3SOF

Hello there :)

I'm still going for a coffee so probably I won't be here right at the open, but I'm not buying or selling anything, so no big problem.

I made the first of the 3 most voted analysis of yesterday's poll, which was SYX and you can find that analysis on yesterday's thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9183.msg93027#msg93027). Over the afternoon I'll make analysis on GTW and ONT.

I'll also try to drop a few lines on stocks that you bring up for the poll that we'll run after the market's close. I'll also add some stocks coming up on my technical filter.

The more stocks I study the more I see that two fundamental components drive stocks over the long term: revenue growth and net profit margin.

We'll talk, have a nice day :)

Hi David, at some point, I would like your take on ACH.

This was my analysis:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9132.0

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 20, 2007, 09:29:29 AM
Hi David, at some point, I would like your take on ACH.

This was my analysis:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9132.0

First of all let me say that you made a great effort in studying ACH, you deserve a 5 point boost to your rating!

That 25:1 share/ADR ratio and the numbers presented in RMB instead of USD are a bit confusing, and maybe that's why there's an opportunity there.

Net profit margin and revenue expansion look awesome!

I'll put this one for the poll, but don't worry, even if it isn't one of the 3 most voted, I'll cover it, thanks for the tip :)

HRSH

Up 47% on earnings.  Small Market cap.  Turned profitable:

Hirsch Reports 150% Increase in 2006 Net Income and Tripling of Operating Profits
Tuesday March 20, 8:30 am ET
New Products and Strong Balance Sheet Provide Opportunity for 2007

HAUPPAUGE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hirsch International Corp. (NASDAQ: HRSH; "Hirsch"), the leading provider of advanced commercial embroidery systems and support services in the U.S. and the recently appointed exclusive distributor of MHM screenprinting equipment and support services in North America, reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and eleven months ended December 31, 2006. Hirsch has changed its fiscal year end from January 28th to December 31st, which is reflected in the Company's reporting of financial results for the eleven months ended December 31, 2006 as compared to the twelve months ended January 28, 2006.

Highlights of the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 results are as follows:

    * Net sales increased $3.2 million to $15.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, as compared to $12.0 million for last year's fourth quarter which ended January 28, 2006. For the eleven months ended December 31, 2006, net sales were $49.9 million as compared to $51.1 million for the prior twelve month period ended January 28, 2006.
    * For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, gross profit increased $1.1 million to $5.4 million, as compared to $4.3 million for the quarter ended January 28, 2006. For the eleven months ended December 31, 2006, gross profit was $17.5 million, or 35.1% of net sales, as compared to $17.1 million for the twelve months ended January 28, 2006, or 33.4% of net sales.
    * Operating expense decreased $200,000 to $4.4 million from $4.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, as compared to the quarter ended January 28, 2006, and decreased $1.1 million to $15.4 million for eleven months ended December 31, 2006 as compared to $16.5 million for the twelve months ended January 28, 2006. For the eleven months ended December 31, 2006 and for the twelve months ended January 28, 2006, operating expense as a percentage of revenue remained relatively constant. Included in the twelve months ended January 28, 2006, was a $147,000 charge for severance costs associated with the Company's continuing reorganization.
    * Operating income for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 was $1.0 million, an improvement of $1.2 million over the operating loss of $0.2 million for the fiscal quarter ended January 28, 2006. For the eleven months ended December 31, 2006, operating income improved by $1.5 million to $2.1 million from $0.6 million for the twelve months ended January 28, 2006.
    * For the quarter ended December 31, 2006 the Company reported net income of $35,000 versus net loss of $291,000 for the quarter ended January 28, 2006. Included in the three months ended December 31, 2006 was a $1.0 million reserve against the note receivable from Sheridan Square Entertainment and included in the quarter ended January 28, 2006 was income from discontinued operations of $447,000. For the eleven months ended December 31, 2006, the Company reported net income of $1.3 million, compared to net income of $537,000 for the twelve months ended January 28, 2006

HRSH is a $33 M market cap now with sales of $49.9 M over the last 11 month period.

On the news it says net income for the 11 month period was $1.3 M, and just $35 K for the most recent quarter, so I guess it is trading at about 25 times trailing earnings now.

I'm not sure the news is that good, would have to dig more ... will put it up on the poll as a candidate for a more in depth analysis.

