3SOF

Public 3SOF Boards => Stock Talking Board => Topic started by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 09:22:34 AM

Poll
Question: Besides CHINA, which two stocks to cover today?
Option 1: CSH votes: 1
Option 2: FSLR votes: 3
Option 3: SFE votes: 1
Option 4: SLP votes: 1
Option 5: OFI votes: 4
Option 6: XING votes: 5
Option 7: LEND votes: 1
Option 8: PCU votes: 0
Option 9: SLV votes: 1
Option 10: EEM votes: 0
Option 11: FXI votes: 2
Option 12: CHL votes: 2
Option 13: FMCN votes: 1
Option 14: HMIN votes: 1
Option 15: HOKU votes: 2
Option 16: SOLF votes: 0
Title: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 09:22:34 AM
Good morning :)

I'll be busy changing positions around the open, but I'm looking for suggestions to cover today. Just two because I still have CHINA from yesterday, let's see if I can get on track. We'll run a poll with all suggestions (feel free to post several) at 10:30 AM, ET.

Also, feel free to post about other topics, the general market or strategies, for example.

Have a nice day :)
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 09:25:35 AM
I think there is way more downside, covering the shorts now would give up a chance at more profit. The PPI numbers came in much higher then expected and the market will react negative to it. I also believe your first assement is correct on the market and the way things are heading. Global market or not the U.S. goes into recession the whole market will suffer greatly.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 09:26:04 AM
BTW david whats your take on CSH?
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: AussieTrader on March 15, 2007, 09:28:06 AM
Another Solar play FSLR:

First Solar, Inc., incorporated on February 22, 2006, designs and manufactures solar modules using a thin film semiconductor technology. The Company's solar modules employ a thin layer of cadmium telluride (CdTe) semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. The Company's manufacturing process transforms a 2 feet x 4 feet sheet of glass into a complete solar module in less than three hours, using approximately 1% of the semiconductor material used to produce crystalline silicon solar modules.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: masternic35 on March 15, 2007, 09:39:15 AM
Hi David,

Do you have an update on ICE since the announced merger with BOT this morning ?

Thx

Niko
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: Windsurfer on March 15, 2007, 09:39:55 AM
Free Newsletter for what it is worth:

This week is quadruple witching week, which is something you need to be aware of. It happens four times a year on the 3rd Friday of March, June, September, and December (the month at the end of each quarter). Four different types of derivatives related to stocks expire: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire. You can even mark these weeks on your calendar.

These witching weeks are often very volatile, so remember this as a trader.

Also, we need to take profits on the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) and UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) which were some free picks I sent out a few weeks ago because I was very concerned about a downside in the markets, and I wanted to protect even my free newsletter subscribers from this.

Right now, the S&P 500 index just bounced exactly right off its upward trendline, which to me wouldn't be a problem, except I never like it when stocks fall from such high levels so fast. It may not look like it hit the trend on this picture, but in my own proprietary charts at home, it did indeed touch a short term trendline.

                         

Sure, small pullbacks along the way are great, and it keeps a stock moving upward at a nice pace, but when this happens, it means stocks have fallen onto sell signals (moving below previous support levels), so even when they rally, it only usually means the rally will be sold into (assuming you are even in).

So, I am not bullish by any means. In fact, I am never a bull or a bear. I just like to do what's working at the time. It's fantastic that these inverse ETF's are now available to make money in down markets without having to short an index. In fact these give double the move. For example, if the Dow is down 2%, we're up 4%.

It may take some more rallying for some more selling pressure to come in, but when stocks hit an intermediate term bottom like mid-day Wednesday, you never want to just be short because your "longer-term objective" is lower. It's okay to be short for a while like we were (well we were LONG a SHORT fund, so technically we were short the market even though we BOUGHT these ETF's) but you never want to be in the way of the bulls, even if the bulls are only out for a short run.

Good Trading,

Stocks and Options: http://www.traderreview.com
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 09:50:40 AM
Quote from: masternic35 on March 15, 2007, 09:39:15 AM
Hi David,

Do you have an update on ICE since the announced merger with BOT this morning ?

