3SOF

Good morning :)

Here's yesterday's winner analysis, CECE:



Today I'll be busy working on that "10 page course in Fundamental Analysis", but feel free to post comments or specific stocks for today's poll, thank you :)

watch the oil inventory numbers at 10:30. if gas inventories are down it could be very bullish for VLO

David, I'd like for you to put MED on the poll again for today. Up another 5% this morning. THNX

David, I was just thinking it would be great if you could give like the top 5 poll candidates a simple cursory inspection/analysis and then you choose the best prospect to go into depth in your analysis. By the way, I think you have made some really exceptional picks lately. I'm really lovin your fundamental analysis. Keep up the good work.

Lokks like we might be back into correction mode in the market. Check how well MED performed during last years correction May-July. Very nice gain. Diet stocks tend to perform their best in 1st couple Q's of year.

David, i saw where you mentioned on the TSL thread where you'd like to have another solar stock. HOKU up nicely today on news of their planned polysilicon facility in Idaho. I know you mentioned before that you'd like to buy it when it pulled back to $4.50. It's well beyond that again now, but you might want to keep it in mind anyway for a new entry point? Some of these small solar stocks can be really volatile.

CIMT will be on fire again today??

if break 3.40 huge gain or???

Watch TSTC today. Looks like it's due for a squeeze

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 28, 2007, 11:36:34 AM
David, i saw where you mentioned on the TSL thread where you'd like to have another solar stock. HOKU up nicely today on news of their planned polysilicon facility in Idaho. I know you mentioned before that you'd like to buy it when it pulled back to $4.50. It's well beyond that again now, but you might want to keep it in mind anyway for a new entry point? Some of these small solar stocks can be really volatile.

HOKU does polysilicon? Everybody needs it to make solar panels. Thanks ;)

Recent TGC news 8-K (http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070327/tgc8-k.html)

- TGC sure made it clear about the merger and acquisition history of the new guy. I think they are trying to tell us something.

- Earnings deadline is April 2nd.

With crude going higher this is one to keep under the radar.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 28, 2007, 12:38:13 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 28, 2007, 11:36:34 AM
David, i saw where you mentioned on the TSL thread where you'd like to have another solar stock. HOKU up nicely today on news of their planned polysilicon facility in Idaho. I know you mentioned before that you'd like to buy it when it pulled back to $4.50. It's well beyond that again now, but you might want to keep it in mind anyway for a new entry point? Some of these small solar stocks can be really volatile.

HOKU does polysilicon? Everybody needs it to make solar panels. Thanks ;)

Hoku is overvalued....

QuoteHoku is overvalued....

Good point Mr China, the fact that there's growing demand for polysilicon doesn't mean HOKU is an attractive investment, there's a lot more to study before knowing that.

I don't know if it is overvalued or undervalued, I would have to do a more in depth analysis on it.

Thanks for your appropriate comment/opinion.

Hi David!  Did you analyze BDCO? It's on fire today with nice vol. 
Maybe could repeat the behavior of april 2006?

Thanks. have a nice day ( I guess evening in Portugal )  :)

David, here is another that I would have to rate very high on the fundamentals. AEIS

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and support of power conversion and control systems, and gas flow control devices used in plasma-based thin-film processing equipment. The company provides power conversion systems, including direct current, high power, low and mid frequency, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies; matching networks; and RF instrumentation. Its power conversion systems are used by semiconductor and similar thin-film manufacturers, including flat panel display, data storage, and architectural glass manufacturers in physical vapor deposition; chemical vapor deposition; reactive sputtering; electroplating; plasma vacuum processes; oxide, poly, and conductor etch; and carbon dioxide laser excitation. The company also offers flow control technology products comprising thermal mass flow controllers (MFCs), pressure-based MFCs, liquid MFCs, liquid vapor delivery systems, pressure control systems, and ultrasonic control systems. Its flow control technology products are primarily used in semiconductor, flat panel display manufacturing, and similar thin-film applications; fiber optics; safe delivery systems; and silica industries. In addition, Advanced Energy Industries provides thermal instrumentation products, which consist of thermal management and control solutions that are used in physical vapor deposition, chemical vapor deposition, rapid thermal processing, and other semiconductor applications requiring non-contact temperature measurement. Further, it offers source technology products, including plasma and ion beam sources, which are used in the direct deposition of thin films of diamond-like carbon, ion-assisted deposition, ion beam etching, optical coating, industrial coating, pre-cleaning, and chamber cleaning. Advanced Energy Industries sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado.

