3SOF

1. Introduction
1.1. Profile

With 19 locations in 10 countries, ICO Polymers (ICOC) produces custom polymer powders for rotational molding and other polymer related businesses, such as the textile, metal coating and masterbatch markets. ICO remains an industry leader in size reduction, compounding and other tolling services for plastic and non-plastic materials. ICO's Bayshore Industrial subsidiary produces specialty compounds, concentrates and additives primarily for the plastic film industry. Additional information about ICO, Inc. can be found on the Company's website at http://www.icopolymers.com. Contact: CFO - Jon C. Biro at 713-351-4100.

1.2. Initial Video Analysis




2. First reason: the chart is bullish

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37444;image)

We've just had a bullish breakout to a new 9 year high. No doubt the trend is positive.

3. Second reason: there's revenue and EPS growth

• ICO, Inc. Announces Record Second Quarter Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070502/aqw127.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Wed, May 2)

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37445;image)

Fiscal third quarter will probably be even better than fiscal 2nd quarter:

"Our management team did a great job rebounding from the difficult pricing environment in our first fiscal quarter," stated the Company's President and CEO, Mr. A. John Knapp, Jr. "Resin prices stabilized during the quarter and, in some markets, rose modestly. Of particular interest is the strength of our foreign operations, which provided 68% of our revenues during the quarter. Our operating results strengthened over the course of our fiscal second quarter, and we expect this momentum to carry into our third quarter."

4. Third reason: Valuation is low

ICOC's current market cap is $221 M and the company is expected to have revenues of $367.4 M in fiscal 2007 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC), therefore the Price to Sales Ratio is 0.6. The Synthetics industry average is 0.82 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ICOC).

I estimate ICOC will have EPS of $0.6 - $0.7 in fiscal 2007 (the company already had $0.34 EPS in the first two quarters). So, the forward Price to Earnings Ratio is 13. Again, the industry average earnings multiple is 20.27.

No doubt ICOC is trading at a discount.

5. Fourth reason: Redemption of preferred shares

You know how preferred shares eat the value of common shares, because they suck all the profits to their fat dividends. I believe their existence was the main reason why ICOC was undervalued in the first place, the stock couldn't go over $9.125:

QuoteDuring November 1993, the Company completed its initial offering of the $6.75 Convertible Exchangeable Preferred Stock (the "Preferred Stock"). The shares of Preferred Stock are evidenced by Depositary Shares, each representing 1/4 of a share of Preferred Stock. A total of 1,290,000 Depositary Shares were sold at a price of $25 per share. Each share of Preferred Stock is convertible into 10.96 shares of the Company's Common Stock (equivalent to 2.74 shares of Common Stock per Depositary Share) at a conversion price of $9.125 per common share subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events.

But the company made a big effort to build common shareholder's value and redeemed most of the preferred shares outstanding:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37446;image)

The practical side of all this is that ICOC is now free to go above $9 and beyond. No more reason to keep this stock undervalued.

6. Trading Plan

Buy ICOC, 6.66% of capital as always.

Looks good, will wait for a better entry point.

I bought ICOC last week after the breakout...you can wait for the pullback, or not. That's why I love TA  8)

Quote from: yukiii on May 31, 2007, 02:28:46 PM
Looks good, will wait for a better entry point.

Good luck yukiii, but with the way things are going, probably your "better entry point", or "buy after a pullback point" will be higher than the current price, so I would buy right away and forget about short term fluctuations, because, they're unpredictable.

Quote from: Dracull on May 31, 2007, 04:45:23 PM
I bought ICOC last week after the breakout...you can wait for the pullback, or not. That's why I love TA  8)

Nice buying point Dracull. I hope my fundamental analysis helps you strengthen your hands in ICOC.

The long term chart on my initial video analysis shows you how significant the current bullish breakout is, as the stock closed at a new 14 year high yesterday. Since 1993 everybody knew it was almost impossible for ICOC to move above $9.125 (because of that preferred shares issue), but not anymore.

Fundamentally, the optimal selling price is $17.65 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main), so I'll keep on holding ICOC.

ICOC had $0.20 EPS from continuing operations over the 2nd fiscal quarter of 2007 (ended March 31st, 2007):

«Income from continuing operations increased $2.5 million or 85% to $5.5 million, or $.20 per diluted share.»

If the next 3 quarters resemble this one, ICOC will earn $0.80 EPS over this 12 month period. The synthetics industry trades at 20.73 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ICOC).

So, if ICOC makes at least as well as this past quarter and trades at the industry average valuation (I don't see why not in both cases), it will then be a $0.80*20.73 = $16.58 stock.

My valuation model points to an optimal selling price of $17.65 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main).

I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC seems overbought, doesn't it? But fundamentally the stock is worth a lot more, so why should it go down? I guess that now that ICOC closed at a new 14 year high, the technical behavior of the stock changed completely, going from range bound to a persistent trend. Volume has been above average on this breakout process.

As we've seen over the last few updates, the stock is trading at a deep discount to its industry peers. I believe this discount (which isn't new), was due to the fact that there were a lot of convertible preferred shares outstanding at $9.125. Well, not anymore since the company bought back and retired most of those preferred shares. Therefore, the market is now able to correct the discount in the valuation, taking ICOC closer to its industry peers valuation, which is 20.73 times earnings.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

Another positive day for ICOC. I guess that people that waited to buy on a pullback may pick up a chair (or a bed) and wait more comfortably, because the bull trend persists.

But of course, there will be a pullback somewhere down the line, my point is the pullback will probably be to a higher point than my initial entry. I guess I was lucky on this one, because on others there was a correction right after I bought.

Just sit tight and hold ICOC.

"Another positive day for ICOC. I guess that people that waited to buy on a pullback may pick up a chair (or a bed) and wait more comfortably, because the bull trend persists.

But of course, there will be a pullback somewhere down the line, my point is the pullback will probably be to a higher point than my initial entry. I guess I was lucky on this one, because on others there was a correction right after I bought.

Just sit tight and hold ICOC. "

I couldn't resist the temptation to pull the trigger on some ICOC :)
Hopefully the 14 year high will be the new support.
I don't see why not because of the cheap valuation!
In at 8.64 :)

Someday ICOC would inevitably fall, but it didn't have to be a -4% day, did it?  ???

At least someone took advantage of the people selling ICOC to offset losses elsewhere:

QuoteI couldn't resist the temptation to pull the trigger on some ICOC :)
Hopefully the 14 year high will be the new support.
I don't see why not because of the cheap valuation!
In at 8.64  :)

Good move wxmang :)

I'll continue holding ICOC.

in at $8.63...yeah!

Apparently this was also a Motly Fool top pick back in October.

Quote from: ygtrdr on June 07, 2007, 11:43:00 AM
Apparently this was also a Motly Fool top pick back in October.

It's been on Richard Moroney's buy list also. One of the few showing great strength through the market downturn. I've been watching and wanting, and finally bought some today. Maybe more later....

luckly I bought some some weeks ago, and i just hedged SKK and SDS yesterday since i thought this correction would be a while.

Quote from: ygtrdr on June 07, 2007, 11:43:00 AM
Apparently this was also a Motly Fool top pick back in October.

Really? They experienced a 50% plus drawdown then. Anyway, making money now. I'm glad some of you guys are picking up ICOC on this short term decline, I don't think it will last long.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Unfortunately ICOC had a small correction in line with the general market. I'm glad it is almost done and the stock is set to breakout to new 14 year highs. I'll keep holding ICOC.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 10, 2007, 10:46:16 AM
Unfortunately ICOC had a small correction in line with the general market. I'm glad it is almost done and the stock is set to breakout to new 14 year highs. I'll keep holding ICOC.

Picked up some shares on friday, Good pick.........

ICOC now trading above $9. Nice.

Quote from: yukiii on June 10, 2007, 05:41:23 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 10, 2007, 10:46:16 AM
Unfortunately ICOC had a small correction in line with the general market. I'm glad it is almost done and the stock is set to breakout to new 14 year highs. I'll keep holding ICOC.

Picked up some shares on friday, Good pick.........

Well done yukiii, I wonder who sold you those shares so cheap ???

Quote from: BigSully1 on June 11, 2007, 03:04:45 PM
ICOC now trading above $9. Nice.

Yes, nice breakout with volume above average. But what I really want to see is the stock decisively closing above $9.12, that will show everybody that preferred shares are not a problem anymore.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Zacks made a few comments about ICOC:

«ICO Inc. (Nasdaq: ICOC) recently established a new 52-week high after reporting a record fiscal second quarter and currently trades just slightly below that level. Record quarterly revenues of $94.7 million increased by 19% on a year-over-year basis. The company noted that almost half of the revenue increase, or $7.4 million, was a result of an increase in sales and service volumes of 3%. Second-quarter earnings per share also grew on a year-over-year basis and topped the consensus estimate 14%. For the full year, ICOC satisfies the criteria of this Profit Track with a five-year growth track record of 100%.»

I believe that if they had mentioned the preferred shares issue the stock would have sky rocketed. This way, it pulled back again, giving more opportunities for bulls to load the truck with cheap shares.

ICIC at support $8.78 if that fails $8.15 is next

Quote from: yukiii on June 12, 2007, 10:51:21 PM
ICIC at support $8.78 if that fails $8.15 is next

Hi yukiii, the low of the day was $8.62 (breaking below your $8.78), but then the stock came back up and actually closed positive on the day. I wonder why you even try to guess these short term supports.

ICOC is having some troubling crossing over the all important $9.125 level. We know the company retired most of the preferred shares outstanding, but there are some still, and maybe that's what's putting the breaks on the stock's advance:

«On October 10, 2006, the Company's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to 1,160,000 out of 1,290,000 outstanding Depositary Shares subject to the amendments discussed above becoming effective. During the quarter ended December 31, 2006, the Company repurchased 1,095,853 Depositary Shares, or 84.9% of the authorized and outstanding Preferred Stock for $26.00 per Depositary Share, for total consideration of $28.5 million.»

So, there are still 1,290,000-1,095,853 = 194,147 depositary shares outstanding.

«During November 1993, the Company completed its initial offering of the $6.75 Convertible Exchangeable Preferred Stock (the "Preferred Stock"). The shares of Preferred Stock are evidenced by Depositary Shares, each representing 1/4 of a share of Preferred Stock. A total of 1,290,000 Depositary Shares were sold at a price of $25 per share. Each share of Preferred Stock is convertible into 10.96 shares of the Company's Common Stock (equivalent to 2.74 shares of Common Stock per Depositary Share) at a conversion price of $9.125 per common share subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events.»

So, there are about 194,147*2.74 = 531,963 possible new shares coming from the conversion of the preferred shares still outstanding, if the stock closes significantly above $9.125. This doesn't seem like much, considering there are already roughly 26 million shares outstanding:

«There were 25,998,614 shares of common stock without par value outstanding as of April 26, 2007»

Therefore I believe it is just a matter of time for ICOC to make a bullish breakout and close above the key $9.125 level. I'll keep holding the stock. 

Just incase someone wants to buy, I get emails all the time if they should buy here or there.
Many people wait for them to hit support before they buy. Today was a good day to buy.

Quote from: yukiii on June 14, 2007, 04:32:14 AM
Just incase someone wants to buy, I get emails all the time if they should buy here or there.
Many people wait for them to hit support before they buy. Today was a good day to buy.

Ok.

I believe that if/when ICOC closes above $9.125 it can rise 50% quite rapidly. So pay attention to that level. I'll keep holding ICOC.

Nice close 9.45  :)

Now it's extremely bullish  ;D

This's one of the best picks david

Well David you nailed it. Got rid of the last 10 years resistance  with
good volume
Applaud

Quote from: Garoh on June 15, 2007, 05:42:39 PM
Nice close 9.45  :)

Now it's extremely bullish  ;D

This's one of the best picks david

Quote from: jorgegr on June 15, 2007, 06:21:13 PM
Well David you nailed it. Got rid of the last 10 years resistance  with
good volume
Applaud

Thanks Garoh and jorgegr :)

I guess that now that ICOC closed at a new 14 year high, everybody will want to know why. And they'll see two major positive factors:

1) No more preferred shares conversion barrier at $9.125;
2) Forward P/E ratio is 11.8 (if we annualize the $0.20 EPS they had in calendar Q1 2007), and earnings more than doubled from the year ago levels:

«Similar to the year-over-year quarterly comparison, the revenue increase led to an increase in operating income of $2.6 million or 60%. Income from continuing operations increased $3.0 million or 116% and net income increased $4.5 million or 177%.»

The way is clear for ICOC to approach its all time high, set 17 years ago at $16.25.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 17, 2007, 06:15:17 AM
I guess that now that ICOC closed at a new 14 year high, everybody will want to know why. And they'll see two major positive factors:

David,
Where did you get the $8.63 as the 14 year high, I see $10 on my chart and it is also the all-time high. Just wondering. ;)

Quote from: Terliso on June 17, 2007, 04:56:54 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 17, 2007, 06:15:17 AM
I guess that now that ICOC closed at a new 14 year high, everybody will want to know why. And they'll see two major positive factors:

David,
Where did you get the $8.63 as the 14 year high, I see $10 on my chart and it is also the all-time high. Just wondering. ;)

Hi Terliso, what I meant was that above $8.63 ICOC was at a new 14 year high. Above 10 it will be at a new 17 year high. And here's my long term chart with the all time high at $16.25:

Another day, another rise for ICOC. Probably now everybody is seeing that preferred shares aren't a problem anymore, since the stock traded way above $9.125 for two days and it held, so there wasn't any massive conversion of preferred shares into common shares.

