I don't have time now to make a full video analysis before the open, but I want to recommend ALDN to buy today. The valuation model results show me a 46.9% share price CAGR and an optimal selling price of $38.61. The stock closed at $19 on Thursday:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35304;image)
I liked it even before the big news on Thursday and today:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys Call scheduled for 8:30 am ET today (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/79334.html)
CCBN (Thu, Apr 5)
• Unisys to Deploy 28,000 Aladdin eToken Smart Cards for Integrated Physical/Data Access (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070409/aqm014a.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:30am)
This is a $278 M software security company with 16% net profit margin. These two headlines and the hearing of Thursday's conference call tell me revenue growth will accelerate to 30% or more. There are no specific details, revenue growth can be a lot more or somewhat less. Either way, as I said in the beginning, I would love it even before the recent news.
I'll complete this analysis with more details over the upcoming updates.
The Trading Plan is:
Buy 6.66% of capital in ALDN.
as always ;D:
1)
Aladdin Knowledge Systems "buy," target price raised
Tuesday, January 23, 2007 1:50:05 AM ET
Dougherty & Company
NEW YORK, January 23 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Dougherty & Company reiterate their "buy" rating on Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ALDN.NAS). The target price has been raised from $18.50 to $20.
2)
Aladdin Knowledge Systems "buy," target price raised
Thursday, April 05, 2007 3:15:27 PM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, April 5 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ticker: ALDN). The target price has been raised from $22 to $24.
Attached you will have the Quarterly Total Revenue (unaudited), EPS Per Quarter (unaudited) and Yearly Cash Flow From Operations (unaudited).
regards
Oliver
fyi another upgrade:
Aladdin Knowledge Systems ALDN Dougherty & Company Buy $20 » $27
Thanks for posting analysts views La-Onda :)
I made the complete in depth video analysis for ALDN, which you can find at our Video Analysis section (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/video_coverage.php).
Current estimates and model results came in a bit better than on my initial post. Here's my current view of the future, based on the video analysis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35367;image)
I'll keep holding ALDN.
I'm short on time for these updates today, but over the following ones I want to know this company's products better. As I look around its website I like what I see: www.aladdin.com
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Over the next few updates I'll go over the various phases of deriving estimates for ALDN. Even though I did it on the video analysis posted on the second update, it doesn't harm to do it again, step by step.
Since I'm always getting late to this ALDN update, starting tomorrow, I'll start from the bottom of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) to the top, the next day from the top to the bottom, next from the bottom to the top, and on and on. This way I make sure I cover all stocks in the same way.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
>:D >:D >:D
cheers
Oliver
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Announces Share Buy Back Program
Thursday April 12, 7:55 am ET
Board of Directors authorizes share repurchases of up to $10 Million
TEL AVIV, Israel, April 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, strong authentication and content security solutions, today announced the Company's Board of Directors has authorized the use of the Company's available cash to repurchase its ordinary shares periodically in the open market, based on market conditions, share price and other factors. Aladdin is authorized to repurchase Ordinary Shares of the Company for an aggregate purchase price not to exceed $10,000,000 or for a maximum aggregate of 500,000 shares.
Yanki Margalit, Chairman and CEO of Aladdin Knowledge Systems, stated, "Aladdin's Board of Directors has approved the share buy back program based on the Company's strong cash flow from operations, healthy cash position and the fundamental value the Company believes is represented in the current share price. Today's announcement demonstrates Aladdin's commitment to enhancing long-term value for all our shareholders."
Purchases shall be made in compliance with the applicable provisions of Section 302 of the Israeli Companies Law, 1999, the applicable provisions of Rule 10b-18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and Regulation M promulgated under the Exchange Act. In accordance with the Israeli law, shares to be purchased by the Company under the buy back program shall not confer upon the Company any voting rights (although entitle the Company to participation rights upon distribution). As of March 31, 2007 Aladdin had approximately 14,691,738 ordinary shares outstanding.
Thanks for posting that excellent news for ALDN la-onda. The CEO talked about the possibility of a share buy back program over the latest conference call, with one analyst insisting a lot on the issue, and now just a few days later we get this announcement:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems to buy back up to $10 mln of shares (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=11vg30000/*http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh41304_2007-04-12_12-12-38_wnas6134_newsml)
at Reuters (Thu 8:12am)
This news will prompt me to lower the dilution factor on my valuation model from 1.03 to 1:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35520;image)
The estimated share price CAGR is now 59.5% and the optimal selling price today is $52.01.
(now I see that on the previous model calculation there was an error in a formula, the EPS
estimate was considering the initial share count instead of the final share count, that's why you see no improvement from the previous model calculation, but there was an improvement)
ALDN has been moving higher ever since I bought it, as fundamental analysis shows the stock is way undervalued. I'll keep holding ALDN.
David, ALDN seems to be a great pick. However, I think it will be very useful if we can have optimal selling price for each holding during each update, this will ensure weak hands and will help new subscriber to put money where they can feel more bang for the buck. Or, it can find its way into the portfolio tables. Again this will be very helpful.
Quote from: stocky on April 13, 2007, 02:20:32 AM
David, ALDN seems to be a great pick. However, I think it will be very useful if we can have optimal selling price for each holding during each update, this will ensure weak hands and will help new subscriber to put money where they can feel more bang for the buck. Or, it can find its way into the portfolio tables. Again this will be very helpful.
Yes stocky, we're already getting to that optimal organization, but thanks for reinforcing the utility of showing/running the valuation model for all updates on all holdings.
ALDN is the third of three Israeli companies in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), and look how the other two (SILC and CIMT) have been performing :o
Israel, a very small country is benefiting a lot from globalization and free markets. These guys sure know how to make money, as they've been doing it for centuries.
Anyway, ALDN, a $292 M small cap, is truly undervalued, as one can see from my valuation model:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35620;image)
The expected share price CAGR is 60.1% and the optimal selling price today is $52.41.
Look how analysts have been raising their estimates for ALDN:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35621;image)
According to my estimates they'll need to revise those expectations even higher.
I'll keep on holding ALDN.
Slowly but surely ALDN keeps moving higher, correcting some of the inefficiency in its valuation, but my valuation model says I should keep holding ALDN until the optimal selling price, which currently stands at $52.37:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35703;image)
I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN keeps pushing higher, despite what some technical analysts could call an "overbought condition". I totally ignore "overbought" or "oversold" conditions, those are just terms to deviate a person from what truly makes him money, the technical trend and the attractiveness of fundamentals.
ALDN continues to close the gap between the current share price and the optimal selling price, but it is still a long way to go:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35747;image)
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Largest Chinese Provider of Intelligent Pattern Recognition Solutions Chooses Aladdin HASP
Wednesday April 18, 6:30 am ET
Up to 18,000 Aladdin HASP keys to provide valuable anti-piracy protection and secure licensing capabilities for Beijing-based Hanwang Technology Co. Ltd.
CHICAGO, April 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, and secure Web gateways, today announced that Beijing-based Hanwang Technology Co. Ltd., the largest provider of intelligent recognition solutions in China, will deploy up to 18,000 Aladdin HASP software protection keys to secure Hanwang products against piracy and unauthorized use.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20040416/CGALADDINLOGO )
Hanwang's innovative products, such as its latest Writing Tablet solutions, give users the power to quickly and easily input Chinese and Japanese handwriting into more than 100 software applications. The Aladdin HASP USB key allows Hanwang to sell and distribute their solutions as, when and where they need without compromising their products' security. Recognized as one of the top 100 Chinese industrial software companies, Hanwang is one of hundreds of HASP customers in China that rely on HASP's innovative licensing and protection capabilities to protect IP and ensure license compliance.
"As a company that prides itself on unique innovation, we employ only the strongest, proven technologies to assist in our business," said Mr. Li Zhi Feng, vice president at Hanwang Technology. "We are extremely satisfied with the performance and quality of Aladdin HASP solutions and highly value its reliability and security."
"Gaining well-known customers such as Hanwang, Aladdin HASP continues to experience ongoing growth throughout China," said Avi Barir, vice president of software DRM at Aladdin Knowledge Systems. "As China sprouts more and more leading software companies, HASP's presence in the region gains ongoing strength -- illustrating HASP's reliability, flexibility and market superiority. We're pleased to announce Hanwang as one of the latest Chinese software companies to select Aladdin HASP."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070418/aqw058.html?.v=7 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070418/aqw058.html?.v=7)
Look'in good
Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed*
Aladdin Knowledge Systems ALDN Friedman Billings Outperform $22 » $25
uc.
Thanks for posting the news Se7en and usedcasting :)
Those were indeed good news, making the stock jump another 2.38% today. The stock price chart below looks like one of those that people have an hard time buying, they think "this stock was down there just a couple of weeks ago, why should I buy it this high now?", not understanding the stock is actually cheaper now than when it was down there, because fundamentals improved a lot more than what the share price rose so far.
I say this because the news out on April 5 (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/79334.html) has lead me to believe revenues will grow 30% a year going forward, instead of the historical 11% rate.
The valuation model says ALDN (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) is the 5th most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), with a % to exit estimate of 147%. I'll keep on holding ALDN.
ALDN cut to neutral from buy by UBS.
Quote from: soxguy on April 19, 2007, 09:05:28 AM
ALDN cut to neutral from buy by UBS.
Thanks for posting that downgrade soxguy. People were eager to take profits on ALDN (as they always are when gaining). The stock closed the gap it had left open, volume picked up even more, and no doubt the bull trend will continue. I will also continue holding ALDN.
