bought some SPY puts...what do you think?

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 14, 2007, 09:45:03 AM
I have a feeling the market will close down today so i just bought some SPY puts...what do you think?

I promised myself not to touch options again, but I agree on the direction of your trade, the worst thing that could happen to bulls this morning was a higher open. Momentum is on the bear's side.

Do you still have those BIDU puts? Great trade ;)

yeah i just sold the BIDU puts because i figured BIDU would show some support on the 200sma. I just made 2,000 in ten minutes on the SPY puts. maybe ill dip my toe in the water again on the SPY puts since i think it wil go lower.

David,
Still holding BIDU puts on which i have so far a 106% unrealized gains..GREAT call. Do you think this goes lower??
Nick

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 14, 2007, 09:54:01 AM
yeah i just sold the BIDU puts because i figured BIDU would show some support on the 200sma. I just made 2,000 in ten minutes on the SPY puts. maybe ill dip my toe in the water again on the SPY puts since i think it wil go lower.

Congrats but keep your head cool prodigykid6, listen to me, you'll lose big bucks if you just keep playing options. Leverage kills a trader. Been there, done that. I feel you're prone to take high risks because you're young ...

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 14, 2007, 09:56:14 AM
David,
Still holding BIDU puts on which i have so far a 106% unrealized gains..GREAT call. Do you think this goes lower??
Nick

It might go lower but I took my profits at the 200 days moving average, as you know. I'm not so bearish on the Chinese economy, and even though BIDU is very expensive, I see it going higher over the very long term.

Good luck :)

SMTX...just reported earnings.  gapped up to a 52 week high.  Good earnings...only concern is debt level

TORONTO, March 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - SMTC Corporation (Nasdaq: SMTX, TSX: SMX) ("SMTC"), a global electronics manufacturing services provider, announced today its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 which are expressed in US dollars.

    Fourth quarter and full year highlights

    -   Growth in fourth quarter revenue to $76.1 million, a 31% increase
        over fourth quarter 2005.

    -   Net income of $2.1 million for the fourth quarter, an increase of 49%
        compared to the fourth quarter of 2005.

    -   EBITDA(x) of $5.3 million in the quarter, representing a 66% increase
        over the fourth quarter of 2005.

    -   Growth led by strengthening diversified customer base of both
        long-standing and new customers.

    -   Full year revenue of $262.8 million, an increase of $34.0 million, or
        15% over 2005.

    -   Record net income for the full year 2006 of $10.5 million, including
        one-time items of $5.0 million compared with a loss of $0.1 million
        for 2005

    -   EBITDA(x) of $16.0 million for the full year 2006, representing a 78%
        increase over 2005. The full year EBITDA(x) for 2006 excludes the
        impact of one-time items.

I'm interested in studying stocks that can benefit from a potential Chinese consumption boom. I'm thinking XING, CHINA, JADE, BIDU, what else?

How about GIGM?

Quote from: johnwho44 on March 14, 2007, 10:19:11 AM
How about GIGM?

GIGM, good idea, I've already made some analysis on it, but would like to make another one.

SVA, AOB, what else?

MHJ...

Man Sang Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in purchasing, processing, assembling, merchandising, and wholesale distributing pearls, pearl jewelry products, and jewelry products. Its product lines include freshwater pearls, Chinese cultured pearls, Japanese cultured pearls, South Sea pearls and Tahitian pearls, pearl jewelry, and other jewelry products. The company also provides assembled pearl jewelry, including necklaces, earrings, rings, pendants, broaches, bracelets, cufflinks, and miscellaneous pearl products. In addition, Man Sang owns and operates a commercial real estate complex in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. Its customers principally include wholesale distributors and mass merchandisers in Europe, the United States, Hong Kong, and other Asian countries.

BARE and SPC short how do they look david?

This was due for a correction, but the current Chinese bull market is still young. With consumption still accounting for just 35% of GDP there are big opportunities there.

Maybe China will just grow as Japan did in the 60's and 70's, and the US did in the 80's and 90's to become the largest economy in the world.

This is the mainstream idea, I know, but what if it's right? The Chinese have the savings to do it, whereas Americans for example don't.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 10:17:07 AM
I'm interested in studying stocks that can benefit from a potential Chinese consumption boom. I'm thinking XING, CHINA, JADE, BIDU, what else?

PCU, SLV, EEM, FXI

CHL, FMCN, HMIN, HOKU, SOLF

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 14, 2007, 10:28:27 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 10:17:07 AM
I'm interested in studying stocks that can benefit from a potential Chinese consumption boom. I'm thinking XING, CHINA, JADE, BIDU, what else?

PCU, SLV, EEM, FXI

CHL, FMCN, HMIN, HOKU, SOLF

Damn, too late Prodigy, the poll is already running. But keep those for tomorrow's poll, I'm interested in them, thanks :)

ASTI over 40% today  ;D

Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

Ok, GIGM and CHINA were the winners. I have AMRN, NVTL, GIGM and CHINA to cover today.

