3SOF

Good morning :)

I'm now mostly long small cap specific stories and I'm glad I went that path. The SPY is still stuck between the $137.33 and the $141.69 key support and resistance levels.

From the information I've been collecting I believe that over time, the SPY will end up breaking this range on the upside.

Today I'm going to make video analysis on XING and OFI, and we'll make a poll more towards the end of the session with your suggestions, so I can cover them in the morning (my productivity is a lot higher in the morning in Europe - also youtube.com works much better at that time).

I've read some suggestion's from Friday's thread, please copy/paste them to today's thread.

Have a nice day :)

TSSW.ob up on financial results.  Low volume stock but only a $7million market cap

TouchStone Software Corporation Reports Full Year 2006 Revenue of $3,219,034 and Earnings of 6 Cents per Share - Best Results Since 1994
Monday March 19, 7:00 am ET

NORTH ANDOVER, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TouchStone Software Corporation (OTCBB:TSSW - News) today announced that for the year 2006, net revenue was $3,219,034. On a GAAP basis, TouchStone Software's 2006 net earnings were $724,182, or $0.06 per share diluted. As a percentage of sales, gross profit margin for 2006 improved to 93% as compared to 86% in 2005. Net operating margin for 2006 was 22%.

Financial Highlights

    * TouchStone Software's revenue for the 2006 calendar year grew by 99.3% over 2005 results
    * TouchStone Software ended the year with cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments of $1,109,189, an increase of $703,236 from the 2005 year end
    * Driver Agent's total active subscribers grew in excess of 100% quarter over quarter for each quarter of 2006

Financial Outlook
# TouchStone Software expects continued strong financial results as a result of rapid new subscriber sales and renewals of existing subscribers for its Driver Agent service as well as renewed consumer interest in BIOS Upgrades

"Driver Agent continues to pace TouchStone's rapid transition to a profitable online network of Internet properties," said Jason Raza, president and chief executive officer of TouchStone Software Corporation. "The phenomenal success of Driver Agent has spurred us to explore the migration of other software products to a similar business model. In addition, Microsoft's recent release of the Vista operating system has created an increased demand for BIOS Upgrades as well as generated significant new web traffic to our recently launched www.vista-agent.com website."

May be worth jumping back into SYX.  SYX will announce 4Q results tomorrow.  Up 7% today on anticipation, at 23.11.  Could see much higher tomorrow. 

David and others on the board..when you have a moment, could you look at the following stock, and let me know whether its worth an investment?

CAMTEK Ltd. (CAMT)

Brief profile: Camtek, Ltd. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of automatic optical inspection (AOI) systems and related products. Its AOI systems are computerized systems, which optically inspect various types of electronic product components for defects caused during the manufacturing process. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Migdal Ha Emek, Israel. Camtek, Ltd. is a subsidiary of Priortech, Ltd.

Fundamentals

Forward P/E: 6.97
Trailing P/E: 8.03

Cash: 29.35m
Debt: 5m

Qtrly Rev Growth (YoY): 48.2%
Qtrly Inc Growth (YoY): 175.3%

They seem to be continuosly enhancing their product mix, and reporting new contracts.

Seems to be a good solid company for the long term.

They report earnings tomorrow though..so might be a bit volatile in the interim.

Thanks for feedback,
Nick

TSSW.OB is trading at $0.63, since EPS on a fully diluted basis was $0.06 it is trading at about 10 times trailing earnings. It will probably run some more, very low volume though. Good luck :)

David what do you think of CSH for long?

MA and LEND as shorts?

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 19, 2007, 10:05:05 AM
May be worth jumping back into SYX.  SYX will announce 4Q results tomorrow.  Up 7% today on anticipation, at 23.11.  Could see much higher tomorrow. 

Yes, I'm expecting $1.4 EPS for full year 2006. I wonder how a consumer slowdown in the US will play out on SYX's revenues and profits. Anyway, great long term holding.

Yep, CAMT looks cheap considering the trailing EPS multiple of just 8. I wonder why it fell so much in December, 21st, 2007. Will put it up on the poll Nick, no time to make a full review now.

But I'll put you some questions:

- What happened in December 21st, 2007?
- Do you think there will be growth going forward? The market seems to be pricing in a slowdown in revenues, any explanation for that?

Thanks :)

Quote from: nullzero on March 19, 2007, 10:13:30 AM
David what do you think of CSH for long?

MA and LEND as shorts?

CSH looks interesting from a technical perspective, trading around the 200 days support level. I'm curious about their business model, quite profitable. Already a $1.2 B market cap.

MA as a short ... I believe I already covered that one, let me see ... here it is:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9110.msg91371#msg91371

I'm not that bearish on the general market, in fact I'm a cautious bull now, I don't see much fun in shorting overall or in shorting MA in particular.