Thx

Niko

Yes, I wrote one right after the news was released, only for paying members, sorry.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 09:52:51 AM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 09:25:35 AM
I think there is way more downside, covering the shorts now would give up a chance at more profit. The PPI numbers came in much higher then expected and the market will react negative to it. I also believe your first assement is correct on the market and the way things are heading. Global market or not the U.S. goes into recession the whole market will suffer greatly.

I respect your opinion nullzero, and I know how right you were on those subprime lenders, I wish you good luck nullzero (but you can spice up your portfolio with some powerful small cap momentum+value plays ;))
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 09:55:32 AM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 09:26:04 AM
BTW david whats your take on CSH?

I see demand for that company's services rising. It looks like a nice pick on a superficial view. Will put it out on the poll.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 10:04:23 AM
The question is: should we spend time and effort looking for short picks?

The more I think of the long term the more I see the long term return on a short sale is lousy, even if one is right on direction.

I prefer to spend time looking for sound long term investments, in good or bad economic times. Because of the compounding effect of an investment.

Have a nice day :)
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 10:04:55 AM
I sold my CFC puts at the open and bought some calls. There are a ton of shorts on CFC and Fast Money said it was a buy so I expect it to squeeze hard at least 10%. The risk doctor said if it goes up a dollar it could jump to 45 real quick and I think he is right. I'll be back short after the squeeze is over.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: n1notesguy on March 15, 2007, 10:05:23 AM
Hello David,

I would be curious as to your take on:

SFE

SLP

and

getting back into OFI at this point.

Thank you.

Ken
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: ygtrdr on March 15, 2007, 10:07:06 AM
David, I think these rallies that we're seeing are purely technical for now. How long will they continue? April? May? I don't know but I do think we will see another big down leg before this bull resumes.

Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: ygtrdr on March 15, 2007, 10:11:04 AM
Also, I would like your opinion on buying back XING for the main. You stated your opinion on preferred shares has changed since you last sold and I think that XING is a great investment for '07 and '08. Thanks.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 10:14:46 AM
Prodigykid, I would not hope for 45 any time sun. 37-38 range would be nice for short/put entry again. LEND is fast approaching put entry again.
Good luck
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 10:20:07 AM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 10:14:46 AM
Prodigykid, I would not hope for 45 any time sun. 37-38 range would be nice for short/put entry again. LEND is fast approaching put entry again.
Good luck

ohh i agree its not going to 45 i just bought calls based on it going up a dollar today and tomorrow. at what point would you short LEND again? it looks like the squeeze may be about over soon.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 10:20:59 AM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 10:04:55 AM
I sold my CFC puts at the open and bought some calls. There are a ton of shorts on CFC and Fast Money said it was a buy so I expect it to squeeze hard at least 10%. The risk doctor said if it goes up a dollar it could jump to 45 real quick and I think he is right. I'll be back short after the squeeze is over.

Im holding im, this short squeeze is going to turn into a long blood bath quicker then you can blink an eye. Once more horrible fundamental news comes out. CFC should break the lows made in summer of 06 soon.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 10:23:27 AM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 10:20:59 AM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 10:04:55 AM
I sold my CFC puts at the open and bought some calls. There are a ton of shorts on CFC and Fast Money said it was a buy so I expect it to squeeze hard at least 10%. The risk doctor said if it goes up a dollar it could jump to 45 real quick and I think he is right. I'll be back short after the squeeze is over.

Im holding im, this short squeeze is going to turn into a long blood bath quicker then you can blink an eye. Once more horrible fundamental news comes out. CFC should break the lows made in summer of 06 soon.

I think your 100% right but the squeeze may last a couple of days. Until then I'll sit on the sidelines.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 10:24:48 AM
From yesterday:

PCU, SLV, EEM, FXI

CHL, FMCN, HMIN, HOKU, SOLF
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 10:34:08 AM
If LEND short covering will drive rebound to $10 look for sharp reversal and new short frenzy.

