3SOF

Over the past 6 months we've tried several methods for discovering and analyzing new stock candidates for the Main Portfolio. I think the one that worked better was the analysis on demand, three per trading day method.

The problem I have in choosing stock candidates myself is that I make a "mental" or "just on paper" analysis and then I lose the motivation needed to make a complete in depth video analysis. Another problem is that you keep asking for my opinion on many stocks (either through the message board, private messages or e-mails) and I don't know which ones to cover (and I can't cover them all).

So here's the method we'll adopt, hopefully for many months or even years to come:

1) Every trading day I'll open this thread for three new requests for analysis, precisely at 11 AM, US ET;
2) Only one request per Premium Member allowed (on each trading day, you can request several analysis on more days);
3) The first three stock symbols I get as a reply to this thread will be covered on the next day's morning.

So, which three stocks should I cover next?

(if you're still interested you can repeat the requests of the "Looking for a performance boost (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9422.0)" thread, I'm going to move that thread to the Member's Corner)

Thank you for your participation :)

David,

I just requested OFI on the other analysis on demand thread.  The company reported disappointing earning due to startup costs from 32 new products.  Eight of those new products were from the Heinz Corporation.

Would you please take another look at OFI?

Thanks.

AOB  :)

PMFG

Ok, we got OFI, AOB and PMFG, thank you :)

This post will be locked until tomorrow at 11 AM, US ET, when I'll unlock it and request three more stocks to be analyzed.

I recently made an analysis on OFI, which you can find here, but I'll take a fresh new look at it tomorrow:




Thanks :)

I hate to say this and I'm sorry, but an unexpected event in my personal life won't allow me to make the analysis on OFI, AOB and PMFG tomorrow, just on Thursday :(

I'll request three new analysis to make on Thursday (at 11 am, ET, after I publish the first three), because I won't be near a computer all day tomorrow, as I need to travel due to family needs. Again, sorry for this.

AOB brief technical & fundamental analysis:

OFI's analysis is almost done and I'll publish it here (PFMG too). Now I'm requesting three suggestions from you to analyze tomorrow, thanks :)

TSYS

Quote from: tested411 on May 10, 2007, 11:02:26 AM
TSYS

TSYS, ok. What else?

I'm always getting e-mails and private messages requesting analysis, but from now on this will be the only space and time to request these, because I don't have time to cover them all, just about three per trading. Well, if you don't choose two more, I will :)

David, can you look at GTI please. thanks!!

Quote from: njshiva on May 10, 2007, 11:16:10 AM
David, can you look at GTI please. thanks!!

GTI, sure. Give me one more, thanks !

IGLD - earnings next Tuesday morning

David,

Since you are analyzing my pick for yesterday, I'll understand if you do someone else's today.

Thank you!

also HSOA your one time favorite  ;)

Ok, I have TSYS, GTI and IGLD for tomorrow. HSOA didn't make it njshiva, perhaps tomorrow :)

(I'll close this thread now until tomorrow at 11 AM, ET - Just the analysis will be posted here between now and then)

Thanks for your participation :)

OFI's brief technical & fundamental analysis:

PMFG's brief technical & fundamental analysis:

TSYS's brief technical & fundamental analysis:



(results were out today and they were bang in line with estimates, so the market is feeling just a bit disappointed as the stock is down 3.4% this morning - but everything seems on track in terms of long term fundamental trends)

IDCC, they supply chips to NVTL.

Ok, I still need to post the analysis on GTI and IGLD today, but I need the three stock symbols for tomorrow.

For which 3 stocks would you like me to make a brief technical and fundamental analysis?

Thanks, have a nice day :)

(I already have IDCC, thanks coolhead (really) ;D)

ROY

TESO

Ok fellas, I got the three (never heard about any of them, which is nice), they are IDCC, ROY and TESO.

Thanks :)

GTI's brief technical & fundamental analysis:

IGLD brief technical & fundamental analysis:




IGLD is down about 6% in pre-market because the company missed basic EPS estimates by a penny, but I still don't see it as an attractive long term investment. But thanks for the suggestion, I'll look for more at 11 AM, ET, when I'll open this thread. Thanks :)

Hi, I know I'm falling behind on these Analysis on Demand and need to catch up, but please give me three more suggestions to cover tomorrow, thanks :)

EXM - but I hope you will still do TESO.

Well someone requested HSOA the other day too late. That might be a good one.

Quote from: Jim897 on May 15, 2007, 11:10:42 AM
EXM - but I hope you will still do TESO.

Sure, TESO is on my list. It will come after IDCC (the one I'm making now) and ROY. Thanks Jim897 :)

Quote from: David Randolph on May 11, 2007, 11:02:15 AM
Ok, I still need to post the analysis on GTI and IGLD today, but I need the three stock symbols for tomorrow.

For which 3 stocks would you like me to make a brief technical and fundamental analysis?

Thanks, have a nice day :)

(I already have IDCC, thanks coolhead (really) ;D)

David, thanks for the analysis on GTI.
I got in at mid 12. I will let it run for a while  :)

Hi David,

Can you tell me what you think of CTCH?

