3SOF

Good morning :)

Here's the first analysis from yesterday's poll, ACH:



I still have AMKR and NLY, which were the second and third most voted stocks.

Feel free to post about stocks or the general market that I'll drop a few lines if I have time. Those stocks will figure on tonight's poll.

Have a nice day :)

Hi David

take a look at these stocks they'er the best on the market 

ROCM , BTJ , PRXI , BONT , SPAR , PCU

look at their growth rate ... 

TSTC up pre-market after earnings report.

Telestone Technologies Announces Fiscal 2006 Results
Wednesday March 21, 8:24 am ET

BEIJING--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 21, 2007 -- Telestone Technologies Corporation (NasdaqGM:TSTC - News)

Fiscal 2006 Highlights


--  Revenue increase 24.69% to $21.7 Million
--  Gross profit increase 30.01% to $11 Million
--  Gross margin up to 50.75%
--  Net income increase 23.67% to $4.6 Million
--  Diluted Earnings Per Share $0.53

Telestone Technologies Corporation (NasdaqGM:TSTC - News), a leading provider of wireless communication coverage solutions primarily in China announced financial results for their fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2006.

Revenue for the fourth quarter increased 35.2% to $7.4 million compared to $5.5 million in the prior year period. Net income increased 12.2% to $1.6 million, $.19 per share (diluted) compared to $1.4 million, $.17 per share (diluted) in the prior year period. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 58% compared to 40% in the prior year.

For the 2006 fiscal year, total revenue increased 24.69% to $21.7 million from $17.4 million in 2005. Product sales increased 33.37% as compared to the corresponding period last year. Revenues from China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Netcom increased 112.93%, 68.761%, and 44.11%, respectively from the previous year. Our gross margin for the year was 50.75% compared to 48.67% in the prior year period. Net income for 2006 fiscal year was $4.6 million or $0.53 per share (diluted) as compared to $3.7 million or $0.43 per share (diluted) for 2005. Net income for 2006 increased 23.67% compared to the same period of last year. This was the first year that Telestone paid income taxes to the PRC (People's Republic of China) at a rate of 12%.

General and administrative expenses decreased 18.2% for 2006 fiscal year to $1,674,000 as compared to $2,048,000, in the prior year. The major reasons for the decrease in general and administrative expenses were due to our efforts to optimize the structure of the Company, improve working efficiency and reduction on daily expenses.

Sales and marketing expenses increased 3.9% for 2006 fiscal year to $2,917,000 as compared to $2,806,000 in the prior year. The increase in sales and marketing expenses originated from the expense in market development and the building of the new branches and other related fees. During fiscal year 2006, we continuously entered into overseas markets, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and India. We believe the investment will improve our Company's profitability.

Research and development expenses increased 38% for 2006 fiscal year to $605,000, as compared to $438,000, in the prior year. The main reason for this increase is that in fiscal year 2006 we put more investment in research and development to maintain our competitive edge.

Management of the Company currently anticipates 2007 fiscal year to be specifically above 30% growth in revenue and net earnings after taxes, as compared to 2006. This is without the inclusion of revenue generated from the upcoming 3G deployments in China. Management does expect a positive impact in revenue upon the arrival 3G, but at this time they are not able to predict the specific impact for 2007 due to the uncertainty of when the licenses will be issued to the Chinese mobile operators during the year. "The management team is pleased with the financial results of our company for 2006 fiscal year. We insist that we will achieve our planned business targets in fiscal 2007.

For those that have watched the video, what is David's bottom line on ACH?

Hi Dave,
My stock for today is AVT.

Thanks

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 21, 2007, 09:35:16 AM
For those that have watched the video, what is David's bottom line on ACH?

I gave it a 7 buddjas1. I have an 11 average earnings multiple for the Aluminum industry: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AL

Also, I see it is a $11.7 B market cap, not $3.5 B as I wrote yesterday. In Q4 the gross margin declined to just 25% because of a drop in Aluminum prices. Still, 2006 net profit margin at 19%.

WWAT.ob moving up.  3 year Resistance of .69 coming.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 21, 2007, 09:44:06 AM

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 21, 2007, 09:35:16 AM
For those that have watched the video, what is David's bottom line on ACH?