Unknown factor for all lenders is possibility of the rate cut by the feds, I believe this is a major factor driving current rebound.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 10:35:38 AM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 10:34:08 AM
If LEND short covering will drive rebound to $10 look for sharp reversal and new short frenzy.

Unknown factor for all lenders is possibility of the rate cut by the feds, I believe this is a major factor driving current rebound.

Or else everybody knows that story already.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: johnwho44 on March 15, 2007, 10:35:59 AM
CSV?
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 10:51:20 AM
Quote from: johnwho44 on March 15, 2007, 10:35:59 AM
CSV?

Keep that one in mind and request it again tomorrow johnwho44, nice chart :)
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 11:00:51 AM
Ok, the winners were XING and OFI, exactly my two votes ;D

I wish you good trades!
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: TraderStar on March 15, 2007, 11:46:31 AM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 10:23:27 AM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 10:20:59 AM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 10:04:55 AM
I sold my CFC puts at the open and bought some calls. There are a ton of shorts on CFC and Fast Money said it was a buy so I expect it to squeeze hard at least 10%. The risk doctor said if it goes up a dollar it could jump to 45 real quick and I think he is right. I'll be back short after the squeeze is over.

Im holding im, this short squeeze is going to turn into a long blood bath quicker then you can blink an eye. Once more horrible fundamental news comes out. CFC should break the lows made in summer of 06 soon.

I think your 100% right but the squeeze may last a couple of days. Until then I'll sit on the sidelines.

I'm waiting for it to bounce into the 37-ish range, then I will get some puts with a tight stop.

JOYG has the sort of chart I like to play with options .. buy a call or two with nice tight stop.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 11:55:12 AM
What time do the Euro markets close? The markets have dropped right before there close the last couple of days. I was thinking of buying some SPY puts for a play on that.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 12:04:58 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 11:55:12 AM
What time do the Euro markets close? The markets have dropped right before there close the last couple of days. I was thinking of buying some SPY puts for a play on that.

They closed 34 minutes ago. Hour changes in Europe this weekend.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: TraderStar on March 15, 2007, 12:10:10 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 11:55:12 AM
What time do the Euro markets close? The markets have dropped right before there close the last couple of days. I was thinking of buying some SPY puts for a play on that.

There is a cool little free world clock program that you can put on desktop and it will keep track of any timezones you want.  I have it set for AZ, NM, NY, UK, Europe and Japan.  http://www.dualitysoft.com/dsclock
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 12:35:04 PM
LEND is getting squeezed hard today. I bought some calls about 2 hours ago at .35 and now there .95  ;D
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: tokyopua on March 15, 2007, 12:37:33 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 11:55:12 AM
What time do the Euro markets close? The markets have dropped right before there close the last couple of days. I was thinking of buying some SPY puts for a play on that.

Heard something on CNBC today that sounded like big players were trying to get the S&P to 1400 by tomorrow morning, not sure how that would work if true...

BTW, how did you make that $2000 in ten minutes on your last SPY puts?
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 12:44:56 PM
how much of affect do you think the lenders getting squeezed is moving up the market? im wondering if the market will open up tomorrow then close in the red? any thoughts.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 12:55:56 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 12:44:56 PM
how much of affect do you think the lenders getting squeezed is moving up the market? im wondering if the market will open up tomorrow then close in the red? any thoughts.

I think alot of short squeezing is the reason the market is green today. To bottom fisher longs is not a good thing.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 01:10:45 PM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders

Stocks like LEND, CFC, DHI, PHM, BAC, GS keeping are keeping the market afloat in green by running up on short squeezes. Once its apperant the mortgage problem is not getting better anytime and only getting worse the market will fall.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: Windsurfer on March 15, 2007, 01:23:45 PM
Just bought NVTL.  Good pick David! ;D

Verizon Wireless Offers First ExpressCard by Novatel Wireless to Take Advantage of New Faster Wireless Broadband Network
Thursday March 15, 8:30 am ET
V740 ExpressCard Features Superior Wireless Broadband Connectivity for Verizon Wireless Customers

SAN DIEGO and BASKING RIDGE, N.J., March 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Novatel Wireless, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVTL - News), a leading provider of wireless broadband access solutions, and Verizon Wireless, operator of the nation's most reliable wireless broadband network, today announced the commercial availability of the V740 ExpressCard(TM). The world's first ExpressCard to operate on Verizon Wireless' faster wireless broadband network, based on Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO) Revision A (Rev. A) technology, the V740 offers advanced data speeds and connectivity, lower latency and quick, reliable access to important information.

Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 01:10:45 PM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders

Stocks like LEND, CFC, DHI, PHM, BAC, GS keeping are keeping the market afloat in green by running up on short squeezes. Once its apperant the mortgage problem is not getting better anytime and only getting worse the market will fall.


tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 01:51:53 PM
Quote from: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 01:10:45 PM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders

Stocks like LEND, CFC, DHI, PHM, BAC, GS keeping are keeping the market afloat in green by running up on short squeezes. Once its apperant the mortgage problem is not getting better anytime and only getting worse the market will fall.



tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

that means LEND is going up
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nutsterrt on March 15, 2007, 02:00:09 PM
Quote from: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM

tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

I think you'd be hard pressed to find shares to short right now. I'm kicking myself for getting stopped out at 7.50 this morning.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 02:02:05 PM
Quote from: nutsterrt on March 15, 2007, 02:00:09 PM
Quote from: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM

tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

I think you'd be hard pressed to find shares to short right now. I'm kicking myself for getting stopped out at 7.50 this morning.


???? why you just saved yourself a ton of money...you really think LEND will drop that much
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 02:03:27 PM
Buy some lend puts to play the downside
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 02:12:37 PM
LEND is almost 120% up from it low. I would say it will succumb to gravity >:D
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007-voting NO on shorts
Post by: Hungaryson on March 15, 2007, 02:13:51 PM
New here...

I recall a successful trader named Jack Carter from Louisville CO, state that as a whole stocks typically fall 4 X faster than a typical stock rise. Of couurse this means that shorts can have substantial volatility. I don't know what statistics he was citing to back his claim.

I say it is better to stay on the sidelines with mostly cash in a broadly falling market.

The trend is our friend.



Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: bocasva on March 15, 2007, 02:15:05 PM
Quote from: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 01:10:45 PM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders

Stocks like LEND, CFC, DHI, PHM, BAC, GS keeping are keeping the market afloat in green by running up on short squeezes. Once its apperant the mortgage problem is not getting better anytime and only getting worse the market will fall.


tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

I also tried putting short orders at 11.30  all morning long 'cause I sensed the gap was to be closed but couldn't find shares available at scottrade,etrade,zecco......that sucks..
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 02:18:49 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 02:03:27 PM
Buy some lend puts to play the downside

don't have an option account with scottrade . i do with tradking but i am all tied up right now
max
bummer
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 02:20:16 PM
Quote from: bocasva on March 15, 2007, 02:15:05 PM
Quote from: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 01:38:35 PM
Quote from: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 01:10:45 PM
Quote from: HomeBound on March 15, 2007, 01:01:28 PM
We may close in red today. Not much rum left to go up for lenders

Stocks like LEND, CFC, DHI, PHM, BAC, GS keeping are keeping the market afloat in green by running up on short squeezes. Once its apperant the mortgage problem is not getting better anytime and only getting worse the market will fall.


tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

I also tried putting short orders at 11.30  all morning long 'cause I sensed the gap was to be closed but couldn't find shares available at scottrade,etrade,zecco......that sucks..


i dont know if this is true but i heard brokers like scottrade will buy stock to sell short...so maybe that was the rally we were seeing...just a guess....i know i've called scottrade to short a stock that i couldn't online...give that a shot it worked for me
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: rickjust on March 15, 2007, 02:27:32 PM
Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 15, 2007, 02:20:16 PM




tried to short lend just now at scottrade . no` shares available .
maxi

I also tried putting short orders at 11.30  all morning long 'cause I sensed the gap was to be closed but couldn't find shares available at scottrade,etrade,zecco......that sucks..