Dave you guys should buy TGC. Tengasco, Inc. engages in the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. I'm expecting earnings to come out after the bell today. Last year on 3/20/06 TGC went from .75 to $2.00 on the earnings release.

They have higher revenue in the first 3 quarters of 07 than all of 06 so this 4th quarter is just icing on the cake. Here is the increase of production;

Year-Month Barrels(Oil)
2003-01     10,396
2003-02     10,016
2003-03     10,762
2003-04     11,025
2003-05     12,174
2003-06     12,025
2003-07     12,662
2003-08     11,160
2003-09     10,175
2003-10     11,048
2003-11     8,193
2003-12     9,731
2004-01     11,181
2004-02     10,554
2004-03     10,890
2004-04     10,567
2004-05     10,083
2004-06     11,029
2004-07     10,528
2004-08     10,117
2004-09     10,801
2004-10     11,975
2004-11     10,195
2004-12     11,457
2005-01     10,048
2005-02     10,281
2005-03     10,272
2005-04     10,924
2005-05     8,960
2005-06     11,366
2005-07     15,160
2005-08     14,071
2005-09     11,109
2005-10     12,971
2005-11     13,972
2005-12     16,463
2006-01     14,912
2006-02     13,309
2006-03     15,144
2006-04     14,919
2006-05     15,242
2006-06     18,410
2006-07     15,462
2006-08     16,350
2006-09     17,731
2006-10     17,659
2006-11     21,174 >:D 

Percent change in production versus same month in 2005 (similar to comparing Q1 to Q1):

2006-01  14,912   48.4%
2006-02  13,309   29.5%
2006-03  15,144   47.4%
2006-04  14,919   36.6%
2006-05  15,242   70.1%
2006-06  18,410   62.0%
2006-07  15,462   2.0%
2006-08  16,350   16.2%
2006-09  17,731   59.6%
2006-10  17,657   36.1%
2006-11  21,174   52%

This link explains the operations and production (http://www.tengasco.com/operations/operation.htm)

The latest insider information for the month of January shows 36,000 shares purchased and 6,100 shares sold.

Can you do a 10 minute video Dave...pretty pretty please  :-*

10 minute video only for tomorrow because I'm still doing GTW and ONT today. TGC is trading just $34 K today, so it's a low volume stock, with $43 M market cap, that's why it can fly so much over the short term.

I have 5 cents EPS over the last 12 month period, so the stock is trading at $0.74/$0.05 = 14.8 times trailing earnings.

Net profit margin over Q3 2006 was very high at 23%, and that also explains why the stock can move so much, just a bit of revenue expansion and 23% of it go to the bottom line.

The numbers you got for the number of barrels are interesting. I don't have time now, but if you could answer the following questions, you would see if the trade is right or not:

1) How many barrels sold over the last quarter period and at what price (check the oil price at at stockcharts.com, symbol is $WTIC)
2) Calculate net income using a 23% net profit margin
3) Divide by the number of shares outstanding to get EPS for the quarter
4) Multiply estimated EPS for the quarter by 4
5) Divide the share price by the number obtained in 4)
6) If the number obtained in 5) is less than 8, you should buy the stock with confidence. If not, you should pass it.

How does this sound? Let me know of your findings. Thanks :)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 11:40:51 AM
10 minute video only for tomorrow because I'm still doing GTW and ONT today. TGC is trading just $34 K today, so it's a low volume stock, with $43 M market cap, that's why it can fly so much over the short term.

I have 5 cents EPS over the last 12 month period, so the stock is trading at $0.74/$0.05 = 14.8 times trailing earnings.

Net profit margin over Q3 2006 was very high at 23%, and that also explains why the stock can move so much, just a bit of revenue expansion and 23% of it go to the bottom line.

The numbers you got for the number of barrels are interesting. I don't have time now, but if you could answer the following questions, you would see if the trade is right or not:

1) How many barrels sold over the last quarter period and at what price (check the oil price at at stockcharts.com, symbol is $WTIC)
2) Calculate net income using a 23% net profit margin
3) Divide by the number of shares outstanding to get EPS for the quarter
4) Multiply estimated EPS for the quarter by 4
5) Divide the share price by the number obtained in 4)
6) If the number obtained in 5) is less than 8, you should buy the stock with confidence. If not, you should pass it.