I gave it a 7 buddjas1. I have an 11 average earnings multiple for the Aluminum industry: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AL

Also, I see it is a $11.7 B market cap, not $3.5 B as I wrote yesterday. In Q4 the gross margin declined to just 25% because of a drop in Aluminum prices. Still, 2006 net profit margin at 19%.

Hi David,

For those of us who can't view the video.  Could you please write a quick synopsis, like the one your wrote for ACH above.

Thanks

David, could you put ABAT.OB on today's poll?  I would have voted for it if I had looked up the stock ahead of time.  It looks good to me.  I'd be interested in your take on it.  There's an interesting article on it at http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070319/29904_id.html?.v=1

Quote from: David Randolph on March 21, 2007, 09:44:06 AMI gave it a 7 buddjas1. I have an 11 average earnings multiple for the Aluminum industry: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AL

Also, I see it is a $11.7 B market cap, not $3.5 B as I wrote yesterday. In Q4 the gross margin declined to just 25% because of a drop in Aluminum prices. Still, 2006 net profit margin at 19%.

Thank you for taking the time to look at it.  Applaud.  I will watch the video later.

Quote from: Jim897 on March 21, 2007, 11:07:25 AM
David, could you put ABAT.OB on today's poll?  I would have voted for it if I had looked up the stock ahead of time.  It looks good to me.  I'd be interested in your take on it.  There's an interesting article on it at http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070319/29904_id.html?.v=1

Sure, I'll put all suggestions on the poll. The article is interesting ... we'll see if people vote for it.

I'm with a terrible cold, you wouldn't believe how the weather is crazy here in Portugal the last few days (well, crazy for us, I bet smooth for Americans).

I'm thinking that I could build a model for my long term estimates, it would sound so professional :D

AMKR is coming up.

BigSully1 wrote the following on another board:

«How about Chinese manufacturer Trina Solar TSL looks very interesting. Analysts polled by first call expect Trina's profit to jump 73% this year to $1.66 and next year growth accelerating to 116% to $3.59.

It's interesting, I read where Germany is the fastest growing solar market in the world. About 87% of Trina's revs come from Germany.»

I believe this is a good suggestion for a deeper analysis.

AMKR analysis:


I gave it an 8, the chart is awesome !

Some more comments about TSL;

Germany has the world's largest solar power station, near Leipzig. Solar companies are now racing to meet demand from Europe and North America as governments have gotten behind in solar power. Almost everything Trina makes is for export. Worldwide electriciity consumption expected to double by 2030. Solar demand has been growing annual rate of 43% last 5 years.

Right now Trina still has several facilities yet to go online. March 5, Trina announced that it had successfully tested it's new cell line and should start operating in April. TSL uses silicon wafers whereas FSLR uses "thin film" technology. thin film still takes up more space than traditional, so it does not appear to be on the verge of totally replacing it.

Silicon supply is pretty doggone tight. Someone suggested it (WFR) here the other day, is that what they make? Trina uses much reclaimed silicon. Trina  has already secured 80% of it's needs for for 2007 and 50% for 2008. Would really like to see Trina make it's own silicon, so it is not as suceptible to premium silicon prices. But the most margin should still be in the cells and modules anyway.

Yes, BigSully1, WFR does supply the silicon.  It is also extremely profitable and well run.  It may not appreciate 20% in a day, but it shouldn't drop 50% in one either.  Much easier on the heart these days.

Good luck investing.  Have a GRRRREAT DAY !!!

Any thoughts on GRRF, has this dog finally turned the corner?

Quote from: kslifka on March 21, 2007, 10:06:23 AM
WWAT.ob moving up.  3 year Resistance of .69 coming.

kslifka, WWAT.ob looks very interesting... their Growth Rate is greater than 61% of its peers in the Misc. Capital Goods industry.

"WorldWater & Power Awarded $5.7 Million Project By Bayshore Recycling"

"The company, which estimates 2006 revenue of $17 million, expects to see sales nearly double this year - to $30-$35 million, representing 5 megaWatts of electricity. The company has a steady backlog of solar projects and is bidding on an active pipeline of opportunities."