Thanks, see ya :)

Quote from: nullzero on March 14, 2007, 10:55:18 AM
Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

Do you expect some fallout from the subprime chaos here?

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 14, 2007, 11:07:15 AM

Quote from: nullzero on March 14, 2007, 10:55:18 AM
Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

Do you expect some fallout from the subprime chaos here?

Most definately talk is cheap with the subprime lenders... CFC managment is pumping up there stock price by going on CNBC releasing statements saying they will survive and do fine etc... Fact is you can never predict if the people you lended to are going to pay you back. CFC is the 4th largest subprime lenders in the U.S.... there is no way in hell that they are magically going to be bloodied up by the fallout. Also talk is cheap but actions speak volumes... why is it that insiders are cashing out millions of dollars worth of stock the last few weeks if things are supposely going to be ok.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CFC

nullzero, u have a point. I think i'll follow you on Jul puts.

Careful with CFC, they are much stronger then LEND.  ???

Quote from: HomeBound on March 14, 2007, 11:19:35 AM
Careful with CFC, they are much stronger then LEND.  ???

Its relatively safe considering we havent tested the summer lows as of yet. Chances are CFC wont go bankrupt but they will most likely encounter very weak earnings and outlook. Considering that this market is looking more bearish then last summer correction and that CFC can very easily sink below 32s... I would say its a good play.

For what it is worth here is one point of view on the current market condition:

OUR MARVELOUS RECESSION METER

We use some very complex machinery for making economic predictions. At the moment, the overall readouts are pointing to a slowing U.S. economy.

However, when it comes to predicting recessions, there are only three gauges we pay close attention to. The first of these is industrial commodity prices. When recessions are about to begin, demand for commodities falls and so do prices. Last week, however, industrial commodities soared to an all-time high. That's a clear vote against recession, at least for another six months.

Our second gauge is an assortment of stock market technical indicators. Most important of these is the relative strength of small-cap stocks. Like the canary in the mine shaft, small-caps are the first to sense a recession coming on. However, the RS of the small-caps is close to all-time highs at the moment. So that's two votes against recession.

The final gauge is one we have worried about a little recently – unemployment insurance claims. Naturally, as the economy starts to recede workers get laid off and UI claims rise. In recent weeks, there has been an increase in UI claims. But last week they declined, so the UIC situation isn't pointing to a recession either, at least not strongly.

If a recession were likely, at least one of these three gauges would be in the danger zone. But at the moment, UIC is only in the amber zone, and the other two are green.

So, with no recession in the offing, we prefer to see the current market correction as a buying opportunity. If you see a promising stock, you can buy today and enjoy little market risk. Most likely, a rising market will benefit the purchase you make.

windsurfer, there was an article in WSJ a couple of months back stating that when the yield curve is inverted for a prolonged period of time, 6 out of 7 times a recession follows in 9-12 months..that puts it around end 2007.

CFC heading into red

I may join you in the CFC puts, but not today .. I would like to see it rally some more which I think will happen over the next few days.

I like the CFC puts as well...what about puts on HOG? Its tied to the middle class subprime thing in a way

that yen carry trade is looking real ugly again

Quote from: nullzero on March 14, 2007, 11:22:40 AM

Quote from: HomeBound on March 14, 2007, 11:19:35 AM
Careful with CFC, they are much stronger then LEND.  ???

Its relatively safe considering we havent tested the summer lows as of yet. Chances are CFC wont go bankrupt but they will most likely encounter very weak earnings and outlook. Considering that this market is looking more bearish then last summer correction and that CFC can very easily sink below 32s... I would say its a good play.

I hear ya NZ

I think you have alot of followers, just looking at the Jan 08 $25 puts, 2K vol today and 31K open interest.  Now they are way out of the money but alot of guys making that bet.  Like TradeStar says I'm looking for a little rally to knock some of these puts back a little, then may consider a play.

Quasi

I think the BIDU short is back on...BIDU broke through the 200sma with ease. GOOG is losing market share and will bring BIDU down with it. Also there is some click fraud going on with BIDU that we should hear more about. The yen carry trade is getting uglier and the asians wont like that one bit. I just bought BIDU puts again.

AMRN analysis:



If I had seen this was a biotech I wouldn't have wasted my time with it.

CSH looks like a great long stock to own for the portfolio david.

Some good buys
LMIA, WPCS, DXPE

ASTI .. now 70%  :o

Not sure if this will hold.  Sold most of my core position but holding some and bought more today $6.62 for daytrade.

Hey, this forum is a bit different. Where is the Stocks on Fire board?

MESA looks like a good short with gas prices going up this summer. Technically the stock has lower highs and lower lows

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 14, 2007, 01:53:45 PM
MESA looks like a good short with gas prices going up this summer. Technically the stock has lower highs and lower lows

Fundamentally cheap, I wouldn't short that one.