Thank you,

Ken

Ok, I got EXM, HSOA and CTCH. Probably it will take me today and tomorrow to catch up, I'll request three new ones on Thursday. Thanks :)

IDCC brief technical & fundamental analysis:



Unfortunately I couldn't derive estimates for my valuation model on IDCC, the stock doesn't fit my strategy. But thanks realcoolhead :)

ROY technical & fundamental analysis:

EXM technical & fundamental analysis:

Technical & fundamental analysis for TESO:

The two stocks I'm covering now, HSOA and CTCH, historically are "heavy diluters". Please check the following link before requesting analysis, so you can see the historical share count evolution:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=hsoa&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann

When the share count rose a lot over the years it will be much harder for me to find the stock attractive. At 11 AM I'll open this thread for you to request 3 analysis, thank you :)

Before you go to lunch, I would like to request you two suggestions to cover tomorrow morning. Just two because I already have XING on the covering list, I'm sure many people is interested in a fresh new look at this stock, why is it down so much over the short term?

So, the first two replies I get to this thread will be the stocks to cover tomorrow (HSOA and CTCH are coming up).

I'll also be at the chat from 12:00 to 13:00, I want to make this an habit.

Thank you for your participation :)

What do you think about  HAYN?


Market Cap (intraday):   1.03B
Enterprise Value (17-May-07)3:   1.03B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):   17.38
Forward P/E (fye 30-Sep-08) 1:   13.32

DETAILS   
Index Membership:   N/A
Sector:   Basic Materials
Industry:   Steel & Iron
Full Time Employees:   1,072

BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Haynes International, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes alloys, which are used primarily in the aerospace, land based gas turbine, and chemical processing industries. It provides high temperature resistant alloys (HTA products) and corrosion resistant alloys (CRA products). HTA products are used by manufacturers of equipment that is subjected to extremely high temperatures, such as jet engines for the aerospace industry, gas turbine engines for power generation, waste incineration equipment, and industrial heating equipment. The company�s CRA products are used in applications that require resistance to extreme corrosion, such as chemical processing, power plant emissions control, and hazardous waste treatment. Haynes International produces its HTA and CRA high-performance alloys primarily in sheet, coil, and plate forms, as well as in seamless and welded tubulars, and bar, billet, and wire forms. The company sells its products primarily through its direct sales organization, which operates from 14 locations in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1912 and is based in Kokomo, Indiana.

CAM

15 minutes gone, since nobody picked one stock, I'll pick one myself, an old friend: ANGN. I want to know what made it run so high and if it can go higher after the current consolidation phase.

(lol, while I was writing, I got the two, so ANGN stays for the next time).

The two winners are HAYN and CAM. Thanks :)

I had the HSOA analysis ready since yesterday, and I wanted to buy/recommend it today, but I felt so tired that didn't do it, and now there were great news out for that company (awesome news), and I'm sure it will be up a lot today. I'll post my analysis in half an hour anyway ...

Hey David... I don't post anything too often, but check out OMR - it's ship wreck finding company that found a huge loot... 500,000 million dollars worth.

SXE

HSOA technical & fundamental analysis:




Up 16% :'( Just what I needed ... well, a man needs to be prepared for stuff like this.  I still find the stock attractive at current levels.

Quote from: LSUJay on May 18, 2007, 10:14:48 AM
Hey David... I don't post anything too often, but check out OMR - it's ship wreck finding company that found a huge loot... 500,000 million dollars worth.

It seems like huge news LSUJay. But how do you know it is worth $500 M?

• Odyssey's Latest Shipwreck Find Yields over 500,000 Silver and Gold Coins (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070518/20070518005315.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri 9:15am)

I couldn't justify the valuation before, but with this news, perhaps I could, but I would need to know more details. The main point is to value the news correctly, because there's no sustainability in fundamentals without this news, since the company is a $350 M market cap company with 2006 sales of just $5 M and a net income loss of ($19 M). Book value is just $17 M.

Now that I look at the chart I definitely see some inside information being leaked yesterday, look at the volume spike just before the news. Again, how do you get to the $500 M worth? If that's the case the stock is worth a good 50% more than the current price.

Thanks :)

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 10:48:27 AM

Quote from: LSUJay on May 18, 2007, 10:14:48 AM
Hey David... I don't post anything too often, but check out OMR - it's ship wreck finding company that found a huge loot... 500,000 million dollars worth.

It seems like huge news LSUJay. But how do you know it is worth $500 M?

• Odyssey's Latest Shipwreck Find Yields over 500,000 Silver and Gold Coins (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070518/20070518005315.html?.v=1)
Business Wire (Fri 9:15am)

I couldn't justify the valuation before, but with this news, perhaps I could, but I would need to know more details. The main point is to value the news correctly, because there's no sustainability in fundamentals without this news, since the company is a $350 M market cap company with 2006 sales of just $5 M and a net income loss of ($19 M). Book value is just $17 M.

Now that I look at the chart I definitely see some inside information being leaked yesterday, look at the volume spike just before the news. Again, how do you get to the $500 M worth? If that's the case the stock is worth a good 50% more than the current price.

Thanks :)

They found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

QuoteThey found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

What's the size of the world market in terms of silver coins, does anyone have a clue? I just wonder if a 500,000 finding won't depress worldwide prices for the coins, I mean, will they have the same value, they're not so rare after all ...

Yes, maybe in the old 3 SOF days, but now the stock wouldn't fit my valuation model (and it is below the opening price). Good luck if you own it LSUJay :)

(I'm going to close this thread now, will post CTCH's analysis in a moment)

David whats your take on BUCY?

is there any change to get a DIVX comment from you, David?

tia
O.