Just found some more interesting information regarding the Institutional ownership, check this out:

Monthly share rotation:
Buyers 3/20/07     7,932,500     $4,307,348     5.40%
Sellers 3/20/07    0    $0    0.00%

Total Number of Shares Held   20,691,535
Large Block Owners   12
Percent Shares Owned   14.10%
Percent Change in Ownership   62.17%  <-- this looks attractive

Quote from: wisebuys on March 21, 2007, 12:55:50 PM
Yes, BigSully1, WFR does supply the silicon.  It is also extremely profitable and well run.  It may not appreciate 20% in a day, but it shouldn't drop 50% in one either.  Much easier on the heart these days.

Good luck investing.  Have a GRRRREAT DAY !!!

Wise buys, WFR does look to have a great future. I'm going to check it out.

I may have been dated on the world's largest solar power plant at Leipzig germany (5MW). There might be a bigger one at Erlassee, Bavaria germany now. Spain has a proposed 23.2 MW. Australia also has one in the works. China is claiming to be building the world's largest at 100MW, but California is claiming it will have the world's largest, covering 4,500 acres. ???

I was studying NLY, but after seeing the following long term chart, the share count evolution and the way the company distributes dividends I conclude that this absolutely isn't what I'm looking for in a stock, so, not worth the effort of a man with a cold.

I guess the recent volume spike was because short sellers went after all mortgage related stocks, but this one was solid, hence the short term rally as they cover. Fundamentally it looks like a bond, quite boring.

I have to go now, will be back with today's poll, with your suggestions and other stocks I get from my technical filter.

AMK, my mention last week or so ago , has been keeping plodding along. Technicals look much better now, I believe, although so many of these small caps keep rising on low volume, not so good? We'll see.

David, please add RNO to the poll.

My analysis, here:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6534.msg93124#msg93124

Does anyone know a website where you can scan for stocks from different countries, i.e. all Brazilian stocks traded on US exchanges?
And also where can I scan for dividend stocks, i.e. find a list of stocks in order of amount of dividend paid?
Thanks :-)

Quote from: TraderStar on March 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM
Does anyone know a website where you can scan for stocks from different countries, i.e. all Brazilian stocks traded on US exchanges?
And also where can I scan for dividend stocks, i.e. find a list of stocks in order of amount of dividend paid?
Thanks :-)

This site has some good resources

http://www.buyupside.com/archives/alltables.htm

Quote from: TraderStar on March 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM
Does anyone know a website where you can scan for stocks from different countries, i.e. all Brazilian stocks traded on US exchanges?
And also where can I scan for dividend stocks, i.e. find a list of stocks in order of amount of dividend paid?
Thanks :-)

Trader you can find it in VectorVest.com  :)

but you have to subscribe , it's great for scanning any type of stock

Anyone in CTIB?? Low market cap and at a 3 year high today. :o

Quote from: TraderStar on March 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM
Does anyone know a website where you can scan for stocks from different countries, i.e. all Brazilian stocks traded on US exchanges?
And also where can I scan for dividend stocks, i.e. find a list of stocks in order of amount of dividend paid?
Thanks :-)

Why are you looking for dividends? I dislike dividends. The company pays taxes and then you pay income taxes. Moreover stocks usually adjust to dividends paid by going down by the same amount. No fun in dividends.

David on Solar bandwagon FSLR is a compelling play. A good chunk is owned by Walmart family. You can dig in more about FSLR.

Quote
Why are you looking for dividends? I dislike dividends. The company pays taxes and then you pay income taxes. Moreover stocks usually adjust to dividends paid by going down by the same amount. No fun in dividends.

Hi David,

I agree with you about dividends, but I have one big exception: The Canadian energy trusts with monthly dividends.  Considering also the peak oil, these trusts could have a fantastic potential for the long term, special when the crude begin to rise.

If you have time take a look to some of them: PGH, PWI, AAV

Quote from: labatts6254 on March 21, 2007, 01:10:55 PM

Quote from: kslifka on March 21, 2007, 10:06:23 AM
WWAT.ob moving up.  3 year Resistance of .69 coming.

kslifka, WWAT.ob looks very interesting... their Growth Rate is greater than 61% of its peers in the Misc. Capital Goods industry.

