3SOF

I made the following video analysis for JASO and found it is a very attractive stock:

<object width="565" height="400"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/w5TmKRnBH9k"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/w5TmKRnBH9k" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="565" height="400"></embed></object>


If we compare the two model estimates for TSL and JASO, we can see that JASO, being a very similar company to TSL, is even more attractive, as stocky said the other day (and I would already be ahead 20% or so had I analyzed the stock and bought it immediately :-[):

TSL model:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35627;image)

JASO model:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35629;image)

Three of my estimates are equal for both companies, both have a dilution factor of 3%, an estimated net profit margin of 10% for 2009 and the same EPS multiple of 35.

The only difference is the revenue CAGR, since I have 2 for TSL (it means 100% annual growth) and 2.2 for JASO. Here's the explanation for this difference:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35631;image)

TSL is expected to grow 141% in 2007 and JASO is expected to grow 220% over the same period, to a higher final revenue number of $285 M. This according to both companies internal estimates.

Now, TSL is a $1.39 B market cap company, and JASO has a market cap of just $645 M. JASO should more than double just to catch up with TSL.

The model results give me an expected share price CAGR of 67.7% and an optimal selling price of $73.12 for JASO, so I have no doubts I want this stock.

The trading plan is:

Buy JASO, 6.66% of capital as always.

Great pick David  :)

I was going to buy this one last week  >:(

We can get it cheaper this week I guess

David I think we should look at the coal industry >>> cool activities are going on these days. It's growing !!  look at KALG

:)

Garoh,why do you think we can get this at a better price? It's up premarket.

I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

Quote from: soxguy on April 16, 2007, 09:01:05 AM
I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

I'll jump in, because there's no scientific way to know if the stock will pullback or just keep on moving higher after the open. I focus on the main movement and ignore the short term fluctuations.

Fundamental anaysis says JASO is worth $73.12, considering current fundamental trends. Will you risk losing almost a $50 move to try to get in $1 below the current market price?

No way if you ask me. But good luck if you try it, I hope the stock pullsback a bit after the open so everybody gets in, as it doesn't get much closer to a sure thing than the situation we have on JASO.

Looking at it that way,it's immaterial whether $25 OR $23 is the entry price. GLTA.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 16, 2007, 09:15:35 AM

Quote from: soxguy on April 16, 2007, 09:01:05 AM
I guess that's the dillema. It's been running the last 2 days. DO you wait for the pull back or hold your nose and jump in?

I'll jump in, because there's no scientific way to know if the stock will pullback or just keep on moving higher after the open. I focus on the main movement and ignore the short term fluctuations.

Fundamental anaysis says JASO is worth $73.12, considering current fundamental trends. Will you risk losing almost a $50 move to try to get in $1 below the current market price?

No way if you ask me. But good luck if you try it, I hope the stock pullsback a bit after the open so everybody gets in, as it doesn't get much closer to a sure thing than the situation we have on JASO.

David you'er right , It couldbe not possible to pullback and will miss the profits ...

It just works sometimes  :)

The problem with trying to predict a pullback to have a better entry price is if it actually happens. If it happens a few times in a row you'll get convinced that you can predict short term fluctuations and you'll become a short term trader, looking at quotes all the time, and ... years go by and as a short term trader you end up not making money at all, because you're gambling based on instincts, not investing in sound economic principles.

Just a thought ... anyway, JASO will perhaps pullback after the open, it may even go down 5 or 10% after I buy it, but that won't change my expectation of a 67.7% share price CAGR going forward.

Good luck :)

Quote from: David Randolph on April 16, 2007, 09:30:30 AM
The problem with trying to predict a pullback to have a better entry price is if it actually happens. If it happens a few times in a row you'll get convinced that you can predict short term fluctuations and you'll become a short term trader, looking at quotes all the time, and ... years go by and as a short term trader you end up not making money at all, because you're gambling based on instincts, not investing in sound economic principles.

Just a thought ... anyway, JASO will perhaps pullback after the open, it may even go down 5 or 10% after I buy it, but that won't change my expectation of a 67.7% share price CAGR going forward.

Good luck :)

Acually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could  ;D

QuoteAcually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could   :)

Yes Garoh, but what makes you think you can do it, other than thinking that you can predict short term fluctuations?

I got in at $25.05, up 3.5% from yesterday's close, and I'm happy with it. I'll be happy even if JASO closes negative today, because I've opted to ignore short term fluctuations, so I can focus on what makes stocks move over the long term.

Man I love this community... looks like another winner David!!!  I was fortunate enough to get all my shares pre-market (which I usually hate doing) pre $25

David - please don't forget to look at ASY

Keep up the good work my friend!  ;D

Quote from: David Randolph on April 16, 2007, 10:01:42 AM

QuoteAcually I'm not doing it for daytrading I'm just trying to get it cheaper If I could   :)

Yes Garoh, but what makes you think you can do it, other than thinking that you can predict short term fluctuations?

I got in at $25.05, up 3.5% from yesterday's close, and I'm happy with it. I'll be happy even if JASO closes negative today, because I've opted to ignore short term fluctuations, so I can focus on what makes stocks move over the long term.

Good gain for both TSL and JASO  today ...

David I'm in at 27.10  ;D

didn't want to miss move profits as these stocks moving up sharply ..

Also look at KALG  the one I mentioned today on TSL thread  it's up 8%
we should have one of the Coal related industry   :)

awesome pick, awesome chart, applauds David  >:D >:D
(of course I have missed the entry )

Quote from: dragonamg on April 16, 2007, 10:14:12 AM
Man I love this community... looks like another winner David!!!  I was fortunate enough to get all my shares pre-market (which I usually hate doing) pre $25

David - please don't forget to look at ASY

Keep up the good work my friend!  ;D

Thanks dragonamg, I have ASY on my list for today.

QuoteGood gain for both TSL and JASO  today ...

David I'm in at 27.10 ;D

didn't want to miss move profits as these stocks moving up sharply ..

Also look at KALG  the one I mentioned today on TSL thread  it's up 8%
we should have one of the Coal related industry :)

See, you ended up getting in 8.2% above my entry price (which appeared to be really high at the time). My take is if you want to buy, buy! Do not pay attention to the possibility of a short term dip after you buy if you're doing it for sound long term reasons.

Of course, there will be times where a pullback will indeed occur and you could have bought the stock lower, but those times are more than compensated by the times where the stock just keeps on pushing higher, because, after all, that's the trend (or it should be, since you're buying).

Another issue on this is that many times, because you're looking to buy it cheaper and the stock denies you that possibility, you just opt to wait or not to look at it anymore, and the stock keeps on moving higher, leaving you outside of a huge bull run!

The time and effort lost looking for a few extra ticks is not worth it, it will even probably be prejudicial (I'm not talking to Garoh specifically, but in general).

Quote from: la-onda on April 16, 2007, 08:01:13 PM
awesome pick, awesome chart, applauds David  >:D >:D
(of course I have missed the entry )

Thanks la-onda, it's a pity you're not in, but, according to my valuation model, JASO is still a very attractive stock, and I would buy it again today without hesitation:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35705;image)

The model says JASO should only be sold above $73, and with the discount the stock is trading against TSL, I see it going for $50 in what, a couple of weeks?

Well, of course I'm not sure about this "couple of weeks" time frame, but one thing I'm certain: I'll keep holding JASO, long and strong!

On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2)

Quote from: Se7en on April 17, 2007, 09:10:31 AM
On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2)

Ridiculous. Both JASO and SOLF are much more attractive than SPWR, especially JASO :)

Great buying opportunity if you ask me.

Just got some JASO at 25.75, glad I got a chance to buy at least some.  I will keep adding if it goes lower into the gap  ;D

Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 09:27:38 AM

Quote from: Se7en on April 17, 2007, 09:10:31 AM
On the declining side, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. fell in the early session after CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jeff Osborne cut his rating on both stocks to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer."

"Both stocks are currently trading above our previous price targets at valuations that we do not see as defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers," wrote Osborne, who removed his target prices.