[/quote]

i dont know if this is true but i heard brokers like scottrade will buy stock to sell short...so maybe that was the rally we were seeing...just a guess....i know i've called scottrade to short a stock that i couldn't online...give that a shot it worked for me
[/quote]

i am in australia right now and it is 530am so i will let it pass .
and i had a great entry at 1045 so i will eave it for now .
thanks for the tip on scottrade though
maxi
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: mbaugh on March 15, 2007, 02:30:43 PM
David, in regards to ASTI, do you think we have to wait out for the consoldation phase, I bought today at 8.86 and damn I hate being down already, same thing happened with my order on CIMT, the only difference is it seems ASTI is falling faster.  With ASTI having such a low market cap I was hoping it would rise to at least $100 million market cap before pulling back some.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 02:34:19 PM
CHINA analysis:



The conclusion is the same I had when I sold the stock, CHINA will at best have an average long term performance in my view.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: tokyopua on March 15, 2007, 02:35:14 PM
Quote from: mbaugh on March 15, 2007, 02:30:43 PM
David, in regards to ASTI, do you think we have to wait out for the consoldation phase, I bought today at 8.86 and damn I hate being down already, same thing happened with my order on CIMT, the only difference is it seems ASTI is falling faster.  With ASTI having such a low market cap I was hoping it would rise to at least $100 million market cap before pulling back some.

I am curious about this play too.  I dipped a toe in the water on this one too at 8.95, though not a big position as I was worried about the 10ema being so far behind.  I guess what I am curious about is if you could elaborate on maybe other examples you have seen where a large company buys a stake in a small company and it was really positive, as that seemed to really excite you yesterday.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 02:38:59 PM
Quote from: mbaugh on March 15, 2007, 02:30:43 PM
David, in regards to ASTI, do you think we have to wait out for the consoldation phase, I bought today at 8.86 and damn I hate being down already, same thing happened with my order on CIMT, the only difference is it seems ASTI is falling faster.  With ASTI having such a low market cap I was hoping it would rise to at least $100 million market cap before pulling back some.

You should focus on the long term motives to buy/hold the stock. If you want to discuss fundamental long term estimates I'm all for it, but save me from thinking about 5% up or down moves in small caps, because those movements are unpredictable and their analysis is useless.

Thank you :) 
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 02:52:06 PM
QuoteI am curious about this play too.  I dipped a toe in the water on this one too at 8.95, though not a big position as I was worried about the 10ema being so far behind.  I guess what I am curious about is if you could elaborate on maybe other examples you have seen where a large company buys a stake in a small company and it was really positive, as that seemed to really excite you yesterday.

Good question Tokyo, you know there's a proper thread when all questions are answered everyday, right?
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: yukiii on March 15, 2007, 02:59:30 PM
David take a look at WPCS

Thanks
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: tokyopua on March 15, 2007, 03:07:27 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 02:52:06 PM
QuoteI am curious about this play too.  I dipped a toe in the water on this one too at 8.95, though not a big position as I was worried about the 10ema being so far behind.  I guess what I am curious about is if you could elaborate on maybe other examples you have seen where a large company buys a stake in a small company and it was really positive, as that seemed to really excite you yesterday.

Good question Tokyo, you know there's a proper thread when all questions are answered everyday, right?

Im usually pretty good about posting in the right threads, but I am a bit confused I guess since ASTI is in this portfolio too.  Anyway, reposted in the other ASTI thread, so hope that is where you wanted me to post it.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 03:10:16 PM
Quote from: yukiii on March 15, 2007, 02:59:30 PM
David take a look at WPCS

Thanks

What's the story yukiii? To take a serious look I need two hours, it would help to write a quick answer if I knew why you're interested in WPCS.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 03:13:57 PM
QuoteIm usually pretty good about posting in the right threads, but I am a bit confused I guess since ASTI is in this portfolio too.  Anyway, reposted in the other ASTI thread, so hope that is where you wanted me to post it.