How does this sound? Let me know of your findings. Thanks :)

ahh i wish i had time as well. i have to go to class then meet with a real estate agent. can anyone else do it? see you later guys.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 11:40:51 AM
10 minute video only for tomorrow because I'm still doing GTW and ONT today. TGC is trading just $34 K today, so it's a low volume stock, with $43 M market cap, that's why it can fly so much over the short term.

I have 5 cents EPS over the last 12 month period, so the stock is trading at $0.74/$0.05 = 14.8 times trailing earnings.

Net profit margin over Q3 2006 was very high at 23%, and that also explains why the stock can move so much, just a bit of revenue expansion and 23% of it go to the bottom line.

The numbers you got for the number of barrels are interesting. I don't have time now, but if you could answer the following questions, you would see if the trade is right or not:

1) How many barrels sold over the last quarter period and at what price (check the oil price at at stockcharts.com, symbol is $WTIC)
2) Calculate net income using a 23% net profit margin
3) Divide by the number of shares outstanding to get EPS for the quarter
4) Multiply estimated EPS for the quarter by 4
5) Divide the share price by the number obtained in 4)
6) If the number obtained in 5) is less than 8, you should buy the stock with confidence. If not, you should pass it.

How does this sound? Let me know of your findings. Thanks :)

Yes prodigy, please let us know. I would love to be on board for this one.

Quoteahh i wish i had time as well. i have to go to class then meet with a real estate agent. can anyone else do it? see you later guys.

Ok, let me see what I can do. Where did you get those production numbers prodigykid6, I don't have them on my news service or in Yahoo?

You already got us the October (17,659) and November (21,174) numbers, do you have December?

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 12:02:43 PM

Quoteahh i wish i had time as well. i have to go to class then meet with a real estate agent. can anyone else do it? see you later guys.

Ok, let me see what I can do. Where did you get those production numbers prodigykid6, I don't have them on my news service or in Yahoo?

You already got us the October (17,659) and November (21,174) numbers, do you have December?

Ok, let's be optimistic and consider 21,000 for December. This gives us about 60,000 barrels of oil produced in calendar Q4 2006. Over that period the average price per barrel was about $60. This gives me $3.6 M in revenues for the quarter. At a 23% net profit margin this gives me $828,000 in net income which translates to $0.14 EPS for the quarter if the share count remained the same as in Q3, which was 58,981,017 shares (but TGC is a "diluter", check here: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=tgc&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann

$0.14*4 quarters = $0.56. $0.75/$0.56 = 1.34, certainly less than 8.

Yes, I guess you're right prodigykid6, there's enough material here for a short term speculative buy, even though I don't recommend short term speculative trading.

Good luck :)

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 11:12:30 AM
Dave you guys should buy TGC. Tengasco, Inc. engages in the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. I'm expecting earnings to come out after the bell today. Last year on 3/20/06 TGC went from .75 to $2.00 on the earnings release.

They have higher revenue in the first 3 quarters of 07 than all of 06 so this 4th quarter is just icing on the cake. Here is the increase of production;

Year-Month Barrels(Oil)
2003-01     10,396
2003-02     10,016
2003-03     10,762
2003-04     11,025
2003-05     12,174
2003-06     12,025
2003-07     12,662
2003-08     11,160
2003-09     10,175
2003-10     11,048
2003-11     8,193
2003-12     9,731
2004-01     11,181
2004-02     10,554
2004-03     10,890
2004-04     10,567
2004-05     10,083
2004-06     11,029
2004-07     10,528
2004-08     10,117
2004-09     10,801
2004-10     11,975
2004-11     10,195
2004-12     11,457
2005-01     10,048
2005-02     10,281
2005-03     10,272
2005-04     10,924
2005-05     8,960
2005-06     11,366
2005-07     15,160
2005-08     14,071
2005-09     11,109
2005-10     12,971
2005-11     13,972
2005-12     16,463
2006-01     14,912
2006-02     13,309
2006-03     15,144
2006-04     14,919
2006-05     15,242
2006-06     18,410
2006-07     15,462
2006-08     16,350
2006-09     17,731
2006-10     17,659
2006-11     21,174 >:D 

Percent change in production versus same month in 2005 (similar to comparing Q1 to Q1):

2006-01  14,912   48.4%
2006-02  13,309   29.5%
2006-03  15,144   47.4%
2006-04  14,919   36.6%
2006-05  15,242   70.1%
2006-06  18,410   62.0%
2006-07  15,462   2.0%
2006-08  16,350   16.2%
2006-09  17,731   59.6%
2006-10  17,657   36.1%
2006-11  21,174   52%

This link explains the operations and production (http://www.tengasco.com/operations/operation.htm)

The latest insider information for the month of January shows 36,000 shares purchased and 6,100 shares sold.