I wonder if we'll close the week above $10, which is the 17 year high ... probably we will, but that doesn't matter all that much for the long term outcome of this trade. Fundamentally the stock is worth around $16, I'll keep holding.

QuoteI wonder if we'll close the week above $10, which is the 17 year high ... probably we will, but that doesn't matter all that much for the long term outcome of this trade.

Closed at $10 yesterday, which is the 14 year high. Volume was the highest in more than four months. Eventually ICOC will close above $10 (probably this week) and that will open the way for a trip to the all time high set 17 years ago at $16.25.

Just hold and enjoy the ride.

I'll keep letting the profits run on ICOC.

ICOC's current consolidation phase is healthy, probably it won't take much longer for another white marubozu to unfold, given the attractiveness of the fundamentals. Keep letting the profits run.

ICOC positively surprised the market by 42.9% in its fiscal 2nd quarter 2007 earnings:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38395;image)

Yet analysts still didn't raise their EPS estimates for the full year (well, there's only one analyst covering the stock and probably he's got bigger fishes to fry).

The company made $0.2 EPS from continuing operations in calendar Q1 2007 ($0.26 EPS if we count with discontinued operations) and said the strong momentum it saw in international markets (which account for 68% of the company's sales) will probably continue throughout the year. So, I guess we're looking for at least $0.8 EPS for the full year 2007. ICOC's industry trades at 19.75 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ICOC), so, if ICOC trades at its industry average valuation, it will then be a $15.8 stock.

This is without considering potential growth from the last quarter's numbers.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Taking profits todays in ICOC, bought some more IEAM

ICOC closed above $10 for the first time since 1990. The way is clear for further appreciation. I'll continue holding ICOC.

Quote from: David Randolph on June 26, 2007, 05:56:24 AM
ICOC closed above $10 for the first time since 1990. The way is clear for further appreciation. I'll continue holding ICOC.

David this is the best stock of your main portfolio ...
Everything is great with this one . Chart looks one of the best busllish charts I ever seen . I sold SILC yestreday at the open and bought more ICOC at 9.99  .. that's because I think it's going to $16 as far as it can  ;D
acually I sold Silc for a loss but I'm happy I'm still alive  :)

Would SGTL it looks extremely nice for at least 50% profits ..

Thanks for your comments on ICOC Garoh :)

The stock suffered from the "I got take a profit where I have it to compensate for losses elsewhere" syndrome. Technically the stock hit an ascending support yesterday, and fundamentally nothing changes. A couple of weeks from now ICOC will be back above $10 or possibly more.

I thought yesterday's sell off was quite stupid, but didn't think the stock would recover so quickly :o

Up 6.73% today, to a new 17 year closing high.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Quote from: Garoh on June 26, 2007, 07:34:00 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 26, 2007, 05:56:24 AM
ICOC closed above $10 for the first time since 1990. The way is clear for further appreciation. I'll continue holding ICOC.

David this is the best stock of your main portfolio ...
Everything is great with this one . Chart looks one of the best busllish charts I ever seen . I sold SILC yestreday at the open and bought more ICOC at 9.99  .. that's because I think it's going to $16 as far as it can  ;D
acually I sold Silc for a loss but I'm happy I'm still alive  :)

Would SGTL it looks extremely nice for at least 50% profits ..

David as I said yesterday it's one of the best stocks you have on your main and yestreday's action was shaking weak hands ....
I added more at 9.45 yesterday  :)

david look at this stock SGTL it's very nice for a 50% quick profit ...

Upsidestocks (Richard Moroney) upgraded to Best Buy  Tuesday.

Quote from: BigSully1 on June 28, 2007, 11:02:08 AM
Upsidestocks (Richard Moroney) upgraded to Best Buy  Tuesday.

I guess i should add that he also put JAKK on the buy list  :o

Quote from: BigSully1 on June 28, 2007, 12:40:07 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on June 28, 2007, 11:02:08 AM
Upsidestocks (Richard Moroney) upgraded to Best Buy  Tuesday.

I guess i should add that he also put JAKK on the buy list  :o

Hehe, he just subscribed to 3 Stocks Premium ;D

Quote from: Garoh on June 27, 2007, 06:53:53 PM

Quote from: Garoh on June 26, 2007, 07:34:00 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 26, 2007, 05:56:24 AM
ICOC closed above $10 for the first time since 1990. The way is clear for further appreciation. I'll continue holding ICOC.

David this is the best stock of your main portfolio ...
Everything is great with this one . Chart looks one of the best busllish charts I ever seen . I sold SILC yestreday at the open and bought more ICOC at 9.99  .. that's because I think it's going to $16 as far as it can  ;D
acually I sold Silc for a loss but I'm happy I'm still alive  :)

Would SGTL it looks extremely nice for at least 50% profits ..

David as I said yesterday it's one of the best stocks you have on your main and yestreday's action was shaking weak hands ....
I added more at 9.45 yesterday  :)

david look at this stock SGTL it's very nice for a 50% quick profit ...

What is it you see in SGTL that I don't see at all?

Quote from: BigSully1 on June 28, 2007, 02:30:04 PM

Quote from: Garoh on June 27, 2007, 06:53:53 PM

Quote from: Garoh on June 26, 2007, 07:34:00 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on June 26, 2007, 05:56:24 AM
ICOC closed above $10 for the first time since 1990. The way is clear for further appreciation. I'll continue holding ICOC.

David this is the best stock of your main portfolio ...
Everything is great with this one . Chart looks one of the best busllish charts I ever seen . I sold SILC yestreday at the open and bought more ICOC at 9.99  .. that's because I think it's going to $16 as far as it can  ;D
acually I sold Silc for a loss but I'm happy I'm still alive  :)

Would SGTL it looks extremely nice for at least 50% profits ..

David as I said yesterday it's one of the best stocks you have on your main and yestreday's action was shaking weak hands ....
I added more at 9.45 yesterday  :)

david look at this stock SGTL it's very nice for a 50% quick profit ...

What is it you see in SGTL that I don't see at all?

Good question BigSully1   ;D

Well If you don't see anything others can ..
First , take a look at the weekly chart for 3 years and see how the stock is doing ..
second, take a look at the daily chart for 4 months and see what the chart tells you about reaching a bottom ..
This stock can shoot 50% easily ... But if it make a new low below 2.87 and close below 2.90 then it'll be so bad ..

I'm waiting for a long white candle could happen soon  ;)

SGTL's chart is very bearish Garoh. Moreover once somebody sent me a very comprehensive article defending the company will probably face bankruptcy. Since then I always had this idea that I should avoid that stock. But I didn't made any deep study on it ...

QuoteBut if it make a new low below 2.87 and close below 2.90 then it'll be so bad ..

Well, it closed at $2.73 on Tuesday, so that pretty much ends the question.

As for ICOC, the stock is trading at roughly 13.5 times 2007 estimated EPS (extrapolating the $0.20 it earned in Q1 2007 for the full year, there's no seasonality). It should be trading at 20 times earnings instead, that is, about $16 a share.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

I should find more like ICOC, since I'm already 33.7% ahead on the stock and it was so obvious since the beginning. That preferred shares issue really made the trick, didn't it?

It really pays to read the 10-Q and 10-K forms filed with the SEC. But it sure gives a lot of work ... not a problem to me, I would work to the moon for a superior strategy, or for an hedge. 

My valuation model says ICOC's optimal exit price is $17.53 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main), so I'll comfortably let the profits run.

Quote from: David Randolph on July 05, 2007, 06:55:50 PM
I should find more like ICOC, since I'm already 33.7% ahead on the stock and it was so obvious since the beginning. That preferred shares issue really made the trick, didn't it?

It really pays to read the 10-Q and 10-K forms filed with the SEC. But it sure gives a lot of work ... not a problem to me, I would work to the moon for a superior strategy, or for an hedge. 

My valuation model says ICOC's optimal exit price is $17.53 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main), so I'll comfortably let the profits run.

David I told you this is the best one you have right now ...  I think you should look at chart first , it will give you a clear view about the stock direction for fast return stocks such as ICOC  :)

Maybe SNCR will be a good one , take a look  ...

this definitely appears to be a good pick!!!  My only mistake is buying a few hundred shares.  I really need to adopt your 6% on every stock.   I just randomly bought the amount of shares I think is right.... could be 1% or 10%.  Very bad money management... I know, I know. ;)

Zacks likes this one  ;)

Zacks Recent Price Strength Strategy highlights: Amtrust Financial Services, ICO, Inc., Logility and SMTC Corp.

Jul 6, 2007 06:00:09 (ET)


CHICAGO, Jul 06, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- This stock picking strategy looks for companies trading in the upper range of their 52-week highs that have attractive fundamental attributes. This strategy proves that "trend is your friend" with a +29% return versus +16.7% for the S&P 500 in 2006. This screen is called the Recent Price Strength Profit Track strategy. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI, Trade ), ICO, Inc. (ICOC, Trade ), Logility, Inc. (LGTY, Trade ) and SMTC Corp. (SMTX, Trade ). View the entire list of stocks for the Recent Price Strength Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1863

Here are details about four companies currently identified by the Recent Price Strength Profit Track:

Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI, Trade ), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, recently reached a new 52-week high and has seen its share price increase 19% over the past four weeks. In late June, the company announced that it entered an agreement to acquire Associated Industries Insurance Services, Inc., a Florida-based workers' compensation managing general agency, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Associated Industries Insurance Company, Inc., a Florida workers' compensation insurer, for approximately $41.2 million. In early June, AFSI declared a quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share, reflecting a dividend increase of 25%.

ICO, Inc. (ICOC, Trade ) just hit a new 52-week high. The company experienced a share price increase of 25% during the past four weeks. In early May, ICOC delivered fiscal second-quarter earnings that were ahead of the consensus estimate by 14% and increased on a year-over-year basis. The company experienced record quarterly revenues of $94.7 million, an improvement of 19% from the previous year.  
Logility, Inc. (LGTY, Trade ) is hovering right around its 52-week high, which was set in late June shortly after the company posted fiscal fourth-quarter results that included a record total revenues amount of $12.7 million. The result was 26% ahead of last year's revenues. Quarterly earnings per share of 14 cents surpassed the year-prior 12 cents. LGTY has seen its share price increase by 15% over the past four weeks.

SMTC Corp. (SMTX, Trade ) has been recently achieving 52-week highs and currently trades slightly below that level. The share price of SMTX grew by 40% over the past four weeks, which is the highest four-week growth record currently under this Profit Track. In mid-May, the company reported first-quarter results, stating that its quarterly performance reflects continuing solid execution of its growth strategy premised on improving its customers' cost competitiveness by providing high quality manufacturing and outstanding service responsiveness.

QuoteDavid I told you this is the best one you have right now ...  I think you should look at chart first , it will give you a clear view about the stock direction for fast return stocks such as ICOC   :)

I'm not interested in fast returns, but in a 30% plus long term average return for the Main Portfolio. After 11 years in the stock market and hundreds if not thousands of analysis I firmly believe the chart doesn't tell you what will happen next. I also need scalability in my strategy.

QuoteMaybe SNCR will be a good one , take a look  ...

SNCR ... well, the chart certainly looks bullish, maybe even a parabolic rise:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38744;image)

Market cap is $1.1 B for $76 M in revenue over the past four quarters, so the price to sales ratio is 14.5. EPS over the past four quarters was $0.39, so the Price to Earnings Ratio is 87.3.

I don't know if the stock will be up or not, but it sure looks insanely overvalued. I wouldn't touch it, because if it starts going down, that is, without bullish momentum, the stock will fall dramatically. It would be a long way from overvalued to undervalued.

But you're doing quite well with your averaging up in ICOC, congrats :)

Quote from: DragonAMG on July 05, 2007, 10:43:41 PM
this definitely appears to be a good pick!!!  My only mistake is buying a few hundred shares.  I really need to adopt your 6% on every stock.   I just randomly bought the amount of shares I think is right.... could be 1% or 10%.  Very bad money management... I know, I know. ;)

Hi DragonAMG, I think the 6.6% rule, or for example, 10% rule if you're about to own 10 different stocks is a simple and effective way of controlling risk. As a comparison between the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and the Main Portfolio shows it is very hard to know which stocks will perform the best.

Nothing new on ICOC, I'll keep holding the stock.

ICOC's uptrend continues, despite some profit taking by the end of the session. Fundamental value is at least $16, no reason to take profits this low, even though it will be a bumpy road.