Yes, you're good at it. This no longer is the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio message board Tokyo. Now it is the "Stock Talking Board".

hehe, I was here talking to my wife, saying, "Damn, I bought a stock today and it is down 7%". And she said: "what's new? Those usually are your best picks, you're no lucky man to buy a stock that goes straight up!"

Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 03:30:30 PM
LEND traded the float 4 times today. How is that possible? Remember when HOKU traded more than the float. Look at that chart and I think we can learn from it. I know there were a lot of people trying to short today that couldn't and probably will short tomorrow sending it down. Just a thought but I think LEND will be lower in the future.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: Hungaryson on March 15, 2007, 03:31:14 PM
David:

New subscriber here...

On an issue like ASTI, I waited and got in at 8.33. I believe that you are in ~8.90
Where are you putting your initial stop loss on an issue like this? If you had put it at 7% you would have been stopped out.

Do you go with 10% or 15%?? How much "wiggle" room do you allow on your stops?

I would appreciate your feedback.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: phabrux on March 15, 2007, 03:39:58 PM
Hi David,
am I in the right threads for posting this question about a another old friend(WDPD.ob)?

Now ---->    WYY.ob

News are good but the chart locks pretty miserable, bearish to say the least!
What do you think David?

Widepoint reports Q4 revs rose 80% YoY to $7.2 mln (WYY) 1.77 +0.00 : Co announces financial results for the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2006. Revenue for fiscal year 2006 increased 35% to $18.0 mln from $13.3 mln in 2005. Revenue for the fourth quarter increased to $7.2 mln, a gain of 80% over the $4.0 mln in revenue in the comparable period in 2005. The increase in revenue was primarily the result of contract awards issued to the co for work related to Homeland Security Presidential Directive No. 12 (HSPD-12) and further sales growth from the continuing adoption and support of the Department of Defense external certificate authority program. The co generated approx $508,000 in positive cash flow from operations in 2006, up 107% from $246,000 in 2005. For 2006, the co reported a net loss of $435,000, or $0.01 per share, compared to a net loss for 2005 of $7.4 mln, or $0.30 per share. The net loss for 2005 included several non-recurring non-cash charges related to stock issuance and preferred stock financing.

Thanks



Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 03:46:00 PM
Quote from: Hungaryson on March 15, 2007, 03:31:14 PM
David:

New subscriber here...

On an issue like ASTI, I waited and got in at 8.33. I believe that you are in ~8.90
Where are you putting your initial stop loss on an issue like this? If you had put it at 7% you would have been stopped out.

Do you go with 10% or 15%?? How much "wiggle" room do you allow on your stops?

I would appreciate your feedback.

Hi Hungaryson, thanks for your question :)

I don't use stops in a traditional way. However I have very rigid money management rules that I always respect. Let me tell you how it works:

I always buy a fixed proportion of capital in each different stock, in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)'s case it is 6.66% of capital. This way, to be full invested, I need 15 different holdings, which diminishes risk. I never average up or down on the initial position.

In terms of limiting risk in one single position, I use the rule of thumb of never losing more than 2% of total equity in one single trade. So, since I invest 6.66% of capital in each holding, not to lose more than 2% of total equity in it, I can't let it slip more than 33.3% than my buying price. However, I usually know that I made a mistake much before this and cut losses quickly when I have to.

I never change the trading plan on an intraday basis, whatever happens to the stock price. I always update the analysis when the market is closed, everyday, and adjust the trading plan for the next day.

In a week you'll be familiar with how everything works. For example, there's a thread for each holding where updates are posted and questions are asked, not here, but since this is your first day, there's no problem at all (but some people won't like positions being disclosed on this free board - this can't happen in the future).

Welcome Hungaryson :)
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 03:54:02 PM
Quote from: phabrux on March 15, 2007, 03:39:58 PM
Hi David,
am I in the right threads for posting this question about a another old friend?

WYY.ob

News are good but the chart locks pretty miserable, bearish to say the least!
What do you think David?