Semiconductor related products relate to nearly 70% of their sales. Aggressive expansion into solar power control systems (now only less than 5% of revs, with room for lots of growth) and other new markets should allow for very fast growth in coming years. Profits tripled on 26% sales increase in 2006. Consensus earnings estimates are down a bit for 2007, but only because the company is facing much higher taxes. Operating income is expected to show double digit growth.

I really doubt this will turn into a stock on fire, so I'm not sure you'd be that interested, but should prove to be a very solid long term investment, IMO.

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 28, 2007, 02:14:49 PM
David, here is another that I would have to rate very high on the fundamentals. AEIS

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and support of power conversion and control systems, and gas flow control devices used in plasma-based thin-film processing equipment. The company provides power conversion systems, including direct current, high power, low and mid frequency, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies; matching networks; and RF instrumentation. Its power conversion systems are used by semiconductor and similar thin-film manufacturers, including flat panel display, data storage, and architectural glass manufacturers in physical vapor deposition; chemical vapor deposition; reactive sputtering; electroplating; plasma vacuum processes; oxide, poly, and conductor etch; and carbon dioxide laser excitation. The company also offers flow control technology products comprising thermal mass flow controllers (MFCs), pressure-based MFCs, liquid MFCs, liquid vapor delivery systems, pressure control systems, and ultrasonic control systems. Its flow control technology products are primarily used in semiconductor, flat panel display manufacturing, and similar thin-film applications; fiber optics; safe delivery systems; and silica industries. In addition, Advanced Energy Industries provides thermal instrumentation products, which consist of thermal management and control solutions that are used in physical vapor deposition, chemical vapor deposition, rapid thermal processing, and other semiconductor applications requiring non-contact temperature measurement. Further, it offers source technology products, including plasma and ion beam sources, which are used in the direct deposition of thin films of diamond-like carbon, ion-assisted deposition, ion beam etching, optical coating, industrial coating, pre-cleaning, and chamber cleaning. Advanced Energy Industries sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado.

Semiconductor related products relate to nearly 70% of their sales. Aggressive expansion into solar power control systems (now only less than 5% of revs, with room for lots of growth) and other new markets should allow for very fast growth in coming years. Profits tripled on 26% sales increase in 2006. Consensus earnings estimates are down a bit for 2007, but only because the company is facing much higher taxes. Operating income is expected to show double digit growth.

I really doubt this will turn into a stock on fire, so I'm not sure you'd be that interested, but should prove to be a very solid long term investment, IMO.

They also have very little LT debt and $3/share cash.

Re IEAM:  Another hugh insider buy just a couple of minutes ago.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000116694407000002/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml

IEAM's about to blow up.

Please add EGR to the poll once again.

MED closed off it's high of day, but still closed in the upper half of it's range, with a very respectable 4.43% gain through todays market turmoil, on increasing volume again. What do you guys think?

Thanks for that link buddjas.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070328/0232262.html

RNO, gonna be a great day.  Glad I had the guts to hold through earnings.  (Thanks David!)

Rio Narcea Reports Record Year-End 2006 Results-Net Income of $70.7 Million, Up $112.9 Million Over 2005

$0.29 for Q406 vs. ($0.08) for Q405

Extrapolated, RNO is perhaps a 5-bagger.  $0.29 * 4 * (avg. PE 20) = $23.2

Now trading at $4.01.   23.2/4.01 = 5.78

Recent earnings do not include the crazy increase in nickel prices over last couple months.  RNO is 60% nickel.

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 28, 2007, 04:31:52 PM
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070328/0232262.html

RNO, gonna be a great day.  Glad I had the guts to hold through earnings.  (Thanks David!)