"WorldWater & Power Awarded $5.7 Million Project By Bayshore Recycling"

"The company, which estimates 2006 revenue of $17 million, expects to see sales nearly double this year - to $30-$35 million, representing 5 megaWatts of electricity. The company has a steady backlog of solar projects and is bidding on an active pipeline of opportunities."

Just found some more interesting information regarding the Institutional ownership, check this out:

Monthly share rotation:
Buyers 3/20/07     7,932,500     $4,307,348     5.40%
Sellers 3/20/07    0    $0    0.00%

Total Number of Shares Held   20,691,535
Large Block Owners   12
Percent Shares Owned   14.10%
Percent Change in Ownership   62.17%  <-- this looks attractive

I like this stock too. I have owned it since .22 and sold today to capture profits at .64 but will buy back depending on an analysis. so......David, could you at WWAT.OB to your list as well for polling?

Thanks!

8)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 21, 2007, 03:13:13 PM

Quote from: TraderStar on March 21, 2007, 02:08:29 PM
Does anyone know a website where you can scan for stocks from different countries, i.e. all Brazilian stocks traded on US exchanges?
And also where can I scan for dividend stocks, i.e. find a list of stocks in order of amount of dividend paid?
Thanks :-)

Why are you looking for dividends? I dislike dividends. The company pays taxes and then you pay income taxes. Moreover stocks usually adjust to dividends paid by going down by the same amount. No fun in dividends.

They would be for my daughter's IRA account .. she has another 40 years to go before cashing it in & tax-free ... so .. dividends could work ;)

nullzero, thanks for website. 

Garoh, I know VectorVest but $60 a month just too much for what they offer .. for half that I might subscribe  ;D

Guloso, thanks for the tip about Canadian energy trusts, I had heard about that but did not have specifics .. will check out those stocks.

The cold I got yesterday didn't get better, it got worse, and I'm already quite tired from working at the Premium area today.

The winners from yesterday's poll were WWAT.OB, ABAT.OB and TSL, but I'll have to pass them for tomorrow.

I wish a nice day for your investments, see you :)

(will leave this thread open, change title)

By the way, since I put here my bear market call article, let me also put here my update to that article, written today:

«Hi :)

I've read the initial article on this thread again, and my three main bear motives were:

1) China, after 20 years of growing at an average annual pace of 10%, could have a recession. The stock market signaled that.

2) The US consumer was overextended into debt and there could be a consumer led recession in the US

3) The market itself, with that big red marubozu day with explosive volume said a bear market or even a crash could unfold

Given this environment I concluded I should sell all stocks and start shorting, which I did. At the time I wrote the article the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) was up 10.41% in 2007. As time went by, naturally I started investigating if my bear motives were warranted or not. Here's what I saw then:

1) Even though China's economy has been growing at a 10% average annual pace for 20 years, Consumption still accounts for just 35% of GDP, which is remarkable, since in all developed economies Consumption usually accounts for at least 2/3 of the economy. There's a big long term growth opportunity in China as the Chinese consumer starts spending just a bit more. The Chinese market didn't signal anything, because the bull market in Shanghai stocks is still young:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34729;image)

2) As for the American consumer over extension into debt, we've already seen and priced in the effects of that with some sub prime lenders going bust and bank stocks going down. But bank stocks recovered ground, why? Because banks were already trading at recession times valuation!

One might think that the full effects of a full blown recession aren't priced in. And I agree. But there's no certainty if there will be a recession or not, and even if it happens, it depends on the magnitude of the recession. In 1990-91 there was a severe recession in the US, yet, the bull market that started in 1982 ... just continued.

3) As for the third aspect, the market itself, the significance of that red marubozu was greatly diminished by yesterday's close above the midpoint of that candlestick. The market is no longer saying "I'm bearish", it is saying "I'm bullish":

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34730;image)

When I wrote the initial article of this thread, the Main was up 10.41% in 2007 and today it is up 12.24%. So I believe that even with several mistakes and changes of opinion, I survived pretty well and even prospered a bit. But short term results aren't the best part of all this, since I've learned important stuff from this experience:

- I've learned I shouldn't short stocks because the long term return of a short sale is always lousy, even if I'm right. To have better returns I would need to employ leverage and that increases risk by a lot, it's not worth it. Therefore, after I close GOOG's short, I'll probably never short another stock in my entire life, it just doesn't make economic sense.