Not to belabor options expiration/downgrade theory, but isn't it just a little coincidental that the downgrade comes just as Aldn was approaching the April $22.50 call? Again,it makes one go Hmmm.
Quote from: soxguy on April 20, 2007, 11:29:11 AM
Not to belabor options expiration/downgrade theory, but isn't it just a little coincidental that the downgrade comes just as Aldn was approaching the April $22.50 call? Again,it makes one go Hmmm.
I agree soxguy, no doubt options and option players play a role in the short term evolution of stock prices, but over the long term only the fundamental economic value of companies matters.
After putting a strong foot in India:
• Aladdin Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90)
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 4)
... ALDN closed a nice deal in China:
• Largest Chinese Provider of Intelligent Pattern Recognition Solutions Chooses Aladdin HASP (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070418/aqw058.html?.v=7)
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 18)
I believe fighting piracy is and will continue to be one of the major concerns of software companies. ALDN has the answer: http://www.aladdin.com/HASP/
My valuation model calls for 30% average annual revenue growth (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) between now and 2009 for ALDN. I believe this is reasonable and will lead ALDN shares higher at a 58% compound annual growth rate.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Nothing new happened on ALDN yesterday, as the stock was barely changed on low volume of 54,400 shares. Also no new fundamental information.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
We'll probably get some more highlights to ALDN's financial performance in May 9, when the company hosts its 2007 analyst day:
• Aladdin to Host 2007 Analyst Day in New York (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070417/aqtu015.html?.v=14)
PR Newswire (Tue, Apr 17)
Or maybe we'll get Q1 results before that, since Q1 2006 results were out in April 24. Either way, ALDN is the 4th best stock in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), so no doubts I'll keep holding it.
I have nothing new to add to previous updates, just leaving the updated chart for ALDN.
ALDN continues to consolidate the recent bull run. The valuation model says the stock is quite attractive:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36243;image)
I'll keep on holding ALDN.
fyi:
ALDN: To Release Q1 Results Apr 30 [BMO]
Saturday , April 28, 2007 06:00ET
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq NM: ALDN) is scheduled to release its Q1 financial results on April 30, 2007, before the market opens (BMO).
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q1 Revenue: $23.94 million
Q1 EPS: $0.28 per share
PREVIOUS PERIOD:
Prev Q1 Revenue: $22.88 million
Prev Q1 EPS: $0.28 per share
Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.
Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 01:10:46 AM
Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.
Is that so? Well, I hope you're wrong, we'll know in a couple of hours. Even if this quarter is slow it doesn't mean much for the future, which I expect to be bright for ALDN. Thank you for your opinion :)
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Monday April 30, 7:00 am ET
Record Quarterly Revenues of $25.2 Million
GAAP Net Income of $3.9 Million or $0.26 Per Diluted Share
TEL AVIV, Israel, April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, and secure Web gateways, today announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2007, ended March 31, 2007.
Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were a record $25.2 million, an increase of 10 percent from $22.9 million for the same period in 2006. Software DRM revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $17.0 million, an increase of 6 percent from $16.1 million in the same period in 2006. Enterprise Security revenues for the first quarter were $8.2 million, a 21 percent increase from $6.8 million recorded in the same period in 2006.
Net income in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) for the first quarter of 2007 was $3.9 million or $0.26 per basic and diluted share and compared to first quarter of 2006 GAAP net income of $3.8 million or $0.26 per basic share and $0.25 per diluted share. GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2007 included $0.4 million for stock based compensation expenses compared to $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2006.
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $93.9 million at March 31, 2007, up $3.1 million from $90.9 million reported at the end of 2006. The increase was mainly attributable to positive cash flow from operations during the first fiscal quarter 2007 of $3.9 million.
Yanki Margalit, Chairman and CEO of Aladdin Knowledge Systems stated, "Aladdin's strong first quarter results, highlighted by record quarterly revenues and strong cash flow generation, provide an excellent foundation for growth in 2007. We experienced increased demand across our portfolio of innovative Software DRM and Enterprise Security solutions that protect digital assets and enable secure business. Aladdin continued to announce important product enhancements and innovations, including the general availability of HASP SRM and enhancements to our eToken line that will be rolled out later this year. In addition, our strategy and commitment to developing new markets was rewarded with recently announced eSafe and eToken deals in India, which offer significant long-term potential benefits to the Company.
"Overall, we are very pleased with the start to the year. Our strong first quarter financial performance, combined with our recently announced share buyback program of up to $10 million, reflects our commitment to delivering value to our shareholders," concluded Margalit.
Financial and Operating Highlights
-- Record quarterly revenues of $25.2 million.
-- Enterprise Security business revenues increase 21% year-over-year to
$8.2 million.
-- Cash flow from operating activities totaled $3.9 million.
-- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities increased by $3.1
million to $93.9 million.
-- Aladdin expanded its global presence by establishing an office in
Shanghai, China to support its ongoing growth in the country.
Quarterly Product Highlights
-- Aladdin announced general availability of HASP SRM, the first software
protection system to offer customers both hardware-and software-based
security from a single solution.
-- Launched HASP HL Drive, an innovative USB device that allows software
vendors to protect, license and deliver their software applications,
drivers and data to end-users using a single USB key.
-- Formed a Software DRM advisory board to provide Aladdin with insight
and recommendations for the direction of the software DRM market and
tools for success.
-- Announced new eToken authentication solution products and enhancements
to be launched throughout 2007. These include new devices, broadest
client platform support for PKI, full Single Sign-On solution and
enhanced authentication management tools.
-- Announced deployment of up to 8,000 eTokens by leading Indian bank,
Punjab National Bank.
-- Announced general availability of Aladdin eSafe Hellgate appliance, the
Company's first gateway-based content security solution for the SMB
market.
-- Released eSafe Web Threat Analyzer (WTA), a unique tool that exposes
content security vulnerabilities in an organization's network and
provides a detailed audit report of potential and real threats that
bypass existing security solutions.
-- Announced deployments of Aladdin's eSafe SecureSurfing(TM) solution by
several ISPs including:
- Internet Solution & Service Provider Co, Ltd., one of Thailand's
largest ISPs, which is using the eSafe SecureSurfing solution to
provide business customers with the country's first clean pipe
Internet access.
- Green Dot Limited, the second largest ISP in Trinidad and Tobago,
which is using the SecureSurfing to provide clean pipe Internet
access.
For further information on product highlights, please refer to the press room on the Company's Web site which can be found at http://www.Aladdin.com/about/pressroom.asp.
Future Business Outlook
At this time, while management is optimistic regarding the positive potential impact from the recently announced CIITE deal, the Company is not yet in a position to forecast the full impact this deal will have on Aladdin's fiscal year 2007 revenue and earnings per share guidance. Until the Company receives further insight on this impact, Aladdin's management reiterates its previously announced guidance. Revenues for fiscal year 2007 are estimated at $95 million to $102 million. The Company reported $89 million in revenue in fiscal year 2006.
Fiscal year 2007 GAAP diluted earnings per share are also expected to be in line with the Company's previously stated guidance range of $0.90 to $1.09. In line with the variable nature of quarterly stock-based compensation, the Company currently anticipates these expenses to be in the range of $0.4 million to $0.6 million per quarter. The Company reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.93 in fiscal year 2006.
Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17
Thanks for posting the results La-Onda :)
Revenues came in higher than expected, at $25.178 M compared to the $23.96 M expected by analysis. EPS came in light, at $0.26, compared to $0.28 expected by the 7 analysts covering the stock, on average.
I like the way they talked about 2007 prospects:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36340;image)
So, we're looking at roughly $1 EPS as the floor. I believe the India deal can provide a lot of upside to this number. Another interesting part is how ALDN is valued at about 21 times 2007 earnings, but the Security Software & Services (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ALDN) industry average earnings multiple is 38.54.
Another thing I enjoyed and corroborates my valuation model estimates in terms of the dilution factor is the reduction in the # of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36341;image)
I don't know how the stock will react today, but everything seems to be on track and I'll maintain my estimates on the valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main), which tell me ALDN is very attractive at this point. I'll continue holding ALDN.
Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 07:27:42 AM
Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17
Nope, up 0.8% to $21, I hope you didn't scare anybody with your bearish talk. Anyway, keep up posting your views, a bit of debate can only improve the 3 Stocks premium service, I guess. Thanks :)
I've listened to the Q1 conference call and here are some highlights:
- Shipments and revenues from the Indian deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90) are expected to start in Q3, still no impact in Q2. Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year and probably there will be a slight revenue and profit decline in that quarter;
- The revenue and EPS guidance they gave still doesn't take into account the Indian deal that will have a very material impact on the company's revenues and profits, so we can expect higher than $102 M revenue and more than $1.09 EPS for 2007, they just don't know by how much, that's why they're still not updating guidance;
- They still didn't buy any of the $10 M share buyback program they just announced. They waited for the Q1 results, will now give the authorization to start buying. They're only buying back about 10% of their cash reserves, so they say there can be more share buyback programs in the future, especially if they continue to generate strong cash flow;
- The CEO says they need the cash because they're studying M&A opportunities;
- They expect to announce more very large new clients (Fortune 500 clients) in Q2 2007;
- Europe accounts for 58% of sales, so the company benefits from a stronger euro versus the USD;
- The Indian deal will probably spread across three years. What we're talking about here are 3.8 million e-Tokens. I investigated a bit, and here's how much e-Tokens cost:
Price List for e-Token (http://www.internet-security.ag/gen/dns/etoken/)
Say they're going to sell 3.8 million e-Token for $30 each, this deal alone means $114 M, divided by three years would mean $38 M a year. This alone gives us the 30% average annual revenue growth I'm estimating on my valuation model, but probably the other parts of the business will also grow.