Rio Narcea Reports Record Year-End 2006 Results-Net Income of $70.7 Million, Up $112.9 Million Over 2005

$0.29 for Q406 vs. ($0.08) for Q405

Extrapolated, RNO is perhaps a 5-bagger.  $0.29 * 4 * (avg. PE 20) = $23.2

Now trading at $4.01.   23.2/4.01 = 5.78

Recent earnings do not include the crazy increase in nickel prices over last couple months.  RNO is 60% nickel.

I owned RNO a while back and sold at 3.60. :(

I bought RNO back after the earnings report.... which ooks great :)

Regarding COGN, for those that don't know, their business is software applications for finance, in the line of Peoplesoft, the company that was recently bought by Oracle.

There are rumours of being bought by Oracle, IBM or SAP.

The business is growing very fast, and they have the advantage of their software can be implemented at any ERP. Now image, for every ERP client, there is a potential client of a Business Intelligent (BI) application...and COGN is one of the best at the field.

Let's see

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 28, 2007, 03:39:41 PM
Re IEAM:  Another hugh insider buy just a couple of minutes ago.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000116694407000002/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml

IEAM's about to blow up.

I do believe you are correct!
- Large institutional and insider buying.
- Margins may double
- Sales look like 100 million fy06 reported June 07  up from 30 million. fy 08 is predicted to continue similiar strong growth.
- Management has streamlined operations, expanding into SE US
- focused on margin expansion
- will be announcing, within a few weeks, the details of a marketing agreement with a major oil co, which will increase sales about 25% at a margin higher than their historical margin. At the same time they will be discontinuing there low end, low margin product line.
- Management indicates revenue growth Q2 1.4 million Q3 2 million, Q4 may approach 4 million. - Management owns 24% of co
- CEO takes zero pay in cash, is betting everything on company growth. 
- Chart looks like a flat liner, but given the buying pressure, looks like this one could double in the next twelve months. 

If I get a chance I will try to put the numbers in a table format this evening or tomorrow morning. 

Quote from: ravenquork on March 28, 2007, 06:12:25 PM

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 28, 2007, 03:39:41 PM
Re IEAM:  Another hugh insider buy just a couple of minutes ago.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000116694407000002/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml

IEAM's about to blow up.

I do believe you are correct!
- Large institutional and insider buying.
- Margins may double
- Sales look like 100 million fy06 reported June 07  up from 30 million. fy 08 is predicted to continue similiar strong growth.
- Management has streamlined operations, expanding into SE US
- focused on margin expansion
- will be announcing, within a few weeks, the details of a marketing agreement with a major oil co, which will increase sales about 25% at a margin higher than their historical margin. At the same time they will be discontinuing there low end, low margin product line.
- Management indicates revenue growth Q2 1.4 million Q3 2 million, Q4 may approach 4 million. - Management owns 24% of co
- CEO takes zero pay in cash, is betting everything on company growth. 
- Chart looks like a flat liner, but given the buying pressure, looks like this one could double in the next twelve months. 

If I get a chance I will try to put the numbers in a table format this evening or tomorrow morning. 

You guys convinced me that IEAM is definitely worth a close look. It's got my vote in the poll.

how about LMRA,david?

here is my humble attempt to RNO analysis

Summary:
Graph show bullish trend.
No dillution in past 3 year.
Company has blow out 2006 full year EPS and increasing Net margin.
Balance sheet is bit weak as current ratio < 2. But it is more than 1. Like to see > 2
Increasing Revenue and has maintaining Gross margin.
P/S is 1.41, while industry has 10. Undervalued stock.
I found that this stock shall produce 30% return for next 10 year.
Short term bullish. Good outlook. Cheap stock.

Attachment has more details.

Good morning, great analysis :o

Today's winner was IEAM.

IEAM.OB, as with many OTCBB traded stocks, is very tricky. In the CEO's words, their business is "buying mediocre businesses" and turning them into acceptable businesses. It is an holding company with several subsidiaries, with revenues and margins varying a lot between them.

The big drop in early December was due to auditors and the CFO resigning. It seems they resigned because of weak internal controls that still come as a big warning in the latest 10-Q, but nobody knows the real reasons. It would be important to find out.