Resin prices have the greatest impact on ICOC's revenues and earnings:

«Demand for the Company's products and services tends to be driven by overall economic factors and, particularly, consumer spending. The trend of applicable resin prices also impacts customer demand. As resin prices are falling, customers tend to reduce their inventories and, therefore, reduce their need for the Company's products and services as customers choose to purchase resin on a just-in-time basis rather than building large levels of inventory. Conversely, as resin prices are rising, customers often increase their inventories and accelerate their purchases of products and services from the Company to help lower their raw material costs. Additionally, demand for the Company's products and services tends to be seasonal, with customer demand historically being weakest during the Company's first fiscal quarter due to the holiday season. The Company's fourth fiscal quarter also tends to be weaker compared to the Company's second and third fiscal quarters, in terms of customer demand, due to vacation periods in the Company's European markets. However, demand during the Company's fourth fiscal quarter of 2006 and 2005 was the strongest demand of all quarters within fiscal years 2006 and 2005 due, in part, to rising resin prices.»

It took me some time, but I found the market for resin at the Plastics Exchange (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/default.aspx)  :)

I still need to figure out what this all means, but it appears resin prices have been strong.

Just one note to seasonality: this quarter (calendar Q2 is fiscal Q3 for ICOC) should be strong, but the next one will be affected by seasonality.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

ICOC said the following in its Q1 2007 10-Q:

«The Company's revenues and profitability are impacted by the change in resin prices. The Company uses various resins (primarily polyethylene) to make its products. As the price of resin increases or decreases, market prices for the Company's products will generally also increase or decrease. This will typically lead to higher or lower average selling prices and will impact the Company's gross profit and gross margin. The impact on gross profit is due to a lag in matching the change in raw material cost of goods sold and the change in product sales prices.»

Even though resin is a cost for ICOC, it appears that the more it rises, the better for ICOC's short to medium term financial performance.

Going to the Plastics Exchange (http://www.theplasticsexchange.com/) (beautiful) website, particularly to the polyethylene market summary (http://www.theplasticsexchange.com/Research/WeeklyReview.aspx#Polyethylene), we see that its price, although below its mid 2006 highs, was significantly higher in Q2 2007 when compared to Q1 2007:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38853;image)

It looks like Q2 2007 is set to be very strong for ICOC, since it is also a seasonally strong quarter. We'll see how strong and judge then. In the meantime, relax and keep holding ICOC.

David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 10:00:06 PM
David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

Good question Garoh :)

Unfortunately I don't have a good answer. I've searched on ICOC's 10-Q's and didn't find anything relative to ICOCZ. You know what? I think ICOCZ only has a relation to ICOC because the ticker symbols resemble each other. I guess ICOCZ is an illiquid ADS from a foreign company, a company that doesn't have anything to do with ICOC (except the similar ticker symbol - this is why the financial websites link ICOCZ to ICOC). Check ICOCZ's chart:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38911;image)

Resin prices continue to push higher:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38912;image)

Second quarter earnings will probably be above expectations. Analysts are calling for $0.16 EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC).

I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC's earnings will be published in August 8th:

• Webcast Alert: ICO, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2007 Earnings Webcast (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070713/aqf021.html?.v=14)
PR Newswire (Fri 7:00am)

I expect this quarter's earnings to be quite strong, because of seasonality, higher resin prices and what the CEO said in the Q1 earnings release:

«"Our operating results strengthened over the course of our fiscal second quarter, and we expect this momentum to carry into our third quarter," said company President and Chief Executive Officer A. John Knapp Jr.»

ICOC made $0.20 EPS in calendar Q1 2007 and analysts are expecting just $0.16 for the calendar 2nd quarter. I guess everything is set for a nice earnings surprise in August 8th.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

ICOC had a pretty nasty sell off yesterday, with the stock going down 5.4% on the day. Like the sell off that happened a couple of weeks ago. Yet the stock is trending higher, as fundamentals are supportive.

From what I've been seeing about the factors that influence ICOC's fundamentals, I believe fiscal 3rd quarter earnings will be quite strong. Results will be published in August 8th and I'm not thinking of leaving the stock before that.

We're still three weeks away from ICOC's earnings, so there's plenty of time for the stock to make new highs before August 8th.

The scenario I'm making is ICOC pushing to new highs and opening with a gap up on what I expect to be good news. That's where I'll probably take profits.

For now I'll keep on holding ICOC.

This is a good strategy as many of us have commented here, including David's stance in the "Strategy Disclosed" thread. We should sell shares of companies like ICOC and NVTL when they have massive earnings run-up, then wait on the sidelines, as their fundamentals will hopefully still be good and then, for an opportune moment to get back in at a discounted price, if that happens. This way, we have a profit to enjoy and possibly offset any other mishaps, like TZOO, for instance.

Quote from: berloga on July 18, 2007, 09:26:42 AM
This is a good strategy as many of us have commented here, including David's stance in the "Strategy Disclosed" thread. We should sell shares of companies like ICOC and NVTL when they have massive earnings run-up, then wait on the sidelines, as their fundamentals will hopefully still be good and then, for an opportune moment to get back in at a discounted price, if that happens. This way, we have a profit to enjoy and possibly offset any other mishaps, like TZOO, for instance.

Yes, mainly because of the risk of selling the stock on a technical breakdown due to weak hands, like it happened with SILC :'(

Nothing new for ICOC, ascending support standing at $10.5. I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC is starting to come back, rising 4.1% yesterday. Polyethylene prices, which is one of the main factors influencing ICOC's earnings, continue to climb:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39128;image)

2nd quarter earnings will be out on August 8th and I believe they'll be quite positive (also influenced by seasonality, the second quarter is historically the strongest).

I'm still not sure if I'll take profits on the news or not, it depends on the results and future guidance.

For now I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC has some slides over the following form 6-K (http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5059800), which don't tell us much about the future.

ICOC's earnings will be released in August 8th and I expect the company to beat expectations. It would be nice to have the stock trading at a new high before the earnings news, we'll see what happens.

ICOC seems to be about to make a bullish breakout to new highs above $12.08. Resin prices keep pushing higher, as you can see at the Plastics Exchange website (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/) and that makes me doubtful if I should take profits on the next quarter's good news (hopefully) or keep holding before this quarter. I guess it will depend on the news itself.

Between now and the earnings release in August 8th I'll just hold and wait.

I reviewed the four reasons I gave in ICOC's initial recommendation (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9701.msg99596#msg99596) and they're all still valid today, so I'll keep on holding ICOC.

Interestingly enough, resin prices rose yesterday (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/), even while global equity markets were going down sharply. This positively affects ICOC.

ICOC was one of the few bright spots in the Main Portfolio yesterday. Resin prices are strongly bullish now (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/) and I'm starting to consider holding ICOC beyond the 2nd quarter earnings results, which I expect to be good.

I expect a bullish breakout in ICOC anytime soon.

Quote from: David Randolph on July 26, 2007, 06:09:24 AM
ICOC was one of the few bright spots in the Main Portfolio yesterday. Resin prices are strongly bullish now (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/) and I'm starting to consider holding ICOC beyond the 2nd quarter earnings results, which I expect to be good.

I expect a bullish breakout in ICOC anytime soon.

David No Doubt breakout is coming and 13.70  in the pocket very soon  ;D

150,000 shares from one seller ....Why ?  >:(

Quote from: Garoh on July 26, 2007, 11:29:58 AM
150,000 shares from one seller ....Why ?  >:(

The man thought: "gee, I'm losing so much over the past few days with the market down a lot, let me see, where do I have some profits to take? ICOC, just sell it".

We could say: "but watch out man, look at the fundamental trends, look at the positive earnings surprise that will probably be out this quarter and next" that he would say "I don't care, just get me out of the market".

ICOC came off to touch the ascending 50 days SMA support. Volume was spectacular. A terrific buying opportunity in my view. I'll keep holding ICOC, the stock will probably be above $12 in a couple of weeks.

Wow, resin prices had a big jump on Friday, check it out here: http://www.plasticsexchange.com/

And ignorants sold ICOC ... I feel like buying more ... but I can't, money management rules don't let me do it.

The stock is standing right at the 50 days SMA support and fundamentals are improving by the day. I say it won't take more than a couple of weeks for ICOC to be at a new high.

ICOC is definitely set to rise, I expect the stock to be between $11 and $12 before earnings on August 8th.

ICOC rose a bit, but it's still not enough to reflect the company's value, especially as resin prices keep rising: http://www.plasticsexchange.com/

I wonder if resin is correlated with the oil price? Nah, it doesn't make much sense ... what are the drivers of the resin price? Probably the World's pace of economic growth.

I'll continue holding ICOC.

Quote

I wonder if resin is correlated with the oil price? Nah, it doesn't make much sense ... what are the drivers of the resin price? Probably the World's pace of economic growth.

I found this on 2 different sites ...

Although the U.S. plastics industry has stabilized and capacity utilization is running at a healthy clip, high resin prices — tied to natural gas and oil — have pinched profits at companies and put up a yellow light of caution for customers looking to buy new machines.

and

The price of copper has doubled in less than two years, and the price of plastic resin is correlated to the rising price of crude oil.

Quote from: Se7en on July 31, 2007, 07:31:22 PM

Quote

I wonder if resin is correlated with the oil price? Nah, it doesn't make much sense ... what are the drivers of the resin price? Probably the World's pace of economic growth.

I found this on 2 different sites ...

Although the U.S. plastics industry has stabilized and capacity utilization is running at a healthy clip, high resin prices — tied to natural gas and oil — have pinched profits at companies and put up a yellow light of caution for customers looking to buy new machines.

and

The price of copper has doubled in less than two years, and the price of plastic resin is correlated to the rising price of crude oil.

Thanks a lot for the useful information Se7en (applaud) :)

ICOC had a nice yesterday, rising 3.8% on volume above average. As I've been saying, I expect the stock to be between $11 and $12 before earnings and then to breakout on the upside.

Nothing happened yesterday on ICOC.

Webcast Alert: ICO, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2007 Earnings Webcast
Friday August 3, 7:00 am ET

HOUSTON, Aug. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ICO, Inc. (Nasdaq: ICOC - News) announces the following Webcast:

     What:     Third Quarter Fiscal 2007 Earnings

     When:     August 8, 2007 at 10:00 AM Central/11:00 AM Eastern

     Where:    http://www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=41109

     How:      Live over the Internet -- Simply log on to the web at the
               address above.

     Contact:  Jon C. Biro of ICO, Inc. 713.351.4100

Investors may participate in the conference call by dialing 847-413-3235, passcode 18491471


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070803/aqf001.html?.v=19 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070803/aqf001.html?.v=19)

This one must close above $9.50 or it will be in a serious trouble  ;D

The market is making everyone confused !!

Quote from: Garoh on July 26, 2007, 11:29:58 AM
150,000 shares from one seller ....Why ?  >:(

I think this sale changed the trend which was made just a few days before tomorrow's conference. The chart was badly damaged additionally by the market's trend.
I do hope it closes above 9.50 and wish those still holding thru earnings good luck.

Quote from: jorgegr on August 06, 2007, 01:32:53 PM

Quote from: Garoh on July 26, 2007, 11:29:58 AM
150,000 shares from one seller ....Why ?  >:(

I think this sale changed the trend which was made just a few days before tomorrow's conference. The chart was badly damaged additionally by the market's trend.
I do hope it closes above 9.50 and wish those still holding thru earnings good luck.

closing below 9.50 today will make me kick it out of my portfolio  >:(

Hey, Garoh

She does'nt want to let you go, maybe will close around 9.50 after all  >:D

Quote from: jorgegr on August 06, 2007, 03:14:48 PM
Hey, Garoh

She does'nt want to let you go, maybe will close around 9.50 after all  >:D

jorgegr maybe she fell in love with me  ;D

But there's someone wants her to leave by force ..... he's offering 14000 shares at 9.50  >:(

ICOC will release 3rd quarter earnings before tomorrow's open, so today is the last day to sell before earnings. I expect results to be very strong and since most people were already shaken out of the stock, it will probably have a nice pop on the news, even if it's just short covering.

So I'll hold ICOC through earnings.

Third quarter results

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070807/latu237.html?.v=1

It looks good. David,can you interpret the news about the dividend? Thanx.

Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 10:00:06 PM
David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

David Do you remember this ?
Do you think it had any effect on the share price ??
Because I see a week after the paying date which July 2 , the stock started to turn from bullish to bearish  ???

Quote from: soxguy on August 07, 2007, 10:36:04 PM
It looks good. David,can you interpret the news about the dividend? Thanx.

Sure. The dividend part is:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39510;image)

No surprises here. Previously there were 1,290,000 Depositary Shares, now there are 194,147 Depositary Shares. The company still has to pay 194,147*$6.33 = $1,228,921 of dividends in arrears, which is no big deal for a $248 M market cap company. I guess the company's intention of declaring dividends or buying back shares in the future may help.

As for the overall results, revenues were much stronger than expected, since analysts covering the stock were expecting revenue for the June quarter to be $94.35 M (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC) and actual revenue number was $113.38 M.

EPS was also better than expected, at $0.20, while analysts were expecting $0.16.

EPS in this quarter was lower than in the previous quarter because of a much higher tax rate (but that was to be expected) and because in the previous quarter discontinued operations contributed with $0.05 EPS per diluted share to the $0.25 EPS number.