I remain confident in my projections for ALDN (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main). I'll continue holding the stock.
Nothing new on ALDN, everything seems to be going well and as expected, I'll keep holding ALDN.
After what I've heard over the conference call ...
QuoteI've listened to the Q1 conference call and here are some highlights:
- Shipments and revenues from the Indian deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90) are expected to start in Q3, still no impact in Q2. Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year and probably there will be a slight revenue and profit decline in that quarter;
- The revenue and EPS guidance they gave still doesn't take into account the Indian deal that will have a very material impact on the company's revenues and profits, so we can expect higher than $102 M revenue and more than $1.09 EPS for 2007, they just don't know by how much, that's why they're still not updating guidance;
- They still didn't buy any of the $10 M share buyback program they just announced. They waited for the Q1 results, will now give the authorization to start buying. They're only buying back about 10% of their cash reserves, so they say there can be more share buyback programs in the future, especially if they continue to generate strong cash flow;
- The CEO says they need the cash because they're studying M&A opportunities;
- They expect to announce more very large new clients (Fortune 500 clients) in Q2 2007;
- Europe accounts for 58% of sales, so the company benefits from a stronger euro versus the USD;
- The Indian deal will probably spread across three years. What we're talking about here are 3.8 million e-Tokens. I investigated a bit, and here's how much e-Tokens cost:
Price List for e-Token (http://www.internet-security.ag/gen/dns/etoken/)
Say they're going to sell 3.8 million e-Token for $30 each, this deal alone means $114 M, divided by three years would mean $38 M a year. This alone gives us the 30% average annual revenue growth I'm estimating on my valuation model, but probably the other parts of the business will also grow.
... there's nothing else to do but to sit tight and keep on holding ALDN.
I wonder who keeps selling shares at the open, to then see the stock claw back up. ALDN bull trend is set to continue after the two weeks or so pause. I was somewhat reassured that the Indian deal alone will probably provide the 30% revenue CAGR that I need for my long term estimates, but we still need confirmation on that, which will probably be released over the Q2 earnings release.
I'll keep holding ALDN, the risk to my estimates (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) is on the upside.
ALDN is now the 5th most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), with an estimated share price CAGR of 58.15% (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main). Technically the stock just broke out to new highs on decent volume of 156,900 shares.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
Finally the early morning bears got away with it and ALDN closed 2% down on the day. Fundamentally nothing changed and ALDN is the 5th most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio. I'll keep on holding it.
Even though the company still didn't release the financial details of the Indian deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90), my take is that deal alone will provide the 30% compound annual revenue growth rate (revenue CAGR) that I have estimated on my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main), so I only see upside to my estimates, which already show a very attractive proposition in holding shares of ALDN.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
News
Frost & Sullivan Names Aladdin HASP Market Leader in Software Digital Rights Management Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10)
Aladdin HASP Receives 2007 Global Frost & Sullivan Award for Product Innovation
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15)
Quote from: Se7en on May 09, 2007, 06:48:37 AM
News
Frost & Sullivan Names Aladdin HASP Market Leader in Software Digital Rights Management Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10)
Aladdin HASP Receives 2007 Global Frost & Sullivan Award for Product Innovation
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15)
Thanks for posting the news Se7en :)
«In its April 2007 analysis (N1AF-70), titled "World Content Protection and Digital Rights Management Markets," Frost & Sullivan
lists Aladdin HASP's market share as leading far ahead of competitors. The research states, "
Aladdin stood out as the market leader in the software DRM market commanding well over a third of the total market share. The company has been enjoying enormous growth year on year, which can be attributed to its focus on technology innovation. The company offers both a hardware- and software-based protection and licensing solution, thus allowing customers to easily integrate the solution in conjunction with their workflow model. The unique capability offered by the solution has enabled Aladdin to effectively penetrate the market over the years and gain a strong foothold in the industry."»
And ALDN closed at a new high. Just let the profits run.
ALDN joined the "take profits" train yesterday, but fundamentally the company is worth a lot more, as you can see from reading this thread, I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN will probably give us some more details about the Indian deal over the Q2 results, but I'm positive this deal alone will be enough to justify the 30% revenue CAGR I have on my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main).
The other estimates I have on the model are more or less the historical norm, so I don't see much risk to those.
So, I see ALDN at $83.34 three years from now and I'll only take profits at the optimal selling price of $53.39 (the price where the stock would start returning less than 16% a year).
As I see it, the risk to my estimates on ALDN is to the upside.
Quote from: yukiii on May 15, 2007, 01:35:19 AM
Will buy tomorrow under $21if I am lucky.
I think so yukiii, the stock closed at $21.05. I'm glad you're joining us on ALDN, but I'm curious ... what made you change your mind about ALDN?
Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 01:10:46 AM
Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.
Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 07:27:42 AM
Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17
Thanks :)
My valuation model says ALDN is very attractive (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main), with a 58.2% share price CAGR expected for the next three years. I'm still waiting for the financial details of the huge India deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90), perhaps we'll get them only when they update their full year guidance in Q2 earnings presentation.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
The 50 EMA has been moving up. ALDN has been holding up better Then I thought.
it lookds like we have a bullish doji star, and according to the fast stochastic chart it is oversold.
Picked up some today, Looks like the Russell hit support today, should recover from here.
Some goods buys in small caps today. WPCS, EGO
I'm not so sure buying the dips anymore (on anything but the very strongest stocks) will be a good strategy. $RUT still below Feb high. Market seems to be faltering.....
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 15, 2007, 03:56:34 PM
I'm not so sure buying the dips anymore (on anything but the very strongest stocks) will be a good strategy. $RUT still below Feb high. Market seems to be faltering.....
Hi BigSully1, you know I'm not in the market timing business anymore, but I read an interesting article on the subject today: Contrarians still smiling (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA5033342%2D6937%2D4AD6%2D807B%2D3FDF797955A4%7D&siteid=nwhpf)
As for ALDN, yukiii has been buying it, probably we're getting to a short term low. Long term fundamental value (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) is much higher.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 15, 2007, 05:57:14 PM
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 15, 2007, 03:56:34 PM
I'm not so sure buying the dips anymore (on anything but the very strongest stocks) will be a good strategy. $RUT still below Feb high. Market seems to be faltering.....
Hi BigSully1, you know I'm not in the market timing business anymore, but I read an interesting article on the subject today: Contrarians still smiling (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA5033342%2D6937%2D4AD6%2D807B%2D3FDF797955A4%7D&siteid=nwhpf)
As for ALDN, yukiii has been buying it, probably we're getting to as short term low. Long term fundamental value (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) is much higher.
Good article David. thanks.
QuoteGood article David. thanks.
You're welcome BigSully1 :)
ALDN is going through a normal corrective process, mainly because there were no news lately and people need to know the financial details of the Indian deal to see the light on ALDN. To me ALDN is the 4th best stock of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), with the optimal exit 160% above the current share price, so I'll keep on holding ALDN.
We had the following news today on ALDN:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems to Present at Three Investor Conferences (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070517/aqth501.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Thu 9:06am)
ALDN really needs to speak out about its story, since the stock is terribly undervalued at this point. Perhaps they will shed some more light about the Indian deal, my best hope for revenue growth to go from 10% a year to 30% a year, for the next three years.
My valuation model says the ALDN will be at $80 in late 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main), I'll continue holding it.
Written by: Andrey Glukhov CFA
Released: 5/10/2007
Provider: Brean Murray & Co., Inc.
Our key take-aways from Aladdin™s analyst day are as follows:- Turn-around in North America in progress, but will take time. We believe the company is taking the right steps to turn around its US business. However, we believe near-term growth rates will still be depressed. The company is executing on a transition from direct to indirect distribution for its enterprise security business. In addition, the company's initial sales leadership change in the US did not work out ...
Quote from: yukiii on May 17, 2007, 11:35:19 PM
Written by: Andrey Glukhov CFA
Released: 5/10/2007
Provider: Brean Murray & Co., Inc.
Our key take-aways from Aladdin™s analyst day are as follows:- Turn-around in North America in progress, but will take time. We believe the company is taking the right steps to turn around its US business. However, we believe near-term growth rates will still be depressed. The company is executing on a transition from direct to indirect distribution for its enterprise security business. In addition, the company's initial sales leadership change in the US did not work out ...
Thanks for the information yukiii, but what do they say about India? The US is losing importance for the company.
ALDN's management will speak at a conference tomorrow, I wonder if they'll provide some more financial details on the Indian deal (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/79334.html):
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems to Present at Three Investor Conferences (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070517/aqth501.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Thu, May 17)
Technically the stock continues to bounce from the $20.41 support level, I'll continue holding ALDN.
Our key take-aways from Aladdin's analyst day are as follows:
Turn-around in North America in progress, but will take time. We
believe the company is taking the right steps to turn around its US
business. However, we believe near-term growth rates will still be
depressed. The company is executing on a transition from direct to
indirect distribution for its enterprise security business. In addition, the
company's initial sales leadership change in the US did not work out and
the company is close to hiring another head of sales. We expect the
company's US business can show signs of recovery by 4Q07/1H08.
eSafe's ISP pipeline reportedly robust, but sales cycles remain long
and unpredictable. The company signed approximately 10 ISPs to
date, which we consider to be more Tier 3 providers. In addition, the
company has some mobile providers. Aladdin is reportedly in
discussions and pilots with larger ISP providers, but the timing of the
decisions remains unpredictable and sales cycles are very long.