The analyst said he prefers shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. in the solar sector, and advised investors to lock in profits following a recent share price increase for Solarfun and JA Solar.

Shares of Suntech advanced 3 cents to their close at $36.25 on the NYSE in the premarket session. Solarfun Power gave up 82 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $16.86, after closing at $17.68 Monday on the Nasdaq. JA Solar Holdings dropped $1.35, or 4.8 percent, to $26.85 in the premarket session after winding up at $28.20 a day earlier on the Nasdaq.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2 (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/premarket_movers.html?.v=2)

Ridiculous. Both JASO and SOLF are much more attractive than SPWR, especially JASO :)

Great buying opportunity if you ask me.

I added more at 25.65 today  >:D

Instead of pulling back after yesterday's open, JASO did it today. It will probably close the gap at $24.2 and I couldn't care less, since my reasonably estimated valuation model tells me the stock is worth a lot more than  the current levels:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35750;image)

Today's hard sell off came on the wheels of an analyst downgrade (also the stock was up what, 47% in three days :o):

• Sector Snap: Solar Cell Makers (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/solar_cell_makers_sector_snap.html?.v=1)
AP (Tue 2:16pm)

It's funny how an analyst downgrade gets more traction if he has been bullish on the stock before and the stock had a nice run up. People accept the "lock in profits" recommendation way too easily, they welcome it, not knowing they're making a long term strategic mistake.

And the fundamental reasoning of the analyst can only make me laugh. So, solar photovoltaic cells are commodities, so one should sell their producers? I believe this is ridiculous. Even commodity producers, like copper mining stocks and oil stocks, for example, can be of great value and go up 10 fold, why shouldn't a solar PV cell producer go up 10 fold if its revenues and earnings go up 10 fold as it will probably happen, given the incredible worldwide demand for these products?

According to my valuation model JASO is the most attractive solar company outthere, and today's pullback doesn't change my view at all. I'll just sit tight and keep on holding JASO.

Here's some food for thought from Jesse Livermore, written more than 80 years ago:

«And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves because they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.»

Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 06:56:14 PM
Instead of pulling back after yesterday's open, JASO did it today. It will probably close the gap at $24.2 and I couldn't care less, since my reasonably estimated valuation model tells me the stock is worth a lot more than  the current levels:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35750;image)

Today's hard sell off came on the wheels of an analyst downgrade (also the stock was up what, 47% in three days :o):

• Sector Snap: Solar Cell Makers (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/solar_cell_makers_sector_snap.html?.v=1)
AP (Tue 2:16pm)

It's funny how an analyst downgrade gets more traction if he has been bullish on the stock before and the stock had a nice run up. People accept the "lock in profits" recommendation way too easily, they welcome it, not knowing they're making a long term strategic mistake.

And the fundamental reasoning of the analyst can only make me laugh. So, solar photovoltaic cells are commodities, so one should sell their producers? I believe this is ridiculous. Even commodity producers, like copper mining stocks and oil stocks, for example, can be of great value and go up 10 fold, why shouldn't a solar PV cell producer go up 10 fold if its revenues and earnings go up 10 fold as it will probably happen, given the incredible worldwide demand for these products?

According to my valuation model JASO is the most attractive solar company outthere, and today's pullback doesn't change my view at all. I'll just sit tight and keep on holding JASO.

Here's some food for thought from Jesse Livermore, written more than 80 years ago:

«And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves because they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.»

Another positive for solar going forward is something that Cramer will be talking about ALL WEEK on his show, what he calls the Green movement or something like that.  Apparently Massachusetts has sued the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and won at the Supreme Court level, charing that the EPA is essentially not doing its job.  The ruling was apparently on April 2nd.  Made me think of picking up CECE again as Cramers contention is that anything "green" is going up over the next many years due to this ruling.  I always take Cramer with a grain of salt, but its clearly something special when he devotes a whole week of shows to it, I have never seen him do that.

Guys, you have to check this out...
I am in love with David's research even more after I did my homework from MSN:

Ok.. So I was watching Jim Cramer's Mad Money today and he was pumping "FSLR."

So I took a peak on MSN's website and just checked out earnings alone for "FSLR" FY(12/08):
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Symbol=fslr
I get a Forward PE ratio of 72.5

Next, I looked at "TSL" Earnings alone for FY(12/08)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Symbol=tsl
I get a Forward PE ratio of 18.1

Lastly, I looked at "JASO" Earnings alone for FY(12/08)
I get a Forward PE ratio of 19

Now I know I am just looking at Earnings and not factoring the other revs/growth/dilution/etc.
But, lets just say for kicks that TSL AND JASO's earnings will grow at the same rate as FSLR and the the other factors (ie: revs/growth/dilution/etc.) are the same as "FSLR"

Well, shouldn't the stock prices look this:

TSL= FSLR'S Forward PE OF 72.5 Multiplied by TSL'S (12/08) Earnings 0f $3.42 =
$248 Per Share

JASO = FSLR'S Forward PE OF 72.5 Multiplied by JASO'S (12/08) Earnings 0f $1.31 =
$95 Per Share 

I know I am not an expert, but it looks to me like TSL and JASO are going to be monsters as David says.
They seem extremely Undervalued.
They almost seem like they should be a "10" on the "3SOF" ratings.
What would make a "10" rating?

Cramer absolutely hates China stocks and I think that is a big PLUS for us.
Why the heck would we overpay for FSLR when you can own TSL and JASO for a Huge discount?

One last thing, the U.S. dollar looks as if it is falling off of a cliff.
Once again, I am not an expert, but that would be another big PLUS for owning TSL and JASO rather than FSLR.

Please let me know if I am dreaming up the above or if I am on to something, guys  ;)


Wxmang

An article from a few weeks ago :D

----------------

JA Solar gives sunny outlook
By Ann Steffora Mutschler, Senior Editor -- Electronic News, 3/30/2007
Hebei, China-based monocrystalline solar cell manufacturer JA Solar Holdings
Co. Ltd. today reported revenues for its Q4 ended December 31, 2006 of $44.8
million (349.4 million China Yuan Renminbi), compared to revenues of nil for
Q4 2005, and $31.8 million (248 million RMB) in Q3 2006.

Net income available to ordinary shareholders for Q4 2006 was $8.57 million
(66.86 million RMB) compared to a net loss of $180,000 (1.44 million RMB)
for Q4 2005, and net income of $530,000 (4.14 million RMB) for Q3 2006.

Q4 2006 basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 32 cents (2.51 RMB) and 31
cents (2.45 RMB), respectively. Each ADS represents three ordinary shares.

Q4 2006 included share-based compensation expense of $210,000 (1.65 million
RMB), or less than one cent (0.055 RMB) per diluted ADS.

Revenues for the full year 2006 were $89.2 million (696.5 million RMB),
compared to revenues of nil for the period from inception on May 18, 2005 to
December 31, 2005.

Net income available to ordinary shareholders for the full year 2006 was
$11.1 million (86.4 million RMB), compared to a net loss of $400,000 (3.11
million RMB), for the period from inception on May 18, 2005 to December 31,
2005.

For the full year 2006, basic and diluted earnings per ADS were 41 cents
(3.24 RMB) and 41 cents (3.23 RMB), respectively.

The full year 2006 included share-based compensation expense of $2.33
million (18.18 million RMB), or 9 cents (0.68 RMB) per diluted ADS. Diluted
earnings per ADS calculations for the full year 2006 were based on 26.72
million weighted average number of ADSs outstanding, compared to 26.67
million ADSs in the year ago period.