ICOC's numbers were better than what I'm expecting in the valuation model. I acknowledge the seasonally strong part of the year is behind us, but all market moving investors know about seasonality so there's nothing to profit from it.

Overall I'm pleased with the results which were better than what analysts expected and better than my own projections (I'll compare every number with what I have in my valuation model over the upcoming update).

I expect ICOC to start moving higher again and eventually in 2007 breakout to new highs above $12, on its was to $16 or more. I'll hold ICOC.

Aren't you happy, Garoh, that you haven't sold?!  ;) I hope in time we'll be able to say the same about NVTL.

What happened just before the close? Was up to 11.50 just before.

Looks like someone tried to sell 60,000 shares the last minute on a low float. Should go back up tomorrow.

Quote from: berloga on August 08, 2007, 04:10:07 PM
Looks like someone tried to sell 60,000 shares the last minute on a low float. Should go back up tomorrow.

Was the correct closing price 10.17? Or is my data feed screwy?

Mine reads $10.46 as a closing price.

Quote from: berloga on August 08, 2007, 03:50:44 PM
Aren't you happy, Garoh, that you haven't sold?!  ;) I hope in time we'll be able to say the same about NVTL.

berloga No I didn't sell  :)

I said if it close below 9.50 I would sell it and the next day the trading was interesting and decided to keep it for the earning release  ;D
The closing price is 10.96 and ... but the lasy minute was weird it jumped to 11.48 but tanked to less than 10.50  :o

I don't own this one but I wish I did.
on Dow Theory this one has an overall score of 91
so I'd say this one is pretty solid to hold for the long term.

Quote from: Garoh on August 08, 2007, 07:19:56 AM

Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 10:00:06 PM
David

What's this ??

Thursday , July 05, 2007 15:30ET

According to the NASDAQ Dividend List, ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOCZ) are expected to go ex-dividend on July 06, 2007. This $0.421875 cash dividend was originally declared on May 02, 2007.

  DECL-DATE          X-DATE        REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
05/02/2007      07/06/2007      06/22/2007      07/02/2007

AMOUNT:    $0.421875 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: N/A
CHANGE:    N/A

David Do you remember this ?
Do you think it had any effect on the share price ??
Because I see a week after the paying date which July 2 , the stock started to turn from bullish to bearish  ???

Yeah, I guess that ICOCZ stuff are the preferred shares which can be traded. There are 194,147 preferred shares outstanding.

I've listened to the conference call, and management is very enthusiastic about the current business conditions and the future. Here are a few highlights:

- Growth in Australasian volumes was 100% from the year ago levels and up 35% from the prior quarter;
- Gross margin was 18.1%, but management believes there's ample opportunity for improvement here. The CEO said he is a "margin fanatic";
- The $1.2 M payment of the preferred dividends won't have an impact on EPS, just in the balance sheet, because those dividends were already accounted for in the past.
- On a question about seasonality, which was very deep in 2006 and made the stock fall 36% from top to bottom in the 2nd half of 2006, management said it is a "one month issue", it's just that most Europeans take vacations in August and business in Europe slows dramatically. Anyway, I think the 2006 2nd half reduction in EPS had more to do with the Resin prices falling 30% over that period than the normal European seasonality. That's not happening this time, as  resin prices have been steadily moving higher.

Generally I enjoyed the conference call.

Now let's compare the actual results with my valuation model estimates (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main):

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39567;image)

- I had a 2% dilution factor. This quarter the share count increased from 25,998,614 to 26,238,904, that is, 0.92%. This gives me about 4% dilution factor per year, so I'll increase my estimate to 1.04.

- I had revenue CAGR of 15%. Revenue growth from the 2006 fiscal 3rd quarter was 38%. I'm going to increase my revenue CAGR estimate to 25%.

- I have 7% as my final net profit margin estimate. In this quarter net profit margin was 4.88%. I'm going to maintain my 7% estimate because the CEO said there's ample room for improvement in gross margin, so I'll expect some margin expansion over the years.

- I had an EPS multiple estimate of 20.46. But lately the general market was off a lot and the Synthetics industry is now being valued at 18.14 times earnings. I'll adjust this estimate.

After all these changes I get the following results:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39568;image)

The stock is a bit more attractive now. I enjoy the fact that ICOC is a global business which derives 76% of its sales from outside of the United States.

Management is doing a great job, I'll continue holding ICOC for the long term.

I believe ICOC sells off because violent market jitters push investors to collect profit on their winning holdings. Perhaps that's why NVTL also pulls back sharply. JMHO.

Man, sometimes these investors just drive you crazy with the big sell off. Why can't everyone have the long term perspective on such an amazing stock and an amazing business model? This drop kinda hurt a bit.  :'(

Quote from: berloga on August 09, 2007, 09:46:20 AM
I believe ICOC sells off because violent market jitters push investors to collect profit on their winning holdings. Perhaps that's why NVTL also pulls back sharply. JMHO.

Yes, earnings and prospects are great, however there were too many short term profits to take to offset losses elsewhere. Technically there was a gap to close just beneath, which was closed yesterday.

Let's see what the next few days bring, I'll keep holding ICOC, even though I recognize the damn chart may speak louder over the short term.

Well closing below 9.50 again is not a good thing at all  :(

I'm out yesterday at 10.45
will wait for good signs even though I buy it higher ..

Quote from: Garoh on August 10, 2007, 07:34:51 AM
Well closing below 9.50 again is not a good thing at all  :(

I'm out yesterday at 10.45
will wait for good signs even though I buy it higher ..

Hi Garoh, we got $10.08 on Friday's close, let's see what the next few days bring.

Analysts have been raising EPS estimates for ICOC, but I think they're still well below where they should be:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39630;image)

They're still calling for $0.63 EPS for the full year of 2007, but the company already made EPS of $0.54 ($0.49 from continuing operations) in the first half of the year. If the second half resembles the first half - I know there's seasonality, but because resin prices are moving higher - the company will have 2007 EPS of roughly $1.

I'll continue holding ICOC for the long term.

Quote from: David Randolph on August 12, 2007, 05:53:36 PM

Quote from: Garoh on August 10, 2007, 07:34:51 AM
Well closing below 9.50 again is not a good thing at all  :(

I'm out yesterday at 10.45
will wait for good signs even though I buy it higher ..

Hi Garoh, we got $10.08 on Friday's close, let's see what the next few days bring.

Analysts have been raising EPS estimates for ICOC, but I think they're still well below where they should be:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39630;image)

They're still calling for $0.63 EPS for the full year of 2007, but the company already made EPS of $0.54 ($0.49 from continuing operations) in the first half of the year. If the second half resembles the first half - I know there's seasonality, but because resin prices are moving higher - the company will have 2007 EPS of roughly $1.

I'll continue holding ICOC for the long term.

Yes David nice close ... I back in at $9.20 ..
I will wait until monday to see if tghe market calm down becuase the chart is still kind of bearish here ..

We need a close above 10.50 and I hope it will make on  monday  :)

Resin prices continue to climb (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/), which produces a positive environment for ICOC's operations. Because of this I don't expect the 2nd half downturn in revenue and earnings to be nearly as severe as it happened in 2006. The 2nd half may even be better than the first half, and if that's the case ICOC will rise a lot between now and the end of the year.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Dow Theory Quadrix by ticker over all ranking is 88. It is above 80 so the long term outlook is very good.
these are the other scores.
overall                    88
Momemtum           84
Value                      56
Quality Score          82
Financial Strength    56
Earnings estimate    61
Performance           99
Volume metrics       84

the top three are now
GIGM                   99 overall
NGA                     99 overall
ICOC                   88 overall

Aladin                  85 overall came in 4th
JAKK                    84 overall came in 5th
NVTL                   80 overall came in 6th

the rest of them are under 80. doesn't mean much I guess in the sense that they(dow theory) are strickly long term.
but you have been able to find explosive stocks so I am sure eventually they will make it to the rankings also.
:)

I just realized that the scoring changes on a daily basis it seems depending on what exactly I don't know.
top rankings                  Aug 8th                 today
NGA                              99                         99
GIGM                            98                         99
JAKK                             92                         84
ICOC                            91                         88
ALDN                            88                         85
NVTL                            78                         80
GSB                             71                          68
IMMR                           71                          76
SWIR                           75                          77
PFSW                           10                          08

QuoteI just realized that the scoring changes on a daily basis it seems depending on what exactly I don't know.

Hi pinoleropuro, it would be nice to know what's behind the scores. Probably the scores change on a daily basis because they're related to the stock price, as most fundamental metrics do.

ICOC even rose a bit, despite yesterday's general market meltdown. Polymer prices also rose, so ICOC's fundamentals are getting better by the day.

The 2nd half might be as strong as the first half, even though there's just a bit of negative seasonality due to the European vacations in August.

I'll continue holding ICOC for the long term.

ICOC went down 5.8% yesterday, it makes me sick, but I'll just patiently keep holding the stock.

When will earnings be announced?

Quote from: DragonAMG on August 16, 2007, 02:17:28 PM
When will earnings be announced?

They were announced in August the 7th DragonAMG, or are you talking about the 3rd quarter calendar earnings? I guess they'll be published at about the 1st half of November.

I see ICOC trading at 11 times earnings, while it grew revenues by 38% from the year ago levels. EPS increased 43%. I consider this very attractive from a fundamental standpoint and I'll keep holding ICOC, despite the short term adversity.

ICOC started Friday very well, but fizzled towards the close of the session.

Resin prices (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/default.aspx) continue to go up, powered by external demand (outside of the US), which rose 31% from the year ago level (while US demand fell 1.8%).

This is telling me the seasonally soft 3rd quarter won't be as soft as in the past and perhaps it won't be soft at all for ICOC. If this is the case we may be looking at $0.8 EPS for ICOC for the full year of 2007.

Longer term I enjoy the company's growth plans, opening a new factory in Dubai and Malaysia. I'll continue holding ICOC.

ICOC starts the day well, but then it has been turning south as we approach the closing bell. I think this is all part of a major consolidation process, but then the stock trades higher in accordance with the general market.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

At last, a positive day for ICOC, rising 3.06% to $9.09. It was just a small step, but one in the right direction.

ICOC's revenues have been growing steadily since 2001:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39829;image)

Operating margin also improved a lot and in fiscal Q3 2007 (the April-June quarter) it was the highest ever:

«Operating income margins improved to an all-time record of 7.9%, compared to 7.2% last year.»

However, net income was lower than in the previous quarter because of a much higher tax rate:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=39830;image)

I see ICOC as undervalued and will keep holding it.

Almost 9% rise so far today. Any particular news ??? 

It would be great if it can close over the 13ema

Quote from: jorgegr on August 22, 2007, 10:10:18 AM
Almost 9% rise so far today. Any particular news ??? 

No news out, the stock was undervalued, period.

Quote from: jorgegr on August 22, 2007, 10:16:32 AM
It would be great if it can close over the 13ema

You asked for it, and you got it jorgegr :)

I put the 13 days Exponential Moving Average on the chart below (green line).

ICOC is our long term bet on the World's manufacturing and industrialization growth. The stock is trading at about 13 times earnings now. I'll keep holding ICOC.

David:

You asked for it, and you got it jorgegr Smiley


Wish I could be so convincing with all my holdings  :D :D ;)

Quote from: jorgegr on August 23, 2007, 10:47:07 AM
David:

You asked for it, and you got it jorgegr Smiley


Wish I could be so convincing with all my holdings  :D :D ;)

Yeah, that would be nice :)

ICOC had a small setback yesterday, when compared to the previous day's advance. Perhaps we're not yet set to make a bullish advance phase to new all time highs, but I'm not worried about how long it takes to happen, but if it will indeed happen. Looking at the fundamental trends and the relative undervaluation of the stock, my belief is, sooner or later, it will happen.

Here's a quick update for ICOC:
Friday was nice session for ICOC, which is now approaching the short term descending resistance ($11.20). Volatility during the past weeks has been insane and quite difficult to analyze from a TA approach, which unfortunately happens a lot during extreme market conditions. Anyway, the main technical references for this Bull chart remains intact, even during the worst part of the market slump, ICOC had never broken its mid-term ascending support line (now @ $8.70) neither the ema-200.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold ICOC

Best regards,

Chart Update:
Nothing new, ICOC closed slightly positive getting a little bit closer to the descending resistance.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold ICOC

Regards,

Chart update:
ICOC is almost touching the descending resistance line now; a breakout can quickly put ICOC into new highs.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold ICOC

Regards,

Chart update:
Interesting breakout here ;) Even with the market closing slightly negative, ICOC manage to breakout its short term descending resistance.  If the stock manage to stay above $11 today, we may have the right setup for reaching new highs soon.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold ICOC

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 31, 2007, 08:51:34 AM
Chart update:
Interesting breakout here ;) Even with the market closing slightly negative, ICOC manage to breakout its short term descending resistance.  If the stock manage to stay above $11 today, we may have the right setup for reaching new highs soon.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold ICOC

Yeah, ICOC has been doing well, even while there was some insider selling from the part of Jon Biro, the company's CFO. This is a good sign.