Oopps, I forgot to close the thread, and you gave me two more ;D

Of course, I would love to cover all stocks on the planet today, but ... it's not possible. Perhaps I'll start making just a few quick comments and only if it sounds really interesting I'll go for a more in depth analysis. This way I'll keep this thread opened, to talk stocks in general.

DIVX, I know Ramsburg loved it ... Jesus, it has been sliding hard. I'm sure you know why la-onda. Did they dilute? I'll take a look when I have some more time, not in the best shape today.

BUCY? Nice fundamental trends, but already $2.1 B market cap trading at 28 times trailing earnings (industry average is 19). Sector is interesting, but the stock seems fairly valued at first sight.

David, on SXE it's a recent IPO (Nov) and there is lots of potential for dilution, so you might want to toss it out right away. I already bought a small amount in early Feb. I believe the company has excellent growth potential as you can read from the recent events

Very nice contracts awarded. Aquisition. Company beat consensus and raised guidance. Upgrade by Wachovia to market outperform.

Before you close this thread, how about BWLD for the long-term. ;)

David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 18, 2007, 11:52:20 AM
David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

Ah Nick, your private message didn't let me sleep tonight, as I kept thinking "how did I sell that wonderful stock and didn't get back in before the run up?" It's really bad when one starts thinking about what he made wrong in the past, or what he could have made right. There are no "could haves", if I could have, I would have, it's that simple (or it should be).

About your question, I sold MCZ with a small profit, I believe, because at the time I got worried about the general market, and didn't got the nerve to get back into it when I turned bullish again. MCZ's trade helps me in my new methodology of only considering company specific information and ignoring macro or general market developments.

I'll cover MCZ when I have some time, I hope before the next push up. At first sight the chart and fundamentals are very attractive.

Thanks David,
Thats good to know..i was scared there was something in the co. that you didnt like..Ive started a small position this morning & will monitor it closely to add more as it looks undervalued. Ofcourse the upcoming earning report is key.

Reading the last quarterly report, i noticed that "During the third quarter of fiscal 2007, approximately 28% of total net sales were transacted outside of the United States. The majority of our international business is presently conducted in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. As such, we are exposed to translation adjustments when converting, under the current rate method, our foreign subsidiaries' functional currency financial statements to U.S. dollar, which is our reporting currency."


And we all know that the USD was pretty weak the past few months..cud be interesting.
Nick

PS - dont lose sleep over seling MCZ too early / missing the run..i think uve had enough success stories to make up for this. The overall return of the portfolio is what kinds..its impossible to nail every single trade.

Quote from: Houlahan on May 18, 2007, 11:42:11 AM
David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

I don't screen or search for new stocks, the ones you guys (and girls) give me are more than enough to keep me busy. But I have a technical filter that I like to use when looking for stocks on fire, which is a Metastock filter ... are you interested?

After getting the stocks that are technically bullish I get lost looking at their fundamentals. Sometimes a few stocks pop up immediately as very interesting, it depends. Unfortunately the strategy is complex enough for me not to be able to explain it in a single post, but you have the 3 SOF Strategy document to read if you want to.

But basically, I like companies where the share count didn't grew much over the past few years, healthy balance sheet, that have strong revenue growth, high and stable net profit margin and finally that are trading below average valuation when compared to their industry. Usually this "status" doesn't last long, so the best chance is to find stocks with a recent relevant change in the fundamental trends ... fundamentals have to change for stock prices to change in a meaningful way, so I'm interested in changes in fundamentals.

For example, if a company has a 3% net profit margin, and suddenly starts earning 15% of its sales, that usually changes the company's value completely (like it is happening with NVTL, for example).

Ooopps, too long, hope it wasn't boring :)

David, can you look into GRB when you get a chance.

Thanks!!!

CTCH technical & fundamental analysis:



Didn't find this stock attractive.

Ok, I'm going to the chat now for half an hour before my kids arrive, if you have time meet me there for a quick talk, we're trying to put some live into the chat !

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 12:04:27 PM

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 18, 2007, 11:52:20 AM
David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

Ah Nick, your private message didn't let me sleep tonight, as I kept thinking "how did I sell that wonderful stock and didn't get back in before the run up?" It's really bad when one starts thinking about what he made wrong in the past, or what he could have made right. There are no "could haves", if I could have, I would have, it's that simple (or it should be).

About your question, I sold MCZ with a small profit, I believe, because at the time I got worried about the general market, and didn't got the nerve to get back into it when I turned bullish again. MCZ's trade helps me in my new methodology of only considering company specific information and ignoring macro or general market developments.

I'll cover MCZ when I have some time, I hope before the next push up. At first sight the chart and fundamentals are very attractive.

David,

MCZ, the bullishness just started. I would love to buy it if you going to call it today. ;)

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 12:15:39 PM

Quote from: Houlahan on May 18, 2007, 11:42:11 AM
David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

I don't screen or search for new stocks, the ones you guys (and girls) give me are more than enough to keep me busy. But I have a technical filter that I like to use when looking for stocks on fire, which is a Metastock filter ... are you interested?

After getting the stocks that are technically bullish I get lost looking at their fundamentals. Sometimes a few stocks pop up immediately as very interesting, it depends. Unfortunately the strategy is complex enough for me not to be able to explain it in a single post, but you have the 3 SOF Strategy document to read if you want to.