- I've learned that exotic products like options don't increase the long term returns of a portfolio. They are short term trader's and risk lover's type of products and I'll never touch them again.

- I've learned, also from the study of previous bear markets, that there are always stocks and groups moving higher, even when the S&P 500 goes down by 50% like it did in the 2000 - 2003 period as housing stocks, for example,  rose ten fold. My money would have been much better spent buying those housing stocks than shorting internet stocks that went from $100 to below $1, returns would have been ten times larger !
Therefore I should concentrate on finding very attractive long term picks for the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) and ignore the general market movements. Think micro instead of macro.

That's what I'm doing and will continue to do. This is a very instructive thread and the period we went through was amazing.

Thank you :)»

NWD to post earnings tomorrow.  Posted $0.08 last quarter and trades at only $1.64.  If it posts anything near $0.08 again, NWD could rise quickly. Just something to watch.

TSL up another 7.5% this morning.

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 22, 2007, 10:00:21 AM
NWD to post earnings tomorrow.  Posted $0.08 last quarter and trades at only $1.64.  If it posts anything near $0.08 again, NWD could rise quickly. Just something to watch.

looks good...thanks

New Pick:

HRSH

Key Stats:
Market Cap (intraday):   27.63M


Profile:
Hirsch International Corp. provides electronic computer-controlled embroidery machinery, and related products and services in the United States. The company offers single- and multi head embroidery machines; proprietary application software; embroidery parts, supplies, and accessories; and embroidery products. Its customers include contract embroiderers, manufacturers of apparel and fashion accessories, retail stores, and embroidery entrepreneurs. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Hauppauge, New York.

Recent News:
Hirsch Reports 150% Increase in 2006 Net Income and Tripling of Operating Profits
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070320/20070320005379.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070320/20070320005379.html?.v=1)

...close to a buy point???

Does any1 have thoughts on SIGM? They reported a great quarter yesterday..and seems to be a nice story in the making..but they're results are a bit clouded with options-backdating issues.

David, could you pls. add to the poll??
Thanks,
Nick

hi dave,
what you think about GENR?

thanks

Please add GSX to the next poll. 

https://wachseconline.wachovia.com/NASApp/eBrokerage/FUSResearch/GSX032007-142629.pdf

David Please look at this great stock INPC  it looks great technically and could double in a few months

INPC

David what do you think of HOKU here?

Solar DLSL.ob is running here too. :o

OTD .. looks like it may be at the start of a run.  There is a ton of interest in bio-diesels and this one apparently is the best company in the group.

Buddjas I took a position in GSX. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

No problem.  I took a large position this morning myself.  Let's see if we cannot get at least 2.50 today.

David, what do you think of CECE here, earnings were out today, it's down around 18% now, I bought some at 14.60$.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070322/clth327.html?.v=2 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070322/clth327.html?.v=2)

Old friend PFSW is on the move again .. looks like will close above its 200 & 25 ma.

I have been watching PGSW this week.  Do you see an entry point, or will it have a pullback in the next couple trading days?  No PR since 2/26/07, volume is already 5x the 10 day average mid-day again today; not quite sure what's been moving the PPS recently.  This stock is on fire this week.

Cheers,

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070322/20070322006066.html?.v=1

this might be moving pfsw

David,
Could you look at TNXI.OB?

A small co. manufacturing Telepresence (advanced form of Video Conferencing)..although theyve had a strong run past few weeks, this might go higher..

They have had some nice deals where theyve been chosen over CISCO..

Would luv to hear ur thoughts.
Thanks,
Nick

I took a small position in BSMD on Friday, and wanted to share this stock with the board because of the superlative technicals:

1) Note the price-volume action on the weekly chart;
2) Note the breakout above an ascending triangle on the daily chart.

Don't see how this puppy can not go up.    8)

....... Also, for the truly curious and intrepid, check out OMR.

-gwfox