Resin prices eased a bit over the past week, as you can read here, under Polyethylene (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/Research/WeeklyReview.aspx#Polyethylene).

Fundamentally I see ICOC trading at about 14 times earnings, while the Synthetics industry trades at roughly 21 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=ICOC), so it looks undervalued.

I've held ICOC through all the July/August consolidation phase, I certainly ain't going to sell now that the bullish trend is resuming. I'll keep holding ICOC. 

Go ICOC go

Since this thread is hot, I'll place this question here: "David, what do you think of the solar enegry companies, same old JASO and TSL? TSL seems to have corrected to a $39 support and bounced off; they project strong sales to continue in Germany and Italy; JASO raised their guidance right when the market took a nose dive in August and hence that PR brought little fruit. Both look pretty bullish now. JASO made an inverse H&S pattern and continues nicely up. Should we consider these?"

Thanks!

Quote from: berloga on September 04, 2007, 11:36:09 AM
Since this thread is hot, I'll place this question here: "David, what do you think of the solar enegry companies, same old JASO and TSL? TSL seems to have corrected to a $39 support and bounced off; they project strong sales to continue in Germany and Italy; JASO raised their guidance right when the market took a nose dive in August and hence that PR brought little fruit. Both look pretty bullish now. JASO made an inverse H&S pattern and continues nicely up. Should we consider these?"

Thanks!

Hi berloga, good questions :)

JASO and TSL have extraordinary revenue growth, but they have low net profit margins (around 10% the last time I've checked, but they're expected to go lower, as the average selling price goes down). Anyway, I need to check them again.

On the solar sector, HOKU has been very strong lately (and it's up 20% today) and ASTI (up 9% today), with Norsdk Hydro back up, also looks very promising. If it weren't those warrants at $11 this stock would be a lot higher now.

If I were to look for solar energy related companies I would be more inclined to buy HOKU or ASTI, instead of TSL and JASO. They are smaller and have much more upside potential in my view.

You're right, we should have at least one alternative energy related stock, I'll study one of these tomorrow.

Good luck :)

ICOC made an attempt at breaking out to new closing highs above the $12.08 resistance level, but, because it was up 42% in just a couple of weeks, it fell back on profit taking.

The way I see the fundamentals of the company, I say the stock may work sometime here around the $12 level, but higher prices, around $16, are coming. I'll patiently keep holding ICOC.

What a beauty, ICOC is. This global industrial company is now the largest holding of the Main Portfolio.

After a couple of months of heavy turbulence, the stock closed at a new 52 week high yesterday. I'm glad I've held throughout the storm and I'll keep holding.

ICOC was off 6% on Friday to touch its new support area around $12, which previously was a resistance. Fundamentals are attractive, as we've seen throughout this thread. I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC rose 2.1% as it reacted positively to its new $12 support, prior resistance level. Fundamentals are still attractive, even though, according to my valuation model, ICOC is the least attractive stock currently in the Main Portfolio, with "just" 52% to go until the optimal selling price. But fundamentals can improve further, we'll see about that in the next earnings report. 

I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC, with 68% of revenues in the latest quarter coming from outside the United States, is the Main's investment on global growth. Everyday it seems like the stock will fall back down, but it keeps building.

Sooner or later ICOC will close above $13, on its way to $16-$18, because it is still cheap (about 15.6 times earnings, compared with 21 for its industry average, and growing 37.5% a year, while the industry is growing just 5.8% a year).

I'll keep holding ICOC.

QuoteSooner or later ICOC will close above $13, on its way to $16-$18, because it is still cheap (about 15.6 times earnings, compared with 21 for its industry average, and growing 37.5% a year, while the industry is growing just 5.8% a year).

Indeed, ICOC closed above $13 (almost above $14).

I've been thinking about ICOC's current weight in the Main Portfolio, which is 11.2%, the largest holding. I thought that perhaps I could sell some of the position, locking in part of the profits and reducing the weight to a more normal one ... but if I did that I would have two problems:

1) I would be throwing away my money management scheme advantages, which are to let the stocks where the market agrees with my fundamental reasoning to have more weight, and to let the weight of the losers go down, essentially by always investing a fixed portion of capital in each holding (6.66% of total equity) and then never average up or down on the initial position, whatever happens. This is where my "respect for the market's opinion" goes at this point in time (in the past I've also used stop losses and trailing stops, which proved prejudicial over the long term).

2) I don't think 3 SOF Premium subscribers want to read "sell just a bit here" and then later "buy back that bit now that's a touch lower". For me, a Main holding is either a "HOLD" or a "SELL". Never a "SELL a bit", which would only cause confusion. I'm sure that, even though I don't recommend doing it, everybody can take some profits and buy back on reactions if that's his style.

As look to ICOC's valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main) it seems so reasonable ... perhaps it will be possible for the company to expand its net profit margin, beyond my 7% long term estimate - that would be super. But it's still early to change anything in the model. My current thinking on ICOC is to hold it until the optimal selling price of $18.96 is reached, and then I'll sell for a meaningful profit.

The trading plan for ICOC continues to be: HOLD.

Nothing changed on ICOC, the stock continues to be relatively strong, and it's not just a day or two, but a persistent issue. I'll continue holding ICOC.

Perhaps ICOC needs some rest, I could live with that. Anyway, fundamentals are still attractive so I'll continue holding the stock. This is global company, with 76% of its revenues coming from outside of the US (even though it is US based).

David, with the dollar going doing to the abyss as it is, US companies that have their revenue originated outside USA will have a fictious increase due to the dollar devaluation, correct?

Quote from: Dracull on September 19, 2007, 10:34:39 AM
David, with the dollar going doing to the abyss as it is, US companies that have their revenue originated outside USA will have a fictious increase due to the dollar devaluation, correct?

That's correct Dracull. But you know, for Americans, more dollars mean more dollars, that's not fictitious. Shares are also measured in USD. When the USD goes down, US companies get cheaper for international investors.

ICOC keeps moving up, I'm not sure if it is because it is undervalued, because it has 76% of its revenues coming from outside the US or because the price of oil is at an all time high (not if one considers inflation). Or if it is because of all this together.

Until we get more fundamental information I say the fair price for ICOC shares is about $19, so I'll keep on holding ICOC.

ICOC has been incredibly resilient. Of course, there will be negative days down the road, but I'm not willing to take profits before the optimal selling price of my valuation model, which is $18.96, is reached. Or else there's going to be some new fundamental information that will make me revise my estimates upward.

For now the trading plan for ICOC is hold.

It comes as no surprise that ICOC had a negative day on Friday, since the stock was up 76% in about a month. Still, the intrinsic value, given the current fundamental trends, is superior, so I'll hold ICOC throughout the corrective period. I expect to take profits around the $19 area, if there aren't any new fundamental developments.

Zack's published a few lines about ICOC yesterday:

«ICO, Inc. (Nasdaq: ICOC) is trading near a 52-week, which was reached last week. In early August, the company posted fiscal third-quarter income from continuing operations of 20 cents per share. The result topped the consensus estimate by 25% and improved on the year-ago result. Record quarterly revenues of $113.4 million eclipsed the previous year's total by 38%. ICOC offers a net margin of .0.04 and earnings growth of 100% for the most recently completed year, compared the year-prior.»

The stock rose 2.5% yesterday, while the S&P 500 went down about 0.5%. I think that with some more patience I'll be able to take profits in the $19 area, this before the 3rd quarter earnings release. Just 29% to go. I'll keep holding ICOC.

awesome pick David. applauds

cheers
Oliver

Quote from: la-onda on September 25, 2007, 09:25:31 PM
awesome pick David. applauds

cheers
Oliver

Thanks la-onda, indeed, ICOC has been great. I'll keep holding the stock for some more time, looking to take profits in the $19 area, if there's no new fundamental information.

Can't find any news why icoc getting hit so hard today.

Quote from: soxguy on September 26, 2007, 11:36:29 AM
Can't find any news why icoc getting hit so hard today.

La-onda had to talk ;D

I guess when a stock is up 73% in about a month you don't need any news for a 10% plus sell off to happen. I wish the sell off came after hitting the $19 area, but no, it happened now. I guess it's no big deal.

From the yahoo mb. View all Topics | View all Messages   < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
Re: There must be some down grade today.  (Not rated)      12 minutes ago     There is a reason for today's action that has nothing to do with shorts. A pretty well respected investment advisory service, Upside Stocks, has had a buy on this for some time. Last night their hotline came out with a sell saying that the stock had probably peaked. They came out with the same advice for DWSN - and it's reacting similarly.

Their advice posted below. I know this rag is pretty widely followed.

DOWNGRADES: Dawson Geophysical ($80; NASDAQ: DWSN) has been an outstanding performer, gaining 59% since its initial recommendation six months ago. While recent results have been excellent and near-term growth prospects are bright, the stock appears fully valued at 26 times trailing earnings — well above its five-year average P/E of 19. Dawson, initially recommended at $49.97 on March 29, should be sold.


----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------

ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.
Rate it:

Might explain the drop if true.

Quote from: soxguy on September 26, 2007, 03:48:16 PM
From the yahoo mb. View all Topics | View all Messages   < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
Re: There must be some down grade today.  (Not rated)      12 minutes ago     There is a reason for today's action that has nothing to do with shorts. A pretty well respected investment advisory service, Upside Stocks, has had a buy on this for some time. Last night their hotline came out with a sell saying that the stock had probably peaked. They came out with the same advice for DWSN - and it's reacting similarly.

Their advice posted below. I know this rag is pretty widely followed.

DOWNGRADES: Dawson Geophysical ($80; NASDAQ: DWSN) has been an outstanding performer, gaining 59% since its initial recommendation six months ago. While recent results have been excellent and near-term growth prospects are bright, the stock appears fully valued at 26 times trailing earnings — well above its five-year average P/E of 19. Dawson, initially recommended at $49.97 on March 29, should be sold.


----------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------

ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.
Rate it:

Might explain the drop if true.

I can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

La-onda had to talk ;D
[/quote]
:D :D

no downgrades found  ;)
latest from 7th of Sept.:
ICOC: Sidoti & Co Cuts to Neutral from Buy
Friday , September 07, 2007 11:08ET
Issuer: ICO, Inc. (NasdaqNM: ICOC)
Analyst Firm:  Sidoti & Co.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Neutral (from Buy)

but this was definitely not the reason for the drop yesterday, I agree with Davids comment
cheers
O.

QuoteI can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

Did you check BigSully1? Thanks.

«ICO ($15; NASDAQ: ICOC) has outstanding operating momentum, reflecting volume gains and price increases. Near-term growth should remain strong, but the stock appears to fully discount ICO's outlook. At 19 times the consensus profit estimate for the year ending September 2008, the stock's forward P/E is nearly twice its five-year average. ICO, initially recommended at $8.71 on May 31, should be sold.»

It's curious, they recommended the stock in the same exact day that I did, May 31st, 2007.

They think it reached its full value so they recommended selling. This had quite an impact on the stock ... I thought it was strange when it opened down 3% plus and then, because the stock was up so much, the selling gained momentum.

Anyway, I'm glad the cause for the sell off was this and not a new piece of fundamental information out of the company. This doesn't worry me at all (even though I, like everybody else, feel the short term pain).

You see, they're basing their sell recommendation on analysts views for fiscal 2008 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC), which call for full year EPS of $0.78. I think this is too low. Just like the fiscal 2007 figure, which they still estimate at $0.60. Well, the company already made $0.54 in the nine months so far into the year and even though the 4th quarter is just a bit seasonally weak, I think the company will make more than $0.06 EPS, don't you think?

ICOC had an exceptionally strong sell off yesterday, but I think the $12 support area and the improving fundamentals will ultimately drive it to new highs. I'll patiently keep holding ICOC.

Quote from: David Randolph on September 27, 2007, 08:00:56 AM

QuoteI can verify it is true as I have a subscription as I've mentioned before,  on this thread, maybe others. I'm surprised someone quoted copyrighted material on the public Yahoo board though. They issued a total of 7 sells last night, all of which are down today. I had already sold mine couple days ago and was planning to buyback around 12, but the selling pressure today was huge, will have to wait now to see how it plays out.

Did you check BigSully1? Thanks.

It's curious, they recommended the stock in the same exact day that I did, May 31st, 2007.

They think it reached its full value so they recommended selling. This had quite an impact on the stock ... I thought it was strange when it opened down 3% plus and then, because the stock was up so much, the selling gained momentum.

Anyway, I'm glad the cause for the sell off was this and not a new piece of fundamental information out of the company. This doesn't worry me at all (even though I, like everybody else, feel the short term pain).

You see, they're basing their sell recommendation on analysts views for fiscal 2008 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC), which call for full year EPS of $0.78. I think this is too low. Just like the fiscal 2007 figure, which they still estimate at $0.60. Well, the company already made $0.54 in the nine months so far into the year and even though the 4th quarter is just a bit seasonally weak, I think the company will make more than $0.06 EPS, don't you think?

ICOC had an exceptionally strong sell off yesterday, but I think the $12 support area and the improving fundamentals will ultimately drive it to new highs. I'll patiently keep holding ICOC.