But basically, I like companies where the share count didn't grew much over the past few years, healthy balance sheet, that have strong revenue growth, high and stable net profit margin and finally that are trading below average valuation when compared to their industry. Usually this "status" doesn't last long, so the best chance is to find stocks with a recent relevant change in the fundamental trends ... fundamentals have to change for stock prices to change in a meaningful way, so I'm interested in changes in fundamentals.

For example, if a company has a 3% net profit margin, and suddenly starts earning 15% of its sales, that usually changes the company's value completely (like it is happening with NVTL, for example).

Ooopps, too long, hope it wasn't boring :)

David you are never boring!
Thank you, the information was helpful. I have read your PDF file the "3SOF Strategy" several times. I know you mentioned in the past a market cap and I can not remember or find it on the threads.
So what is your max. on the market cap?

By the way, I was never able to open the Excel file "fundamental study.xsl". I have a very old version of Excel.

Not sure if I what Metastock filter at this time. I think it is a little pricey. Thanks for asking.

QuoteDavid,

MCZ, the bullishness just started. I would love to buy it if you going to call it today.  ;)

Nah, not today Terliso, I never take intraday decisions or make intraday recommendations. Moreover I need to cover the stock in light of new valuation model. Maybe Monday, but I'm not sure, just after performing the analysis.

Going for the beach with the kids now, see you later 8)

Quote from: Houlahan on May 18, 2007, 01:00:58 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 12:15:39 PM

Quote from: Houlahan on May 18, 2007, 11:42:11 AM
David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

I don't screen or search for new stocks, the ones you guys (and girls) give me are more than enough to keep me busy. But I have a technical filter that I like to use when looking for stocks on fire, which is a Metastock filter ... are you interested?

After getting the stocks that are technically bullish I get lost looking at their fundamentals. Sometimes a few stocks pop up immediately as very interesting, it depends. Unfortunately the strategy is complex enough for me not to be able to explain it in a single post, but you have the 3 SOF Strategy document to read if you want to.

But basically, I like companies where the share count didn't grew much over the past few years, healthy balance sheet, that have strong revenue growth, high and stable net profit margin and finally that are trading below average valuation when compared to their industry. Usually this "status" doesn't last long, so the best chance is to find stocks with a recent relevant change in the fundamental trends ... fundamentals have to change for stock prices to change in a meaningful way, so I'm interested in changes in fundamentals.

For example, if a company has a 3% net profit margin, and suddenly starts earning 15% of its sales, that usually changes the company's value completely (like it is happening with NVTL, for example).

Ooopps, too long, hope it wasn't boring :)

David you are never boring!
Thank you, the information was helpful. I have read your PDF file the "3SOF Strategy" several times. I know you mentioned in the past a market cap and I can not remember or find it on the threads.
So what is your max. on the market cap?

By the way, I was never able to open the Excel file "fundamental study.xsl". I have a very old version of Excel.

Not sure if I what Metastock filter at this time. I think it is a little pricey. Thanks for asking.

Hi David,
I would be interested in taking a look at your metastock screen.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 11:15:18 AM

QuoteThey found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

What's the size of the world market in terms of silver coins, does anyone have a clue? I just wonder if a 500,000 finding won't depress worldwide prices for the coins, I mean, will they have the same value, they're not so rare after all ...

Yes, maybe in the old 3 SOF days, but now the stock wouldn't fit my valuation model (and it is below the opening price). Good luck if you own it LSUJay :)

(I'm going to close this thread now, will post CTCH's analysis in a moment)

I was able to get in at just above $7... it's still going up with some heavy afterhours trading.  I don't know if it's a bad move, but I'm only risking a small portion of my capital.

Quote from: LSUJay on May 18, 2007, 08:15:06 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 11:15:18 AM

QuoteThey found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

What's the size of the world market in terms of silver coins, does anyone have a clue? I just wonder if a 500,000 finding won't depress worldwide prices for the coins, I mean, will they have the same value, they're not so rare after all ...

Yes, maybe in the old 3 SOF days, but now the stock wouldn't fit my valuation model (and it is below the opening price). Good luck if you own it LSUJay :)

(I'm going to close this thread now, will post CTCH's analysis in a moment)

I was able to get in at just above $7... it's still going up with some heavy afterhours trading.  I don't know if it's a bad move, but I'm only risking a small portion of my capital.

LSU...$7 was a great entry on OMR.  UP to $8.60 after hours.  I'm sure you will at least have a good profit on Monday.  After that I don't know.

David...please take a look at ILC...I think you will like what you see once you dig into a bit. This is a ground-floor opportunity IMO. A few investors have already taken notice:


http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.htML?ilc


*** HIGHLIGHTS:

- RECENT PRESENTATION THAT DISCUSSES MOST OF THE KEY POINTS BELOW:

http://www.redchip.com/visibility/about.asp?symbol=ILC&page=presentationPHX

- PROFITABLE FOR 2007 (RECENT PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT)

- HUGE 1Q 2008 COMING UP. SIGNIFICANT DEFERRED REVENUE FROM 4Q 2007

- OVER 20% REVENUE GROWTH FOR 2008.....AND PROFITABLE

- NICHE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM $250M IN 2007 to $1.5 BILLION in 2012

- 2700 CUSTOMERS......98% RETENTION RATE.....HERE ARE SOME KEY CUSTOMERS:

Xerox, Qualcomm, Dow Chemical, Sony, JP Morgan Chase, WebMD, Citigroup, Aetna, US Navy, Charles SCHWAB, American Express

- 40% YEARLY COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATE

- GROWING, PROFITABLE SOFTWARE/TECHNOLOGY COMPANY TRADING AT P/S OF 1

- ILINC RECENTLY FEATURED ON BARRON'S ONLINE

http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1710371105647.html

Key Paragraphs:

How about another theme?