Samuel Yang, CEO of JA Solar said in a statement, ³We continue to build on
the substantial momentum in our business. We are successfully establishing
JA Solar as one of the world's premier solar cell brands. Our recent initial
public offering was very well received and a benchmark event. We now have
adequate funding in place to secure the high-quality silicon supply critical
to our growth. We brought 75MW of production online as planned in 2006. We
are on track to more than double that, with the planned addition of another
100MW in 2007 as we continue to execute on our growth plan by meeting the
cell needs of our customers worldwide.²

Further, Herman Zhao, CFO for JA Solar noted, ³At this time, we have 100
percent of our silicon wafer supply contractually secured for 2007. We are
carefully managing all aspects of our growth. We continue to leverage our
purchasing scale and long-term supply and purchase agreements. We are also
seeking increased operational efficiencies where possible, as we work to
maintain a stable gross margin level.²

In February, the company completed its IPO, generating net proceeds of
$209.1 million, net of listing expenses. The underwriters exercised their
over-allotment option for the purchase of additional ADSs, generating net
proceeds of $31.4 million. The company says it intends to use the proceeds
to purchase raw materials, to expand its existing production capacity, to
repay its short-term debt obligations, to enhance its research and
development capabilities and for general working capital purposes. Upon the
consummation of the IPO in February, all of the company¹s outstanding
6,520,000 Series A preference shares were automatically converted into
6,520,000 ordinary shares

Based on current market conditions and customer forecasts, JA Solar expects
production for 2007 to be approximately 100MW, resulting in revenues for the
full year in the range of approximately $280 to $290 million (2.1 to 2.2
billion RMB), with a gross margin expected to be approximately 19.5 percent.

For its Q1, the company expects revenue to be in the range of $39 to $41
million (301 to 317 million RMB), with gross margin expected to be
approximately 21 percent.

The company also said it expects its share based compensation for Q1 to be
approximately $240,000 (1.87 million RMB), or less than one cent (0.05 RMB)
per diluted ADS.

Last week, the company said that it plans to install four additional solar
cell production lines on its existing Ningjin site in Hebei, China, with
each line to have a manufacturing capacity of 25-megawatts (MW) per year,
with the four new lines running at full commercial production and yield
targets by the end of Q3, bringing the company's total manufacturing
capacity to 175MW per year, when added together with its three existing 25MW
solar cell production lines.

Quote from: tokyopua on April 17, 2007, 07:09:42 PM

Another positive for solar going forward is something that Cramer will be talking about ALL WEEK on his show, what he calls the Green movement or something like that.  Apparently Massachusetts has sued the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and won at the Supreme Court level, charing that the EPA is essentially not doing its job.  The ruling was apparently on April 2nd.  Made me think of picking up CECE again as Cramers contention is that anything "green" is going up over the next many years due to this ruling.  I always take Cramer with a grain of salt, but its clearly something special when he devotes a whole week of shows to it, I have never seen him do that.

Here is a link to NY Times synopsis 

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00610FA34540C708CDDAD0894DF404482

"DISPLAYING ABSTRACT - Supreme Court rules that Environmental Protection Agency has authority to regulate heat-trapping gases in automobile emissions and that agency cannot sidestep its authority to regulate greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change unless it provides scientific basis for its refusal;..."

What this means is that the EPA not only can, but must regulate greenhouse gas  (CO₂ emissions.  Smoke stack emission, gas and diesel burning cars and trucks, efficiency of any electrical device, are just a few of the items on the table. They have always had the mandate to regulate polluting gases, the difference now is that for the first time CO₂ must be regulated to the point of mitigating global warming, based on science. They may be slow in the near term, but after the Nov 08 elections they will be forced to act aggressively. 

Solar cells, nuclear reactors and plug in Electric Vehicles in every garage!  ::)

While writing this, a thought popped into my head.
Obviously Solar will benefit on the production side but on the consumption side there may be opportunities for companies that can provide low cost high efficiency motors and such.  There is a thread on this board about RZ (Raser) that has proven technology that can provide somewhere around 35% increase in efficiency in AC motor/controller systems. Might be something to put on the radar.

Quote from: ravenquork on April 17, 2007, 09:25:02 PM
Solar cells, nuclear reactors and plug in Electric Vehicles in every garage!

That is exactly how I see the future +20 years from now. I believe everything will be electric plug in vehicles powered by nuclear+solar power.

just FYI

CIBC WORLD DOWNGRADES JASO, SOLF TO SECTOR PERFORM FROM SECTOR OUTPERFORM
S&P Marketscope -

CIBC WORLD DOWNGRADES JASO, SOLF TO SECTOR PERFORM FROM SECTOR OUTPERFORM

Analyst Jeff Osborne tells salesforce recent share price gains sent JASO, SOLF above his respective targets of $22, $16, toward valuation levels he doesn't consider defensible for commodity PV cell/module suppliers... As result, downgrades both stocks, advises investors to lock in profits... Meanwhile, ups EPS ests for JASO to $0.99 from $0.97 for '07, to $1.47 from $1.38 for '08 following news from JingLong Group, its main wafer supplier, that group will be receiving additional supply from Hemlock... Notes, however, he believes EPS hikes are baked into JASO stock.|

Thisi is cool, JASO will ring the Nasdaq opening bell tomorrow, definitely will build awareness of this company  >:D

--------------
JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO) Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell

Apr 18, 2007 10:41:27 (ET)



ADVISORY, Apr 18, 2007 (PrimeNewswire via COMTEX) --



What:
Samuel Yang, Chief Executive Officer of JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd.
(JASO), will preside over the opening bell.

Where:
NASDAQ MarketSite - 4 Times Square - 43rd & Broadway - Broadcast Studio

When:
Thursday, April 19, 2007 at 9:30 a.m. ET

Contacts:
David Pasquale, EVP
The Ruth Group
646-536-7006; mobile 917-921-8031
[email protected]

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About JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO):

This news release was distributed by PrimeNewswire, www.primenewswire.com

SOURCE: The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. is a fast-growing manufacturer of high-performance solar cells. Based in China, we continue to bridge the gap between financial feasibility and environmental awareness. Our professional, open-minded management team focuses on long-term development in the international solar industry. Innovation, cooperation and integrity are the core values present in the JA Solar philosophy.

Thanks for posting the following news Tokyopua:

• JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (JASO) Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070418/117628.html)
PrimeNewswire (Wed 10:41am)

Of course, the news doesn't change the value of the company, but as you say, it may bring more awareness to this undervalued and extremely fast growing Chinese company involved in the solar market. I enjoyed the business description JASO gave:

«JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. is a fast-growing manufacturer of high-performance solar cells. Based in China, we continue to bridge the gap between financial feasibility and environmental awareness. Our professional, open-minded management team focuses on long-term development in the international solar industry. Innovation, cooperation and integrity are the core values present in the JA Solar philosophy.»

My valuation model says JASO should only be sold at $73.08 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=JASO&portfolio=main), given my current estimates, so I'll keep on holding the stock.

looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today  ???

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

Quote from: Garoh on April 19, 2007, 09:16:27 AM
looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today  ???

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

There are people on CNBC saying this will spark a few days of selloff, but we are still in the early innings of growth in China.  Looks like their market has far to go still, even if their government will have to battle inflation.

Quote from: Garoh on April 19, 2007, 09:16:27 AM
looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today  ???

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

The market never dances twice with the same partner. Stocks will probably close higher today.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 19, 2007, 09:41:32 AM

Quote from: Garoh on April 19, 2007, 09:16:27 AM
looks like the chinese stocks getting a hard hit today  ???

Chinese Economy grew 11% this time and investors are worry of big slow in economy growth next time !!

The market never dances twice with the same partner. Stocks will probably close higher today.

I hope so david  :)

I jumped in today at 25.05. I was happy until ... I saw 24.45. Working back to today's low. I just refreshed my memory by reading the first page of this string. I feel a little bit better. Nobody likes to buy and watch it drop.

I am looking to next week.
All but 2 of the major world indices were down, as you know. 
Follow this link. look for the "tabs" to switch to europe, africa etc.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Long term -- JASO is going to be a homerun.  But it in the short term, it has really become a trading stock, hence the daily 2pt flucuations.  I'm starting to think I will take advantage of that.

My average price for JASO is 26.01

I was watching the "action" the last half hour, and it was some pretty fine work being done: the stock was being "walked down" in pretty small trades towards the close...and at 16:00:56 a trade of 30800 shares went trough.

Nicely done!