Yes david. I got the hotline and double checked it . I know it was originally reccommended about the same time as you recommended. I want to point out that they don't always have the timliest buy/sells and I only cherry-pick from them, even occaisonally buying after they throw in the towel. A few weeks ago they sold one that they held for several years w/ a very large gain, the stock is now up 20% higher after diving big the day the sell rec came out. I think $12 is no way paying too much for this stock and ICOC is VERY likely, almost assuredly to beat  expectations, and I don't see why they couldn't continue to do so. I would like to buy back soon.

Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

Quote from: David Randolph on September 27, 2007, 10:56:12 AM
Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

I agree David. I think it has probably already seen the bottom of it's correction and I shouldn't have been so greedy to hope to buy back around $12. The part about the Top of the IBD list is speculation right now, but also very possible. Stocks have to be above $15 and remain there to get on the list. Has to get over the $15 resistance level first., but definitely IBD 100 quality. IBD has/had absolute highest/best top ratings in all four categories for ICOC, although the sector as a whole is not that well rated.

Thanks for the information BigSully1. It seems ICOC went down for no fundamental reason, so the stock should go back up and breakout to new highs, since the intrinsic value is superior, at least according to my analysis.

I'll hold ICOC.

ICOC already recovered more than half of that very steep Wednesday sell off.

I see resin prices are firm and bound to go higher, after some weakness (read the polyethylene analysis at www.plasticsexchange.com), which is good for ICOC.

I'm confident ICOC will end up breaking out above the $16 level, if given time. I'll keep holding ICOC.

Nothing new for ICOC today, I'll keep holding the stock.

My journey from being mostly a technical trader to a fundamentally based long term investor has made me think about some other, perhaps as important or even more important, issues, like money management.

As I look to the Main Portfolio table (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) I see that the stock with the least potential (ICOC) has the highest size, and the stock with the highest potential (CIMT) has the lowest size. It shouldn't be this way, not if I'm in the pursuit of  outstanding results.

But, of course, CIMT is more risky than ICOC, because it is such a micro-cap company.

I still need to give more thought about the "size issue", but somehow I don't feel comfortable holding 10.2% in ICOC, with just 37% to go to the optimal selling price given by my valuation model.

So I'm going to do something that I think I've never done before, which is, I'm going to sell half of my ICOC position, bringing it down from 10.2% of the Main Portfolio capital to a more reasonable 5.1%.

If ICOC were one of those stocks that I truly love for the long term I would keep the entire position, but if that were the case I wouldn't be willing to sell the stock 37% higher either, I would hold it for a lot more than that.

The trading plan is:

Take a 60% or so profit in ICOC, selling half of the position. Keep holding the other half.

There were some news out for ICOC:

• ICO to Redeem All Outstanding Shares of Preferred Stock (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071003/law117.html?.v=67)
PR Newswire (Wed 4:46pm)

This was already expected, since management talked about it at the latest conference call. Anyway, hopefully it will boost the stock.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Nice move from ICOC yesterday, I'm glad I've kept one half of it, which I don't expect to sell before the $19 area is hit, which is the optimal selling price given by my valuation model. The current 5.2% size makes me more comfortable holding ICOC.

Resin prices are ticking up again, which bodes well for ICOC's revenues and earnings:

Resin market analysis from the Plastics Exchange (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/Research/WeeklyReview.aspx#Polyethylene)

I'll keep holding ICOC.

ICOC opened with a gap down for no particular reason, so it climbed back up, also for no particular reason (other than putting things back where they should be). But, to be really fair, ICOC should be in the $19 area ... that's where I expect it to be six months from now, I'll continue holding ICOC.

ICOC rose 7.8% yesterday and I'm starting to regret having sold half of my position in it. On the other hand I'm glad I kept half.

The "sell half" recommendation is the easiest one, because the analyst always seems at least half right and never wrong. However, I don't think he provides a valuable service giving this type of recommendation ... everybody knows how to take a profit, or a half-profit, but to know if a stock is a buy or a sell, without hesitation ... that I call having a clearly defined strategy and following it.

So, I must say that I'm ashamed of that "sell half" attitude. Even more so because I kind of sold because someone else said "sell" and that had an impact on the market. I'd better be more confident in my own fundamental analysis.

But, I'm glad I've held half ;D and I'll continue holding this half for what's to come.

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   ICO, Inc. 

Pre-Market Quotes |  Pre-Market Charts |  After Hours Quotes |  After Hours Charts  Oct. 10, 2007 Market Close: $ 14.95 



   
   After Hours Trade Reporting   
   

After Hours
Last: $ 15.61   After Hours
High: $ 15.95 
After Hours
Volume: 47,071   After Hours
Low: $ 14.7636

After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
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17:30   $ 15.61  200
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17:22   $ 15.74  900
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17:12   $ 15.88  1,000
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17:12   $ 15.89  825
17:12   $ 15.89  1,000
17:12   $ 15.89  100
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17:12   $ 15.89  100
17:12   $ 15.89  400
17:12   $ 15.89  100
17:12   $ 15.89  900
17:12   $ 15.95  1,000
17:12   $ 15.95  100
17:12   $ 15.95  100
17:12   $ 15.95  725
17:12   $ 15.95  275
17:12   $ 15.95  200
17:12   $ 15.95  100
17:12   $ 15.95  225
17:12   $ 15.87  600
17:12   $ 15.87  400
17:11   $ 15.73  100
17:11   $ 15.73  800
17:11   $ 15.74  100
17:11   $ 15.89  100
17:11   $ 15.89  790
17:10   $ 15.73  100
17:10   $ 15.73  400
17:10   $ 15.73  100
17:10   $ 15.73  400
17:10   $ 15.73  100
17:10   $ 15.73  300



 



1 2 3 Next 
   



Investors may trade in the Pre-Market (8:00-9:30 a.m. ET) and the After Hours Market (4:00-6:30 p.m. ET).
Participation from Market Makers  Up after hours on good volume. No news.

QuoteUp after hours on good volume. No news.

There was an SEC form 13G filed by Bear Sterns, at 4:20 pm, saying it owns 10.6% of ICOC:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353567/000106259207000164/icoc13g-093007.txt

I wonder if that Upside Stocks sell recommendation had anything to do with this >:D

Quote from: David Randolph on October 10, 2007, 05:52:27 PM

QuoteUp after hours on good volume. No news.

There was an SEC form 13G filed by Bear Stearns, at 4:20 pm, saying it owns 10.6% of ICOC:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353567/000106259207000164/icoc13g-093007.txt

I wonder if that Upside Stocks sell recommendation had anything to do with this >:D

Bear Stearns didn't just recommend ICOC (like it happened on GIGM), Bear Stearns actually bought a 10.6% stake in the company. ICOC opened high but it couldn't hold on to its gains because of the general market weakness. Anyway, I'm more confident than ever that the stock will reach $19 in the not so distant future.

ICOC keeps getting better, closing at a new seventeen year high yesterday. The all time high was set in July, 1990, at $16.25, so we're just shy of it. I shouldn't have sold half of this holding. But I'll keep this half for the long term ... just wondering what Q3 2007 will bring us in terms of revenues, profits and outlook. I wonder if my estimates aren't too conservative, because it feels like ICOC can be a multi-bagger and it would be a shame to cut profits around $19. Anyway, the stock still closed at $16.15, so I'll probably have some more time to think it over.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Quote from: BigSully1 on September 27, 2007, 01:45:41 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on September 27, 2007, 10:56:12 AM
Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

I agree David. I think it has probably already seen the bottom of it's correction and I shouldn't have been so greedy to hope to buy back around $12. The part about the Top of the IBD list is speculation right now, but also very possible. Stocks have to be above $15 and remain there to get on the list. Has to get over the $15 resistance level first., but definitely IBD 100 quality. IBD has/had absolute highest/best top ratings in all four categories for ICOC, although the sector as a whole is not that well rated.

Well it did it. ICOC is now #7 on the IBD 100. Now lets hope it can stay above $15 and stay on the list. Their comments are "33% past $12.18 buy pt of volatile 9 week cup base.

Quote from: BigSully1 on October 15, 2007, 03:39:27 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on September 27, 2007, 01:45:41 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on September 27, 2007, 10:56:12 AM
Thanks BigSully1. I guess ICOC suffered a double whammy yesterday, I've just received an e-mail with the following explanation for yesterday's fall:

«Before I go on, I want to let you know what happened on September 26, when the stock closed down nearly $3 on 4x the usual volume.  It turns out that someone (hedge funds ??) put out a false report that ICOC was downgraded by a "boutique shop firm" from Buy to Neutral.  Well, that firm (Sidoti) did downgrade ICOC but it was on September 7.  That day, the stock closed at $12 and since that day it got as high as $15.50.   When you look at the chart, you see that this stock has been going almost straight up from $9 during the last couple of months, so in a way, yesterdays "breather" was necessary and gives a much better entry.»

The e-mail also says ICOC is going to the top 10 of IBD top 100 list. We'll see about that.

ICOC is recovering some ground today, up about 5%.

I agree David. I think it has probably already seen the bottom of it's correction and I shouldn't have been so greedy to hope to buy back around $12. The part about the Top of the IBD list is speculation right now, but also very possible. Stocks have to be above $15 and remain there to get on the list. Has to get over the $15 resistance level first., but definitely IBD 100 quality. IBD has/had absolute highest/best top ratings in all four categories for ICOC, although the sector as a whole is not that well rated.

Well it did it. ICOC is now #7 on the IBD 100. Now lets hope it can stay above $15 and stay on the list. Their comments are "33% past $12.18 buy pt of volatile 9 week cup base.

Whoops! sorry. that should be #9 on the list instead of 7.

QuoteWell it did it. ICOC is now #7 on the IBD 100. Now lets hope it can stay above $15 and stay on the list. Their comments are "33% past $12.18 buy pt of volatile 9 week cup base.

QuoteWhoops! sorry. that should be #9 on the list instead of 7.

# 9 out of 100 is very good. I wonder if this IBD issue could be the catalyst to drive ICOC towards the $19 area. I remember what joining IBD did to a medium cap like SYX several months ago. Unfortunately the rise wasn't sustainable, because there wasn't enough fundamental backup, it was a liquidity driven move. If something like that happens in ICOC I'll take profits around $19, which is the optimal selling price given by my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main).

So, my plan is simple:

1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

The trading plan is set:

QuoteSo, my plan is simple:

1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

I'll just follow the plan.

Wow, it has been some time since I last went to www.plasticsexchange.com, but I see now that resin prices had a big jump the last few days. This bodes well for ICOC's 4th quarter results.

I'll continue with my trading plan for ICOC, hopping that the incoming fundamental data will force myself to rise the estimates that I have on the valuation model:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

The plan is set:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

Nothing else to do but follow it.

ICOC had a short life on the IBD 100. Couldn't hold $15 and was removed.

Quote from: BigSully1 on October 20, 2007, 11:53:36 PM
ICOC had a short life on the IBD 100. Couldn't hold $15 and was removed.

Thanks for the info BigSully1 :)

Probably next week we'll be back above $15. Anyway, a stock's price doesn't tell me much, since, as we know, a $50 stock can represent a company worth less than a $5 stock, it all depends on the number of shares outstanding.

The big rally in resin prices (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/) tells me ICOC's 4th quarter earnings will probably be very positive. If we don't get to $19 when the company reports Q3 I'll probably patiently wait for Q4.

I'll keep holding ICOC.

Even though resin is a cost for ICOC, the higher it goes the better for the company (providing that it doesn't impair demand), because it increases average selling prices and profit margins:

«The Company's revenues and profitability are impacted by the change in resin prices.  The Company uses various resins (primarily polyethylene) to make its products.  As the price of resin increases or decreases, market prices for the Company's products will generally also increase or decrease.  This will typically lead to higher or lower average selling prices and will impact the Company's operating income and operating margin.  The impact on operating income is due to a lag in matching the change in raw material cost of goods sold and the change in product sales prices.  As of June 30, 2007 and September 30, 2006, the Company had $26.8 million and $21.7 million of raw material inventory and $15.9 million and $19.3 million of finished goods inventory, respectively.  The Company attempts to minimize its exposure to resin price changes by monitoring and carefully managing the quantity of its inventory on hand and product sales prices.»

And resin prices are going up sharply now: The Plastics Exchange (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/)

I'll continue with my trading plan for ICOC, until I get new fundamental information:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

It looks like resin prices are positively correlated with oil prices, I remember one of you brought us an article on the subject and the recent price action also suggests this positive relation.

Oil closed above $90 yesterday, and resin prices also inched higher to a new high.

This is good news for ICOC, because the average selling prices of their products are also positively correlated with resin prices.

The trading plan for ICOC remains:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

There weren't any news out for ICOC over the weekend and technically we're still within a consolidation phase. The trading plan remains:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

ICOC is trying to shake me out before running towards $19, but I'm prepared for the turbulence and will keep respecting the following plan:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

Nice day for ICOC, rising 2.9%. The higher oil and resin prices go, the better for ICOC's revenues and earnings.