We call it the New Necessity: Collaboration. The ability to collaborate at a distance is becoming a necessity for big business. There has been a significant increase in telecommunicating just in the last five or six years, facilitated by technology. Think of it: We know of one micro-multinational with 25 employees who live across five time zones, four nations and two continents. This has facilitated the need for collaboration tools.

Such as?

Online video and teleconferencing capabilities and collaboration software. Cisco [CSCO] just bought WebEx, which provides Web and video conferencing. Citrix [CRXS] is another. Polycom [PLCM] plays in it. Optelecom [OPTC] and iLinc [ILC] are other companies. People are working more distantly from corporate offices, and there's a greater need for collaboration.

- COMPANY WEBSITE:

http://www.ilinc.com/



About iLinc Communications, Inc.

iLinc Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILC)  is a leading developer of Web conferencing software and audio conferencing solutions for highly secure and cost-effective online meetings, presentations, and training sessions. Our technology allows people in diverse locations to communicate and collaborate online while avoiding the expense, environmental damage, and productivity losses associated with travel. We make it better than being there. We do so by providing an award-winning, enterprise-wide suite of Web, audio, and video conferencing solutions that can be scaled up or down to meet the needs of any size organization. Offering the industry's most flexible pricing models, we give you the power to choose an installed, hosted, or hybrid solution -- whichever model delivers the highest ROI for your particular business. More information about the Phoenix-based Company may be found on the Web at www.iLinc.com.

Hi David.
pls take a look at TSEM.

it's a good company that made a big turnaround in the last couple of years.
i'd invested in TSEM in the past, i think that now the stock is looking to be pretty cheap.

i would like to hear your appinion about TSEM's future.

Thanks,
Avivwiz

I've studied HSOA more deeply, specifically its management's practices, and decided not to buy/recommend the stock, despite what seems to be terrific news. I already had taken into account heavy dilution, but didn't considered management has the bad habit of misleading investors with overly optimistic press releases that they use to sell their recently issued shares in bulk. For example, on Thursday they filed a form S-8 saying insiders would be selling 2,415,414 shares, and on Friday they claim to have been awarded $100 M in new contracts. This isn't the first time they do this, and in the past they gave guidance of $160 M in 2006 revenues and then delivered just $127 M.

So, I'll pass HSOA, good luck to anyone holding :)

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 01:06:20 PM

QuoteDavid,

MCZ, the bullishness just started. I would love to buy it if you going to call it today.  ;)

Nah, not today Terliso, I never take intraday decisions or make intraday recommendations. Moreover I need to cover the stock in light of new valuation model. Maybe Monday, but I'm not sure, just after performing the analysis.

Going for the beach with the kids now, see you later 8)

I've taken a more in depth look at MCZ, and besides wishing I had never sold it, I saw that Q1 2007 wasn't reported yet, and that is the weakest quarter from a seasonal standpoint. The news flow has been very positive and the technical picture is quite bullish as you can see on the chart below, but the company made just $0.05 EPS over the last 9 months, and it always loses money in Q1 ... say it will lose $0.02 per share, fiscal 2007 EPS will be $0.03 and the stock would then be trading with a trailing EPS of $0.99/$0.03 = 33, which is above the industry average of 21 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MCZ).

So, my idea is to wait some more time and possibly buy when the company reports the full year fiscal 2007 numbers, which will probably be seen as a disappointment by investors. We shall see, congrats if you've been holding MCZ :)

ICOC looks good would like to see a anaylsis on it  ;D.

Someone, I believe it was raspi, asked about XING. Over the following link is the reason why I sold it at $19.1 with a 27% profit: Reason for selling XING in 02-22-2007 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8742.msg89522#msg89522).

XING's market cap on a fully diluted basis is 36.63 million shares issued and outstanding times $13.55 = $496 M.

But the thing got worse with the QXM IPO, because that is nothing but further dilution, since QXM is currently a $563 M market cap company according to Market Watch (http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/qxm).

Remember when I said that XING would definitely be worth $1 B in the future? Ok, here you have it, XING and QXM are the same business as before, and their combined market value is $1.06 B. The stock price went down, but the combined market cap went up.

Perhaps I'm seeing something wrong, but the QXM IPO represented further dilution to me, and the Dutton EPS estimate doesn't seem reasonable at all after the recent developments.

I know several of you own XING, not just own, many people love this stock, so I'm sorry for being bearish on it. If XING wanted to get serious it should start filing forms 10 with the SEC, but management doesn't want to do that, because then they would have to disclose all XING's risks and potential dilution.

The chart also turned decisively bearish, with the stock breaking down below the 200 days SMA. I hope I'm wrong, good luck :)

Quote from: kpunarc on May 17, 2007, 11:14:50 AM
What do you think about  HAYN?