I'm keeping mine - I agree with Davids opinion on JASO.

And I'm NOT using automatic stop-loss!  ;)

Quote from: cumulina on April 19, 2007, 04:28:51 PM
My average price for JASO is 26.01

I was watching the "action" the last half hour, and it was some pretty fine work being done: the stock was being "walked down" in pretty small trades towards the close...and at 16:00:56 a trade of 30800 shares went trough.

Nicely done!

I'm keeping mine - I agree with Davids opinion on JASO.

And I'm NOT using automatic stop-loss!  ;)

I was watching the same thing... the minute I saw that I bought some more shares.  My cost average is now $24.23.  Like I said previously, I'm going to start trading this a bit with half of my position.  Nothing wrong with piggybacking on some of the manipulation.

Hey, good idea dragonamg! Look at the "dip" as a "sale". I love sales. lol

Thanks everyone.

These nasty pullbacks really make it difficult for a man to be a long term investor. The devil is always behind the door, saying "how about some short term trading?" Or "how about selling now with a small profit/loss and try to grab it lower? (http://mdteague.com/FlaminDevil)

My take given by 11 years of trading experience, 5 of them under intense day trading in the futures markets, where I made and lost small fortunes, is that you can't listen to the devil !

One has just so many years of life as an investor, and he must do the right things over the years to make the money he dreams of. He can't dream of achieving outstanding results and at the same time keep making the same old mistakes.

But, of course, I'm not expecting anyone to learn from my experience, you have to live it yourself, so do as much short term trading as you please, probably 5 years from now you'll be more calm and will stick to your positions, not entering and exiting with half.

As for JASO we just had a 50% Fibonacci retracement after three extremely powerful white candles. My take is 6 months from now nobody will remember this phase and it will look like a small and absolutely "normal" blip on the long term chart, as the stock will be trading above $50.

My valuation model says JASO (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=JASO&portfolio=main) will only start returning less than 16% a year after it reaches $73.08, so I'll just trust my analysis and keep holding the stock through the inevitable ups and downs.

Close to support $22.50 then a buy!!!! let see if it gets there tomorrow.

Quote from: yukiii on April 19, 2007, 06:54:07 PM
Close to support $22.50 then a buy!!!! let see if it gets there tomorrow.

I really need to learn how to read charts.  How does one determine that there is support at $22.50?  Dosen't the chart above show support at $21.10

Quote from: dragonamg on April 19, 2007, 07:04:34 PM

Quote from: yukiii on April 19, 2007, 06:54:07 PM
Close to support $22.50 then a buy!!!! let see if it gets there tomorrow.

I really need to learn how to read charts.  How does one determine that there is support at $22.50?  Dosen't the chart above show support at $21.10

You and me both would like to know. All I see at about $22.50 is the 61.8 retracement level, but I think if it didn't have a positive reaction there or before, it wouldn't be so good. Back to my books.

I didn't buy this one, already had TSL and didn't want another Chinese solar stock. Went with SPWR before it's breakout. Hasn't been as volatile, instead just riding the upper bollinger band.

hi,
if you take the fib from the W bottom then you get support at the previous resistance.that seem the most natural spot . around 21.10. it is also the 61.8 fib. 22.50 is the 50% fib
maxi

or if you do a fib from the last three white candles . an A B C  pullback the 61 fib becomes the 22.50 ( or there abouts)
maxi

Quote from: cumulina on April 19, 2007, 04:28:51 PM
My average price for JASO is 26.01

I was watching the "action" the last half hour, and it was some pretty fine work being done: the stock was being "walked down" in pretty small trades towards the close...and at 16:00:56 a trade of 30800 shares went trough.

Nicely done!

I'm keeping mine - I agree with Davids opinion on JASO.

And I'm NOT using automatic stop-loss!  ;)

I didnt notice that, thanks for pointing it out.  Time to buy even some more for me to price average lower, I really like this stock and its story.

Very well said.  :D

Quote from: David Randolph on April 19, 2007, 05:53:28 PM

One has just so many years of life as an investor, and he must do the right things over the years to make the money he dreams of. He can't dream of achieving outstanding results and at the same time keep making the same old mistakes.

I don't see any down direction from these levels ....

It's at a discount price now and it should open higher than yestreday's close  :)

Quote from: Garoh on April 20, 2007, 07:30:13 AM
I don't see any down direction from these levels ....

It's at a discount price now and it should open higher than yestreday's close  :)

Yes, I think you are right.  I am seeing BxA = 25.25x25.40 for JASO.  The Shanghai stock exchange made up all its losses from yesterday apparently and the futures are pointing higher today for the market in general.  The Shanghai drop was what hit chinese stocks hard yesterday, so that being erased should likely bring them all back higher again today.

Read a disturbing article in this morning's wsj. Chinese solar companys have in effect been subsidized by the German government and it it may end at some point. We'll see.

Quote from: soxguy on April 21, 2007, 09:32:04 AM
Read a disturbing article in this morning's wsj. Chinese solar companys have in effect been subsidized by the German government and it it may end at some point. We'll see.

By the German government?  Im curious why the Germans would want to help Chinese companies.  I guess this was the paper version of the WSJ, not something you could give an online link to?

The WSJ article claims that the various high flier Chinese solar companies--many of which only recently jumped into the solar bandwagon and were originally businesses completely unrelated to solar--have had much of their growth tied to Germany, which has the world's largest solar market due to its government subsidies of it's vast solar farms. An analyst from Piper Jaffray claims that the subsidies constitute 'welfare' and may be at risk of being discontinued, causing sales in companies such as Trina Solar and JA Solar Holdings to decline. Another risk in this sector is over capacity, the analyst says. Many of the companies are working around the clock to sustain current demand and to build market share but he believes that the growth in future demand isn't rising nearly as fast as the growth in the industry's capacity. He concluded the article by suggesting that profit margins will come under pressure as companies sell below cost to continue to gain market share and that the solar bubble will more than likely burst similar to what happened to internet stocks.

MarketWatch / Weekend Investor
Chinese Solar-Energy Companies
May Be Next Stocks to Burn Investors
By HERB GREENBERG
April 21, 2007

Years ago, when the disk-drive industry was booming and Seagate Technology couldn't add capacity fast enough, the company's chief executive -- the late Alan Shugart -- was asked what would happen when capacity exceeded demand. His answer was akin to, "We'll worry about it then."

Indeed they did, with layoffs, plant closings and price cuts -- something investors, who watched the share price slide, likely won't forget. Such is life maneuvering amid the boom-bust-boom world of technology, where the experience of Seagate is more the norm than the exception.

Next on tap to learn that supply-demand lesson the hard way just might be investors in the handful of Chinese solar companies that have gone public in the U.S. in the past year. These companies have come out of nowhere -- some reformulated from industries unrelated to solar -- to become stock-market darlings amid the recent infatuation with alternative energy.

The solar crowd includes such companies as Trina Solar Ltd., which has been in the solar business since late 2004 (it originally made aluminum siding) and now has a market value of more than $1 billion after going public late last year; JA Solar Holdings Co., in business since May 2005, making products since April 2006, publicly traded in the U.S. since February and now with $1 billion-plus market value; Solarfun Power Holdings Co., which went public late last year and is now valued at nearly $1 billion; and Canadian Solar Inc., another recent initial public offering with China roots that started in 2001 as a maker of solar car chargers.


JA Chief Executive Samuel Yang says a few more Chinese solar upstarts are believed to be waiting in the wings to do an IPO. Plenty more, he says, are looking for ways to cash in on the boom, including companies that used to make clothing and shoes. "Everybody thinks it is such a lucrative industry," he says. To a large extent, it has been. Most of the young publicly traded companies have posted impressive sales and profit growth. That's right: they are posting profits -- lots of it.

But before investors get too excited, consider that much of that growth has been tied to sales in Germany, the largest market for solar energy, where purchases for large fields of solar panels have been subsidized by the government. Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Jesse Pichel, regarded as one of the most seasoned in a rapidly growing field of solar analysts, says that is why he regards much of the sales and profit at these companies as "funny money" and "welfare." "There's a lot of risk that the subsidies don't continue in Germany and I think they will get reduced," he says. That, in turn, will cause demand to slow.