Therefore, we would not expect signing significant ISPs until 2H08.
eToken continues to be solid performer, though growth
investments still penalize profitability. We continue to expect strong
performance from eToken worldwide. We believe this remains a very
strong growth option for Aladdin, though since the company continues
its aggressive investments in future opportunities, eToken business unit is
still losing money and is likely going to lose money until at least 2H08.
eToken's growth should accelerate as a function of the CIITE
deployment, though this deal is unusually large and there do not appear
any similar size deals in the near-term pipeline.
CIITE deal could represent FY07 upside, but size and timing
remain unknown. Aladdin stated its core business is on track to
achieve the upper end of the FY07 guidance (consistent with current
Street expectations), and CIITE deal is not in the numbers and
represents an upside to projections. CIITE deal has three revenue
sources – token deployment with potential of up to 3.8 million tokens,
content security kits and DVDs, and service and support revenue around
the eSafe installations. However, CIITE is still finalizing the business
model around the token roll out and, therefore, the timing of the revenue
and the reasonable assumptions around the deployment are difficult. For
instance, CIITE still has not decided whether it will pay for tokens or will
make students buy tokens. In addition, the distribution model is still
being worked out.
HASP SRM could accelerate DRM growth, but won't meaningfully contribute till at earliest 4Q07. The company
believes HASP SRM platform can return DRM growth to double-digits by introducing software components that allow it
to address new customers and deeper penetrate existing customers. At the same time, since software ASPs are
significantly lower, the company does not expect to accumulate sufficient revenue base to have meaningful impact on
numbers till at earliest 4Q07.
Keeping operating margin flat, can the company inflect the revenue growth? Aladdin reiterated that while
operating leverage is possible, the company would prefer to keep operating margin at 15-17% and step up on investments
in growth. Consequently, EPS growth will be a function of the revenue growth, which to date has been less than exciting.
The bull case would be that the company can finally significantly accelerate its revenue growth after a prolonged period of
sloppy performance. Absent of the significant revenue acceleration, we feel the shares are fairly priced if EPS growth
remains in low double-digits.
Maintaining HOLD. We believe current valuation adequately reflects the company's current growth profile,
inconsistent execution and recent strength in numbers. Therefore, until we get more proof-points that there is a
sustainable inflection in revenue, we remain on the sidelines on ALDN.
Sell ALDN buy PRFT much better growth .49 2006 .71 2007 .87 2008 25% growth
QuoteSell ALDN buy PRFT much better growth
Thanks, but no thanks. PRFT trades at 58 times 2006 EPS, ALDN trades at 23 times 2006 EPS. And I expect strong growth for ALDN too, with the revenue growth rate accelerating from 10-11% to 30% due to the Indian deal alone.
I couldn't find a link to Sunday's CIBC world markets conference, more specifically the ALDN presentation, but given the market's response, probably it went well. The next conference
will be in New York on May 30th, I hope there will be a webcast for that one.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN continues to push higher, it is just a matter of time before the stock breaks out above the $22.27 high. There wasn't any new fundamental information today. I'll keep holding ALDN.
Financial details of the Indian deal were not yet disclosed, maybe only in August when the company releases second quarter results and a new guidance for the full year of 2007. I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN continues to consolidate recent gains in a tight range. Since fundamentals seem very attractive I believe the stock will ultimately breakout on the upside. But technically it would still be bullish if the stock were to come down to test the 50 days SMA before pushing higher.
I'll continue holding ALDN for the long term.
Over the 1st quarter earnings press release, we got the following in terms of 2007 guidance:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37304;image)
So, we're looking at about $100 M revenue and $1 EPS, excluding the Indian deal. Now, that deal is huge, since we're talking about 3.8 million e-Tokens:
• Aladdin Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90)
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 4)
But eToken prices differ a lot, depending on the type of eToken, look here: eToken Prices (http://www.internet-security.ag/gen/dns/etoken/)
So, which eToken, and at what price? The company didn't disclose that information yet, here's what they had to say about this issue:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37305;image)
And again ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37306;image)
But, even without the Indian deal, we have the following revenue and EPS trends ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37307;image)
... so I'll continue holding ALDN.
I wonder if ALDN will reveal the financial details of the Indian deal only at their 2nd quarter earnings release. I wouldn't mind that, since I see the stock rising even without that deal (but it would certainly help boosting the stock).
I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN is about to breakout above the $22.27 resistance level. I feel so comfortable holding this stock, don't you? The Indian deal expectation will support it going forward, between other very attractive fundamentals, like the $93 M cash pile, for example.
Also, I enjoy their solutions to fight software piracy, they make a lot of sense to me. Check them at www.aladdin.com.
I'll keep holding ALDN for the long term.
ALDN closed just one cent shy of a new high. Fundamentally nothing changed. I'll continue holding it.
Nice bullish breakout for ALDN. No news out. I'll keep holding.
DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Cut To Sector Perform At CIBC
.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2007 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 54 AM EDT 06-04-07 Don't you know,it's always something.
Quote from: soxguy on June 04, 2007, 09:09:14 AM
DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Cut To Sector Perform At CIBC
.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2007 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 54 AM EDT 06-04-07 Don't you know,it's always something.
Thanks for the info soxguy, do you have a link? Did they justify? Looks like a nice buying opportunity, someone was left out of the bull run and wants cheap shares.
DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Was Sector Outperform At CIBC
.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2007 06:55 ET (10:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 55 AM EDT 06-04-07
**Brought to you by Scottrader, a product of Scottrade Inc** David,this is all I have,through scottrade.
QuoteDavid,this is all I have,through scottrade.
Thanks soxguy, I wonder who acts blindly on such information. ALDN down 3.4% at the open. Patience.
NEW YORK, June 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at CIBC World Markets downgrade Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ticker: ALDN) from "sector outperform" to "sector perform." The target price is set to $23.
CIBC downgraded ALDN without saying the reason, the stock opened down but recovered some ground. My take is it will take less than a week for ALDN to be at new highs above $23.
Stock is very attractive in my view, as one can see from reading this thread or considering my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main). I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN: CIBC Cuts to Sector Perform from Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $23; Analyst Notes
Monday , June 04, 2007 07:56ET
Issuer: Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (NasdaqNM: ALDN)
Analyst Firm: CIBC World Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price: $23.00
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their downgrade.
&
ALDN: Friedman Cuts to Mkt Perform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $24 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , June 05, 2007 08:29ET
Issuer: Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (NasdaqNM: ALDN)
Analyst Firm: Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Mkt Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $24.00 (-4.00% from $25.00)
Analyst Comments: Over the last six months, shares of ALDN are up roughly 30%, as the company has been able to post consistent quarterly results, coupled with the announcement of its India mega-deal and a share buyback. Given the strength of the stock since the India deal in early April, the firm believes the good news from this deal is already "baked into the stock" at current levels.
Thanks for the info la-onda (applaud).
I wonder why they're able to say "baked into the stock" when they don't know the details of the deal (unless they have inside information, but I don't think so). They speculate the deal is irrelevant, I speculate it will make ALDN's revenues rise not 10%, but 30% a year for the next three years.
CIBC is taking the stock down over the short term, but I believe it is just a short term blip.
Shares of Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd., a computer network security provider, declined on Monday after an analyst downgraded the shares on a sharply-higher stock price and no catalysts to lift shares in the near term.
CIBC World Markets analyst Shaul Eyal lowered his rating on the shares to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer," following a nearly 30 percent rise in the shares since April 2.
On April 4, the company inked a security services contract with The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education, which provides IT education in India, for an undisclosed amount. Aladdin will provide 3.8 million Consortium students with an eToken security system to access online academic services.
But Eyal said India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy.
"We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education or passed on to students, which we think may end up impacting the adoption rate," Eyal wrote.
Quote from: yukiii on June 05, 2007, 11:55:46 PM
Shares of Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd., a computer network security provider, declined on Monday after an analyst downgraded the shares on a sharply-higher stock price and no catalysts to lift shares in the near term.
CIBC World Markets analyst Shaul Eyal lowered his rating on the shares to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer," following a nearly 30 percent rise in the shares since April 2.
On April 4, the company inked a security services contract with The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education, which provides IT education in India, for an undisclosed amount. Aladdin will provide 3.8 million Consortium students with an eToken security system to access online academic services.
But Eyal said India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy.
"We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education or passed on to students, which we think may end up impacting the adoption rate," Eyal wrote.
Thanks for this yukiii. So, they don't know, but painted a bearish scenario. Now it's the negative scenario that's priced in.
But, for the argument's sake, say revenues won't grow 30%, as I expect, but just 15% (instead of the 10% historical revenue CAGR). My valuation model comes out like this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37694;image)
Still very attractive, with an optimal selling price of $35.5. Ok, I'll keep my valuation model this conservative way, and will increase estimates if there's a case for it when the company reveals the financial details of the Indian deal.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
additional info:
CIBC downgrades Aladdin: The investment house feels that the recent run-up in share price has peaked.
Tuesday , June 05, 2007 22:10ET
Amir Keidan
Jun 05, 2007 (Globes - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- CIBC Capital Markets has downgraded Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN; TASE: ALDN) to "Sector performer" from "Sector outperfomer" following a rise of nearly 30 percent in the share since April 2. CIBC analysts Shaul Eyal notes that Aladdin signed a contract with the Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education (CIITE). Aladdin will provide 3.8 million CIITE students with its eToken security system to access online academic services.
Sources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student. Eyal says that India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy".
Eyal says, "We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by CIITE or passed on to the students, which we think may end up impacting on the adoption rate."
Thanks la-onda, the new information is:
QuoteSources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student.