I'll continue respecting the following plan:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

Of the four reasons I gave to buy ICOC (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9701.msg99596#msg99596), only one remains valid. The valid reason is that there's still revenue and EPS growth. But the chart went from bullish to mixed, valuation isn't attractive anymore and the incentive coming from the redemption of preferred shares is behind us.

I have the following trading plan, though:

Quote1) If we get to $19 without new fundamental information I'll sell;

2) If there's new fundamental information before $19 is hit I'll adjust my valuation model accordingly and will hold until the new optimal selling price is reached.

I'm a bit worried about the general market in the US, because the S&P 500 fell 2.7% yesterday, right after 3rd quarter GDP numbers came in better than expected and the FED lowered interest rates. It worries me that the market fell after such good news.

I hesitate between ignoring the general market weakness or considering it and other factors to take a smaller than expected profit in ICOC, protecting the Main Portfolio from a possible steeper fall.

Because there's just 38% to go to the optimal selling price for ICOC (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=ICOC&portfolio=main), I decide to take my profits around today's open.

The trading plan for ICOC is: SELL.

good decision to sell on Nov 2nd  :D

I bought in this week at $10.98.  The valuation is much more attractive down here at $11.

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 05, 2007, 02:32:52 PM
I bought in this week at $10.98.  The valuation is much more attractive down here at $11.
[/quote

Hope you are still holding it Buddjas

         

Press Release Source: ICO, Inc.


ICO, Inc. Announces Record Financial Results for Fourth Quarter Ended September 30, 2007
Thursday December 6, 7:25 pm ET


HOUSTON, Dec. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ICO, Inc. (Nasdaq: ICOC - News), global producer of custom polymer powders and plastic film concentrates, today announced its results for the year ended September 30, 2007 and the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2007.

    Fourth Quarter Highlights
    -- Record quarterly revenues of $123.6 million, an increase of
       $36.3 million or 42% from the prior year
    -- Volume growth of 12% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006
    -- Record quarterly operating income of $9.7 million, up 75%
       year-over-year
    -- Income per share from continuing operations of $.22 fully diluted
    -- Outlook remains positive


Fourth Quarter 2007 vs. Fourth Quarter 2006

Revenues increased $36.3 million or 42%, compared to the same quarter in the prior year, to $123.6 million. An increase in volumes sold of 12% led to an increase in revenues of $18.0 million, or 50% of the revenue increase. Volume improvements were driven by growth in Asia Pacific and Europe, where market demand has increased, as well as Bayshore Industrial, our North American compounding operation. Increases in average selling prices primarily caused by changes in product sales mix caused revenues to increase $12.8 million. In addition, stronger foreign currencies compared to the U.S. Dollar increased revenues by $5.5 million.

The growth in revenues led to an increase in gross profit of $5.3 million over the same quarter in fiscal 2006, or 33%, to $21.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2007. Gross margins declined from 18.4% to 17.3% due to a change in product and service sales mix. Sales, general and administrative expenses ("SG&A") increased $1.6 million due to higher employee compensation and benefit costs and the effect of stronger foreign currencies. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A dropped to 8.3% from 9.9%, primarily due to the change in product and service sales mix. Operating income for the quarter was $9.7 million, an increase of $4.2 million or 75%. Operating income margins improved to 7.8%, compared to 6.3% last year. Income from continuing operations increased $2.8 million (85%) to $6.0 million, or $.22 per fully diluted share, as a result of the improved operating income.

The quarter included $0.3 million of income included in impairment, restructuring and other costs on the face of the income statement. This amount included $0.9 million for a gain relating to insurance proceeds to be received for the fire damage sustained by our operation in New Jersey. This gain was partially offset by long-term asset impairments primarily related to certain equipment in Australia.

Fourth Quarter 2007 vs. Third Quarter 2007

Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007, revenues increased $10.2 million, or 9% largely due to a change in product mix. Also contributing to the revenue growth was a 5% sequential increase in sales and service volumes. The growth in volumes increased revenues by $2.0 million. A change in product and service sales mix increased revenues by $7.4 million, and the effect of stronger foreign currencies increased revenues by $0.8 million. The revenue increase led to an increase in gross profit of $0.8 million.

Similar to the year-over-year quarterly comparison, the sequential gross profit increase partially offset by higher SG&A expenses led to an increase in operating income of $0.7 million or 8%. As a result of the higher operating income in the fourth quarter, income from continuing operations increased $0.4 million or 7% to $6.0 million.

"We just completed another record-setting quarter," stated the Company's President and CEO, Mr. A. John Knapp, Jr., "driven by broad based profitability improvements as fourth quarter operating income for all of our business segments improved year-over-year. While we will see usual seasonal weakness in our next fiscal quarter, we expect that we will continue to see very satisfactory year-over-year revenue and diluted earnings per share growth in the quarter ended December 31, 2007."

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Our balance sheet remains in very good condition to support the continued growth of the Company. Available credit under committed credit facilities increased $15.1 million during the fourth quarter to $70.6 million. The strong earnings and a weaker U.S. Dollar increased stockholders' equity by $6.7 million during the quarter to $91.0 million as of September 30, 2007. Capital expenditures were $4.0 million during the fourth quarter and $11.6 million for fiscal year 2007.

Conference Call on the Web


    A live Internet broadcast of ICO, Inc.'s conference call regarding fiscal
2007 fourth quarter results can be accessed at 10:00 a.m. Central Standard
Time on Friday, December 7, 2007 at
http://www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=44058, where the webcast replay will
be accessible for thirty days.  The webcast replay will also be accessible on
the Company's website at www.icopolymers.com for a period of twelve months.
(Minimum requirements to listen to the broadcast are:  The Windows Media
Player software, downloadable free from
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windowsmedia/player/download/download.aspx
and at least a 28.8Kbps connection to the Internet.)

Investors are invited to participate in the conference by dialing 847-413-3238, passcode 19572900. A replay of the conference call will be available by dialing 630-652-3044, passcode 19572900.

About ICO, Inc.

With 19 locations in 10 countries, ICO Polymers produces custom polymer powders for rotational molding and other polymer related businesses, such as the textile, metal coating and masterbatch markets. ICO remains an industry leader in size reduction, compounding and other tolling services for plastic and non-plastic materials. ICO's Bayshore Industrial subsidiary produces specialty compounds, concentrates and additives primarily for the plastic film industry. Additional information about ICO, Inc. can be found on the Company's website at http://www.icopolymers.com. Contact: CFO - Jon C. Biro at 713-351-4100.

This press release contains forward-looking statements, which are not statements of historical facts and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. These include, but are not limited to, restrictions imposed by the Company's outstanding indebtedness, changes in the cost and availability of polymers, demand for the Company's services and products, business cycles and other industry conditions, the Company's lack of asset diversification, international risks, operational risks, and other factors detailed in the Company's form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2006 and its other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those indicated.




                                  ICO, Inc.
                     Consolidated Statement of Operations
     (Unaudited and in thousands, except per share data and percentages)

                                  Three Months Ended      Twelve Months Ended
                                September 30,    June 30,    September 30,
                                2007     2006      2007      2007      2006
    Product Sales            $113,901  $77,829   $102,963  $379,344  $289,163
    Toll Services               9,658    9,402     10,415    38,573    35,168
                             --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
    Total Revenues            123,559   87,231    113,378   417,917   324,331
    Cost of sales and
     services (exclusive of
     depreciation shown
     separately below)        102,195   71,193     92,836   344,171   261,228
                             --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
    Gross Profit (1)           21,364   16,038     20,542    73,746    63,103
      Selling, general
       and administrative
       expense                 10,236    8,621      9,727    37,676    34,284
      Depreciation and
       amortization             1,785    1,885      1,855     7,251     7,386
      Impairment,
       restructuring and
       other costs (income)      (343)       -          -      (997)      118
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
    Operating income            9,686    5,532      8,960    29,816    21,315
    Other income (expense):
      Interest expense, net      (926)    (490)      (799)   (3,227)   (2,091)
      Other income (expense)      181     (238)      (129)     (115)       75
    Income from continuing    --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
     operations before
     income taxes               8,941    4,804      8,032    26,474    19,299
    Provision for income
     taxes                      2,893    1,529      2,400     6,712     5,836
    Income from continuing    --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
     operations                 6,048    3,275      5,632    19,762    13,463
    Income (loss) from
     discontinued
     operations, net of
     income taxes                 (65)  (1,407)       (18)    1,356    (1,459)
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
    Net income                 $5,983   $1,868     $5,614   $21,118   $12,004
    Preferred Stock dividends     (82)    (544)       (82)     (554)   (2,176)
    Net gain on redemption
     of Preferred Stock             -        -          -     6,023         -
    Net income applicable to  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
     Common Stock              $5,901   $1,324     $5,532   $26,587    $9,828
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
    Basic income from
     continuing operations
     per common share           $0.23    $0.11      $0.21     $0.97     $0.44
    Basic net income per      ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
     common share               $0.22    $0.05      $0.21     $1.02     $0.38
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
    Diluted income from
     continuing operations
     per common share           $0.22    $0.10      $0.20     $0.71     $0.43
    Diluted net income per    ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
     common share               $0.21    $0.05      $0.20     $0.76     $0.37
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
    Gross Margin (2)             17.3%    18.4%      18.1%     17.6%     19.5%

    (1) Calculated as Total Revenues minus Cost of Sales and Services,
        exclusive of Depreciation Expense.
    (2) Calculated as Gross Profit divided by Total Revenues.



                                  ICO, Inc.
                          Consolidated Balance Sheet
          (Unaudited and in thousands, except share data and ratios)

                                                  September 30,  September 30,
                                                      2007            2006
    ASSETS
    Current assets:
      Cash and cash equivalents                      $8,561         $17,427
      Trade receivables                              95,142         67,742
      Inventories                                    60,420         41,961
      Deferred income taxes                           1,778          2,195
      Prepaid and other current assets                9,924          6,775
                                                   ---------      ---------
        Total current assets                        175,825        136,100
                                                   ---------      ---------
    Property, plant and equipment, net               57,396         50,884
    Goodwill                                          9,228          8,585
    Other assets                                      3,768          2,392
        Total assets                               ---------      ---------
                                                   $246,217       $197,961
                                                   =========      =========
    LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
    Current liabilities:
      Short-term borrowings under credit
       facilities                                   $16,133        $17,214
      Current portion of long-term debt              11,611          4,696
      Accounts payable                               66,906         35,809
      Accrued salaries and wages                      7,313          5,360
      Income taxes payable                            2,368          4,188
      Other current liabilities                      13,636         11,332
        Total current liabilities                  ---------      ---------
                                                    117,967         78,599
                                                   ---------      ---------
    Long-term debt, net of current portion           29,605         21,559
    Deferred income taxes                             4,820          4,210
    Other long-term liabilities                       2,783          1,876
        Total liabilities                          ---------      ---------
                                                    155,175        106,244
                                                   ---------      ---------
    Commitments and contingencies                         -              -
    Stockholders' equity:
        Convertible exchangeable
         preferred stock, without par
         value -- 345,000 shares authorized;
         46,381 and 322,500 shares issued and
         outstanding, respectively, with a
         liquidation preference of $5,812 and
         $40,410, respectively                            2             13
        Undesignated preferred stock,
         without par value -- 155,000 shares
         authorized;
         No shares issued and outstanding                 -              -
        Common stock, without par value -- 50,000,000
         shares authorized; 26,709,370 and
         25,792,168 shares issued and outstanding,
         respectively                                47,659         45,087
        Additional paid-in capital                   74,920        104,844
        Accumulated other comprehensive
         income (loss)                                5,416           (154)
        Accumulated deficit                         (36,955)       (58,073)
          Total stockholders' equity               ---------      ---------
          Total liabilities and                      91,042         91,717
           stockholders' equity                    ---------      ---------
                                                   $246,217       $197,961

=========      =========
     OTHER BALANCE SHEET DATA
     Working capital                                $57,858        $57,501
     Current ratio                                      1.5            1.7
     Total debt                                     $57,349        $43,469
     Debt-to-capitalization                            38.6%          32.2%



                                  ICO, Inc.
                       Supplemental Segment Information
               (Unaudited and in thousands, except percentages)

    Revenues
    Three Months Ended                % of              % of
     September 30:           2007     Total     2006    Total   Change    %
    ICO Europe             $45,957      37%   $34,210    39%   $11,747   34%
    ICO Asia Pacific        25,166      20%    13,291    15%    11,875   89%
    ICO Polymers North
     America                 9,891       8%    11,755    14%    (1,864) (16%)
    ICO Brazil               3,650       3%     2,407     3%     1,243   52%
                          -------- --------  -------- -------- --------
    Total ICO Polymers      84,664      68%    61,663    71%    23,001   37%
    Bayshore Industrial     38,895      32%    25,568    29%    13,327   52%
                          -------- --------  -------- -------- --------
    Consolidated          $123,559     100%   $87,231   100%   $36,328   42%
                          ======== ========  ======== ======== ========