That gets us back to this whole supply-demand thing. When supply outstrips demand, prices tend to fall. That is something to keep in mind because even as demand is slowing, many of these companies are pulling out all stops to expand capacity -- and they are doing it as more competitors are springing up. Consider Canadian Solar, which makes solar panels, which contain solar cells that absorb sunlight. It attributed a fourth-quarter loss in part to a decline in prices even as plants are running around the clock. "We're expanding capacity, but we're expanding to meet firm orders," Chief Executive Shawn Qu says.

While demand in such countries as Spain, South Korea and the U.S. may strengthen, and the business as a whole may get much stronger in future years, Mr. Pichel says it isn't rising as fast as the growth in capacity. As a result, he believes profit margins will continue to come under pressure for the time being as companies start selling below market prices to gain share. Mr. Yang and Mr. Qu believe there will be a shakeout in the industry and that their companies, as low-cost providers, will be among the survivors. Executives of Solarfun and Trina couldn't be reached. Still, between here and there -- wherever there is -- a lot will happen before it gets sorted out. Meantime, there is likely to be a comeuppance that investors in these companies will wish they had anticipated -- as was the case with Internet stocks, memory-chip stocks and, oh yes, disk-drive stocks. History, on Wall Street, has a way of repeating itself.

Thanks for sharing this soxyguy.

A few factors make me not too worried about this for the timeframe that I suppose we will hold this stock:

-Herb Greenberg seems to be an eternal pessimist.  That is his job when doing guest appearances on CNBC for both Mad Money and Fast Money. 
-Subsidies or not, Germany is just one country.  And the US will become a bigger market for Solar due to the "Green Day" Supreme Court ruling of 4/2/2007 forcing the EPA to do its job.
-Not too worried that these were not solar companies prior to recent years.  Japanese companies were like that, for example Hitachi used to be a shipping company before it became a high tech company.  IME many Asian companies are good at turning on a dime and going where the money is. 
-Even if Herby is right, he wont be right tomorrow, its going to take time.

Still interested in what David thinks of course but my initial inclination is not to be too worried.

Quote from: soxguy on April 21, 2007, 10:14:14 PM
MarketWatch / Weekend Investor
Chinese Solar-Energy Companies
May Be Next Stocks to Burn Investors
By HERB GREENBERG
April 21, 2007

Years ago, when the disk-drive industry was booming and Seagate Technology couldn't add capacity fast enough, the company's chief executive -- the late Alan Shugart -- was asked what would happen when capacity exceeded demand. His answer was akin to, "We'll worry about it then."

Indeed they did, with layoffs, plant closings and price cuts -- something investors, who watched the share price slide, likely won't forget. Such is life maneuvering amid the boom-bust-boom world of technology, where the experience of Seagate is more the norm than the exception.

Next on tap to learn that supply-demand lesson the hard way just might be investors in the handful of Chinese solar companies that have gone public in the U.S. in the past year. These companies have come out of nowhere -- some reformulated from industries unrelated to solar -- to become stock-market darlings amid the recent infatuation with alternative energy.

The solar crowd includes such companies as Trina Solar Ltd., which has been in the solar business since late 2004 (it originally made aluminum siding) and now has a market value of more than $1 billion after going public late last year; JA Solar Holdings Co., in business since May 2005, making products since April 2006, publicly traded in the U.S. since February and now with $1 billion-plus market value; Solarfun Power Holdings Co., which went public late last year and is now valued at nearly $1 billion; and Canadian Solar Inc., another recent initial public offering with China roots that started in 2001 as a maker of solar car chargers.


JA Chief Executive Samuel Yang says a few more Chinese solar upstarts are believed to be waiting in the wings to do an IPO. Plenty more, he says, are looking for ways to cash in on the boom, including companies that used to make clothing and shoes. "Everybody thinks it is such a lucrative industry," he says. To a large extent, it has been. Most of the young publicly traded companies have posted impressive sales and profit growth. That's right: they are posting profits -- lots of it.

But before investors get too excited, consider that much of that growth has been tied to sales in Germany, the largest market for solar energy, where purchases for large fields of solar panels have been subsidized by the government. Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Jesse Pichel, regarded as one of the most seasoned in a rapidly growing field of solar analysts, says that is why he regards much of the sales and profit at these companies as "funny money" and "welfare." "There's a lot of risk that the subsidies don't continue in Germany and I think they will get reduced," he says. That, in turn, will cause demand to slow.

That gets us back to this whole supply-demand thing. When supply outstrips demand, prices tend to fall. That is something to keep in mind because even as demand is slowing, many of these companies are pulling out all stops to expand capacity -- and they are doing it as more competitors are springing up. Consider Canadian Solar, which makes solar panels, which contain solar cells that absorb sunlight. It attributed a fourth-quarter loss in part to a decline in prices even as plants are running around the clock. "We're expanding capacity, but we're expanding to meet firm orders," Chief Executive Shawn Qu says.

While demand in such countries as Spain, South Korea and the U.S. may strengthen, and the business as a whole may get much stronger in future years, Mr. Pichel says it isn't rising as fast as the growth in capacity. As a result, he believes profit margins will continue to come under pressure for the time being as companies start selling below market prices to gain share. Mr. Yang and Mr. Qu believe there will be a shakeout in the industry and that their companies, as low-cost providers, will be among the survivors. Executives of Solarfun and Trina couldn't be reached. Still, between here and there -- wherever there is -- a lot will happen before it gets sorted out. Meantime, there is likely to be a comeuppance that investors in these companies will wish they had anticipated -- as was the case with Internet stocks, memory-chip stocks and, oh yes, disk-drive stocks. History, on Wall Street, has a way of repeating itself.

QuoteStill interested in what David thinks of course but my initial inclination is not to be too worried.

Hi Tokyo, thanks for your comments. I'm not worried about the forecasting elements of the article, as I've written at TSL's thread, but unfortunately JASO is going to be stabbed by my valuation model today due to the "$1 B market cap " claim present in the article. But perhaps not in a deadly way, let me explain and make the study as I write.

Yahoo says JASO's market cap is $661.85 M:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=jaso&x=0&y=0
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35969;image)

Market Watch says JASO's market cap is $3.26 B:

http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/jaso
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35970;image)

They're both wrong. But misinformation gets worse, because, over the latest earnings release, we get the following:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35971;image)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35972;image)

The initial share count I had on my valuation model was 26.67 million ADS outstanding (each ADS  represents 3 ordinary shares). If this were the real number of ADS outstanding, the current market cap would then be 26.67 million*$24.82 = $662 M.

But, after some more digging, I found a PDF document published by the company in its website, at JASO's Investor Relation's homepage (http://investors.jasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=208005&p=irol-irhome), dated 3/30/2007 (so, less than one month old), saying the following:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35973;image)

This is sad :'(, instead of the 26.67 million ADS I thought was the initial share count, there are 46.09 million ADS outstanding. This cuts JASO's potential almost in half, because, instead of a $662 M market cap, the company has a $1.14 B market cap. The valuation model stays like this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35974;image)

The estimated share price CAGR went down from 66% to just 38%, and the optimal selling price declined from $73.08 to just $42.29.

The conclusion is JASO is still attractive but a lot less than what it was before this initial share count misunderstanding, which is undoubtedly my fault. After all the stock isn't trading at a deep discount when compared to its peers, it is trading in line with them.

I'll keep holding the stock, even though my profit expectations were severely damaged by this.

David, do you think that all this negative news could already be factored in the share price since JASO fell last week due to the downgrade.  It seems that someone is buying large blocks each time it dips since the stock rallies after each dip.  I wonder if this was intentional since after  3 large white candle days a downgrade comes and once it seems that the stock was stablizing another negative article comes out. I just wonder if all this could already be factored in since the recent article is very weak.  Why would anyone downplay solar energy at a time when the world's energy supplies are dwindling at a rapid pace?  Anyways, JASO could come out with news on a new deal anytime soon!  I plan on holding for awhile longer.  As a last note, I can't stand Herb Greenberg and the Clown "Cramer"!