So, let's take the midpoint and get $47.5 M, over three years means $15.83 M a year. ALDN had $89 M in revenues in 2006, so $15.83 M more means 17.8% growth. If we add to this the 10% growth the company historically had (without this deal), we get to 29.56% growth. My initial estimate was 30%, so everything is in line with what I expected.
Let me put my valuation model back to where it was, with 30% revenue CAGR expected for the next three years:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37708;image)
ALDN is extremely attractive at this point, with an expected share price CAGR of 54.63%.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
I have nothing to add to yesterday's update. I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN came off to touch the 50 days SMA ascending support:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37793;image)
Over the previous ALDN's advance phase, there were 9 of these touches and all presented great buying opportunities:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37792;image)
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Below support, looks like its will go to $19.25 new support.
Quote from: yukiii on June 08, 2007, 02:25:37 PM
Below support, looks like its will go to $19.25 new support.
Yes, because of that CIBC downgrade, saying the Indian deal isn't all that significant, investors look at the chart and think: "this stock should go down to where it came from".
Of course, I disagree with that view, since I see the Indian deal as making annual revenues grow 30% instead of the historical 10% average, and given that my valuation model says the stock will be at $80 in late 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main).
I'll keep holding ALDN despite the short term weakness.
ALDN's chart doesn't look good, at least not for a short term trader. But I'm a strong believer in this company's products and fundamental trends, so I'll keep holding ALDN whatever happens.
Today was a very small day for ALDN, both in terms of price and volume. I'll keep holding the stock.
support is $19.43 or so
Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 10:40:43 PM
support is $19.43 or so
10 cents below today's low, almost bullseye yukiii :)
Positive news out for ALDN today:
• India's Leading MSSP Selects Aladdin eSafe to Protect Against New Breed of Internet Threats (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070613/aqw105.html?.v=7)
PR Newswire (Wed 11:30am)
The news is about the following product: eSafe SecureSurfing™ Services for Internet Service Providers (http://www.aladdin.com/esafe/SecureSurfing/SecureSurfing_isp.asp?lid=eSafe_xsp&lpos=products_menu)
No specific details were disclosed.
ALDN is back above $20.41, which is a short term positive technical development. I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN has been playing around with the technical guys, making both a bullish and a bearish false technical signal. The stock is back into the trading channel.
Now we need fundamentals, primarily clarification on the Indian deal, for the stock to have another strong push up, in my view. The Indian deal details can be out any minute now.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
From the guidance ALDN gave in Q1 earnings release:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38041;image)
You see that the future is dependent on the financial details of the following press release:
• Aladdin Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070404/cgw043.html?.v=90)
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 4)
la-onda brought us this opinion from CIBC:
«Sources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student. Eyal says that India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy".
Eyal says, "We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by CIITE or passed on to the students, which we think may end up impacting on the adoption rate."»
Say the contract is worth something in the middle, like $47.5 M. Over three years, this means $15.8 M a year.
ALDN revenues are growing about 10% a year, that is, roughly $10 M. With $15.8 M more, they'll grow about 25% per year. What I have on my estimates is 30%.
Let me reduce my revenue CAGR estimate from 1.3 to 1.25 and see what happens:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38042;image)
The optimal selling price declined from $51.29 to $45.59.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN traded just 15,600 shares today. It was the lowest volume of the past three months. So there's nothing new from a technical standpoint. Also, no news out. I'll keep holding.
ALDN keeps working to fight software piracy, the following press release was just out:
• Aladdin Expands its Market-Leading Software DRM Solution to Support Embedded Systems (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070619/aqtu045.html?.v=18)
PR Newswire (Tue 6:30am)
Quote from: David Randolph on June 19, 2007, 09:06:27 AM
ALDN keeps working to fight software piracy, the following press release was just out:
• Aladdin Expands its Market-Leading Software DRM Solution to Support Embedded Systems (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070619/aqtu045.html?.v=18)
PR Newswire (Tue 6:30am)
Yesterday's news had a bit of a positive effect on ALDN, as the stock keeps building a base for what I expect to be an advance phase. The really important news pending are the financial details of the Indian deal. I'll keep holding ALDN.
6/20/2007 6:33:10 AM *Aladdin North America Appoints David Collins As VP Of Sales For Enterprise Security Solutions [ALDN]
News Just got out . Who's David Collins ? ;D
Quote from: Garoh on June 20, 2007, 06:38:43 AM
6/20/2007 6:33:10 AM *Aladdin North America Appoints David Collins As VP Of Sales For Enterprise Security Solutions [ALDN]
News Just got out . Who's David Collins ? ;D
hahaha, great question Garoh ;D
David another good breaking news :
6/20/2007 6:47:37 AM *Aladdin Knowledge Board Increases Ordinary Share Repurchase Authorization By Up To $10 Mln [ALDN]
Aladdin doubles buyback plan to $20 million
By Robert Daniel
Last Update: 7:02 AM ET Jun 20, 2007
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd., (ALDN : aladdin knowledge sys ltd ord
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 20.58+0.10+0.49%
3:59pm 06/19/2007
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ALDN20.58, +0.10, +0.5%) the Tel Aviv provider of computer-security solutions, said the board doubled its authorization to buy back stock to $20 million. The original $10 million authorization, authorized April 1, set a maximum 500,000 shares to be bought back. The company said it's bought 465,000 shares so far; a statement didn't specify a dollar amount on those purchases. Aladdin shares closed on Tuesday at $20.58. The shares closed at $17.27 on Friday, March 30, indicating a rise since then of 19%. At March 31, Aladdin had 14.7 million shares outstanding
Great news
QuoteGreat news
This is fantastic news Garoh! It's the way the company is responding to that CIBC downgrade. 465,000 shares already bought :o
It's incredible how the market can be so inefficient at times. ALDN declined from a high of $22.97 to a low of $19.53 because CIBC world markets said the Indian deal was "baked in" the valuation of the stock. Remember they said this without knowing the specifics of the deal, and considering a wide range of possibilities. I disagreed with their view.
And management, who sure knows more than CIBC and probably won't talk to them anymore, responded today:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Increases Share Buy Back Program (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070620/aqw100.html?.v=6)
PR Newswire (Wed 6:45am)
No, they didn't do this to pump and dilute, they've done it because they already bought almost all of the prior share buyback program:
«On April 1, 2007, the Company's board authorized the repurchase of Ordinary Shares of the Company for an aggregate purchase price not to exceed $10,000,000 or for a maximum aggregate of 500,000 shares. The combined total authorization is now $20,000,000. To date, the Company has repurchased approximately 465,000 shares.
Yanki Margalit, Chairman and CEO of Aladdin Knowledge Systems, said, "Aladdin's board continues to see fundamental value represented in the current share price and the increased buy back authorization is further evidence of our commitment to enhancing long-term shareholder value."»
In just about one month and a half, the company bought back 465,000 shares. And it will buy 500,000 more. This has a positive effect on diluted earnings per share. And it's evidence that management doesn't see the Indian deal as CIBC does, everything is set for a positive surprise on that front.
But, why the inefficiency, you may ask? Well, because with this news the stock should have almost immediately jumped to $23, rising 10%. This because the market perception created by the CIBC downgrade should have changed and therefore the price should have recovered all the lost ground. Instead the stock rose just 1% on low volume. Well, it's an opportunity for the bulls to load up some cheap shares.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
The increase in the share buyback program wasn't enough to spark interest in ALDN. I find that weird, but know from past experiences that sometimes the news doesn't have an immediate positive effect, look at what happened with INSW, for example (at www.stocksonvideo.com).
I'll keep holding ALDN.
If I were to sell ALDN here, I would probably be selling my shares to the company itself.
The 465,000 shares the company already bought and the 500,000 more it will buy over the next few months is a pretty significant number. It will reduce the number of shares outstanding from 15.11 M to about 14.1 million, that is, a 6.6% reduction.
I had 1 as a dilution factor estimate at my valuation model, but given this positive development I'm going to change it to 0.98.
I'll keep holding ALDN, don't know what the bears have in their heads.
FYI
You might want to limit your Israeli exposure,
Sunday, June 24, 2007 12:10 a.m. EDT
Israel's Military Intelligence Chief Warns of War This Summer
Israel's military intelligence chief warned Sunday that Israel is on the brink of a war that could break out as early as this summer.
Major General Amos Yadlin told the Israeli Cabinet that several factors were moving the nation toward war.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Yadlin cited Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, World Jihad, and Syria who the paper quoted Yadlin as saying "are all actively working against Israel, and may force a conflict as early as this summer."
"Any one of these authorities can bring about a deterioration in the situation this summer," Yadlin said.
Yadlin's comments come as the militant Islamic faction of the PLO, the Hamas terror network, has taken control over Gaza and is battling with the moderate wing Fatah for control of the West Bank.
Along Israel's northern border, Iran's backing of Hizbullah in Lebanon has added more worry for Israel.
Syria, which also shares a border with Israel, appears to be preparing for a major conflict.
Earlier this month Britain's London Telegraph reports that Israeli officials believe that Syria is preparing for a major war against the Jewish state.
"Israeli intelligence officials have been warning for weeks that Syria is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in anti-tank weapons, antiaircraft rockets, and other missiles, and bolstering its presence along the Israeli border," the paper reported.
Also unsettling were comments from Mohammad al Habash, a Syrian parliament member, who made a recent appearance on the Al Jazeera satellite channel.
Al Habash said Syria was "actively preparing for war with Israel, which he said he expected to break out this summer." This month Israel's military engaged in war games in preparation for a Syrian attack.
"Israel seeks peace with Syria," Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said. But he cautioned "miscalculations that could cause the security situation to worsen".