Technically the short, medium and long term trends are bullish:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37050;image)

In fundamental terms I'll study it in light of my new valuation model:

1) Dilution factor

I see that the share count rose 1.65 million recently, partially due to a public offering the company priced in March 19. The company used the proceeds to pay down debt. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 4.31, which is healthy, but inventories account for 68.5% of total current assets. I'm going to attach a 5% dilution factor to HAYN.

2) Revenue CAGR

Historical average annual revenue growth has been 30%. I'll insert 1.3 as the revenue CAGR estimate on the valuation model.

3) Estimated net profit margin

The average net profit margin over the last 4 quarters was 10.5%. I'll consider this as my net profit margin estimate

4) EPS multiple estimate

The Steel & Iron industry trades at 12.44 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=hayn). I believe it is reasonable to expect HAYN to trade at its industry average valuation over the medium term, so I'll use 12.44 as my EPS multiple estimate.

The valuation model results are:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37051;image)

Given the above estimates I expect HAYN to rise about 5% a year for the next three years, so the stock doesn't seem to be an interesting investment. But thanks for the suggestion, good luck if you own it !

Quote from: Jim897 on May 17, 2007, 11:15:19 AM
CAM

In technical terms CAM's chart is very bullish in all time frames. The stock had its ups and downs (like all stocks), but on a trend basis it just keeps going up.

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37059;image)

Let's make some fundamental estimates based on the recent trends:

1) Dilution factor

Almost nothing over the years. $848 M in cash and equivalents. No short term liquidity problems. I'll put 1.01 on the dilution factor estimate.

2) Revenue CAGR

Considering the revenue growth history since 2001 and the estimates analysts have for the future, I see 25% revenue CAGR going forward.

3) Net profit margin estimate

Net profit margin has been expanding, from 3.48% in 2003 to 9.3% in 2006 and 10.1% in Q1 2007. I'll use 10% as my net profit margin estimate.

4) EPS multiple estimate

As usual, here I tend to put the industry average, which in CAM's case is 15.77.

The valuation model results are:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37056;image)

According to my estimates CAM will rise about 13.3% a year over the next three years, on average, which is more than the general market long term average, but less than what is needed for me to consider the stock attractive. I guess this is in line with what one can expect from a $7.8 B market cap company. 

Hi David,
LAYN is once again in the spotlight..been added to the IBD top 100 list over the weekend.
I'm holding a position in LAYN..i think its a nice safe stock for the long run. 

They report earnings on 31st.


http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9240.0

NVEC had great earnings a couple of weeks ago and has been consolitating ever since.  Has 43% operating margins :o  and no debt.

David: "I've taken a more in depth look at MCZ, and besides wishing I had never sold it, I saw that Q1 2007 wasn't reported yet, and that is the weakest quarter from a seasonal standpoint. The news flow has been very positive and the technical picture is quite bullish as you can see on the chart below, but the company made just $0.05 EPS over the last 9 months, and it always loses money in Q1 ... say it will lose $0.02 per share, fiscal 2007 EPS will be $0.03 and the stock would then be trading with a trailing EPS of $0.99/$0.03 = 33, which is above the industry average of 21."



Not true Chief, MCZ only reported a loss in 4th quarter in 2006 (Q4 2005);

Q405: Loss 0.06
Q404: Gain 0.02
Q403: Gain 0.01

From Q405 report: "During the fourth quarter Mad Catz also recorded significantly higher year-over-year operating expenses fueled by higher sales and marketing expense related to substantial increases in co- op advertising. Operating expenses also reflect the launch and promotion of Real World Golf and one-time costs related to the Company's staffing reduction. General and administrative expenses also reflect one-time costs and increased legal and professional fees related to litigation and SOX compliance."

This cud partially explain the loss, along with transition to Xbox 360.

Anyway, if we have a positive surprise this quarter, MCZ cud see a very nice pop.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 21, 2007, 06:56:27 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 01:06:20 PM

QuoteDavid,

MCZ, the bullishness just started. I would love to buy it if you going to call it today.  ;)

Nah, not today Terliso, I never take intraday decisions or make intraday recommendations. Moreover I need to cover the stock in light of new valuation model. Maybe Monday, but I'm not sure, just after performing the analysis.

Going for the beach with the kids now, see you later 8)

I've taken a more in depth look at MCZ, and besides wishing I had never sold it, I saw that Q1 2007 wasn't reported yet, and that is the weakest quarter from a seasonal standpoint. The news flow has been very positive and the technical picture is quite bullish as you can see on the chart below, but the company made just $0.05 EPS over the last 9 months, and it always loses money in Q1 ... say it will lose $0.02 per share, fiscal 2007 EPS will be $0.03 and the stock would then be trading with a trailing EPS of $0.99/$0.03 = 33, which is above the industry average of 21 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MCZ).

So, my idea is to wait some more time and possibly buy when the company reports the full year fiscal 2007 numbers, which will probably be seen as a disappointment by investors. We shall see, congrats if you've been holding MCZ :)

Oopps, there we go. ;)

Hi David and all,
I stumbled upon another stock which i feel presents an interesting opportunity - Primedia Inc (PRM)


Here's my analysis, on why i think so:

What they do:
PRIMEDIA, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a media company in the United States. The company oConsumer Guides Segment (includes Apartment Guide , New Home Guide , Auto Guide , Rentclicks , AmericanHomeGuides.com , Single Unit Real Estate Rentals, and the DistribuTech distribution business)


They today announced selling the magazine business (Enthusiastic Media) for 1.2bn

Why i feel this is attractive:

1. The big negative this co. had was the huge debt of 1.32bn & related huge interest expense.
2. The remaining consumer guide business showed good growth over the past quarter

Q107: 80m rev
Q106: 81m rev

Operating Inc Q107: 7.0m
Operating Inc Q106: 5.4m

However, this segment lost 20m due to 29m int. expense.