As for LEND, indeed the chart looks bearish. Q4 2006 was already a mess. You're betting on bankruptcy and indeed that may very well happen. Good luck :)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 19, 2007, 10:23:16 AM
Yep, CAMT looks cheap considering the trailing EPS multiple of just 8. I wonder why it fell so much in December, 21st, 2007. Will put it up on the poll Nick, no time to make a full review now.

But I'll put you some questions:

- What happened in December 21st, 2007?
- Do you think there will be growth going forward? The market seems to be pricing in a slowdown in revenues, any explanation for that?

Thanks :)

Fair point David, they guided lower in Dec for Q4 revenues. Maybe its better to see how the report comes out tomorrow..

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061221/ukth020.html?.v=38

David,

You should take a look at SIGA - I know you hate Biotech but this chart is a beauty and just broke out of trading range this AM

David, I'm looking for your past review of ZROS, i know you did one, but I can't find it.  I realize the company may dilute and has zero revenues, but it keeps moving up, I'm considering a small play for a quick gain.  It seems that the hot plays on the OB board keeps moving up until over $5 or $6 just like evcc.

Never mind, I found it on the stocks covered list!

David,
What about URRE,
- all time high today on  earnings report -  revs up 350% Q4  06/05 on higher sales of Uranium and much better avg price. 
- They Opened a second mine in 06 which is producing well
- Q4 06 eps loss of .05 vs Q4 05 of .50
- Co produced 259,000 pounds in 05, projects over 400,000 pounds in 07

Quote from: KCScott on March 19, 2007, 11:16:10 AM
David,

You should take a look at SIGA - I know you hate Biotech but this chart is a beauty and just broke out of trading range this AM

Hi KCScott, nice to see you :)

I dislike SIGA's chart, story and fundamentals. Anyway, nice gains for holders. In a year I see it down 50% plus (because it's a biotech and smallpox exists in only two laboratories, one in the US and another in Russia. The speculation is terrorists put their hands on the virus after USSR collapsed. I don't believe this - the speculative theme is too weak and if Republicans go down, I believe so will money for smallpox vaccines - a disease extinguished in 1971).

But I can be wrong.

David,

What do you think about NETC?  They are in the Broadcasting & Cable TV industry; their growth rate is greater than 95% of its peers.

03/14/07 a clip from a PR:
"Last month, Telmex said it is in talks to buy Peruvian cable TV company Boga Comunicaciones SA, which has about 233,000 customers. Telmex already owns Brazil's largest pay TV operator Net Servicos de Comunicacao SA's (NETC), which is in the process of acquiring rival Vivax."

Cheers,

Quote from: ravenquork on March 19, 2007, 11:41:18 AM
David,
What about URRE,
- all time high today on  earnings report -  revs up 350% Q4  06/05 on higher sales of Uranium and much better avg price. 
- They Opened a second mine in 06 which is producing well
- Q4 06 eps loss of .05 vs Q4 05 of .50
- Co produced 259,000 pounds in 05, projects over 400,000 pounds in 07

Brrr, its valuation looks insane, I see what, $8.6 M in revenues for a $430 M market cap that has been diluting shareholder's value in a big way?

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=urre&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr

I believe the stock will pullback and close below the $7.94 resistance level, I'm sure there are better uranium plays outthere, this one looks massively overvalued trading at 50 times revenues.

Hi Dave,

with what you just said, could that be, than URRE  fit perfectly as a shorter candidate in a few weeks time?

Quote from: labatts6254 on March 19, 2007, 12:14:40 PM
David,

What do you think about NETC?  They are in the Broadcasting & Cable TV industry; their growth rate is greater than 95% of its peers.

03/14/07 a clip from a PR:
"Last month, Telmex said it is in talks to buy Peruvian cable TV company Boga Comunicaciones SA, which has about 233,000 customers. Telmex already owns Brazil's largest pay TV operator Net Servicos de Comunicacao SA's (NETC), which is in the process of acquiring rival Vivax."

Cheers,

NETC is already a $3.6 B market cap company ... but it looks interesting, I'll put it on the poll.

Quote from: phabrux on March 19, 2007, 12:34:26 PM
Hi Dave,

with what you just said, could that be, than URRE  fit perfectly as a shorter candidate in a few weeks time?

I don't know about that, just made a quick review. I don't recommend shorting in general, the long term estimate for a short sale is always lousy. Shorting is for short term traders and those are doomed to be the losers over the long term.

I'd rather look for outstanding long term small cap growth stories, I believe my time and money is better spent there.

You can see I keep adjusting my strategic views of the market as, like everybody else here, I try to learn more of this hard game.

hi dave,
what you think about CYTR?

thanks

hi Dave any thoughts on AGIX

XING video analysis:

Hi David

can you look at this thing  ISH   :)

It looks good

Quote from: NERO on March 19, 2007, 01:27:41 PM
hi dave,
what you think about CYTR?

thanks

I had to go pick up my kid at karate, CYTR?