Thanks for that post Yukii - Applaud (P.S. I am liking the kinder/gentler Yukii! LOL)
Sounds like the Mid East is trying to avoid the US attacking Iran directly....
Fear and Greed....Fear and Greed.
I am overweight in these Israeli stocks...
I think I'll wait to see if I get a boost with second quarter reports and then pull out a bit.
David - what say ye?
I don't have enough experience to know how a war in a country can affect its stock prices?
All the Best
GMan
Quote from: guitarman on June 25, 2007, 03:50:42 PM
Thanks for that post Yukii - Applaud (P.S. I am liking the kinder/gentler Yukii! LOL)
Sounds like the Mid East is trying to avoid the US attacking Iran directly....
Fear and Greed....Fear and Greed.
I am overweight in these Israeli stocks...
I think I'll wait to see if I get a boost with second quarter reports and then pull out a bit.
David - what say ye?
I don't have enough experience to know how a war in a country can affect its stock prices?
All the Best
GMan
Thanks, trying to be delicate ;D
Pretty much closed all indexes at support today. bought GGN IEAM ALY
QuoteI think I'll wait to see if I get a boost with second quarter reports and then pull out a bit.
David - what say ye?
I don't have enough experience to know how a war in a country can affect its stock prices?
Well, you at least have seen what happened when the US invaded Irak on both the US and the Iraki exchanges, right? ;D
Anyway, these companies are Israeli only on paper, for example ALDN has subsidiaries across the world and only 4% of its annual revenues comes from Israel. Sure, there would be a short term impact, but I don't think a war between Israel and Syria, for example, would change the fundamentals of ALDN or CIMT.
Nothing new on ALDN yesterday, I'll keep holding.
NEW YORK, June 26 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ticker: ALDN). The target price has been raised from $24 to $26.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that investors are undervaluing the impact of the company's CIITE deal, which is likely to be worth tens of millions of dollars to Aladdin Knowledge Systems over the forthcoming two-to-three years. Aladdin Knowledge Systems expects to generate revenues of $95-$102 million and GAAP EPS of $0.90-$1.09 this year, excluding the revenues from the CIITE deal, the analysts say. The company has accelerated its share repurchase programme by another $10 million, which is likely to be accretive to its EPS going forward, Lazard Capital adds.
Quote from: yukiii on June 26, 2007, 11:01:53 PM
NEW YORK, June 26 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ticker: ALDN). The target price has been raised from $24 to $26.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that investors are undervaluing the impact of the company's CIITE deal, which is likely to be worth tens of millions of dollars to Aladdin Knowledge Systems over the forthcoming two-to-three years. Aladdin Knowledge Systems expects to generate revenues of $95-$102 million and GAAP EPS of $0.90-$1.09 this year, excluding the revenues from the CIITE deal, the analysts say. The company has accelerated its share repurchase programme by another $10 million, which is likely to be accretive to its EPS going forward, Lazard Capital adds.
Thanks for this post yukiii :)
I hope this recommendation brings some interest to ALDN, since the chart is starting to look a bit bearish here. It should, since the fall from $22 plus was due to a bearish recommendation saying that the CIITE deal was already "baked into the stock".
The company is also on the bulls side, increasing its share buyback program. I guess they'll buy the 500,000 shares before they announce the magnitude of the Indian deal, then the stock skyrockets.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
QuoteBut, why the inefficiency, you may ask? Well, because with this news the stock should have almost immediately jumped to $23, rising 10%. This because the market perception created by the CIBC downgrade should have changed and therefore the price should have recovered all the lost ground. Instead the stock rose just 1% on low volume. Well, it's an opportunity for the bulls to load up some cheap shares.
The current inefficiency on ALDN shares probably won't last long. The stock is starting to push higher again, as it should, given the fundamental landscape and the company buying back 500,000 shares more over the next few months.
Great News ;D
One of World's Largest Rental Car Companies to Deploy Aladdin eToken to Meet Payment Card Industry (PCI) Data Security Standard Compliance Requirements
ALDN One of World's Largest Rental Car Companies to Deploy Aladdin eToken to Meet Payment Card Industry (PCI) Data Security Standard Compliance Requirements Jul 2, 2007 06:30:00 (ET) CHICAGO, July 2, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --Aladdin Knowledge Systems(ALDN, Trade ), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, andsecure Web gateways, today announced that one of the world's largest rentalcar companies will be deploying thousands of Aladdin eToken USB authenticationkeys across many of its U.S. facilities next month. The selection of AladdineToken follows a lengthy evaluation process by the company, directly competingagainst numerous other solutions to meet Payment Card Industry (PCI) DataSecurity Standard compliance requirements. The company will also be deploying Aladdin's industry-leading TokenManagement System (TMS) in order to efficiently and easily manage its rentalcar company employee credentials, as well as the complete token life cycle andits associated security applications -- all from one centralized system. Largeamounts of time spent managing passwords affects productivity at a company ofits size. Thus, the deployment of Aladdin eToken
--------------------------------------------------------
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Press Release Source: Aladdin Knowledge Systems
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Announces Date of Second Quarter 2007 Results, Conference Call and Webcast
Monday July 2, 6:40 am ET
TEL AVIV, Israel, July 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, and secure Web gateways, today announced it will release financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2007 before the opening of trading in New York on Thursday, July 19, 2007. The financial results will be released over the news wires and will also be posted to the Aladdin Web site.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20040416/CGALADDINLOGO)
The Company will host a conference call, to be simultaneously Webcast, on Thursday, July 19, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time / 4:00 p.m. Israel Time. A question and answer session will follow management's presentation. To participate, please call the following numbers ten minutes before the hour:
With the volume ALDN has been trading lately I would say that the company buying back 500,000 shares may have a huge impact on the share price. Just roughly 22,000 shares changing hands over the past four days, on average, even though there were positive news.
In this case, the lower the volume, the better. The company seems anxious to post second quarter results, which will be released on July 19, a couple of weeks from now:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Announces Date of Second Quarter 2007 Results, Conference Call and Webcast (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070702/aqm071.html?.v=12)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jul 2)
Analysts estimates are the following:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38629;image)
They expect EPS for the quarter at $0.24, compared to $0.26 a year ago. The stock is also roughly 10% below where it was a year ago. I would say there's room for a positive surprise here, clearly the company's management sees the stock as undervalued, since they've been buying back shares aggressively (also, with less shares outstanding, it is easier to post a higher EPS number, because EPS = Net Income/# shares of outstanding.
ALDN should try selling its software piracy protection software to CIMT. It would be mutually beneficial. I'm going to write ALDN with this suggestion.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Slowly, ALDN keeps rising and today it closed back above the 50 days SMA. The way looks clear to a move to the $22-$23 area. 2nd quarter earnings will be released on July 19th, just 14 days from now. I hope they'll be able to update their full year 2007 guidance, considering the Indian deal.
I believe I've nailed ALDN's fundamentals right and I can only see upside from this point. But it requires a lot of patience. I'll be patient and will continue holding ALDN.
I got back into ALDN today at $21.02
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 05, 2007, 10:42:32 PM
I got back into ALDN today at $21.02
Good move Dragon :)
Earnings will be out in July 19 and I can't wait for them, because analysts have quite conservative expectations and I see the company posting a very nice positive surprise:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38749;image)
Analysts are expecting just 24 cents and the company reported 26 cents in the year ago quarter. I think "no way ALDN will post lower EPS than a year ago", so everything seems set for a 10% plus positive surprise in my view. The company hasn't been buying back shares aggressively because it will post "lower than expected numbers".
Moreover the company's products make so much sense to me ... I'm even thinking of contacting them to send an e-Token for all subscribers of 3 Stocks Premium service, that way, only with an e-Token one could access the premium area of the website. Just a thought.
I think many software companies (like CIMT, for example), would find ALDN products very useful. Any web based service or software maker needs Aladdin or a close competitor to protect its intellectual property or content.
I'll continue holding ALDN with strong hands.
Oh oh oh, amazing behavior in ALDN yesterday. You see, the positive news (of the increase in the share buyback program) were released what, almost 20 days ago, and only yesterday the stock had a powerful white marubozu with volume above average of 306,300 shares changing hands.
The market works in strange ways.
Earnings will be released in July 19th and I'm fully prepared for a positive surprise, since, as we've seen, analysts are expecting just 24 cents against 26 cents over the year ago 2nd quarter.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
The following table shows ALDN's fundamental trends, with revenue and EPS rising steadily:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38800;image)
But, the basis of my investment in ALDN is that I expect revenue growth to accelerate from roughly 10% a year to 30% a year. That would justify a much higher share price. As I've explained in this thread, I expect the CIITE deal alone to provide almost all of the 30% average annual revenue growth.
But it can be more, because the company's software products and services (http://www.aladdin.com/) ... uh la la, must be in high demand in the world right now.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
I have a 103 page Form-20 to study for ALDN (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/911364/000093041307005731/c49219_20f.htm), so we'll go by parts. For example, the following table shows the net profit margin improving over the years and justifies why I expect net profit margin to be 17.5% in 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38845;image)
Technically the stock is approaching its recent highs and I expect it to make a bullish breakout to new highs. I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN's earnings will be out next Thursday, and I'm eager for them. I wonder if they'll provide an new 2007 guidance, already taking into account the Indian deal.
Technically, I've lost my annotated chart (Metastock technical issues, Ramsburg will have to format my computer on Monday), but you can see the stock is probably about to take out the recent highs.