With the debt reduction, i feel this would be profitable (this is my assumption).

The FY06 report tells the same story:
Revenues for the Consumer Guides segment were $324,521, up 2.3%, and Segment EBITDA was $81,274, up 8.5% compared to 2005.

Total EBITDA was 152m

Depriciation & amortization was 42m (Of this, 28m was depreciation. I need to see what the amortization of 10m was for, and will it continue). I also assume that with the sale, some property (and / or fixed assets) will be divested, which will result in lower depreciation too..

Anyway, as a result of dep/amor, Operating Income for FY06 was 107m

If you strip out the income from the magazine business, that leaves 10m of Operating

Income. This pretty much would be the Net Income, as i dont see recurring Other income (loss) which was due to loss on loans. Im assuming Interest expense will be ZERO, as the company would have cash remaining.


There's ofcourse room for upward surprise due to lower depreciation / amortization.


Bottom line, there is arbitrage opportunity in what the market is valuing this company due to the huge debt level and the potential the consumer report business has.

Thoughts / feedback welcome. Thanks,
Nick

PRM looks really bullish Nicknite, thanks for the heads up. ;)

"PRM looks really bullish Nicknite, thanks for the heads up."

Thanks Terliso, i need to understand the numbers a bit better..but i like what i see so far..

Hi David,

When you have the chance, can you see those ones: ACRI, ICOC, EGMI.OB and KDKN.OM?
Thanks!

Hi David, when you get the chance check out ABIX, a low market cap hurricane play. 

Hi David
Please just check URZ (Uranerz) an Uranium play
Thank You

QuoteHi David,
I would be interested in taking a look at your metastock screen.

Hi ravenquork, it's here on this post:

How to find Stocks on Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=505.0)

The next three requests for analysis I have on this thread are ILC, TSEM and ICOC (correct me if I'm wrong). I'll write some comments on these three stocks tomorrow morning and move on to the next three over the following day.

David,
I'd posted a short analysis on PRM..could you take a look at that for me please?
Thanks,
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 23, 2007, 12:24:48 PM
David,
I'd posted a short analysis on PRM..could you take a look at that for me please?
Thanks,
Nick

I will Nick, I just need to follow the order of the requests, in terms of the date that they were made. But I'll get to PRM, hope not too late.

PZZ has been promising a "company transforming" acquisition and
today they delivered. On Wednesday morning, Prospect Medical Holdings,
Inc. (amex: PZZ) announced a definitive agreement to acquire ProMed
Health Care for $41 million in cash and $7 million in PZZ stock. The
Boards of both companies have approved the transaction and the deal is
expected to close on June 1, 2007.

ProMed Health Care is comprised of two Independent Physician
Associations (IPAs), Pomona Valley Medical Group and Upland Medical
Group, as well as, ProMed Health Care Administrators, the management
services organization (MSO) that serves these IPAs. For fiscal year
ended September 30, 2006, ProMed generated revenues of approximately $90
million and operating income of approximately $9.0 million. The
acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to PZZ's earnings.

This acquisition is the largest in PZZ's history and creates an
organization with approximately 250,000 "covered lives" making the
combined companies the sixth-largest IPA in California. ProMed's high
concentration of Senior members is also a big deal for PZZ and increases
their total number of "Senior lives" under to almost 24,000.

As a part of the deal, PZZ has received $53 million in financing
commitments from a national lender comprised of a $48.0 million term
loan and a $5.0 million revolving credit facility. The term loan will be
used to fund the cash portion of the ProMed acquisition price and repay
the remaining balance outstanding on the company's existing credit
facility with GMAC Health Capital.

Great news for investors and it couldn't have come at a more opportune
time. PZZ's stock recently bounced off a $3.95 52-week low. This bounce
and today's announcement helped reverse a near $2.00 wash-out following
a couple of disappointing quarters. The "weak hands" may be gone and the
company is set to continue growing earnings despite some heavy
"re-investing" planned for this year. The integrated acquisition could
generate as much as $0.75 per diluted share in earnings over the next
twelve months, and at the current price, PZZ is trading at a mere
6-times diluted EPS. How cheap is that?

PZZ will now be reporting well over $200 million in annual revenue and
this transaction should help bring a lot more exposure to the company.
PZZ is cheap, at a bottom and should accelerate higher from here.

Hi David,

when you have few minutes, can you give a look inside IOM (Iomega Corp)?

Thanks, have a nice day.

A.

Hi David,

ORB. What is your take on this stock? I'm in it. Thanks in advance.

Hi David, could you cover uranium company CCJ - chart seems to be very bullish. Tanks

QuoteDavid...please take a look at ILC...I think you will like what you see once you dig into a bit. This is a ground-floor opportunity IMO.

Ok, let me take a brief look at ILC. First of all let me say I like the sector, it is software, it is internet and has to do with people starting to work from home like I do. Unfortunately this is a simplistic way to look at things, not always a good macro environment or idea means an attractive company to invest.