Let me take a 1 minute look on it :)

Nahhh, it's a $300 M plus market cap company without any revenues and having huge losses on a quarterly basis. I bet recent news is great, but that seems priced in, since buyers are paying more than $300 M for an expectation without real revenues and profits, at least not for now.

Chart looks great but I wouldn't chase it, look at this "diluter":

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cytr&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Qtr

Quote from: mooney on March 19, 2007, 01:48:10 PM
hi Dave any thoughts on AGIX

AGIX, let me see, down 60% today on the following news:

• AtheroGenics: Drug trial fails to meet endpoint (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070319/1433843.html?.v=1)
bizjournals.com (Mon 3:37pm)

This is one of the reasons why I never touch biotech companies, 90% of them are lousy investments.

AGIX is now a $122 M market cap that lost $67 M in 2006 alone. Book value is ($153 M) - that means negative. To me it should go down another 90%. But it can bounce. Good luck :)

Quote from: Garoh on March 19, 2007, 03:18:16 PM
Hi David

can you look at this thing  ISH   :)

It looks good

ISH's volume today is just 7,900 shares Garoh ... but let me take a quick look at the fundamentals. $113 M maritime transportation company, it looks very interesting, trading at 7.6 times 2006 EPS :) Will put it on the poll.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 19, 2007, 03:59:23 PM

Quote from: Garoh on March 19, 2007, 03:18:16 PM
Hi David

can you look at this thing  ISH   :)

It looks good

ISH's volume today is just 7,900 shares Garoh ... but let me take a quick look at the fundamentals. $113 M maritime transportation company, it looks very interesting, trading at 7.6 times 2006 EPS :) Will put it on the poll.

David it will be a good stock tom add to the Main Portfolio ..

No risk with this one and as you know it's trading at 7 times of the 2006 EPS  ;D

I bought this stock 3 months ago at 13.50   >> look at the chart it's really interesting ..

Quote from: mbaugh on March 19, 2007, 11:32:54 AM
David, I'm looking for your past review of ZROS, i know you did one, but I can't find it.  I realize the company may dilute and has zero revenues, but it keeps moving up, I'm considering a small play for a quick gain.  It seems that the hot plays on the OB board keeps moving up until over $5 or $6 just like evcc.

Never mind, I found it on the stocks covered list!

I hope you didn't do what I highlighted in bold mbaugh, since the stock that "keeps moving up" finished down 6%. I wouldn't enter the game of going against fundamentals for a "quick profit".

Anyway, big gain for the early buyers ... I hope you're not in, if you are, good luck :)

In about 1 hour time I'll put a poll here with the 12 stocks mentioned on this thread and another 8 that I'll pick from my technical filter when Reuters Data Link updates the database. That poll will run until 2 AM ET, so there will be plenty of time to pick the 3 winners for tomorrow's more in depth video analysis.

(I still need to post OFI today, it's almost ready)

Thanks for your participation :)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 19, 2007, 04:12:38 PM

Quote from: mbaugh on March 19, 2007, 11:32:54 AM
David, I'm looking for your past review of ZROS, i know you did one, but I can't find it.  I realize the company may dilute and has zero revenues, but it keeps moving up, I'm considering a small play for a quick gain.  It seems that the hot plays on the OB board keeps moving up until over $5 or $6 just like evcc.

Never mind, I found it on the stocks covered list!

I hope you didn't do what I highlighted in bold mbaugh, since the stock that "keeps moving up" finished down 6%. I wouldn't enter the game of going against fundamentals for a "quick profit".

Anyway, big gain for the early buyers ... I hope you're not in, if you are, good luck :)

Don't worry David, I didn't buy it.  I was just watching it and because of your review, I decided against it.  I was just frustrated since I'm down on ASTI and I was tired of watching other stocks go up but mine.  Thanks for the response and your concern.

OFI analysis:

Thanks for the analysis on OFI David..so is this a SELL? or a HOLD?

The long term price traget doesnt look that attractive..

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 19, 2007, 06:44:48 PM
Thanks for the analysis on OFI David..so is this a SELL? or a HOLD?

The long term price traget doesnt look that attractive..

It's a "not so great as a long term holding". But it could very well double over the short term, which would then turn into a sell. I guess this analysis translates into a "hold" until you find a better one.

Ok, the poll is rolling, you have until 2 AM ET to vote. Please pay attention that for some of the stocks I already wrote a short comment (on this thread) and my take probably won't change in a more in depth analysis.

See you tomorrow :)

David, wanna see a gem of a chart?... ICAD

Quote from: gwfox on March 19, 2007, 11:42:52 PM
David, wanna see a gem of a chart?... ICAD

Yeah, thanks for the tip gwfox, I saw that one too but walked away when I saw it was a biotechnology company, I dislike the sector.

SYX analysis:



Unfortunately Q4 results were disappointing. I don't like the special dividend idea, it shows they're afraid of investing results in their activity, perhaps because they see the consumption slowdown coming.