Can you do a 10 minute video Dave...pretty pretty please  :-*

Earnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I would like to get a nice short term bounce here and buy before the close. However, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

Hello David,

I hope that you are having a fantastic day, I know that I am - ASTI and SILC are having a great week too! 

If you get a chance, I would like you to take a look at OPBL.ob. I believe that the Revenue growth and Net Profit margins here are sweet, and that the stock may be in a nice spot for a run to $12-15 per share.

What are your thoughts about OPBL.ob?

Thanks for your thoughts and Great Work!

Bourbon    :D

QuoteEarnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Prodigykid said earnings will be out after the close, but I don't know where he got the information, I didn't find anything on the subject. Well, it's good if earnings are good, it's bad if earnings are bad. Without the earnings release there's no catalyst to move it one way or the other, volume is low and the chart is dead.

QuoteHowever, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

I'm not sure I understood the question lancefur, but I don't think there's a correlation between the hour earnings are released and how good or bad they are.

What's your opinion of WFR?  Looks like they could be a good investment with our bet in solar's future

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10345504_2.html

Thanks for your input.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 12:39:37 PM

QuoteEarnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Prodigykid said earnings will be out after the close, but I don't know where he got the information, I didn't find anything on the subject. Well, it's good if earnings are good, it's bad if earnings are bad. Without the earnings release there's no catalyst to move it one way or the other, volume is low and the chart is dead.

QuoteHowever, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

I'm not sure I understood the question lancefur, but I don't think there's a correlation between the hour earnings are released and how good or bad they are.

Agreed.  However, I think I have heard that there is a correlation for earnings released after the bell on Friday though, those tend to be more negative from what I have heard.

Quote from: lancefur on March 20, 2007, 12:31:27 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 11:12:30 AM
Dave you guys should buy TGC. Tengasco, Inc. engages in the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. I'm expecting earnings to come out after the bell today. Last year on 3/20/06 TGC went from .75 to $2.00 on the earnings release.

They have higher revenue in the first 3 quarters of 07 than all of 06 so this 4th quarter is just icing on the cake. Here is the increase of production;

Year-Month Barrels(Oil)
2003-01     10,396
2003-02     10,016
2003-03     10,762
2003-04     11,025
2003-05     12,174
2003-06     12,025
2003-07     12,662
2003-08     11,160
2003-09     10,175
2003-10     11,048
2003-11     8,193
2003-12     9,731
2004-01     11,181
2004-02     10,554
2004-03     10,890
2004-04     10,567
2004-05     10,083
2004-06     11,029
2004-07     10,528
2004-08     10,117
2004-09     10,801
2004-10     11,975
2004-11     10,195
2004-12     11,457
2005-01     10,048
2005-02     10,281
2005-03     10,272
2005-04     10,924
2005-05     8,960
2005-06     11,366
2005-07     15,160
2005-08     14,071
2005-09     11,109
2005-10     12,971
2005-11     13,972
2005-12     16,463
2006-01     14,912
2006-02     13,309
2006-03     15,144
2006-04     14,919
2006-05     15,242
2006-06     18,410
2006-07     15,462
2006-08     16,350
2006-09     17,731
2006-10     17,659
2006-11     21,174 >:D 

Percent change in production versus same month in 2005 (similar to comparing Q1 to Q1):

2006-01  14,912   48.4%
2006-02  13,309   29.5%
2006-03  15,144   47.4%
2006-04  14,919   36.6%
2006-05  15,242   70.1%
2006-06  18,410   62.0%
2006-07  15,462   2.0%
2006-08  16,350   16.2%
2006-09  17,731   59.6%
2006-10  17,657   36.1%
2006-11  21,174   52%

This link explains the operations and production (http://www.tengasco.com/operations/operation.htm)

The latest insider information for the month of January shows 36,000 shares purchased and 6,100 shares sold.