Widepoint reports Q4 revs rose 80% YoY to $7.2 mln (WYY) 1.77 +0.00 : Co announces financial results for the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2006. Revenue for fiscal year 2006 increased 35% to $18.0 mln from $13.3 mln in 2005. Revenue for the fourth quarter increased to $7.2 mln, a gain of 80% over the $4.0 mln in revenue in the comparable period in 2005. The increase in revenue was primarily the result of contract awards issued to the co for work related to Homeland Security Presidential Directive No. 12 (HSPD-12) and further sales growth from the continuing adoption and support of the Department of Defense external certificate authority program. The co generated approx $508,000 in positive cash flow from operations in 2006, up 107% from $246,000 in 2005. For 2006, the co reported a net loss of $435,000, or $0.01 per share, compared to a net loss for 2005 of $7.4 mln, or $0.30 per share. The net loss for 2005 included several non-recurring non-cash charges related to stock issuance and preferred stock financing.

Thanks

Hi phabrux, is WWY old WDPT.OB?

I never understood that stock ... an hedge fund manager once sent me a report about it, telling I wasn't seeing the truth about WDPT, I read it all and felt the same, couldn't see why it was up. Now going down, so, it's natural to me.

As I'm reading the news it looks interesting, but it would take me two hours to "see the truth" about it, I have no time now, sorry. 
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: WallStreetnBio on March 15, 2007, 04:21:05 PM
Dave I really think you should take a look at CHL and SLV for the main. They're not exactly on fire or smaller market caps but they have solid strong growth. Better than having free cash laying around.

(CHL) China Mobile Limited provides mobile telecommunications services in Mainland China. This market hasn't even been tapped yet. All those foreigners are going to be using CHL at the olympics.

(SLV) Reflects the price of silver owned by the trust. All the metals were up today because of the demand from China. Here is a great article that sums up the demand for silver. Silver may shine brightest amoung metals this year (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/cbsm/SIG=12jt053d7/*http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/silver-may-shine-brightest-among/story.aspx?guid=%7BD29D0AED%2D18F8%2D4BB3%2D9A97%2D94FB729AF9A6%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo)

Anybody know the ETF that tracks 20% gold, 20% silver, 20% platinum, 20% uranium???...something like that

RIO is also one worth looking at for a metals play.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nicknite20 on March 15, 2007, 05:18:28 PM
CEF is a fund with 50% Gold, 50% Silver...

You can also buy it in CAD to benefit from a falling USD.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: nullzero on March 15, 2007, 05:48:44 PM
LEND is dropping like a fly in AH. Im glad I loaded some puts today when it was trading in the 9.60s.
Title: Re: Session of 03/15/2007
Post by: yukiii on March 15, 2007, 06:10:33 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on March 15, 2007, 03:10:16 PM
Quote from: yukiii on March 15, 2007, 02:59:30 PM
David take a look at WPCS

Thanks

What's the story yukiii? To take a serious look I need two hours, it would help to write a quick answer if I knew why you're interested in WPCS.

Thanks.

WPCS International Inc. is an engineering company that focuses on the implementation requirements of wireless technology and specialty communication systems. The company provides a range of services including site design, product integration, security, structured cabling, construction and project management.
Earnings 2006  .58  2007 .73  2008 .91
Down on low volume at 200 ma will pop on Earnings.

Feb 27 9:02AM        WPCS Announces $2.4 Million in New Contracts   PR Newswire
Feb 20 9:02AM        WPCS Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire Voacolo Electric   PR Newswire
Feb 12 9:20AM        WPCS International to buy wireless solutions provider   Reuters
Feb 12 9:02AM        WPCS Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire ATC International   PR Newswire
Feb 1 9:14AM        WPCS to buy 60 percent stake in Chinese company   Reuters
Feb 1 9:02AM        WPCS Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire Majority Interest in China Based Taian AGS...   PR Newswire
Jan 30 9:02AM        $3.1 Million in New Contracts Awarded to WPCS   PR Newswire
Jan 9 9:02AM        WPCS Announces $6.5 Million in New Contracts