I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN keeps rising, with earnings coming out next Thursday. I expect the company to beat analysts consensus expectations, so no doubt I'll hold through earnings. Not much to think about between now and Thursday.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
News out of ALDN yesterday:
• Aladdin Names Doron Cohen eToken CTO (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070716/aqm004.html?.v=23)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:30am)
I don't expect this news to impact the share price.
But, earnings will be out on Wednesday. I've already opted to hold through earnings.
David earnings will be announced on Thursday june 19 Before market open
Quote from: Garoh on July 17, 2007, 07:17:25 AM
David earnings will be announced on Thursday june 19 Before market open
You're right Garoh, thanks :)
Nothing to study today for ALDN, saving energy to scrutinize the results when they're published. I'll hold through earnings.
Aldn has a cute chart now ;D
Will see 26.40 soon ;)
Quote from: Garoh on July 18, 2007, 03:40:15 PM
Aldn has a cute chart now ;D
Will see 26.40 soon ;)
I hope you're right Garoh :)
It was a nice close, at a new high, just before the earnings release which is expected to happen tomorrow before the open. I'll be particularly attentive to the guidance they give for the future. I'll update this analysis when we have the numbers, just leaving the updated chart for now:
just fyi:
ALDN: To Release Q2 Results Jul 19 [BMO]
Wednesday, July 18, 2007 13:00ET
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq NM: ALDN) is scheduled to release its Q2 financial results on July 19, 2007, before the market opens (BMO).
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q2 Revenue: $24.05 million
Q2 EPS: $0.27 per share
PREVIOUS PERIOD:
Prev Q2 Revenue: $20.85 million
Prev Q2 EPS: $0.26 per share
above estimates, nice outlook:
;D
Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports Record Second Quarter Revenues and Net Income, Raises Fiscal 2007 Guidance
Thursday July 19, 7:00 am ET
Quarterly Revenues of $25.5 Million, Up 22% Year-Over-Year
Net Income of $3.9 Million, Up 16% Year-Over-Year; or $0.26 Per Diluted Share
TEL AVIV, Israel, July 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, and secure Web gateways, today announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007, ended June 30, 2007. All results are prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States.
Revenues for the second quarter of 2007 were a record $25.5 million, an increase of 22 percent from the $20.9 million reported for the same period in 2006. Software DRM revenues for the second quarter of 2007 were $16.5 million, an increase of 13 percent from the $14.6 million reported in the same period in 2006. Enterprise Security revenues for the second quarter were a record $9.0 million, a 44 percent increase from the $6.2 million recorded in the same period in 2006. Revenues for the first six months of 2007 were $50.6 million, an increase of 16 percent from the $43.7 million recorded in the first half of 2006.
Net income for the second quarter of 2007 was $3.9 million or $0.27 per basic share and $0.26 per diluted share and compared to second quarter of 2006 net income of $3.3 million or $0.23 per basic share and $0.22 per diluted share. Net income for the second quarter of 2007 included $0.15 million for equity-based compensation expenses compared to $0.6 million in the second quarter of 2006. For the first six months of 2007, net income was $7.7 million, or $0.53 per basic share and $0.52 per diluted share, compared with net income of $7.1 million or $0.49 per basic share and $0.47 per diluted share for the first six months of 2006. Net income for the first six months of 2007 included $0.6 million for equity-based compensation expenses compared to $1.1 million in the first six months of 2006.
Yanki Margalit, Chairman and CEO of Aladdin Knowledge Systems stated, "Aladdin delivered an outstanding performance for the second quarter of 2007, reporting all-time high quarterly revenues and net income, while generating strong cash flow from operations. The success of our strategy of investing in a portfolio of innovative Software DRM and Enterprise Security solutions is clear as both operating divisions posted double digit year-over-year organic growth rates, including record revenues from our Enterprise Security division. Our second quarter results were driven by positive demand across Aladdin's portfolio of security solutions. Based on the strength of our first half results, as well as our positive view of business conditions for the second half of the year, we have raised our full year 2007 revenue and EPS guidance.
"With a $10 million share repurchase program announced and completed during the second quarter of 2007, as well as the subsequent announcement of an additional $10 million share repurchase program, we are committed to leveraging the strength of our operating cash flow, balance sheet and the successful execution of our strategy to deliver long-term value to our shareholders," concluded Margalit.
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $87.7 million at June 30, 2007, down $3.1 million from $90.9 million reported as of year end 2006. While the Company generated positive cash flow from operations of $8.5 million during the first half of 2007, the Company used approximately $10 million in cash to purchase shares under the recently announced share repurchase programs.
Financial and Operating Highlights
-- Record quarterly revenues and net income of $25.5 million and $3.9 million, respectively.
-- Double digit year-over-year organic growth in Software Security and Enterprise Security.
-- Record quarterly Enterprise Security business revenues of $9.0 million, an increase of 44 percent year-over-year.
-- Cash flow from operating activities in the second quarter totaled $4.6 million.
-- $20 million in stock repurchase programs announced during the quarter.
-- 464,973 common shares repurchased during the quarter at a total cost of $10 million.
-- Appointed David A. Collins as Aladdin North America's vice president of sales for eSafe and eToken.
Quarterly Product Highlights
-- Aladdin announced the general availability of HASP HL software protection, licensing and distribution solution for Microsoft's Windows CE (x86)(TM) and Aladdin HASP SRM for Microsoft's Windows XP Embedded(TM) operating system.
-- Announced that Frost & Sullivan, a global growth consulting company, named Aladdin the market leader in the Software Digital Rights Management (DRM) Market in its April 2007 analysis "World Content Protection and Digital Rights Management Markets."
-- Frost & Sullivan named Aladdin the recipient of its 2007 Global Award for Product Innovation, recognizing Aladdin HASP's leadership in the software DRM market and its unparalleled innovation in providing software developers trusted protection, licensing and distribution solutions.
-- Beijing-based Hanwang Technology Co. Ltd., the largest provider of intelligent recognition solutions in China, will deploy up to 18,000 Aladdin HASP software protection keys to secure Hanwang products against piracy and unauthorized use.
-- One of the world's largest rental car companies will deploy Aladdin eTokens to meet payment card industry data security standard compliance requirements.
-- Unisys Corporation will deploy more than 28,000 Aladdin eToken smart cards to provide employees with integrated physical/data access.
-- Announced deployments of Aladdin's eSafe SecureSurfing(TM) solution by several ISPs including:
-- Mumbai-based SecureSynergy Pvt Ltd., the first managed security service provider in India to deploy the Aladdin eSafe SecureSurfing solution for its customers.
-- Internet Xpress, a Northeast Washington-based ISP, is using eSafe SecureSurfing to provide its residential and business ISP customers with "clean-pipe" Internet access.
For further information on product highlights, please refer to the press room on the Company's Web site which can be found at http://www.aladdin.com/news/2007/index.aspx.
Future Business Outlook
Based on current business conditions and expectations, Aladdin management has raised its guidance for fiscal year 2007.
Revenues for fiscal year 2007 are now expected to be between $100 million and $106 million, up from the previously stated range of $95 million to $102 million. The Company reported $89 million in revenues in fiscal year 2006.
Fiscal year 2007 diluted earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $1.00 to $1.12, up from the previously stated guidance range of $0.90 to $1.09. The Company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.93 in fiscal year 2006.
The Company currently anticipates equity-based compensation expenses to be approximately $0.2 million per quarter for the second half of 2007. Due to the variable nature of these expenses, Aladdin had previously expected quarterly equity-based compensation expenses to be in a range of $0.4 million to $0.6 million per quarter.
The Company undertakes no obligation to update its estimates.
Thanks for posting the results la-onda :)
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports Record Second Quarter Revenues and Net Income, Raises Fiscal 2007 Guidance (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070719/aqth013.html?.v=20)
PR Newswire (Thu 7:00am)
On Yahoo Finance expectations were:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39099;image)
And actual results were EPS of $0.26 (diluted) and revenue of $25.5 M, so, better than expected. The company also raised full year 2007 guidance:
«Revenues for fiscal year 2007 are now expected to be between $100 million and $106 million, up from the previously stated range of $95 million to $102 million. The Company reported $89 million in revenues in fiscal year 2006.
Fiscal year 2007 diluted earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $1.00 to $1.12, up from the previously stated guidance range of $0.90 to $1.09. The Company reported diluted earnings per share of $0.93 in fiscal year 2006.»
I don't know if this already takes into account the Indian deal, and that's the big question. I'm going to have to listen to the conference call to possibly have an answer, or a clue, about this issue.
Revenue growth from a year ago levels was 22% and I have 25% in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main) (but that takes into account the Indian deal). The company's historical growth rate has been 11%, so growth accelerated in Q2 2007.
Net profit margin was 15.21%, a bit below the 17.5% I expected in my valuation model, but that's for 2009.
ALDN is trading at roughly 21.7 times 2007 EPS while companies in its industry trade at an average of 41 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ALDN).
So, good results, I'll keep holding ALDN.
David are you litening to the Call ?
any thing bad that took this one down ?
thanks
Quote from: Garoh on July 19, 2007, 10:26:19 AM
David are you litening to the Call ?
any thing bad that took this one down ?
thanks
Why are we down $1.50???
Profit taking on the good news? ALDN hasn't been all that dynamic in terms of its share price. Perhaps some fish bails out and moves its money into a different stock?
I'm listening to the conference call now. There are many technical problems with the sound. I guess the sell off is because they didn't disclose details of the India deal, or because they said the deal won't have a material impact in fiscal 2007, just 2008.
I'll let you now as soon as the call ends, but be cool, fundamentals are supportive.