Can you do a 10 minute video Dave...pretty pretty please  :-*

Earnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I would like to get a nice short term bounce here and buy before the close. However, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

Lancefur, my past experience has always been negative when buying something I'm not familiar with on an earnings play.  Just because they are releasing it after hours doesn't necessary mean it will be bad, even though I do believe most bad earnings report are released after hours.  The problem I see is the fact that most people (including myself) are always looking for the next big gainer and we rush into thinking its a sure thing only to go deeper in the hole.  I am guilty of this and I am still trying to learn to control it.  My advice for you would be to not buy it if you are not familiar with the stock and to wait until after they report earnings and see the reaction.  If its really good, you can always put a small order in after hours and sell it the next day for a gain.  Even though it sounds good, I'm not buying it, I'd rather sit still and wait, there's always another day in the market and there will be days when we come across another mover like EFUT or ACOR.  Whatever you do, GOOD LUCK!

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 20, 2007, 12:36:10 PM
Hello David,

I hope that you are having a fantastic day, I know that I am - ASTI and SILC are having a great week too! 

If you get a chance, I would like you to take a look at OPBL.ob. I believe that the Revenue growth and Net Profit margins here are sweet, and that the stock may be in a nice spot for a run to $12-15 per share.

What are your thoughts about OPBL.ob?

Thanks for your thoughts and Great Work!

Bourbon    :D

I never understood very well why OPBL.OB was up so much, then I knew it was because NYMEX bought a stake at the company, but I still see a $300 M market cap with $16 M in revenues in 2006, so I don't understand the valuation, looks stratospheric to me. But maybe if I make some long term estimates my conclusion would change, will put it out for the poll.

Thanks Bourbon :)

Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

Quote from: wisebuys on March 20, 2007, 12:44:40 PM
What's your opinion of WFR?  Looks like they could be a good investment with our bet in solar's future

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10345504_2.html

Thanks for your input.

It is a $12.3 B company, too big for my taste, but will put it out on the poll.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 01:01:21 PM
Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

But Kid, on the post you wrote 21,174 for November 2006, and on these links it says 19,059. Anyway, what we needed were the December numbers to get the full Q4 2006. How do you know earnings will be out tonight?

Thanks.

GTW analysis:

That isn't including production Tennessee. It gets rather complicated. I dont believe Decembers numbers are out yet. Last years earnings came out on 3-20-06 and on bloomberg.com it said 3-20-06 was the approximate earnings date. I'm assuming they will be after the bell or at tomorrows open. Not for sure though. I dont mean to be a pro on TGC by all means but it doesn't take a genius to see the increase in barrels of oil.

TGC in the past has only owned a certain percentage of working interest in the wells. I know that it will have 100% working interest in all wells very soon. Something to do with paying off the debts.

The reason TGC has diluted shares was to pay off the long term debt and restructure the balance sheet. There is no reason to dilute shares now.

David,
I joined the SILC party a bit late, and only bought today..in high 15s..approx half my target postion..

Worth adding more here? or do you expect some pullback?
Whats driving todays jump?
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 20, 2007, 02:59:04 PM
David,
I joined the SILC party a bit late, and only bought today..in high 15s..approx half my target postion..

Worth adding more here? or do you expect some pullback?
Whats driving todays jump?
Nick

Hi Nick, you should make that question at SILC's thread on the Main Portfolio message board (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=1.0), and I'll address it on the daily updates.

I can't comment on intraday developments, you know, you need to focus on long term fundamentals. As for position size, I always invest a fixed portion of capital in each stock, in the Main (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)'s case it is 6.66% and I never average up or down, so I don't understand the question "should I add more"?

You already need to know what to buy and when to buy it, you don't need to answer the question on "how much to buy", that should be pre-set.

I don't think long term estimates differ much if one buys at $13, $15 or $17, but if you put the question on the proper place, I'll make the calculus :)

Thanks :)

Thanks David..gotcha.

Hi David,

I know how bullish you are on China, so thought you might be interested in an article I just read on some new changes in China.

- New laws protecting property
- New options and futures for the stock market in China
- New investment fund to be created in China

That last one could have ongoing consequences for the US dollar

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/weiss/2007/0319.html

Good Day
Quasi

ONT analysis:

Quote from: Quasi on March 20, 2007, 03:22:49 PM
Hi David,

I know how bullish you are on China, so thought you might be interested in an article I just read on some new changes in China.