This stock moves so erratically that who knows what's next,$20 or $30. Fundamentals,governmental decisions and and constant stories in the media take all these solar panel stocks higher over the next 2years  imho.

I'm not sure how to read those other lines and numbers yet but I think this chart looks neat (got the chart from Cumulina's link).
The white lines are the ones I drew.

HERB GREENBERG
How Chinese solar stocks may burn investors
Commentary: Plus, a reminder about a forgotten financial fraud
Print
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By Herb Greenberg, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:23 PM ET Apr 22, 2007

This column first appeared over the weekend in The Wall Street Journal.
SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- Years ago, when the disk-drive industry was booming and Seagate Technology couldn't add capacity fast enough, the company's chief executive the late Alan Shugart was asked what would happen when capacity exceeded demand. His answer was akin to, "We'll worry about it then."
Indeed they did, with layoffs, plant closings and price cuts something investors, who watched the share price slide, likely won't forget. Such is life maneuvering amid the boom-bust-boom world of technology, where the experience of Seagate is more the norm than the exception.
Next on tap to learn that supply-demand lesson the hard way just might be investors in the handful of Chinese solar companies that have gone public in the U.S. in the past year. These companies have come out of nowhere some reformulated from industries unrelated to solar to become stock-market darlings in the recent infatuation with alternative energy.
The solar crowd includes such companies as Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL :


, , ) , which has been in the solar business since late 2004 (it originally made aluminum siding) and now has a market value of more than $1 billion after going public late last year; JA Solar Holdings Co. (JASO :


, , ) , in business since May 2005, making products since April 2006, publicly traded in the U.S. since February and now with $1 billion-plus market value; Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (SOLF :



, , ) , which went public late last year and is now valued at nearly $1 billion; and Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ :

, , ) , another recent initial public offering with China roots that started in 2001 as a maker of solar car chargers.
JA Chief Executive Samuel Yang says a few more Chinese solar upstarts are believed to be waiting in the wings to do an IPO. Plenty more, he says, are looking for ways to cash in on the boom, including companies that used to make clothing and shoes. "Everybody thinks it is such a lucrative industry," he says. To a large extent, it has been. Most of the young publicly traded companies have posted impressive sales and profit growth. That's right: they are posting profits lots of it.
But before investors get too excited, consider that much of that growth has been tied to sales in Germany, the largest market for solar energy, where purchases for large fields of solar panels have been subsidized by the government. Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Jesse Pichel, regarded as one of the most seasoned in a rapidly growing field of solar analysts, says that is why he regards much of the sales and profit at these companies as "funny money" and "welfare." "There's a lot of risk that the subsidies don't continue in Germany, and I think they will get reduced," he says. That, in turn, will cause demand to slow.
That gets us back to this whole supply-demand thing. When supply outstrips demand, prices tend to fall. That is something to keep in mind because even as demand is slowing, many of these companies are pulling out all stops to expand capacity and they are doing it as more competitors are springing up. Consider Canadian Solar, which makes solar panels, which contain solar cells that absorb sunlight. It attributed a fourth-quarter loss in part to a decline in prices even as plants are running around the clock. "We're expanding capacity, but we're expanding to meet firm orders," Chief Executive Shawn Qu says.
While demand in such countries as Spain, South Korea and the U.S. may strengthen, and the business as a whole may get much stronger in future years, Pichel says it isn't rising as fast as the growth in capacity. As a result, he believes profit margins will continue to come under pressure for the time being as companies start selling below market prices to gain share. Yang and Qu believe there will be a shakeout in the industry and that their companies, as low-cost providers, will be among the survivors. Executives of Solarfun and Trina couldn't be reached. Still, between here and there wherever "there" is a lot will happen before it gets sorted out. Meantime, there is likely to be a comeuppance that investors in these companies will wish they had anticipated as was the case with Internet stocks, memory-chip stocks and, oh yes, disk-drive stocks. History, on Wall Street, has a way of repeating itself.
The forgotten financial fraud
A trial in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California started April 12 for the remaining top executives (and an outside auditor) of Peregrine Systems Inc. who haven't already pleaded guilty. Peregrine, you may recall, is the San Diego software company that was alleged to have overstated revenue by $509 million and understated losses by $2.6 billion over a 33-month period starting in 1999. Because of the timing, it was overshadowed as a national story by the Enron collapse and relegated to a footnote in the annals of corporate fraud. It is a tale, however, that deserves not to be forgotten.

we got a flag here , and I hope it doesnt break the support which is  22.50 for tomorrow

The market views the WSJ article as favorable? I can live with that.

Quote from: soxguy on April 23, 2007, 10:27:24 AM
The market views the WSJ article as favorable? I can live with that.

Or maybe the market does the opposite of what Herb Greenberg and Clown Cramer say to do since they seem to be far more wrong than right.   ;D

Greenberg was just on CNBC rehashing the warnings in his article. Let's see if it affects the solar stocks going forward.

Quote from: soxguy on April 23, 2007, 01:28:48 PM
Greenberg was just on CNBC rehashing the warnings in his article. Let's see if it affects the solar stocks going forward.

I saw that. The fact that he had to bash it on TV tells me he is purposely trying to bring them down.  I guess he was mad that his article didn't do the trick, so he goes on TV to try again.  I think we close towards the high of day.

Quote from: mbaugh on April 23, 2007, 01:33:01 PM

Quote from: soxguy on April 23, 2007, 01:28:48 PM
Greenberg was just on CNBC rehashing the warnings in his article. Let's see if it affects the solar stocks going forward.

I saw that. The fact that he had to bash it on TV tells me he is purposely trying to bring them down.  I guess he was mad that his article didn't do the trick, so he goes on TV to try again.  I think we close towards the high of day.

Haha, that would be funny.  Call it the Greenberg Contrarian Indicator lol.  I sometimes think Herb knows his draw to audiences is the drama he creates, not the content he provides.  I mean, his veins pop out on his neck he makes his points so forcefully lol.

Have you notice that when Cramer's show begins they display a small logo at the bottom left corner of the screen with the small face of Cramer wearing that goaty? He looks so much Russian communist Lenin that stood at the roots of the October 1917 revolution where the "poor" were supposed to beat the "rich". I guess Cramer is just like Lenin, out there to make us poor. No siree!  :)

Resource News: Current Research on JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd
Monday , April 23, 2007 12:04ET

Apr 23, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Current Research on JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd (NASDAQ:JASO)

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells solar cells primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers monocrystalline solar cells. The company sells its products primarily through a team of sales and marketing personnel to solar module manufacturers, who assemble and integrate its solar cells into modules and systems that convert sunlight into electricity. It also sells its products to customers in Germany, Sweden, Spain, South Korea, and the United States. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Ningjin, the People's Republic of China.

Shares were up 9% after being publicly traded in the U.S. since February and now with $1 billion-plus market value.

Next on tap to learn that supply-demand lesson the hard way just might be investors in the handful of Chinese solar companies that have gone public in the U.S. in the past year. These companies have come out of nowhere some reformulated from industries unrelated to solar to become stock-market darlings in the recent infatuation with alternative energy.

The solar crowd includes such companies as Trina Solar Ltd. which has been in the solar business since late 2004 (it originally made aluminum siding) and now has a market value of more than $1 billion after going public late last year; JA Solar Holdings Co. in business since May 2005, making products since April 2006, publicly traded in the U.S. since February and now with $1 billion-plus market value; Solarfun Power Holdings Co. which went public late last year and is now valued at nearly $1 billion; and Canadian Solar Inc. another recent initial public offering with China roots that started in 2001 as a maker of solar car chargers.

JA Chief Executive Samuel Yang says a few more Chinese solar upstarts are believed to be waiting in the wings to do an IPO. Plenty more, he says, are looking for ways to cash in on the boom, including companies that used to make clothing and shoes. "Everybody thinks it is such a lucrative industry," he says. To a large extent, it has been. Most of the young publicly traded companies have posted impressive sales and profit growth. That's right: they are posting profits lots of it.