On the plus side come the very appealing projections the CEO made at the B.Riley & Co. presentation, in early March, saying revenues will grow from $17 M in fiscal Q2 2007 (the October - December quarter), to $25 M in Q3 and then to $35 M in Q4:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34954;image)

EBITDA is expected to also grow a lot:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34955;image)

Another interesting issue is that management says their results have been impaired by non cash expenses due to convertible debentures being converted, but that will be gone in two quarters or so, and then the EBITDA number would almost all go down to the bottom line, which means fiscal Q4 2007 (the quarter ended in June 2007) would show about $7 M in net income. With about 15 million shares outstanding, this would mean EPS of about $0.47, in one quarter, as buddjas1 says. For a full year it would mean $1.87 EPS, and the stock closed yesterday at $6.11.

This seems just great, but I have doubts. I wasn't in the mood of buying an OTCBB traded stock, even less being a complex holding company where the CFO and Auditors recently resigned. Because insider purchases don't make me more confident, I've seen OTCBB companies do that trick too often. And they're not open market purchases, as buddjas1 noticed.

I couldn't make a video analysis on IEAM.OB, the numbers are not clean enough. But I believe there's enough material here and on other threads in 3 Stocks for the more risk tolerant traders/investors in this board to take action if they want.

I've been learning to be more risk averse and play safe. I'm not looking for spectacular short term gains on a small OTCBB stock, but for reliable and consistent profits year after year.

Therefore I'll pass this opportunity, good luck to the holders of the stock, I hope it shoots to the moon(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34956;image)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 29, 2007, 07:42:19 AM
The big drop in early December was due to auditors and the CFO resigning. It seems they resigned because of weak internal controls that still come as a big warning in the latest 10-Q, but nobody knows the real reasons. It would be important to find out.
I wasn't in the mood of buying an OTCBB traded stock, even less being a complex holding company where the CFO and Auditors recently resigned. Because insider purchases don't make me more confident, I've seen OTCBB companies do that trick too often. And they're not open market purchases, as buddjas1 noticed.

Thanks for your comments.  The CFO "resigned" and the auditors were replaced because IEAM was (is) having trouble filing the 10Qs on time.  If you listen to the last several conference calls, the president forshadowed the change, finding the company's inability to file 10Qs on time as unacceptable.  My calls into IR confirmed that.  I do not draw anything negative (only positive) from the changes. 

Regarding the non-open market purchases, the company has been clearing out outstanding warrants, both through purchases with company $$ (the buyback program) and with non-open market purchases of the warrants by individuals and institutions.  I applaud those efforts.

One more comment, the big drop in price started on Dec. 4, 2006.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=IEAM.OB&a=01&b=11&c=2005&d=02&e=29&f=2007&g=d

That was the day IEAM posted its 10Q, which was way late.  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000135471706000102/0001354717-06-000102-index.htm
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000135471706000094/nt10q.htm

As a result, the CFO was replaced, that same day.  http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/061204/109787.html

The results were not up to some shareholder's standards.  A major shareholder dumped all the shares in one day.  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059677/000091957406004919/d729219_13g-a.txt


The new auditor was not announced until Dec. 8, 2006.  http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/061208/110156.html

QuoteThanks for your comments.  The CFO "resigned" and the auditors were replaced because IEAM was (is) having trouble filing the 10Qs on time.  If you listen to the last several conference calls, the president forshadowed the change, finding the company's inability to file 10Qs on time as unacceptable.  My calls into IR confirmed that.  I do not draw anything negative (only positive) from the changes.

Regarding the non-open market purchases, the company has been clearing out outstanding warrants, both through purchases with company $$ (the buyback program) and with non-open market purchases of the warrants by individuals and institutions.  I applaud those efforts.

Good points buddjas1 :)

I don't know the company as well as you do. I'll keep studying it and maybe buy it a good $1 or $2 above the current price.

But the chart below is worrisome, they're already talking about 15 million shares outstanding. I've seen the "insider buying" and "buyback program" trick several times as a way to mask heavy dilution.

The balance sheet says IEAM has $1.7 M in cash, $13.1 M in receivables and $6.15 M in inventories. As current liabilities I see $5.67 M of current maturities of long term debt, $2.58 M of current maturities of long term debt related parties and $7.4 M of accounts payable. I see a serious short term liquidity problem here that doesn't combine well with a "buyback program".

I remain suspicious. But maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am. But risk is too high for my taste. Good luck :)