There is the following headline at Yahoo!, but I can't find the article.
Today, Thu, Jul 19, 2007
• InPlay: Aladdin Knowledge Systems earnings correction
Briefing.com (Thu 8:18am)
Quote from: David Randolph on July 19, 2007, 10:54:02 AM
I'm listening to the conference call now. There are many technical problems with the sound. I guess the sell off is because they didn't disclose details of the India deal, or because they said the deal won't have a material impact in fiscal 2007, just 2008.
I'll let you now as soon as the call ends, but be cool, fundamentals are supportive.
Yeah, they didn't disclose financial details of the India deal and said they'll never break that deal down. They said they won't discuss individual deals or clients, which is contrary to what they said in the past.
They also said the deal is going very well and that they just received the first order. There was no impact from India in Q2 2007 results.
This is probably why we're seeing some disappointment in the share price today, even though the quarter was great.
This is all I found at Briefing.com...
8:18AM Aladdin Knowledge Systems earnings correction (ALDN) 23.05 : Co reported diluted EPS $0.26, a penny below the consensus of $0.27. Earlier we reported the basic EPS number and said that the report was in-line, this was incorrect. We have updated the original comment.
IMO it´s no so bad. There is a lot of swing traders which buy stocks before any earnings and then they go out into another stock what is "before earnings" without any other reason. IMO it is not huge sell-off, we are here after earnings only.
There's some discrepancy between the estimates you have and the numbers I see on Yahoo Finance, but I guess your numbers are more accurate which makes me think I should subscribe to something like First Call. Do you know of any better service to get accurate, up to date analysts estimates? Thanks.
Anyway, I still think ALDN went down after the conference call because the company didn't provide details on the Indian deal it announced in April 5, 2007, and said they never will:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys Call scheduled for 8:30 am ET today (http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/79334.html)
CCBN (Thu, Apr 5)
I would say the deal isn't going as well as they initially thought, or else it will take much longer than previously expected. But they did say everything was going fine and they just received the first order from CIITE, so I guess we'll see what happen going forward.
But, even without India ($0 coming from India this quarter), the company achieved 22% revenue growth (my model is calling for 25% revenue CAGR over three years) from the year ago period, so everything seems on track.
ALDN is now trading at roughly 21 times 2007 EPS given by the midpoint of the company's guidance, while companies in its industry trade at an average of 40 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ALDN).
I'll continue holding ALDN for the long term.
I'm more confident about ALDN now that earnings were released than what I was in the past, because I've seen revenue growth of 22% even without any contribution from the Indian deal. Just 3 percentage points to go to achieve my long term estimate (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ALDN&portfolio=main).
I believe investors will start to realize how undervalued ALDN is, trading at 21.6 times 2007 EPS while companies in the Security Software & Services industry trade at 40.82 times EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ALDN) (and ALDN is growing more and has higher profit margins than the industry average).
I'll continue holding ALDN.
Another good day for ALDN, proving the people that sold on the earnings news wrong. My latest update says it all in my view:
QuoteI believe investors will start to realize how undervalued ALDN is, trading at 21.6 times 2007 EPS while companies in the Security Software & Services industry trade at 40.82 times EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ALDN) (and ALDN is growing more and has higher profit margins than the industry average).
Nothing new for ALDN today, I'll keep holding the stock.
Unfortunately ALDN couldn't surpass the $23 - $24 resistance area and came off a bit on low volume. Fundamentally everything staid the same as there were no news out. I'll continue holding ALDN.
ALDN opened down a lot but recovered some ground throughout the session, on volume above average of 231,900 shares. I remain confident about this stock's prospects.
Nothing new on ALDN in Friday's session, I'll keep holding.
A press release out from ALDN, but with no material impact on the share price:
• Aladdin Chief Cryptographer to Speak at Black Hat USA 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070730/clm032.html?.v=93)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:30am)
Nothing new on the technical front. I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN rose a bit today, despite the general market weakness. I think it is just a matter of time before we see the stock above $24.
ALDN will speak today in Las Vegas:
• Aladdin Chief Cryptographer to Speak at Black Hat USA 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070730/clm032.html?.v=93)
PR Newswire (Mon, Jul 30)
I don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
QuoteI don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.
I'm not finding anything at www.aladdin.com.
Nice bounce from the 50 days SMA yesterday, let's see if it gets traction and pushes towards $24.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 03, 2007, 05:45:25 AM
QuoteI don't expect anything surprising, but I would like to have the slides of the conference, I wonder if the company will provide them at its website.
I'm not finding anything at www.aladdin.com.
Nice bounce from the 50 days SMA yesterday, let's see if it gets traction and pushes towards $24.
David I think it is just started an uptrend and the beginning was at 19.95 it will be confirmed if it breaks the high this month ..
I feel like this stock will just explode and go up very fast ::)
QuoteDavid I think it is just started an uptrend and the beginning was at 19.95 it will be confirmed if it breaks the high this month ..
I feel like this stock will just explode and go up very fast ::)
The general market isn't helping ALDN to breakout to new highs, but the stock is holding up better than most.
ALDN is an Israeli based global business, with 26% of its revenues coming from the US and 52% from Europe. I truly enjoy the company's products and services, in the software security area, which I think is an area that will continue to grow at double digits for years to come.
I'll continue holding ALDN for the long term.
ALDN held better than most stocks while the general market slumped, so probably it will be able to breakout to new highs now that fears have somewhat subsided. I enjoy ALDN's relatively calm way of moving up and down.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 08, 2007, 07:17:51 AM
ALDN held better than most stocks while the general market slumped, so probably it will be able to breakout to new highs now that fears have somewhat subsided. I enjoy ALDN's relatively calm way of moving up and down.
I'll keep holding ALDN.
I'm not so sure fears have subsided anymore, since futures are down sharply this morning, but I believe ALDN's business is independent of the economic cycle and has a life of its own. I expect the stock to behave the same way and I'll keep holding ALDN.
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.
The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.
The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.
Yes David now you'er doing the right thing :)
I already got out of the stock yesterday at $21.21 , the chart is really ugly now indicating a more drop in the stock's price ..
Good job David
Quote from: Garoh on August 10, 2007, 07:30:40 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.
The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.
Yes David now you'er doing the right thing :)
I already got out of the stock yesterday at $21.21 , the chart is really ugly now indicating a more drop in the stock's price ..
Good job David
I sold yesterday too 8)
Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.
The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.
The stock went higher after I sold, but now it is heading down to close that gap at $17.15. It will be a good long term buy at that price, trading at 13 times 2008 EPS estimates:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=43235;image)
The fundamentals never stopped improving ... multiple expansion and contraction plays a major role in stock prices over the short and medium terms.
Earnings report is due tommorrow A.M.
QuoteThe stock went higher after I sold, but now it is heading down to close that gap at $17.15. It will be a good long term buy at that price, trading at 13 times 2008 EPS estimates
Almost closed the gap, as ALDN's low was $17.3. Then results were released:
• Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports Record Annual Revenues, Net Income and Cash Flow (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080124/aqth072.html?.v=29)
PR Newswire (Thu, Jan 24)
Guidance was strong:
«Fiscal year 2008 GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.28 to $1.40. The Company reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.02 in fiscal year 2007.»
Estimates for 2009 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ALDN) rose a bit.
ALDN currently trades at 15.9 times 2008 estimated EPS, while it is expected to grow EPS by 30% in the year. For 2009, EPS growth is expected to be 16.5%.
I guess the expected long term growth rate for the business is about 16% and the stock trades at that earnings multiple. It seems fairly valued. Unless fundamentals change drastically I would say ALDN will continue trading between $17 and $23 or so.
ALDN down 23% due to weak earnings release and lower guidance:
InPlay: Aladdin Knowledge Systems misses by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY08 revs guidance (http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#aldn)
Briefing.com (Mon 7:35am)
Aladdin's Operating Expenses Rise on Strong Shekel as Product Demand Increases
Shares of Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (ALDN) were down 26.621% following this Monday's earning release in which the company reported lowered EPS Guidance in range of $1.08 to $1.18 despite record revenues of $30M for the quarter and reaffirming previously stated guidance revenues for the year.
Chairman & CEO Yanki Margalit said, "We continued to experience increased demand across both Software DRM and Enterprise Security markets throughout all geographic regions. However, our results were negatively impacted by currency exchange rates with a strong Israeli shekel raising our operating expenses." According to the company, expectations were higher than the current actual rate as the company concluded its budget at the end of 2007. During its earnings call, the company stated that it had no idea of the magnitude of the currency's strengthening. Said Margalit, "If you look at sheckle in Q1 2008 compared to Q4 2007 and Q1 2007, you have two numbers. It's a $400,000 impact compared to Q4 numbers, and an $800,000 impact compared to Q1 2007 numbers." Expaining the drag on EPS despite a record quarter and growing demand for product, Margalit stated, "When we started 2008, we already had a strong EURO as part of our expectations and investment plan. What we've seen in last three months is a deviation of the dollar in Israel which effected Q1 and 2008 going forward. We benefit from the top line increment, and once we pay for it in the bottom line expense, we end up selling more but our profitability is going down. we don't get compensated on profitability level."
Operating costs were a challenge for the company as a result of the R&D spike due to consolidation activities in Athena Smartcards and raised salaries in the first quarter. Although the company is not reducing or adding headcount, it will use a 12-month time frame, the company has made plans to reduce operating costs for the second half of the year by outsourcing. Said Margolit, "We can't break the Athena numbers by themselves yet, but if you look at the top line perspective, nothing has changed except the operating expenses. Overall we've increased demand geographically everywhere."