But before investors get too excited, consider that much of that growth has been tied to sales in Germany, the largest market for solar energy, where purchases for large fields of solar panels have been subsidized by the government. Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Jesse Pichel, regarded as one of the most seasoned in a rapidly growing field of solar analysts, says that is why he regards much of the sales and profit at these companies as "funny money" and "welfare." "There's a lot of risk that the subsidies don't continue in Germany, and I think they will get reduced," he says. That, in turn, will cause demand to slow.

That gets us back to this whole supply-demand thing. When supply outstrips demand, prices tend to fall. That is something to keep in mind because even as demand is slowing, many of these companies are pulling out all stops to expand capacity and they are doing it as more competitors are springing up. Consider Canadian Solar, which makes solar panels, which contain solar cells that absorb sunlight. It attributed a fourth-quarter loss in part to a decline in prices even as plants are running around the clock. "We're expanding capacity, but we're expanding to meet firm orders," Chief Executive Shawn Qu says.

While demand in such countries as Spain, South Korea and the U.S. may strengthen, and the business as a whole may get much stronger in future years, Pichel says it isn't rising as fast as the growth in capacity. As a result, he believes profit margins will continue to come under pressure for the time being as companies start selling below market prices to gain share.

Yang and Qu believe there will be a shakeout in the industry and that their companies, as low-cost providers, will be among the survivors. Executives of Solarfun and Trina couldn't be reached. Still, between here and there wherever "there" is a lot will happen before it gets sorted out. Meantime, there is likely to be a comeuppance that investors in these companies will wish they had anticipated as was the case with Internet stocks, memory-chip stocks and, oh yes, disk-drive stocks. History, on Wall Street, has a way of repeating itself.

Hi la-onda, that research piece is almost a direct copy/paste of the Herb Greenberg article in the Wall Street Journal weekend edition.

Quote from: mbaugh on April 22, 2007, 06:15:26 PM
David, do you think that all this negative news could already be factored in the share price since JASO fell last week due to the downgrade.  It seems that someone is buying large blocks each time it dips since the stock rallies after each dip.  I wonder if this was intentional since after  3 large white candle days a downgrade comes and once it seems that the stock was stablizing another negative article comes out. I just wonder if all this could already be factored in since the recent article is very weak.  Why would anyone downplay solar energy at a time when the world's energy supplies are dwindling at a rapid pace?  Anyways, JASO could come out with news on a new deal anytime soon!  I plan on holding for awhile longer.  As a last note, I can't stand Herb Greenberg and the Clown "Cramer"!

Hi mbaugh :)

It seems the stock responded positively to all bearish arguments, and when that happens ... it usually means we'll see much higher prices sooner rather than later.

As for Herb Greenberg and "Cramer the Clown", I don't know their work very well, because unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately) here in Europe CNBC transmits Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien at the time of Cramer's show. I once subscribed Cramer's service at www.thestreet.com and he held about 100 different holdings and has been underperforming the general market since inception. Another thing I didn't enjoy about his service was that he never seemed to buy or sell anything, just "buying a bit now" to "sell a bit later" of the same old core positions.

But let's focus on JASO. Technically the stock looks extremely powerful and will probably breakout to new highs above $28.30. Fundamentally, perhaps I'll need to lower my expectations just a bit more, considering more than 3% as a dilution factor and maybe reduce my net profit margin estimate from the current 10%. I still need to study the different methods of production of TSL and JASO to get to a new net profit margin estimate.

As of today I have no doubts I'll continue holding JASO.

Yes David after it broke the Flag resistance , technically the target price is 35  ;D

Good work David

some reading

Solar Energy Stocks: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
ENER, ESLR, FSLR, JASO, SOLF, STP, TSL, WFR

http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/33275?source=d_email&u=66295

Quote from: magu on April 24, 2007, 02:50:59 PM
some reading

Solar Energy Stocks: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
ENER, ESLR, FSLR, JASO, SOLF, STP, TSL, WFR

http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/33275?source=d_email&u=66295

Thanks for the nice article magu. The author made the same mistake I initially made on JASO, concerning the number of ADS outstanding.

Over TSL's thread the first indication I have is JASO doesn't have a cost of production disadvantage against TSL, so I'll keep my 10% net profit margin estimate for JASO. I thought I would increase  my dilution factor from 3% (1.03 in my valuation model), but no, because 46.09 million ADS outstanding was already the # of ADS outstanding in the company's IPO back in February 7, 2007:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36131;image)

If we divide the 138,270,000 ordinary shares outstanding immediately after the IPO we get 46,090,000, which is the number of ADS outstanding. Each ADS represents 3 ordinary shares, so all information is consistent.

I'm glad I'm able to maintain my estimates for JASO, the stock remains quite attractive:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36133;image)

Given my estimates, today's optimal selling price for JASO is $42.29, so I'll keep on holding the stock.

It's up 5% pre-market ... any News ?

Garoh,

Looks like this may be helping the pre market spike.


JASO Trade
News 26.5 0
JA Solar Holdings Started At Outperform At Raymond James

Apr 25, 2007 08:22:11 (ET)

JASO traded at a new all time intraday high yesterday, but it closed just a bit shy of it. My valuation model says the stock will eventually breakout to new highs, since the optimal selling price is $42.29 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=JASO&portfolio=main). I'll continue holding JASO. 

     

Investor's Business Daily
Another Chinese Solar Cell Maker Joins The Subsidized Fray
Thursday April 26, 7:00 pm ET
Amy Reeves


No question about it: Solar power is energy's latest "gold rush." New government subsidies in several countries have brought many new start-ups onto the market, where their stocks have exploded.
Yet as we saw with the dot-com bubble -- and more recently with ethanol -- gold rushes carry risks. Some fly-by-night operations pop up just to take advantage of the hype.

ADVERTISEMENT


Though he heads one of the newer outfits, JA Solar (NasdaqGM:JASO - News) Chief Executive Samuel Yang says his company is here to stay.

"We have the right philosophy," he said. "We're not just jumping into it to make money. We're working for the earth."

Not that JA Solar isn't making money in the meantime. Founded in August 2005, it only started selling its solar cells last year but made 37 cents a share doing it. This year, analysts expect sales growth near 90% with roughly 30% profit growth.

Though it's going up against more established players like Suntech Power (NYSE:STP - News), analysts say JA Solar has some advantages in the market. Its parent company is JingLong Group, China's largest maker of silicon wafers. Since the solar boom started, there's been a frantic scramble for these wafers, which are used to make the photovoltaic cells that make up solar panels.

JA Solar's close relationship with JingLong has helped it get wafers on favorable terms, which it has also filled out with a deal from Hemlock Semiconductor, a joint venture of Dow Corning and two Japanese firms. It has procured all of the wafers it needs for this year and 80% of its needs for next year.

"We think getting a reliable source of silicon from an incumbent player is critical in (determining) which companies are able to build capacity and take market share in the industry," said analyst Stuart Bush of RBC Capital Markets, an underwriter for the firm's February initial public offering.

The silicon crunch has been especially hard on a sector that's always trying to cut costs because the larger competitor for all solar players is the traditional fossil-fuel industry. Currently the field relies on government subsidies to compete on cost, but the ultimate plan is independence.

Still, Yang says, he's not willing to sacrifice quality. Other cell makers use the thinnest wafers they can get away with to save money on silicon, he says. But these makes the cells break more easily. Yang claims that in fact many solar modules come off the ship with cells already broken, but customers don't realize this.

"Our warranty is 25 years," he said. "If the price is better, but it lasts only 10 years, then the price is really expensive."

The quality pitch has landed JA Solar some big customers.

On the solar-power supply chain, JA Solar sits smack in the middle. Companies like JingLong make the silicon and cut it into wafers, which JA Solar makes into cells. It sells these to companies that assemble and install the modules, including PowerLight, now a unit of SunPower (NasdaqGM:SPWR - News). Another customer is Crown Renewable Energy.