    Fiscal Year Ended                 % of              % of
     September 30:           2007     Total     2006    Total   Change    %
    ICO Europe            $170,135      41%  $129,372    40%   $40,763   32%
    ICO Asia Pacific        84,790      20%    47,819    15%    36,971   77%
    ICO Polymers North
     America                41,377      10%    44,834    14%    (3,457)  (8%)
    ICO Brazil              13,255       3%     9,301     3%     3,954   43%
                          -------- --------  -------- -------- --------
    Total ICO Polymers     309,557      74%   231,326    72%    78,231   34%
    Bayshore Industrial    108,360      26%    93,005    28%    15,355   17%
                          -------- --------  -------- -------- --------
    Consolidated          $417,917     100%  $324,331   100%   $93,586   29%
                          ======== ========  ======== ======== ========


    Operating income (loss)
    Three Months Ended
     September 30:           2007     2006     Change    %
    ICO Europe              $2,449   $1,090    $1,359   125%
    ICO Asia Pacific         1,753      712     1,041   146%
    ICO Polymers North
     America                 1,709    1,320       389    29%
    ICO Brazil                  34       (9)       43    NM
                          -------- --------  --------
    Total ICO Polymers       5,945    3,113     2,832    91%
    Bayshore Industrial      5,716    3,964     1,752    44%
                          -------- --------  --------
    Total Operations        11,661    7,077     4,584    65%
    General Corporate
     Expense                (1,747)  (1,327)     (420)   32%
    Unallocated stock option
     compensation             (228)    (218)      (10)    5%
                          -------- --------  --------
    Consolidated            $9,686   $5,532    $4,154    75%
                          ======== ========  ========

    Fiscal Year Ended
     September 30:            2007     2006     Change    %
    ICO Europe              $9,008   $6,021    $2,987    50%
    ICO Asia Pacific         5,914    2,412     3,502   145%
    ICO Polymers North
     America                 6,022    5,037       985    20%
    ICO Brazil                 301     (459)      760    NM
                          -------- --------  --------
    Total ICO Polymers      21,245   13,011     8,234    63%
    Bayshore Industrial     15,358   14,843       515     3%
                          -------- --------  --------
    Total Operations        36,603   27,854     8,749    31%
    General Corporate
     Expense                (6,117)  (5,682)     (435)    8%
    Unallocated stock option
     compensation             (670)    (857)      187   (22%)
                          -------- --------  --------
    Consolidated           $29,816  $21,315    $8,501    40%
                          ======== ========  ========


    Operating income (loss) as
     a percentage of revenues      Three Months Ended       Fiscal Year Ended
                                       September 30,          September 30,
                                2007     2006    Change  2007    2006  Change
    ICO Europe                   5%       3%        2%    5%      5%     0%
    ICO Asia Pacific             7%       5%        2%    7%      5%     2%
    ICO Polymers North
     America                    17%      11%        6%   15%     11%     4%
    ICO Brazil                   1%       0%        1%    2%     (5%)    7%
    Total ICO Polymers           7%       5%        2%    7%      6%     1%
    Bayshore Industrial         15%      16%       (1%)  14%     16%    (2%)
    Consolidated                 8%       6%        2%    7%      7%     0%

    NM = Not meaningful



                                  ICO, Inc.
                  Supplemental Segment Information (cont'd.)
               (Unaudited and in thousands, except percentages)

    Revenues
                                            Three Months Ended
                                September 30,       June 30,
                                         % of             % of
                                 2007    Total     2007   Total  Change    %
    ICO Europe                 $45,957     37%   $47,797   42%  $(1,840)  (4%)
    ICO Asia Pacific            25,166     20%    25,528   22%     (362)  (1%)
    ICO Polymers North America   9,891      8%    11,083   10%   (1,192) (11%)
    ICO Brazil                   3,650      3%     3,286    3%      364   11%
                              -------- -------  -------- ------ --------
    Total ICO Polymers          84,664     68%    87,694   77%   (3,030)  (3%)
    Bayshore Industrial         38,895     32%    25,684   23%   13,211   51%
                              -------- -------  -------- ------ --------
    Consolidated              $123,559    100%  $113,378  100%  $10,181    9%
                              ======== =======  ======== ====== ========


    Operating income (loss)
                                     Three Months Ended
                           September 30, June 30,
                                 2007    2007      Change   %
    ICO Europe                  $2,449  $3,376     $(927) (27%)
    ICO Asia Pacific             1,753   2,315      (562) (24%)
    ICO Polymers North
     America                     1,709   1,553       156   10%
    ICO Brazil                      34      63       (29) (46%)
                                ------- -------   -------
    Total ICO Polymers           5,945   7,307    (1,362) (19%)
    Bayshore Industrial          5,716   3,329     2,387   72%
                                ------- -------   -------
    Total Operations            11,661  10,636     1,025   10%
    General Corporate Expense   (1,747) (1,511)     (236)  16%
    Unallocated stock option
     compensation                 (228)   (165)      (63)  38%
                                ------- -------   -------
    Consolidated                $9,686  $8,960      $726    8%
                                ======= =======   =======


    Operating income (loss) as
     a percentage of revenues     Three Months Ended
                             September 30, June 30,
                                  2007      2007   Change
    ICO Europe                      5%      7%       (2%)
    ICO Asia Pacific                7%      9%       (2%)
    ICO Polymers North
     America                       17%     14%        3%
    ICO Brazil                      1%      2%       (1%)
    Total ICO Polymers              7%      8%       (1%)
    Bayshore Industrial            15%     13%        2%
    Consolidated                    8%      8%        0%

I sold today at the gap. They claim that most of the gains come from the cheaper dollar valuation. Gross margin decreased, but the operating margin grew. It may still be attractive.

David, could you please take a look at the earnings numbers and see if ICOC presents a value stock at this point?

Thanks a lot!
berloga

ICO, Inc. Announces Record Financial Results for Fourth Quarter Ended September 30, 2007
Thursday , December 06, 2007 19:25ET

HOUSTON, Dec. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ICO, Inc. (Nasdaq: ICOC), global producer of custom polymer powders and plastic film concentrates, today announced its results for the year ended September 30, 2007 and the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2007.

    Fourth Quarter Highlights
    -- Record quarterly revenues of $123.6 million, an increase of
       $36.3 million or 42% from the prior year
    -- Volume growth of 12% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006
    -- Record quarterly operating income of $9.7 million, up 75%
       year-over-year
    -- Income per share from continuing operations of $.22 fully diluted
    -- Outlook remains positive


Fourth Quarter 2007 vs. Fourth Quarter 2006

Revenues increased $36.3 million or 42%, compared to the same quarter in the prior year, to $123.6 million. An increase in volumes sold of 12% led to an increase in revenues of $18.0 million, or 50% of the revenue increase. Volume improvements were driven by growth in Asia Pacific and Europe, where market demand has increased, as well as Bayshore Industrial, our North American compounding operation. Increases in average selling prices primarily caused by changes in product sales mix caused revenues to increase $12.8 million. In addition, stronger foreign currencies compared to the U.S. Dollar increased revenues by $5.5 million.

The growth in revenues led to an increase in gross profit of $5.3 million over the same quarter in fiscal 2006, or 33%, to $21.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2007. Gross margins declined from 18.4% to 17.3% due to a change in product and service sales mix. Sales, general and administrative expenses ("SG&A") increased $1.6 million due to higher employee compensation and benefit costs and the effect of stronger foreign currencies. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A dropped to 8.3% from 9.9%, primarily due to the change in product and service sales mix. Operating income for the quarter was $9.7 million, an increase of $4.2 million or 75%. Operating income margins improved to 7.8%, compared to 6.3% last year. Income from continuing operations increased $2.8 million (85%) to $6.0 million, or $.22 per fully diluted share, as a result of the improved operating income.

The quarter included $0.3 million of income included in impairment, restructuring and other costs on the face of the income statement. This amount included $0.9 million for a gain relating to insurance proceeds to be received for the fire damage sustained by our operation in New Jersey. This gain was partially offset by long-term asset impairments primarily related to certain equipment in Australia.

Fourth Quarter 2007 vs. Third Quarter 2007

Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007, revenues increased $10.2 million, or 9% largely due to a change in product mix. Also contributing to the revenue growth was a 5% sequential increase in sales and service volumes. The growth in volumes increased revenues by $2.0 million. A change in product and service sales mix increased revenues by $7.4 million, and the effect of stronger foreign currencies increased revenues by $0.8 million. The revenue increase led to an increase in gross profit of $0.8 million.

Similar to the year-over-year quarterly comparison, the sequential gross profit increase partially offset by higher SG&A expenses led to an increase in operating income of $0.7 million or 8%. As a result of the higher operating income in the fourth quarter, income from continuing operations increased $0.4 million or 7% to $6.0 million.

"We just completed another record-setting quarter," stated the Company's President and CEO, Mr. A. John Knapp, Jr., "driven by broad based profitability improvements as fourth quarter operating income for all of our business segments improved year-over-year. While we will see usual seasonal weakness in our next fiscal quarter, we expect that we will continue to see very satisfactory year-over-year revenue and diluted earnings per share growth in the quarter ended December 31, 2007."

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Our balance sheet remains in very good condition to support the continued growth of the Company. Available credit under committed credit facilities increased $15.1 million during the fourth quarter to $70.6 million. The strong earnings and a weaker U.S. Dollar increased stockholders' equity by $6.7 million during the quarter to $91.0 million as of September 30, 2007. Capital expenditures were $4.0 million during the fourth quarter and $11.6 million for fiscal year 2007.

&

ICOC: Q4 EPS 21c vs 5c Beats 15c Est
Friday , December 07, 2007 07:57ET

QUARTER RESULTS
ICO, Inc. (ICOC) reported Q4 results ended September 2007. Q4 Revenues were $123.56M; +41.65% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +22.20%. Q4 EPS was 21c; +320.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +40.00%.


YEAR-END RESULTS
Co. also reported Year-End results ended September 2007. FY Revenues were $417.92M; +28.86% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +5.68%. FY EPS was 76c; +105.41% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +24.59%.

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 05, 2007, 02:32:52 PM
I bought in this week at $10.98.  The valuation is much more attractive down here at $11.

Awesome timing buddjas1 :) Did you take profits on the gap up?

Quote from: berloga on December 07, 2007, 11:18:36 AM
I sold today at the gap. They claim that most of the gains come from the cheaper dollar valuation. Gross margin decreased, but the operating margin grew. It may still be attractive.

David, could you please take a look at the earnings numbers and see if ICOC presents a value stock at this point?

Thanks a lot!
berloga

I agree with you berloga, ICOC looks almost fully valued at current levels. I would take profits around this area as I've done in the past.

Upside issued a buy for ICOC  Tuesday. Their exit was very timely, I wonder how their re-entry will fare.

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 02, 2008, 01:31:12 PM
Upside issued a buy for ICOC  Tuesday. Their exit was very timely, I wonder how their re-entry will fare.

I guess I'll find out, cause I bought today also. ER Friday.

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 02, 2008, 01:31:12 PM
Upside issued a buy for ICOC  Tuesday. Their exit was very timely, I wonder how their re-entry will fare.

It looks like one can't win them all:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44822;image)

Investors really didn't like that earnings miss in fiscal 1st quarter, 2008:

(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=44823;image)

Hmm, management blamed the weakness on seasonality:

«"As expected, we experienced our usual seasonal weakness of the first quarter," stated A. John Knapp, Jr., the Company's President and CEO, "but due to the growth we experienced in the last two fiscal years, our first quarter fiscal 2008 operating income exceeded the operating income of the first quarter of the previous year by 51%. Our European and Bayshore Industrial business segments led the way to this increase. Thus far in the second quarter of fiscal 2008, we have indicators that demand will increase from the first quarter; and, we expect to see year-over-year revenue and operating income growth in our second quarter of fiscal 2008."»

Well, if this thing in bold happens ICOC will have an EPS of more than $0.25 in fiscal Q2 2008 (ended in March 31st). There weren't any pre-announcements or analysts downgrades (all analysts covering the stock rate it a "buy").

ICOC is trading at just 9 times the fiscal 2008 estimate and 8 times the 09 estimate (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ICOC). However, I see analysts here in my Thomson Analytics service with significantly higher estimates ($0.98 EPS expected for fiscal 09) - Yahoo numbers are incorrect, outdated.

I worry that if I buy ICOC this is another "buy because it is at a discount" play, which I said I would shy away after NVTL's loss. But, because I know the factors which influence ICOC's revenues and earnings reasonably well, I remember that resin prices play a major role in the company's fundamentals. I thought the discounted valuation could be due to lower resin prices due to the global economic slowdown, but no, resin prices are stable or higher in 2008:

http://www.plasticsexchange.com/default.aspx

However, they say end-user demand is soft (http://www.plasticsexchange.com/Research/WeeklyReview.aspx#Polyethylene).

The earnings release is in May, 5, so there are still two weeks.

I feel there's some upside in ICOC, but I'm not confident enough to recommend buying it for now. Maybe I'll be more secure if I can grab it more closer to the $6.65 support, that could limit the downside in case of another earnings miss.

Well, I'm not into buying discounts anymore. I prefer to pay a higher price for the best merchandise.