- New laws protecting property
- New options and futures for the stock market in China
- New investment fund to be created in China

That last one could have ongoing consequences for the US dollar

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/weiss/2007/0319.html

Good Day
Quasi

Thanks Quasi, I'm printing to read it in bed :)

Ok, the market is closed now, I'll have to wait about 1 hour for Reuters Data Link to update my Metastock database and then run my technical filter to see if I find some more good candidates for today's poll.

The poll will run from, say, 6 PM ET to 2 AM (that's when I wake up here in Portugal).

Thanks for today's talk, and don't forget to vote for tomorrow's video analysis, see ya :)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 04:02:28 PM
Ok, the market is closed now, I'll have to wait about 1 hour for Reuters Data Link to update my Metastock database and then run my technical filter to see if I find some more good candidates for today's poll.

The poll will run from, say, 6 PM ET to 2 AM (that's when I wake up here in Portugal).

Thanks for today's talk, and don't forget to vote for tomorrow's video analysis, see ya :)

How about these David, ;)

ANO
ABAT.ob
GTI
ONT
BIG
NLY

QuoteHow about these David,  ;)

ANO
ABAT.ob
GTI
ONT
BIG
NLY

I just made ONT Terliso, the other ones sound fine, will put them on the poll, thanks :)

Lets' see what David has to say abt them Terliso, but they all look
pretty good.  Only doubts on NLY due to the sector

David,
Could you add NMX & AIR to the poll?
Thanks,
Nick

Quote from: jorgegr on March 20, 2007, 04:51:44 PM
Lets' see what David has to say abt them Terliso, but they all look
pretty good.  Only doubts on NLY due to the sector

NLY is even more interesting considering the sector ! A mortgage related company making new highs on explosive volume in a time like this is pretty significant !

David, if you get a second, take a look at RNO, as well.

My analysis, here:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6534.msg93124#msg93124

I'm thinking at least a double short term, multi-bag over time. 

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 01:01:21 PM
Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

But Kid, on the post you wrote 21,174 for November 2006, and on these links it says 19,059. Anyway, what we needed were the December numbers to get the full Q4 2006. How do you know earnings will be out tonight?

Thanks.

I would like to add a little background color to this conversation. I own mineral rights to a few hundred acres in Kansas. In the last six months I have been approached several times by outfits wanting to lease the mineral rights. This week I received an offer to lease a property that was already drilled a few years back (dry hole :(  ) It appears to me that there is a minor oil rush going on in Kansas.  One thing to check, on the production numbers, is the age of the wells. Oil in Kansas is located in pockets, so wells have a limited life depending on the size of the pocket. Do the list anything like "proven reserves" ?  Are they producing significant amounts of gas in addition to the oil?

Just my two cents, good luck.

Quote from: ravenquork on March 20, 2007, 07:06:53 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 01:01:21 PM
Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

But Kid, on the post you wrote 21,174 for November 2006, and on these links it says 19,059. Anyway, what we needed were the December numbers to get the full Q4 2006. How do you know earnings will be out tonight?

Thanks.

I would like to add a little background color to this conversation. I own mineral rights to a few hundred acres in Kansas. In the last six months I have been approached several times by outfits wanting to lease the mineral rights. This week I received an offer to lease a property that was already drilled a few years back (dry hole :(  ) It appears to me that there is a minor oil rush going on in Kansas.  One thing to check, on the production numbers, is the age of the wells. Oil in Kansas is located in pockets, so wells have a limited life depending on the size of the pocket. Do the list anything like "proven reserves" ?  Are they producing significant amounts of gas in addition to the oil?

Just my two cents, good luck.

Most of the gas comes from Tennesse in Swan Creek field where they have 23 wells. The production is declining which is natural in any well. Whats interesting is TGC entered into an agreement On October 24, 2006 the Company signed a twenty-year Landfill Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement with BFI Waste Systems of Tennessee, LLC whereby the Company will buy the naturally produced gas stream presently being collected and flared at a municipal solid waste landfill serving the metropolitan area of Kingsport, Tennessee that is owned and operated by BFI in Church Hill, Tennessee.  The landfill is located about two miles from the Company's existing pipeline serving Eastman Chemical Company.  Contingent upon obtaining suitable financing, the Company plans to acquire and install a proprietary combination of advanced gas treatment technology to extract the methane component of the landfill gas stream to be purchased.  Methane is the principal component of natural gas and makes up about half of the purchased gas stream by volume.  The Company plans to construct a small diameter pipeline to deliver the extracted methane gas to the Company's existing pipeline for delivery to Eastman Chemical Company under the Company's existing natural gas sales agreement.