Not all solar companies have JA Solar's singular focus. Suntech makes both cells and modules, while Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL - News) is trying to get the whole sequence under one roof.

Yang, however, thinks the cell-only strategy is appropriate, since that's where the managers' expertise lies. Before JA Solar's founding, Yang worked for a Chinese cell distributor and also worked two years in marketing at Suntech. Chief Technology Officer Ximing Dai used to be an academic and engineer specializing in photovoltaics in Australia.

Analyst Pierre Maccagno of Needham Research (another underwriter) says that one advantage of specializing in cells is that it has lower selling, general and administrative expenses than some other parts of the supply chain. On the other hand, he says this limits the company's marketing abilities, since it doesn't deal directly with end customers.

Bush says he doesn't expect the firm to move into module making, since that's a low-value-added business. He does think it may expand in the other direction, however -- into making the much-needed silicon wafers.

For the foreseeable future, though, making high-quality cells in the low-rent location of China is enough to compete on the global market, Bush says.

"Right now, you're effectively playing the spread in the market price for silicon and the market price for cells," he said. "We believe that long term, as silicon becomes less of a percentage of costs, their lower manufacturing costs vs. producers in Europe and America will be an advantage."

Still, the gold rush can be tricky to negotiate. After JA Solar's stock shot up 45% in just three days this month, CIBC World Markets analyst Jeff Osborne hit it with a downgrade, saying such a valuation for what was basically a commodity player wasn't justified. Osborne was not available for comment, but he kept his rating at "sector perform."

Not all solar companies have JA Solar's singular focus. Suntech makes both cells and modules, while Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL - News) is trying to get the whole sequence under one roof.

Hmm, good article. So which do you think is best? Jaso with maybe higher quality, higher cost, or Trina working to lower the price of solar energy, maybe at the expense of quality? How about Trina's strategy of vertical integration? Could be a good debate on this.


have you guys read about AEIS? Not a pure solar play at all, but the market loved their ER which included this;

"We are pleased with our results this quarter and are particularly encouraged by the strength in the semiconductor and solar markets. Semiconductor revenues were sequentially 8% higher than the fourth quarter of 2006, and solar revenues were 103% higher from the prior quarter representing 7% of our overall sales," said Dr. Hans Betz, president and chief executive officer of Advanced Energy."

Solar energy revs grew 103%, but still represent ONLY 7% of overall sales of this well managed, profitable, fast growing and diversified company. LOTS of room for mucho growth still in the solar area.

Read more about on thread;

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8942.0

Thanks for those articles and comments soxguy and BigSully1 :)

There are things in that article that worry me, especially this:

«Founded in August 2005, it only started selling its solar cells last year but made 37 cents a share doing it. This year, analysts expect sales growth near 90% with roughly 30% profit growth.»

On my valuation model I have stronger revenue growth of 120%. I guess the 30% only EPS growth is due to the increase in the # of ADS outstanding. The stock also failed to breakout yesterday, and we have a pretty strong resistance level around $28. I've been expecting the best for JASO, but now I'm going to insert just a bit less optimistic estimates in my valuation model, like I did for TSL.

1) I'll increase my expected dilution rate from 3% to 6%, because, after all, this is a Chinese company and recent IPO, and we know how the Chinese usually dilute value through American shareholders;

2) I'll reduce my revenue CAGR estimate from 120% to 100%;

3) I'll reduce my long term net profit margin from 5 to 10%. If the sector lives on subsidies, even though there can be more subsidies, I don't think governments will subsidize fat net profit margins. 5% seems reasonable for now;

4) I'll keep my 35 times earnings multiple, which can be somewhat high

The results come out like this:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36245;image)

Given these less optimistic estimates, the model says JASO will decline about 5.5% a year going forward, so, not attractive at all. I believe the risks pointed are quite real and the stock looks overvalued. I'll take my 8% or so profit and will look for more attractive investments.

The trading plan for JASO is SELL.

Hmmmm.... I have decided to hold both my JASO, and also STP and SOEN.OB

I wonder how much of today's slide in JASO's price was due to the "3SOF-effect"? Hopefully most of it.  ;D

I see only upside to the solar-industry, so these stock are long-time holdings for me.

I hope that I'm not alone here...?  ;)

Cumulina:

David wisely stated in his report:
"The stock also failed to breakout yesterday, and we have a pretty strong resistance level around $28."

Nevertheless in the long run the solar industry will be in an upward trend, but right now
we probably be able to pick them up at lower levels, securing present profits.

Anyway wish you the best good luck in your trades and wil be very glad if you make
more money on this stock

Quote from: jorgegr on April 27, 2007, 12:42:55 PM
Nevertheless in the long run the solar industry will be in an upward trend, but right now
we probably be able to pick them up at lower levels, securing present profits.

I'm with you... looking to buy-back into JASO around $20

Will have to go through a lot of supports before reaching 20 but
in any case will try to get in again @ 21 where I see high support
in my opinion.

Quote from: jorgegr on April 27, 2007, 01:19:54 PM
Will have to go through a lot of supports before reaching 20 but
in any case will try to get in again @ 21 where I see high support
in my opinion.

Quote from: dragonamg on April 27, 2007, 12:45:14 PM

Quote from: jorgegr on April 27, 2007, 12:42:55 PM
Nevertheless in the long run the solar industry will be in an upward trend, but right now
we probably be able to pick them up at lower levels, securing present profits.

I'm with you... looking to buy-back into JASO around $20

I hope the best, the VERY best for you guys, but not that JASO slides down to $20 -$21!  ;)

JASO did nicely towards friday's close, with good volume.

Below is a 2-day chart.

David - do you plan on buying back either JASO or TSL at any particular level?

Is there anyone but me still holding JASO?

I'm looking fwd. to Q1 tomorrow!

;D ;D ;D

Upgrade today:

AP
JA Solar Shares Climb
Monday May 14, 1:09 pm ET
JA Solar Holdings Shares Rise As Analyst Starts Coverage With "Buy" Rating

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of China's JA Solar Holdings Co. climbed Monday after an analyst began coverage of the stock with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the solar cell manufacturer's low-cost structure and secure supply of a key raw material.

JA Solar has all the polysilicon wafers it needs in 2007 already secured and has about 70 percent of its supply needed for 2008 under contract, said American Technology Research analyst John Hardy in a report.

Polysilicon, the material used to build solar cells, is in short supply and has gotten substantially more expensive in recent years.

JA Solar makes solar cells in China at a lower cost than rivals elsewhere and is building up its production capacity, Hardy said. Capacity of 75 megawatts in 2006 currently is expected to swell to 175 megawatts this year.

Hardy rated the stock a "Buy" and set a price target of $32, implying growth of 21.9 percent over its finishing price Friday of $26.25.

His outlook on the sector as a whole is also bullish. Hardy noted that the political and cultural climate in the U.S. and abroad has, at least since last year, become increasingly receptive to alternative energy options, including solar.

Shares of JA Solar rose $1.48, or 5.6 percent, to $27.74 in afternoon trading. The stock has moved between $16.17 and $28.88 since the stock debuted in February.

The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Tuesday.

Do you know, why is JASO going up currently? Are you holding it? And where is short term target? 8)

I just sold JASO today at 28.83

Still holding STP and SOEN.OB

Keeping an eye on JASO, ASTI and LDK.

I just sold JASO today at 28.83

Still holding STP and SOEN.OB

Keeping an eye on JASO, ASTI and LDK.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks,
I sold JASO today as well and bought BRLC.  I am in ICOC and wait for news of SMCI (IPO2007).

JASO has formed an inverse H&S pattern and broke out. The entire solar enegry sector has been drawing investors' attention recently. TSL's sales grew well in Germany and Italy. TSL hi the $39 support and went up. I picked it at $40.6. Both TSL and JASO project higher sales in 2007. The onlyconcern is raising prices of polycrystalline silicon. Anybody has more info on that? WFR that makes the silicon projects steady revenues, but their share price isn't reelly growing.

JASO all time high. ;)