First of all, let me see the chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37224;image)

I see a double top at $0.81 followed by a sharp fall in point number 1. What happened on that day? The news was:

• iLinc Announces Preliminary Unaudited Fiscal Year 2007 and Fourth Quarter Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070503/lath051.html?.v=99)
PR Newswire (Thu, May 3)

15% revenue growth YoY for fiscal 2007 but just 3% growth in Q4 2007 when compared to Q4 2006. People didn't like that.

Then on point 2 the stock rebounded strongly, and the news on those days were:

• iLinc to Present at the RedChip Small-Cap Conference (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070518/laf008.html?.v=96)
PR Newswire (Fri, May 18)

Ok, it had to do with the conference you posted, which I've listened to.

Let me make a quick round for the fundamentals and apply my valuation model to ILC:

1) Dilution factor

ILC has an history of dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=ilc&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), the share count rose from 6.4 million shares in 1998 to 33.4 million now. Balance sheet is quite weak, since the current ratio is 1.14, there are $7 M in long term debt and about $1.5 M in cash and marketable securities.

The share count CAGR since 1998 was 20%. The dilution factor I'll put in my valuation model will be 1.2.

2) Revenue CAGR

Revenue in 2004 was $5 M, and the company expects $14.4 M for fiscal 2007. The revenue CAGR is 42.28%. However, revenues in Q4 grew just 3% from the year ago levels. Let's be optimistic and consider revenue growth going forward will be 25%. Revenue CAGR estimate is therefore 1.25.

3) Net profit margin estimate

The company lost money in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. Net income was slightly positive for the past three quarters. The company has a net profit margin of 2.4%. Let's be enthusiastic and consider the net profit margin will expand to 5% over the medium term.

4) EPS multiple estimate

Here, as usual, I'll use the industry average which in ILC's case (Application Software industry) is 33.17.

Computing ...

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37225;image)

Unless the company exceeds these estimates by a lot, the stock is not attractive, since the share price is estimated to be at $0.81 three years from now. It depends a lot on net profit margin, but because the company has this history of losses and dilution, coupled with a weak balance sheet, I would say that with the currently publicly available information an investment in ILC is too risky.

Can be wrong though, good luck :)

Quote from: avivwiz on May 21, 2007, 02:34:34 AM
Hi David.
pls take a look at TSEM.

it's a good company that made a big turnaround in the last couple of years.
i'd invested in TSEM in the past, i think that now the stock is looking to be pretty cheap.

i would like to hear your appinion about TSEM's future.

Thanks,
Avivwiz

Hi Avivwiz, I can only speculate about the future, hopefully with some basis. Let me see ... TSEM is a $215 M market cap. It keeps diluting shareholder's value (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=tsem&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), and that partially explains its long term decline:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37226;image)

The company lost money every year for the past 8 years and with $187 M in revenues in 2006 it still lost $86 M.

There's no basis for me to apply the valuation model to this company. It had to have a dramatic fundamental turnaround to start being attractive. With the current fundamental information I would avoid TSEM.

Can be wrong though, good luck if you own it :)

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 18, 2007, 11:52:20 AM
David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

34% return since i got into MCZ last week...

lets work on a double baby :)

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 21, 2007, 12:05:24 PM
Hi David,
LAYN is once again in the spotlight..been added to the IBD top 100 list over the weekend.
I'm holding a position in LAYN..i think its a nice safe stock for the long run. 

They report earnings on 31st.


http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9240.0

LAYN moved up to #66 on this weekend's list from #95 !!!

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 25, 2007, 08:51:19 PM

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 18, 2007, 11:52:20 AM
David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

34% return since i got into MCZ last week...

lets work on a double baby :)

Nice going Nicknite, I see this one can go up to $1.75 ;)

hi,
i got in this one at 108 and 124 . i can see an earnings run. they report on june 5th.
nice volume on friday afternoon before a long weekend,
also cfpc broke through the 180 barrier.
max

terliso,
the earnings on 5th June is key for MCZ..looks like it will settle in the 1.50s - 1.60s be4 that..
Nick

David,  ELP just upgraded today.  May want to take a look at it.

David,
Can you pls. take a look at ASIA?
Looks interesting..

They have cash per share of 3.5..so the market is valuing the business at less than 20 p/e. Seems a disparity for the revenue / earnings growth last qtr.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=asia

Appreciate your thoughts.
Nick

Hi guys, I'm sorry for not being able to keep up with the requests on this thread. I'm going to start making shorter video analysis and disregard those financial charts that take a lot of time to do.

I have 13 stocks to cover here, which are: ICOC, NVEC, PRM, ACRI, ABIX, URZ, PZZ, IOM, ORB, CCJ, MCZ, ELP and ASIA.

I'll try to cover them over the next few days, in the meantime let me close this thread to new posts until I catch up.

Anyway, starting today, we'll have one of those daily threads at www.stocksonvideo.com and I expect to cover some more new stocks there on your request.

Thanks :)

QuoteI have 13 stocks to cover here, which are: ICOC, NVEC, PRM, ACRI, ABIX, URZ, PZZ, IOM, ORB, CCJ, MCZ, ELP and ASIA.

I'm going to make these analysis at www.stocksonvideo.com. Obviously I already made ICOC, so NVEC is next.