Total costs for the project are expected to be approximately $3.7 million.  The Company estimates that commercial operations of the Project may begin as early as late summer or early fall of 2007.   At current gas production rates and expected extraction efficiencies, when commercial operations of the Project begin, the Company would expect to deliver about 418 MMBtu per day of additional gas to Eastman, which would **almost double** the current volumes of natural gas being delivered to Eastman by the Company from the Swan Creek field. The gas supply from this project is projected to grow over the years as the underlying operating landfill continues to expand and generate additional naturally produced gas, and for several years following the closing of the landfill, currently estimated by BFI to occur between the years 2022 and 2026. So this income will last until 2026! Hell of a deal if you ask me.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 08:13:30 PM

Quote from: ravenquork on March 20, 2007, 07:06:53 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 01:01:21 PM
Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

But Kid, on the post you wrote 21,174 for November 2006, and on these links it says 19,059. Anyway, what we needed were the December numbers to get the full Q4 2006. How do you know earnings will be out tonight?

Thanks.

I would like to add a little background color to this conversation. I own mineral rights to a few hundred acres in Kansas. In the last six months I have been approached several times by outfits wanting to lease the mineral rights. This week I received an offer to lease a property that was already drilled a few years back (dry hole :(  ) It appears to me that there is a minor oil rush going on in Kansas.  One thing to check, on the production numbers, is the age of the wells. Oil in Kansas is located in pockets, so wells have a limited life depending on the size of the pocket. Do the list anything like "proven reserves" ?  Are they producing significant amounts of gas in addition to the oil?

Just my two cents, good luck.

Most of the gas comes from Tennesse in Swan Creek field where they have 23 wells. The production is declining which is natural in any well. Whats interesting is TGC entered into an agreement On October 24, 2006 the Company signed a twenty-year Landfill Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement with BFI Waste Systems of Tennessee, LLC whereby the Company will buy the naturally produced gas stream presently being collected and flared at a municipal solid waste landfill serving the metropolitan area of Kingsport, Tennessee that is owned and operated by BFI in Church Hill, Tennessee.  The landfill is located about two miles from the Company's existing pipeline serving Eastman Chemical Company.  Contingent upon obtaining suitable financing, the Company plans to acquire and install a proprietary combination of advanced gas treatment technology to extract the methane component of the landfill gas stream to be purchased.  Methane is the principal component of natural gas and makes up about half of the purchased gas stream by volume.  The Company plans to construct a small diameter pipeline to deliver the extracted methane gas to the Company's existing pipeline for delivery to Eastman Chemical Company under the Company's existing natural gas sales agreement.

Total costs for the project are expected to be approximately $3.7 million.  The Company estimates that commercial operations of the Project may begin as early as late summer or early fall of 2007.   At current gas production rates and expected extraction efficiencies, when commercial operations of the Project begin, the Company would expect to deliver about 418 MMBtu per day of additional gas to Eastman, which would **almost double** the current volumes of natural gas being delivered to Eastman by the Company from the Swan Creek field. The gas supply from this project is projected to grow over the years as the underlying operating landfill continues to expand and generate additional naturally produced gas, and for several years following the closing of the landfill, currently estimated by BFI to occur between the years 2022 and 2026. So this income will last until 2026! Hell of a deal if you ask me.

Do you know what kind of income this project is expected to generate?

Hi David

take a look at these stocks they'er the best on the market  ;D

ROCM , BTJ , PRXI , BONT , SPAR , PCU

look at their growth rate ... 

Do you know what kind of income this project is expected to generate?
[/quote]

Sorry I'm not a pro but I know the number is 418 MMBtu per day. So if you could figure out the profit on that some how. I think david could figure that out. I thought that the Swan field creek was half there income...so if its supposed to double there natural gas production then maybe 3 million total from gas a quarter. This is just a guess I could be way off. The 418 number is supposed to increase over time as the garbage facility grows.


Here was the quote, "At current gas production rates and expected extraction efficiencies, when commercial operations of the Project begin, the Company would expect to deliver about 418 MMBtu per day of additional gas to Eastman".