QuoteHey, this forum is a bit different. Where is the Stocks on Fire board?

Check this out kpusan: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9143.msg92163#msg92163

VIP short? At the 50 dma. Double top in place?  Thanks.

David....I think you're really on to something with China consumption going forward into the next year.  You're probably right the stock market is more worried about the American consumer as it should be....but will eventually focus more on the Chinese Consumer .  We may have a little more downside with Chinese stocks before they explode in the coming months. 

Olympics 2008 in Bejing, China. ;D

NVTL analysis:



Looking good :)

Way to much optimism from buyers today, particularly in home lenders stocks.

Quote from: HomeBound on March 14, 2007, 03:17:13 PM
Way to much optimism from buyers today, particularly in home lenders stocks.

Market is on course to take a big hit on thursday and friday.

Im under water some on those July 07 30 Puts for CFC but I have plenty of time for the trade to play out on my favor. I still think its an excellent time to enter CFC puts.

Bought some PUTS on CBOE volatility index $VIX this mornings..

Volatility is too high to be sustainable..

Man is ASTI on fire.  I almost bought after hours yesterday after I saw the spike.  Didn't think the news was this HUGE.

DSTI is moving in concert with ASTI.  Solar power has been a good sector the past couple of months.

Quote from: kslifka on March 14, 2007, 03:48:33 PM
Man is ASTI on fire.  I almost bought after hours yesterday after I saw the spike.  Didn't think the news was this HUGE.

DSTI is moving in concert with ASTI.  Solar power has been a good sector the past couple of months.

The news on ASTI is really BIG ! Basically this tiny company will be supported by NHY, a $39 B mammoth.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 03:53:41 PM

Quote from: kslifka on March 14, 2007, 03:48:33 PM
Man is ASTI on fire.  I almost bought after hours yesterday after I saw the spike.  Didn't think the news was this HUGE.

DSTI is moving in concert with ASTI.  Solar power has been a good sector the past couple of months.

The news on ASTI is really BIG ! Basically this tiny company will be supported by NHY, a $39 B mammoth.

If instead of saying how much it was up you just posted the news it would have been easier to spot the easy rally. My bet is it will go up another 30 - 50% tomorrow.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 03:56:49 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 03:53:41 PM

Quote from: kslifka on March 14, 2007, 03:48:33 PM
Man is ASTI on fire.  I almost bought after hours yesterday after I saw the spike.  Didn't think the news was this HUGE.

DSTI is moving in concert with ASTI.  Solar power has been a good sector the past couple of months.

The news on ASTI is really BIG ! Basically this tiny company will be supported by NHY, a $39 B mammoth.

If instead of saying how much it was up you just posted the news it would have been easier to spot the easy rally. My bet is it will go up another 30 - 50% tomorrow.

why do you think it will go up that much tomorrow? Hydro only paid 5.77 a share.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 14, 2007, 04:06:44 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 03:56:49 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 03:53:41 PM

Quote from: kslifka on March 14, 2007, 03:48:33 PM
Man is ASTI on fire.  I almost bought after hours yesterday after I saw the spike.  Didn't think the news was this HUGE.

DSTI is moving in concert with ASTI.  Solar power has been a good sector the past couple of months.

The news on ASTI is really BIG ! Basically this tiny company will be supported by NHY, a $39 B mammoth.

If instead of saying how much it was up you just posted the news it would have been easier to spot the easy rally. My bet is it will go up another 30 - 50% tomorrow.

why do you think it will go up that much tomorrow? Hydro only paid 5.77 a share.

That is why I didn't buy... I figured it would stall around $6.  I understand Hydro is looking to get a return on their investment...but when I saw it after hours it was already up to 6.20 yesterday.

I know a lot of people pack it up after hours...but I have to tell you a lot of news and earnings events get missed if you don't hang around.

ASTI is a $47 M market cap company operating in the red hot solar technology market. NHY, a $39 B market cap company, bought 23% of ASTI at a price 25% above the market price.

The price NHY bought isn't all that important, what matters most is NHY thinks ASTI's technology is very valuable. That is enough to take the stock to the hundreds of millions in market cap, as other zero revenues solar companies are trading.

Always compare the market caps when there are two companies involved, if a $39 B mammoth even talks to a less than $100 M market cap you know the rally on the micro cap is a sure thing.

Damn it, this would have been great for the Fire, it's a pity nothing like this came up a few days ago. The next time, tell me stories instead of % moves, everyday there are several stocks going up by more than 50%, penny stocks and all, but it's not everyday you find one that goes up for a sound and crystal clear motive like this!

GIGM analysis: (I'm waiting for 2 hours for the video to process, I'll leave it here this way and eventually it will be processed)



Indeed, GIGM is a spectacular long term holding in my view, independent of economic cycles.

I'll leave CHINA for tomorrow, see ya :)